Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/07/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1102 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016
DOUBLE BARREL FRONTAL SYSTEM LINED UP TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. FIRST FRONT NOW REACHING THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND AREAS
UP ALONG THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER. LAPS AND RAP TEMP AND PRES
CHANGE MAPS SHOW A PUSH OF COLDS AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUDGING
SOUTH ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30KTS. AT THE SAME TIME QG OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE AN ELONGATED BAND OF WEAK TO MODERATE ASCENT
STRETCHING FROM THE PARK/SUMMIT COUNTY AREA TO THE STERLING/
JULESBURG AREA ON THE PLAINS. UNDER THIS BAND HAVE SEEM LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL AS A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALSO UNDERWAY ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT NO PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS YET AS THE
SUBCLOUD ENVIRONMENT STILL RELATIVELY DRY. MTN AREAS ROUGHLY ABOVE
10500 FEET COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW AND WITH
FALLING TEMPS WITH THE NEXT FRONT...MTN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO COVER
OVER WITH SNOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW UP HIGH.
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MODELS SHOW THIS FIRST FRONT SLOWLY
DOWN AS IT MOVES ACRS SERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IT IS IN THIS
AREA THAT HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER LAPSES WITH E-NELY BNDRY LAYER
WINDS COULD GENERATE SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 200-350 J/KG RANGE
CAPABLE OF A FEW LOW TOP/LOW INTENSITY T-STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DRYING EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AND CHEYENNE RIDGE SHOULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
IN THESE AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
COLORADO LINES UP WITH CLOUD ARC ON VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY. COLD
CUMULUS FORMING IN ITS WAKE GOOD INDICATOR OF COLDER SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THIS 2ND FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS ONE. AT PRESENT SPEED SHOULD SEE THIS SECONDARY
COLD AIR SURGE AND STRONG NWLY FLOW SWEEPING ACRS THE HIGH
COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD SEE STRONGER NWLY WINDS REACHING THEIR MAX SPEEDS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS. COULD SEE GUSTS PEAKING IN THE
40-50MPH RANGE ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...30-45 MPH RANGE WITHIN
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND 50-65 MPH RANGE IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND UP
AROUND TIMBERLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016
UPPER TROUGH HAS SHEARED INTO TWO PIECES...WITH ONE HEADED EAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ONE PART PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND
UTAH ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE SURGE IS WELL
NORTH OF US...THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE PART
HEADED OUR WAY BUT IT IS WORKING ON FAIRLY DRY AIR. THERE ARE
SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS UPSTREAM THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHARP
COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRYING
AS EVIDENCED BY LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE PLACES IN WESTERN WYOMING
AND ADJACENT AREAS WHERE THE WIND IS BLOWING. SO THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS POCKET WHERE THE LIFT...A BIT OF
MOISTURE...AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE COOLING ALOFT OVERLAP. THIS
AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...AND OVER
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIMITING FACTORS...IT IS
WELL TIMED AND THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...UP TO 500 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE WIND. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MAY
NOT BE SO GREAT...BUT THE DEEP MIXING OF THE FLOW WITH 40 KNOTS AT
600 MB SHOULD PRODUCE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HUMIDITIES WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FIRE
DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE WIND. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT IS MAINLY JUST A SMALL
ACCELERATION OF THE EXISTING WIND AS WE MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET
THUNDER.
DRYING COMES QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT...THEN MUCH MORE BY EARLY MORNING. WITH THE WARMING ALOFT
BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT THERE IS A SHORT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE...AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A HIGH WIND THREAT BUT IT MAY KEEP THE
WINDS BLOWING IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND WAVE HOT SPOTS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016
MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW DECREASES IN SPEEDS TO NEAR ZERO
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF COLORADO. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOW
BENIGN ENERGY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...
A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES IN...EVEN NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE BY 00Z
LATE AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE BY 06Z THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THE
SURGE HAS BARELY ANY COLDER AIR WITH IT...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELDS SHOW IT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT IN THE MID
LEVELS FOR THE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THERE IS NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO CAPE FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE
FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF
FIELDS EITHER. CROSS SECTIONS DO HAVE A MOUNTAIN WAVE SET FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGHLIGHTS.
NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-6 C WARMER
THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
NOW HAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA WELL INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME
TROUGHINESS AND OR SPLIT FLOW OVER COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS NOW. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TWO
OR THREE DAYS AGO MODELS FEATURED A LOT OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR ALL
THE WEEKEND. NOW THERE IS JUST A BIT HERE AND THERE UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON..THEN THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE ON BOTH MODELS WELL
INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT IN SOMETIME FROM LATE
SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAVE REACHED THE DENVER METRO AREA AS
INDICATED BY THE TURN TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS.
WIND SPEEDS WITH THIS FIRST COLD AIR SURGE IN THE 8-16 KT RANGE
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 24KTS. WIND AT KBJC COULD REMAIN WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15-30KTS FOR A BIT LONGER. THEN THE SECOND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST COLORADO AT THE MOMENT IS FORECAST
TO RACE ACRS THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWN ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA
BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MDT. WITH ITS PASSAGE...ANTICIPATE STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45KTS IN THE DENVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SUCH
AS AT KBJC. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE METRO AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
901 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST WEAKENING TREND
TO CURRENT WDLY SCT SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE WCNTRL PENINSULA AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS
AND INSTABILITY LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MAY ISSUE A ZFP UPDATE
TO DROP CHC POPS DOWN TO SCHC FOR TONIGHT PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TREND FOR NOW. WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION FORECAST TO APPROACH
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE. ALL OF THIS OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. MIN
TEMPS TO BE MILD IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.
THU...PREVIOUS...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE OFFSHORE EARLY AND MOVING AWAY
FROM THE PENINSULA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TO OUR EAST.
SOME SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE SO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MOS POPS WERE
BELOW 10 PERCENT...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION IN THE GULF AND PUSHING ONSHORE EARLY THU. A WESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN SLOWLY MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SCHC-CHC MVFR SHRA`S TONIGHT MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST COAST FROM THE WESTERN PENINSULA. ANY TSRA CHANCES LIKELY
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. VFR WITH A WSW/W WIND FLOW 10-15 KNOTS ON
TAP FOR THU...THOUGH ANOTHER SHOT AT SCHC-CHC MVFR SHRA`S IN THE
MORNING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DECREASING
CHANCES SPREADING SOUTHWARD FROM HERE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM
THE ATLC SEABOARD ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO SE/S THROUGH LATE
EVENING...THEN SSW/SW LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC. SEAS STILL UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS GOING FOR FOR
ALL MARINE LEGS EXCEPT NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY. SCATTERED GULF
STREAM LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT WITH A SMALL THREAT
FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
THU...PREVIOUS...SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW PRE FRONTAL WINDS
EXPECTED...MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 3-5 FEET
NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FEET OFFSHORE...MAINLY DUE TO A LONG PERIOD
NORTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
754 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.Update...
A small area of convection has developed across the Florida
panhandle from eastern Bay county northward to eastern Jackson
county as of 2345z. The 22z HRRR takes this convection and gradually
expands it eastward and northward through the evening hours. The
overall threat for severe weather appears low but not totally
impossible, and the previous forecast reasoning for that remains
valid below. Made some adjustments to PoPs based on the latest radar
trends and HRRR output, otherwise no changes to tonight`s forecast.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] A cold front is expected to move across our
forecast area during the overnight hours. Accompanying this front
will be an increase in cloud cover, light precipitation, and winds
will become westerly. Most terminals will be under MVFR, while IFR
conditions are possible especially during periods of precipitation
and around sunrise. Conditions are expected to improve from west
to east after sunrise with VFR returning.
&&
.Prev Discussion [345 PM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
At 18 UTC the surface analysis showed a cold front approaching the
Mississippi River. Scattered showers and storms were occurring
ahead of this boundary across eastern Arkansas. Limited
development was noted further south into northern Louisiana.
Locally, easterly flow has shifted to southerly with surface
dewpoints beginning to climb through the mid 50s inland and near
60 at the coast. Expect a gradual moistening trend to continue
throughout the evening ahead of the cold front.
Main forecast concern overnight as the cold front nears the region
is shower and thunderstorm development. Most of the forcing with
the system is further north across the Tennessee River Valley.
Instability is also lacking, which suggests that if storms were to
develop, they`d likely occur near the time the cold front
approaches the region. The kinematics actually look pretty good,
with 0-6km shear increasing to near 60kt after 00z. The best
overlap of forcing, shear, and instability is located off to the
north, and as a result, only a tiny portion of our area is
included in a marginal risk area. Given the appearance of the
southern end of the system at this time and the limited
development suggested by our local WRFs, will keep rain chances on
the lower side and not include mention of severe storms at this
time.
The cold front should transit the region between 03z and 09z
tonight and clear to the east of the region by sunrise.
Overnight temperatures will be mild, generally in the mid to upper
50s.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The cold front is expected to have cleared the area by Thursday
morning with high pressure and a drier and cooler airmass moving
in behind it. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected
to dominate with overnight low dipping into the mid to upper 40s
by Friday night. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be
generally in the mid 70s to near 80.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
An upper level trough will persist across the northeast states
this weekend with dry, northwest flow aloft over the local area.
Temperatures are expected to be below average this weekend, with
highs mainly near 70 and lows in the 40s. Temperatures will warm
to around average values next week as the surface ridge moves east
into the Atlantic Ocean. There is some disagreement on the
timing of when the next system will arrive, but it could be around
Tuesday or Wednesday.
.Marine...
Winds will become westerly overnight as a cold front passes
through with moderate west to northwest winds continuing through
the remainder of the week.
.Fire Weather...
After a quick round of showers and thunderstorms tonight...much
drier air will return to the forecast area on Thursday. The dry
air will remain in place through the weekend. Fuels remain
fairly wet. By the time the RH gets low enough to meet that
portion of red flag criteria on Sunday, fuels may be dry enough to
cause us to look at wind speeds. At this point, it looks as if
wind speeds will be low enough to preclude reaching red flag
criteria in spite of fuels.
.Hydrology...
River flooding continues across the lower portion of the various
basins this afternoon. Only the far southern portion of the
Apalachicola River and the Suwannee River are still rising.
In the ACF system, releases have dropped considerably from Walter
F George, that inflows into Lake Seminole from the Chattahoochee
side should be quite low in the next 36 hours. The Flint still has
a while before the peak flow reaches Lake Seminole, given that
Albany is just now cresting below 21 feet. Thus, expect to see
some decrease in the releases from Woodruff over the next 48
hours. This will have the Apalachicola River near Blountstown
slowly falling over the next couple of days, with more significant
drops by the weekend.
The Withlacoochee River has crested through US-84, with Pinetta
expected to crest just above moderate stage on Thursday. As a
result, focus for flooding will shift to the Suwannee late this
weekend and into next week. Anticipated peak flows at Ellaville
look to be in the 30kcfs to 35kcfs range, which suggest minor
flooding is likely at the Middle Suwannee points from Ellaville
through Luraville by early next week.
Any rainfall with tonight`s system will be to isolated to have an
impact on area rivers. The next potential for significant rainfall
will be next week in the Wed-Fri timeframe.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 59 80 55 77 48 / 60 0 0 0 0
Panama City 61 73 61 74 54 / 40 0 0 0 0
Dothan 56 76 53 73 47 / 50 0 0 0 0
Albany 56 76 53 73 46 / 50 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 59 77 53 76 47 / 50 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 79 56 80 49 / 50 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 63 76 61 76 53 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
Coastal Franklin-South Walton.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...DVD/FDC
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
753 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.AVIATION...
SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS FROM SHRA ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY
IMPACT KLAL/KPGD/KTPA TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR
WILL CONTINUE. SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY AFFECT
KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ BETWEEN 08-13Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS FROM PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KPGD/KFMY/KRSW BETWEEN 10-13Z WITH SHRA IN THE VICINITY.
VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER 16Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH SOME GUSTS
UP TO 22 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SHARP AND RATHER
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHILE FURTHER AMPLIFYING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
FURTHER UPSTREAM THE WEST COAST RESIDES UNDER A REX BLOCK- TYPE
CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING WEST OF THE BAJA
REGION UNDERNEATH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE CURRENT LOOK OF THIS TROUGH NORMALLY
WOULD SEEM CONCERNING FOR OUR AREA AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR
TO BE DIGGING IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
12Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
IN SUCH A WAY TO KEEP THE IMPACTS OF ITS PASSAGE THROUGH OUR
REGION EARLY THURSDAY ON THE LOW SIDE. WITHIN THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH...ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ANALYZED ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIGGING
OF THE TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS SHOWN BY
ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO UNDERGO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEARING/STRETCHING AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING OVERALL SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC FORCING COMBINED
WITH A MEAGER/SHALLOW MOISTURE/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD KEEP
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND LESS ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO RELAX TODAY...BUT APPEARS THE GRADIENT IS FINALLY
TRYING TO RELAX. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR A WEAK SEA-BREEZE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MUCH INLAND PENETRATION IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. STILL...THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW AT THE COAST WILL HELP SET
UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE ALL STILL SHOWING
SOME DEGREE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION BEING SUPPORTED WITHIN THIS LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
MIGRATING INLAND THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN THE MORNING AFD...AND STILL FEELS TRUE NOW...GIVEN
THE LEVEL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB OFF THE MORNING KTBW 12Z
SOUNDING...LACK OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT TO MODIFY THE SOUNDING BEFORE
THIS EVENING...THE TIME OF YEAR...AND NOW THE LATER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SEA-BREEZE...FEEL THAT MANY OF THESE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING
THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR THAT
TRANSLATE INLAND AFTER 22/23Z...BUT FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THAN WOULD BE ANTICIPATED JUST VIEWING
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT
UPDRAFTS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE THROUGH A RATHER HOSTILE MID- LEVEL
LAYER FOR DEEP CONVECTION...AND WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH HELP FROM
THE SEA- BREEZE.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD AS
THE SHORTWAVE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BE
APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST ZONES BY 12Z. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE STARTING TO SHEAR OUT BY THIS
TIME. BUT...AT LEAST A WEAK SWATH OF 700-300MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS STILL SLATED TO SWING THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY. THIS WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUPPORTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING INTO THE NATURE COAST ZONES BETWEEN
08-12Z. THIS BAND SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PROGRESSES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO A HIGHER DEGREE OF RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR. EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND AND THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY...AND HAVE ALL AREAS BACK TO
NO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY
DAY EVENT FOR ANY RAINFALL...LEAVING MOST OF THURSDAY WITH RAPIDLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE DESCENDS OVER THE
PENINSULA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LIKELY
RETURNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF I-4 MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING FRONT WILL KEEP THE BEACHES
IN THE 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE TRANSPORT OF "COOLER" MARINE AREA.
MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES BY ANY MEANS BUT IT WILL FEEL
REFRESHING...TO MOST. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BELOW AVERAGE
AREA WIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE
WITH APRIL COOL-DOWNS IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SLOWS THE NEXT FRONT DOWN
SOME. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NOT ALL
THAT UNUSUAL SINCE APRIL IS TYPICALLY THE DRIEST MONTH FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA.
MARINE...
ELEVATED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BAND OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING
BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MAKE
A QUICK PASSAGE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS AND
FRONT SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST BY MIDDAY...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MAINLY WEST
WIND. SPOTS INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR MAY BRIEFLY SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE GUSTY IN NATURE. THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME
SPOTS TO SEE INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
AND THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN. COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE STATE
ON NORTHERLY WINDS DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS
LIKELY THAT LARGE AREAS OF THE STATE WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 76 64 78 / 60 30 0 0
FMY 65 81 64 83 / 30 20 0 0
GIF 64 80 60 81 / 30 40 0 0
SRQ 67 75 63 78 / 50 40 0 0
BKV 61 76 54 79 / 60 30 0 0
SPG 68 76 65 78 / 60 30 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
929 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
929 PM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS TO SLOW TEMP DECREASE THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING
AND TO ADJUST HOURLY POP GRIDS PER RADAR TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO OVERALL CHARACTER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST.
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS CLASSIC WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN IL AND
NORTHWEST IN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY
DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
HOWEVER...MAINTAINING PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WI/FAR EASTERN IA
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES AND MAINTAINS
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF OUR LIGHT PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...SLOW COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR
KEEPING PRECIP ALL RAIN...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRYING ABOVE
ABOUT 800 MB PER RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS BY MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS AND THEREFORE ANY MIX OF WET SNOW
SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID-30S OR BETTER COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP AND MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENT BLOCKY UPPER
PATTERN WITH DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
311 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN PRECIP SHIELD STILL SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST...STILL IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS GREATER ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THIS PRECIP SHIELD EXIT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONGER VORT LOBE. THIS REINFORCING ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE
SCATTERED/SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH BETTER
FOCUSING EXITING ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...OVERALL COVERAGE
OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND DO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO LOW
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WITH
THIS IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION. LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WITH THESE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE. PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN OR EVEN BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME...DONT ANTICIPATE THIS TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTS A RETURN TO RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING P-TYPE FORECASTS. ON FRIDAY...A
STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DRIVING H85 TEMPS FROM AROUND
-7C FRIDAY TO NEAR -15C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTS IN BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER THAT MAY NOT SUPPORT
COMPLETE MELTING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WINTRY PRECIP TYPE
CHANCES. THE UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WITH A WEAK TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL. LES
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HELPS
TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS.
BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...HOWEVER CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING THAT WARM OF
TEMPS...THUS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER BUT
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
STEADY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS UPSTREAM COULD STILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT THAT WILL PROBABLY BUILD DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT OFF THE LAKE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25-30 KT ON THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 AND POSSIBLY 35 KT SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION...THEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY
BREEZE TO AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
The cold front that swept through our area during the day
bringing the rainfall and damaging wind gusts to extreme
southeast Illinois this afternoon, has shifted off to our east
early this evening. The latest water vapor loop indicates the
rather vigorous upper wave was progressing into Indiana with
several small bands of light rain tracking southeast into the
area. We should see these around central Illinois for a few more
hours before ending during the early morning hours. After that,
gusty northwest winds will bring in another batch of chilly air
for the next day with models indicating some very cold air aloft
streaming southeast into the area on Thursday. This may lead to
some widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially over far west central through southwest Illinois during
the afternoon. These may produce some small hail or graupel in a
few locations before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating
late in the afternoon or early evening.
Have already made some wording adjustments to the ZFP with the
last update sent out earlier in the evening. No other changes
have been made since then that would warrant another update at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over Lake Michigan, with
cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. Widespread
light to moderate rain continues to fall in the vicinity of the
boundary...primarily from just east of I-55 to the Indiana border.
Further west, the precipitation has ended across the Illinois River
Valley. The front will continue to progress eastward into Indiana
over the next few hours, with rain lingering across the far E/SE
KILX CWA through early evening. Meanwhile, an area of showers
beneath the trailing upper-level trough currently over eastern Iowa
will drop southeastward into central Illinois this evening. Based
on latest regional radar mosaic and HRRR forecast, have included low
chance PoPs for showers everywhere this evening, followed by a few
lingering showers across only the N/NE CWA after midnight. Will be
a breezy and cool night, with W/NW winds gusting to between 20 and
25 mph. Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s northwest of
the Illinois River, to the lower 40s south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Active northwest flow to continue a couple more days. Next clipper
system currently in northern Alberta will race southeast into
northern Minnesota by Thursday morning before weakening, while an
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes. The remnants of the
clipper are progged by most of the models to be accompanied by a
cold pocket of -30C air near 500 mb, which will track into west
central Illinois by Thursday afternoon. Have added some isolated
thunder into the southwest CWA forecast for the afternoon due to
this increased instability from the cold pocket. However, general
trend in the forecast was to reduce the overall PoP`s by about 20-
30%, concentrating the higher values over the southwest CWA (near
the clipper remnants) and the far northeast CWA (closer to the upper
trough). Kept isolated showers in between. A few showers will linger
into Thursday night as a surface boundary moves through. Next wave
will drop out of Ontario early Friday and race through the Midwest.
Little change in PoP`s for Friday, mainly concentrating them from
Bloomington to Lawrenceville eastward. With this fast flow, windy
conditions to continue for Thursday and especially Friday, when
gusts near 35 mph are likely.
Hard freeze threat continues to loom for Friday night, as 850 mb
temperatures dip to about -12C, near record lows for this time of
year. There is a bit of concern across the eastern CWA where skies
will be a bit slower to clear, but the strong cold-air advection may
overcome this. Continued with lows generally 25-30 degrees. Lower
30s likely in most areas Saturday night as well, but increasing
southerly flow will keep things a bit warmer across the west after
midnight.
Significant pattern shift on deck early next week as a split upper
flow converges over the central U.S. This will result in
temperatures returning closer to normal. While the longer range
models focus on an upper trough passing through Monday night and
Tuesday, the ECMWF is more prominent with digging it further south,
with temperatures cooler than the GFS. Both models maintain a cold
front moving through the area Sunday night and Monday, and have
increased PoP`s to the likely range (60-70%). With the deeper ECMWF,
it pushes the front fully through the area by Monday evening,
whereas the GFS lingers it and the associated rain about 6-12 hours
longer. Consequently, have kept some likely PoP`s over the southeast
into Monday night, with the remainder of the area drying out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
The cold front that pushed across the area today bringing the
rain and occasional low cigs has pushed off to the east of the
TAF sites early this evening. Satellite data and surface obs
out to our west showing a large area of low VFR and MVFR cigs
across Iowa and that is what we will see across our area
into the overnight hours accompanied by scattered rain showers.
Forecast soundings not showing much hope for any significant
improvement until after 10z across the west. With the low
level cold advection expected overnight coupled with cyclonic
flow, will side with a more pessimistic outlook with the
occasional MVFR cigs into Thu morning. Surface winds will
be out of the west to northwest tonight at 10 to 15 kts
with occasional gusts up to around 20 kts, especially this
evening. Look for northwest winds on Thursday at 12 to 17 kts
with gusts up to 23 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
640 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...
311 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN PRECIP SHIELD STILL SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST...STILL IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS GREATER ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THIS PRECIP SHIELD EXIT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONGER VORT LOBE. THIS REINFORCING ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE
SCATTERED/SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH BETTER
FOCUSING EXITING ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...OVERALL COVERAGE
OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND DO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO LOW
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WITH
THIS IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION. LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WITH THESE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE. PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN OR EVEN BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME...DONT ANTICIPATE THIS TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTS A RETURN TO RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING P-TYPE FORECASTS. ON FRIDAY...A
STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DRIVING H85 TEMPS FROM AROUND
-7C FRIDAY TO NEAR -15C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTS IN BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER THAT MAY NOT SUPPORT
COMPLETE MELTING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WINTRY PRECIP TYPE
CHANCES. THE UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WITH A WEAK TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL. LES
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HELPS
TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS.
BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...HOWEVER CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING THAT WARM OF
TEMPS...THUS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER BUT
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
STEADY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS UPSTREAM COULD STILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT THAT WILL PROBABLY BUILD DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT OFF THE LAKE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25-30 KT ON THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 AND POSSIBLY 35 KT SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION...THEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY
BREEZE TO AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
620 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over Lake Michigan, with
cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. Widespread
light to moderate rain continues to fall in the vicinity of the
boundary...primarily from just east of I-55 to the Indiana border.
Further west, the precipitation has ended across the Illinois River
Valley. The front will continue to progress eastward into Indiana
over the next few hours, with rain lingering across the far E/SE
KILX CWA through early evening. Meanwhile, an area of showers
beneath the trailing upper-level trough currently over eastern Iowa
will drop southeastward into central Illinois this evening. Based
on latest regional radar mosaic and HRRR forecast, have included low
chance PoPs for showers everywhere this evening, followed by a few
lingering showers across only the N/NE CWA after midnight. Will be
a breezy and cool night, with W/NW winds gusting to between 20 and
25 mph. Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s northwest of
the Illinois River, to the lower 40s south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Active northwest flow to continue a couple more days. Next clipper
system currently in northern Alberta will race southeast into
northern Minnesota by Thursday morning before weakening, while an
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes. The remnants of the
clipper are progged by most of the models to be accompanied by a
cold pocket of -30C air near 500 mb, which will track into west
central Illinois by Thursday afternoon. Have added some isolated
thunder into the southwest CWA forecast for the afternoon due to
this increased instability from the cold pocket. However, general
trend in the forecast was to reduce the overall PoP`s by about 20-
30%, concentrating the higher values over the southwest CWA (near
the clipper remnants) and the far northeast CWA (closer to the upper
trough). Kept isolated showers in between. A few showers will linger
into Thursday night as a surface boundary moves through. Next wave
will drop out of Ontario early Friday and race through the Midwest.
Little change in PoP`s for Friday, mainly concentrating them from
Bloomington to Lawrenceville eastward. With this fast flow, windy
conditions to continue for Thursday and especially Friday, when
gusts near 35 mph are likely.
Hard freeze threat continues to loom for Friday night, as 850 mb
temperatures dip to about -12C, near record lows for this time of
year. There is a bit of concern across the eastern CWA where skies
will be a bit slower to clear, but the strong cold-air advection may
overcome this. Continued with lows generally 25-30 degrees. Lower
30s likely in most areas Saturday night as well, but increasing
southerly flow will keep things a bit warmer across the west after
midnight.
Significant pattern shift on deck early next week as a split upper
flow converges over the central U.S. This will result in
temperatures returning closer to normal. While the longer range
models focus on an upper trough passing through Monday night and
Tuesday, the ECMWF is more prominent with digging it further south,
with temperatures cooler than the GFS. Both models maintain a cold
front moving through the area Sunday night and Monday, and have
increased PoP`s to the likely range (60-70%). With the deeper ECMWF,
it pushes the front fully through the area by Monday evening,
whereas the GFS lingers it and the associated rain about 6-12 hours
longer. Consequently, have kept some likely PoP`s over the southeast
into Monday night, with the remainder of the area drying out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
The cold front that pushed across the area today bringing the
rain and occasional low cigs has pushed off to the east of the
TAF sites early this evening. Satellite data and surface obs
out to our west showing a large area of low VFR and MVFR cigs
across Iowa and that is what we will see across our area
into the overnight hours accompanied by scattered rain showers.
Forecast soundings not showing much hope for any significant
improvement until after 10z across the west. With the low
level cold advection expected overnight coupled with cyclonic
flow, will side with a more pessimistic outlook with the
occasional MVFR cigs into Thu morning. Surface winds will
be out of the west to northwest tonight at 10 to 15 kts
with occasional gusts up to around 20 kts, especially this
evening. Look for northwest winds on Thursday at 12 to 17 kts
with gusts up to 23 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1250 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
839 PM CDT
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FORECAST AS WELL AS DROPPING
THE FORECAST LOWS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES AS CLEARING REMAINS
EXPECTED OVER AN ALREADY CHILLY AND MAINLY DRY AIR MASS.
SURFACE RIDGING IS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM A
1030MB HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE 00Z DVN RAOB
MEASURED -2C AT 925MB WHILE GRB HAD -7C. THESE ARE GOOD SYNOPTIC
PARAMETERS FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY EARLY APRIL STANDARDS. THE
CHALLENGE IS IF THE STRATOCU WILL TOTALLY DISAPPEAR AND THINK THAT
IT MAINLY WILL. NORTHERLY 925-850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
THE CLOUDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WHILE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD EAT AWAY AT THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA WHICH HAS
BEEN SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FORECASTING
CLEARING HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IT THUS FAR...BUT
THINK THE GENERAL TREND IS RIGHT.
IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY CLEAR AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COOL SPOTS FAVORED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S BASED ON DEW POINTS
AT THAT LEVEL.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
206 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE ONGOING GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO OHARE TO KANKAKEE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN SOME WET
ROADS. THE HEAVIER ECHOES ARE TRANSIENT GIVEN MARGINAL INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND SUBPAR MOISTURE COLDER THAN -10C. THE MOISTURE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO THIN IN THE COMING HOURS BUT LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF
300-400 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW THE
MOISTURE LAYER TO THIN...BUT ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR
CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL THINNING
OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF CLEARING WILL
DIRECTLY DETERMINE THE COOLING TREND TONIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S...SOME MID TO POSSIBLY LOWER 20S AWAY FROM URBAN
AREAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD TOMORROW
MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
MAY CARRY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-88 AND WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT BENIGN...AND WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND IN PLACE...THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GOOD...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN OVERALL DECIDEDLY WINTER LIKE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE IN STORE DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING APRIL...RESULTING IN
ACTIVE WEATHER AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVEN PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK THAT MOVED
ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. A VERY STRONG 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW ON THE MODELS BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL SETUP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SECONDARY LEAD WAVE WILL
FOCUS INTO THE NORTHERN/ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE
EVENING WITH POPS TAILORED TOWARD THIS IDEA. VERY INTENSE LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS WELL AS STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND THEN EASTERN
CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION COULD YIELD
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LOW DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB TO THE LOWER 40S AND REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN RISE THEREAFTER WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AFTER HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 50S. TRAILING MIDLEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN BAND OVER THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY BROADBRUSHED WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. PRECIP
RATES WILL BE KEY IN WHETHER FULL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CAN OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
A FEW MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVEN BY IMPRESSIVE
HIGH AMPLITUDE (2014-2015 ESQUE) RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA. THESE DETAILS WILL BE HONED IN OVER THE COMING DAYS. OVER
THE WEEKEND...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AT THIS DISTANCE LOOKS
FAVORABLE BELIEVE IT OR NOT ON MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...BUT HELD WITH CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS BACK ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH RAIN POTENTIAL RETURNING
AND PERHAPS EVEN THUNDER THOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE 5KFT STRATOCU
DECK IS DISSIPATING AND SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE SKC OVERNIGHT.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECM SELY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY VEER TO
SLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL STILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL MAY END UP BEING VIRGA OR LIGHT
SPRINKLES. EVENTUALLY...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN...BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
428 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE OVER THE LAKE. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA NEARSHORE AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN THE LIGHTER
WINDS TEMPORARILY. THEREAFTER...THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH AND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO RAMP UP ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE OPEN WATERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS...AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE LAKE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO MILD TO PRECLUDE GALES. HAVE THUS ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE OPEN WATER AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
NEARSHORE...WHICH HAS 30 KT MENTION IN THE NSH FOR NOW. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH WHICH THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY...GALES MAY REDEVELOP OR LINGER FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS TO START THURSDAY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE LAKE. THE NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT
AND VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR APRIL WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST 25-30 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS. PATTERN DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GALE POTENTIAL
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BARRING BIG CHANGES IN THE SETUP.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016
High pressure will build into the Lake Michigan area from the
northwest tonight eliminating the remaining low cloudiness
associated with Lake Effect snow off of Lake Michigan. Although it
may take a few more hours for cloud cover north of a Bloomington-
Champaign-Danville line to clear, most of the cloud cover over
central IL has already cleared. Winds 5-10 mph out of the
northeast continue this evening, and these will continue to slow
and turn E-SE overnight as a result of the high pressure region.
