Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/09/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WE`LL SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH WITH A SOLID JOB
AT MOISTENING FROM MID LEVELS DOWN. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH 1/2 INCH...BUT 1 INCH VALUES ARE PUSHING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. CIRA LPW TOTALS SUGGEST WE ARE UP TO ABOUT .70 NOW WITH
INCREASING CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WE SHOULD HIT .75
OR .8 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER VALUES OVERNIGHT (OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR APRIL). THE HIGHEST EVER APRIL PRECIPITABLE
WATER MEASUREMENT FROM A SOUNDING IS 1.07...NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
AS EXPECTED INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW WITH LOTS
OF VIRGA MOISTENING UP THE SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT
IDEA THOUGH...ALONG WITH U OF A WRF TRENDS. INCREASING SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A BIT CONVECTIVE
TOMORROW...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES OVER THE
NEXT 30 HOURS AROUND .1 TO .3 OF AN INCH IN VALLEYS AND .6 TO 1 INCH
IN MOUNTAINS. LOTS OF OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE...SO LOCALLY HEAVIER
POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SLOPES.
AFTER A BREAK SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS LOOKING SOLID FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A COOLER SYSTEM...THIS ONE MIGHT SEE AN FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD BET. AFTER THAT...IT DEPENDS ON HOW THE RIDGE SETS UP IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT COULD ALLOW ANOTHER SYSTEM TO UNDERCUT LATE
NEXT WEEK...OR IT COULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW THAT EMPHASIZES
PLENTY OF WIND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLD
-SHRA POSSIBLE THRU 08/00Z...THEN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THEREAFTER THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MOST COVERAGE FROM KTUS NORTH AND
EASTWARD. SOME ISOLD -TSRA PSBL AS WELL ON FRIDAY. GUSTY SLY/SWLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFT 08/01Z WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 08/18Z...BECOMING SWLY 8-16
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WITH BREEZES. THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MEYER/LADER
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
604 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE GREATER BAY
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LINGERS INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
RENEWED RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 PM PDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PER THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. QPF TOTALS STILL LOOK
LIGHT AND GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS NOT ALL AREAS WILL
SEE MUCH TOTAL RAINFALL. SO FAR THE CLOSEST LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WITH SOME ACTIVITY STARTING TO FIRE IN
THE SIERRA AS WELL...MEANWHILE DOWN IN THE DESERTS OF CA AND AZ
QUITE A LIGHTNING SHOW IS UNDERWAY AS A RESULT OF THE SAME UPPER
LOW. NEXT LOW IS OFFSHORE AND WILL APPROACH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AS THIS OCCURS MODELS WANT TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND KEEP ISOLATED T-STORM THREAT GOING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (SANTA CLARA TO MONTEREY).
NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT SATURDAY BUT JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO HAMPER OUTDOOR PLANS AND JUSTIFY KEEPING AN UMBRELLA HANDY.
SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY
EXPECT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SUNSHINE BREAKS THAT WILL
LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER
THE HILLS.
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL STAY OFFSHORE BEFORE MAKING A BEELINE TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. END RESULT SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDS. THE GFS IS FASTER AND THE EURO A
LITTLE SLOWER. ECMWF DID BACK OFF SLIGHTLY WITH INTENSITY ON
LATEST 12Z RUN AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MID-RANGE FORECAST WITH INTEREST
FOR ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:04 PM PDT FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR DURING THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. LARGE
SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED APPROX 700 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS LOW
WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN LIGHT SE
WIND SATURDAY. VFR THIS EVENING TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING
LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
959 AM PDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. A MORE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY WITH MORE LIKELY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY AND THE NEXT WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED MONDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY COASTAL/VALLEY SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...BASED ON OBS/RADAR. RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH
TRACE TO 0.04 INCHES ACCUMULATION SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. THE LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO
THE REST OF THE SERVICE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AS THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FURTHER...MORE RAINFALL WILL REACH THE
SURFACE. WRF AND HRRR FOCUS THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH AMOUNTS OF
0.10-0.25 INCHES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.
/GREGORIA
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST... WITHOUT MUCH SUN TEMPS WILL BE WAY DOWN
FROM WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES LOWER IN SOME
AREAS. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION AND
TEMPORARILY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A DEEPER...MORE INTENSE TROUGH MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THIS ONE HAS MORE COLD AIR AND
ORGANIZATION. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MAIN
BAND OF RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WILL WAIT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY PORTION BELOW FOR MORE ON
AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. THAT STORM WILL MOVE OUT ON
SUNDAY. BUT BEFORE WE CAN EVEN DRY OUT...HERE COMES THE NEXT STORM
WHICH LOOKS WEAKER ON MONDAY. NOT AS MUCH RAIN...SNOW OR WIND. JUST
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY BUT WEDNESDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY. MAYBE ONLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THEN. THE GFS AND EURO MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
REAL POWERFUL DIGGING TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING OFF WHAT WOULD BE AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM.
STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION... 071525Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL NEAR THE COAST AND MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS
AOA 5000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI MORNING. INCREASING -SHRA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING ISOLATED THIS EVENING. VIS LOCALLY REDUCED TO
5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT MSL
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 8000 FT MSL THROUGH
FRI MORNING. SCT -SHRA WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SHRA
BECOMING ISOLATED TONIGHT. COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS MAY BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES IN CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
840 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND CHOPPY SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BEACHES... 840 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
SURF WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY FROM 280 DEGREES AND 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&
HYDROLOGY...
NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THAT IS WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MORE FOCUSED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION ALONG WITH THAT BAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR IN THOSE THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCAL SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING MAY OCCUR. AMOUNTS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE COASTAL
BASIN AND ONE TO TWO PLUS INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS WILL
FALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...GROGORIA/MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AN UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ONSHORE FLOW IS CEMENTING ITS PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOS ANGELES SPINS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW IS TRENDING STRONGLY
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REVERSAL TAKES PLACE. KLAX-KDAG
AND KSMX-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING BETWEEN 4
AND 6 MB ONSHORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE
REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ITS
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP. ONE AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE MARINE LAYER, SHALLOWLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING COULD LIFT AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL
TIME HEIGHT SECTION DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MOVING OVER THE
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
NEAR 22N AND 121W COULD SCRAPE THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAP
1000-500 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE NEGATIVE WITH THIS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND RAP CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 420 J/KG. WHILE MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS PUSH THE VORT MAX INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS DID TREND TO BRING THE
FEATURE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
ALL MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL IN LINE AND AGREE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE THE ONE OFFSHORE. AS THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE MOVE ASHORE ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM A
FEATURE CURRENTLY NEAR 32N AND 143W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE INCREASED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE PWATS ARE A
HEALTHY 1.25 INCHES...ANY LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST A HEAR-BUT-NOT- THERE AND OFF-AND-ON-AGAIN SHOWERY REGIME
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE
IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY.
WITH ALL THAT SAID HOWEVER...SYSTEMS OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKE
THIS HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF SURPRISES IN THE PAST...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE COAST/VALLEYS
(0.01-0.25 INCHES) AND THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (0.25-0.75 INCHES).
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS THE BEST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 7,500 FEET FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST ON
SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS
SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE THAN
THE FIRST...WITH PRELIMINARY TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER THE
COAST/VALLEYS...AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 6,000 FOOT RANGE WHICH MEANS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RESORTS...BUT MAJOR
MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ON TAP AGAIN. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE NEXT 7...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS MONDAY`S LOW
ENOUGH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL TROUGH
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES ABOUND TO NO SURPRISE...WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY HAS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
07/0600Z
AT 0530Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE NEAR 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS AS MANY LAYERS OF CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES
THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 18Z-00Z.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
FROM 18Z-00Z.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
FROM 18Z-00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
06/800 PM
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. UNTIL
THEN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AN UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ONSHORE FLOW IS CEMENTING ITS PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOS ANGELES SPINS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW IS TRENDING STRONGLY
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REVERSAL TAKES PLACE. KLAX-KDAG
AND KSMX-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING BETWEEN 4
AND 6 MB ONSHORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE
REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ITS
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP. ONE AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE MARINE LAYER, SHALLOWLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING COULD LIFT AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL
TIME HEIGHT SECTION DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MOVING OVER THE
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
NEAR 22N AND 121W COULD SCRAPE THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAP
1000-500 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE NEGATIVE WITH THIS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND RAP CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 420 J/KG. WHILE MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS PUSH THE VORT MAX INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS DID TREND TO BRING THE
FEATURE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
ALL MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL INLINE AND AGREE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE THE ONE OFFSHORE. AS THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE MOVE ASHORE ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM A
FEATURE CURRENTLY NEAR 32N AND 143W. A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE INCREASED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE PWATS ARE A
HEALTHY 1.25 INCHES...ANY LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST A HEAR-BUT-NOT- THERE AND OFF-AND-ON-AGAIN SHOWERY REGIME
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE
IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY.
WITH ALL THAT SAID HOWEVER...SYSTEMS OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKE
THIS HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF SURPRISES IN THE PAST...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE COAST/VALLEYS
(0.01-0.25 INCHES) AND THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (0.25-0.75 INCHES).
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS THE BEST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 7,500 FEET FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST ON
SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS
SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE THAN
THE FIRST...WITH PRELIMINARY TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER THE
COAST/VALLEYS...AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 6,000 FOOT RANGE WHICH MEANS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RESORTS...BUT MAJOR
MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ON TAP AGAIN. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE NEXT 7...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS MONDAYS LOW
ENOUGH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL TROUGH
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES ABOUND TO NO SURPRISE...WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY HAS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...06/0000Z.
AT 00Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE NEAR 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION, LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT
THROUGH 03Z AND IMPROVE ONE CATEGORY THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH 10Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION, WHILE SPREADING TO TERMINAL NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND INTO VALLEY TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS OPTIMISTIC FOR CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULDLINGER
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KLAX...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE, IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 10Z, OR
15Z AT THE LATEST. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY.
KBUR...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. OTHERWISE, IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...06/800 PM.
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. UNTIL
THEN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
528 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO
BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-
VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
* A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY.
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE
COAST BY MID WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S
FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND...SOME OF THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE IS STARTING TO SIGNAL THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS FURTHER S. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FURTHER S THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE CANADIAN GGEM FURTHEST
S. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS PRECIP AS FAR N AS THE MASS PIKE...AN
OVERALL AVERAGE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N CT/S RI INTO S COASTAL MA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MODELS
ALSO PUSHING THIS LOW OFFSHORE FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF A BIT QUICKER. BEST QPF WILL
OCCUR DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER FROM NEAR THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S
VINEYARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING.
OVERALL QPF EXPECTED TO BE FROM 0.1 INCHES OR LESS FROM NEAR THE
MASS PIKE UP TO PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN...RANGING TO ABOUT 0.25
INCHES FROM AROUND KIJD-KPVD-KEWB...THEN UP CLOSE TO 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND THE ISLANDS.
DID USE WET BULB TEMPS TO HELP DETERMINE TRANSITION OVER TO -SN
BUT JUST NOT QUITE ENOUGH QPF LEFT. WHILE MANY SPOTS MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT/N RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...IF THAT
HAPPENS.
WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET EARLY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO N-NW
WINDS.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT E COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT. PLEASE SEE THE
TIDAL AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE BY SUN MORNING...WITH MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W. NW WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY WILL BACK TO W-SW AND DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 40S..EXCEPT UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH
SE. PRECIP MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY DURING SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AS THE PRECIP COMMENCES...SO WILL
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MIXED
RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE SHORE. THE SNOW WILL START BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E. DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS...THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE...THEN LESS
THAN A INCH ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE THOUGH...WILL SEE THE SNOW CHANGE
QUICKLY OVER TO RAIN FROM S-N BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL
NOT LAST LONG EITHER AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS S-SW WINDS PICK UP. AS THE
FRONT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW...IT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME TIMING ISSUES AT PLAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY...SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING
THERE. AT THIS POINT...MAY SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS DURING TUE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT SO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED...BUT MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA.
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN
AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND
MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
ALONG THE S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START
SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.
TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY
SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME
DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN
FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND
DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
449 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO
BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-
VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
* A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY.
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE
COAST BY MID WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S
FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
DAILIES...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA.
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN
AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND
MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
ALONG THE S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START
SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.
TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY
SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME
DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN
FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND
DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGHB NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARION
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GARDEN-VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASUREABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE
* WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
OVERVIEW...
BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH
ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT
WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DAILIES...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND
EAST TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN
THE PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW
FEET AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM
-RA OR - SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT
NIGHT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND
SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND
CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND
DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND DOES
PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGHB NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARION
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GARDEN-VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASUREABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE
* WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
OVERVIEW...
BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH
ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT
WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DAILIES...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND
EAST TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN
THE PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW
FEET AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM
-RA OR - SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT
NIGHT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH
THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY HIGH END
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED
BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL
APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY OPEN COASTLINE AND LIKELY CAUSE
OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST
ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND
DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH
COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE
THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF
SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START
TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SEEM TO BE
TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER N OR NNE GRADIENT WITH TIME...AND ISSUANCE OF COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
FOR THE MA EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL
TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.
WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS THREAT LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. EXPECT UNSETTLED AND
COOL CONDITIONS AS COLD POOL OF AIR REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE SURFACE
INVERSION...GENERALLY AROUND 925-950 MB. ALB SOUNDING HAD 40
KNOTS...OKX SOUNDING HAD 45 KNOTS...CHATHAM SOUNDING HAD 55 KNOTS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 55-60F WERE NEEDED TO ELIMINATE THE
INVERSION. THIS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT OF ANY
SHOWERS AS SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM IS TRANSFERRED TO THE
SURFACE. MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURENCE CONTINUES TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MODELS SHOWED THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 50 KNOTS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE CORE GROWS TO 60
KNOTS AS IT SHIFTS OVER CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND 75
KNOTS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CT/CENTRAL MASS WILL EXPAND
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NY/PA MOVES EAST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND EARLY TONIGHT AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEASONALLY
HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE SPEED OF MOTION OF THE SHOWERS DOESN/T POINT TO A
GENERAL FLOOD THREAT...BUT POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE USUAL LOCATIONS.
CHANGES...
WE HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST WINDS A LITTLE...AND BECAUSE
OF THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER MOST OF RI AND
EASTERN MASS. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CT/WESTERN MASS
ESPECIALLY IN ANY SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING LOWER VALUES THAN AREAS
FARTHER EAST DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM WERE MOSTLY 3-5F WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. WE
BUMPED FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. BUT CONSENSUS WOULD
BRING A COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE CT VALLEY AROUND 8PM/00Z AND THE
HILLS/EAST BY MIDNIGHT/04Z. A SECOND COLD FRONT LAGS THE FIRST BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS.
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH...AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL
KEEP CLOUDS OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK...SOME OF WHICH MAY EDGE INTO
OUR AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF RI AND CENTRAL MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE
* WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
OVERVIEW...
BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH
ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT
WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BELIEVE FRIDAY TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERY WEATHER THANKS TO COLD CORE
LOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED A CHC OF POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING LOW...RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20-30 MPH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN RAIN AND
FOG. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS. WINDS AT
2000 FEET AGL WILL BE 50-60 KNOTS...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WINDS ABOVE THE CT
VALLEY MAY BE A LITTLE LESS...MORE LIKE 40-50 KNOTS...BUT STILL
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH TO OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SHOULD BRING
CIGS AND VSBYS UP TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN -
SHRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST
TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WIND
SPEEDS REACHING 35-40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-12 FEET ON THE
SOUTH-EXPOSED WATERS. LOCALLY POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. COULD ALSO BE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
RESULTING IN GUSTY WSW WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS. LOW PROB FOR A FEW
GALES. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN THE
PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW FEET
AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM -RA OR -
SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT NIGHT/SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH
THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY HIGH END
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED
BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL
APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY OPEN COASTLINE AND LIKELY CAUSE
OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST
ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND
DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH
COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE
THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF
SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START
TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SEEM TO BE
TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER N OR NNE GRADIENT WITH TIME...AND ISSUANCE OF COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
FOR THE MA EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL
TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.
WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS THREAT LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN SUNDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP ALL THE WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. LOW PRES NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE N THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. STRENGTHENING
SLY FLOW TRANSLATES INTO BL WINDS IN THE 40-50KT RANGE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DAMPENING DUE TO THE MARINE
INFLUENCE...MECHANICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THIS
SOMEWHAT. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYERED 50+ KT WINDS SHOULD HELP
TO OFFSET ANY PRECIPITATION DRAG AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND
QUEENS.
ADJUSTED CAT POPS TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS...AND HI RES GUIDANCE. HRRR AND 06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION WITH SHOWERS TRACKING NORTHWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC LIKELY IMPACTING LONG ISLAND AND SE CT THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ENTERING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE COUPLED JET IN THE AREA. MAINTAINED THE ISOLD
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO T/TD/WINDS BASED ON LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER DUE TO
COMPENSATION SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
THEREAFTER... A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE RIGHT THRU THE DAY ON FRI
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. GFS H925-H85 LAPSE
RATES FRI AFTERNOON CLOSE TO DRY ADIABATIC. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND ONLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVG DUE TO DEEP APRIL
MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY TROUGHING IN
THE EAST...DUE TO A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND...AND A
SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST. THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN...MAINLY THOUGH THE
WEEKEND...WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL AS A CUTOFF LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM ERN CANADA MOVES THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND ON SAT. THE OVERALL H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
BEGINNING MONDAY...WHICH IS AFFECTING THE DETAILS OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI EVE WILL DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND INTO SUN. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY
10-20 DEGREES BELOW OVER THE WEEKEND...ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE SIGNALING LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING OVER OR JUST S OF THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...THE WET BULB EFFECT FROM FALLING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 30S AREA WIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AN LIGHT ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING DEPARTING LOW. WARM AIR
ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT. TEMPS COULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON MON FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...BUT THEY ARE TOUGH TO GET
THROUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE PARENT LOW PRES TRACKING W OF
THE APPALACHIANS...UNLESS YOU HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THERE
CURRENTLY IS NO INDICATION OF A DAMMING HIGH TO THE N BUT IF THIS
DOES END UP DEVELOPING IT WILL BE REALLY TOUGH FOR THIS BOUNDARY
TO PASS THROUGH.
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE
NIGHT..WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR TO GET STARTED...THEN MVFR DEVELOPS BY AROUND MIDDAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY LATE MORNING KGON. IFR IS PROBABLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO VFR LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW GUSTY IT WILL
BE FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT KSWF INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT S-SE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT BY MID-LATE MORNING
WITH 20-25KT GUSTS...THEN SE WINDS AROUND 15-25G25-35KT BY AROUND
MIDDAY. ISOLATED PEAK GUSTS COULD BE 5-10 KT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
IN THE TAFS. WINDS DECREASE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SSW THEN SW...WITH GUSTS ABATING DURING THE EVENING.
WIND GUSTS RETURN 8-10Z AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WSW-W WITH GUSTS
15-25KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCST CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. WSW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW. E WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW MAINLY IN
THE EVENING...THEN VFR. NE-NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS. SW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY FLOW INCREASES THU THE DAY AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS. THE GALES COME DOWN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WSW. SCA WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN HOWEVER RIGHT THRU FRI. ON
THE PROTECTED WATERS...WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON
FRI...PARTICULARLY ON THE ERN SOUND.
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ON ALL WATERS FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. THEY COULD BRIEFLY
FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON SAT BUT WILL RAMP BACK UP BEHIND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN
BY SUN EVE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ON MON COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS BACK
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. SOME
MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE PEAK WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL LINE
UP WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALIZED TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT ALONG
THE S SHORE BAYS IF ENOUGH WATER REMAINS TRAPPED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...24/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
737 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 05Z
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE
STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROD ABOVE A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS.
WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN
CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
INTRUSION OF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S
NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COOL MID-APRIL MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. METRO
AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. THIS
IS SOME 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO ENJOY
THE COOLER WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN. WE WILL WARM QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMS. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.
MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN
ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS
AND HARBORS...AND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES
OF WIND EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT USHERING IN A COOLER BUT DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOST LOCATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35%
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL JUST A BIT
SHY OF 15 MPH... ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING
INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 73 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 60 77 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 55 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 59 73 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 52 74 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 61 74 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
348 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. THE MODIFIED REX BLOCK
CONFIGURATION OVER THE PACIFIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW FULLY EVOLVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
FORCED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW
RAPIDLY EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. THIS
DRYING IS SHOWN WELL IN NWP CROSS SECTION FORECASTS AND SHOULD BE
SAMPLED WELL WITH THE EVENING KTBW RAOB. YET ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DURING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS ENERGY AND THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...ITS PASSAGE WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SET UP A COOL
WEEKEND FOR APRIL AROUND THESE PARTS.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...MOVING SOUTH OF LEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR ALL ZONES
GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR FRIDAY...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MAKES
ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FORECAST OVERALL IS RATHER BENIGN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...GIVING WAY TO A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT.
SREF/NARRE ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
AFTER 09Z OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY LOOKS VERY PLEASANT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND. DECENT DIURNAL MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
12-13C RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEACHES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY EVENING EVERYONE!
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
RAIN CHANCES ARE NON- EXISTENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING BELOW WITH IT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER AS IS COMMON FOR APRIL.
