Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/06/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

304 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME.
RAP AND NAM INDICATE NEUTRAL AND WEAK NEG QG ASCENT OVER THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE CO/KS STATELINE
SEPARATES SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID SELY FLOW OVER KS FROM DRIER LESS
HUMID S-SWLY FLOW OVER ERN CO. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...POORLY
DEFINED SFC TROUGH LIES JUST EAST OF DENVER. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH BNDRY LAYER WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS
RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS VISIBLE ON SAT IMAGERY NOW REACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THE CWA IS APART OF AN UPPER AIR SYSTEM...ITS AXIS PRESENTLY OVER
WRN IDAHO/ERN NEVADA. QG OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE A NARROW NORTH-
SOUTH RIBBON OF WEAK/MODERATE ASCENT ALIGNED WITH A HEAVY CLOUD
BAND PASSING OVER WRN UTAH. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AT ITS
PRESENT SPEED SHOULD SEE THIS SYNOPTICALLY PRODUCED CLOUD SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE N-CNTRL COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AND NOT LOOK
AFTER THAT THE FORMATION OF FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LOWERING
CONDENSATION LEVEL. MEANWHILE EAST OF THE MTNS...SHOULD ALSO SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A TRANSITION TO SLY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...NAM...GFS AND RAP SHOW MID-LEVEL QG ASCENT INCREASING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. 18Z RUN OF
THE NAM AND RAP NOW INDICATE ONLY LIMITED QPF FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS NOT KICKED BY THEN.
EAST OF THE MTNS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT DEEPENS DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS. THE BUSINESS END OF
THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY PASS OVER THE NRN/CNTRL CO
MTNS SETTING OFF A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER NOTHING YET EAST OF THE MTNS PRIOR TO 18Z.
MODELS SHOW A STAND-UP COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVANCING
TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING THEN OUT ACROSS
NERN CO PLAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW
THIS BNDRY STALLING OUT FOR A TIME ROUGHLY ALONG A JULESBURG TO
LIMON LINE. IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BNDRY LOW CAPES AND SHEAR MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW T-SHOWERS. ANY QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG POST-TROUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO WORK DOWNWARD TO PRODUCE 25-40KT NWLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO KICKS IN SENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. GUSTY W-NWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
OR EVEN PREVENT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE REACHED IN
MOST AREAS BEFORE 19Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL AID IN DRYING EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT WILL HELP TO BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY FOR DENVER. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED GRADIENT PROVIDED
BY THE SURFACE LOW EXITING TO THE SE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO NW COLORADO. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT
LOOSENS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF SOUTHERN CA BY 18Z SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN THAT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS HAS BACKED OFF THE LOW ENTERING
NE COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND DOES NOT CARRY MUCH OF A
PUNCH AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EC PLACE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA AT
PRESENT TIME. OVERNIGHT...SKIES GRADUALLY FILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM UTAH. SHOULD SEE A
DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN SETTING UP BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 12 KTS. ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE STATE
DURING THE DAY AS A STAND-UP COLD FRONT BLOWS EAST ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. EXPECT GUSTY NWLY POST-
FRONTAL WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLE TO 35 KTS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET
AGL LOW ON ON TUESDAY.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BAKER

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

902 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...THE OPEN WATER MARINE SURGE WORKING SWD TOWARD
THE FL EAST COAST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT ONWARD AS IT WORKS
FROM VOLUSIA CO SOUTH TO THE TREASURE CST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN MARINE STRATOCU
...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY PUSH INTO THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS SHOWN BY
LTST HRRR GUID. MIN TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE MORE MILD DUE TO OCEAN
MODIFIED AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...MOSTLY AROUND 60...EXCEPT FOR MID
60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

.AVIATION...
VFR. COASTAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ASCD WITH THE
SWDSURGE AT TEH IMMEDIATE COASTAL AIRPORT LOCATIONS ALONG WITH SOME
SCT SC NR FL 040.

.MARINE...
TIMING OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND INCREASE OVER MARIEN AREA REMAINS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. NO CHANGE TO ADVISORIES THAT ARE IN
PLACE WITH SCA OVER ALL THE WAETRS INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL EASE QUITE QUICKLY ON WED...BUT LINGERING SEAS WILL NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING MUCH OF THE DAY AT LEAST OFFSHORE.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

JP/TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

357 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
206 PM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE ONGOING GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO OHARE TO KANKAKEE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN SOME WET
ROADS. THE HEAVIER ECHOES ARE TRANSIENT GIVEN MARGINAL INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND SUBPAR MOISTURE COLDER THAN -10C. THE MOISTURE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO THIN IN THE COMING HOURS BUT LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF
300-400 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW THE
MOISTURE LAYER TO THIN...BUT ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR
CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL THINNING
OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF CLEARING WILL
DIRECTLY DETERMINE THE COOLING TREND TONIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S...SOME MID TO POSSIBLY LOWER 20S AWAY FROM URBAN
AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD TOMORROW
MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
MAY CARRY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-88 AND WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT BENIGN...AND WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND IN PLACE...THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GOOD...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMD

.LONG TERM...
345 PM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AN OVERALL DECIDEDLY WINTER LIKE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE IN STORE DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING APRIL...RESULTING IN
ACTIVE WEATHER AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVEN PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK THAT MOVED
ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. A VERY STRONG 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW ON THE MODELS BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL SETUP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SECONDARY LEAD WAVE WILL
FOCUS INTO THE NORTHERN/ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE
EVENING WITH POPS TAILORED TOWARD THIS IDEA. VERY INTENSE LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS WELL AS STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND THEN EASTERN
CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION COULD YIELD
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LOW DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB TO THE LOWER 40S AND REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN RISE THEREAFTER WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AFTER HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 50S. TRAILING MIDLEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN BAND OVER THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY BROADBRUSHED WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. PRECIP
RATES WILL BE KEY IN WHETHER FULL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CAN OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

A FEW MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVEN BY IMPRESSIVE
HIGH AMPLITUDE (2014-2015 ESQUE) RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA. THESE DETAILS WILL BE HONED IN OVER THE COMING DAYS. OVER
THE WEEKEND...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AT THIS DISTANCE LOOKS
FAVORABLE BELIEVE IT OR NOT ON MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...BUT HELD WITH CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS BACK ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH RAIN POTENTIAL RETURNING
AND PERHAPS EVEN THUNDER THOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET.

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z TAFS:

- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY REDUCTION
- GUSTY NE WINDS
- MVFR CIGS

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING ORD AND MDW.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AND
ANYTHING LESS THAN 5-6SM WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND UNDER AND MORE
INTENSE ECHOES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSIENT AND LESS 5-10
MINUTES AT A TIME AT MOST. THIS WOULD ALSO LARGELY BE EXPECTED
EAST OF ORD. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AND SHOULD TREND
TOWARD LOWER END VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SUSTAINED 12-14 KT
WINDS BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. A LEADING BAND OF WEAKENING
RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT A LINE FROM RFD TO ORD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

KMD

.MARINE...
254 AM CDT

NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR WINDS
TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW...RAMPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE LOW CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN.
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL DROP JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

18z/1pm surface map shows cold front just south of the Ohio River,
while a 1031mb high builds southward out of Manitoba. Low clouds
associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes continue
to drop southward behind the departing front, with latest visible
satellite imagery showing scattered to broken clouds along/north of
a Macomb to Paris line. HRRR suggests these clouds may develop a
bit further south over the next couple of hours before rapidly
dissipating early this evening. Based on the highly diurnal look to
the clouds on satellite, think clearing will indeed occur quickly
near or just after sunset. Will hang on to a few clouds from
Bloomington to Champaign through mid-evening, then will go mostly
clear across the board for the remainder of the night. Brisk
northerly winds will become east-northeast and decrease to less than
10 mph tonight as Manitoba high builds into the Great Lakes. Thanks
to clearing skies and diminishing winds, overnight low temperatures
will drop into the upper 20s. Current Freeze Warning along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville line will remain in
place with no changes planned at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Fairly active pattern on tap for the upcoming week, with periods of
rain showers and some thunderstorms, breezy conditions at times, and
shots of cold air with potential freezing conditions and even a bit
of snow. Mother Nature can`t seem to decide what season to go with
at the moment.

Deep upper trough currently along the Pacific Northwest coast will
close off an upper low over northern Montana overnight, helping to
intensify an Alberta Clipper which will dive into the Midwest around
mid week. Rather dry layer below 10,000 feet will need to be
overcome before any precip arrives, as high pressure drifting
eastward won`t provide much of a return flow late Tuesday evening.
Have maintained some slight chance PoP`s during the day over the far
north as initial shot of energy tracks across the upper Midwest, but
think main period of rain will be after midnight Tuesday night
through early Wednesday afternoon, once the cold front passes
through. Far southeast CWA may remain dry until early Wednesday
morning, with the cold front still over the northwest part of Illinois
at sunrise. MUCAPE`s of 300-500 J/kg progged over the region, so
will maintain a mention of thunder as well. Wraparound showers
likely to follow as the upper trough passes through Wednesday night.

Next Canadian storm system will be close behind, forming over
northern British Columbia Tuesday and diving into the Midwest by
Thursday morning. Scattered showers will accompany its passage, with
the threat lingering over the eastern CWA into Friday as a strong
northwest flow brings another upper trough/low into the region.
Can`t rule out some snow accompanying the rain as 850 mb
temperatures drop to around -8C. Current indications are that this
system may very well be accompanied by a hard freeze Friday night
with lows in the mid-upper 20s.

Upper pattern over the weekend transitions into more of a split flow
as low pressure drifts in from off the southern California coast,
and another wave tracks along the Canadian border. Some timing
differences between the GFS and ECMWF on how fast the precipitation
returns, but both have at least scattered showers in by Sunday
afternoon. The associated frontal boundary is expected to hang up in
between the split flow Sunday night, lingering into Monday. The
ECMWF is stronger with digging this northern wave, and thus favors a
stronger surface reflection with thunderstorms more likely. Not
going into that full-scale at the moment given it`s still several
days out, but have included a chance of thunder over the southeast
third of the forecast area Monday, with isolated chances elsewhere.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Low clouds are spreading slowly southward early this afternoon,
although the southern periphery of the cloud cover continues to
erode. Based on satellite loops and HRRR forecasts, it appears
ceilings will be likely at the I-74 terminals...while partly to
mostly clear skies persist further south at KSPI and KDEC.
Thickest/lowest clouds are generally from KBMI to KCMI, where MVFR
ceilings will occur for the next couple of hours before rising to
VFR by mid to late afternoon. Diurnal nature of cloud cover is
evident on satellite, so am expecting rapid dissipation toward
sunset. Winds will be northerly at 10 to 15kt with gusts to around
20kt through the afternoon. As high pressure builds into the Great
Lakes, winds will veer to the E/NE and decrease to less than 10kt
tonight, then will continue to veer to the E/SE by Tuesday
morning.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1256 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...1008 AM CDT

DECENT ECHOES ON THE TMKE RADAR WHERE CONVERGENCE IS A BIT BETTER.
WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S AND 850 TEMPERATURES COMING
DOWN TODAY...SOME WEAK LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THEY SHOULD
LARGELY BE MORE FLURRIES AS THE CONVERGENCE SIGNAL IS NOT AS
STRONG ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
MODEST...AND THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE WARMING TODAY
CLOSER TO THE LAKE WITH SOME SMALL RECOVERIES INLAND.

KMD

.SHORT TERM...
307 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT OF THE STUBBORN MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS QUICKLY TURNED NORTH TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTERLY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH. IR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS SHIELD
DRIFTING SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN IL...AS TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE DAYBREAK.

HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK/NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD
LIFT PARCELS INTO THE STRATUS LAYER AND EASILY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAINLY FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST
IL...BUT COULD DRIFT INLAND A WAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE HELD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH P-TYPE
POSSIBLY BEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY DUE TO AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL TROUGH OF -6 TO
-10 DEG C OVERHEAD AND THICK CLOUD SHIELD. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TEMPS ALONG NORTHEAST IL IN THE MID 30S...MEANWHILE INLAND TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 TO PERHAPS THE LOW 40S.

BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PIVOT
EAST...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE SPOTTY CONVERGENCE SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND SHOULD ERODE A PORTION OF THE CLOUD
COVER. THE CHALLENGE MAY BE THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE ARRIVES
OVERHEAD THE MIXING AND EROSION OF THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE
MINIMIZED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. IT
DOES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CLOUDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY RADIATE INTO THE UPR
20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
307 AM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

LONGWAVE PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF
TUE...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE SHORT LIVED AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROG YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TUE MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD BEGINS TO DRIFT
EAST BY MIDDAY TUE. AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW A STEADY FEED OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION BACK INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AS TEMPS QUICKLY WARM
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA UNTIL CLOSER TO
LATE TUE MORNING...BUT THE MOIST ADVECTION WING ARRIVES LATE TUE
MORNING AND SHOULD SEE STEADY MOISTENING WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING ACROSS THE CWFA BY TUE AFTN.

TUE NGT A COUPLE WEAK SFC FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN PHASE WITH THE STRONGER 500MB VORT MAX. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A MODEST
LLVL NOCTURNAL JET...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUE
NGT THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MILD HEADING INTO WED MORNING. HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S...BUT COULD SEE GENERALLY THE MID 40S AS WE APPROACH TUE
NGT. WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
IL...A FEW BRIEF STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. SO HAVE ADJUSTED
QPF IN THE TUE NGT/WED MORNING PERIOD TO BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES
OF RAIN.

HEADING INTO MID WEEK OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC/NORTHERN IL WED MIDDAY...WITH A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO ARRIVE WED AFTN AND BRING COOLER
AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA WED NGT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL LIKELY PUSH WED HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S
TO PERHAPS THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS ELUDED TO BEHIND THE
FRONT...FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK INTO A NORTHWEST PATTERN WITH RIDGING
BECOMING AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WED NGT INTO THUR.
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE WED WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
ARRIVE THUR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE THEME OF AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRI. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH COULD SUGGEST A
RETURN TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND A RETURN
TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z TAFS:

- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY REDUCTION
- GUSTY NE WINDS
- MVFR CIGS

KMD

.MARINE...
254 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1249 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Breezy and unseasonably cool conditions prevail across central
Illinois this morning. A large area of low clouds associated with
an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes has been sinking slowly
southward across north-central Illinois over the past few hours.
The southern edge of the cloud deck has been eroding since the sun
has risen...and am expecting this trend to continue throughout the
day. HRRR has consistently been pushing the clouds further south
than they actually are, so will trim back its forecast based on
latest satellite loops/obs. End result will be a mostly cloudy day
along and north of a Lacon...to Champaign...to Paris line. Further
south and west, mostly sunny skies will be the rule. Brisk
northerly winds gusting to between 20 and 25 mph will keep
temperatures several degree below normal for this time of year.
Afternoon highs will range from the lower to middle 40s
along/north of I-74...to around 60 degrees far SE near
Lawrenceville.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A band of light showers will continue to move southeast through the
area early this morning, but should have dissipated or have moved
out of the area by 8am. So, to account for the current scattered
showers, will have pre-first period in upcoming forecast. These
light showers are associated with a cold front that is moving
through the area which will cause all winds to go from southwest to
northerly. There will be some wind gusts, but only looking at 20 to
25 mph, even with the FROPA. Once the front/pcpn passes, conditions
will be dry the rest of the day. Clouds associated with the front
will move out, but lower clouds appear to be moving down from the
north. HRRR has the lower clouds getting into northern parts of the
CWA, but then not really into the rest of the CWA. NAM-WRF does have
higher RH getting into the area today and into this afternoon, and
this looks little more reasonable of a forecast. So, took a
compromise between the two models and have some clouds, with most
being in the east. Temps will be below normal again with mid 40s
along I-74 to the mid 50s in the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Colder air mass in place overnight behind the frontal boundary for
Central Illinois. Temperature drop further aided by light winds
under the narrow ridge axis in concert with eroding cloud cover.
Resulting overnight lows in the upper 20s, with a freeze warning in
effect yet again, as some tender and new vegetation has already
started. Breezy southerly winds kick back in on Tuesday in advance
of the next wave bringing the threat of precip for Tuesday night and
into Wednesday. A bit of a question mark for the threat of thunder
on Wednesday, but with the frontal boundary passing through with the
rainfall...at least keeping a scattered mention in there for now,
regardless of the borderline lapse rates. If the more developed sfc
low in the GFS materializes, the low center will be just to the
north and close enough for a thunder mention as well...at least
until the afternoon/evening hours.