Temperatures have dropped to the upper 30s to mid 40s at most
sites so far, and these will continue to fall to the upper 20s as
the E-NE winds help to push a cold air mass over central IL from
the northeast. A freeze warning remains in effect from Schuyler
County to Vermilion County southward where the growing season has
begun. Current forecast is on track and no significant updates
needed this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016
18z/1pm surface map shows cold front just south of the Ohio River,
while a 1031mb high builds southward out of Manitoba. Low clouds
associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes continue
to drop southward behind the departing front, with latest visible
satellite imagery showing scattered to broken clouds along/north of
a Macomb to Paris line. HRRR suggests these clouds may develop a
bit further south over the next couple of hours before rapidly
dissipating early this evening. Based on the highly diurnal look to
the clouds on satellite, think clearing will indeed occur quickly
near or just after sunset. Will hang on to a few clouds from
Bloomington to Champaign through mid-evening, then will go mostly
clear across the board for the remainder of the night. Brisk
northerly winds will become east-northeast and decrease to less than
10 mph tonight as Manitoba high builds into the Great Lakes. Thanks
to clearing skies and diminishing winds, overnight low temperatures
will drop into the upper 20s. Current Freeze Warning along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville line will remain in
place with no changes planned at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016
Fairly active pattern on tap for the upcoming week, with periods of
rain showers and some thunderstorms, breezy conditions at times, and
shots of cold air with potential freezing conditions and even a bit
of snow. Mother Nature can`t seem to decide what season to go with
at the moment.
Deep upper trough currently along the Pacific Northwest coast will
close off an upper low over northern Montana overnight, helping to
intensify an Alberta Clipper which will dive into the Midwest around
mid week. Rather dry layer below 10,000 feet will need to be
overcome before any precip arrives, as high pressure drifting
eastward won`t provide much of a return flow late Tuesday evening.
Have maintained some slight chance PoP`s during the day over the far
north as initial shot of energy tracks across the upper Midwest, but
think main period of rain will be after midnight Tuesday night
through early Wednesday afternoon, once the cold front passes
through. Far southeast CWA may remain dry until early Wednesday
morning, with the cold front still over the northwest part of Illinois
at sunrise. MUCAPE`s of 300-500 J/kg progged over the region, so
will maintain a mention of thunder as well. Wraparound showers
likely to follow as the upper trough passes through Wednesday night.
Next Canadian storm system will be close behind, forming over
northern British Columbia Tuesday and diving into the Midwest by
Thursday morning. Scattered showers will accompany its passage, with
the threat lingering over the eastern CWA into Friday as a strong
northwest flow brings another upper trough/low into the region.
Can`t rule out some snow accompanying the rain as 850 mb
temperatures drop to around -8C. Current indications are that this
system may very well be accompanied by a hard freeze Friday night
with lows in the mid-upper 20s.
Upper pattern over the weekend transitions into more of a split flow
as low pressure drifts in from off the southern California coast,
and another wave tracks along the Canadian border. Some timing
differences between the GFS and ECMWF on how fast the precipitation
returns, but both have at least scattered showers in by Sunday
afternoon. The associated frontal boundary is expected to hang up in
between the split flow Sunday night, lingering into Monday. The
ECMWF is stronger with digging this northern wave, and thus favors a
stronger surface reflection with thunderstorms more likely. Not
going into that full-scale at the moment given it`s still several
days out, but have included a chance of thunder over the southeast
third of the forecast area Monday, with isolated chances elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours...with SHRA/TSRA and
lowering ceilings approaching from the northwest near the end of
the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Winds NE around 5 kts shifting to
SE by 14Z. Wind speeds increasing from 8-10 kts at 14Z to 15-20
kts by 00Z...potentially with higher gusts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
158 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SOME
FLURRIES COULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.
WITH THIS IN MIND...ISOLATED FLURRIES HAVE BEEN ADDED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN STRATOCU DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD THIN
TOWARD DAWN. IN ADDITION...COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALL TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY WITH THE LAST OF ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AIR IS POURING INTO THE STATE ON NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLACKEN LATER TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAINLY CAA FORECAST AND ONE
WITHOUT MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. AS
SUCH WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO VARY BY DAWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON THE RIDGES. THE READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR
SOUTH...WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL GET IN ON THE BATTLE OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SOME
LOW ONES...LIKE ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WILL SETTLE INTO THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BEFORE
DISSIPATING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL THIS MAY SPARE EAST KENTUCKY
THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THIS LATEST ARCTIC BLAST...BUT STILL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB 30 DEGREE TEMPS FOR MOST OF
OUR ZONES BY MORNING...IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE THOUGHTS AS WELL AS TWEAKED
THE TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND
TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SSE ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF 3Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE...BEGINNING TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. AND BY IMPACT...THERE REALLY HASN/T BEEN MUCH. A SOLID
LAYER OF DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE...WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION POINT. AS A RESULT...CIGS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE VFR AND RAIN HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT...WITH HIGHEST QPF
MEASUREMENTS ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH SO FAR.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST COMES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE
BEHIND BOUNDARY...IN ADDITION TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
SO DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE VALLEY
SPLITS. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY
NEARLY THE SURFACE...WITH A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN AIR IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE EXITING TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG CAA DURING THE NIGHT. THE STRUGGLE...THEREFORE
...WILL BE HOW WELL MODELS AND GUIDANCE CAN HANDLE THE CLOUD COVER
VS. CAA FOR LOW TEMPS. GUESSES ARE IT WON/T BE WELL.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN KY TO STILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STILL FORECAST TO SEE FREEZE
WARNING CRITERIA /BELOW 30 DEGREES/. HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE ANY
CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD EASILY BOTTOM OUT LOWER
THAN FORECAST OR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. WILL
DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO KY
TO ERODE AWAY THE CLOUD COVER AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDING
TAKING HOLD ALOFT...EXPECT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS TO FALL TO
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...WHILE STILL REMAINING NORTHERLY. WITH
SUCH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN KY. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ABLE TO COMMENCE TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION TO THE S LATE IN THE NIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT IN MANY OF THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS...PROMOTING A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...AND IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016
...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEVELOPING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING UP A DANGEROUS FREEZE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...PUTTING FRUIT TREES AND SENSITIVE PLANTS IN
DANGER.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LACKING ANY INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. IN FACT...DRY AIR
(MUCH LIKE EVERY SYSTEM IN THE PAST MONTH) MAY EAT AWAY AT
PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND WE MAY NOT END UP
WITH AS MUCH QPF AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. REGARDLESS...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A MEASURABLE RAIN FOR ALL AREAS. BRIEF SUBSIDENCE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER TO
THE AREA THIS SPRING. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PEGGED TO DROP TO AS
LOW AS -10C BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND AIR TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 20S...ON PURE COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BUILD AND CENTER ITSELF OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP AN EVEN COLDER MORNING AS SOME AREAS COULD
SNEAK INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
40...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS HOLD IN. A WARM UP IS ON TAB FOR SUNDAY
AS WE SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE TO 70 BY
MONDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AGAIN.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES.
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS. WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ANY
IMPACTS. SNOW CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
STRATOCU LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND IS LEADING TO AN MVFR OR LOW END OF VFR CEILING. THIS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
12Z. NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WILL HELP KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 15Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1247 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016
...Freeze Expected Tonight...
Forecast remains on track this evening with a wide temperature
gradient behind today`s cold front from N to S. Current temps are
running from around 40 north to the upper 50s S. These temps will
continue to fall off through the overnight on a steady N wind. Have
been keeping an eye on stratocu deck dropping out of the north
through this evening, and what potential impacts these clouds might
have on the temp forecast toward dawn. Overall, thinking remains
unchanged with shallow moisture layer between 900-950 mb that will
slide across our eastern CWA through late evening. Then as low level
winds veer to NE through the pre-dawn hours, clouds should begin to
push more west and get sheared apart. This should leave enough time
for some radiational cooling toward dawn as dew points drop into the
low and mid 20s. Am a bit concerned that clouds could linger across
the eastern half of the CWA, but this is more of an advection
scenario than radiational cooling getting us below freezing. So,
will leave the Freeze Warning as is, and will continue SPS for
Patchy Frost across south central KY. Areas of frost are still
expected in the Freeze Warning region.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016
...Freeze Expected Tonight...
As of mid afternoon, a surface front bisected the forecast area and
was analyzed from eastern Kentucky to southwest Kentucky. There was
a nice temperature gradient across the area with low 70s in the
south while southern Indiana had readings in the mid 50s and north
winds gusting 20 to 25 mph. A broken line of light showers and
sprinkles has moved through today, and for the most part amounted to
no more than a trace.
Forecast challenge in the short term is cloud trends tonight and its
impact on temperatures and the freeze potential. Latest visible
satellite shows an extensive area of strato-cumulus over the lower
Great Lakes. Some of this is diurnal and will dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating, but some clouds will try to spill south
into the northern Bluegrass tonight. The moisture is rooted between
900-950 mb, and model forecasts for this layer show at least some
clouds hanging on through portions of the night. The HRRR cloud
cover forecast has handled today`s stratus across the north fairly
well, so leaned on it for tonight. It shows clouds breaking up and
dissipating between 3-6z, which will leave plenty of time for
temperatures to fall.
The low dewpoints and light winds tonight add confidence for
temperatures to reach the 28 to 32 degree range where the current
Freeze Warning exists. Outside of the warning, temperatures will be
in the 33 to 35 range and could still see patchy frost. Will issue
a Special Weather Statement for those areas.
Tuesday will be a seasonably cool day but mostly sunny with perhaps
some upper-level clouds increasing late in the afternoon. Look for
highs in the low to mid 50s. Another chilly night is expected
Tuesday night with lows in the low 40s to the mid 30s across the
northern Bluegrass. For now, readings look to stay above freezing in
those areas.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016
The forecast highlights in the long term are a storm system for
Wednesday and Wednesday night, then turning unseasonably cold with a
few chances for freezes late in the work week and this upcoming
weekend.
The synoptic pattern Wednesday is expected to feature an upper level
shortwave trough over the central Plains while a surface low will
likely be across the Upper Midwest. With high pressure anchored over
the Carolinas, we`ll have increasing southerly flow and moisture
return. This system has trended slower with the front not crossing
the area until the mid afternoon to late evening hours.
Precipitation chances were adjusted accordingly, with the highest
chances starting in the afternoon. The Bluegrass region may remain
dry until the late afternoon. Highs should make it up to the mid 60s.
Behind this front, much cooler air filters in for Thursday with
highs in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow aloft with quick passing
shortwaves will bring a few chances for showers Thursday into Friday
night. During the day, some of these showers may bring some small
graupel given the steeper low level lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft. At night, surface temperatures may be cold
enough to support some wet snowflakes. A couple of raw, cold April
days to round out the work week.
The potentially headline story will be the hard freeze potential
Friday and Saturday nights. Friday night may be the coldest of the
period with lows forecast now in the mid 20s to low 30s. Those with
agricultural interests will need to monitor these days closely over
the coming week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2016
A deck of MVFR stratocu clouds continues to persist across LEX this
morning. This deck will occasionally raise above MVFR through the
first few hours of the TAF period. High pressure will be building in
from the north and this is expected to eventually scatter out this
ceiling. A few to scattered lower clouds will cross SDF, but do not
expect a ceiling to form there. After this deck scatters out, only a
few to scattered clouds are expected at the terminals through the
remainder of the TAF period.
Winds have begun to relax tonight, though occasional gusts will
continue for the next few hours. Winds will become lighter through
the morning. They will also shift from northerly to easterly by mid
day.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LINGERING UPR
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A MEAN RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG OVER LOWER MI AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/APX
RAOBS ARE BRINGING DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. SLY FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HI AND OFF LK MI...SOME LLVL MSTR
DEPICTED ON THE GRB/APX RAOBS AND LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CWA WITH H85 TEMPS STILL ARND -12C HAVE RESULTED IN
SOME SC OVER THE E HALF. TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUICKLY FM EARLY MRNG
RECORD LOWS AND WELL INTO THE 30S./LO 40S OVER THE WRN CWA UNDER THE
SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES EVEN THOUGH HI
CLDS ARE SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF A POTENT SHRTWV MOVING E THRU
THE NRN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE CAUSED 00Z-12Z HGT FALLS UP TO 150M
IN MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THE SLY FLOW/WAA BTWN THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO
AND THE HI PRES TO THE SE ARE STRENGTHENING...VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED
BLO H65 ON THE 12Z MPX AND INL RAOBS /H7 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 33C AT
INL/ HAS RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN SO FAR. A BAND
OF GENERALLY LGT PCPN IS MOVING THRU NE MN/NW WI AND NEARING FAR WRN
LK SUP.
FCST FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS...SN AMNTS AND GOING
WINTER WX ADVYS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS THE STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/
SFC LO THAT WL MOVE INTO MN OVERNGT TAPS MOISTER AIR TO THE S AND
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/
SHARPENS UNDER INCRSG UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCRS AND OVERSPREAD UPR MI WSW-ENE.
ALTHOUGH THE PCPN MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME RA AT THE ONSET OVER THE
W...WHERE THE PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE ARND 22Z AT IRONWOOD...DUE TO OBSVD
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS CLOSER TO TIME OF PEAK HEATING...
EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC/NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN SN FOR THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE TNGT. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR 3.5 G/KG
SUGGESTS UP TO 3 INCHES OF SN WL FALL DURING THE APPROXIMATELY 6HR
PERIOD OF SHARPEST WAA FORCING...WITH TOTAL SN TNGT UP TO 4-5 INCHES
AS THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/DPVA ARRIVES LATER AND KEEPS THE PCPN GOING
EVEN AFTER THE SHARPER WAA SHIFTS TO THE SE LATE. CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF HINTS AT HEAVIEST PCPN FALLING ACRS MAINLY SW OF A LINE FM
HOUGHTON TO MARQUETTE AND MANISTIQUE. THIS SN WL BE WET AND HEAVY AS
FCST SDNGS SHOW A RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ CENTERED ABOVE 10K FT.
WED... ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PCPN INTENSITY WL BE DIMINISHED
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN WAA FOCUS...PERSISTENT UPR DVGC/
DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
SLIDING TOWARD WI WL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT SN THRU THE MRNG.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV IN THE AFTN AND ARRIVAL OF
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...POPS AND SN INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
FURTHER. THE LINGERING PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AND STEADY OVER
THE NCENTRAL...WHERE CYC NNE FLOW ARND SFC LO SHIFTING INTO LOWER MI
WL MAINTAIN A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DESPITE MARGINAL H85
TEMPS NEAR -6C FOR LK ENHANCEMENT. WITH DIMINISHING PCPN INTENSITY
AND INCRSG SUN ANGLE...THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH RA OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE HI TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST ARPCH 40 UNDER DOWNSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD.
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE NE
WIND BELTS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S EXITING SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF LATE WED NIGHT AS MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AOB 4KFT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RDGG MOVING IN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WED EVENING FOR MAINLY THE FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MQT AND BARAGA COUNTIES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF
TO FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY FZDZ AS NAM SNDGS SHOW SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
BELOW -10C ISOTHERM. WITH MODELS INDICATING WEAK RDGG MOVING OVER THE
AREA...THU SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW DIURNALLY
AIDED FLURRIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO WHICH MAY BRUSH THE WESTERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY WILL CROSS THE CWA/NORTHERN WI AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE...RISING INVERSIONS...LOWERING
H8 TEMPS...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWY
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT SEVERAL
INCHES OF LES FOR MAINLY THE N TO NE WIND SNOW BELTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS
SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING EXITING EAST FRI EVENING
WITH DEPARTING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE...H8 TEMPS WILL STILL BE LOWERING
TO -18 TO -19C IN PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE INCHES OF FLUFFY LES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR N-NW SNOWBELTS
AS DGZ REMAINS FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LES COMES TO AN END SAT NIGHT AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS BACK SW. MIXED PRECIP FROM WAA
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING ESE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE WEST IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL NEAR -15C. THE COLD AIR AND ASSOC
MIXING/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND
LIGHT LES ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WL GIVE WAY TO IFR AND
EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS THIS EVNG/OVERNGT AS SN IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LO
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS OVERSRPEADS UPR MI. SINCE THE
EXPECTED SSE WIND WL DOWNSLOPE AT IWD...THAT LOCATION MAY SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF THE LOWER VSBYS. ALTHOUGH THE SN INTENSITY IS LIKELY
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE TNGT/WED MRNG...IFR CONDITIONS AND
ESPECIALLY CIGS WL PREDOMINATE THRU 05/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS COULD APPROACH LOW END GALES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE WINDS LOOK TO BE 30 KNOTS OR UNDER FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009>012-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF OVER
THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
THERE IS A WEAK SHRTWV PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS...AND THE
COMBINATION OF SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME
MOISTENING OFF LK SUP OF VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 12Z YPL RAOB
/PWAT 0.06 INCH/...AND DAYTIME HEATING UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF IS
MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CLDS SOME ISOLD INSTABILITY SN SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE THE MOISTENING OFF THE LK IS MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE LLVL NNE FLOW TO THE SE OF HI PRES OVER MANITOBA.
AS IS COMMON IN THE SPRING WITH INCRSG SUN ANGLE THAT AMPLIFIES
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND...SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR OVER AND
NEAR LK SUP. WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -15C AND THE INSTABILITY SC...TEMPS
THIS AFTN ARE WELL BLO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 20S. BUT SKIES ARE
MOCLR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP OVER NW ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE
DRIER AIR. MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG WERE BLO ZERO AT MANY PLACES IN NW
ONTARIO AND AS LO AS -20F CLOSER TO THE HI CENTER. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE PAC NW CAUSED 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 150M IN THAT AREA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON CLD/POPS TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTN...MIN TEMPS TNGT AND THEN POPS LATE ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE PAC NW.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN
OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVNG WITH LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/MORE ACYC FLOW AS WELL AS VERY DRY
UPSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD BRING CLRG THIS EVNG. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...MAINTAINED FCST MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. RETURN SLY FLOW OVERNT OVER THE
FAR W ON THE WRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES MAY LIMIT THE TEMP FALL IN
THAT AREA A BIT.
TUE...ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OFF MOSUNNY...EXPECT INCRSG CLDS
DOWNSTREAM OF AREA OF DVLPG WAA UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BTWN HI
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE
NRN PLAINS. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY CU/SC DVLPG OVER
ESPECIALLY THE E HALF WITH SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING SLY FLOW OFF
LK MI UNDER LINGERING AREA OF LOWER H85 TEMPS NEAR -12C AT NEWBERRY
AT 18Z. BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PCPN WL ARRIVE
OVER THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER TIMING
GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACCENTUATED BY DOWNSLOPE S WIND OVER
THE W. SINCE AFTN TEMPS WL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 30S/LO 40S OVER THE
W WITH DOWNSLOPE SLY FLOW...THE PTYPE WL BE SN MIXED WITH RA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016
ATTENTION IS LARGELY ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC-
850MB LOW MOVES S OF THE AREA. WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE FAR W AND SCENTRAL) TO MOVE
IN LATE TUE...THEN SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN FAR SCENTRAL) IS FORCED
PRIMARILY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE N SIDE
OF THE LOW WED MORNING INTO WED AFTERNOON...WITH UPSLOPE
FORCING/PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO WED NIGHT.
LOOKING FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL EARLY WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN WED MORNING. OVERALL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF WET...HEAVY
SNOW. HAVE STORM TOTAL OF 3-5 INCHES OVER ALL BUT NCENTRAL UPPER MI
WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 6 INCHES. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY AS EVEN THE 6 INCH
AMOUNTS FALL OVER LONGER THAN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THE HEADLINES.
LIGHT N-NE WIND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTS THE FAR WRN CWA. AN UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF LES
WITH IT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18C...BUT DIFFER ON HOW
FAST TO BRING THE COLDER AIR IN. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT WIND
DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CHANGE WHERE THE LES FOCUSES. SHOULD SEE
RAMPED UP LES THU NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. ALSO SHOULD SEE SOME
AREA WIDE SNOWFALL...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH AND TRACK. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016
WITH DRY HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRES MOVES OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS OF THE ONSET
OF SNOW...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016
NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...S
WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT UNDER
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTEM DIVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE LO MOVES TO THE E OVER LOWER MI ON WED...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE AND REMAIN AS HI AS 25 TO 30 KTS. N WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL ON THU INTO SAT ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF HI PERS BUILDING TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1016 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
A STRONG UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT AND SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEING WRAPPED AROUND THESE
LOWS SO CLOUDS WILL BE FILLING INTO OUR EAST SHORTLY. RADAR IS
SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST AREAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST SO I HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AREAS. A STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE IMMEDIATE BILLINGS VICINITY BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
AROUND 50 MPH FOR MANY AREAS AND WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH TODAY. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE NOW LOOKS TO BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLIER
THINKING OF GUSTS TO 70 MPH DO NOT LOOK AS LIKELY. IN ANY
CASE...VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA MOVING EASTWARD
AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA BECOMING OCCLUDED
WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR AN EXCEPTIONALLY
WINDY DAY WITH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IMPACTING
THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ABOUT WIND FIELDS
4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT 850 MB SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH OF 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.
LATEST TREND IS TO POSSIBLY PULL THE HIGHEST WINDS A BIT NORTHWARD
BUT AT THE SAME TIME LESS PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED SO BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW MOST ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING AND MIXING DOWN OF
MOMENTUM. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE HRRR IS SUPPORTING THE
EXPECTED WINDS SO MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD.
FOR TODAY DID REDUCE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL ZONES AS THE MODELS PINWHEEL A DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL TODAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING
AROUND 50. ONE MINOR CONCERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS SOME HUMIDITY COULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT FIRE ACTIVITY BUT WINDOW OF
ALIGNMENT IS FAIRLY SHORT.
WEDNESDAY SEES STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MIXING INCREASES. A WEAKENING FRONT TRIES
TO BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
LOOK TO HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO PRODUCE MOISTURE GIVEN ANTICIPATED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
HEIGHTS RISE TO END THE WEEK AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING PRODUCING THE WARMEST DAY ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY ONWARD. THE PROBLEM
INVOLVES AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THE GFS TAKES THE ENERGY...WEAKENS IT DRAMATICALLY...AND MOVES IT
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AND GENERATE SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW FOR POPS AND COOLER
WEATHER. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...CUTS A LOW OFF OVER
OREGON AND SENDS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR QUITE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE
PATTERN AND WILL THEREFORE NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER WITH LOW POPS. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55-60KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME
SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH THE RAIN EAST OF MILES CITY TOWARD
BAKER AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THERE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. TWH/RMS/HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 037/069 045/070 042/075 047/079 041/059 034/058
4/W 10/N 10/U 00/U 01/B 33/W 11/B
LVM 052 032/065 036/072 038/075 043/076 037/057 031/058
4/W 10/N 00/U 00/U 02/W 44/W 22/W
HDN 057 034/072 041/070 038/076 042/080 040/060 032/060
6/W 10/N 10/B 00/U 01/B 33/W 11/B
MLS 050 034/069 041/064 037/071 044/077 040/059 031/056
8/W 31/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/B
4BQ 053 032/068 040/063 035/071 041/077 038/060 030/057
7/W 40/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/B
BHK 053 028/063 035/059 032/064 037/073 037/057 028/053
7/W 61/N 10/N 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/B
SHR 053 032/066 039/064 035/072 041/074 039/059 031/057
4/W 10/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 33/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29>39-41-42-57-58.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
329 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA MOVING EASTWARD
AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA BECOMING OCCLUDED
WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR AN EXCEPTIONALLY
WINDY DAY WITH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IMPACTING
THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ABOUT WIND FIELDS
4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT 850 MB SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH OF 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.
LATEST TREND IS TO POSSIBLY PULL THE HIGHEST WINDS A BIT NORTHWARD
BUT AT THE SAME TIME LESS PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED SO BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW MOST ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING AND MIXING DOWN OF
MOMENTUM. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE HRRR IS SUPPORTING THE
EXPECTED WINDS SO MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD.
FOR TODAY DID REDUCE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL ZONES AS THE MODELS PINWHEEL A DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL TODAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING
AROUND 50. ONE MINOR CONCERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS SOME HUMIDITY COULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT FIRE ACTIVITY BUT WINDOW OF
ALIGNMENT IS FAIRLY SHORT.
WEDNESDAY SEES STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MIXING INCREASES. A WEAKENING FRONT TRIES
TO BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
LOOK TO HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO PRODUCE MOISTURE GIVEN ANTICIPATED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
HEIGHTS RISE TO END THE WEEK AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING PRODUCING THE WARMEST DAY ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY ONWARD. THE PROBLEM
INVOLVES AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THE GFS TAKES THE ENERGY...WEAKENS IT DRAMATICALLY...AND MOVES IT
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AND GENERATE SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW FOR POPS AND COOLER
WEATHER. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...CUTS A LOW OFF OVER
OREGON AND SENDS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR QUITE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE
PATTERN AND WILL THEREFORE NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER WITH LOW POPS. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55-60KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
MAINLY LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH
THE RAIN EAST OF MILES CITY TOWARD BAKER AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THERE. SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 037/069 045/070 042/075 047/079 041/059 034/058
2/W 10/N 10/U 00/U 01/B 33/W 11/B
LVM 052 032/065 036/072 038/075 043/076 037/057 031/058
4/W 10/N 00/U 00/U 02/W 44/W 22/W
HDN 057 034/072 041/070 038/076 042/080 040/060 032/060
5/W 10/N 10/B 00/U 01/B 33/W 11/B
MLS 050 034/069 041/064 037/071 044/077 040/059 031/056
8/W 31/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/B
4BQ 053 032/068 040/063 035/071 041/077 038/060 030/057
8/W 40/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/B
BHK 053 028/063 035/059 032/064 037/073 037/057 028/053
6/W 61/N 10/N 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/B
SHR 053 032/066 039/064 035/072 041/074 039/059 031/057
4/W 10/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 33/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29>39-41-42-57-58.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
405 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES
TO END THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
EACH DAY. AND AFTER INITIAL BOUT WITH PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW CHANCES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NORTH/SOUTH FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING WHILE INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AS
COOLER SURFACE AIR INVADES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL
DATA SUGGEST FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 80 BY 00Z. MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS PER SPC DAY1
OUTLOOK. APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVERSPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL GIVEN 50KT
OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER IS A MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS SOUNDINGS
HAVE THAT CLASSIC LOADED GUN LOOK DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AS JET
SEGMENT/VORT MAX OVERRIDES COOLER SURFACE AIR. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
EAST IN DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. COOLER NORTHWEST
WINDS FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AND THOSE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. 850
WINDS OF 45 OT 55KT AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
SOUNDING SUGGEST EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PUSH SURFACE WINDS
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 50 POSSIBLE IN OUR
NORTH.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUITE A BIT LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA. A SIMILAR SCENARIO
IS FORECAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH EACH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRECLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. THE BEST CHANCE BEYOND THIS EVENING WILL
BE WEDNESDAY WHEN COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME COULD
TRIGGER A SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
THE 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...EACH
DAY...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
A SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD. DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS DAMPENED RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY FLOW
PATTERN FOR US...BUT GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
COULD FIRE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POINTS AT
EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW SETTLES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THEN...AND COOLER 50S OR 60S TO START
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
SFC CDFNT WILL BE MOVG ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN AT KOFK
AND EARLY THIS EVNG AT KOMA/KLNK. SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALONG WITH GUSTY S/SE WINDS. WE WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS FOR SCT SHRA EXPECTED TO DVLP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM LATE THIS AFTN AND CONT INTO THE EVNG...WHICH MAY
AFFECT ALL 3 TAF SITES. WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS
LATEST GUIDANCE INDCS THESE WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
KLNK/KOMA SITES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND CONT THROUGH THE MRNG ON WED WITH AN INCREASE IN A VFR SC
DECK.
&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO SHOW 850-
700MB WINDS OF 65KT TO 75KT DESCENDING ON THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
VERY DRY MAY LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING MITIGATING THE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS. A BLEND OF THE MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG5 WIND GUSTS PRODUCES 55
MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NRN NEB TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN
WHICH IS HOLDING THE FCST BACK SOME. THE BETTER LOCATION WOULD BE
THE NEB PANHANDLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS
PLUS BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS IS CLOSE TO
THE RAP MODEL.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS NRN NEB. THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRODUCE STRONG OR PERHAPS LOCALIZED HIGH WIND GUSTS AND THE NAM
SHOWS ADIABATIC MIXING.
LASTLY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TODAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN THIS AFTN.
THIS TROF MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. K INDICES IN THE
NAM AND RAP ARE LESS THAN 30C.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
POST FRONTAL CAA AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER AT LEAST
INITIALLY AS STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS MIXED TO THE SFC...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOCUSES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN IN THE EVENT A
RANGE FIRE IS ON-GOING...PLUS THE AIRMASS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. WE OPTED TO KEEP THE RFW GOING UNTIL 15Z
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WELL CURED FUELS. THE RFW MAY HOWEVER NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE
SHOWN TO LAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA PAST 21Z AND RH IS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING.
SEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. ATTM...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS AS THE MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE VALUES SLIGHTLY.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK
AND INTO SATURDAY...THE PLAINS WILL BOOKEND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SOME COOLER AIR IS RECYCLED WEST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...TO JUST THE LOWER 50S
OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST ATOP THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S /EAST/ AND LOWER
70S /WEST/. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...AND WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST...ANY WIND EVENT MAY SPELL TROUBLE FOR
CONTAINMENT OF RANGELAND FIRE.
LATE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE MODELS
DEPICT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...COMING FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS OUR BEST SHOT AT QPF...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE QPF IS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE. WILL LEAVE THE CR_INT AS IS WHICH SUGGESTS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 45KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH 40KT GUSTS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. COOLER MORE MOIST
PACIFIC AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS DRY AIR LATE TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA VALLEY FIRE ZONES. WEST WINDS
INCREASE SHARPLY TO 25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT. DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE TEENS. HUMIDITY INCREASES TONIGHT BUT WINDS INCREASE
AS 850-700MB WINDS REACH 65KT TO 75KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST TODAY...AND THE FACT
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY AS THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONCERN IS
THAT IF A RANGE FIRE IS GOING...OR THERE/S CARRYOVER...THE EXTREME
WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE SPREAD DESPITE DECENT RH
RECOVERY. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS...NEAR CRITICAL RH IS
FORECAST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SOME OF THE MORE RECENT LARGE RANGES FIRES WITHIN
THE CWA HAVE MADE SOME OF THE LARGEST RUNS AT NIGHT WHEN WINDS
PEAKED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC/JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1233 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE LOW ON
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE IT WOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
WHILE THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO AROUND 50
KTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO MIX TO THOSE HEIGHTS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
IF WIND ISN/T YOUR THING...THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WON/T BE VERY
ENJOYABLE. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH SOLID DOWNWARD MOTION
WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BOTH DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 45 MPH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE LOOK SOLID TOO. WINDS SHOULD BE
SUB WARNING LEVELS...BUT UNRELENTING NONE-THE-LESS. THE WIND WILL
DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK THINGS UP
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AS THEY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
2ND ISSUE IN THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE STRONG
WINDS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRIER AIR NOT ONLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA BUT MAY MIX DOWN. THERE IS OFTEN A TENDENCY FOR THINGS TO
BE DRIER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT GIVEN THIS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF LESS 25 PERCENT LOOK WIDESPREAD THANKS TO TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP
3 TO 6 DEGREES. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW BUT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK. MOST
RECENT DAY 4 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK /THURSDAY/ HAS OUR AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SUCH POTENTIAL.
