Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/08/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
944 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL CREATING SCT DECK OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS WITH A DEEP SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE WEST COMBINED WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. HRRR AND RAP SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH
BRINGING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY HELPING TO REDUCE THE GRADIENT AND
BRING WINDS DOWN BY THIS EVENING. CURRENT RH VALUES ARE STILL HIGH
IN THE 30S AND 40S BUT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS. AREAS OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL BE CLOSE TO
RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH MODELS SHOWING RH VALUES GETTING DOWN TO
12% BY THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CRITERIA IS BORDERLINE OVER A SMALL
AREA WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HILITES FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR IS DRY AND WILL BE
WARMING...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE ENHANCED MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
SHOULD FADE BY SUNRISE. ALSO A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...HUMIDITIES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY BUT WINDS ARE ALSO NOT AS STRONG. NEARING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN THE WINDIER AREAS ESPECIALLY AROUND AKRON...BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH SO WE WILL JUST MENTION AN ELEVATED RISK IN OUR
PRODUCTS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF IN THE WINDIER AREAS THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND IN MOST AREAS TO HOLD THE
TEMPERATURES UP. SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY COULD GET COLD THOUGH.
MODELS HINT AT A THIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER ON THE EDGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NOT SURE IF THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING...MAYBE SOME CLOUDS IN NORTH AND EAST
SECTIONS BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY OROGRAPHIC SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA WITH ALMOST NO
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND
WIND FIELDS ARE STILL SHOWING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY...AND WEAK FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW IT TO BE
PRETTY DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR A BIT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING IS PRETTY DRY
TOO...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MINOR CAPE LATE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-25% POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...
THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C
WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS STILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. THIS TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THEN THERE IS WEAK UPPER RIDGING THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. THERE IS FAIR
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER BATCH OF UPWARD MOTION FOR THE TUESDAY
TROUGH. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT QUITE A
BIT FOR ALL THE LAST THREE DAYS. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WITH
DECENT UPSLOPE BEHIND IT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THESE
PERIODS AND WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. IT NEVER GETS VERY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
BRINGING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY BY 18 TO 19Z BEFORE GOING TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCT DECK IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
811 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO
BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS E MA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH 03Z-04Z...ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF A FINE LINE ACROSS
EASTERN FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES AT 2345Z. COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED THROUGH INTO THE BERKSHIRES...W WINDS
REPORTED AT KAQW AND KPSF.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND EVEN HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS WERE REPORTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT OR LOCAL STORM REPORT LISTINGS FOR DETAILS.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDED...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED RATHER QUICKLY...
THOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UP TO 35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THE
RAIN CONTINUING.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS GENERATED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO
NW MA DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING.
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-
VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
* A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY.
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE
COAST BY MID WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S
FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND...SOME OF THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE IS STARTING TO SIGNAL THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS FURTHER S. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FURTHER S THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE CANADIAN GGEM FURTHEST
S. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS PRECIP AS FAR N AS THE MASS PIKE...AN
OVERALL AVERAGE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N CT/S RI INTO S COASTAL MA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MODELS
ALSO PUSHING THIS LOW OFFSHORE FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF A BIT QUICKER. BEST QPF WILL
OCCUR DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER FROM NEAR THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S
VINEYARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING.
OVERALL QPF EXPECTED TO BE FROM 0.1 INCHES OR LESS FROM NEAR THE
MASS PIKE UP TO PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN...RANGING TO ABOUT 0.25
INCHES FROM AROUND KIJD-KPVD-KEWB...THEN UP CLOSE TO 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND THE ISLANDS.
DID USE WET BULB TEMPS TO HELP DETERMINE TRANSITION OVER TO -SN
BUT JUST NOT QUITE ENOUGH QPF LEFT. WHILE MANY SPOTS MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT/N RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...IF THAT
HAPPENS.
WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET EARLY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO N-NW
WINDS.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT E COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT. PLEASE SEE THE
TIDAL AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE BY SUN MORNING...WITH MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W. NW WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY WILL BACK TO W-SW AND DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 40S..EXCEPT UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH
SE. PRECIP MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY DURING SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AS THE PRECIP COMMENCES...SO WILL
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MIXED
RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE SHORE. THE SNOW WILL START BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E. DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS...THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE...THEN LESS
THAN A INCH ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE THOUGH...WILL SEE THE SNOW CHANGE
QUICKLY OVER TO RAIN FROM S-N BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL
NOT LAST LONG EITHER AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS S-SW WINDS PICK UP. AS THE
FRONT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW...IT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME TIMING ISSUES AT PLAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY...SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING
THERE. AT THIS POINT...MAY SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS DURING TUE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT SO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED...BUT MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. LAST OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY AROUND 03Z.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN
RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT
AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA.
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN
AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND
MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
ALONG THE S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
805 PM UPDATE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W-SW. ROUGH SEAS
WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AHEAD THE WIND SHIFT...
WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...
SO HAVE CONVERTED GALES TO SMALL CRAFTS FOR BOSTON HARBOR...
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS. WINDS ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...SO WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE CONVERSION FROM GALES TO SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START
SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.
TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY
SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME
DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN
FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND
DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO
BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS E MA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH 03Z-04Z...ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF A FINE LINE ACROSS
EASTERN FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES AT 2345Z. COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED THROUGH INTO THE BERKSHIRES...W WINDS
REPORTED AT KAQW AND KPSF.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND EVEN HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS WERE REPORTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT OR LOCAL STORM REPORT LISTINGS FOR DETAILS.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDED...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED RATHER QUICKLY...
THOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND UP TO 35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THE
RAIN CONTINUING.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS GENERATED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO
NW MA DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING.
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-
VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
* A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY.
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE
COAST BY MID WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S
FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND...SOME OF THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE IS STARTING TO SIGNAL THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS FURTHER S. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FURTHER S THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE CANADIAN GGEM FURTHEST
S. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS PRECIP AS FAR N AS THE MASS PIKE...AN
OVERALL AVERAGE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N CT/S RI INTO S COASTAL MA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MODELS
ALSO PUSHING THIS LOW OFFSHORE FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF A BIT QUICKER. BEST QPF WILL
OCCUR DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER FROM NEAR THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S
VINEYARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING.
OVERALL QPF EXPECTED TO BE FROM 0.1 INCHES OR LESS FROM NEAR THE
MASS PIKE UP TO PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN...RANGING TO ABOUT 0.25
INCHES FROM AROUND KIJD-KPVD-KEWB...THEN UP CLOSE TO 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND THE ISLANDS.
DID USE WET BULB TEMPS TO HELP DETERMINE TRANSITION OVER TO -SN
BUT JUST NOT QUITE ENOUGH QPF LEFT. WHILE MANY SPOTS MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT/N RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...IF THAT
HAPPENS.
WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET EARLY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO N-NW
WINDS.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT E COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT. PLEASE SEE THE
TIDAL AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE BY SUN MORNING...WITH MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W. NW WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY WILL BACK TO W-SW AND DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 40S..EXCEPT UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH
SE. PRECIP MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY DURING SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AS THE PRECIP COMMENCES...SO WILL
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MIXED
RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE SHORE. THE SNOW WILL START BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E. DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS...THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE...THEN LESS
THAN A INCH ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE THOUGH...WILL SEE THE SNOW CHANGE
QUICKLY OVER TO RAIN FROM S-N BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL
NOT LAST LONG EITHER AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS S-SW WINDS PICK UP. AS THE
FRONT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW...IT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME TIMING ISSUES AT PLAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY...SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING
THERE. AT THIS POINT...MAY SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS DURING TUE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT SO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED...BUT MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. LAST OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY AROUND 03Z.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN
RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT
AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA.
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN
AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND
MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
ALONG THE S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START
SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.
TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY
SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME
DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN
FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND
DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1033 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS CLOUDS INCREASE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...AND WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DECREASING SUNSHINE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME UPPER 40S
SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE TIMING OF THE WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DETERMINE
HOW MUCH MIXED PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WET BULB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT COULD SEE SOME SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN MIXED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION BUT BASED ON THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. SO...LEAVING FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL MORE NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS ARE AVAILABLE LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STRONGER WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY HELPS TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN ALL AREAS TO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION. SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER IN SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
50S...BUT AROUND 50 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR 60 SOUTHERN
AREAS.
COVERAGE OF RAIN DECREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND
THE COLD FRONT EXIT. RAIN BECOMES JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES OUT OF CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKY AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST 06/00Z MODEL AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH BRINGING WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND TO HIGHLIGHT THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AS H850 AND H925 PROFILES SHOWS ESTABLISHED CAA INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...A BROAD REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BRINGING
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME DO
DIFFER IN TIMING OF WARM FRONT AND LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR EARLY/MID APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST FOLLOWED BY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LEADING TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION. THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND MORE STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO WORK EAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. LATEST LOCAL WEATHER
MODELS SHOWS STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES STARTING
AROUND 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME SNOW MELT
COULD ELIMINATE MUCH OF THE SNOW PACK BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THURSDAY AT 15 MPH OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
SUNDAY.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRING A MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE
REGION WITH A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES OR LESS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MTNS.
JUST SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR APRIL 6TH:
ALBANY NY: 14 DEGREES 1943
GLENS FALLS NY: 13 DEGREES 1995
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 18 DEGREES 1982
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
733 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS FROM PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT KLAL AND KPGD BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WEST WINDS IN THE 6 TO 8 KNOT RANGE THE REST OF TONIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. THE MODIFIED REX BLOCK
CONFIGURATION OVER THE PACIFIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW FULLY EVOLVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
FORCED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW
RAPIDLY EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. THIS
DRYING IS SHOWN WELL IN NWP CROSS SECTION FORECASTS AND SHOULD BE
SAMPLED WELL WITH THE EVENING KTBW RAOB. YET ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DURING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS ENERGY AND THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...ITS PASSAGE WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SET UP A COOL
WEEKEND FOR APRIL AROUND THESE PARTS.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...MOVING SOUTH OF LEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR ALL ZONES
GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR FRIDAY...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MAKES
ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FORECAST OVERALL IS RATHER BENIGN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...GIVING WAY TO A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT.
SREF/NARRE ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
AFTER 09Z OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY LOOKS VERY PLEASANT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND. DECENT DIURNAL MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
12-13C RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEACHES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY EVENING EVERYONE!
MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
RAIN CHANCES ARE NON- EXISTENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING BELOW WITH IT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER AS IS COMMON FOR APRIL.
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST TO SE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS WE WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND HELP INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THIS
SECOND FRONT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35% RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
SPOTS RECEIVE BORDERLINE INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 78 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 83 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 75 59 75 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 58 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 78 62 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SHARP AND RATHER
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHILE FURTHER AMPLIFYING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
FURTHER UPSTREAM THE WEST COAST RESIDES UNDER A REX BLOCK- TYPE
CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING WEST OF THE BAJA
REGION UNDERNEATH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE CURRENT LOOK OF THIS TROUGH NORMALLY
WOULD SEEM CONCERNING FOR OUR AREA AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR
TO BE DIGGING IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
12Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
IN SUCH A WAY TO KEEP THE IMPACTS OF ITS PASSAGE THROUGH OUR
REGION EARLY THURSDAY ON THE LOW SIDE. WITHIN THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH...ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ANALYZED ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIGGING
OF THE TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS SHOWN BY
ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO UNDERGO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEARING/STRETCHING AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING OVERALL SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC FORCING COMBINED
WITH A MEAGER/SHALLOW MOISTURE/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD KEEP
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND LESS ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO RELAX TODAY...BUT APPEARS THE GRADIENT IS FINALLY
TRYING TO RELAX. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR A WEAK SEA-BREEZE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MUCH INLAND PENETRATION IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. STILL...THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW AT THE COAST WILL HELP SET
UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE ALL STILL SHOWING
SOME DEGREE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION BEING SUPPORTED WITHIN THIS LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
MIGRATING INLAND THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN THE MORNING AFD...AND STILL FEELS TRUE NOW...GIVEN
THE LEVEL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB OFF THE MORNING KTBW 12Z
SOUNDING...LACK OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT TO MODIFY THE SOUNDING BEFORE
THIS EVENING...THE TIME OF YEAR...AND NOW THE LATER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SEA-BREEZE...FEEL THAT MANY OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING
THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR THAT
TRANSLATE INLAND AFTER 22/23Z...BUT FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELYBE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THAN WOULD BE ANTICIPATED JUST VIEWING THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT UPDRAFTS
ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE THROUGH A RATHER HOSTILE MID- LEVEL LAYER
FOR DEEP CONVECTION...AND WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH HELP FROM THE
SEA- BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD AS
THE SHORTWAVE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BE
APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST ZONES BY 12Z. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE STARTING TO SHEAR OUT BY THIS
TIME. BUT...AT LEAST A WEAK SWATH OF 700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS STILL SLATED TO SWING THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY. THIS WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUPPORTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES BETWEEN
08-12Z. THIS BAND SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PROGRESSES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO A HIGHER DEGREE OF RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR. EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND AND THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY...AND HAVE ALL AREAS BACK TO
NO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY
DAY EVENT FOR ANY RAINFALL...LEAVING MOST OF THURSDAY WITH RAPIDLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE DESCENDS OVER THE
PENINSULA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LIKELY
RETURNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF I-4 MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING FRONT WILL KEEP THE BEACHES
IN THE 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE TRANSPORT OF "COOLER" MARINE AREA.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED BUT THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT WHICH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES BY ANY MEANS
BUT IT WILL FEEL REFRESHING...TO MOST. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BELOW AVERAGE AREA WIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE WITH APRIL COOL-DOWNS IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SLOWS THE NEXT FRONT DOWN
SOME. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NOT ALL
THAT UNUSUAL SINCE APRIL IS TYPICALLY THE DRIEST MONTH FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT
A CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS FOR
KLAL/KPGD/KRSW/KFMY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ/KLAL AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS OR CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ELEVATED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BAND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MAKE A QUICK
PASSAGE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS AND
FRONT SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST BY MIDDAY...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MAINLY WEST
WIND. SPOTS INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR MAY BRIEFLY SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE GUSTY IN NATURE. THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME
SPOTS TO SEE INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
AND THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN. COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE STATE
ON NORTHERLY WINDS DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS
LIKELY THAT LARGE AREAS OF THE STATE WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 76 64 78 / 60 30 0 0
FMY 65 81 64 83 / 30 20 0 0
GIF 64 80 60 81 / 30 40 0 0
SRQ 67 75 63 78 / 50 40 0 0
BKV 61 76 54 79 / 60 30 0 0
SPG 68 76 65 78 / 60 30 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE MODELS STILL SHOW REMNANT MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WORKING BACK NORTH WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING. THIS MOISTENING ALONG WITH VEERING
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LATE DAY BOUNDARY
GENERATED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO PUSH BACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS EXCEPT OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM
LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. CURRENT POPS IN
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY LOOK GOOD. MORE CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO BE MILD IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.
THU...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE OFFSHORE EARLY AND MOVING AWAY FROM
THE PENINSULA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST.
SOME SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE SO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MOS POPS WERE
BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION IN THE GULF AND PUSHING ONSHORE EARLY THU. A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
FRI...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND FL. DEEP LAYER WINDS
OUT OF THE NW WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE AIRMASS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MENTION OF
RAIN.
SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC) LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SAT WL MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD TOWARD FL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS LOWERING TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MINS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY WILL BEGIN SLOW RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INCREASED COASTAL CLOUDINESS. WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY...TO NEAR CLIMO...THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE. MAY BE
A FEW MARINE/COASTAL SHOWERS SUN/MON...BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
EXTENDED TIME RANGE...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
AREAWIDE BY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MORE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS WITH SOME
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THAT PUSH BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS
OFFSHORE OVER THE GULFSTREAM. VFR WITH A WESTERLY WIND FLOW 10-15
KNOTS LOOKS ON TAP FOR THU.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH
SEAWARD AND CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
BE 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4-6 FEET...SO WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS. WILL EXPIRE THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE THOUGH AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
THU...SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW PRE FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED...MAINLY
10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 3-5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 4-6
FEET OFFSHORE...MAINLY DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL.
FRI...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE FRI MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST SURGE
NEAR 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE REINFORCING DRY COOL FRONT. CAUTION
AND OR ADVISORY HEADLINES LIKELY OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS
LATE FRI.
SAT-SUN...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM NORTH OF THE
STATE TOWARD/OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...LOCAL WINDS WILL
VEER FROM NORTH AROUND 15 KT SAT TO NE 10-15 KT SUN. SEAS 3-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 83 56 80 / 30 20 10 10
MCO 63 84 59 82 / 30 20 10 0
MLB 65 84 57 82 / 30 20 10 0
VRB 63 85 57 82 / 30 20 10 0
LEE 63 81 59 79 / 30 20 10 0
SFB 62 83 60 81 / 30 20 10 0
ORL 64 83 61 81 / 30 20 10 0
FPR 63 85 57 83 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1043 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFYING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SHARP AND RATHER
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS WHILE FURTHER AMPLIFYING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM THE WEST COAST RESIDES UNDER A REX BLOCK-
TYPE CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING WEST OF THE
BAJA REGION UNDERNEATH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE CURRENT LOOK OF THIS TROUGH NORMALLY
WOULD SEEM CONCERNING FOR OUR AREA AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR
TO BE DIGGING IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY TO KEEP THE IMPACTS OF ITS PASSAGE THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY THURSDAY ON THE LOW SIDE. WITHIN THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH...ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ANALYZED ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIGGING
OF THE TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS SHOWN BY
ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO UNDERGO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEARING/STRETCHING AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING OVERALL SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC FORCING COMBINED
WITH A MEAGER/SHALLOW MOISTURE/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD KEEP
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND LESS ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PENINSULA. LATER IN THE DAY THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX ENOUGH TO LIKELY RESULT IN WEAK SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THE
BACKING FLOW AT THE COAST WILL SET UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST
INLAND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z. CONVECTION ALLOWING AND
PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING SOME DEGREE OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION BEING SUPPORTED WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
MIGRATING INLAND THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. TO BE
HONEST...GIVEN THE LEVEL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB OFF THE MORNING
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING...LACK OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT TO MODIFY THE
SOUNDING BEFORE THIS EVENING...AND THE TIME OF YEAR...GOTTA FEEL
THAT MANY OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR THAT TRANSLATE INLAND AFTER 22/23Z...BUT
FEEL THAT ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCT IN NATURE
THAN WOULD BE ANTICIPATED JUST VIEWING THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT UPDRAFTS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TODAY THROUGH
A RATHER HOSTILE MID-LEVEL LAYER FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY
EXITS EASTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD AND BE APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST ZONES BY 12Z. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE STARTING TO SHEAR OUT
BY THIS TIME. BUT...AT LEAST A WEAK SWATH OF 700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS STILL SLATED TO SWING THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY. THIS WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUPPORTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES BETWEEN
08-12Z. THIS BAND SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PROGRESSES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO A HIGHER DEGREE OF RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR. EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND AND THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY...AND HAVE ALL AREAS BACK TO
NO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY
DAY EVENT FOR ANY RAINFALL...LEAVING MOST OF THURSDAY WITH RAPIDLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE DESCENDS OVER THE
PENINSULA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LIKELY
RETURNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF I-4 MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING FRONT WILL KEEP THE BEACHES
IN THE 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE TRANSPORT OF "COOLER" MARINE AREA.
A PLEASANT AND DRY FRIDAY IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BETTER JET DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CIRRUS MAY END
UP ALIGNING TO OUR NORTH...SO COULD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES VERIFYING
FOR FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
SHOULD PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE...OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY PLANNED
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH A LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFTING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
COAST. A LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR
KLAL/KPGD/KRSW/KFMY... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ/KLAL AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS OR CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
ELEVATED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DECREASE BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF BAND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MAKE A QUICK PASSAGE
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 66 79 63 / 30 50 30 0
FMY 84 64 83 63 / 30 30 20 10
GIF 81 63 81 60 / 20 30 30 0
SRQ 81 66 79 63 / 20 40 30 10
BKV 81 59 79 54 / 20 50 20 0
SPG 81 67 78 65 / 20 50 30 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
TODAY...DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT
OR BELOW 0.75 INCHES. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SEAWARD OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BUT MAINTAIN A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE MASS OF STRATOCUMULUS OFFSHORE WILL MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHERN AREAS BUT THE HRRR SIMULATED IR CLOUD PRODUCT
SHOWS MOST STAYING OFFSHORE WITH JUST SOME DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD
FORMATION. THE EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARY INTERACTION SHOULD DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING REMNANT MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WORKING BACK NORTH WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING. THIS MOISTENING ALONG WITH VEERING
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LATE DAY BOUNDARY GENERATED
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TO PUSH BACK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR STORMS EXCEPT OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. CURRENT POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY
LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY. EAST WINDS GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS ALONG COAST AND 20 KNOTS
INLAND. SOME CEILINGS ABOVE FL035 EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. MORE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THAT PUSH BACK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH
SEAWARD AND CAUSE THE BREEZY EAST FLOW TO EASE FOR A TIME TODAY...
BUT BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. SO...
WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY TEETER NEAR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT OPERATION WILL BE POOR...AT BEST. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
531 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CSRA
AROUND 06Z MOVING EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 15Z.
THERE WILL BE STRONG WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A 45-50 KT 850MB
LLJ, ALTHOUGH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE VALUES. STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED...ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE GFS INDICATES
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG, WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM GIVING
VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE CSRA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE CSRA POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO CENTRAL SC. SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RAIN TOTALS NEAR
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN RECENT RUNS.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...HOWEVER 900MB WINDS
AROUND 50 KTS ARE OF CONCERN. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRIGGERED THEN
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER. DCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORT
SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH LATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TRACKING AWAY FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL TAKE
OVER. FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE FIRST WILL BE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND AN
INVERSION DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH FOR FRIDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
THE OTHER CONCERN...THURSDAY IS NOT A CONCERN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
CONCERNS APPEAR ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE WITH THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. IF THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES COULD FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS SO FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TONIGHT. THOUGH A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS COULD
ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER...LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS MAIN
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 07Z-11Z
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LLWS EXPECTED...WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PREDOMINATE/TEMPO SHRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL COME THROUGH THU NT...
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THU NT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
514 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY WILL BE
OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TODAY...THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WILL BE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING WILL OCCUR IN
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CSRA AROUND 06Z
MOVING EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 15Z.
THERE WILL BE STRONG WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A 45-50 KT 850MB
LLJ, ALTHOUGH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE VALUES. STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED...ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE GFS INDICATES
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG, WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM GIVING
VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE CSRA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE CSRA POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO CENTRAL SC. SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RAIN TOTALS NEAR
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN RECENT RUNS.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...HOWEVER 900MB WINDS
AROUND 50 KTS ARE OF CONCERN. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRIGGERED THEN
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER. DCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORT
SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH LATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TRACKING AWAY FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL TAKE
OVER. FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE FIRST WILL BE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND AN
INVERSION DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH FOR FRIDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
THE OTHER CONCERN...THURSDAY IS NOT A CONCERN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
CONCERNS APPEAR ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE WITH THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. IF THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES COULD FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS SO FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TONIGHT. THOUGH A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS COULD
ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER...LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS MAIN
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 07Z-11Z
TIME FRAME. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LLWS EXPECTED...WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK...THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
TO ACCOMPANY THE PREDOMINATE/TEMPO SHRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL COME THROUGH THU NT...
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THU NT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
251 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY WILL BE
OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WILL BE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING WILL OCCUR IN
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CSRA AROUND 06Z
MOVING EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 15Z.
THERE WILL BE STRONG WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A 45-50 KT 850MB
LLJ, ALTHOUGH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE VALUES. STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED...ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE GFS INDICATES
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG, WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM GIVING
VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE CSRA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE CSRA POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO CENTRAL SC. SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RAIN TOTALS NEAR
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN RECENT RUNS.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...HOWEVER 900MB WINDS
AROUND 50 KTS ARE OF CONCERN. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRIGGERED THEN
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER. DCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORT
SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH LATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TRACKING AWAY FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL TAKE
OVER. FEW CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE FIRST WILL BE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND AN
INVERSION DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH FOR FRIDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
THE OTHER CONCERN...THURSDAY IS NOT A CONCERN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
CONCERNS APPEAR ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE WITH THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. IF THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES COULD FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS SO FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING MVFR TONIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER
RIDGE. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASES WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AROUND 03Z AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HAVE KEPT CIGS ON THE LOW SIDE OF VFR AND USED VCSH THROUGH
APPX 06Z DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THE FRONT AND MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE CSRA AROUND 06Z MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
SC AND OUT OF THE FA BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME W/SW BEHIND THE
FRONT GUSTING TO 25 KTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1202 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY WILL BE
OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WILL BE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING WILL OCCUR IN
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CSRA AROUND 06Z
MOVING EAST OF FA BY 15Z.
THERE WILL BE STRONG WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A 45-50 KT 850MB
LLJ, ALTHOUGH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE VALUES. STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED...ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE GFS INDICATES
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG, WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM GIVING
VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE CSRA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE CSRA POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO CENTRAL SC. SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RAIN TOTALS NEAR
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN RECENT RUNS.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...HOWEVER 900MB WINDS
AROUND 50 KTS ARE OF CONCERN. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRIGGERED THEN
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER. DCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG SUPPORT
SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH LATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT LITTLE MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE NORTH SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE LESS MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FRIDAY AND WE FORECASTED A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE GFS MOS INDICATED MORE WIND COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND NAM. WE AVERAGED THE GUIDANCE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING THE COLDEST AIR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITHS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A FROST
ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISPLAY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING MVFR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND MID-DAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE. WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASES WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS SCATTERED
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AROUND 03Z AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HAVE KEPT CIGS ON THE LOW SIDE OF VFR AND USED VCSH THROUGH
APPX 06Z DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THE FRONT AND MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE CSRA AROUND 06Z MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
SC AND OUT OF THE FA BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME W/SW BEHIND THE
FRONT GUSTING TO 25 KTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
313 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...
311 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN PRECIP SHIELD STILL SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST...STILL IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS GREATER ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THIS PRECIP SHIELD EXIT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONGER VORT LOBE. THIS REINFORCING ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE
SCATTERED/SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH BETTER
FOCUSING EXITING ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...OVERALL COVERAGE
OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND DO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO LOW
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WITH
THIS IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION. LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WITH THESE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE. PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN OR EVEN BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME...DONT ANTICIPATE THIS TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTS A RETURN TO RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING P-TYPE FORECASTS. ON FRIDAY...A
STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DRIVING H85 TEMPS FROM AROUND
-7C FRIDAY TO NEAR -15C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTS IN BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER THAT MAY NOT SUPPORT
COMPLETE MELTING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WINTRY PRECIP TYPE
CHANCES. THE UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WITH A WEAK TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL. LES
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HELPS
TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS.
BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...HOWEVER CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING THAT WARM OF
TEMPS...THUS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER BUT
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE PRECIP SHIELD STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE
MORE EAST AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS RAIN...DO THINK
THERE WILL STILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE CONVEYED THAT IN THE
TAF...ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL DURATION. PERSISTENT
FORCING ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THIS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF
THIS PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR...ITS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW
MIX COULD OCCUR. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND THE LOW END
MVFR TO IFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT THESE
CEILINGS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT...AND THEN REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THURSDAY. SURFACE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FAVOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONVEYED THAT WITH
THE ORD TAF. HOWEVER...HAVE MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
AND SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25-30 KT ON THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 AND POSSIBLY 35 KT SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION...THEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY
BREEZE TO AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
258 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over Lake Michigan, with
cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. Widespread
light to moderate rain continues to fall in the vicinity of the
boundary...primarily from just east of I-55 to the Indiana border.
Further west, the precipitation has ended across the Illinois River
Valley. The front will continue to progress eastward into Indiana
over the next few hours, with rain lingering across the far E/SE
KILX CWA through early evening. Meanwhile, an area of showers
beneath the trailing upper-level trough currently over eastern Iowa
will drop southeastward into central Illinois this evening. Based
on latest regional radar mosaic and HRRR forecast, have included low
chance PoPs for showers everywhere this evening, followed by a few
lingering showers across only the N/NE CWA after midnight. Will be
a breezy and cool night, with W/NW winds gusting to between 20 and
25 mph. Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s northwest of
the Illinois River, to the lower 40s south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Active northwest flow to continue a couple more days. Next clipper
system currently in northern Alberta will race southeast into
northern Minnesota by Thursday morning before weakening, while an
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes. The remnants of the
clipper are progged by most of the models to be accompanied by a
cold pocket of -30C air near 500 mb, which will track into west
central Illinois by Thursday afternoon. Have added some isolated
thunder into the southwest CWA forecast for the afternoon due to
this increased instability from the cold pocket. However, general
trend in the forecast was to reduce the overall PoP`s by about 20-
30%, concentrating the higher values over the southwest CWA (near
the clipper remnants) and the far northeast CWA (closer to the upper
trough). Kept isolated showers in between. A few showers will linger
into Thursday night as a surface boundary moves through. Next wave
will drop out of Ontario early Friday and race through the Midwest.
Little change in PoP`s for Friday, mainly concentrating them from
Bloomington to Lawrenceville eastward. With this fast flow, windy
conditions to continue for Thursday and especially Friday, when
gusts near 35 mph are likely.
Hard freeze threat continues to loom for Friday night, as 850 mb
temperatures dip to about -12C, near record lows for this time of
year. There is a bit of concern across the eastern CWA where skies
will be a bit slower to clear, but the strong cold-air advection may
overcome this. Continued with lows generally 25-30 degrees. Lower
30s likely in most areas Saturday night as well, but increasing
southerly flow will keep things a bit warmer across the west after
midnight.