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLOW
BECOMES MORE EAST TO SE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS WE WILL
SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE
AND NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING IN DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT IS JUST CROSSING
SOUTH OF KFMY/KRSW SHIFTING THEIR WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND KLAL/KPGD TOWARD DAWN
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION
OF FRIDAY AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS SECOND FRONT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35% RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
SPOTS RECEIVE BORDERLINE INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 78 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 83 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 75 59 75 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 58 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 78 62 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
852 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
842 PM CDT
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. STRONG VORT
DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIGHT
CIRCULATION EVEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVE OVER KMKX RADAR SITE AT
840 PM. SEVERAL OBS OF LESS THAN HALF MILE VIS WITH THIS INTENSE
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN A QUICK INCH IN 30 MINUTES
REPORTED IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN IL PRIMARILY
FROM ABOUT I-39 EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO ABOVE 700
MB...AND 50+ J/KG OF CAPE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTERWARD IN COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND COLD AIR MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER RELATIVELY
MILDER LAKE WATERS.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
SAME OLD PATTERN CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT RESULTING IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WDLY SCT -SHSN. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...VSBY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LOWER POSSIBLY...ALONG WITH
STRONG GUSTY NE WINDS. THE PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS IMMEDIATE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BE A BIT EAST OF DUE NORTH...THOUGH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL
BACK TO MORE NNW. LIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST FOR A LAKE
BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
425 PM CDT
A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY
DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN
WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE
NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE
A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT
GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
656 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
SAME OLD PATTERN CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT RESULTING IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WDLY SCT -SHSN. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...VSBY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LOWER POSSIBLY...ALONG WITH
STRONG GUSTY NE WINDS. THE PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS IMMEDIATE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BE A BIT EAST OF DUE NORTH...THOUGH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL
BACK TO MORE NNW. LIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST FOR A LAKE
BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
425 PM CDT
A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY
DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN
WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE
NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE
A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT
GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
100 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO
CONTINUE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SHAVE A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS.
A ONCE AGAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD UPPER LOW...WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE 925MB TEMPERATURES MEASURED ON 12Z RAOBS WERE -2C AT DVN AND
-4C AT GRB WHICH IS ABOUT THE 10TH LOWEST PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR. THIS COLD ADVECTION IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINS THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. SUCH SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PARTS OF THE AREA THE PAST
HOUR TO TWO AND ONE BRIEFLY BROUGHT ORD DOWN TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY
EARLIER. RAP PREDICTED CAPE OF 25-50 J/KG DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS
AS ROBUST OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL COULD
GET SOME QUICK VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
GRAUPEL IF NOT SNOW (HAD A REPORT OF THAT EARLIER FROM GURNEE
ILLINOIS).
FORECAST HIGHS ARE 40 TO 45 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR
OBSERVED REGIONAL 925MB TEMPERATURES NOTED ABOVE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...IN THE
WAKE HAS BEEN A COOL/MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER WAVE WAS
BEGINNING TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT HAS TAKEN ON SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING...AND COUPLED
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE BETWEEN
10 TO 20 MPH HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE BETTER
PARCEL LIFT...AND AS ELUDED TO EARLIER CONCERNING A WEAKLY FORCED
INVERTED TROUGH...THE ABILITY TO LIFT THE PARCEL HAS DIMINISHED AND
IS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN OR IN SOME LOCATIONS LGT
SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SOLID LIFT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SNOW GROWTH WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA AND ALONG THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST COLD AIR PUSH. THE THICK CLOUD
COVER WILL INHIBIT ANY SIZEABLE WARMING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL TRY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY ALONG
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTN AND COULD PULL COOLER AIR
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS SUCH AS WAUKEGAN TO CHICAGO AND HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIFT LATER TODAY...GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND EVEN CHANCES. HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTN.
WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE MID-LVLS HOLDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSHES EAST EARLY FRI. SO EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO
REMAIN DRY WITH SOME THINNING TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A LOBE OF VORTICITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI...AND AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE CONTINUED SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WILL SEE INCREASED PARCEL LIFT AND LIKELY BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRI...THEN SLOWLY WARM TO
SUPPORT MAINLY LGT RAIN BY EARLY FRI AFTN.
HEADING INTO FRI EVENING THE STRONGER VORT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN WISC WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR. THERMAL TROUGH AT
850MBCONTINUES TO BE PROGGED IN THE -8 TO -14 DEG C RANGE BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO LGT SNOW
LATE FRI EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LGT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND A DUSTING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD APPROACH AN INCH.
FORTUNATELY THE DURATION OF LGT SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A
CANADIAN SFC RIDGE DIVES SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY AND COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AND STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THE THERMAL TROUGH
OF -8 TO -12 DEG C WILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY COOL SAT. HIGHS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN
BY SAT NGT AND SHIFTS THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE
STEADILY ADVECTING NORTH BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE SUN NGT...SO
HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF ISO THUNDER. TEMPS SHUD APPROACH 50 TO
THE MID 50S BY SUN AFTN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL
SPREAD IN THE MON/TUE PERIODS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT WEAKENING THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. LINGERING TROUGHING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS
LIKELY. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE
AMONGST SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT WEAK
RIDGING MAY ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AFTER THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTN/EVE...BROAD SFC
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER TUE/WED. THIS
WOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS SOME WEAK
RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SEASONAL IN THE EXTENDED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAFS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
GRAUPEL IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS
TURNING MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN
IMPACTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE A
FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. WITH THE COLD ATMOSPHERE
ALOFT THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL OR EVEN LIGHT
SNOW. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY 38 OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH
GRAUPEL OR RAIN IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAN ANY SNOW.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. AS CAN OFTEN BE THE CASE
WITH NEAR DUE NORTH WINDS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...ARE
ANTICIPATING THEM TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS IS VERY
LOW...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO STILL HAVE 10KT OR HIGHER WINDS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE SHIFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK WEST
AND LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT ONE SPREADING IN
LIFT AND MOISTURE ALOFT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT THERE
TO BE AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD AND
ARRIVING IN ROCKFORD A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CHICAGO AT OR
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TYPE IS MORE FAVORED TO BE SNOW BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE AND COULD AT LEAST START AS RAIN OR A MIX. ALL IN
ALL THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER THAN TWO OR
THREE HOURS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 35 KT GALES SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1035 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO
CONTINUE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SHAVE A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS.
A ONCE AGAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD UPPER LOW...WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE 925MB TEMPERATURES MEASURED ON 12Z RAOBS WERE -2C AT DVN AND
-4C AT GRB WHICH IS ABOUT THE 10TH LOWEST PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR. THIS COLD ADVECTION IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINS THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOW-LEVEL RAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. SUCH SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PARTS OF THE AREA THE PAST
HOUR TO TWO AND ONE BRIEFLY BROUGHT ORD DOWN TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY
EARLIER. RAP PREDICTED CAPE OF 25-50 J/KG DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS
AS ROBUST OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL COULD
GET SOME QUICK VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
GRAUPEL IF NOT SNOW (HAD A REPORT OF THAT EARLIER FROM GURNEE
ILLINOIS).
FORECAST HIGHS ARE 40 TO 45 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR
OBSERVED REGIONAL 925MB TEMPERATURES NOTED ABOVE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...IN THE
WAKE HAS BEEN A COOL/MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER WAVE WAS
BEGINNING TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT HAS TAKEN ON SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING...AND COUPLED
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE BETWEEN
10 TO 20 MPH HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE BETTER
PARCEL LIFT...AND AS ELUDED TO EARLIER CONCERNING A WEAKLY FORCED
INVERTED TROUGH...THE ABILITY TO LIFT THE PARCEL HAS DIMINISHED AND
IS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN OR IN SOME LOCATIONS LGT
SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SOLID LIFT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SNOW GROWTH WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA AND ALONG THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST COLD AIR PUSH. THE THICK CLOUD
COVER WILL INHIBIT ANY SIZEABLE WARMING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL TRY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY ALONG
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTN AND COULD PULL COOLER AIR
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS SUCH AS WAUKEGAN TO CHICAGO AND HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIFT LATER TODAY...GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND EVEN CHANCES. HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTN.
WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE MID-LVLS HOLDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSHES EAST EARLY FRI. SO EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO
REMAIN DRY WITH SOME THINNING TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A LOBE OF VORTICITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI...AND AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE CONTINUED SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WILL SEE INCREASED PARCEL LIFT AND LIKELY BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRI...THEN SLOWLY WARM TO
SUPPORT MAINLY LGT RAIN BY EARLY FRI AFTN.
HEADING INTO FRI EVENING THE STRONGER VORT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN WISC WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR. THERMAL TROUGH AT
850MBCONTINUES TO BE PROGGED IN THE -8 TO -14 DEG C RANGE BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO LGT SNOW
LATE FRI EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LGT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND A DUSTING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD APPROACH AN INCH.
FORTUNATELY THE DURATION OF LGT SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A
CANADIAN SFC RIDGE DIVES SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY AND COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AND STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THE THERMAL TROUGH
OF -8 TO -12 DEG C WILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY COOL SAT. HIGHS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN
BY SAT NGT AND SHIFTS THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE
STEADILY ADVECTING NORTH BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE SUN NGT...SO
HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF ISO THUNDER. TEMPS SHUD APPROACH 50 TO
THE MID 50S BY SUN AFTN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL
SPREAD IN THE MON/TUE PERIODS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT WEAKENING THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. LINGERING TROUGHING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS
LIKELY. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE
AMONGST SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT WEAK
RIDGING MAY ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AFTER THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTN/EVE...BROAD SFC
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER TUE/WED. THIS
WOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS SOME WEAK
RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SEASONAL IN THE EXTENDED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER FAR NERN IL AND INTO NWRN
IN...BUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SATURATED
LOWER LEVELS...PCPN HAS LARGELY TRANSITIONED OVER TO MORE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. CIGS HAVE SETTLED INTO MVFR RANGES. WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER CIGS AND THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE NO
LONGER SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS...HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF IFR CIGS FROM THE TAFS. EXPECT THAT THE GENERAL TREND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE. EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOME
DAYTIME WARMING OCCURS AT THE SFC...WHILE THE COLD CORE TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SET UP AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THAT
SHRA SHOULD BE SCT...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AT
THIS POINT. WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES OVER THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SOME GUSTINESS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH NWLY WINDS OCNL GUSTING AS HIGH AS
20-25 KT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO VEER
BRIEFLY TO NNELY AT ORD/MDW/GYY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT BACK TO NWLY-WLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 35 KT GALES SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
929 PM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS TO SLOW TEMP DECREASE THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING
AND TO ADJUST HOURLY POP GRIDS PER RADAR TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO OVERALL CHARACTER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST.
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS CLASSIC WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN IL AND
NORTHWEST IN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY
DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
HOWEVER...MAINTAINING PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WI/FAR EASTERN IA
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES AND MAINTAINS
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF OUR LIGHT PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...SLOW COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR
KEEPING PRECIP ALL RAIN...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRYING ABOVE
ABOUT 800 MB PER RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS BY MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS AND THEREFORE ANY MIX OF WET SNOW
SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID-30S OR BETTER COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP AND MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENT BLOCKY UPPER
PATTERN WITH DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
311 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN PRECIP SHIELD STILL SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST...STILL IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS GREATER ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THIS PRECIP SHIELD EXIT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONGER VORT LOBE. THIS REINFORCING ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE
SCATTERED/SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH BETTER
FOCUSING EXITING ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...OVERALL COVERAGE
OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND DO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO LOW
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WITH
THIS IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION. LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WITH THESE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE. PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN OR EVEN BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME...DONT ANTICIPATE THIS TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTS A RETURN TO RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING P-TYPE FORECASTS. ON FRIDAY...A
STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DRIVING H85 TEMPS FROM AROUND
-7C FRIDAY TO NEAR -15C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTS IN BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER THAT MAY NOT SUPPORT
COMPLETE MELTING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WINTRY PRECIP TYPE
CHANCES. THE UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WITH A WEAK TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL. LES
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HELPS
TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS.
BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...HOWEVER CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING THAT WARM OF
TEMPS...THUS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER BUT
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE. CIGS
REMAIN A MIXED BAG OF HIGHER END MVFR AND LOWER END VFR WITH
RAGGED BASES...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TOWARD A
PERIOD OF LOWERING CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SO...HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
CIGS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THE IFR OCCURRING...
BUT IF THE DRIZZLE REMAINS PERSISTENT ST BASES SHOULD LOWER WITH
TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT OFF
THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25-30 KT ON THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 AND POSSIBLY 35 KT SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION...THEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY
BREEZE TO AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1109 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
The cold front that swept through our area during the day
bringing the rainfall and damaging wind gusts to extreme
southeast Illinois this afternoon, has shifted off to our east
early this evening. The latest water vapor loop indicates the
rather vigorous upper wave was progressing into Indiana with
several small bands of light rain tracking southeast into the
area. We should see these around central Illinois for a few more
hours before ending during the early morning hours. After that,
gusty northwest winds will bring in another batch of chilly air
for the next day with models indicating some very cold air aloft
streaming southeast into the area on Thursday. This may lead to
some widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially over far west central through southwest Illinois during
the afternoon. These may produce some small hail or graupel in a
few locations before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating
late in the afternoon or early evening.
Have already made some wording adjustments to the ZFP with the
last update sent out earlier in the evening. No other changes
have been made since then that would warrant another update at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over Lake Michigan, with
cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. Widespread
light to moderate rain continues to fall in the vicinity of the
boundary...primarily from just east of I-55 to the Indiana border.
Further west, the precipitation has ended across the Illinois River
Valley. The front will continue to progress eastward into Indiana
over the next few hours, with rain lingering across the far E/SE
KILX CWA through early evening. Meanwhile, an area of showers
beneath the trailing upper-level trough currently over eastern Iowa
will drop southeastward into central Illinois this evening. Based
on latest regional radar mosaic and HRRR forecast, have included low
chance PoPs for showers everywhere this evening, followed by a few
lingering showers across only the N/NE CWA after midnight. Will be
a breezy and cool night, with W/NW winds gusting to between 20 and
25 mph. Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s northwest of
the Illinois River, to the lower 40s south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Active northwest flow to continue a couple more days. Next clipper
system currently in northern Alberta will race southeast into
northern Minnesota by Thursday morning before weakening, while an
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes. The remnants of the
clipper are progged by most of the models to be accompanied by a
cold pocket of -30C air near 500 mb, which will track into west
central Illinois by Thursday afternoon. Have added some isolated
thunder into the southwest CWA forecast for the afternoon due to
this increased instability from the cold pocket. However, general
trend in the forecast was to reduce the overall PoP`s by about 20-
30%, concentrating the higher values over the southwest CWA (near
the clipper remnants) and the far northeast CWA (closer to the upper
trough). Kept isolated showers in between. A few showers will linger
into Thursday night as a surface boundary moves through. Next wave
will drop out of Ontario early Friday and race through the Midwest.
Little change in PoP`s for Friday, mainly concentrating them from
Bloomington to Lawrenceville eastward. With this fast flow, windy
conditions to continue for Thursday and especially Friday, when
gusts near 35 mph are likely.
Hard freeze threat continues to loom for Friday night, as 850 mb
temperatures dip to about -12C, near record lows for this time of
year. There is a bit of concern across the eastern CWA where skies
will be a bit slower to clear, but the strong cold-air advection may
overcome this. Continued with lows generally 25-30 degrees. Lower
30s likely in most areas Saturday night as well, but increasing
southerly flow will keep things a bit warmer across the west after
midnight.
Significant pattern shift on deck early next week as a split upper
flow converges over the central U.S. This will result in
temperatures returning closer to normal. While the longer range
models focus on an upper trough passing through Monday night and
Tuesday, the ECMWF is more prominent with digging it further south,
with temperatures cooler than the GFS. Both models maintain a cold
front moving through the area Sunday night and Monday, and have
increased PoP`s to the likely range (60-70%). With the deeper ECMWF,
it pushes the front fully through the area by Monday evening,
whereas the GFS lingers it and the associated rain about 6-12 hours
longer. Consequently, have kept some likely PoP`s over the southeast
into Monday night, with the remainder of the area drying out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Little change from earlier thinking, a mix of low VFR cigs with
periods of MVFR cigs along with isolated light showers into
Thursday morning. Forecast soundings suggest any MVFR cigs should
lift to VFR by afternoon with the better chances for rain west of
I-55, and even in that area, coverage appears to be too limited.
As a result, will handle that with VCSH at this time. Surface
winds will be west to northwest at 12 to 17 kts tonight with a
few gusts around 22 kts, especially at DEC and CMI. Look for
northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts on Thursday with gusts around
23 kts at times by late morning into the mid afternoon hours
before winds quickly subside to less than 10 kts just after 00z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER SAT 06Z. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
VFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHEN SNOW MIXES
IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
THOUGH AFTER SAT 07Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
744 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER SAT 06Z. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
VFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHEN SNOW MIXES
IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
THOUGH AFTER SAT 07Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON
CLEARING).
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER
WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH
MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY
AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN
OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE
3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE
LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE
EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/
EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR
THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT
WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA
SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24-
48 HRS.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE
70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT.
WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DEAL WITH A SOME WHAT SNOW SQUALL TYPE
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THIS BAND WILL ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MORE MINOR CHANGES TO DEAL WITH LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES
TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS
IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR
MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT
TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR
JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP
DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY
LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES
TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS
IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR
MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT
TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR
JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP
DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY
LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR
MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT
TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR
JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP
DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY
LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT
TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR
JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP
DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY
LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND
BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH HAVE ALLOWED ADDITIONAL MIXING
AND SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. AS SUCH UPGRADED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO A WIND ADVISORY AND ADDED A FEW COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS UPDATE
ACCOUNTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH. IN FACT
CLEARING HAS ALREADY WORKED INTO WAYNE COUNTY AS OF 1330Z. THE
CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW INCREASED MIXING AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. AS SUCH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
WITH WINDS BEING FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TODAY TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MATCH
UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS TONIGHT BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS.
ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS
TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES
FRIDAY MORNING...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS LIFTING OUT
OF OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
ZONE/ENHANCED MOISTURE/ PUSHING EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A DECENT MID LEVEL JET IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THE REGION
KEEPING WINDS GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE JET AXIS WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO DIVE INTO KENTUCKY
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROF AND SHIFT THE
TROF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT LAST UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FINAL UPPER
WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA BRINGING MORE RAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER...TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...AND THE -20C LEVEL WILL BE
UNUSUALLY LOW. WITH CONVECTIVE CURRENTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-20C...HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH MID 30S DURING THE
NIGHT...PRECIP WHICH LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS IS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH CLOUDS BREAKING
UP ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S...AND DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES OVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE SET UP FOR A VERY HARD
FREEZE IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
IF THOSE CLOUDS DO NOT SHOW BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY SHOULD BE
SEEN BY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD US. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED SO THAT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH. A
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGHEST POP BEING ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THIS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR MIDWEEK...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...STRONG GUST WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. WHERE THERE ARE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE
STRONGER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT SME AND
LOZ...WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS FURTHER NORTH.
WHILE SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106-107.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-113>118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS UPDATE
ACCOUNTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH. IN FACT
CLEARING HAS ALREADY WORKED INTO WAYNE COUNTY AS OF 1330Z. THE
CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW INCREASED MIXING AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. AS SUCH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
WITH WINDS BEING FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TODAY TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MATCH
UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS TONIGHT BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS.
ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS
TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES
FRIDAY MORNING...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS LIFTING OUT
OF OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
ZONE/ENHANCED MOISTURE/ PUSHING EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A DECENT MID LEVEL JET IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THE REGION
KEEPING WINDS GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE JET AXIS WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO DIVE INTO KENTUCKY
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROF AND SHIFT THE
TROF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT LAST UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FINAL UPPER
WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA BRINGING MORE RAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER...TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...AND THE -20C LEVEL WILL BE
UNUSUALLY LOW. WITH CONVECTIVE CURRENTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-20C...HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH MID 30S DURING THE
NIGHT...PRECIP WHICH LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS IS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH CLOUDS BREAKING
UP ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S...AND DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES OVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE SET UP FOR A VERY HARD
FREEZE IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
IF THOSE CLOUDS DO NOT SHOW BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY SHOULD BE
SEEN BY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD US. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED SO THAT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH. A
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGHEST POP BEING ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THIS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR MIDWEEK...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
LOW LEVELS HAVE SATURATED THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR VARIABLE CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS PASS THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS.
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
35 MPH IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106-107.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
616 PM UPDATE...LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY, WE SEE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN, THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT THE
STEADIEST RAIN TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH 1-2 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT WARM
TEMPERATURES, WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RIVERS RISING IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE, WITH ICE MOVEMENT POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHERN RIVERS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST MAINE AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
70 KTS WILL MAXIMIZE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THEREFORE,
RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
OVERNIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
DOWNEAST MAINE. AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER
BANGOR REGION INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR
THE CENTRAL PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW ON THE NOSE OF A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE BEING NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
RISES ON AREA RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, AS WELL AS
SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. (PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS). EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO OUR
NORTH.
THE NEXT CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AS
A 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE.
AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER BANGOR REGION INTO
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR.
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SHOWERS. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH A QUICK QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT GRAUPEL AND EVEN A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN
THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL
UNDER AN INCH. THE COLDER AIR WILL SLOW DOWN SNOW MELT IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS CLEARING
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. FURTHER
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHS
CLOSER TO 40F. LATER SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS
WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE
ALLAGASH TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. USING AN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE FOR THE STORM TRACK...THE NET RESULT IS A GLANCING BLOW
FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR EASTPORT AND CALAIS. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
A COOL AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING IN THE CROWN
OF MAINE AND INCREASING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS 40F IN ELLSWORTH AND
MACHIAS. WINDS WILL GUST TOWARDS 30 MPH WITH A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT INTO THE AREA. WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A SECOND LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL. MON MRNG THE WARM FRONT FRONT THE SECOND
LOW MOVES INTO SW MAINE AS THE HIGH RETREAT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
MID DAY MON THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO CNTRL ME...THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM NW ME TO THE OHIO RVR VLLY. MON EVNG THE COLD
FRONT MOVES TO NE ME...EXTENDS SW ALONG DOWNEAST ME INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. FROM MON EVNG TO TUES EVNG THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS...THE SYSTEMS LOW MOVES EAST INTO CNTRL
QUEBEC...WERE IT WILL CO-LOCATE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEEPING
THE AREA IN UNSETTLED WEATHER IN TO WED MRNG. BY WED AFTERNOON THE
LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE MARITIMES...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING THURS
MRNG INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BLOCKING SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA...CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NOT THE SAME BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...THE ECMWF RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY
FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT
ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
KBGR/KBHB THROUGH 06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM: LIKELY VFR TOWARDS BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTH OF HUL...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS
AND RAIN/SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
FINALLY BECOME VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO
BE VFR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 30 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FEET LATE TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO
SCA LEVELS DURING FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT THAT AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE NEEDED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL SCA WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SUNDAY AS WIND GUSTS REACH 30 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE PISCATAQUIS
RIVER BASIN. SOME RIVERS COULD RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. IN
ADDITION...ICE STILL REMAINS ON SOME OF THE RIVERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE...INCLUDING THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT ALONG WITH
THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO CLOSE COINCIDENCE OF NEW MOON AND MOONS PERIGEE.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS AT APPROXIMATELY
11:38 PM TONIGHT AT BAR HARBOR AND 11:48 PM AT EASTPORT. LARGEST
WAVES AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE.
