Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/09/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE`LL SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AS WELL. && .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH WITH A SOLID JOB AT MOISTENING FROM MID LEVELS DOWN. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN WITH 1/2 INCH...BUT 1 INCH VALUES ARE PUSHING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. CIRA LPW TOTALS SUGGEST WE ARE UP TO ABOUT .70 NOW WITH INCREASING CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WE SHOULD HIT .75 OR .8 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER VALUES OVERNIGHT (OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR APRIL). THE HIGHEST EVER APRIL PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENT FROM A SOUNDING IS 1.07...NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS EXPECTED INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW WITH LOTS OF VIRGA MOISTENING UP THE SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT IDEA THOUGH...ALONG WITH U OF A WRF TRENDS. INCREASING SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A BIT CONVECTIVE TOMORROW...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS AROUND .1 TO .3 OF AN INCH IN VALLEYS AND .6 TO 1 INCH IN MOUNTAINS. LOTS OF OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE...SO LOCALLY HEAVIER POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SLOPES. AFTER A BREAK SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS LOOKING SOLID FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COOLER SYSTEM...THIS ONE MIGHT SEE AN FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET. AFTER THAT...IT DEPENDS ON HOW THE RIDGE SETS UP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT COULD ALLOW ANOTHER SYSTEM TO UNDERCUT LATE NEXT WEEK...OR IT COULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW THAT EMPHASIZES PLENTY OF WIND. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z. BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE THRU 08/00Z...THEN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THEREAFTER THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MOST COVERAGE FROM KTUS NORTH AND EASTWARD. SOME ISOLD -TSRA PSBL AS WELL ON FRIDAY. GUSTY SLY/SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFT 08/01Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 08/18Z...BECOMING SWLY 8-16 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WITH BREEZES. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MEYER/LADER VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
604 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE GREATER BAY AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH RENEWED RAIN CHANCES. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 PM PDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. QPF TOTALS STILL LOOK LIGHT AND GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE MUCH TOTAL RAINFALL. SO FAR THE CLOSEST LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WITH SOME ACTIVITY STARTING TO FIRE IN THE SIERRA AS WELL...MEANWHILE DOWN IN THE DESERTS OF CA AND AZ QUITE A LIGHTNING SHOW IS UNDERWAY AS A RESULT OF THE SAME UPPER LOW. NEXT LOW IS OFFSHORE AND WILL APPROACH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THIS OCCURS MODELS WANT TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND KEEP ISOLATED T-STORM THREAT GOING FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (SANTA CLARA TO MONTEREY). NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT SATURDAY BUT JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HAMPER OUTDOOR PLANS AND JUSTIFY KEEPING AN UMBRELLA HANDY. SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY EXPECT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SUNSHINE BREAKS THAT WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS. HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT`LL STAY OFFSHORE BEFORE MAKING A BEELINE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. END RESULT SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDS. THE GFS IS FASTER AND THE EURO A LITTLE SLOWER. ECMWF DID BACK OFF SLIGHTLY WITH INTENSITY ON LATEST 12Z RUN AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MID-RANGE FORECAST WITH INTEREST FOR ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL. && .AVIATION...AS OF 6:04 PM PDT FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR DURING THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED APPROX 700 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS LOW WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. VICINITY OF KSFO...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN LIGHT SE WIND SATURDAY. VFR THIS EVENING TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS. && .MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN AVIATION: CANEPA MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
959 AM PDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A MORE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY WITH MORE LIKELY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY AND THE NEXT WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY COASTAL/VALLEY SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY...BASED ON OBS/RADAR. RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH TRACE TO 0.04 INCHES ACCUMULATION SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE SERVICE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FURTHER...MORE RAINFALL WILL REACH THE SURFACE. WRF AND HRRR FOCUS THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. /GREGORIA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST... WITHOUT MUCH SUN TEMPS WILL BE WAY DOWN FROM WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES LOWER IN SOME AREAS. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION AND TEMPORARILY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A DEEPER...MORE INTENSE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THIS ONE HAS MORE COLD AIR AND ORGANIZATION. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WILL WAIT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY PORTION BELOW FOR MORE ON AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. THAT STORM WILL MOVE OUT ON SUNDAY. BUT BEFORE WE CAN EVEN DRY OUT...HERE COMES THE NEXT STORM WHICH LOOKS WEAKER ON MONDAY. NOT AS MUCH RAIN...SNOW OR WIND. JUST EXPECT SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT WEDNESDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY. MAYBE ONLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THEN. THE GFS AND EURO MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A REAL POWERFUL DIGGING TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING OFF WHAT WOULD BE AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM. STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. && .AVIATION... 071525Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 1000 FT MSL NEAR THE COAST AND MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS AOA 5000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI MORNING. INCREASING -SHRA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING ISOLATED THIS EVENING. VIS LOCALLY REDUCED TO 5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT MSL DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 8000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI MORNING. SCT -SHRA WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SHRA BECOMING ISOLATED TONIGHT. COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES IN CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. && .MARINE... 840 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .BEACHES... 840 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION SURF WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY FROM 280 DEGREES AND 4 TO 6 FEET. && HYDROLOGY... NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THAT IS WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MORE FOCUSED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ALONG WITH THAT BAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR IN THOSE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING MAY OCCUR. AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE COASTAL BASIN AND ONE TO TWO PLUS INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...GROGORIA/MM AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AN UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE... ONSHORE FLOW IS CEMENTING ITS PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES SPINS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW IS TRENDING STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REVERSAL TAKES PLACE. KLAX-KDAG AND KSMX-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MB ONSHORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ITS CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP. ONE AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE MARINE LAYER, SHALLOWLY IN PLACE THIS EVENING COULD LIFT AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTION DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR 22N AND 121W COULD SCRAPE THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAP 1000-500 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE NEGATIVE WITH THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND RAP CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 420 J/KG. WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PUSH THE VORT MAX INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS DID TREND TO BRING THE FEATURE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL IN LINE AND AGREE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE THE ONE OFFSHORE. AS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE MOVE ASHORE ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM A FEATURE CURRENTLY NEAR 32N AND 143W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE PWATS ARE A HEALTHY 1.25 INCHES...ANY LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A HEAR-BUT-NOT- THERE AND OFF-AND-ON-AGAIN SHOWERY REGIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY. WITH ALL THAT SAID HOWEVER...SYSTEMS OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKE THIS HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF SURPRISES IN THE PAST...SO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE COAST/VALLEYS (0.01-0.25 INCHES) AND THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (0.25-0.75 INCHES). EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS THE BEST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 7,500 FEET FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LONG TERM...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE THAN THE FIRST...WITH PRELIMINARY TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER THE COAST/VALLEYS...AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 6,000 FOOT RANGE WHICH MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RESORTS...BUT MAJOR MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED. COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON TAP AGAIN. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE NEXT 7...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS MONDAY`S LOW ENOUGH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES ABOUND TO NO SURPRISE...WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY HAS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION... 07/0600Z AT 0530Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE NEAR 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS AS MANY LAYERS OF CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 18Z-00Z. KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN FROM 18Z-00Z. KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN FROM 18Z-00Z. && .MARINE... 06/800 PM MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL AVIATION...ASR MARINE...SMITH SYNOPSIS...SIRARD WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AN UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE... ONSHORE FLOW IS CEMENTING ITS PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES SPINS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW IS TRENDING STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REVERSAL TAKES PLACE. KLAX-KDAG AND KSMX-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MB ONSHORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ITS CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP. ONE AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE MARINE LAYER, SHALLOWLY IN PLACE THIS EVENING COULD LIFT AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTION DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR 22N AND 121W COULD SCRAPE THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAP 1000-500 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE NEGATIVE WITH THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND RAP CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 420 J/KG. WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PUSH THE VORT MAX INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS DID TREND TO BRING THE FEATURE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL INLINE AND AGREE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE THE ONE OFFSHORE. AS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE MOVE ASHORE ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM A FEATURE CURRENTLY NEAR 32N AND 143W. A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE PWATS ARE A HEALTHY 1.25 INCHES...ANY LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A HEAR-BUT-NOT- THERE AND OFF-AND-ON-AGAIN SHOWERY REGIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY. WITH ALL THAT SAID HOWEVER...SYSTEMS OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKE THIS HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF SURPRISES IN THE PAST...SO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE COAST/VALLEYS (0.01-0.25 INCHES) AND THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (0.25-0.75 INCHES). EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS THE BEST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 7,500 FEET FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LONG TERM...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE THAN THE FIRST...WITH PRELIMINARY TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER THE COAST/VALLEYS...AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 6,000 FOOT RANGE WHICH MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RESORTS...BUT MAJOR MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED. COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON TAP AGAIN. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE NEXT 7...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS MONDAYS LOW ENOUGH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES ABOUND TO NO SURPRISE...WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY HAS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION...06/0000Z. AT 00Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT THROUGH 03Z AND IMPROVE ONE CATEGORY THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH 10Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WHILE SPREADING TO TERMINAL NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND INTO VALLEY TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS OPTIMISTIC FOR CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULDLINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KLAX...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE, IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 10Z, OR 15Z AT THE LATEST. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. KBUR...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. OTHERWISE, IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. && .MARINE...06/800 PM. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL AVIATION...HALL MARINE...SMITH SYNOPSIS...SIRARD WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
528 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE FROPA. TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN- VARIETY. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT * TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND * A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY. * ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK OVERVIEW... 12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DETAILS... SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND...SOME OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE IS STARTING TO SIGNAL THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS FURTHER S. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A BIT FURTHER S THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE CANADIAN GGEM FURTHEST S. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS PRECIP AS FAR N AS THE MASS PIKE...AN OVERALL AVERAGE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT/S RI INTO S COASTAL MA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO PUSHING THIS LOW OFFSHORE FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF A BIT QUICKER. BEST QPF WILL OCCUR DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL START TO TAPER OFF AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S VINEYARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. OVERALL QPF EXPECTED TO BE FROM 0.1 INCHES OR LESS FROM NEAR THE MASS PIKE UP TO PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN...RANGING TO ABOUT 0.25 INCHES FROM AROUND KIJD-KPVD-KEWB...THEN UP CLOSE TO 0.5 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND THE ISLANDS. DID USE WET BULB TEMPS TO HELP DETERMINE TRANSITION OVER TO -SN BUT JUST NOT QUITE ENOUGH QPF LEFT. WHILE MANY SPOTS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT/N RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...IF THAT HAPPENS. WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET EARLY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO N-NW WINDS. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT E COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT. PLEASE SEE THE TIDAL AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW. SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE BY SUN MORNING...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W. NW WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BACK TO W-SW AND DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 40S..EXCEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH SE. PRECIP MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY DURING SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AS THE PRECIP COMMENCES...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE SHORE. THE SNOW WILL START BY AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E. DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS...THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE...THEN LESS THAN A INCH ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE THOUGH...WILL SEE THE SNOW CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO RAIN FROM S-N BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL NOT LAST LONG EITHER AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS S-SW WINDS PICK UP. AS THE FRONT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW...IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME TIMING ISSUES AT PLAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY...SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THERE. AT THIS POINT...MAY SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS DURING TUE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT SO LOWER CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE S COAST. TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE. FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER 5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING. MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4 PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE. THIS WEEKEND... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST ANY HEADLINES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007- 012>021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002- 004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255- 256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...WTB/EVT MARINE...WTB/EVT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
449 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE FROPA. TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN- VARIETY. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT * TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND * A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY. * ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK OVERVIEW... 12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAILIES... SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA. MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE S COAST. TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE. FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER 5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING. MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4 PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE. THIS WEEKEND... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST ANY HEADLINES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007- 012>021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002- 004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255- 256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...WTB/EVT MARINE...WTB/EVT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGHB NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE FROPA. TONIGHT... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARION AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-VARIETY. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASUREABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE * WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND * MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK OVERVIEW... BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAILIES... SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE. FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER 5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW FEET AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM -RA OR - SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4 PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE. THIS WEEKEND... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST ANY HEADLINES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007- 012>021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002- 004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255- 256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGHB NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE FROPA. TONIGHT... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARION AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-VARIETY. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASUREABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE * WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND * MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK OVERVIEW... BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAILIES... SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE. FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER 5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW FEET AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM -RA OR - SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY HIGH END MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY OPEN COASTLINE AND LIKELY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SEEM TO BE TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE. THIS WEEKEND... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT STRONGER N OR NNE GRADIENT WITH TIME...AND ISSUANCE OF COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR THE MA EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS THREAT LATER. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007- 012>021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255- 256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. EXPECT UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS AS COLD POOL OF AIR REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE SURFACE INVERSION...GENERALLY AROUND 925-950 MB. ALB SOUNDING HAD 40 KNOTS...OKX SOUNDING HAD 45 KNOTS...CHATHAM SOUNDING HAD 55 KNOTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 55-60F WERE NEEDED TO ELIMINATE THE INVERSION. THIS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AS SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM IS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURENCE CONTINUES TO BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS SHOWED THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 50 KNOTS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE CORE GROWS TO 60 KNOTS AS IT SHIFTS OVER CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND 75 KNOTS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CT/CENTRAL MASS WILL EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NY/PA MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY TONIGHT AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEASONALLY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE SPEED OF MOTION OF THE SHOWERS DOESN/T POINT TO A GENERAL FLOOD THREAT...BUT POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR WITH THE USUAL LOCATIONS. CHANGES... WE HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST WINDS A LITTLE...AND BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER MOST OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CT/WESTERN MASS ESPECIALLY IN ANY SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING LOWER VALUES THAN AREAS FARTHER EAST DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM WERE MOSTLY 3-5F WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. WE BUMPED FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. BUT CONSENSUS WOULD BRING A COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE CT VALLEY AROUND 8PM/00Z AND THE HILLS/EAST BY MIDNIGHT/04Z. A SECOND COLD FRONT LAGS THE FIRST BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH...AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK...SOME OF WHICH MAY EDGE INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF RI AND CENTRAL MA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS * POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE * WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND * MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK OVERVIEW... BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAILIES... FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BELIEVE FRIDAY TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERY WEATHER THANKS TO COLD CORE LOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY. CONTINUED A CHC OF POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING LOW...RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20-30 MPH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN RAIN AND FOG. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL BE 50-60 KNOTS...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WINDS ABOVE THE CT VALLEY MAY BE A LITTLE LESS...MORE LIKE 40-50 KNOTS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SHOULD BRING CIGS AND VSBYS UP TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN - SHRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING 35-40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-12 FEET ON THE SOUTH-EXPOSED WATERS. LOCALLY POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COULD ALSO BE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RESULTING IN GUSTY WSW WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS. LOW PROB FOR A FEW GALES. SCA WILL BE NEEDED. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW FEET AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM -RA OR - SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY HIGH END MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY OPEN COASTLINE AND LIKELY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SEEM TO BE TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE. THIS WEEKEND... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT STRONGER N OR NNE GRADIENT WITH TIME...AND ISSUANCE OF COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR THE MA EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS THREAT LATER. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007- 012>021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255- 256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. LOW PRES NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE N THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW TRANSLATES INTO BL WINDS IN THE 40-50KT RANGE ACROSS LONG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DAMPENING DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE...MECHANICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THIS SOMEWHAT. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYERED 50+ KT WINDS SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET ANY PRECIPITATION DRAG AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. ADJUSTED CAT POPS TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND HI RES GUIDANCE. HRRR AND 06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION WITH SHOWERS TRACKING NORTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC LIKELY IMPACTING LONG ISLAND AND SE CT THIS MORNING...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ENTERING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COUPLED JET IN THE AREA. MAINTAINED THE ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO T/TD/WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER DUE TO COMPENSATION SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THEREAFTER... A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE RIGHT THRU THE DAY ON FRI WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. GFS H925-H85 LAPSE RATES FRI AFTERNOON CLOSE TO DRY ADIABATIC. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVG DUE TO DEEP APRIL MIXING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY TROUGHING IN THE EAST...DUE TO A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND...AND A SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST. THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN...MAINLY THOUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL AS A CUTOFF LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM ERN CANADA MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON SAT. THE OVERALL H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES BEGINNING MONDAY...WHICH IS AFFECTING THE DETAILS OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI EVE WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY 10-20 DEGREES BELOW OVER THE WEEKEND...ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE SIGNALING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING OVER OR JUST S OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...THE WET BULB EFFECT FROM FALLING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 30S AREA WIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN LIGHT ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING DEPARTING LOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. TEMPS COULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON MON FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...BUT THEY ARE TOUGH TO GET THROUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE PARENT LOW PRES TRACKING W OF THE APPALACHIANS...UNLESS YOU HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THERE CURRENTLY IS NO INDICATION OF A DAMMING HIGH TO THE N BUT IF THIS DOES END UP DEVELOPING IT WILL BE REALLY TOUGH FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT..WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR TO GET STARTED...THEN MVFR DEVELOPS BY AROUND MIDDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LATE MORNING KGON. IFR IS PROBABLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW GUSTY IT WILL BE FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS BUT KSWF INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT S-SE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH 20-25KT GUSTS...THEN SE WINDS AROUND 15-25G25-35KT BY AROUND MIDDAY. ISOLATED PEAK GUSTS COULD BE 5-10 KT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS IN THE TAFS. WINDS DECREASE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SSW THEN SW...WITH GUSTS ABATING DURING THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS RETURN 8-10Z AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WSW-W WITH GUSTS 15-25KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCST CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW. E WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW MAINLY IN THE EVENING...THEN VFR. NE-NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. SW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE... SLY FLOW INCREASES THU THE DAY AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS. THE GALES COME DOWN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. SCA WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN HOWEVER RIGHT THRU FRI. ON THE PROTECTED WATERS...WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON FRI...PARTICULARLY ON THE ERN SOUND. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ON ALL WATERS FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. THEY COULD BRIEFLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON SAT BUT WILL RAMP BACK UP BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUN EVE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ON MON COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MON NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. SOME MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE PEAK WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL LINE UP WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT ALONG THE S SHORE BAYS IF ENOUGH WATER REMAINS TRAPPED IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-078>081-176>179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/24 NEAR TERM...24/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JMC/24 HYDROLOGY...JMC/24 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
737 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .AVIATION... VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 05Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016/ SYNOPSIS... 19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROD ABOVE A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS. WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO. SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW INTRUSION OF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)... FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COOL MID-APRIL MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. METRO AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. THIS IS SOME 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO ENJOY THE COOLER WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN. WE WILL WARM QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS AND HARBORS...AND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES OF WIND EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN A COOLER BUT DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL JUST A BIT SHY OF 15 MPH... ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS. FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 58 73 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 60 77 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 55 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 59 73 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 52 74 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 61 74 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
348 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... 20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. THE MODIFIED REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION OVER THE PACIFIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW FULLY EVOLVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT FORCED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW RAPIDLY EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. THIS DRYING IS SHOWN WELL IN NWP CROSS SECTION FORECASTS AND SHOULD BE SAMPLED WELL WITH THE EVENING KTBW RAOB. YET ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS ENERGY AND THE SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW...ITS PASSAGE WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SET UP A COOL WEEKEND FOR APRIL AROUND THESE PARTS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING SOUTH OF LEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR ALL ZONES GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR FRIDAY...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MAKES ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE FORECAST OVERALL IS RATHER BENIGN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...GIVING WAY TO A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. SREF/NARRE ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AFTER 09Z OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY LOOKS VERY PLEASANT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. DECENT DIURNAL MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12-13C RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY EVENING EVERYONE! && .MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES ARE NON- EXISTENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING BELOW WITH IT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS IS COMMON FOR APRIL. AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST TO SE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS WE WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT IS JUST CROSSING SOUTH OF KFMY/KRSW SHIFTING THEIR WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND KLAL/KPGD TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF FRIDAY AS WELL. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35% RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SPOTS RECEIVE BORDERLINE INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 78 58 73 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 63 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 83 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 65 75 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 58 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 66 78 62 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
852 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... 842 PM CDT BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. STRONG VORT DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIGHT CIRCULATION EVEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVE OVER KMKX RADAR SITE AT 840 PM. SEVERAL OBS OF LESS THAN HALF MILE VIS WITH THIS INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN A QUICK INCH IN 30 MINUTES REPORTED IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN IL PRIMARILY FROM ABOUT I-39 EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO ABOVE 700 MB...AND 50+ J/KG OF CAPE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTERWARD IN COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER RELATIVELY MILDER LAKE WATERS. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 304 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80 J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA. MTF && .LONG TERM... 400 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE: - UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. - LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON SATURDAY MORNING. - MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD 850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80 OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY 7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION. SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE. RC && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS... SAME OLD PATTERN CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RESULTING IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WDLY SCT -SHSN. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...VSBY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LOWER POSSIBLY...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY NE WINDS. THE PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. WINDS IMMEDIATE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A BIT EAST OF DUE NORTH...THOUGH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE NNW. LIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST FOR A LAKE BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. IZZI && .MARINE... 425 PM CDT A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. RC && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
656 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... 304 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80 J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA. MTF && .LONG TERM... 400 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE: - UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. - LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON SATURDAY MORNING. - MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD 850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80 OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY 7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION. SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE. RC && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS... SAME OLD PATTERN CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RESULTING IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WDLY SCT -SHSN. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...VSBY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LOWER POSSIBLY...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY NE WINDS. THE PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. WINDS IMMEDIATE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A BIT EAST OF DUE NORTH...THOUGH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE NNW. LIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST FOR A LAKE BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. IZZI && .MARINE... 425 PM CDT A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. RC && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
100 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... 1030 AM CDT THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS. A ONCE AGAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW...WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 925MB TEMPERATURES MEASURED ON 12Z RAOBS WERE -2C AT DVN AND -4C AT GRB WHICH IS ABOUT THE 10TH LOWEST PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THIS COLD ADVECTION IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. SUCH SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PARTS OF THE AREA THE PAST HOUR TO TWO AND ONE BRIEFLY BROUGHT ORD DOWN TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY EARLIER. RAP PREDICTED CAPE OF 25-50 J/KG DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS AS ROBUST OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL COULD GET SOME QUICK VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL IF NOT SNOW (HAD A REPORT OF THAT EARLIER FROM GURNEE ILLINOIS). FORECAST HIGHS ARE 40 TO 45 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR OBSERVED REGIONAL 925MB TEMPERATURES NOTED ABOVE. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 329 AM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE HAS BEEN A COOL/MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER WAVE WAS BEGINNING TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS TAKEN ON SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING...AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE BETTER PARCEL LIFT...AND AS ELUDED TO EARLIER CONCERNING A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED TROUGH...THE ABILITY TO LIFT THE PARCEL HAS DIMINISHED AND IS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN OR IN SOME LOCATIONS LGT SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SOLID LIFT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SNOW GROWTH WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA AND ALONG THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST COLD AIR PUSH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT ANY SIZEABLE WARMING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL TRY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTN AND COULD PULL COOLER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS SUCH AS WAUKEGAN TO CHICAGO AND HOLD TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIFT LATER TODAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND EVEN CHANCES. HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE MID-LVLS HOLDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN PUSHES EAST EARLY FRI. SO EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME THINNING TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER. CONTINUED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 329 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A LOBE OF VORTICITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI...AND AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE CONTINUED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL SEE INCREASED PARCEL LIFT AND LIKELY BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRI...THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SUPPORT MAINLY LGT RAIN BY EARLY FRI AFTN. HEADING INTO FRI EVENING THE STRONGER VORT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN WISC WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR. THERMAL TROUGH AT 850MBCONTINUES TO BE PROGGED IN THE -8 TO -14 DEG C RANGE BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO LGT SNOW LATE FRI EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LGT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND A DUSTING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD APPROACH AN INCH. FORTUNATELY THE DURATION OF LGT SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A CANADIAN SFC RIDGE DIVES SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY AND COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THE THERMAL TROUGH OF -8 TO -12 DEG C WILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY COOL SAT. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN BY SAT NGT AND SHIFTS THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE STEADILY ADVECTING NORTH BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASING. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE SUN NGT...SO HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF ISO THUNDER. TEMPS SHUD APPROACH 50 TO THE MID 50S BY SUN AFTN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE MON/TUE PERIODS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT WEAKENING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. LINGERING TROUGHING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS LIKELY. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AMONGST SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT WEAK RIDGING MAY ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AFTER THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTN/EVE...BROAD SFC RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER TUE/WED. THIS WOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS SOME WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE SEASONAL IN THE EXTENDED. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAFS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS TURNING MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN IMPACTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. WITH THE COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY 38 OR HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH GRAUPEL OR RAIN IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAN ANY SNOW. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. AS CAN OFTEN BE THE CASE WITH NEAR DUE NORTH WINDS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...ARE ANTICIPATING THEM TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS IS VERY LOW...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO STILL HAVE 10KT OR HIGHER WINDS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE SHIFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK WEST AND LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT ONE SPREADING IN LIFT AND MOISTURE ALOFT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD AND ARRIVING IN ROCKFORD A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CHICAGO AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TYPE IS MORE FAVORED TO BE SNOW BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND COULD AT LEAST START AS RAIN OR A MIX. ALL IN ALL THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER THAN TWO OR THREE HOURS. MTF && .MARINE... 318 AM CDT LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 35 KT GALES SPREADING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1035 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... 1030 AM CDT THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS. A ONCE AGAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW...WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 925MB TEMPERATURES MEASURED ON 12Z RAOBS WERE -2C AT DVN AND -4C AT GRB WHICH IS ABOUT THE 10TH LOWEST PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THIS COLD ADVECTION IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW-LEVEL RAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. SUCH SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PARTS OF THE AREA THE PAST HOUR TO TWO AND ONE BRIEFLY BROUGHT ORD DOWN TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY EARLIER. RAP PREDICTED CAPE OF 25-50 J/KG DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS AS ROBUST OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL COULD GET SOME QUICK VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL IF NOT SNOW (HAD A REPORT OF THAT EARLIER FROM GURNEE ILLINOIS). FORECAST HIGHS ARE 40 TO 45 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR OBSERVED REGIONAL 925MB TEMPERATURES NOTED ABOVE. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 329 AM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE HAS BEEN A COOL/MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER WAVE WAS BEGINNING TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS TAKEN ON SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING...AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE BETTER PARCEL LIFT...AND AS ELUDED TO EARLIER CONCERNING A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED TROUGH...THE ABILITY TO LIFT THE PARCEL HAS DIMINISHED AND IS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN OR IN SOME LOCATIONS LGT SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SOLID LIFT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SNOW GROWTH WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA AND ALONG THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST COLD AIR PUSH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT ANY SIZEABLE WARMING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL TRY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTN AND COULD PULL COOLER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS SUCH AS WAUKEGAN TO CHICAGO AND HOLD TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIFT LATER TODAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND EVEN CHANCES. HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE MID-LVLS HOLDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN PUSHES EAST EARLY FRI. SO EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME THINNING TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER. CONTINUED NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 329 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A LOBE OF VORTICITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI...AND AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE CONTINUED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL SEE INCREASED PARCEL LIFT AND LIKELY BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRI...THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SUPPORT MAINLY LGT RAIN BY EARLY FRI AFTN. HEADING INTO FRI EVENING THE STRONGER VORT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN WISC WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR. THERMAL TROUGH AT 850MBCONTINUES TO BE PROGGED IN THE -8 TO -14 DEG C RANGE BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO LGT SNOW LATE FRI EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LGT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND A DUSTING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD APPROACH AN INCH. FORTUNATELY THE DURATION OF LGT SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A CANADIAN SFC RIDGE DIVES SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY AND COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP COVERAGE AND STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THE THERMAL TROUGH OF -8 TO -12 DEG C WILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY COOL SAT. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN BY SAT NGT AND SHIFTS THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE STEADILY ADVECTING NORTH BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASING. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE SUN NGT...SO HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF ISO THUNDER. TEMPS SHUD APPROACH 50 TO THE MID 50S BY SUN AFTN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE MON/TUE PERIODS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT WEAKENING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. LINGERING TROUGHING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS LIKELY. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AMONGST SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT WEAK RIDGING MAY ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AFTER THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTN/EVE...BROAD SFC RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER TUE/WED. THIS WOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS SOME WEAK RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE SEASONAL IN THE EXTENDED. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER FAR NERN IL AND INTO NWRN IN...BUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS...PCPN HAS LARGELY TRANSITIONED OVER TO MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE. CIGS HAVE SETTLED INTO MVFR RANGES. WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER CIGS AND THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE NO LONGER SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF IFR CIGS FROM THE TAFS. EXPECT THAT THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DAYTIME WARMING OCCURS AT THE SFC...WHILE THE COLD CORE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SET UP AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THAT SHRA SHOULD BE SCT...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AT THIS POINT. WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES OVER THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SOME GUSTINESS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH NWLY WINDS OCNL GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO VEER BRIEFLY TO NNELY AT ORD/MDW/GYY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK TO NWLY-WLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. KREIN && .MARINE... 318 AM CDT LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 35 KT GALES SPREADING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... 929 PM CDT MINOR TWEAKS TO SLOW TEMP DECREASE THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING AND TO ADJUST HOURLY POP GRIDS PER RADAR TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERALL CHARACTER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST. MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS CLASSIC WRAP-AROUND PRECIP GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HOWEVER...MAINTAINING PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WI/FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...AS MID- UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES AND MAINTAINS TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR LIGHT PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...SLOW COOLING OF THE COLUMN WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR KEEPING PRECIP ALL RAIN...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRYING ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB PER RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS BY MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS AND THEREFORE ANY MIX OF WET SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID-30S OR BETTER COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP AND MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENT BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN WITH DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 311 PM CDT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN PRECIP SHIELD STILL SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...STILL IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS GREATER ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THIS PRECIP SHIELD EXIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER VORT LOBE. THIS REINFORCING ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE SCATTERED/SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH BETTER FOCUSING EXITING ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND DO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WITH THIS IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION. LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WITH THESE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH RAIN OR EVEN BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME...DONT ANTICIPATE THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS A RETURN TO RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RODRIGUEZ && .LONG TERM... 228 PM CDT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING P-TYPE FORECASTS. ON FRIDAY...A STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DRIVING H85 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C FRIDAY TO NEAR -15C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER WAVE RESULTS IN BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER THAT MAY NOT SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WINTRY PRECIP TYPE CHANCES. THE UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH A WEAK TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL. LES CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HELPS TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING THAT WARM OF TEMPS...THUS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER BUT CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE. CIGS REMAIN A MIXED BAG OF HIGHER END MVFR AND LOWER END VFR WITH RAGGED BASES...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF LOWERING CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SO...HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CIGS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THE IFR OCCURRING... BUT IF THE DRIZZLE REMAINS PERSISTENT ST BASES SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT OFF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP. KREIN && .MARINE... 228 PM CDT LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25-30 KT ON THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 AND POSSIBLY 35 KT SPREADING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION...THEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1109 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 The cold front that swept through our area during the day bringing the rainfall and damaging wind gusts to extreme southeast Illinois this afternoon, has shifted off to our east early this evening. The latest water vapor loop indicates the rather vigorous upper wave was progressing into Indiana with several small bands of light rain tracking southeast into the area. We should see these around central Illinois for a few more hours before ending during the early morning hours. After that, gusty northwest winds will bring in another batch of chilly air for the next day with models indicating some very cold air aloft streaming southeast into the area on Thursday. This may lead to some widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over far west central through southwest Illinois during the afternoon. These may produce some small hail or graupel in a few locations before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating late in the afternoon or early evening. Have already made some wording adjustments to the ZFP with the last update sent out earlier in the evening. No other changes have been made since then that would warrant another update at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over Lake Michigan, with cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. Widespread light to moderate rain continues to fall in the vicinity of the boundary...primarily from just east of I-55 to the Indiana border. Further west, the precipitation has ended across the Illinois River Valley. The front will continue to progress eastward into Indiana over the next few hours, with rain lingering across the far E/SE KILX CWA through early evening. Meanwhile, an area of showers beneath the trailing upper-level trough currently over eastern Iowa will drop southeastward into central Illinois this evening. Based on latest regional radar mosaic and HRRR forecast, have included low chance PoPs for showers everywhere this evening, followed by a few lingering showers across only the N/NE CWA after midnight. Will be a breezy and cool night, with W/NW winds gusting to between 20 and 25 mph. Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s northwest of the Illinois River, to the lower 40s south of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Active northwest flow to continue a couple more days. Next clipper system currently in northern Alberta will race southeast into northern Minnesota by Thursday morning before weakening, while an upper trough swings across the Great Lakes. The remnants of the clipper are progged by most of the models to be accompanied by a cold pocket of -30C air near 500 mb, which will track into west central Illinois by Thursday afternoon. Have added some isolated thunder into the southwest CWA forecast for the afternoon due to this increased instability from the cold pocket. However, general trend in the forecast was to reduce the overall PoP`s by about 20- 30%, concentrating the higher values over the southwest CWA (near the clipper remnants) and the far northeast CWA (closer to the upper trough). Kept isolated showers in between. A few showers will linger into Thursday night as a surface boundary moves through. Next wave will drop out of Ontario early Friday and race through the Midwest. Little change in PoP`s for Friday, mainly concentrating them from Bloomington to Lawrenceville eastward. With this fast flow, windy conditions to continue for Thursday and especially Friday, when gusts near 35 mph are likely. Hard freeze threat continues to loom for Friday night, as 850 mb temperatures dip to about -12C, near record lows for this time of year. There is a bit of concern across the eastern CWA where skies will be a bit slower to clear, but the strong cold-air advection may overcome this. Continued with lows generally 25-30 degrees. Lower 30s likely in most areas Saturday night as well, but increasing southerly flow will keep things a bit warmer across the west after midnight. Significant pattern shift on deck early next week as a split upper flow converges over the central U.S. This will result in temperatures returning closer to normal. While the longer range models focus on an upper trough passing through Monday night and Tuesday, the ECMWF is more prominent with digging it further south, with temperatures cooler than the GFS. Both models maintain a cold front moving through the area Sunday night and Monday, and have increased PoP`s to the likely range (60-70%). With the deeper ECMWF, it pushes the front fully through the area by Monday evening, whereas the GFS lingers it and the associated rain about 6-12 hours longer. Consequently, have kept some likely PoP`s over the southeast into Monday night, with the remainder of the area drying out. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016 Little change from earlier thinking, a mix of low VFR cigs with periods of MVFR cigs along with isolated light showers into Thursday morning. Forecast soundings suggest any MVFR cigs should lift to VFR by afternoon with the better chances for rain west of I-55, and even in that area, coverage appears to be too limited. As a result, will handle that with VCSH at this time. Surface winds will be west to northwest at 12 to 17 kts tonight with a few gusts around 22 kts, especially at DEC and CMI. Look for northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts on Thursday with gusts around 23 kts at times by late morning into the mid afternoon hours before winds quickly subside to less than 10 kts just after 00z. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/ FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP. TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SAT 06Z. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AT VFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHEN SNOW MIXES IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF THOUGH AFTER SAT 07Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/50 SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
744 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/ FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP. TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SAT 06Z. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AT VFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHEN SNOW MIXES IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF THOUGH AFTER SAT 07Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON CLEARING). SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH). CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/ EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP. BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS. GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24- 48 HRS. FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE 70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT. WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DEAL WITH A SOME WHAT SNOW SQUALL TYPE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THIS BAND WILL ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MORE MINOR CHANGES TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85 TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN THIS REGARD. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING TONIGHT/S FREEZE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85 TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN THIS REGARD. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING TONIGHT/S FREEZE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85 TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN THIS REGARD. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING TONIGHT/S FREEZE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85 TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN THIS REGARD. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING TONIGHT/S FREEZE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RUNNING HIGH...AND AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL AT TIMES. WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHTNING ON THE ENTLN EARLIER NEAR JKL...HOWEVER IT HAS SUBSIDED THIS HOUR. STILL PLAN TO KEEP DECENT WINDS IN THE TAFS...AS FRONT AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL THIS SAID MOST SITES WILL RETAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE VIS TO NEAR OR INTO MVFR. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY AND BRING CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH HAVE ALLOWED ADDITIONAL MIXING AND SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. AS SUCH UPGRADED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO A WIND ADVISORY AND ADDED A FEW COUNTIES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS UPDATE ACCOUNTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH. IN FACT CLEARING HAS ALREADY WORKED INTO WAYNE COUNTY AS OF 1330Z. THE CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW INCREASED MIXING AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS. AS SUCH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO POINT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 WITH WINDS BEING FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SW COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TODAY TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MATCH UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS TONIGHT BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS. ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 ...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS LIFTING OUT OF OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE/ENHANCED MOISTURE/ PUSHING EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY. BEHIND THE FRONT A DECENT MID LEVEL JET IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THE REGION KEEPING WINDS GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE JET AXIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO DIVE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROF AND SHIFT THE TROF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT LAST UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FINAL UPPER WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA BRINGING MORE RAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...TO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...AND THE -20C LEVEL WILL BE UNUSUALLY LOW. WITH CONVECTIVE CURRENTS POTENTIALLY REACHING -20C...HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH MID 30S DURING THE NIGHT...PRECIP WHICH LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS IS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S...AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE SET UP FOR A VERY HARD FREEZE IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH. IF THOSE CLOUDS DO NOT SHOW BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY SHOULD BE SEEN BY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD US. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED SO THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH. A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGHEST POP BEING ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THIS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MIDWEEK...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 ...STRONG GUST WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. WHERE THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE STRONGER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT SME AND LOZ...WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS FURTHER NORTH. WHILE SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-059-060-104-106-107. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>088-113>118. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS UPDATE ACCOUNTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH. IN FACT CLEARING HAS ALREADY WORKED INTO WAYNE COUNTY AS OF 1330Z. THE CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW INCREASED MIXING AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS. AS SUCH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO POINT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 WITH WINDS BEING FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SW COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TODAY TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MATCH UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS TONIGHT BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS. ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 ...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS LIFTING OUT OF OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE/ENHANCED MOISTURE/ PUSHING EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY. BEHIND THE FRONT A DECENT MID LEVEL JET IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THE REGION KEEPING WINDS GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE JET AXIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO DIVE INTO KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROF AND SHIFT THE TROF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT LAST UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FINAL UPPER WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA BRINGING MORE RAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...TO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...AND THE -20C LEVEL WILL BE UNUSUALLY LOW. WITH CONVECTIVE CURRENTS POTENTIALLY REACHING -20C...HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH MID 30S DURING THE NIGHT...PRECIP WHICH LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS IS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S...AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE SET UP FOR A VERY HARD FREEZE IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH. IF THOSE CLOUDS DO NOT SHOW BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY SHOULD BE SEEN BY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD US. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED SO THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH. A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGHEST POP BEING ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THIS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MIDWEEK...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 LOW LEVELS HAVE SATURATED THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR VARIABLE CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-059-060-104-106-107. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069- 079-080-083>088-116-117. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 616 PM UPDATE...LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY, WE SEE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN, THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS. RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH 1-2 INCHES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT WARM TEMPERATURES, WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RIVERS RISING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE, WITH ICE MOVEMENT POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN RIVERS. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST MAINE AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 70 KTS WILL MAXIMIZE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THEREFORE, RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE. AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER BANGOR REGION INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE CENTRAL PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE BEING NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN RISES ON AREA RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, AS WELL AS SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. (PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THE NEXT CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AS A 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE. AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER BANGOR REGION INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE CENTRAL PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON FRIDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT GRAUPEL AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL UNDER AN INCH. THE COLDER AIR WILL SLOW DOWN SNOW MELT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS CLEARING AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. FURTHER NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO 40F. LATER SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE ALLAGASH TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. USING AN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR THE STORM TRACK...THE NET RESULT IS A GLANCING BLOW FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTPORT AND CALAIS. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A COOL AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INCREASING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS 40F IN ELLSWORTH AND MACHIAS. WINDS WILL GUST TOWARDS 30 MPH WITH A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT INTO THE AREA. WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A SECOND LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL. MON MRNG THE WARM FRONT FRONT THE SECOND LOW MOVES INTO SW MAINE AS THE HIGH RETREAT INTO THE N ATLANTIC. MID DAY MON THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO CNTRL ME...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM NW ME TO THE OHIO RVR VLLY. MON EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NE ME...EXTENDS SW ALONG DOWNEAST ME INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. FROM MON EVNG TO TUES EVNG THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS...THE SYSTEMS LOW MOVES EAST INTO CNTRL QUEBEC...WERE IT WILL CO-LOCATE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEEPING THE AREA IN UNSETTLED WEATHER IN TO WED MRNG. BY WED AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE MARITIMES...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING THURS MRNG INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BLOCKING SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA...CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NOT THE SAME BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...THE ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER. LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT CAN BE EXPECTED KBGR/KBHB THROUGH 06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: LIKELY VFR TOWARDS BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH OF HUL...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS AND RAIN/SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND FINALLY BECOME VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 30 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FEET LATE TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS DURING FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT THAT AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY AS WIND GUSTS REACH 30 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER BASIN. SOME RIVERS COULD RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. IN ADDITION...ICE STILL REMAINS ON SOME OF THE RIVERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...INCLUDING THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS. THE COMBINATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT ALONG WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO CLOSE COINCIDENCE OF NEW MOON AND MOONS PERIGEE. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS AT APPROXIMATELY 11:38 PM TONIGHT AT BAR HARBOR AND 11:48 PM AT EASTPORT. LARGEST WAVES AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THIS HIGH TIDE. ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A STORM SURGE OF APPROXIMATELY 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WATER LEVELS OF 14.0 TO 15.0 FEET RELATIVE TO MLLW. THIS COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE DEER ISLE CAUSEWAY... STONINGTON HARBOR...WINTER HARBOR AND IN THE VICINITY OF MACHIAS. NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 18 FEET AND PERIODS OF 11 TO 12 SECONDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE STORM TIDE. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING RUNUP AND OVERTOPPING AT THE SEAWALL ROAD...OTTER COVE...SCHOODIC POINT AND ROQUE BLUFFS. THIS COULD DEPOSIT SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE ROCKS AND SMALL DEBRIS ON ADJACENT ROADWAYS...LARGE VOLUMES OF WATER WASHING ONTO ROADWAYS AND EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS IS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TO VEHICLES AND PEDESTRIANS. EROSION OF BEACHES AND EXPOSED AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO WAVE ACTION. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ACTION AND FRESH WATER RUN OFF COULD ALSO PRODUCE TIDAL FLOODING IN THE BANGOR AREA. WATER LEVEL IN BANGOR COULD COME CLOSE TO 11.60 FEET AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 031. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA/MJ SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...CB/DUDA/MCW MARINE...CB/DUDA/MCW HYDROLOGY...DUDA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
520 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 525 PM UPDATE... HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS AT COASTAL AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...COASTAL AND INTERIOR YORK...AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES. RAP AS WELL AS HRRR INDICATE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM. PORTLAND IS CURRENTLY NEARING SUSTAINED 35 MPH. MOST SITES WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH GUSTS HOWEVER. MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MISO/MESOSCALE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS OVER- SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL LOOKING FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WHITES. SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 800 AND 900 PM WITH PRECIP LIFTING OUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WINDS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PEAK DURING THE THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL BE CONTINUING HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON NORTHERN RIVERS AND STREAMS IN WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND STREAM SOME OF WHICH WILL APPROACH BANKFULL RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL NOT BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. LOOKING FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE SHOWERS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR VARIABLE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOW PRESSURE MON-TUE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR AS COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS REGION. COOLER BUT DRY END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT. VFR ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIELINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH 4 AM. WIDELY SCT STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLY LOW END GALES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE THIS EVENING RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, (1158 PM IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD. THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ025>028. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ020>022. NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-013-014. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...HANES SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH LONG TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1105 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT... BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && 15Z UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS/TDS/POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. STEADIER MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING UP ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAX GUSTS COMING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY BUT EXPECT LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SPLASH-OVER ON EXPOSED BEACHES. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 530AM UPDATE... AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR SKIRTING COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS AND TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WHERE WARMING CONTINUES. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE HAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WARM ADVECTION FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE THRU SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EDGE EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES. OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2 INCHES OF QPF WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO FLOOD STAGE. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND LESS WIND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE NH BORDER. FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK... LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND 00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI. LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD. THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES. THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ025>028. WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ020>022. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
526 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT... BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 530AM UPDATE... AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR SKIRTING COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS AND TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WHERE WARMING CONTINUES. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE HAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WARM ADVECTION FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE THRU SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EDGE EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES. OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2 INCHES OF QPF WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO FLOOD STAGE. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND LESS WIND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE NH BORDER. FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK... LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND 00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI. LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD. THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES. THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ025>028. WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ020>022. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
350 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT... BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE WX. WE HAD SNWFL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FNT. WE HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WAA FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE THRU SRN CANADA...AND A COLD FNT WILL SLOWLY EDGE EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FNT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES. OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE MTNS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2 INCHES OF QPE WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO FLOOD STAGE. A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC. WARM SLY FLOW OVER THE COLD WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND LESS WIND AT THE SFC. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS MORE SLY THAN SELY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE NH BORDER. FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS ERODE THE COLDER SFC AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FNT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRI IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK... LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. RNFL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND 00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI. LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD. THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES. THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ025>028. WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ020>022. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ LEGRO/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WHITEN THE GROUND WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SIMILAR TO LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH. NO SIGNS OF A PROLONG WARM UP. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP/ HRRR PROGS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 IN PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD. HOWEVER AFTER REVIEW OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS NEXT TO NIL DESPITE BEING IN A GENERAL THUNDER AREA DEFINED BY SPC. ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A THUNDER FREE FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO CRASH TONIGHT ALONG WITH SPOKES OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY THE TIME ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL RESIDE TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION SAVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN MARYLAND. MODELS APPEAR TO OVERCAST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN WHAT IS PREDICTED...THIS IS WHY WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE NCEP SUITE. BUFR SOUNDINGS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ILLUSTRATE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING YIELDING POTENTIALLY DECENT SIZE WET SNOW FLAKES AROUND 6Z WHEN RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. WINDS WON`T CONTRIBUTE TO A HUGE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE...WHICH IS WHY AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY PASSAGE...WITH COLD FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THAT DISTURBANCE SPAWNING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE RIDGES...AND OVER ZONES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. AS ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE GFS WAS USED IN GENERAL CONSTRUCTION OF THE PRECIP DEPICTION FOR THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST...WHILE MODIFIED SOURCE TEMPS WERE USED FOR SNOW RATIOS GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS MODEL/GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF TOTALS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING SHORTWAVE INITIATES WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THAT WARMTH WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL WEATHER WITH THAT SYSTEMS PASSAGE. GIVEN SHORTWAVE TIMING ISSUES AND CONVOLUTED FLOW PATTERNS...SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LONG TERM FORECAST CONSTRUCTION. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR/VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TRAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HOLD PRIMARILY TO MVFR...BUT COULD DROP TO IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH FROM 03Z TO ABOUT 08Z...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...98 NEAR TERM...98 AVIATION...TAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BAYFIELD COUNTY INTO WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS THE WIND HAS BACKED TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AT DEVILS ISLAND...BUOY 45006 AND AT THE RAWS STATION ON SAND ISLAND. WE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST...BACK INTO EASTERN ASHLAND AND OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTIES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARNING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP BAYFIELD COUNTY FROM THE WARNING PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND SEE ITS IMPACT ON THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. WE WILL BE INCREASING THE COVERAGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS...12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS WERE SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE WAA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT 500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300 PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY 00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD WILL END THIS EVENING...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER BAYFIELD AND WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTIES. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPS AS WELL...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KHIB/KDLH/KINL LATE IN THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND MIXING DEEPENS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 10 40 20 INL 7 34 25 41 / 10 20 40 40 BRD 15 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10 HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30 ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ002>004. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 900 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save some pockets of the STL urban heat island. A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average. TES && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE Saturday evening. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 637 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE Saturday evening. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Light northerly winds initially will continue veering to the east overnight before shifting to the southeast after 12z. Speeds will increase after sunrise with sustained winds of 12-16 kts likely through the late morning and afternoon. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...00z Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the southeast tomorrow by mid day. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...00z Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the southeast tomorrow by mid day. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 31 51 46 65 / 5 0 10 50 Quincy 23 48 42 64 / 5 0 20 60 Columbia 28 54 47 67 / 5 0 20 50 Jefferson City 27 56 48 69 / 5 0 20 50 Salem 27 48 39 64 / 10 0 10 50 Farmington 27 53 42 66 / 5 0 20 40 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102-103. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-104-105. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-038>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ037-043-053- 054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...18Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...18Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 High pressure will make its way into the region through the day today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight will be light out of the northeast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 High pressure will make its way into the region through the day today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight will be light out of the northeast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis moves over the taf sites late tonight. Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today will diminish tonight. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis moves over the taf sites late tonight. Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today will diminish tonight. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset, becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset, becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 326 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1151 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...PMM FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening. Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals. Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as today. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening. Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals. Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as today. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below 12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...PMM FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below 12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...PMM FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Tonight) Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out toward 7 pm. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now, the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are needed. Hawblitzel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0 Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0 Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5 Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5 Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0 Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Tonight) Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out toward 7 pm. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now, the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are needed. Hawblitzel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0 Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0 Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5 Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5 Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0 Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained winds and gusts should be weaker than today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...32 FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained winds and gusts should be weaker than today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...32 FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region. Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak instability and this activity will continue into parts of our northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be out of our area by 00z. Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses. Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast. Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax around daybreak on Friday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>092-094>098-106. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 ...18z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal. The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather. We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds, low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus, sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of 40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible that any shower activity could help gust potential across central MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been posted for all but far southwestern Missouri. We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor. Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day. We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas. Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential. Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to the area by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast. Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax around daybreak on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 ...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today... A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today. Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all but a few counties across central Missouri. Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for Friday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue into Saturday as winds turn around to the south. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>092-094>098-106. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Frye FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather section below. Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with a wind advisory this afternoon. Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS. Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep temperatures from climbing too much today. Britt .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Tonight through Saturday) Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for the entire CWA. Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge will move across the area on Saturday. Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0 to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas north of I-70. (Sunday through Wednesday) Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and Illinois. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out toward 7 pm. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now, the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are needed. Hawblitzel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I do not expect any precipitation on Friday. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER...REINFORCING SECONDARY FRONTS WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT... AND AGAIN FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY... REST OF TODAY: COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA... CURRENTLY BISECTING CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT PACE AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT BRUSHED ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN AND SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ALONG WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS INCLUDING THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. BUT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING... WITH A SECONDARY PEAK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A WNW JET CORE OVER TN. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTIGATED BY HEATING/MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 65-72. -GIH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY: A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AND 50KT LLJ ARE DRIVING A BAND OF CONVECTION THROUGH WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NC/SC. DESPITE A RAPID DEWPOINT RECOVERY SINCE 00Z...THERE IS LITTLE ANALYZED INSTABILITY PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OF NEAR SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING AT BEST...WITH SOME MORE APPRECIABLE BUT WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 13Z. RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE SOME SHEARING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND A RADAR TRENDS TEND TO SUPPORT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER FORCING. STILL... THE INTENSITY OF THE LLJ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME 30-40KT GUSTS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BETTER AIRMASS LATE THIS MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE THREAT OF A SEVERE STORM...WHILE LOW...WILL ALSO INCREASE. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MOST. BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND DRYING...WITH MIXING TO AS HIGHS 800MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. WITHING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SECONDARY VORT LOBE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON EVENING..WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUESTS TO 35-40KT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO STAY IN THE 30-35KT RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 25- 30KT RANGE ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU DRIFTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S..IF NOT UPPER 30S INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY... LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRI...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~20 M/12 HR) LINGERING OVER SC/SOUTHERN NC. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT...WITH A CONCENTRATED PRECEDING AREA OF MUCH STRONGER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~120 M/12 HR) AND COLD POOL ALOFT (~ MINUS 38 C) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A CLIPPER-TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH RAPID DEEPENING LIKELY AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE WAVES REACH THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TRAILING POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. DESPITE SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ON FRI...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND MOISTENING/AROUND 700 MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS...THEN WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR SURFACE FRONT. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...IT WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT - IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS IN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG CAA AND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AS THE CENTER OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE OH VALLEY...30-40 KTS OF NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-UPPER 50S. THE CENTER OF CP HIGH...AROUND 1030 MB BY 12Z SUN...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1285 METERS AT 12Z SUN SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE 20S --BETWEEN 22 AND 28 DEGREES-- COLDEST IN OUTLYING WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...AND HIGHEST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SOME LINGERING NNW STIRRING WILL POSSIBLE IN A LINGERING LIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 435 AM THURSDAY... THE CENTER OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUN AND OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN AVG TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS THAT MAY INTERACT AS THEY APPROACH THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES --INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH(S)...CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY... WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING... CLOUD DECKS HAVE FINALLY RISEN TO VFR... AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS THROUGH FRI... AS OTHER DISTURBANCES SWING OVER THE REGION AROUND A DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY WITH PERIODIC STRONGER SURFACE GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION... ONE THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER FRI AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WSW OR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD... SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRI WITH THE RESUMPTION OF DEEP MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY VFR VSBYS... HOWEVER THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE ALTERNATING WITH DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGES... ALONG WITH PERIODS OF BRISK AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS... ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BUT ANY CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR WITH VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH/MLM NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH SHORT TERM...2 LONG TERM...2 AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
955 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER...REINFORCING SECONDARY FRONTS WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY... REST OF TODAY: COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA... CURRENTLY BISECTING CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT PACE AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT BRUSHED ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN AND SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ALONG WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS INCLUDING THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. BUT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING... WITH A SECONDARY PEAK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A WNW JET CORE OVER TN. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTIGATED BY HEATING/MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 65-72. -GIH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY: A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AND 50KT LLJ ARE DRIVING A BAND OF CONVECTION THROUGH WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NC/SC. DESPITE A RAPID DEWPOINT RECOVERY SINCE 00Z...THERE IS LITTLE ANALYZED INSTABILITY PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OF NEAR SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING AT BEST...WITH SOME MORE APPRECIABLE BUT WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 13Z. RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE SOME SHEARING OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND A RADAR TRENDS TEND TO SUPPORT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER FORCING. STILL... THE INTENSITY OF THE LLJ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME 30-40KT GUSTS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BETTER AIRMASS LATE THIS MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE THREAT OF A SEVERE STORM...WHILE LOW...WILL ALSO INCREASE. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MOST. BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND DRYING...WITH MIXING TO AS HIGHS 800MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. WITHING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SECONDARY VORT LOBE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON EVENING..WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUESTS TO 35-40KT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO STAY IN THE 30-35KT RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 25- 30KT RANGE ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU DRIFTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S..IF NOT UPPER 30S INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY... LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRI...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~20 M/12 HR) LINGERING OVER SC/SOUTHERN NC. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRI NIGHT...WITH A CONCENTRATED PRECEDING AREA OF MUCH STRONGER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~120 M/12 HR) AND COLD POOL ALOFT (~ MINUS 38 C) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A CLIPPER-TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH RAPID DEEPENING LIKELY AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE WAVES REACH THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TRAILING POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. DESPITE SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ON FRI...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND MOISTENING/AROUND 700 MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS...THEN WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR SURFACE FRONT. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...IT WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT - IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS IN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG CAA AND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AS THE CENTER OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE OH VALLEY...30-40 KTS OF NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-UPPER 50S. THE CENTER OF CP HIGH...AROUND 1030 MB BY 12Z SUN...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1285 METERS AT 12Z SUN SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE 20S --BETWEEN 22 AND 28 DEGREES-- COLDEST IN OUTLYING WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...AND HIGHEST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SOME LINGERING NNW STIRRING WILL POSSIBLE IN A LINGERING LIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 435 AM THURSDAY... THE CENTER OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUN AND OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN AVG TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS THAT MAY INTERACT AS THEY APPROACH THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES --INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH(S)...CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY... A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS...MOST LIKELY MVFR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WIND GUST OF UP TO 30-35KT FOR KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE SITES BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL VARY AREAWIDE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVE QUICKLY AS A WEST- SOUTHWEST WIND STRENGTHENS AND CLOUDS SCATTER/LIFT TO 6-7K FT. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME MAY EXCEED 30KT AT KGSO/KINT BEFORE DYING OFF TO 10KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KGSO/KINT. OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH/MLM NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH SHORT TERM...2 LONG TERM...2 AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 626 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. CURRENT FOCUS IS TRACKING THE LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH POSE A WIND THREAT THIS MORNING...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WATER VAPOR DATA ILLUSTRATING NICELY THE APPROACHING AND AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC EARLY THIS MORNING INLAND AND MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY WIND ENERGY ACCOMPANIES THIS EARLY SPRING TROUGH WITH A 925-850 MB WIND MAXIMA DEPICTED IN RAP13 ISOTACH PLOTS BETWEEN 4AM INLAND TO 9-11 AM OFF THE SC AND NC COAST RESPECTIVELY. CONSEQUENTLY SPC HAS UPPED THE ANTE WITH `MARGINAL` RISK THIS MORNING. ITS ONLY FITTING A CHANGEABLE WEEK SHOULD HAVE A CHANGEABLE DAY AND TODAY AFTER THE UNSETTLED START...SUNSHINE SHOULD DEBUT IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON COULD REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MAXIMUMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE LIMITED SO SLIGHT CHANCE. COOL AIR ADVECTION LATE WILL BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAIN HEADLINES ARE DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW TURNING NW LATE SATURDAY...AS A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS DIPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. FREEZE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES FOR THE COLD AIR SUNDAY MORNING. ESSENTIALLY FAIR THIS PERIOD ASIDE FROM COLD AIR INTRUSION. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY ILM 31...FLO 28...MYR 33. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HELPS TO REVERSE THIS LATEST RELENTLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THIS IS A LATE DAY OCCURRENCE HOWEVER SUNDAY ITSELF WILL END UP QUITE CHILLY ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT MUCH MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN THIS NEW WARM ADVECTION REGIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE. SAID MOISTURE WILL YIELD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS QUITE WEAK. ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE AS MUCH HINGING UPON POSSIBLE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS ANY THERMAL ADVECTION. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 626 AM THURSDAY...STRONG ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED...A LINE OF CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE 40 KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE IF HEADING OUT THIS MORNING. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS FROM THE S SHIFTING TO WSW MID AFTERNOON. SEAS ELEVATED WILL PEAK AT 5-8 FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS. WSW WINDS BECOMING WNW LATE TONIGHT 15-20 KT AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SEAS RECOVERING EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME FAVORABLE AS MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS HOLD IN A 10-15 KT RANGE ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHER OFFSHORE. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONDITIONS WORSEN AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVISORY W WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND ALL OF SATURDAY MAY BE PLAGUED WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... SUNDAY A VERY TRANSITIONAL DAY AS WINDS START EARLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND AT SLIGHTLY AGITATED SPEEDS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RELAXATION AND ALL DAY DIRECTIONAL VEERING. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, THEN OVERHEAD, THEN OFF THE COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE AREA KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC/DL MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
314 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR DATA ILLUSTRATING NICELY THE APPROACHING AND AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC EARLY THIS MORNING INLAND AND MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY WIND ENERGY ACCOMPANIES THIS EARLY SPRING TROUGH WITH A 925-850 MB WIND MAXIMA DEPICTED IN RAP13 ISOTACH PLOTS BETWEEN 4AM INLAND TO 9-11 AM OFF THE SC AND NC COAST RESPECTIVELY. CONSEQUENTLY SPC HAS UPPED THE ANTE WITH `MARGINAL` RISK THIS MORNING. ITS ONLY FITTING A CHANGEABLE WEEK SHOULD HAVE A CHANGEABLE DAY AND TODAY AFTER THE UNSETTLED START...SUNSHINE SHOULD DEBUT IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON COULD REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MAXIMUMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE LIMITED SO SLIGHT CHANCE. COOL AIR ADVECTION LATE WILL BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAIN HEADLINES ARE DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW TURNING NW LATE SATURDAY...AS A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR MASS DIPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. FREEZE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES FOR THE COLD AIR SUNDAY MORNING. ESSENTIALLY FAIR THIS PERIOD ASIDE FROM COLD AIR INTRUSION. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY ILM 31...FLO 28...MYR 33. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HELPS TO REVERSE THIS LATEST RELENTLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THIS IS A LATE DAY OCCURRENCE HOWEVER SUNDAY ITSELF WILL END UP QUITE CHILLY ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT MUCH MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN THIS NEW WARM ADVECTION REGIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE. SAID MOISTURE WILL YIELD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS QUITE WEAK. ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE AS MUCH HINGING UPON POSSIBLE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS ANY THERMAL ADVECTION. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...STRONG ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED...A LINE OF CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE 40 KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE IF HEADING OUT THIS MORNING. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS FROM THE S SHIFTING TO WSW MID AFTERNOON. SEAS ELEVATED WILL PEAK AT 5-8 FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS. WSW WINDS BECOMING WNW LATE TONIGHT 15-20 KT AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SEAS RECOVERING EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME FAVORABLE AS MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS HOLD IN A 10-15 KT RANGE ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHER OFFSHORE. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONDITIONS WORSEN AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVISORY W WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND ALL OF SATURDAY MAY BE PLAGUED WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... SUNDAY A VERY TRANSITIONAL DAY AS WINDS START EARLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND AT SLIGHTLY AGITATED SPEEDS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RELAXATION AND ALL DAY DIRECTIONAL VEERING. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, THEN OVERHEAD, THEN OFF THE COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE AREA KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
109 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE COAST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DIP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BY 9Z AREAS WEST OF I-95 WILL SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION...REACHING COASTAL LOCALS AFTER DAYBREAK AND CLEARING OFF THE COAST MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND MAGNITUDE AND BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INTO THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENE AND WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK...MOVING OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WERE SKIRTING THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS EVE AS THEY MOVED TO THE N. OUR AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE WILL LIFT NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THU MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A BRIEF TIME VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. S TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AND THIS WILL QUICKLY TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK JUST OVER 1 INCH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN... THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER...BUT UP TO A QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING...15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STABILIZE THIS EVE WITH A TENDENCY TO EITHER HOLD STEADY OR RISE TOWARD MORNING UNDER THICK CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...CERTAINLY WELL ABOVE THE LOWS OF LAST NIGHT. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING FAST PACED CHANGES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY THU BUT COLD ADVECTION IS INITIALLY LIMITED. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT...CLEARING OUT SKIES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT STARTING LATE THU NIGHT COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...THE BEGINNINGS OF A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO. MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND FROM TIME TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE OF THE STRONGER WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AHEAD OF THE WAVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A NON-ZERO POP BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET. WHILE IT IS TRUE STRONG WAVES TEND TO PRODUCE PRECIP WHEN IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AND THE CORE OF THE WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. THE SECOND WAVE WILL HELP DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP W-NW FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NW-N THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL A DEEP FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR MASS WILL COME FROM WELL INTO NORTHWEST CANADA PULLING DOWN A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT OVER FORECAST AREA LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN GUSTY NW-N WINDS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TO HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL GET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE 850 TEMPS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH LOWEST READINGS AROUND -4-5C INSTEAD OF -8C. THERE SHOULD BE PLACES THAT REACH BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR CROPS OR PLANTS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AND THEREFORE REMAIN ALERT FOR UPDATES OF POSSIBLE FREEZE. CAA WILL CUT OFF COME SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS COULD AFFECT EITHER SAT NIGHT LOW OR SUN NIGHT LOW AS ANY DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERALL WOULD THINK THIS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON SUN NIGHT TEMPS BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING CENTER OVERHEAD SUN AFTN AND THEN A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSER TO 40 SUN NIGHT. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT NEAR 60 FOR SATURDAY AND THEN NEAR 70 BY MONDAY UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THOUGH. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE TUES. TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE BACK UP AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEDGE SETTING UP FOR MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND PCP POST FROPA ON WED. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 109 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO THU NIGHT. A S TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50+ KT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PEAKING IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE WITH A FEW 9 FT SEAS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THU MORNING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SCA ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THU AND POSSIBLY PART OF THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY THU BUT WINDS ARE SLOW TO VEER TO WESTERLY. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD APPROACH 30 KT SUSTAINED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO PINCHED GRADIENT. WESTERLY FLOW DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THU NIGHT AND GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX. THIS ALLOWS FOR SEAS DROPPING UNDER 6 FT...ACROSS SC WATERS FIRST AND THEN ACROSS NC WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA HEADLINE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH 25 KT. OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT DESPITE SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE UP AROUND SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY SATURDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH A STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW. STRONG NW-N FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL MIXED UNDER STRONG CAA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT CLOSER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX. EXPECT WIND TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS. BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE TO S AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS. BY MON NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP PACE REACHING UP TO 10 TO 15 KT PUSHING SEAS BACK UP A FT OR TWO LEAVING MOST SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE BY TUES MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A FEW SITES PERIODICALLY HITTING 30MPH SUSTAINED. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925MB-850MB WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASING. PLUS...THE SITES THAT ARE HITTING 30MPH ARE RIGHT AT 30MPH AND NOT STRONGER...FOR ONLY BRIEF PERIODS. -SN/-RA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. NOT SEEING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION...AND IN FACT MOST ROADS ARE WET ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS (SFC TEMPS 32F-36F). && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST ND AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTH MAN AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. MAN TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO UP IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THE AFTN FOR RANSOM AND SARGENTCOUNTIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MAN SAT NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND EAST ZONES FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OF A PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MORE SHOT OF COOLER AIR AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWER THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKS DRY AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/GFS DOES NOT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFTING OF CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR BY 00Z WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST. LAST WILL BE BJI WHICH MAY STILL HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR FORECAST. VFR CIGS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...HOPPES LONG TERM...RIDDLE AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1205 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY NORTH AS WE ARE OBSERVING WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT GARRISON AND AROUND THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREAS. OTHER SITES NORTH OF THE ADV HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. OTHER GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKING GOOD SO ONLY MINIMAL OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES AT THE MOMENT AND WHERE I CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE SKY TO REMAIN CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS. DO NOT FEEL IT IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FOSTER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES AND MOVED UP THE START TIME TO THE CURRENT HOUR FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON THE AWOS/ ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN...WHICH HAVE MET ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE ABOUT 11 UTC...AND RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-LAYER WINDS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z- 18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AT KJMS HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION CONCERNS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY BKN MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS COVERING KMOT/KJMS/KBIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KDIK AND KISN SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF LOW VFR/MVFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOW CU TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ018>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...NH FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A FEW SITES PERIODICALLY HITTING 30MPH SUSTAINED. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925MB-850MB WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASING. PLUS...THE SITES THAT ARE HITTING 30MPH ARE RIGHT AT 30MPH AND NOT STRONGER...FOR ONLY BRIEF PERIODS. -SN/-RA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. NOT SEEING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION...AND IN FACT MOST ROADS ARE WET ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS (SFC TEMPS 32F-36F). && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST ND AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTH MAN AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. MAN TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO UP IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THE AFTN FOR RANSOM AND SARGENTCOUNTIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MAN SAT NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND EAST ZONES FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OF A PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MORE SHOT OF COOLER AIR AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWER THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKS DRY AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/GFS DOES NOT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 IFR CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN. EASTERN ND WAS UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN EASTERN ND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING. MORE MVFR CIGS MAY ROTATE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHWEST MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...HOPPES LONG TERM...RIDDLE AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FOSTER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES AND MOVED UP THE START TIME TO THE CURRENT HOUR FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON THE AWOS/ ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN...WHICH HAVE MET ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE ABOUT 11 UTC...AND RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-LAYER WINDS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z- 18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AT KMOT/KJMS HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION CONCERNS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY BKN MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS COVERING KMOT/KJMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18-20Z THURSDAY. KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF LOW VFR/MVFR UNTIL 16Z. OTHERWISE SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 22KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-037-048-051. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-043-044. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ043>047-050. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...KS FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z- 18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KJMS FROM 12Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT KDIK AND KJMS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25KT AND GUSTS TO 36KT...BETWEEN 14Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ043>048-050-051. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...KS FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z- 18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KJMS FROM 12Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT KDIK AND KJMS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25KT AND GUSTS TO 36KT...BETWEEN 14Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ043>048-050-051. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...KS FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
808 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVED INTO SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF MODOC COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FURTHER NORTH AND MOVED INTO THE BLY/BEATTY AREA. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE BY 900 PM PDT. GRIDS WERE UPDATED AND SENT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE INTERESTING WITH MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING COVERAGE COULD BE MORE THAN ISOLATED ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /FB && .AVIATION...FOR THE 09/0Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BETWEEN 5-6Z WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TO START, THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR STRATUS UP TO THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI && .MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRI 8 APR 2016...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW DECREASING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW, WE`LL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OFFSHORE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SWELL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 16 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL GET THAT HIGH, BUT HAVE TRENDED THEM UPWARD. IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE SWELL HEIGHT, THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THEM HIGHER. -PETRUCELLI && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016/ DISCUSSION...08/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN. THE OFFSHORE REX BLOCK THAT BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO THE MEDFORD CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAS BROKEN...BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL SET UP FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OFFSHORE IS NOW OVER THE AREA...BUT A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEAR 35N 135W. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA HAS TURNED SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. IT IS EARLY FOR THIS TYPE OF MOISTURE...BUT THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY FOR MEDFORD ALSO CAME VERY EARLY...EARLIER THAN EVER BEFORE AS A MATTER OF FACT. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AFTER A HOT SPELL USUALLY MEANS THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. JUST WHERE THAT AREA WILL BE IS PROVING TO BE A MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE. TODAY ISN`T LOOKING GOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW THE MOST INSTABILITY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CASCADES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT KMFR SHOWED 0.66 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS LESS NOW. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING. SPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF NON- THERMAL FORCING. THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE MUCH OF ANYTHING...JUST A FEW CELLS OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTY. SO...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES GET GOING WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A LACK OF NON-THERMAL FORCING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE MEDFORD CWA. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS MAY STILL BE SET TODAY...BUT THEY WON`T BE SHATTERED THE WAY THEY WERE THURSDAY. ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL SET UP TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EASTERLY...BUT IT WILL NOT CUT OFF THE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL JUST PUSH THE TRAJECTORY FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE HOT SPOT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES AND NEAR EAST SIDE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIR MASS IN GENERAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA WHERE IT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...AND BY SUNDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE OVER OREGON AND THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRENDS ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND THE EAST SIDE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA THEN. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER STILL...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A KICKER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BUT IT WILL SET UP AGAIN MONDAY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING MONDAY IT WILL BE OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE SAME OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS. LONG-TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION DETAILS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER 500MB HEIGHTS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A 10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS LOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY. THE EC FEATURES A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES AN UPPER LOW SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. GFS MODEL TRENDS DO POINT TOWARD LOWERING HEIGHTS OFFSHORE...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS...WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY INTACT. SO...IN SUMMARY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS COOL AND WET TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY WEATHER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN UPPER LOW POSITIONING AMONGST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST EXPECT IFR TO SPREAD INLAND INTO THE COOS BASIN INTO THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE COASTAL IFR DURING FRIDAY THOUGH WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR STRATUS UP TO THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING. SK MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRI 8 APR 2016...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW DECREASING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW, WE`LL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OFFSHORE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SWELL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 16 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL GET THAT HIGH, BUT HAVE TRENDED THEM UPWARD. IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE SWELL HEIGHT, THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST THEM HIGHER. -PETRUCELLI && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ FJB/NSK/MAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING AN APPROACHING BAND OF RAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH SOUTHERLY LL JET/PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE PRECEDING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PA MTNS AT 05Z...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 3KM RESULTING IN LITTLE IN A LOT OF VIRGA AND LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE SFC. EVENTUALLY SOME LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS LL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BUT LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE ARE LOW EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M40S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER SNOW EVENT. THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES. MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR THE 07/06Z TAFS THROUGH 08/06Z | ISSUED 200 AM EDT 4/7/16 EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH ONLY SCT -SHRA OVER THE WRN 1/2. SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE 11-16Z ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE IN ZNY SECTOR PER LATEST HIRES COSPA/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL LKLY SEE BORDERLINE IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS INVOF MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT LOW DEWPOINTS AM SKEPTICAL OF THE GUIDANCE BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR AND THEREFORE HAVE STAYED MORE IN THE MVFR RANGE. STRONG LLJ FROM AROUND 210 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP 35-50KT LLWS IN TAFS THRU 12-14Z. EXPECT A COLDER POST- FRONTAL WNW FLOW PATTERN TO PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN...THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT LEAD TO SCT INSTABILITY -SHRA WITH A ISOLD TSTM PSBL OVER THE SRN 1/3. BLYR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR RA/SN MIX OVER THE WRN 1/3 BY THIS EVENING AND -SHSN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY-MONDAY FRI...MVFR CIGS/-SHSNRA WEST ENDING. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. DECREASING WINDS. FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RA/SN. BCMG WINDY. SAT NGT-SUN...DECREASING WINDS/GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SUN NGT-MON...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH CFROPA MON NGT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
100 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING AN APPROACHING BAND OF RAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH SOUTHERLY LL JET/PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE PRECEDING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PA MTNS AT 05Z...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 3KM RESULTING IN LITTLE IN A LOT OF VIRGA AND LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE SFC. EVENTUALLY SOME LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS LL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BUT LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE ARE LOW EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M40S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER SNOW EVENT. THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES. MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND A MID DECK WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER W PA ALIGNED WITH LLJET HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE NW MTNS...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT THIS WILL ERODE A BIT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS - LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF KBFD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD THE RAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LOWER AND RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AS THE RAIN BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST /AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS/ - AND PREDAWN OVER THE EAST AS WARMER LLJET OVERRUNS SOME COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. BIGGEST CONCERN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE S/SE AND LLWS AS 850MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THU. REDUCTIONS EARLY WILL CEDE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE USUAL WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /THAT WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT/. SECONDARY TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TSTM TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SE LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN SW THEN WESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY...BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN TODAY. OUTLOOK... THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS. TSTM POSS SE. FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY. SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BRISK...BLUSTERY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 915 PM...MINOR TWEAKS TO POP WERE MADE OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF NOTE IN THE MTNS THOUGH SOME DRIFTING COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE UPDATED THRU MORNING. THE LATEST GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS FREEZING TEMPS WITHIN THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS-IS...THOUGH I WILL CHECK/REISSUE THE TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORT LOBES. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE SUCH LOBE EXTENDING FROM SERN KY INTO CENTRAL NC...STRADDLING THE NRN CWFA. RADAR RETURNS EAST OF THE MTNS HAVE DWINDLED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BETTER DPVA HAS SHIFTED OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL INDICATED OVER THE MTNS. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WILL OCCUR BEFORE POPS RAMP UP SLIGHTLY AGAIN NEAR THE TENN BORDER AS THE FORCING SHIFTS FROM THE DEPARTING VORT MAX TO NW FLOW AS DESCRIBED BELOW. IN THE LLVLS...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ATOP THE CWFA. A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR ACRS THE MTNS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING 850 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS OVER THE NC MTNS. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH ON THE WINDS...ESP UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. I AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...AND OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND WHICH ONLY BUMPS UP WINDS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLACED. THE GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS NW FLOW SNOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT...WITH GENERALLY A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LWR 30S IN THE MTNS (WHERE IN THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD). MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ACRS THE PIEDMONT. ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 12-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER BRUSHING THE NORTHERN TIER LATE MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DEEP MOISTURE...AND POP WILL BE KEPT AT SUB SLIGHT CHANCES UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. EVEN THEN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDOWN MONDAY. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE LOOKS QUITE LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF 20S MINS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS WINDS SLACKEN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAY KEEP FROST FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOUTH TO SW FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON MAXES NEAR CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...THEN DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST... PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH INCREASING POP MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POP ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. CONFUSION REIGNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE GFS DOES CONTINUE ITS TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOWS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US OPENING UP AND SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN IT AND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE ECMWF STARTS OUT LIKE THE GFS BUT KEEPS A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER MOVING UPPER LOW. THIS LOW NEVER PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND NOW REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE SE THURSDAY WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY...BUT SOME ENERGY DOES UNDERCUT AN ANTICYCLONE WITH DEVELOPS FROM THE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER THE NE US AND TAKES ON A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A FAST MOVING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH THE GULF LOW...BUT NOT AS WET AS PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH BRINGS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT BEING WIND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A NOTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT BACKING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NE OF THE TERMINALS AROUND THAT TIME...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ON ACCOUNT OF THE STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ARE LIKELY AT TIMES OVER KAVL AND OTHER MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION...FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. THOUGH THE GUSTS WILL RELAX A BIT TOWARD MIDDAY...ATYPICALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AFTN. OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS INVOF A WEAK COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .FIRE WEATHER... FOR SC...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SC FORESTRY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE UPSTATE FOR SATURDAY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT. THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WINDS LOOK CLOSE TO RED FLAG...BUT FUEL MOISTURES ARE STILL A BIT TOO MOIST FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. FOR GA...FUELS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 10 PCT TODAY...BUT FURTHER DRYING WILL LIKELY PUSH THEM TO THE 8 PCT THRESHOLD. BOTH THE RH AND WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA...SO AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR NE GA. FOR NC...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SOLIDLY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR SATURDAY. NC FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATES FUEL MOISTURES OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO INCREASE WILDFIRE DANGER. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR IREDELL-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND AND ALL COUNTIES EAST. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-09 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 85 2001 35 1916 62 1922 24 1972 KCLT 89 1893 46 2003 64 1908 25 1972 1916 KGSP 89 1965 48 2003 63 1999 27 1972 1938 1922 RECORDS FOR 04-10 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2001 38 1907 60 1959 23 1985 1929 1908 KCLT 90 2001 44 1984 65 1922 28 2007 1893 1985 KGSP 91 1995 44 2003 63 1922 24 1916 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058- 059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509. HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 501>507. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ068>072-082-508>510. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058- 059-062>064. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ036- 037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...HG LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...WIMBERLEY FIRE WEATHER...ARK/WIMBERLEY CLIMATE...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
759 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BRISK...BLUSTERY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM...IN LIGHT OF UPDATED POP/WIND/SKY GRIDS THRU SATURDAY...CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK FINE. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORT LOBES. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE SUCH LOBE EXTENDING FROM NE TN OVER INTO THE CAROLINA SANDHILLS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACRS WRN NC INVOF THIS FEATURE...BUT A LULL IN THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE NC MTNS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPS ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THESE WILL OCCUR AS SNOW. IN THE LLVLS...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ATOP THE CWFA. A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR ACRS THE MTNS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING 850 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS OVER THE NC MTNS. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH ON THE WINDS...ESP UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. I AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...AND OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND WHICH ONLY BUMPS UP WINDS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLACED. THE GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS NW FLOW SNOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT...WITH GENERALLY A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE EAST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LWR 30S IN THE MTNS (WHERE IN THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD). MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ACRS THE PIEDMONT. ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 12-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER BRUSHING THE NORTHERN TIER LATE MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DEEP MOISTURE...AND POP WILL BE KEPT AT SUB SLIGHT CHANCES UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. EVEN THEN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDOWN MONDAY. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE LOOKS QUITE LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF 20S MINS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS WINDS SLACKEN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAY KEEP FROST FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOUTH TO SW FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON MAXES NEAR CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...THEN DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST... PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH INCREASING POP MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POP ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. CONFUSION REIGNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE GFS DOES CONTINUE ITS TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOWS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US OPENING UP AND SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN IT AND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE ECMWF STARTS OUT LIKE THE GFS BUT KEEPS A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER MOVING UPPER LOW. THIS LOW NEVER PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND NOW REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE SE THURSDAY WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY...BUT SOME ENERGY DOES UNDERCUT AN ANTICYCLONE WITH DEVELOPS FROM THE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER THE NE US AND TAKES ON A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A FAST MOVING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH THE GULF LOW...BUT NOT AS WET AS PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH BRINGS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT BEING WIND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A NOTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT BACKING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NE OF THE TERMINALS AROUND THAT TIME...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ON ACCOUNT OF THE STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT ARE LIKELY AT TIMES OVER KAVL AND OTHER MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION...FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. THOUGH THE GUSTS WILL RELAX A BIT TOWARD MIDDAY...ATYPICALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AFTN. OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS INVOF A WEAK COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .FIRE WEATHER... FOR SC...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SC FORESTRY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE UPSTATE FOR SATURDAY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT. THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WINDS LOOK CLOSE TO RED FLAG...BUT FUEL MOISTURES ARE STILL A BIT TOO MOIST FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. FOR GA...FUELS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 10 PCT TODAY...BUT FURTHER DRYING WILL LIKELY PUSH THEM TO THE 8 PCT THRESHOLD. BOTH THE RH AND WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA...SO AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR NE GA. FOR NC...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SOLIDLY MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR SATURDAY. NC FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATES FUEL MOISTURES OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO INCREASE WILDFIRE DANGER. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR IREDELL-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND AND ALL COUNTIES EAST. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-09 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 85 2001 35 1916 62 1922 24 1972 KCLT 89 1893 46 2003 64 1908 25 1972 1916 KGSP 89 1965 48 2003 63 1999 27 1972 1938 1922 RECORDS FOR 04-10 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2001 38 1907 60 1959 23 1985 1929 1908 KCLT 90 2001 44 1984 65 1922 28 2007 1893 1985 KGSP 91 1995 44 2003 63 1922 24 1916 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509. HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 501>507. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ068>072-082-508>510. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ036- 037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CSH NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...HG LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...WIMBERLEY FIRE WEATHER...ARK/WIMBERLEY CLIMATE...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE...WIHT GUSTS PRESERVED DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS OF 1040 PM...PREFRONTAL PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS GROWN INTO A REGION OF APPARENTLY STRATIFORM RAIN NOW MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS OF EASTERN TN/KY. FURTHER SOUTH IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR...A NARROW QLCS EXTENDS FROM AROUND CHATTANOOGA SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FEATURE IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A REGION OF NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. A COUPLE OF DISCRETE CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND THESE ARE TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR GA ZONES. UNSEASONABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED ONE OF THESE LEADING CELLS TO PRODUCE UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. HOWEVER AS THESE MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THEY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO LEAD TO THEIR DEMISE. THIS IS THE TREND SHOWN FROM MESO GUIDANCE. I HAVE REVISED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY. THOUGH THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS WERE CLOSE TO THE LATEST HRRR TIMING...THE ACTIVITY HAS OUTPACED THE HRRR SO FAR THIS EVENING...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. ALSO REVISED OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THOUGH THE PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED...PEAKING PERHAPS AT 100-200 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT...HIGH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND VERY HIGH 0-1KM HELICITY WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THESE STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL QLCS STORM STRUCTURE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA. MILD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 50S EAST. THURSDAY...BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND THINNING CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE WSW DURING THE DAY...PEAKING ACROSS THE NC NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT GUSTS ABOVE 46 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CHANNELIZED H5 VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURE AND LLVL NW WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SCT TO NUM SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT KAVL TO UPPER 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RETURN TO WINTER EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THICKNESS TUMBLES STEADILY AS RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORCED UP THE TN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE PASSAGE OF A FOLLOW-UP SHORT WAVE...THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CHANNELED VORTICITY...WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPREAD OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN TO START WITH...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL FROM ABOUT 5K FEET AT 00Z FRIDAY DOWN ALMOST TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY....AND WILL THEN STAY SOMEWHERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER THROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM IF THE QPF GUIDANCE HAD NOT MADE A TREND TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A BLEND OF THE WETTER WPC GUIDANCE AND THE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBDUED NAM/SREF...WE STILL GET THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...THE TIMING OF ONSET BEING THE THIRD PERIOD MEANS WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IF THE TREND CONTINUES...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 32F ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AVERY COUNTY...AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...EXPECT OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...TO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD ACROSS THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE BELOW 32F ACROSS ALL THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LINGERING STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FROST OUTSIDE THE MTNS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...OR MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES THE PLACE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY SLIDES EAST AND MODERATES ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER FREEZE OR NEAR FREEZE ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RISING HEIGHTS...MODERATING AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE... MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THAN EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS...SO HAVE POP INCREASING TO LIKELY WEST AND CHANCE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER MENTION OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL. THE GFS THEN OPENS UP YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US MOVING IT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 06/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD. NATURALLY...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE GULF LOW PRESSURE...BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...KEEPING THE CWFA DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE TIMING OF THE MODELS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POP INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DUE TO RAIN. BASED MODEL CLOUD COVER AND TIME HEIGHTS...SCATTERED LOW VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...WITH SCATTERED MVFR AT KAVL. AS MOISTURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SECOND SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL RETURN...WITH MVFR AT KAVL...AND LOW VFR AT SITE TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KAVL...WHERE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AS WELL. WINDS WILL VEER FROM S TO WSW BY DAWN...EXCEPT NW AT KAVL...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RETREAT TO THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS...AND WITH WINDS UP SLIGHTLY AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z KCLT MED 64% MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP LOW 57% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 71% MED 66% LOW 56% LOW 57% KHKY HIGH 85% MED 61% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU LOW 57% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND MED 64% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JAT/NED/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
915 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MORE THAN 150 MILES WNW OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE AND DEL RIO TO CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATE A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING 1.24 INCHES AT KBRO AND 0.78 INCHES AT CRP. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCH LANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO GO UNDER A LOT OF MODIFICATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR TRACK OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWA. MOST MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QPF/RAINFALL PASSING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH ONLY THE HRRR SPREADING GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN OUR AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY. WITH ALL THIS SAID AND ONLY ONE MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL CUT BACK ON AREAL COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MONITOR THE CONVECTION AND REVIEW THE 00Z MODEL PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...LIGHT EAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SPREADING OR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE MVFR CEILING TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BROKEN CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM SEASON TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH DIFFLUENT FIELD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE SW US. CLOUD COVER STARTING TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO LARGE TOWERS QUITE YET. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE MAIN PEAK TIMING WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY NE AND DISSIPATING. HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES...BUT GOING FORECAST HAS THE IDEA. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE RACING AWAY FROM THE REGION AT THAT TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT BREEZY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW STARTING TO RAMP UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN THE HEATING SOME...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST WHERE ANY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...TRANSIENT...SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM INTERESTING...BUT LIKELY NOT TREMENDOUSLY EXCITING FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MILD H5 RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO COLORADO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS. A MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST INFLOW LOOKS LIKELY ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER SCALE FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF NORTH MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW...WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT THOUGH ERRATIC NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OUT OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL LOWS WILL TROUGH OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...BUT DESPITE THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW... ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP STABILIZE CONDITIONS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TROUGH OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE PROCESS...WITH THE HELP OF A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE FRONT AND REMAINING UPPER ENERGY FOCUS OVER THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NO STRONG DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT AS EAST WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK THOUGH POPS REMAIN MOSTLY SILENT FOR NOW. DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...IN REACTION TO PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CHECK NEAR NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SNEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW RAMPS UP DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS WILL DRIVE INCREASING SWELLS...STARTING AT 3 FEET TONIGHT REACHING 6 FEET BY SUNSET SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE A TIGHT LOCAL GRADIENT...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING. AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST...MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 79 71 80 / 10 10 10 0 BROWNSVILLE 67 80 69 81 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 66 83 69 83 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 68 83 69 86 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 84 68 89 / 20 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 74 71 75 / 10 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 59/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1247 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED AT INGLESIDE AND NAVY CORPUS. LATEST HRRR AND SREF ENSEMBLE INDICATE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 09Z AND LINGER UNTIL 14-15Z THURSDAY. MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC SHOWING PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO TO IFR FOR CRP/ALI. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR CRP/ALI FOR UPDATE TO IFR TEMPO LIFR FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT VCT BUT COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG THERE ALSO BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MEXICO MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST/INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FCST TO EXPAND THE REGION OF FOG EXPECTED OVER THE SERN CWA/ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANDER OVER THE SRN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SERN CWA/ADJACENT WATERS NEAR THE COAST. SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE SERN CWA OVERNIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 61 81 64 80 68 / 0 10 10 20 10 VICTORIA 55 80 59 79 65 / 0 0 10 20 10 LAREDO 64 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 20 20 10 ALICE 57 82 60 82 67 / 0 10 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 65 79 68 79 70 / 0 10 10 20 10 COTULLA 61 83 62 83 66 / 0 10 20 20 10 KINGSVILLE 59 82 63 81 69 / 0 10 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 65 78 68 80 71 / 0 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OVERHEAD TODAY...AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE COLDER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 835 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PWAT CONTINUING TO SHOW QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE THIS EVENING FROM DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO VERY DRY AIR ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. THIS ALSO DEPICTED VIA VERY DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO 5H OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND LINGERING LOW DEWPOINTS. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN KY/TN ATTM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS HOLDING TOGETHER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY ACROSS FAR SW SECTIONS DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY. ALSO DECENT AXIS OF LIFT SEEN ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FADING HEADING EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SLOWLY RAMPS UP. THUS BEEFED UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL A BIT SOONER OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT WHILE SPEEDING UP ENDING SOONER PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MOUNTAINS...AND BY MID MORNING THURSDAY EAST IF NOT SOONER. DESPITE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONGER STORMS TO THE WEST...WONT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION PENDING TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND POST FRONTAL ON THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS THURSDAY MAY TEST WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...40 KTS...ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING PER WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE COOLING VIA RAINFALL THROUGH DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...ALTHOUGH INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NEUTRALIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROF...THAT IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE 12Z GEFS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3 MB AND 850MB WINDS 35-40 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN NW NC THAT MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY...BUT WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY. BEFORE A RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS ALLOW FOR A RECOVERY IN TEMPS. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS...CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES AND HIGHER WINDS AT 850MB...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL OR HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES...THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. GEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS 2- 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND KEPT HIGHS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. IN SUMMARY...A BLUSTERY...WINTER-LIKE DAY IS ON TAP SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IS REPLACED BY A ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROF...AND PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SO KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AFTER SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IS QUITE HIGH FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAY THAT FLYING CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL SUBSIDE...GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD PUSH SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KBLF AND KBCB. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT KBLF AND KLWB. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AT KBLF AND KLWB DURING FRIDAY MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...PH AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LARGE SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THIS LOW WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS. && .MARINE...AS OF 9:10 PM PDT FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 6:04 PM PDT FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR DURING THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED APPROX 700 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS LOW WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. VICINITY OF KSFO...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN LIGHT SE WIND SATURDAY. VFR THIS EVENING TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS. && .MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: CANEPA MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... 842 PM CDT BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. STRONG VORT DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIGHT CIRCULATION EVEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVE OVER KMKX RADAR SITE AT 840 PM. SEVERAL OBS OF LESS THAN HALF MILE VIS WITH THIS INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN A QUICK INCH IN 30 MINUTES REPORTED IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN IL PRIMARILY FROM ABOUT I-39 EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO ABOVE 700 MB...AND 50+ J/KG OF CAPE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTERWARD IN COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER RELATIVELY MILDER LAKE WATERS. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 304 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80 J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA. MTF && .LONG TERM... 400 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE: - UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. - LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON SATURDAY MORNING. - MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD 850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80 OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY 7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION. SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE. RC && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... 1238 AM...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL ACROSS RFD/NORTHWEST IL. THESE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT GYY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THOUGH HOW SOON THESE PUSH EAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT LIKELY AROUND OR BY 09Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIAL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIP...PERHAPS SLEET WITH A LITTLE SNOW AND RAIN...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN WITHIN A FEW HOURS. HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A PROB FOR THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO AND PERHAPS PREVAILING PRECIP FOR A TIME IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WELL INTO THE MORNING AT GYY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FAST MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE EASTERLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST IL/RFD AND THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CMS && .MARINE... 425 PM CDT A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. RC && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/ FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP. TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A TRANSISTION ON IN THE UPPER FLOW. THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE WEEK GOES ON...ECMWF SUGGESTS STRONG RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPS IN THE LATER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NW FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF. FURTHERMORE A DRY FORECAST LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021- 029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/50 SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...TDUD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1227 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/ FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP. TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/50 SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today. Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire weather section. Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight. Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers. Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area. Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime radiational cooling in check. The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally. A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will continue to shift from northeast to east overnight, then shift further to the southeast by mid/late morning. Expect these southeast winds to become gusty by late morning/early afternoon at 20-25kts with these strong winds persisting through the evening hours. Winds may diminish slightly for a bit during the early to mid evening hours. There is some concern for LLWS this evening as a 50-60kt 850mb quickly develops. May start seeing some increasing mid-level clouds late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching wave. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high. Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH increases through the afternoon hours. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056. Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Hennecke FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON CLEARING). SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH). CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILLBE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL RESIDE IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE OR LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE FA. CAPE VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TUESDAY TO THE LOWER TOMID 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGEFROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON CLEARING). SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH). CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/ EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP. BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS. GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24- 48 HRS. FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE 70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT. WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 MADE NEAR TERM POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH BLENDING OF LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DEAL WITH A SOME WHAT SNOW SQUALL TYPE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THIS BAND WILL ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MORE MINOR CHANGES TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85 TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN THIS REGARD. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING TONIGHT/S FREEZE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING A FEW LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE...BRINGING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST PLACES WERE VFR. THE REMAINING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 12Z...AND THEN LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR OR ABOVE 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BAYFIELD COUNTY INTO WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS THE WIND HAS BACKED TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AT DEVILS ISLAND...BUOY 45006 AND AT THE RAWS STATION ON SAND ISLAND. WE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST...BACK INTO EASTERN ASHLAND AND OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTIES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARNING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP BAYFIELD COUNTY FROM THE WARNING PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND SEE ITS IMPACT ON THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. WE WILL BE INCREASING THE COVERAGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS...12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS WERE SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE WAA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT 500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300 PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY 00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB/KINL. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BRIEFLY IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 20 40 20 INL 6 34 25 41 / 10 30 40 40 BRD 10 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10 HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30 ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-004. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140>148. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area, until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the freezing mark later this morning. Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900 hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20 percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames. Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains. Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon. Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation chances beyond midday Monday. Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the associated trough will likely change several times between now and then. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from this afternoon and into the late evening hours. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...32
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 343 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east- southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon, allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM. NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by 12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA. Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday. Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon. They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are expected to hold off until after the valid period. TES && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90 Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70 Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80 Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80 Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80 Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 217 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region. Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks, where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s. South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north. This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this episode of convection. While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape - deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts organized. We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning. Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over the nation`s midsection. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east. Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low level wind shear develops. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from this afternoon and into the late evening hours. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from this afternoon and into the late evening hours. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east. Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low level wind shear develops. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east. Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low level wind shear develops. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1138 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save some pockets of the STL urban heat island. A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average. TES && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon. They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are expected to hold off until after the valid period. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO- Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL- Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 900 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save some pockets of the STL urban heat island. A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average. TES && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE Saturday evening. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 637 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE Saturday evening. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Light northerly winds initially will continue veering to the east overnight before shifting to the southeast after 12z. Speeds will increase after sunrise with sustained winds of 12-16 kts likely through the late morning and afternoon. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...00z Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the southeast tomorrow by mid day. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...00z Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the southeast tomorrow by mid day. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 31 51 46 65 / 5 0 10 50 Quincy 23 48 42 64 / 5 0 20 60 Columbia 28 54 47 67 / 5 0 20 50 Jefferson City 27 56 48 69 / 5 0 20 50 Salem 27 48 39 64 / 10 0 10 50 Farmington 27 53 42 66 / 5 0 20 40 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102-103. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-104-105. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-038>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ037-043-053- 054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...18Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...18Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the east southeast by morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 High pressure will make its way into the region through the day today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight will be light out of the northeast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 High pressure will make its way into the region through the day today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight will be light out of the northeast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis moves over the taf sites late tonight. Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today will diminish tonight. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis moves over the taf sites late tonight. Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today will diminish tonight. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset, becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset, becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times. Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires. This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming out of the low to mid 60s today. This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be much of a precipitation signal on Saturday. Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday, setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two inches over southern Missouri. We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday. Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms. A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by next Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058- 069>071-082-083-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 326 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning will run from 200 AM until 800 AM. Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front. High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and dry weather. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20 Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20 Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20 Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20 Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10 Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL- Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon; however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient. Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to that critical threshold. Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non- zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours Saturday. Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80 degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of more robust updrafts late in the evening. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough to prevent critically low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1151 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...PMM FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening. Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals. Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as today. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening. Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals. Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as strong as today. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below 12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...PMM FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below 12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...PMM FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most sites. TES && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Tonight) Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out toward 7 pm. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now, the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are needed. Hawblitzel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0 Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0 Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5 Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5 Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0 Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Tonight) Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between 10 and 15 mph. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Friday - Saturday) Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures) continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours. Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis. Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10- 15 degrees below normal. (Saturday Night - Monday Night) Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern. Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the area by late Monday night. (Tuesday - Next Thursday) Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England. Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued dry conditions. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out toward 7 pm. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now, the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are needed. Hawblitzel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread, especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag Conditions if min RH values evolve lower. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0 Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0 Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5 Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5 Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0 Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained winds and gusts should be weaker than today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...32 FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two. Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri. Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon. By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained winds and gusts should be weaker than today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls across the region on Sunday. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020- 021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...32 FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region. Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak instability and this activity will continue into parts of our northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be out of our area by 00z. Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses. Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather products for Friday at this time. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again expected Saturday afternoon. Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms develop within that warm advection pattern. Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall. Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast. Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax around daybreak on Friday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>092-094>098-106. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 ...18z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal. The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather. We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds, low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus, sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of 40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible that any shower activity could help gust potential across central MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been posted for all but far southwestern Missouri. We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor. Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day. We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas. Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential. Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to the area by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast. Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax around daybreak on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 ...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today... A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today. Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all but a few counties across central Missouri. Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for Friday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue into Saturday as winds turn around to the south. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>092-094>098-106. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Frye FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather section below. Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with a wind advisory this afternoon. Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS. Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep temperatures from climbing too much today. Britt .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 (Tonight through Saturday) Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for the entire CWA. Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge will move across the area on Saturday. Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0 to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas north of I-70. (Sunday through Wednesday) Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and Illinois. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out toward 7 pm. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now, the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are needed. Hawblitzel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016 Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I do not expect any precipitation on Friday. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO- Washington MO. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL- Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
440 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND BRING SOME SNOW TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 400 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WAS ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP AND NEARLY CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT- OFF IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NY/PA STATE LINE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS BEST HANDLED WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING CURRENT RADAR WELL. THIS BAND WILL MEANDER NORTH AND BRING 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT- OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OR SOUTH A BIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN WITHOUT BENEFIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS COULD BE REACHED IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS A BIT MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN THAN IN ROCHESTER WHERE CLOUDS MAY LAST LONGER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOUND BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AND IN THE MID LEVELS WARMING WILL COMMENCE. TO OUR WEST A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL GATHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FORM WITHIN THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMING ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A SIZABLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY OVERCOME...BUT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW TO FALL OVER WNY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CARRIES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS TO THEN SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR SNOW. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY EVENING AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA MILDER AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT STILL YET TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND A SUCH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FOUND TO START THE DAY...WHILE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS THEN FALLING THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MILDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...THESE VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG A NEARING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW LIKELY HERE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON THE TUG HILL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH... COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND... FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER- LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE THE START OF APRIL. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE LAKESHORES TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS (FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND. BUFFALO... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909 ROCHESTER... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974 WATERTOWN... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997 NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT. ROCHESTER WAS 33 DEGREES AT 1 AM SO IT CANNOT BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMTODAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO 1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME SNOW THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AT 100 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO WAS ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP (NEARLY CLOSED OFF) UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT-OFF IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS IS BEST HANDLED WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING CURRENT RADAR WELL AND OTHER GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSE. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST AFTER THE LOW PASSES THIS MORNING. WITH SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT-OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OR SOUTH A BIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A MESSY WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... BRINGING SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND FINISHING AS RAIN. SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL START ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -15C SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EQUATE TO LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME LOW 20S CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS & FLURRIES WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN TEMPERATURES FALLING ANY FARTHER OVERNIGHT. INTO SUNDAY... SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP... HELPING TO ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE EARLY WILL QUICKLY FADE AS DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OUT OF A ROBUST WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM ALBERTA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY... A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND FRONTOGENSIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. A SECONDARY WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE... AND WITH STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH A PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST COMES IN FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENT... FAIRLY DRY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. AS PRECIPITATION TRIES TO OVERSPREAD THIS DRY AIRMASS... IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE THIS DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERING WITH VIRGA OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW... AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL AID IN ANY ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DYNAMICALLY COOLING BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION STARTS. THUS EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT... BUT MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD PICK UP AROUND AN INCH... WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER... KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUICKLY ERODED OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL SEE SNOW CHANGE OVER TO A COUPLE TO A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES... 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE FROM AROUND -5C AT THE START OF THE EVENT TO AROUND +5C BY MONDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH... IF ANY... FREEZING RAIN MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE... AND IN AREAS WHERE THAT AIR CAN GET TRAPPED IN VALLEYS IT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS... AS WELL AS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING. BEHIND THIS NARROW TRANSITION AREA... PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT... WITH THE ENTIRE AREA OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH IN WESTERN NY... ABOUT A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN GENESEE VALLEY... AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD... WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO M50S. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DOMINATE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ON MONDAY... BUT WITH LIGHTER INTENSITY THAN THE MORE STEADY RAIN SEEN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOWEST ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES... WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... HOWEVER THERE REMAINS TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ALREADY WITH TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF NOTABLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT 12 HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS A BAROCLINIC WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM HAVE A MUCH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MOST OF THE RAIN ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY... FOR NOW HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH... COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO AT OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND... FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER-LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE THE START OF APRIL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE 08Z TO 16Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY LOWERING TO 1-2SM IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING WITH RADAR/MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE ON TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE HERE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE A COMPACT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY NORTHEASTERLIES/NORTHERLIES AND CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER WAVES TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS IMPROVING CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS (FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND. BUFFALO... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909 ROCHESTER... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974 WATERTOWN... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997 NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO 1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL/JJR CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA. WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOME AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST TO SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK...AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 26 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021- 031>034-040>044. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035- 042-045-046. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...JV FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA TO ERIE TO YNG. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS. DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6 TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA... CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN... FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH 800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST... RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN... MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. KURTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60 HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40 GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 10 10 0 50 PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80 DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW /ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN TODAY. HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76 CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND KHZL. 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL THIS MORNING. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 525 AM EDT 4/9/16 09Z UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAFS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/HIRES MODELS AND SFC TEMPS. EXPECT STEADIEST SNOW AND LONGER DURATION OF IFR VIS OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. DRYSLOT SHOULD LIMIT IFR AT AOO AND PERHAPS UNV AND HIRES GUIDANCE BREAKS UP SECOND AREA OF SNOW PIVOTING NW OF SFC LOW TRACK. RISING SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS SUGGESTS RA/SN MIX AND IMPROVED VIS BUT HEAVIER PCPN RATES MAY FAVOR SN PTYPE AND IFR VIS. WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE AMD/S AS NECESSARY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. PREVIOUS...SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
512 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW /ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN TODAY. HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76 CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND KHZL. 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL THIS MORNING. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW /ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN TODAY. HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76 CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND KHZL. 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL THIS MORNING. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 66 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041- 046-049>053-057>059-066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SFC. THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z. SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY 12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. HOWEVER...BASED ON UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND WINT WX ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA SUGGESTS. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041- 046-049>053-057>059-066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SFC. THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z. SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY 12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. HOWEVER...BASED ON UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND WINT WX ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA SUGGESTS. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WINDS HAVE DIMINSHED TO GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IN SN. STRONG WINDS BECOME A CONCERN LATER SATURDAY AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLSN BEING AN ISSUE FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND BRAKING ACTION. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY SAT NGT-SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS/BCMG VFR. DECREASING WINDS. SUN NGT-AM MON...RAIN/MIX PSBL NRN AIRSPACE. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005-010-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-046-049>053-057>059-066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-045. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ006-011. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
437 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO EAST AND BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL DIG INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SUNDAY THE HIGHEST LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS UNDER A FAIRLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER THIS CAP SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. TODAY A BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW LVL JET STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TOMORROW LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE WEST...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND THEN SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER MEXICO COULD MOVE INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE DRY LINE WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTY MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE VCT AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5-1.75 INCHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE INTACT THAN THE GFS AS IT KICKS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REACH WESTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE AREA...COULD SEE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TUESDAY NIGHT MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 79 68 80 72 85 / 30 10 10 20 20 VICTORIA 79 64 79 70 84 / 20 10 20 20 40 LAREDO 84 66 89 70 94 / 30 10 10 20 0 ALICE 82 65 84 70 91 / 30 10 10 20 20 ROCKPORT 78 69 77 71 81 / 20 10 20 20 20 COTULLA 82 65 87 68 92 / 30 10 10 20 10 KINGSVILLE 81 67 83 71 88 / 30 10 10 20 20 NAVY CORPUS 77 69 77 72 82 / 30 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LK/84...SHORT TERM TMT/89...LONG TERM
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing the convection shifts out of the area. After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures up with overnight lows around 60 degrees. .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Sunday Night) There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather will remain north of our area as better instability resides over Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. (Monday through Saturday) Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30 San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30 Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...CEILINGS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...APART FROM JET-STREAM CIRRUS AND DEBRIS CLOUD FROM THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LRD AREA. MOS GUIDANCE STILL INSISTENT THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL DVLP AROUND 07-08Z AT THE TERMINALS...SO WILL PUSH IT OFF ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO AROUND 20KT SUSTAINED. MVFR CIGS AGAIN POISED TO RETURN LATER THIS EVENING...EXCEPT AT MFE WHERE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL STAY UP LATER DUE TO A LOW-LVL JET AND KEEP CIG ABOVE 3KFT AGL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MORE THAN 150 MILES WNW OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE AND DEL RIO TO CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATE A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING 1.24 INCHES AT KBRO AND 0.78 INCHES AT CRP. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCH LANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO GO UNDER A LOT OF MODIFICATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR TRACK OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWA. MOST MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QPF/RAINFALL PASSING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH ONLY THE HRRR SPREADING GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN OUR AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY. WITH ALL THIS SAID AND ONLY ONE MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL CUT BACK ON AREAL COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MONITOR THE CONVECTION AND REVIEW THE 00Z MODEL PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...LIGHT EAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SPREADING OR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE MVFR CEILING TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BROKEN CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM SEASON TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH DIFFLUENT FIELD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE SW US. CLOUD COVER STARTING TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO LARGE TOWERS QUITE YET. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE MAIN PEAK TIMING WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY NE AND DISSIPATING. HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES...BUT GOING FORECAST HAS THE IDEA. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE RACING AWAY FROM THE REGION AT THAT TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT BREEZY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW STARTING TO RAMP UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN THE HEATING SOME...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST WHERE ANY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...TRANSIENT...SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM INTERESTING...BUT LIKELY NOT TREMENDOUSLY EXCITING FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MILD H5 RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO COLORADO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS. A MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST INFLOW LOOKS LIKELY ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER SCALE FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF NORTH MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW...WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT THOUGH ERRATIC NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OUT OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL LOWS WILL TROUGH OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...BUT DESPITE THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW... ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP STABILIZE CONDITIONS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TROUGH OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE PROCESS...WITH THE HELP OF A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE FRONT AND REMAINING UPPER ENERGY FOCUS OVER THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NO STRONG DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT AS EAST WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK THOUGH POPS REMAIN MOSTLY SILENT FOR NOW. DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...IN REACTION TO PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CHECK NEAR NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SNEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW RAMPS UP DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS WILL DRIVE INCREASING SWELLS...STARTING AT 3 FEET TONIGHT REACHING 6 FEET BY SUNSET SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE A TIGHT LOCAL GRADIENT...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING. AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST...MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53-SCHROEDER/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
343 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE WEATHER THIS MORNING IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY AROUND 30N 125W OR 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS HAS ABSORBED THE OLD LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV WHICH IS NOW ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THIS IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE MAY PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE COAST. THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO MENDOCINO COUNTY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS QUITE MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MENDOCINO COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AND BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY...BUT THEY ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME MAY FORM OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND POSSIBLY ADDED TO THE FORECAST. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS STOPPING SHORT OF THE AREA OR JUST OVER THE INTERIOR HILLS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE SO WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO EXACT ON THE LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN AND STARTS TO BECOME A NEW CUTOFF LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA AND STARTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO TO THE COAST. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING DRIER HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER WEATHER AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3500 FEET. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. MKK && .AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDINESS HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION REFLECTING THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS BUT ALSO DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AT KUKI DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AT TIMES REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY. && .MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND WELL EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL THEN SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK LOW PRES WAS EMERGING FROM THE DELMARVA AT 14Z PER MSAS. WATER VAPOR PLACED THE UPR LOW OVER WRN PA. TSTMS EVIDENT OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH THE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS CNTRL NJ SPREADING NWD. DRY AMS OVER THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. EXPECT SOME EROSION OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS IT APPROACHED THE REGION AS A RESULT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM KEEP THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN S OF THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR ANY BANDING THIS EVE. BANDS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...AS WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ABV 1000FT OUTSIDE OF ANY INTENSE BANDING. SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR TODAY AND REDUCED SNOWFALL THRU 18Z FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES THEREAFTER...HOWEVER THE RAP SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS ERN LI AFT 00Z...WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THIS SOLN YET ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING CONDS ON BREEZY N/NW FLOW. 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SW FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF NY STATE AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THAT FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AS THAT WARM FRONT APPROACHES... SOME MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...AND THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE 50S AND WILL APPROACH 60 IN SOME AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WINDS DOWN DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH JERSEY COAST AS OF 15Z MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. LGT RA MIXES WITH SN AT TIMES AS...THOUGH EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS IT`S UNLIKELY FOR ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SOME SLUSH THAT MIGHT REQUIRE TREATMENT. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR (IF IT DOES) WOULD BE 20-22Z IN THE NY METRO. NE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE JERSEY COAST. EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE IN WIND AROUND 00-01Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN AT THE LOW INTENSIFIES. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUN...VFR. .SUN NGT-TUE...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. SW WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE EARLY MON MORN THROUGH MON EVE. .WED...VFR. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS NNW AND INCREASE. SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS LEADING UP TO INCREASING WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. GALES ON THE OCEAN SHOULD END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING SEAS AND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25KT SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA ONCE GALES ARE OVER. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND. GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25KT OTHERWISE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS. SCA THEREFORE FOR TONIGHT. A GUST OR TWO TO 25KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS...BUT SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL DAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONDS SLOWLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... TODAY INTO TONIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PRECIP OR LESS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH 1/4 INCH ACROSS NE NJ/NYC METRO AND LI. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LI AND NYC/NJ METRO SEEING 1/2 INCH OF QPF. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUE ARE EXPECTED. ABOUT 1/2 INCH QPF POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEING THE LOWER HIGH TIDE...AND EASTERLY FLOW STILL RAMPING UP...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES STILL RUNNING HIGH...AND ONLY 1/2 TO 1 1/2 FT POSITIVE DEPARTURES NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LI WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE...BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS SURGE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE N/NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS ELSEWHERE. && .EQUIPMENT... AN EMERGENCY ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM REPLACEMENT AT WFO NEW YORK IS SCHEDULED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED DURING THAT TIME...AND SERVICE BACKUP WILL BE PROVIDED BY WFO MOUNT HOLLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...JMC/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...JC HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today. Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire weather section. Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight. Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers. Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area. Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime radiational cooling in check. The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally. A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will start out from the east around 10 kts, then veer to the southeast and increase to 15 kts with gusts to 24kts by 18Z. Winds south to southwest after 06Z around 15 kts. TSRA should remain south of the terminals in the 09Z-12Z time period, so left out for now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high. Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH increases through the afternoon hours. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056. Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...53 FIRE WEATHER...53 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 648 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region. Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks, where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s. South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north. This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this episode of convection. While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape - deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts organized. We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning. Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over the nation`s midsection. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 High pressure over the region this morning will remain in control of the areas weather through the day. An approaching storm system will shift surface winds out of the south late tonight and for the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of the regions terminals during the overnight hours into Sunday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 648 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region. Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks, where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s. South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north. This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this episode of convection. While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape - deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts organized. We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning. Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over the nation`s midsection. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 High pressure over the region this morning will remain in control of the areas weather through the day. An approaching storm system will shift surface winds out of the south late tonight and for the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of the regions terminals during the overnight hours into Sunday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Hatch
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area, until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the freezing mark later this morning. Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900 hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20 percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames. Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains. Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon. Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation chances beyond midday Monday. Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the associated trough will likely change several times between now and then. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light east winds will gradually increase and veer to the southeast by mid to late morning, reaching sustained speeds between 12 and 15 kts for the afternoon and evening. High-based stratus will begin to build in while winds veer to the southwest and increase slightly after sunset, signaling the return of moisture to the region. A few showers and perhaps an isolated storm are possible just beyond the end of the TAF period, but most thunderstorm activity will focus south of the TAF sites Sunday and beyond. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area, until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the freezing mark later this morning. Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900 hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20 percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames. Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains. Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon. Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation chances beyond midday Monday. Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the associated trough will likely change several times between now and then. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light east winds will gradually increase and veer to the southeast by mid to late morning, reaching sustained speeds between 12 and 15 kts for the afternoon and evening. High-based stratus will begin to build in while winds veer to the southwest and increase slightly after sunset, signaling the return of moisture to the region. A few showers and perhaps an isolated storm are possible just beyond the end of the TAF period, but most thunderstorm activity will focus south of the TAF sites Sunday and beyond. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 544 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east- southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon, allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM. NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by 12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA. Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday. Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Surface ridge extending from MN south into northern MO will shift southeastward. Light surface winds will become sely this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east of the area, then strengthen tonight as the surface pressure gradient tightens and a swly low level jet moves into the area. There may be LLWS conditions tonight. Little cloud cover is expected today with increasing mid level cloudiness tonight. Showers may move into COU late tonight. Specifics for KSTL: Light surface winds this morning will become sely this afternoon, then strengthen tonight. The surface wind will become sly Sunday morning. Mid level cloudiness will move into the area tonight with the cloud ceiling possibly dropping into the MVFR catagory Sunday morning as showers and a few storms move into the area. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90 Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70 Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80 Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80 Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80 Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 544 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east- southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon, allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM. NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by 12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA. Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday. Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Surface ridge extending from MN south into northern MO will shift southeastward. Light surface winds will become sely this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east of the area, then strengthen tonight as the surface pressure gradient tightens and a swly low level jet moves into the area. There may be LLWS conditions tonight. Little cloud cover is expected today with increasing mid level cloudiness tonight. Showers may move into COU late tonight. Specifics for KSTL: Light surface winds this morning will become sely this afternoon, then strengthen tonight. The surface wind will become sly Sunday morning. Mid level cloudiness will move into the area tonight with the cloud ceiling possibly dropping into the MVFR catagory Sunday morning as showers and a few storms move into the area. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90 Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70 Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80 Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80 Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80 Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface high pressure continues to drift across the region this morning, allowing temperatures to fall efficiently especially along and north of the Missouri River this morning. Several locations in northeast MO have already fallen into the upper 20s, and additional temperature falls are still expected through sunrise. A freeze warning remains in effect for the majority of the forecast area, until diurnal temperature rises bring the region back above the freezing mark later this morning. Very dry conditions will surge in from the southeast at around ~900 hPa this morning, then will mix down this afternoon, further reducing the already quite low dewpoints across the CWA. Warming temperatures aloft, sunshine and southeast winds will also help highs reach the 60s across eastern KS and portions of western MO by late afternoon, resulting in very low RHs in the teens to around 20 percent. Winds will be the only limiting factor for critical fire danger this afternoon and should remain just light enough to avoid Red Flag criteria; however, these very low humidities and dry fuels could result in very easy ignition of wildfires, and extreme caution should be taken with cigarettes, BBQs, and other open flames. Moisture will begin to return this evening and especially overnight as the nocturnal low-level jet positions across the eastern Plains. Winds may actually increase during the late evening and overnight hours due to the LLJ, as will thunderstorm chances after midnight due to isentropic lift/WAA along the jet. Cloud cover and a few showers/storms will continue during the morning hours ahead of an approaching surface low, limiting instability and preventing a substantial capping inversion from mixing out during the afternoon. Cooler air will eventually arrive in the 900-800 hPa layer and help to erode away the cap during the evening hours, allowing another round of showers and storms to develop along a southeastward moving cold front Sunday evening; but lapse rates continue to look mainly unimpressive, and despite strong deep-layer shear, the severe threat should be limited due to the inability of robust storms to develop in the first place. The front will slow as it pushes through the region and will eventually stall in southern Missouri on Monday, but should stay too far south to result in any additional precipitation chances beyond midday Monday. Cooler temperatures are still expected behind Sunday`s system; but model trends have been to push out the upper trough a bit faster and not dig it quite as far southwest, so expect that temperatures will start to recover by midweek and should return to above normal values by Thursday and Friday. Early indications are that the next chance of widespread rainfall will come next weekend, but timing of the associated trough will likely change several times between now and then. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from this afternoon and into the late evening hours. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 343 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in COU. Temperatures will continue to fall as north-northwesterly surface winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves east- southeastward over the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. Surface dew points were quite low for April, only in the teens. The surface ridge/850 mb ridge will shift east of the area this afternoon, allowing the surface/850 mb winds to become southeasterly/southwesterly. With little cloudiness today, along with rising upper level heights, low-mid level warm air advection this afternoon and rising 850 mb temperatures, highs should range from the middle 40s in southwest IL to the middle to upper 50s across parts of central and southeast MO. This is about 10 degrees below normal. GKS .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016 Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the Eastern Seaboard. The resulting low level jet is forecast to increase to around 50kts with some fairly strong warm advection and moisture convergence showing up at 850mb on both the GFS and NAM. NCEP and NSSL WRF models pop up isolated to widely scattered showers over southwest/south central Missouri which move into our area by 12Z. The NAM and GFS likewise spit out a few hundredths of precip...mostly over southern and western portions of the CWFA. Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection on the low level jet which really doesn`t weaken much between 12Z and 18Z. Models print out between 0.1 and 0.25 inch across a wide portion of the CWFA by 18Z, so have bumped PoPs up to likely...generally along and north of I-70 for Sunday morning. The focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the cold front noses into our northwestern counties...and then move southeast along with the front Sunday night into Monday. QPF on the GFS looks more reasonable this morning than it did yesterday with storm totals ranging from about 1 inch to 1.5 inch. This is more in line with the ECMWF although the ECMWF has the axis of heavier precip further north along the I-70 corridor vs over the eastern Ozarks as with the GFS and NAM. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue Monday behind the front...primarily along and south of I-70...and the rain should finally push south and out of the CWFA by 06Z Tuesday. Strong high pressure will build over the Midwest Tuesday and dominate our weather through the end of the week. Temperatures look to be below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of the strong high, but should be moderating to near normal Thursday and even a bit warmer Friday as the wind finally turns back to a more southerly direction allowing warmer air back into the region. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon. They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are expected to hold off until after the valid period. TES && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 52 44 65 49 / 0 20 60 90 Quincy 48 43 62 43 / 0 30 70 70 Columbia 54 47 68 48 / 5 30 50 80 Jefferson City 55 47 68 49 / 5 30 50 80 Salem 47 41 62 50 / 0 20 60 80 Farmington 52 42 67 51 / 0 20 50 70 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 217 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) A chilly airmass was filtering into extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning. Temperatures were generally in the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds blowing over the region. Canadian high pressure will slip east of the Ozarks this morning bringing a return of southerly winds to the west. Temperatures will approach 70 out toward Pittsburg and Joplin. Cooler readings are expected to the east. Particularly in the eastern Ozarks, where temperatures could struggle to warm out of the 50s. South winds really kick in tonight, allowing for a much warmer night. Look for overnight lows to range from the middle 40s out east, to the middle 50s out in Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Much of Sunday should be breezy but quiet. However, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening into Monday morning. A frontal system will approach the region from the north. This feature will interact with Gulf moisture to trigger this episode of convection. While low level cape and low level wind shear type does not suggest tornadoes, there does appear to be a sufficient cape - deep shear combination for organized storms. The NAM 12 is probably over estimating cape values. However, the GFS suggest up to 2,000 j/kg of most unstable cape Sunday evening. Deep shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots will be strong enough to keep updrafts organized. We will become specific with expected severe hazards, and mention large hail up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. We could experience some training thunderstorms, therefore a localized flash flooding risk is present. Flooding is not expected to be widespread at all. But a few locations could see training thunderstorms for a period of time early Monday morning. Storms will exit the region by midnight Tuesday, starting a multi-day period of dry weather. Mild temperatures are also expected Tuesday through Saturday, with highs reaching the 70s by Friday and Saturday. These warm and dry conditions will occur in response to an upper level ridge of high pressure translating over the nation`s midsection. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east. Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low level wind shear develops. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cramer LONG TERM...Cramer AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from this afternoon and into the late evening hours. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions to continue through the fcst cycle. North winds initially will continue to veer to the east and eventually southeast through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts can be expected from this afternoon and into the late evening hours. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east. Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low level wind shear develops. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through Saturday as surface high pressure shifts to the east. Winds will become easterly overnight and southeasterly on Saturday. Cloudiness will increase Saturday evening while low level wind shear develops. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1138 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save some pockets of the STL urban heat island. A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average. TES && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. NW surface winds will continue overnight and into the morning and then veer easterly by early Saturday afternoon. They should become SE and gusty again by Saturday evening as clouds also increase with bases around 7-8kft. Rain chances are expected to hold off until after the valid period. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO- Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL- Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 900 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Forecast on track and few changes made, with clearing skies having occurred already or will be very soon, and winds gradually diminishing. A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save some pockets of the STL urban heat island. A sunny day is on tap for Saturday, but cool, with temperatures making a recovery into the 50s, but still 10 to 15F below average. TES && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE Saturday evening. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 637 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge. Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St. Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 (Saturday) Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley. (Saturday Night - Monday) Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend of the two model camps. (Monday Night - Next Friday) Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a possibility for portions of northeast Missouri. Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid- Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near normal temperatures are expected by next Friday. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period. Strong and gusty NW winds will diminish this evening and go light and variable during Saturday morning before emerging as easterly in the afternoon and strengthen and veer further to SE Saturday evening. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO- Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO- Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially now that the growing season is getting well underway for some orchards, nurseries etc. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front, especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the day may keep instability too low for much severe weather. Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis further north. Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Light northerly winds initially will continue veering to the east overnight before shifting to the southeast after 12z. Speeds will increase after sunrise with sustained winds of 12-16 kts likely through the late morning and afternoon. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057. MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ043-053-054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...00z Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the southeast tomorrow by mid day. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067- 077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079- 089-090-094-095-102>105. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 ...00z Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today, however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface ridge building in. Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm chances from Saturday night into Monday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning. On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day. Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016 Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy will also shift across the area while the front moves through. Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame. Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the 60s and 70s by the end of the week. && .A