Models have become rather consistent with another wave quick on the
heels of the Wed system for Thursday. Placement within the
northwesterly flow is a little diffuse at this point, and the blends
are still coming in with low chance solutions. If this
persists...will likely see the pops for Thursday climb a bit. Wed
night will be a transition...with a potential for a couple of
breaks, before another round of precip on Thursday. So far, the
northwesterly flow established for the end of the week has a series
of smaller waves keeping the forecast wet until Fri night/Saturday
as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region for the
first portion of the weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1013 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
1008 AM CDT

KMD

.SHORT TERM...
307 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
307 AM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LEAVING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND POST FRONTAL MVFR LEVEL STRATUS.
UPSTREAM...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...LIFTING DIURNALLY BACK TO VFR AROUND
MID AFTERNOON AND SCATTERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE MID AND
OCCASIONALLY UPPER 20 KT RANGE...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND DOWN
AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH NEARS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS...THEN BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE BACK ABOVE 10 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.

BMD

.MARINE...
254 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
649 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

MVFR clouds around 1.6kft are advecting into the area from the
northeast and should cover PIA/BMI/CMI at the start of the TAF
period. AC clouds around 10kft are effecting SPI and DEC, but
should see some MVFR clouds in a couple of hours. HRRR model seems
to have a pretty good handle on these clouds and the possible
westward extent of the clouds this morning. Believe, based on HRRR
and sfc wind flow, that MVFR clouds will last longest at BMI and
CMI, and then to a lesser extent at PIA and DEC. Thinking that at
SPI the broken cigs will be TEMPO so have scattered as
predominate. Cig heights should go up as heating occurs and then
scatter out at PIA and DEC during the afternoon. As ridging moves
across the area, northerly winds will be northeast and believe
this will keep clouds over CMI and BMI this evening, with
scattered clouds elsewhere. Then all sites should clear out around
midnight. North winds will be breezy with gusts to 20-22kts during
the day.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

630 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
307 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
307 AM CDT

TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BEACHLER

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

BMD

.MARINE...
254 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
342 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Strong and gusty SW winds will continue a few additional hours
south of KPIA-KBMI. Low level wind shear possible where gustiness
subsides until 09Z as 50 kt WSW flow at 2000 ft AGL. Decreasing
flow aloft will follow a shift toward northerly winds following a
cold frontal passage, eliminating LLWS. This cold front will push
southward by 09Z. Scattered -shra, isold -tsra possible ahead of
the cold front, although chances for thunderstorms at terminals
too low for mention in TAFs at this time. Winds N around 15 kts
are expected from 08-10Z until 00Z. Winds decreasing after 00Z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRECIP COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE
CWA...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR RUNS /WHICH HAD GOOD INITIATION/
UPDATED POPS A BIT TO BETTER PINPOINT MOVEMENT OF RAIN LINE ACROSS
THE CWA. OVERALL...STILL LOOKING AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF COVERAGE. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP
OUT MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER MAIN UPDATE FOR FOR
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. WAA AND SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE PROMOTED WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...SURPASSING MANY OF THE FORECASTED HIGHS. AS SUCH...INCREASED
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO RERAN THE DIURNAL CURVE TO BETTER REFLECT THE INCOMING LINE
OF RAIN AND AFTERNOON COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A NEW SET OF FORECAST ZONES
WAS SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AS WELL AS TO REMOVE ANY
MORNING WORDING. ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. MIXING WAS
ENOUGH TO BRING MOST LOCATIONS UP FROM SOME MID 30 OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ONLY THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAINTAINED THOSE COLD
TEMPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES HAVE STABILIZED AND/OR BEGUN TO
RISE AGAIN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW OF THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS DUE TO VIRGA ACROSS OUR
NORTH. SFC OBS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INVADE THE COAL
FIELDS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. H850 TEMPS FROM -6 TO -10 C WILL
SETTLE IN OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...VERY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT WE MAY SEE A BIT MORE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
VERSUS THE MID 20S WE SAW IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS. LEFT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE
WARNING THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION...WITH A BETTER
MOISTURE SOURCE TO DRAW FROM SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE COLDER RIVER VALLEY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND
BE THROUGH OUR AREA BY SOME TIME THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...SO STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOW TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE NAM IS SHOWING
ENOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ITS FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THUNDER BUT
FEEL THE INSTABILITY IS OVERDONE AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. DECIDED
TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW PER A MORE REASONABLE
GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEVELOPING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING UP A DANGEROUS FREEZE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...PUTTING FRUIT TREES AND SENSITIVE PLANTS IN
DANGER.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LACKING ANY INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. IN FACT...DRY AIR
(MUCH LIKE EVERY SYSTEM IN THE PAST MONTH) MAY EAT AWAY AT
PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND WE MAY NOT END UP
WITH AS MUCH QPF AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. REGARDLESS...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A MEASURABLE RAIN FOR ALL AREAS. BRIEF SUBSIDENCE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER TO
THE AREA THIS SPRING. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PEGGED TO DROP TO AS
LOW AS -10C BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND AIR TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 20S...ON PURE COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BUILD AND CENTER ITSELF OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP AN EVEN COLDER MORNING AS SOME AREAS COULD
SNEAK INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
40...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS HOLD IN. A WARM UP IS ON TAB FOR SUNDAY
AS WE SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE TO 70 BY
MONDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AGAIN.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES.
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS. WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ANY
IMPACTS. SNOW CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY FROM NNW TO SSE
ACROSS EASTERN KY. A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS TRAVERSING
EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...SO CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH RAINS LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIS IMPACTS EITHER. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE A MVFR CLOUD DECK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING...UNTIL ENOUGH DRY AIR IS ABLE TO PULL IN AND SCT OUT ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS. SCT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. W WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY DISSIPATING
IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING WNW AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING. LESSER
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TUESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL WILL
HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

206 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES
TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OR TWO OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIAN REGION.

INITIALLY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH A RIDGE
AXIS TO MOVE FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
SOME FROST AND OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
ANTICIPATED PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER FROM LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LONG
WAVE TROUGHING WILL THEN RULE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE LOOK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT AND ANOTHER
ON FRI EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF
THIS TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FRI EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY AT
ELEVATIONS OF 2000 FEET AND ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. IF THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF CONSENSUS WERE TO
VERIFY...SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MIGHT ALSO OCCUR AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL.

THERE CONTINUES TO SOME VARIABILITY AMONGST THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES...AND
HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE SO HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO COOL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL AND
ALSO TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE MOST RECENT MEX AND ECE MOS
NUMBERS. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RECOVER THIS WEEKEND...WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY
AND IN MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND ONGOING
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS THE COLDEST NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERALL...WITH LOWS LIKELY DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. EVEN WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THERE SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
ALLOW FOR THESE READINGS AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL
AROUND -10C OR COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE THE THREAT FOR
ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ON SAT NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1238 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

JKL VAD WIND PROFILE IS STILL SHOWING A DECENT LLJ WITH 35 TO 45
KTS ONLY 1500 TO 2000 FT ABOVE THE SFC. KEPT SOME LLWS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...UNTIL DIURNAL
HEATING ALLOWS FOR A MORE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME OF
OUR MORE NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IT APPEARS CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.
HOWEVER...CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR THRESHOLDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
USING A COMPARISON/BLEND OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS WITH
SUCH LOW PROBABILITY DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND BECOME MORE GUSTY AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO VEER OUT OF THE WEST...
SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

JKL VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING 45 TO 50 KTS ONLY 1500 TO 2000 FT
ABOVE THE SFC. THUS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LLWS WE ARE ADVERTISING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME. EXPECT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN SEE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME OF OUR MORE NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS.
CEILINGS WILL FALL SOLIDLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...
AND PERHAPS HIGH END IFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. USING A
COMPARISON/BLEND OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS WITH
SUCH LOW PROBABILITY DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND BECOME GUSTY
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO VEER OUT OF THE WEST...
SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
349 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A cold front was moving south across central Missouri and central
Illinois early this morning. A band of clouds and some light showers
accompanied the front. The front will move south across the Lower
Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri this morning, finally exiting the
khop area early this afternoon. The frontal passage still appears
dry in our area, based mainly on the RAP and HRRR models. Radar does
indicate some very weak echoes aloft developing over the Lower
Wabash Valley as of 08z, so a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out.

Following the frontal passage, skies will become sunny this
afternoon. There will be a strong temp gradient along the front.
Highs are forecast to range from the upper 50s north of Interstate
64 to the lower 70s along the Tennessee and Arkansas borders. Of
some concern to fire weather folks is drier air behind the front.
Very dry air aloft will mix down this afternoon, and rh values
should fall as low as the mid 20s in the Ozark foothills. Winds will
be rather gusty, with gusts around 25 mph likely this afternoon.

There will be another freeze tonight, mainly in the same areas as
Saturday night. The Freeze Watch for parts of southwest IN and
southern IL will be upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Low-level winds
are forecast to stay up through the night due to a pressure gradient
south of the 1034 mb Great Lakes surface high. This should limit
frost potential, but patchy frost will be possible. The coldest
readings will be in low-lying rural areas sheltered from the wind.
Urban areas such as kevv may stay above freezing, as indicated by
00z gfs mos. However, most areas in the Freeze Warning should fall
below freezing.

Tuesday will be about the only period with no hazardous weather
concern of any kind. Temperatures will be on the cool side as the
Great Lakes high produces easterly flow across our region. Highs
should be mostly in the 50s.

The next cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday. This
front will be associated with a rather strong 500 mb shortwave
trough. A strong southwest low-level jet of 50 knots or more at 850
mb will develop by Wednesday morning. Depending on the amount of
sunshine and mixing on Wednesday, gradient winds could become strong
at the surface. Based on the Bufkit momentum transfer algorithm, the
00z gfs indicates surface gusts would reach advisory criteria.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely overspread our region
on Wednesday ahead of the front. Instability still looks too weak
for severe weather, although the day 3 outlook from SPC indicates a
marginal risk as far north as the Kentucky state line.

The precipitation will end from the west Wednesday evening, followed
by clearing and cooler conditions overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

The tendency toward an eastern U.S. 500mb trough persists into the
extended portion of the forecast. The ECMWF and other models have
trended toward the more active GFS regarding the northern stream
solution of 500mb troughs progressing SE and carving into the
broader eastern U.S. trough through the end of the week.

The first of these late week systems will move southeast(500mb short
wave and surface low/cold front)keeping a chance of rain in the
forecast through Thursday, and a lesser chance even into Thursday
night and Friday across the NE part of the FA. Another surge of
cooler air will arrive by Thursday night in the wake of yet another
500mb short wave and surface cold front. Will maintain a slight
chance of snow showers in the NE late Thursday night given
temperature and thickness profiles, including min surface temps in
the mid to upper 30s.

The next forecast concern which is of major importance given the
time of year...is frost/freeze concerns Friday night. Particularly
if the GFS solution of the surface high centered over our FA is
realized then frost/freeze concerns will increase. The ECMWF/GFS MOS
numbers respectedly rang from a low of 24/25 at MVN to 31/35 at POF,
so this potential event will have to be watched closely,
especially for the N/NE part of the FA.

Warm advection should begin by Sunday as the surface high moves
east. The ECMWF is most agressive in bringing moisture and possibly
some rain showers into the FA from the west.&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. South
southwest winds 10-15 KTS with a few higher gusts will shift
around to the northwest with the passage of a cold front around
14-18Z.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078.

MO...None.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for INZ081-082-087-
088.

KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...RLS
AVIATION...GM/MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1047 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

FORECAST IS OVERALL ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW. SNOW
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO OCNL LIGHTER SNOW BEHIND THIS BAND. HOURLY
RAP/HRRR AND 00Z NAM SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA WED MORNING AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ND REACHES THE WRN LAKES...EVEN THOUGH LOW
WILL BE OPENING UP. SNOW SHOULDN`T BE AS HVY AS WHAT FALLS TONIGHT.
PLUS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. MAYBE ABLE
TO TACK ON 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TO WHAT FALLS TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LINGERING UPR
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A MEAN RDG OVER THE W. SFC
HI PRES RDG OVER LOWER MI AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/APX
RAOBS ARE BRINGING DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. SLY FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HI AND OFF LK MI...SOME LLVL MSTR
DEPICTED ON THE GRB/APX RAOBS AND LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CWA WITH H85 TEMPS STILL ARND -12C HAVE RESULTED IN
SOME SC OVER THE E HALF. TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUICKLY FM EARLY MRNG
RECORD LOWS AND WELL INTO THE 30S./LO 40S OVER THE WRN CWA UNDER THE
SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES EVEN THOUGH HI
CLDS ARE SPILLING IN FM THE W AHEAD OF A POTENT SHRTWV MOVING E THRU
THE NRN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE CAUSED 00Z-12Z HGT FALLS UP TO 150M
IN MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THE SLY FLOW/WAA BTWN THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO
AND THE HI PRES TO THE SE ARE STRENGTHENING...VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED
BLO H65 ON THE 12Z MPX AND INL RAOBS /H7 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 33C AT
INL/ HAS RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN SO FAR. A BAND
OF GENERALLY LGT PCPN IS MOVING THRU NE MN/NW WI AND NEARING FAR WRN
LK SUP.

FCST FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS...SN AMNTS AND GOING
WINTER WX ADVYS.

LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS THE STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/
SFC LO THAT WL MOVE INTO MN OVERNGT TAPS MOISTER AIR TO THE S AND
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/
SHARPENS UNDER INCRSG UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCRS AND OVERSPREAD UPR MI WSW-ENE.
ALTHOUGH THE PCPN MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME RA AT THE ONSET OVER THE
W...WHERE THE PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE ARND 22Z AT IRONWOOD...DUE TO OBSVD
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS CLOSER TO TIME OF PEAK HEATING...
EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC/NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN SN FOR THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE TNGT. FCST H7-75 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR 3.5 G/KG
SUGGESTS UP TO 3 INCHES OF SN WL FALL DURING THE APPROXIMATELY 6HR
PERIOD OF SHARPEST WAA FORCING...WITH TOTAL SN TNGT UP TO 4-5 INCHES
AS THE SHARPER UPR DVGC/DPVA ARRIVES LATER AND KEEPS THE PCPN GOING
EVEN AFTER THE SHARPER WAA SHIFTS TO THE SE LATE. CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF HINTS AT HEAVIEST PCPN FALLING ACRS MAINLY SW OF A LINE FM
HOUGHTON TO MARQUETTE AND MANISTIQUE. THIS SN WL BE WET AND HEAVY AS
FCST SDNGS SHOW A RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ CENTERED ABOVE 10K FT.