A THIRD ISSUE IS SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WARMER START TO SPRING...PARTS
OF THE FORECAST MAY BE ON THE CUSP OF SOME POTENTIAL HARM DUE TO
NEAR FREEZING/FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS IS A BIG MORE AMBIGUOUS
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S
FRIDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BRING IN SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. AGAIN...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FINALLY...AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON THE WEEKEND WE MAY
SEE A SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW...TO ONE WHICH COULD
BRING AT LEAST SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ISN/T
GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT AND STILL CHANGES ONGOING. AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A SUPER PRECIPITATION SETUP BUT...THAT MAY
CHANGE. FOR NOW...ROUGHLY 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES CENTERED ON
MONDAY SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
SFC CDFNT WILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SWITCHING THE S/SW WINDS OVER TO NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF
SITES SEEMS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WED WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO SHOW 850-
700MB WINDS OF 65KT TO 75KT DESCENDING ON THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
VERY DRY MAY LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING MITIGATING THE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS. A BLEND OF THE MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG5 WIND GUSTS PRODUCES 55
MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NRN NEB TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN
WHICH IS HOLDING THE FCST BACK SOME. THE BETTER LOCATION WOULD BE
THE NEB PANHANDLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS
PLUS BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS IS CLOSE TO
THE RAP MODEL.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS NRN NEB. THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRODUCE STRONG OR PERHAPS LOCALIZED HIGH WIND GUSTS AND THE NAM
SHOWS ADIABATIC MIXING.
LASTLY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TODAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN THIS AFTN.
THIS TROF MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. K INDICES IN THE
NAM AND RAP ARE LESS THAN 30C.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
POST FRONTAL CAA AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER AT LEAST
INITIALLY AS STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS MIXED TO THE SFC...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOCUSES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN IN THE EVENT A
RANGE FIRE IS ON-GOING...PLUS THE AIRMASS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. WE OPTED TO KEEP THE RFW GOING UNTIL 15Z
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WELL CURED FUELS. THE RFW MAY HOWEVER NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE
SHOWN TO LAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA PAST 21Z AND RH IS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING.
SEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. ATTM...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS AS THE MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE VALUES SLIGHTLY.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK
AND INTO SATURDAY...THE PLAINS WILL BOOKEND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SOME COOLER AIR IS RECYCLED WEST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...TO JUST THE LOWER 50S
OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST ATOP THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S /EAST/ AND LOWER
70S /WEST/. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...AND WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST...ANY WIND EVENT MAY SPELL TROUBLE FOR
CONTAINMENT OF RANGELAND FIRE.
LATE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE MODELS
DEPICT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...COMING FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS OUR BEST SHOT AT QPF...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE QPF IS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE. WILL LEAVE THE CR_INT AS IS WHICH SUGGESTS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF KCTB...WILL
RACE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTS TO
45 KT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE SD BORDER. WINDS 30035G45KT.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. COOLER MORE MOIST
PACIFIC AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS DRY AIR LATE TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA VALLEY FIRE ZONES. WEST WINDS
INCREASE SHARPLY TO 25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT. DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE TEENS. HUMIDITY INCREASES TONIGHT BUT WINDS INCREASE
AS 850-700MB WINDS REACH 65KT TO 75KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST TODAY...AND THE FACT
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY AS THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONCERN IS
THAT IF A RANGE FIRE IS GOING...OR THERE/S CARRYOVER...THE EXTREME
WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE SPREAD DESPITE DECENT RH
RECOVERY. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS...NEAR CRITICAL RH IS
FORECAST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SOME OF THE MORE RECENT LARGE RANGES FIRES WITHIN
THE CWA HAVE MADE SOME OF THE LARGEST RUNS AT NIGHT WHEN WINDS
PEAKED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC/JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
617 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE LOW ON
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE IT WOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
WHILE THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO AROUND 50
KTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO MIX TO THOSE HEIGHTS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
IF WIND ISN/T YOUR THING...THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WON/T BE VERY
ENJOYABLE. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH SOLID DOWNWARD MOTION
WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BOTH DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 45 MPH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE LOOK SOLID TOO. WINDS SHOULD BE
SUB WARNING LEVELS...BUT UNRELENTING NONE-THE-LESS. THE WIND WILL
DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK THINGS UP
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AS THEY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
2ND ISSUE IN THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE STRONG
WINDS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRIER AIR NOT ONLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA BUT MAY MIX DOWN. THERE IS OFTEN A TENDENCY FOR THINGS TO
BE DRIER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT GIVEN THIS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF LESS 25 PERCENT LOOK WIDESPREAD THANKS TO TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP
3 TO 6 DEGREES. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW BUT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK. MOST
RECENT DAY 4 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK /THURSDAY/ HAS OUR AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SUCH POTENTIAL.
A THIRD ISSUE IS SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WARMER START TO SPRING...PARTS
OF THE FORECAST MAY BE ON THE CUSP OF SOME POTENTIAL HARM DUE TO
NEAR FREEZING/FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS IS A BIG MORE AMBIGUOUS
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S
FRIDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BRING IN SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. AGAIN...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FINALLY...AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON THE WEEKEND WE MAY
SEE A SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW...TO ONE WHICH COULD
BRING AT LEAST SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ISN/T
GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT AND STILL CHANGES ONGOING. AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A SUPER PRECIPITATION SETUP BUT...THAT MAY
CHANGE. FOR NOW...ROUGHLY 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES CENTERED ON
MONDAY SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND TURN WINDS FROM SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AT THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO SHOW 850-
700MB WINDS OF 65KT TO 75KT DESCENDING ON THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
VERY DRY MAY LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING MITIGATING THE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS. A BLEND OF THE MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG5 WIND GUSTS PRODUCES 55
MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NRN NEB TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN
WHICH IS HOLDING THE FCST BACK SOME. THE BETTER LOCATION WOULD BE
THE NEB PANHANDLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS
PLUS BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS IS CLOSE TO
THE RAP MODEL.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS NRN NEB. THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRODUCE STRONG OR PERHAPS LOCALIZED HIGH WIND GUSTS AND THE NAM
SHOWS ADIABATIC MIXING.
LASTLY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TODAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN THIS AFTN.
THIS TROF MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. K INDICES IN THE
NAM AND RAP ARE LESS THAN 30C.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
POST FRONTAL CAA AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER AT LEAST
INITIALLY AS STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS MIXED TO THE SFC...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOCUSES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN IN THE EVENT A
RANGE FIRE IS ON-GOING...PLUS THE AIRMASS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. WE OPTED TO KEEP THE RFW GOING UNTIL 15Z
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WELL CURED FUELS. THE RFW MAY HOWEVER NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE
SHOWN TO LAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA PAST 21Z AND RH IS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING.
SEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. ATTM...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS AS THE MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE VALUES SLIGHTLY.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK
AND INTO SATURDAY...THE PLAINS WILL BOOKEND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SOME COOLER AIR IS RECYCLED WEST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...TO JUST THE LOWER 50S
OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST ATOP THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S /EAST/ AND LOWER
70S /WEST/. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...AND WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST...ANY WIND EVENT MAY SPELL TROUBLE FOR
CONTAINMENT OF RANGELAND FIRE.
LATE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE MODELS
DEPICT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...COMING FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS OUR BEST SHOT AT QPF...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE QPF IS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE. WILL LEAVE THE CR_INT AS IS WHICH SUGGESTS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT AGL. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 45 KTS 1500 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL AND 1800 FT AGL
AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 12000 FT AGL WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE TUES AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS TUES AFTN...AND AROUND 30 KTS TUES EVE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. COOLER MORE MOIST
PACIFIC AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS DRY AIR LATE TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA VALLEY FIRE ZONES. WEST WINDS
INCREASE SHARPLY TO 25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT. DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE TEENS. HUMIDITY INCREASES TONIGHT BUT WINDS INCREASE
AS 850-700MB WINDS REACH 65KT TO 75KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST TODAY...AND THE FACT
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY AS THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONCERN IS
THAT IF A RANGE FIRE IS GOING...OR THERE/S CARRYOVER...THE EXTREME
WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE SPREAD DESPITE DECENT RH
RECOVERY. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS...NEAR CRITICAL RH IS
FORECAST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SOME OF THE MORE RECENT LARGE RANGES FIRES WITHIN
THE CWA HAVE MADE SOME OF THE LARGEST RUNS AT NIGHT WHEN WINDS
PEAKED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC/JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
339 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE LOW ON
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE IT WOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
WHILE THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO AROUND 50
KTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO MIX TO THOSE HEIGHTS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
IF WIND ISN/T YOUR THING...THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WON/T BE VERY
ENJOYABLE. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH SOLID DOWNWARD MOTION
WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BOTH DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 45 MPH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE LOOK SOLID TOO. WINDS SHOULD BE
SUB WARNING LEVELS...BUT UNRELENTING NONE-THE-LESS. THE WIND WILL
DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK THINGS UP
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AS THEY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
2ND ISSUE IN THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE STRONG
WINDS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRIER AIR NOT ONLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA BUT MAY MIX DOWN. THERE IS OFTEN A TENDENCY FOR THINGS TO
BE DRIER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT GIVEN THIS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF LESS 25 PERCENT LOOK WIDESPREAD THANKS TO TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP
3 TO 6 DEGREES. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW BUT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK. MOST
RECENT DAY 4 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK /THURSDAY/ HAS OUR AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SUCH POTENTIAL.
A THIRD ISSUE IS SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WARMER START TO SPRING...PARTS
OF THE FORECAST MAY BE ON THE CUSP OF SOME POTENTIAL HARM DUE TO
NEAR FREEZING/FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS IS A BIG MORE AMBIGUOUS
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S
FRIDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BRING IN SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. AGAIN...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FINALLY...AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON THE WEEKEND WE MAY
SEE A SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW...TO ONE WHICH COULD
BRING AT LEAST SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ISN/T
GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT AND STILL CHANGES ONGOING. AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A SUPER PRECIPITATION SETUP BUT...THAT MAY
CHANGE. FOR NOW...ROUGHLY 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES CENTERED ON
MONDAY SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
CLOUDS SHOULD BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE A FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH AND GRADUALLY TURNS WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS SMALL ENOUGH THAT HAVE
LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1051 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
CLOSE TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENE AND
WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK...MOVING OFF THE CAPE
FEAR COAST MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WERE SKIRTING THE
CAPE FEAR COAST THIS EVE AS THEY MOVED TO THE N.
OUR AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
WILL LIFT NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THU MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR A BRIEF TIME VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. S TO SW
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AND THIS WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL PEAK JUST OVER 1 INCH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN... THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
A QUICK HITTER...BUT UP TO A QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
WINDS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING...15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STABILIZE THIS EVE WITH A
TENDENCY TO EITHER HOLD STEADY OR RISE TOWARD MORNING UNDER THICK
CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...CERTAINLY WELL
ABOVE THE LOWS OF LAST NIGHT. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
FAST PACED CHANGES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY
THU BUT COLD ADVECTION IS INITIALLY LIMITED. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HELPS DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT...CLEARING OUT SKIES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT STARTING LATE THU NIGHT COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...THE BEGINNINGS OF A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.
MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND FROM TIME
TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE OF
THE STRONGER WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
AHEAD OF THE WAVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. ONCE AGAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A NON-ZERO POP BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET. WHILE
IT IS TRUE STRONG WAVES TEND TO PRODUCE PRECIP WHEN IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AND THE CORE OF THE
WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. THE SECOND WAVE WILL HELP DRAG AN
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING A
DRY COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
W-NW FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NW-N THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL
A DEEP FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR MASS WILL
COME FROM WELL INTO NORTHWEST CANADA PULLING DOWN A BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AND
DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT OVER FORECAST AREA LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN GUSTY NW-N WINDS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TO HOW LOW THE
TEMPS WILL GET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE 850 TEMPS HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY WITH LOWEST READINGS AROUND -4-5C INSTEAD OF -8C.
THERE SHOULD BE PLACES THAT REACH BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR CROPS OR PLANTS MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AND THEREFORE REMAIN ALERT FOR UPDATES OF POSSIBLE
FREEZE.
CAA WILL CUT OFF COME SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS COULD AFFECT EITHER SAT NIGHT
LOW OR SUN NIGHT LOW AS ANY DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT NIGHT
WILL PRODUCE LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERALL WOULD THINK THIS WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON SUN NIGHT TEMPS BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
BRING CENTER OVERHEAD SUN AFTN AND THEN A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN MOISTURE
RETURN AND A RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN
NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSER TO 40 SUN NIGHT.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT NEAR 60 FOR SATURDAY AND THEN NEAR 70 BY MONDAY UNDER BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THOUGH. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUES
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE TUES. TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE BACK UP
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEDGE SETTING UP
FOR MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND PCP POST
FROPA ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO THU NIGHT.
A S TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50+ KT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO PICK
UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PEAKING IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE WITH A FEW 9 FT SEAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THU MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SCA ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THU AND POSSIBLY PART OF THU NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY THU BUT WINDS ARE
SLOW TO VEER TO WESTERLY. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
APPROACH 30 KT SUSTAINED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS REMAIN
20 TO 25 KT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO PINCHED GRADIENT.
WESTERLY FLOW DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THU NIGHT AND GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX. THIS ALLOWS FOR SEAS DROPPING UNDER 6 FT...ACROSS
SC WATERS FIRST AND THEN ACROSS NC WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA HEADLINE FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH 25 KT. OFFSHORE WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT DESPITE
SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE UP AROUND SCA THRESHOLDS
EARLY SATURDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH A
STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW. STRONG NW-N FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL MIXED UNDER
STRONG CAA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT CLOSER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO RELAX. EXPECT WIND TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY
SUN AFTN WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS. BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE TO S AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS. BY
MON NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP PACE REACHING UP TO 10 TO
15 KT PUSHING SEAS BACK UP A FT OR TWO LEAVING MOST SEAS IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE BY TUES MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
745 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
CLOSE TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...OUR AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
MID-LEVEL FEATURE WILL LIFT NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THU MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A BRIEF TIME VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING. S TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AND THIS
WILL QUICKLY TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL PEAK JUST OVER 1 INCH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE A QUICK HITTER...BUT UP TO A QUARTER TO
ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THU
MORNING...15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STABILIZE THIS EVE WITH A
TENDENCY TO EITHER HOLD STEADY OR RISE TOWARD MORNING UNDER THICK
CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...CERTAINLY WELL
ABOVE THE LOWS OF LAST NIGHT. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
FAST PACED CHANGES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY
THU BUT COLD ADVECTION IS INITIALLY LIMITED. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HELPS DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT...CLEARING OUT SKIES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT STARTING LATE THU NIGHT COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...THE BEGINNINGS OF A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.
MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND FROM TIME
TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE OF
THE STRONGER WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
AHEAD OF THE WAVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. ONCE AGAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A NON-ZERO POP BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET. WHILE
IT IS TRUE STRONG WAVES TEND TO PRODUCE PRECIP WHEN IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AND THE CORE OF THE
WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. THE SECOND WAVE WILL HELP DRAG AN
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING A
DRY COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
W-NW FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NW-N THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL
A DEEP FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR MASS WILL
COME FROM WELL INTO NORTHWEST CANADA PULLING DOWN A BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AND
DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT OVER FORECAST AREA LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN GUSTY NW-N WINDS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TO HOW LOW THE
TEMPS WILL GET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE 850 TEMPS HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY WITH LOWEST READINGS AROUND -4-5C INSTEAD OF -8C.
THERE SHOULD BE PLACES THAT REACH BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR CROPS OR PLANTS MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AND THEREFORE REMAIN ALERT FOR UPDATES OF POSSIBLE
FREEZE.
CAA WILL CUT OFF COME SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS COULD AFFECT EITHER SAT NIGHT
LOW OR SUN NIGHT LOW AS ANY DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT NIGHT
WILL PRODUCE LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERALL WOULD THINK THIS WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON SUN NIGHT TEMPS BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
BRING CENTER OVERHEAD SUN AFTN AND THEN A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN MOISTURE
RETURN AND A RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN
NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSER TO 40 SUN NIGHT.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT NEAR 60 FOR SATURDAY AND THEN NEAR 70 BY MONDAY UNDER BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THOUGH. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUES
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE TUES. TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE BACK UP
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEDGE SETTING UP
FOR MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND PCP POST
FROPA ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO THU
NIGHT. A S TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50+ KT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO PICK
UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PEAKING IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE WITH A FEW 9 FT SEAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THU MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SCA ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THU AND POSSIBLY PART OF THU NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY THU BUT WINDS ARE
SLOW TO VEER TO WESTERLY. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
APPROACH 30 KT SUSTAINED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS REMAIN
20 TO 25 KT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO PINCHED GRADIENT.
WESTERLY FLOW DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THU NIGHT AND GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX. THIS ALLOWS FOR SEAS DROPPING UNDER 6 FT...ACROSS
SC WATERS FIRST AND THEN ACROSS NC WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA HEADLINE FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH 25 KT. OFFSHORE WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT DESPITE
SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE UP AROUND SCA THRESHOLDS
EARLY SATURDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH A
STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW. STRONG NW-N FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL MIXED UNDER
STRONG CAA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT CLOSER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO RELAX. EXPECT WIND TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY
SUN AFTN WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS. BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE TO S AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS. BY
MON NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP PACE REACHING UP TO 10 TO
15 KT PUSHING SEAS BACK UP A FT OR TWO LEAVING MOST SEAS IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE BY TUES MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1203 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A
COLD FRONT NOW WORKING THROUGH BILLINGS MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
THE OCCLUSION PROCESS ALREADY OCCURRING IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...AS DRIER AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO OCCLUDE AS IT REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
09-11Z AND THEN CENTRAL AREAS BY 15Z. THE LATEST HRRR IS TRACKING
WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS
TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TURTLE MOUNTAINS
NEAR 12Z TUESDAY/WITH PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO DIPPING INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 50MPH RANGE HAVE BEEN NOTED
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN BILLINGS AND THIS WILL MONITOR THIS AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
WILL BEGIN TO LOOK INTO CURRENT WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
AS ALL DATA COMES IN AND DECIDE WHAT TO DO IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH SHOWERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST HRRR/RAP ITERATIONS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...INHIBITING THEIR EASTWARD EXTENT THROUGH 12 UTC
TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE WEST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPDATED TEST PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND
CANADIAN ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS ALSO INCREASING...BEGINNING IN
THE WEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE ADJUSTED SKY COVER LOWER MOST AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALSO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE 12 AND INCOMING 18 UTC GLOBAL SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA PROPAGATING EAST AND
BECOMING STACKED BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS LOW
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WIND FIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM...WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE 12 UTC
ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN...SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST 0.5 KM
WINDS AROUND 50 KTS WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE 06 AND
12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE SOURCES...AND WOULD SUPPORT A BIT WEAKER
WIND FIELD. GIVEN AT LEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLY BEING MET...ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. DID ADD A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
SLOT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEDNESDAY CLIPPER
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE FILLING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 20Z
TUESDAY WEST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35KT TO
45KT AT KDIK AND KISN BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORTING RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ034-035-041-042-044>047-050.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY... WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH PRIMARILY MID-HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION BOTH
IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS FROM THE TAFS SUCH
AS SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AND/OR A SLIGHT BUT TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN
WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING... BUT THESE VARIATIONS WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADDING TIME GROUPS TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/
DISCUSSION...
05/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 TO 40 KTS AT SITES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT... A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN AFTER
06/00Z ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CONCLUDE THROUGH
06/09-12Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20
KTS RANGE. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST...
HOWEVER... HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ALSO... WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... SMOKE FROM ANY
WILDFIRES NEAR AIRFIELDS COULD RESULT IN A DROP TO MVFR.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CURRENTLY... 05/08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SWATH OF 40S DEW POINTS
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER... BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION TO BE A RUSE... WITH THE MOIST LAYER
CONFINED TO THE SURFACE... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. WITH THIS
EVIDENT... TYPICAL CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE HANDLING OF DEW POINTS IS
EXACERBATED. HOWEVER... GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY... LATEST
RUNS OF THE RAP AND OPERATIONAL HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE AN OVERALL
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT DEW POINT/RH EVOLUTION. IN ADDITION...
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING
SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE... WE/LL BEGIN TO MIX OUT QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
STEADILY THROUGH NOON... WITH SFC DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO LOW/MID
20S TO 30S BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES TANKING BY 2 TO 3 PM IN THE LOW TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOW
20S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. NOT TO BE OUT DONE BY THE DRY AIR...
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST... IF NOT ALL...
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 APPROACHING 50 MPH. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BACK TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED... EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FARTHER TO THE EAST...
HELD OFF FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THE MOMENT AS OKLAHOMA STATE
FORESTRY REPORTS FUELS CONTINUE TO GREEN UP AND WINDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE. DID INCLUDE COMANCHE... TILLMAN... AND COTTON AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE CRITICAL TO EXTREME... WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE RED FLAG... KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY
GOING.
THROUGH SUNSET... EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO PUSH INTO N/NW OKLAHOMA...
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT BEGINNING AROUND 06/00Z (7 PM
CDT) FOR FAR NW OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN TO ANY
ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL ANY ON GOING WILDFIRES. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIFT AT THIS TIME... BUT IT
IS ADVISED TO CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR REVISED FORECASTS AS THE
TIMING AND SEVERITY COULD VARY.
ADDITIONALLY OVERNIGHT... THE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EVEN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED... LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS... WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM UP THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASES AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES E/SE ACROSS TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A DRY FRONT SWINGS SOUTH THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A TAD MORE COMPLICATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHORT... STOUT RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STRONG H500 LOW OVER THE SOCAL COAST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE ISSUE AT THE
MOMENT IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITHIN THE LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER... FROM EITHER SOLUTION... THE GFS OR
ECMWF... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY SOME TIME
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW SIGNIFICANT... THE
DETAILS ARE TOO HAZY AT THE MOMENT TO LOCK DOWN.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 52 74 44 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 86 52 75 43 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 55 77 45 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 90 48 75 42 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 49 72 42 / 0 30 0 0
DURANT OK 83 56 74 46 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>025-
033>038-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-
044-045.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
-1
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
612 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.DISCUSSION...
05/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 TO 40 KTS AT SITES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT... A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN AFTER
06/00Z ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CONCLUDE THROUGH
06/09-12Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20
KTS RANGE. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST...
HOWEVER... HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ALSO... WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... SMOKE FROM ANY
WILDFIRES NEAR AIRFIELDS COULD RESULT IN A DROP TO MVFR.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CURRENTLY... 05/08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SWATH OF 40S DEW POINTS
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER... BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION TO BE A RUSE... WITH THE MOIST LAYER
CONFINED TO THE SURFACE... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. WITH THIS
EVIDENT... TYPICAL CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE HANDLING OF DEW POINTS IS
EXACERBATED. HOWEVER... GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY... LATEST
RUNS OF THE RAP AND OPERATIONAL HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE AN OVERALL
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT DEW POINT/RH EVOLUTION. IN ADDITION...
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING
SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE... WE/LL BEGIN TO MIX OUT QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
STEADILY THROUGH NOON... WITH SFC DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO LOW/MID
20S TO 30S BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES TANKING BY 2 TO 3 PM IN THE LOW TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOW
20S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. NOT TO BE OUT DONE BY THE DRY AIR...
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST... IF NOT ALL...
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 APPROACHING 50 MPH. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BACK TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED... EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FARTHER TO THE EAST...
HELD OFF FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THE MOMENT AS OKLAHOMA STATE
FORESTRY REPORTS FUELS CONTINUE TO GREEN UP AND WINDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE. DID INCLUDE COMANCHE... TILLMAN... AND COTTON AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE CRITICAL TO EXTREME... WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE RED FLAG... KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY
GOING.
THROUGH SUNSET... EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO PUSH INTO N/NW OKLAHOMA...
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT BEGINNING AROUND 06/00Z (7 PM
CDT) FOR FAR NW OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN TO ANY
ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL ANY ON GOING WILDFIRES. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIFT AT THIS TIME... BUT IT
IS ADVISED TO CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR REVISED FORECASTS AS THE
TIMING AND SEVERITY COULD VARY.
ADDITIONALLY OVERNIGHT... THE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EVEN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED... LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS... WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM UP THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASES AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES E/SE ACROSS TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A DRY FRONT SWINGS SOUTH THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A TAD MORE COMPLICATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHORT... STOUT RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STRONG H500 LOW OVER THE SOCAL COAST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE ISSUE AT THE
MOMENT IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITHIN THE LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER... FROM EITHER SOLUTION... THE GFS OR
ECMWF... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY SOME TIME
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW SIGNIFICANT... THE
DETAILS ARE TOO HAZY AT THE MOMENT TO LOCK DOWN.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 52 74 44 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 86 52 75 43 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 55 77 45 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 90 48 75 42 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 49 72 42 / 0 30 0 0
DURANT OK 83 56 74 46 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>025-033>038-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CURRENTLY... 05/08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SWATH OF 40S DEW POINTS
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER... BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION TO BE A RUSE... WITH THE MOIST LAYER
CONFINED TO THE SURFACE... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. WITH THIS
EVIDENT... TYPICAL CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE HANDLING OF DEW POINTS IS
EXACERBATED. HOWEVER... GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY... LATEST
RUNS OF THE RAP AND OPERATIONAL HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE AN OVERALL
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT DEW POINT/RH EVOLUTION. IN ADDITION...
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING
SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE... WE/LL BEGIN TO MIX OUT QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
STEADILY THROUGH NOON... WITH SFC DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO LOW/MID
20S TO 30S BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES TANKING BY 2 TO 3 PM IN THE LOW TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOW
20S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. NOT TO BE OUT DONE BY THE DRY AIR...
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST... IF NOT ALL...
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 APPROACHING 50 MPH. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BACK TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED... EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FARTHER TO THE EAST...
HELD OFF FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THE MOMENT AS OKLAHOMA STATE
FORESTRY REPORTS FUELS CONTINUE TO GREEN UP AND WINDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE. DID INCLUDE COMANCHE... TILLMAN... AND COTTON AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE CRITICAL TO EXTREME... WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE RED FLAG... KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY
GOING.
THROUGH SUNSET... EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO PUSH INTO N/NW OKLAHOMA...
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT BEGINNING AROUND 06/00Z (7 PM
CDT) FOR FAR NW OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN TO ANY
ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL ANY ON GOING WILDFIRES. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIFT AT THIS TIME... BUT IT
IS ADVISED TO CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR REVISED FORECASTS AS THE
TIMING AND SEVERITY COULD VARY.
ADDITIONALLY OVERNIGHT... THE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EVEN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED... LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS... WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM UP THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASES AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES E/SE ACROSS TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A DRY FRONT SWINGS SOUTH THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A TAD MORE COMPLICATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHORT... STOUT RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STRONG H500 LOW OVER THE SOCAL COAST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE ISSUE AT THE
MOMENT IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITHIN THE LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER... FROM EITHER SOLUTION... THE GFS OR
ECMWF... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY SOME TIME
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW SIGNIFICANT... THE
DETAILS ARE TOO HAZY AT THE MOMENT TO LOCK DOWN.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 52 74 44 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 86 52 75 43 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 55 77 45 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 90 48 75 42 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 49 72 42 / 0 30 0 0
DURANT OK 83 56 74 46 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>025-033>038-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK. WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE VERY QUICKLY AND WILL BECOME
VERY STRONG BY MID-AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN TUESDAY EVENING...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...EVEN AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
KGAG/KWWR DURING THE LATE EVENING...AND THROUGH THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N 1/2 OF OK.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/
UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.
DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH AND SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NUDGED
WINDS CLOSER TO THE HRRR BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 53 81 52 72 / 0 0 20 0
HOBART OK 53 88 52 73 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 87 55 76 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 51 88 48 71 / 0 10 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 84 49 71 / 0 10 40 0
DURANT OK 55 82 56 73 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>031-
033>040-044-045.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
&&
$$
17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL
PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL
PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRY AIR STILL HANGING ON OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
RADAR RETURNS/VIRGA WORKING DOWN FROM ABOVE ARE WORKING TO MAKE IT
MOIST. EVENTUALLY SOME --RA WILL MAKE IT DOWN LATER TONIGHT. BUT
NOT MUCH IF ANYTHING SHOULD REACH THE SE BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF T IN THE S LATE TONIGHT AS 8H LI/S NEAR
0...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALSO KEEP THE TEMPS NOTICABLY MILDER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS HANGING
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A
TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE
COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER
SNOW EVENT.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN AND A MID DECK WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER W PA ALIGNED WITH LLJET HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE NW
MTNS...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT THIS
WILL ERODE A BIT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS - LIKELY REMAINING WEST
OF KBFD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD THE RAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LOWER AND RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AS THE RAIN
BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST /AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME
TO MOISTEN UP THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS/ - AND PREDAWN OVER THE
EAST AS WARMER LLJET OVERRUNS SOME COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
BIGGEST CONCERN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE S/SE AND LLWS AS 850MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-50
KT RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THU. REDUCTIONS EARLY WILL
CEDE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE USUAL
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /THAT WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THU
NIGHT/. SECONDARY TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TSTM TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SE LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN SW THEN
WESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY...BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS. TSTM POSS SE.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL
PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL
PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BARELY A FEW HUNDRETHS FALLING OUT OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS
SCREECHING TO A HALT OVER THE FAR NW. SOME VERY SLOW PROGRESS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE A
WEAKENING TO EVEN OUTRIGHT DEATH OF THE SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO
THE INGEST/ENTRAINMENT OF PRETTY DRY AIR FROM THE S. EVEN THE SSW
WIND OVER OH IS ONLY BRINGING IN 40 DEWPOINTS. MOST GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF PBZ LATER THIS EVENING AND
SLIDES A VERY SMALL BATCH OF THEM INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT NOT MUCH IF ANYTHING SHOULD REACH THE SE BEFORE
SUNRISE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF T IN THE S LATE
TONIGHT AS 8H LI/S NEAR 0...WILL KEEP ANY MENTIONS TO AFTER 12Z.