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A STORM SURGE
OF APPROXIMATELY 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER LEVELS OF 14.0 TO 15.0 FEET RELATIVE TO MLLW. THIS
COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE DEER ISLE CAUSEWAY...
STONINGTON HARBOR...WINTER HARBOR AND IN THE VICINITY OF MACHIAS.
NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 18 FEET AND PERIODS OF 11 TO 12
SECONDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE STORM TIDE. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING RUNUP AND OVERTOPPING AT THE
SEAWALL ROAD...OTTER COVE...SCHOODIC POINT AND ROQUE BLUFFS. THIS
COULD DEPOSIT SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE ROCKS AND SMALL DEBRIS ON
ADJACENT ROADWAYS...LARGE VOLUMES OF WATER WASHING ONTO ROADWAYS
AND EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS IS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TO VEHICLES AND
PEDESTRIANS. EROSION OF BEACHES AND EXPOSED AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO WAVE ACTION.
THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ACTION AND FRESH WATER RUN OFF COULD ALSO
PRODUCE TIDAL FLOODING IN THE BANGOR AREA. WATER LEVEL IN BANGOR
COULD COME CLOSE TO 11.60 FEET AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA/MJ
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/MCW
MARINE...CB/DUDA/MCW
HYDROLOGY...DUDA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
520 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
525 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AT COASTAL AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...COASTAL AND INTERIOR
YORK...AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES. RAP AS WELL AS HRRR INDICATE GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 8 PM. PORTLAND IS CURRENTLY NEARING SUSTAINED 35 MPH. MOST
SITES WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH GUSTS
HOWEVER. MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS IN THE MISO/MESOSCALE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
OVER- SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL
LOOKING FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WHITES. SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING
OFF IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 800 AND
900 PM WITH PRECIP LIFTING OUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
WINDS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PEAK DURING THE THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL BE CONTINUING HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON NORTHERN RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAM SOME OF WHICH WILL APPROACH BANKFULL RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING. THIS WILL NOT BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR
VARIABLE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
LOW PRESSURE MON-TUE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR AS COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS REGION. COOLER BUT DRY END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT. VFR ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIELINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH 4 AM. WIDELY SCT STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLY LOW END GALES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM
SURGE THIS EVENING RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, (1158 PM IN PORTLAND HARBOR).
MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE
PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ020>022.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-013-014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1105 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS/TDS/POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
STEADIER MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING UP ACROSS
THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAX GUSTS COMING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY BUT EXPECT LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD WITH POSSIBLY A
LITTLE SPLASH-OVER ON EXPOSED BEACHES. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530AM UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR SKIRTING COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ALOFT AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS AND TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WHERE WARMING CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WE HAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE
HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH
GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WARM
ADVECTION FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU
MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL
CONTINUE THRU SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE
THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2
INCHES OF QPF WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO
FLOOD STAGE.
A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD
WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND
LESS WIND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I
FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS
MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND
40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT
THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE
MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES
OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND
GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE
AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE
NH BORDER.
FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS
ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS
AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A
MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI
PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER
ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD
AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT
THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK...
LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE
RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON
FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND
00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI.
LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE
LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN
PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR
STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO
PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM
TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE
WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH
WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ020>022.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
526 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
530AM UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR SKIRTING COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ALOFT AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS AND TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WHERE WARMING CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WE HAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE
HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH
GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WARM
ADVECTION FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU
MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL
CONTINUE THRU SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE
THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2
INCHES OF QPF WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO
FLOOD STAGE.
A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD
WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND
LESS WIND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I
FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS
MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND
40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT
THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE
MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES
OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND
GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE
AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE
NH BORDER.
FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS
ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS
AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A
MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI
PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER
ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD
AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT
THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK...
LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE
RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON
FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND
00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI.
LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE
LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN
PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR
STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO
PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM
TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE
WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH
WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ020>022.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
350 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE
WX. WE HAD SNWFL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FNT. WE HAVE NOW WORKED
INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WAA FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE
OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL
CONTINUE THRU SRN CANADA...AND A COLD FNT WILL SLOWLY EDGE EWD
INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FNT...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES FROM
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THE
GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE MTNS.
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2 INCHES OF QPE
WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO FLOOD STAGE.
A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC. WARM SLY FLOW OVER THE COLD WATER IS A
GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND LESS WIND AT
THE SFC. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS MORE SLY THAN SELY...I
FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS
TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME.
SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40
PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE
OF THE JET PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 50 KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH
HEAVY PRECIP IN THE AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY
INLAND FROM THERE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS
FROM PWM ON S TO THE NH BORDER.
FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS ERODE
THE COLDER SFC AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. COLD FNT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS AND KEEP
THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT. TEMP
TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRI IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI
PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER
ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD
AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT
THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK...
LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE
RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. RNFL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON
FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND
00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI.
LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE
LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN
PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR
STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO
PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM
TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE
WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH
WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ020>022.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SNOW WHITEN THE GROUND WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SIMILAR TO LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH. NO
SIGNS OF A PROLONG WARM UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP/ HRRR PROGS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 IN
PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD. HOWEVER AFTER REVIEW OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS NEXT TO NIL
DESPITE BEING IN A GENERAL THUNDER AREA DEFINED BY SPC. ELECTED TO
MAINTAIN A THUNDER FREE FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO CRASH TONIGHT ALONG WITH SPOKES
OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY THE TIME ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW...MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL RESIDE TO OUR EAST. AS
SUCH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION SAVE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN MARYLAND. MODELS APPEAR TO OVERCAST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH A
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN WHAT IS PREDICTED...THIS IS WHY WE
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE NCEP SUITE. BUFR SOUNDINGS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ILLUSTRATE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING YIELDING POTENTIALLY
DECENT SIZE WET SNOW FLAKES AROUND 6Z WHEN RAIN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW. WINDS WON`T CONTRIBUTE TO A HUGE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE...WHICH IS WHY AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR FRIDAY PASSAGE...WITH COLD FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THAT DISTURBANCE
SPAWNING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE RIDGES...AND
OVER ZONES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. AS ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THE GFS WAS USED IN GENERAL CONSTRUCTION OF THE PRECIP
DEPICTION FOR THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST...WHILE MODIFIED SOURCE
TEMPS WERE USED FOR SNOW RATIOS GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
VARIOUS MODEL/GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF TOTALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING SHORTWAVE INITIATES WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF IT. THAT WARMTH WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL WEATHER WITH THAT SYSTEMS
PASSAGE. GIVEN SHORTWAVE TIMING ISSUES AND CONVOLUTED FLOW
PATTERNS...SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LONG TERM FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW
TRAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HOLD PRIMARILY
TO MVFR...BUT COULD DROP TO IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH FROM 03Z TO
ABOUT 08Z...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ANY TIME.
.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...TAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH BAYFIELD COUNTY INTO WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY EARLIER TODAY
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS THE WIND HAS BACKED TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AT
DEVILS ISLAND...BUOY 45006 AND AT THE RAWS STATION ON SAND ISLAND.
WE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST...BACK INTO EASTERN ASHLAND AND OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTIES
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARNING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP BAYFIELD
COUNTY FROM THE WARNING PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND SEE ITS IMPACT ON THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS
EVENING.
AREAS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT.
WE WILL BE INCREASING THE COVERAGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 18Z
RUN OF THE GFS...12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS WERE
SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT
500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO
PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING
LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300
PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES.
STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING
DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR
TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY
00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE
50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER BAYFIELD AND
WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTIES. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
STRONG WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPS AS WELL...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
KHIB/KDLH/KINL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND MIXING DEEPENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 10 40 20
INL 7 34 25 41 / 10 20 40 40
BRD 15 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10
HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30
ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ002>004.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
900 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having
occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually
diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas
north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to
allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save
some pockets of the STL urban heat island.
A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures
making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening
and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging
as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE
Saturday evening.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
637 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening
and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging
as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE
Saturday evening.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Light northerly
winds initially will continue veering to the east overnight before
shifting to the southeast after 12z. Speeds will increase after
sunrise with sustained winds of 12-16 kts likely through the late
morning and afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...00z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with
light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the
southeast tomorrow by mid day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...00z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with
light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the
southeast tomorrow by mid day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 31 51 46 65 / 5 0 10 50
Quincy 23 48 42 64 / 5 0 20 60
Columbia 28 54 47 67 / 5 0 20 50
Jefferson City 27 56 48 69 / 5 0 20 50
Salem 27 48 39 64 / 10 0 10 50
Farmington 27 53 42 66 / 5 0 20 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102-103.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-104-105.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-038>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ037-043-053-
054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
326 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1151 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the
northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region.
Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from
northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak
instability and this activity will continue into parts of our
northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into
synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most
of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be
out of our area by 00z.
Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with
humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but
stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses.
Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential
Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER...REINFORCING SECONDARY FRONTS WILL FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT... AND AGAIN FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...
REST OF TODAY: COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA... CURRENTLY BISECTING CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT PACE AND NEAR
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT
BRUSHED ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN AND SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS... ALONG WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS
INCLUDING THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. BUT
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING... WITH A SECONDARY PEAK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SRN AND ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A WNW JET CORE OVER TN. MUCH DRIER
AIR HAS ARRIVED AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTIGATED BY
HEATING/MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PERSISTENT
HEIGHT FALLS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING... WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 65-72. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY: A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AND 50KT LLJ ARE DRIVING A BAND
OF CONVECTION THROUGH WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE
HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NC/SC. DESPITE A RAPID
DEWPOINT RECOVERY SINCE 00Z...THERE IS LITTLE ANALYZED INSTABILITY
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200
J/KG OF NEAR SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
AT BEST...WITH SOME MORE APPRECIABLE BUT WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 13Z. RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE SOME SHEARING
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND A RADAR TRENDS TEND TO SUPPORT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER FORCING. STILL... THE INTENSITY OF
THE LLJ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME 30-40KT GUSTS
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BETTER AIRMASS LATE THIS MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE
THREAT OF A SEVERE STORM...WHILE LOW...WILL ALSO INCREASE. RAINFALL
TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
FOR MOST.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND DRYING...WITH MIXING TO AS HIGHS 800MB
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S
EAST. WITHING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SECONDARY VORT LOBE AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING..WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED WIND
GUESTS TO 35-40KT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO STAY IN THE 30-35KT RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 25-
30KT RANGE ELSEWHERE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU
DRIFTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO
THE 40S..IF NOT UPPER 30S INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRI...WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~20 M/12 HR) LINGERING OVER
SC/SOUTHERN NC. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRI
NIGHT...WITH A CONCENTRATED PRECEDING AREA OF MUCH STRONGER MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~120 M/12 HR) AND COLD POOL ALOFT (~ MINUS 38 C)
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A CLIPPER-TYPE
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH RAPID
DEEPENING LIKELY AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE WAVES REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TRAILING POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS
CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT.
DESPITE SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ON FRI...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
MOISTENING/AROUND 700 MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS...THEN WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR
SURFACE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...IT WILL BE
MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT - IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS IN
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.
DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG CAA AND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH AS THE CENTER OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE OH VALLEY...30-40 KTS OF NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-UPPER 50S.
THE CENTER OF CP HIGH...AROUND 1030 MB BY 12Z SUN...WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1285 METERS AT 12Z SUN SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE 20S --BETWEEN 22 AND 28 DEGREES-- COLDEST IN
OUTLYING WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...AND HIGHEST IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SOME LINGERING NNW STIRRING WILL POSSIBLE IN
A LINGERING LIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM THURSDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUN AND OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS THAT MAY INTERACT AS THEY APPROACH THE
EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
--INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH(S)...CENTERED
AROUND THE DAY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING... CLOUD DECKS HAVE FINALLY
RISEN TO VFR... AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WITH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS THROUGH FRI... AS OTHER DISTURBANCES SWING
OVER THE REGION AROUND A DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW CENTERED
TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY WITH PERIODIC STRONGER
SURFACE GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONTS DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION... ONE THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER FRI AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WSW
OR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD... SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE... MAINLY THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRI WITH
THE RESUMPTION OF DEEP MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY VFR VSBYS... HOWEVER THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
ALTERNATING WITH DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGES... ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
BRISK AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS... ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BUT
ANY CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR WITH VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MAY BRING A CHANCE
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...2
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
955 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER...REINFORCING SECONDARY FRONTS WILL
FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...
REST OF TODAY: COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA... CURRENTLY BISECTING CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT PACE AND NEAR
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT
BRUSHED ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN AND SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS... ALONG WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS
INCLUDING THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. BUT
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING... WITH A SECONDARY PEAK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SRN AND ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A WNW JET CORE OVER TN. MUCH DRIER
AIR HAS ARRIVED AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTIGATED BY
HEATING/MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PERSISTENT
HEIGHT FALLS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING... WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 65-72. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY: A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AND 50KT LLJ ARE DRIVING A BAND
OF CONVECTION THROUGH WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE
HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NC/SC. DESPITE A RAPID
DEWPOINT RECOVERY SINCE 00Z...THERE IS LITTLE ANALYZED INSTABILITY
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200
J/KG OF NEAR SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
AT BEST...WITH SOME MORE APPRECIABLE BUT WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 13Z. RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE SOME SHEARING
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND A RADAR TRENDS TEND TO SUPPORT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER FORCING. STILL... THE INTENSITY OF
THE LLJ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME 30-40KT GUSTS
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BETTER AIRMASS LATE THIS MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE
THREAT OF A SEVERE STORM...WHILE LOW...WILL ALSO INCREASE. RAINFALL
TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
FOR MOST.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND DRYING...WITH MIXING TO AS HIGHS 800MB
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S
EAST. WITHING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SECONDARY VORT LOBE AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING..WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED WIND
GUESTS TO 35-40KT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO STAY IN THE 30-35KT RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 25-
30KT RANGE ELSEWHERE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU
DRIFTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO
THE 40S..IF NOT UPPER 30S INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRI...WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~20 M/12 HR) LINGERING OVER
SC/SOUTHERN NC. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRI
NIGHT...WITH A CONCENTRATED PRECEDING AREA OF MUCH STRONGER MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~120 M/12 HR) AND COLD POOL ALOFT (~ MINUS 38 C)
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A CLIPPER-TYPE
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH RAPID
DEEPENING LIKELY AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE WAVES REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TRAILING POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS
CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT.
DESPITE SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ON FRI...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
MOISTENING/AROUND 700 MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS...THEN WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR
SURFACE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...IT WILL BE
MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT - IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS IN
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.
DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG CAA AND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH AS THE CENTER OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE OH VALLEY...30-40 KTS OF NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-UPPER 50S.
THE CENTER OF CP HIGH...AROUND 1030 MB BY 12Z SUN...WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1285 METERS AT 12Z SUN SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE 20S --BETWEEN 22 AND 28 DEGREES-- COLDEST IN
OUTLYING WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...AND HIGHEST IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SOME LINGERING NNW STIRRING WILL POSSIBLE IN
A LINGERING LIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM THURSDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUN AND OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS THAT MAY INTERACT AS THEY APPROACH THE
EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
--INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH(S)...CENTERED
AROUND THE DAY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS...MOST LIKELY MVFR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED WIND GUST OF UP TO 30-35KT FOR KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. THE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE SITES BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY AREAWIDE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVE QUICKLY AS A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND STRENGTHENS AND CLOUDS SCATTER/LIFT TO 6-7K FT. WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME MAY
EXCEED 30KT AT KGSO/KINT BEFORE DYING OFF TO 10KT OR LESS BY
MIDNIGHT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KGSO/KINT.
OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...2
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
LATER IN THE DAY. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
DAYBREAK UPDATE. CURRENT FOCUS IS TRACKING THE LINE OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH POSE A WIND THREAT THIS MORNING...THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WATER VAPOR DATA ILLUSTRATING NICELY THE APPROACHING AND
AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC
EARLY THIS MORNING INLAND AND MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY WIND ENERGY
ACCOMPANIES THIS EARLY SPRING TROUGH WITH A 925-850 MB WIND MAXIMA
DEPICTED IN RAP13 ISOTACH PLOTS BETWEEN 4AM INLAND TO 9-11 AM OFF
THE SC AND NC COAST RESPECTIVELY. CONSEQUENTLY SPC HAS UPPED THE
ANTE WITH `MARGINAL` RISK THIS MORNING.
ITS ONLY FITTING A CHANGEABLE WEEK SHOULD HAVE A CHANGEABLE DAY
AND TODAY AFTER THE UNSETTLED START...SUNSHINE SHOULD DEBUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MAXIMUMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE LIMITED SO SLIGHT
CHANCE. COOL AIR ADVECTION LATE WILL BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAIN HEADLINES ARE
DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW TURNING NW LATE SATURDAY...AS A POLAR
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS DIPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. FREEZE WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES FOR THE COLD AIR
SUNDAY MORNING. ESSENTIALLY FAIR THIS PERIOD ASIDE FROM COLD AIR
INTRUSION. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY ILM 31...FLO 28...MYR 33.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HELPS TO REVERSE
THIS LATEST RELENTLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THIS IS A LATE DAY
OCCURRENCE HOWEVER SUNDAY ITSELF WILL END UP QUITE CHILLY ALBEIT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY
CLEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT
MUCH MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN THIS NEW WARM ADVECTION
REGIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE AND MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE RISE. SAID MOISTURE WILL YIELD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE COLD
ADVECTION APPEARS QUITE WEAK. ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE AS MUCH HINGING
UPON POSSIBLE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS ANY THERMAL ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 AM THURSDAY...STRONG ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED...A LINE
OF CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE 40 KT GUSTS ON THE
WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE IF HEADING OUT THIS
MORNING. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE S SHIFTING TO WSW MID AFTERNOON. SEAS ELEVATED WILL PEAK
AT 5-8 FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
IN AND NEAR TSTMS. WSW WINDS BECOMING WNW LATE TONIGHT 15-20 KT
AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SEAS RECOVERING EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE AS MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS HOLD IN A 10-15 KT RANGE ON
FRIDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHER OFFSHORE. LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONDITIONS WORSEN AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS OPEN THE
DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVISORY W WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND ALL OF SATURDAY MAY BE PLAGUED
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... SUNDAY A VERY TRANSITIONAL DAY AS WINDS START
EARLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND AT SLIGHTLY AGITATED SPEEDS FOLLOWED
BY A QUICK RELAXATION AND ALL DAY DIRECTIONAL VEERING. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, THEN
OVERHEAD, THEN OFF THE COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE AREA
KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
314 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
LATER IN THE DAY. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR DATA ILLUSTRATING NICELY THE
APPROACHING AND AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NE
SC AND SE NC EARLY THIS MORNING INLAND AND MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY
WIND ENERGY ACCOMPANIES THIS EARLY SPRING TROUGH WITH A 925-850 MB
WIND MAXIMA DEPICTED IN RAP13 ISOTACH PLOTS BETWEEN 4AM INLAND TO
9-11 AM OFF THE SC AND NC COAST RESPECTIVELY. CONSEQUENTLY SPC HAS
UPPED THE ANTE WITH `MARGINAL` RISK THIS MORNING.
ITS ONLY FITTING A CHANGEABLE WEEK SHOULD HAVE A CHANGEABLE DAY
AND TODAY AFTER THE UNSETTLED START...SUNSHINE SHOULD DEBUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MAXIMUMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE LIMITED SO SLIGHT
CHANCE. COOL AIR ADVECTION LATE WILL BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAIN HEADLINES ARE
DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW TURNING NW LATE SATURDAY...AS A POLAR
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS DIPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. FREEZE WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES FOR THE COLD AIR
SUNDAY MORNING. ESSENTIALLY FAIR THIS PERIOD ASIDE FROM COLD AIR
INTRUSION. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY ILM 31...FLO 28...MYR 33.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HELPS TO REVERSE
THIS LATEST RELENTLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THIS IS A LATE DAY
OCCURRENCE HOWEVER SUNDAY ITSELF WILL END UP QUITE CHILLY ALBEIT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY
CLEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT
MUCH MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN THIS NEW WARM ADVECTION
REGIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE AND MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE RISE. SAID MOISTURE WILL YIELD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE COLD
ADVECTION APPEARS QUITE WEAK. ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE AS MUCH HINGING
UPON POSSIBLE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS ANY THERMAL ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...STRONG ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED...A LINE OF
CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE 40 KT GUSTS ON THE
WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE IF HEADING OUT THIS
MORNING. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE S SHIFTING TO WSW MID AFTERNOON. SEAS ELEVATED WILL PEAK
AT 5-8 FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
IN AND NEAR TSTMS. WSW WINDS BECOMING WNW LATE TONIGHT 15-20 KT
AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SEAS RECOVERING EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE AS MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS HOLD IN A 10-15 KT RANGE ON
FRIDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHER OFFSHORE. LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONDITIONS WORSEN AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS OPEN THE
DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVISORY W WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND ALL OF SATURDAY MAY BE PLAGUED
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... SUNDAY A VERY TRANSITIONAL DAY AS WINDS START
EARLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND AT SLIGHTLY AGITATED SPEEDS FOLLOWED
BY A QUICK RELAXATION AND ALL DAY DIRECTIONAL VEERING. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, THEN
OVERHEAD, THEN OFF THE COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE AREA
KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
109 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE COAST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE INTO
THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING INLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BY 9Z AREAS
WEST OF I-95 WILL SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION...REACHING COASTAL
LOCALS AFTER DAYBREAK AND CLEARING OFF THE COAST MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTN. HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES
BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND MAGNITUDE AND BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INTO THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENE AND WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF DAYBREAK...MOVING OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WERE SKIRTING THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS EVE
AS THEY MOVED TO THE N.