WED... ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PCPN INTENSITY WL BE DIMINISHED
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN WAA FOCUS...PERSISTENT UPR DVGC/
DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
SLIDING TOWARD WI WL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT SN THRU THE MRNG.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV IN THE AFTN AND ARRIVAL OF
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...POPS AND SN INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
FURTHER. THE LINGERING PCPN WL BE MOST PERSISTENT AND STEADY OVER
THE NCENTRAL...WHERE CYC NNE FLOW ARND SFC LO SHIFTING INTO LOWER MI
WL MAINTAIN A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT DESPITE MARGINAL H85
TEMPS NEAR -6C FOR LK ENHANCEMENT. WITH DIMINISHING PCPN INTENSITY
AND INCRSG SUN ANGLE...THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH RA OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE HI TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST ARPCH 40 UNDER DOWNSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE NE
WIND BELTS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S EXITING SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF LATE WED NIGHT AS MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AOB 4KFT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RDGG MOVING IN FROM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WED EVENING FOR MAINLY THE FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MQT AND BARAGA COUNTIES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF
TO FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY FZDZ AS NAM SNDGS SHOW SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
BELOW -10C ISOTHERM. WITH MODELS INDICATING WEAK RDGG MOVING OVER THE
AREA...THU SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW DIURNALLY
AIDED FLURRIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO WHICH MAY BRUSH THE WESTERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY WILL CROSS THE CWA/NORTHERN WI AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE...RISING INVERSIONS...LOWERING
H8 TEMPS...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWY
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT SEVERAL
INCHES OF LES FOR MAINLY THE N TO NE WIND SNOW BELTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS
SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING EXITING EAST FRI EVENING
WITH DEPARTING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE...H8 TEMPS WILL STILL BE LOWERING
TO -18 TO -19C IN PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME. EXPECT THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE INCHES OF FLUFFY LES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR N-NW SNOWBELTS
AS DGZ REMAINS FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LES COMES TO AN END SAT NIGHT AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS BACK SW. MIXED PRECIP FROM WAA
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPPING ESE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE WEST IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO TUE AS 8H TEMPS FALL NEAR -15C. THE COLD AIR AND ASSOC
MIXING/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND
LIGHT LES ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

LOW PRES APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS LINGERING THRU WED
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER LOWER MI LATE IN THE AFTN. WITH THE ONSET OF
THE SNOW...EXPECT A RAPID DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR AS WELL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. STEADIER SNOW SHOULD
LINGER LONGEST AT KSAW...AND WITH THE AID OF UPSLOPING...LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGEST AT THAT TERMINAL. WHILE SNOW
INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY
PREVAIL. AS WIND SWINGS AROUND TO THE NE AND N WED...EXPECT LIFR
CONDITIONS (MAINLY CIGS) TO BECOME THE PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE
MOST PART.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS COULD APPROACH LOW END GALES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE WINDS LOOK TO BE 30 KNOTS OR UNDER FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
013-014-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ001>003-009>012-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

745 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

FCST FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS...SN AMNTS AND GOING
WINTER WX ADVYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ001>003-009>012-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

430 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF OVER
THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
THERE IS A WEAK SHRTWV PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS...AND THE
COMBINATION OF SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME
MOISTENING OFF LK SUP OF VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 12Z YPL RAOB
/PWAT 0.06 INCH/...AND DAYTIME HEATING UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF IS
MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CLDS SOME ISOLD INSTABILITY SN SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE THE MOISTENING OFF THE LK IS MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE LLVL NNE FLOW TO THE SE OF HI PRES OVER MANITOBA.
AS IS COMMON IN THE SPRING WITH INCRSG SUN ANGLE THAT AMPLIFIES
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND...SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR OVER AND
NEAR LK SUP. WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -15C AND THE INSTABILITY SC...TEMPS
THIS AFTN ARE WELL BLO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 20S. BUT SKIES ARE
MOCLR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP OVER NW ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE
DRIER AIR. MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG WERE BLO ZERO AT MANY PLACES IN NW
ONTARIO AND AS LO AS -20F CLOSER TO THE HI CENTER. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE PAC NW CAUSED 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 150M IN THAT AREA.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON CLD/POPS TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTN...MIN TEMPS TNGT AND THEN POPS LATE ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE PAC NW.

LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN
OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVNG WITH LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/MORE ACYC FLOW AS WELL AS VERY DRY
UPSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD BRING CLRG THIS EVNG. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...MAINTAINED FCST MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. RETURN SLY FLOW OVERNT OVER THE
FAR W ON THE WRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES MAY LIMIT THE TEMP FALL IN
THAT AREA A BIT.

TUE...ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OFF MOSUNNY...EXPECT INCRSG CLDS
DOWNSTREAM OF AREA OF DVLPG WAA UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BTWN HI
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE
NRN PLAINS. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY CU/SC DVLPG OVER
ESPECIALLY THE E HALF WITH SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING SLY FLOW OFF
LK MI UNDER LINGERING AREA OF LOWER H85 TEMPS NEAR -12C AT NEWBERRY
AT 18Z. BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PCPN WL ARRIVE
OVER THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER TIMING
GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACCENTUATED BY DOWNSLOPE S WIND OVER
THE W. SINCE AFTN TEMPS WL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 30S/LO 40S OVER THE
W WITH DOWNSLOPE SLY FLOW...THE PTYPE WL BE SN MIXED WITH RA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

ATTENTION IS LARGELY ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC-
850MB LOW MOVES S OF THE AREA. WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE FAR W AND SCENTRAL) TO MOVE
IN LATE TUE...THEN SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN FAR SCENTRAL) IS FORCED
PRIMARILY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE N SIDE
OF THE LOW WED MORNING INTO WED AFTERNOON...WITH UPSLOPE
FORCING/PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO WED NIGHT.
LOOKING FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL EARLY WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN WED MORNING. OVERALL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF WET...HEAVY
SNOW. HAVE STORM TOTAL OF 3-5 INCHES OVER ALL BUT NCENTRAL UPPER MI
WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 6 INCHES. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY AS EVEN THE 6 INCH
AMOUNTS FALL OVER LONGER THAN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THE HEADLINES.

LIGHT N-NE WIND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTS THE FAR WRN CWA. AN UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF LES
WITH IT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18C...BUT DIFFER ON HOW
FAST TO BRING THE COLDER AIR IN. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT WIND
DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CHANGE WHERE THE LES FOCUSES. SHOULD SEE
RAMPED UP LES THU NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. ALSO SHOULD SEE SOME
AREA WIDE SNOWFALL...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH AND TRACK. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND AT LEAST TEMPO VSBYS
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT SAW TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN. OTRW...VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY
HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...S
WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT UNDER
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTEM DIVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE LO MOVES TO THE E OVER LOWER MI ON WED...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE AND REMAIN AS HI AS 25 TO 30 KTS. N WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL ON THU INTO SAT ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF HI PERS BUILDING TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

332 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON CLD/POPS TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTN...MIN TEMPS TNGT AND THEN POPS LATE ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE PAC NW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

AN ACTIVE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. BROAD
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A SHIELD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HAVE DELAYED THE
START OF PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS...OWING TO THE RATHER DRY MID-
LEVELS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE PRECIP. THE SET-UP
SUGGESTS A RATHER RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE PRECIP RATES ONCE THE DRY
LAYER IS OVERCOME. PRECIP LOOKS TO REACH THE FAR WEST CWA AROUND 21Z
TUE...A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE AROUND 00Z WED...AND
NEWBERRY AROUND 03Z WED. A BROAD AREA OF 2-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIXING
WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ISOTHERMAL AT OR VERY NEAR 0C. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MESSY TRAVEL
WED MORNING...WINTER WX ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
CENTRAL CWA.

PRECIP CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WED AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE CWA. AGAIN...PRECIP WILL TRY TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL...BUT WET BULB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C
AS EVEN THE 925 TO 850 HPA LOWS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT BROAD LIFT COMBINED WITH THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM SUPPORT
OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS RISING
INTO THE MID 30S AND INCREASING INSOLATION FROM THE EARLY APRIL
SUN...EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
EVEN AS ADDITIONAL SNOW FALLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TEMPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN LINGERING CYCLONIC
FLOW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING SE FROM WESTERN CANADA MAY BRUSH THE
FAR WEST CWA WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

FRIDAY...COLDER AIR DRAWN IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF LES FOR THE NORTH-WIND SNOW BELTS
AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -15 TO -17C. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT SHALLOW
BUT HIGH SLR LES SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST SATURDAY AS WELL AS
TODAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE LOW 20S
NORTH AND THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A
DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE NOTED BY THE ECMWF...CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN
DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKER RIDGE WITH THE GFS AND
CANADIAN GEM SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT BRINGS LIGHT
WAA PRECIP TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

108 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN A RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPR
TROF OVER ERN CANADA/THE NE STATES. A CLIPPER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU NRN MN. THE DPVA AND INSENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/ AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX IN
SE CANADA OVERCAME SOME INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB AND RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WDSPRD SN OVER UPR MI. THE HEAVIEST SN
UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FELL IN A WNW TO ENE SWATH OVER THE CWA FM THE
KEWEENAW TO ESCANBA AND MANISTIQUE UNDER FAIRLY SHARP BUT SLOPED H75-
65 FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL OR PRES GRADIENT SHOWN ON
THE 285K ISENTROPIC SFC. NEGATIVE EPV IN THE H7-3 LYR AS SHOWN BY
THE 12Z NAM AND RELATED TO FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALLY HIER AMNTS. VERY DRY
AIR NOTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB LIMITED SN TOTALS OVER THE FAR SRN
CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
ARE MOVING NW-SE ACRS THE CWA...SO THE SN IS DIMINISHING NW-SE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID LVL DRYING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING RELATED TO THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS MORE
PRONOUCNED. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS PRESENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
ARCTIC HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C
AT YPL AND -24C AT CHURCHILL IN FAR NRN MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS TO THE
N OF THE LK IS ALSO RATHER DRY...WITH SFC DEWPTS WELL BLO ZERO.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON GOING WINTER WX
ADVYS/SN TOTALS AND THEN TRANSITION TO LK EFFECT SN TNGT INTO MON AS
THE COLDER AIR TO THE N FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS.

LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE PRONOUCNED DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV AND ANOTHER TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY TNGT...EARLIER EXIT OF
THE SHARPER H75-65 FGEN/NEGATIVE EPV BY 00Z AS WELL AS WARMING CLD
TOP TEMPS SUGGEST THE DIMINISING SN TRENDS WL CONTINUE. BUT ALLOWED
THE ADVYS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TO GO TO 00Z AS THIS AREA WL
BE UNDER AXIS OF LINGERING SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME HIER
H85-5 RH ON THE CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. AFTER THE STEADY SN/HIER
POPS EXIT EARLY THIS EVNG...UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL CAUSE THE SYNOPTIC
LIGHT SN TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. AS THIS
NE FLOW DRAGS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C TO -18C AND LINGERING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC EXITS...THE SYNOTPIC PCPN WL TRANSITION TO LES.
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/SOME LLVL CNVGC/INSTABILITY...
INFLUX OF DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

MON...ALTHOUGH CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -18C
RANGE WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES AND THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...ARRVIAL OF SFC HI PRES/ACYC LLVL FLOW
AS WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING WL CAUSE LES TO DIMINISH TO ISOLD SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY LLVL AIR WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF THESE SN SHOWERS. TEMPS WL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE CLDS LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E UNDER MORE
STUBBORN H85 THERMAL TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN NOAM RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL AND
ERN CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
PAC NW WILL BRING PCPN AND A SLIGHT WARM UP INTO THE NRN CONUS FROM
TUE THROUGH WED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SFC RIDGE
MOVE IN AND FRESH SNOWCOVER...EXPECT MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS INLAND. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST...MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 20.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA (300K ISENTROPIC LIFT) BRINGING SNOW INTO THE
WEST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY 06Z/WED.
CONSENSUS QPF IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE BY 12Z/WED WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF WEST SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 10/1.

WED...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNFICANTLY GREATER AS THE GFS/GEM SHOW
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV OVER THE
CWA COMPARED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WHICH DIGS THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITH A WEAKER SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...THERE IS HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WOULD LINGER. THE FCST
MAINTAINS LIKELY POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF...MAINLY JUST LIGHT
SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING S CNTRL
FOR A MIX WITH RAIN.

WED NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C BY 12Z THU WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER GEM/GFS. A TRAILING
CLIPPER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
BUT MAY CLIP THE FAR WEST THU. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL
ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR LES AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE BY 00Z/FRI. ENOUGH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS
TO AROUND -17C THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS FOR LES FAVORED BY
NRLY FLOW.

SAT-SUN...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND CONSISTENCY
LOWER AS THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH. LOWER END (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR WAA
AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION ENHANCES THE SNOW. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RESULTS IN -SHSN DIMINISHING A BIT. -SHSN
WILL BE LIGHTER/LESS FREQUENT AT KIWD/KCMX WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BTWN MVFR AND VFR. WITH HIGH PRES MOVING CLOSER TODAY AND ARRIVING
THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO PREVAILING VFR AT
KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN. AT KSAW...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR PROBABLY WON`T
OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SRLY
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT WITH NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE LOW WED
INTO WED NIGHT. NRLY WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1202 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IMPACT CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW LOOK LIKELY FOR MID WEEK.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

WE HAVE TWEAKED THE WEATHER TYPES A LITTLE THIS EVENING..AND TRIED
TO TIME THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NOT
A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. WE WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING ONCE THE PCPN COMES TO AN
END UP NORTH.

A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR JUST
NORTH OF I-96. THESE ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL MENTION REDUCED IMPACTS AS
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL LOWER MI. THAT SAID...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP AND THE H850
WARM SURGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS
UNDERWHELMING WITH THIS EVENT...COULD SEE ENOUGH WINTRY MIX OR
JUST SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER COINCIDENT WITH FALLING
SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR SOME
POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS TONIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE I WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED
CANCELING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER THE ADVISORY.

COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-96 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER. I DON`T SEE MUCH MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS IN TERMS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW A
NARROW LINE OF MODEST CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS
REGION TONIGHT. I LEFT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WE ARE SQUARELY IN CAA ONCE AGAIN AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE HURON FOR A TIME. IF WINDS ARE CLOSER
TO DUE NORTH THEN THIS WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NEAR/SOUTH OF I-96. NORTH OF THERE...TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT
SUN APR 3 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-96.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR PCPN TO FALL AS ALL
SNOW THAT AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
RELATIVELY HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT RANGE ARE MOST PROBABLE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MKG TO ALMA.

PCPN WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME LIGHTER MIXED PCPN MAY LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FCST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

DECENT CERTAINTY FOR IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06-07Z. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CIGS
WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z. TIMING ON THIS IS FAR LESS CERTAIN...BUT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO VFR IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z. HAVE ADVERTISED
VCSH AFTER 17Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX AT THE MKG GRR AND LAN
TERMINALS WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FARTHER SOUTH AT AZO BTL AND
JXN.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

SCA CONTINUES THROUGH LATER MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES. THE CHOPPIEST
CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT OUT ON THE
LAKE AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE
RAPIDS. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THOUGH
LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL... MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844-845.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846-847.

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
855 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Forecast on track with only minor adjustments made, with respect
to timing and temp trends. Latest trends are showing a slight
slowing down in onset of the pcpn later tonight, but the main
forecast highlights remain intact, and temperatures should
continue to stall out as clouds thicken and southerly winds remain
moderately strong and gusty.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Strengthening low pressure over the Great Plains will move east
dragging a cold front along with it. All models are in good
agreement that an area of precip with embedded thunderstorms will
develop later this afternoon into the evening over Kansas and
Nebraska and move east ahead of the front. The weakening broken
line of showers and thunderstorms will move into our CWFA after
midnight and continue moving east through Wednesday. Looks like
rain should come to an end from west to east from late morning
through the afternoon. Wind will continue to increase this evening
and likely remain gusty through the night and into
Wednesday...though it looks like we`ll avoid a wind advisory this
time. I stuck pretty close to ensemble guidance temperatures for
tonight and Wednesday as there are some differences between
traditional MAV and MET MOS due timing of the FROPA.

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night - Next Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Initial cold front will be well southeast of the CWA by tomorrow
night. However... fast northwest flow aloft will bring another
disturbance and associated cold front into the northwestern CWA
late tomorrow night. This front may be accompanied by a few
isolated showers as well. Temperatures tomorrow night will be near
to slightly above normal due to anticipated cloud cover and winds
staying up in the 10-kt range.

Another disturbance embedded within northwest flow aloft will come through during
the day on Thursday. This disturbance is coming through at a better time in the diurnal
cycle with a chance of instability showers existing particularly for areas along and east
of the Mississippi River.

Still anticipating a very cold airmass for early/mid April standards to affect the region
on Friday and Saturday. Latest ECMWF has 850-hPa temperatures dropping to between -5 and -12C
across the mid-Mississippi Valley area or 1.5-2.5 standard deviations below normal.
Expect high temperatures to be slightly below normal on Friday and well below normal
for Saturday. Highs on Saturday for much of the area will struggle to climb toward
the 50 degree mark...even in the absence of cloud cover. Low temperatures are a bit
trickier and the timing of the sfc ridge is crucial. Coldest night right now is
Friday night/Saturday morning and a freeze appears increasingly likely for the whole
area. How hard of a freeze is the question...but low to mid 20s not out of the question
depending on the timing of the sfc ridge. These kinds of temperatures if they come to
fruition would obviously have large impacts on area crops.

Flow aloft will transition from northwest to zonal by Sunday. Expect moderating
temperatures with an increased threat for showers in the Sunday through next
Monday timeframe. A few thunderstorms area also possible on Sunday night and Monday
due to some instability aloft.

GFS/ECMWF models differ on the details behind the Sunday/Monday system. Both
agree that a return to cooler than normal temperatures appear likely but how
cold is the question. ECMWF dropps 850-hPa temps well below zero while GFS
is quite a bit warmer.

Gosselin

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Gusty southeast to south winds to persist ahead of cold front.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected, though could see brief dip
down to MVFR with onset of showers and some thunderstorms with
frontal passage. Winds to veer to the west with frontal passage
and briefly calm down losing gustiness during the mid morning
hours on Wednesday. Then gusty winds to mix down to surface once
again by Wednesday afternoon with gusts near 30kts at times.

Another issue may have to deal with tonight is low level wind
shear if winds decouple. Kept mention out for now, but will keep
eye out on condititions.

Specifics for KSTL:
Gusty southeast to south winds to persist ahead of cold front.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected, though will see brief dip
down to MVFR with onset of showers and some thunderstorms with
frontal passage. Winds to veer to the southwest to west with
frontal passage and briefly calm down losing gustiness by 14z
Wednesday. Then gusty winds to mix down to surface once again by
18z Wednesday with gusts near 30kts at times.

Another issue may have to deal with tonight is low level wind
shear if winds decouple. Kept mention out for now, but will keep
eye out on condititions.

Byrd

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
743 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night - Next Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Another issue may have to deal with tonight is low level wind
shear if winds decouple. Kept mention out for now, but will keep
eye out on condititions.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Tonight:

Several concerns for the evening and overnight period. Primary one
is the risk for strong convection over northwest MO/extreme
northeast KS this evening. Per water vapor imagery a fairly tight
mid level circulation shows up entering the northwest corner of ND
with a pronounced shortwave trough extending ssw through southeast
WY. While this feature will translate southeast this evening and
deepen the models do show a h7 vorticity lobe lifting northeast
across NE/KS prior to the arrival of the Northern High Plains
feature. While low level moisture is currently rather skimpy am
expecting a rather impressive h8 jet, increasing to 65kts over the
CWA this evening, to transport sufficient moisture into a cold front
advancing southeast through the Central Plains to initiate
convection along and just behind the front. However, a proximity
ACARS sounding at MCI at 2029z continued to show the presence of a
pronounced inversion. So, convection looks like it will be delayed
at least a few more hours, especially given the thick cirrus deck
overspreading the region. While instability will be lacking, less
than 1000 J/kg through sunset, the above noted 65kt low level jet
and the expected steep lapse rates (mid/late afternoon inverted vee
sounding) may allow for borderline severe winds to translate to the
surface through the early evening hours. Once convection initiates
expect to see convection fill along and north of the front with the
activity marching across the CWA during the night. Given the lack of
deep moisture think NAM/SREF precipitable water amounts look too
high this evening and prefer the "drier" GFS. That being said some
training along the front as well as post frontal
secondary/elevated convection could result in local amounts
exceeding an inch over northern MO.

Very strong and gusty southeasterly winds will continue through the
evening hours with near advisory criteria winds over parts of west
central MO and east central KS.

Wednesday - Friday:

Northwest flow aloft and a several embedded and fast moving impulses
will bring considerable cloud cover and a chance of isolated/light
afternoon showers/sprinkles to the northeastern CWA Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition, strong and gusty northwesterly winds expected
due to a tight pressure gradient and steep lapse rates. Friday looks
dry as the impulses will have moved to the east of the region.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages during the period.

Saturday - Tuesday:

A surge of cold Canadian high pressure will push south into and
through the CWA on Saturday likely resulting in sub-freezing
temperatures in the morning for most areas with highs not
making it out of the 50s.

Thereafter this period looks quite unsettled beginning Saturday
night. Warm air advection coupled with a shortwave trough moving
east through the Central Rockies will result in several periods of
convection through Monday. A cold front will also enter the picture
Sunday night or Monday and enhance the rain potential.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Main concern heading into tonight will be developing storms after the
02z time frame for all terminals. Upstream radar trends showing
developing storms over north-central KS this evening...with initial
area of light echos now showing up across far northwest Missouri.
Expect this line to gradually fill in between 01-02z before steadily
moving southeast over area TAF sites. Considering dry low-level
conditions...band of shwrs/storms should be met with MVFR vsbys for
the most part...although a brief reductions to IFR will be possible
under the heaviest activity (likely up at STJ and MCI).
Otherwise...low cigs dropping down to 2500 ft also appear possible
with the heaviest activity. Lingering shwrs likely to come to an end
by 08z with a brief clearing likely through early morning before more
significant stratus works in after 12z. For now this second batch of
clouds appears to remain above VFR thresholds...but later fcsts will
address in more detail after the 00z model guidance arrives.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Tonight:

Very strong and gusty southeasterly winds will continue through the
evening hours with near advisory criteria winds over parts of west
central MO and east central KS.

Wednesday - Friday:

Saturday - Tuesday:

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Gusty south surface winds will continue this afternoon and
evening as a tight pressure gradient continues ahead of a
developing surface low over Western Kansas. Winds will actually
become stronger as the evening goes on as that surface low tracks
northeast toward Iowa. Going wind gusts are below wind advisory
criteria however a few gusts to 40mph are quite possible. A short
fused wind advisory is possible. A strong shortwave trough
stretching from North Dakota to Wyoming will shift east southeast
tonight and be the driver for our weather overnight. Elevated to
locally significant fire weather will continue on a daily basis
and see fire weather section for more info.

An area of showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening
across Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and will be
mostly tied to the approaching cold front as most of our area will
be strongly capped as a strong elevated mixed layer will be
present. While the wind profile ahead of this system is favorable
for organized thunderstorms, moisture remains the limiting factor
with this system. Water vapor imagery does show some Pacific
moisture streaming northeast, however gulf moisture will be
lacking. NAM and GFS both want to bring in 55 dews into the area
tonight however this just looks unlikely as they were analyzed
5-10 deg too high all morning. Therefore with only upper 40s dews
expected, MU capes will only range from 50-250 j/kg. Therefore
while a strong thunderstorm is possible across our far NW,
confidence is fairly high that severe thunderstorms will not occur
tonight.

High res models are fairly consistent in the best timing for this
activity between midnight 6am for the western half then
translating eastward through the rest of the area during the
morning hours. Likely exiting the area by midday. Rainfall amounts
look pretty light with this system.

Winds behind the cold front will be strong out of the northwest
gusting over 30mph most of the afternoon. This will make for a
blustery Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Northwest flow continues from Thursday through Saturday. This will
lead to seasonable and dry conditions. One final punch of cold
air arrives Friday with lows Saturday morning in the lower 30s. A
frost or freeze is possible, especially across the northeast half
of the CWA. Cold air advection on Saturday will likely lead to a
cooler than normal day and cut highs back a few degrees.

Changes in the overall pattern take place from Sunday through
early next week as the flow becomes west to southwest and
shortwaves begin to move in on a daily basis. An unsettled stretch
looks likely with several chances for measurable precipitation
beginning Sunday. This will hopefully pan out as the region is
somewhat dry for the time of year.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with strong gusty winds this evening. Wind gusts could
approach 40 to 45 mph in Joplin, where a Wind Advisory has been
posted. Speeds will not be as strong in Springfield or Branson.

Pilots may also want to pay attention to radar late tonight and
into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
impact the region. Many areas may escape these storms as they will
be hit and miss in nature. If a storm directly impacts an
airfield, expect flight conditions to temporarily go down to MVFR
or IFR.

A cold front will be approaching the region from the west tonight,
bringing a wind shift to the area. Look for gusty west northwest
winds through the day Wednesday.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions expected the rest of the
afternoon. Low level moisture was slow to increase and winds were
increasing ahead of the surface low.

Winds will then shift to the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning behind a passing cold front...with winds becoming gusty in
the afternoon. A drier air mass will also advect into the region
Wednesday afternoon and will result in elevated to locally significant
fire weather conditions. The best chance of significant fire
weather will be across SE Kansas and far SW Missouri as RH values
will be lower there.

Thursday is the day where critical fire weather concerns will be
most widespread. Winds will again be brisk and gusty out of the
northwest as another front passes through the region. Thursday
also looks like a high mixing day which will result in strong
afternoon wind gusts. Dewpoints by the models may also be too
high. If current expectations hold, fire weather headlines would
be likely for Thursday.

At this time, winds appear as if they will be slightly lighter on
Friday out of the northwest. However, humidities will still be
rather low. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are expected
for much of the area Friday afternoon.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066-067-
077-078-088.

KS...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Winds behind the cold front will be strong out of the northwest
gusting over 30mph most of the afternoon. This will make for a
blustery Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

A cold front will be approaching the region from the west tonight,
bringing a wind shift to the area. Look for gusty west northwest
winds through the day Wednesday.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions expected the rest of the
afternoon. Low level moisture was slow to increase and winds were
increasing ahead of the surface low.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066-067-
077-078-088.

KS...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Tonight:

Very strong and gusty southeasterly winds will continue through the
evening hours with near advisory criteria winds over parts of west
central MO and east central KS.

Wednesday - Friday:

Saturday - Tuesday:

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Gusty southeast winds will continue through the remainder of the
daylight hours, as will broken to overcast ceilings based above 10
kft. Thunderstorms are still expected to develop northwest of the
terminals around 00z, and will translate southeast with time,
impacting all TAF sites between 03z and 09z. Briefly reduced
visibilities and ceilings are expected with these storms, then winds
will veer to the northwest behind the storms and their associated
cold front, and ceilings will return to around 10 kft.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Tonight:

Very strong and gusty southeasterly winds will continue through the
evening hours with near advisory criteria winds over parts of west
central MO and east central KS.

Wednesday - Friday:

Saturday - Tuesday:

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
350 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night - Next Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Gosselin

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

VFR flight conditions will prevail at least through the evening
and into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday across the area. Wind
will increase in speed and become gusty this afternoon/evening as
well as veer to a southerly direction ahead of an approaching cold
front. There`s some concern about low level wind shear
tonight...however guidance is indicating that the low levels will
stay fairly well mixed and gusts never really diminish. There is
some directional shear...but not sure if it`s enough to justify
mention of wind shear in the TAFs. Will need to continue to watch
this closely as more data becomes available for possible updates
later this afternoon/evening. Cold front will move through the
area with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning. MVFR and
possibly IFR conditions will accompany the heavier storms.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail into Wednesday
morning. Wind will increase in speed and become gusty this
afternoon/evening as well as veer to a southerly direction ahead
of an approaching cold front. Low level wind shear is possible,
but since the wind is expected to stay gusty I`m not sure if it`s
enough to justify mention in the terminal forecast. Will need to
continue to watch this closely as more data becomes available for
possible updates later this afternoon/evening. Cold front will
move through the area with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
morning. MVFR and possibly IFR conditions will accompany the
heavier storms.

Carney

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 50 63 44 64 / 20 80 10 30
Quincy 50 59 38 57 / 80 70 10 50
Columbia 52 62 40 64 / 80 60 5 20
Jefferson City 54 63 41 64 / 70 60 5 20
Salem 46 62 42 58 / 10 80 20 50
Farmington 49 63 42 64 / 10 80 5 20

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
329 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains
temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning.

The sky will remain largely cloud free tonight with winds becoming
light across the region as the ridge builds into the area. With a
fairly good radiational cooling setup, have temps aob the coolest
guidance. Because of this, have expanded the Freeze Warning into
west central IL and further S into srn IL. The warning may need to
be expanded further SW, but confidence is not high enuf to do so
attm. Cooler pockets may manifest themselves overnight, especially
across the ern Ozarks. Areas further W into central MO shud stay
warmer as winds shud remain a little higher across this area.

Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to
remain N and NW of the CWA tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

(Wednesday Night - Next Tuesday)

Initial cold front will be well southeast of the CWA by tomorrow
night. However...fast northwest flow aloft will bring another
disturbance and associated cold front into the northwestern CWA
late tomorrow night. This front may be accompanied by a few
isolated showers as well. Temperatures tomorrow night will be near
to slightly above normal due to anticipated cloud cover and winds
staying up in the 10-kt range.

Another disturbance embedded within northwest flow aloft will come
through during the day on Thursday. This disturbance is coming
through at a better time in the diurnal cycle with a chance of
instability showers existing particularly for areas along and east
of the Mississippi River.

Still anticipating a very cold airmass for early/mid April standards
to affect the region on Friday and Saturday. Latest ECMWF has
850-hPa temperatures dropping to between -5 and -12C across the
mid-Mississippi Valley area or 1.5-2.5 standard deviations below
normal. Expect high temperatures to be slightly below normal on
Friday and well below normal for Saturday. Highs on Saturday for
much of the area will struggle to climb toward the 50 degree
mark...even in the absence of cloud cover. Low temperatures are a
bit trickier and the timing of the sfc ridge is crucial. Coldest
night right now is Friday night/Saturday morning and a freeze
appears increasingly likely for the whole area. How hard of a
freeze is the question...but low to mid 20s not out of the
question depending on the timing of the sfc ridge. These kinds of
temperatures if they come to fruition would obviously have large
impacts on area crops.

Flow aloft will transition from northwest to zonal by Sunday. Expect
moderating temperatures with an increased threat for showers in
the Sunday through next Monday timeframe. A few thunderstorms area
also possible on Sunday night and Monday due to some instability
aloft.

GFS/ECMWF models differ on the details behind the Sunday/Monday
system. Both agree that a return to cooler than normal
temperatures appear likely but how cold is the question. ECMWF
dropps 850-hPa temps well below zero while GFS is quite a bit
warmer.

Gosselin

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
307 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Winds behind the cold front will be strong out of the northwest
gusting over 30mph most of the afternoon. This will make for a
blustery Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Changes in the overall pattern take place from Sunday through
early next week as the flow becomes west to southwest and
shortwaves begin to move in on a daily basis. An unsettled stretch
looks likely with several chances for measurable precipitation
begnning Sunday. This will hopefully pan out as the region is
somewhat dry for the time of year.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Gusty southeasterly winds will
occur this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will
become more southerly this evening and remain gusty. Winds will
likely be strongest late this afternoon into early this evening.

A strong low level jet will also develop across the region and
result in low level wind shear concerns this evening and tonight.

The cold will push through the area early Wednesday morning with
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible under any
thunderstorm but will quickly recover.

Behind the front winds will become northwesterly and again be on
the gusty side late Wednesday morning.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions expected the rest of the
afternoon. Low level moisture was slow to increase and winds were
increasing ahead of the surface low.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise
FIRE WEATHER...Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
101 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Will continue with the freeze warning over west central and south
central IL through 8 am this morning. Temperatures are already
near near or below freezing, and should continue falling given the
light winds and clear skies.

Will keep a slight chance of showers going over northeast Missouri
into west central Illinois today. Low level ridge currently
extending from eastern Kansas northward into western Iowa will move
eastward across Missouri this morning and early this afternoon. This
will allow low level moisture convergence that is currently
producing light showers over western Iowa to move eastward on the
nose of a 50kt low level jet. This is supported well by the
reflectivity in the CAMS.

Temperatures will stay below normal today because of the cool start,
the increasing clouds, and the cool southeasterly wind. MOS highs
which are mainly in the 50s still look good.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

(Tonight through Thursday)

Upper low which is currently over the northern Rockies will still
open up and drop southeastward over the next 48 hours. Its
attendant cold front still looks on track to pass through the area
on Wednesday. Will continue to increase with coverage of showers
and thunderstorms tonight from northwest to southeast, and will keep
with mention of thunderstorms until the front moves through tomorrow.
This first trough will move off to the east by Wednesday evening
before the next shortwave trough will move southeastward into the
area on Thursday in northwesterly flow aloft. This shortwave will
produce enough ascent to keep a chance of showers going Thursday
and Thursday night.

Temperatures will get closer to normal on Wednesday ahead of the
cold front as warmer air moves into the area. Then colder air
will begin to move into the area on Thursday as northwesterly flow
sets up behind the first trough.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS/ECMWF shows that the pattern will be highly amplified on Friday
with deep upper trough over eastern CONUS and a sharp ridge over the
west. Pattern will become more zonal by Sunday as the trough moves
off the east and the ridge weakens and moves east. This should
allow for a gradual warm up over the weekend as 850mb temperatures
go from -5C on Friday to near +10C on Sunday. Also should see an
increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms by early next
week as both the GFS/ECMWF show moisture return from Gulf ahead of
storm system.

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
101 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Temperatures will stay below normal today because of the cool start,
the increasing clouds, and the cool southeasterly wind. MOS highs
which are mainly in the 50s still look good.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

(Tonight through Thursday)

(Friday through Monday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Tranquil weather conditions were being observed this morning
thanks to upper level short wave ridging and surface high pressure
passing to our northeast. Meanwhile, surface low pressure was
beginning to develop this morning across the central High Plains
as digging upper level energy crossed the northern Rockies. This
low will deepen throughout the day which will once again result in
increasing south winds across the Ozarks. Winds by late this
afternoon and early this evening may not be all that far from Wind
Advisory criteria across extreme southeastern Kansas and parts of
western Missouri.

We are expecting quite a range in high temperatures today as warm
air advection really kicks in out west. Highs along and west of
the I-49 corridor should reach the middle 70s with temperatures
across the eastern Ozarks peaking in the lower to middle 60s.
Despite some return of low level moisture starting later today,
fire weather concerns will once again be present. A Fire Weather
Discussion has been included below for fire weather concerns today
and throughout the rest of the work week.

That digging short wave energy will then dive into the Corn Belt
region from late this evening into the overnight period. We
eventually expect convection to break out ahead of the wave along
or slightly behind a surface cold front either late this afternoon
or early this evening from southeastern Nebraska into central and
then southwestern Kansas. This convection will encounter an
increasingly hostile environment as it approaches the Ozarks
later tonight as instability will be rather marginal. At this
point, we are expecting a band of scattered to numerous showers
with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms to sweep
southeast across the area from later tonight into Wednesday
morning. No severe storms are expected due to the lack of
instability. We went on the warm side for overnight lows with that
frontal passage not expected until late tonight or early Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Brisk and gusty northwest winds will develop behind that passing
cold front with dry weather expected over most areas by Wednesday
afternoon. High temperatures will be tricky on Wednesday as cold
air advection will not be all that impressive. We have therefore
gone on the high side of temperature guidance.

Another cold front will then move through the area on Thursday as
short wave energy passes to our northeast. Any threat of
precipitation is expected to remain northeast of the area. Brisk
and gusty northwest winds are again expected behind this front but
cold air advection will initially be weak. High temperatures on
Thursday therefore look rather mild with highs in the middle to
upper 60s. While Thursday night looks chilly, we may then see
another frost/freeze as we get into Friday night as surface high
pressure is progged by models to drift across the region.

Cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft should finally begin to lose its
grip on the Ozarks by later this weekend with southerly winds
returning. Dry weather will continue to end the week as synoptic
scale lift and moisture remains largely absent. There is then an
increasing signal for precipitation as we get into early next week
as the upper level flow turns southwesterly.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

A strong low level jet will also develop across the region and
result in low level wind shear concerns this evening and tonight.

Behind the front winds will become northwesterly and again be on
the gusty side late Wednesday morning.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will persist for
much of the week due to brisk winds and low afternoon humidities.

Today will feature increasing southerly winds with afternoon gusts
over 30 mph expected across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. While low level moisture will begin to
increase, we are still expecting elevated fire weather conditions
over portions of the area.

Winds will then shift to the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning behind a passing cold front...with winds becoming gusty in
the afternoon. A drier air mass will also advect into the region
Wednesday afternoon and will result in elevated to significant
fire weather conditions. Fire Weather headlines could be required
for parts of the area...especially if humidities are slightly
lower than currently expected.

At this time, Thursday is the day where fire weather concerns are
the greatest. Winds will again be brisk and gusty out of the
northwest as another front passes through the region. Thursday
also looks like a high mixing day which will result in strong
afternoon wind gusts. If current expectations hold, fire weather
headlines appear increasingly likely for Thursday.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

A strong low level jet will also develop across the region and
result in low level wind shear concerns this evening and tonight.

Behind the front winds will become northwesterly and again be on
the gusty side late Wednesday morning.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will persist for
much of the week due to brisk winds and low afternoon humidities.

Winds will then shift to the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning behind a passing cold front...with winds becoming gusty in
the afternoon. A drier air mass will also advect into the region
Wednesday afternoon and will result in elevated to significant
fire weather conditions. Fire Weather headlines could be required
for parts of the area...especially if humidities are slightly
lower than currently expected.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Short Term (Today through Thursday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for isolated
severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. However, this
morning, a weak shortwave is moving through eastern Nebraska and
northeastern Kansas. This is providing for a few showers now
crossing into western Iowa this morning. There are a few returns
across extreme southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas that
are attempting to move into northern Missouri however these returns
are around 10kft and will have to overcome dry air near the surface.
There will however be a few chance for showers across the northern
CWA during the day. The main feature of interest however is a short
upper level shortwave moving through Montana this morning. This
shortwave will move out into the Dakotas today forcing a cold front
into eastern Kansas by 00Z this evening. Modest moisture will stream
into the area ahead of the front under strong WAA. Winds today will
be very breezy out of south as the pressure gradient tightens across
the area in response to a deepening low over north central Kansas.
This will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 70 across the
western CWA. Convergence along the front will increase this evening
and thunderstorms will develop across southeastern Nebraska and
northeastern Kansas. There is some potential for a few isolated
storms to become severe with modest CAPE in the 400-800J/kg range
however limiting factors will be weak shear, as well as weak lapse
rates. However, a 50-60kt southwesterly LLJ noses into the area as
the cold front approaches and may enhance storms. The main threat
with any storm would be the potential for damaging winds however, an
isolated storm capable of large hail cannot be ruled out. Any severe
threat should be short lived as any modest instability in place
should quickly wane after sunset. Thunderstorm chances however will
still continue through the overnight hours as the cold front pushes
through the CWA. By Wednesday the upper level shortwave will be
moving across Minnesota/Iowa. A vort lobe rotating around the back
side of the trough will bring a slight chance for showers across the
eastern CWA. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday under strong
northwest winds with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Thursday
another shortwave will drop through the Upper Midwest forcing a
weak cold front through the area. There is the chance for showers
across the eastern CWA despite the lack of moisture. Highs Thursday
will again be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Extended range (Friday - Monday):

The extended range will begin on the cool side as the area reside
under strong northwest flow on the back side of a departing
shortwave trough. Modest CAA will also exist at the surface keeping
highs in the 50s to near 60. High pressure will build into the
region Friday night providing for good radiational cooling. Freezing
conditions will be likely over at least a portion of the forecast
area. This will need to be monitored in future updates. Saturday
will again be cool after the cold start under continued northwest
flow aloft. Expect highs again in the 50s to near 60. WAA returns to
the area Saturday night as upper level ridging build into the area.
A few weak shortwaves will bring slight chances of showers to the
area Sunday. However, model suggest that on Sunday night/Monday a
stronger shortwave will move through the region bringing more
organized convection to the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Short Term (Today through Thursday night):

Extended range (Friday - Monday):

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
711 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Temperatures will stay below normal today because of the cool start,
the increasing clouds, and the cool southeasterly wind. MOS highs
which are mainly in the 50s still look good.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

(Tonight through Thursday)

(Friday through Monday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Isolated rain showers are possible this
morning near the terminals (especially KUIN), but the chances of
rain at KCOU/KUIN are too low to include in the TAFs attm.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for at least the first
0-12 hours until an approaching disturbance brings widespread
showers and thunderstorms into the region after 05/03z. Sustained
wind speeds will increase today due to the tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the disturbance. After looking at BUFKIT
profiles, it appears that the atmosphere will likely remain mixed
overnight, therefore LLWS was removed from the TAFs and gusts were
added.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for at least the first 0-12
hours of the valid TAF period. An approaching disturbance will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms into the region after
05/06z. Sustained wind speeds will increase today due to the
tightening pressure gradient ahead of the disturbance. After
looking at BUFKIT profiles, it appears that the atmosphere will
likely remain mixed overnight, therefore LLWS was removed from the
TAFs and gusts were added.

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
710 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

High pressure north east of the rehgion will work to keep the
regions terminals under VFR conditions through much of today. High
overcast will beging to spread into the region after 06z with the
chance for showers in the vicinity of area terminals. By sunrise
Wednesday, ceilings will be in the 3-5kft range across the region
with winds surface becoming southwesterly.

Low level winds shear will impact the Branson region for for a
breif period overnight form 05z to 08z as a low level jet clips
the region.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will persist for
much of the week due to brisk winds and low afternoon humidities.

Winds will then shift to the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning behind a passing cold front...with winds becoming gusty in
the afternoon. A drier air mass will also advect into the region
Wednesday afternoon and will result in elevated to significant
fire weather conditions. Fire Weather headlines could be required
for parts of the area...especially if humidities are slightly
lower than currently expected.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Short Term (Today through Thursday night):

Extended range (Friday - Monday):

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Bkn mid lvl clouds will dominate the TAF pd thru 03Z. Btn 03Z-05Z
thunderstorms out ahead of an approaching cold front will affect the
terminals. Models suggest cigs will remain btn 3-4kft in storms
however vsbys will be reduced to 3-5SM (with perhaps a pd of even
lower vsbys at STJ with +TSRA possible). Thunderstorms will persist thru
08Z when the cold front moves thru the terminals. Winds will also be
an issue for aviators today as SE winds this morning around 10-15kts
picks up by mid-morning to near 20kts with gusts around 30kts while
gradually veering to the SSE. Winds this evening will cont to veer to the
SW remaining btn 15-20 kts with gusts around 25kts and higher gusts
possible in storms. FROPA will occur btn 07Z-08Z veering winds to the
west around 15kts.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Short Term (Today through Thursday night):

Extended range (Friday - Monday):

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Short Term (Today through Thursday night):

Extended range (Friday - Monday):

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Quiet weather overnight, then winds will become gusty on Tuesday with
gusts possibly exceeding 30 knots at times. A band of rain and a few
thunderstorms will drop in from the north later in the afternoon and
evening, reaching the KC area around 10 PM or so.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
322 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure was translating across southern Missouri tonight,
causing winds to veer from north to eventually southeast.

Southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow, with possible gusts
up to 30 mph by late afternoon.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are
anticipated at this time.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will persist for
much of the week due to brisk winds and low afternoon humidities.

Winds will then shift to the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning behind a passing cold front...with winds becoming gusty in
the afternoon. A drier air mass will also advect into the region
Wednesday afternoon and will result in elevated to significant
fire weather conditions. Fire Weather headlines could be required
for parts of the area...especially if humidities are slightly
lower than currently expected.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
308 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Will continue with the freeze warning over west central and south
central warning through 8 am this morning. Temperatures are already
near near or below freezing, and should continue falling given the
light winds and clear skies.

Temperatures will stay below normal today because of the cool start,
the increasing clouds, and the cool southeasterly wind. MOS highs
which are mainly in the 50s still look good.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

(Tonight through Thursday)

Temperatures will get closer to normal on Wednesday ahead of the
cold front was warmer air moves into the area. Then colder air will
begin to move into the area on Thursday as northwesterly flow sets
up behind the first trough.

(Friday through Monday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east. So northeast to
east winds to veer to the southeast by daybreak. Southeast winds
to pickup and become gusty by mid morning as mid and high clouds
move in ahead of next weather system. After sunset on Tuesday,
will see the gustiness diminish but sustained winds will be from
the south between 15 and 20 kts for rest of forecast period. Will
also see low level jet pickup, so added low level wind shear
mention to all tafs after 01z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east. So east winds
to veer to the southeast by 15z Tuesday. Southeast winds to
pickup and become gusty by 18z as mid and high clouds move in
ahead of next weather system. After 01z Wednesday, will see the
gustiness diminish but sustained winds will be from the south
between 15 and 20 kts for rest of forecast period. Will also see
low level jet pickup, so kept mention of low level wind shear.
Rain chances will increase towards end of forecast period, but too
much uncertainty on timing, so left out mention for now.

Byrd

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A dry cold front had pushed through the area as of early
afternoon. Clear skies prevailed as moisture is lacking across
most of the central/southern US. While temperatures had warmed
into the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooler air was beginning to
filter in from the north. Elevated fire weather conditions will
continue this afternoon into the early evening as gusty north winds
and low RH continue behind the front.

Quiet/dry weather conditions are expected overnight and during the
day Tuesday as a shortwave trough to our northeast moves by and
heights begin to rise briefly ahead of a developing shortwave over
the northern Rockies. There will be about a 10 to 15 degree
difference in temps from west to east across the area Tuesday with middle
70s out west due to a quicker return of southerly winds and highs
barely reaching 60 out east. Winds will also begin to increase as
the day goes on with an increasing pressure gradient across the
area. Highest wind gusts will be across the western half of the
CWA. An elevated fire weather risk will also continue Tuesday
across the western Missouri/SE Kansas with the increasing wind and
low RH.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

The Northern Rockies shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front will move southeast toward the area Tuesday evening. Models
have trended less and less with precip amounts with this
system. Main reason is lack of moisture. Moisture across the Gulf
of Mexico is sparse and only upper 40s dewpoints will arrive
ahead of this system. A strong elevated mixed layer/capping
inversion will be present across the area throughout the evening
therefore it will take forcing along the frontal boundary to get
precipitation. An area of showers and thunderstorms looks to
develop across Eastern Kansas and Northwest Missouri Tuesday night
and track into the area during the overnight hours Wednesday
Morning. Instability drops off dramatically overnight with MU
capes on the order of 50-100 j/kg therefore thunderstorms are not
expected to be severe.

Northwest flow will continue Wednesday through Saturday. This
means dry and seasonable weather through the rest of the week.
Fire Danger will likely remain elevated as afternoon low RHs and
west-northwest winds will persist on a daily basis.

A reinforcing shot of cool air will move through on Friday with
low temperatures Saturday morning near freezing, especially
across the northeast half of the area. Trends will be monitored
for frost potential during this period.

GFS and EURO models suggest a system will push out of the Desert
SW on Sunday. This combined with a shortwave over Southern Canada
will help to break down the northwest flow and give us our next
chance of precipitation and warmer temperatures Sunday into
Monday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure was translating across southern Missouri tonight,
causing winds to veer from north to eventually southeast.

Southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow, with possible gusts
up to 30 mph by late afternoon.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are
anticipated at this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Fairly quiet wx pattern across the central U.S. this afternoon as
broad scale upper ridging continues to approach in advance of a
trough now working through the Pacific Northwest. While this feature
will be our next weather maker of interest...we should still be able
to squeeze one more dry...or mostly dry day out before main cold
front slides through the region during Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Before then...a strong low-level jet in advance of this feature will
allow for modest return flow trough the afternoon hours on Tuesday
with fcst guidance supporting a return of upper 40/low 50 degree
dewpoints by 00z Wednesday. This will set the stage for developing
convection across the Central Plains along/ahead of southeastward
moving cold front Tuesday afternoon. Fcst models appear to be in good
agreement that upstream convection will slide southeast into
northwest Missouri near/slightly after the 00z time frame...before
traversing the remainder of the CWA during the overnight hrs. Quick
look at fcst soundings from north-central Missouri indicates that the
airmass proceeding the front will remain capped through a good part
of the day...with frontal convergence and increasing height falls
finally allowing enough forcing to break/erode the cap by early
evening. In terms of severe wx impacts...cannot rule out an isolated
strong storm to two across the the far northwest...but overall
confidence remains marginal at best as the late day arrival of return
flow moisture along with the cap should keep instability generation
largely in check. For any storms that do become strong...an isolated
large hail or strong wind gust will be possible.

Convection to largely be east of the fcst area by 12z Wednesday
morning with fast northwest flow aloft prevailing in its wake.
Cannot rule out a few stray rain showers across the far northeast on
Wednesday...and have maintained slight chance and low-end chance
mention for now. Another weak wave to slide south across the region
on Thursday which may lead to some additional light shwr activity
across the far northeast...but overall impacts should be minimal as
better forcing remains east of the area. Beyond this...a dry late
week should lead to an uptick in precipitation chances come Sunday as
another cold front descends upon the region. As it looks right
now...feature looks to be a slow mover as front stalls over the lower
Missouri Vly which should result in continued shwr/storm chances
through early next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure was translating across southern Missouri tonight,
causing winds to veer from north to eventually southeast.

Southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow, with possible gusts
up to 30 mph by late afternoon.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are
anticipated at this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1146 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains
temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning.

Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to
remain N and NW of the CWA tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Ridge over the eastern Seaboard on Tuesday combined with deepening
low pressure over the Great Plains will turn the wind to the south-
southeast. Forecast soundings show mixing up to around 900mb...so
some gusty winds are likely in the afternoon though not as strong as
what we`ve seen in the past few days. GFS is showing some sunrise
surprise showers on the nose of the LLJ on in the strongest
baroclinicity at 850mb Tuesday morning, but the rest of the models
do not move any of this precip into our CWFA so have kept Tuesday
morning dry. Increasing clouds should hamper the diurnal warm up
somewhat, and south-southeast flow isn`t exactly a hot wind for us
especially with the bulk of a cool surface high to our east. Going
forecast looks very reasonable so I only made cosmetic changes.

Little change to the remainder of the forecast. Models are in good
agreement with the high amplitude pattern developing over the CONUS.
Should see rain and thunderstorms develop Tuesday night and continue
into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region...then
persistent northwest flow aloft will keep us relatively cloudy and
cool into Saturday. Temperatures will be at or a few degrees below
normal through Saturday. Still looks like the pattern is going to
try to break Sunday or Monday. With the flow becoming more zonal,
we should warm up again with temperatures creeping back up above
normal and an increasing chance of rain.

Carney
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.

$$
WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
633 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains
temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning.

Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to
remain N and NW of the CWA tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Carney
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Surface ridge to continue building into region tonight with north
winds veering the east then southeast by mid morning on Tuesday.
Strong winds aloft to mix down by midday on Tuesday with gusts to
near 25kts at times. In the meantime, next weather system to
approach region with an increase in mid and high clouds.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge to continue building into region tonight with north
winds veering the east then southeast by 13z Tuesday. Strong
winds aloft to mix down by 18z Tuesday with gusts to near 25kts
at times for rest of forecast period. In the meantime, next
weather system to approach region with an increase in mid and high
clouds. By Tuesday evening, could see low level wind shear, so
added mention after 01z Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 34 58 51 63 / 0 5 40 70
Quincy 30 55 48 60 / 5 10 60 50
Columbia 37 62 52 62 / 0 10 70 30
Jefferson City 38 64 53 63 / 0 10 60 30
Salem 30 54 48 62 / 0 5 20 80
Farmington 33 58 48 63 / 0 5 20 60

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-
Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.

$$
WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
626 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Winds will veer from north to southeast through the overnight
hours, as a ridge of high pressure translates through the Ozarks.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Northerly winds will become northeasterly over the next hour or two,
then easterly later tonight. Gusts over 30 kts possible Tuesday
afternoon. No precipitation expected until after sunset tomorrow.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
339 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains
temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning.

Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to
remain N and NW of the CWA tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Nly winds will continue today under a mostly clear sky. Sct to
perhaps briefly bkn cu is expected to form with bases around 4
kft which shud only impact KUIN this afternoon. Winds will become
light tonight and veer to eventually become sely by Tues morning.
A mid cloud deck will also advect into the region Tues morning.
The bulk of the measurable precip is expected to remain N of all
terminals, but precip may need to be added to KUIN in future
updates.

Tilly

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Northerly winds
this afternoon will continue to veer to the southeast overnight
before strengthening after 14z tomorrow. Any precipitation associated
with Tuesday evening`s cold front will hold off until off until
after the valid time of the current forecast period.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
215 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A dry cold front had pushed through the area as of early
afternoon. Clear skies prevailed as moisture is lacking across
most of the central/southern US. While temperatures had warmed
into the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooler air was begnning to
filter in from the north. Elevated fire weather conditions will
continue this afternoon into the early evening as gusty north winds
and low RH continue behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to
continue. A ridge of sfc high pressure extending from the western
Great Lakes to the Ozarks will move south while low pressure
moves into the western Plains. Winds will gradually veer to the
east then southeast after 00z then strengthen after 12z as the
pressure gradient tightens up over the area.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A very mild early morning is underway at this hour, with 2 AM
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, with persistent
southwest breezes. Temperatures are expected to fall to around 50
by daybreak.

A weak cold front will drop south through the forecast area this
morning, turning winds to the north. Highs today will be somewhat
cooler than yesterday, though still mild by early April
standards. Readings should range from the mid to upper 60s north
of I-44, to the low 70s across far southern Missouri. Dewpoints
should mix down into the low 30s behind the front, yielding
afternoon RH in the 25-30 percent range. Winds will be lighter
today compared to yesterday, but the low RH will still result in
elevated fire weather conditions across the region.

Surface high pressure will drop south through the Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes tonight, with overnight lows ranging from
the upper 40s west to mid 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Shortwave ridging will build in Tuesday, along with a return to
the gusty south to southwest winds, especially over the western
half or so of the forecast area. There will be quite the gradient
in temperatures on Tuesday, with highs over southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri reaching the mid 70s. Over the eastern
Ozarks, readings will only be in the upper 50s to around 60
degrees.

A cold front will move south toward the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, bringing with it the next chance for rain.
QPF trends have been downward over the last 48 hours or so, and
the 00Z suite of model guidance is no exception. A lack of quality
moisture looks to result in only a tenth to perhaps a quarter of
an inch of rain through Wednesday afternoon. Right now, it still
looks like most of the area will see some precipitation, though if
trends continue, it`s not beyond the realm of possibility that
some areas could miss out. In addition, have backed off to just a mention
of slight chances for thunder; given the poor moisture
quality/lack of instability, even that may be optimistic at this
point.

Wednesday`s system will serve to reinforce the overall northwest
flow pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS, and this should
continue into the weekend. A few frontal passages are expected
between Wednesday and the start of the weekend, though they should
largely remain dry. Steady north to northwest winds through the
period and low dewpoints will yield elevated fire weather
conditions on a daily basis.

Toward the tail end of the 7 day forecast, it is worth noting that
there continues to be general agreement in a shot of colder air
sometime in the Friday-Sunday time frame. Given the pattern in
place, it is possible that temps could fall low enough during this
time to again pose a threat for a frost or hard freeze. This will
be something to keep an eye on through the week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A very mild early morning is underway at this hour, with 2 AM
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, with persistent
southwest breezes. Temperatures are expected to fall to around 50
by daybreak.

Surface high pressure will drop south through the Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes tonight, with overnight lows ranging from
the upper 40s west to mid 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1240 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Cold front is currently moving through northeast Missouri and
west central Illinois. Radar is showing most of the mid-level
returns staying back over northern Missouri and southern Illinois
with very few surface reports. This is because the low levels are
very dry per the latest RAP soundings. Upper trough supplying the
ascent for the precipitation will move quickly east early this
morning causing these returns to dissipate by 12Z which is
depicted well by the experimental HRRR. So still expect today to
be mainly dry with skies turning mainly sunny by this afternoon.

Temperatures will be much cooler today with northerly winds
advecting cooler air into the area. Highs will be below normal
today.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Will be going with a freeze warning late tonight over south
central Illinois. The front will move well south of the area
tonight. A surface ridge will also move southeast across the area
with its axis oriented across south central Illinois into
southeast Missouri by late tonight. There will be some high clouds
beginning to spill in ahead of the next system, but think that
south central Illinois will still stay mostly clear all night
allowing for strong radiational cooling. With dewpoints staying in
the mid-upper 20s, expect this area to have overnight lows
falling to around 30, so will go with a freeze warning.

Otherwise it still looks like a weak system will pass just north
of the area on Tuesday bringing some isolated showers to northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois. Otherwise the better chance of
rain will wait until Tuesday night and Wednesday when an
impressive upper trough will drop southeastward out of Dakotas
bringing likely PoPs with a chance of thunderstorms.

The showers will linger into Thursday and Friday as an additional
shortwave trough moves through the area in the northwesterly flow
aloft that sets up behind Wednesday`s trough. The first half of
the weekend does look dry at this point before scattered showers
develop by Sunday as both the GFS and ECMWF are showing return
flow off the Gulf.

Temperatures will be below normal late week before warming up by
next Sunday.

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Tilly

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Bond IL-Fayette
IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1221 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

THE RAP MODEL WHICH WORKED THE BEST SUNDAY IS FORECASTING VERY
LITTLE COOLING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15C-
20C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS.

THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE RAP IS SILENT IN THIS
REGARD. WINDS ALOFT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT AND K INDICES IN THE NAM ARE
IN THE 30S. THUS THERE MIGHT BE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES THE ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS.

TONIGHT...DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE CNTL SD. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A 55KT
LOW LEVEL JET AIMED AT NCNTL NEB SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN CHANCES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

A STRONG PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS REGION. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PV MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY
EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM BEING PACIFIC IN ORIGIN
BRINGS SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH NO REAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN CHANCES ARE LACKING. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN CONFINE THE
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS FROM
NW NEBRASKA SUGGEST RAPID WET BULB COOLING FOR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

IF RAIN IS REALIZED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SIGNIFICANT DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...SPRINKLES
MAY BE ALL THAT IS NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER...WHICH WOULD BE
AN ISSUE FOR RANGE FIRE STARTS.

TUESDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR LARGE
RANGE FIRE GROWTH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT RFW CRITERIA RH
WILL BE MET AND THE AMOUNT OF FUEL SHADING OWING TO HIGH CLOUDS IS
UNCERTAIN. THE LARGE RANGE FIRE CONCERN LIES WITH 1)THE WIND SHIFT
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 2)WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. 3)THE POSSIBILITY OF MEDIOCRE RH
RECOVERY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND THE FACT THAT RH MINIMUM WILL
BE NEAR CRITICAL. 4)THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDER. AT
THIS POINT IT WILL BE BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND
FWF...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE RELATED HEADLINES.

DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES /NEAR AVERAGE/ ON WEDNESDAY...FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
EXTREMELY GUSTY AND MINIMUM RH FALLS BELOW 25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SW NEBRASKA.

FOR LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE SUGGESTED TO TREND UPWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES. 70S ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING. BY DAY 7 THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DAY 5 AND
BEYOND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS FROM 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

SWRN NEB GETS 20 PERCENT RH WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25
MPH THIS AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR EXP
AND NAM MODELS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

611 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

THE RAP MODEL WHICH WORKED THE BEST SUNDAY IS FORECASTING VERY
LITTLE COOLING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15C-
20C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DIURNAL HEATING...ISOLATED LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 61.

THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 FROM ROUGHLY 06Z TONIGHT ONWARD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

THE RAP MODEL WHICH WORKED THE BEST SUNDAY IS FORECASTING VERY
LITTLE COOLING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15C-
20C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

OVERNIGHT LIGHT WINDS WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TOMORROW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON MIXING WILL INCREASE WINDS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
ALSO GOING TO SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BKN100 TO BKN150. IN THE VALLEY
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES/DIMINISHING WINDS...WHICH INCLUDES THE
KLBF TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED
AFTER SUNSET AND BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...IMPACTING THE KVTN
TERMINAL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

257 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRES OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA WHICH
WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NE PA AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR ERN FA IN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NRN WAYNE COUNTY IN NRN PA. HERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM.
STRONG TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH MAXES IN THE NRN FA IN
THE UPPER 20S WITH THE WYOMING VALLEY IN THE MID 40S. OVER NE PA
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE NERN PA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND A
SLIGHT PUSH OF THE WARM AIR NWD ALONG THE SRN TIER AFTER 8 AM.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF
430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE BROAD
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 925-850MB F-GEN INDUCED BY THE STRONG
WAA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS SEEMED TO LIMIT
THE AMT OF SNOW. A STRONG PUSH OF DRY 700-500MB AIR FROM THE SW
INTO THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIP TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
THERE IS HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH THE ROBUST F-GEN TO ALLOW THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS
ALSO CAUSING -FZDZ IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL. THERMAL/MOISTURE
PROFILES OFF THE RAP SHOW WELL THIS DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
-10C ISOTHERM...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIALLY
SUPER- COOLED DROPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN
FOR -FZRA IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. AS
THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THE
LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS MAY NOT WARM UP QUICK ENOUGH...TRAPPING THE
SUB- FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC AND ALLOWING FOR FZRA.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR THE SNOW
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY TO CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THE SNOW FURTHER
TO THE NORTH TO PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY THE EARLY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OUT OF
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO
THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND COMBINE WITH COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
DRY...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. BUT
GENERALLY THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE WRN
CATSKILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THIS RELIEF WILL COME WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT WED
MORNING ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND CHANGE
TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR MASS
ADVECTS SLOWLY IN FROM THE SW. THE WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES CARVING OUT A DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AT LEAST FOR
NOW NONE OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. THE COLDEST DAY IN THIS PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO BE SATURDAY... WITH GRADUAL MODERATION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS
MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL NY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING AT AVP BY AROUND 20Z. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
00Z WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BKN
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT AROUND 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR.

LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

222 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF
430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO
THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHILLY TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SPREAD FOR PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WEATHER- MAKING SYSTEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING RAIN FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
THE GFS AND THUS IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT REGARDLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...SOME AREAS MAY MIX BACK TO RAIN
BRIEFLY...OTHERS STAY SNOW. TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO DIVE
WELL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN UPPER TEENS FOR
SOME LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY 30S-NEAR 40 FOR HIGHS AREAWIDE
SATURDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT COME...HAS
BEEN FOLLOWED BY A SPRING THAT HAS NOT SPRUNG.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS
MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL NY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING AT AVP BY AROUND 20Z. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
00Z WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BKN
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT AROUND 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR.

LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1118 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF
430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO
THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MESSY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING....NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP TO MOVE
INTO THE THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WILL BRING SNOW MIXING
WITH RAIN FOR KELM/KBGM WITH VISBYS LIKELY MVFR AT WORST. EXPECT
KBGM TO SEE MAINLY IFR CIGS WITH KELM ALSO SEEING IFR CIGS AT
TIMES. FARTHER NORTH, FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY
MAINLY SNOW AND STILL PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
BANDS. KAVP HASN`T SEEN MUCH PRECIP YET BUT WILL SEE MAINLY JUST
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS AS PRECIP MOVES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES OUT
WITH MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER, LASTING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
BY THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY E/SE 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT TO
N/NW THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR.

LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ046-057-062.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...PCF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

710 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE NERN PA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND A
SLIGHT PUSH OF THE WARM AIR NWD ALONG THE SRN TIER AFTER 8 AM.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF
430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO
THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MESSY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING....NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP TO MOVE
INTO THE THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WILL BRING SNOW MIXING
WITH RAIN FOR KELM/KBGM WITH VISBYS LIKELY MVFR AT WORST. EXPECT
KBGM TO SEE MAINLY IFR CIGS WITH KELM ALSO SEEING IFR CIGS AT
TIMES. FARTHER NORTH, FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY
MAINLY SNOW AND STILL PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
BANDS. KAVP HASN`T SEEN MUCH PRECIP YET BUT WILL SEE MAINLY JUST
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS AS PRECIP MOVES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES OUT
WITH MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER, LASTING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
BY THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY E/SE 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT TO
N/NW THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR.

LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ036-037-045-046-057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-056.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...PCF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

430 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF
430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO
THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW, MODERATE AT TIMES, WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL NY SITES
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT IFR VISBYS HOWEVER KSYR/KRME WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WAFFLING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS UNTIL A SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING
IFR VISBYS. KAVP WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AROUND 8Z WHEN A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW MOVES IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS/VISBYS.

FOR MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF (BY 13-15Z),
RESTRICTIONS (MVFR-IFR) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH LINGERING
LOW CEILINGS UNTIL PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS LATE MONDAY EVENING.

EXPECT WINDS MAINLY SE AT 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, E-SE
WINDS IN THE MORNING AT OUR NY SITES, AND SW WINDS AT KAVP, WILL
TURN N-NW IN THE AFTERNOON, AND BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KT AREA-WIDE).

.OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR.

LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...PCF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

317 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CHARACTERIZE THIS EVENING`S FORECAST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE VIRGINIAS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE WITH ONLY A COUPLE
OF HUNDRETHS OF QPF. STRONG WINDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE INITIATED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
BANKS ZONES ALONG WITH MAINLAND DARE COUNTY STARTING AT 08Z
TONIGHT. AS THE STRONG CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH A BLUSTERY DAY UPCOMING
WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 40S...RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH A SUNNY AND DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THURSDAY. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST QUICKLY WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE/UPPER
TROF PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
ONLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE AND DRY ELSEWHERE. STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS SPREADING IN BEHIND IT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 WITH MID 30S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND IS OFF THE COAST MONDAY. RESULTING NORTHWEST
WINDS MONDAY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR SO.
THIS WILL CAUSE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT KEWN RUNWAY 14/32 AND
AT KPGV RUNWAY 15/33. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND MAINLY
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM.

AT AROUND THIS TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT WILL ALSO
BRING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT SOON AFTER AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEAR
SKIES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOUTH WIND WEDNESDAY 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15-20
KNOTS THURSDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE WEST 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY. A FAST-MOVING TROF SWEEPS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE MID 20S.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND 23 KNOTS AT DUCK. ALSO SEE WINDS
INTO THE 20S ON THE SOUNDS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT ADVISORIES AS
GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME NORTH WITH VERY STRONG CAA TO KICK IN AS
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40
KNOTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER DURING
TUESDAY WITH 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ON THE INLAND
RIVERS. THE WIND/SEAS PEAK DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CURRENTLY BUILD
QUICKLY TO 4-6 LATER THIS EVENING...THEN AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECT SEAS AS HIGH AS 9-12 FEET CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM. THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA...A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROF FRIDAY AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING RATHER TIGHT.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KNOTS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WITH HIGHEST SEAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT OF 7-11 FEET.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MON...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY N/NW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S WILL
LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 ON TUESDAY. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 04/06/2016 WEDNESDAY

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 30/2004 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 36/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 28/1918 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 31/2004 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 27/2004 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 25/2004 (KNCA AWOS)

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>093-098.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ047-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/SGK
MARINE...CTC/HSA
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

458 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AFTER A COULD COOL BUT DRY DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A RETURN
TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE MID WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRACKING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ALOFT FOR MUCH MORE IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION. STILL SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...BUT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR JUST ALOFT EXPECT MIXING TO
BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 60S. FURTHER NORTH A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH COLDER AIR
JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. EXPECT THE COLDER AIR TO BEGIN TO
WORK ITS WAY SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BY THAT TIME MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER. WITH PRESSURE RISES INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE REGION SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY THE MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. SECONDARY LOW
FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS LIKELY AS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A
BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF
MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW...OVR S MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE
THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM.
LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR
INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND
THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL
FALL AS RAIN.

THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC
WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA
AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND
LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS
THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z.

ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF
MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING
FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-16Z AT KBFD AND
BTWN 16Z-20Z AT KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.

THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

233 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPEED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER
LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR POISED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND IT FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY FOR
THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIDE TEMPERATURE SPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND DEEPER VALLEYS CLOSE TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. PRECIPITATION SHIELF SLIDING SOUTH AND LOSING INSTENSITY
AND COVERAGE. FORECAST OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA ON TRACK WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL WARMER
AIR MIXES AND RAISES TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. STATE COLLEGE
COULD SEE PRECIP INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT SLEET OR BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN BUT AIR ALOFT IS WARM AND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE QUICKLY.
SOUTH WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE RACING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA BY
SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS THE COLDER 850 TEMPS RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT COULD END AS A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR
THE ENTIRE EVENT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW RACES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS
ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY
WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z
WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY
WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW...OVR S MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE
THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM.
LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR
INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND
THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL
FALL AS RAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.

THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1153 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPEED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER
LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR POISED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND IT FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY
FOR THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STEADIEST SHIELD OF SNOW IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN NY...WITH THE
PRECIP OVER NORTHERN PA BEING OF A MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY
NATURE.

HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO NY STATE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER AREA IS MADE TO DROP SE INTO THE FCST
AREA DURING THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PROGRESS OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD...I SLICED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BY MAYBE
HALF OR MORE GIVEN THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AGREES TEMPERATURES AT
850 GO ABOVE ZERO BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ICING AS SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN OVER SLOW TO RECOVER SURFACE TEMPS. I MENTIONED ICE PELLETS
GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE RACING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA BY
SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS THE COLDER 850 TEMPS RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT COULD END AS A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR
THE ENTIRE EVENT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW RACES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS
ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY
WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z
WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY
WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW...OVR S MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE
THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM.
LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR
INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND
THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL
FALL AS RAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.

THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS.

FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LUBBOCK TX

918 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE MOMENT WAS PACKING A SUBSTANTIAL PUNCH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
73 MPH IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS DID LIKELY
SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM MID LEVEL CONVECTION. EXTREME PRESSURE
RISES PROGGED IN THE MODELS AND SHOWN IN MSAS DATA WILL LOSE SOME
LUSTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FA BUT WILL STILL BE NOTHING TO
SCOFF AT. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE AN ACCEPTABLE HANDLE ON THE FRONT
TIMING AND SPEEDS ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BIT ON THE SLOW SIDE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ACROSS AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK EXTENDING OVER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 5 AM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/

AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND SHIFT TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS BTWN 05Z AND 07Z. WIND TO REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT...JUST FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TO AOB 12KTS BY NOON AT KPVW AND KLBB AND BY MID-AFTERNOON AT
KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A WARM, DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE
WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR ASPERMONT HAS REACHED 88 DEGREES AS OF
2 PM WHILE WINDS WERE THE GENERALLY THE STRONGEST /30 TO 40 MPH/
FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM. FAIRLY THICK HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED KEEP BLOWING DUST DOWN SO FAR...BUT WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS THE
CLOUD COVER SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO A COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN SOUTH BY AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
IT WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...AS
GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT....ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE WIND SPEEDS WITH THE FROPA
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS OUT NEAR THE STATE LINE...SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. OTHERWISE...AFTER A BREEZY START...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NICE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH SPANNING MUCH OF TEXAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
NESTLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT UNDER STEADY BUT
DECAYING NW FLOW. AFTER A QUICK REBOUND TO BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD SW WINDS ON THURSDAY...THE FINAL VESTIGES OF THIS NW FLOW
WILL DELIVER ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN MARKEDLY WITHIN A NW-SE RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE STOUT BY ANY MEANS AND IS ALREADY
QUITE DIRTY FROM AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS MOIST FETCH SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
WEST TX FROM LATE THU THROUGH FRI AND COULD SERVE TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS MUCH COOLER ON FRI THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICITS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY IN
RELATIVELY DRY ERLY SFC FLOW...THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE ALOFT AS
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING RAMPS UP OVER MUCH OF NM AND OUR WRN ZONES AHEAD
OF A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH SUCH ANEMIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE TROUGH...A LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF SATURATION AND WEAK ASCENT
WOULD APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM FRI
AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT POPS LARGELY AT 20 PERCENT AS
THE RATE AT WHICH THIS MOISTENING ADVANCES EASTWARD IS ANYTHING BUT
SETTLED AMONG THE 12Z MODELS. ALSO...MUCH OF THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL
BE ABSORBED ON FRIDAY BY A VIGOROUS CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF CA...SO LIFT
OVERALL DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE AS
STRONGER SW FLOW ADVECTS STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUR WAY.

INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLIES FROM THE GOMEX ON SUNDAY SHOULD
CULMINATE IN A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION WITH PROSPECTS FOR
ORGANIZED T-STORMS LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS THEME DESPITE SOME SIZABLE
DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
TROUGH CARVING OVER THE NRN CONUS BY SUNDAY. RAISED POPS TO THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD PREFERENCE FOR NOW
GIVEN EARLY SPRING CLIMATOLOGY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FROM THE
PRIOR FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
TEMPS COOL AND WINDS DECREASE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN-MOST AREAS THROUGH 9 PM. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AND DESPITE LOWER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS THOUGH WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ021>031-033>036-
039>041.

01/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

235 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE T OVER VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ALSO MINIMIZED IN AN AREA SPANNING FROM ATASCOSA TO SOUTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTY AFTER 08Z SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND ADDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE WX GRID FOR THIS PERIOD AND AREA.

MORE OF THE SAME WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY HOWEVER
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS A H5 CLOSED LOW
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WHILE IT LIKELY WONT HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...IT WILL PUSH
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA COUPLED WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
THEREFORE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FUEL ANALYSIS MAINTAINS AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE SO THIS THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A RED FLAG THREAT AT THIS TIME. BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND
BACK TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BROAD CLOSED LOW COMING ONSHORE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE NEXT BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GO AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT DGEX DOES
ADVERTISE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE DETAILS TO COME AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 83 58 79 51 / 0 0 0 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 81 56 78 47 / 0 0 0 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 82 56 79 49 / 0 0 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 82 56 78 49 / 0 0 0 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 86 62 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 83 57 78 48 / 0 0 0 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 82 58 80 47 / 0 0 0 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 51 80 56 78 48 / 0 0 0 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 81 58 78 48 / 0 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 81 59 79 50 / 0 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 83 58 80 51 / 0 0 0 10 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

411 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

AT 3 AM...A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM EMPORIA
KANSAS TO CLEVELAND OHIO. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CYCLONIC FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE EVEN
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE 04.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE THREAT OF ANY FLURRIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH 04.15Z. SINCE THIS THREAT
LOOKS SO SMALL...IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ANTI-CYCLONIC THIS AFTERNOON...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 50 TO 100 MB LAYER OF MOISTURE
/BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB/ WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. DUE TO THIS...THE CLEARING TREND WAS SLOWED DOWN. LIKE
MANY TIMES IN THESE SYNOPTIC SITUATIONS...WE DO NOT TYPICALLY SEE
CLEARING UNTIL THE 925 TO 850 MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA. WITH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN UNTIL THIS EVENING...HELD
OFF THE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL THEN.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY DROP...AND THEN THERE
WILL BE A RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. DUE TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /LOWER 20S/ TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IN CLARK /PRIMARILY NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29/
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES WHERE THE NOSE OF THE WARM LAYER WILL ONLY
CLIMB TO 1.5F AT MOST AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
COOLEST. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THESE AREAS
LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SLIPPERY
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE MORNING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW...
AND THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO A DEPTH
OF 1500 TO 2000 FEET. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE
LATEST GFS COBB DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE UP TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW IN SOME AREAS.

BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE EMCWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANYWHERE FROM A 3 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD IN MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE THERE IS NO REAL CLEAR SIGNAL
ON WHICH SIDE OF THIS ZONE THE AREA WILL END UP...JUST STAYED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

STILL WATCHING THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. THE CEILINGS IN THIS BAND HAVE COME DOWN TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR...THEY HAVE ONLY MADE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH WHILE BECOMING A LITTLE UNORGANIZED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE 04.00Z NAM REMAINS VERY BULLISH ON BRINGING THIS
CLOUD DECK INTO KLSE OVERNIGHT BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT NEARLY AS
CLEAR AT KRST. THE 04.03Z RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE DECK
WILL NOT MAKE IT TO KRST OVERNIGHT BUT THAT A CEILING WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY MORNING ONCE SOME HEATING STARTS TO WORK ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...WILL GO MORE WITH
THE RAP AND SHOW SOME SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR KRST OVERNIGHT
WITH A CEILING DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRIEFLY BE
MVFR BEFORE GOING UP TO VFR SO JUST OPTED TO GO WITH A VFR
CEILING. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN WORKING TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND STILL FEEL THESE WILL MAKE INTO KLSE
OVERNIGHT WITH A MVFR CEILING THAT WILL THEN GO UP TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME MIXING. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THIS VFR
CEILING WILL THEN REMAIN...BUT OPTED TO HOLD IT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT
NECEDAH WISCONSIN. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 15.5 FEET
TODAY...AND THEN GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON TUESDAY.

OTHER RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1143 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WI. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH WING OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...AS ADVERTISED...AN IMPRESSIVE NE-SW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE 60S SOUTH OF I-94. FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MN WITH GUSTS
IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY FOR US. NAM 0.5-1KM RH FIELD AND LATEST
SYNTHETIC 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED-BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS DECK ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COLDER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY...HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE
30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. PLAN ON LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

STRONG WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/850-700MB ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCES A
NW-SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MORNING
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM BY LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THERE COULD BE UP TO 1/2 INCH MAINLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL
RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS LOWER COLUMN/SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING IN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH...SOME FLAKES COULD MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING FOR ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.

RAIN/SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING WAVE OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN
THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A COUPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FOR SMALL-END
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

A LITTLE HOPE ON THE HORIZON FOR MILDER WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD ALSO SPARK OFF
SOME SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS LOOKS LIKE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH. THE
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 15.5 FEET MONDAY MORNING.

OTHER RIVERWAYS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT REMAIN
WITHIN BANK THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

414 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

FCST FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS...SN AMNTS AND GOING
WINTER WX ADVYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN U.S. WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. 12Z THU. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN
INTO THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRI. NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING IN FOR THU NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE
AREA ON FRI WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN. WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HAD TO DO A LOT OF EDITING FOR THE QPF AND POPS GRIDS AS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS LOOK TO GET HIT WITH A LONG LASTING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FROM THU INTO SAT. BUMPED UP QPF AND POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS A BIT AS
AIRMASS IS COLD AND HAVE FRESH SNOW COVER AT NIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE COLD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP AND COLD 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. 12Z SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR OF -18C TO -21C AND WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 2C...THIS IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH A LARGE LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH ANOTHER
ALBERTA-CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND REMAINS INTO TUE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WET FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016

WITH LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TO LOWER MI BY LATE
THIS AFTN...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKELY TREND DOWN TO LIFR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN
AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NE TO N. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ004-005.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>003-009>012-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

136 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

FCST FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO IN THE NRN PLAINS...SN AMNTS AND GOING
WINTER WX ADVYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED APR 6 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004-
005.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>003-009>012-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

Short Term (Today through Friday night):

A cold front, associated with an upper level shortwave evident on
water vapor imagery moving through the eastern Dakotas, will push
through the CWA this morning. Out ahead of this front showers and
thunderstorms moved into the area last night. Thunderstorms have
diminished however, showers continue to move eastward across the
area this morning. These showers should exit the area by mid
morning. This morning, the aforementioned shortwave will develop a
closed low and dig southeastward through the Midwest during the day.
The upper low is progged to move into northeastern MO this afternoon
bringing another chance for showers across the northeastern CWA.
Strong northwest winds and northwest flow aloft will provide for a
cooler day with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Tonight, a vort max
will stream into the area on the northwest flow bringing another
quick shot of showers again, to the northeastern CWA. Thursday,
another shortwave, will move through the area on continued northwest
flow aloft. This will bring yet another chance for light showers
across the eastern CWA. Temperatures despite strong northwest winds
will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will build
into the area on Friday drying conditions out however weak mixing
will keep temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s. High pressure
remains over the area Friday night allowing for light winds and
clear skies and good radiational cooling. Temperatures are expected
to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Considering how far along we
are in the growing season, freeze warnings will most likely be
needed with future updates.

Extended range (Saturday - Tuesday):

The extended range will feature another period of unsettled weather
however, it will begin on the quiet and cool side. Saturday, will
start off very chilly and with high pressure remaining in control
through the day expect highs to only rebound into the upper 40s to
upper 50s. Saturday night, warm air advection will get underway with
the chance for a few light showers. Sunday, upper level ridging
builds into the region. A few shortwaves are progged to move through
the area on Sunday continuing shower and thunderstorm chances.
However, despite the precipitation chances, temperatures are still
expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sunday night a more
vigorous shortwave will eject out from a broad upper trough over the
Great Basin region and force a cold front into the area. This will
lead to more organized convection Sunday night and into Monday as
the front stalls across the CWA. Thunderstorm chances will continue
into Monday night when the upper level trough over the Great Basin
finally moves into the eastern Plains and forces the cold front
southeast of the CWA. Conditions will dry out on Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the area however, conditions will be cooler
with highs in the mid 50s to near 60.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

A line of showers with embedded thunder continues to work through the
lower Missouri Valley tonight. So far...CIG/VSBY trends have
remained above VFR thresholds and expect that trend to continue
through the overnight hours. Although a few lightning strikes cannot
be ruled out...loss of instability will continue to lead to a gradual
reduction in convective activity. Shwrs should move east of area
terminals after 10/11z...with dry conditions then dominating for the
remainder of the fcst cycle. Winds will increase out of the northwest
after 13z...with sustained winds of 20 kts with gusts over 30 kts
possible at times.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
328 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

The main forecast concerns for the short term were precipitation
chances/end time today as well as fire weather for this afternoon.
We have refreshed the fire weather discussion below.

An upper level short wave trough and associated surface cold front
will move southeast through the region this morning. A band of
mainly post-frontal precipitation will accompany these features.
Mainly light rain showers are expected, however a rumble or two of
thunder are not out of the question. Most of the shower activity
will exit the eastern Ozarks by early or mid afternoon.

Behind the front, winds will become brisk and gusty out of the
northwest. While we will see cool air advection this morning, the
advection pattern will become much weaker this afternoon. We are
therefore expecting mild temperatures again today with highs
ranging from the lower 60s around Rolla to the upper 60s around
Joplin and Anderson.

Quiet weather conditions are then expected for tonight with winds
relaxing. We are generally expecting low temperatures in the lower
to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Cyclonic upper level flow will reestablish itself on Thursday with
upper level short wave energy quickly moving southeast towards the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. This will drive the tail end of another
cold front through the area. Most precipitation is expected to
remain northeast of the area, however some weak convection will be
possible in the afternoon across portions of central Missouri. We
have left thunder out of the forecast as instability will be very
marginal. Otherwise, another day of brisk and gusty northwesterly
winds is on tap for the Ozarks.

One thing we will have to watch for is late afternoon gust
potential as forecast soundings show abnormally high mixing
heights. If this mixing occurs, it is feasible that Wind Advisory
criteria (gusts to 45 mph) could be approached for a few hours
before we start decoupling. We continued to go on the warm side
of guidance for high temperatures Thursday given the high mixing
heights and lagging cold air advection.

Better cold air advection will then kick in Thursday night and
Friday as high pressure builds southeast across the central
Plains. It is not out of the question that we get some patchy
frost Thursday night in protected valleys across the Ozarks. The
much better chance for a frost and/or freeze will come Friday
night as a surface ridge axis slides overhead. Low temperatures in
the lower to middle 30s appear increasingly likely across much of
the area Friday night.

Saturday then looks dry as that ridge axis slides off to our east.
Global models have thrown a bit of a wrinkle into the mix for
Saturday night into Sunday with a quick moving short wave trough
shearing east across the area. This could open the door to some
shower activity if enough lift/moisture are present.

The better chances for showers and thunderstorms will come from
Sunday night into early next work week as the upper level flow
turns southwesterly. We should also see another warming trend
early next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to pay attention to radar late tonight and into Wednesday
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the
region. Many areas may escape these storms as they could be hit
and miss in nature. If a storm directly impacts an airfield,
expect flight conditions to temporarily go down to MVFR or IFR.

A cold front will be approaching the region from the west,
bringing a wind shift to the area. Look for gusty west northwest
winds through the day on Wednesday. Otherwise, southerly gusts up
to 30 mph can not be ruled out prior to the front reaching the
Ozarks early this morning.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will continue
through Friday due to brisk and gusty winds and low humidities.

Today: A cold front will move southeast through the area. Showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms associated with the front will
move out of the eastern Ozarks by early to mid afternoon. Rainfall
amounts will range from a few hundredths up to two-tenths of an
inch.

Meanwhile, brisk and gusty northwest winds will develop behind the
front. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph are
expected this afternoon. A drier air mass will also advect into
the region from late this morning into this afternoon. However,
confidence in how low dew points will drop is below normal. At
this time, we think dew points will remain just high enough to
keep afternoon humidities above 25%. However, values any lower
would require a short-fused Red Flag Warning. The greatest
potential for these conditions being met would be along and west
of the I-49 corridor.

Thursday: Another cold front will zip through the region with
brisk and gusty northwest winds again expected. Sustained winds of
15 to 20 mph are expected with late morning and early afternoon
gusts of 25 to 30 mph. However, very high mixing is expected by
late afternoon. This may result in gusts approaching or exceeding
40 mph in the late afternoon. Meanwhile, an even drier air mass
will filter into the area with afternoon humidities expected to
fall below 25% over many areas. A Fire Weather Watch and/or Red
Flag Warning may eventually be required for Thursday afternoon if
confidence in this forecast increases.

Friday: That dry air mass will remain in place across the region
with afternoon humidities again expected to fall below 30%. Winds
will be somewhat brisk and gusty out of the northwest, but not
quite as strong as Wednesday and Thursday. Nevertheless, elevated
fire weather conditions are again expected Friday afternoon.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
328 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

The main forecast concerns for the short term were precipitation
chances/end time today as well as fire weather for this afternoon.
We have refreshed the fire weather discussion below.

Quiet weather conditions are then expected for tonight with winds
relaxing. We are generally expecting low temperatures in the lower
to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will continue
through Friday due to brisk and gusty winds and low humidities.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
314 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Still will see showers and scattered thunderstorms moving through
the area today as upper trough currently extending from the
Dakotas back into the central High Plains will move into eastern
Illinois by 00Z tonight according to the NAM/GFS. Have kept with
timing the line of showers and scattered thunderstorms with a band
of stratiform rain behind it during the morning and early
afternoon hours. The showers and scattered storms will be mainly
focused ahead of the cold front between 12-18Z where the low level
moisture convergence will move from west to east across the the
CWA under the ascent ahead of the mid level trough. There will
also be a band of rain behind initial band of showers that shows
up well on the CAMS that will last for a few hours. The rain will
begin to end as the upper trough axis begins to move into the the
area during the afternoon.

With current temperatures already in the 50s, will likely see
temperatures rise a few degrees more before falling with the rain
and then recovering again this afternoon. Highs will generally be
in the 60s.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

(Tonight through Friday night)

Still looks like wwe will be going into a highly amplified upper
pattern during this pattern as first upper trough moves off to the
east. GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing a second trough moving
southeast in the northwesterly flow aloft across the area late on
Thursday which supports addition showers over the area. The
longwave trough will shift eastward enough by late Friday into
Saturday that dry weather is expected with the surface ridge
moving into the area. Below normal temperatures are expected
through this period with the potential for widespread freezing
temperatures on Friday night. Will continues to highlight this in
the HWO.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

GFS/ECMWF are still showing that the upper flow will become more
zonal over the weekend on both models with an upper trough and
attendant cold front moving across the area by Monday. Still looks
like there will be enough Gulf moisture move up ahead of this system
to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week.
Will see temperatures getting back to near normal by Sunday and
Monday before cooling back below normal behind the early week cold
front.

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Winds have become quite gusty ahead of frontal boundary, so have
southeast to south winds with gusts to near 30kts at times.
In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms to make their way into
KUIN/KCOU by 09z Wednesday and STL metro area by 14z Wednesday
with winds diminishing a bit and veering to the southwest to west.
Then on back side of front, decent winds to mix down to surface
again, with gusts to near 30kts. VFR conditions expected though
could briefly see MVFR conditions with storms for taf sites along
I-70 corridor. Also, could see some scattered showers wrap around
on back side of system, so have vicinity shower mention through
sunset for areas along and east of Mississippi River. Once sun
goes down, will see winds diminish to between 10 and 15 kts and
cigs scatter out.

Specifics for KSTL:
Winds have become quite gusty ahead of frontal boundary, so have
southeast to south winds with gusts to near 30kts at times.
In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms to make their way into
metro area by 14z Wednesday with winds diminishing a bit and
veering to the southwest. Then on back side of front, decent
winds to mix down to surface again, with gusts to near 30kts. VFR
conditions expected though could briefly see MVFR conditions with
storms. Also, could see some scattered showers wrap around on
back side of system, so have vicinity shower mention between 18z
Wednesday and 02z Thursday. Once sun goes down, will see winds
diminish to between 10 and 15 kts and cigs scatter out.

Byrd

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
314 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

(Tonight through Friday night)

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Byrd

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1146 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Tonight:

Very strong and gusty southeasterly winds will continue through the
evening hours with near advisory criteria winds over parts of west
central MO and east central KS.

Wednesday - Friday:

Saturday - Tuesday:

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1146 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Tonight:

Very strong and gusty southeasterly winds will continue through the
evening hours with near advisory criteria winds over parts of west
central MO and east central KS.

Wednesday - Friday:

Saturday - Tuesday:

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Winds behind the cold front will be strong out of the northwest
gusting over 30mph most of the afternoon. This will make for a
blustery Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions expected the rest of the
afternoon. Low level moisture was slow to increase and winds were
increasing ahead of the surface low.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Winds behind the cold front will be strong out of the northwest
gusting over 30mph most of the afternoon. This will make for a
blustery Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions expected the rest of the
afternoon. Low level moisture was slow to increase and winds were
increasing ahead of the surface low.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1138 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

TES
&&