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STRONG UNTIL LLJET TRANSLATES TO
THE NE LATE. TEMPS REMAIN NOTICABLY MILDER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
HANGING MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A
TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE
COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER
SNOW EVENT.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN AND A MID DECK WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER W PA ALIGNED WITH LLJET HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE NW
MTNS...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT THIS
WILL ERODE A BIT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS - LIKELY REMAINING WEST
OF KBFD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD THE RAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LOWER AND RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AS THE RAIN
BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST /AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME
TO MOISTEN UP THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS/ - AND PREDAWN OVER THE
EAST AS WARMER LLJET OVERRUNS SOME COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
BIGGEST CONCERN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE S/SE AND LLWS AS 850MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-50
KT RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THU. REDUCTIONS EARLY WILL
CEDE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE USUAL
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /THAT WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THU
NIGHT/. SECONDARY TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TSTM TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SE LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN SW THEN
WESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY...BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS. TSTM POSS SE.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM...PREFRONTAL PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS GROWN INTO A REGION
OF APPARENTLY STRATIFORM RAIN NOW MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS OF
EASTERN TN/KY. FURTHER SOUTH IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR...A NARROW QLCS
EXTENDS FROM AROUND CHATTANOOGA SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A REGION OF NEARLY 1000
J/KG OF SBCAPE. A COUPLE OF DISCRETE CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE AND THESE ARE TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR GA
ZONES. UNSEASONABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED ONE OF THESE LEADING CELLS TO
PRODUCE UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. HOWEVER AS THESE MOVE TOWARD
OUR AREA THEY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR WHICH APPEARS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO THEIR DEMISE. THIS IS THE TREND SHOWN FROM MESO
GUIDANCE. I HAVE REVISED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT NATURE OF
THE ACTIVITY. THOUGH THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS WERE CLOSE TO THE
LATEST HRRR TIMING...THE ACTIVITY HAS OUTPACED THE HRRR SO FAR THIS
EVENING...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. ALSO REVISED OVERNIGHT
TEMPS IN
THOUGH THE PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIMITED...PEAKING PERHAPS AT 100-200 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
IT...HIGH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND VERY HIGH 0-1KM HELICITY WILL
BE PRESENT. GIVEN THESE STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL
QLCS STORM STRUCTURE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA. MILD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS
TO LOW 50S EAST.
THURSDAY...BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
CWA...RESULTING IN DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND THINNING CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE WSW DURING THE DAY...PEAKING ACROSS
THE NC NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT GUSTS ABOVE 46 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CHANNELIZED H5
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURE
AND LLVL NW WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SCT TO NUM SHOWERS ALONG THE TN
LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT KAVL TO UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RETURN
TO WINTER EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
COOLER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THICKNESS TUMBLES STEADILY AS
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORCED UP THE TN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PASSAGE OF A FOLLOW-UP SHORT WAVE...THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CHANNELED
VORTICITY...WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPREAD OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS SUPPORT
MAINLY RAIN TO START WITH...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL FROM
ABOUT 5K FEET AT 00Z FRIDAY DOWN ALMOST TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY....AND WILL THEN STAY SOMEWHERE IN THE 2K-3K FT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURGES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER THROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WOULD NOT BE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM IF THE QPF GUIDANCE HAD NOT MADE A TREND TOWARD A
WETTER SYSTEM. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A BLEND OF THE WETTER WPC
GUIDANCE AND THE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBDUED NAM/SREF...WE STILL GET THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS NEAR
THE TN BORDER...AND PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MANY PARTS OF
THE NRN MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...THE TIMING OF ONSET BEING THE THIRD
PERIOD MEANS WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IF THE TREND
CONTINUES...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 32F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AVERY COUNTY...AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS...PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...TO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD ACROSS THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE BELOW 32F ACROSS ALL THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LINGERING STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FROST OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...OR MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES THE PLACE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY SLIDES
EAST AND MODERATES ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOULD
BE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER FREEZE OR NEAR FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RISING HEIGHTS...MODERATING AIR MASS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THAN
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS...SO HAVE POP INCREASING TO LIKELY WEST AND CHANCE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER MENTION OVER THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
THE GFS THEN OPENS UP YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US MOVING IT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
06/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. NATURALLY...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE GULF LOW PRESSURE...BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...KEEPING THE CWFA
DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POP INCREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS WILL BLANKET THE AREA
THRU THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PRODUCING SPOTTY LOW LEVEL STRATUS. THE BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG GRADIENT SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PRODUCE EXCEPTIONAL SHEAR. INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE
FRONT MOST LIKELY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. WHILE THUNDER CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION...THE EXPECTED SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR LOCALIZED DMGG WINDS AS
IT PASSES THRU THE REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LLWS IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED DECOUPLING
THE OFFICIAL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET AS WINDS REMAIN BREEZY DOWN
TO THE SFC. TEMPO INCLUDED SURROUNDING THE TIME OF THE FROPA AND
ENHANCED SHRA. WINDS WILL VEER TO SW BEHIND THE LINE AND CLOSER TO
DUE W THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES BENEATH UPPER TROUGH AND TIGHT GRADIENT. GUSTS ABOVE
40 KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE HIGH ELEVATION. LIGHT
SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CUMULUS ARE ALSO IN THE FCST.
OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 80% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 65% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 86% MED 61% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 68% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 72% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN/AL. HRRR RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE LINE...BUT CURRENT MOTION OF
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY OUTPACING EVEN THE 23Z HRRR. THE LITTLE
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE TENN VALLEY HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER ALONG THE LINE...BUT
PROGS SUGGEST IT MAY BEGIN TO LOSE SOME STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. HRRR
UPDRAFT HELICITY STILL LOOKING LIKE SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP
IN THE WARM UPGLIDE PRIOR TO THE FRONT. REVISED POPS ARE BASED
ON CAM CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH A BIT OF THE PREVIOUS FCST. SHEAR
PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE AND STILL SUPPORT A NONZERO SEVERE
RISK OVERNIGHT.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE. CAMS INDICATE THAT A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWEEPING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREDIBLE VALUES OF
0-1 KM HELICITY ACROSS THE CWA...PEAKING AROUND 6Z WITH AROUND
700 M2/S2 ACROSS THE MTNS AND 400 M2/S2 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO AROUND 400 J/KG ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A QLCS...SIMILAR
TO THE SOLUTIONS GIVEN BY THE 4KM WRF AND HRRR. GIVEN STRONG LLVL
WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL STORM STRUCTURE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISO TSRA. A BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TONIGHT...MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 50S EAST.
THURSDAY...BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
CWA...RESULTING IN DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND THINNING CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE WSW DURING THE DAY...PEAKING ACROSS
THE NC NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT GUSTS ABOVE 46 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CHANNELIZED H5
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURE
AND LLVL NW WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SCT TO NUM SHOWERS ALONG THE TN
LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT KAVL TO UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RETURN
TO WINTER EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
COOLER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THICKNESS TUMBLES STEADILY AS
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORCED UP THE TN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PASSAGE OF A FOLLOW-UP SHORT WAVE...THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CHANNELED
VORTICITY...WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPREAD OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS SUPPORT
MAINLY RAIN TO START WITH...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL FROM
ABOUT 5K FEET AT 00Z FRIDAY DOWN ALMOST TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY....AND WILL THEN STAY SOMEWHERE IN THE 2K-3K FT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURGES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER THROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WOULD NOT BE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM IF THE QPF GUIDANCE HAD NOT MADE A TREND TOWARD A
WETTER SYSTEM. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A BLEND OF THE WETTER WPC
GUIDANCE AND THE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBDUED NAM/SREF...WE STILL GET THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS NEAR
THE TN BORDER...AND PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MANY PARTS OF
THE NRN MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...THE TIMING OF ONSET BEING THE THIRD
PERIOD MEANS WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IF THE TREND
CONTINUES...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 32F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AVERY COUNTY...AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS...PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...TO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD ACROSS THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE BELOW 32F ACROSS ALL THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LINGERING STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FROST OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...OR MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES THE PLACE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY SLIDES
EAST AND MODERATES ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOULD
BE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER FREEZE OR NEAR FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RISING HEIGHTS...MODERATING AIR MASS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THAN
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS...SO HAVE POP INCREASING TO LIKELY WEST AND CHANCE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER MENTION OVER THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
THE GFS THEN OPENS UP YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US MOVING IT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
06/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. NATURALLY...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE GULF LOW PRESSURE...BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...KEEPING THE CWFA
DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POP INCREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS WILL BLANKET THE AREA
THRU THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PRODUCING SPOTTY LOW LEVEL STRATUS. THE BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG GRADIENT SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO PRODUCE EXCEPTIONAL SHEAR. INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE
FRONT MOST LIKELY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. WHILE THUNDER CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION...THE EXPECTED SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR LOCALIZED DMGG WINDS AS
IT PASSES THRU THE REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LLWS IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED DECOUPLING
THE OFFICIAL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET AS WINDS REMAIN BREEZY DOWN
TO THE SFC. TEMPO INCLUDED SURROUNDING THE TIME OF THE FROPA AND
ENHANCED SHRA. WINDS WILL VEER TO SW BEHIND THE LINE AND CLOSER TO
DUE W THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES BENEATH UPPER TROUGH AND TIGHT GRADIENT. GUSTS ABOVE
40 KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE HIGH ELEVATION. LIGHT
SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CUMULUS ARE ALSO IN THE FCST.
OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 89% HIGH 99% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 90% MED 64% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 78% HIGH 82% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 83% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
CHALLENGES ARE NUMEROUS TODAY...RANGING FROM PRECIP CHANCES TO
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RESULTANT FIRE WEATHER
IMPLICATIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LEADING BAND EXPECTED TO
LARGELY MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 71 BY DAYBREAK...BUT SEEING ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY ECHOES ON RADAR DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL SD WHERE 06Z NAM SHOWS
ANOTHER POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT OF GROUND TRUTH
FROM THE WESTERN ECHOES AS OF YET...AND MODEL LIFTS THE INSTABILITY
NORTHEAST AND LARGELY WEAKENS IT AFTER 12Z. FOR THIS REASON...OPTED
TO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR THE MORNING AFTER 12Z...WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING A CHANCE OF EASTERN ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR FAR
EAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARROW BAND TO COVER POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY NEAR SECONDARY ZONE OF
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY...IMPACTS WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST. LARGEST EFFECTS OF THIS
WILL BE TWO-FOLD. FIRST IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE TROUGH WHERE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. UNCERTAIN OF HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
SEEN AS INSTABILITY RATHER MARGINAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. BUT
LIFT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCE SOUTHEAST OF VERMILLION TO ROCK
RAPIDS TO SLAYTON LINE TOWARD EVENING.
WEST OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE DEEPER MIXING INTO
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND SIMILAR TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THINK
MIXING WILL RESULT IN MORE WARMING/DRYING THAN MOST MODELS INDICATE.
HAVE FAVORED RAP/GFS FOR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN THE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
FOR LOCATIONS FROM BEADLE-DAVISON-CHARLES MIX COUNTIES AND POINTS
WEST. AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT
COINCIDE WELL WITH LOWEST HUMIDITY DUE TO SLACKENED GRADIENT NEAR
THE TROUGH...BUT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CHAMBERLAIN/GREGORY DO
SHOW DECENT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THUS HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE LOWER BRULE/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AREA...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY HEADLINE-FREE FOR
NOW GIVEN LIGHTER FORECAST WINDS THERE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND MODELS INDICATE MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK
MAY TAP INTO THIS A BIT TOWARD MID-MORNING BEFORE THE JET UNDERGOES
ITS DIURNAL DOWNTREND. NOT EXPECTING 50KT GUSTS...BUT INDICATIONS IN
SOUNDINGS THAT GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR ELEVATED
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE
MID-LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS IS ON THE LOW
SIDE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IN HWO. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE 17Z...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST IOWA EXPECTED TO WANE BY 06Z AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH SOMEWHAT LIMITED SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...SO HAVE TRIMMED SOUTHERN EXTENT OF POPS A BIT...
WITH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF KMHE-KSPW LINE
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL SEE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
CONCERN WITH WIND WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. AS CLIPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT MID LEVEL
WAVE PULL AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND IN 925-850 HPA LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH BY THE AFTERNOON. PERHAPS WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BAGGY ON
ISOBARS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND TOWARD IOWA
GREAT LAKES...BUT ANY LESSER WIND WILL BE A VERY SHORT WINDOW AS
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT FOR WINDS ALREADY WELL IN PLAY BY 12Z...AND
CERTAINLY HAS FULL IMPACT OVER AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 BY 15Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...APPEAR
FAIRLY LIKELY IN THE MORNING...WITH STRONGEST BUT SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD WILL END UP WITH A WIND ADVISORY WITH NEXT MAIN
PACKAGE...WITH TIMING POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST
OF I 29. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SE SD LATE
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BRAKES ON WIND WHICH COULD ACTUALLY GO
FAIRLY LIGHT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE UPPER LOW AND IN WRAP AROUND FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN RAIN THREAT WHICH IS MAINLY FROM I-
29 EASTWARD IN THE MORNING...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE AWAY QUITE
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINLY TAKE AIM ON
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST GLANCING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SD. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND A BIT EASTWARD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL ENHANCE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WITH
STRONG PV ADVECTION PUSHING TOWARD SW MN...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WITH MAIN
SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED WELL EAST...THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR A WARMER
SURGE OF AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL
PUSH LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE A NON-DIURNAL
TREND TO TEMPS WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY NEAR/EAST OF I 29 DURING THE
EARLY EVENING UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE AND DRY AIR...EVEN WITH INCREASE
IN CLOUDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET PERHAPS A 10-15 DEGREE RISE
IN PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE START OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY GIVE
THIS WIND BURST A BIT MORE STAYING POWER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...
WITH WINDS AGAIN 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 45 TO 50 MPH.
YET ANOTHER WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN CORE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BREAK OFF AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...
BECOMING CENTERED FRI NIGHT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA. STILL QUITE
BREEZY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG WINDS AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AS EXPECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE COLDER
TEMPS. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE SHOULD BE AT LEAST THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT...
NUMEROUS HOURS BELOW 28 DEGREES. WHILE THE OVERALL VEGETATIVE
DEVELOPMENT STAGES ARE NOT QUITE YET SUPPORTIVE OF A START TO THE
FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHT SEASON...IT WOULD STILL BE WISE TO KEEP IN
MIND ANY VEGETATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AT A GREATER RATE AND WOULD
BE SENSITIVE TO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD.
SATURDAY WILL GET STRONGER WINDS RETURNING...BUT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND STRONGEST WEST OF I-29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FROM I-29 EAST...AND A BIT
ABOVE TO THE WEST. WARMER ON SUNDAY AS NEXT WAVE WILL START TO PUSH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND IF WE PLAY OUR
CARDS RIGHT ON TIMING...COULD SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-
90. BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A BIT OF
THUNDER TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT ENOUGH
OF A DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING THE AROUND MONDAY WEAK TROUGH AND
INTERACTION WITH DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES TO
KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW...AND TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL EXIST
THROUGH 21Z TODAY. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM 21Z TO 00Z
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH GIVING STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SD FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256 BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A HURON TO LAKE ANDES LINE. MAINTAINED SHARPLY LOWER DEW
POINTS INTRODUCED ON PREVIOUS SHIFT IN THESE AREAS WHERE DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED. THIS RESULTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DUE TO SLACKENED GRADIENT NEAR AND
JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT LINE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS SHY
OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ZONE 255...OR WEST OF A KIMBALL-ACADEMY-BURKE LINE WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH OR MORE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR LOWER BRULE/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT YET FOR THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
639 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
CHALLENGES ARE NUMEROUS TODAY...RANGING FROM PRECIP CHANCES TO
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RESULTANT FIRE WEATHER
IMPLICATIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LEADING BAND EXPECTED TO
LARGELY MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 71 BY DAYBREAK...BUT SEEING ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY ECHOES ON RADAR DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL SD WHERE 06Z NAM SHOWS
ANOTHER POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT OF GROUND TRUTH
FROM THE WESTERN ECHOES AS OF YET...AND MODEL LIFTS THE INSTABILITY
NORTHEAST AND LARGELY WEAKENS IT AFTER 12Z. FOR THIS REASON...OPTED
TO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR THE MORNING AFTER 12Z...WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING A CHANCE OF EASTERN ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR FAR
EAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARROW BAND TO COVER POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY NEAR SECONDARY ZONE OF
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY...IMPACTS WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST. LARGEST EFFECTS OF THIS
WILL BE TWO-FOLD. FIRST IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE TROUGH WHERE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. UNCERTAIN OF HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
SEEN AS INSTABILITY RATHER MARGINAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. BUT
LIFT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCE SOUTHEAST OF VERMILLION TO ROCK
RAPIDS TO SLAYTON LINE TOWARD EVENING.
WEST OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE DEEPER MIXING INTO
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND SIMILAR TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THINK
MIXING WILL RESULT IN MORE WARMING/DRYING THAN MOST MODELS INDICATE.
HAVE FAVORED RAP/GFS FOR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN THE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
FOR LOCATIONS FROM BEADLE-DAVISON-CHARLES MIX COUNTIES AND POINTS
WEST. AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT
COINCIDE WELL WITH LOWEST HUMIDITY DUE TO SLACKENED GRADIENT NEAR
THE TROUGH...BUT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CHAMBERLAIN/GREGORY DO
SHOW DECENT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THUS HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE LOWER BRULE/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AREA...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY HEADLINE-FREE FOR
NOW GIVEN LIGHTER FORECAST WINDS THERE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND MODELS INDICATE MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK
MAY TAP INTO THIS A BIT TOWARD MID-MORNING BEFORE THE JET UNDERGOES
ITS DIURNAL DOWNTREND. NOT EXPECTING 50KT GUSTS...BUT INDICATIONS IN
SOUNDINGS THAT GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR ELEVATED
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE
MID-LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS IS ON THE LOW
SIDE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IN HWO. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE 17Z...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST IOWA EXPECTED TO WANE BY 06Z AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH SOMEWHAT LIMITED SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...SO HAVE TRIMMED SOUTHERN EXTENT OF POPS A BIT...
WITH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF KMHE-KSPW LINE
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL SEE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
CONCERN WITH WIND WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. AS CLIPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT MID LEVEL
WAVE PULL AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND IN 925-850 HPA LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH BY THE AFTERNOON. PERHAPS WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BAGGY ON
ISOBARS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND TOWARD IOWA
GREAT LAKES...BUT ANY LESSER WIND WILL BE A VERY SHORT WINDOW AS
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT FOR WINDS ALREADY WELL IN PLAY BY 12Z...AND
CERTAINLY HAS FULL IMPACT OVER AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 BY 15Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...APPEAR
FAIRLY LIKELY IN THE MORNING...WITH STRONGEST BUT SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD WILL END UP WITH A WIND ADVISORY WITH NEXT MAIN
PACKAGE...WITH TIMING POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST
OF I 29. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SE SD LATE
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BRAKES ON WIND WHICH COULD ACTUALLY GO
FAIRLY LIGHT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE UPPER LOW AND IN WRAP AROUND FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN RAIN THREAT WHICH IS MAINLY FROM I-
29 EASTWARD IN THE MORNING...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE AWAY QUITE
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINLY TAKE AIM ON
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST GLANCING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SD. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND A BIT EASTWARD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL ENHANCE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WITH
STRONG PV ADVECTION PUSHING TOWARD SW MN...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WITH MAIN
SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED WELL EAST...THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR A WARMER
SURGE OF AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL
PUSH LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE A NON-DIURNAL
TREND TO TEMPS WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY NEAR/EAST OF I 29 DURING THE
EARLY EVENING UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE AND DRY AIR...EVEN WITH INCREASE
IN CLOUDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET PERHAPS A 10-15 DEGREE RISE
IN PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE START OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY GIVE
THIS WIND BURST A BIT MORE STAYING POWER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...
WITH WINDS AGAIN 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 45 TO 50 MPH.
YET ANOTHER WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN CORE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BREAK OFF AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...
BECOMING CENTERED FRI NIGHT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA. STILL QUITE
BREEZY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG WINDS AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AS EXPECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE COLDER
TEMPS. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE SHOULD BE AT LEAST THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT...
NUMEROUS HOURS BELOW 28 DEGREES. WHILE THE OVERALL VEGETATIVE
DEVELOPMENT STAGES ARE NOT QUITE YET SUPPORTIVE OF A START TO THE
FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHT SEASON...IT WOULD STILL BE WISE TO KEEP IN
MIND ANY VEGETATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AT A GREATER RATE AND WOULD
BE SENSITIVE TO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD.
SATURDAY WILL GET STRONGER WINDS RETURNING...BUT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND STRONGEST WEST OF I-29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FROM I-29 EAST...AND A BIT
ABOVE TO THE WEST. WARMER ON SUNDAY AS NEXT WAVE WILL START TO PUSH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND IF WE PLAY OUR
CARDS RIGHT ON TIMING...COULD SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-
90. BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A BIT OF
THUNDER TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT ENOUGH
OF A DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING THE AROUND MONDAY WEAK TROUGH AND
INTERACTION WITH DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES TO
KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW...AND TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD.
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY GUSTING 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
LOCALIZED GUSTS TOPPING 35KT ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 17Z. SPOTTY
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN KFSD-KSUX MAY ALSO
PULL BRIEF STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
AFTER 06/06Z...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN CENTRAL
SD...WITH GUSTS 30-40KT LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF I-29 LATE IN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
ASIDE FROM THE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN AREAS MVFR CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
WINDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SD FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256 BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A HURON TO LAKE ANDES LINE. MAINTAINED SHARPLY LOWER DEW
POINTS INTRODUCED ON PREVIOUS SHIFT IN THESE AREAS WHERE DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED. THIS RESULTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DUE TO SLACKENED GRADIENT NEAR AND
JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT LINE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS SHY
OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ZONE 255...OR WEST OF A KIMBALL-ACADEMY-BURKE LINE WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH OR MORE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR LOWER BRULE/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT YET FOR THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ255.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
CHALLENGES ARE NUMEROUS TODAY...RANGING FROM PRECIP CHANCES TO
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS TO HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RESULTANT FIRE WEATHER
IMPLICATIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LEADING BAND EXPECTED TO
LARGELY MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 71 BY DAYBREAK...BUT SEEING ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY ECHOES ON RADAR DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL SD WHERE 06Z NAM SHOWS
ANOTHER POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT OF GROUND TRUTH
FROM THE WESTERN ECHOES AS OF YET...AND MODEL LIFTS THE INSTABILITY
NORTHEAST AND LARGELY WEAKENS IT AFTER 12Z. FOR THIS REASON...OPTED
TO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR THE MORNING AFTER 12Z...WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING A CHANCE OF EASTERN ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR FAR
EAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARROW BAND TO COVER POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY NEAR SECONDARY ZONE OF
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY...IMPACTS WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST. LARGEST EFFECTS OF THIS
WILL BE TWO-FOLD. FIRST IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE TROUGH WHERE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. UNCERTAIN OF HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
SEEN AS INSTABILITY RATHER MARGINAL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. BUT
LIFT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCE SOUTHEAST OF VERMILLION TO ROCK
RAPIDS TO SLAYTON LINE TOWARD EVENING.
WEST OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE DEEPER MIXING INTO
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND SIMILAR TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THINK
MIXING WILL RESULT IN MORE WARMING/DRYING THAN MOST MODELS INDICATE.
HAVE FAVORED RAP/GFS FOR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN THE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
FOR LOCATIONS FROM BEADLE-DAVISON-CHARLES MIX COUNTIES AND POINTS
WEST. AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT
COINCIDE WELL WITH LOWEST HUMIDITY DUE TO SLACKENED GRADIENT NEAR
THE TROUGH...BUT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CHAMBERLAIN/GREGORY DO
SHOW DECENT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THUS HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE LOWER BRULE/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD AREA...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE MIDDLE JAMES VALLEY HEADLINE-FREE FOR
NOW GIVEN LIGHTER FORECAST WINDS THERE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND MODELS INDICATE MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK
MAY TAP INTO THIS A BIT TOWARD MID-MORNING BEFORE THE JET UNDERGOES
ITS DIURNAL DOWNTREND. NOT EXPECTING 50KT GUSTS...BUT INDICATIONS IN
SOUNDINGS THAT GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR ELEVATED
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE
MID-LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS IS ON THE LOW
SIDE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IN HWO. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE 17Z...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST IOWA EXPECTED TO WANE BY 06Z AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH SOMEWHAT LIMITED SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...SO HAVE TRIMMED SOUTHERN EXTENT OF POPS A BIT...
WITH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF KMHE-KSPW LINE
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL SEE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
CONCERN WITH WIND WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. AS CLIPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT MID LEVEL
WAVE PULL AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...40 TO 50
KNOTS OF WIND IN 925-850 HPA LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH BY THE AFTERNOON. PERHAPS WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BAGGY ON
ISOBARS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND TOWARD IOWA
GREAT LAKES...BUT ANY LESSER WIND WILL BE A VERY SHORT WINDOW AS
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT FOR WINDS ALREADY WELL IN PLAY BY 12Z...AND
CERTAINLY HAS FULL IMPACT OVER AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 BY 15Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...APPEAR
FAIRLY LIKELY IN THE MORNING...WITH STRONGEST BUT SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD WILL END UP WITH A WIND ADVISORY WITH NEXT MAIN
PACKAGE...WITH TIMING POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST
OF I 29. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SE SD LATE
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BRAKES ON WIND WHICH COULD ACTUALLY GO
FAIRLY LIGHT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE UPPER LOW AND IN WRAP AROUND FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN RAIN THREAT WHICH IS MAINLY FROM I-
29 EASTWARD IN THE MORNING...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE AWAY QUITE
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINLY TAKE AIM ON
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST GLANCING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SD. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND A BIT EASTWARD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL ENHANCE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WITH
STRONG PV ADVECTION PUSHING TOWARD SW MN...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WITH MAIN
SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED WELL EAST...THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR A WARMER
SURGE OF AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL
PUSH LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE A NON-DIURNAL
TREND TO TEMPS WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY NEAR/EAST OF I 29 DURING THE
EARLY EVENING UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE AND DRY AIR...EVEN WITH INCREASE
IN CLOUDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET PERHAPS A 10-15 DEGREE RISE
IN PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE START OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY GIVE
THIS WIND BURST A BIT MORE STAYING POWER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...
WITH WINDS AGAIN 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 45 TO 50 MPH.
YET ANOTHER WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN CORE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BREAK OFF AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...
BECOMING CENTERED FRI NIGHT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA. STILL QUITE
BREEZY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG WINDS AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AS EXPECTED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE COLDER
TEMPS. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
AND PROXIMITY TO RIDGE SHOULD BE AT LEAST THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT...
NUMEROUS HOURS BELOW 28 DEGREES. WHILE THE OVERALL VEGETATIVE
DEVELOPMENT STAGES ARE NOT QUITE YET SUPPORTIVE OF A START TO THE
FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHT SEASON...IT WOULD STILL BE WISE TO KEEP IN
MIND ANY VEGETATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AT A GREATER RATE AND WOULD
BE SENSITIVE TO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD.
SATURDAY WILL GET STRONGER WINDS RETURNING...BUT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND STRONGEST WEST OF I-29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FROM I-29 EAST...AND A BIT
ABOVE TO THE WEST. WARMER ON SUNDAY AS NEXT WAVE WILL START TO PUSH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND IF WE PLAY OUR
CARDS RIGHT ON TIMING...COULD SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-
90. BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A BIT OF
THUNDER TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT ENOUGH
OF A DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING THE AROUND MONDAY WEAK TROUGH AND
INTERACTION WITH DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES TO
KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY LOW...AND TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING POSSIBLY AFFECTING KFSD
AND KSUX. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SO CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP TONIGHT...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SD FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 255 AND 256 BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A HURON TO LAKE ANDES LINE. MAINTAINED SHARPLY LOWER DEW
POINTS INTRODUCED ON PREVIOUS SHIFT IN THESE AREAS WHERE DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED. THIS RESULTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DUE TO SLACKENED GRADIENT NEAR AND
JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT LINE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS SHY
OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ZONE 255...OR WEST OF A KIMBALL-ACADEMY-BURKE LINE WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH OR MORE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR LOWER BRULE/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT YET FOR THE
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ255.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JH
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS TRENDING TO A
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT WEST
AT KDRT...EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TAKING SHAPE AROUND 19Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE T OVER VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ALSO MINIMIZED IN AN AREA SPANNING FROM ATASCOSA TO SOUTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTY AFTER 08Z SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND ADDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE WX GRID FOR THIS PERIOD AND AREA.
MORE OF THE SAME WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY HOWEVER
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS A H5 CLOSED LOW
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WHILE IT LIKELY WONT HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...IT WILL PUSH
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA COUPLED WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
THEREFORE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FUEL ANALYSIS MAINTAINS AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE SO THIS THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A RED FLAG THREAT AT THIS TIME. BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND
BACK TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BROAD CLOSED LOW COMING ONSHORE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE NEXT BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GO AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT DGEX DOES
ADVERTISE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE DETAILS TO COME AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 58 79 51 83 / 0 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 56 78 47 81 / 0 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 56 79 49 82 / 0 0 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 56 78 49 81 / 0 0 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 62 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 57 78 48 81 / 0 0 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 58 80 47 82 / 0 0 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 80 56 78 48 81 / 0 0 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 58 78 48 80 / 0 0 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 59 79 50 82 / 0 0 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 58 80 51 83 / 0 0 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
902 PM EDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SLIDE EAST
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PWAT CONTINUING TO SHOW QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN
MOISTURE THIS EVENING FROM DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
VERY DRY AIR ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. THIS ALSO
DEPICTED VIA VERY DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO 5H OFF EVENING
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND LINGERING LOW DEWPOINTS. THIS IN
ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN KY/TN ATTM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SOME OF THIS HOLDING TOGETHER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY ACROSS
FAR SW SECTIONS DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY.
ALSO DECENT AXIS OF LIFT SEEN ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FADING
HEADING EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SLOWLY RAMPS
UP. THUS BEEFED UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL A BIT SOONER OVER
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WHILE SPEEDING UP ENDING SOONER PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MOUNTAINS...AND BY MID MORNING THURSDAY EAST IF NOT
SOONER. DESPITE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONGER STORMS TO THE
WEST...WONT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION PENDING TRENDS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...BOTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND POST FRONTAL ON THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS THURSDAY MAY TEST WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...40 KTS...ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING PER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE COOLING VIA RAINFALL THROUGH
DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NEUTRALIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROF...THAT IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL PER THE 12Z GEFS.
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3 MB
AND 850MB WINDS 35-40 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN NW NC THAT MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR
FREEZING...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY...BUT WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY.