OUR AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
WILL LIFT NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THU MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR A BRIEF TIME VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. S TO SW
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AND THIS WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL PEAK JUST OVER 1 INCH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN... THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
A QUICK HITTER...BUT UP TO A QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
WINDS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING...15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STABILIZE THIS EVE WITH A
TENDENCY TO EITHER HOLD STEADY OR RISE TOWARD MORNING UNDER THICK
CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...CERTAINLY WELL
ABOVE THE LOWS OF LAST NIGHT. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
FAST PACED CHANGES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY
THU BUT COLD ADVECTION IS INITIALLY LIMITED. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HELPS DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT...CLEARING OUT SKIES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT STARTING LATE THU NIGHT COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...THE BEGINNINGS OF A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.
MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND FROM TIME
TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE OF
THE STRONGER WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
AHEAD OF THE WAVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. ONCE AGAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A NON-ZERO POP BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET. WHILE
IT IS TRUE STRONG WAVES TEND TO PRODUCE PRECIP WHEN IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AND THE CORE OF THE
WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. THE SECOND WAVE WILL HELP DRAG AN
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING A
DRY COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
W-NW FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NW-N THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL
A DEEP FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR MASS WILL
COME FROM WELL INTO NORTHWEST CANADA PULLING DOWN A BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AND
DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT OVER FORECAST AREA LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN GUSTY NW-N WINDS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TO HOW LOW THE
TEMPS WILL GET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE 850 TEMPS HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY WITH LOWEST READINGS AROUND -4-5C INSTEAD OF -8C.
THERE SHOULD BE PLACES THAT REACH BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR CROPS OR PLANTS MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AND THEREFORE REMAIN ALERT FOR UPDATES OF POSSIBLE
FREEZE.
CAA WILL CUT OFF COME SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS COULD AFFECT EITHER SAT NIGHT
LOW OR SUN NIGHT LOW AS ANY DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT NIGHT
WILL PRODUCE LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERALL WOULD THINK THIS WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON SUN NIGHT TEMPS BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
BRING CENTER OVERHEAD SUN AFTN AND THEN A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN MOISTURE
RETURN AND A RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN
NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSER TO 40 SUN NIGHT.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT NEAR 60 FOR SATURDAY AND THEN NEAR 70 BY MONDAY UNDER BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THOUGH. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUES
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE TUES. TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE BACK UP
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEDGE SETTING UP
FOR MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND PCP POST
FROPA ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 109 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO THU NIGHT.
A S TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50+ KT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO PICK
UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PEAKING IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE WITH A FEW 9 FT SEAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THU MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SCA ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THU AND POSSIBLY PART OF THU NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY THU BUT WINDS ARE
SLOW TO VEER TO WESTERLY. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
APPROACH 30 KT SUSTAINED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS REMAIN
20 TO 25 KT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO PINCHED GRADIENT.
WESTERLY FLOW DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THU NIGHT AND GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX. THIS ALLOWS FOR SEAS DROPPING UNDER 6 FT...ACROSS
SC WATERS FIRST AND THEN ACROSS NC WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA HEADLINE FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH 25 KT. OFFSHORE WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT DESPITE
SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE UP AROUND SCA THRESHOLDS
EARLY SATURDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH A
STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW. STRONG NW-N FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL MIXED UNDER
STRONG CAA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT CLOSER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO RELAX. EXPECT WIND TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY
SUN AFTN WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS. BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE TO S AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS. BY
MON NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP PACE REACHING UP TO 10 TO
15 KT PUSHING SEAS BACK UP A FT OR TWO LEAVING MOST SEAS IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE BY TUES MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH A FEW SITES PERIODICALLY HITTING 30MPH SUSTAINED.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THAT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY
WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925MB-850MB WINDS SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASING.
PLUS...THE SITES THAT ARE HITTING 30MPH ARE RIGHT AT 30MPH AND NOT
STRONGER...FOR ONLY BRIEF PERIODS.
-SN/-RA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. NOT SEEING MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATION...AND IN FACT MOST ROADS ARE WET ACCORDING TO
WEBCAMS (SFC TEMPS 32F-36F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST ND
AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
NORTH MAN AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. MAN TROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
FRI. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN.
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO UP IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THE AFTN FOR RANSOM AND SARGENTCOUNTIES.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MAN SAT NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND
EAST ZONES FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OF A PATTERN
CHANGE COMING UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MORE
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWER THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKS
DRY AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/GFS DOES NOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFTING OF CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM
IFR/MVFR TO VFR BY 00Z WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST. LAST WILL
BE BJI WHICH MAY STILL HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR FORECAST. VFR CIGS
THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1205 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY NORTH AS WE ARE OBSERVING WINDS GUSTING
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT GARRISON AND AROUND THE BISMARCK/MANDAN
AREAS. OTHER SITES NORTH OF THE ADV HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST AS WELL. OTHER GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKING GOOD SO
ONLY MINIMAL OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AT THE MOMENT AND WHERE I CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE SKY TO REMAIN
CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS. DO NOT
FEEL IT IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FOSTER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES
AND MOVED UP THE START TIME TO THE CURRENT HOUR FOR THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON THE AWOS/
ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN...WHICH HAVE MET
ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE ABOUT 11 UTC...AND RAP AND HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-LAYER WINDS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AT KJMS HIGHLIGHT THE
AVIATION CONCERNS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY BKN MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS COVERING
KMOT/KJMS/KBIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KDIK AND KISN SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF LOW
VFR/MVFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOW CU TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT IN
SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ018>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH A FEW SITES PERIODICALLY HITTING 30MPH SUSTAINED.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THAT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY
WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925MB-850MB WINDS SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASING.
PLUS...THE SITES THAT ARE HITTING 30MPH ARE RIGHT AT 30MPH AND NOT
STRONGER...FOR ONLY BRIEF PERIODS.
-SN/-RA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. NOT SEEING MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATION...AND IN FACT MOST ROADS ARE WET ACCORDING TO
WEBCAMS (SFC TEMPS 32F-36F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST ND
AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
NORTH MAN AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. MAN TROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
FRI. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN.
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO UP IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THE AFTN FOR RANSOM AND SARGENTCOUNTIES.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MAN SAT NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND
EAST ZONES FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OF A PATTERN
CHANGE COMING UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MORE
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWER THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKS
DRY AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/GFS DOES NOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN. EASTERN ND WAS UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN EASTERN ND. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER
BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING. MORE MVFR CIGS MAY ROTATE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO NORTHWEST MN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FOSTER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES
AND MOVED UP THE START TIME TO THE CURRENT HOUR FOR THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON THE AWOS/
ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN...WHICH HAVE MET
ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE ABOUT 11 UTC...AND RAP AND HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-LAYER WINDS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AT KMOT/KJMS HIGHLIGHT THE
AVIATION CONCERNS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY BKN MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS COVERING
KMOT/KJMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18-20Z THURSDAY. KBIS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF LOW VFR/MVFR UNTIL 16Z. OTHERWISE
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
22KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-037-048-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ043>047-050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KJMS FROM 12Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT KDIK AND KJMS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25KT AND GUSTS TO 36KT...BETWEEN 14Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ043>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KJMS FROM 12Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT KDIK AND KJMS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25KT AND GUSTS TO 36KT...BETWEEN 14Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ043>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
808 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA MOVED INTO SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF MODOC COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVED INTO THE BLY/BEATTY AREA. EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE BY 900 PM PDT. GRIDS WERE UPDATED AND
SENT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE INTERESTING WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING COVERAGE COULD BE MORE THAN
ISOLATED ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/0Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BETWEEN
5-6Z WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TO START, THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
IFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING MVFR WITH
ISOLATED IFR STRATUS UP TO THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRI 8 APR 2016...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW DECREASING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR
NOW, WE`LL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. HOWEVER THE
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SWELL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 16 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL GET
THAT HIGH, BUT HAVE TRENDED THEM UPWARD. IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE SWELL HEIGHT, THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THEM HIGHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...08/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE OFFSHORE REX BLOCK THAT BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO THE MEDFORD
CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAS BROKEN...BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL SET
UP FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OFFSHORE IS NOW OVER THE AREA...BUT
A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEAR 35N 135W. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA HAS
TURNED SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. IT IS EARLY FOR THIS TYPE OF MOISTURE...BUT THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY FOR MEDFORD ALSO CAME VERY EARLY...EARLIER THAN EVER
BEFORE AS A MATTER OF FACT.
THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AFTER A HOT SPELL USUALLY MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT. JUST WHERE THAT AREA WILL BE IS PROVING TO BE A MAJOR
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
TODAY ISN`T LOOKING GOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW THE MOST
INSTABILITY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CASCADES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR AT THIS TIME. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT KMFR SHOWED 0.66
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS LESS
NOW. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. SPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF NON-
THERMAL FORCING. THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE MUCH OF ANYTHING...JUST A
FEW CELLS OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTY.
SO...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES GET GOING WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A LACK OF
NON-THERMAL FORCING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE MEDFORD CWA. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECORDS MAY STILL BE SET TODAY...BUT THEY WON`T BE SHATTERED THE
WAY THEY WERE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL SET UP TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EASTERLY...BUT IT WILL NOT
CUT OFF THE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL JUST PUSH
THE TRAJECTORY FARTHER EAST.
THIS WILL PUSH THE HOT SPOT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES
AND NEAR EAST SIDE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SPC GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIR MASS IN GENERAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA WHERE IT WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...AND BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE OVER OREGON AND THE LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE TRENDS ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST...AND THE EAST SIDE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA THEN.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER STILL...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT
SHASTA AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A KICKER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
BUT IT WILL SET UP AGAIN MONDAY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING MONDAY IT WILL BE OVER THE FAR EAST
SIDE. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE SAME OR JUST A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS.
LONG-TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION DETAILS...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER 500MB
HEIGHTS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS LOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY. THE EC
FEATURES A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES AN UPPER LOW SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
AREA. GFS MODEL TRENDS DO POINT TOWARD LOWERING HEIGHTS
OFFSHORE...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS...WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY INTACT.
SO...IN SUMMARY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS COOL AND WET TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY WEATHER DUE TO
THE DIFFERENCES IN UPPER LOW POSITIONING AMONGST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST EXPECT IFR TO
SPREAD INLAND INTO THE COOS BASIN INTO THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE COASTAL IFR DURING FRIDAY THOUGH
WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR
STRATUS UP TO THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING. SK
MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRI 8 APR 2016...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW DECREASING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FOR NOW, WE`LL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OFFSHORE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. HOWEVER
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SWELL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 16 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL GET THAT HIGH, BUT HAVE TRENDED THEM UPWARD. IF THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE SWELL HEIGHT, THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO ADJUST THEM HIGHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
FJB/NSK/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL
PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL
PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING AN APPROACHING BAND OF RAIN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH SOUTHERLY LL JET/PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE PRECEDING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO
THE CENTRAL PA MTNS AT 05Z...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 3KM
RESULTING IN LITTLE IN A LOT OF VIRGA AND LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AT THE SFC. EVENTUALLY SOME LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS LL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE
ARE LOW EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A
TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE
COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER
SNOW EVENT.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 07/06Z TAFS THROUGH 08/06Z | ISSUED 200 AM EDT 4/7/16
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH ONLY
SCT -SHRA OVER THE WRN 1/2. SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE 11-16Z
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY THE ERN 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE IN ZNY SECTOR PER LATEST HIRES COSPA/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL
LKLY SEE BORDERLINE IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS INVOF MDT/LNS AROUND
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT LOW DEWPOINTS AM SKEPTICAL OF THE
GUIDANCE BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR AND THEREFORE HAVE STAYED
MORE IN THE MVFR RANGE. STRONG LLJ FROM AROUND 210 DEGREES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP 35-50KT LLWS IN TAFS THRU 12-14Z.
EXPECT A COLDER POST- FRONTAL WNW FLOW PATTERN TO PREVAIL FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN...THIS
PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT LEAD TO SCT INSTABILITY -SHRA WITH A ISOLD
TSTM PSBL OVER THE SRN 1/3. BLYR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
FAVOR RA/SN MIX OVER THE WRN 1/3 BY THIS EVENING AND -SHSN
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY-MONDAY
FRI...MVFR CIGS/-SHSNRA WEST ENDING. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. DECREASING
WINDS.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RA/SN. BCMG WINDY.
SAT NGT-SUN...DECREASING WINDS/GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN NGT-MON...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH CFROPA MON NGT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
100 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL
PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL
PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING AN APPROACHING BAND OF RAIN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH SOUTHERLY LL JET/PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE PRECEDING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO
THE CENTRAL PA MTNS AT 05Z...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 3KM
RESULTING IN LITTLE IN A LOT OF VIRGA AND LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AT THE SFC. EVENTUALLY SOME LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS LL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE
ARE LOW EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A
TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE
COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER
SNOW EVENT.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN AND A MID DECK WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER W PA ALIGNED WITH LLJET HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE NW
MTNS...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT THIS
WILL ERODE A BIT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS - LIKELY REMAINING WEST
OF KBFD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD THE RAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LOWER AND RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AS THE RAIN
BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST /AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME
TO MOISTEN UP THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS/ - AND PREDAWN OVER THE
EAST AS WARMER LLJET OVERRUNS SOME COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
BIGGEST CONCERN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE S/SE AND LLWS AS 850MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-50
KT RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THU. REDUCTIONS EARLY WILL
CEDE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE USUAL
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /THAT WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THU
NIGHT/. SECONDARY TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TSTM TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SE LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN SW THEN
WESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY...BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS. TSTM POSS SE.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BRISK...BLUSTERY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM...MINOR TWEAKS TO POP WERE MADE OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF NOTE IN THE MTNS THOUGH SOME DRIFTING
COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE
UPDATED THRU MORNING. THE LATEST GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS FREEZING
TEMPS WITHIN THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HEADLINES WILL REMAIN
AS-IS...THOUGH I WILL CHECK/REISSUE THE TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORT
LOBES. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE SUCH LOBE EXTENDING FROM SERN KY
INTO CENTRAL NC...STRADDLING THE NRN CWFA. RADAR RETURNS EAST OF
THE MTNS HAVE DWINDLED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BETTER
DPVA HAS SHIFTED OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL INDICATED
OVER THE MTNS. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WILL OCCUR BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY AGAIN NEAR THE TENN BORDER AS THE FORCING SHIFTS FROM
THE DEPARTING VORT MAX TO NW FLOW AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
IN THE LLVLS...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ATOP THE CWFA. A PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR ACRS THE MTNS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING 850 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS OVER THE NC
MTNS. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH ON THE WINDS...ESP
UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. I AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...AND OPTED
TO TAKE A BLEND WHICH ONLY BUMPS UP WINDS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLACED. THE
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS
(SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW).
THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS NW FLOW SNOW. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT...WITH
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW
FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE EAST OF THE
MTNS THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN
THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LWR 30S IN THE MTNS
(WHERE IN THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD). MIN TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 12-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
TIER LATE MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE...AND POP WILL BE KEPT AT SUB SLIGHT CHANCES UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW. EVEN THEN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDOWN MONDAY.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FREEZE OR
HARD FREEZE LOOKS QUITE LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF 20S MINS EXPECTED.
SOME PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
WINDS SLACKEN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAY KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE
CURRENT WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOUTH TO SW FLOW AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON MAXES NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM...THEN DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST...
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN DEEP
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH INCREASING POP MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POP ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
CONFUSION REIGNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE GFS DOES
CONTINUE ITS TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOWS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US OPENING UP AND SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN IT AND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE ECMWF STARTS OUT LIKE
THE GFS BUT KEEPS A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER MOVING UPPER LOW. THIS
LOW NEVER PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND NOW REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE SE
THURSDAY WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY...BUT SOME
ENERGY DOES UNDERCUT AN ANTICYCLONE WITH DEVELOPS FROM THE RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS AGREEMENT
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER
THE NE US AND TAKES ON A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A FAST MOVING GULF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH THE GULF LOW...BUT NOT AS WET AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL
BLEND WHICH BRINGS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT BEING
WIND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A NOTABLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT BACKING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NE OF THE TERMINALS AROUND THAT TIME...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ON ACCOUNT OF THE STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ARE LIKELY AT TIMES OVER KAVL AND OTHER
MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION...FROM JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. THOUGH THE GUSTS WILL RELAX A BIT
TOWARD MIDDAY...ATYPICALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AFTN.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS INVOF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SC...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SC FORESTRY...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE UPSTATE FOR SATURDAY FROM
10 AM TO 8 PM EDT. THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WINDS LOOK CLOSE TO
RED FLAG...BUT FUEL MOISTURES ARE STILL A BIT TOO MOIST FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.
FOR GA...FUELS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 10 PCT TODAY...BUT FURTHER
DRYING WILL LIKELY PUSH THEM TO THE 8 PCT THRESHOLD. BOTH THE RH AND
WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA...SO
AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR NE GA.
FOR NC...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SOLIDLY MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA FOR SATURDAY. NC FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATES
FUEL MOISTURES OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO INCREASE
WILDFIRE DANGER. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
IREDELL-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND AND ALL COUNTIES EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 85 2001 35 1916 62 1922 24 1972
KCLT 89 1893 46 2003 64 1908 25 1972
1916
KGSP 89 1965 48 2003 63 1999 27 1972
1938 1922
RECORDS FOR 04-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2001 38 1907 60 1959 23 1985
1929
1908
KCLT 90 2001 44 1984 65 1922 28 2007
1893 1985
KGSP 91 1995 44 2003 63 1922 24 1916
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
501>507.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ068>072-082-508>510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-
059-062>064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ036-
037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...ARK/WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
759 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BRISK...BLUSTERY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...IN LIGHT OF UPDATED POP/WIND/SKY GRIDS THRU
SATURDAY...CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK FINE.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORT
LOBES. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE SUCH LOBE EXTENDING FROM NE TN OVER
INTO THE CAROLINA SANDHILLS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACRS WRN
NC INVOF THIS FEATURE...BUT A LULL IN THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE NC MTNS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPS ARE ALREADY COLD
ENOUGH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THESE WILL OCCUR AS SNOW.
IN THE LLVLS...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ATOP THE CWFA. A PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR ACRS THE MTNS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING 850 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS OVER THE NC
MTNS. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH ON THE WINDS...ESP
UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. I AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...AND OPTED
TO TAKE A BLEND WHICH ONLY BUMPS UP WINDS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLACED. THE
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS
(SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW).
THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS NW FLOW SNOW. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT...WITH
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW
FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE EAST OF THE
MTNS THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN
THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LWR 30S IN THE MTNS
(WHERE IN THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD). MIN TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 12-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
TIER LATE MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE...AND POP WILL BE KEPT AT SUB SLIGHT CHANCES UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW. EVEN THEN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDOWN MONDAY.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FREEZE OR
HARD FREEZE LOOKS QUITE LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF 20S MINS EXPECTED.
SOME PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
WINDS SLACKEN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAY KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE
CURRENT WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOUTH TO SW FLOW AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON MAXES NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM...THEN DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST...
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN DEEP
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH INCREASING POP MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POP ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
CONFUSION REIGNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE GFS DOES
CONTINUE ITS TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOWS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US OPENING UP AND SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN IT AND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE ECMWF STARTS OUT LIKE
THE GFS BUT KEEPS A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER MOVING UPPER LOW. THIS
LOW NEVER PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND NOW REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE SE
THURSDAY WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY...BUT SOME
ENERGY DOES UNDERCUT AN ANTICYCLONE WITH DEVELOPS FROM THE RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS AGREEMENT
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER
THE NE US AND TAKES ON A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A FAST MOVING GULF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH THE GULF LOW...BUT NOT AS WET AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL
BLEND WHICH BRINGS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT BEING
WIND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A NOTABLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT BACKING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NE OF THE TERMINALS AROUND THAT TIME...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ON ACCOUNT OF THE STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ARE LIKELY AT TIMES OVER KAVL AND OTHER
MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION...FROM JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. THOUGH THE GUSTS WILL RELAX A BIT
TOWARD MIDDAY...ATYPICALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AFTN.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS INVOF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SC...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SC FORESTRY...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE UPSTATE FOR SATURDAY FROM
10 AM TO 8 PM EDT. THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WINDS LOOK CLOSE TO
RED FLAG...BUT FUEL MOISTURES ARE STILL A BIT TOO MOIST FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.
FOR GA...FUELS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 10 PCT TODAY...BUT FURTHER
DRYING WILL LIKELY PUSH THEM TO THE 8 PCT THRESHOLD. BOTH THE RH AND
WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA...SO
AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR NE GA.
FOR NC...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SOLIDLY MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA FOR SATURDAY. NC FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATES
FUEL MOISTURES OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO INCREASE
WILDFIRE DANGER. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
IREDELL-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND AND ALL COUNTIES EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 85 2001 35 1916 62 1922 24 1972
KCLT 89 1893 46 2003 64 1908 25 1972
1916
KGSP 89 1965 48 2003 63 1999 27 1972
1938 1922
RECORDS FOR 04-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2001 38 1907 60 1959 23 1985
1929
1908
KCLT 90 2001 44 1984 65 1922 28 2007
1893 1985
KGSP 91 1995 44 2003 63 1922 24 1916
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ010.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
501>507.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ068>072-082-508>510.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ036-
037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...ARK/WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE...WIHT GUSTS PRESERVED DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
AS OF 1040 PM...PREFRONTAL PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS GROWN INTO A REGION
OF APPARENTLY STRATIFORM RAIN NOW MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS OF
EASTERN TN/KY. FURTHER SOUTH IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR...A NARROW QLCS
EXTENDS FROM AROUND CHATTANOOGA SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A REGION OF NEARLY 1000
J/KG OF SBCAPE. A COUPLE OF DISCRETE CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE AND THESE ARE TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR GA
ZONES. UNSEASONABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED ONE OF THESE LEADING CELLS TO
PRODUCE UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. HOWEVER AS THESE MOVE TOWARD
OUR AREA THEY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR WHICH APPEARS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO THEIR DEMISE. THIS IS THE TREND SHOWN FROM MESO
GUIDANCE. I HAVE REVISED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT NATURE OF
THE ACTIVITY. THOUGH THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS WERE CLOSE TO THE
LATEST HRRR TIMING...THE ACTIVITY HAS OUTPACED THE HRRR SO FAR THIS
EVENING...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. ALSO REVISED OVERNIGHT
TEMPS IN
THOUGH THE PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIMITED...PEAKING PERHAPS AT 100-200 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
IT...HIGH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND VERY HIGH 0-1KM HELICITY WILL
BE PRESENT. GIVEN THESE STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL
QLCS STORM STRUCTURE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA. MILD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS
TO LOW 50S EAST.
THURSDAY...BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
CWA...RESULTING IN DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND THINNING CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE WSW DURING THE DAY...PEAKING ACROSS
THE NC NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT GUSTS ABOVE 46 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CHANNELIZED H5
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURE
AND LLVL NW WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SCT TO NUM SHOWERS ALONG THE TN
LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT KAVL TO UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RETURN
TO WINTER EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
COOLER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THICKNESS TUMBLES STEADILY AS
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORCED UP THE TN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PASSAGE OF A FOLLOW-UP SHORT WAVE...THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CHANNELED
VORTICITY...WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPREAD OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS SUPPORT
MAINLY RAIN TO START WITH...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL FROM
ABOUT 5K FEET AT 00Z FRIDAY DOWN ALMOST TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY....AND WILL THEN STAY SOMEWHERE IN THE 2K-3K FT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURGES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER THROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WOULD NOT BE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM IF THE QPF GUIDANCE HAD NOT MADE A TREND TOWARD A
WETTER SYSTEM. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A BLEND OF THE WETTER WPC
GUIDANCE AND THE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBDUED NAM/SREF...WE STILL GET THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS NEAR
THE TN BORDER...AND PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MANY PARTS OF
THE NRN MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...THE TIMING OF ONSET BEING THE THIRD
PERIOD MEANS WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IF THE TREND
CONTINUES...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 32F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AVERY COUNTY...AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS...PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...TO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD ACROSS THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE BELOW 32F ACROSS ALL THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LINGERING STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FROST OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...OR MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES THE PLACE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY SLIDES
EAST AND MODERATES ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOULD
BE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER FREEZE OR NEAR FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RISING HEIGHTS...MODERATING AIR MASS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THAN
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS...SO HAVE POP INCREASING TO LIKELY WEST AND CHANCE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER MENTION OVER THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
THE GFS THEN OPENS UP YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US MOVING IT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
06/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. NATURALLY...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE GULF LOW PRESSURE...BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...KEEPING THE CWFA
DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POP INCREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DUE TO RAIN. BASED MODEL CLOUD COVER
AND TIME HEIGHTS...SCATTERED LOW VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...WITH SCATTERED MVFR AT KAVL. AS MOISTURE
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SECOND SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL RETURN...WITH MVFR AT KAVL...AND LOW
VFR AT SITE TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SECOND SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KAVL...WHERE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AS WELL. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
S TO WSW BY DAWN...EXCEPT NW AT KAVL...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RETREAT TO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS...AND WITH WINDS UP SLIGHTLY AND RELATIVELY DRY
AIR...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT MED 64% MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 57% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 71% MED 66% LOW 56% LOW 57%
KHKY HIGH 85% MED 61% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 57% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 64% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
915 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MORE THAN 150 MILES WNW OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE AND DEL RIO TO CORPUS
CHRISTI INDICATE A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING
1.24 INCHES AT KBRO AND 0.78 INCHES AT CRP. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCH LANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO GO
UNDER A LOT OF MODIFICATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR TRACK OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWA. MOST MODEL
PROJECTIONS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QPF/RAINFALL
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH ONLY THE HRRR SPREADING
GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN OUR AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
WITH ALL THIS SAID AND ONLY ONE MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RAIN
WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL CUT BACK ON AREAL
COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MONITOR THE
CONVECTION AND REVIEW THE 00Z MODEL PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY RAIN
WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...LIGHT EAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SPREADING OR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE MVFR CEILING
TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BROKEN CIGS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE MID MORNING SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM SEASON
TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH
DIFFLUENT FIELD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE SW US. CLOUD COVER STARTING
TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO LARGE TOWERS QUITE YET.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CURRENT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE MAIN PEAK TIMING WOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY NE AND DISSIPATING. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES...BUT GOING FORECAST HAS THE
IDEA. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE RACING AWAY FROM THE REGION AT THAT TIME.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT BREEZY WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW STARTING TO RAMP UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN THE HEATING
SOME...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST WHERE ANY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...TRANSIENT...SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM INTERESTING...BUT LIKELY NOT
TREMENDOUSLY EXCITING FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MILD H5 RIDGING
WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO COLORADO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS. A
MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST INFLOW LOOKS LIKELY ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY.
RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW...WILL RESULT
IN PERSISTENT THOUGH ERRATIC NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OUT
OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE
FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL LOWS WILL TROUGH OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AS IT
MOVES EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA SUN
NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...BUT DESPITE THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW...
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP STABILIZE CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW WILL ALSO TROUGH OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE PROCESS...WITH THE
HELP OF A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS
THE FRONT AND REMAINING UPPER ENERGY FOCUS OVER THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NO STRONG DRYING
TREND WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT AS EAST WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK THOUGH POPS REMAIN MOSTLY SILENT FOR NOW.
DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN
SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...IN REACTION TO PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MID
LEVEL TROUGH LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK NEAR NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SNEAK A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW RAMPS UP DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL
REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING SWELLS...STARTING AT 3 FEET TONIGHT REACHING 6 FEET BY
SUNSET SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL
INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE A TIGHT
LOCAL GRADIENT...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING. AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST...MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO
MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 79 71 80 / 10 10 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 67 80 69 81 / 10 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 66 83 69 83 / 10 10 10 0
MCALLEN 68 83 69 86 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 84 68 89 / 20 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 74 71 75 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1247 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST
AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED AT INGLESIDE AND NAVY CORPUS. LATEST HRRR AND
SREF ENSEMBLE INDICATE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BY 09Z AND LINGER UNTIL 14-15Z THURSDAY. MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC SHOWING PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO
TO IFR FOR CRP/ALI. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR CRP/ALI FOR UPDATE TO
IFR TEMPO LIFR FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT VCT BUT COULD SEE
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG THERE ALSO BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MEXICO MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL
LIKELY SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO
THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST/INCREASE FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FCST TO EXPAND THE REGION OF FOG
EXPECTED OVER THE SERN CWA/ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANDER OVER THE SRN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT AND
CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SERN CWA/ADJACENT
WATERS NEAR THE COAST. SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE SERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 81 64 80 68 / 0 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 55 80 59 79 65 / 0 0 10 20 10
LAREDO 64 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 20 20 10
ALICE 57 82 60 82 67 / 0 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 65 79 68 79 70 / 0 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 61 83 62 83 66 / 0 10 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 59 82 63 81 69 / 0 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 65 78 68 80 71 / 0 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OVERHEAD TODAY...AND BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE COLDER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PWAT CONTINUING TO SHOW QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN
MOISTURE THIS EVENING FROM DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
VERY DRY AIR ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. THIS ALSO
DEPICTED VIA VERY DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO 5H OFF EVENING
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND LINGERING LOW DEWPOINTS. THIS IN
ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN KY/TN ATTM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SOME OF THIS HOLDING TOGETHER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY ACROSS
FAR SW SECTIONS DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY.
ALSO DECENT AXIS OF LIFT SEEN ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FADING
HEADING EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SLOWLY RAMPS
UP. THUS BEEFED UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL A BIT SOONER OVER
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WHILE SPEEDING UP ENDING SOONER PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MOUNTAINS...AND BY MID MORNING THURSDAY EAST IF NOT
SOONER. DESPITE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONGER STORMS TO THE
WEST...WONT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION PENDING TRENDS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...BOTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND POST FRONTAL ON THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS THURSDAY MAY TEST WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...40 KTS...ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING PER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE COOLING VIA RAINFALL THROUGH
DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NEUTRALIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROF...THAT IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL PER THE 12Z GEFS.
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3 MB
AND 850MB WINDS 35-40 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN NW NC THAT MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR
FREEZING...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY...BUT WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY.
BEFORE A RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS ALLOW FOR A RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS...CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT SURGES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES AND
HIGHER WINDS AT 850MB...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL OR HIGHER
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL
INTRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A FETCH OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. GEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS 2-
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND KEPT HIGHS 20-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. IN SUMMARY...A BLUSTERY...WINTER-LIKE DAY
IS ON TAP SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IS REPLACED BY A ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROF...AND
PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SO KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT BRINGS
RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE
ON THE TIMING WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL AFTER SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
ON MVFR CONDITIONS IS QUITE HIGH FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS PORTRAY THAT FLYING CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN TO IFR AT
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB BY SUNRISE.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL
SUBSIDE...GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD PUSH SURFACE
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KBLF
AND KBCB. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT KBLF AND KLWB.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AT KBLF
AND KLWB DURING FRIDAY MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN TO
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT
MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500
MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS
WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR
PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA
AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN.
ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO
COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A LARGE SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A
CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THIS LOW WILL
REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING
LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:10 PM PDT FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT
MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500
MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS
WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR
PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA
AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN.
ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO
COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:04 PM PDT FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR DURING THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. LARGE
SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED APPROX 700 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS LOW
WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN LIGHT SE
WIND SATURDAY. VFR THIS EVENING TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING
LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
842 PM CDT
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. STRONG VORT
DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIGHT
CIRCULATION EVEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVE OVER KMKX RADAR SITE AT
840 PM. SEVERAL OBS OF LESS THAN HALF MILE VIS WITH THIS INTENSE
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN A QUICK INCH IN 30 MINUTES
REPORTED IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN IL PRIMARILY
FROM ABOUT I-39 EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO ABOVE 700
MB...AND 50+ J/KG OF CAPE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTERWARD IN COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND COLD AIR MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER RELATIVELY
MILDER LAKE WATERS.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1238 AM...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS STILL ACROSS RFD/NORTHWEST IL. THESE SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT
GYY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THOUGH HOW SOON THESE PUSH EAST IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT LIKELY AROUND OR BY 09Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INITIAL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIP...PERHAPS
SLEET WITH A LITTLE SNOW AND RAIN...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN
WITHIN A FEW HOURS. HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A PROB FOR THE
30 HOUR ORD TAF...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO AND PERHAPS PREVAILING
PRECIP FOR A TIME IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WELL INTO
THE MORNING AT GYY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH
ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE EASTERLY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST IL/RFD AND THE REST OF
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
425 PM CDT
A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY
DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN
WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE
NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE
A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT
GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A
TRANSISTION ON IN THE UPPER FLOW. THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE WEEK GOES ON...ECMWF
SUGGESTS STRONG RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BEFORE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPS IN THE LATER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NW FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF. FURTHERMORE A DRY FORECAST LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT
OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1227 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT
OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from
Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was
advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure
trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure
gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides
off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20
mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the
higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will
warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today.
Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns
for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire
weather section.
Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases
to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This
should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east
central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become
zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move
across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead
wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while
the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight.
Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east
central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later
tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear
will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers.
Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of
an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early
Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in
cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area.
Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most
precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern
areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the
70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than
1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few
pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on
south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak
isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern
Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but
northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri
Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent
mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in
the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the
stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface
still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime
radiational cooling in check.
The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing
western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally.
A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains
around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring
until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable
differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough
agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs
return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At
this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will continue to shift from northeast to east overnight,
then shift further to the southeast by mid/late morning. Expect
these southeast winds to become gusty by late morning/early
afternoon at 20-25kts with these strong winds persisting through
the evening hours. Winds may diminish slightly for a bit during
the early to mid evening hours. There is some concern for LLWS
this evening as a 50-60kt 850mb quickly develops. May start
seeing some increasing mid-level clouds late this afternoon into
this evening ahead of an approaching wave.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens
across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially
from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high.
Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the
slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution
which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the
northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the
afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture
recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this
afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where
moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH
increases through the afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this
evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON
CLEARING).
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER
WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH
MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY
AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN
OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE
3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE
LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILLBE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL
RESIDE IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE OR LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE FA. CAPE VALUES UP TO
600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TUESDAY TO THE LOWER
TOMID 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGEFROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS
THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF
THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON
CLEARING).
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER
WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH
MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY
AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN
OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE
3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE
LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE
EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/
EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR
THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT
WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA
SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24-
48 HRS.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE
70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT.
WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS
THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF
THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
MADE NEAR TERM POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH BLENDING OF LATEST OBS INTO THE
FORECAST GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DEAL WITH A SOME WHAT SNOW SQUALL TYPE
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THIS BAND WILL ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MORE MINOR CHANGES TO DEAL WITH LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES
TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS
IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR
MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING A FEW LOCATIONS AT TAF
ISSUANCE...BRINGING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST PLACES
WERE VFR. THE REMAINING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT
12Z...AND THEN LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR OR ABOVE 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH BAYFIELD COUNTY INTO WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY EARLIER TODAY
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS THE WIND HAS BACKED TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AT
DEVILS ISLAND...BUOY 45006 AND AT THE RAWS STATION ON SAND ISLAND.
WE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST...BACK INTO EASTERN ASHLAND AND OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTIES
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARNING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP BAYFIELD
COUNTY FROM THE WARNING PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND SEE ITS IMPACT ON THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS
EVENING.
AREAS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT.
WE WILL BE INCREASING THE COVERAGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 18Z
RUN OF THE GFS...12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS WERE
SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT
500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO
PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING
LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300
PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES.
STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING
DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR
TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY
00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE
50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL END AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE MID-UPPER
CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KDLH/KHIB/KINL. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BRIEFLY IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 20 40 20
INL 6 34 25 41 / 10 30 40 40
BRD 10 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10
HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30
ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-004.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this
morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along
and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in
northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional
temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze
warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area,
until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the
freezing mark later this morning.
Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900
hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further
reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming
temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help
highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by
late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20
percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire
danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid
Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels
could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution
should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames.
Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight
as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains.
Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight
hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight
due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few
showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an
approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a
substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon.
Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help
to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another
round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving
cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly
unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat
should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop
in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the
region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but
should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation
chances beyond midday Monday.
Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but
model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and
not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will
start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values
by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance
of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the
associated trough will likely change several times between now and
then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds
initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast
through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from
this afternoon and into the late evening hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest
temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in
COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly
surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east-
southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew
points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface
ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon,
allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become
southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along
with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection
this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range
from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s
across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees
below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof
deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the
Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to
increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and
moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM.
NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers
over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by
12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of
precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA.
Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low
level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection
on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z
and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide
portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to
likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The
focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the
cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move
southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the
GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with
storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more
in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier
precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern
Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along
and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out
of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday.
Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and
dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look
to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of
the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday
and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a
more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into
the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon.
They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as
clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are
expected to hold off until after the valid period.
TES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90
Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70
Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80
Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80
Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80
Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in
the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region.
Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning
bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures
will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings
are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks,
where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s.
South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer
night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out
east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday
morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north.
This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this
episode of convection.
While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not
suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape -
deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is
probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up
to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear
ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts
organized.
We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention
large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph
possible.
We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a
localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected
to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training
thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning.
Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a
multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also
expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by
Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in
response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over
the nation`s midsection.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight
through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east.
Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on
Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low
level wind shear develops.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds
initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast
through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from
this afternoon and into the late evening hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds
initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast
through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from
this afternoon and into the late evening hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight
through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east.
Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on
Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low
level wind shear develops.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight
through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east.
Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on
Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low
level wind shear develops.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1138 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having
occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually
diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas
north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to
allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save
some pockets of the STL urban heat island.
A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures
making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into
the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon.
They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as
clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are
expected to hold off until after the valid period.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
900 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having
occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually
diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas
north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to
allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save
some pockets of the STL urban heat island.
A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures
making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening
and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging
as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE
Saturday evening.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
637 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening
and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging
as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE
Saturday evening.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Light northerly
winds initially will continue veering to the east overnight before
shifting to the southeast after 12z. Speeds will increase after
sunrise with sustained winds of 12-16 kts likely through the late
morning and afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...00z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with
light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the
southeast tomorrow by mid day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...00z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with
light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the
southeast tomorrow by mid day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 31 51 46 65 / 5 0 10 50
Quincy 23 48 42 64 / 5 0 20 60
Columbia 28 54 47 67 / 5 0 20 50
Jefferson City 27 56 48 69 / 5 0 20 50
Salem 27 48 39 64 / 10 0 10 50
Farmington 27 53 42 66 / 5 0 20 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102-103.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-104-105.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-038>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ037-043-053-
054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
326 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1151 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the
northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region.
Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from
northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak
instability and this activity will continue into parts of our
northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into
synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most
of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be
out of our area by 00z.
Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with
humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but
stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses.
Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential
Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
440 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND BRING SOME
SNOW TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MILDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 400 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WAS ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP AND NEARLY CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT-
OFF IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NY/PA STATE LINE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS BEST
HANDLED WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING
CURRENT RADAR WELL. THIS BAND WILL MEANDER NORTH AND BRING 2-4
INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF
TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY
COUNTIES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY
CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT-
OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD
SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OR SOUTH A BIT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN
WITHOUT BENEFIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS COULD BE REACHED IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS A BIT MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN THAN IN ROCHESTER WHERE CLOUDS MAY LAST LONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOUND BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AND IN THE MID LEVELS WARMING WILL COMMENCE. TO OUR WEST
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL
GATHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THE
MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FORM WITHIN THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMING ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A SIZABLE LOW LEVEL
DRY AIRMASS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY OVERCOME...BUT LATER
IN THE DAY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW TO FALL OVER WNY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CARRIES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS TO THEN
SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR SNOW.
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THERE MAY ALSO BE A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY
EVENING AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA MILDER AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD
WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT STILL YET TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND A SUCH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE FOUND TO START THE DAY...WHILE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS THEN FALLING
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MILDER AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...THESE VALUES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL. IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG A NEARING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LOW LIKELY HERE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THERE MAY EVEN BE A
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS...AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON THE TUG HILL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH... COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND... FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER-
LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE THE START OF APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING.
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE
NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES
WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TRANSITION.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR MOST OF THE LAKESHORES TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
(FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND.
BUFFALO...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909
ROCHESTER...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974
WATERTOWN...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997
NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT. ROCHESTER
WAS 33 DEGREES AT 1 AM SO IT CANNOT BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMTODAY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME SNOW THAT WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 100 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO WAS ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP (NEARLY CLOSED OFF) UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT-OFF
IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS IS BEST HANDLED WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING CURRENT RADAR
WELL AND OTHER GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSE. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH
ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST AFTER THE LOW PASSES THIS MORNING. WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN
PLACE. BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT-OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH
OR SOUTH A BIT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH
CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MESSY WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY... BRINGING SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND FINISHING AS
RAIN.
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL START ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -15C SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EQUATE TO LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME LOW 20S CLOSE TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS & FLURRIES WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IN TEMPERATURES FALLING ANY FARTHER OVERNIGHT. INTO SUNDAY... SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP... HELPING TO ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE EARLY WILL QUICKLY FADE AS DENSE HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OUT OF A ROBUST WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON
WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS FROM ALBERTA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY... A
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND FRONTOGENSIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY. A SECONDARY WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
AID IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE... AND WITH
STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES... CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH A PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST COMES IN FORECASTING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE TYPES OF
EVENT... FAIRLY DRY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. AS PRECIPITATION TRIES TO
OVERSPREAD THIS DRY AIRMASS... IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE THIS
DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERING WITH VIRGA OUT AHEAD OF
THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW... AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL AID IN ANY ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DYNAMICALLY
COOLING BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION STARTS. THUS EXPECT A FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...
BUT MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD PICK UP AROUND AN INCH... WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER... KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUICKLY ERODED OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN.
SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL SEE SNOW CHANGE OVER TO A COUPLE TO A
FEW HOUR WINDOW OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
CONTINUES... 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE FROM AROUND -5C AT THE
START OF THE EVENT TO AROUND +5C BY MONDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH... IF ANY... FREEZING RAIN MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES. COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE... AND IN
AREAS WHERE THAT AIR CAN GET TRAPPED IN VALLEYS IT WILL BE EVEN
SLOWER TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS... AS WELL AS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICING. BEHIND THIS NARROW TRANSITION AREA...
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT... WITH THE ENTIRE AREA OVER
TO RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH IN WESTERN NY... ABOUT A
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN GENESEE VALLEY... AND ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD... WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO M50S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ON MONDAY... BUT WITH
LIGHTER INTENSITY THAN THE MORE STEADY RAIN SEEN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOWEST ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES... WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ALREADY WITH TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF
NOTABLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT 12 HOURS AS IT
DEVELOPS A BAROCLINIC WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN GEM HAVE A MUCH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...
FOR NOW HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK.
STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH...
COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL...
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM
ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK
TO AT OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER-LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN
SINCE THE START OF APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
08Z TO 16Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY LOWERING TO
1-2SM IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING
WITH RADAR/MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE ON
TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE HERE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE
NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES
WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TRANSITION.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE A COMPACT CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
NORTHEASTERLIES/NORTHERLIES AND CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER WAVES TO LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
(FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND.
BUFFALO...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909
ROCHESTER...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974
WATERTOWN...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997
NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST TO
SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK...AND MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 26 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z.
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT
KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z.
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-
031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT
/NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-
042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE
CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR SHORT TERM
POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS OVER NERN
OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AS WELL
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST.
THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW TO TAPER
OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE MORNING
TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO
TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM
EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA
TO ERIE TO YNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS.
DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS
MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START
BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6
TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY
OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS
BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AS THIS
OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40
GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 10 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 525 AM EDT 4/9/16
09Z UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAFS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/HIRES
MODELS AND SFC TEMPS. EXPECT STEADIEST SNOW AND LONGER DURATION
OF IFR VIS OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. DRYSLOT
SHOULD LIMIT IFR AT AOO AND PERHAPS UNV AND HIRES GUIDANCE BREAKS
UP SECOND AREA OF SNOW PIVOTING NW OF SFC LOW TRACK. RISING SFC
TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS SUGGESTS RA/SN MIX
AND IMPROVED VIS BUT HEAVIER PCPN RATES MAY FAVOR SN PTYPE AND IFR
VIS. WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE AMD/S AS NECESSARY AS THE EVENT
CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.
PREVIOUS...SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM
NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND
STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF
SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL
PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING
UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS
TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE
MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO
JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB
AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN
AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE
WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE
EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
512 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z
WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT
-SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN.
THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 66 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z
WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT
-SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN.
THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-
046-049>053-057>059-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD
UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE
NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR
NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN
KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE SFC.
THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN
WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS
DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER
ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z.
SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY
TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF
LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST
CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING.
A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY
12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
HOWEVER...BASED ON UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED
TO EXPAND WINT WX ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME
MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST
ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN
DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA
SUGGESTS.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY
LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH
BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE
LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA
GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY
BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING
WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR
SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS
PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR
FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH
TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW
STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT
RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT
THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z
WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT
-SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN.
THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-
046-049>053-057>059-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD
UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE
NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR
NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN
KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE SFC.
THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN
WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS
DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER
ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z.
SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY
TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF
LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST
CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING.
A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY
12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE
PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE
COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL
SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. HOWEVER...BASED ON
UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND WINT WX
ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF
MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON
THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL
CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA SUGGESTS.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY
LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH
BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE
LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA
GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY
BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING
WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR
SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS
PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR
FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH
TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW
STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT
RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT
THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE DIMINSHED TO GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN SN. STRONG WINDS BECOME A CONCERN LATER SATURDAY
AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLSN
BEING AN ISSUE FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND BRAKING ACTION.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
SAT NGT-SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS/BCMG VFR. DECREASING WINDS.
SUN NGT-AM MON...RAIN/MIX PSBL NRN AIRSPACE.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004-005-010-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-046-049>053-057>059-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ006-011.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
437 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSING ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING
WEST TO EAST AND BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL DIG INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. SUNDAY THE HIGHEST LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS UNDER A FAIRLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER
THIS CAP SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION.
TODAY A BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW LVL JET
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TOMORROW LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE WEST...REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHWEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND THEN SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STREAMER SHOWERS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER
MEXICO COULD MOVE INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE DRY LINE WILL WORK ITS
WAY THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTY MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE VCT AREA.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5-1.75
INCHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS THIS SYSTEM
MORE INTACT THAN THE GFS AS IT KICKS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO REACH WESTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER
MOISTURE NEAR THE AREA...COULD SEE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TUESDAY NIGHT MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OZARKS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 68 80 72 85 / 30 10 10 20 20
VICTORIA 79 64 79 70 84 / 20 10 20 20 40
LAREDO 84 66 89 70 94 / 30 10 10 20 0
ALICE 82 65 84 70 91 / 30 10 10 20 20
ROCKPORT 78 69 77 71 81 / 20 10 20 20 20
COTULLA 82 65 87 68 92 / 30 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 81 67 83 71 88 / 30 10 10 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 77 69 77 72 82 / 30 10 10 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30
San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30
Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT...APART FROM JET-STREAM CIRRUS AND DEBRIS CLOUD
FROM THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LRD AREA. MOS
GUIDANCE STILL INSISTENT THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL DVLP AROUND
07-08Z AT THE TERMINALS...SO WILL PUSH IT OFF ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO AROUND 20KT SUSTAINED. MVFR
CIGS AGAIN POISED TO RETURN LATER THIS EVENING...EXCEPT AT MFE
WHERE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL STAY UP LATER DUE TO A
LOW-LVL JET AND KEEP CIG ABOVE 3KFT AGL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MORE THAN 150 MILES WNW OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE AND DEL RIO TO CORPUS
CHRISTI INDICATE A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING
1.24 INCHES AT KBRO AND 0.78 INCHES AT CRP. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCH LANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO GO
UNDER A LOT OF MODIFICATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR TRACK OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWA. MOST MODEL
PROJECTIONS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QPF/RAINFALL
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH ONLY THE HRRR SPREADING
GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN OUR AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
WITH ALL THIS SAID AND ONLY ONE MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RAIN
WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL CUT BACK ON AREAL
COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MONITOR THE
CONVECTION AND REVIEW THE 00Z MODEL PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY RAIN
WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...LIGHT EAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SPREADING OR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE MVFR CEILING
TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BROKEN CIGS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE MID MORNING SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM SEASON
TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH
DIFFLUENT FIELD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE SW US. CLOUD COVER STARTING
TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO LARGE TOWERS QUITE YET.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CURRENT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE MAIN PEAK TIMING WOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY NE AND DISSIPATING. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES...BUT GOING FORECAST HAS THE
IDEA. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE RACING AWAY FROM THE REGION AT THAT TIME.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT BREEZY WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW STARTING TO RAMP UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN THE HEATING
SOME...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST WHERE ANY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...TRANSIENT...SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM INTERESTING...BUT LIKELY NOT
TREMENDOUSLY EXCITING FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MILD H5 RIDGING
WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO COLORADO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS. A
MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST INFLOW LOOKS LIKELY ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY.
RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW...WILL RESULT
IN PERSISTENT THOUGH ERRATIC NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OUT
OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE
FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL LOWS WILL TROUGH OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AS IT
MOVES EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA SUN
NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...BUT DESPITE THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW...
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP STABILIZE CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW WILL ALSO TROUGH OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE PROCESS...WITH THE
HELP OF A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS
THE FRONT AND REMAINING UPPER ENERGY FOCUS OVER THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NO STRONG DRYING
TREND WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT AS EAST WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK THOUGH POPS REMAIN MOSTLY SILENT FOR NOW.
DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN
SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...IN REACTION TO PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MID
LEVEL TROUGH LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK NEAR NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SNEAK A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW RAMPS UP DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL
REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING SWELLS...STARTING AT 3 FEET TONIGHT REACHING 6 FEET BY
SUNSET SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL
INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE A TIGHT
LOCAL GRADIENT...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING. AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST...MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO
MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53-SCHROEDER/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
343 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO MOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE
WEATHER THIS MORNING IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY AROUND 30N
125W OR 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS HAS ABSORBED
THE OLD LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV WHICH IS
NOW ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THIS IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. THESE MAY PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGS SOME
SHOWERS TO MENDOCINO COUNTY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS QUITE MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MENDOCINO COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AND BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...BUT THEY ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME MAY FORM OVER THE
YOLLA BOLLYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
AND POSSIBLY ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW MOST OF
THE SHOWERS STOPPING SHORT OF THE AREA OR JUST OVER THE INTERIOR
HILLS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE SO WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO EXACT ON THE
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO
THE FLOW AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIVES DOWN AND STARTS TO BECOME A NEW CUTOFF LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS ON MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
AND STARTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO TO THE COAST. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING DRIER HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER
WEATHER AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3500 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. MKK
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDINESS HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION REFLECTING THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS BUT
ALSO DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TODAY AT KUKI DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS AT TIMES REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET
RANGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
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SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND WELL EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL THEN SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WAS EMERGING FROM THE DELMARVA AT 14Z PER MSAS.
WATER VAPOR PLACED THE UPR LOW OVER WRN PA. TSTMS EVIDENT OVER THE
GULF STREAM...WITH THE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS
CNTRL NJ SPREADING NWD.
DRY AMS OVER THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. EXPECT SOME
EROSION OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS IT APPROACHED THE REGION AS A
RESULT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM KEEP THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN S OF
THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR ANY BANDING THIS
EVE.
BANDS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...AS WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE ABV 1000FT OUTSIDE OF ANY INTENSE BANDING.
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR TODAY AND REDUCED SNOWFALL THRU 18Z
FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES THEREAFTER...HOWEVER
THE RAP SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS ERN LI AFT
00Z...WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THIS
SOLN YET ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING
EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING CONDS ON BREEZY N/NW
FLOW.
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY IN THE
EVENING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FREEZE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TAP WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SW FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
NORTH OF NY STATE AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THAT FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AS THAT WARM FRONT APPROACHES...
SOME MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY...AND THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE 50S AND WILL APPROACH 60 IN SOME AREAS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND
THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WINDS
DOWN DURING THAT TIME.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH JERSEY COAST AS OF 15Z MOVES EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
VFR WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
LGT RA MIXES WITH SN AT TIMES AS...THOUGH EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS IT`S UNLIKELY FOR ACCUMULATION ON
RUNWAYS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SOME SLUSH THAT MIGHT
REQUIRE TREATMENT. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR (IF IT DOES) WOULD BE
20-22Z IN THE NY METRO.
NE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE JERSEY COAST. EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE
IN WIND AROUND 00-01Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
AT THE LOW INTENSIFIES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NGT-TUE...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. SW WINDS
G20-30KT POSSIBLE EARLY MON MORN THROUGH MON EVE.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS NNW AND INCREASE. SCA
CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS LEADING UP TO
INCREASING WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. GALES ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING SEAS AND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25KT SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA ONCE GALES ARE
OVER.
THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER
THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND. GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25KT OTHERWISE WILL
BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS. SCA THEREFORE FOR
TONIGHT. A GUST OR TWO TO 25KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS...BUT SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALL DAY.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY. STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS AND SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON MONDAY.
COLD FRONT THEN WORKS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONDS SLOWLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED
ON THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PRECIP OR LESS
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH 1/4 INCH
ACROSS NE NJ/NYC METRO AND LI. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LI AND
NYC/NJ METRO SEEING 1/2 INCH OF QPF. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUE ARE
EXPECTED.
ABOUT 1/2 INCH QPF POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEING THE
LOWER HIGH TIDE...AND EASTERLY FLOW STILL RAMPING UP...WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS.
WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES STILL RUNNING HIGH...AND ONLY 1/2 TO 1
1/2 FT POSITIVE DEPARTURES NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LI WITH TONIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS SURGE WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE N/NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP WATER
LEVELS JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AN EMERGENCY ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM REPLACEMENT AT WFO NEW YORK
IS SCHEDULED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED DURING THAT TIME...AND SERVICE
BACKUP WILL BE PROVIDED BY WFO MOUNT HOLLY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from
Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was
advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure
trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure
gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides
off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20
mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the
higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will
warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today.
Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns
for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire
weather section.
Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases
to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This
should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east
central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become
zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move
across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead
wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while
the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight.
Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east
central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later
tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear
will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers.
Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of
an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early
Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in
cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area.
Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most
precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern
areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the
70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than
1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few
pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on
south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak
isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern
Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but
northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri
Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent
mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in
the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the
stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface
still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime
radiational cooling in check.
The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing
western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally.
A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains
around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring
until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable
differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough
agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs
return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At
this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will start
out from the east around 10 kts, then veer to the southeast and
increase to 15 kts with gusts to 24kts by 18Z. Winds south to
southwest after 06Z around 15 kts. TSRA should remain south of the
terminals in the 09Z-12Z time period, so left out for now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens
across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially
from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high.
Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the
slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution
which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the
northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the
afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture
recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this
afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where
moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH
increases through the afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this
evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
648 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in
the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region.
Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning
bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures
will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings
are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks,
where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s.
South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer
night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out
east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday
morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north.
This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this
episode of convection.
While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not
suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape -
deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is
probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up
to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear
ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts
organized.
We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention
large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph
possible.
We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a
localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected
to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training
thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning.
Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a
multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also
expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by
Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in
response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over
the nation`s midsection.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
High pressure over the region this morning will remain in control
of the areas weather through the day. An approaching storm system
will shift surface winds out of the south late tonight and for the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the vicinity
of the regions terminals during the overnight hours into Sunday
morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
648 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in
the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region.
Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning
bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures
will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings
are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks,
where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s.
South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer
night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out
east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday
morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north.
This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this
episode of convection.
While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not
suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape -
deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is
probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up
to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear
ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts
organized.
We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention
large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph
possible.
We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a
localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected
to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training
thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning.
Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a
multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also
expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by
Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in
response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over
the nation`s midsection.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
High pressure over the region this morning will remain in control
of the areas weather through the day. An approaching storm system
will shift surface winds out of the south late tonight and for the
overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the vicinity
of the regions terminals during the overnight hours into Sunday
morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this
morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along
and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in
northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional
temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze
warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area,
until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the
freezing mark later this morning.
Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900
hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further
reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming
temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help
highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by
late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20
percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire
danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid
Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels
could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution
should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames.
Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight
as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains.
Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight
hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight
due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few
showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an
approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a
substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon.
Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help
to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another
round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving
cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly
unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat
should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop
in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the
region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but
should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation
chances beyond midday Monday.
Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but
model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and
not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will
start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values
by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance
of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the
associated trough will likely change several times between now and
then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light
east winds will gradually increase and veer to the southeast by mid
to late morning, reaching sustained speeds between 12 and 15 kts for
the afternoon and evening. High-based stratus will begin to build in
while winds veer to the southwest and increase slightly after sunset,
signaling the return of moisture to the region. A few showers and
perhaps an isolated storm are possible just beyond the end of the TAF
period, but most thunderstorm activity will focus south of the TAF
sites Sunday and beyond.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this
morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along
and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in
northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional
temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze
warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area,
until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the
freezing mark later this morning.
Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900
hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further
reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming
temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help
highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by
late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20
percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire
danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid
Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels
could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution
should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames.
Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight
as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains.
Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight
hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight
due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few
showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an
approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a
substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon.
Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help
to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another
round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving
cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly
unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat
should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop
in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the
region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but
should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation
chances beyond midday Monday.
Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but
model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and
not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will
start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values
by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance
of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the
associated trough will likely change several times between now and
then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light
east winds will gradually increase and veer to the southeast by mid
to late morning, reaching sustained speeds between 12 and 15 kts for
the afternoon and evening. High-based stratus will begin to build in
while winds veer to the southwest and increase slightly after sunset,
signaling the return of moisture to the region. A few showers and
perhaps an isolated storm are possible just beyond the end of the TAF
period, but most thunderstorm activity will focus south of the TAF
sites Sunday and beyond.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
544 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest
temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in
COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly
surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east-
southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew
points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface
ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon,
allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become
southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along
with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection
this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range
from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s
across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees
below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof
deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the
Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to
increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and
moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM.
NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers
over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by
12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of
precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA.
Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low
level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection
on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z
and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide
portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to
likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The
focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the
cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move
southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the
GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with
storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more
in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier
precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern
Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along
and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out
of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday.
Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and
dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look
to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of
the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday
and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a
more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Surface ridge extending from MN south into northern MO will shift
southeastward. Light surface winds will become sely this afternoon
as the surface ridge shifts east of the area, then strengthen
tonight as the surface pressure gradient tightens and a swly low
level jet moves into the area. There may be LLWS conditions
tonight. Little cloud cover is expected today with increasing mid
level cloudiness tonight. Showers may move into COU late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Light surface winds this morning will become
sely this afternoon, then strengthen tonight. The surface wind
will become sly Sunday morning. Mid level cloudiness will move
into the area tonight with the cloud ceiling possibly dropping
into the MVFR catagory Sunday morning as showers and a few storms
move into the area.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90
Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70
Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80
Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80
Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80
Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
544 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest
temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in
COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly
surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east-
southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew
points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface
ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon,
allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become
southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along
with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection
this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range
from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s
across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees
below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof
deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the
Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to
increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and
moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM.
NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers
over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by
12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of
precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA.
Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low
level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection
on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z
and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide
portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to
likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The
focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the
cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move
southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the
GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with
storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more
in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier
precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern
Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along
and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out
of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday.
Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and
dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look
to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of
the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday
and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a
more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Surface ridge extending from MN south into northern MO will shift
southeastward. Light surface winds will become sely this afternoon
as the surface ridge shifts east of the area, then strengthen
tonight as the surface pressure gradient tightens and a swly low
level jet moves into the area. There may be LLWS conditions
tonight. Little cloud cover is expected today with increasing mid
level cloudiness tonight. Showers may move into COU late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Light surface winds this morning will become
sely this afternoon, then strengthen tonight. The surface wind
will become sly Sunday morning. Mid level cloudiness will move
into the area tonight with the cloud ceiling possibly dropping
into the MVFR catagory Sunday morning as showers and a few storms
move into the area.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90
Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70
Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80
Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80
Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80
Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this
morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along
and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in
northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional
temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze
warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area,
until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the
freezing mark later this morning.
Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900
hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further
reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming
temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help
highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by
late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20
percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire
danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid
Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels
could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution
should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames.
Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight
as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains.
Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight
hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight
due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few
showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an
approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a
substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon.
Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help
to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another
round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving
cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly
unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat
should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop
in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the
region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but
should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation
chances beyond midday Monday.
Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but
model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and
not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will
start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values
by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance
of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the
associated trough will likely change several times between now and
then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds
initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast
through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from
this afternoon and into the late evening hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest
temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in
COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly
surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east-
southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew
points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface
ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon,
allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become
southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along
with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection
this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range
from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s
across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees
below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof
deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the
Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to
increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and
moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM.
NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers
over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by
12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of
precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA.
Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low
level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection
on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z
and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide
portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to
likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The
focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the
cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move
southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the
GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with
storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more
in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier
precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern
Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along
and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out
of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday.
Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and
dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look
to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of
the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday
and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a
more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into
the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon.
They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as
clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are
expected to hold off until after the valid period.
TES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90
Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70
Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80
Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80
Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80
Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in
the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region.
Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning
bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures
will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings
are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks,
where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s.
South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer
night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out
east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday
morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north.
This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this
episode of convection.
While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not
suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape -
deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is
probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up
to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear
ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts
organized.
We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention
large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph
possible.
We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a
localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected
to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training
thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning.
Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a
multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also
expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by
Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in
response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over
the nation`s midsection.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight
through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east.
Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on
Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low
level wind shear develops.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds
initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast
through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from
this afternoon and into the late evening hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds
initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast
through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from
this afternoon and into the late evening hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight
through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east.
Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on
Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low
level wind shear develops.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight
through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east.
Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on
Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low
level wind shear develops.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1138 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having
occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually
diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas
north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to
allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save
some pockets of the STL urban heat island.
A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures
making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into
the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon.
They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as
clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are
expected to hold off until after the valid period.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
900 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having
occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually
diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas
north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to
allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save
some pockets of the STL urban heat island.
A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures
making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening
and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging
as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE
Saturday evening.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
637 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening
and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging
as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE
Saturday evening.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Light northerly
winds initially will continue veering to the east overnight before
shifting to the southeast after 12z. Speeds will increase after
sunrise with sustained winds of 12-16 kts likely through the late
morning and afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...00z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with
light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the
southeast tomorrow by mid day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...00z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with
light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the
southeast tomorrow by mid day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 31 51 46 65 / 5 0 10 50
Quincy 23 48 42 64 / 5 0 20 60
Columbia 28 54 47 67 / 5 0 20 50
Jefferson City 27 56 48 69 / 5 0 20 50
Salem 27 48 39 64 / 10 0 10 50
Farmington 27 53 42 66 / 5 0 20 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102-103.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-104-105.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-038>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ037-043-053-
054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
326 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1151 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the
northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region.
Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from
northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak
instability and this activity will continue into parts of our
northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into
synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most
of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be
out of our area by 00z.
Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with
humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but
stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses.
Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential
Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
909 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER SUNSHINE AS A
MOISTURE LIMITED CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA SKIRTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. VERY COLD AIR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM SATURDAY...MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTN
UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS NC ZONES...AND 30-35 ACROSS SC. BOTH BUFR WIND
PROFILES AS WELL AS RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WILL TAP A
40-45 KT JET...AND THIS SHOULD EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 10AM THROUGH
4PM...AND ONCE THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS WINDS WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 636 AM SATURDAY...THE DOORS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL OPEN
UP TODAY IN WAKE OF A TRANSITING DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR TO SPILL SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC...AS A CLIPPER
LOW MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE
FREEZE WARNING AND WATCH CONFIGURATION...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO RAISE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING OVER INLAND
GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES...AND WILL ALLOW THE LUXURY
OF ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO FINE TUNE THE LAY-OUT WITH REGARD TO OUR
VERY SOUTHERN SC COUNTIES. NO WIND ADVISORY PLANNED TODAY DESPITE
ISOLATED GUSTY CONDITIONS...LOCAL CRITERIA STANDS AT...31-39 MPH
SUSTAINED FOR AN HOUR OR ANY GUSTS OF 46-57 MPH...AND BELIEVE WE
WILL BE SHY OF THAT. THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER HOWEVER AND THIS IS DISCUSSED AT LENGTH IN THE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.
RECORD LOWS FOR FOR APRIL 10TH INCLUDE ILM 31 IN 2007...FLO 28 IN
1996...AND CRE 33 IN 1996. THESE RECORDS ARE VERY NEAR FORECAST
VALUES FOR EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE LEADING WEATHER HEADLINE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL A NEAR RECORD COLD START DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A 40 DEGREE WARM UP A LITTLE OVER 30 HOURS LATER DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY RISE WELL INTO THE
70S. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
AND HEAT-INDUCED CUMULUS MONDAY IN THE WARMING TREND...NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE IS EXPECTED IN FAIR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PASSES NEAR...BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE END OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL COME
ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL SHOOT BACK UP OVER
1.25 INCHES IN INCREASING S-SW WINDS. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
INCREASED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO TUES EVE.