Significant pattern shift on deck early next week as a split upper
flow converges over the central U.S. This will result in
temperatures returning closer to normal. While the longer range
models focus on an upper trough passing through Monday night and
Tuesday, the ECMWF is more prominent with digging it further south,
with temperatures cooler than the GFS. Both models maintain a cold
front moving through the area Sunday night and Monday, and have
increased PoP`s to the likely range (60-70%). With the deeper ECMWF,
it pushes the front fully through the area by Monday evening,
whereas the GFS lingers it and the associated rain about 6-12 hours
longer. Consequently, have kept some likely PoP`s over the southeast
into Monday night, with the remainder of the area drying out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Cold front will progress across central Illinois this afternoon,
accompanied by a band of light to moderate rain and mostly MVFR
ceilings. A pocket of IFR has developed along/ahead of the front
from just east of KPIA to KBMI. As the front moves eastward, the
rain will end and ceilings will rise back into the VFR category at
KPIA by 19z...then further east to KCMI by 22z. Further
upstream...diurnal clouds have developed beneath an approaching
upper trough, with low VFR/MVFR ceilings noted across much of
Iowa. Some of this cloud cover will spill into central Illinois
late this afternoon into the evening, perhaps with a few very
light showers. Have therefore included a period of MVFR ceilings
and VCSH at all terminals accordingly. While NAM forecast
soundings suggest MVFR may persist for the entire night, the HRRR
tends to break the low cloud cover up after dark. Based on diurnal
appearance on satellite imagery, have sided with the HRRR and gone
with VFR ceilings overnight into Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
932 AM CDT
EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM THIS MORNING...WITH
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA OBSERVING
RAIN AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE A STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF
STEADIER RAINFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED MORE
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE MORE INTO
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BY MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE FOCUS WILL BE CENTERED IN THESE LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW FOR
REMAINING AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH THUNDER CHANCES TODAY AS THE LARGE DRIVING FORCE FOR THUNDER
EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS A STRONG LLJ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF TODAY AND COULD SEE
A FEW STRIKES WITH ANY MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
321 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
COVERAGE OF PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO
INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT OF CONTINUED DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS
HAS MAINLY KEPT THE AREAS SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE DRY ALL
NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE MOIST AXIS WAS STILL GOING STRONG ALONG AN
EASTERN IOWA TO FAR NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WISC LINE. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES...RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT WITH AREAS NORTH OF A
MENDOTA TO WAUKEGAN LINE PICKING UP OVER 0.7 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BEING DEPICTED FROM LIGHTNING DATA...AND THE CONTINUED
COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WISC. THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE TWO SFC LOWS UPSTREAM...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A
STRONGER ONE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE. AS
THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TOWARDS NORTHERN IL...WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND PERHAPS EVEN THE CLOUDS...A PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD BRING AFTN TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 50S TO THE CWFA.
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 60 IN A FEW AREAS BEFORE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH TODAY...HOWEVER WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD STILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTN.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TODAY...AS MUCH COOLER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST AND PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH OF -2 TO -6 DEG C AT
850MB OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S AND PERHAPS A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX WITH LGT RAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
321 AM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALLOWS A CONTINUED FEED OF
COOLER AIR AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THUR WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE HURON...AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY ARRIVES OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME A FIXTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THUR/FRI...COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST...WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
BOTH THUR/FRI. WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW
MIXING IN TO THE LGT RAIN. THEN AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO MAINLY RAIN.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY...AS A BROAD SFC RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE SOUTH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KICK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING...AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANIES THE SFC RIDGE FRI NGT...WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE
LARGEST FEATURE WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS A LARGE CANADIAN SFC RIDGE PULLS A THERMAL TROUGH OF
-7 TO -12 DEG C AND KEEPS TEMPS SAT FROM WARMING BEYOND THE UPR 30S
TO LOW 40S. FORTUNATELY ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS A QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION...WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE 500MB TROUGH TO PIVOT EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR SUNDAY BACK TO SEASONAL
CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. UNFORTUNATELY THE BREAK IN
THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ONLY GOING TO BE BRIEF...AS GUIDANCE INDICATES
YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COULD RETURN
AND ALLOW ANOTHER TROUGH TO BRING COOL AIR TO THE GREAT LAKES.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE PRECIP SHIELD STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE
MORE EAST AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS RAIN...DO THINK
THERE WILL STILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE CONVEYED THAT IN THE
TAF...ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL DURATION. PERSISTENT
FORCING ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THIS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF
THIS PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR...ITS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW
MIX COULD OCCUR. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND THE LOW END
MVFR TO IFR RANGE FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT THESE
CEILINGS TO SLIGHTLY LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTENROON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT...AND THEN REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE
BULK OF THURSDAY. SURFACE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FAVOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONVEYED THAT WITH
THE ORD TAF. HOWEVER...HAVE MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
AND SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KT AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
348 AM CDT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY...A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES...WITH
LATEST COASTAL OBS SHOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE LAKE AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE
GRADIENT IS A BIT WEAKER. STILL ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...A WEAKER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
SHOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
ON FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF CANADA...WITH A PERIOD OF BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BRING WINDS UP TO AT LEAST 30
KT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. THE HIGH
WILL OVERSPREAD THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINING A QUICK END TO THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SETTING UP ANOTHER PERIOD OF BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1249 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
15z/10am surface analysis shows cold front pushing into
west-central Illinois, with widespread showers occurring across
all but the far E/SE KILX CWA. Have updated PoPs to better
reflect current trends, with categorical PoPs spreading eastward
across the entire area over the next 2-3 hours. Once the front
passes, rain chances will decrease from west to east during the
afternoon. Have not observed any lightning strikes around the
region this morning: however, with a pocket of cooler air aloft
associated with an upper trough approaching from the west, think
isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Made some
major updates to hourly temps, as readings have generally dropped
into the 40s where rain is falling. Afternoon highs will still
rebound into the middle to upper 50s in most areas, with warmer
lower to middle 60s noted south of I-70 where rain will be slower
to arrive.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Frontal system still west of the area with gusty southerly winds
ahead of it across the CWA. Light showers and isolated thunderstorms
developed ahead of the front in the warm air advection pattern, with
these missing most of the CWA...except in the north and northwest.
Today the front will move through the CWA and am expecting most
showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the
front and effect most of the CWA. Highest pops will be along an area
where a line of showers and storms are expected to develop...based
on HiRes model forecast. Highest pops will also be in the west this
morning and then in the east this afternoon. The 500mb trough and
cold pool will be close behind this front and am expecting
additional scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the west
for the afternoon...behind the main front and pcpn. So will have
continue chance and likely pops in the northwest parts of the CWA
this afternoon. Highest QPF however will be associated with the
front pushing through. High temps will be early this afternoon just
ahead of the front and then begin to decrease slowly in the
afternoon. Winds will remain gusty this morning ahead of the front
and also in association with the line of showers and storms moving
through the area. Speeds should remain below advisory criteria so
believe wind advisory is not necessary. Any winds over 45-50 mph
will likely be associated with the showers/storms and not gradient
winds. Wind speeds will decrease as the front moves through, but
then increase again on the back side of the front when winds become
westerly.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Northwesterly flow establishes itself in the wake of todays precip.
Precip slowly coming to an end from west to east in the overnight
hours as the system pulls out to the NE. Decent cloud cover through
the overnight will keep the temps from dropping too far. However,
the break from the precip is brief as GFS/NAM/ECMWF all persist with
a shortwave rippling through the broad scale trof for Thursday.
Whereas previous synoptic runs had some continuity issues with
placement, the 00z run at least, was a little more together. Chance
pops for Central Illinois for Thursday, and keeping the temps on the
cooler side. Have a feeling that cooling trend will continue in the
next couple of runs if the precip remains in place. Temperatures
continue to cool through the end of the week as several waves of
chilly air dig into the trof over the eastern half of the CONUS,
keeping temperatures a few degrees below normal. Cool temperatures
moving in behind the wave on Thursday could result in a ra/sn mix
overnight and into the morning hours Friday for areas roughly north
of a line from Jacksonville to Paris. No significant accumulations
expected...but cannot rule out the appearance of a few flakes.
Whereas Fri night and Saturday dry out a bit, the temps will be very
chilly with lows Saturday morning in the mid to upper 20s. Saturdays
highs are currently in the mid 40s and trending cooler with 850mb
temps -11 to -12C in the ECMWF, and northerly winds on the east side
of the ridge axis.
Temps begin to warm as high pressures exits to the east and return
flow sets up WAA. However, with the return of the warmer temps,
another series of waves creep into the region. The end of the
weekend and into the first half of next week...the forecast will
remain dominated by chance pops. Towards the end of the forecast pd
out day 7/day 8...a major pattern shift starts to take place as the
long wave pattern shifts and a low digs into the desert SW. The
forecast moving into next week will be challenging.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Cold front will progress across central Illinois this afternoon,
accompanied by a band of light to moderate rain and mostly MVFR
ceilings. A pocket of IFR has developed along/ahead of the front
from just east of KPIA to KBMI. As the front moves eastward, the
rain will end and ceilings will rise back into the VFR category at
KPIA by 19z...then further east to KCMI by 22z. Further
upstream...diurnal clouds have developed beneath an approaching
upper trough, with low VFR/MVFR ceilings noted across much of
Iowa. Some of this cloud cover will spill into central Illinois
late this afternoon into the evening, perhaps with a few very
light showers. Have therefore included a period of MVFR ceilings
and VCSH at all terminals accordingly. While NAM forecast
soundings suggest MVFR may persist for the entire night, the HRRR
tends to break the low cloud cover up after dark. Based on diurnal
appearance on satellite imagery, have sided with the HRRR and gone
with VFR ceilings overnight into Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
629 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST DATA. NOTICED THE NEAR
TERM HOURLY MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25KTS
ACROSS THE AREA A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT NOW ARE AROUND 20 KTS. NOT
SURE WHY THAT HAPPENED SINCE A RUC SOUNDING STILL SHOWS WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS MIXING DOWN. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL OCCUR BEGINNING
BY LATE MORNING AND LASTING INTO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS OF 35-40
MPH WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT WILL CAUSE
ANY FIRES TO QUICKLY BECOME OUT OF CONTROL.
PART OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO DOES MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA...HOWEVER IT IS ONLY HALF OF THE COUNTY. HAVE MENTIONED
THE RISK OF FIRE GROWTH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SOCIAL MEDIA
POST THIS MORNING TO COMMUNICATE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT ANY POPS OTHER THAN NIL POPS. THE WEATHER WILL
BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING
AND THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO BECOMES MARGINAL IN THE LATER 3 HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLING OFF. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO ISSUE A FIRE
HIGHLIGHT FOR ONE COUNTY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 60S TODAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 35 TO 40.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME VERY WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE 850-
925MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA
ENDED UP WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE A SUGGESTION OF THE TROUGH GOING FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE MODEL DATA LAST NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHAT DIRECTION THE TROUGH WILL COME FROM BE IT
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. THE ENTIRE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT
RECEIVING RAINFALL WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE DUE TO WIDE SPREAD LIFT
AND MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AM
BEGINNING TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY RECEIVE
RAINFALL FROM THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY SMALL SCALE
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...ANY SHIFT OF THE MUCH LARGER CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH TO MOVE MORE NORTH OR SOUTH.
THIS WOULD CAUSE PARTS OF THE AREA TO MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL WITH
THE TROUGH SINCE THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY
NARROW...BEING FLANKED BY MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE
RAINFALL WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND IT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMEST THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE LAST FEW NIGHTS THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO ARRIVE EARLIER
WITH EACH MODEL RUN. AM WONDERING IF HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE
TOO WARM GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL DATA
SUPPORTS MID 50S FOR HIGHS MONDAY. ONLY A COUPLE MODELS INDICATE
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH MAY END UP BEING MORE REASONABLE. HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1040 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL PLAGUING THE FAR EAST...BUT OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS ARE FREE OF RAIN THIS HOUR. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WNW
AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BUT OVERALL GRIDS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH LATEST DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SE OUT OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME GRAUPEL. ALSO
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE UPDATED
HWO...ZFP...AND NPW TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. ALSO UPDATED GRIDS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 8 PM
EDT. THE KNOT COUNTY MESONET HAS GUSTED TO 44 MPH AND THE MESONET
ON BLACK MOUNTAIN IN HARLAN COUNTY HAS GUSTED TO 47 MPH. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
FOR TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL. AS SUCH THE FREEZE WARNING IS
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MOST AREAS JUST EXPECTED TO GET TO
NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A
MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. WITH THIS IN MIND
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A COLDER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ON
FRIDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A
POSSIBLE COATING ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK...
THE INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GIVE US CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. SOME OF OUR NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING
DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVING VERY COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES...THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. THAT BEING SAID...THE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME SHOULD BE THE COLDEST PART OF
THE PERIOD BY FAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT. THE WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST ON
SATURDAY...AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AS HIGHS MAY MAX OUT AT AROUND 70...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND HELPS DRAW IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONCE
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED PAST US ON TUESDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
INVADE THE REGION. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO US.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD BE SEEING RAIN.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM WOULD BE PRESENT DURING THE
DAY LIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY...WITH ANY STORMS DYING OFF ONCE THE SUN
GOES DOWN MONDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT OUR
AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE DRY...ALBEIT
COOLER...WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING...MATTER OF FACT SME HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SJS/SYM
OTHERWISE MOST OTHER SITES HAVE SEEN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WANE
WITH SUNSET. OVERALL CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE FOR
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID WILL AT LEAST
ADD VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER UPDATES DEAL WITH
TIMING. ALSO DOES LOOK LIKE GOOD MIXING AND SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR MORE GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>113-118>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
900 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Showers have largely dissipated and moved out of the area as of
02z, aside from along the KY/TN border. There are more isolated
showers moving in from the Saint Louis area that will affect
mainly southern IL thru the rest of the evening. Low temps still
on track and only made minor updates to grids overnight. Last few
runs of HRRR model have painted some showers progressing from
southern IL into portions of west KY and southwest IN during the
overnight and early morning hrs. If this trend continues, may have
to add in slight mention of showers to these areas overnight.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Update to aviation section for 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
So far, the atmosphere has been demonstrating that it is an
efficient vehicle for the transfer of momentum across the WFO PAH
forecast area. The remainder of this afternoon will be no
different, as evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer of
approaching showers will provide negative buoyancy of air parcels
enough to generate enhanced wind gusts in the vicinity of the
rain.
The surface wind gradient will be the greater wind component to
the sensible weather for most of the afternoon versus the downward
transfer of momentum.
With a shortwave currently moving across Missouri, the thermal
profile will be sufficient to produce sharper updrafts for
isolated thunderstorms. The primary impact will be enhanced wind
gusts in or near any thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out
isolated small hail (generally less than 1/2 inch at the largest).
For Friday, the extreme northeast part of the WFO PAH forecast
area (Southeast Illinois counties next to the Wabash, Southwest
Indiana, and the eastern edge of the West Kentucky Pennyrile
Counties) will see some showers and higher wind gusts again. The
remainder of the forecast area should remain dry tomorrow with
lesser winds.
Still looks to be on tap for a Freeze Warning for after midnight
Friday night into early Saturday morning. The best time for
widespread sub-freezing temperatures will range between 2 am and 9
am CDT Saturday. For now, and after collaboration with surrounding
NWS offices, will leave the issuance of a Freeze Warning (both in
coverage area and timing) to the evening or overnight forecaster
team.
A Special Weather Statement has been issued for winds this
afternoon. The temporal coverage, depth of favorable lapse rates,
and maximum winds are more confined that those winds that caused
damage on Wednesday, so anticipate any coverage any winds 45 mph
or greater will extremely isolated at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Approach to the long term will be incorporating persistence, with an
even blend of the EC/GFS and their ensemble solutions. Depictions
vary from Tuesday on with the evolution of the h5 mean pattern and
energy within the quasi split flow. Used a blend of persistence and
ensemble MOS for temps.
Will continue to carry good chance PoPs for showers Sunday, higher
north than south, continuing those chances into Sunday night. This
activity should be driven by mid level weak forcing with low level
southerlies persisting warm sector. Could be a Sunday evening lull
then a second surge in chances across the NW 2/3 of the area with
some thunder possible.
Front still slated to move through Monday while mid level energy
from the west gets drawn into the overall mid tropospheric phasing.
Categorical PoPs for showers and isolated thunder. Will continue the
chances into Monday night with best chances shifting east. Tuesday,
only a limited chance for showers just above the KY/TN border, then
dry Tuesday night.
Low confidence forecast Wednesday and beyond. Some kind of h5 energy
is forecast to move toward the area from the southern Plains, while
at the surface high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes across
the area. The GFS tends to suppress best moisture to our south.
Meanwhile the ECMWF draws moisture and a possible rain chance
farther north. Will keep a token slight/low chance PoP over extreme
southern sections of the CWA as a balance for now. This could go
either way at this point. Certainly not a real impact either way.
The rest of the area will remain dry for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Expect all showers and isold thunderstorms to diminish by 01-02Z.
VFR cigs through the period, if any, as areas of clouds move
through mainly EVV and OWB TAF sites. Wind gusts will be high
again tomorrow with 22-23kts at CGI and PAH with 28-29kts at EVV
and OWB. Isolated showers possible tomorrow mainly around EVV and
OWB sites.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
925 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z KCAR SOUNDING, WE
NOTICE A VERY MOIST SOUNDING FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
700MB, INDICATIVE OF THE HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION. STEADY
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR
MODEL RUN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST MAINE REGION BETWEEN 03Z TO
06Z. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER 06Z THE STEADY RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS. ALSO, WE NOTICE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 915MB WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA, THIS CAN HELP TO BRING DOWN THESE
WINDS AROUND 915 MB BY MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST MAINE COASTLINE.
616 PM UPDATE...LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY, WE SEE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN, THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT THE
STEADIEST RAIN TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH 1-2 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT WARM
TEMPERATURES, WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RIVERS RISING IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE, WITH ICE MOVEMENT POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHERN RIVERS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST MAINE AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
70 KTS WILL MAXIMIZE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THEREFORE,
RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
OVERNIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
DOWNEAST MAINE. AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER
BANGOR REGION INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR
THE CENTRAL PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW ON THE NOSE OF A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE BEING NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
RISES ON AREA RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, AS WELL AS
SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. (PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS). EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO OUR
NORTH.
THE NEXT CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AS
A 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE.
AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER BANGOR REGION INTO
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR.
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SHOWERS. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH A QUICK QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT GRAUPEL AND EVEN A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN
THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL
UNDER AN INCH. THE COLDER AIR WILL SLOW DOWN SNOW MELT IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS CLEARING
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. FURTHER
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHS
CLOSER TO 40F. LATER SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS
WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE
ALLAGASH TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. USING AN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE FOR THE STORM TRACK...THE NET RESULT IS A GLANCING BLOW
FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR EASTPORT AND CALAIS. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
A COOL AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING IN THE CROWN
OF MAINE AND INCREASING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS 40F IN ELLSWORTH AND
MACHIAS. WINDS WILL GUST TOWARDS 30 MPH WITH A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT INTO THE AREA. WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A SECOND LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL. MON MRNG THE WARM FRONT FRONT THE SECOND
LOW MOVES INTO SW MAINE AS THE HIGH RETREAT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
MID DAY MON THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO CNTRL ME...THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM NW ME TO THE OHIO RVR VLLY. MON EVNG THE COLD
FRONT MOVES TO NE ME...EXTENDS SW ALONG DOWNEAST ME INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. FROM MON EVNG TO TUES EVNG THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS...THE SYSTEMS LOW MOVES EAST INTO CNTRL
QUEBEC...WERE IT WILL CO-LOCATE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEEPING
THE AREA IN UNSETTLED WEATHER IN TO WED MRNG. BY WED AFTERNOON THE
LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE MARITIMES...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING THURS
MRNG INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BLOCKING SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA...CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NOT THE SAME BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...THE ECMWF RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WIND GUST BY
FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT
ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
KBGR/KBHB THROUGH 06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM: LIKELY VFR TOWARDS BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTH OF HUL...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS
AND RAIN/SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
FINALLY BECOME VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO
BE VFR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 30 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FEET LATE TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO
SCA LEVELS DURING FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT THAT AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE NEEDED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL SCA WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SUNDAY AS WIND GUSTS REACH 30 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE PISCATAQUIS
RIVER BASIN. SOME RIVERS COULD RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. IN
ADDITION...ICE STILL REMAINS ON SOME OF THE RIVERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE...INCLUDING THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT ALONG WITH
THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO CLOSE COINCIDENCE OF NEW MOON AND MOONS PERIGEE.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS AT APPROXIMATELY
11:38 PM TONIGHT AT BAR HARBOR AND 11:48 PM AT EASTPORT. LARGEST
WAVES AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE.
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A STORM SURGE
OF APPROXIMATELY 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER LEVELS OF 14.0 TO 15.0 FEET RELATIVE TO MLLW. THIS
COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE DEER ISLE CAUSEWAY...
STONINGTON HARBOR...WINTER HARBOR AND IN THE VICINITY OF MACHIAS.
NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 18 FEET AND PERIODS OF 11 TO 12
SECONDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE STORM TIDE. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING RUNUP AND OVERTOPPING AT THE
SEAWALL ROAD...OTTER COVE...SCHOODIC POINT AND ROQUE BLUFFS. THIS
COULD DEPOSIT SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE ROCKS AND SMALL DEBRIS ON
ADJACENT ROADWAYS...LARGE VOLUMES OF WATER WASHING ONTO ROADWAYS
AND EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS IS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TO VEHICLES AND
PEDESTRIANS. EROSION OF BEACHES AND EXPOSED AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO WAVE ACTION.
THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ACTION AND FRESH WATER RUN OFF COULD ALSO
PRODUCE TIDAL FLOODING IN THE BANGOR AREA. WATER LEVEL IN BANGOR
COULD COME CLOSE TO 11.60 FEET AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER DOES
BRIEFLY BRING THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT BANGOR JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA/MJ
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/MCW
MARINE...CB/DUDA/MCW
HYDROLOGY...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
902 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
850 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT
TOWARDS THE MID COAST AND CAPITAL DISTRICTS OF MAINE WHICH WILL
SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OF THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WAS NOTED ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS IS HELPING TO FUEL THE CONVECTIVE LINE NOW SURGING INTO
SOUTHERN NH. AHEAD OF THE LINE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ARE
BREAKING OUT.
THIS LINE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE IN MASSACHUSETT`S BUT
HAS BEEN QUIET THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. STILL WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON
IT WITH STRONG WINDS STILL MIXING TO THE GROUND. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MARCH EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AUGUSTA AND ENVIRONS
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER HEAVY DOWNPOUR IN SOME AREAS AND MAY
BE THE TIPPING POINT FOR SOME RIVERS TO TOP BANKFULL AND REACH
MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NOTCHES WHERE THE MOST RAIN
HAS FALLEN.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE ADVISORY REGION...BUT THERE ARE MANY OUTAGES REPORTED AND
WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. THAT SAID A FEW LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST DID REACH CRITERIA. ANTICIPATE LETTING THE
ADVISORIES/HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE ON TIME.
525 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AT COASTAL AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...COASTAL AND INTERIOR
YORK...AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES. RAP AS WELL AS HRRR INDICATE GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 8 PM. PORTLAND IS CURRENTLY NEARING SUSTAINED 35 MPH. MOST
SITES WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH GUSTS
HOWEVER. MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS IN THE MISO/MESOSCALE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
OVER- SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL
LOOKING FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WHITES. SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING
OFF IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 800 AND
900 PM WITH PRECIP LIFTING OUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
WINDS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PEAK DURING THE THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL BE CONTINUING HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON NORTHERN RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAM SOME OF WHICH WILL APPROACH BANKFULL RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING. THIS WILL NOT BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR
VARIABLE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
LOW PRESSURE MON-TUE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR AS COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS REGION. COOLER BUT DRY END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT. VFR ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH 4 AM. WIDELY SCT STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLY LOW END GALES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM
SURGE THIS EVENING RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, (1158 PM IN PORTLAND HARBOR).
MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE
PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ020>022.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
201 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINTRY WEATHER
WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO SLOW POP INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN PLUS HRRR SUGGESTING SLOWER
PRECIPITATION APPROACH...FELT A DRIER FORECAST WAS PRUDENT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL FOR AROUND
40 KNOT GUSTS AT LEAST IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON MIXING...BUT FELT THREAT WAS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO
THINK ABOUT AN ADVISORY. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT GIVEN THE
MIXING POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL RESUME
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR THE REGION...WITH SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCRS
AND IMPROVING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO SPAWN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY TONIGHT. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO TIMING AND HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TWO PERIODS OF INCLEMENT WINTER WEATHER LOOK TO BE IN STORE DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST IS A POST-FRONTAL
PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
MUCH MORE ROBUST AND COMPACT LOW AND MID-LEVEL SYSTEM THAT
ADVANCES QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHAT MAKES BOTH PERIODS CONCERNING...EVEN AT THIS LATE OF A
DATE...IS THAT THEY TAKE PLACE AT NIGHT. THIS MAKES THEM EACH MORE
LIKELY TO ACCOMMODATE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAN THEY WOULD BE
OTHERWISE.
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND BECOME RELATIVELY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MARGINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE THE
RIDGES...HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...BRIEFLY DEEPENING THE MOISTURE AND LIFTING PROFILE. THIS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THAT BRIEFLY INTERSECTS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. DUE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER CONCERNS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO MUSTER IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER IN THE RIDGES...THE UNSTABLE PROFILE
COMBINED WITH A MORE RECEPTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST A COUPLE INCHES. WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BEING REQUIRED...BECAUSE THIS IS A
STRGON TREND UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...AMOUNTS WERE ONLY
TRENDED TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT WILL
BE FEATURED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
A DRY AND MODERATING DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE ON FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT RATHER COMPACT AND QUICK-
MOVING SYSTEM. THIS DRIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MEAN 850 MB LOW TRACK GENERALLY FROM CANTON TO PITTSBURGH. NAM AND
GFS 850-600 MB DEFORMATION FIELDS REALLY SPIKE ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE TRACK...AND GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LAYER AND
IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...ENHANCED MODEL QPF VALUES IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE SEEM
REASONABLE. EVEN STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER CONCERNS ABOUND DUE TO THE
CALENDAR DATE...SO WHILE BUFKIT SUGGESTIONS OF 12-13:1 RATIOS
EXIST...THE FORECAST WAS BUILT USING MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 7-8:1
OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. THIS YIELDED A SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW
GENERALLY FROM NEW CASTLE TO INDIANA...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN ALL THE THINGS WORKING AGAINST IT. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS EVENTUALITY...AND IT WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
A DIFFERENT REGIME EXISTS IN THE RIDGES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...HOWEVER. WHILE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION MAY YIELD A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW THERE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE THE
DENDRITIC LAYER BELOW 3 KFT. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND A SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE RIDGES. HERE AGAIN BUFKIT RATIOS FAVOR 12-17:1...BUT OUR
FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR THE MOMENT. EVEN STILL...IT
SEEMS THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HERE AGAIN...THIS
AREA WAS ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING SHORTWAVE INITIATES WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF IT. THAT WARMTH WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL WEATHER WITH THAT SYSTEMS
PASSAGE. GIVEN SHORTWAVE TIMING ISSUES AND CONVOLUTED FLOW
PATTERNS...SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LONG TERM FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH
WILL BE COMMON. CEILINGS WILL LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS...WITH IFR POSSIBLE BY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z THURSDAY WITH SPOTTIER SHOWERS.
CL
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
135 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED TO SLOW POP INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN PLUS HRRR SUGGESTING SLOWER
PRECIPITATION APPROACH...FELT A DRIER FORECAST WAS PRUDENT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL FOR AROUND
40 KNOT GUSTS AT LEAST IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON MIXING...BUT FELT THREAT WAS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO
THINK ABOUT AN ADVISORY. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT GIVEN THE
MIXING POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL RESUME
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR THE REGION...WITH SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCRS
AND IMPROVING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO SPAWN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY TONIGHT. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO TIMING AND HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT END RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
REGION AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT RAIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURE UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WHEN AN
UPSTREAM REINFORCING SHORTWAVE INITIATES WARM ADVECTION ON ITS
VAN. THAT WARMTH WILL BE OFFSET BY INCRSD PRECIP CHANCES...AND
FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL WEATHER WITH THAT SYSTEMS PASSAGE. GIVEN
SHORTWAVE TIMING ISSUES AND CONVOLUTED FLOW PATTERNS...SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LONG TERM FORECAST CONSTRUCTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH
WILL BE COMMON. CEILINGS WILL LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS...WITH IFR POSSIBLE BY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z THURSDAY WITH SPOTTIER SHOWERS.
CL
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1126 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW TO
THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL COME IN THEN FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
WILL BE CANCELLING MORE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. WILL LEAVE OSCEOLA...CLARE...MECOSTA AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 200PM. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
THREAT FOR SNOW AND SLEET YET THROUGH 200PM...BEFORE THINGS CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN. THERE IS A BURST OF RAIN COMING OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AT THE PRESENT TIME (1120AM) THAT WILL MAKE A RUN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MI. AS THIS PRECIP MOVES UP INTO THE NORTHEAST FOUR
COUNTIES THERE MAY STILL BE A LOCAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. OUTSIDE
OF THIS AREA...EXPECTING ALL RAIN. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MIDDLE 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL LOWER TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO THE ADVISORY AS IS THIS MORNING AS WE AWAIT
THE MAIN BATCH OF PCPN TO MOVE IN AND START CHANGING P-TYPES.
THERE HAS NOT REALLY BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE SO FAR WITH REGARD TO THE
INCOMING SYSTEM THIS MORNING. WE ARE IN A MONITORING MODE TO SEE
EXACTLY WHERE P-TYPES WILL CHANGE...AND WHAT THEY WILL CHANGE TO.
THE BEST CONFIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE
EXPECTING A BURST OF MAINLY SNOW UNTIL IT CHANGES OVER TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LEAST CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE SRN AND WRN EXTENT OF
THE CHANGE OVER OF P-TYPES TO A WINTRY MIX AS THE ATMOSPHERE WET
BULBS DOWN WITH THE INFLUX OF WIDESPREAD PCPN.
THE POTENTIAL PITFALLS WOULD BE IF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BECOMES MORE
OF AN ISSUE THAN EXPECTED TOWARD THE LANSING AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE A
LITTLE COOLER...AND IF P-TYPES REMAIN MAINLY RAIN ON THE SRN AND WRN
FLANKS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AGAIN...WE WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES IF NEEDED AS WE APPROACH
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ALL AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WITH THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
WE WILL SEE ALL PCPN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WED NIGHT AND THU.
ACCUMS SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE FOR MOST AREAS.
WE WILL SEE THE NEXT CHC OF MAINLY SNOW FOR THE AREA MOVE IN ON FRI
AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND DIVING SE. WE
MAY END UP EAST OF THE BETTER CONCENTRATION OF PCPN CHCS...BUT THE
THREAT FOR SNOW WILL STILL EXIST. THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWFA WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR WILL BE AND WET BULB ZERO HTS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES... FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE/UPR
LOW ROTATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. H8 TEMPS AROUND -15C POUR
INTO THE REGION WITH THIS WAVE AND WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SHOWN TO BE NNW WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY LAKE SNOWS TO THE SHORELINE. CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF SOME
ACCUMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPS FALL
TO NEAR 20.
A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING IMPACTS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS WHICH
PRESENTS ANOTHER THREAT TO THE FRUIT TREES.
ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST QUICKLY INDUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRECIP WHILE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER PRECIP
SHOULD TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS/DEWPTS
RISE IN CONTINUED WAA PATTERN. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS
BACK IN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
MOSTLY VFR STILL ACROSS SW/SC LWR MI THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR LOWERING CIGS LATER
TODAY AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH. WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z... WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE FOR A WHILE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 21Z AND 03Z WHILE THE
SFC LOW IS OVERHEAD.
SOME BRIEF SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
JXN/LAN WHERE SFC DEW PTS ARE STILL ONLY AROUND 20.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
WE WILL BE HOLDING ON TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COMING THROUGH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND SHOULD MAX OUT JUST SHY OF GALE WARNING CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THEN THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD. WE WILL
SEE WINDS AND WAVES THEN RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THU. THIS
MAY REQUIRE EITHER AN EXTENSION...OR ANOTHER HEADLINE TO BE ISSUED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE FALLING... BUT MANY POINTS ARE
STILL ABOVE BANKFULL. AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
MUCH OF THE MUSKEGON BASIN AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
GRAND BASIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE LOWER
MUSKEGON BASIN AND THE GRAND SHOULD BE LIQUID OR AT LEAST QUICKLY
CONVERTED TO LIQUID DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW IN THE
UPPER MUSKEGON BASIN MAY NOT BE SO QUICK TO MELT. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY PROLONG THE AMOUNT OF TIME THE RIVERS SPEND ABOVE
BANKFULL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ039-
040-045-046.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
FORECAST IS OVERALL ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW. SNOW
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO OCNL LIGHTER SNOW BEHIND THIS BAND. HOURLY
RAP/HRRR AND 00Z NAM SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA WED MORNING AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ND REACHES THE WRN LAKES...EVEN THOUGH LOW
WILL BE OPENING UP. SNOW SHOULDN`T BE AS HVY AS WHAT FALLS TONIGHT.
PLUS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. MAYBE ABLE
TO TACK ON 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TO WHAT FALLS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LINGERING UPR
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A MEAN RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG OVER LOWER MI AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/APX
RAOBS ARE BRINGING DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. SLY FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HI AND OFF LK MI...SOME LLVL MSTR
DEPICTED ON THE GRB/APX RAOBS AND LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CWA WITH H85 TEMPS STILL ARND -12C HAVE RESULTED IN
SOME SC OVER THE E HALF. TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUICKLY FM EARLY MRNG
RECORD LOWS AND WELL INTO THE 30S./LO 40S OVER THE WRN CWA UNDER THE
SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES EVEN THOUGH HI
CLDS ARE SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF A POTENT SHRTWV MOVING E THRU
THE NRN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE CAUSED 00Z-12Z HGT FALLS UP TO 150M
IN MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THE SLY FLOW/WAA BTWN THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO
AND THE HI PRES TO THE SE ARE STRENGTHENING...VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED
BLO H65 ON THE 12Z MPX AND INL RAOBS /H7 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 33C AT
INL/ HAS RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN SO FAR. A BAND
OF GENERALLY LGT PCPN IS MOVING THRU NE MN/NW WI AND NEARING FAR WRN
LK SUP.
FCST FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS...SN AMNTS AND GOING
WINTER WX ADVYS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS THE STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/
SFC LO THAT WL MOVE INTO MN OVERNGT TAPS MOISTER AIR TO THE S AND
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/
SHARPENS UNDER INCRSG UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCRS AND OVERSPREAD UPR MI WSW-ENE.
ALTHOUGH THE PCPN MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME RA AT THE ONSET OVER THE
W...WHERE THE PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE ARND 22Z AT IRONWOOD...DUE TO OBSVD
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS CLOSER TO TIME OF PEAK HEATING...
EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC/NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN SN FOR THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE TNGT. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR 3.5 G/KG
SUGGESTS UP TO 3 INCHES OF SN WL FALL DURING THE APPROXIMATELY 6HR
PERIOD OF SHARPEST WAA FORCING...WITH TOTAL SN TNGT UP TO 4-5 INCHES
AS THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/DPVA ARRIVES LATER AND KEEPS THE PCPN GOING
EVEN AFTER THE SHARPER WAA SHIFTS TO THE SE LATE. CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF HINTS AT HEAVIEST PCPN FALLING ACRS MAINLY SW OF A LINE FM
HOUGHTON TO MARQUETTE AND MANISTIQUE. THIS SN WL BE WET AND HEAVY AS
FCST SDNGS SHOW A RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ CENTERED ABOVE 10K FT.
WED... ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PCPN INTENSITY WL BE DIMINISHED
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN WAA FOCUS...PERSISTENT UPR DVGC/
DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
SLIDING TOWARD WI WL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT SN THRU THE MRNG.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV IN THE AFTN AND ARRIVAL OF
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...POPS AND SN INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
FURTHER. THE LINGERING PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AND STEADY OVER
THE NCENTRAL...WHERE CYC NNE FLOW ARND SFC LO SHIFTING INTO LOWER MI
WL MAINTAIN A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DESPITE MARGINAL H85
TEMPS NEAR -6C FOR LK ENHANCEMENT. WITH DIMINISHING PCPN INTENSITY
AND INCRSG SUN ANGLE...THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH RA OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE HI TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST ARPCH 40 UNDER DOWNSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN U.S. WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. 12Z THU. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN
INTO THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRI. NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING IN FOR THU NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE
AREA ON FRI WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN. WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HAD TO DO A LOT OF EDITING FOR THE QPF AND POPS GRIDS AS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS LOOK TO GET HIT WITH A LONG LASTING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FROM THU INTO SAT. BUMPED UP QPF AND POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS A BIT AS
AIRMASS IS COLD AND HAVE FRESH SNOW COVER AT NIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE COLD.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP AND COLD 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR OF -18C TO -21C AND WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 2C...THIS IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH A LARGE LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH ANOTHER
ALBERTA-CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND REMAINS INTO TUE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WET FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
WITH LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TO LOWER MI BY LATE
THIS AFTN...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY TREND DOWN TO LIFR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN
AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NE TO N. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS COULD APPROACH LOW END GALES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE WINDS LOOK TO BE 30 KNOTS OR UNDER FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>003-009>012-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
136 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
FORECAST IS OVERALL ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW. SNOW
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO OCNL LIGHTER SNOW BEHIND THIS BAND. HOURLY
RAP/HRRR AND 00Z NAM SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA WED MORNING AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ND REACHES THE WRN LAKES...EVEN THOUGH LOW
WILL BE OPENING UP. SNOW SHOULDN`T BE AS HVY AS WHAT FALLS TONIGHT.
PLUS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. MAYBE ABLE
TO TACK ON 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TO WHAT FALLS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LINGERING UPR
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A MEAN RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG OVER LOWER MI AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/APX
RAOBS ARE BRINGING DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. SLY FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HI AND OFF LK MI...SOME LLVL MSTR
DEPICTED ON THE GRB/APX RAOBS AND LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CWA WITH H85 TEMPS STILL ARND -12C HAVE RESULTED IN
SOME SC OVER THE E HALF. TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUICKLY FM EARLY MRNG
RECORD LOWS AND WELL INTO THE 30S./LO 40S OVER THE WRN CWA UNDER THE
SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES EVEN THOUGH HI
CLDS ARE SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF A POTENT SHRTWV MOVING E THRU
THE NRN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE CAUSED 00Z-12Z HGT FALLS UP TO 150M
IN MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THE SLY FLOW/WAA BTWN THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO
AND THE HI PRES TO THE SE ARE STRENGTHENING...VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED
BLO H65 ON THE 12Z MPX AND INL RAOBS /H7 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 33C AT
INL/ HAS RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN SO FAR. A BAND
OF GENERALLY LGT PCPN IS MOVING THRU NE MN/NW WI AND NEARING FAR WRN
LK SUP.
FCST FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS...SN AMNTS AND GOING
WINTER WX ADVYS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS THE STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/
SFC LO THAT WL MOVE INTO MN OVERNGT TAPS MOISTER AIR TO THE S AND
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/
SHARPENS UNDER INCRSG UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCRS AND OVERSPREAD UPR MI WSW-ENE.
ALTHOUGH THE PCPN MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME RA AT THE ONSET OVER THE
W...WHERE THE PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE ARND 22Z AT IRONWOOD...DUE TO OBSVD
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS CLOSER TO TIME OF PEAK HEATING...
EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC/NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN SN FOR THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE TNGT. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR 3.5 G/KG
SUGGESTS UP TO 3 INCHES OF SN WL FALL DURING THE APPROXIMATELY 6HR
PERIOD OF SHARPEST WAA FORCING...WITH TOTAL SN TNGT UP TO 4-5 INCHES
AS THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/DPVA ARRIVES LATER AND KEEPS THE PCPN GOING
EVEN AFTER THE SHARPER WAA SHIFTS TO THE SE LATE. CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF HINTS AT HEAVIEST PCPN FALLING ACRS MAINLY SW OF A LINE FM
HOUGHTON TO MARQUETTE AND MANISTIQUE. THIS SN WL BE WET AND HEAVY AS
FCST SDNGS SHOW A RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ CENTERED ABOVE 10K FT.
WED... ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PCPN INTENSITY WL BE DIMINISHED
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN WAA FOCUS...PERSISTENT UPR DVGC/
DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
SLIDING TOWARD WI WL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT SN THRU THE MRNG.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV IN THE AFTN AND ARRIVAL OF
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...POPS AND SN INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
FURTHER. THE LINGERING PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AND STEADY OVER
THE NCENTRAL...WHERE CYC NNE FLOW ARND SFC LO SHIFTING INTO LOWER MI
WL MAINTAIN A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DESPITE MARGINAL H85
TEMPS NEAR -6C FOR LK ENHANCEMENT. WITH DIMINISHING PCPN INTENSITY
AND INCRSG SUN ANGLE...THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH RA OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE HI TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST ARPCH 40 UNDER DOWNSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD.
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE NE
WIND BELTS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S EXITING SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF LATE WED NIGHT AS MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AOB 4KFT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RDGG MOVING IN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WED EVENING FOR MAINLY THE FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MQT AND BARAGA COUNTIES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF
TO FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY FZDZ AS NAM SNDGS SHOW SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
BELOW -10C ISOTHERM. WITH MODELS INDICATING WEAK RDGG MOVING OVER THE
AREA...THU SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW DIURNALLY
AIDED FLURRIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO WHICH MAY BRUSH THE WESTERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY WILL CROSS THE CWA/NORTHERN WI AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE...RISING INVERSIONS...LOWERING
H8 TEMPS...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWY
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT SEVERAL
INCHES OF LES FOR MAINLY THE N TO NE WIND SNOW BELTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS
SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING EXITING EAST FRI EVENING
WITH DEPARTING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE...H8 TEMPS WILL STILL BE LOWERING
TO -18 TO -19C IN PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE INCHES OF FLUFFY LES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR N-NW SNOWBELTS
AS DGZ REMAINS FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LES COMES TO AN END SAT NIGHT AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS BACK SW. MIXED PRECIP FROM WAA
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING ESE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE WEST IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL NEAR -15C. THE COLD AIR AND ASSOC
MIXING/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND
LIGHT LES ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
WITH LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TO LOWER MI BY LATE
THIS AFTN...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY TREND DOWN TO LIFR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN
AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NE TO N. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS COULD APPROACH LOW END GALES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE WINDS LOOK TO BE 30 KNOTS OR UNDER FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004-
005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>003-009>012-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the
northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region.
Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from
northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak
instability and this activity will continue into parts of our
northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into
synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most
of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be
out of our area by 00z.
Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with
humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but
stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses.
Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential
Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1006 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A MINOR TWEAK
WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE
WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS AS COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM MORNING SUN ALLOWS FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT FOR MANY AREAS TODAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THAT
MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER
CANADA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS ACROSS
CUSTER...FALLON AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF POWDER RIVER AND
CARTER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 60S COMMON ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALOFT TODAY OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENTS
MODERATE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS ITS ENERGY DIVES TO FOLLOW THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE TUESDAY WINDS. EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT
SUNSHINE TODAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE MORE MIXING AND GRAB INTO SOME
OF THE MOMENTUM ALOFT FOR GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE NORTHWEST WINDS DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE 60S. A FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES BUT IT
WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING.
THURSDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA BUT THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA ALBEIT WEAKER.
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN MONTANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE AIRMASS TO BE MORE STABLE WHICH WILL
DRAMATICALLY DECREASE WINDS BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. OTHERWISE THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS WERE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. THE RIDGE
GETS FLATTENED DOWN SATURDAY BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. FRIDAY WILL BE MILD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE BUT
SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER AS MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S AND APPROACH 80 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING ENERGY DOWN IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR DEEPER INTO WYOMING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PROVIDE A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO THE GFS ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES
MUCH FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. DID RAISE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY HOWEVER...AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THE GFS WAS HEAVIER
ON QPF WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING.
INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS TAKING SHAPE ON THE EXTENDED RUNS NOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DEVELOPING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SET UP STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT UNFOLDING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. VERY EARLY
ON THOUGH...SO WILL MONITOR IT OVER TIME. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 40KTS TODAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AT ALL THE OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...BUT EXPECT
TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 35KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 042/066 039/071 044/077 043/056 035/057 037/064
0/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 34/W 21/B 11/B
LVM 064 036/069 035/071 041/073 040/054 032/057 035/062
0/N 00/U 00/U 02/W 44/W 21/B 12/W
HDN 070 040/067 035/072 041/078 043/057 033/058 036/065
0/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 33/W 21/B 11/B
MLS 066 039/061 035/067 040/076 042/056 031/056 033/062
2/W 10/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/U 11/U
4BQ 066 038/060 033/067 039/076 041/056 032/056 034/064
1/N 10/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/U 11/U
BHK 061 034/056 029/059 034/070 039/054 029/052 030/059
2/W 20/N 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/U 11/U
SHR 065 038/061 033/068 036/073 041/054 031/054 032/061
0/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 33/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1251 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
WINDS ALOFT HAVE SUBSIDED WITH 40KT AT 2000FT AGL IN THE KLBF
SOUNDING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...65KT TO 75KT 3000-4000 FT 800-850MB WINDS ARE
INDICATED ON THE KLNX VWP AND THE RAP MODEL DEVELOPS THESE WINDS
SOUTH THROUGH CUSTER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING HEIGHTS IN
THE SAME MODEL DECREASE SUGGESTING LESS POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. CEILINGS RANGE FROM 2500 TO 5000 FT SUPPORTING
VERTICAL MIXING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CAN CONTINUE IN PLACE UNTIL
THESE WINDS EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SUPPORTED BY THE RAP
MODEL AND 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN WHERE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM
MID MORNING ONWARD.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG WITH 500M AGL WINDS IN THE RAP MODEL
OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC. GUSTS TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE
MORNING ONWARD.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND WINDS SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MORNING
SENDING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE MIXING AND LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MID RANGE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALOFT... A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THURSDAY... THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
FGEN FORCING OVER THE AREA... BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT SEEM
TO BE LACKING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM 650-800HPA AND WEAK LIFT DURING THE MORNING... SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLES BEFORE 18Z.
OVERALL... CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AND LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE MIXING UP TO
700HPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER LEADING TO
MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MIXED LAYER... A GOOD PORTION OF THE ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE SURFACE. NAM... GFS... AND EURO ALL HAVE H85 WINDS AROUND 35KTS.
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA IS ALSO IN THE HEART OF THE TRANSITION ZONE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE... AND THE 130+KT H3 JET IS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURE WISE... NO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE AND
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE GUIDANCE...
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DEFINITELY HEIGHTENED AS RH VALUES APPROACH 20 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS REACH 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE RH MAY NOT BE
CRITICAL... WIND WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT FIRE HEADLINES.
FRIDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORK EAST. COULD STILL BE LOOKING AT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... BUT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP LIMIT WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK WAA AND A LARGE GRADIENT IN
H85 TEMPS WITH 13C IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB TO AROUND
1C AT KONL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO MAX TEMPS AS
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SW TO
MID/UPPER 50S NORTH CENTRAL. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH RH
AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LONG RANGE...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. FLATTENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ALONG HUDSON BAY.
THIS PATTERN PLACES WESTERN NEBRASKA IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR CONDITIONS... HIGHS SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID/UPPER 60S WEST OF A
KBBW-KANW LINE. ECM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING VERSUS EVENING. THIS
TIMING DIFFERENCE COULD PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY... BUT WARMER HIGHS APPEAR EAST OF HWY 83 NONETHELESS. KEPT
CHC POPS LATE SUN AND EARLY MON DUE TO DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING. DIFFERENCES REMAIN TUESDAY WITH THE EURO
SHOWING A DEEPER H5 LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN STREAM LYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES INSTEAD OF CANADA AS IN THE GFS. THE TWO
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
TO 35KTS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
BOTH HRRR MODELS AND THE RAP MODEL SHOW RH NEAR 20
PERCENT ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THESE MODELS VERIFIED WELL
TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN THIS AREA GUSTING TO 40
MPH. THIS IS BELOW THE RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT THE STRONG WINDS MAKE
THE SITUATION VERY RISKY FOR LONG TRACK RANGE FIRES. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SWRN NEB TODAY.
ONE FIRE BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR PAXTON WHERE LIGHT WINDS WERE
OBSERVED. HUMIDITY IS INCREASING WITH VALUES OF 40 TO 70 PERCENT AT
3 AM CDT. HIGHEST VALUES ARE IN THE COOLER AIR ACROSS NCNTL NEB WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40F. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL BE CANCELLED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
WINDS ALOFT HAVE SUBSIDED WITH 40KT AT 2000FT AGL IN THE KLBF
SOUNDING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...65KT TO 75KT 3000-4000 FT 800-850MB WINDS ARE
INDICATED ON THE KLNX VWP AND THE RAP MODEL DEVELOPS THESE WINDS
SOUTH THROUGH CUSTER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING HEIGHTS IN
THE SAME MODEL DECREASE SUGGESTING LESS POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. CEILINGS RANGE FROM 2500 TO 5000 FT SUPPORTING
VERTICAL MIXING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CAN CONTINUE IN PLACE UNTIL
THESE WINDS EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SUPPORTED BY THE RAP
MODEL AND 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN WHERE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM
MID MORNING ONWARD.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG WITH 500M AGL WINDS IN THE RAP MODEL
OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC. GUSTS TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE
MORNING ONWARD.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND WINDS SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MORNING
SENDING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE MIXING AND LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MID RANGE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALOFT... A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THURSDAY... THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
FGEN FORCING OVER THE AREA... BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT SEEM
TO BE LACKING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM 650-800HPA AND WEAK LIFT DURING THE MORNING... SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLES BEFORE 18Z.
OVERALL... CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AND LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE MIXING UP TO
700HPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER LEADING TO
MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MIXED LAYER... A GOOD PORTION OF THE ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE SURFACE. NAM... GFS... AND EURO ALL HAVE H85 WINDS AROUND 35KTS.
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA IS ALSO IN THE HEART OF THE TRANSITION ZONE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE... AND THE 130+KT H3 JET IS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURE WISE... NO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE AND
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE GUIDANCE...
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DEFINITELY HEIGHTENED AS RH VALUES APPROACH 20 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS REACH 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE RH MAY NOT BE
CRITICAL... WIND WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT FIRE HEADLINES.
FRIDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORK EAST. COULD STILL BE LOOKING AT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... BUT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP LIMIT WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK WAA AND A LARGE GRADIENT IN
H85 TEMPS WITH 13C IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB TO AROUND
1C AT KONL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO MAX TEMPS AS
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SW TO
MID/UPPER 50S NORTH CENTRAL. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH RH
AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LONG RANGE...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. FLATTENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ALONG HUDSON BAY.
THIS PATTERN PLACES WESTERN NEBRASKA IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR CONDITIONS... HIGHS SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID/UPPER 60S WEST OF A
KBBW-KANW LINE. ECM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING VERSUS EVENING. THIS
TIMING DIFFERENCE COULD PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY... BUT WARMER HIGHS APPEAR EAST OF HWY 83 NONETHELESS. KEPT
CHC POPS LATE SUN AND EARLY MON DUE TO DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING. DIFFERENCES REMAIN TUESDAY WITH THE EURO
SHOWING A DEEPER H5 LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN STREAM LYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES INSTEAD OF CANADA AS IN THE GFS. THE TWO
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING 32025G40KT. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. A DECK OF MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS AOA OVC090-120 ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
BOTH HRRR MODELS AND THE RAP MODEL SHOW RH NEAR 20
PERCENT ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THESE MODELS VERIFIED WELL
TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN THIS AREA GUSTING TO 40
MPH. THIS IS BELOW THE RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT THE STRONG WINDS MAKE
THE SITUATION VERY RISKY FOR LONG TRACK RANGE FIRES. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SWRN NEB TODAY.
ONE FIRE BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR PAXTON WHERE LIGHT WINDS WERE
OBSERVED. HUMIDITY IS INCREASING WITH VALUES OF 40 TO 70 PERCENT AT
3 AM CDT. HIGHEST VALUES ARE IN THE COOLER AIR ACROSS NCNTL NEB WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40F. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL BE CANCELLED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...65KT TO 75KT 3000-4000 FT 800-850MB WINDS ARE
INDICATED ON THE KLNX VWP AND THE RAP MODEL DEVELOPS THESE WINDS
SOUTH THROUGH CUSTER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING HEIGHTS IN
THE SAME MODEL DECREASE SUGGESTING LESS POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. CEILINGS RANGE FROM 2500 TO 5000 FT SUPPORTING
VERTICAL MIXING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CAN CONTINUE IN PLACE UNTIL
THESE WINDS EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SUPPORTED BY THE RAP
MODEL AND 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION. THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN WHERE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM
MID MORNING ONWARD.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG WITH 500M AGL WINDS IN THE RAP MODEL
OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC. GUSTS TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE
MORNING ONWARD.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND WINDS SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MORNING
SENDING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE MIXING AND LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MID RANGE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALOFT... A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THURSDAY... THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
FGEN FORCING OVER THE AREA... BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT SEEM
TO BE LACKING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM 650-800HPA AND WEAK LIFT DURING THE MORNING... SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLES BEFORE 18Z.
OVERALL... CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AND LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE MIXING UP TO
700HPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER LEADING TO
MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MIXED LAYER... A GOOD PORTION OF THE ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE SURFACE. NAM... GFS... AND EURO ALL HAVE H85 WINDS AROUND 35KTS.
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA IS ALSO IN THE HEART OF THE TRANSITION ZONE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE... AND THE 130+KT H3 JET IS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURE WISE... NO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE AND
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE GUIDANCE...
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
DEFINITELY HEIGHTENED AS RH VALUES APPROACH 20 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS REACH 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE RH MAY NOT BE
CRITICAL... WIND WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT FIRE HEADLINES.
FRIDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORK EAST. COULD STILL BE LOOKING AT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... BUT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP LIMIT WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WEST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK WAA AND A LARGE GRADIENT IN
H85 TEMPS WITH 13C IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEB TO AROUND
1C AT KONL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO MAX TEMPS AS
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SW TO
MID/UPPER 50S NORTH CENTRAL. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH RH
AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LONG RANGE...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. FLATTENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ALONG HUDSON BAY.
THIS PATTERN PLACES WESTERN NEBRASKA IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR CONDITIONS... HIGHS SHOULD
EASILY REACH THE 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID/UPPER 60S WEST OF A
KBBW-KANW LINE. ECM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING VERSUS EVENING. THIS
TIMING DIFFERENCE COULD PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY... BUT WARMER HIGHS APPEAR EAST OF HWY 83 NONETHELESS. KEPT
CHC POPS LATE SUN AND EARLY MON DUE TO DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING. DIFFERENCES REMAIN TUESDAY WITH THE EURO
SHOWING A DEEPER H5 LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN STREAM LYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES INSTEAD OF CANADA AS IN THE GFS. THE TWO
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS...WITH
GUSTS APPG 40 KTS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET WEDS
EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY WEDS
EVENING. SOME BROKEN CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
BOTH HRRR MODELS AND THE RAP MODEL SHOW RH NEAR 20
PERCENT ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THESE MODELS VERIFIED WELL
TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN THIS AREA GUSTING TO 40
MPH. THIS IS BELOW THE RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT THE STRONG WINDS MAKE
THE SITUATION VERY RISKY FOR LONG TRACK RANGE FIRES. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SWRN NEB TODAY.
ONE FIRE BEGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR PAXTON WHERE LIGHT WINDS WERE
OBSERVED. HUMIDITY IS INCREASING WITH VALUES OF 40 TO 70 PERCENT AT
3 AM CDT. HIGHEST VALUES ARE IN THE COOLER AIR ACROSS NCNTL NEB WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40F. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL BE CANCELLED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ210-219.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ005-006-008-009-023>026-035>037-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES
TO END THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
EACH DAY. AND AFTER INITIAL BOUT WITH PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW CHANCES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NORTH/SOUTH FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING WHILE INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AS
COOLER SURFACE AIR INVADES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL
DATA SUGGEST FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 80 BY 00Z. MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS PER SPC DAY1
OUTLOOK. APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVERSPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL GIVEN 50KT
OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER IS A MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS SOUNDINGS
HAVE THAT CLASSIC LOADED GUN LOOK DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AS JET
SEGMENT/VORT MAX OVERRIDES COOLER SURFACE AIR. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
EAST IN DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. COOLER NORTHWEST
WINDS FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AND THOSE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 850
WINDS OF 45 OT 55KT AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
SOUNDING SUGGEST EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PUSH SURFACE WINDS
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 50 POSSIBLE IN OUR
NORTH.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUITE A BIT LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO
IS FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH EACH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRECLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. THE BEST CHANCE BEYOND THIS EVENING WILL
BE WEDNESDAY WHEN COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME COULD
TRIGGER A SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...EACH
DAY...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
A SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD. DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS DAMPENED RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY FLOW
PATTERN FOR US...BUT GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
COULD FIRE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POINTS AT
EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW SETTLES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THEN...AND COOLER 50S OR 60S TO START
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING PERIOD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
12Z AS CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND TIGHTER GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE REGION. EVEN STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AS STRONG JET AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
CLOSE TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE REGION
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 5H TROUGH/COLD FRONT
WILL BE LIMITED. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIKELY
EXCEED 20 MPH CLOSE TO DAYBREAK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE IN THE PERIOD...JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WHEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT BUT THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE.
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S WITH
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ALONG THE SC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY
THU BUT COLD ADVECTION IS INITIALLY LIMITED. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HELPS DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT...CLEARING OUT SKIES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT STARTING LATE THU NIGHT COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...THE BEGINNINGS OF A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.
MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND FROM TIME
TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE OF
THE STRONGER WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
AHEAD OF THE WAVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. ONCE AGAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A NON-ZERO POP BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET. WHILE
IT IS TRUE STRONG WAVES TEND TO PRODUCE PRECIP WHEN IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AND THE CORE OF THE
WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. THE SECOND WAVE WILL HELP DRAG AN
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING A
DRY COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
W-NW FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NW-N THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL
A DEEP FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR MASS WILL
COME FROM WELL INTO NORTHWEST CANADA PULLING DOWN A BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AND
DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT OVER FORECAST AREA LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN GUSTY NW-N WINDS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TO HOW LOW THE
TEMPS WILL GET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE 850 TEMPS HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY WITH LOWEST READINGS AROUND -4-5C INSTEAD OF -8C.
THERE SHOULD BE PLACES THAT REACH BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR CROPS OR PLANTS MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AND THEREFORE REMAIN ALERT FOR UPDATES OF POSSIBLE
FREEZE.
CAA WILL CUT OFF COME SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS COULD AFFECT EITHER SAT NIGHT
LOW OR SUN NIGHT LOW AS ANY DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT NIGHT
WILL PRODUCE LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERALL WOULD THINK THIS WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON SUN NIGHT TEMPS BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
BRING CENTER OVERHEAD SUN AFTN AND THEN A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN MOISTURE
RETURN AND A RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN
NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSER TO 40 SUN NIGHT.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT NEAR 60 FOR SATURDAY AND THEN NEAR 70 BY MONDAY UNDER BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THOUGH. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUES
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE TUES. TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE BACK UP
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEDGE SETTING UP
FOR MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND PCP POST
FROPA ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF
A WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. BUILDING SEAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A RESULT OF INCREASING WIND SPEED...EXCEED 6 FT AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND TOP OUT AT 8 FT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SCA ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THU AND POSSIBLY PART OF THU NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY THU BUT WINDS ARE
SLOW TO VEER TO WESTERLY. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
APPROACH 30 KT SUSTAINED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS REMAIN
20 TO 25 KT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO PINCHED GRADIENT.
WESTERLY FLOW DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THU NIGHT AND GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX. THIS ALLOWS FOR SEAS DROPPING UNDER 6 FT...ACROSS
SC WATERS FIRST AND THEN ACROSS NC WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA HEADLINE FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH 25 KT. OFFSHORE WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT DESPITE
SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE UP AROUND SCA THRESHOLDS
EARLY SATURDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH A
STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW. STRONG NW-N FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL MIXED UNDER
STRONG CAA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT CLOSER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO RELAX. EXPECT WIND TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY
SUN AFTN WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS. BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE TO S AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS. BY
MON NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP PACE REACHING UP TO 10 TO
15 KTS PUSHING SEAS BACK UP A FT OR TWO LEAVING MOST SEAS IN THE 2
T 4 FT RANGE BY TUES MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
149 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS CENTRAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND OF
SNOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...BLENDED THEREAFTER TO THE
15-17 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES. THESE SUITES PROPAGATE THE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH DIURNAL CELLULAR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BAND. THE 16-17 UTC RAP CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE BY THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
11-12 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 200-400 J/KG
OF ML CAPE BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE 06-12 UTC
HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES ALL DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA...AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE BY
DOWNDRAFTS. ALSO...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREAS TO MIX WITH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THESE AREAS MAY SUPPORT SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 15 UTC IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITIES OF 7-10SM ARE BEING REPORTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES AS OF 1145 UTC. THIS UPDATE
DID NOT REQUIRE ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES...THOUGH WE DID USE
THE 08-10 UTC HRRR AND RAP SOLUTIONS TO REFINE HOURLY POPS TODAY.
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY A
BIT FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERED IN A LATER UPDATE
IF THE RECENT RAPID-REFRESH SUITE STAYS CONSISTENT WITH THAT IDEA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 45-50 MPH. THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUSTAINED/GUSTS
IS MORE FAVORED IN BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. DESPITE THESE
STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO THE
BREVITY OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 35 PERCENT AND
ADDITIONAL SHADING DUE TO MORE CLOUDS TODAY. WITH TUESDAYS LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT
DRYING WILL NOT OCCUR WITH TODAYS WEATHER ELEMENTS AND THUS NOT
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SPREAD LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN DWINDLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST REMAINING DRY TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIPIATION WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THE CLIPPER SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THURSDAY...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FORESEEN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY SUSTAINED AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH WILL PROMPT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS RELAX ON FRIDAY AS
THEY TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
SUNDAY. THE FRONT OVERALL WILL COME THROUGH DRY...SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUTTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS/KBIS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KTS
ALSO DEVELOPING AT THESE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
843 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
11-12 UTC RAP AND 06 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 200-400 J/KG
OF ML CAPE BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE 06-12 UTC
HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES ALL DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA...AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE BY
DOWNDRAFTS. ALSO...ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREAS TO MIX WITH RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THESE AREAS MAY SUPPORT SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 15 UTC IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITIES OF 7-10SM ARE BEING REPORTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES AS OF 1145 UTC. THIS UPDATE
DID NOT REQUIRE ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES...THOUGH WE DID USE
THE 08-10 UTC HRRR AND RAP SOLUTIONS TO REFINE HOURLY POPS TODAY.
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY A
BIT FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERED IN A LATER UPDATE
IF THE RECENT RAPID-REFRESH SUITE STAYS CONSISTENT WITH THAT IDEA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 45-50 MPH. THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUSTAINED/GUSTS
IS MORE FAVORED IN BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. DESPITE THESE
STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO THE
BREVITY OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 35 PERCENT AND
ADDITIONAL SHADING DUE TO MORE CLOUDS TODAY. WITH TUESDAYS LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT
DRYING WILL NOT OCCUR WITH TODAYS WEATHER ELEMENTS AND THUS NOT
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SPREAD LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN DWINDLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST REMAINING DRY TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIPIATION WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THE CLIPPER SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THURSDAY...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FORESEEN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY SUSTAINED AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH WILL PROMPT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS RELAX ON FRIDAY AS
THEY TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
SUNDAY. THE FRONT OVERALL WILL COME THROUGH DRY...SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUTTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AND SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-
031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
647 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 15 UTC IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITIES OF 7-10SM ARE BEING REPORTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK RADAR ECHOES AS OF 1145 UTC. THIS UPDATE
DID NOT REQUIRE ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES...THOUGH WE DID USE
THE 08-10 UTC HRRR AND RAP SOLUTIONS TO REFINE HOURLY POPS TODAY.
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY A
BIT FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERED IN A LATER UPDATE
IF THE RECENT RAPID-REFRESH SUITE STAYS CONSISTENT WITH THAT IDEA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 45-50 MPH. THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUSTAINED/GUSTS
IS MORE FAVORED IN BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. DESPITE THESE
STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO THE
BREVITY OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 35 PERCENT AND
ADDITIONAL SHADING DUE TO MORE CLOUDS TODAY. WITH TUESDAYS LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT
DRYING WILL NOT OCCUR WITH TODAYS WEATHER ELEMENTS AND THUS NOT
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SPREAD LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN DWINDLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST REMAINING DRY TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIPIATION WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THE CLIPPER SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THURSDAY...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FORESEEN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY SUSTAINED AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH WILL PROMPT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS RELAX ON FRIDAY AS
THEY TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD TRANSITORY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
SUNDAY. THE FRONT OVERALL WILL COME THROUGH DRY...SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUTTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
MVFR TO IFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT -RA/MVFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS 17Z-22Z WITH A
VCSH AT KISN AND KBIS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT KISN/KDIK WILL
EMERGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SUSTAINED AROUND 30KT
AND GUSTS TO 40KT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-
031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
207 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WITH COOL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MAXIMUM IN DOWNDRAFT
CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS. AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE INCAPABLE OF ELECTRIFICATION...EVEN IF EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION.
POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE GOING INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL NOT
GOING TO BE EASY...GIVEN THAT THIS IS MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH WEAKER
MID/UPPER FORCING INSTEAD OF WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES. THE
END RESULT WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN (OR POSSIBLY SNOW)
SHOWERS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME SCATTERED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE AGAIN.
MODELS HAVE ALSO AGREED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY PERIOD LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE ILN CWA BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM ILLINOIS TO
KENTUCKY. EVENTUALLY...THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER ON FRIDAY...FORCING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HOW LONG THIS PRECIPITATION LASTS ON
FRIDAY MAY BE DEPENDENT ON IF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF (AND SHOWN
MORE EXPLICITLY ON THE 00Z NAM). IF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IT WILL TURN TO SNOW...AND SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL POSSIBLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL VERY EASILY DO SO ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS SIGNALED FOR SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT. LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING TO THE WEST...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG
A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL. KEEPING IN MIND THAT
NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S FRIDAY WILL PLUNGE TO THE 30S SATURDAY UNDER COLD ADVECTION.
WARMER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ON THE WAY THEREAFTER...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S ON MONDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO THE 50S TUESDAY IN
MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WILL OCCUR EVEN AS
SHOWERS DEVELOP AND START TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. INITIALLY WITH
PRECIPITATION...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO MVFR. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z FROM KCVG/KLUK TOWARDS
KILN...BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT
SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. WIND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DRY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO CRITICAL
LEVELS. IN ADDITION THERE ARE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS. IN
COORDINATION WITH OHIO DNR...HAVE PUT OUT A SHORT-FUSED RED FLAG
WARNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>064-070>072-077>080.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ073-074-
082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>098.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WITH COOL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE SKIRTING WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS
MORNING. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AFTER
THIS MOVES BY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS,
IT APPEARS THAT EVAPORATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE
BEEN INDICATING A FEW HOURS OF WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 KT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE INCAPABLE OF ELECTRIFICATION...EVEN IF EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION.
POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE GOING INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL NOT
GOING TO BE EASY...GIVEN THAT THIS IS MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH WEAKER
MID/UPPER FORCING INSTEAD OF WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES. THE
END RESULT WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN (OR POSSIBLY SNOW)
SHOWERS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME SCATTERED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE AGAIN.
MODELS HAVE ALSO AGREED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY PERIOD LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE ILN CWA BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM ILLINOIS TO
KENTUCKY. EVENTUALLY...THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER ON FRIDAY...FORCING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HOW LONG THIS PRECIPITATION LASTS ON
FRIDAY MAY BE DEPENDENT ON IF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF (AND SHOWN
MORE EXPLICITLY ON THE 00Z NAM). IF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IT WILL TURN TO SNOW...AND SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL POSSIBLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL VERY EASILY DO SO ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS SIGNALED FOR SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT. LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING TO THE WEST...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG
A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL. KEEPING IN MIND THAT
NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S FRIDAY WILL PLUNGE TO THE 30S SATURDAY UNDER COLD ADVECTION.
WARMER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ON THE WAY THEREAFTER...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S ON MONDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO THE 50S TUESDAY IN
MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. VFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MID CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY WAA INDUCED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY MID AFTERNOON. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WINDS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PIVOT EAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DAYTIME MIXING...WILL BRING DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH WIND
GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 32 AND 38 KNOTS DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OR STRONGEST WINDS AT 2000 FEET WILL BE AT THE
KDAY TERMINAL. HAVE THIS GOING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND 21Z.
FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR...BUT THE
RISK IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE IN THE WAKE OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE A TRAILING
SURFACE MAY BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 FOOT RANGE BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY INTO
THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>064-070>072-077>080.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>098.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.AVIATION...
TAFS 0618/0718...
STRONG...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING...THE WIND WILL DECREASE AND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH EARLY THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE IN SHAPE. WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL COME NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES...AS IT LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL CASE AND THE GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE RED FLAG WARNING.
DAY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
06/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AVIATION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA... QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID
MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER... AND WILL RESULT IN ONE TO TWO HOURS OF GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AIRFIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE/WILL DEVELOP... INCREASING MID TO LATE
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS COULD APPROACH
30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET... BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.
CURRENTLY... 06/08Z SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE FINE LINE ON KVNX/KTLX
REVEAL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST S/SE OF PONCA CITY EXTENDING
THROUGH THE NW OKC METRO AND SOUTHWEST TO HOBART TO CHILDRESS TEXAS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING... ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS OUT OF THE S/SW HAVE APPROACHED 40 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. THE WIND SHIFT HAD
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WOODWARD COUNTY WILDFIRE... THOUGH THE
VISIBLE SMOKE PLUME HAS WANED THIS MORNING... EVEN WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OUT OF THE N/NW.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON WV... THE H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
KICK INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND THIS SAME TIME. IN RESPONSE...
WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN N/NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY THIS MORNING... PROMOTING A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A WIND
ADVISORY... 850 TO 700MB WINDS WILL BE DECENT... BUT TIMING AND
OVERALL DEPTH OF MIXING ARE QUESTIONABLE FROM BUFR SOUNDINGS THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH...
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH... SO RIGHT ON THE EDGE... BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
THE MOMENT... ALSO CONSIDERING A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREAS IN QUESTION.
FIRE WEATHER... WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS... WE/LL DRY OUT QUICKLY
AGAIN WITH BL MIXING THIS AM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS NEAR DAILY STRUGGLE WITH DPTS. A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE
AND RAP SEEM TO BE AN APPROPRIATE COMPROMISE GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS 50/50 BLEND AND HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80... MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL HIT THE
LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS MOST THE AREA. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM W/NW TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY... AND EXPANDED A ROW OF
COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS MAY BE BORDERLINE FARTHER TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW. THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY FOR FIRE FIGHTING/CONTROL EFFORTS
WILL BE FLAIR UPS OF ONGOING HOT SPOTS. SOME GOOD NEWS... WINDS WILL
CALM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... BECOME NEAR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS TEXAS/ARKLATEX. FRIDAY WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE AS A DEEP H500 TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND SHORT... STOUT RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR... BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY... THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
HAVE UPPED THEIR QPF SIGNALS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM... WITH INCREASED WAA
WITH FOCUSING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN KS/NRN OK. THE
GFS HINTED AT THIS SOLUTION WITH ITS 06/00Z RUN... AND WITH THE
06/00Z ECMWF NOW IN... IT HAS A SIMILAR... YET LESS BULLISH
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY... WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. INTO SUNDAY... INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS A WIDE AREA AS A H500
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER... THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS.
WHICH IMPACTS TIMING OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THIS VARIABILITY
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING... HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INCREASE THEIR QPF... OWING TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. OF NOTE... THE 06/00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SIMILAR
SOLUTION TO THE 06/00Z GFS... WITH A DEFINED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF SWRN KS/NWRN OK. HOWEVER... SYNOPTICALLY... THEIR IS STILL
NOTICABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE H500 SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. PRESENTLY... INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE AFTN
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND OF QPF FROM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... WE KNOW
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE MOMENT... GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP DECENT
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE ARE IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THIS IN
MIND... IT/S STILL VERY MUCH A MESSY SET UP... AT FIRST GLANCE...
THE GFS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NRN TX/SRN OK WITH
THE INCREASED LLJ AND POSSIBLE SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS MORE LINEAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 80 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 84 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 76 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 76 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 47 81 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>040-042-
044.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE IN SHAPE. WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL COME NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES...AS IT LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL CASE AND THE GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE RED FLAG WARNING.
DAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
06/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AVIATION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA... QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID
MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER... AND WILL RESULT IN ONE TO TWO HOURS OF GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AIRFIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE/WILL DEVELOP... INCREASING MID TO LATE
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS COULD APPROACH
30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET... BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.
CURRENTLY... 06/08Z SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE FINE LINE ON KVNX/KTLX
REVEAL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST S/SE OF PONCA CITY EXTENDING
THROUGH THE NW OKC METRO AND SOUTHWEST TO HOBART TO CHILDRESS TEXAS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING... ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS OUT OF THE S/SW HAVE APPROACHED 40 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. THE WIND SHIFT HAD
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WOODWARD COUNTY WILDFIRE... THOUGH THE
VISIBLE SMOKE PLUME HAS WANED THIS MORNING... EVEN WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OUT OF THE N/NW.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON WV... THE H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
KICK INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND THIS SAME TIME. IN RESPONSE...
WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN N/NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY THIS MORNING... PROMOTING A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A WIND
ADVISORY... 850 TO 700MB WINDS WILL BE DECENT... BUT TIMING AND
OVERALL DEPTH OF MIXING ARE QUESTIONABLE FROM BUFR SOUNDINGS THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH...
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH... SO RIGHT ON THE EDGE... BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
THE MOMENT... ALSO CONSIDERING A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREAS IN QUESTION.
FIRE WEATHER... WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS... WE/LL DRY OUT QUICKLY
AGAIN WITH BL MIXING THIS AM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS NEAR DAILY STRUGGLE WITH DPTS. A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE
AND RAP SEEM TO BE AN APPROPRIATE COMPROMISE GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS 50/50 BLEND AND HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80... MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL HIT THE
LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS MOST THE AREA. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM W/NW TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY... AND EXPANDED A ROW OF
COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS MAY BE BORDERLINE FARTHER TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW. THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY FOR FIRE FIGHTING/CONTROL EFFORTS
WILL BE FLAIR UPS OF ONGOING HOT SPOTS. SOME GOOD NEWS... WINDS WILL
CALM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... BECOME NEAR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS TEXAS/ARKLATEX. FRIDAY WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE AS A DEEP H500 TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND SHORT... STOUT RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR... BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY... THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
HAVE UPPED THEIR QPF SIGNALS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM... WITH INCREASED WAA
WITH FOCUSING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN KS/NRN OK. THE
GFS HINTED AT THIS SOLUTION WITH ITS 06/00Z RUN... AND WITH THE
06/00Z ECMWF NOW IN... IT HAS A SIMILAR... YET LESS BULLISH
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY... WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. INTO SUNDAY... INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS A WIDE AREA AS A H500
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER... THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS.
WHICH IMPACTS TIMING OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THIS VARIABILITY
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING... HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INCREASE THEIR QPF... OWING TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. OF NOTE... THE 06/00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SIMILAR
SOLUTION TO THE 06/00Z GFS... WITH A DEFINED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF SWRN KS/NWRN OK. HOWEVER... SYNOPTICALLY... THEIR IS STILL
NOTICABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE H500 SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. PRESENTLY... INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE AFTN
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND OF QPF FROM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... WE KNOW
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE MOMENT... GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP DECENT
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE ARE IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THIS IN
MIND... IT/S STILL VERY MUCH A MESSY SET UP... AT FIRST GLANCE...
THE GFS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NRN TX/SRN OK WITH
THE INCREASED LLJ AND POSSIBLE SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS MORE LINEAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 45 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 40 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 40 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 47 81 49 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>040-042-
044.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
602 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
06/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.AVIATION...
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA... QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID
MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER... AND WILL RESULT IN ONE TO TWO HOURS OF GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AIRFIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE/WILL DEVELOP... INCREASING MID TO LATE
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS COULD APPROACH
30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET... BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.
CURRENTLY... 06/08Z SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE FINE LINE ON KVNX/KTLX
REVEAL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST S/SE OF PONCA CITY EXTENDING
THROUGH THE NW OKC METRO AND SOUTHWEST TO HOBART TO CHILDRESS TEXAS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING... ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS OUT OF THE S/SW HAVE APPROACHED 40 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. THE WIND SHIFT HAD
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WOODWARD COUNTY WILDFIRE... THOUGH THE
VISIBLE SMOKE PLUME HAS WANED THIS MORNING... EVEN WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OUT OF THE N/NW.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON WV... THE H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
KICK INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND THIS SAME TIME. IN RESPONSE...
WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN N/NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY THIS MORNING... PROMOTING A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A WIND
ADVISORY... 850 TO 700MB WINDS WILL BE DECENT... BUT TIMING AND
OVERALL DEPTH OF MIXING ARE QUESTIONABLE FROM BUFR SOUNDINGS THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH...
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH... SO RIGHT ON THE EDGE... BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
THE MOMENT... ALSO CONSIDERING A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREAS IN QUESTION.
FIRE WEATHER... WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS... WE/LL DRY OUT QUICKLY
AGAIN WITH BL MIXING THIS AM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS NEAR DAILY STRUGGLE WITH DPTS. A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE
AND RAP SEEM TO BE AN APPROPRIATE COMPROMISE GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS 50/50 BLEND AND HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80... MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL HIT THE
LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS MOST THE AREA. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM W/NW TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY... AND EXPANDED A ROW OF
COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS MAY BE BORDERLINE FARTHER TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW. THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY FOR FIRE FIGHTING/CONTROL EFFORTS
WILL BE FLAIR UPS OF ONGOING HOT SPOTS. SOME GOOD NEWS... WINDS WILL
CALM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... BECOME NEAR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS TEXAS/ARKLATEX. FRIDAY WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE AS A DEEP H500 TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND SHORT... STOUT RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR... BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY... THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
HAVE UPPED THEIR QPF SIGNALS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM... WITH INCREASED WAA
WITH FOCUSING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN KS/NRN OK. THE
GFS HINTED AT THIS SOLUTION WITH ITS 06/00Z RUN... AND WITH THE
06/00Z ECMWF NOW IN... IT HAS A SIMILAR... YET LESS BULLISH
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY... WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. INTO SUNDAY... INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS A WIDE AREA AS A H500
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER... THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS.
WHICH IMPACTS TIMING OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THIS VARIABILITY
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING... HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INCREASE THEIR QPF... OWING TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. OF NOTE... THE 06/00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SIMILAR
SOLUTION TO THE 06/00Z GFS... WITH A DEFINED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF SWRN KS/NWRN OK. HOWEVER... SYNOPTICALLY... THEIR IS STILL
NOTICABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE H500 SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. PRESENTLY... INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE AFTN
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND OF QPF FROM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... WE KNOW
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE MOMENT... GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP DECENT
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE ARE IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THIS IN
MIND... IT/S STILL VERY MUCH A MESSY SET UP... AT FIRST GLANCE...
THE GFS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NRN TX/SRN OK WITH
THE INCREASED LLJ AND POSSIBLE SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS MORE LINEAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 45 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 40 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 40 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 47 81 49 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>040-042-044.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
339 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.
CURRENTLY... 06/08Z SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE FINE LINE ON KVNX/KTLX
REVEAL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST S/SE OF PONCA CITY EXTENDING
THROUGH THE NW OKC METRO AND SOUTHWEST TO HOBART TO CHILDRESS TEXAS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING... ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS OUT OF THE S/SW HAVE APPROACHED 40 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. THE WIND SHIFT HAD
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WOODWARD COUNTY WILDFIRE... THOUGH THE
VISIBLE SMOKE PLUME HAS WANED THIS MORNING... EVEN WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OUT OF THE N/NW.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON WV... THE H500 SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
KICK INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND THIS SAME TIME. IN RESPONSE...
WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN N/NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY THIS MORNING... PROMOTING A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A WIND
ADVISORY... 850 TO 700MB WINDS WILL BE DECENT... BUT TIMING AND
OVERALL DEPTH OF MIXING ARE QUESTIONABLE FROM BUFR SOUNDINGS THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH...
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH... SO RIGHT ON THE EDGE... BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
THE MOMENT... ALSO CONSIDERING A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREAS IN QUESTION.
FIRE WEATHER... WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS... WE/LL DRY OUT QUICKLY
AGAIN WITH BL MIXING THIS AM. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS NEAR DAILY STRUGGLE WITH DPTS. A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE
AND RAP SEEM TO BE AN APPROPRIATE COMPROMISE GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS 50/50 BLEND AND HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80... MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL HIT THE
LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS MOST THE AREA. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM W/NW TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY... AND EXPANDED A ROW OF
COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS MAY BE BORDERLINE FARTHER TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW. THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY FOR FIRE FIGHTING/CONTROL EFFORTS
WILL BE FLAIR UPS OF ONGOING HOT SPOTS. SOME GOOD NEWS... WINDS WILL
CALM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... BECOME NEAR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS TEXAS/ARKLATEX. FRIDAY WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE AS A DEEP H500 TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND SHORT... STOUT RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR... BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY... THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
HAVE UPPED THEIR QPF SIGNALS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM... WITH INCREASED WAA
WITH FOCUSING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN KS/NRN OK. THE
GFS HINTED AT THIS SOLUTION WITH ITS 06/00Z RUN... AND WITH THE
06/00Z ECMWF NOW IN... IT HAS A SIMILAR... YET LESS BULLISH
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY... WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. INTO SUNDAY... INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS A WIDE AREA AS A H500
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER... THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS.
WHICH IMPACTS TIMING OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THIS VARIABILITY
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING... HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INCREASE THEIR QPF... OWING TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. OF NOTE... THE 06/00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SIMILAR
SOLUTION TO THE 06/00Z GFS... WITH A DEFINED SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF SWRN KS/NWRN OK. HOWEVER... SYNOPTICALLY... THEIR IS STILL
NOTICABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE H500 SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. PRESENTLY... INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE AFTN
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND OF QPF FROM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... WE KNOW
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE MOMENT... GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP DECENT
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... TIMING OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE ARE IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THIS IN
MIND... IT/S STILL VERY MUCH A MESSY SET UP... AT FIRST GLANCE...
THE GFS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NRN TX/SRN OK WITH
THE INCREASED LLJ AND POSSIBLE SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS MORE LINEAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 45 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 40 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 40 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 47 81 49 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>040-042-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>017-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS
EXTREMELY COLD FOR APRIL AND WILL PRODUCE A VERY COLD WEEKEND.
THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW. THE SECOND WAVE COULD PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY. A WEAKER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN US TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
GREENLAND BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING. SOME HIGH CIRRUS AROUND...THICKER
IN NORTHWESTERN PA MOSTLY CLEAR IN SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE TWENTIES WITH SOME OUTLYING AREAS IN THE TEENS AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN SOME OF THE LARGER URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN PA.
THE 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO RUN 4-6F WARMER THAN ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE. THE 03 UTC SREF IS WARMER THAN OUR BLENDS TOO. BUT NOT
AS ROBUSTLY WARM AS THE HRRR. SO WE NUDGED FORECASTS WARMER BUT
COULD NOT STAY COLLABORATED IF WENT MORE WITH THE HRRR. SUSPECT
MOST FORECASTS ARE TOO COLD TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS.
KEPT POPS VERY LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE JUST ENTERING NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS RAIN ARRIVES IN
WARREN COUNTY IN A 6 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
NUDGED QPF A BIT AND SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR 630 AM
UPDATE WITH LIMITED NEW GUIDANCE...
PREVIOUS: MODELS SHOW RAIN COMES IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT PEAKING EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS IMPLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. PEAK TIME
IN SREF IS ABOUT 06 TO 18 UTC THURSDAY. BUT RAIN WILL LINGER IN
EAST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BE 0.2 TO 0.75
WITH SREF SHOWING HIGHER CHANCE OF LOCALLY AROUND 1 INCH IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND GEFS SHOWING LOWER PROBABILITY OF AN
INCH.
BOTH EFS HAVE A WET BIAS SO QPF LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH. N
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO STATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NW THEN SPREAD INTO SW MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD TURN COLDER LATE IN DAY OVER MOST OF STATE BUT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CHANGES ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
FROM RAIN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN
SOUTHEAST MORE LIKELY RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
IT WILL UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE IS -18C CONTOUR AT 850 HPA IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST IN EARLY APRIL.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER SNOW
EVENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW
SATURDAY IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PA.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS THROUGH 07/12Z | ISSUED 750 AM 4/6/16 EDT
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH
07/06Z. CIGS TREND LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT AGL EARLY TONIGHT WITH
SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE 06-12 AS RAIN EXPANDS FROM W TO E.
STILL EXPECT SFC GUSTS 20-30KTS FROM 130-190 DEGREES. LLWS WRN
1/3 AFTER 07/00Z AND BORDERLINE CENTRAL+ERN SXNS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN SPREADS INTO WRN AIRSPACE AFT 00Z AND
EXPANDS W TO E ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY-SUNDAY
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF RA/SN SHOWERS. BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
646 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS
EXTREMELY COLD FOR APRIL AND WILL PRODUCE A VERY COLD WEEKEND.
THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW. THE SECOND WAVE COULD PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY. A WEAKER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN US TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND BEGINS
TO WEAKEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING. SOME HIGH CIRRUS AROUND...THICKER
IN NORTHWESTERN PA MOSTLY CLEAR IN SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE TWENTIES WITH SOME OUTLYING AREAS IN THE TEENS AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN SOME OF THE LARGER URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN PA.
THE 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO RUN 4-6F WARMER THAN ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE. THE 03 UTC SREF IS WARMER THAN OUR BLENDS TOO. BUT NOT
AS ROBUSTLY WARM AS THE HRRR. SO WE NUDGED FORECASTS WARMER BUT
COULD NOT STAY COLLABORATED IF WENT MORE WITH THE HRRR. SUSPECT
MOST FORECASTS ARE TOO COLD TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS.
KEPT POPS VERY LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE JUST ENTERING NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS RAIN ARRIVES IN
WARREN COUNTY IN A 6 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
NUDGED QPF A BIT AND SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR 630 AM
UPDATE WITH LIMITED NEW GUIDANCE...
PREVIOUS: MODELS SHOW RAIN COMES IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT PEAKING EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS IMPLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. PEAK TIME
IN SREF IS ABOUT 06 TO 18 UTC THURSDAY. BUT RAIN WILL LINGER IN
EAST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BE 0.2 TO 0.75
WITH SREF SHOWING HIGHER CHANCE OF LOCALLY AROUND 1 INCH IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND GEFS SHOWING LOWER PROBABILITY OF AN
INCH.
BOTH EFS HAVE A WET BIAS SO QPF LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH. N
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO STATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NW THEN SPREAD INTO SW MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD TURN COLDER LATE IN DAY OVER MOST OF STATE BUT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CHANGES ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
FROM RAIN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN
SOUTHEAST MORE LIKELY RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
IT WILL UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE IS -18C CONTOUR AT 850 HPA IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST IN EARLY APRIL.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER SNOW
EVENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW
SATURDAY IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PA.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE 06/06Z TAFS THROUGH 07/06Z | ISSUED 150 AM 4/6/16 EDT
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE AIRSPACE DURING THE
PERIOD. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5KFT AGL WRN 1/3 AFTER 07/00Z.
MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE WINDS...EXPECT SFC GUSTS 20-30KTS
FROM 130-190 DEGREES AFTER 15Z. LLWS WRN 1/3 AFTER 07/00Z AND MAY
SPREAD EWD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN LKLY TO REACH WRN 1/3 BY
07/06Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY-SUNDAY
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF RA/SN SHOWERS. BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 4/6:
HARRISBURG: 22/1898
WILLIAMSPORT: 18/1982
STATE COLLEGE: 19/1995
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
452 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS
EXTREMELY COLD FOR APRIL AND WILL PRODUCE A VERY COLD WEEKEND.
THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW. THE SECOND WAVE COULD PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY. A WEAKER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN US TROUGH SHOULD
WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND BEGINS
TO WEAKEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN REGIONS WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER A VERY COLD START
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP STEADILY THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 5OS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND SREF WANT TO HOLD OFF ANY RAINFALL IN THE
WEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HRRR ONLY GOES TO 20 UTC AND
SHOWS NO QPF IN PA. 4KM NAM SHOWS SIMILAR DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
THE HRRR IS RUNNING A GOOD 3-5F WARMER TODAY THAN MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE. WE USED A BLEND MAINLY SUPERBLEND/NBM. BUT NUDGED A BIT
TOWARD THE WARMER HRRR.
KEPT POPS VERY LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE JUST ENTERING NW PA IN
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW RAIN COMES IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BEST
TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT PEAKING EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS IMPLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. PEAK TIME IN SREF IS
ABOUT 06 TO 18 UTC THURSDAY. BUT RAIN WILL LINGER IN EAST UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BE 0.2 TO 0.75 WITH SREF
SHOWING HIGHER CHANCE OF LOCALLY AROUND 1 INCH IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA AND GEFS SHOWING LOWER PROBABILITY OF AN INCH.
BOTH EFS HAVE A WET BIAS SO QPF LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO STATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NW THEN SPREAD INTO SW MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD TURN COLDER LATE IN DAY OVER MOST OF STATE BUT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CHANGES ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
FROM RAIN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN
SOUTHEAST MORE LIKELY RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
IT WILL UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE IS -18C CONTOUR AT 850 HPA IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST IN EARLY APRIL.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER SNOW
EVENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW
SATURDAY IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PA.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE 06/06Z TAFS THROUGH 07/06Z | ISSUED 150 AM 4/6/16 EDT
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE AIRSPACE DURING THE
PERIOD. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5KFT AGL WRN 1/3 AFTER 07/00Z.
MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE WINDS...EXPECT SFC GUSTS 20-30KTS
FROM 130-190 DEGREES AFTER 15Z. LLWS WRN 1/3 AFTER 07/00Z AND MAY
SPREAD EWD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN LKLY TO REACH WRN 1/3 BY
07/06Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY-SUNDAY
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF RA/SN SHOWERS. BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 4/6:
HARRISBURG: 22/1898
WILLIAMSPORT: 18/1982
STATE COLLEGE: 19/1995
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL YIELD TO A MILDER AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD THEN PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SOME DRYING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. COLDER AIR RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BEFORE MODERATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN REGIONS WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER A VERY COLD START
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP STEADILY THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 5OS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HRRR AND SREF WANT TO HOLD OFF ANY RAINFALL IN THE
WEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HRRR ONLY GOES TO 20 UTC AND
SHOWS NO QPF IN PA. 4KM NAM SHOWS SIMILAR DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
THE HRRR IS RUNNING A GOOD 3-5F WARMER TODAY THAN MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE. WE USED A BLEND MAINLY SUPERBLEND/NBM. BUT NUDGED A BIT
TOWARD THE WARMER HRRR.
KEPT POPS VERY LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE JUST ENTERING NW PA IN
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW RAIN COMES IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BEST
TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT PEAKING EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS IMPLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. PEAK TIME IN SREF IS
ABOUT 06 TO 18 UTC THURSDAY. BUT RAIN WILL LINGER IN EAST UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD BE 0.2 TO 0.75 WITH SREF
SHOWING HIGHER CHANCE OF LOCALLY AROUND 1 INCH IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA AND GEFS SHOWING LOWER PROBABILITY OF AN INCH.
BOTH EFS HAVE A WET BIAS SO QPF LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO STATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW AND THEN TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NW THEN SPREAD INTO SW MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD TURN COLDER LATE IN DAY OVER MOST OF STATE BUT CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CHANGES ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
FROM RAIN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONSIN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN
SOUTHEAST MORE LIKELY RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.
IT WILL UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE IS -18C CONTOUR AT 850 HPA IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST IN EARLY APRIL.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER SNOW
EVENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW
SATURDAY IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PA.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE 06/06Z TAFS THROUGH 07/06Z | ISSUED 150 AM 4/6/16 EDT
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS THE AIRSPACE DURING THE
PERIOD. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5KFT AGL WRN 1/3 AFTER 07/00Z.
MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE WINDS...EXPECT SFC GUSTS 20-30KTS
FROM 130-190 DEGREES AFTER 15Z. LLWS WRN 1/3 AFTER 07/00Z AND MAY
SPREAD EWD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN LKLY TO REACH WRN 1/3 BY
07/06Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY-SUNDAY
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF RA/SN SHOWERS. BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 4/6:
HARRISBURG: 22/1898
WILLIAMSPORT: 18/1982
STATE COLLEGE: 19/1995
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CIRRUS SHIELD COVERING
MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH A CLEARER AREA OVER N GA AND MAKING
SLIGHT PROGRESS INTO SW NC. HOWEVER IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR FURTHER
EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND WILL SOON
MOVE INTO EAST TN AND N GA. WHILE THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD AND NOT IMPACT OUR AREA...SOME CLOUD DEBRIS MAY FILL
BACK IN. FCST TRENDS THRU MID-EVENING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. I
DID BACK OFF THE POPS WE HAD OVER THE MTNS AS THE HRRR AND OTHER
CAMS INDICATE NO DEVELOPMENT UNTIL FRONTAL LINE ARRIVES 03-04Z.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STEEPEN THIS EVENING AS A PRE-FRONTAL LLVL JET STRENGTHENS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BL MIXING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2 KFT THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING FREQUENT SOUTH GUSTS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20 KTS. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE. CAMS
INDICATE THAT A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREDIBLE VALUES OF 0-1 KM HELICITY ACROSS THE
CWA...PEAKING AROUND 6Z WITH AROUND 700 M2/S2 ACROSS THE MTNS AND
400 M2/S2 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO AROUND 400
J/KG ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A QLCS...SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTIONS GIVEN BY THE 4KM
WRF AND HRRR. GIVEN STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL STORM
STRUCTURE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA. A BRIEF AND WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING. MILD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...MID
40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 50S EAST.
THURSDAY...BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
CWA...RESULTING IN DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND THINNING CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE WSW DURING THE DAY...PEAKING ACROSS
THE NC NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT GUSTS ABOVE 46 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CHANNELIZED H5
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURE
AND LLVL NW WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SCT TO NUM SHOWERS ALONG THE TN
LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT KAVL TO UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RETURN
TO WINTER EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
COOLER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THICKNESS TUMBLES STEADILY AS
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORCED UP THE TN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PASSAGE OF A FOLLOW-UP SHORT WAVE...THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CHANNELED
VORTICITY...WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPREAD OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS SUPPORT
MAINLY RAIN TO START WITH...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL FROM
ABOUT 5K FEET AT 00Z FRIDAY DOWN ALMOST TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY....AND WILL THEN STAY SOMEWHERE IN THE 2K-3K FT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURGES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER THROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WOULD NOT BE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM IF THE QPF GUIDANCE HAD NOT MADE A TREND TOWARD A
WETTER SYSTEM. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A BLEND OF THE WETTER WPC
GUIDANCE AND THE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBDUED NAM/SREF...WE STILL GET THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS NEAR
THE TN BORDER...AND PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MANY PARTS OF
THE NRN MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...THE TIMING OF ONSET BEING THE THIRD
PERIOD MEANS WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IF THE TREND
CONTINUES...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 32F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AVERY COUNTY...AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS...PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...TO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD ACROSS THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE BELOW 32F ACROSS ALL THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LINGERING STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FROST OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...OR MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES THE PLACE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY SLIDES
EAST AND MODERATES ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOULD
BE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER FREEZE OR NEAR FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RISING HEIGHTS...MODERATING AIR MASS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THAN
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS...SO HAVE POP INCREASING TO LIKELY WEST AND CHANCE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER MENTION OVER THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
THE GFS THEN OPENS UP YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US MOVING IT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
06/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. NATURALLY...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE GULF LOW PRESSURE...BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...KEEPING THE CWFA
DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POP INCREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A WIDE
FIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING NORTH
ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN THIS EVENING AS A PRE FRONT LLVL
JET STRENGTHENS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BL
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2 KFT THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING
FREQUENT SOUTH GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 KTS. IN
ADDITION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE. CAMS INDICATE THAT A SOLID BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EAST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING FROM THE SW AND
REMAINING GUSTY. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN ENDING SHOWERS AND
RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 68% MED 79% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT TODAY IN MUCH
OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL NOT REACH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA OF
15 MPH AND OR GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH IT NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
AVIATION...
DRY VFR CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES CROSSING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES RIGHT NOW
HAVE LED TO WIND SPEEDS LINGERING NEAR 30 MPH SOUTHERN ZONES. SPEEDS
HAVE DROPPED ALREADY NORTHERN AREAS AND WOULD CERTAINLY EXPECT THE
SAME DROP OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR LESS. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING...OR COULD
BE CANCELLED AN HOUR EARLY IF THE DIMINISHING TREND CONTINUES.
WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS MORNING AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH MORE UNDER CONTROL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW
NEAR 850 MILLIBARS EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
LATER THIS MORNING EASTERN ZONES WITH A RETURN TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR PERHAPS CLOSE TO
LATEST RAP DEWPOINT TRENDS WILL BE SPAN THE AREA MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING
WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. A WEAK VERSION
OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
ALOFT...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT DROVE THIS STRONG FRONT INTO THE
AREA EARLIER TONIGHT WILL STEER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY
WITH DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUR AREA EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THIS MORNING AND
THEN BE GONE FOR THE MOST PART. BCCONSRAW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS
FARED WELL LATELY BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESEMBLES OUR GOING
FORECAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE CLOSELY...AND SO IS PREFERRED. THIS
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A
SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...A VERY WEAK ONE...WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ONLY REAL FORM OF LIFT THAT CAN BE ATTAINED
WILL BE FROM A WEAKNESS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE RIDGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT THAT IS MOST
LIKELY IT. POPS WILL BE KEPT BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
TOO OPTIMISTIC. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RIDGE HAS LESS INFLUENCE.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A NEG TILT WILL KICK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WHILE DEVELOPING A DRYLINE IN EASTERN NM BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A NICE FETCH OF SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEW POINTS TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE GFS SHOWS
CONVECTION INITIATING JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY 18Z AND
QUICKLY PUSHES EAST AS AN MCS. PWATS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES SHOW THAT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE
ECMWF HAD A CHANGE OF HEART SINCE 24 HOURS AGO AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE TO THE
OK PANHANDLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT SO FAR AND ALSO HAS
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT LINE UP FAIRLY DECENTLY WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH THAT THE GFS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WEIGHT IN
THE FORECAST AND POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
BEYOND SUNDAY...A FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL DETERMINE HOW WINDY IT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HAS A
MORE PASSIVE FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. WINDS
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY RELAXED...15-20 MPH...ESPECIALLY
SINCE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE PUSH WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST WITH
A RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE IT STILL HAS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS IN RESULT
MUCH WINDIER WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER 20 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER LOW/OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING WITH
IT MORE PRECIP. ALDRICH
FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE AROUND MIDDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT RIGHT AT KCLL TO
KDKR AT 17Z. LINE OF CU/TCU ALONG THE FRONT BUT DO NOT EXPECT VERY
MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN CAPPING ON 12Z CRP SOUNDING.
COLD FRONT IS RATHER WEAK BUT WILL BE HOLDING ONTO CEILINGS AROUND
2000-3000 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. FRONT SHOULD REACH HOUSTON AREA AROUND 21Z AND THEN THE
COAST ANYWHERE BETWEEN 22 TO 03Z. HRRR RUNS SHOW SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING AND THE FRONT MEETING IT 00-02Z. NOT SURE IF FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH THROUGH KLBX AND KGLS BUT DO EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
UNTIL WINDS BECOME CALM AFTER 06Z. SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS FOR
TOMORROW AND LIGHT S/SW BREEZES DEVELOPING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED SO FAR THIS
MORNING. ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME AT CLL AOA 17-18Z...IAH AOA 21-22Z
AND THEN AT THE COAST AROUND SUNSET. NOT SEEING ANY PCPN WITH THIS
LINE BUT GRAVITY WAVES MAKING FOR SOME SPECTACULAR CLOUD WATCHING.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 51 81 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 55 82 57 81 / 10 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 62 77 63 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.AVIATION...
DRY VFR CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES CROSSING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES RIGHT NOW
HAVE LED TO WIND SPEEDS LINGERING NEAR 30 MPH SOUTHERN ZONES. SPEEDS
HAVE DROPPED ALREADY NORTHERN AREAS AND WOULD CERTAINLY EXPECT THE
SAME DROP OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR LESS. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING...OR COULD
BE CANCELLED AN HOUR EARLY IF THE DIMINISHING TREND CONTINUES.
WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS MORNING AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH MORE UNDER CONTROL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW
NEAR 850 MILLIBARS EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
LATER THIS MORNING EASTERN ZONES WITH A RETURN TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR PERHAPS CLOSE TO
LATEST RAP DEWPOINT TRENDS WILL BE SPAN THE AREA MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING
WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. A WEAK VERSION
OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
ALOFT...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT DROVE THIS STRONG FRONT INTO THE
AREA EARLIER TONIGHT WILL STEER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY
WITH DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUR AREA EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THIS MORNING AND
THEN BE GONE FOR THE MOST PART. BCCONSRAW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS
FARED WELL LATELY BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESEMBLES OUR GOING
FORECAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE CLOSELY...AND SO IS PREFERRED. THIS
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A
SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...A VERY WEAK ONE...WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ONLY REAL FORM OF LIFT THAT CAN BE ATTAINED
WILL BE FROM A WEAKNESS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE RIDGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT THAT IS MOST
LIKELY IT. POPS WILL BE KEPT BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
TOO OPTIMISTIC. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RIDGE HAS LESS INFLUENCE.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A NEG TILT WILL KICK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WHILE DEVELOPING A DRYLINE IN EASTERN NM BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A NICE FETCH OF SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEW POINTS TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE GFS SHOWS
CONVECTION INITIATING JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY 18Z AND
QUICKLY PUSHES EAST AS AN MCS. PWATS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES SHOW THAT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE
ECMWF HAD A CHANGE OF HEART SINCE 24 HOURS AGO AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE TO THE
OK PANHANDLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT SO FAR AND ALSO HAS
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT LINE UP FAIRLY DECENTLY WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH THAT THE GFS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WEIGHT IN
THE FORECAST AND POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
BEYOND SUNDAY...A FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL DETERMINE HOW WINDY IT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HAS A
MORE PASSIVE FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. WINDS
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY RELAXED...15-20 MPH...ESPECIALLY
SINCE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE PUSH WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST WITH
A RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE IT STILL HAS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS IN RESULT
MUCH WINDIER WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER 20 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER LOW/OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING WITH
IT MORE PRECIP. ALDRICH
FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE AROUND MIDDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES CROSSING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES RIGHT NOW
HAVE LED TO WIND SPEEDS LINGERING NEAR 30 MPH SOUTHERN ZONES. SPEEDS
HAVE DROPPED ALREADY NORTHERN AREAS AND WOULD CERTAINLY EXPECT THE
SAME DROP OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR LESS. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING...OR COULD
BE CANCELLED AN HOUR EARLY IF THE DIMINISHING TREND CONTINUES.
WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS MORNING AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH MORE UNDER CONTROL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW
NEAR 850 MILLIBARS EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
LATER THIS MORNING EASTERN ZONES WITH A RETURN TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR PERHAPS CLOSE TO
LATEST RAP DEWPOINT TRENDS WILL BE SPAN THE AREA MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING
WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. A WEAK VERSION
OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
ALOFT...THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT DROVE THIS STRONG FRONT INTO THE
AREA EARLIER TONIGHT WILL STEER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY
WITH DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUR AREA EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THIS MORNING AND
THEN BE GONE FOR THE MOST PART. BCCONSRAW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS
FARED WELL LATELY BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESEMBLES OUR GOING
FORECAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE CLOSELY...AND SO IS PREFERRED. THIS
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A
SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...A VERY WEAK ONE...WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ONLY REAL FORM OF LIFT THAT CAN BE ATTAINED
WILL BE FROM A WEAKNESS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE RIDGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT THAT IS MOST
LIKELY IT. POPS WILL BE KEPT BELOW GUIDANCE AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
TOO OPTIMISTIC. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RIDGE HAS LESS INFLUENCE.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A NEG TILT WILL KICK THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST WHILE DEVELOPING A DRYLINE IN EASTERN NM BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A NICE FETCH OF SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEW POINTS TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE GFS SHOWS
CONVECTION INITIATING JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY 18Z AND
QUICKLY PUSHES EAST AS AN MCS. PWATS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES SHOW THAT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE
ECMWF HAD A CHANGE OF HEART SINCE 24 HOURS AGO AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE TO THE
OK PANHANDLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT SO FAR AND ALSO HAS
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT LINE UP FAIRLY DECENTLY WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH THAT THE GFS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WEIGHT IN
THE FORECAST AND POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
BEYOND SUNDAY...A FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL DETERMINE HOW WINDY IT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HAS A
MORE PASSIVE FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. WINDS
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY RELAXED...15-20 MPH...ESPECIALLY
SINCE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE PUSH WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST WITH
A RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE IT STILL HAS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS IN RESULT
MUCH WINDIER WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER 20 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER LOW/OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING WITH
IT MORE PRECIP. ALDRICH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE AROUND MIDDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>031-
033>036-039>041.
&&
$$
05/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.AVIATION...
STOUT NORTH WINDS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FCST BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MODEST REDUCTION UNTIL MID-MORNING AT KPVW AND
KLBB...NOT UNTIL EARLY AFTN AT KCDS. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MINOR RESTRICTION FROM BLDU AT KPVW AND KLBB
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/
UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE MOMENT WAS PACKING A SUBSTANTIAL PUNCH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
73 MPH IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS DID LIKELY
SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM MID LEVEL CONVECTION. EXTREME PRESSURE
RISES PROGGED IN THE MODELS AND SHOWN IN MSAS DATA WILL LOSE SOME
LUSTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FA BUT WILL STILL BE NOTHING TO
SCOFF AT. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE AN ACCEPTABLE HANDLE ON THE FRONT
TIMING AND SPEEDS ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BIT ON THE SLOW SIDE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ACROSS AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK EXTENDING OVER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 5 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/
AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND SHIFT TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS BTWN 05Z AND 07Z. WIND TO REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT...JUST FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TO AOB 12KTS BY NOON AT KPVW AND KLBB AND BY MID-AFTERNOON AT
KCDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/
SHORT TERM...
A WARM, DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE
WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR ASPERMONT HAS REACHED 88 DEGREES AS OF
2 PM WHILE WINDS WERE THE GENERALLY THE STRONGEST /30 TO 40 MPH/
FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM. FAIRLY THICK HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED KEEP BLOWING DUST DOWN SO FAR...BUT WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS THE
CLOUD COVER SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN SOUTH BY AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
IT WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...AS
GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT....ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE WIND SPEEDS WITH THE FROPA
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS OUT NEAR THE STATE LINE...SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. OTHERWISE...AFTER A BREEZY START...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NICE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH SPANNING MUCH OF TEXAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
NESTLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT UNDER STEADY BUT
DECAYING NW FLOW. AFTER A QUICK REBOUND TO BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD SW WINDS ON THURSDAY...THE FINAL VESTIGES OF THIS NW FLOW
WILL DELIVER ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN MARKEDLY WITHIN A NW-SE RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE STOUT BY ANY MEANS AND IS ALREADY
QUITE DIRTY FROM AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS MOIST FETCH SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
WEST TX FROM LATE THU THROUGH FRI AND COULD SERVE TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS MUCH COOLER ON FRI THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICITS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY IN
RELATIVELY DRY ERLY SFC FLOW...THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE ALOFT AS
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING RAMPS UP OVER MUCH OF NM AND OUR WRN ZONES AHEAD
OF A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH SUCH ANEMIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE TROUGH...A LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF SATURATION AND WEAK ASCENT
WOULD APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM FRI
AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT POPS LARGELY AT 20 PERCENT AS
THE RATE AT WHICH THIS MOISTENING ADVANCES EASTWARD IS ANYTHING BUT
SETTLED AMONG THE 12Z MODELS. ALSO...MUCH OF THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL
BE ABSORBED ON FRIDAY BY A VIGOROUS CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF CA...SO LIFT
OVERALL DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE AS
STRONGER SW FLOW ADVECTS STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUR WAY.
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLIES FROM THE GOMEX ON SUNDAY SHOULD
CULMINATE IN A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION WITH PROSPECTS FOR
ORGANIZED T-STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THEME DESPITE SOME SIZABLE
DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
TROUGH CARVING OVER THE NRN CONUS BY SUNDAY. RAISED POPS TO THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD PREFERENCE FOR NOW
GIVEN EARLY SPRING CLIMATOLOGY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FROM THE
PRIOR FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
TEMPS COOL AND WINDS DECREASE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN-MOST AREAS THROUGH 9 PM. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AND DESPITE LOWER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS THOUGH WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ021>031-033>036-
039>041.
&&
$$
01/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH BAND ACROSS SRN PINAL COUNTY...THE ERN PORTION OF THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM INTO ERN PIMA COUNTY...AND SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING WAS ALSO DETECTED MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT WRN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SRN PIMA
COUNTY. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALES SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON HAVE RECORDED AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES WERE THE RULE THIS EVENING WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED
COOLING CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP AREA. 08/00Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 0.69 INCH INCREASED NEARLY 0.20 INCH VERSUS 12 HOURS AGO.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 8 PM MST RANGED FROM THE 30S-
LOWER 40S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 25-40 DEGS HIGHER VERSUS
THIS TIME WED EVENING.
HAVE NOTED THAT THE 08/00Z NAM DEPICTED THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE REST OF TONIGHT TO GENERALLY OCCUR
NORTH-TO-EAST OF TUCSON. THE PAST 2-3 RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 08/02Z SOLUTION YIELDED A SIMILAR DEPICTION. HOWEVER...BASED ON
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THESE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THE NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM A CYCLONIC
CENTER JUST WEST OF SRN CALIF SEWD INTO WRN SONORA AS PER THE 08/00Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS...THE DEEP SLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF TRAINING CELLS FURTHER WWD VERSUS THESE
NWP SOLUTIONS.
THUS...WILL MAKE SOME UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FROM TUCSON WWD THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE VICINITY NOGALES NWWD TO NEAR ORGAN PIPE. THE UPSHOT FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA-WIDE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/06Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR THE REST OF TONIGHT
MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST OF KTUS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED -TSRA AREA-WIDE FRIDAY.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TUS
TERMINAL FRIDAY EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 10K-15K FT MSL. SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /215 PM MST/...INCREASING SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A BIT CONVECTIVE FRIDAY...A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS
AROUND .1 TO .3 OF AN INCH IN VALLEYS AND .6 TO 1 INCH IN MOUNTAINS.
LOTS OF OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE...SO LOCALLY HEAVIER POSSIBLE ON
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SLOPES.
AFTER A BREAK SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS LOOKING SOLID FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
A COOLER SYSTEM...THIS ONE MIGHT SEE AN FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8000
FEET.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD BET. AFTER THAT...IT DEPENDS ON HOW THE RIDGE SETS UP
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT COULD ALLOW ANOTHER SYSTEM TO UNDERCUT
LATE NEXT WEEK...OR IT COULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW THAT
EMPHASIZES PLENTY OF WIND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. NEARER TO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS NOW PICKING UP SOME RETURNS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED PRECIP
STARTING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY DAYBREAK BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THIS WON`T OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT NOON OR SO.
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLN. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DELAYED ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNTIL NOON AND
BEYOND WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SO TIMING LOOKS
TO BE THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH (CORTEZ...DURANGO...PAGOSA
SPRINGS) SEEING PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MONTROSE...MOAB...GRAND
JUNCTION...I-70 CORRIDOR) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FROM MIDAFTERNOON
ONWARDS WHILE NORTHERN VALLEYS (VERNAL...RANGELY...CRAIG...STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES IN THE EVENING HOURS. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS INITIALIZE WITH
CURRENT PRECIP AND WILL MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY THROUGH
DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY REMAINS AS DOES SOME CAPE SO SOME ISOLD
TSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE DAY MOVES ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KT FEET OR SO...ABOVE THAT
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT.
SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH
MORE SPORADIC AND SPOTTY IN NATURE. MODELS DO FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-70 WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED PRECIP BUT EVEN SO...PLENTY OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
MODELS ARE PAINTING A DREARY WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE CWA JUST ABOUT EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. BETWEEN THESE
DISTURBANCES THE SUN MAY BREAK OUT FROM TIME TO TIME ONLY TO
RETURN TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE BREAKS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. GENERALLY SPEAKING...LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOKS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. MONDAY MORNING BRINGS A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
UNTIL ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING ROUND THREE OF PRECIP MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER THAT...A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOD COLD FRONT LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
SO THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LUCKILY
THESE SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY WARM SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ONSET OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FROM 18Z ONWARDS.
RAIN AND SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS. EXPECT
KDRO...KTEX...AND KCNY TO BE AFFECTED FIRST WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS. BY 00Z...INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-70
CORRIDOR. NOT SOLD ON MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REACHED HOWEVER SO
WILL KEEP MID LEVEL CIGS IN FORECAST AND ALSO VCSH FOR TAFS. LATER
SHIFTS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ARRIVAL AND HOW LOW CIGS
WILL BE AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. ILS BREAK POINTS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED FOR MOST TAF SITES. UNSETTLED WX...LOW CIGS AND VIS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD AFTN TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1126 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
JUST UPDATED THE SKY COVER GRID TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD BAND
THAT HAS QUICKLY FORMED OVER DENVER AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE METRO AREA. CLOUD DECK NOW APPARENT ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT ONLY THE RAP MDL HAD ANY CLUE THAT THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS AROUND. APPEARS THIS SUDDEN FORMATION OF CLOUD IS A COUPLE OF
FACTORS...NAMELY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
DEFORMATION ALOFT AND A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB FLOW
THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. HENCE
THE 8000-9000 FT AGL BKN AND OVC CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
HAS REACHED UP INTO THE FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY AREAS BUT SKIES
REMAIN ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY UP THERE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE RAP SHOWS DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
MIXING DOWNWARD AND EVENTUALLY ERODING THIS BAND OF LOWER CLOUD
COVER...SOMETIME AROUND 08Z-09Z. BUT THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
REMAIN. WILL PLAY THAT WAS FOR NOW. DON`T SEE ANY PRECIP WITH ANY
OF THIS CLOUD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
ASIDE FM SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AS LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE. THE MIXED CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AS
WELL...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SOME INCREASE IN THIN CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS.
ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER GREAT BASIN WILL
SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DIMINISHES. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER US THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM HE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
DECREASE AND DIMINISH SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS WARMER AIR IS ADVECTED IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED IN SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY SPREAD OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL
AS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING PATTERN IN
PLACE AND WARM ADVECTION.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH UP INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
TRANSPORTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SWING DOWN THAT LATE
AFTERNOON TO CREATE UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE
EVEN MORE....REMAIN UPSLOPE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP MAY
TURNOVER INTO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING UNSTABLE. MODELS HAVE ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 7500 FT OR ABOVE...SO ONLY EXPECTING RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES FROM THE UPSLOPE STORM. THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE LESS.
A SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH HELPING TO END THE
PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL BE IN THE 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UP THERE ABOVE THE STABLE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY...WITH MOUNTAINS SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S OR 70S FOR THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE PACIFIC UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ONSHORE NEAR OREGON THEN DEEPEN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...PUTTING THE STATE IN WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
WARM CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
UPDATED KDEN AND KAPA TERMINAL FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
8000-9000 FT AGL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK THAT HAS QUICKLY FORMED
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS AC DECK AND CIGS PROBABLY AT
THEIR LOWEST AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...I WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE THIS CLOUD BAND GRADUALLY ERODE AND LIFT AS DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWN FROM ALOFT ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALSO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
350 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FREEZE MAY OCCUR. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS TIGHT AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND IN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DIMINISHED MIXING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TIGHT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN AND SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE THIN WITH STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT AND
HIGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. DUE TO
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT INTENSITY OF
PRECIP...REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VSBYS NOT EXPECTED. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH BASES WELL ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
LATEST RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SC
MIDLANDS AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN AL. LATEST SFC HRRR SHOWING
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 11Z.
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT CAE/CUB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND NW 5-10 KTS AT OGB/AGS/DNL BUT DIMINISHING BEFORE
DAWN. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON THE GFS LAMP EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT. RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS
HELPED INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TODAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT NOTING THE INCREASED THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD WHICH
MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY BECAUSE OF FURTHER DRYING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
130 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RETURN
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAK
SECONDARY FRONT OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES SOUTHWARD. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 OF
AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
INCREASING CLOUD DECK AND WINDS REMAINING AT 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SHIFT TO THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS
15-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE 60S. MOSTLY COOL SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND INTENSIFIES AND CLOSES
OFF JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OFFSET SOME OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
FREEZING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THAT MAY LIMIT FROST AND FREEZE
OPPORTUNITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD
EXPECT A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
MON/TUE BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT AND QUICKLY
MOVING IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH STRONGER SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN RETURN MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. DUE TO
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT INTENSITY OF
PRECIP...REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VSBYS NOT EXPECTED. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH BASES WELL ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
LATEST RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SC
MIDLANDS AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN AL. LATEST SFC HRRR SHOWING
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 11Z.
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT CAE/CUB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND NW 5-10 KTS AT OGB/AGS/DNL BUT DIMINISHING BEFORE
DAWN. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
345 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AS LOW PRESSURE HAS DUG SOUTH INTO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A LARGE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A VERY COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...PER -33 C AT THE KINL 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING....ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE ARE MARGINAL AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX (ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH THE MIX) WITH THIS
WAVE INITIALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THESE ECHOES
MOVE FARTHER EAST THEY WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY. KDLL
(WISCONSIN DELLS) HAS REPORTED 1SM VISIBILITY IN THE SNOW...AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TO
OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST IN A CLIPPER
LIKE FASHION. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 20S.
AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
KICK TO THEM. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED MENTION.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OR BRIEF STICKING SNOW THOUGH
ROADS AND AIR TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY WARM TO PREVENT ROAD ISSUES. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AS THE
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AREAS
FAVORED LOOK TO BE THE CHICAGO METRO AREA EASTWARD...AND IF THESE
LAST IN ANY ONE SPOT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THINGS WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
A FAVORABLE FETCH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IN THE EVENING...BUT LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS 850-700 RH DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DECENT
OMEGA IN NW INDIANA TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING
AND SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY STIFF AND THUS SOME SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS WELL.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION
COULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF SLEET
BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND THE WARM FRONT BLASTS ON
THROUGH. GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT DURING THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION
WHERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR BUT MODELS ARE PAINTING
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1226 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. THE PRECIP INTENSITY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF SNOW AND IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 2SM
OR LESS. THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING
COVERAGE/TIMING SO WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY MENTION FOR NOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP INTENSITY AND MAY ONLY LAST FOR A SHORT
PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT BACK NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AS SPEEDS AND GUSTS
INCREASE. GUSTS TO 30KTS OR A BIT HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
347 PM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE LAKE FOR
A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE...FIRST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME GALES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE ON
SUNDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
An initial wave of showers early this morning will gradually shift
eastward toward Indiana this morning, as a surface trough departs.
We can not rule out some intermittent snow showers north of I-74
early this morning, but based on forecast soundings, the primary
precip type should remain liquid.
Previous model output indicated dry conditions behind the trough,
however, the latest HRRR and RAP updates are now indicating a
redevelopment of isolated showers this afternoon progressing from NW
to SE into our counties. The additional showers appear to be tied to
a shortwave evident on the water vapor satellite images over
northern MN. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we added
slight chances of showers in most of our counties. Very little QPF
is expected, with spotty areas actually seeing measurable rain of
0.01".
Bufkit analysis of mixing heights and momentum transfer show that
windy conditions will develop today. Sustained NW winds look to
climb to 20-30 mph by late morning, with gusts near 40 mph through
late afternoon.
High temps will be limited by the cold air advection pattern in
place today, as 850mb temps drop into the -5C to -9C range by
00z/7pm. Any heating from sunshine that does develop should cause
low level cumulus to quickly re-develop, along with spotty showers.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s north of I-74,
with upper 40s to around 50 in the rest of our forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
A couple of days remain in the northwesterly flow regime
over the Midwest. Chilly temps on the way tonight, behind a
shortwave that may bring some scattered showers late this evening.
Eroding clouds and a cold punch in the midlevels will drop overnight
lows into the 20s. Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight
into tomorrow morning. High pressure ridge axis slips over Central
Illinois tomorrow during the day as winds shift from northerly in
the morning...to southerly in the afternoon. These southerly winds
usher in a brief pd of WAA for the region. Temperatures warm for Sat
night and by Sunday, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are
expected...but mitigated somewhat by the next round of precip.
Concerned for the genesis of this system as it is in the wake of an
exiting upper level trof...in the midst of a pattern shift...mainly
zonal flow...but another wave is digging in over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF has started delaying the onset of precip...even if
the GFS and NAM are maintaining. Sunday precip may end up delaying
onset if the trend continues. Precip continues through Monday
morning, clearing throughout the day as the wave over the northern
Plains phases with another shortwave moving out of the SW, briefly
setting up weaker northwesterly flow. ECMWF and GFS showing a few
subtle differences after the pattern shift. For now, the forecast
remains dry through the end of the week, with temps slightly warmer
than climo...with a vigorous wave amplifying the trof over the SW
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR cigs are expected to lower to MVFR for a time Friday
morning as a cold front sweeps across the area bringing
the threat for some light rain. The MVFR cigs are then
expected to lift to VFR during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest cig bases will range lower to between
1500-2500 feet as the cold front sweeps across the TAF
sites in the 10z-15z time Friday. Surface winds ahead
of the boundary may actually back into a southwest
direction briefly in the early morning hours before
winds turn more into west and then northwest with the
FROPA tomorrow morning. We look for wind speeds to
increase after frontal passage tomorrow morning with
sustained speeds in the 20 to 25 kt range with gusts
up to 32 kts at times through the mid afternoon hours
before a diminishing trend sets in after 00z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
339 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT IOWA TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
WIND WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING TO
NEAR 750 MB. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHERE THE BEST MIXED LAYER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS OR
GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY ATTM
WITH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW
RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 40S CENTRAL AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE STATE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME AND SETS UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...DOWN TO -5C TO -11C FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO IOWA. WENT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH
CONTINUED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE GROWING DEGREE DAYS OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING LOWS IN THE 20S EARLIER THIS WEEK...LEFT
OUT ANY HEADLINES IN THIS LOCATION. FURTHER SOUTH...UPGRADED TO
FREEZE WARNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 EVEN THOUGH THE
INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR WAS BORDERLINE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO TREES/PLANTS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
20-25 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO 06Z SUNDAY.
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE MAYBE UP TO AROUND 850MB...SO MORE LIKELY A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO THAN RAIN. MIXING DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE A WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...MITIGATING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DID TWEAK THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL
PROVIDE YET MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
AS SHOWERS/LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA...FOCUS SWITCHED
TO STRONG WINDS FOR FRIDAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR BEYOND 13Z FRI
AT ALL TAF SITES. ANY MVFR SHOULD NOT BE PROLONGED. FM GROUPS
ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND INCREASES AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASES AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF ANYTHING...THESE WIND SPEEDS MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1153 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1152 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW
MOVING OUT OF NH AND INTO WESTERN ME. WE HAVE HAD NO DAMAGE
REPORTED WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS BUT DUAL POL KDP PRODUCT AS
WELL AS INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES SHOW VERY HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
BAND. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
ACROSS THE AREA WINDS HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS AS
WE HAVE SEEN THE PEAK OF THE WINDS AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEFT THE
FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOWARDS MORNING. HOWEVER...WE RECEIVED LESS RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT THAN FORECAST...AND PER CONVERSATIONS WITH THE
RIVER FORECAST CENTER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING RIVER FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED WITH THE 4
AM PACKAGE...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
ANALYZE.
850 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT
TOWARDS THE MID COAST AND CAPITAL DISTRICTS OF MAINE WHICH WILL
SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OF THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WAS NOTED ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS IS HELPING TO FUEL THE CONVECTIVE LINE NOW SURGING INTO
SOUTHERN NH. AHEAD OF THE LINE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ARE
BREAKING OUT.
THIS LINE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE IN MASSACHUSETT`S BUT
HAS BEEN QUIET THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. STILL WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON
IT WITH STRONG WINDS STILL MIXING TO THE GROUND. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MARCH EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AUGUSTA AND ENVIRONS
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER HEAVY DOWNPOUR IN SOME AREAS AND MAY
BE THE TIPPING POINT FOR SOME RIVERS TO TOP BANKFULL AND REACH
MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NOTCHES WHERE THE MOST RAIN
HAS FALLEN.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE ADVISORY REGION...BUT THERE ARE MANY OUTAGES REPORTED AND
WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. THAT SAID A FEW LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST DID REACH CRITERIA. ANTICIPATE LETTING THE
ADVISORIES/HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE ON TIME.
525 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AT COASTAL AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...COASTAL AND INTERIOR
YORK...AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES. RAP AS WELL AS HRRR INDICATE GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 8 PM. PORTLAND IS CURRENTLY NEARING SUSTAINED 35 MPH. MOST
SITES WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH GUSTS
HOWEVER. MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS IN THE MISO/MESOSCALE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
OVER- SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL
LOOKING FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WHITES. SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING
OFF IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 800 AND
900 PM WITH PRECIP LIFTING OUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
WINDS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PEAK DURING THE THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL BE CONTINUING HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON NORTHERN RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAM SOME OF WHICH WILL APPROACH BANKFULL RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING. THIS WILL NOT BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR
VARIABLE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
LOW PRESSURE MON-TUE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR AS COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS REGION. COOLER BUT DRY END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT. VFR ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH 4 AM. WIDELY SCT STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLY LOW END GALES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM
SURGE THIS EVENING RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, (1158 PM IN PORTLAND HARBOR).
MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE
PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BREEZY DAY IS STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY.
EXPANSIVE AND PV RICH UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THIS DURING THE SHORT
TERM IS THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DENOTED BY A 135KT NW
UPPER JET WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL FINALLY
CUT OFF THE PRECIP GENERATION.
WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
PRECIP AND THAT IS THE ENHANCED AREA OF PV DIVING SSE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SLOWLY PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SNOWING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE NOTED. THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MORNING
FROM FARGO/ELBOW LAKE DOWN TOWARD FAIRMONT. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES...THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL BE LIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL COME AS MIXING AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCU FIELD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING THAT
WILL START BREAKING UP IN WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SAID
CLEARING WORKING EVEN ACROSS WRN WI TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 750 MB...BUT THINK THIS WILL MAINLY BE VIRGA AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE CLOUDS BEING LIMITED BY THE INVERSION NEAR 750 MB.
FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COLD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES. H85 TEMPS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN -12C...WHICH IS NEAR OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DID TREND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDED UP KNOCKING 2 OR 3 DEGREES
OFF OF HIGHS FOR TODAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...RECORD LOWS AT
MSP/STC/EAU ARE 15/14/12 RESPECTIVELY...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BE
SAFE...THOUGH WE WILL GET TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF THOSE VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NOT TOO MANY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE TWO MINOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND BEING NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST EVENT IS BECOMING WEAKER FROM RUN TO RUN AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. CHANCE POPS
PREVAIL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A DECREASE IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HELD TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT...WITH FORCING FROM ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PASSES BEFORE THE RIDGE SPREADS IN. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT NOT THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRY AND LACKED
ANY SIGNIFICANT LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW IS STARTING TO PULL OUT IN WRN WI...WITH A WEDGE OF
CLEAR SKIES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH ERN NODAK HAS ANOTHER BURST OF -SN AND MVFR CIGS
HEADING DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD AXN/RWF. ADDED A VCSH AT
AXN FOR THE EARLY MORNING...BUT IF RADAR TRENDS DO NOT START TO
DIMINISH SOON..COULD BE MORE THAN A VCSH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRETTY ADAMANT THAT BY MID-MORNING...A BKN-OVC CU DECK WILL BE IN
PLACE AREA WIDE BETWEEN 030 AND 050. THIS CU FIELD WILL START
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE LOOK TO HAVE A DEEP AND WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EVEN THE BULLISH LAMP WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
LOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...THAT WILL KILL THE WINDS AND RESULT IN SKC SKIES.
KMSP...ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
OUTSIDE THREAT OF SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS LOOK TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE 30S...BUT COULD SEE GUSTS TO
AS HIGH AS 35 KTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. NW WIND 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
326 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1151 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the
northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region.
Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from
northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak
instability and this activity will continue into parts of our
northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into
synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most
of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be
out of our area by 00z.
Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with
humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but
stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses.
Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential
Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
536 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN-MON...BUT THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A BLOCKING
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO GREENLAND WILL CAUSE A
MEAN TROUGH TO RELOAD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY-- INCLUDING A
PARADE OF AT LEAST THREE DISTINCT WAVES THAT THE MODELS INDICATE
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CLOSED LOWS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES-- WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BECOME SHEARED AT THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH/FLOW. SUCH A PATTERN ALOFT YIELDS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVES THAT WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AND SOUTHWARD-
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN AND
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH FAIR-GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES--
INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A FOLLOWING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL NC
CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK
AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER WITH THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED FLAT/WEAK CHARACTER OF ANY
FRONTAL WAVES.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD RELATES TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE LAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
WILL SLOW AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...LIKE
THE PAST FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. SUCH A
SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A RE-INTRODUCTION OF RAIN TO AN OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC...AMIDST RENEWED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WOULD
CERTAINLY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENOUGH FLOW SEPARATION FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE SOUTHEAST - A
COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR (APR-MAY).
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND MORE IN THE 18-22KT RANGE.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING. IN
NEITHER CASE IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE THIS MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 10TH.
DAYGSORDUFAY
LOWLOWLOW
4/10242322
1985 1985 1996
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
415 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN-MON...BUT THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A BLOCKING
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO GREENLAND WILL CAUSE A
MEAN TROUGH TO RELOAD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY-- INCLUDING A
PARADE OF AT LEAST THREE DISTINCT WAVES THAT THE MODELS INDICATE
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CLOSED LOWS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES-- WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BECOME SHEARED AT THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH/FLOW. SUCH A PATTERN ALOFT YIELDS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVES THAT WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AND SOUTHWARD-
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN AND
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH FAIR-GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES--
INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A FOLLOWING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL NC
CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK
AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER WITH THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED FLAT/WEAK CHARACTER OF ANY
FRONTAL WAVES.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD RELATES TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE LAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
WILL SLOW AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...LIKE
THE PAST FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. SUCH A
SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A RE-INTRODUCTION OF RAIN TO AN OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC...AMIDST RENEWED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WOULD
CERTAINLY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENOUGH FLOW SEPARATION FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE SOUTHEAST - A
COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR (APR-MAY).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND MORE IN THE 18-22KT RANGE.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING. IN
NEITHER CASE IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
355 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING VENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...
THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RELOAD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LEAD S/W IN THIS LATEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHILE KINEMATICS WITH THE SYSTEM NOT TOO
SHABBY...MODEL CURRENTLY PREDICTING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY...SW FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER LOW LEVEL
MASS INTO CENTRAL NC...SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE MILD AIR WILL HANG AROUND FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING HAVE HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY 10-14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IF THE SFC HIGH OF 1030-1035MB VERIFIES LATE
WEDNESDAY AND A S/W APPROACHES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...COULD SEE A
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND MORE IN THE 18-22KT RANGE.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING. IN
NEITHER CASE IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...2
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...TREND OF PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE DELAYING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS...AND KEEP OUT
MENTION OF IFR CIGS FOR NOW AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CLOUDS
OBSCURING LOWER CLOUD IN IR IMAGERY SO DIFFICULT TO TIME IN
ARRIVAL. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INSISTENT ON BRINING
IN THOSE MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS. 00Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO
QUICK/TOO LOW WITH CLOUDS HOWEVER...SO LEANING MORE ON RAP AND
GFS.
HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND IR IMAGERY TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN
SERLY WINDS TO ABOUT 15KT FOR FRI AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO
RE-DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER SUNSET FRI BENEATH CAPPING
INVERSION. ANY PRECIP THREAT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SHORT TERM AND HI RES MODELS DEPICT A MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AND THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT BRO
AND HRL THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT MFE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL RISE BACK TO MVFR AFT 12Z WITH VFR RETURNING BY 17Z.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WHAT REMAINED OF THE COLD
FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AS SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE VALLEY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT...SO DRY AIR IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH TEMPS OUT
WEST JUMPING WELL INTO THE 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SFC MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS RETURNING. WITHOUT THE FOCUSING MECHANISM OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE BOTTLED UP AHEAD OF IT TO PRODUCE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT LIKE THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST.DAYTIME CU WILL BE
MORE ABUNDANT WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE REGION...WHILE CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO POUR IN OVERHEAD. THE H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BE
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST...WITH REASONABLE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF IT.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUILDING ON THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO RIGHT AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW...WITH FAVORABLE
STEERING WINDS TO POSSIBLY GET SOME OF THESE SHOWERS INTO ZAPATA AND
JIM HOGG COUNTIES TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A COUPLE OF MINOR
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL AID IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON MONDAY A DRYLINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LATER TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AND SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN EXIT THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING...SO MODEST SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...SO WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN CHECK...REACHING NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FOOT SWELLS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO AT TIME STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THIS PERIOD. LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53-SCHROEDER/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1139 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE
STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROP ABOVE A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING
CLOUDS.
WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN
CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS. DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO.
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
INTRUSION OFF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY
THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S
NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR FRIDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/EVENING. WINDS
WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY FOR A
SHORT TIME AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TODAY AND
QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS AND HARBORS...AND
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES OF WIND
EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 58 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 82 61 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 83 56 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 59 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 80 51 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 78 62 73 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FREEZE MAY OCCUR. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS TIGHT AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND IN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DIMINISHED MIXING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TIGHT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN AND SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE THIN WITH STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT AND
HIGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL END BY AROUND 13Z AS SHOWN
BY LATEST SPC HRRR. MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING W TO NW AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY
SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON THE GFS LAMP EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT. RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS
HELPED INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TODAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT NOTING THE INCREASED THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD WHICH
MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY BECAUSE OF FURTHER DRYING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Updated the forecast to increase chances of showers today and
added slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon ne of a
bloomington to Charleston/Mattoon to Lawrenceville line. Also
lower highs a few degrees over ne CWA with mid 40s there, and
increase cloud cover today. Not very spring like today with mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated to scattered rain showers and
even some graupel/sleet reports along and ne of I-74 this morning
at Altona and Normal. Windy with NW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of
30 to 40 mph. These stronger wind gusts still supported by bufkit
momentum transfer by the models despite the widespread low clouds.
Very large/strong upper level trof over Ontario, Greak Lakes
region and ohio river valley will continue to affect IL today.
Another embedded short wave near the MN/IA border to dive
southeast across central IL this afternoon and early evening and
keep isolated to scattered showers going over most of CWA with
highest pops ne of a Galesburg to Lincoln to Olney line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
An initial wave of showers early this morning will gradually shift
eastward toward Indiana this morning, as a surface trough departs.
We can not rule out some intermittent snow showers north of I-74
early this morning, but based on forecast soundings, the primary
precip type should remain liquid.
Previous model output indicated dry conditions behind the trough,
however, the latest HRRR and RAP updates are now indicating a
redevelopment of isolated showers this afternoon progressing from NW
to SE into our counties. The additional showers appear to be tied to
a shortwave evident on the water vapor satellite images over
northern MN. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we added
slight chances of showers in most of our counties. Very little QPF
is expected, with spotty areas actually seeing measurable rain of
0.01".
Bufkit analysis of mixing heights and momentum transfer show that
windy conditions will develop today. Sustained NW winds look to
climb to 20-30 mph by late morning, with gusts near 40 mph through
late afternoon.
High temps will be limited by the cold air advection pattern in
place today, as 850mb temps drop into the -5C to -9C range by
00z/7pm. Any heating from sunshine that does develop should cause
low level cumulus to quickly re-develop, along with spotty showers.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s north of I-74,
with upper 40s to around 50 in the rest of our forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
A couple of days remain in the northwesterly flow regime
over the Midwest. Chilly temps on the way tonight, behind a
shortwave that may bring some scattered showers late this evening.
Eroding clouds and a cold punch in the midlevels will drop overnight
lows into the 20s. Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight
into tomorrow morning. High pressure ridge axis slips over Central
Illinois tomorrow during the day as winds shift from northerly in
the morning...to southerly in the afternoon. These southerly winds
usher in a brief pd of WAA for the region. Temperatures warm for Sat
night and by Sunday, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are
expected...but mitigated somewhat by the next round of precip.
Concerned for the genesis of this system as it is in the wake of an
exiting upper level trof...in the midst of a pattern shift...mainly
zonal flow...but another wave is digging in over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF has started delaying the onset of precip...even if
the GFS and NAM are maintaining. Sunday precip may end up delaying
onset if the trend continues. Precip continues through Monday
morning, clearing throughout the day as the wave over the northern
Plains phases with another shortwave moving out of the SW, briefly
setting up weaker northwesterly flow. ECMWF and GFS showing a few
subtle differences after the pattern shift. For now, the forecast
remains dry through the end of the week, with temps slightly warmer
than climo...with a vigorous wave amplifying the trof over the SW
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
MVFR cigs have already reached PIA and BMI, with at least a few
hours of MVFR clouds expected to affect all the TAF sites earlier
this morning, as a cold front sweeps across the area bringing the
threat for some light rain. Upstream observations and forecast
soundings suggest cig bases around 1500 feet will gradually lift
to VFR later this morning as the cold front sweeps across the TAF
sites by 15z. Surface winds ahead of the boundary are already
westerly, and will shift more northwest in the wake of the cold
front. We look for wind speeds to increase into the 20 to 25 kt
range with gusts up to 33 kts at times through the mid afternoon
hours before a diminishing trend sets in after 01z. Skies will
clear out this evening, with winds finally diminishing below 10kt
after 06z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1031 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING/MID DAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BOTH WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER COVERAGE IS BEING AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DROP OFF IN NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN
NORTHEAST/FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FOR
AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST...KEYING ON ANOTHER STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER MN AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING THAT
SHOULD DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE IN SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE TRICKY AND DRIVEN BY INTENSITY WITH
SNOW AND EVEN GRAUPEL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY
SNOW. WITH LIMITED SHOWER RESIDENCE TIME...VARYING INTENSITY...AND
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A SLUSHY DUSTING TO
PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WILL FAVOR RAIN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL
WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN UNTIL SNOW MAY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
BY THIS EVENING WHEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES. FINALLY...HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
BEHIND THE SECOND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THIS EVENING THERE LOOKS
TO BE AN APPROXIMATELY TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS AND
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS.
RC/MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AS LOW PRESSURE HAS DUG SOUTH INTO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A LARGE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A VERY COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...PER -33 C AT THE KINL 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING....ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE ARE MARGINAL AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX (ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH THE MIX) WITH THIS
WAVE INITIALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THESE ECHOES
MOVE FARTHER EAST THEY WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY. KDLL
(WISCONSIN DELLS) HAS REPORTED 1SM VISIBILITY IN THE SNOW...AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TO
OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST IN A CLIPPER
LIKE FASHION. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 20S.
AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
KICK TO THEM. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED MENTION.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OR BRIEF STICKING SNOW THOUGH
ROADS AND AIR TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY WARM TO PREVENT ROAD ISSUES. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AS THE
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AREAS
FAVORED LOOK TO BE THE CHICAGO METRO AREA EASTWARD...AND IF THESE
LAST IN ANY ONE SPOT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THINGS WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
A FAVORABLE FETCH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IN THE EVENING...BUT LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS 850-700 RH DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DECENT
OMEGA IN NW INDIANA TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING
AND SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY STIFF AND THUS SOME SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS WELL.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION
COULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF SLEET
BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND THE WARM FRONT BLASTS ON
THROUGH. GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT DURING THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION
WHERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR BUT MODELS ARE PAINTING
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
646 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WITH IT WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY
IS HIGHER. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 2SM OR LESS WITH ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z-17Z. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS TRENDS EMERGE ITS POSSIBLE ANOTHER TEMPO FOR PRECIP
WILL BE NEEDED...PERHAPS IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR DURATION AND TIMING REMAINS LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THIS SNOW
MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AT RFD AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MENTION
THERE WITH LATER UPDATES. VISIBILITY UNDER 1SM IS LIKELY BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR OVERALL DURATION AS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY. SHORTENED TEMPO TO JUST 2 HRS
BUT FURTHER REFINEMENT SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
WESTERLY WINDS APPEAR TO STAY 10KTS OR LESS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE MID MORNING BUT THE
STRONGER WINDS NOW LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS INTO THE 30KT RANGE STILL LOOK ON TRACK...AS
WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WITH
THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
An initial wave of showers early this morning will gradually shift
eastward toward Indiana this morning, as a surface trough departs.
We can not rule out some intermittent snow showers north of I-74
early this morning, but based on forecast soundings, the primary
precip type should remain liquid.
Previous model output indicated dry conditions behind the trough,
however, the latest HRRR and RAP updates are now indicating a
redevelopment of isolated showers this afternoon progressing from NW
to SE into our counties. The additional showers appear to be tied to
a shortwave evident on the water vapor satellite images over
northern MN. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we added
slight chances of showers in most of our counties. Very little QPF
is expected, with spotty areas actually seeing measurable rain of
0.01".
Bufkit analysis of mixing heights and momentum transfer show that
windy conditions will develop today. Sustained NW winds look to
climb to 20-30 mph by late morning, with gusts near 40 mph through
late afternoon.
High temps will be limited by the cold air advection pattern in
place today, as 850mb temps drop into the -5C to -9C range by
00z/7pm. Any heating from sunshine that does develop should cause
low level cumulus to quickly re-develop, along with spotty showers.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s north of I-74,
with upper 40s to around 50 in the rest of our forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
A couple of days remain in the northwesterly flow regime
over the Midwest. Chilly temps on the way tonight, behind a
shortwave that may bring some scattered showers late this evening.
Eroding clouds and a cold punch in the midlevels will drop overnight
lows into the 20s. Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight
into tomorrow morning. High pressure ridge axis slips over Central
Illinois tomorrow during the day as winds shift from northerly in
the morning...to southerly in the afternoon. These southerly winds
usher in a brief pd of WAA for the region. Temperatures warm for Sat
night and by Sunday, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are
expected...but mitigated somewhat by the next round of precip.
Concerned for the genesis of this system as it is in the wake of an
exiting upper level trof...in the midst of a pattern shift...mainly
zonal flow...but another wave is digging in over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF has started delaying the onset of precip...even if
the GFS and NAM are maintaining. Sunday precip may end up delaying
onset if the trend continues. Precip continues through Monday
morning, clearing throughout the day as the wave over the northern
Plains phases with another shortwave moving out of the SW, briefly
setting up weaker northwesterly flow. ECMWF and GFS showing a few
subtle differences after the pattern shift. For now, the forecast
remains dry through the end of the week, with temps slightly warmer
than climo...with a vigorous wave amplifying the trof over the SW
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
MVFR cigs have already reached PIA and BMI, with at least a few
hours of MVFR clouds expected to affect all the TAF sites earlier
this morning, as a cold front sweeps across the area bringing the
threat for some light rain. Upstream observations and forecast
soundings suggest cig bases around 1500 feet will gradually lift
to VFR later this morning as the cold front sweeps across the TAF
sites by 15z. Surface winds ahead of the boundary are already
westerly, and will shift more northwest in the wake of the cold
front. We look for wind speeds to increase into the 20 to 25 kt
range with gusts up to 33 kts at times through the mid afternoon
hours before a diminishing trend sets in after 01z. Skies will
clear out this evening, with winds finally diminishing below 10kt
after 06z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
641 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT IOWA TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
WIND WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING TO
NEAR 750 MB. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHERE THE BEST MIXED LAYER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS OR
GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY ATTM
WITH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW
RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 40S CENTRAL AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE STATE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME AND SETS UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...DOWN TO -5C TO -11C FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO IOWA. WENT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH
CONTINUED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE GROWING DEGREE DAYS OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING LOWS IN THE 20S EARLIER THIS WEEK...LEFT
OUT ANY HEADLINES IN THIS LOCATION. FURTHER SOUTH...UPGRADED TO
FREEZE WARNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 EVEN THOUGH THE
INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR WAS BORDERLINE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO TREES/PLANTS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
20-25 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO 06Z SUNDAY.
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE MAYBE UP TO AROUND 850MB...SO MORE LIKELY A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO THAN RAIN. MIXING DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE A WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...MITIGATING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DID TWEAK THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL
PROVIDE YET MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRATUS MOVING
SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA THIS MORNING THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3 KFT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 KTS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1147 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A FEW
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOLER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE DRY... BUT MORE COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMP/TD/SKY/POPS GRIDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. HRRR FORECASTING ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS TO
SWING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MASS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4
HOURS AND THIS LINES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD
SEE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTWEST
MAINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES DOWN THE COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR BEGINNING FILTER INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SO
WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. ASIDE FROM A
FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530AM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AS THINGS
HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS FALLING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. YET.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING.
HOWEVER... ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION... LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED... ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINOR AS TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WENT
WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE COLDER AIR WILL BE FELT AS IT ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. REALLY IT IS JUST
THAT OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING ONE TRACKING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO AVOID ANY SNOW IN OUR AREA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE
TONIGHT AND WARMING GENERALLY INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED
BY A MODERATING TREND BY EARLY/MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITHOUT A DIRECT
INFLUENCE TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW
POINTS OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS OF TEENS AND 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD RELATIVELY
STEADY THEREAFTER AS A WARM FRONT AND CLOUD COVER APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SNOW AND RAIN...POSSIBLY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO BECOME HUNG UP IN OUR AREA...WITH RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EURO AND GGEM ARE THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE FRONT...HANGING IT BACK OVER OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS/NAM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE WORKS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS GONE VFR BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MOVES
THROUGH. SHOULD SEE THE ENTIRE AREA RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
EVENING.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY IN MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING
BUT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KT BUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS MAINLY
FOR THE LINGERING HIGH SEAS. WAVES OF 5 FT OR GREATER COULD LINGER
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED WITH A STRONG NW
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NART WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT HAS BEEN ANALYZED FOR FRIDAY`S MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. THE OUTPUT SUGGESTS LONG PERIOD NEAR SHORE SWELLS OF 9
OR 10 FEET WILL COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO
PRODUCE SOME SPLASH-OVER NEAR THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE.
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ON THIS CARIBOU.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY. ASTRO TIDE
WILL BE AT 11.7`. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE MINOR WITH MINIMAL
WAVE ACTION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BREEZY DAY IS STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY.
EXPANSIVE AND PV RICH UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THIS DURING THE SHORT
TERM IS THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DENOTED BY A 135KT NW
UPPER JET WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL FINALLY
CUT OFF THE PRECIP GENERATION.
WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
PRECIP AND THAT IS THE ENHANCED AREA OF PV DIVING SSE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SLOWLY PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SNOWING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE NOTED. THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MORNING
FROM FARGO/ELBOW LAKE DOWN TOWARD FAIRMONT. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES...THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL BE LIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL COME AS MIXING AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCU FIELD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING THAT
WILL START BREAKING UP IN WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SAID
CLEARING WORKING EVEN ACROSS WRN WI TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 750 MB...BUT THINK THIS WILL MAINLY BE VIRGA AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE CLOUDS BEING LIMITED BY THE INVERSION NEAR 750 MB.
FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COLD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES. H85 TEMPS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN -12C...WHICH IS NEAR OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DID TREND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDED UP KNOCKING 2 OR 3 DEGREES
OFF OF HIGHS FOR TODAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...RECORD LOWS AT
MSP/STC/EAU ARE 15/14/12 RESPECTIVELY...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BE
SAFE...THOUGH WE WILL GET TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF THOSE VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NOT TOO MANY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE TWO MINOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND BEING NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST EVENT IS BECOMING WEAKER FROM RUN TO RUN AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. CHANCE POPS
PREVAIL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A DECREASE IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HELD TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT...WITH FORCING FROM ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PASSES BEFORE THE RIDGE SPREADS IN. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT NOT THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRY AND LACKED
ANY SIGNIFICANT LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
BATCH OF SNOW OUT IN WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...REMAINING WEST OF MSP/STC. OUTSIDE OF THE
SNOW...ANTICIPATE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FAIRLY ROBUST
CU FIELD BETWEEN 030 AND 050 DEVELOPS BASED ON RAP AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STILL EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND WORK EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVENING. LAMP GUIDANCE FOR WINDS SPEEDS TODAY HAS GOOD
SUPPORT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RAP. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT...IT WILL MEAN A QUICK DROP OFF IN WIND
SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET.
KMSP...BASED ON THE HRRR/HOPWRF...EXPECT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WEST
OF MSP TO REMAIN WEST OF MSP THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN REST OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. NW WIND 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN-MON...BUT THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A BLOCKING
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO GREENLAND WILL CAUSE A
MEAN TROUGH TO RELOAD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY-- INCLUDING A
PARADE OF AT LEAST THREE DISTINCT WAVES THAT THE MODELS INDICATE
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CLOSED LOWS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES-- WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BECOME SHEARED AT THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH/FLOW. SUCH A PATTERN ALOFT YIELDS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVES THAT WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AND SOUTHWARD-
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN AND
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH FAIR-GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES--
INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A FOLLOWING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL NC
CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK
AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER WITH THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED FLAT/WEAK CHARACTER OF ANY
FRONTAL WAVES.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD RELATES TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE LAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
WILL SLOW AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...LIKE
THE PAST FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. SUCH A
SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A RE-INTRODUCTION OF RAIN TO AN OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC...AMIDST RENEWED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WOULD
CERTAINLY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENOUGH FLOW SEPARATION FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE SOUTHEAST - A
COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR (APR-MAY).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TODAY...THOUGH
IN THE 18-22KT RANGE AND NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN EITHER CASE TO BE MENTIONED
SPECIFICALLY IN THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z BEFORE A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS TURN BACK TO
WESTERLY.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE THIS MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 10TH.
DAYGSORDUFAY
LOWLOWLOW
4/10242322
1985 1985 1996
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1019 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AS EXPECTED...BOUNDARY SETTING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. VERY COLD AIR FUNNELING INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ON THE
SHORES OF NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED
ALONG WITH SOME FAIR STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED AS WELL.
STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER.
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 INDICATED A 30 TO 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR
INDICATED 6 TO 10 INCHES. DO NOT EXPECTED TO SEE...OR AT LEAST I
HOPE. WITH INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES...INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECTATIONS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS...DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAUPACA...SHAWANO...BROWN...
OUTAGAMIE...WINNEBAGO...CALUMET AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW. PARTS OF MANITOWOC AND BROWN
COUNTIES COULD SEE WIDE RANGES OF SNOW TOTALS...WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF BOTH COUNTIES.
ROAD TEMPERATURES LATE THIS MORNING WERE NEAR 40. HOWEVER...AIR
TEMPERATURES AT GREEN BAY DROPPED TO 30...SO SOME COOLING OF THE
ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW FALLING. ALWAY
TOUGH TO GAUGE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL STICK TO AREA ROADS.
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOWS FROM NEAR/JUST E OF AIG...SSEWD THROUGH EZS...TO ATW
AND THE FAR SW SIDE OF THE GRB AREA...TO CALUMET AND WRN MANITOWOC
COUNTIES. BUT THE SNOWS HAVE MAINLY BEEN W OF THIS AREA THUS FAR.
ALTHOUGH ROADS MAY BRIEFLY GET SLICK IN THIS AREA AS THE SNOW
BEGINS THIS MORNING...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHOULD WARM QUICKLY NOW THAT
THE SUN IS UP AND SNOW RATES WL PROBABLY BE LOW ENOUGH THIS
MORNING TO LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THE CONCERN IS FOR
THIS AFTN...WHEN COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS NOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN/ONTARIO SURGES SWWD INTO THE AREA. THAT WL PROBABLY
GENERATE ENOUGH COOLING TO TAKE AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30-32F
RANGE...AND GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SNOWFALL RATES...THAT COULD LEAD TO
AT LEAST SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADS IN ADDITION TO
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS. WL UPDATE THE FCST/SPS WITH THESE
IDEAS...BUT SINCE THE REAL IMPACT WOULD BE FOR THE AFTN
COMMUTE...WL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO WATCH SITN DEVELOP A LITTLE
LONGER BEFORE COMMITTING TO AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SNOW TODAY...THEN MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AMPLITUDE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS PEAKING...WITH A RIDGE NR
THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE MAIN CHANGE THAT
WL OCCUR DURING THE FCST PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE
POSITIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.
THAT WL DRAW THE CORE OF THE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES WITH THE ERN CONUS
TROF INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP. MOST
OF THE CONUS WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM...WHICH
THOUGH WEAK...WL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY.
TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN MODERATE...FINALLY REACHING AOA NORMAL
LEVELS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS TO END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS SORTING OUT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH COMPLEX SML
SCALE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA TDA. LEAD AREA OF PCPN HAS BEEN
ADVANCING EWD A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED...BUT IS NOW ABOUT
1/2 WAY INTO THE FCST AREA. THE SNOWFALL WAS PICKING UP ACRS THE
W...WITH 1-2SM VSBYS COMMON.
LEAD BAND OF SNOW WL SHIFT INTO ERN WI...THEN PROBABLY THIN/COME
TO A HALT AS MID-LVL IMPULSE NEARS THE AREA FM THE NW. THAT WL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP SFC WAVE ON COLD FRONT SAGGING
SWD THROUGH THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A SIGNIFICANT MESO-SCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO FORM NR THE
FRONT/APEX OF THE WAVE AS IT SHIFTS SSE THIS AFTN. FURTHERMORE...
PCPN NR THE WV IS LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE...WITH RAP/NAM
GENERATING 200-400 J/KG MUCAPES. THAT COULD EVEN YIELD SOME
LGT/THUNDER. SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW
WITH THE BAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME 3-6 INCH TOTALS WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE THOSE SNOWS WL OCCUR. AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WL BE LIMITED...PROBABLY ONLY A
COUNTY OR TWO WIDE. AND MODELS WERE NOT ALL IN SYNCH WITH WHERE
IT/S LOCATION. ACTUALLY DREW UP AN EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY FOR A
BAND FM SHAWANO COUNTY SWD TO WINNEBAGO/CALUMET. BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH IT YET AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD
IT MORE E FM GRB-MTW AND OTHER MODELS WERE FARTHER W ACRS ERN
MARATHON/PORTAGE COUNTIES.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS QUESTIONS ON THE IMPACT OF THE
SNOW. METRO-MODEL PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE FCSTS INDICATE ROADS
SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABV FREEZING BY AFTN...LIKELY LIMITING ANY
ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS TO JUST A SLUSHY BUILD-UP WHERE SNOW
FALLS HEAVILY ENOUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOW VSBYS IN THE HEAVY
SNOWSHOWERS COULD BE A FACTOR INCREASING THE IMPACT ON TRAVELERS.
THIS SITN WL BE BETTER HANDLED LIKE A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE EVENT
RATHER THAN A TYPICAL WINTER SNOW EVENT. RADAR NOT YIELDING AND
SOLID CLUES AS TO THE LCN OF THE SNOW BAND YET...SO OPTED TO RE-
ISSUE THE SPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITN ON
RADAR. MAY YET POST AN ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING IF THE LOCATION
OF THE SNOW BAND CAN BE PINNED DOWN WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE.
LAKE-EFFECT WL CONT IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT TNGT.
TRAJECTORIES NOT IDEAL...BUT BUMPED UP AMOUNT A BIT FROM PREV
FCST. OTHERWISE...QUIETER WX EXPECTED LATER TNGT INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT
SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE AT THE END OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK...WHEN THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND BREAKS
DOWN...FINALLY ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT CLIPPER TRAVERSES THE REGION.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...THETAE ADVECTION RAPIDLY RAMPS UP ACROSS THE STATE. DRY AIR
AIR BELOW 750MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
SATURATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PTYPE WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS ALL SNOW WITH AN INCH
OR TWO POSSIBLE BY 12Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR WILL BE SURGING IN ALOFT BY
THIS TIME...WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL WI. THIS TREND WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN WI NEAR
THE U.P. BORDER. AS A RESULT...AREAS OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WI
WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL CAPPED AT AROUND
AN INCH OR TWO. FAR NORTHERN WI COULD SEE HIGHER ACCUMS IN THE 2 TO
3 INCH RANGE. AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY 00Z MON. PERHAPS
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE BACK INTO FAR N-C WI ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THE UPPER
TROUGH...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY/BLUSTERY DAY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI. ONLY LOOKING AT MINOR
ACCUMS THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL
SEE THE START OF A WARMING TREND...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS COLDER OVER EASTERN WI THAN FARTHER WEST. CONTINUED DRY
THROUGH NEXT FRI WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY TURNING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
EXPECT A BAND OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND SETTING
UP ACRS THE AREA...FLANKED BY IFR/LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
W AND E. PLACEMENT OF POOREST CONDITIONS IS STILL IN DOUBT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ031-
037>039-048>050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ010>013-018>021-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS STARTED ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX
IN SOUTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. SEVERAL RAPIDLY MOVING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN IMPERIAL...RIVERSIDE...YUMA...AND LA
PAZ COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REFLECTED THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY
WHEN MANY STATIONS WERE IN THE TEENS.
THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTIVE
FLAREUPS TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO INDICATES
ONE MORE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SAME AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. INDEED...WE MOVED INTO WARNING OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER WE FINALLY STARTED SEEING SOME OF THE CELLS
STRENGTHEN INTO NEAR OR SEVERE CATEGORY.
LOW PRESSURE LOBE THAT HAS BROUGHT US WEATHER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW. THIS LOW
WILL SERVE AS ROUND TWO FOR THE REGION AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING AND ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL AND STILL COOLER
AIR...DROPPING THE HIGH TEMPS AS LOW AS THE 60S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THAT LOW PASSES
ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND IT AS IT
MOVES OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES. THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE SYSTEM LATER IN
THE WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR BY THEN.
SUFFICE TO SAY WE HAVE ENTERED AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM FROM OFF THE BAJA COAST FINALLY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF AZ LAST EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS AT 1 AM LOCATED BETWEEN PHOENIX AND TUCSON. THIS WAS BEST
SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE TIME. AND...COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS THE WALL OF MODERATELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.00 TO 1.30 INCHES. SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE PHOENIX AREA JUMPED FROM 21 DEG F AT 5 PM TO AROUND 46 DEG AT
9 PM...WITH RAIN STARTING 11 PM. THE 0.02 MEASUREMENT AT SKY HARBOR
AIRPORT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT FINALLY BROKE THE 66 DAY DRY STREAK...
WITH ANOTHER 0.17 FROM MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM. IN FACT LOTS OF RAIN FELL
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA RANGING FROM 0.01 TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES THROUGH
2 AM. THERE WERE MANY REPORTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.35 INCHES.
THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL SLIGHTLY OVER ARIZONA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RECENT GFS MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...COMPARED WITH THOSE FROM
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...DEFINITELY FCST MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...MORE C.A.P.E. APPEARS IN THE AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL END OVER
ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS AZ ON SUNDAY. MODERATELY STRONG 500/300 MB
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THEN SPREAD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN CONSIDERING LOTS OF
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FROM FRIDAYS PRECIP EVENT. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
YET ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY...TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CA AND AZ AS
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. THIS IS A COLDER STORM...AND MORE UNSTABLE...
THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END IN MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...EXCEPT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS PERIOD...PRODUCING WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW LEVELS
POTENTIALLY FALLING TO NEAR 5500 FEET...IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA
POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY. THE CAVEAT IS TIMING. RECENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE SCRAMBLED...INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
SYSTEM TIMING. THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS RANGING 8-10KFT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 6000 FEET WITH ANY STRONGER
RAIN SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND HEADINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO BREEZY W-SW HEADINGS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON AND
OFF INTO THE DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST VCSH MENTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON WHAT TIME DURING THE DAY THUNDER MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
TERMINALS...SO WILL LEAVE TS MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WITH A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH AZ EXPECT
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-
STORMS WITH FREQUENT CIGS RANGING FROM 8 TO 15K FT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPORARILY LOWERING TO 5 TO 7K FT DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS. BREEZY AND MOSTLY SW-W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 25
KTS AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z
AND COULD LAST UNTIL ABOUT 01 TO 02Z AFTER WHICH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY SUBSIDE. TONIGHT EXPECT
SKIES TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
EASTERLY IN THE PHX AREA WHILE THE WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH SHOULD
FAVOR THE WEST AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE ON MONDAY AND DECREASE TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK BECOMING FAIR TO GOOD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN BY FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 7 PM.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...WATERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
242 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE GREATER BAY
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LINGERS INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
RENEWED RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 PM PDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PER THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. QPF TOTALS STILL LOOK
LIGHT AND GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS NOT ALL AREAS WILL
SEE MUCH TOTAL RAINFALL. SO FAR THE CLOSEST LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WITH SOME ACTIVITY STARTING TO FIRE IN
THE SIERRA AS WELL...MEANWHILE DOWN IN THE DESERTS OF CA AND AZ
QUITE A LIGHTNING SHOW IS UNDERWAY AS A RESULT OF THE SAME UPPER
LOW. NEXT LOW IS OFFSHORE AND WILL APPROACH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AS THIS OCCURS MODELS WANT TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND KEEP ISOLATED T-STORM THREAT GOING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (SANTA CLARA TO MONTEREY).
NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT SATURDAY BUT JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO HAMPER OUTDOOR PLANS AND JUSTIFY KEEPING AN UMBRELLA HANDY.
SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY
EXPECT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SUNSHINE BREAKS THAT WILL
LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER
THE HILLS.
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL STAY OFFSHORE BEFORE MAKING A BEELINE TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. END RESULT SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDS. THE GFS IS FASTER AND THE EURO A
LITTLE SLOWER. ECMWF DID BACK OFF SLIGHTLY WITH INTENSITY ON
LATEST 12Z RUN AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MID-RANGE FORECAST WITH INTEREST
FOR ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT FRIDAY... A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL MERGE AND DRIVE
RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. GENERALLY INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
CEILINGS ASCEND AND DESCEND WITH CONVECTION WITHIN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. POCKETS AND HZ/BR AND VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO THE 5-6SM
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE DURING RAIN SHOWERS. STRONGER EMBEDDED STORM
CELLS IE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY UNTIL SATURDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO... -SHRA THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR. WINDS GENERALLY
ONSHORE UP TO 12KT THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...INTERMITTENT VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. -SHRA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1142 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. NEARER TO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS NOW PICKING UP SOME RETURNS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED PRECIP
STARTING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY DAYBREAK BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THIS WON`T OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT NOON OR SO.
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLN. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DELAYED ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNTIL NOON AND
BEYOND WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SO TIMING LOOKS
TO BE THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH (CORTEZ...DURANGO...PAGOSA
SPRINGS) SEEING PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MONTROSE...MOAB...GRAND
JUNCTION...I-70 CORRIDOR) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FROM MIDAFTERNOON
ONWARDS WHILE NORTHERN VALLEYS (VERNAL...RANGELY...CRAIG...STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES IN THE EVENING HOURS. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS INITIALIZE WITH
CURRENT PRECIP AND WILL MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY THROUGH
DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY REMAINS AS DOES SOME CAPE SO SOME ISOLD
TSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE DAY MOVES ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KT FEET OR SO...ABOVE THAT
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT.
SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH
MORE SPORADIC AND SPOTTY IN NATURE. MODELS DO FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-70 WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED PRECIP BUT EVEN SO...PLENTY OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
MODELS ARE PAINTING A DREARY WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE CWA JUST ABOUT EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. BETWEEN THESE
DISTURBANCES THE SUN MAY BREAK OUT FROM TIME TO TIME ONLY TO
RETURN TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE BREAKS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. GENERALLY SPEAKING...LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOKS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. MONDAY MORNING BRINGS A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
UNTIL ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING ROUND THREE OF PRECIP MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER THAT...A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOD COLD FRONT LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
SO THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LUCKILY
THESE SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY WARM SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EXPECT KDRO...KTEX...AND KCNY TO BE AFFECTED
FIRST WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS BEFORE 00Z. TIMING HAS YET AGAIN
SLOWED DOWN A BIT SO NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS TO REACH THE I-70
CORRIDOR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ILS BREAK POINTS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
FOR MOST TAF SITES BY 06Z TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WX...LOW CIGS AND
VIS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD AFTN TSRA WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE
STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROD ABOVE A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING
CIRRUS CLOUDS.
WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN
CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
INTRUSION OF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S
NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COOL MID-APRIL MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. METRO
AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. THIS
IS SOME 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO ENJOY
THE COOLER WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN. WE WILL WARM QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMS. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS
AT TIMES. WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT THEN SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN
ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS
AND HARBORS...AND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES
OF WIND EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
USHERING IN A COOLER BUT DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35% RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL JUST A BIT SHY OF 15 MPH...
ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 73 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 61 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 56 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 59 74 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 51 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 62 73 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS
AT TIMES. WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT THEN SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PREP DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016/
UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE
STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROD ABOVE A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING
CLOUDS.
WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN
CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO.
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
INTRUSION OFF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY
THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S
NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR FRIDAY EVERYONE!
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TODAY AND
QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS AND HARBORS...AND
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES OF WIND
EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 73 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 61 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 56 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 59 74 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 51 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 62 73 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
425 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
425 PM CDT
A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY
DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN
WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE
NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE
A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT
GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
404 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
304 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1257 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING/MID DAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BOTH WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER COVERAGE IS BEING AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DROP OFF IN NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN
NORTHEAST/FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FOR
AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST...KEYING ON ANOTHER STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER MN AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING THAT
SHOULD DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE IN SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE TRICKY AND DRIVEN BY INTENSITY WITH
SNOW AND EVEN GRAUPEL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY
SNOW. WITH LIMITED SHOWER RESIDENCE TIME...VARYING INTENSITY...AND
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A SLUSHY DUSTING TO
PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WILL FAVOR RAIN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL
WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN UNTIL SNOW MAY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
BY THIS EVENING WHEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES. FINALLY...HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
BEHIND THE SECOND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THIS EVENING THERE LOOKS
TO BE AN APPROXIMATELY TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS AND
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS.
RC/MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AS LOW PRESSURE HAS DUG SOUTH INTO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A LARGE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A VERY COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...PER -33 C AT THE KINL 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING....ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE ARE MARGINAL AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX (ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH THE MIX) WITH THIS
WAVE INITIALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THESE ECHOES
MOVE FARTHER EAST THEY WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY. KDLL
(WISCONSIN DELLS) HAS REPORTED 1SM VISIBILITY IN THE SNOW...AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TO
OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST IN A CLIPPER
LIKE FASHION. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 20S.
AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
KICK TO THEM. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED MENTION.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OR BRIEF STICKING SNOW THOUGH
ROADS AND AIR TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY WARM TO PREVENT ROAD ISSUES. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AS THE
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AREAS
FAVORED LOOK TO BE THE CHICAGO METRO AREA EASTWARD...AND IF THESE
LAST IN ANY ONE SPOT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THINGS WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
A FAVORABLE FETCH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IN THE EVENING...BUT LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS 850-700 RH DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DECENT
OMEGA IN NW INDIANA TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING
AND SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY STIFF AND THUS SOME SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS WELL.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION
COULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF SLEET
BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND THE WARM FRONT BLASTS ON
THROUGH. GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT DURING THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION
WHERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR BUT MODELS ARE PAINTING
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Updated the forecast to increase chances of showers today and
added slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon ne of a
bloomington to Charleston/Mattoon to Lawrenceville line. Also
lower highs a few degrees over ne CWA with mid 40s there, and
increase cloud cover today. Not very spring like today with mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated to scattered rain showers and
even some graupel/sleet reports along and ne of I-74 this morning
at Altona and Normal. Windy with NW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of
30 to 40 mph. These stronger wind gusts still supported by bufkit
momentum transfer by the models despite the widespread low clouds.
Very large/strong upper level trof over Ontario, Greak Lakes
region and ohio river valley will continue to affect IL today.
Another embedded short wave near the MN/IA border to dive
southeast across central IL this afternoon and early evening and
keep isolated to scattered showers going over most of CWA with
highest pops ne of a Galesburg to Lincoln to Olney line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
An initial wave of showers early this morning will gradually shift
eastward toward Indiana this morning, as a surface trough departs.
We can not rule out some intermittent snow showers north of I-74
early this morning, but based on forecast soundings, the primary
precip type should remain liquid.
Previous model output indicated dry conditions behind the trough,
however, the latest HRRR and RAP updates are now indicating a
redevelopment of isolated showers this afternoon progressing from NW
to SE into our counties. The additional showers appear to be tied to
a shortwave evident on the water vapor satellite images over
northern MN. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we added
slight chances of showers in most of our counties. Very little QPF
is expected, with spotty areas actually seeing measurable rain of
0.01".
Bufkit analysis of mixing heights and momentum transfer show that
windy conditions will develop today. Sustained NW winds look to
climb to 20-30 mph by late morning, with gusts near 40 mph through
late afternoon.
High temps will be limited by the cold air advection pattern in
place today, as 850mb temps drop into the -5C to -9C range by
00z/7pm. Any heating from sunshine that does develop should cause
low level cumulus to quickly re-develop, along with spotty showers.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s north of I-74,
with upper 40s to around 50 in the rest of our forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
A couple of days remain in the northwesterly flow regime
over the Midwest. Chilly temps on the way tonight, behind a
shortwave that may bring some scattered showers late this evening.
Eroding clouds and a cold punch in the midlevels will drop overnight
lows into the 20s. Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight
into tomorrow morning. High pressure ridge axis slips over Central
Illinois tomorrow during the day as winds shift from northerly in
the morning...to southerly in the afternoon. These southerly winds
usher in a brief pd of WAA for the region. Temperatures warm for Sat
night and by Sunday, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are
expected...but mitigated somewhat by the next round of precip.
Concerned for the genesis of this system as it is in the wake of an
exiting upper level trof...in the midst of a pattern shift...mainly
zonal flow...but another wave is digging in over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF has started delaying the onset of precip...even if
the GFS and NAM are maintaining. Sunday precip may end up delaying
onset if the trend continues. Precip continues through Monday
morning, clearing throughout the day as the wave over the northern
Plains phases with another shortwave moving out of the SW, briefly
setting up weaker northwesterly flow. ECMWF and GFS showing a few
subtle differences after the pattern shift. For now, the forecast
remains dry through the end of the week, with temps slightly warmer
than climo...with a vigorous wave amplifying the trof over the SW
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated to scattered rain showers will occur this afternoon over
central IL along with a chance of GS (small graupel) along I-74
at BMI and CMI into mid afternoon. Already had recent reports of
this graupel/sleet smaller than peas in Bloomington/Normal area.
One short wave with its scattered showers moving east of I-55
while a 2nd short wave in eastern IA and nw IL already has its
scattered rain showers spreading se toward the IL river early this
afternoon. These showers will spread se over rest of central IL
this afternoon and could even affect as far sw as SPI, though
coverage more isolated sw at SPI. 1008 mb surface low pressure
over sw lower MI has tight pressure gradient over IL today and wnw
winds 15-23 kts and gusts of 25-33 kts expected rest of today.
Wind gusts of 17-23 kts still linger this evening after sunset
before diminishing overnight. Broken to overcast clouds of 2.5-5k
ft to occur this afternoon and early evening, and scatter out from
nw to se between 02-05Z. Lighter winds and fair skies expected on
Saturday morning as 1033 mb Canadian high pressure over
Sasketchewan settles over central IL by 18Z Sat and weakens to
1027 mb.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AROUND
081900Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORTICITY CENTER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE...SO WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO
INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS 020-040 EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 280-300 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO VEER A BIT AFTER DARK MORE TOWARDS
300-320 DEGREES...BUT GUSTS OVER 20 KTS STILL PROBABLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AROUND
081900Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORTICITY CENTER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE...SO WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO
INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS 020-040 EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 280-300 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO VEER A BIT AFTER DARK MORE TOWARDS
300-320 DEGREES...BUT GUSTS OVER 20 KTS STILL PROBABLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST HAS OCCURRED.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO ILLINOIS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA IS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING.
TRENDS WITH THE RAP MODEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW SQUALL
TOOL INDICATES INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADVECT AND DEVELOP
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. THE GROUND MAY BRIEFLY HAVE A HUE
OF WHITE TO IT UNDER THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN IS MORE EXPANSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NW FLOW WAS USHERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CWA. LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AND THE FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF MARCH WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES FOR
VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
CONTINUED H5 NW FLOW WILL BRING WAVES THROUGH THE AREA. ONE WAVE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. H85 FLOW HAS NEAR 40 KTS FOR THE
AREA. WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA. SPECTRAL
MODELS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
SUSTAINED RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFR DATA...THIS MAY BE TOO LOW. THINK
THAT IF WE GET MORE SUNLIGHT THAN FORECAST WE COULD REACH
CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADVISORY BASED ON
TRENDS IF ONE IS NEEDED. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE DAY CREW THAT
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S CWA WIDE AND WILL
LEAD TO FREEZE ISSUES. AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE WHOLE CWA. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DUE TO
THE TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS.
THE WARNING GOES FROM 06Z SAT TO 14Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF SHARP DAY TO DAY
TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF SUNDAY WARM UP...A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. APRIL SUNSHINE AND AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY ONLY
IN THE TEENS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSER TO THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW...INITIALLY STRONGER ALOFT...SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE ON A 50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WIND FOCUSES
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND POSSIBLY NE LATE WITH A
SUGGESTION OF WEAKER SUPPORT IN THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE THUS KEPT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS LATE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER THERE AS WELL. DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS MAY LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MORNING AFTER AN
INITIALLY DIP IN THE EVENING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON S-SW WINDS FROM 15 TO
25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY KEPT HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED
MAINLY ON THE FRONT...THESE HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL. WHILE LACKING IN
THE GFS...THE NAM DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT MUCAPES DURING THE DAY TO KEEP
A MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR THEN FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WED AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS RETURN
TO THE 40S AND 50S MON AND TUE...THEN 50S FOR WED. MONDAY NIGHT/S
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN THE PROGGED -4 TO -8 RANGE...AND MAY AGAIN
NEED TO HOIST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. AN ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WHERE HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S WITH LOWS HELD IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00Z/09 PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/09. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z
TAFS...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST OF A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS. AFT 00Z/09 VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT IOWA TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
WIND WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING TO
NEAR 750 MB. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHERE THE BEST MIXED LAYER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS OR
GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY ATTM
WITH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW
RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 40S CENTRAL AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE STATE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME AND SETS UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...DOWN TO -5C TO -11C FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO IOWA. WENT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH
CONTINUED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE GROWING DEGREE DAYS OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING LOWS IN THE 20S EARLIER THIS WEEK...LEFT
OUT ANY HEADLINES IN THIS LOCATION. FURTHER SOUTH...UPGRADED TO
FREEZE WARNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 EVEN THOUGH THE
INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR WAS BORDERLINE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO TREES/PLANTS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
20-25 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO 06Z SUNDAY.
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE MAYBE UP TO AROUND 850MB...SO MORE LIKELY A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO THAN RAIN. MIXING DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE A WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...MITIGATING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DID TWEAK THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL
PROVIDE YET MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CEILINGS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO UNRESTRICTED
CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNRESTRICTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE. GOOD
AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1129 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST HAS OCCURRED.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO ILLINOIS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA IS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING.
TRENDS WITH THE RAP MODEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW SQUALL
TOOL INDICATES INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADVECT AND DEVELOP
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. THE GROUND MAY BRIEFLY HAVE A HUE
OF WHITE TO IT UNDER THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN IS MORE EXPANSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NW FLOW WAS USHERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CWA. LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AND THE FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF MARCH WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES FOR
VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
CONTINUED H5 NW FLOW WILL BRING WAVES THROUGH THE AREA. ONE WAVE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. H85 FLOW HAS NEAR 40 KTS FOR THE
AREA. WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA. SPECTRAL
MODELS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
SUSTAINED RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFR DATA...THIS MAY BE TOO LOW. THINK
THAT IF WE GET MORE SUNLIGHT THAN FORECAST WE COULD REACH
CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADVISORY BASED ON
TRENDS IF ONE IS NEEDED. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE DAY CREW THAT
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S CWA WIDE AND WILL
LEAD TO FREEZE ISSUES. AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE WHOLE CWA. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DUE TO
THE TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS.
THE WARNING GOES FROM 06Z SAT TO 14Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF SHARP DAY TO DAY
TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF SUNDAY WARM UP...A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. APRIL SUNSHINE AND AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY ONLY
IN THE TEENS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSER TO THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW...INITIALLY STRONGER ALOFT...SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE ON A 50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WIND FOCUSES
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND POSSIBLY NE LATE WITH A
SUGGESTION OF WEAKER SUPPORT IN THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE THUS KEPT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS LATE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER THERE AS WELL. DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS MAY LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MORNING AFTER AN
INITIALLY DIP IN THE EVENING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON S-SW WINDS FROM 15 TO
25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY KEPT HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED
MAINLY ON THE FRONT...THESE HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL. WHILE LACKING IN
THE GFS...THE NAM DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT MUCAPES DURING THE DAY TO KEEP
A MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR THEN FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WED AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS RETURN
TO THE 40S AND 50S MON AND TUE...THEN 50S FOR WED. MONDAY NIGHT/S
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN THE PROGGED -4 TO -8 RANGE...AND MAY AGAIN
NEED TO HOIST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. AN ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WHERE HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S WITH LOWS HELD IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION. SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 AND EVEN 40 KTS. MOST OF THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH...SO SITES WITHOUT N/S RUNWAYS WILL LIKELY FACE CROSSWINDS
THAT COULD MAKE OPERATIONS DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR GENERAL
AVIATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON
CLEARING).
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER
WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH
MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY
AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN
OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE
3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE
LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE
EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/
EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR
THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT
WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA
SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24-
48 HRS.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE
70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT.
WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGLD BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTS INT TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE WITH PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
COLD FRONT MIGRATING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING CHICAGO. BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PLAGUE ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES WHERE MOISTURE
CAN LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY NEAR JKL/SJS. DRIER AIR
WILL SWEEP INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...LIFTING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR CRITERIA. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE THESE DIMINISH INTO THIS
EVENING AS VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL THEN AGAIN PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH AN APPRECIABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
356 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT
500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO
PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING
LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300
PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES.
STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING
DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR
TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY
00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE
50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. BY TONIGHT...A LOT OF THE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT
KHYR...WHERE SNOW SQUALLS PUSHING SOUTHWARD OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THIS EVENING. VFR WILL THEN TAKE
HOLD OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 10 40 20
INL 7 34 25 41 / 10 20 40 40
BRD 15 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10
HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30
ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ002>004.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BREEZY DAY IS STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY.
EXPANSIVE AND PV RICH UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THIS DURING THE SHORT
TERM IS THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DENOTED BY A 135KT NW
UPPER JET WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL FINALLY
CUT OFF THE PRECIP GENERATION.
WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
PRECIP AND THAT IS THE ENHANCED AREA OF PV DIVING SSE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SLOWLY PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SNOWING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE NOTED. THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MORNING
FROM FARGO/ELBOW LAKE DOWN TOWARD FAIRMONT. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES...THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL BE LIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL COME AS MIXING AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCU FIELD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING THAT
WILL START BREAKING UP IN WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SAID
CLEARING WORKING EVEN ACROSS WRN WI TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 750 MB...BUT THINK THIS WILL MAINLY BE VIRGA AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE CLOUDS BEING LIMITED BY THE INVERSION NEAR 750 MB.
FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COLD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES. H85 TEMPS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN -12C...WHICH IS NEAR OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DID TREND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDED UP KNOCKING 2 OR 3 DEGREES
OFF OF HIGHS FOR TODAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...RECORD LOWS AT
MSP/STC/EAU ARE 15/14/12 RESPECTIVELY...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BE
SAFE...THOUGH WE WILL GET TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF THOSE VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NOT TOO MANY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE TWO MINOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND BEING NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST EVENT IS BECOMING WEAKER FROM RUN TO RUN AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. CHANCE POPS
PREVAIL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A DECREASE IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HELD TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT...WITH FORCING FROM ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PASSES BEFORE THE RIDGE SPREADS IN. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT NOT THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRY AND LACKED
ANY SIGNIFICANT LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCITED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND DISSIPATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEY ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS.COULD SEE ANOTHER ONE
HALF INCH IN AREAS SEEING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION -SHSN NEAR KSTC AND KMSP FOR A COUPLE HOURS YET. THEN WE
SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTERED OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY WEDGE
WORKED ACROSS WC WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL
IN WITH VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME -SHSN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN AREA AS WELL. CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATE. GUSTY N-NW WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME SE AND INCREASE/GUSTY ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN
PORTION OF THE FA LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
BAND OF -SHSN DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. LOW END VFR CIGS LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHTINTO
SAT. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. N-NW WINDS GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT AND SE AND INCREASING INTO
SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. NW WIND 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...00z Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease quickly early this evening as the sun begins to set, with
light winds expected during the overnight hours. Winds will become
easterly by morning, and then start to increase out of the
southeast tomorrow by mid day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus should weaken quickly this evening
which will begin to set the stage for a very cold night. Hard freeze
still expected for basically the entire bi-state region due to a
clear sky...very low dewpoints (m/u teens)...and NW winds which will
lighten up to aob 5 knots late tonight with approach of sfc ridge.
Forecast lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most
locations. Coldest locations will be across northeast Missouri where
low 20s are possible. Warmest area will be within portions of St.
Louis due to urban heat island effect. The combination of the
magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8
hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than
previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops
are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed
given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below
freezing.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
(Saturday)
Unseasonably cold conditions will continue on Saturday. What will
look like a nice April day will feel quite chilly with highs only in
the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west across the area. Winds will
initially be light/variable but turn to the southeast by afternoon
as sfc ridge departs into the Ohio River Valley.
(Saturday Night - Monday)
Northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal pattern
by Saturday night. A more unsettled and wet pattern will result
heading toward Sunday and into Monday. A cold front will come in
from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and push through the CWA by
late Monday morning. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms
(particularly for central MO) are likely associated with this
frontal passage. GFS/ECMWF diverge a bit on Monday with track of
impulse coming out of the southwest. ECMWF is a bit further north
and would keep rain going north of the cold front well into Monday
which would also lead to cooler high temperatures than currently
forecast. ECMWF is further to the south with this feature and does
not have stratiform rain as far north. For now...went with a blend
of the two model camps.
(Monday Night - Next Friday)
Behind the Monday system...another fairly cold airmass for mid April
standards (though not looking as cold as this one coming in now) is
in the offing. Models bring 850-hPa temps below zero once again and
becoming a bit more concerned that another freeze is likely Monday
night/Tuesday morning...especially for areas north of I-70. Timing
of sfc ridge will once again be key...but upper 20s once again a
possibility for portions of northeast Missouri.
Unseasonably cold weather looks to remain in place Tuesday/Tuesday
night as mid/upper levels become more blocked with a sfc ridge
anchoring itself from the Great Lakes southwestward through the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Low temperatures will once again flirt with the
freezing mark for most areas on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday...slowly moderating temperatures are expected through
the rest of the work week along with continued dry weather. Near
normal temperatures are expected by next Friday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 31 51 46 65 / 5 0 10 50
Quincy 23 48 42 64 / 5 0 20 60
Columbia 28 54 47 67 / 5 0 20 50
Jefferson City 27 56 48 69 / 5 0 20 50
Salem 27 48 39 64 / 10 0 10 50
Farmington 27 53 42 66 / 5 0 20 40
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern
Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds.
This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to
drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area,
including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures
could drop into the mid 20s. Expanded the freeze warning a bit
further south into the KC metro where temperatures could drop to
near or below 30 degrees, particularly in outlying areas of these
counties. Also introduced a frost advisory further south. Dewpoints
may be a bit too low to actually get frost, so this is more of a
heads up to a scattered light freeze across these areas especially
now that the growing season is getting well underway for some
orchards, nurseries etc.
High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds
around from the southeast. Without much warm air advection in this
pattern temperatures on Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s
readings. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep
temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Developing warm air advection Saturday night into early Sunday could
spark a few showers or storms, though the presence of some capping
and lack of focused forcing along the low-level jet could act against
too much precipitation through this time. Therefore kept
precipitation chances limited to slight chance/low chance. Better
rain chances will arrive with a cold front Sunday afternoon and
evening. May need to watch for a few strong storms along the front,
especially south of the Missouri River, but thick clouds through the
day may keep instability too low for much severe weather.
Cold front will sag south of the forecast area Sunday night, when an
increasing low-level jet will feed into the front and likely result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for
locally heavy rain. Models remain in agreement that this will occur
to the south along the I-44 corridor, but will need to keep an eye on
this since slower movement of the front could shift this rain axis
further north.
Split upper flow and extensive low-level ridging will keep the rest
of the forecast dry through Friday. High pressure building into the
region will likely bring another freeze to parts of the area Monday
night, followed by warmer conditions for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102-103.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-104-105.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-038>040-044>046.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ037-043-053-
054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Northwest flow is continuing across the forecast area today,
however the pressure gradient is much weaker than yesterday and
winds have not been as strong. It has been gusty enough when
combined with humidity levels in the 20s to mid 30s for some red
flag conditions to develop this afternoon, but this should improve
by early evening as wind speeds lighten even more with a surface
ridge building in.
Main short term forecast focus will be with frost and freeze
potential tonight and then in the extended period...shower and thunderstorm
chances from Saturday night into Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
For tonight, surface high pressure will push into the area from
the north/northeast and with a clear sky, light wind and dry air
mass, will see temperatures drop into the upper 20s northeast to
upper 30s southwest tonight. Overall, have lowered temperatures
slightly from previous forecast as model temperatures were all on
the decline from previous runs. Thus, will be expanding the freeze
warning slightly to the west and have also added in a frost
advisory for a tier or two of counties west of the freeze warning.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and
a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west-
southwest flow. Also, the departing surface ridge and low pressure
developing in the plains will allow for increased low level warm
advection. The gusty winds on Saturday will allow for some
elevated fire weather conditions to develop during the day.
Temperatures will be the warmest out west where upper 60s to
low 70s will be possible. Further east, still looking at mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Warm advection pattern will be in full swing by Saturday night and
with upper level shortwave energy moving through, will see the
potential for some showers and isolated thunder. A northern stream
shortwave will help to push a surface front into the area late
Sunday and through the area on Sunday night, while upper energy
will also shift across the area while the front moves through.
Gulf moisture values will have increased by this time to where a
good one to two inches of rain will be possible, with the higher
amounts across the southern CWA. Still not overly impressed with
the severe chances given the fairly weak instability expected, but
will maintain strong to potentially severe wording in the forecast
for the day 3 (Sunday-Sunday night) time frame.
Precipitation should exit the area by Tuesday with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the week. After an initial cool down
behind this next system, temperatures should warm back into the
60s and 70s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
068>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-106.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ067-078-079-
089-090-094-095-102>105.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, and
will consist of periods of broken stratocu this afternoon with
bases above 5kft and then clear skies tonight and Saturday. Gusty
northwest winds with gusts of 32-35 kts will prevail this
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing this evening and
especially overnight as high pressure settles into the area.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 52 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Generally quiet aviation weather for the next 36 hours. Gusty
northwest winds will decrease later this afternoon, with a gradual
veering to southeasterly through Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as
clear skies and gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon and
evening. Winds will subside overnight and begin to switch to the
east southeast by morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>091-094>096-102>105.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
High pressure will make its way into the region through the day
today with gusty northwesterly surface winds expected through
this evening. A few high level clouds will move over the region
but no limitations to visibilities or ceilings will occur
overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Winds overnight
will be light out of the northeast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
606 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness will continue to drop southeastward
through UIN and the St Louis metro area today. There may be
isolated showers in UIN this afternoon and possibly also in the St
Louis metro area as well, but the probability is too low to
include in the tafs. Strong and gusty northwest winds can be
expected today, then diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves over the taf sites late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloudiness today, then
clear tonight. It appears that any showers will be north and east
of St Louis this afternoon. Strong and gusty northwest winds today
will diminish tonight.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day, even as clear skies
give way to some scattered but high-based cu development later this
afternoon. Winds will once again be gusty out of the northwest during
the daylight hours, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 20 kts and
gusts to 30 kts at times. Winds will begin to drop off after sunset,
becoming light and variable by early Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Strong northwest flow was positioned over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. This will bring gusty northwest breezes
at the surface today, with some gusts approaching 30 mph at times.
Due to a dry airmass in place, this will create conditions that
are conducive to a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires.
This cool air advection will limit afternoon highs from warming
out of the low to mid 60s today.
This Canadian airmass will also bring freezing temperatures to the
eastern Ozarks tonight. A Freeze Warning has been posted for areas
along and northeast of a line from Versailles to Eminence
Missouri. Look for readings to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures at or slightly above freezing are expected for the
rest of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
A warm front will lift back through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas on Saturday, helping to boost temperatures back
in to the low 70s. Further east, readings may only reach the
middle to upper 50s, as this region remains on the cool side of
the front. Despite this warm front, there doesn`t appear to be
much of a precipitation signal on Saturday.
Gulf moisture continues to increase Saturday night and Sunday,
setting the stage for decent period of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday. We could see rain amounts up to two
inches over southern Missouri.
We can not totally rule out some organized storms Monday.
Instability appears to be limited, but plenty of shear could make
up for it. We will maintain a limited risk for severe storms.
A cool and dry airmass will spread back into the Ozarks for
Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to a large ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west.
This high pressure will warm temperatures back into the 70s by
next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ056>058-
069>071-082-083-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
326 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated light showers have shifted east of the forecast area early
this morning with cloud cover mainly across northeast MO and west
central IL. It appears that most of the precipitation will be east
of the forecast area this morning, but there may be at least
isolated light showers across parts of northeast MO and west central
and southwest IL this afternoon as weak northwest flow shortwaves
continue moving southeastward through the area along with relatively
cold mid level temperatures associated with the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region upper level trough. Most of the operational models
and high resolution models depict light QPF across this area with
isolated to scattered showers. Cooler high temperatures can be
expected today compared to yesterday with the coldest temperatures
across northeast MO and west central IL where the most cloud cover
is forecast along with the strongest low level cold air advection
this afternoon and lowest 850 mb temperatures. High temperatures
today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Convection allowing models continue to show isolated to widely
scattered showers this evening over Illinois, so have kept slight
chance PoPs going through 03Z. Should see anything lingering after
that dry out really quickly as significantly drier air rushes in
with a cold Canadian airmass. Speaking of cold, will upgrade freeze
watch for tonight to freeze warning for the entire area. Should see
temperatures start to get below freezing between 07-08Z from north
to south across the area...bottoming out in the mid 20s across
northeast Missouri an west central Illinois up to the upper 20s and
low 30s in along and south of the I-70 corridor. Freeze warning
will run from 200 AM until 800 AM.
Saturday should be cool and quiet as the Canadian high transits the
area, but should see increasing clouds and moderating
temperatures Saturday night as the wind turns back around to the
south-southwest. Low level moisture is expected to increase rapidly
Saturday night and Sunday in this pattern, and a clipper-like system
will skirt the U.S.-Canadian border during this time. The elongated
surface trof on the trailing end of the clipper will move into
Missouri Sunday night and push southeast through the area by 00Z
Tuesday. Models are kicking out some respectable QPF values with
this frontal passage...though I like the ECMWF`s QPF better than the
GFS`s. GFS QPF looks contaminated with grid-scale convective
feedback at 18Z Monday and beyond. Have high PoPs for Sunday
through Monday...tapering off Monday night. That may even be too
slow if the ECMWF is right and there`s no precip behind the front.
High amplitude upper level pattern redevelops for the remainder of
next week with a trof over the eastern CONUS and a ridge to our
west. The surface ridge looks to lay right across us for much of
the week. This should provide the area with cool temperatures and
dry weather.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 55 31 51 44 / 10 10 0 20
Quincy 50 26 49 42 / 20 20 0 20
Columbia 58 30 55 46 / 10 10 5 20
Jefferson City 58 30 57 48 / 10 10 5 20
Salem 53 30 48 40 / 20 20 0 10
Farmington 56 30 53 42 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
Dry and breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon;
however, the approach of surface high pressure currently over the
central High Plains and the translation of the upper jet east of the
forecast area should keep wind speeds below advisory criteria this
afternoon in spite of the lingering tight surface pressure gradient.
Weaker mixing should also help dewpoints from falling much out of
the upper 20s, keeping relative humidity just high enough to avoid a
red flag warning again this afternoon, but have still issued an SPS
for elevated fire danger since conditions will be rather close to
that critical threshold.
Surface high pressure will continue to expand and travel eastward
tonight, arriving at an inopportune overnight time period for area
plants. As surface winds diminish and cold midlevel air slides down
the back side of the upper trough, temperatures are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 20s north of the MO River, prompting the
issuance of a freeze warning for late tonight through Saturday
morning in areas that will see more than a brush with below freezing
temperatures. Further to the west and south, winds should stay non-
zero and temperatures aloft will be a touch warmer, keeping surface
temperatures out of the basement even during the early morning hours
Saturday.
Quick recovery is expected Saturday under abundant sunshine and
building temperatures aloft, especially as southerly flow begins to
return during the afternoon, so many need to consider further
bumping up highs especially in our west and south if the pattern
continues to trend this quickly back to warmth. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the period as southwest winds increase in response to
an approaching shortwave trough, but cloud cover could slow diurnal
rises during the afternoon and keep highs from reaching the 80
degree mark again even across our far west where the thermal ridge
will position late in the day. A few isolated storms will become
possible as early as Sunday morning when the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens across the forecast area, and will become increasingly
possible along and ahead of the approaching shortwave trough/cold
front Sunday evening. Lapse rates currently do not look impressive
enough to be very concerned with the severe potential, but as is
usually the case in the early spring, deep layer shear will be
impressive; so will continue to monitor the severe potential
especially across far southern portions of the CWA where some
midlevel cooling could improve lapse rates to a point supportive of
more robust updrafts late in the evening.
Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the beginning of the work
week and will not fully recover until the end of the forecast period
when the series of upper troughs following behind the Sunday system
finally depart off to the east. No additional rainfall is expected
after Sunday`s front moves out, leaving the rest of the forecast
period fairly quiet, provided nights can stay warm enough to keep
low temperatures above the freezing mark and afternoons cool enough
to prevent critically low humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.
MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-030>033-039-040-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1151 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will continue to
weaken and fade but will also continue to be supported weakly
aloft. However, the best chances for these showers should remain
to the east for early Friday morning and exiting thereafter. Winds
will pick up once again by late morning on Friday and continue
until around sunset in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts
expected at most sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Friday. After lighter winds overnight, northwesterly winds will
become gusty again Friday but not as strong as Thursday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
The prevailing TAF period will remain VFR. Gusty afternoon winds
have decreased and will remain light overnight with clear skies.
Scattered cumulus clouds will develop by tomorrow afternoon and winds
will once again become gusty as diurnal mixing allows high momentum
winds to reach the surface. Once diurnally driven mixing ends...winds
will once again decrease, becoming light after 01-02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Gusty northwesterly winds will gradually subside this evening.
Otherwise pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals.
Northwesterly winds will become gusty again Friday but not as
strong as today.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through 01-02Z before decreasing below
12 kts as boundary layer decouples. Skies will clear overnight but
scattered cu will develop again by late tomorrow morning. Another day
with another forecast inverted-V sounding means that higher momentum
winds will once again be able to mix down to the surface tomorrow
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 kts...gusting 25-30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR conditions and W-NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF
sites thru the valid period. Diurnal showers will fade quickly
after sunset along with wind gusts, but winds should pick up once
again by late morning on Friday and continue until around sunset
in the evening, with gusts as high as 30kts expected at most
sites.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the
northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region.
Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from
northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak
instability and this activity will continue into parts of our
northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into
synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most
of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be
out of our area by 00z.
Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with
humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but
stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses.
Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential
Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
220 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...08/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE OFFSHORE REX BLOCK THAT BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO THE MEDFORD
CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAS BROKEN...BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL SET
UP FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OFFSHORE IS NOW OVER THE AREA...BUT
A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEAR 35N 135W. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA HAS
TURNED SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. IT IS EARLY FOR THIS TYPE OF MOISTURE...BUT THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY FOR MEDFORD ALSO CAME VERY EARLY...EARLIER THAN EVER
BEFORE AS A MATTER OF FACT.
THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AFTER A HOT SPELL USUALLY MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT. JUST WHERE THAT AREA WILL BE IS PROVING TO BE A MAJOR
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
TODAY ISN`T LOOKING GOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW THE MOST
INSTABILITY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CASCADES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR AT THIS TIME. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT KMFR SHOWED 0.66
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS LESS
NOW. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. SPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF NON-
THERMAL FORCING. THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE MUCH OF ANYTHING...JUST A
FEW CELLS OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTY.
SO...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES GET GOING WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A LACK OF
NON-THERMAL FORCING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE MEDFORD CWA. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECORDS MAY STILL BE SET TODAY...BUT THEY WON`T BE SHATTERED THE
WAY THEY WERE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL SET UP TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EASTERLY...BUT IT WILL NOT
CUT OFF THE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL JUST PUSH
THE TRAJECTORY FARTHER EAST.
THIS WILL PUSH THE HOT SPOT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES
AND NEAR EAST SIDE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SPC GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIR MASS IN GENERAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA WHERE IT WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...AND BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE OVER OREGON AND THE LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE TRENDS ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST...AND THE EAST SIDE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA THEN.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER STILL...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT
SHASTA AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A KICKER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
BUT IT WILL SET UP AGAIN MONDAY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING MONDAY IT WILL BE OVER THE FAR EAST
SIDE. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE SAME OR JUST A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS.
LONG-TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION DETAILS...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER 500MB
HEIGHTS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS LOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY. THE EC
FEATURES A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES AN UPPER LOW SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
AREA. GFS MODEL TRENDS DO POINT TOWARD LOWERING HEIGHTS
OFFSHORE...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS...WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY INTACT.
SO...IN SUMMARY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS COOL AND WET TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY WEATHER DUE TO
THE DIFFERENCES IN UPPER LOW POSITIONING AMONGST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST EXPECT IFR TO
SPREAD INLAND INTO THE COOS BASIN INTO THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE COASTAL IFR DURING FRIDAY THOUGH
WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR
STRATUS UP TO THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING. SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRI 8 APR 2016...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW DECREASING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FOR NOW, WE`LL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OFFSHORE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. HOWEVER
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SWELL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 16 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL GET THAT HIGH, BUT HAVE TRENDED THEM UPWARD. IF THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE SWELL HEIGHT, THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO ADJUST THEM HIGHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
15/06/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BRISK...BLUSTERY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A CHANNELED VORT
LOBE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. POPS WERE
UPDATED SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER EAST TN AND
LATEST COUPLE HRRR RUNS. IN THE LLVLS...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ATOP
THE CWFA. A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR ACRS THE MTNS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING 850
MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS OVER THE NC MTNS. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE WINDS...ESP UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. I AM
SKEPTICAL OF THIS...AND OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND WHICH ONLY BUMPS
UP WINDS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE
WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLACED. THE GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW).
THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS NW FLOW SNOW. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT...WITH
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW
FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE EAST OF THE
MTNS THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN
THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LWR 30S IN THE MTNS
(WHERE IN THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD). MIN TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 12-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
TIER LATE MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE...AND POP WILL BE KEPT AT SUB SLIGHT CHANCES UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW. EVEN THEN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDOWN MONDAY.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FREEZE OR
HARD FREEZE LOOKS QUITE LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF 20S MINS EXPECTED.
SOME PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
WINDS SLACKEN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAY KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE
CURRENT WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOUTH TO SW FLOW AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON MAXES NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM...THEN DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST...
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN DEEP
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH INCREASING POP MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POP ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
CONFUSION REIGNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE GFS DOES
CONTINUE ITS TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOWS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US OPENING UP AND SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN IT AND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE ECMWF STARTS OUT LIKE
THE GFS BUT KEEPS A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER MOVING UPPER LOW. THIS
LOW NEVER PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND NOW REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE SE
THURSDAY WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY...BUT SOME
ENERGY DOES UNDERCUT AN ANTICYCLONE WITH DEVELOPS FROM THE RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS AGREEMENT
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER
THE NE US AND TAKES ON A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A FAST MOVING GULF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH THE GULF LOW...BUT NOT AS WET AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL
BLEND WHICH BRINGS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE WINDS...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE REGION. THE NW LLVL WINDS WILL KEEP A LEE
TROF ACRS THE PIEDMONT THAT WILL MAKE FOR MORE VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
UPSTATE SITES AND KHKY AND KCLT. STILL EXPECT KCLT TO FAVOR 280-290
THRU MOST OF THE AFTN...THEN BRIEFLY FAVOR 260 THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFT BACK TO 280 BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AGAIN EAST OF THE MTNS NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK OUT OF
THE NW. A HIGH-BASED A SCT-BKN CU DECK WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY SKC OR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EXCEPTION IS
AT KAVL...WHERE LOWER VFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THRU
THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SC...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SC FORESTRY...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE UPSTATE FOR SATURDAY FROM 10
AM TO 8 PM EDT. THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WINDS LOOK CLOSE TO RED
FLAG...BUT FUEL MOISTURES ARE STILL A BIT TOO MOIST FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING.
FOR GA...FUELS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 10 PCT TODAY...BUT FURTHER
DRYING WILL LIKELY PUSH THEM TO THE 8 PCT THRESHOLD. BOTH THE RH AND
WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA...SO AN
SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR NE GA.
FOR NC...AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WE ARE STILL COORDINATING FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AS
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS LOOK SOLID RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 85 2001 35 1916 62 1922 24 1972
KCLT 89 1893 46 2003 64 1908 25 1972
1916
KGSP 89 1965 48 2003 63 1999 27 1972
1938 1922
RECORDS FOR 04-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2001 38 1907 60 1959 23 1985
1929
1908
KCLT 90 2001 44 1984 65 1922 28 2007
1893 1985
KGSP 91 1995 44 2003 63 1922 24 1916
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ010.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
501>507.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ068>072-082-508>510.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ036-
037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...ARK
CLIMATE...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
247 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COLD TEMPS TONIGHT...PRECIP
CHANCES/TYPES LATER SAT NIGHT.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK BUT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LOWER MI WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS NORTHWEST INTO WI. WV IMAGERY
SHOWED A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO RIPPLE SOUTH FROM
WESTERN ONT ACROSS MN TO EASTERN IA. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PLUS
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCING SHSN FROM EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN IA.
VSBYS IN SOME OF THE SHSN DROP TO LESS THAN 1SM. FURTHER EAST NEAR
THE SFC TROUGH...MORE WIDESPREAD -SN FALLING ACROSS EASTERN
WI...WHILE FURTHER WEST CLOUDS MORE SCT/SKIES CLEAR OVER WESTERN
MN/IA. UNDER THE CLOUDS/COLD NORTHERLY FLOW...MID-DAY TEMPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND 20F BELOW NORMAL.
08.12Z MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT/SAT. THIS AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CAN. TREND AT 00Z SUN FAVORS FASTER OF
EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE CAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TIMING TREND SAT
NIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE MAIN TROUGH/
ENERGY MOVES EAST OF LK WINNIPEG...WHILE FAVORING STRONGER OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE ENERGY ITSELF. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE WITH MODELS OFFERING THE TIGHT CONSENSUS.
FOR THE SHORT-TERM...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST AREA RATHER
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING -SN TO DIMINISH/EXIT THE EAST
SIDE OF THE FCST AREA RATHER QUICKLY AS WELL. SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS/
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW MOVE EAST INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS PROGGED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY COLD TEMPS BY SAT MORNING. PER
NAEFS...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z SAT TO BE SOME 1.5 TO 2 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SAT MORNING LOWS CONTINUE TO TREND SOME 10F TO 15F
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S CURRENTLY
WELL TRENDED IN THE FCST GRIDS AND SUPPORTED BY LATEST NUMERICAL
TEMP GUIDANCE. TEMPS TO START REBOUNDING ALREADY SAT AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THIS GOES
INTO WARMING VS. VERTICAL MOTION...WITH 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z SUN
ALREADY IN THE +2C TO -2C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HIGHS SAT IN
THE 35F TO 45F RANGE QUITE REASONABLE. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS WELL BY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS 5-15 MPH FOR
INCREASING MIXING.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT...WITH EVEN STRONGER 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL CAN. SOME OF THIS
WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO GO INTO LIFT AS A SFC-850MB WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO...850MB TEMPS BY 12Z SUN PROGGED
IN THE 0C TO +10C RANGE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FCST AREA
BY 12Z SUN. 925-700MB MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER SAT NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES IN THE COLUMN CREATING
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. THERMAL PROFILE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER WARMING INDICATING A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET
OF ANY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY THE EARLIER ANY PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP/
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS MORE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...MAY ALLOW SOME -FZRA TO DEVELOP
LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS MAINLY ON TREES/POWER LINES AND PERHAPS BRIDGE
DECKS. LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF KLSE CONTINUES TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE FCST GRIDS. WITH THE STRONG 850MB WARMING AND
STEADY/ RISING SFC TEMPS LATE SAT NIGHT...BULK OF ANY PRECIP BY 12Z
SUN SHOULD TRANSITION TO -RA/-SHRA OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF
THE FCST AREA. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME WEAK MUCAPE INTO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/
STRONGEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA SOUTH OF I-90 LATE SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION/ ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH PLENTY OF SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN THICKENING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT
TRENDED TOWARD WARM OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THRU FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-RA/-SHRA CHANCES SUN...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.
08.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN INTO MON NIGHT. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON/MON NIGHT BUT SIGNAL FOR THE TROUGH AXIS
TO PASS LATE MON/MON EVENING WITH HGTS THEN RISING LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. OVERALL TREND /AT LEAST AT THE MID LEVELS/ FAVORS
STRONGER/SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION SUN THRU MON. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN THRU MON NIGHT
PERIOD IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.
TREND OF MODELS IS TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC-850MB
FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM EAST OF AREA BY 00Z MON. MAIN LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING...AND THIS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGHEST -RA/-SHRA CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. SMALL TSRA CHANCE
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 SUN MORNING OKAY FOR NOW BUT LATER DETAILING
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT THIS TO MAINLY THE 12Z-
15Z PERIOD AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KLSE. STRONGEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION PROGGED TO LAG THE COLD FRONT BY AS MUCH AS 100-200
MILES...WITH 925MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA STILL IN THE +6C TO +12C
RANGE AT 00Z MON. WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A WELL MIXED LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS...HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 LOOKING
GOOD AT THIS TIME. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/DRYING SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...DROPPING 925MB TEMPS TO -2C TO -7C BY
12Z MON. NAEFS THEN HAS 850MB TEMPS 1 TO 1.5 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT...FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY CHILLY PERIOD ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS THE NEXT CAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEAST
INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARS...LOWS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING TRENDING TO BE
SOME 10F TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMING TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SMALL -RA CHANCE WED.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 08.00Z/08.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION TUE AND LONGER WAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WED INTO THU.
THIS AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WED. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY WED/THU BUT THIS TO BE EXPECTED. REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY FOR STRONGER RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI AS STRONGER TROUGHING MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO EJECT
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR WARMING TEMPS NEXT WEEK BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON ANY SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES.
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH COOL/DRY CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUE. 850MB TEMPS TUE STILL AROUND 1 STD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. TUE LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AROUND 10F BELOW NORMAL. THE
HIGH DRIFTS OFF TUE NIGHT...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION THEN SETTING UP FOR WED INTO FRI UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THU...WITH GFS
PUSHING THEM WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI /ONE OF THE LATE PERIOD DETAIL
DIFFERENCES/. EITHER WAY...THE PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WED INTO FRI AND RISING HGTS ALOFT ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL /LOW-MID 50S/ BY THU AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI.
CAN-GEM BRING ONE LAST STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED /GFS/ECMWF TRACK IT FURTHER NORTH/ WITH A SFC-700MB
TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONGER LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASE WOULD ACCOMPANY
IT ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A -RA/-SHRA CHANCE. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT A SMALL -RA/-SHRA FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF WARMING
HIGHS/LOWS FROM BELOW NORMAL TUE TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE 08.15Z HRRR INDICATES THESE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LAST OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES PAST THE AREA.
UPSTREAM RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY SO WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE VFR CEILINGS THAT ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE WINDS
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...SPINNING ACROSS WI. SOME QG CONVERGENCE WITH
THE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...STRONGEST IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ACROSS
EASTERN WI. MOISTURE/CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8-9 C/KM UP TO
700 MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOSTLY CO-
LOCATED WITH A 100 MB DEEP SATURATED LAYER. VERY DRY SUB
CLOUD/INVERTED-V...WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR ENHANCED WIND GUSTS IF
YOU COULD PUT A BETTER PRECIPITATION LOAD THROUGH IT. AS IT
STANDS...EXPECT THE FORCING TO CONTINUE TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER FILLING IN.
PLACEMENT OF THE LIFT/SATURATION FAVORS WI FOR THE CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES POINT TO MOSTLY SNOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTH OF
I-94 AND UNDER AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS...WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM
-2 C EARLY THIS MORNING...TO -9 C BY 12Z SAT. ADD LIGHT SFC WINDS TO
THE MIX AND A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LOWS IN THE
20S TO UPPER TEENS.
THE HIGH QUICKLY SLIPS EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KICKING
UP AND STRONG WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENCROACHING ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET/850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSES INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
SAT...PERSISTING SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXITING EAST/SOUTHEAST SUN
EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHALLENGES WITH THIS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE FRONT END. STRONG WARMING SUGGESTS
FULL/PARTIAL MELTING...WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING
AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN/DEVELOPS IN WESTERN WI. SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CLOSE TO A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD ENOUGH LAYER FOR
REFREEZE TO SLEET. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET POINT TO AN ISOLATED THUNDER RISK. ALL
IN ALL...RAIN- FREEZING RAIN-SLEET ALL LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH SNOW A
GREATER THREAT FARTHER NORTHEAST. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ICING...MOSTLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES...AND GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD RESULT IF
ROAD TEMPS CAN COOL ENOUGH. IMPACTS TO SUNDAY MORNING TRAVEL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
GFS/ECMWF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD BUILDING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH A SFC HIGH MEANDERING OVER THE REGION ON TUE...AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY MID WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS WILL SEE A
CORRESPONDING BUMP UP...WARMING FROM AROUND -8 C AT 00Z TUE...TO
NEAR +6 C BY 00Z FRI. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK TO...OR EVEN
ABOVE THE EARLY/MID APRIL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE 08.15Z HRRR INDICATES
THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
LAST OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES PAST
THE AREA. UPSTREAM RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY SO WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. AFTER
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE VFR CEILINGS THAT ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04