BEFORE A RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS ALLOW FOR A RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS...CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT SURGES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES AND
HIGHER WINDS AT 850MB...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL OR HIGHER
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL
INTRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A FETCH OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. GEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS 2-
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND KEPT HIGHS 20-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. IN SUMMARY...A BLUSTERY...WINTER-LIKE DAY
IS ON TAP SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IS REPLACED BY A ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROF...AND
PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SO KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT BRINGS
RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE
ON THE TIMING WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL AFTER SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR UNDER SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS BASES LOWERING AS DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG A
PRE- FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADS EAST. APPEARS MOST
SHOWERS WONT IMPACT THE WESTERN TAF SITES INCLUDING KBLF/KLWB
UNTIL AROUND 04Z/11PM...AND THEN POINTS EAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO OCNL IFR
ALTHOUGH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN DRY AIR AND
STABILITY SO NOT INSERTING ANY THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW. HOWEVER
GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPCLY
AROUND KBLF/KLWB WHERE COULD SEE MORE OF A NARROW LOW TOPPED BAND
BEFORE WEAKENING. APPEARS MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE
BLUE RIDGE VICINITY BEFORE 12Z/8AM AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO 14Z/10AM.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER SHOWERS AROUND
KBLF/KLWB WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OUT TO KBCB AND VFR
CIGS AT KROA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COLD AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RESULTING IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PASSAGE OF A BIT STRONGER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING WITH A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
VFR FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
RETURNING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY FROM
WEST TO EAST UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT YEILDING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH
ON AVERAGE. THIS PROJECTED RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON EVEN AS WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/PM
FIRE WEATHER...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
245 AM PDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...FEW LINGER SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTH THIS AM...OTHERWISE
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER. IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR WED AND THU. THEN...A SLOW RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUN...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
REGION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD
LINE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS...THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BE
PUSHED FARTHER NORTHWARD. SO...WILL KEEP A 20 OR 30 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE THIS AM.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THESE
WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WED AND THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
INLAND. TODAYS TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO MID AND UPPER 60S TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM OFFSHORE TODAY
TO MORE OFFSHORE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR REGION WED AND THU. WHILE THE WARMEST DAY FOR
THE COAST WILL BE WED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
BUT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THU FOR THE COAST AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY ONSHORE FOR THU. BUT INLAND...BOTH WED
AND THU WILL BE RATHER WARM. THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. /ROCKEY.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE PAC
NW ON FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF ONSHORE FLOW FRI...WHICH SHOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SPLITTING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE WILL SETTLE OVER S CALIF AND THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE PAC NW LOOKS LIKELY TO END UP WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE 60S. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH OF KSLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WED.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET NORTH OF
KSLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WED. /MH
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. THE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
UP THE OREGON COAST TO PRODUCE GUSTY N TO NE WINDS AROUND 25
KT...MOSTLY BEYOND 10 NM WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8
FEET THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WESTERLY SWELL PREVAILING. /MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 6 AM TODAY...AND AGAIN 3 PM TO 6 PM TODAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PDT TUE APR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions and the threat of mountain showers lingers
today. Drier and warmer conditions develop from Wednesday into
Friday. In fact, some areas could see record highs later in the
week, with highs in the 70s and 80s. This weekend and early next
week some will see the threat of showers return. Forecast models
are still coming together on the details. Right now the best risk
appears to come Saturday. A few thunderstorms are also possible.
Expect cooler temperatures going into the weekend, though readings
will still be above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Lingering snow showers over the Idaho
Panhandle mountains and the Cascade crest area will continue into
this morning in the westerly orographic regime in the wake of
yesterday`s trough passage. Locally breezy conditions will also
persist through much of the day today across the basin...but with
a gradual decrease. High temperatures today will recover to around
seasonal normals. Models are in good agreement with the general
forecast field of motion through the next few days at least. A
broad upper level ridge will gradually build over the region.
There is however substantial mid level and high altitude moisture
caught up in the upper level flow which will enhance into some
thick mid and high clouds over a upper level warm front. This
will result in heavily filtered sunshine today...but the low level
air mass will remain very dry and not conducive to any
precipitation making it to the surface outside of the highest
peaks ringing the basin.
Skies will clear gradually tonight as the ridge amplifies and the
storm track and attendant moisture flow is shunted to the north
into Canada. A seasonably cool morning Wednesday will recover to
above normal temperatures...generally 8 to 12 degrees warmer than
today...under light winds and mostly sunny skies. /Fugazzi
Wednesday night to Monday: Dry conditions and near-record warmth
into Friday gives way to some opportunities for precipitation and
cooler temperatures toward the weekend and early next week. Low
confidence exists over the details of those upcoming precipitation
chances as models have been all over the place with the weather
features. Yet first through Friday a ridge of high pressure
amplifies over the region. This will bring dry conditions and
gradually thinning clouds. Subsidence and WAA will push
temperatures to 10-20 degrees above normal, with the warmest day
Friday.
Then Friday night into Saturday a stretching and splitting trough
comes to the West. The northern split of said trough comes across
the Pacific Northwest in some form. Its precise evolution is still
coming together. Yet it will be enough to bring some clouds and a
threat of showers to portions of the area. Friday night the main
risk will be across the Cascades and the mountains closer to the
Canadian border. Saturday the risk expands through the eastern
third of WA and the ID Panhandle and comes with a threat of
thunderstorms, before the threat starts to wane Saturday evening.
Between late Saturday night and Monday the pattern becomes
murkier. Some solutions track the trough east. Others leave a
portion of it over the Pacific Northwest as a cut-off low that
bobbles about, until late Monday (into next Tuesday) when most
solutions show the next trough approaches from the west. Until
models settle down, I kept the main shower threat over southeast
WA and the ID Panhandle through Sunday and start to introduce
chances around the Cascades Monday. Either way the strong ridge
will be interrupted and temperatures are expected to undergo a
cooling trend, though values are still expected to remain above
seasonal averages. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moist upslope flow will result in showers and low clouds
across the ID Panhandle tonight. This moisture may result in low
stratus at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW for Tuesday morning with MVFR
cigs possible. Winds will continue to decrease overnight, but
will remain breezy into Tuesday afternoon. Stratus will lift into
a flat cumulus deck across extreme eastern WA and into the ID
Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. There will also be a deck of mid
level clouds above 8 kft pushing in off the eastern Pacific
after 15Z. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 55 37 64 43 75 49 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 53 36 64 41 75 47 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 53 37 65 42 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 60 40 72 46 81 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 58 36 69 40 78 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 52 35 63 37 73 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 48 34 61 38 74 45 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 63 39 71 41 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 62 42 72 47 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 62 39 70 43 78 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and showery weather is expected through mid evening as a
storm system moves out of the region. A return of warm and dry
weather is expected by mid week. Thursday and Friday will be the
warmest days of the week with many locations reaching the 70s. A
few low elevation spots in the Columbia Basin and in the
Lewiston-Clarkston Valley will have a shot at 80 degrees. Another
frontal system will bring the potential for more thunderstorms and
gusty winds on Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The Wind Advisory has been cancelled for the Wenatchee Area,
Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake Area. The boundary layer has
decoupled enough that stronger gusts of 30-40 mph will be becoming
less frequent through the rest of this evening.
The focus will now shift to snow over the mountains. There is a
strong Puget Sound Convergent Zone (PSCZ) directed right over
Stevens Pass. Web cams over this pass shows the road becoming snow
covered very quickly with heavy snow likely. The HRRR model would
suggest another 2 to 3 hours of heavy snowfall possible through
about midnight before tapering off. This will result in
treacherous conditions for anyone trying to drive up over the
pass along Highway 2. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moist upslope flow will result in showers and low clouds
across the ID Panhandle tonight. This moisture may result in low
stratus at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW for Tuesday morning with MVFR
cigs possible. Winds will continue to decrease overnight, but
will remain breezy into Tuesday afternoon. Stratus will lift into
a flat cumulus deck across extreme eastern WA and into the ID
Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. There will also be a deck of mid
level clouds above 8 kft pushing in off the eastern Pacific
after 15Z. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 54 37 64 43 77 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 34 54 37 66 41 77 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Pullman 35 51 37 65 43 77 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 39 59 39 72 46 82 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 33 60 35 70 40 80 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 33 53 34 64 37 75 / 40 10 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 33 49 35 63 38 76 / 50 10 10 10 0 0
Moses Lake 35 63 38 71 41 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 39 63 43 74 46 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 35 62 39 71 43 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR WITH SHOWERS
AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FOCUSING SHOWERS NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE WITH SNOW PILING UP AT STEVENS PASS. MODELS SUGGEST
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER THEN FADE
OVERNIGHT.
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT BRUSHING THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHING ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THINGS OUT. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
70S. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND INLAND ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORMS OFF THE B.C. COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SURFACE FLOW
WILL ALSO FLIP TO ONSHORE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. 33
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL EASE TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
BECOMING STABLE TUESDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE SNOHOMISH KING
COUNTY LINE WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR 3000
FEET OVERNIGHT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL STAY NORTH OF KBFI BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE CASCADES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-
15 KT EASING SOME TUESDAY MORNING. FELTON
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WEST WINDS IN THE STRAIT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH EASTERLIES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT ON THURSDAY. FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AGAIN
FRIDAY WITH GALE FORCE WESTERLIES POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT.
FELTON/CHB
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
856 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and showery weather is expected through mid evening as a
storm system moves out of the region. A return of warm and dry
weather is expected by mid week. Thursday and Friday will be the
warmest days of the week with many locations reaching the 70s. A
few low elevation spots in the Columbia Basin and in the
Lewiston-Clarkston Valley will have a shot at 80 degrees. Another
frontal system will bring the potential for more thunderstorms and
gusty winds on Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The Wind Advisory has been cancelled for the Wenatchee Area,
Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake Area. The boundary layer has
decoupled enough that stronger gusts of 30-40 mph will be becoming
less frequent through the rest of this evening.
The focus will now shift to snow over the mountains. There is a
strong Puget Sound Convergent Zone (PSCZ) directed right over
Stevens Pass. Web cams over this pass shows the road becoming snow
covered very quickly with heavy snow likely. The HRRR model would
suggest another 2 to 3 hours of heavy snowfall possible through
about midnight before tapering off. This will result in
treacherousconditions for anyone trying to drive up over the
pass along Highway 2. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold and unstable upper level trough of lower pressure
will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms generally east of a
line from KSZT to KALW through the early evening hours. Much of
thunderstorm activity has cleared east of KCOE, but there will
still be a threat to the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through about
02Z this evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of moderate to
heavy rain, pea sized hail and occasional cloud to ground
lightning strikes. Showers, thunderstorms and the gusty winds will
decrease late this evening. There is a chance for low stratus to
develop over extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle early
Tuesday morning with MVFR cigs possible, but confidence is low.
/SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 54 37 64 43 77 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 34 54 37 66 41 77 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Pullman 35 51 37 65 43 77 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 39 59 39 72 46 82 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 33 60 35 70 40 80 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 33 53 34 64 37 75 / 40 10 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 33 49 35 63 38 76 / 50 10 10 10 0 0
Moses Lake 35 63 38 71 41 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 39 63 43 74 46 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 35 62 39 71 43 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AN UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ONSHORE FLOW IS CEMENTING ITS PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOS ANGELES SPINS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW IS TRENDING STRONGLY
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REVERSAL TAKES PLACE. KLAX-KDAG
AND KSMX-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING BETWEEN 4
AND 6 MB ONSHORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE
REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ITS
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP. ONE AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE MARINE LAYER, SHALLOWLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING COULD LIFT AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL
TIME HEIGHT SECTION DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MOVING OVER THE
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
NEAR 22N AND 121W COULD SCRAPE THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAP
1000-500 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE NEGATIVE WITH THIS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND RAP CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 420 J/KG. WHILE MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS PUSH THE VORT MAX INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS DID TREND TO BRING THE
FEATURE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
ALL MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL IN LINE AND AGREE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE THE ONE OFFSHORE. AS THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE MOVE ASHORE ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM A
FEATURE CURRENTLY NEAR 32N AND 143W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE INCREASED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE PWATS ARE A
HEALTHY 1.25 INCHES...ANY LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST A HEAR-BUT-NOT- THERE AND OFF-AND-ON-AGAIN SHOWERY REGIME
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE
IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY.
WITH ALL THAT SAID HOWEVER...SYSTEMS OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKE
THIS HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF SURPRISES IN THE PAST...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE COAST/VALLEYS
(0.01-0.25 INCHES) AND THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (0.25-0.75 INCHES).
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS THE BEST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 7,500 FEET FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST ON
SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS
SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE THAN
THE FIRST...WITH PRELIMINARY TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER THE
COAST/VALLEYS...AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 6,000 FOOT RANGE WHICH MEANS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RESORTS...BUT MAJOR
MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ON TAP AGAIN. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE NEXT 7...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS MONDAY`S LOW
ENOUGH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL TROUGH
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES ABOUND TO NO SURPRISE...WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY HAS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
07/0600Z
AT 0530Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 900 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE NEAR 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS AS MANY LAYERS OF CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES
THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 18Z-00Z.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
FROM 18Z-00Z.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
FROM 18Z-00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
06/800 PM
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. UNTIL
THEN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS. AN UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ONSHORE FLOW IS CEMENTING ITS PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOS ANGELES SPINS OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW IS TRENDING STRONGLY
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REVERSAL TAKES PLACE. KLAX-KDAG
AND KSMX-KBFL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING BETWEEN 4
AND 6 MB ONSHORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE
REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ITS
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP. ONE AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THE MARINE LAYER, SHALLOWLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING COULD LIFT AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL
TIME HEIGHT SECTION DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MOVING OVER THE
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
NEAR 22N AND 121W COULD SCRAPE THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAP
1000-500 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE NEGATIVE WITH THIS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND RAP CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 420 J/KG. WHILE MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS PUSH THE VORT MAX INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS DID TREND TO BRING THE
FEATURE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
ALL MODELS ARE STARTING TO FALL INLINE AND AGREE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE THE ONE OFFSHORE. AS THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE MOVE ASHORE ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM A
FEATURE CURRENTLY NEAR 32N AND 143W. A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. POPS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE INCREASED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE PWATS ARE A
HEALTHY 1.25 INCHES...ANY LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST A HEAR-BUT-NOT- THERE AND OFF-AND-ON-AGAIN SHOWERY REGIME
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT. THERE
IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY.
WITH ALL THAT SAID HOWEVER...SYSTEMS OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKE
THIS HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF SURPRISES IN THE PAST...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE COAST/VALLEYS
(0.01-0.25 INCHES) AND THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (0.25-0.75 INCHES).
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS THE BEST OF THE PERIOD. WITH SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 7,500 FEET FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST ON
SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BEING FROM THE NORTH...THIS
SYSTEM HAS MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THAN THE FIRST...LEADING TO A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITIES AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE THAN
THE FIRST...WITH PRELIMINARY TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER THE
COAST/VALLEYS...AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES FOR FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 6,000 FOOT RANGE WHICH MEANS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RESORTS...BUT MAJOR
MOUNTAIN ROADS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
COMPUTER PROJECTIONS SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
ON TAP AGAIN. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE NEXT 7...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE TO STAY DRY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS MONDAYS LOW
ENOUGH IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL TROUGH
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES ABOUND TO NO SURPRISE...WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY HAS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...06/0000Z.
AT 00Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE NEAR 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION, LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT
THROUGH 03Z AND IMPROVE ONE CATEGORY THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH 10Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION, WHILE SPREADING TO TERMINAL NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND INTO VALLEY TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS OPTIMISTIC FOR CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS COULDLINGER
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KLAX...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE, IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 10Z, OR
15Z AT THE LATEST. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY.
KBUR...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. OTHERWISE, IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...06/800 PM.
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. UNTIL
THEN...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1252 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
929 PM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS TO SLOW TEMP DECREASE THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING
AND TO ADJUST HOURLY POP GRIDS PER RADAR TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO OVERALL CHARACTER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST.
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS CLASSIC WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN IL AND
NORTHWEST IN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY
DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
HOWEVER...MAINTAINING PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WI/FAR EASTERN IA
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE RIPPLES AND MAINTAINS
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF OUR LIGHT PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...SLOW COOLING OF THE
COLUMN WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR
KEEPING PRECIP ALL RAIN...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRYING ABOVE
ABOUT 800 MB PER RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS BY MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS AND THEREFORE ANY MIX OF WET SNOW
SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID-30S OR BETTER COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP AND MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENT BLOCKY UPPER
PATTERN WITH DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
311 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN PRECIP SHIELD STILL SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST...STILL IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS GREATER ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THIS PRECIP SHIELD EXIT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONGER VORT LOBE. THIS REINFORCING ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE
SCATTERED/SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH BETTER
FOCUSING EXITING ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...OVERALL COVERAGE
OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND DO BRING POPS BACK DOWN TO LOW
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WITH
THIS IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION. LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WITH THESE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE. PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN OR EVEN BE ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME...DONT ANTICIPATE THIS TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTS A RETURN TO RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING P-TYPE FORECASTS. ON FRIDAY...A
STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DRIVING H85 TEMPS FROM AROUND
-7C FRIDAY TO NEAR -15C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTS IN BROAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER THAT MAY NOT SUPPORT
COMPLETE MELTING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WINTRY PRECIP TYPE
CHANCES. THE UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WITH A WEAK TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES
FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL. LES
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HELPS
TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS.
BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY...HOWEVER CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING THAT WARM OF
TEMPS...THUS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER BUT
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE. CIGS
REMAIN A MIXED BAG OF HIGHER END MVFR AND LOWER END VFR WITH
RAGGED BASES...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TOWARD A
PERIOD OF LOWERING CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SO...HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
CIGS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THE IFR OCCURRING...
BUT IF THE DRIZZLE REMAINS PERSISTENT ST BASES SHOULD LOWER WITH
TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT OFF
THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25-30 KT ON THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 AND POSSIBLY 35 KT SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION...THEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY
BREEZE TO AROUND 30 KT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1109 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
The cold front that swept through our area during the day
bringing the rainfall and damaging wind gusts to extreme
southeast Illinois this afternoon, has shifted off to our east
early this evening. The latest water vapor loop indicates the
rather vigorous upper wave was progressing into Indiana with
several small bands of light rain tracking southeast into the
area. We should see these around central Illinois for a few more
hours before ending during the early morning hours. After that,
gusty northwest winds will bring in another batch of chilly air
for the next day with models indicating some very cold air aloft
streaming southeast into the area on Thursday. This may lead to
some widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially over far west central through southwest Illinois during
the afternoon. These may produce some small hail or graupel in a
few locations before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating
late in the afternoon or early evening.
Have already made some wording adjustments to the ZFP with the
last update sent out earlier in the evening. No other changes
have been made since then that would warrant another update at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over Lake Michigan, with
cold front extending southward along the I-57 corridor. Widespread
light to moderate rain continues to fall in the vicinity of the
boundary...primarily from just east of I-55 to the Indiana border.
Further west, the precipitation has ended across the Illinois River
Valley. The front will continue to progress eastward into Indiana
over the next few hours, with rain lingering across the far E/SE
KILX CWA through early evening. Meanwhile, an area of showers
beneath the trailing upper-level trough currently over eastern Iowa
will drop southeastward into central Illinois this evening. Based
on latest regional radar mosaic and HRRR forecast, have included low
chance PoPs for showers everywhere this evening, followed by a few
lingering showers across only the N/NE CWA after midnight. Will be
a breezy and cool night, with W/NW winds gusting to between 20 and
25 mph. Overnight lows will range from the middle 30s northwest of
the Illinois River, to the lower 40s south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Active northwest flow to continue a couple more days. Next clipper
system currently in northern Alberta will race southeast into
northern Minnesota by Thursday morning before weakening, while an
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes. The remnants of the
clipper are progged by most of the models to be accompanied by a
cold pocket of -30C air near 500 mb, which will track into west
central Illinois by Thursday afternoon. Have added some isolated
thunder into the southwest CWA forecast for the afternoon due to
this increased instability from the cold pocket. However, general
trend in the forecast was to reduce the overall PoP`s by about 20-
30%, concentrating the higher values over the southwest CWA (near
the clipper remnants) and the far northeast CWA (closer to the upper
trough). Kept isolated showers in between. A few showers will linger
into Thursday night as a surface boundary moves through. Next wave
will drop out of Ontario early Friday and race through the Midwest.
Little change in PoP`s for Friday, mainly concentrating them from
Bloomington to Lawrenceville eastward. With this fast flow, windy
conditions to continue for Thursday and especially Friday, when
gusts near 35 mph are likely.
Hard freeze threat continues to loom for Friday night, as 850 mb
temperatures dip to about -12C, near record lows for this time of
year. There is a bit of concern across the eastern CWA where skies
will be a bit slower to clear, but the strong cold-air advection may
overcome this. Continued with lows generally 25-30 degrees. Lower
30s likely in most areas Saturday night as well, but increasing
southerly flow will keep things a bit warmer across the west after
midnight.
Significant pattern shift on deck early next week as a split upper
flow converges over the central U.S. This will result in
temperatures returning closer to normal. While the longer range
models focus on an upper trough passing through Monday night and
Tuesday, the ECMWF is more prominent with digging it further south,
with temperatures cooler than the GFS. Both models maintain a cold
front moving through the area Sunday night and Monday, and have
increased PoP`s to the likely range (60-70%). With the deeper ECMWF,
it pushes the front fully through the area by Monday evening,
whereas the GFS lingers it and the associated rain about 6-12 hours
longer. Consequently, have kept some likely PoP`s over the southeast
into Monday night, with the remainder of the area drying out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Little change from earlier thinking, a mix of low VFR cigs with
periods of MVFR cigs along with isolated light showers into
Thursday morning. Forecast soundings suggest any MVFR cigs should
lift to VFR by afternoon with the better chances for rain west of
I-55, and even in that area, coverage appears to be too limited.
As a result, will handle that with VCSH at this time. Surface
winds will be west to northwest at 12 to 17 kts tonight with a
few gusts around 22 kts, especially at DEC and CMI. Look for
northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts on Thursday with gusts around
23 kts at times by late morning into the mid afternoon hours
before winds quickly subside to less than 10 kts just after 00z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
526 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
530AM UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR SKIRTING COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ALOFT AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS AND TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WHERE WARMING CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WE HAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE
HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH
GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WARM
ADVECTION FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU
MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL
CONTINUE THRU SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE
THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2
INCHES OF QPF WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO
FLOOD STAGE.
A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD
WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND
LESS WIND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I
FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS
MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND
40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT
THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE
MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES
OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND
GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE
AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE
NH BORDER.
FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS
ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS
AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A
MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI
PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER
ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD
AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT
THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK...
LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE
RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON
FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND
00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI.
LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE
LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN
PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR
STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO
PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM
TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE
WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH
WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ020>022.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
350 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE
WX. WE HAD SNWFL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FNT. WE HAVE NOW WORKED
INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WAA FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE
OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL
CONTINUE THRU SRN CANADA...AND A COLD FNT WILL SLOWLY EDGE EWD
INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FNT...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES FROM
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THE
GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE MTNS.
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2 INCHES OF QPE
WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO FLOOD STAGE.
A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC. WARM SLY FLOW OVER THE COLD WATER IS A
GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND LESS WIND AT
THE SFC. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS MORE SLY THAN SELY...I
FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS
TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME.
SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40
PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE
OF THE JET PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT 50 KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH
HEAVY PRECIP IN THE AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY
INLAND FROM THERE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS
FROM PWM ON S TO THE NH BORDER.
FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS ERODE
THE COLDER SFC AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. COLD FNT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS AND KEEP
THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT. TEMP
TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRI IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI
PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER
ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD
AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT
THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK...
LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE
RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. RNFL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON
FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND
00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI.
LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE
LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN
PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR
STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO
PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM
TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE
WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH
WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ020>022.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/KIMBLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
442 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 441 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Short Term (Today through Saturday night):
Although not much in the way of precipitation is expected through
the short term there are plenty of non-precipitation weather concerns
in the short term. The first of these concerns will be the high fire
danger for this afternoon (see fire weather discussion below). The
second issue today will be for the very strong and gusty northwest
winds expected. Deep mixing is expected to occur today up to 675mb-
750mb. his will provide for good momentum transfer and will allow
for strong winds between 20 to 30 kts with gusts to 40kts.
Temperatures aloft however, are not that warm aloft under strong
northwest flow consequently highs will only reach the mid 50s to mid
60s. There will also be quite a bit of cloud cover over the eastern
CWA as a shortwave dropping south along the Mississippi River Valley
today will yield rain chances across that area. Rain should clear
out by tonight and fire weather concerns will diminish with the
winds. High pressure should begin building into the area tomorrow
afternoon further limiting mixing under continued strong northwest
flow aloft this will lead to a slightly cooler day on Friday with
highs in the low 50s to lower 60s. The last of the non-precipitation
weather concerns in the short term will affect the area Friday night
into Saturday morning and it will come in the form of freezing
conditions. The axis of surface high pressure will reside directly
over the forecast area on Friday night allowing for clear skies and
light winds and providing good radiational cooling. Expect low to
bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s. As such, a freeze warning
will need to be issued in a future forecast package. High pressure
will remain in control until late in the day Saturday when WAA gets
underway. This will allow the western CWA to warm into the upper 50s
to lower 60s while the western CWA remains in the lower 50s.
Saturday night...northwest flow relaxes across the area and becomes
more zonal. A weak shortwave moving through the area on zonal flow
with WAA ongoing will provide the chance for a few showers late
Saturday night
Extended range (Sunday - Wednesday):
The beginning of the extended period will be unsettled before
conditions dry out for the second half of the period. Sunday...zonal
flow or perhaps even weak ridging will reside over the area. A few
weak shortwave ejecting out from a broad trough across the
southwestern CONUS will move through the area on Sunday providing
for a couple opportunities for thunderstorms and force a cold front
into the eastern Plains. Temperatures Sunday will warm into the upper
60s to mid 70s under strong South-southwesterly flow. Another
shortwave Sunday night will force the cold front into the area and
providing another round of thunderstorms which may be enhanced by a
nocturnal LLJ. The stalled frontal boundary will remained across the
area into Monday when the upper level trough ejects out into the
PLains. This will provide for yet another round of thunderstorms.
The upper level trough pushes through the area Monday night forcing
the cold front south and east of the CWA and shower and thunderstorm
chance come to an end. Tuesday high pressure moves into the area
keeping conditions cool with highs in the 50s to near 60. Upper
level begins to move into the area late in the day Wednesday helping
highs to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the current TAF period. Light
westerly to northwesterly winds will begin increasing between
15-16Z...becoming more northwesterly as speeds pick up. Sustained
winds of 20-25 kts...gusting to around 30 kts are expected through
the afternoon hours before decreasing towards evening. Boundary layer
decoupling will be similar to the previous period with winds not
decreasing until around 02Z Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 441 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS PROVIDE DEEP MIXING UP TO 8000-11000 FEET USHERING DRY AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-004-011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-
054.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for MOZ011-012-020-021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-
054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...73
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
355 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonged through Thursday with
increasing wind during the day Thursday. Mid to high level
cloudiness will impact the area at times as an upper level
disturbance tracks across the region. Northwesterly winds will
increase by midday Thursday as a cold front moves across the
region. Frequent gusts over 25 kts can be expected with occasional
gusts over 30 kts. Surface winds will subside after sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for MOZ055-056-066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
355 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonged through Thursday with
increasing wind during the day Thursday. Mid to high level
cloudiness will impact the area at times as an upper level
disturbance tracks across the region. Northwesterly winds will
increase by midday Thursday as a cold front moves across the
region. Frequent gusts over 25 kts can be expected with occasional
gusts over 30 kts. Surface winds will subside after sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for MOZ055-056-066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
312 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016
Secondary shortwave to slide southeast through region today. Kept
VFR conditions through most of forecast period. However, could see
some showers with this shortwave during the afternoon hours
between 18z and 23z Thursday with visbys/cigs dipping down to MVFR
briefly. Otherwise, west to northwest winds to pickup by mid
morning with gusts between 25 and 35kts at times. Then winds
diminish towards sunset.
Specifics for KSTL:
Secondary shortwave to slide southeast through region today. Kept
VFR conditions through most of forecast period. However, could see
some showers with this shortwave during the afternoon hours
between 19z and 23z Thursday with visbys dipping down to MVFR
briefly. Otherwise, west to northwest winds to pickup by 15z
Thursday with gusts between 25 and 30kts at times. Then winds
diminish after 02z Friday.
Byrd
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Reynolds MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
314 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
LATER IN THE DAY. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR DATA ILLUSTRATING NICELY THE
APPROACHING AND AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NE
SC AND SE NC EARLY THIS MORNING INLAND AND MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY
WIND ENERGY ACCOMPANIES THIS EARLY SPRING TROUGH WITH A 925-850 MB
WIND MAXIMA DEPICTED IN RAP13 ISOTACH PLOTS BETWEEN 4AM INLAND TO
9-11 AM OFF THE SC AND NC COAST RESPECTIVELY. CONSEQUENTLY SPC HAS
UPPED THE ANTE WITH `MARGINAL` RISK THIS MORNING.
ITS ONLY FITTING A CHANGEABLE WEEK SHOULD HAVE A CHANGEABLE DAY
AND TODAY AFTER THE UNSETTLED START...SUNSHINE SHOULD DEBUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MAXIMUMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE LIMITED SO SLIGHT
CHANCE. COOL AIR ADVECTION LATE WILL BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAIN HEADLINES ARE
DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW TURNING NW LATE SATURDAY...AS A POLAR
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS DIPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. FREEZE WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES FOR THE COLD AIR
SUNDAY MORNING. ESSENTIALLY FAIR THIS PERIOD ASIDE FROM COLD AIR
INTRUSION. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY ILM 31...FLO 28...MYR 33.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HELPS TO REVERSE
THIS LATEST RELENTLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THIS IS A LATE DAY
OCCURRENCE HOWEVER SUNDAY ITSELF WILL END UP QUITE CHILLY ALBEIT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY
CLEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT
MUCH MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN THIS NEW WARM ADVECTION
REGIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE AND MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE RISE. SAID MOISTURE WILL YIELD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE COLD
ADVECTION APPEARS QUITE WEAK. ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE AS MUCH HINGING
UPON POSSIBLE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS ANY THERMAL ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...STRONG ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED...A LINE OF
CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE 40 KT GUSTS ON THE
WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE IF HEADING OUT THIS
MORNING. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE S SHIFTING TO WSW MID AFTERNOON. SEAS ELEVATED WILL PEAK
AT 5-8 FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
IN AND NEAR TSTMS. WSW WINDS BECOMING WNW LATE TONIGHT 15-20 KT
AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SEAS RECOVERING EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE AS MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS HOLD IN A 10-15 KT RANGE ON
FRIDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHER OFFSHORE. LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONDITIONS WORSEN AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS OPEN THE
DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVISORY W WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND ALL OF SATURDAY MAY BE PLAGUED
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... SUNDAY A VERY TRANSITIONAL DAY AS WINDS START
EARLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND AT SLIGHTLY AGITATED SPEEDS FOLLOWED
BY A QUICK RELAXATION AND ALL DAY DIRECTIONAL VEERING. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, THEN
OVERHEAD, THEN OFF THE COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE AREA
KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
109 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE COAST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE INTO
THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING INLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BY 9Z AREAS
WEST OF I-95 WILL SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION...REACHING COASTAL
LOCALS AFTER DAYBREAK AND CLEARING OFF THE COAST MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTN. HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES
BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND MAGNITUDE AND BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INTO THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENE AND WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF DAYBREAK...MOVING OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WERE SKIRTING THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS EVE
AS THEY MOVED TO THE N.