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW POST FROPA WED THROUGH FRI...GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE NE. MODELS DEFINITELY SHOW SOME
INCONSISTENCIES WHEN IT COMES TO MID WEEK BUT FALL BACK IN LINE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. THE LATEST
GFS KEEPS SHORTWAVE RIDING WAY SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST FOR
THE CAROLINAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WINNING OUT. BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS
LOW UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THURS INTO FRI WITH MORE OF A
WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
WITH HIGH BUILDING DOWN FOR WED AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS
ON THURS. BEST CHC OF PCP WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURS
INTO FRI BUT WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FORECAST FOR NOW WITH LOW END
POPS THURS INTO FRI.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON TUES...MID 70S MOST
PLACES. POST FROPA...EXPECT COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WED THROUGH
THURS BUT TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUN THERE IS. BETTER
CHC OF CLOUDS AND LOW END PCP WED AND THURS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
60S BUT BY FRI OR DEFINITELY BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO
THE 70S AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS TO BE AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ABATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND AROUND SUNSET ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM SATURDAY...AFTER REVIEW OF LATEST SOUNDINGS AND
VWP...HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ250 AND AMZ252 FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KTS THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE SCA REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR THE SC WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 636 AM SATURDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS
TODAY BECAUSE OF W WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER WINDS TO
THE NW AS COLD AIR SETS IN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE LATE TONIGHT AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL SETTLE NEARLY AS
QUICKLY SO THE ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VASTLY IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL EASE
WINDS TO 15 KT OR LESS BOTH DAYS AS WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SETS OFF TO SEA. ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FOOT SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. NO SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD WAVES OF DISTANT ORIGIN
ARE SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT SPECTRAL BULLETINS AT FRYING PAN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH UP TO 15 KTS. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH
TO KICK SEAS UP A BIT...FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY TUES UP TO 3 TO
4 FT BY TUES NIGHT. ONCE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES
NIGHT...WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH...VEERING TO THE N-NE
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE WATERS. THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP A LITTLE FURTHER...UP TO
4 TO 5 FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.
INCREASING W-NW WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH. AT
THE SAME TIME...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.
THIS COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MEET
RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NORTH CAROLINA
FORESTRY OFFICIALS...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO
8 PM...WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM.
ALTHOUGH METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILARLY DANGEROUS TO
FIRES ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FUEL MOISTURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AND JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SOUTH
CAROLINA FORESTRY...AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED
RATHER THAN AN RFW. THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA FOR TODAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-053.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ039-055.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>107-109.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...MJC/JDW/RGZ
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
MORNING. THE NAM/EC LOOK TO VERIFY THIS QUITE WELL BUT THE GFS
LOOKS TOO DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER-PERFOMING COMPARED TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THICK CIRRUS
NORTH IS PROBABLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK THERE A BIT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY...TRENDING TEMPS JUST A LITTLE LOWER. BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CURRENT WIND HAZARDS ALSO
LOOK GOOD. WILL FRESHEN THESE UP ALSO BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL
HAZARD. ADJUSTED SKY COVER HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE
IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC...
AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 29 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z.
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT
KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-
031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
COLD TEMPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
ARE NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF SOME LOW
POPS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE FOR HIGHS...WITH THE RAP AND GFS TRYING TO BUMP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO THE 50 MARK WHILE OTHER MODELS BARELY GET
OUT OF THE 20S. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MID DAY UPDATE. WINDS
ARE RAMPING UP AND STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR THE ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT KDVL WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS YET. THIS GRADIENT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE SOME CIRRUS
OVER THE AREA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS A RESULT OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...SEEING THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY TIGHTENING UP OVER WESTERN ND WITH
SOUTH-SE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ONLY SEEING
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z SUN...BRINGING THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...ONLY NEGATIVE WOULD BE THAT WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...OR OVER 40 KNOTS
AT 925MB OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY.
OTHER MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO NORTH
VALLEY COMPONENT IS THERE.
COULD BE MARGINAL AT TIMES BUT DEFINITELY THINK IT IS WORTH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST. IN
THESE SITUATIONS THE WORST WINDS ARE TYPICALLY FROM KCKN UP TOWARD
KHCO AND PEMBINA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. AS THE SFC LOW WORKS INTO CENTRAL ND
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IT WILL BRING A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH IT AS WELL AS WESTERLY WINDS. NEITHER OF THESE LOOK
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SO AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
LARGE SW TO NE HIGH TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FA. MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT
THEY DO SHOW A SLIGHT POTENTIAL UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TOWARD
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAD
SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THIS AREA SO WILL KEEP THOSE GOING. AS
THE SFC LOW OR SFC LOWS MOVE THRU THE FA TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN UP AROUND THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW AROUND THE NORTHEAST FA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE FA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT ALSO MEANS SOME CHILLY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
BY TUE MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA REMAINS THERE BUT ALSO WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR WED. TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE FOR THU AND DECREASED
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AT
KDVL/KGFK/KFAR AND KTVF...WITH LESS EFFECTS AT KBJI. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO REMAIN THAT WAY THRU THE DAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO KDVL
AROUND 03Z-06Z SUN AND KGFK/KFAR AROUND 06-09Z...WHICH WILL BEGIN
A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT
THESE NW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING
SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL
BUT EITHER WAY VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 30-35
PERCENT AND WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE HIGHER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-008-016-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE
IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC...
AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 29 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z.
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT
KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z.
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-
031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
808 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOULD END IN THE TOLEDO AREA SHORTLY
BUT HESITATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY HEADLINE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS ON
THE OBSERVATION. 6AM KTOL WAS STILL REPORTED 1 1/2SM IN SNOW SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE CIRCULATION
APPEARS ON RADAR TO BE CENTERED NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST FLOW
FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE. DRIER AIR/NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW IS
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHERLY WITH THE SAME EFFECT. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO
DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING IN TO THE AFTERNOON WITH -14C
OVER THE AREA AT 850MB.
ORIGINAL...WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR
SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS
OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER
WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE
MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO
TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM
EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA
TO ERIE TO YNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS.
DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS
MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START
BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6
TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY
OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS
BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEAVY SNOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
CAK/YNG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
OUT OF MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT SITES IN NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...MAINLY 14-18Z. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE IN THE 22-
00Z WINDOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
650 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOULD END IN THE TOLEDO AREA SHORTLY
BUT HESITATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY HEADLINE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS ON
THE OBSERVATION. 6AM KTOL WAS STILL REPORTED 1 1/2SM IN SNOW SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE CIRCULATION
APPEARS ON RADAR TO BE CENTERED NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST FLOW
FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE. DRIER AIR/NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW IS
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHERLY WITH THE SAME EFFECT. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO
DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING IN TO THE AFTERNOON WITH -14C
OVER THE AREA AT 850MB.
ORIGINAL...WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR
SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS
OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER
WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE
MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO
TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM
EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA
TO ERIE TO YNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS.
DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS
MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START
BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6
TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY
OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS
BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AS THIS
OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
826 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FURTHER NE THIS MORNING FOR
THE LINE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE FA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH
DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40
GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 20 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH
DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40
GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 10 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
809 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/12Z TAFS THROUGH 10/12Z | ISSUED 755 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENEWD FROM SOUTHEAST PA TO OFFSHORE THE
NJ COAST. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LIFT HAS FOSTERED A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK. DRY-AIR SLOT SHOULD KEEP JST/AOO ABOVE IFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHSN WRAP INTO THE AREA TOWARD MID DAY.
PERSISTENCE FCST AT BFD/IPT WITH SOLID IFR OR LOWER THRU 16Z.
EXTENT AND DURATION OF IFR/LIFR STILL IN QUESTION INVOF MDT/LNS
AS PCPN EXPANDS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE NJ
COAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS FROM 360-330 BEHIND THE LOW
WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE
EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AT
RGV TERMINALS IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS
MOVING OUT TOWARD THE EAST ATTM. MOS GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS VERY WELL AT ALL. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SCT LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. SE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO
BREEZY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH AS TRANSIENT UPR RIDGE FORMS A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION ABOVE THE SFC LAYER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ENDING
BY MID-MORNING...IF NOT BEFORE...AS DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TIMING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
INHERITED GRIDS REFLECT THIS QUITE WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO
POP/WX.
SERLY BREEZES RETURN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MOST
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMALS.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK H5 RIDGING MOVES IN...WITH LOW
TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE CWFA. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...SO
WINDS COULD STAY LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS MID-LVL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
WSW. WESTERN STARR AND ZAPATA COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
F IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SERLY WINDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
COURTESY OF A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST 500 MB FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND RELATIVELY DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NO
MAJOR COLD FRONT PASSAGES WILL ENSURE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH
AND TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SCEC-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
FOR GULF WATERS TODAY. CURRENT SEAS OF AROUND 3FT WILL BUILD TO NR
6FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN NR THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIKELY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53-SCHROEDER/66
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West
Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the
most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any
reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings
will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest
that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after
midnight and continue through sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30
San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30
Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE MAINLY TO
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AN AREA OF SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT
THE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MAY HELP TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
09Z TONIGHT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF
DRY BELOW 700 MB SO SOME/MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TODAY AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AS PRESSURES OVER WEST
TEXAS START TO DROP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. 850-700 LAYER WINDS
BECOME SW ON SUNDAY AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL DEVELOP.
LOW LEVEL MSTR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN BENEATH THE INVERSION AND CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING BENEATH THE CAP. WILL
CARRY 20 POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.20-1.30 INCHES AND THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP
DEEPENS TO 850 MB.
THE CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS RATHER STOUT ON MONDAY MORNING BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ERODE THE CAP BY 18Z. 850-700 MB WINDS REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE CAP WILL
ACTUALLY ERODE. THAT SAID...THERE IS A WEAK S/WV THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE AFTN AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP WEAKEN
THE CAP...BUT JUST NOT SURE IF THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE CAP
THIS FAR SOUTH. IF THE CAP ERODES...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE NORTH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
OVER THE NORTH (NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE) INCLUDE
CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...LI`S OF -9...SWEAT INDEX OF 370 AND
TT`S OF 52-55. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX IN
MARGINAL RISK FOR MONDAY. THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION LOOKS TOO STRONG TO ERODE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-10. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE S/W SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS MON NITE INTO TUES.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX ON TUESDAY MORNING BUT LIMITED MSTR
AND A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SO CALIF EARLY TUESDAY AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP OCCURING ON WEDNESDAY. JET DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
NEARS TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL INDUCE A COASTAL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.70-1.80 INCHES AND FCST SOUNDINGS
BECOME SATURATED. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DEEP
MSTR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FAVORS HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL
TROUGH EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A SFC LOW AND PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THU/FRI. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES NEXT SAT
OR SUN. 43
MARINE...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE STATE AND ALLOW
FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF
FREEPORT AND BEYOND 20 NM MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THIS SAME PATTERN OF DAYTIME CAUTION AND NIGHTTIME ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST
EITHER LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
40
FIRE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AND
RETURN GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. STILL...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT EAST OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. GIVEN THAT SOME MIXING MAY
OCCUR...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD IF THE WINDS PICKUP MORE
THAN THE EXPECTED 5 TO 10 MPH.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 59 80 68 81 / 20 10 10 20 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 63 80 69 81 / 20 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 68 76 71 77 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West
Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the
most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any
reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings
will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest
that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after
midnight and continue through sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30
San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30
Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT SUITE OF HEADLINES IN
PLACE. THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10AM...FOLLOWED
BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT WEST AT NOON.
MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MULTIPLE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A LITTLE BLEED
OVER TO THE EAST. HIGHEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TODAY
WILL ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OUT THE BLUE RIDGE UNDER PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR
60MPH FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT GUSTS NEAR 50MPH
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE TO MAKE IT OUT
OF THE 30S WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FURTHER EAST.
PREVIOUS AFD...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE CLIPPER TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR
EARLY APRIL WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
WITH RESPECT TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...WPC HAS LOWERED THE SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND PULLED THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS WELL.
AMOUNTS ADVERTISED ARE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...SHOULD ALLOW
AMOUNTS TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA WESTERN GREENBRIER AND
LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL REPORTS YET UP TO
THIS HOUR. AS OF NOW...HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A HANDFUL OF UNOFFICIAL
REPORTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. HOWEVER...TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING THE
WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...WILL LEAVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
WILL ALSO LEAVE FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE AND UPGRADE THE HARD
FREEZE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING. 28 DEGREES DURING THE
GROWING SEASON...AS ESTABLISHED FOR CERTAIN COUNTIES IN THE
CWA...CONSTITUTES A HARD FREEZE. GIVEN ALL OF THE UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH WE SAW IN MARCH...THE GROWING SEASON STARTED VERY EARLY AND
THUS THE ADVERTISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY PREMATURE BLOOMING/BUDDING
VEGETATION.
WITH RESPECT TO WIND...MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
40-50KT NW LLJ TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE MID-MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SO AM LEAVING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS.
STILL NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE EVENT WE SAW A WEEK AGO TODAY. WITH
RESPECT TO THE WIND ADVISORY...OUR LOCAL WIND TOOL SUGGESTS THAT
THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THAT AREA AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MOUNTAINS...RISING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S PIEDMONT...A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
AFTER A SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A WARMER SOUTH FLOW AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME TO A HALT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO THE FRONT STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM SOUTHWEST
WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO ARRIVE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA THAN THE
00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
TAKING UP MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS VARY
SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE MODELS...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS AN
APPROPRIATE AMOUNT GIVEN THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOT EXITING UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WITH AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY AND
COOLER WX EXPECTED. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY POTENTIALL GENERATING
A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE FL GULF COAST TO OFF THE
NC COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE
BACK UP OUR WAY THURSDAY BUT KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHORT
WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING BANDS OF FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS WE COULD HAVE A
FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS BEFORE THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANY REDUCTION TO VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
THROUGH 15Z...THEN BEGIN TO DECEASE. THE KLWB AREA MAY BE THE LAST
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE KROA/KLYH AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LARGELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
SPREADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS OF EASTERN
WV...BUT LOOKING FOR ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. STRONG LLJ WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS 40-45KTS AT TIMES...NEAR 60KTS AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET
AND BE 5 MPH OR LESS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH COULD
BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN -SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA
TODAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY COORDINATED WITH
USFS TO ESTABLISH THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING...THUS NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO
COOL AND WITH SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER WEST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL DEFER DECISION TO DAY SHIFT
AS TO WHETHER ANY COUNTIES FURTHER WEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
NEED AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND FUELS MAY BE TOO WET INITIALLY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY.
SATURDAY 04/09/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 18 1972 32 1985
KDAN 26 1972 44 2003
KLYH 24 2007 38 1927
KROA 22 1972 38 1927
KRNK 17 1972 36 1956
SUNDAY 04/10/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 20 1997 35 1960
KDAN 25 1985 44 2003
KLYH 20 1985 41 1894
KROA 20 1985 41 1918
KRNK 16 1985 37 1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR VAZ009-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ007.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047-
058-059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-
020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB
FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP
CLIMATE...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
750 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE CLIPPER TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR
EARLY APRIL WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
WITH RESPECT TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...WPC HAS LOWERED THE SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND PULLED THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS WELL.
AMOUNTS ADVERTISED ARE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...SHOULD ALLOW
AMOUNTS TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA WESTERN GREENBRIER AND
LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL REPORTS YET UP TO
THIS HOUR. AS OF NOW...HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A HANDFUL OF UNOFFICIAL
REPORTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. HOWEVER...TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING THE
WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...WILL LEAVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
WILL ALSO LEAVE FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE AND UPGRADE THE HARD
FREEZE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING. 28 DEGREES DURING THE
GROWING SEASON...AS ESTABLISHED FOR CERTAIN COUNTIES IN THE
CWA...CONSTITUTES A HARD FREEZE. GIVEN ALL OF THE UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH WE SAW IN MARCH...THE GROWING SEASON STARTED VERY EARLY AND
THUS THE ADVERTISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY PREMATURE BLOOMING/BUDDING
VEGETATION.
WITH RESPECT TO WIND...MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
40-50KT NW LLJ TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE MID-MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SO AM LEAVING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS.
STILL NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE EVENT WE SAW A WEEK AGO TODAY. WITH
RESPECT TO THE WIND ADVISORY...OUR LOCAL WIND TOOL SUGGESTS THAT
THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THAT AREA AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MOUNTAINS...RISING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S PIEDMONT...A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
AFTER A SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A WARMER SOUTH FLOW AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME TO A HALT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO THE FRONT STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM SOUTHWEST
WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO ARRIVE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA THAN THE
00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
TAKING UP MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS VARY
SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE MODELS...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS AN
APPROPRIATE AMOUNT GIVEN THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOT EXITING UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WITH AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY AND
COOLER WX EXPECTED. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY POTENTIALL GENERATING
A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE FL GULF COAST TO OFF THE
NC COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE
BACK UP OUR WAY THURSDAY BUT KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHORT
WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING BANDS OF FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS WE COULD HAVE A
FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS BEFORE THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANY REDUCTION TO VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
THROUGH 15Z...THEN BEGIN TO DECEASE. THE KLWB AREA MAY BE THE LAST
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE KROA/KLYH AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LARGELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
SPREADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS OF EASTERN
WV...BUT LOOKING FOR ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. STRONG LLJ WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS 40-45KTS AT TIMES...NEAR 60KTS AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET
AND BE 5 MPH OR LESS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH COULD
BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN -SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA
TODAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY COORDINATED WITH
USFS TO ESTABLISH THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING...THUS NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO
COOL AND WITH SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER WEST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL DEFER DECISION TO DAY SHIFT
AS TO WHETHER ANY COUNTIES FURTHER WEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
NEED AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND FUELS MAY BE TOO WET INITIALLY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY.
SATURDAY 04/09/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 18 1972 32 1985
KDAN 26 1972 44 2003
KLYH 24 2007 38 1927
KROA 22 1972 38 1927
KRNK 17 1972 36 1956
SUNDAY 04/10/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 20 1997 35 1960
KDAN 25 1985 44 2003
KLYH 20 1985 41 1894
KROA 20 1985 41 1918
KRNK 16 1985 37 1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR VAZ009-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ007.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047-
058-059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-
020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...AMS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB
FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP
CLIMATE...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
246 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER THE VTU COUNTY COAST AND VLYS TO THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.40 INCH PER HOUR OBSERVED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH PEAK RATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OR MORE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE RECENT BURN AREAS OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT (LAXFFALOX) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
7000 FEET THRU TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR THE
COAST AND VLYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF SRN CA WILL MOVE E TO
THE FAR SRN CA COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUN...REACHING
AZ BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SRN CA CST SUN AND MOVE WELL S OF THE AREA ON
MON. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA
THRU MON. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN CA ON TUE.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SUN INTO SUN EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON IN THE
MTNS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUN MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS...AND SUN
EVENING IN THE MTNS...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE CST/VLYS OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THRU SUN EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25
TO 0.75 INCH OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...BUT AMOUNTS NEAR AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE MTNS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH. SNOWFALL OF UP TO 5 TO
10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500
FEET... OTHERWISE ELEVATIONS OF 7000 TO 7500 FEET COULD SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES.
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY MON AFTERNOON. THE NAM KEEPS DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS
MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MTNS INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE. LOCALLY GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE COAST TO THE MTNS
AND DESERTS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA THRU MON...TEMPS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
DUE TO COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. TEMPS SHOULD TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE THANKS TO THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGING AND A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE PEEKING THRU THE
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
THE GFS/EC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHO SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FRI AND SAT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
E PAC WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA CST ON WED...THEN MOVE INLAND
MAINLY OVER NRN AND CENTRAL CA ON THU...WITH FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROF. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
INLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN FRI AND SAT...ALTHO THE GFS WAS SLOWER
THAN THE EC WITH THIS FEATURE. A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO SWRN CA ON THU FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WED
THRU SAT. THE UPPER TROF WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...MTNS AND
DESERTS FOR THU AND FRI. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO TURN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WED...AND COOLER STILL ON THU TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A WARMUP IS FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...09/1800Z.
AT 1800Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH NO TRUE MARINE
INVERSION.
THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CIG
CATS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDS. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS...CONDS WILL BE
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES. CIG CATS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR...WITH A 10 TO
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
E WINDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 8 KNOTS BEFORE 20Z.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES. CIG CATS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR...WITH A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...09/200 PM.
SE TO S WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND WATERSPOUTS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES
40-44-45-54-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
234 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.Synopsis...
A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state
through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Mountain
showers will likely continue early next week with another round of
showers over the entire north state around mid week. Snow levels
remain high for minimal mountain travel impacts.
&&
.Discussion...
Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue
to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior. The
main area continues to be from around I-80 southward with isolated
showers and sprinkles are occurring to the north. The HRRR model
indicates a band developing around Plumas/Shasta counties this
evening then moving into the central and northern Sacramento
valley. I left in a slight chance of thunderstorms over parts of
Plumas and Shasta counties. Further south showers should continue
to move westward into the valley.
The low will slowly move inland over the next 24 hours with
little change in the weather expected over Northern California.
Another low pressure area will drop southward on Sunday off the
coast to help keep unsettled weather over the area into Monday.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves through the far northern end of the
State and may bring some showers to the north end of the valley
and mountains.
Snow levels will continue to be high with only the higher peaks
getting some snow.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Models in a little better agreement with latest runs as next trough
drops SE into the Pac NW by middle of the week. A few mountain
showers are possible Wednesday as weak shortwave ahead of trough
moves through NorCal. Have cut back POPs during this timeframe as
main trough likely won`t move through until later Wednesday into
Thursday. More widespread precipitation possible with this wave. Model
solutions still painting heaviest precip across the mountains with
lesser amounts in the Valley. Most notable aspect with this
system is colder air given origin in Gulf of Alaska. This will
drop snow levels to between 4500-5500 feet which could cause some
travel headaches across the mountains. Temperatures will also be
cooler than the start of the week. Ridging then builds in for
Friday into the weekend with drier weather and warming trend in
temperatures.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers will continue through the TAF period, heaviest
across southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys. This will
lead to MVFR conditions across TAF sites with brief periods of IFR
cigs in heavier showers. Winds generally 10 kts or less.
CEO/Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. DRY AND
A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. WARMER AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST STRENGTHENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH IS POISED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
MORNING SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED THAT DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
AREA...WITH PW DOWN TO 0.76 INCHES. HOWEVER...ONE LOOK AT RADAR AND
ONE CAN SEE SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN IN A FORMIDABLE BAND SOME 10-20
NM OFFSHORE. THIS IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY
AFTER 1030 AM.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BAND TO SEE HOW IT HOLDS TOGETHER. HI-RES
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING PARTICULARY IN ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD
CELLS TRAIN OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. SO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
NEAR TERM TRENDS TODAY.
THE THRUST OF THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER CONVECTION/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS THE COAST BY 12Z. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE PRODUCING LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL BE ASSESSING WHETHER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY
AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL RUNS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AGAIN TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH...WITH NOW BOTH GFS
AND EC TAKING THE LOW INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY.
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATER
TOTALS ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO ORANGE COUNTY. GREATER RAINFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT FROM BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY
FROM THE UPPER LOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND ONE INCH
(AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES AND RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH SNOWFALL
MOSTLY ABOVE 7500 FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
EARLY TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOR LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD END BY EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN TERMS OF BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND MORE INLAND
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING
COOLING AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
091557Z...PATCHY BKN-OVC CLOUDS IN THE 2000-10000 FT MSL LAYER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
ELSEWHERE...ISOL SHRA AND MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 1800 UTC. 1800-10/0000 UTC...INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE 2000-
10000 FT MSL LAYER WITH INCREASING SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
SLOPES MAY BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/SHRA. 10/0000-1500 UTC...MERGING
CLOUD LAYERS 1000-20000 FT MSL WITH WIDESPREAD-SCT SHRA/+SHRA AND
ISOL TSRA PRODUCING AREAS OF VIS 2-5 SM. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCAL VIS/CIGS AOB 1 SM/800 FT AGL
RESPECTIVELY POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH +SHRA/TSRA WITH CB TOPS TO 35000 FT
MSL. SLOPES OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/SHRA. HEAVIEST SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY DURING THE 10/0600-1200 UTC TIME-
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS.
&&
.MARINE...
857 AM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS COULD
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WITH MORE
DETAILS HAS BEEN POSTED.
&&
.BEACHES...
857 AM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AT THE BEACHES...PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD-TO-WATER OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
&&
.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR LATE THIS EVENING
AND LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS BANDS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GREGORIA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
920 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.Synopsis...
A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state
through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Mountain
showers will likely continue early next week with another round of
showers over the entire north state around mid week. Snow levels
remain high for minimal mountain travel impacts.
&&
.Discussion...
Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue
to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior.
Currently there is a band that is over the Sierra Nevada and
extending into the Sacramento region. This area will continue to
spread westward this morning so little change is expected from
around Sacramento southward through the morning. To the north
isolated showers and sprinkles are occurring. Mountain areas
should see an increase in activity this afternoon. The HRRR model
indicates a band developing around Placer/Sierra counties this
afternoon and moving into the valley.
The low will slowly move inland over the next 36 hours with little
change in the weather expected over Northern California. Another
low pressure area will drop southward on Sunday off the coast to
help keep unsettled weather over the area into Monday.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves through the far northern end of the
State and may bring some showers to the north end of the valley
and mountains.
Snow levels will continue to be high with only the higher peaks
getting some snow.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
The current upper lows are associated with a Rex Block pattern
while the low coming in mid next week is a colder trough tied to
the main jet stream and a colder maritime polar airmass.
This trough will be dropping into and through NorCal Wednesday
and Thursday. With the pattern change, discrepancies do exist
between the GFS and ECMWF on exact timing and placement. The GFS
shows a trough that deepens into a low over NorCal Wednesday while
the ECMWF is quicker and more shallow. Most notably, the shallower
ECMWF track could limit the amount of precipitation in the
southern part of our forecast area and delay it until Wednesday
night or early Thursday. We maintained our forecast that represents
a mix of the two solutions due to the model uncertainty.
Ridging develops over NorCal Friday and Saturday with the potential
for lingering Sierra showers Friday. Another trough looks to bring
precipitation back into NW California by late next weekend.
JClapp
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers will continue through the TAF period, heaviest across
southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys. This will lead to
MVFR conditions across TAF sites with brief periods of IFR cigs in
heavier showers. Winds generally 10 kts or less.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN
0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING
AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7
FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING
COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS DTHROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH
THE COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE
NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING
TO BETWEEN 0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
BETWEEN 6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAINING AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC-H7 FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE COLDER AIR IS A TAD
FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS DTHROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
125 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. STILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MODELS STILL GIVING BETTER CHANCE
SUNDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY
AND HAVE LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY CHANCE ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. DECREASED CHANCED MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN KEEPING
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. INCREASED
CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AHEAD OF
PACIFIC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GK
.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT...THEN THE MID-
CONTINENT TROUGH RETROGRADES OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THU NIGHT/FRI.
THE ZONAL FLOW LIKELY MEANS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
WITH RUN TO RUN CHANGES AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COMPARING ONE
PRODUCT SUITE TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT...WHEN THE GFS
CLEARS A LITTLE AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED LOW ON TOP OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING.
AT THAT POINT...THEY FALL INTO SHARP DISAGREEMENT AT TIMES. UNTIL
THU NIGHT...CONSISTENTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS PREDICTED
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WHICH FITS IN WITH THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. BOTH THE GFSX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAVE HIGH POPS FOR
BOTH WED AND THU EVEN FOR PLACES LIKE POCATELLO. BEYOND THU PAINTED
WITH A BROAD BRUSH AND INCREASED POPS FOR NEXT SAT/SAT NIGHT. MESSICK
&&
.AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SOME RAINSHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ONLY KIDA AND KSUN ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE PUT IN SOME PREDOMINANT -SHRA. BEST INSTABILITY
IS NEAR KSUN AFTER 10/00Z BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ALL FOUR TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BOUNDARY PASSAGE
BETWEEN 09/23Z AND 10/00Z MAY KICK UP THE WIND. THIS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FORECASTED BY THE HRRR IN THE PREVIOUS HOURS...SO KIDA
MAY SEE SOME BRIEF WINDS STRONGER THAN WHAT IS IN CURRENT TAF FROM
THE WEST DURING THAT TIME. SAME COULD BE TRUE FOR KBYI WITH A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY.
MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
...updated short and long terms...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Immediate short term concern is if it will precipitate this evening.
Satellite and observations show some mid level clouds working in from
the southwest. This is in association with a weak wave that will pass
over later tonight. The HRRR is fairly aggressive, while the ARW is
fairly conservative. Observations show there isn`t much moisture with
this system, so would rather side with the drier solution. I do have
slight pops across west-central Kansas tonight. Even if it did rain,
we are talking about very light accumulations (only a few hundredths).
Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will drift over the region this
afternoon and tonight. With the clouds and downslope winds, overnight
lows will be on the mild side - upper 40s to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
A cold front will work through the region tomorrow. Ahead of this front,
downslope flow is expected, and very warm temperatures are likely across
the OK border - low to mid 80s. To the north, low to mid 70s are expected.
There could be elevated fire weather conditions across far southwest
Kansas, however, winds look marginal at this time. Otherwise, have pops
ramping through Sunday night and into Monday morning as upslope/isentropic
lift develops. The highest pops will be along the OK border, where the
lift is stronger along. Severe weather is becoming more unlikely as
the warm sector along with resultant cape is displaced to the southeast
and south. There is some mucape forecast, however, upscale growth could
limit hail potential. To add, the ECMWF is conservative on mucape while
the NAM is higher. I think quarter size hail would be pushing the upper
end of the hail size envelope. Beyond Monday, a dry forecast is expected.
Warm air advection and lee troughing will resume. Attention the turns
to the end of the week. This is our next chance for precipitation. A
large trough is forecast with moderate dewpoints ahead of said system.
The ECMWF has this feature spinning with considerable moisture advection
associated with it. QPF from the model is impressive and over 5" across
far western Kansas. Something to watch. The basic ingredients for severe
is there, however, significant cloud cover is also forecast from the
ECMWF. This may limit instability overall... small mesoscale details
are still unknown. Again, something to watch. It`s Spring and doesn`t
take much to generate a tstorm across Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some lowering of cigs possible
tonight as upper level disturbance moves through. Otherwise, SE/S winds
20-30 kt today, decreasing 15-20 kt tonight. Winds will take more of
a westerly direction by tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 80 45 56 / 10 20 50 50
GCK 49 78 43 57 / 20 20 50 50
EHA 49 82 43 52 / 10 30 50 50
LBL 50 85 45 54 / 10 30 50 50
HYS 51 73 42 59 / 10 10 30 30
P28 55 84 49 57 / 10 30 60 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
231 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE
VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO
SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY
REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER
FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION
IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF
OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX.
SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN
TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO
OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A
PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY
POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/
SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO
TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT
SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE
COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN
WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF
AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND
U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY
INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS CONFIDED TO DAYTIME PERIODS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE SUNDAY
WHEN GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14-16Z. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED (9-12KFT BASES)
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAVORED...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DURING
THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE
VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO
SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY
REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER
FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION
IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF
OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX.
SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN
TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO
OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL
RESIDE IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE OR LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE FA. CAPE VALUES UP TO
600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TUESDAY TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS CONFIDED TO DAYTIME PERIODS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE SUNDAY
WHEN GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14-16Z. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED (9-12KFT BASES)
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAVORED...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DURING
THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from
Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was
advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure
trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure
gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides
off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20
mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the
higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will
warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today.
Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns
for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire
weather section.
Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases
to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This
should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east
central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become
zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move
across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead
wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while
the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight.
Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east
central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later
tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear
will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers.
Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of
an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early
Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in
cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area.
Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most
precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern
areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the
70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than
1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few
pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on
south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak
isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern
Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but
northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri
Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent
mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in
the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the
stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface
still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime
radiational cooling in check.
The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing
western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally.
A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains
around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring
until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable
differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough
agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs
return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At
this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Winds will gradually veer through out the day today, and remain
gusty even into the overnight hours. During non gusty periods
there may be some low level wind shear in the early morning. An
MVFR stratus deck is forecasted to move in from the south towards
sunrise tomorrow. Also, there could be a brief period of showers
and thunderstorms for a few hours around sunrise. Due to the low
coverage decided not to mention precipitation as of now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens
across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially
from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high.
Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the
slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution
which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the
northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the
afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture
recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this
afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where
moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH
increases through the afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ010>012-
023-024-026-039-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
227 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTN AND PULL DOWN ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER
AIR REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH
WINDS. THE FRONT ENTERS NRN NEB LATE TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN NEB
SUNDAY MORNING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS...HRRR AND RAP HOLD K
INDICES BELOW 30C SUGGESTING NO THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE
BULLDOG WITH K INDICES OVER 30C. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S
IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN NEB HOLDING LOWS IN THE
30S. RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES. SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH PRODUCING LOWS
IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH ONLY THE 50S.
VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE MONDAY EVENING WITH A H850MB MIXING RATIO
AROUND 2 G/KG. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ABOVE
FREEZING.
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
EVENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS IS INDICATED THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS. THIS IS A SOLID
INDICATOR OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES. A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FCST IS WHEN AND WHERE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA. BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ESPECIALLY IN THE ECM
GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H850MB AND
500MB IN THAT MODEL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY.
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS VERY WEAK IN THE MODELS BUT AN UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND FLOOD THE FCST AREA WITH MOISTURE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OR SHEARS OUT IS
UNKNOWN TODAY. THIS MORNINGS ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GEF
MODEL SOLNS. LAST NIGHT THE ECM WAS FASTER.
THE FORECAST USES 30 TO 50 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND K
INDICES IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 30C OR HIGHER SUPPORTING
TSTMS IN THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY PRODUCING
MODERATE WIND AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN NEB TONIGHT...MAINLY
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
BUMPED UP WIND GRIDS A BIT MORE AS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ABOVE EXPECTED...BUT THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AND SHOULD NOT HAVE TO UPGRADE. TEMPS
SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR WESTERN TIER...AND WITH
THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT VALUES FIRE WEATHER WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THINK THAT
RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT SO WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN
SOCIAL MEDIA AND HWO AND LEAVE OUT ANY RED FLAGS FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
COLD TEMPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
ARE NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF SOME LOW
POPS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE FOR HIGHS...WITH THE RAP AND GFS TRYING TO BUMP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO THE 50 MARK WHILE OTHER MODELS BARELY GET
OUT OF THE 20S. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MID DAY UPDATE. WINDS
ARE RAMPING UP AND STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR THE ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT KDVL WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS YET. THIS GRADIENT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE SOME CIRRUS
OVER THE AREA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS A RESULT OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...SEEING THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY TIGHTENING UP OVER WESTERN ND WITH
SOUTH-SE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ONLY SEEING
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z SUN...BRINGING THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...ONLY NEGATIVE WOULD BE THAT WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...OR OVER 40 KNOTS
AT 925MB OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY.
OTHER MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO NORTH
VALLEY COMPONENT IS THERE.
COULD BE MARGINAL AT TIMES BUT DEFINITELY THINK IT IS WORTH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST. IN
THESE SITUATIONS THE WORST WINDS ARE TYPICALLY FROM KCKN UP TOWARD
KHCO AND PEMBINA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. AS THE SFC LOW WORKS INTO CENTRAL ND
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IT WILL BRING A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH IT AS WELL AS WESTERLY WINDS. NEITHER OF THESE LOOK
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SO AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
LARGE SW TO NE HIGH TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FA. MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT
THEY DO SHOW A SLIGHT POTENTIAL UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TOWARD
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAD
SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THIS AREA SO WILL KEEP THOSE GOING. AS
THE SFC LOW OR SFC LOWS MOVE THRU THE FA TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN UP AROUND THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW AROUND THE NORTHEAST FA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE FA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT ALSO MEANS SOME CHILLY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
BY TUE MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA REMAINS THERE BUT ALSO WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR WED. TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE FOR THU AND DECREASED
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...TO THE TUNE OF AROUND 2500 FT.
MET GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AS LOW AS 1000-2000 FT...BUT NAM BUFR AND
MAV GUIDANCE ARE A MOS CATEGORY OR TWO HIGHER. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS STILL ON HOW LOW OF CIGS WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 30-35
PERCENT AND WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE HIGHER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SURFACE E LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF REGINA
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO AROUND GLASGOW AND BILLINGS IN
EASTERN MONTANA. ALONG THE TROUGH IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WINDS
ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND HUMIDITIES ARE
DROPPING WITH BEACH AND MEDORA FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AT 11
AM MDT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. FARTHER
NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO RISE AND AT THIS TIME HUMIDITIES
REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA SHORTLY AND WE WILL SEE
IF LOW TO MID 30 DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM LOWER AS WE MIX OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. IF NOT WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE
NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. CERTAINLY WILL KEEP IT GOING CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.
STRONGEST WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIND ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR OVER
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING IT A
WHILE BUT WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE WIND
ADVISORY AND WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS POSTED AFTER 1 PM.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO A MIX OF HRRR/PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
MORNING. THE NAM/EC LOOK TO VERIFY THIS QUITE WELL BUT THE GFS
LOOKS TOO DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER-PERFORMING COMPARED TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THICK CIRRUS
NORTH IS PROBABLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK THERE A BIT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY...TRENDING TEMPS JUST A LITTLE LOWER. BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CURRENT WIND HAZARDS ALSO
LOOK GOOD. WILL FRESHEN THESE UP ALSO BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL
HAZARD. ADJUSTED SKY COVER HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE
IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC...
AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
A COLD FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT KISN TO
BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT KDIK BETWEEN
18Z-20Z...AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 20Z-22Z...AND AT KJMS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF RAIN IS STAYING FURTHER
SOUTH SO FAR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OK THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR... A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY JUST BE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE... ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NW OK THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FURTHER NE THIS MORNING FOR
THE LINE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE FA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH
DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 20 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 56 85 56 / 30 10 10 40
GAGE OK 73 51 88 46 / 20 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 73 58 78 64 / 40 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS ON THE NJ COAST AS OF MID DAY...AND IT WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
THE OVERALL SHIELD OF PRECIP SHRINKING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY FROM NORTHERN CENTRE DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTY...IS MADE TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
SE EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. BY THE TIME IT MAKES
IT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNLESS WE HAVE
HEAVY PRECIP RATES...THERE WILL AT LEAST BE RAIN MIXED IN THE
SNOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVER WITH HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLES
HAVING HELPED TEMPERATURES RECOVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
IT IS STILL SNOWING WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY UP FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING A
GUSTY NNW WIND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE STATE. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROVIDE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY MORNING SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS AS
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT GEFS ENSEMBLES...AND MID
RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z GEFS HAS ONE TO TWO PWAT
ANOMALIES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION 06Z TO 18Z MONDAY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR
THAT BOUNDARY ARE HOW MUCH QPF AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE 12Z TO 18Z IN
THE LOWER SUSQ...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST. HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED QPFS BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM THE NW MTNS TO THE
LOWER SUSQ AND MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL ONLY BE
FREEZING OR LOWER ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER. SO GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY
RAIN...THOUGH SOME FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. LATEST GUIDANCE ON THIS FRONT REMAIN
CONSISTENT...THOUGH EC HAS A SHALLOWER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. QPF
REMAINS HIGHER PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPFS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE
ENOUGH THROUGH THE NW MTNS FOR SNOWFALL...THOUGH GIVEN SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE MIXED...AND WET. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA
IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF ATLANTIC CITY AND WILL CONTINUE OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST TERMINALS ARE STILL SUB VFR...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART...AND IFR/LIFE OCCURRING
IN THE SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW THAT CONTINUE TO ROTATE DOWN
AROUND THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ON A GUST NNW WIND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
OR BECOME VFR BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS FROM JST-BFD WILL SEE THE USUAL LOWER CONDITION LINGER
THE LONGEST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
HANG TOUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
TUE...MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS ON THE NJ COAST AS OF MID DAY...AND IT WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
THE OVERALL SHIELD OF PRECIP SHRINKING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY FROM NORTHERN CENTRE DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTY...IS MADE TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
SE EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. BY THE TIME IT MAKES
IT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNLESS WE HAVE
HEAVY PRECIP RATES...THERE WILL AT LEAST BE RAIN MIXED IN THE
SNOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVER WITH HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLES
HAVING HELPED TEMPERATURES RECOVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
IT IS STILL SNOWING WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY UP FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING A
GUSTY NNW WIND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE STATE. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROVIDE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY MORNING SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS AS
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF ATLANTIC CITY AND WILL CONTINUE OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST TERMINALS ARE STILL SUB VFR...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART...AND IFR/LIFE OCCURRINGIN
THE SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW THAT CONTINUE TO ROTATE DOWN AROUND
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ON A GUST NNW WIND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
OR BECOME VFR BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS FROM JST-BFD WILL SEE THE USUAL LOWER CONDITION LINGER
THE LONGEST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
HANG TOUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
TUE...MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE
AT KAUS THROUGH 19Z...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...STUBBORN IFR CIGS AT KDRT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO MVFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY INTO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND SUSPECT MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z-07Z ACROSS MOST SITES. CIGS SHOULD
ALSO MANAGE TO DIP INTO IFR AT KSAT AND KDRT AFTER 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
A 700MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE
MOMENT WHICH IS SERVING TO PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL FOCUSED LIFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB ARE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING. ECHO TOPS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KFT AND ARE
VERY TILTED...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR UPDRAFTS TO REACH THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH THE 700 MB
SHORTWAVE AS IT EXITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...WV IMAGERY IS
INDICATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WHILE AT THE LOW
LEVELS...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POP
CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND KEEPING SLIGHT AND LOW END CHC POPS GOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE AUSTIN AREA AND NORTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS MOVES
THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS.
UPWARD FORCING GENERATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL CAPE AND A CAPPING
INVERSION INDICATES ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOLAR HEATING ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW
POSSIBLY TAKING THEM INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
THE CALIFORNIA COAST OPENS UP THIS WEEKEND AND MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
UPWARD FORCING REDEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL UPWARD FORCING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.
MODERATE CAPE AND A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION INDICATE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS
AND SPC HAS AREAS EAST OF A LEXINGTON TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE IN A
MARGINAL RISK. THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY. PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS BREAKS OFF BY MONDAY AND APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS
ON TUESDAY AND MOVES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPWARD FORCING AGAIN DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STRONG UPWARD FORCING GENERATES SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY DUE TO THE DRYLINE.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE
COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS FORECAST...NEXT WEEKEND...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 64 80 68 87 / 40 10 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 61 79 68 86 / 40 10 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 63 81 68 87 / 40 10 10 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 61 79 66 87 / 40 10 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 63 85 65 91 / 20 10 10 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 63 79 68 86 / 40 10 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 81 66 89 / 20 10 10 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 62 79 67 86 / 40 10 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 63 80 70 83 / 40 10 10 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 63 80 67 88 / 40 10 10 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 64 81 68 88 / 40 10 10 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1247 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Issued by National Weather Service Midland TX
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Morning showers and thunderstorms moving east are nearly out of
the area and will likely not affect any terminals the rest of
today. A few sites will hold MVFR ceilings into the early
afternoon before VFR ceilings prevail heading into tonight.
Forecast is dry through this TAF period, but MVFR ceilings make a
return after 06Z tonight for most TAF sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West
Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the
most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any
reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings
will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest
that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after
midnight and continue through sunrise.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 59 85 61 83 / 10 10 30 5
San Angelo 60 85 60 82 / 10 20 30 0
Junction 60 81 64 87 / 10 10 20 5
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/99