OUR AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE
WILL LIFT NE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THU MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR A BRIEF TIME VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. S TO SW
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AND THIS WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL PEAK JUST OVER 1 INCH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STOUT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN... THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
A QUICK HITTER...BUT UP TO A QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
WINDS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING...15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STABILIZE THIS EVE WITH A
TENDENCY TO EITHER HOLD STEADY OR RISE TOWARD MORNING UNDER THICK
CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...CERTAINLY WELL
ABOVE THE LOWS OF LAST NIGHT. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
FAST PACED CHANGES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY
THU BUT COLD ADVECTION IS INITIALLY LIMITED. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HELPS DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT...CLEARING OUT SKIES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO THU BUT STARTING LATE THU NIGHT COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...THE BEGINNINGS OF A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.
MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND FROM TIME
TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE OF
THE STRONGER WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
AHEAD OF THE WAVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. ONCE AGAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A NON-ZERO POP BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET. WHILE
IT IS TRUE STRONG WAVES TEND TO PRODUCE PRECIP WHEN IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AND THE CORE OF THE
WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. THE SECOND WAVE WILL HELP DRAG AN
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING A
DRY COLD FRONT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
W-NW FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE NW-N THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL
A DEEP FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIR MASS WILL
COME FROM WELL INTO NORTHWEST CANADA PULLING DOWN A BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AND
DRIEST AIR WILL ADVECT OVER FORECAST AREA LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN GUSTY NW-N WINDS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TO HOW LOW THE
TEMPS WILL GET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE 850 TEMPS HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY WITH LOWEST READINGS AROUND -4-5C INSTEAD OF -8C.
THERE SHOULD BE PLACES THAT REACH BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR CROPS OR PLANTS MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AND THEREFORE REMAIN ALERT FOR UPDATES OF POSSIBLE
FREEZE.
CAA WILL CUT OFF COME SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS COULD AFFECT EITHER SAT NIGHT
LOW OR SUN NIGHT LOW AS ANY DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT NIGHT
WILL PRODUCE LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OVERALL WOULD THINK THIS WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON SUN NIGHT TEMPS BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
BRING CENTER OVERHEAD SUN AFTN AND THEN A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN MOISTURE
RETURN AND A RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN
NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSER TO 40 SUN NIGHT.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STARTING
OUT NEAR 60 FOR SATURDAY AND THEN NEAR 70 BY MONDAY UNDER BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THOUGH. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUES
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE TUES. TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE BACK UP
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEDGE SETTING UP
FOR MID WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS AND PCP POST
FROPA ON WED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 109 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO THU NIGHT.
A S TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50+ KT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WE EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO PICK
UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
THU...MAINLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PEAKING IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE WITH A FEW 9 FT SEAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THU MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SCA ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THU AND POSSIBLY PART OF THU NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY THU BUT WINDS ARE
SLOW TO VEER TO WESTERLY. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
APPROACH 30 KT SUSTAINED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. DESPITE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS REMAIN
20 TO 25 KT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO PINCHED GRADIENT.
WESTERLY FLOW DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THU NIGHT AND GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX. THIS ALLOWS FOR SEAS DROPPING UNDER 6 FT...ACROSS
SC WATERS FIRST AND THEN ACROSS NC WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA HEADLINE FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH 25 KT. OFFSHORE WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT DESPITE
SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL BE UP AROUND SCA THRESHOLDS
EARLY SATURDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH A
STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW. STRONG NW-N FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL MIXED UNDER
STRONG CAA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT CLOSER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO RELAX. EXPECT WIND TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY
SUN AFTN WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS. BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE TO S AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS. BY
MON NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP PACE REACHING UP TO 10 TO
15 KT PUSHING SEAS BACK UP A FT OR TWO LEAVING MOST SEAS IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE BY TUES MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KJMS FROM 12Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT KDIK AND KJMS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25KT AND GUSTS TO 36KT...BETWEEN 14Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ043>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KJMS FROM 12Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT KDIK AND KJMS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25KT AND GUSTS TO 36KT...BETWEEN 14Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ043>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL
PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL
PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING AN APPROACHING BAND OF RAIN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH SOUTHERLY LL JET/PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE PRECEDING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO
THE CENTRAL PA MTNS AT 05Z...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 3KM
RESULTING IN LITTLE IN A LOT OF VIRGA AND LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AT THE SFC. EVENTUALLY SOME LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS LL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE
ARE LOW EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A
TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE
COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER
SNOW EVENT.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 07/06Z TAFS THROUGH 08/06Z | ISSUED 200 AM EDT 4/7/16
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH ONLY
SCT -SHRA OVER THE WRN 1/2. SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE 11-16Z
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY THE ERN 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE IN ZNY SECTOR PER LATEST HIRES COSPA/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL
LKLY SEE BORDERLINE IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS INVOF MDT/LNS AROUND
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT LOW DEWPOINTS AM SKEPTICAL OF THE
GUIDANCE BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR AND THEREFORE HAVE STAYED
MORE IN THE MVFR RANGE. STRONG LLJ FROM AROUND 210 DEGREES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP 35-50KT LLWS IN TAFS THRU 12-14Z.
EXPECT A COLDER POST- FRONTAL WNW FLOW PATTERN TO PREVAIL FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN...THIS
PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT LEAD TO SCT INSTABILITY -SHRA WITH A ISOLD
TSTM PSBL OVER THE SRN 1/3. BLYR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
FAVOR RA/SN MIX OVER THE WRN 1/3 BY THIS EVENING AND -SHSN
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY-MONDAY
FRI...MVFR CIGS/-SHSNRA WEST ENDING. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. DECREASING
WINDS.
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RA/SN. BCMG WINDY.
SAT NGT-SUN...DECREASING WINDS/GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN NGT-MON...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH CFROPA MON NGT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
100 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WILL
PUSH TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND SURGE WILL
PRODUCE A VERY CHILLY APRIL WEEKEND. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWING AN APPROACHING BAND OF RAIN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH SOUTHERLY LL JET/PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE PRECEDING COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO
THE CENTRAL PA MTNS AT 05Z...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 3KM
RESULTING IN LITTLE IN A LOT OF VIRGA AND LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AT THE SFC. EVENTUALLY SOME LGT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS LL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE
ARE LOW EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THU. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE EAST...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF A
TSTM. SHOULD REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE EAST...WHILE
COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN MORE VIGOROUSLY BY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ENSEMBLES AND MODEL MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
A SECOND SLUG OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS/NAEFS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE -16C CONTOUR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND
LIFTS OUT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATIONS..MAINLY THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PLACEMENT. BEST
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE GEFS HAS IMPLIED CLIPPER
SNOW EVENT.
THE EXTREME COLD AIR BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN NORTH AT TIMES.
MORE MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN AND A MID DECK WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER W PA ALIGNED WITH LLJET HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE NW
MTNS...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT THIS
WILL ERODE A BIT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS - LIKELY REMAINING WEST
OF KBFD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SPREAD THE RAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LOWER AND RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AS THE RAIN
BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST /AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME
TO MOISTEN UP THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS/ - AND PREDAWN OVER THE
EAST AS WARMER LLJET OVERRUNS SOME COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
BIGGEST CONCERN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE S/SE AND LLWS AS 850MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-50
KT RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THU. REDUCTIONS EARLY WILL
CEDE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE USUAL
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS PERSIST IN LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /THAT WILL TURN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THU
NIGHT/. SECONDARY TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TSTM TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SE LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN SW THEN
WESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY...BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS EARLY THEN OCNL RA/SN SHOWERS. TSTM POSS SE.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
BREEZY.
SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE...WIHT GUSTS PRESERVED DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
AS OF 1040 PM...PREFRONTAL PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS GROWN INTO A REGION
OF APPARENTLY STRATIFORM RAIN NOW MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS OF
EASTERN TN/KY. FURTHER SOUTH IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR...A NARROW QLCS
EXTENDS FROM AROUND CHATTANOOGA SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A REGION OF NEARLY 1000
J/KG OF SBCAPE. A COUPLE OF DISCRETE CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE AND THESE ARE TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR GA
ZONES. UNSEASONABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED ONE OF THESE LEADING CELLS TO
PRODUCE UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. HOWEVER AS THESE MOVE TOWARD
OUR AREA THEY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR WHICH APPEARS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO THEIR DEMISE. THIS IS THE TREND SHOWN FROM MESO
GUIDANCE. I HAVE REVISED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT NATURE OF
THE ACTIVITY. THOUGH THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS WERE CLOSE TO THE
LATEST HRRR TIMING...THE ACTIVITY HAS OUTPACED THE HRRR SO FAR THIS
EVENING...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. ALSO REVISED OVERNIGHT
TEMPS IN
THOUGH THE PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIMITED...PEAKING PERHAPS AT 100-200 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
IT...HIGH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND VERY HIGH 0-1KM HELICITY WILL
BE PRESENT. GIVEN THESE STRONG LLVL WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL
QLCS STORM STRUCTURE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA. MILD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...MID 40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS
TO LOW 50S EAST.
THURSDAY...BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
CWA...RESULTING IN DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND THINNING CLOUDS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE WSW DURING THE DAY...PEAKING ACROSS
THE NC NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT GUSTS ABOVE 46 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CHANNELIZED H5
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURE
AND LLVL NW WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN SCT TO NUM SHOWERS ALONG THE TN
LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT KAVL TO UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RETURN
TO WINTER EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
COOLER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THICKNESS TUMBLES STEADILY AS
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORCED UP THE TN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PASSAGE OF A FOLLOW-UP SHORT WAVE...THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CHANNELED
VORTICITY...WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP...SOME OF WHICH COULD SPREAD OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS SUPPORT
MAINLY RAIN TO START WITH...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY FALL FROM
ABOUT 5K FEET AT 00Z FRIDAY DOWN ALMOST TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY....AND WILL THEN STAY SOMEWHERE IN THE 2K-3K FT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURGES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER THROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WOULD NOT BE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM IF THE QPF GUIDANCE HAD NOT MADE A TREND TOWARD A
WETTER SYSTEM. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A BLEND OF THE WETTER WPC
GUIDANCE AND THE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBDUED NAM/SREF...WE STILL GET THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS NEAR
THE TN BORDER...AND PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MANY PARTS OF
THE NRN MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...THE TIMING OF ONSET BEING THE THIRD
PERIOD MEANS WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IF THE TREND
CONTINUES...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 32F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AVERY COUNTY...AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS...PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...TO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD ACROSS THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AS NW FLOW
CONTINUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE BELOW 32F ACROSS ALL THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LINGERING STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FROST OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...OR MORE TYPICAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES THE PLACE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY SLIDES
EAST AND MODERATES ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SHOULD
BE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER FREEZE OR NEAR FREEZE
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RISING HEIGHTS...MODERATING AIR MASS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THAN
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS...SO HAVE POP INCREASING TO LIKELY WEST AND CHANCE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER MENTION OVER THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
THE GFS THEN OPENS UP YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US MOVING IT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
06/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. NATURALLY...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE GULF LOW PRESSURE...BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...KEEPING THE CWFA
DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BLENDED THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS AND KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POP INCREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DUE TO RAIN. BASED MODEL CLOUD COVER
AND TIME HEIGHTS...SCATTERED LOW VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...WITH SCATTERED MVFR AT KAVL. AS MOISTURE
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SECOND SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL RETURN...WITH MVFR AT KAVL...AND LOW
VFR AT SITE TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SECOND SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KAVL...WHERE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AS WELL. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
S TO WSW BY DAWN...EXCEPT NW AT KAVL...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RETREAT TO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS...AND WITH WINDS UP SLIGHTLY AND RELATIVELY DRY
AIR...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT MED 64% MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 57% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 71% MED 66% LOW 56% LOW 57%
KHKY HIGH 85% MED 61% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 57% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 64% LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1247 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST
AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED AT INGLESIDE AND NAVY CORPUS. LATEST HRRR AND
SREF ENSEMBLE INDICATE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE
COASTAL BEND BY 09Z AND LINGER UNTIL 14-15Z THURSDAY. MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC SHOWING PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO
TO IFR FOR CRP/ALI. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR CRP/ALI FOR UPDATE TO
IFR TEMPO LIFR FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT VCT BUT COULD SEE
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG THERE ALSO BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MEXICO MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL
LIKELY SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO
THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST/INCREASE FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FCST TO EXPAND THE REGION OF FOG
EXPECTED OVER THE SERN CWA/ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MEANDER OVER THE SRN CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT AND
CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SERN CWA/ADJACENT
WATERS NEAR THE COAST. SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE SERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 81 64 80 68 / 0 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 55 80 59 79 65 / 0 0 10 20 10
LAREDO 64 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 20 20 10
ALICE 57 82 60 82 67 / 0 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 65 79 68 79 70 / 0 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 61 83 62 83 66 / 0 10 20 20 10
KINGSVILLE 59 82 63 81 69 / 0 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 65 78 68 80 71 / 0 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OVERHEAD TODAY...AND BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE COLDER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PWAT CONTINUING TO SHOW QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN
MOISTURE THIS EVENING FROM DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
VERY DRY AIR ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. THIS ALSO
DEPICTED VIA VERY DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO 5H OFF EVENING
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND LINGERING LOW DEWPOINTS. THIS IN
ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY DECENT LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN KY/TN ATTM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SOME OF THIS HOLDING TOGETHER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPCLY ACROSS
FAR SW SECTIONS DESPITE THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY.
ALSO DECENT AXIS OF LIFT SEEN ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE FAR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FADING
HEADING EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SLOWLY RAMPS
UP. THUS BEEFED UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL A BIT SOONER OVER
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WHILE SPEEDING UP ENDING SOONER PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MOUNTAINS...AND BY MID MORNING THURSDAY EAST IF NOT
SOONER. DESPITE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONGER STORMS TO THE
WEST...WONT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION PENDING TRENDS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...BOTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND POST FRONTAL ON THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS THURSDAY MAY TEST WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...40 KTS...ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING PER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE COOLING VIA RAINFALL THROUGH
DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NEUTRALIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROF...THAT IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL PER THE 12Z GEFS.
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3 MB
AND 850MB WINDS 35-40 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN NW NC THAT MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR
FREEZING...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY...BUT WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY.
BEFORE A RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS ALLOW FOR A RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS...CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT SURGES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES AND
HIGHER WINDS AT 850MB...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL OR HIGHER
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL
INTRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A FETCH OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. GEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS 2-
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND KEPT HIGHS 20-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. IN SUMMARY...A BLUSTERY...WINTER-LIKE DAY
IS ON TAP SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IS REPLACED BY A ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROF...AND
PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SO KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT BRINGS
RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE
ON THE TIMING WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL AFTER SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
ON MVFR CONDITIONS IS QUITE HIGH FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS PORTRAY THAT FLYING CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN TO IFR AT
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB BY SUNRISE.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL
SUBSIDE...GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD PUSH SURFACE
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KBLF
AND KBCB. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT KBLF AND KLWB.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AT KBLF
AND KLWB DURING FRIDAY MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS
TROUGH MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN TO
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN SUNDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP ALL THE WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. LOW PRES NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE N THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. STRENGTHENING
SLY FLOW TRANSLATES INTO BL WINDS IN THE 40-50KT RANGE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DAMPENING DUE TO THE MARINE
INFLUENCE...MECHANICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THIS
SOMEWHAT. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYERED 50+ KT WINDS SHOULD HELP
TO OFFSET ANY PRECIPITATION DRAG AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND
QUEENS.
ADJUSTED CAT POPS TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS...AND HI RES GUIDANCE. HRRR AND 06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION WITH SHOWERS TRACKING NORTHWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC LIKELY IMPACTING LONG ISLAND AND SE CT THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ENTERING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE COUPLED JET IN THE AREA. MAINTAINED THE ISOLD
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO T/TD/WINDS BASED ON LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER DUE TO
COMPENSATION SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION.
THEREAFTER... A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE RIGHT THRU THE DAY ON FRI
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. GFS H925-H85 LAPSE
RATES FRI AFTERNOON CLOSE TO DRY ADIABATIC. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND ONLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVG DUE TO DEEP APRIL
MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY TROUGHING IN
THE EAST...DUE TO A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND...AND A
SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST. THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN...MAINLY THOUGH THE
WEEKEND...WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL AS A CUTOFF LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM ERN CANADA MOVES THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND ON SAT. THE OVERALL H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
BEGINNING MONDAY...WHICH IS AFFECTING THE DETAILS OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FRI EVE WILL DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND INTO SUN. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY
10-20 DEGREES BELOW OVER THE WEEKEND...ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE SIGNALING LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING OVER OR JUST S OF THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...THE WET BULB EFFECT FROM FALLING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 30S AREA WIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AN LIGHT ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING DEPARTING LOW. WARM AIR
ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT. TEMPS COULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON MON FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...BUT THEY ARE TOUGH TO GET
THROUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE PARENT LOW PRES TRACKING W OF
THE APPALACHIANS...UNLESS YOU HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THERE
CURRENTLY IS NO INDICATION OF A DAMMING HIGH TO THE N BUT IF THIS
DOES END UP DEVELOPING IT WILL BE REALLY TOUGH FOR THIS BOUNDARY
TO PASS THROUGH.
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE
NIGHT..WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR TO GET STARTED...THEN MVFR DEVELOPS BY AROUND MIDDAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY LATE MORNING KGON. IFR IS PROBABLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO VFR LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW GUSTY IT WILL
BE FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT KSWF INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT S-SE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT BY MID-LATE MORNING
WITH 20-25KT GUSTS...THEN SE WINDS AROUND 15-25G25-35KT BY AROUND
MIDDAY. ISOLATED PEAK GUSTS COULD BE 5-10 KT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
IN THE TAFS. WINDS DECREASE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SSW THEN SW...WITH GUSTS ABATING DURING THE EVENING.
WIND GUSTS RETURN 8-10Z AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WSW-W WITH GUSTS
15-25KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCST CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF MVFR/IFR AND CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED PEAK
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. WSW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW. E WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW MAINLY IN
THE EVENING...THEN VFR. NE-NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS. SW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY FLOW INCREASES THU THE DAY AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS. THE GALES COME DOWN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WSW. SCA WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN HOWEVER RIGHT THRU FRI. ON
THE PROTECTED WATERS...WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON
FRI...PARTICULARLY ON THE ERN SOUND.
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ON ALL WATERS FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. THEY COULD BRIEFLY
FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON SAT BUT WILL RAMP BACK UP BEHIND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN
BY SUN EVE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ON MON COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS BACK
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. SOME
MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE PEAK WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL LINE
UP WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALIZED TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT ALONG
THE S SHORE BAYS IF ENOUGH WATER REMAINS TRAPPED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...24/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1035 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO
CONTINUE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SHAVE A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS.
A ONCE AGAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD UPPER LOW...WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE 925MB TEMPERATURES MEASURED ON 12Z RAOBS WERE -2C AT DVN AND
-4C AT GRB WHICH IS ABOUT THE 10TH LOWEST PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR. THIS COLD ADVECTION IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINS THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOW-LEVEL RAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. SUCH SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PARTS OF THE AREA THE PAST
HOUR TO TWO AND ONE BRIEFLY BROUGHT ORD DOWN TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY
EARLIER. RAP PREDICTED CAPE OF 25-50 J/KG DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS
AS ROBUST OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL COULD
GET SOME QUICK VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
GRAUPEL IF NOT SNOW (HAD A REPORT OF THAT EARLIER FROM GURNEE
ILLINOIS).
FORECAST HIGHS ARE 40 TO 45 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR
OBSERVED REGIONAL 925MB TEMPERATURES NOTED ABOVE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...IN THE
WAKE HAS BEEN A COOL/MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER WAVE WAS
BEGINNING TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT HAS TAKEN ON SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING...AND COUPLED
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE BETWEEN
10 TO 20 MPH HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE BETTER
PARCEL LIFT...AND AS ELUDED TO EARLIER CONCERNING A WEAKLY FORCED
INVERTED TROUGH...THE ABILITY TO LIFT THE PARCEL HAS DIMINISHED AND
IS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN OR IN SOME LOCATIONS LGT
SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SOLID LIFT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SNOW GROWTH WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA AND ALONG THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST COLD AIR PUSH. THE THICK CLOUD
COVER WILL INHIBIT ANY SIZEABLE WARMING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL TRY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY ALONG
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTN AND COULD PULL COOLER AIR
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS SUCH AS WAUKEGAN TO CHICAGO AND HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIFT LATER TODAY...GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND EVEN CHANCES. HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTN.
WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE MID-LVLS HOLDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSHES EAST EARLY FRI. SO EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO
REMAIN DRY WITH SOME THINNING TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A LOBE OF VORTICITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI...AND AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE CONTINUED SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WILL SEE INCREASED PARCEL LIFT AND LIKELY BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRI...THEN SLOWLY WARM TO
SUPPORT MAINLY LGT RAIN BY EARLY FRI AFTN.
HEADING INTO FRI EVENING THE STRONGER VORT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN WISC WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR. THERMAL TROUGH AT
850MBCONTINUES TO BE PROGGED IN THE -8 TO -14 DEG C RANGE BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO LGT SNOW
LATE FRI EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LGT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND A DUSTING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD APPROACH AN INCH.
FORTUNATELY THE DURATION OF LGT SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A
CANADIAN SFC RIDGE DIVES SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY AND COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AND STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THE THERMAL TROUGH
OF -8 TO -12 DEG C WILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY COOL SAT. HIGHS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN
BY SAT NGT AND SHIFTS THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE
STEADILY ADVECTING NORTH BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE SUN NGT...SO
HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF ISO THUNDER. TEMPS SHUD APPROACH 50 TO
THE MID 50S BY SUN AFTN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL
SPREAD IN THE MON/TUE PERIODS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT WEAKENING THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. LINGERING TROUGHING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS
LIKELY. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE
AMONGST SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT WEAK
RIDGING MAY ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AFTER THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTN/EVE...BROAD SFC
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER TUE/WED. THIS
WOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS SOME WEAK
RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SEASONAL IN THE EXTENDED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER FAR NERN IL AND INTO NWRN
IN...BUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SATURATED
LOWER LEVELS...PCPN HAS LARGELY TRANSITIONED OVER TO MORE PATCHY
DRIZZLE. CIGS HAVE SETTLED INTO MVFR RANGES. WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER CIGS AND THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE NO
LONGER SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS...HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF IFR CIGS FROM THE TAFS. EXPECT THAT THE GENERAL TREND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD BE FOR MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE. EXPECT THAT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOME
DAYTIME WARMING OCCURS AT THE SFC...WHILE THE COLD CORE TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SET UP AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THAT
SHRA SHOULD BE SCT...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AT
THIS POINT. WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES OVER THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SOME GUSTINESS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH NWLY WINDS OCNL GUSTING AS HIGH AS
20-25 KT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO VEER
BRIEFLY TO NNELY AT ORD/MDW/GYY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT BACK TO NWLY-WLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 35 KT GALES SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1101 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1101 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Another day, another tight pressure gradient with strong wind gusts
across the lower Ohio Valley. 991 mb surface low north of Lake
Ontario within deep cyclonic flow has sent passing shortwaves
through the area. HRRR wind gusts and RAP forecast soundings for the
afternoon show efficient mixing with 25 to 30 kt momentum transfer
across the area. Already we`ve seen KY Mesonet obs show 30 mph
gusts. As a result, expecting an uptick in gusts throughout the day,
with many spots 30 to 35 mph. Might see a higher gust to near 40
mph, but that should be fairly isolated. A Special Weather Statement
has been issued to cover the winds for the remainder of the day.
Otherwise, spotty showers will remain possible but chances will be
slight as we`re in between shortwaves right now. Kind of a raw,
unpleasant spring day with clouds, cooler temperatures and the winds.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2016
An active short term period will continue with some chances for rain
as well as for freezing temperatures. For this morning a disturbance
moving through the upper level flow will bring showers to mainly the
northern half of the forecast area, particularly the Bluegrass and
portions of southern Indiana. Those showers will move east by mid
day or so and another wave will dive through the upper level trough
to the west of the area. This will bring another round of showers to
mainly the southern half of the forecast area late this afternoon
into the early evening hours. Any showers should move out during the
evening, so it does not look like there will be a chance for
snowflakes to mix in tonight.
Attention then turns to temperatures tonight. Clouds will stay
around through the overnight hours. However, the airmass is cold
enough for temperatures to drop into the 30s with a few of our far
northern counties dropping to around 30. Will issue a Freeze Watch
for those counties as they are the most likely to see temperatures
dropping to the point where sensitive vegetation could be killed if
not protected. The colder nights will be Friday and Saturday, as
discussed in the long term section.
Another front will drop through the area on Friday. This front will
bring another round of showers to the area. Soundings do show some
elevated instability in the afternoon, so have a slight chance for
thunder in the forecast.
The other forecast concern worth mentioning will be the gusty winds.
Though it looks like winds will be a bit lighter than they have been
the last couple of days, gusts this afternoon and Friday afternoon
will be in the 30 to 35 mph range. Some higher gusts are not out of
the question in showers and thunderstorms as well.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Unseasonably cool weather will start off the long term as an upper
level trough lingers over the region and cold high pressure settles
in. A few very light showers may linger across the region Friday
evening through around midnight, particularly across the Bluegrass.
As cold air rushes in, there will be a very short window for a few
snowflakes to mix in before the precipitation moves off to the east.
However, no accumulations are expected. The bigger concern will be
the cold temperatures as most areas, except perhaps the Louisville
metro will fall to freezing or below. Despite mostly clear skies on
Saturday, temperatures will only peak in the 40s to around 50.
Temperatures Saturday night will once again fall to freezing or
below across the region. However, do not think that any records will
be in jeopardy as the high will be shifting east of the area and
some return southerly flow should set up by 12Z.
Moisture return will begin on Sunday along with a brief warm up. A
front will slowly begin to slowly approach and a weak upper level
disturbance will pass north of the area. This will bring isolated to
scattered showers to the northern portions of the forecast area on
Sunday and Sunday night. The better chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms will be Monday into monday night as the cold front
actually move through. Some showers could linger into Tuesday as
well before moving out.
Temps will be warmer on Sunday and particularly Monday ahead of the
front with highs Monday solidly into the 60s with some areas
approaching 70. Temps will cool down Tuesday into Wednesday, but
look to be closer to normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Tight surface gradient will linger over the Ohio Valley today even
as low pressure pulls out of the Great Lakes. Between that and the
cold pool aloft, expect gusty west winds with sustained speeds at or
just above 15 kt and gusts around 25 kt. Plenty of strato-cu in the
damp but deeply mixed regime, but expect it to stay just barely VFR
except in LEX, where it will trend more into the high-end MVFR that
we`ve seen intermittently for much of the night. A few stray showers
are possible, especially this afternoon in SDF and LEX, but VCSH
should cover that well enough.
Winds diminish around sunset and any low ceilings will lift to VFR,
and even give way to just a mid-level ceiling at SDF. Gusts will
pick up again Friday morning in response to another surface low
diving out of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, but this will
only impact the planning period for SDF at this time.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for KYZ036-
037-042-043-049.
IN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for INZ079.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS UPDATE
ACCOUNTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH. IN FACT
CLEARING HAS ALREADY WORKED INTO WAYNE COUNTY AS OF 1330Z. THE
CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW INCREASED MIXING AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. AS SUCH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
WITH WINDS BEING FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TODAY TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MATCH
UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS TONIGHT BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS.
ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS
TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES
FRIDAY MORNING...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS LIFTING OUT
OF OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
ZONE/ENHANCED MOISTURE/ PUSHING EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A DECENT MID LEVEL JET IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THE REGION
KEEPING WINDS GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE JET AXIS WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO DIVE INTO KENTUCKY
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROF AND SHIFT THE
TROF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT LAST UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FINAL UPPER
WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA BRINGING MORE RAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER...TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...AND THE -20C LEVEL WILL BE
UNUSUALLY LOW. WITH CONVECTIVE CURRENTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-20C...HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH MID 30S DURING THE
NIGHT...PRECIP WHICH LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS IS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH CLOUDS BREAKING
UP ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S...AND DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES OVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE SET UP FOR A VERY HARD
FREEZE IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
IF THOSE CLOUDS DO NOT SHOW BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY SHOULD BE
SEEN BY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD US. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED SO THAT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH. A
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGHEST POP BEING ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THIS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR MIDWEEK...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
LOW LEVELS HAVE SATURATED THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR VARIABLE CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS PASS THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS.
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
35 MPH IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106-107.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1105 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON SATURDAY AND TRACKS
EASTWARD...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS/TDS/POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
STEADIER MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING UP ACROSS
THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAX GUSTS COMING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY BUT EXPECT LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD WITH POSSIBLY A
LITTLE SPLASH-OVER ON EXPOSED BEACHES. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530AM UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR SKIRTING COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ALOFT AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS AND TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WHERE WARMING CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A POTPOURRI OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WE HAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 50 KTS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THRU THE AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE
HAVE NOW WORKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR...ALOFT ANYWAY...WITH
GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WARM
ADVECTION FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POP THRU
MORNING...AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE DAY THOUGH. LOW PRES WILL
CONTINUE THRU SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST NAEFS FORECAST IS FOR WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES TO INCREASE OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ONE THING THIS IS SURE TO DO IS FORCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOUTHERLY FACING SLOPES WILL SEE
THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH UP TO 2 PLUS INCHES.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED S OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AS AROUND 2
INCHES OF QPF WILL START TO BRING SOME FLASHIER RIVERS CLOSER TO
FLOOD STAGE.
A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH OF THAT JET
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD
WATER IS A GREAT RECIPE FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND
LESS WIND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL JET AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW IN ALTITUDE...SO I
FEEL THAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GIVEN THAT ANGLE IS
MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEASTERLY...I FEEL THAT THE MIDCOAST WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO HIGHER WINDS THIS TIME AROUND THAN PWM SWD.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH NAM MIXING TO AROUND
40 TO 45 KTS FOR COASTAL SWRN ME. SEACOAST NH WILL BE GUSTY...BUT
THERE ISN/T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 40 PLUS KT GUSTS. FOR THE
MIDCOAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z...THE CORE OF THE JET PASSES
OVERHEAD. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 50 KT WIND
GUST POTENTIAL...AS DO HRRR FORECASTS. WITH HEAVY PRECIP IN THE
AREA THAT ONLY ADDS TO THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
MIDCOAST COASTAL ZONES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY INLAND FROM THERE. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM PWM ON S TO THE
NH BORDER.
FINALLY TEMPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
PREVENT A SHARP WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GRADUALLY THOSE WINDS
ERODE THE COLDER SURFACE AIR AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER MIX OUT LOW LEVELS
AND KEEP THINGS MILD THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. TEMP TRENDS ARE NON-DIURNAL IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF...WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BREEZY WLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH ACTIVE WX IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS MAINLY COMPRISED OF A
MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A SEMI
PERMANENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... FURTHER
ENTRENCHED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN RELATIVELY COOL
WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... IT WILL USHER IN A COLD NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRESH PUSH OF COLD
AIR TO MOVE IN. AS IT DOES SO... A WAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL NOT
TERRIBLY CONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW... BUT
THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW... MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL STAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MOVE OUT TO SEA BEFORE IMPACTING DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT AT THIS POINT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOW
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S... IF SNOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT WAVE IN THE BROADER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND... LED AT THE SURFACE BY A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK...
LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SERIES OF IMPULSES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND COLDER AIR WILL BE
RETURNING. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS
WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES NWD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THRU
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 12Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. AS CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT HIE. HIE IS ALSO MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SYSTEM...AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TRYING TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON
FRIDAY BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL LOW BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE WATERS AROUND
00Z...AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI.
LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES... POSSIBLY
REACHING GALE STRENGTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND WE EXPECT SPLASHOVER ISSUES DURING THE
LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
SSE...SO THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC CASE WITH THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE EKMAN SPIRAL. NEVERTHELESS...AN ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 11.5 FT IN
PORTLAND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH 10 PLUS FOOT WAVES... NEAR
STORM FORCE WINDS...AND A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET TO
PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE (1158 PM
TONIGHT IN PORTLAND HARBOR). MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE
WAY UP THE COAST TO THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE TODAY WILL ALSO BE MONITORED. HIGH
WATER IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
BUILDING...RESULTING IN A SMALLER STORM SURGE. HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ020>022.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SNOW WHITEN THE GROUND WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SIMILAR TO LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH. NO
SIGNS OF A PROLONG WARM UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP/ HRRR PROGS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 IN
PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD. HOWEVER AFTER REVIEW OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS NEXT TO NIL
DESPITE BEING IN A GENERAL THUNDER AREA DEFINED BY SPC. ELECTED TO
MAINTAIN A THUNDER FREE FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO CRASH TONIGHT ALONG WITH SPOKES
OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY THE TIME ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW...MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL RESIDE TO OUR EAST. AS
SUCH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION SAVE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN MARYLAND. MODELS APPEAR TO OVERCAST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH A
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN WHAT IS PREDICTED...THIS IS WHY WE
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE NCEP SUITE. BUFR SOUNDINGS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ILLUSTRATE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING YIELDING POTENTIALLY
DECENT SIZE WET SNOW FLAKES AROUND 6Z WHEN RAIN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW. WINDS WON`T CONTRIBUTE TO A HUGE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE...WHICH IS WHY AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR FRIDAY PASSAGE...WITH COLD FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THAT DISTURBANCE
SPAWNING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE RIDGES...AND
OVER ZONES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. AS ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THE GFS WAS USED IN GENERAL CONSTRUCTION OF THE PRECIP
DEPICTION FOR THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST...WHILE MODIFIED SOURCE
TEMPS WERE USED FOR SNOW RATIOS GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
VARIOUS MODEL/GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF TOTALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
AN UPSTREAM REINFORCING SHORTWAVE INITIATES WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF IT. THAT WARMTH WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL WEATHER WITH THAT SYSTEMS
PASSAGE. GIVEN SHORTWAVE TIMING ISSUES AND CONVOLUTED FLOW
PATTERNS...SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LONG TERM FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW
TRAILING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HOLD PRIMARILY
TO MVFR...BUT COULD DROP TO IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH FROM 03Z TO
ABOUT 08Z...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ANY TIME.
.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...TAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
955 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER...REINFORCING SECONDARY FRONTS WILL
FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...
REST OF TODAY: COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA... CURRENTLY BISECTING CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT PACE AND NEAR
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT
BRUSHED ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN AND SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS... ALONG WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS
INCLUDING THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. BUT
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING... WITH A SECONDARY PEAK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SRN AND ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A WNW JET CORE OVER TN. MUCH DRIER
AIR HAS ARRIVED AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTIGATED BY
HEATING/MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PERSISTENT
HEIGHT FALLS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING... WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 65-72. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY: A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AND 50KT LLJ ARE DRIVING A BAND
OF CONVECTION THROUGH WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE
HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NC/SC. DESPITE A RAPID
DEWPOINT RECOVERY SINCE 00Z...THERE IS LITTLE ANALYZED INSTABILITY
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200
J/KG OF NEAR SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
AT BEST...WITH SOME MORE APPRECIABLE BUT WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 13Z. RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE SOME SHEARING
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND A RADAR TRENDS TEND TO SUPPORT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER FORCING. STILL... THE INTENSITY OF
THE LLJ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME 30-40KT GUSTS
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BETTER AIRMASS LATE THIS MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE
THREAT OF A SEVERE STORM...WHILE LOW...WILL ALSO INCREASE. RAINFALL
TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
FOR MOST.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND DRYING...WITH MIXING TO AS HIGHS 800MB
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S
EAST. WITHING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SECONDARY VORT LOBE AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING..WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED WIND
GUESTS TO 35-40KT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO STAY IN THE 30-35KT RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 25-
30KT RANGE ELSEWHERE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU
DRIFTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO
THE 40S..IF NOT UPPER 30S INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRI...WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~20 M/12 HR) LINGERING OVER
SC/SOUTHERN NC. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRI
NIGHT...WITH A CONCENTRATED PRECEDING AREA OF MUCH STRONGER MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~120 M/12 HR) AND COLD POOL ALOFT (~ MINUS 38 C)
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A CLIPPER-TYPE
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH RAPID
DEEPENING LIKELY AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE WAVES REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TRAILING POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS
CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT.
DESPITE SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ON FRI...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
MOISTENING/AROUND 700 MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS...THEN WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR
SURFACE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...IT WILL BE
MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT - IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS IN
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.
DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG CAA AND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH AS THE CENTER OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE OH VALLEY...30-40 KTS OF NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-UPPER 50S.
THE CENTER OF CP HIGH...AROUND 1030 MB BY 12Z SUN...WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1285 METERS AT 12Z SUN SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE 20S --BETWEEN 22 AND 28 DEGREES-- COLDEST IN
OUTLYING WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...AND HIGHEST IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SOME LINGERING NNW STIRRING WILL POSSIBLE IN
A LINGERING LIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM THURSDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUN AND OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS THAT MAY INTERACT AS THEY APPROACH THE
EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
--INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH(S)...CENTERED
AROUND THE DAY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS...MOST LIKELY MVFR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED WIND GUST OF UP TO 30-35KT FOR KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. THE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE SITES BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL VARY AREAWIDE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVE QUICKLY AS A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND STRENGTHENS AND CLOUDS SCATTER/LIFT TO 6-7K FT. WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME MAY
EXCEED 30KT AT KGSO/KINT BEFORE DYING OFF TO 10KT OR LESS BY
MIDNIGHT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KGSO/KINT.
OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...2
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
LATER IN THE DAY. A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
DAYBREAK UPDATE. CURRENT FOCUS IS TRACKING THE LINE OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH POSE A WIND THREAT THIS MORNING...THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WATER VAPOR DATA ILLUSTRATING NICELY THE APPROACHING AND
AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC
EARLY THIS MORNING INLAND AND MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY WIND ENERGY
ACCOMPANIES THIS EARLY SPRING TROUGH WITH A 925-850 MB WIND MAXIMA
DEPICTED IN RAP13 ISOTACH PLOTS BETWEEN 4AM INLAND TO 9-11 AM OFF
THE SC AND NC COAST RESPECTIVELY. CONSEQUENTLY SPC HAS UPPED THE
ANTE WITH `MARGINAL` RISK THIS MORNING.
ITS ONLY FITTING A CHANGEABLE WEEK SHOULD HAVE A CHANGEABLE DAY
AND TODAY AFTER THE UNSETTLED START...SUNSHINE SHOULD DEBUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
REALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MAXIMUMS. WEAK DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE LIMITED SO SLIGHT
CHANCE. COOL AIR ADVECTION LATE WILL BRING MINIMUMS INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAIN HEADLINES ARE
DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW TURNING NW LATE SATURDAY...AS A POLAR
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS DIPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. FREEZE WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES FOR THE COLD AIR
SUNDAY MORNING. ESSENTIALLY FAIR THIS PERIOD ASIDE FROM COLD AIR
INTRUSION. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY ILM 31...FLO 28...MYR 33.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HELPS TO REVERSE
THIS LATEST RELENTLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THIS IS A LATE DAY
OCCURRENCE HOWEVER SUNDAY ITSELF WILL END UP QUITE CHILLY ALBEIT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY
CLEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BUT
MUCH MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN THIS NEW WARM ADVECTION
REGIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE AND MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE RISE. SAID MOISTURE WILL YIELD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE COLD
ADVECTION APPEARS QUITE WEAK. ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE AS MUCH HINGING
UPON POSSIBLE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS ANY THERMAL ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION IN THREE OR FOUR HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AROUND 09-10Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 12-13Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS.
ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MORE OF A
WESTERLY WIND...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 AM THURSDAY...STRONG ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED...A LINE
OF CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE 40 KT GUSTS ON THE
WATERS AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE IF HEADING OUT THIS
MORNING. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE S SHIFTING TO WSW MID AFTERNOON. SEAS ELEVATED WILL PEAK
AT 5-8 FT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
IN AND NEAR TSTMS. WSW WINDS BECOMING WNW LATE TONIGHT 15-20 KT
AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SEAS RECOVERING EARLY FRIDAY WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE AS MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS HOLD IN A 10-15 KT RANGE ON
FRIDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHER OFFSHORE. LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONDITIONS WORSEN AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS OPEN THE
DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ADVISORY W WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND ALL OF SATURDAY MAY BE PLAGUED
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... SUNDAY A VERY TRANSITIONAL DAY AS WINDS START
EARLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND AT SLIGHTLY AGITATED SPEEDS FOLLOWED
BY A QUICK RELAXATION AND ALL DAY DIRECTIONAL VEERING. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, THEN
OVERHEAD, THEN OFF THE COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE AREA
KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH A FEW SITES PERIODICALLY HITTING 30MPH SUSTAINED.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THAT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY
WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925MB-850MB WINDS SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASING.
PLUS...THE SITES THAT ARE HITTING 30MPH ARE RIGHT AT 30MPH AND NOT
STRONGER...FOR ONLY BRIEF PERIODS.
-SN/-RA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. NOT SEEING MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATION...AND IN FACT MOST ROADS ARE WET ACCORDING TO
WEBCAMS (SFC TEMPS 32F-36F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST ND
AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
NORTH MAN AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. MAN TROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
FRI. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN.
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO UP IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THE AFTN FOR RANSOM AND SARGENTCOUNTIES.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MAN SAT NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND
EAST ZONES FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OF A PATTERN
CHANGE COMING UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MORE
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWER THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKS
DRY AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/GFS DOES NOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN. EASTERN ND WAS UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING IN EASTERN ND. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE RED RIVER
BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING. MORE MVFR CIGS MAY ROTATE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO NORTHWEST MN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FOSTER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES
AND MOVED UP THE START TIME TO THE CURRENT HOUR FOR THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON THE AWOS/
ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN...WHICH HAVE MET
ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE ABOUT 11 UTC...AND RAP AND HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-LAYER WINDS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AT KMOT/KJMS HIGHLIGHT THE
AVIATION CONCERNS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY BKN MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS COVERING
KMOT/KJMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18-20Z THURSDAY. KBIS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF LOW VFR/MVFR UNTIL 16Z. OTHERWISE
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
22KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-037-048-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ043>047-050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WE`LL SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH WITH A SOLID JOB
AT MOISTENING FROM MID LEVELS DOWN. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH 1/2 INCH...BUT 1 INCH VALUES ARE PUSHING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. CIRA LPW TOTALS SUGGEST WE ARE UP TO ABOUT .70 NOW WITH
INCREASING CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WE SHOULD HIT .75
OR .8 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER VALUES OVERNIGHT (OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR APRIL). THE HIGHEST EVER APRIL PRECIPITABLE
WATER MEASUREMENT FROM A SOUNDING IS 1.07...NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
AS EXPECTED INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW WITH LOTS
OF VIRGA MOISTENING UP THE SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT
IDEA THOUGH...ALONG WITH U OF A WRF TRENDS. INCREASING SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A BIT CONVECTIVE
TOMORROW...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES OVER THE
NEXT 30 HOURS AROUND .1 TO .3 OF AN INCH IN VALLEYS AND .6 TO 1 INCH
IN MOUNTAINS. LOTS OF OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE...SO LOCALLY HEAVIER
POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SLOPES.
AFTER A BREAK SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS LOOKING SOLID FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A COOLER SYSTEM...THIS ONE MIGHT SEE AN FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FEET.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD BET. AFTER THAT...IT DEPENDS ON HOW THE RIDGE SETS UP IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT COULD ALLOW ANOTHER SYSTEM TO UNDERCUT LATE
NEXT WEEK...OR IT COULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW THAT EMPHASIZES
PLENTY OF WIND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 4-9K FT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLD
-SHRA POSSIBLE THRU 08/00Z...THEN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THEREAFTER THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MOST COVERAGE FROM KTUS NORTH AND
EASTWARD. SOME ISOLD -TSRA PSBL AS WELL ON FRIDAY. GUSTY SLY/SWLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WILL TAPER OFF AFT 08/01Z WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 08/18Z...BECOMING SWLY 8-16
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ON FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WITH BREEZES. THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MEYER/LADER
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
959 AM PDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. A MORE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY WITH MORE LIKELY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY AND THE NEXT WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED MONDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY COASTAL/VALLEY SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...BASED ON OBS/RADAR. RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH
TRACE TO 0.04 INCHES ACCUMULATION SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. THE LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO
THE REST OF THE SERVICE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AS THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FURTHER...MORE RAINFALL WILL REACH THE
SURFACE. WRF AND HRRR FOCUS THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH AMOUNTS OF
0.10-0.25 INCHES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.
/GREGORIA
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST... WITHOUT MUCH SUN TEMPS WILL BE WAY DOWN
FROM WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES LOWER IN SOME
AREAS. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION AND
TEMPORARILY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A DEEPER...MORE INTENSE TROUGH MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. THIS ONE HAS MORE COLD AIR AND
ORGANIZATION. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MAIN
BAND OF RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WILL WAIT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY PORTION BELOW FOR MORE ON
AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. THAT STORM WILL MOVE OUT ON
SUNDAY. BUT BEFORE WE CAN EVEN DRY OUT...HERE COMES THE NEXT STORM
WHICH LOOKS WEAKER ON MONDAY. NOT AS MUCH RAIN...SNOW OR WIND. JUST
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY BUT WEDNESDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY. MAYBE ONLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THEN. THE GFS AND EURO MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
REAL POWERFUL DIGGING TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING OFF WHAT WOULD BE AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM.
STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION... 071525Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL NEAR THE COAST AND MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS
AOA 5000 FT MSL THROUGH FRI MORNING. INCREASING -SHRA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING ISOLATED THIS EVENING. VIS LOCALLY REDUCED TO
5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT MSL
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 8000 FT MSL THROUGH
FRI MORNING. SCT -SHRA WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. -SHRA
BECOMING ISOLATED TONIGHT. COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS MAY BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES IN CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
840 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND CHOPPY SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BEACHES... 840 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
SURF WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY FROM 280 DEGREES AND 4 TO 6 FEET.
&&
HYDROLOGY...
NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THAT IS WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MORE FOCUSED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION ALONG WITH THAT BAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR IN THOSE THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCAL SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING MAY OCCUR. AMOUNTS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE COASTAL
BASIN AND ONE TO TWO PLUS INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS WILL
FALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...GROGORIA/MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
528 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO
BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-
VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
* A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY.
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE
COAST BY MID WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S
FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND...SOME OF THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE IS STARTING TO SIGNAL THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS FURTHER S. NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FURTHER S THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE CANADIAN GGEM FURTHEST
S. THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS PRECIP AS FAR N AS THE MASS PIKE...AN
OVERALL AVERAGE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N CT/S RI INTO S COASTAL MA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. MODELS
ALSO PUSHING THIS LOW OFFSHORE FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF A BIT QUICKER. BEST QPF WILL
OCCUR DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER FROM NEAR THE
CAPE COD CANAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA/S
VINEYARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING.
OVERALL QPF EXPECTED TO BE FROM 0.1 INCHES OR LESS FROM NEAR THE
MASS PIKE UP TO PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN...RANGING TO ABOUT 0.25
INCHES FROM AROUND KIJD-KPVD-KEWB...THEN UP CLOSE TO 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND THE ISLANDS.
DID USE WET BULB TEMPS TO HELP DETERMINE TRANSITION OVER TO -SN
BUT JUST NOT QUITE ENOUGH QPF LEFT. WHILE MANY SPOTS MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT/N RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...IF THAT
HAPPENS.
WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET EARLY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO N-NW
WINDS.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT E COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT. PLEASE SEE THE
TIDAL AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE BY SUN MORNING...WITH MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W. NW WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY WILL BACK TO W-SW AND DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 40S..EXCEPT UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH
SE. PRECIP MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY DURING SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AS THE PRECIP COMMENCES...SO WILL
SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MIXED
RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE SHORE. THE SNOW WILL START BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E. DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIP STARTS...THERE MAY BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE...THEN LESS
THAN A INCH ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE THOUGH...WILL SEE THE SNOW CHANGE
QUICKLY OVER TO RAIN FROM S-N BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL
NOT LAST LONG EITHER AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS S-SW WINDS PICK UP. AS THE
FRONT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW...IT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME TIMING ISSUES AT PLAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY...SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING
THERE. AT THIS POINT...MAY SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QPF MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS DURING TUE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT SO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED...BUT MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE
FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY...BUT
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA.
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN
AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND
MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
ALONG THE S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START
SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.
TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY
SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME
DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN
FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND
DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
449 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO
BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN THE
LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GARDEN-
VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
* A BRIEF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL PERIOD ON MONDAY.
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY...STALLING OFF THE
COAST BY MID WEEK
OVERVIEW...
12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW AND AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIFT NE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE NORTHEAST AGAIN THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THIS WEEK/S
FEATURE. MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ALONG IN THE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST BY MID WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
DAILIES...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY SAT MORNING...LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF -RA.
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG S COAST. PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO -SN
AWAY FROM THE S COAST AFTER 03Z-04Z WITH MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W-E TOWARD SUN MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. N WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA EARLY
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING EXCEPT MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
CAPE UNTIL MIDDAY. W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ALONG CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN MAINLY -RA ALONG THE COAST AND
MIXED -RA/-SN/-PL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND. EXPECT PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO -RA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON
NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG. SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
ALONG THE S COAST.
TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKET OF IFR AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN POCKETS OF RAIN AND
PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NW WINDS TO START
SAT...THEN VEER TO NE AND INCREASE. N-NE GUSTS MAY REACH GALE
FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING AT AROUND 5 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
MONDAY...WINDS BACK TO S-SW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE COAST. SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.
TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. MAY
SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND SOME
DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN
FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND
DOES PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGHB NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARION
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GARDEN-VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASUREABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE
* WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
OVERVIEW...
BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH
ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT
WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DAILIES...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND
EAST TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN
THE PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW
FEET AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM
-RA OR - SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT
NIGHT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.4 TO 1.8 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS US WELL WITHIN THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT
COUNTY SEEM A LITTLE LESS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE 4
PM SURGE VALUES SEEM TO HAVE PLATEAUED BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 FEET AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NEWPORT
COUNTY AND WESTPORT OPEN COASTLINE AND MAY CAUSE OVERWASH AND
SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST ISLAND
CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND
DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA
SOUTH COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE.
THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH
SOME FLOODING OF SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS
BEFORE HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SURGE WILL START TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH A 35 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL S OR SSW WIND DOES
PERSIST THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO ANY EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALL ALONG THE MA EAST COAST. A N OR NNE WIND IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND THUS THE STRETCH OF
SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL TO PLYMOUTH TO
SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. IT IS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT NE AND N FACING SHORELINES
SOUTH OF BOSTON MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM THE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. SOME EROSION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET...HOWEVER...TO POST
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... ONE THIS EVENING AND A
SECOND LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGHB NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TRIPLE-POINT LOW MOVING FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
WILL PASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR SHOWS ONE
FINAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA BY 23Z. BECAUSE THE OVERALL
MOTION OF THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE A STRONG NORTHWARD
COMPONENT...TIMING CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGH
SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SIT OVER ONTARION
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD POOL INSTABILITY GENERATES TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HILLS WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CARRY LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES...SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GARDEN-VARIETY.
MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE 40-45. THAT LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD POOL
WILL BRING STEEP VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
DRYING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH THE MIXED LAYER
REACHING ABOVE 850 MB AND POSSIBLY TO 800 MB.
WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MASS. THE MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST AND THE UPPER 40S
WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPART BUT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME
POP GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS INTO CT AND RI BUT NONE OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW ANY MEASUREABLE PCPN THIS SIDE OF NYC
BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY. SO WE WILL GO AGAINST THE GRIDS AND KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE
* WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
OVERVIEW...
BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH
ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT
WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DAILIES...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. EXPECT IFR VSBYS
AND MIXED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THESE SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL END. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO VFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF CT AND WESTERN MASS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR. WEST WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH BEST CHANCE IN RI/EASTERN
MASS. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND
EAST TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 12 FEET ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIMINISH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AND GALES WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL LINGER NEAR 25 KNOTS ON MOST WATERS
OVERNIGHT BUT MAY DIP LOWER CLOSE TO SHORE.
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH ROUGH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SEAS LINGER
5-8 FEET OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. HEIGHTS CLOSER
TO SHORE MAY DIP BELOW 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ON SOME WATERS BUT MAY EXPIRE CLOSER TO SHORE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN
THE PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW
FEET AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM
-RA OR - SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT
NIGHT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH
THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY HIGH END
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED
BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL
APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY OPEN COASTLINE AND LIKELY CAUSE
OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST
ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND
DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH
COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE
THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF
SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START
TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SEEM TO BE
TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER N OR NNE GRADIENT WITH TIME...AND ISSUANCE OF COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
FOR THE MA EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL
TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.
WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS THREAT LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR TO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. EXPECT UNSETTLED AND
COOL CONDITIONS AS COLD POOL OF AIR REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE SURFACE
INVERSION...GENERALLY AROUND 925-950 MB. ALB SOUNDING HAD 40
KNOTS...OKX SOUNDING HAD 45 KNOTS...CHATHAM SOUNDING HAD 55 KNOTS.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 55-60F WERE NEEDED TO ELIMINATE THE
INVERSION. THIS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT OF ANY
SHOWERS AS SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM IS TRANSFERRED TO THE
SURFACE. MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURENCE CONTINUES TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT MODELS SHOWED THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 50 KNOTS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE CORE GROWS TO 60
KNOTS AS IT SHIFTS OVER CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND 75
KNOTS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CT/CENTRAL MASS WILL EXPAND
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NY/PA MOVES EAST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND EARLY TONIGHT AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEASONALLY
HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE SPEED OF MOTION OF THE SHOWERS DOESN/T POINT TO A
GENERAL FLOOD THREAT...BUT POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE USUAL LOCATIONS.
CHANGES...
WE HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST WINDS A LITTLE...AND BECAUSE
OF THIS WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER MOST OF RI AND
EASTERN MASS. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CT/WESTERN MASS
ESPECIALLY IN ANY SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING LOWER VALUES THAN AREAS
FARTHER EAST DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM WERE MOSTLY 3-5F WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. WE
BUMPED FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. BUT CONSENSUS WOULD
BRING A COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE CT VALLEY AROUND 8PM/00Z AND THE
HILLS/EAST BY MIDNIGHT/04Z. A SECOND COLD FRONT LAGS THE FIRST BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS.
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH...AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL
KEEP CLOUDS OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK...SOME OF WHICH MAY EDGE INTO
OUR AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF RI AND CENTRAL MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW SAT/SUN COULD BRING MORE APRIL SNOW TO SNE
* WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* MODERATING TEMPS WITH RAIN CHC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
OVERVIEW...
BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE 2 TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL...INDICATING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. POTENT
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE IN PART TO STRONG BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE
TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH
ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT
WEEK...ANTICIPATE NEW ENGLAND TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND
NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT TUESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WE WILL GET
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BELIEVE FRIDAY TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERY WEATHER THANKS TO COLD CORE
LOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED A CHC OF POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING LOW...RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20-30 MPH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. OVERALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THIS
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT THE REGION WILL BE
IMPACTED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AS THE EC IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
SEEM TO BE MORE INLINE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SPREAD IN THE SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. BECAUSE OF
THIS TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR NOW
UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS 3 DAYS AWAY THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. IF THIS LOW DOES PASS FARTHER TO THE
EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.
FOR THIS FORECAST THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM INTO THE 40S
BEFORE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES ONSHORE...ANTICIPATE A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUCTION WITH A POTENTIAL DEFORMATION
ZONE. BECAUSE TEMPS ARE VERY COLD ALOFT...PRECIP WILL DRAG THE COLD
AIR DOWN RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK THUMP OF SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 1-3 INCHES POINTS
EAST OF A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE EXACT STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL
FLOODING AS TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT ANTICIPATE A DRY WEATHER DAY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN SNE GETTING WARM SECTORED FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT EITHER DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
BY WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN RAIN AND
FOG. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS. WINDS AT
2000 FEET AGL WILL BE 50-60 KNOTS...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WINDS ABOVE THE CT
VALLEY MAY BE A LITTLE LESS...MORE LIKE 40-50 KNOTS...BUT STILL
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH TO OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SHOULD BRING
CIGS AND VSBYS UP TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN -
SHRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST
TERMINALS DUE TO -RA OR -SN. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WIND
SPEEDS REACHING 35-40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-12 FEET ON THE
SOUTH-EXPOSED WATERS. LOCALLY POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. COULD ALSO BE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH. ROUGH
SEAS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
DIMINISH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
RESULTING IN GUSTY WSW WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS. LOW PROB FOR A FEW
GALES. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS SNE WATER...STRENGTHENING IN THE
PROCESS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SEAS A FEW FEET
AS WNA GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE. VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED FROM -RA OR -
SN. SCA WILL BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROB OF GALES BY SAT NIGHT/SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
TO RELAX. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR SCA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI/MA S
COAST INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BUZZARDS BAY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING /8-9 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
WE EXPECT A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH
THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY HIGH END
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND THE EXPOSED
BARRIER BEACHES OF NEWPORT COUNTY. WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL
APPROACH THE NEWPORT COUNTY OPEN COASTLINE AND LIKELY CAUSE
OVERWASH AND SOME DEBRIS BEING DEPOSITED ONTO ROADWAYS. THE WEST
ISLAND CAUSEWAY IN FAIRHAVEN MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND
DEBRIS.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ALL MODELS PEAK THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE RI/MA SOUTH
COAST IN THE 20Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SLIDE THE CORE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE TIME OF THE 01Z...OR 9 PM EDT...HIGH TIDE. THUS...ANTICIPATE
THE HIGH TIDE TO COME IN QUICKLY AND EARLY WITH SOME FLOODING OF
SHORE ROADS POSSIBLE BY 7 PM...A GOOD 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE WILL START
TO RELAX SOME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SEEM TO BE
TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
NOTE THAT THE CAPE COD ZONE IS INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE
REASON IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE SIDE OF BUZZARDS BAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE IN PROVINCETOWN AS WELL
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOSTON HAS A VERY HIGH ASTRO
TIDE OF 12.2 FEET AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...SO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER N OR NNE GRADIENT WITH TIME...AND ISSUANCE OF COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
FOR THE MA EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. THE STRETCH OF SHORELINE MOST AT RISK WOULD LIKELY BE HULL
TO PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.
WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS THREAT LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
012>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-255-
256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
348 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. THE MODIFIED REX BLOCK
CONFIGURATION OVER THE PACIFIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW FULLY EVOLVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
FORCED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW
RAPIDLY EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AND IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. THIS
DRYING IS SHOWN WELL IN NWP CROSS SECTION FORECASTS AND SHOULD BE
SAMPLED WELL WITH THE EVENING KTBW RAOB. YET ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DURING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS ENERGY AND THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...ITS PASSAGE WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SET UP A COOL
WEEKEND FOR APRIL AROUND THESE PARTS.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...MOVING SOUTH OF LEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR ALL ZONES
GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE FOR FRIDAY...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MAKES
ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FORECAST OVERALL IS RATHER BENIGN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...GIVING WAY TO A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT.
SREF/NARRE ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
AFTER 09Z OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY LOOKS VERY PLEASANT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND. DECENT DIURNAL MIXING WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
12-13C RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEACHES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY EVENING EVERYONE!
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
RAIN CHANCES ARE NON- EXISTENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING BELOW WITH IT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER AS IS COMMON FOR APRIL.
AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLOW
BECOMES MORE EAST TO SE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS WE WILL
SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE
AND NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING IN DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT IS JUST CROSSING
SOUTH OF KFMY/KRSW SHIFTING THEIR WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AROUND KLAL/KPGD TOWARD DAWN
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION
OF FRIDAY AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS SECOND FRONT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35% RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
SPOTS RECEIVE BORDERLINE INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 78 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 83 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 75 59 75 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 58 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 78 62 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
100 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE TO
CONTINUE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SHAVE A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS.
A ONCE AGAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD UPPER LOW...WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE 925MB TEMPERATURES MEASURED ON 12Z RAOBS WERE -2C AT DVN AND
-4C AT GRB WHICH IS ABOUT THE 10TH LOWEST PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR. THIS COLD ADVECTION IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAINS THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. SUCH SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PARTS OF THE AREA THE PAST
HOUR TO TWO AND ONE BRIEFLY BROUGHT ORD DOWN TO 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY
EARLIER. RAP PREDICTED CAPE OF 25-50 J/KG DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS
AS ROBUST OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL COULD
GET SOME QUICK VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
GRAUPEL IF NOT SNOW (HAD A REPORT OF THAT EARLIER FROM GURNEE
ILLINOIS).
FORECAST HIGHS ARE 40 TO 45 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR
OBSERVED REGIONAL 925MB TEMPERATURES NOTED ABOVE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
329 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...IN THE
WAKE HAS BEEN A COOL/MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER WAVE WAS
BEGINNING TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT HAS TAKEN ON SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKLY FORCED INVERTED
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING...AND COUPLED
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE BETWEEN
10 TO 20 MPH HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE BETTER
PARCEL LIFT...AND AS ELUDED TO EARLIER CONCERNING A WEAKLY FORCED
INVERTED TROUGH...THE ABILITY TO LIFT THE PARCEL HAS DIMINISHED AND
IS PROVIDING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN OR IN SOME LOCATIONS LGT
SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SOLID LIFT...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT
SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SNOW GROWTH WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA AND ALONG THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST COLD AIR PUSH. THE THICK CLOUD
COVER WILL INHIBIT ANY SIZEABLE WARMING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL TRY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY ALONG
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF IL THIS AFTN AND COULD PULL COOLER AIR
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO AREAS SUCH AS WAUKEGAN TO CHICAGO AND HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIFT LATER TODAY...GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND EVEN CHANCES. HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTN.
WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE MID-LVLS HOLDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSHES EAST EARLY FRI. SO EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO
REMAIN DRY WITH SOME THINNING TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER. CONTINUED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
329 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A LOBE OF VORTICITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI...AND AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE CONTINUED SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WILL SEE INCREASED PARCEL LIFT AND LIKELY BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET FRI...THEN SLOWLY WARM TO
SUPPORT MAINLY LGT RAIN BY EARLY FRI AFTN.
HEADING INTO FRI EVENING THE STRONGER VORT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN WISC WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR. THERMAL TROUGH AT
850MBCONTINUES TO BE PROGGED IN THE -8 TO -14 DEG C RANGE BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP CHANGING BACK TO LGT SNOW
LATE FRI EVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LGT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND A DUSTING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO COULD APPROACH AN INCH.
FORTUNATELY THE DURATION OF LGT SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A
CANADIAN SFC RIDGE DIVES SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY AND COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP
COVERAGE AND STEADILY ERODE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THE THERMAL TROUGH
OF -8 TO -12 DEG C WILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY COOL SAT. HIGHS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S...DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN
BY SAT NGT AND SHIFTS THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK SUN AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE
STEADILY ADVECTING NORTH BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAVORABLE SUN NGT...SO
HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF ISO THUNDER. TEMPS SHUD APPROACH 50 TO
THE MID 50S BY SUN AFTN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL
SPREAD IN THE MON/TUE PERIODS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUT WEAKENING THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. LINGERING TROUGHING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS
LIKELY. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE
AMONGST SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT WEAK
RIDGING MAY ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AFTER THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTN/EVE...BROAD SFC
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER TUE/WED. THIS
WOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLES LEANING TOWARDS SOME WEAK
RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SEASONAL IN THE EXTENDED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAFS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
GRAUPEL IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS
TURNING MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN
IMPACTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE A
FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. WITH THE COLD ATMOSPHERE
ALOFT THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL OR EVEN LIGHT
SNOW. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY 38 OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...HAVE LEANED MORE WITH
GRAUPEL OR RAIN IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAN ANY SNOW.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. AS CAN OFTEN BE THE CASE
WITH NEAR DUE NORTH WINDS IN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...ARE
ANTICIPATING THEM TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS IS VERY
LOW...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO STILL HAVE 10KT OR HIGHER WINDS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE SHIFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK WEST
AND LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT ONE SPREADING IN
LIFT AND MOISTURE ALOFT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT THERE
TO BE AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD AND
ARRIVING IN ROCKFORD A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CHICAGO AT OR
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TYPE IS MORE FAVORED TO BE SNOW BUT IT
WILL BE CLOSE AND COULD AT LEAST START AS RAIN OR A MIX. ALL IN
ALL THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER THAN TWO OR
THREE HOURS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR 35 KT GALES SPREADING
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH HAVE ALLOWED ADDITIONAL MIXING
AND SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. AS SUCH UPGRADED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO A WIND ADVISORY AND ADDED A FEW COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS UPDATE
ACCOUNTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH. IN FACT
CLEARING HAS ALREADY WORKED INTO WAYNE COUNTY AS OF 1330Z. THE
CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW INCREASED MIXING AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. AS SUCH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
POINT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
WITH WINDS BEING FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OUR SW COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TODAY TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MATCH
UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS TONIGHT BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS.
ALSO DID A QUICK REFRESH OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS
TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES
FRIDAY MORNING...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS LIFTING OUT
OF OHIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
ZONE/ENHANCED MOISTURE/ PUSHING EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY. BEHIND THE
FRONT A DECENT MID LEVEL JET IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THE REGION
KEEPING WINDS GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE JET AXIS WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO DIVE INTO KENTUCKY
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP DEEPEN THE TROF AND SHIFT THE
TROF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT LAST UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FINAL UPPER
WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA BRINGING MORE RAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER...TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...AND THE -20C LEVEL WILL BE
UNUSUALLY LOW. WITH CONVECTIVE CURRENTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-20C...HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH MID 30S DURING THE
NIGHT...PRECIP WHICH LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS IS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH CLOUDS BREAKING
UP ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S...AND DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES OVER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE SET UP FOR A VERY HARD
FREEZE IF CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
IF THOSE CLOUDS DO NOT SHOW BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY SHOULD BE
SEEN BY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD US. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED SO THAT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH. A
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGHEST POP BEING ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THIS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR MIDWEEK...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
...STRONG GUST WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. WHERE THERE ARE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE
STRONGER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT SME AND
LOZ...WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS FURTHER NORTH.
WHILE SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106-107.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-113>118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
616 PM UPDATE...LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY, WE SEE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN, THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT THE
STEADIEST RAIN TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH 1-2 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT WARM
TEMPERATURES, WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RIVERS RISING IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE, WITH ICE MOVEMENT POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHERN RIVERS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST MAINE AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
70 KTS WILL MAXIMIZE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THEREFORE,
RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN
OVERNIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
DOWNEAST MAINE. AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER
BANGOR REGION INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR
THE CENTRAL PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A STEADY RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW ON THE NOSE OF A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE BEING NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
RISES ON AREA RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, AS WELL AS
SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. (PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS). EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO OUR
NORTH.
THE NEXT CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AS
A 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE.
AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND THE GREATER BANGOR REGION INTO
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A WIND ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN BANGOR.
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SHOWERS. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH A QUICK QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT GRAUPEL AND EVEN A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN
THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL
UNDER AN INCH. THE COLDER AIR WILL SLOW DOWN SNOW MELT IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS CLEARING
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. FURTHER
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHS
CLOSER TO 40F. LATER SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS
WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA DRAW COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE
ALLAGASH TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. USING AN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE FOR THE STORM TRACK...THE NET RESULT IS A GLANCING BLOW
FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR EASTPORT AND CALAIS. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
A COOL AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING IN THE CROWN
OF MAINE AND INCREASING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS 40F IN ELLSWORTH AND
MACHIAS. WINDS WILL GUST TOWARDS 30 MPH WITH A WELL-MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT INTO THE AREA. WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A SECOND LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL. MON MRNG THE WARM FRONT FRONT THE SECOND
LOW MOVES INTO SW MAINE AS THE HIGH RETREAT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
MID DAY MON THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO CNTRL ME...THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM NW ME TO THE OHIO RVR VLLY. MON EVNG THE COLD
FRONT MOVES TO NE ME...EXTENDS SW ALONG DOWNEAST ME INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. FROM MON EVNG TO TUES EVNG THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS...THE SYSTEMS LOW MOVES EAST INTO CNTRL
QUEBEC...WERE IT WILL CO-LOCATE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEEPING
THE AREA IN UNSETTLED WEATHER IN TO WED MRNG. BY WED AFTERNOON THE
LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE MARITIMES...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING THURS
MRNG INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BLOCKING SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA...CAUSING A TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NOT THE SAME BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...THE ECMWF RUNNING
ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY
FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT
ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
KBGR/KBHB THROUGH 06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM: LIKELY VFR TOWARDS BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTH OF HUL...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO CIGS
AND RAIN/SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
FINALLY BECOME VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO
BE VFR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY FVE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 30 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FEET LATE TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO
SCA LEVELS DURING FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT THAT AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE NEEDED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL SCA WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SUNDAY AS WIND GUSTS REACH 30 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE PISCATAQUIS
RIVER BASIN. SOME RIVERS COULD RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. IN
ADDITION...ICE STILL REMAINS ON SOME OF THE RIVERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE...INCLUDING THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT ALONG WITH
THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO CLOSE COINCIDENCE OF NEW MOON AND MOONS PERIGEE.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS AT APPROXIMATELY
11:38 PM TONIGHT AT BAR HARBOR AND 11:48 PM AT EASTPORT. LARGEST
WAVES AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE.
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A STORM SURGE
OF APPROXIMATELY 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER LEVELS OF 14.0 TO 15.0 FEET RELATIVE TO MLLW. THIS
COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE DEER ISLE CAUSEWAY...
STONINGTON HARBOR...WINTER HARBOR AND IN THE VICINITY OF MACHIAS.
NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 18 FEET AND PERIODS OF 11 TO 12
SECONDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE STORM TIDE. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING RUNUP AND OVERTOPPING AT THE
SEAWALL ROAD...OTTER COVE...SCHOODIC POINT AND ROQUE BLUFFS. THIS
COULD DEPOSIT SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE ROCKS AND SMALL DEBRIS ON
ADJACENT ROADWAYS...LARGE VOLUMES OF WATER WASHING ONTO ROADWAYS
AND EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS IS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TO VEHICLES AND
PEDESTRIANS. EROSION OF BEACHES AND EXPOSED AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO WAVE ACTION.
THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ACTION AND FRESH WATER RUN OFF COULD ALSO
PRODUCE TIDAL FLOODING IN THE BANGOR AREA. WATER LEVEL IN BANGOR
COULD COME CLOSE TO 11.60 FEET AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA/MJ
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/MCW
MARINE...CB/DUDA/MCW
HYDROLOGY...DUDA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
520 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
525 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AT COASTAL AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...COASTAL AND INTERIOR
YORK...AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES. RAP AS WELL AS HRRR INDICATE GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 8 PM. PORTLAND IS CURRENTLY NEARING SUSTAINED 35 MPH. MOST
SITES WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH GUSTS
HOWEVER. MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS IN THE MISO/MESOSCALE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
OVER- SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL
LOOKING FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WHITES. SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING
OFF IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 800 AND
900 PM WITH PRECIP LIFTING OUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
WINDS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PEAK DURING THE THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL BE CONTINUING HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON NORTHERN RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAM SOME OF WHICH WILL APPROACH BANKFULL RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING. THIS WILL NOT BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR
VARIABLE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
LOW PRESSURE MON-TUE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR AS COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS REGION. COOLER BUT DRY END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT. VFR ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIELINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH 4 AM. WIDELY SCT STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLY LOW END GALES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM
SURGE THIS EVENING RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, (1158 PM IN PORTLAND HARBOR).
MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE
PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ019-023-024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ020>022.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-013-014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...EKSTER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight)
Remaining showers are expected to slowly wane this evening with dry
weather expected overnight tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool tonigth with lows mainly in the 30s...though above freezing
thanks to a partly to mostly cloudy sky and northwest winds between
10 and 15 mph.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Friday - Saturday)
Upper-level trough will amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the
country with the strongest of the cold air push behind shortwave
diving southeast through the far western Great Lakes. Airmass
continues to look quite strong for early/mid April with 850-hPa
temperatures bottoming out between -5 and -10C from west to east
acorss the CWA by 1200 UTC Saturday. Timing of surface ridge which
is of utmost importance for sfc winds (and ergo temperatures)
continues to look slightly faster than 24-48 hours. This would put
more of the CWA in line for a hard freeze as boundary layer
decouples with approach of strong sfc ridge. The light winds
combined with a anticipated clear sky and dewpoints in the teens
will create very favorable conditions for strong radiational
cooling. Will continue freeze watch for the entire CWA for now with
an upgrade to a freeze warning likely coming over the next 24 hours.
Forecast lows range from the the 20s across portions of northeast
Missouri to near 32 across the urban heat island of St. Louis.
Fairly cold day for early/mid April standards still on tap for
Saturday. Combination of cold start to the day and some increasing
midlevel clouds from west to east will also help keep temps down a
bit. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s or about 10-
15 degrees below normal.
(Saturday Night - Monday Night)
Temperatures will moderate late this weekend and into early next
week as return flow commences around departing sfc ridge and
mid/upper level flow regime transitions to a more zonal pattern.
Chances of showers will begin as early as Saturday night with
increasing chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms for
Sunday/Monday. Cold front forecast to move through the CWA by Monday
afternoon which will also shunt the rainfall threat southeast of the
area by late Monday night.
(Tuesday - Next Thursday)
Seasonably cool air will be across the mid-Mississippi Valley for
the middle of next week as the weather pattern is dominated by an
upper-level trough across the northern Great Lakes/New England.
Nearfreezing or sub-freezing lows are a possibility both Monday
andTuesday night...particularly for portions of northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. At sfc...initially northerly
flow will slowly veer to the east and eventually southeast by
Thursday. A slow warmup will begin as a result along with continued
dry conditions.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Low level CAA and deep mixing will once again result in another day
of gusty northwesterly surface winds on Friday. The combination of
mixing associated with the deep mixed layer and the already low
ambient dew points will also promote low relative humidity values in
the afternoon in the 25-30 percent range. Fuel moisture values are
expected to be at least 9-10 percent. Present indications are that
heightened fire danger conditions will be rather widespread,
especially along and west of the MS River. Portions of central MO
will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to Red Flag
Conditions if min RH values evolve lower.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 41 56 32 51 / 60 5 0 0
Quincy 35 50 25 49 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 37 57 30 54 / 10 0 0 5
Jefferson City 38 58 30 53 / 10 0 0 5
Salem 38 54 29 49 / 20 10 0 0
Farmington 40 56 30 51 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Compact shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft continues to move
through through the fcst region this afternoon...with spotty
shwrs/storms noted across much of the Lower Missouri Vly. If this
weren`t enough...forecast area remains under the gun for ongoing fire
weather concerns as well this afternoon due to strong winds and dry
conditions...and more details on the fire concerns are provided
below. In any event...aforementioned shortwave now crossing the
IA/MO state line...and aside from several reports of pea sized
hail...ongoing activity should have little impact on the area and
activity should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two.
Heading into tonight...skies should clear as sfc ridging becomes
better established over the Central Plains. This should allow temps
to fall into the middle to upper 30s across most areas...with a few
low 30s possible across far north-central Missouri.
Ridge axis becomes firmly established across the area on Friday with
another surge of cold air expected to dive south through the
afternoon thanks to the passage of a another cold front during the
afternoon. This secondary surge should set the stage for a
widespread freeze early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s across many areas. From this vantage point
it appears a freeze headline will be needed...but will allow later
shifts the opportunity to issue due to the number of flags currently
in effect. Upcoming weekend will start dry as weak 850 ridging builds
overhead through the day on Saturday...but surface temps will be slow
to rebound as main warm front remains west of the area. As a
result...expect high temps to top out in the mid to upper 50s
Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday...attention will be drawn to the West Coast as a closed
upper low begins moving inland over southern California. As this
feature moves ashore...the upper flow pattern will become
southwesterly which will finally allow a resurgence of low/mid-level
moisture north into the Central Plains and Lwr Missouri Vly as main
warm front lifts through the area. Latest models continue to show a
lead shortwave trough approaching Saturday night which should lead to
continued chances for developing shwrs/storms through the day on
Sunday. While this initial activity will be fairly spotty in
nature...a more prolonged rainfall event looks to become better
established by Sunday night as main cold front stalls across the Lwr
Missouri Vly. This boundary combined with increasing height falls
aloft and a continued influx of low-level moisture should allow for
continued shwrs/storms through much of Monday. Considering how dry
things have been in recent weeks...major hydro impacts are not
expected at this time...however trends will be monitored as event
start time nears. Beyond this...main front to slowly slide south
across the region Monday night which should allow dry and slightly
cooler weather to build in for the remainder of the fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Main concern with the 18 UTC TAF package remains sustained northwest
winds of at least 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts this afternoon
at all fcst terminals. Strong winds will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to
relax later on this evening. Pop-up shwrs/storms should largely
remain east of area terminals this afternoon...and VFR conditions
should dominate through the forecast period. Winds will again
increase out of the northwest Friday morning...however sustained
winds and gusts should be weaker than today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
Red flag conditions ongoing across the area this afternoon as a tight
pressure gradient combines with low RH values which are currently
in the mid 20% range per latest observations. Winds will weaken
tonight as high pressure builds into the area...but another afternoon
of elevated fire concerns can be expected on Friday as winds increase
above the 20 mph range once again. Will hold off on any additional
fire weather related headlines for Friday in response to the current
Red Flag Warning...and will allow midshift the opportunity to make
the final decision after 00z model guidance arrives. Rain chances
will increase through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls across the region on Sunday.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-004-
011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-012-020-
021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...32
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Strong jet streak (+130kts) was pushing southeast from the
northern plains into the northern CWA and OH valley region.
Scattered showers/thunder have developed in a band from
northwest/north central MO into central MO in an area of weak
instability and this activity will continue into parts of our
northern CWA this afternoon. Stronger showers may tap into
synoptic scale winds aloft for a few stronger downdrafts, but most
of this activity is expected to remain sub-severe and should be
out of our area by 00z.
Red flag conditions starting to be met this afternoon with
humidity levels starting to dip into the 20s and wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph so far. Haven`t reached wind advisory criteria yet, but
stronger winds should be developing as the afternoon progresses.
Main focus will be with winds/fire weather, freeze potential
Friday night and thunderstorms from Saturday night into Monday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Stronger winds that develop during the afternoon hours should
diminish after 01-02z this evening and red flag conditions will
also diminish by mid evening. Planning on maintaining current
wind advisory/red flag warning for current time frames. Main
upper trough axis will shift east of the area tonight and we
should start to see rising upper heights as ridging begins to
build eastward in from the west. Dry conditions will remain in
place and despite the lower winds expected on Friday, will still
have elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions
during the afternoon Friday. Will hold off on any fire weather
products for Friday at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will see a surface high pressure system build into the area from
the northeast on Friday night/Saturday morning. With a light wind
and dry conditions, should see temperatures dip to below freezing
over parts of the eastern CWA. The current freeze watch has these
areas covered well so do not plan on altering the watch at this
time. Areas of frost will be possible outside of the freeze watch
further to the west, where temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 30s.
As the high departs to the east on Saturday, the pressure gradient
will strengthen between the departing high and a low developing in
the high plains region. Breezy to windy conditions are again
expected Saturday afternoon.
Will start to see Gulf moisture increasing Saturday night into
Sunday and may start to see some showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop within that warm advection pattern.
Instability should increase a bit late Sunday night into Monday as
surface dew points rise back into the 50s to possibly low 60s and
a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Models are suggesting a
decent rain maker from late Sunday into Monday night. Not overly
sold on severe weather chances as instability looks to be on the
lower side, but we are looking at one to two inches of rainfall.
Looks to be dry for the remainder of the period with close to
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
The forecast was very interesting and challenging for today. The
mid and upper level pattern will feature an increasingly cyclonic
flow as short wave energy drops southeast across the Corn Belt. We
are expecting a general band of weak convection to develop
associated with the short wave energy from central Iowa through
eastern Missouri this afternoon. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central Missouri. We elected to keep thunder out of
the forecast for now as MLCAPE values will be a bit marginal.
The bigger concerns for today will be both wind and fire weather.
We have updated the fire weather section below. As for the winds,
low level pressure gradients will remain tight today. Thus,
sustained northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will again
occur. Of more importance is the abnormally high mixing that will
take place today. We will mix above 700 mb this afternoon and may
very well push 600 mb in some places. This opens the door to very
good momentum transfer (wind gust) potential. Using 750 mb as a
low-end proxy, we are seeing good potential for wind gusts of
40-50 mph this afternoon over most areas. It is actually feasible
that any shower activity could help gust potential across central
MO (evaporative cooling). A Wind Advisory has therefore been
posted for all but far southwestern Missouri.
We have once again gone on the high side of guidance for high
temperatures as mixing should largely offset weak cold air
advection. Highs should range from the lower 60s around Rolla to
the lower 70s along the I-49 corridor.
Winds will then diminish this evening with dry weather expected
tonight. The diminishing winds should allow low temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s area wide.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Friday will once again be breezy with good wind gust potential due
to high mixing heights. High temperatures were a tough call given
that advection will switch from cold to warm throughout the day.
We should therefore see a good gradient with highs ranging from
the middle or upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to
upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.
Friday night then continues to look chilly as high pressure slides
southeast into northern Missouri. After collaboration with our
eastern neighbors, confidence was high enough to post a Freeze
Watch for portions of central and eastern Missouri. Even outside
of the watch, there will at least be some frost potential.
Global models then continue to advertise a quick-moving short wave
trough shearing across the area from later Saturday into early
Sunday. While moisture looks limited, enough lift may be present
for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
A much better chance for precipitation then exists as we get into
the Sunday night into Monday night time frame as a stronger upper
level short wave trough moves across the region. We should see a
good warming trend ahead of that approaching wave late this
weekend. Dry and slightly cooler weather should then return to
the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR sky/visibilities are expected through the period. The main
highlight will be the wind aspect of the forecast.
Northwesterly surface winds are forecast to gradually increase
this afternoon during peak heating. Higher gusts are forecast for
the SGF terminal, however, JLN/BBG will not be far behind. As the
sunsets, surface winds will begin to subside. Low level wind
shear is forecast to increase overnight, but should begin to relax
around daybreak on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today...
A very dry air mass will remain in place across the region today.
Afternoon humidities will fall into the 15-25% range. The lowest
readings will likely be south of the Ozark Plateau due to
downslope flow. Meanwhile, sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph
are expected. Very high mixing will lead to strong wind gust
potential with gusts of 40-50 mph expected this afternoon over
many areas. A Red Flag Warning has therefore been posted for all
but a few counties across central Missouri.
Brisk northwest winds are again expected for Friday along with
good gust potential. At this time, it appears as if speeds will be
slightly less than those of today. Meanwhile, afternoon
humidities are expected to fall into the 20-30% range. While no
headlines have been posted for Friday, the current forecast is
very close to critical thresholds. Thus, it is possible that fire
weather headlines may eventually be needed over some areas for
Friday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are then expected to continue
into Saturday as winds turn around to the south.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
066>070-077>082-088>097-101>105.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>092-094>098-106.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-092-098.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Main concerns today are fire weather concern, shower coverage, and
winds. For fire weather details...please see the fire weather
section below.
Even with the surface low moving away from us over the eastern Great
Lakes today, the pressure gradient will be tight over the area. This
will allow for windy conditions over the entire area by late this
morning into the afternoon. The RAP is showing deep mixing upward
to 750mb by this afternoon at KCOU and KFAM which supports gusts
upwards of 45 mph by this afternoon. Because of this, will go with
a wind advisory this afternoon.
Still looks like showers will become likely by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough currently over the Upper Midwest will move
southeastward into Missouri and Illinois. As it does, it will
provide added ascent during the diurnally favorable time of day to
provide more numerous showers over all but central and southeast
Missouri from late morning into the late afternoon hours. RAP is
showing a small amount of CAPE, so can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with perhaps some small hail. This is supported by both
the NAM/GFS and is depicted well on the CAMS.
Do expect quite a few clouds today with the low level cyclonic flow
causing the diurnal driven cumulus. This should help keep
temperatures from climbing too much today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
(Tonight through Saturday)
Main focus during this period is the potential for freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will be issuing a freeze watch for
the entire CWA.
Models continue to be consistent in starting to deamplify the
pattern during this period. We will see some showers that will
dissipate during the early evening hours as the aforementioned
trough moves off to the southeast. Longwave trough will begin to
move off to the east by Friday which bring dry weather for Friday
and Saturday. GFS/NAM are in decent agreement that surface ridge
will move across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will stay below normal with 850mb temperatures in the 0
to -10C range. Still looks like Friday night will be quite cold
with mainly clear skies as well as light winds as the surface ridge
approaches from the west. Will continue to have widespread freezing
temperatures across the area with a hard freeze possible in areas
north of I-70.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Difference in phasing of the upper troughs in the GFS/ECMWF will
determine how quickly a cold front will move across the area early
next week. Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Sunday night into Monday before both models show drier and
cooler weather moving back into the area by the middle of next week
as northwesterly upper flow aloft sets back up over Missouri and
Illinois.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Scattered to numerous showers dropping out of Iowa into northern
Missouri will overspread much of central/eastern MO into western
IL through the afternoon. Seeing a few lightning strikes over
northern Missouri, even some very small hail. For now it looks
like the highest chances for any thunderstorms will be across
north central and central MO. This activity will quickly clear out
toward 7 pm.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers will overspread the area by 2 to 3 PM. Could see
an isolated/brief thunderstorm embedded in this activity. For now,
the better chances for storms may be just west of the airport but
will monitor in case any amendments to add thunder to the TAF are
needed.
Hawblitzel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
Will have an elevated fire danger today over parts of central and
southeast Missouri where there will be a combination of dry
fuels...gusty northwest winds and dry relative humidity. This will
be in a small area to the southwest of where I expected the
showers to be the most numerous. There will be another day of
elevated fire danger on Friday over all south central Illinois. I
do not expect any precipitation on Friday.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington
MO.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Warren MO-
Washington MO.
IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER...REINFORCING SECONDARY FRONTS WILL FOLLOW
LATER TONIGHT... AND AGAIN FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...
REST OF TODAY: COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA... CURRENTLY BISECTING CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE CURRENT PACE AND NEAR
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT
BRUSHED ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN AND SOUTHEAST CWA HAS PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS... ALONG WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS
INCLUDING THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. BUT
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING... WITH A SECONDARY PEAK IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SRN AND ERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A WNW JET CORE OVER TN. MUCH DRIER
AIR HAS ARRIVED AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTIGATED BY
HEATING/MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PERSISTENT
HEIGHT FALLS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING... WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER VERY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 65-72. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY: A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AND 50KT LLJ ARE DRIVING A BAND
OF CONVECTION THROUGH WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE
HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL NC/SC. DESPITE A RAPID
DEWPOINT RECOVERY SINCE 00Z...THERE IS LITTLE ANALYZED INSTABILITY
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200
J/KG OF NEAR SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
AT BEST...WITH SOME MORE APPRECIABLE BUT WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 13Z. RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE SOME SHEARING
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND A RADAR TRENDS TEND TO SUPPORT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING UPPER FORCING. STILL... THE INTENSITY OF
THE LLJ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME 30-40KT GUSTS
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BETTER AIRMASS LATE THIS MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE
THREAT OF A SEVERE STORM...WHILE LOW...WILL ALSO INCREASE. RAINFALL
TOTALS THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
FOR MOST.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND DRYING...WITH MIXING TO AS HIGHS 800MB
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S
EAST. WITHING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SECONDARY VORT LOBE AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING..WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP INVERTED V SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED WIND
GUESTS TO 35-40KT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO STAY IN THE 30-35KT RANGE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 25-
30KT RANGE ELSEWHERE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED STRATOCU
DRIFTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO
THE 40S..IF NOT UPPER 30S INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...
LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRI...WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~20 M/12 HR) LINGERING OVER
SC/SOUTHERN NC. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRI
NIGHT...WITH A CONCENTRATED PRECEDING AREA OF MUCH STRONGER MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (~120 M/12 HR) AND COLD POOL ALOFT (~ MINUS 38 C)
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A CLIPPER-TYPE
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH RAPID
DEEPENING LIKELY AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE WAVES REACH THE NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TRAILING POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS
CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT.
DESPITE SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ON FRI...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
MOISTENING/AROUND 700 MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS...THEN WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR
SURFACE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...IT WILL BE
MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT - IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS IN
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.
DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG CAA AND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH AS THE CENTER OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE OH VALLEY...30-40 KTS OF NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-UPPER 50S.
THE CENTER OF CP HIGH...AROUND 1030 MB BY 12Z SUN...WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH JUST THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1285 METERS AT 12Z SUN SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE 20S --BETWEEN 22 AND 28 DEGREES-- COLDEST IN
OUTLYING WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...AND HIGHEST IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SOME LINGERING NNW STIRRING WILL POSSIBLE IN
A LINGERING LIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM THURSDAY...
THE CENTER OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUN AND OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF A PAIR OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS THAT MAY INTERACT AS THEY APPROACH THE
EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
--INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH(S)...CENTERED
AROUND THE DAY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING... CLOUD DECKS HAVE FINALLY
RISEN TO VFR... AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WITH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS THROUGH FRI... AS OTHER DISTURBANCES SWING
OVER THE REGION AROUND A DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW CENTERED
TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY WITH PERIODIC STRONGER
SURFACE GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONTS DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION... ONE THIS
EVENING AND ANOTHER FRI AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WSW
OR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD... SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE... MAINLY THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRI WITH
THE RESUMPTION OF DEEP MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY VFR VSBYS... HOWEVER THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
ALTERNATING WITH DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGES... ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
BRISK AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS... ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BUT
ANY CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR WITH VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MAY BRING A CHANCE
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/MLM
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...2
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH A FEW SITES PERIODICALLY HITTING 30MPH SUSTAINED.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THAT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY
WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925MB-850MB WINDS SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DECREASING.
PLUS...THE SITES THAT ARE HITTING 30MPH ARE RIGHT AT 30MPH AND NOT
STRONGER...FOR ONLY BRIEF PERIODS.
-SN/-RA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. NOT SEEING MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATION...AND IN FACT MOST ROADS ARE WET ACCORDING TO
WEBCAMS (SFC TEMPS 32F-36F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER NORTHEAST ND
AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
NORTH MAN AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. MAN TROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
FRI. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN.
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO UP IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THE AFTN FOR RANSOM AND SARGENTCOUNTIES.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MAN SAT NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND
EAST ZONES FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
STARTING TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM OF A PATTERN
CHANGE COMING UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE MORE
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWER THREAT IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKS
DRY AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE 00Z GEM/GFS DOES NOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFTING OF CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM
IFR/MVFR TO VFR BY 00Z WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST. LAST WILL
BE BJI WHICH MAY STILL HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY EVENING. WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR FORECAST. VFR CIGS
THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1205 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY NORTH AS WE ARE OBSERVING WINDS GUSTING
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT GARRISON AND AROUND THE BISMARCK/MANDAN
AREAS. OTHER SITES NORTH OF THE ADV HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST AS WELL. OTHER GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKING GOOD SO
ONLY MINIMAL OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AT THE MOMENT AND WHERE I CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE SKY TO REMAIN
CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS. DO NOT
FEEL IT IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
WE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FOSTER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES
AND MOVED UP THE START TIME TO THE CURRENT HOUR FOR THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON THE AWOS/
ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN...WHICH HAVE MET
ADVISORY CRITERIA SINCE ABOUT 11 UTC...AND RAP AND HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-LAYER WINDS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A DOMINANT 300MB JET ALOFT BETWEEN 130KT AND 140KT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (925MB-850 AND 850MB-700MB) STRONGEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER WINDS AROUND 28KT WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 37KT. THUS EXPECTING SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
AREA AND SPREADS IT JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...ALONG AND EAST OF A
A LINE FROM AROUND KENMARE TO NEW SALEM AND FORT YATES UNTIL 17Z-
18Z (NOON TO 1PM CDT). WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING GETTING A
AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...AROUND 13Z-14Z...THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND TRANSITION INTO A FAIRLY DETAILED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED STRIATED CUMULUS FIELD...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ONCE CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED...WHICH RANGE BETWEEN +7C AND +10C (45F TO 50F)...A FEW
POPCORN SHOWERS WITH EITHER VIRGA OR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING
THE GROUND IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS
MOSTLY FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE THAN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES THUS EXPECT MID/UPPER 40S MOST AREAS...TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20-25 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A POCKET OF LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES AROUND
25 PERCENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THIS FOLLOWS THE
CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDDED DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS AT KJMS HIGHLIGHT THE
AVIATION CONCERNS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY BKN MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS COVERING
KMOT/KJMS/KBIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KDIK AND KISN SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF LOW
VFR/MVFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOW CU TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU APR 7 2016
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT IN
SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH TO 25 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ018>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS