Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/05/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

915 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE FIRST EDGE OF SHOWERS
REACHING NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING...WITH EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WYOMING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO SURVIVING ONTO THE PLAINS.
OVERALL FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. DID BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS A BIT
MORE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MAX WINDS IN
THE MIXED LAYER REACHING 35-40 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. FIRE DANGER
CERTAINLY INCREASING BUT HUMIDITIES MAY BE JUST SHY OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME.
RAP AND NAM INDICATE NEUTRAL AND WEAK NEG QG ASCENT OVER THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE CO/KS STATELINE
SEPARATES SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID SELY FLOW OVER KS FROM DRIER LESS
HUMID S-SWLY FLOW OVER ERN CO. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...POORLY
DEFINED SFC TROUGH LIES JUST EAST OF DENVER. EITHER SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH BNDRY LAYER WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS
RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS VISIBLE ON SAT IMAGERY NOW REACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THE CWA IS APART OF AN UPPER AIR SYSTEM...ITS AXIS PRESENTLY OVER
WRN IDAHO/ERN NEVADA. QG OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE A NARROW NORTH-
SOUTH RIBBON OF WEAK/MODERATE ASCENT ALIGNED WITH A HEAVY CLOUD
BAND PASSING OVER WRN UTAH. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AT ITS
PRESENT SPEED SHOULD SEE THIS SYNOPTICALLY PRODUCED CLOUD SHIELD
SPREADING OVER THE N-CNTRL COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AND NOT LOOK
AFTER THAT THE FORMATION OF FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LOWERING
CONDENSATION LEVEL. MEANWHILE EAST OF THE MTNS...SHOULD ALSO SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A TRANSITION TO SLY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...NAM...GFS AND RAP SHOW MID-LEVEL QG ASCENT INCREASING
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. 18Z RUN OF
THE NAM AND RAP NOW INDICATE ONLY LIMITED QPF FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS NOT KICKED BY THEN.
EAST OF THE MTNS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT DEEPENS DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS. THE BUSINESS END OF
THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY PASS OVER THE NRN/CNTRL CO
MTNS SETTING OFF A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER NOTHING YET EAST OF THE MTNS PRIOR TO 18Z.
MODELS SHOW A STAND-UP COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVANCING
TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING THEN OUT ACROSS
NERN CO PLAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW
THIS BNDRY STALLING OUT FOR A TIME ROUGHLY ALONG A JULESBURG TO
LIMON LINE. IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BNDRY LOW CAPES AND SHEAR MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW T-SHOWERS. ANY QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG POST-TROUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO WORK DOWNWARD TO PRODUCE 25-40KT NWLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO KICKS IN SENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. GUSTY W-NWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
OR EVEN PREVENT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE REACHED IN
MOST AREAS BEFORE 19Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL AID IN DRYING EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT WILL HELP TO BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY FOR DENVER. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED GRADIENT PROVIDED
BY THE SURFACE LOW EXITING TO THE SE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO NW COLORADO. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT
LOOSENS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF SOUTHERN CA BY 18Z SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN THAT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS HAS BACKED OFF THE LOW ENTERING
NE COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND DOES NOT CARRY MUCH OF A
PUNCH AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EC PLACE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016

WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH A SUBSIDENT AND
WELL MIXED AIRMASS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR 35 KNOTS FOR THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME DURING
STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING. WINDS MAY START TO INCREASE
ALREADY BY 17Z-19Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH ONLY BKN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

431 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTH WINDS
THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE RACES OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE EAST ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A LARGE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT....DRIFT EAST AND SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL INTO MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...STRONG AND DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA...AND
WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS.

WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS NOW -5 TO -10 DEGREES C/ AND
DYNAMIC COOLING TAKING PLACE...PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. SNOWFALL IS MAINLY OCCURRING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING PRECIP FROM
OCCURRING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE BEST
SNOWFALL WILL BE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND
DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY VARY BASED ON LOCATION
AND ELEVATION. SNOW MAY NOT STICK QUITE AS WELL AS IT WOULD IN THE
CORE WINTER MONTHS DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER...SO LOOK FOR
ACCUMULATION TO BE HIGHER ON GRASSY...ELEVATED...AND NON PAVED
SURFACES.

IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE KEPT ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS
LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE ALSO ADDED SRN LITCHFIELD
AND TACONICS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH
2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...AS BASED ON LATEST 3KM
HRRR.

JUST A COATING TO AN INCH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE THE HRRR HAS BEEN
OVERDONE ON QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS MORNING SO FAR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
MAY BE LIMITED TO A BRIEF PERIOD JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN THE
GREATER ALBANY AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...NW WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT MIXING TO 700 HPA AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 MPH OVER THE REGION...WITH GUSTS 40-60 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY ON SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT ONGOING
WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES. AREAS THAT SEE SNOW
MAY SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH WINDS
STARTING TO PICK UP AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN SNOWFALL IS TAPERING OFF.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE REGION...AND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH THE WIND.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER LOOK TO OCCUR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTN. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO THE NW
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAUSING SOME LAKE EFFECT...BUT THE BULK OF
THIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD GFS/NAM/GEM ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. AT
500 HPA A SCREAMING NW FLOW WILL COVER THE NE USA...IN RESPONSE TO
A 24C BAROCLINIC ZONE BTWN THE NY/QB BORDER AND I80. DURING THE
EVNG A WK RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE RGN...HOWEVER A FAST MVNG SFC
WAVE RACES EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ROUGHLY I80
CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO NY/PA BORDER IN GEM.

NOT MUCH OF SHORT WV HWVR RGN IS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE ZONE OF
A 100KT 300HPA JET...WITH THIS MAJOR SFC FRONT AND SFC WAVE PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE RGN FM
W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE BTWN I80 AND
I90 AS WILL THE BEST QPF.

THE OVERNIGHT BURST WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW...PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND END FM NW-SE AS SFC LOW DEPARTS LATE MON MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.
A TRAILING 500 HPA SHORT WV WILL MOVE INTO NYS MON AFTN...PROVIDING
SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

TOTAL QPF ON MOST MODELS 0.20 TO 0.40 WITH SOME ISOLD 0.6 AMOUNTS
IN HIR SOUTHERN TRRN. WHICH WOULD IMPLY 2-5 INCHES WITH ISOLD 6
INCHES. WWD HAS RIBBON OF 4-6 IN FM MHWK VLY...N CATSKILLS...CAP
DISTRICT...TWRD W NEW ENG ZONES WITH AMNTS DROPPING OFF N AND
SOUTH OF THAT.

HWVR DURING MON MRNG...AT H850 HPA TEMP REACH 0 C AT LEAST AS FAR
N AS I84/NY SR 17 AND A TAD FURTHER N ON OTHER RUNS. ADD THE
STRONG APRIL SUN...EVEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...AND SOME OF THIS PCPN
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN PARTICULARLY IN S TIER...AND MAJOR S
VLYS...SUCH AS THE HUDSON. ALL IN ALL A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW...ATTM RAIN MIX MAY LIMIT REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SFC LOW...500 HPA SHORT WV AND ASSOC CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL
DEPART QUICKLY MON AFTN. MEANWHILE AT 500 HPA A SERIES OF SHORT
WVS WILL SHARPEN A TROF OVER THE NE USA...WHICH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TUE. AT THE SFC THIS WILL ALLOW A 1030 MB ARCTIC SFC HIGH TO
PLUNGE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON EVNG TO NY/PA TUES
EVNG...THEN SLIDE OFF SHORE WED MRNG.

WITH A 12MB NE SFC PRESSURE GRAD OVER NYS WINDS WILL BE BRISK MON
NT..BUT SHOULD STAY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
FAIR MAINLY DRY PERIOD. AT MOST THERE MAY BE SOME TRRN FORCED
SCT-BKN CU AND SNOW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. BUT THE MAIN FEATURE
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL YO YO AND WINTER HAS ONE MORE PUNCH TO PULL IN
THIS FCST PERIOD.

BY WED ONE TROF HAS EXITED THE E SEABOARD...ANOTHER IS DIVING INTO
THE UPPER MISS VLY...AND A FLAT RIDGE IS OVER THE E USA. THE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND IT BEGINS TO MODERATE AND SET UP AN INCRG
S-SW FLOW OVER EAST USA. ASSOC WITH UPR MIS VLY SHORT WV A SFC LO
MVES NE INTO W GRTLKS...AND PUSHES A WMFNT INTO NYS WED. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WAA CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE FCA...AND -SHRA/SN ARE
POSSIBLE IN N ZONES BY EVNG. TEMPS BEGIN WED QUITE COLD...BUT
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS THINKING REFLECTS THE
SLOWER ECMWF/GEM/WPC E ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS IS FASTER
AND WOULD IMPLY LESS SUNSHINE WED.

WED NT AND THURS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY TRANSITS ACROSS NY/NEW
ENG...WITH AN INCRG THREAT OF SHRA WED EVNG...AND GOOD CHC WED NT
AND THU. TEMPS WILL CONT THEIR UPWARD TREND TO NR NORMALS THU
PRIOR TO CFP THU AFTN. INTO THU THERE MAY BE SVRL NON-DIURNAL TEMP
SITUATIONS...AND WILL HAVE MAX MINS DROP OUT OF 3 HOURS TEMPS IN
GRIDS.

THU NT INTO FRI A SERIES OF SHORT WVS DROP SE FM ONT AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES FRI NT. HERE THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH WPC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

THE GFS STALLS THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THU WELL OFFSHORE. THE
ECMWF STALLS IT JUST EAST OF FCA. BOTH PRODUCE A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENISUS LATE IN EFP...THU FOR ECMWF...FRI FOR
THE GFS BUT WELL OFFSHORE. THE GFS WOULD IMPLY WX OVER FCA WILL BE
DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE CUT OFF SYSTEM. AN UNSETTLED CHILLY PERIOD
WITH CLOUDS AND -SHSN/RA-. THE ECMWF A MAJOR CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
LOW WITH LOTS OF RAIN. GIVEN THAT MAJOR MODEL CONSENSUS HAS GONE
OFF THE RAILS BY THE LATTER EFP ITS BEST TO USE BLEND AND SEE HOW
THIS LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT EVOLVES. BY THE END OF THE EFP WHICH
EVER PATH THE SFC LOW TAKES ITS DEPARTURE IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD SURGE FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH -SHRA/SN AS CUTOFF LINGERS
OVER NE USA.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS PRECIP SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO
SNOWFALL. IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT SHOULD GO
OVER TO JUST SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH...PRECIP WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY FOR KGFL...SO WILL GO WITH JUST MVFR CIGS/VSBY
THERE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING 11Z-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN LINGERING CIGS AT 2500-5000 FT.

BEHIND THE STORM...W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-30 KTS AND GUSTS OF 35-50 KTS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL START AROUND DAYBREAK...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY...AND WILL FINALLY START TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CIGS
WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY AND TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY. SUFFICIENT RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEK TO KEEP FUELS WET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

SOME SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL IF ANY
RESPONSE WILL OCCUR ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TODAY AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS.

APRIL 3RD:

ALBANY NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943
DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891
MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013

GLENS FALLS NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985

APRIL 4TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003
DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975

APRIL 5TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003

APRIL 6TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ047-
051-058-063-066.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
041>043-083-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

417 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE REGION...AND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH THE WIND.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL YO YO AND WINTER HAS ONE MORE PUNCH TO PULL IN
THIS FCST PERIOD.

THU NT INTO FRI A SERIES OF SHORT WVS DROP SE FM ONT AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES FRI NT. HERE THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH WPC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS PRECIP SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO
SNOWFALL. IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT SHOULD GO
OVER TO JUST SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH...PRECIP WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY FOR KGFL...SO WILL GO WITH JUST MVFR CIGS/VSBY
THERE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING 11Z-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN LINGERING CIGS AT 2500-5000 FT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TODAY AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS.

APRIL 3RD:

ALBANY NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943
DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891
MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013

GLENS FALLS NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985

APRIL 4TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003
DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975

APRIL 5TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003

APRIL 6TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

345 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE KEPT ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS
...LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE ALSO ADDED SRN LITCHFIELD
AND TACONICS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH
2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...AS BASED ON LATEST 3KM
HRRR.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE REGION...AND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH THE WIND.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL YO YO AND WINTER HAS ONE MORE PUNCH TO PULL IN
THIS FCST PERIOD.

THU NT INTO FRI A SERIES OF SHORT WVS DROP SE FM ONT AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES FRI NT. HERE THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH WPC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING 11Z-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN LINGERING CIGS AT 2500-5000 FT.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE SNOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE NEW WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DUE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW...MINIMAL IF ANY
RESPONSE WILL OCCUR ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON ITS WAY AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS.

APRIL 3RD:

ALBANY NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943
DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891
MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013

GLENS FALLS NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985

APRIL 4TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003
DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975

APRIL 5TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003

APRIL 6TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

220 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALONG A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL CONTINUE MVG
EAST ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY NY AND SOUTHERN CT AHEAD OF THE
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. WIND GUSTED TO
35-40 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

RAPID DEEP LVL COOLING IS OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
LOW. AT KMGJ...RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW AT 0523Z/123 AM...WHERE VSBYS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 3/4SM.

HRRR SNOW ALGORITHMS FOR THIS EVENT A BIT DECEIVING BASED ON
THICKNESS. SNOW SHOULD NOT OCCUR WITH WET BULB ZERO ABV 3000FT. AS
A RESULT...HRRR INDICATES BASED ON WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT THAT SNOW
OCCURS ONLY ON THE WRN/NWRN FLANK OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER CNTRL CT PER THE HRRR AND 00Z NAM IN A BAND OF STRONG
MID LVL FROGEN...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS YET.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN
CT FROM NEW HAVEN AND EAST AS WELL AS SUFFOLK COUNTY NY ON LONG
ISLAND THROUGH ALL OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH HEIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTIONS BEGINNING.
THIS WILL BE COINCIDING WITH POLAR UPPER LEVEL JET PHASING WITH
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JET AS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY...THEN DEEPENING STILL AS
IT MOVES TOWARDS CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RAPID INCREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. ONE FEATURE THAT IS VERY
CONSPICUOUS IN THE POSITIVE PRESSURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE STRONG ISALLOBARIC ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS IS VERY PRONOUNCED FROM 09-12Z SUNDAY WITH THEIR 3 HOUR
POSITIVE PRESSURE TENDENCIES OF 8-11 MB IN THE NAM. THE 6 HOUR
PRESSURE TENDENCIES SHOW 6-12 MB POSITIVE TENDENCIES SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST. THE
MAGNITUDE OF POSITIVE PRESSURE TENDENCIES DECREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL
NO LONGER BE ADDING TO THE WIND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING SO
WINDS WILL REALLY JUST BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON THE MIXING DEPTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND. HOWEVER...THE MIXING DEPTH WILL
STILL BE PRETTY LARGE SO EVEN WITH A DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...GUSTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE FROM NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
BE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE INCREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS COMBINED
WITH SNOW WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES. EXACT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
TO ALLOW FOR MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO HOW
FAST THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BUT GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATION. AHEAD
OF THE LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG TO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE LOCAL REGION BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH THE COLDER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH WIND WARNINGS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH MAX WINDS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MIXING DEPTH INCREASES AND BRINGS DOWN HIGHER WINDS WITHIN
THE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASES
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MIXING HEIGHT
WILL BE INCREASING ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO DROP OFF ONLY BY A SMALL
AMOUNT. OUT EAST ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWN
BY SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MIXING FROM THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MIXING HEIGHT LOWERS AND WITH PRESSURE TENDENCIES
GETTING CLOSER TO NEUTRAL...WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SUBSIDE. THERE
IS SOME SLIGHT RIDGING AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND INITIALLY DECREASING
CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER HAZARD IS FORECAST BY WAY OF THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO EXPERIENCE SOME GREEN UP OF VEGETATION. THIS WOULD BE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NYC AND SOUTH OF THE MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WHICH WOULD PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ....SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER NY...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK NY ON LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS
COASTAL CT. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A FREEZE WATCH FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A RE ENFORCING COLD AIRMASS. EVEN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL NO RECORDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG RIDGES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULTS IN THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF THURSDAY. ONE DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE ALONG THE
COAST. SO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AFT 6-8Z WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 KT.

WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE
MVG EAST ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH 08Z.

IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERN
NJ...CT AND LONG ISLAND THRU 12Z SUNDAY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
UNTIL 18Z.

MIXED PCPN AND STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD CAUSE BRIEF WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC
TERMINALS...BUT UP TO 2 INCHES AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS.
.MON...SUB-VFR WITH RAIN FOR KISP/CITY/NJ TERMINALS. MIXED PCPN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ELSEWHERE. SW G25KT AM BCMG NW PM.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW G20KT.
.WED...VFR. SW G20-25KT PM.
.THU...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. S-SW G30KT. CHC LLWS.

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN VIA LINGERING SWELLS. MARINE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RANGING MAINLY
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT. WINDS THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GALES QUICKLY ESCALATE TO STORM FORCE AFTER 06Z WHEN
STRONG POSITIVE PRESSURE TENDENCIES COME IN AS WELL AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN. STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY AND THEN FOR EASTERN WATERS UNTIL 22Z
SUNDAY. WESTERN WATERS WILL BE MORE IN THE GALE RANGE 18-22Z
SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVY LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN MON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SCA CONDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. SUB-ADVY CONDS RETURN FOR
MOST OF WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATER
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
NORTHERN WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN IN A STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
AS SNOW.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ006>008-
010>012.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ009>012.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-
176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
350-353.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/GC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

212 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ALONG A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BOTH PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NUMEROUS SHWRS REMAIN OVER CT. EXPECT SMALL HAIL TO CONTINUE TO
OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HRRR SNOW ALGORITHMS FOR THIS
EVENT A BIT DECEIVING BASED ON THICKNESS. SNOW SHOULD NOT OCCUR
WITH WET BULB ZERO ABV 3000FT. AS A RESULT...HRRR INDICATES BASED
ON WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT THAT SNOW OCCURS ONLY ON THE WRN/NWRN
FLANK OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER CNTRL CT PER THE
HRRR AND 00Z NAM IN A BAND OF STRONG MID LVL FROGEN...BUT DID NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS YET.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AFT 6-8Z WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 KT.

WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE
MVG EAST ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH 08Z.

IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERN
NJ...CT AND LONG ISLAND THRU 12Z SUNDAY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
UNTIL 18Z.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

High pressure will build into the Lake Michigan area from the
northwest tonight eliminating the remaining low cloudiness
associated with Lake Effect snow off of Lake Michigan. Although it
may take a few more hours for cloud cover north of a Bloomington-
Champaign-Danville line to clear, most of the cloud cover over
central IL has already cleared. Winds 5-10 mph out of the
northeast continue this evening, and these will continue to slow
and turn E-SE overnight as a result of the high pressure region.
Temperatures have dropped to the upper 30s to mid 40s at most
sites so far, and these will continue to fall to the upper 20s as
the E-NE winds help to push a cold air mass over central IL from
the northeast. A freeze warning remains in effect from Schuyler
County to Vermilion County southward where the growing season has
begun. Current forecast is on track and no significant updates
needed this evening.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

18z/1pm surface map shows cold front just south of the Ohio River,
while a 1031mb high builds southward out of Manitoba. Low clouds
associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes continue
to drop southward behind the departing front, with latest visible
satellite imagery showing scattered to broken clouds along/north of
a Macomb to Paris line. HRRR suggests these clouds may develop a
bit further south over the next couple of hours before rapidly
dissipating early this evening. Based on the highly diurnal look to
the clouds on satellite, think clearing will indeed occur quickly
near or just after sunset. Will hang on to a few clouds from
Bloomington to Champaign through mid-evening, then will go mostly
clear across the board for the remainder of the night. Brisk
northerly winds will become east-northeast and decrease to less than
10 mph tonight as Manitoba high builds into the Great Lakes. Thanks
to clearing skies and diminishing winds, overnight low temperatures
will drop into the upper 20s. Current Freeze Warning along and
south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville line will remain in
place with no changes planned at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Fairly active pattern on tap for the upcoming week, with periods of
rain showers and some thunderstorms, breezy conditions at times, and
shots of cold air with potential freezing conditions and even a bit
of snow. Mother Nature can`t seem to decide what season to go with
at the moment.

Deep upper trough currently along the Pacific Northwest coast will
close off an upper low over northern Montana overnight, helping to
intensify an Alberta Clipper which will dive into the Midwest around
mid week. Rather dry layer below 10,000 feet will need to be
overcome before any precip arrives, as high pressure drifting
eastward won`t provide much of a return flow late Tuesday evening.
Have maintained some slight chance PoP`s during the day over the far
north as initial shot of energy tracks across the upper Midwest, but
think main period of rain will be after midnight Tuesday night
through early Wednesday afternoon, once the cold front passes
through. Far southeast CWA may remain dry until early Wednesday
morning, with the cold front still over the northwest part of Illinois
at sunrise. MUCAPE`s of 300-500 J/kg progged over the region, so
will maintain a mention of thunder as well. Wraparound showers
likely to follow as the upper trough passes through Wednesday night.

Next Canadian storm system will be close behind, forming over
northern British Columbia Tuesday and diving into the Midwest by
Thursday morning. Scattered showers will accompany its passage, with
the threat lingering over the eastern CWA into Friday as a strong
northwest flow brings another upper trough/low into the region.
Can`t rule out some snow accompanying the rain as 850 mb
temperatures drop to around -8C. Current indications are that this
system may very well be accompanied by a hard freeze Friday night
with lows in the mid-upper 20s.

Upper pattern over the weekend transitions into more of a split flow
as low pressure drifts in from off the southern California coast,
and another wave tracks along the Canadian border. Some timing
differences between the GFS and ECMWF on how fast the precipitation
returns, but both have at least scattered showers in by Sunday
afternoon. The associated frontal boundary is expected to hang up in
between the split flow Sunday night, lingering into Monday. The
ECMWF is stronger with digging this northern wave, and thus favors a
stronger surface reflection with thunderstorms more likely. Not
going into that full-scale at the moment given it`s still several
days out, but have included a chance of thunder over the southeast
third of the forecast area Monday, with isolated chances elsewhere.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Strato-cu with bases at 4-5k FT will quickly dissipate after
sunset across the central IL terminals. Scattered CU should
redevelop after 14Z, while mid level clouds increase through the
afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This low
will cause initially N/NE winds this evening, to veer to the east after
midnight, and SE for much of Tuesday. The pressure gradient will
gradually tighten through the day, causing sustained 10-15 kts
during the afternoon. Bufkit momentum transfer shows a narrow
window around 21-00Z when some higher gusts over 20 kt could occur
especially from I-55 to the west, but with low confidence at that
range will leave out of current TAFs. Isolated showers may
approach the western terminals late afternoon as a warm front
moves into the area.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

841 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
839 PM CDT

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FORECAST AS WELL AS DROPPING
THE FORECAST LOWS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES AS CLEARING REMAINS
EXPECTED OVER AN ALREADY CHILLY AND MAINLY DRY AIR MASS.

SURFACE RIDGING IS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM A
1030MB HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE 00Z DVN RAOB
MEASURED -2C AT 925MB WHILE GRB HAD -7C. THESE ARE GOOD SYNOPTIC
PARAMETERS FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY EARLY APRIL STANDARDS. THE
CHALLENGE IS IF THE STRATOCU WILL TOTALLY DISAPPEAR AND THINK THAT
IT MAINLY WILL. NORTHERLY 925-850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
THE CLOUDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...WHILE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD EAT AWAY AT THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA WHICH HAS
BEEN SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FORECASTING
CLEARING HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IT THUS FAR...BUT
THINK THE GENERAL TREND IS RIGHT.

IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY CLEAR AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COOL SPOTS FAVORED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S BASED ON DEW POINTS
AT THAT LEVEL.

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
206 PM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE ONGOING GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO OHARE TO KANKAKEE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN SOME WET
ROADS. THE HEAVIER ECHOES ARE TRANSIENT GIVEN MARGINAL INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND SUBPAR MOISTURE COLDER THAN -10C. THE MOISTURE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO THIN IN THE COMING HOURS BUT LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF
300-400 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW THE
MOISTURE LAYER TO THIN...BUT ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR
CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL THINNING
OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF CLEARING WILL
DIRECTLY DETERMINE THE COOLING TREND TONIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S...SOME MID TO POSSIBLY LOWER 20S AWAY FROM URBAN
AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD TOMORROW
MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
MAY CARRY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-88 AND WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT BENIGN...AND WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND IN PLACE...THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GOOD...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KMD

.LONG TERM...
345 PM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AN OVERALL DECIDEDLY WINTER LIKE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE IN STORE DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING APRIL...RESULTING IN
ACTIVE WEATHER AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVEN PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK THAT MOVED
ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. A VERY STRONG 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW ON THE MODELS BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
OVERALL SETUP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SECONDARY LEAD WAVE WILL
FOCUS INTO THE NORTHERN/ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE
EVENING WITH POPS TAILORED TOWARD THIS IDEA. VERY INTENSE LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS WELL AS STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND THEN EASTERN
CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION COULD YIELD
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LOW DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB TO THE LOWER 40S AND REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN RISE THEREAFTER WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AFTER HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 50S. TRAILING MIDLEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN BAND OVER THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY BROADBRUSHED WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. PRECIP
RATES WILL BE KEY IN WHETHER FULL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CAN OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

A FEW MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVEN BY IMPRESSIVE
HIGH AMPLITUDE (2014-2015 ESQUE) RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA. THESE DETAILS WILL BE HONED IN OVER THE COMING DAYS. OVER
THE WEEKEND...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AT THIS DISTANCE LOOKS
FAVORABLE BELIEVE IT OR NOT ON MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...BUT HELD WITH CHANCE POPS.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS BACK ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH RAIN POTENTIAL RETURNING
AND PERHAPS EVEN THUNDER THOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET.

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

625 PM...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SLOWLY END.
MAINLY VFR CIGS 3-5KFT WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE EVENING WITH SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND WITH ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY LATER
THIS EVENING AND THEN LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15KTS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FURTHER TUESDAY EVENING...REMAINING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES SPREAD INTO NORTHERN
IL MAY END UP DISSIPATING. SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY MENTION
AT RFD AND ALSO INCLUDED VICINITY MENTION AT ORD TUESDAY EVENING
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID/
LATE TUESDAY EVENING. CMS

.MARINE...
428 PM CDT

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE OVER THE LAKE. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA NEARSHORE AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN THE LIGHTER
WINDS TEMPORARILY. THEREAFTER...THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH AND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO RAMP UP ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE OPEN WATERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS...AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE LAKE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO MILD TO PRECLUDE GALES. HAVE THUS ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE OPEN WATER AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
NEARSHORE...WHICH HAS 30 KT MENTION IN THE NSH FOR NOW. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH WHICH THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY...GALES MAY REDEVELOP OR LINGER FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS TO START THURSDAY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE LAKE. THE NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT
AND VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR APRIL WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST 25-30 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS. PATTERN DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GALE POTENTIAL
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BARRING BIG CHANGES IN THE SETUP.

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
643 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

637 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Northeast winds continue across the area this afternoon and will
continue to gradually veer to the southeast overnight as the surface
high moves southeast. A low pressure trough will develop across the
Western High Plains region tonight. An upper level shortwave trough
over the Pacific Northwest will move east into the Northern and
Central Plains on Tuesday. Tonight a low level jet will develop
across the Central Plains with the best moisture transport across
western and central Kansas, just west of the CWA. Thermal and
moisture advection will focus showers mainly to the north of the
forecast area in Nebraska and have removed small chances of light
rain in the north. Lower boundary layer will be mixed tonight and
with some increase in clouds expect lows in the 40s.

Tuesday, as the upper trough moves out into the Plains moisture will
gradually increase through the day with a narrow moisture axis
across eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours. A cold front is
forecast to move southeast and extend from northeast Nebraska across
north central Kansas to low pressure in southwest Kansas by late
afternoon. Forecast soundings show a capping inversion in place for
much of the day with models differing on how quickly the cap will
erode. Forecast soundings suggest high based storms are expected to
develop within veered low level flow during peak afternoon heating.
Bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts is forecast along with steep lapse rates.
Some of the storms that develop may become strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts the main hazard along with some hail. Highs on
Tuesday are expected to top out from the lower 70s far northeast to
around 80 near central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Tuesday Night Through Thursday...

Tuesday night, a positive tilt upper level trough will move east
across KS. Stronger ascent ahead of the upper trough along with
surface convergence ahead of a cold front, as well as isentropic
lift northwest of the surface cold front, will cause numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop across north
central KS during the early evening hours. The front will push
southeast across the CWA by midnight as a the line of showers and
scattered thunderstorms pushes east across the CWA during the mid
and late evening hours.

The NAM model looks too robust in forecasting surface and 850mb
moisture return ahead of the surface front. The GFS and WRF model
solutions look more realistic with limited moisture return. Forecast
sounding show about 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, thus some of the
thunderstorms may be strong and produce small hail gusty winds. If
the NAM model were to verity with MUCAPES of 1200-1500, then a few
storms may produce quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts during
at least the early evening hours. Total QPF will be a one quarter
inch or less.

Wednesday, temperatures will cool a bit back into the lower 60s for
highs behind the front. Gusty northwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH, along with minimum RHs in the 20 to 30 percent
range will cause an elevated fire danger.

Wednesday night and Thursday, a secondary front will push southeast
across the CWA. Temperatures will not cool much and Highs will
remain in the 60s. Once again during the afternoon hours northwest
winds will increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH and RHs
will be in the 20 to 30 percent range. Once again there will be an
elevated fire danger Thursday afternoon.

Thursday Night Through Monday...

A large trough across the eastern United States will sustain
northwest flow aloft across the central plains through the end of
next week. As the eastern trough ejects to the northeast, split flow
returns as a broad trough in the southern stream forms across the
Baja of California. A more active pattern is looking to take shape
by the end of next weekend. As the trough pushes eastward next
weekend, both EC and GFS have decent moisture return with upper 50
dew points across most of the area by Sunday afternoon. Both EC and
GFS have a frontal boundary draped across the area Sunday afternoon,
with thunderstorms possible to the south and east of the boundary. EC
then quickly advances the cold front southeast Sunday night into
Monday, while the GFS is slower and lingers the cold front across
the area through Monday afternoon.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Two concerns
exist through the period however. The first is winds, south to
southeast winds will become gusty by mid-morning on Tuesday with
sustained near 15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. LLJ is expected to
strengthen to 50-60 knots tomorrow afternoon and with sufficient
BL mixing, winds will also increase with sustained 20-25 knots and
gusts 30-35+ knots. Timing of thunderstorms late tomorrow
afternoon/evening is the other concern. Current model solutions
would tend to generate convection after 00z tomorrow evening at
all terminals.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/Gargan
AVIATION...Baerg

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A strong and progressive shortwave trough and accompanying cold
front will pass across the central plains late Tuesday. Ahead of
this system, surface troughing will develop in the lee of the
Rockies tonight. This system will amplify over the Midwest by
late Wednesday, with weak surface high pressure building into
Colorado. In the wake of the Midwestern system, surface high
pressure is expected to develop over the central plains by
Thursday night. After another upper level system is expected to
progress into the northern Rockies this weekend, with lee
troughing over the high plains. By Monday, this system is expected
to move across the central plains, with an accompanying cold
front.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Winds will slowly veer to the south tonight and increase a bit in
speed as the surface trough develops. Southwest winds can be
expected Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Expect temperatures to
fall into the mid 40s tonight, with brisk south winds keeping it
milder. Very warm temperatures can be expected ahead of the front
on Tuesday, especially along the Oklahoma border and into south
central Kansas. Highs can be expected to range from near 80 around
Scott City to near 90 in Ashland.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Strong winds can be expected behind the front Tuesday evening,
with winds possibly reaching high wind warning criteria. A few
sprinkles or light rain showers are possible behind the front.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Wednesday with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. The coolest morning this week should
be Friday as the aforementioned area of surface high pressure
arrives. Lows should be in the 30s to near 40 degrees. A warming
trend can be expected over the weekend as lee troughing develops,
with highs rising to well into the 70s. Cooler air will move into
western Kansas by early next week with highs in the 60s. Lows
could be well down into the 30s by early to mid next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Southeast winds at around 10 knots early this evening will
increase to around 15 knots after midnight as a trough of low
pressure at the surface deepens along the lee of the Rockies. The
winds will then continue to increase early Tuesday and by 18z are
expected to vary from 15 to 20 knots. A cold front will cross
western Kansas during the afternoon and as this cold front
crosses the GCK and HYS areas the winds will shift to the west
and eventually the northwest by late day. At DDC a southwest wind
at 20 to near 25 knots will be possible from 21z Tuesday through
00z Wednesday. Clouds will increase and lower from northwest to
southeast during the day on Tuesday but based on 18z NAM BUFR
soundings and the latest RAP the cloud bases will stay above
6000ft AGL through 00z Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A high wind warning was issued for Tuesday afternoon since dry
downslope flow can be expected ahead of the cold front. The
strongest southwest winds will be along and south of a line from
Liberal to Greensburg to Pratt. It is unclear whether winds will
be strong enough in far western and southwestern Kansas for Red
Flag criteria to be met.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 87 44 69 / 10 20 20 0
GCK 47 81 40 69 / 10 20 20 0
EHA 46 81 40 71 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 47 86 42 71 / 10 20 20 0
HYS 48 79 44 67 / 10 30 40 0
P28 49 88 48 71 / 10 30 30 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ080-081-
086>090.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ061>066-074>079-084-085.

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Finch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1130 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY WITH THE LAST OF ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AIR IS POURING INTO THE STATE ON NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLACKEN LATER TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAINLY CAA FORECAST AND ONE
WITHOUT MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. AS
SUCH WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO VARY BY DAWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON THE RIDGES. THE READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR
SOUTH...WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL GET IN ON THE BATTLE OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SOME
LOW ONES...LIKE ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WILL SETTLE INTO THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BEFORE
DISSIPATING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL THIS MAY SPARE EAST KENTUCKY
THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THIS LATEST ARCTIC BLAST...BUT STILL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB 30 DEGREE TEMPS FOR MOST OF
OUR ZONES BY MORNING...IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THESE THOUGHTS AS WELL AS TWEAKED
THE TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND
TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SSE ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF 3Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE...BEGINNING TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. AND BY IMPACT...THERE REALLY HASN/T BEEN MUCH. A SOLID
LAYER OF DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE...WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION POINT. AS A RESULT...CIGS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE VFR AND RAIN HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT...WITH HIGHEST QPF
MEASUREMENTS ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH SO FAR.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST COMES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE
BEHIND BOUNDARY...IN ADDITION TO QUICKLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
SO DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE VALLEY
SPLITS. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY
NEARLY THE SURFACE...WITH A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN AIR IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE EXITING TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG CAA DURING THE NIGHT. THE STRUGGLE...THEREFORE
...WILL BE HOW WELL MODELS AND GUIDANCE CAN HANDLE THE CLOUD COVER
VS. CAA FOR LOW TEMPS. GUESSES ARE IT WON/T BE WELL.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN KY TO STILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STILL FORECAST TO SEE FREEZE
WARNING CRITERIA /BELOW 30 DEGREES/. HOWEVER...IF WE DO SEE ANY
CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD EASILY BOTTOM OUT LOWER
THAN FORECAST OR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. WILL
DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO KY
TO ERODE AWAY THE CLOUD COVER AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDING
TAKING HOLD ALOFT...EXPECT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS TO FALL TO
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...WHILE STILL REMAINING NORTHERLY. WITH
SUCH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN KY. MEANWHILE...STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ABLE TO COMMENCE TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION TO THE S LATE IN THE NIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT IN MANY OF THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS...PROMOTING A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON THE RIDGES...AND IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEVELOPING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING UP A DANGEROUS FREEZE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...PUTTING FRUIT TREES AND SENSITIVE PLANTS IN
DANGER.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LACKING ANY INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. IN FACT...DRY AIR
(MUCH LIKE EVERY SYSTEM IN THE PAST MONTH) MAY EAT AWAY AT
PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND WE MAY NOT END UP
WITH AS MUCH QPF AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. REGARDLESS...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A MEASURABLE RAIN FOR ALL AREAS. BRIEF SUBSIDENCE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER TO
THE AREA THIS SPRING. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PEGGED TO DROP TO AS
LOW AS -10C BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND AIR TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 20S...ON PURE COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BUILD AND CENTER ITSELF OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SETTING UP AN EVEN COLDER MORNING AS SOME AREAS COULD
SNEAK INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
40...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS HOLD IN. A WARM UP IS ON TAB FOR SUNDAY
AS WE SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE TO 70 BY
MONDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AGAIN.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES.
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS. WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ANY
IMPACTS. SNOW CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

THE COLD FRONT IS POISED TO EXIT THE STATE TO THE SOUTH TAKING ITS
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WITH IT. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE A MVFR CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING...UNTIL ENOUGH DRY AIR IS ABLE TO PULL IN AND SCATTER
OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE SYM TAF AND
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IT IN THE JKL AND SJS TAFS LATER. SCATTERED
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
941 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

...Freeze Expected Tonight...

Forecast remains on track this evening with a wide temperature
gradient behind today`s cold front from N to S. Current temps are
running from around 40 north to the upper 50s S. These temps will
continue to fall off through the overnight on a steady N wind. Have
been keeping an eye on stratocu deck dropping out of the north
through this evening, and what potential impacts these clouds might
have on the temp forecast toward dawn. Overall, thinking remains
unchanged with shallow moisture layer between 900-950 mb that will
slide across our eastern CWA through late evening. Then as low level
winds veer to NE through the pre-dawn hours, clouds should begin to
push more west and get sheared apart. This should leave enough time
for some radiational cooling toward dawn as dew points drop into the
low and mid 20s. Am a bit concerned that clouds could linger across
the eastern half of the CWA, but this is more of an advection
scenario than radiational cooling getting us below freezing. So,
will leave the Freeze Warning as is, and will continue SPS for
Patchy Frost across south central KY. Areas of frost are still
expected in the Freeze Warning region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

...Freeze Expected Tonight...

As of mid afternoon, a surface front bisected the forecast area and
was analyzed from eastern Kentucky to southwest Kentucky. There was
a nice temperature gradient across the area with low 70s in the
south while southern Indiana had readings in the mid 50s and north
winds gusting 20 to 25 mph. A broken line of light showers and
sprinkles has moved through today, and for the most part amounted to
no more than a trace.

Forecast challenge in the short term is cloud trends tonight and its
impact on temperatures and the freeze potential. Latest visible
satellite shows an extensive area of strato-cumulus over the lower
Great Lakes. Some of this is diurnal and will dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating, but some clouds will try to spill south
into the northern Bluegrass tonight. The moisture is rooted between
900-950 mb, and model forecasts for this layer show at least some
clouds hanging on through portions of the night. The HRRR cloud
cover forecast has handled today`s stratus across the north fairly
well, so leaned on it for tonight. It shows clouds breaking up and
dissipating between 3-6z, which will leave plenty of time for
temperatures to fall.

The low dewpoints and light winds tonight add confidence for
temperatures to reach the 28 to 32 degree range where the current
Freeze Warning exists. Outside of the warning, temperatures will be
in the 33 to 35 range and could still see patchy frost. Will issue
a Special Weather Statement for those areas.

Tuesday will be a seasonably cool day but mostly sunny with perhaps
some upper-level clouds increasing late in the afternoon. Look for
highs in the low to mid 50s. Another chilly night is expected
Tuesday night with lows in the low 40s to the mid 30s across the
northern Bluegrass. For now, readings look to stay above freezing in
those areas.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

The forecast highlights in the long term are a storm system for
Wednesday and Wednesday night, then turning unseasonably cold with a
few chances for freezes late in the work week and this upcoming
weekend.

The synoptic pattern Wednesday is expected to feature an upper level
shortwave trough over the central Plains while a surface low will
likely be across the Upper Midwest. With high pressure anchored over
the Carolinas, we`ll have increasing southerly flow and moisture
return. This system has trended slower with the front not crossing
the area until the mid afternoon to late evening hours.
Precipitation chances were adjusted accordingly, with the highest
chances starting in the afternoon. The Bluegrass region may remain
dry until the late afternoon. Highs should make it up to the mid 60s.

Behind this front, much cooler air filters in for Thursday with
highs in the low to mid 50s. Northwest flow aloft with quick passing
shortwaves will bring a few chances for showers Thursday into Friday
night. During the day, some of these showers may bring some small
graupel given the steeper low level lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft. At night, surface temperatures may be cold
enough to support some wet snowflakes. A couple of raw, cold April
days to round out the work week.

The potentially headline story will be the hard freeze potential
Friday and Saturday nights. Friday night may be the coldest of the
period with lows forecast now in the mid 20s to low 30s. Those with
agricultural interests will need to monitor these days closely over
the coming week.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 723 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Gusty N winds will gradually slacken into the evening hours, however
will stay up between 5 and 10 mph overnight. Main cocern will be
with VFR/MVFR stratocu deck slowly working its way SE. LEX will have
the best shot at some MVFR ceilings on either side of the Midnight
hour, but will continue with going forecast of ceilings just above
the MVFR/VFR threshold. SDF should only see a glancing blow so will
only mention a SCT layer.

Surface winds should veer to a more NNE direction through the
overnight hours with mostly clear skies. Any lingering clouds on
Tuesday should be Few-Sct around 3-4 K feet with steady NE winds.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Tuesday for KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.

IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

845 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
631 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

For aviation section only.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

The "cold" front has moved south of the area. However with
decent sun, and the cold air lagging, it`s still a mild/warm
afternoon. KFWC at 57, KPOF at 77, so a nice 20 degree gradient.
Will continue to monitor lower clouds over IL/IN moving south.
Not sure how much of this area will move across our CWFA.
Soundings (KEVV, etc.) not showing much cloud potential. Will
keep percentages low for now across the KEVV tri-state. Overnight,
with high pressure moving across the Great Lakes, the southward
extending ridge axis will traverse the region. Guidance shows
we never really go calm. But light winds expected with modest
decoupling. Expanded the Freeze Warning southward slightly, about
a row of counties. Patchy frost possible most areas. Quiet weather
Tuesday with the high moving east and gradual return flow setting
up.

Models overall are in decent agreement for the next precip event,
mainly Wednesday. Forecast is based on inherited elements, and a
blend of the NAM and GFS 12z versions. Most of Tuesday night
should be dry. Focus will turn to an upper trof reaching the Upper
Midwest 12z Wednesday. Surface front should be across Missouri to
our west at that time. As the upper trof and front move east
through the day, showers and a few thunderstorms continue to be
forecast per the latest model data. Will carry likely to low end
categorical PoPs. Chances decrease quickly from west to east
Wednesday evening, dry after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A mid level shortwave in the persistent cool northwesterly flow over
the eastern CONUS will provide a chance of pcpn for the PAH forecast
area mainly Thursday/Thursday night. Height falls/thicknesses late
Thursday night seem conducive for some light snowfall mixing in with
rain across most of southwestern IN and adjacent southeastern IL.
Behind the early Friday surface cold front, which is not depicted
all that clearly by some of the medium range models such as the
ECMWF, there will be another shot of cool dry air, though the 12Z
ECMWF seems to show the greatest tendency for light but measurable
pcpn lingering well into the day.

Afterwards, the forecast is dry and unseasonably cool through the
first half of the weekend. Most model indications are that one more
surge of cool dry air will make its way to the PAH forecast area by
Saturday morning. Freezing temperatures are quite possible over the
northeastern half of our region then. The new air mass should keep
us pcpn-free through Saturday night under fast north northwesterly
mid level flow.

A rapid transition to a warm advection regime continues to be shown
by the models to occur on Sunday. There is some possibility of
measurable rainfall later in the day in the west, associated with
the presence of a sfc warm front traversing the area and an
increasing low level jet. Along with this, there should be a jump in
the afternoon highs compared to Saturday, well into the 60s.

A double-barreled low pressure system in the Plains on Monday
should be close enough, and moisture pooling should be adequate
for, rainfall to develop across the PAH forecast area, first in
the form of showers on Sunday night, then showers and tstms
Monday.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

VFR conditions this afternoon through 00z Wednesday. Front south
of the area will result in north winds 10-20 kts through sunset.
Winds will then diminish, northeast aob 6 kts. Tuesday morning
winds will veer around to the east up to 10 kts.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-082-
083.

MO...None.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for INZ081-082-
085>088.

KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....DB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
723 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

...Freeze Expected Tonight...

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 723 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Surface winds should veer to a more NNE direction through the
overnight hours with mostly clear skies. Any lingering clouds on
Tuesday should be Few-Sct around 3-4 K feet with steady NE winds.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Tuesday for KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.

IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

321 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DEEPER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN THE NIGHT THIS
WILL SET UP A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN OPEN
AREAS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND RIDGE TOPS IN THE HILLS...TO AS
LOW AS THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR WILL BE A FACTOR IN HOW COLD IT
GETS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING OF THE
CLEARING...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF ANOTHER FREEZE...SO HAVE
POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALL BUT A FEW COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE
ON AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS ON AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...
BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.

AN LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT TOWARD DAWN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. AT THIS POINT...SOME FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING SUB- FREEZING
READINGS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE COMMONWEALTH.
DEEP TROUGHING WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RECOVER
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 40S FOR MOST BY FRIDAY. SOME OF
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO FAVOR A DIURNALLY LIMITED TEMPERATURE REGIME FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW LIKELY REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER. BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
OR THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO THE BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK AS SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS LIKELY DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...PERHAPS LOWER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR
CEILINGS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JP/PG
AVIATION...SBH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

...Freeze Possible Monday Night...

A surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure across the TN
valley and southeast US while a 998 mb low pressure was across
western Wisconsin. Visible satellite imagery showed cloud free skies
thanks a rather dry air mass. ILN, BNA and ILX soundings all had
PWATs less than 0.3 inches this morning. South to southwesterly
winds were a bit gusty, but nothing compared to yesterday`s high
wind event. Observations showed gusts in the 15-30 mph range with
temperatures in the 50s.

Forecast focus is on a weak frontal passage tomorrow, followed by
another chance for a freeze Monday night. The aforementioned surface
low will drag a cold front through the forecast area tomorrow. This
system is very moisture limited, saturation is not deep at all and
has weak forcing. The very dry air initially will also work against
precipitation as well. As a result, kept chances in the 20-30
percent range, for mainly east of I-65 tomorrow. Plan on highs to
range from near 60 across southern Indiana to near 70 closer to the
TN border.

High pressure building south out of the Great Lakes Monday night
will bring lighter winds to the area, setting the stage for a
potential freeze for some locations, mainly north of the KY
parkways. The only limiting factor that could keep temperatures
above freezing is strato-cumulus clouds slow to dissipate across the
northern Bluegrass. Soundings from the NAM and RH fields from the
ECMWF hint at this possibility. If skies do clear out, then there`s
above average confidence for sub-freezing conditions. After
coordination with neighboring offices, will issue a Freeze Watch
for portions of the area, including all of southern Indiana and the
northern half of Kentucky counties. Forecast lows 28 to 31 in the
Freeze Watch area.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

The forecast highlights in the long term are precipitation chances
Wednesday/Wednesday night followed by an unseasonably cold period
late in the work week and next weekend.

The synoptic pattern Tuesday is expected to feature a somewhat
progressive upper level pattern with ridging through the central
Plains flanked by troughing over the eastern CONUS and intermountain
west. Surface high pressure, responsible for a rather chilly start
to the day, will be centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Plan on a
seasonably cool day, highs in the 50s, with mostly to partly sunny
skies.

The next storm system comes on Wednesday as a couple waves of low
pressure deepen and move toward the lower Great Lakes. Good moisture
transport, sufficient lift and some weak instability will bring
widespread rain showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two.
Compared to recent runs, this system has slowed down by 3-6 hours,
so the highest chances may come in the afternoon to evening hours.
Good consensus in the model guidance, so POPs were bumped up a bit
higher compared to the previous forecast. The surface front is
expected to come through during the evening or nighttime hours.

Upper level energy arrives during the day on Thursday. The colder
air aloft and forcing for ascent may bring scattered rain showers to
much of the area, so precipitation chances were brought up to near
40 percent. A steady feed of cold advection and passing waves could
cause the rain showers to mix with wet snow Thursday night across
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.

Friday into Friday night looks to be coldest of the period where a
hard freeze may materialize across the entire area. A model
consensus has lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, but this may be too
warm for some areas. Those with agricultural interests should
monitor this time frame closely.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As we sit squeezed between low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and
high pressure over Dixie we can expect brisk southwest winds,
occasionally gusty, this afternoon and tonight. Skies will be clear.

On Monday the Great Lakes low will scoot quickly through the
Northeast and pull its attendant cold front through Kentucky. This
front will switch winds initially to the west and then northwest,
and also will increase cloudiness. For now will keep ceilings low
end VFR, though there is some suggestion they could sink to high-end
MVFR. A light rain shower or two will be possible at SDF and LEX
around midday.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.

IN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

...Freeze Possible Monday Night...

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

The forecast highlights in the long term are precipitation chances
Wednesday/Wednesday night followed by an unseasonably cold period
late in the work week and next weekend.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As we sit squeezed between low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and
high pressure over Dixie we can expect brisk southwest winds,
occasionally gusty, this afternoon and tonight. Skies will be clear.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.

IN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

After an early morning freeze in parts of the region, a sunny and
mild day is expected today. Surface high pressure is centered
almost directly over western Kentucky early this morning. Even so,
winds have been slow to die off, which has kept temperatures above
freezing thus far. Soil temp is 55 degrees at Paducah, which is
probably a factor in the slow decoupling of the boundary layer. The
Freeze Warning may be cancelled a few hours early in some places,
namely the southern Pennyrile region of western KY. Elsewhere,
temps appear on track to fall below freezing in sw Indiana and se
Illinois. Dew points remain in the lower to mid 20s in most
places, which is likely too dry for much in the way of frost.

As the high moves to the east, winds will increase from the
southwest today. The Bufkit momentum transfer algorithm worked
very well with yesterdays wind gusts, so todays wind forecast
will be based on it. Both the nam and RAP Bufkit data indicate
gusts will peak around 30 mph this afternoon in most areas, except
20 to 25 mph in the Pennyrile region.

A second lesser concern is dew points, which tanked lower than
expected Saturday as drier air mixed down from several thousand
feet. Mixing heights will be lower today, but dew points will
likely fall below model guidance once again. This is mainly a fire
weather concern. The gusty winds, low rh values, and drying
fuels will create an elevated fire danger, which will be
addressed with the SPS /special weather statement/.

Tonight will be relatively mild as southwest winds stay up and
clouds start to increase ahead of a cold front. Lows will be
around 50.

A cold front will sink southward across our region on Monday
morning, accompanied by clouds and possibly a few sprinkles.
Moisture will be very limited, so the forecast will be kept dry.
Skies will become mainly sunny in the afternoon with increasing
north winds. There will be a fairly strong temp gradient Monday,
with highs ranging from around 60 along I-64 to around 70 along
the Tennessee border.

A light freeze is possible once again late Monday night. The
primary area of concern is again southwest Indiana and southeast
IL, possibly extending into northwest KY. Patchy frost will be
mentioned in that area, but low dew points and persistent wind
should once again be limiting factors for frost.

Tuesday will be mainly sunny, dry and cool as highs reach only
around 60. Low-level winds will again become southerly Tuesday
night as the next cold front approaches. There is a chance of
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms late at night, moving as far
southeast as the Lower Ohio Valley by Wed morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Forecast issues in the long term include chances for precipitation
that start Tuesday night and lasts through the end of the week.
Frost may also be possible in parts of the forecast area Friday
night.

A storm system will drop south out of the upper level ridge to the
west midweek. Models are in decent agreement showing there will be
enough moisture to include showers across much of the area beginning
Tuesday night and encompassing the entire region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Models show enough instability to include thunder
during the day Wednesday. While the bulk of the precipitation will
move east of the region Thursday, smaller, weaker disturbances will
keep a chance of precipitation in the far eastern/northeastern
counties through Friday.

Cool dry high pressure drops south across the region to end the week
with dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures with highs around
60. Frost may be possible across the I-64 corridor once again with
lows dipping down into the middle 30s. Temperatures begin a slow
warm up during the weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. South
southwest winds gusting up to 22 knots this afternoon will drop
off to AOB 12 knots after 00Z, then swing around to the northwest
AOB 12 knots with the passage of a cold front around 14-15Z.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

546 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH
GUIDANCE VARIES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TEMPS. SHARP NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WINDOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY PASS OFF TO THE EAST. FREEZING TEMPS
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH STRONG CAA.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES MAY NOT REACH THE UPPER 20S.
RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TO A RESPECTABLE 10 MPH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS THEN TIGHTEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. BUT GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES A SOLID CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL GENERAL BE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
INSTABILITY MONDAY. BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE THE NAM
TENDS TO OVER DO SFC BASED INSTABILITY. ALSO...THE GFS INSTABILITY
IS ONLY MARGINAL AT BEST. WITH DISAGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE STAYED
WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
PLEASANTLY COOL HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND NEAR NORMAL 60S FOR MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS WELL WITH STRONG
RETURN FLOW. EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR COOLER EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE DRY AIR AND AN EARLY NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE COLDER LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR
TWO MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. ALSO...WE MAY SEE NON-
DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT EVEN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY
DAWN MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

AN LINGERING PRECIPTATION SHOULD END BY LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT TOWARD DAWN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. AT THIS POINT...SOME FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING SUB- FREEZING
READINGS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING. STILL SEEING A FEW GUSTS
TO ABOUT 20 KTS BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER. OTHERWISE...
LOOKING AT A STEADY 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH
TIME...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP/PG
AVIATION...RAY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Tonight will be relatively mild as southwest winds stay up and
clouds start to increase ahead of a cold front. Lows will be
around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

High pressure moving across the region will lead to light winds
and clear skies this morning. Southwest winds will then pick up
by midday as the high slides off to the east. Expect gusts 20-30
KTS by afternoon.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-082-
083-087.

MO...None.
IN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for INZ081-082-
085>088.

KY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ014>022.

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...GM/MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

727 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE: TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS UP SOME
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. SFF ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES PASSING
WELL S OF THE COAST W/SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS VIRGA W/SOME FLURRIES BEING
REPORTED. STAYED W/THE LOW CHANCE POPS(20-30%) FOR SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION.

ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, SOME CLOUDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST
W/MOST OF THIS BEING MID AND HIGH CLOUD BASED. LAPS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOWED 85-90KT JET MOVING THROUGH THIS REGION FROM 500-300MBS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS COULD WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY AND CARIBOU REGION LATER THIS EVENING. INTERESTING ENOUGH
IS THAT THE NAM AND 18Z GFS SHOW A LOWER DECK SETTING UP AFTER 9
PM IN THE FAR NORTH W/BASES OF 2500-3500 FT. THE 12Z GEM WAS
SHOWING SOMETHING SIMILAR AS DID THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM
MODEL. DECIDED TO BOOST THE SKY PERCENTAGES SOME INTO LATE TONIGHT
BUT KEPT IT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTH AND WEST W/CLEARING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. LEFT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE
FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SFC WV OF LOW PRES THAT BROUGHT SRN AND CNTRL NEW ENG
UNSEASONAL SNFL WILL MOVE E WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA TNGT...TAKING
WHAT LEFT OF HI/MID CLDNSS BRUSHING DOWNEAST AREAS INTO ERLY EVE
SE OF THE REGION OVRNGT. OTHERWISE...CLR TO MCLR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT...WITH NRN PTNS OF THE FA SEEING
ENOUGH SLACKENING OF THE LLVL PRES GRAD FOR SFC WINDS TO DECOUPLE
OVR BROAD VLY LCTNS...WHILE MORE ELEVATED TRRN MAINTAINS A LGT
BREEZE. THIS ALG WITH VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR AND SOME REMNANT SN
PACK COULD RESULT IN A PARTIAL ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN OVR THESE
LCTNS...RESULTING IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS WITH COLDEST VLYS
PERHAPS ECLIPSING -10 DEG F. FURTHER S OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA...THE LLVL PRES GRAD WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
LIKELY NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF AS MUCH...PREVENTING AS
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING.

CONTD UNSEASONABLY COLD AND SOMEWHAT BRISK CONDITIONS ON TUE WITH
SOME CLDNSS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA AS A WEAK UPPER TROF/S-WV
FROM QB PROV CROSSES THIS PTN OF THE FA BY AFTN. WE DO MENTION
ISOLD SN SHWR POPS...BUT THE LLVL AIR MASS MAY BE TO DRY TO ALLOW
MUCH MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT FLURRIES.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MAINLY CLEAR AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT SNOW
TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING BUT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR UP ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THURSDAY. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME WIND
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY TO THE DOWN EAST COAST BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH POTENT LOW PRES PASSING JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUST S-SE WINDS TO THE AREA.
APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT SCA CRITERIA WILL BE EXCEEDED THRU FRI
NIGHT. BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVE WX PSBL LATER FRI AS THE FIRST LOW
MOVES NORTH AND COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NOVA SCOTIA. SECOND LOW
RUNS UP THE BNDRY SAT OR SUN AS UPR TROF LINGERS OVER ERN N
AMERICA, WITH DISAGREEMENT BTWN GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING.
REGARDLESS OF TIMING, EXPECTING SOME RIDGING MON AND MON NIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND DRIER WX. TEMPS WILL START THE LONG
TERM ABOVE NORMAL THX TO THE WARM S-SE FLOW, BUT QUICKLY DROP TO
OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD TO CONT ACROSS NRN TAF SITES TNGT INTO
TUE. LOWER VFR CLGS OVR DOWNEAST SITES INTO ERLY EVE WILL BECOME
UNLMTD OVRNGT AND THEN CONT INTO TUE.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ON THURSDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS...SPCLY WIND GUSTS...ARE XPCTD TO INCREASE BACK
TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE EVENING AND CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TUE.
THE COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF LGT FZG SPY LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORN. OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO
WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS IN THIS PTN OF THE FCST.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE LEVELS BY
THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:

SHORT TERM:
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING WITH ANY
ICE JAMS ALONG THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH RIVERS SPCLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TOWNS OF ALLAGASH AND ST FRANCIS. PLEASE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

618 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HRLY TEMPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS. SFC LOW
WAS LOCATED NR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AND WL CONTINUE TO MV EAST THIS
MRNG. LGT PCPN HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS FRYEBURG ME
WHICH GEM CONTS TO HV A GOOD HANDLE ON. NO CHGS NEEDED TO MRNG
POPS FOR TDA AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT COASTAL ZONES MAY SEE LGT
PCPN THIS MRNG. LATEST HRRR NOW LENDS CREDENCE TO A POTENTIAL
STREAMER SETTING UP ACRS THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTN SO WL MAKE NO
CHGS TO GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

INTENSIFYING LOPRES IS SITING OVR THE LONG ISLAND SOUND AS OF
07Z. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS EXIST JUST TO THE EAST SO EXPECTATION
IS THAT LOW WL LIKELY SKIRT ACRS CAPE COD THIS MRNG. STRONG S/WV
DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LIFT JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH AND
EAST WITH TIME ACCORDING TO THE PAST SVRL HRS OF WV AND IS
ENTERING NRN NJ. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SNOW ENTERING INTO
SRN VT/NH. 00Z GEM REGIONAL LOOKED TO HV THE BEST HANDLE ON QPF
AND SUGGEST THIS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST THIS MRNG,
THUS HV BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL EXPECTING ONLY MINOR
ACCUMS OF SNOW AS TEMPS AT THE SFC WL BE MARGINAL DRG THE EVENT.

COLD AIR WL DRAIN INTO CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH NEARLY STEADY
OR FALLING TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WL LKLY BE REACHED AT 12Z ACRS THE
NORTH WITH JUST A RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE FAR SOUTH. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTN, WINDS WL
INCREASE FM THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS TO AND ABV 40KTS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HV ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA BTWN 18Z TDA AND 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
ALREADY GUSTING TO 20KTS IN SRN QUEBEC AND LOPRES HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO INTENSIFY YET WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT LKLY GETTING STRONGER
DRG THE DAY.

LATEST GEM IS INDICATING STREAMERS DVLPNG DOWNWIND OF ST. LAWRENCE
THIS AFTN AND HV ADDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH TDA. NO
ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT WITH GEM PERSISTING THIS BAND THRU THE DAY
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD IN ACCUMS. HIRES-ARW IS THE ONLY
OTHER GUIDANCE INSISTING ON BANDING POTENTIAL.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX TO
AROUND 10KTS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WX EXPECTED. SKIES WL BEGIN
TO CLR OUT WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE NORTH
AND ARND 20 ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BRING A COLD DAY ON MONDAY. NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY. A SMALL LOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE IT WILL
BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD. OUR ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD THEN TURN TO RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW, TRACKING TO OUR
WEST, PULLS WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY HEAVY IN SOME AREAS AS THE LOW
REDEVELOPS NEARBY TO THE WEST. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER AIR WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. WITH MORE ENERGY CASCADING INTO THE TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
THE AREA WITH SOME SNOW ON SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS OUT OF THE NW WILL
GUST TO NEAR 40KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN LOWER TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY IFR LATE IN
THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THIS MORNING UNTIL 2 AM MON AS
STRONG NW WINDS GUST TO 40-45 KTS AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. EXPECT THAT SCA WILL BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING.

SHORT TERM: A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A SCA AND POSSIBLY A
GALE WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGH SEAS ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TO OUR WEST.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

736 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF OVER
THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
THERE IS A WEAK SHRTWV PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS...AND THE
COMBINATION OF SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME
MOISTENING OFF LK SUP OF VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 12Z YPL RAOB
/PWAT 0.06 INCH/...AND DAYTIME HEATING UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF IS
MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CLDS SOME ISOLD INSTABILITY SN SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE THE MOISTENING OFF THE LK IS MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE LLVL NNE FLOW TO THE SE OF HI PRES OVER MANITOBA.
AS IS COMMON IN THE SPRING WITH INCRSG SUN ANGLE THAT AMPLIFIES
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND...SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR OVER AND
NEAR LK SUP. WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -15C AND THE INSTABILITY SC...TEMPS
THIS AFTN ARE WELL BLO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 20S. BUT SKIES ARE
MOCLR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP OVER NW ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE
DRIER AIR. MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG WERE BLO ZERO AT MANY PLACES IN NW
ONTARIO AND AS LO AS -20F CLOSER TO THE HI CENTER. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE PAC NW CAUSED 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 150M IN THAT AREA.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON CLD/POPS TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTN...MIN TEMPS TNGT AND THEN POPS LATE ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE PAC NW.

LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN
OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVNG WITH LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/MORE ACYC FLOW AS WELL AS VERY DRY
UPSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD BRING CLRG THIS EVNG. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...MAINTAINED FCST MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. RETURN SLY FLOW OVERNT OVER THE
FAR W ON THE WRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES MAY LIMIT THE TEMP FALL IN
THAT AREA A BIT.

TUE...ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OFF MOSUNNY...EXPECT INCRSG CLDS
DOWNSTREAM OF AREA OF DVLPG WAA UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BTWN HI
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE
NRN PLAINS. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY CU/SC DVLPG OVER
ESPECIALLY THE E HALF WITH SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING SLY FLOW OFF
LK MI UNDER LINGERING AREA OF LOWER H85 TEMPS NEAR -12C AT NEWBERRY
AT 18Z. BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PCPN WL ARRIVE
OVER THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER TIMING
GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACCENTUATED BY DOWNSLOPE S WIND OVER
THE W. SINCE AFTN TEMPS WL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 30S/LO 40S OVER THE
W WITH DOWNSLOPE SLY FLOW...THE PTYPE WL BE SN MIXED WITH RA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

ATTENTION IS LARGELY ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC-
850MB LOW MOVES S OF THE AREA. WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE FAR W AND SCENTRAL) TO MOVE
IN LATE TUE...THEN SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN FAR SCENTRAL) IS FORCED
PRIMARILY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE N SIDE
OF THE LOW WED MORNING INTO WED AFTERNOON...WITH UPSLOPE
FORCING/PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO WED NIGHT.
LOOKING FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL EARLY WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN WED MORNING. OVERALL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF WET...HEAVY
SNOW. HAVE STORM TOTAL OF 3-5 INCHES OVER ALL BUT NCENTRAL UPPER MI
WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 6 INCHES. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY AS EVEN THE 6 INCH
AMOUNTS FALL OVER LONGER THAN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THE HEADLINES.

LIGHT N-NE WIND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTS THE FAR WRN CWA. AN UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF LES
WITH IT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18C...BUT DIFFER ON HOW
FAST TO BRING THE COLDER AIR IN. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT WIND
DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CHANGE WHERE THE LES FOCUSES. SHOULD SEE
RAMPED UP LES THU NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. ALSO SHOULD SEE SOME
AREA WIDE SNOWFALL...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH AND TRACK. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

WITH DRY HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. AS LOW PRES MOVES OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.
NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE AT KIWD WITH A
QUICK DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD...EXPECT
RAPID DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TUE EVENING AS SNOW ARRIVES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...S
WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT UNDER
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTEM DIVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE LO MOVES TO THE E OVER LOWER MI ON WED...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE AND REMAIN AS HI AS 25 TO 30 KTS. N WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL ON THU INTO SAT ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF HI PERS BUILDING TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

455 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN A RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPR
TROF OVER ERN CANADA/THE NE STATES. A CLIPPER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU NRN MN. THE DPVA AND INSENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/ AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX IN
SE CANADA OVERCAME SOME INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB AND RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WDSPRD SN OVER UPR MI. THE HEAVIEST SN
UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FELL IN A WNW TO ENE SWATH OVER THE CWA FM THE
KEWEENAW TO ESCANBA AND MANISTIQUE UNDER FAIRLY SHARP BUT SLOPED H75-
65 FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL OR PRES GRADIENT SHOWN ON
THE 285K ISENTROPIC SFC. NEGATIVE EPV IN THE H7-3 LYR AS SHOWN BY
THE 12Z NAM AND RELATED TO FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALLY HIER AMNTS. VERY DRY
AIR NOTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB LIMITED SN TOTALS OVER THE FAR SRN
CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
ARE MOVING NW-SE ACRS THE CWA...SO THE SN IS DIMINISHING NW-SE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID LVL DRYING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING RELATED TO THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS MORE
PRONOUCNED. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS PRESENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
ARCTIC HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C
AT YPL AND -24C AT CHURCHILL IN FAR NRN MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS TO THE
N OF THE LK IS ALSO RATHER DRY...WITH SFC DEWPTS WELL BLO ZERO.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON GOING WINTER WX
ADVYS/SN TOTALS AND THEN TRANSITION TO LK EFFECT SN TNGT INTO MON AS
THE COLDER AIR TO THE N FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS.

LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE PRONOUCNED DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV AND ANOTHER TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY TNGT...EARLIER EXIT OF
THE SHARPER H75-65 FGEN/NEGATIVE EPV BY 00Z AS WELL AS WARMING CLD
TOP TEMPS SUGGEST THE DIMINISING SN TRENDS WL CONTINUE. BUT ALLOWED
THE ADVYS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TO GO TO 00Z AS THIS AREA WL
BE UNDER AXIS OF LINGERING SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME HIER
H85-5 RH ON THE CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. AFTER THE STEADY SN/HIER
POPS EXIT EARLY THIS EVNG...UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL CAUSE THE SYNOPTIC
LIGHT SN TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. AS THIS
NE FLOW DRAGS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C TO -18C AND LINGERING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC EXITS...THE SYNOTPIC PCPN WL TRANSITION TO LES.
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/SOME LLVL CNVGC/INSTABILITY...
INFLUX OF DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

MON...ALTHOUGH CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -18C
RANGE WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES AND THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...ARRVIAL OF SFC HI PRES/ACYC LLVL FLOW
AS WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING WL CAUSE LES TO DIMINISH TO ISOLD SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY LLVL AIR WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF THESE SN SHOWERS. TEMPS WL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE CLDS LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E UNDER MORE
STUBBORN H85 THERMAL TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN NOAM RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL AND
ERN CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
PAC NW WILL BRING PCPN AND A SLIGHT WARM UP INTO THE NRN CONUS FROM
TUE THROUGH WED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SFC RIDGE
MOVE IN AND FRESH SNOWCOVER...EXPECT MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS INLAND. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST...MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 20.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA (300K ISENTROPIC LIFT) BRINGING SNOW INTO THE
WEST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY 06Z/WED.
CONSENSUS QPF IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE BY 12Z/WED WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF WEST SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 10/1.

WED...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNFICANTLY GREATER AS THE GFS/GEM SHOW
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV OVER THE
CWA COMPARED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WHICH DIGS THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITH A WEAKER SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...THERE IS HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WOULD LINGER. THE FCST
MAINTAINS LIKELY POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF...MAINLY JUST LIGHT
SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING S CNTRL
FOR A MIX WITH RAIN.

WED NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C BY 12Z THU WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER GEM/GFS. A TRAILING
CLIPPER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
BUT MAY CLIP THE FAR WEST THU. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL
ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR LES AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE BY 00Z/FRI. ENOUGH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS
TO AROUND -17C THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS FOR LES FAVORED BY
NRLY FLOW.

SAT-SUN...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND CONSISTENCY
LOWER AS THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH. LOWER END (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR WAA
AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

EXPECT STEADY SN AT CMX AND SAW TO TAPER OFF TO -SHSN BY LATER IN
THE AFTN...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD MVFR AT THOSE SITES BY
ABOUT 00Z. ALTHOUGH IWD HAS SEEN LIGHTER SN/BETTER CONDITIONS UP TO
VFR MOST OF THE TIME... BACKING WINDS TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE NNE
DIRECTION WL SEE A RETURN OF PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS. A GRDUAL INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR FM THE NE LATER TNGT AND MON WL RESULT IN A TRANSITION
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND AT
SAW HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SRLY
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT WITH NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE LOW WED
INTO WED NIGHT. NRLY WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003>007-013-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON GOING WINTER WX
ADVYS/SN TOTALS AND THEN TRANSITION TO LK EFFECT SN TNGT INTO MON AS
THE COLDER AIR TO THE N FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF UPPER MI TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF CANADA WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS TIME. THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE
DEPARTED...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WITH THE INCREASED INSOLATION FROM THE EARLY
APRIL SUN AND MIXING HEIGHTS OF 6KFT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT...QUITE A COMPLICATED TEMP FORECAST AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN CWA AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS WI. WHERE PLACES CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL...TEMPS COULD FALL TO OR EVEN BELOW ZERO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD.
A BROAD SHIELD OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY OVERCOME A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND SPREAD SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON WED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PHASING OF THE
CLIPPER WITH THE LEAD TROUGH...LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
INSTEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW.

THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. ALONG THE WI AND SOUTH CENTRAL...THE LOW-
LEVELS BECOME ISOTHERMAL AT OR JUST ABOVE 0C LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...SO THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY WET. OVERALL...A VERY
WET 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. BY THU...THE TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM GLANCES THE FAR
WEST CWA WHILE LES DEVELOPS FOR THE N TO NE WIND SNOW BELTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LES GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND TEMPS BECOME NON-SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE-
INDUCED CONVECTION. WAA RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

NO GALES SEEN IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 30 KNOTS.
WARM ENOUGH ALSO THAT FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH MANY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING BY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003>007-013-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

300 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IMPACT CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW LOOK LIKELY FOR MID WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL MENTION REDUCED IMPACTS AS
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL LOWER MI. THAT SAID...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP AND THE H850
WARM SURGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS
UNDERWHELMING WITH THIS EVENT...COULD SEE ENOUGH WINTRY MIX OR
JUST SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER COINCIDENT WITH FALLING
SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR SOME
POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS TONIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE I WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED
CANCELING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER THE ADVISORY.

COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-96 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER. I DON`T SEE MUCH MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS IN TERMS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW A
NARROW LINE OF MODEST CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS
REGION TONIGHT. I LEFT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WE ARE SQUARELY IN CAA ONCE AGAIN AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE HURON FOR A TIME. IF WINDS ARE CLOSER
TO DUE NORTH THEN THIS WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NEAR/SOUTH OF I-96. NORTH OF THERE...TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT
SUN APR 3 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-96.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR PCPN TO FALL AS ALL
SNOW THAT AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
RELATIVELY HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT RANGE ARE MOST PROBABLE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MKG TO ALMA.

PCPN WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME LIGHTER MIXED PCPN MAY LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FCST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG BUT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
KMKG.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION MAY
MIX WITH SNOW THIS EVENING AT OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KMKG... KGRR
AND KLAN). PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOW CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH WINDS STAYING OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 10-20 KTS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

SCA CONTINUES THROUGH LATER MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES. THE CHOPPIEST
CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT OUT ON THE
LAKE AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE
RAPIDS. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THOUGH
LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL... MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-051-052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844-845.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846-847.

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

132 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...

A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
SPREAD AN ARM OF SNOW OVER SE MICHIGAN TERMINALS MAINLY PTK NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A SHARP WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND CARRY ENOUGH WARM AIR TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TYPE INTO QUESTION AT PTK AND FNT. THIS SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WARMS ABOVE FREEZING DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MBS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR IN ALL SNOW BUT WILL BE VERY
SENSITIVE TO NARROW BAND ALIGNMENT AND PRECISE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE WHILE
TAPERING DOWN TO JUST AN INCH OR TWO FNT AND A WET COATING AT PTK.
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CEILING AND GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION ENDS.
COOLER NORTH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND HELP LIFT
CEILING TOWARD VFR BY NOON.

FOR DTW... HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF DTW
DURING AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR IT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURE WARMS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THAT LEAVES WIND AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL OR JUST TO
THE NORTH. WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS DUE
TO PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TRACK. A BURST OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRIALING COLD FRONT WHICH COULD MIX WITH SNOW
LATE EVENING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS DURING AFTERNOON. HIGH TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR ALL RAIN PRECIP TYPE DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOW FOR CROSS WIND THRESHOLD AS WIND TURNS FROM 340 OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1222 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

UPDATE...

HAVE SEEN NO COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORY CONFIGURATION SO FAR. TIGHT SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
DUE TO STRONG THETA-E ADJECTION INTO THE AREA WITH LIMIT WARNING
CRITERION SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL TO THE HURON COUNTY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TUSCOLA/SANILAC. LIKEWISE...ADVISORY WORTHY
SNOW IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF COUNTIES UNDER ADVISORIES. SNOWFALL FALLS OFF TO 1 OR 2 INCHES
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF
M-59. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA...LARGELY DUE
TO THE STRONG PUSH OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OR
2/3 OF THE CWA.

DID PULL FORWARD THE BEGINNING OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BY A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FGEN BANDING IS COMING TOGETHER
PRETTY QUICKLY AND WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO TAKE LONG TO SATURATE
A NARROW DRY LAYER THAT WAS EVIDENT ON KDTX 12Z RAOB BETWEEN ABOUT
800-725 MB. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND GUSTS HIGHER DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING PERIOD AS IT APPEARS A DECENT PUSH OF WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...SOUTH OF I-94...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL
FOLLOW TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST WINDS FURTHER IF NEEDED.
IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WHERE
WINDS GUSTS REACH OR TOP 30 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

DISCUSSION...

NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 03.00Z
ITERATIONS...HAVE REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG A
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO DETROIT BETWEEN 03-06Z. EQUALLY CONSISTENT HAS
BEEN THE TRAJECTORY AND GLIDE SLOPE OF THE INBOUND ACTIVE
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE LEAD ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 850-700MB AXIS
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TRI CITIES/SAGINAW BAY REGION BETWEEN 15-
18Z...THEN LINING OUT DIRECTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB BETWEEN 18-
21Z. THE GOVERNING DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRANSITION
DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO VERY AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT
RISES/RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL RESULT IN A VERY COMPACT...PRISTINE LOW LEVEL THETA
E RIDGE ROCKING DIRECTLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN WHICH CAUSES A
FRONTAL WAVE PIVOT. THE NET RESULT IS THE FORCING TO SHIFT TO VERY
EFFICENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 21-06Z TONIGHT WITH
SOME SEMBLANCES OF DEFORMATION HOLDING ON BETWEEN 06-09Z. THE AREA
WILL AGAIN BE IN A LOW STATIC STABILITY ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...THIS
TIME THERE WILL BE STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH IN THE 900-800MB LAYER AND
IN THE 600-500MB LAYER WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL INVERSION
IN BETWEEN.

THE OVERALL NARRATIVE IS A CLASSIC SPRING TIME FRONTOGENESIS SNOW
EVENT. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH AN
EXTREMELY SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THIS VANTAGE POINT IS EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND
WILL LINE OUT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN GOOD...SUGGESTING THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FROM SAGINAW BAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN THUMB COUNTIES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE...MOST
NOTABLY THE ECMWF (LOW AMOUNTS) WHICH IS COMPLETELY ON ITS OWN
ISLAND...THE HIRES ARW/NMM (VERY HIGH AMOUNTS)...AND THE RAP WHICH
IS A LITTLE NORTH. GIVEN THE COMPACT GRADIENTS INVOLVED AND THE
TIGHT MARGINS...A SHIFT OF 30 MILES WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE
AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE
70 OR 80 PERCENT MARK TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR HURON/TUSCOLA/SANILAC COUNTIES. IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FOR THOSE COUNTIES
WITH 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A 9 HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUSCOLA AND SANILAC WILL LIKELY SEE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTIES. FOR THE COUNTIES
ADJACENT/SOUTH...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT LOOKING AT MORE OF THE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE. AGAIN...HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL BE IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. WILL ALSO ADD...THAT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THERMAL STRUCTURE...CONFIDENCE
ON LIKLIHOOD/PLACEMENT/EXACT TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN IS LOW ATTM.
HOWEVER FLOW DIRECTIONS COULD BE VEERED JUST ENOUGH IN/AROUND FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO AUGMENT NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
DEPTHS...DID INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR PORTIONS OF ST
CLAIR/LAPEER COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING.

AS FOR WIND...RELATIVELY SPEAKING THE THOUGHT IS THAT WIND WILL NOT
BE A HUGE DEAL HERE BECAUSE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THE SURFACE LOW WERE TO TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH...COULD HAVE SOME WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
SNEAK IN SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR/DETROIT. THE OTHER ITEM IS SOME POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 02-7Z
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I 96. THIS IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST WITH
LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER ATTM. THERE IS SOME VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT IN SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SHOCKINGLY...AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
BRING SOME LOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO THE SAGINAW BAY REGION
MONDAY. A FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING UNDER THE ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL YIELD
VERY COLD MIN TEMPERATURES. ATTM..THE FORECAST WILL READ IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BE COLDER IN THE THUMB OVER FRESH SNOWPACK.

RETURN FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR LEAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT HIGH IN COLUMN WHICH BRINGS SOME SATURATION QUESTIONS. IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY IS ON THE HORIZON FOR
THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A TRANSIENT SYSTEM MOTION. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT...CYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES
BRINGING NUMEROUS/LIKELY POPS TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN IN TIME FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON PRECIPATION TYPE AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

MARINE...

A PORTION OF THE EXISTING GALE WARNINGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM PORT
AUSTIN DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HURON BASIN. WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE
REGION. THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN
CONTINUES LATER TODAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL START OFF ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION BUT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE DUE TO THE
STORM TRACK. WIND FIELD NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
APPEARS TO KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND WAVES
BUILDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.

HYDROLOGY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POTENT
THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IN TERMS OF MORE MOISTURE TO WORK...AROUND
0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ALONG AND NORTH OF
M59...AND BETTER ORGANIZED BAND OF FORCING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE PRECIPITATION HENCE THE WIDER RANGE
TO THE TOTALS. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ENTIRELY AS SNOW NORTH OF M59...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST OF THE WATER IN
THE SNOWPACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOULD MELT MID WEEK
RELEASING THE WATER INTO THE WATERWAYS.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ047-048-053-
062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1222 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 616 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

QUIET START TO THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE
LEAD FLANK OF PRECIPITATION NOSES INTO MID MICHIGAN. THE TRACK OF
THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO PTYPE CONCERNS. MBS
WILL STAY IN THE COLD AIR RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH FNT AND PTK IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY. THE DETROIT AREA TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO PTYPE...CIGS WILL BE MVFR/IFR DURING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IFR STRATUS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. VSBYS WILL BE SENSITIVE TO PRECIPITATION
RATES...DROPPING TO LIFR FOR MBS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS EVENING
AND IFR FOR FNT. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT
AND SNOW BAND SET UP.

FOR DTW... WILL BE DEALING WITH VEERING WINDS TODAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES NEARLY OVER HEAD THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT COOLER AIR
STREAMING IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING... MEDIUM BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ047-048-053-
062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

616 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING... MEDIUM BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ047-048-053-062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ441>443-462>464.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.MARINE...

.HYDROLOGY...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

A STEADY WEAKENING IN THE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL THEN DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT
AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD WNW. THE NEXT MAJOR AVIATION IMPACT WILL
BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
MORE STEADY SNOW TO MBS AND POSSIBLY FNT. CIGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AT
MBS...WITH LESSOR CHANCES AT FNT.

FOR DTW... A DECREASING GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL THEN SUPPORT
STEADILY LOWERING WIND SPEEDS...WITH WINDS BACKING TOWARD THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW SUN/SUN NIGHT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF METRO.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MEDIUM SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM FOR PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ047-048-053-062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ441>443-462>464.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

140 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

WILL REMOVE ALL OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TONIGHT...BRINGING
THEM BACK AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING HAS REALLY DIMINISHED THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAMP
UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT /1-2"/. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BLOW THE SNOW AROUND...SO AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY AT
TIMES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /1-3"/. ALSO TWEAKED THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING...AS LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BRINGS
SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA QUICKLY AFTER 12Z FROM WEST-EAST.

SORT OF A HEADLINE MESS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WE END ONE
EVENT...HAVE LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT...THEN BRING BACK WIDESPREAD
WAA SNOW ON SUNDAY. I DON/T FORESEE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORY. BUT WILL BE EVALUATING THAT THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

SNOWY EARLY APRIL DAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD MID LVL TEMPS REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WILL BE CENTERED ON LINGERING EVENING SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AND THE TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW...AND CURRENT HEADLINES.

THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AND DROPPING SOUTH OF SAGINAW BAY.
CORRESPONDING 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WITH
THE EXITING BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z.
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL OVER NRN MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE TRANSITION
TO LAKE INDUCED SNOWFALL IS ALREADY QUICKLY BECOMING EVIDENT...AS
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE BANDS BEGIN TO SHOW ON RADAR. 850MB TEMPS COOL
FROM EARLIER READINGS OF -8C TO -13C THIS EVENING AND FINALLY TO
-16C OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL TEMP
AND MSTR PROFILES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 6500FT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE MOST WELL
ORGANIZED AND DOMINATE LAKE BANDS OCCURRING AFTER 03Z...LIMITED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BY SOLAR DISRUPTIONS AND UN-ORGANIZED
925-850MB WINDS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

OVERALL WILL DIMINISH SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS
SYNOPTIC FORCING DWINDLES...AND REMOVE HEADLINE FROM SAGINAW BAY
AREA. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE HEADLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR
TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELT REGIONS AS NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT BEGINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

SUNDAY...WILL BE BLANKETING N LOWER WITH AN ADVISORY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT QUITE ALL TOGETHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
NAM THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW, THE GFS A
LITTLE MORE NORTH ALONG M-55, BUT WITH PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GETTING ENOUGH SNOW TO ADVISORY CRITERIA (>3"), AND THE ECMWF WITH
AN AXIS THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS TO ABOUT HARRISVILLE. THE
MIDDLE GROUND ON THIS WAS THE HI-RES ARW MODEL. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH GRR AND DTX, LOOKS LIKE A 4-6" AMOUNT FOR THE 24 HOURS OF 12Z
TO 12Z AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NEAR M-55, AND 3-5" IN THE
NORTH AREAS, EVEN UP TO NEAR THE BRIDGE. WON`T BE SURPRISED IF
PORTIONS OF THIS, DEPENDING ON THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND SIGNALS FOR
F-GEN BANDING THAT SOMEONE ENDS UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SNOW MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER VEER NE OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS AS MENTIONED BEFORE USUALLY IS A DRY, COLD FLOW AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT CLEARS OUT UPSTREAM SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT
MONDAY COULD BE A CHILLY START IN THE SOO, AND POSSIBLY NE LOWER
AS THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST BRIEFLY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK N AND THEN NW. THE 850-700 MB
LAYER RH IS FAIRLY DRY UPSTREAM, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY (850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C)THERE WILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP IN NW LOWER. SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
IN NW LOWER. THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND SW OVERNIGHT, WITH RAPID
DRYING SO THAT ANYTHING STILL GOING SHOULD SHUT OFF, AS WELL AS
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z.

TUESDAY...THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WE WARM UP WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INVADING THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...NEXT UPPER TROF WILL CROSS NORTHERN
MI WED NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKES REGION WED. NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS JOGGED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
LOW...A TREND THAT SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPS ON WED AND PRECIP FALLING
MORE AS SNOW AND LESS AS A MIX. WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES...CERTAINLY STILL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

ARCTIC SHORTWAVE DIVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THU NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PLUNGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE
EFFECT. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE SOME 15-20F BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...PERHAPS REBOUNDING AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MVFR/VFR CIGS/VIS WILL QUICKLY TREND TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS HEADING
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD SNOW SPREADS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1. SOLAR INSOLATION
WILL HELP THE MELTING PROCESS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOWS WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
SNOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING
THE WEEKEND...AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WHILE A SECOND SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF THEN NORTHERN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS WITH GALES IN
THE ERN STRAITS. WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING...
BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ019>022-025>028-031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345-346-349.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321-322.

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JZ/JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SWR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

355 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER SW WISCONSIN..WITH ACCOMPANYING
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE..WILL
RAPIDLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. IN ITS
WAKE..N/NE WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT CLEAN..WITH LOTS OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS..AND ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LONG OVER- LAKE
FETCHES. HOWEVER..THE MAIN STRONG FGEN BAND OF SNOW THAT PRODUCED
A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER
REGION TODAY HAS WEAKENED..AND THE ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM.

ONSHORE NE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT..BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY. AS A
RESULT..AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG THE MN NORTH SHORE..AND FROM THE TWIN PORTS REGION EASTWARD
TO THE ASHLAND AREA. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS..BUT SOME OF THE AREAS THAT SEE THE MORE PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO
LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A CENTER AROUND
1000MB. THE MODELS TRACK THIS LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH 925-850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO THROUGH
TUESDAY OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES. WE TRENDED COLDER
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING BECOMES A
FACTOR. WE HAVE MORE SNOW FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
ACCUMULATION OF A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. MORE PRECISE
AMOUNTS WILL BE A SHORTER TERM FORECAST ISSUE ONCE WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST WAVE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...COLDER AIR...WITH 850MB
TEMPS -10C TO -16C...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT
COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR A POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER THIRTIES TO
AROUND FORTY...BUT WARM A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST AREAS OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WAS LIMITED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE FAR NORTH...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE AT MOST TAF SITES AND
HAVE SOME TEMPO WORDING IN. THE RAP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
BRINGING LOW CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BEEN OVERDONE...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING WEST/SOUTH
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THESE CEILINGS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF.

AN INCREASE TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING LONGER AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 33 22 35 / 40 50 10 80
INL 12 34 17 39 / 10 0 0 70
BRD 23 43 28 45 / 10 0 0 70
HYR 19 39 22 38 / 20 10 10 80
ASX 19 32 21 39 / 40 40 10 70

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>147.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ148.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1246 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

S/W TROF AXIS IN THE MID LEVELS IS JUST NOW ENTERING NW
MINNESOTA..WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR BRAINERD AT 10
AM. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND EVEN VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE DULUTH
CWA..THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STARTED OUT QUITE FAR FROM
SATURATION..WHICH IS ACTING TO SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEDING INTO THIS WAVE FROM
THE WARM SECTOR /PER THE 12Z KMPX SOUNDING/ AND WEAK STABILITY
ARE RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERY PRECIP IN MOST AREAS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER SATURATION ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER /PER 12Z KINL SOUNDING/..WHERE LARGE SCALE
LIFT IS ALSO BEING LOCALLY ENHANCED BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
FORCING IN THE 850-600 MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY..THIS IS THE
AREA WHERE WE HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT BANDING OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP ALL MORNING..WITH A 3.8 INCH SNOW REPORT FROM GOLDEN EAGLE
LODGE ON THE GUNFLINT TRAIL IN INTERIOR COOK COUNTY.

WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON..AND IS SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD IS
THE ONLY PLACE WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED
SNOWFALL..PER THE REASONING ABOVE. WHILE EASTERLY ON SHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH SHORE..AND SOME SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE..THE OVERALL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE..WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20-40 POPS
FOR A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS..WHICH WILL LIKELY ALSO
CONTAIN SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

AT 4 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 10 ABOVE AT THE GRAND MARAIS
AIRPORT TO 30 IN HINCKLEY AND SIREN. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO THICKEN
AND INCREASE FROM THE WEST...AS LOCAL RADARS INDICATED INCREASING
RETURNS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO SURFACE
REFLECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES HAVE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HEAD OF THE LAKES REGION.

FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...TO NEAR ROCHESTER BY 18Z...AND MILWAUKEE BY 00Z MONDAY. A
SWATH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MN...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THERE IS A BIT
OF CONCERN REGARDING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE CONVECTIVE LOOK OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR FAIRLY QUICKLY. STRONG WAA AND FGEN...
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
THINK THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE...TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
TWO OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY SNOW BANDS DO DEVELOP.

MONDAY...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS. THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND IS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM CENTER ON TWO PASSING AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION AND TYPE.

A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN STARTS OFF THE LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM NEAR
TWO HARBORS TO NEAR GRAND PORTAGE. WITH THE SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
AND EXPECTED WIND SHEAR...SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY.
CONTINUED THE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT IN FAVORED AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

THE RIDGE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG PV ANOMALY
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN 24 TO 36 HOUR
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. WARM AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO
POINT TOWARD MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...HOWEVER SEVERAL INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EAST ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY SEE TEMPS COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY SNOW. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN DETERMINING
FACTORS FOR HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. IF PRECIP IS LOCALLY HEAVY...AND
FOR AREAS WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN USHERING IN A
RETURN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH SHORE. A WEAK
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

THE GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF.

AN INCREASE TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING LONGER AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 20 33 22 / 40 40 50 10
INL 31 12 34 17 / 60 10 0 0
BRD 46 23 43 28 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 41 19 39 22 / 30 20 10 10
ASX 33 19 32 21 / 70 40 40 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
020-021.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>147.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ148.

AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

1244 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND HAS BEEN DRIVING
LINGERING BKN/OVC CUMULUS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET...ACCELERATING THE CLEARING TREND AND PERHAPS GIVING
PEOPLE A CHANCE TO VIEW A POSSIBLE AURORA DUE TO A GEOMAGNETIC
STORM IN PROGRESS AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS.

HOWEVER...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA. THE
CLIPPER WILL DIVE OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN PASS THROUGH SE NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EARLY SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND NEARBY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...REACH MAX
INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE EXACTLY THE BAND WILL SET UP...AND HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
FALL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MODEL TREND WAS TO SHIFT THE BAND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUNS. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH...EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT TO RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS
ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. CONCERNED ABOUT THE AGGRESSIVE
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL...WHICH DEPICTS MUCH GREATER AND FOCUSED
PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS. MAY NEED TO REFINE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS AS
THE RAP AND HRRR COME INTO PLAY AND OFFER A MEANS TO BETTER
ESTIMATE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND.

OTHERWISE...BACKING WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...BUT PARTS OF
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND BE ABLE TO WARM UP MUCH
MORE SO THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY CUT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC LIFT TO RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AREA
SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -10C OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AREA TO -18C
NORTHEAST AT 12Z MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL SHOW A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE
NAM SUPPORTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF. SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...AND WE
1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE NORTH SHORE TO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AS BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS ON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH MONDAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
NORTHLAND DRY.

A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WEAKER QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT THE RESULT
WILL BE THE SAME ON THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
WE TRENDED A BIT COLDER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE MORE OF A
MIX TUESDAY AND SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW SOONER TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM 30 TO 40 FOR MOST AREAS WITH MID
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK TO 30 TO 40 THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS OF 05Z. A BAND OF
SNOW WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MOVE IN AFTER
08Z TONIGHT. KINL...KHIB AND KDLH TO BE MOST STRONGLY AFFECTED
WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS FOR NOW AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END FOR EACH SITE...MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. KBRD AND KHYR
WILL ALMOST MISS OUT ON THIS WAVE...WITH THE BETTER SATURATION AND
LIFT NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS. KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...WHEN THEY MAY GET SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND HAVE LEFT THESE OUT
FOR NOW. KHYR IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND AND HAVE
PUT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WHEN IT IS
CLOSEST...WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL. A SURGE OF COLD
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO IFR
AFTER 00Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 21 30 21 31 / 30 30 50 50
INL 16 31 13 31 / 70 80 30 0
BRD 23 43 25 41 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 17 39 21 35 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 18 31 21 31 / 60 60 60 40

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-020-021.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

626 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE LOCKED ON 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY.
UPPER 60S ARE COMPUTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WRN SANDHILLS. THE
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
FAVOR THE WARMER RAP MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS MT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERHAPS SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. NONE OF
THE MODEL DATA IN THE NAM OR RAP INDICATE ANY TSTM POTENTIAL SO
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BE THE OPERATIVE MODE. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD END THIS EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BACK PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE STRATUS MAY FORM ON THE FRONT. THE SREF SAYS
NO. THE GFS...ECM AND NAM SAY MAYBE. LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARILY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MAINLY A DRY FORECAST. A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
TUESDAY...PROVIDING FOR EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AND WARM AIRMASS TO PROMOTE SEVERAL
PERIODS WHERE LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY WEEK...THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF
A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE. THERMAL ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE 60S. WINDS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AS A NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SFC TROUGH
DEEPENS...BUT PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 20 MPH RANGE. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO KEEP MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING FIRE HEADLINES MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTORM
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA/LLJ. IF QPF
IS REALIZED...IT/LL BE LIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF
A NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. THE FRONTAL TIMING ALTHOUGH DURING THE
MIDDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE TROUGH...PROMOTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
THUS TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...LOWER 60S SHOULD PREVAIL AS CAA SPILLS BEHIND THE
ADVANCING FRONT. THE SHADING FROM THE CLOUDS...AND THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CREATE DOUBTS ON WHETHER A FIRE HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED. SO WILL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND GUSTS 0F 30-40 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHILE RH LOWERS TO THE 15-25% RANGE.
THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LACKS DEEP
MOISTURE...THUS RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...AND IF RAIN IS REALIZED...ONLY A
FEW HUNDRETHS QPF WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY SO ISOLATED DRY THUNDER IS NOT RULED
OUT.

WEDNESDAY...CAA WILL PUSH HIGHS DOWN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM
RH IS PROGGED TO FALL TO NEAR 20% ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...PROMOTING LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED HIGH BASED LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY.

AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST MOVES EAST TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BACK INTO NCNTL NEB. THE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH... GUSTING TO 40
MPH ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
SOUTH...25 PERCENT NORTH. WINDS SLACKEN AT SUNSET.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BACK PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE STRATUS MAY FORM ON THE FRONT. THE SREF SAYS
NO. THE GFS...ECM AND NAM SAY MAYBE. LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

MONDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTORM
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA/LLJ. IF QPF
IS REALIZED...IT/LL BE LIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...HOWEVER A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL MORNING WHEN
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUST AROUND 30 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER EXPECTED ONCE THE SUN SETS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1226 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

INCREASED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS UPDATE. ALSO EXPANDED STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES...BASED ON LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL RUN. THIS PROMPTED THE ADDITION OF GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THIS EVENING.

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AT NOON
THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY NEAR JAMESTOWN TO WASHBURN/HAZEN TO NEAR
STANLEY/TIOGA. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE 50S/60S. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SAG SOUTHWARD JUST A BIT
MORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. A TRICKY
TEMP/RH/WIND FORECAST TODAY MAINLY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL MONITOR WIND AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS GRANT AND SIOUX
COUNTIES SHOULD AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING BECOME
NECESSARY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 09-12 UTC EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

SOME LIGHT ECHOS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS PUSHING TOWARDS
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVING THROUGH. A LIGHT SHOWER WAS REPORTED AT REGINA...BUT
QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL HIT THE GROUND OVER OUR AREA WITH THE
DRIER ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCES NORTH...BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS
TO BE SPREAD OUT A LITTLE MORE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...998MB NEAR BOWBELLS NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH WILLISTON CURRENTLY AT
56F AND MINOT AT 57F...WILL COME TO A HALT AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHILE BEHIND THE LOW A POTENTIAL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS
SEEN PER CANADIAN RADAR LOOP. GROUND TRUTH ESTIMATES EARLIER
SHOWED A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT THE AREA IS DWINDLING WITH TIME AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER MENTION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
SEE THIS AS VIRGA THAN ACTUAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SOUTHWEST TODAY WEST OF MISSOURI RIVER...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION/NORTHWEST
WINDS IN A WELL MIXED/DRY ADIABATIC LAYER WILL LEAD TO WINDS OF
20 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH...TO THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE SLIDES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY FOR A DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST...50S
CENTRAL AND AROUND 40F IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND CLOSES
OFF AS IT MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WARMER AIR ALOFT
LIFTS IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SPREADING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH INITIAL PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
ADDED SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING. LATE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TOWARDS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY...THEN STARTS TO SHIFT
TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER...AND RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST AND
COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE BACKSIDE. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA WHERE GREATEST WARMING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY SLOT. THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIRMASS WORKS
IN.

SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS
QUICK TO MAKE ITS APPROACH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS IT
DIVES THROUGH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. QUIETER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

HAVE ADDED GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATED HIGHER WINDS
AND LOWER RH VALUES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING:

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 20
PERCENT...COINCIDING WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FOR AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE
HOURS...WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC
FIRE WEATHER...JV/KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1222 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SURFACE LOW NOW ACROSS WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOP. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
18Z SUNDAY AND REMAIN NORTH OF AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
12Z-18Z SUNDAY. CANADIAN MOSAIC RADARS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH GROUND TRUTH OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS THUS FAR.
THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PRECIPITATION REACHING WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AT THE PRESENT MOMENT. THE
REST OF THE MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE GFS. WILL LET THE CURRENT
FORECAST STAND AND LOOK AT IT FURTHER OVERNIGHT.

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. PRELIMINARY GRID
POPULATION OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR FOR HOURLY/MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...AND THE MET/MAV WIND GUIDANCE...SUPPORT A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LOOK CLOSER BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
DECISION...BUT LEANING TOWARDS UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN OUR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES. BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE...TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.
WE`LL SEE IF THIS IS ENOUGH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. DO
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THIS FLOW MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR NORTH TOWARD 12 UTC. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THIS DRY THROUGH 12 UTC AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR AS SOME MESO-SCALE MODELS BRING THE PRECIP INTO ND A
LITTLE BEFORE 12Z. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DID LOWER SKY
COVER THIS EVENING AND UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GLOBAL...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION ITERATIONS THROUGH THEIR 18 UTC RUNS WAS UTILIZED FOR
NEARLY ALL FIELDS.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS A CLIPPER IN EASTERN
ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR FOR
POSSIBLE NORTHERN LIGHTS VIEWING TONIGHT IN LIGHT OF INCREASED
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

A MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT ON A WAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY CLOSING OFF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A WINTRY MIX NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LEADING
PRECIPITATION BAND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
ATOP SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
CENTRAL IN THE DRY SLOT WITH THE COLD POCKET ALOFT. WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KMOT...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 23Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18KT AND 32KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FROM MID MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF
AROUND 35 MPH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT ARE PROJECTED FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS.
TIMEFRAME IS MAINLY MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

COUNTIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INCLUDE GOLDEN VALLEY...
BILLINGS...SLOPE...BOWMAN... STARK...HETTINGER...AND ADAMS
COUNTIES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

211 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS THE DEEP LOW TRACKS EAST
AND THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD IN. WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO TRACK INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
BUT HAVE DROPPED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE. STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY THRU LATE EVENING. BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SRN OHIO.
THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THRU LATE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. STRONG
CAA WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED
FREEZE WARNING WHERE IN COUNTIES FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH. JUST TO THE WEST THERE HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. EXPECTING THESE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO SLOWLY MAKE THERE WAY INTO OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LAPSE RATES
ACTUALLY REMAIN RATHER STEEP EVEN AS THE SUN SETS DUE TO THE
STRONG CAA. ALSO LOOKED AT THE 1.5 PV SURFACE ON THE RAP AND IT
SHOWS THE 1.5 SURFACE DOWN TO 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT ON THE GRADIENT. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUITE.
HAVE ALSO KEPT A WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR A BIT AFTER THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AS SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FALL. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING START OFF
COLD NEAR MINUS 10... BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL KICK IN WITH 850 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO 8
OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALSO ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE FROM AROUND 1270 M IN THE MORNING TO 1330 M BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULARY
DIFFICULT BUT HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON VALUES OF
THE 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

SUNDAY EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIP FORMING
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
STARTING PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR 3Z AND PUSHING ALL
PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. PWATS WITH THE LOW ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE AROUND 0.85"... VIA NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS... WITH
WEAK TO MODEST OMEGA VALUES. THE WEAKER OMEGA VALUES AREN`T
SURPRISING AS EVEN THOUGH WAA IS STRONG AT THE TIME VORTICITY
ADVECTION IS NEUTRAL TO ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. MONDAY
AFTERNOON PVA STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SO DOES STRONG CAA
SO OMEGA VALUES ARE VERY WEAK WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THE
CANCELING OF THE LIFT. MONDAY EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALLOWING THE AREA TO FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH QUIET/COOL WEATHER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MUCH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY
WILL BE SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN IN FAVORED DRAINAGE
AREAS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL OHIO NEAREST THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK
TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 40S ON TUESDAY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG S/W TROUGH TO
DIG INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AFTN SENDING ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT NOW LOOKS WEAK-
MODERATE SO THUNDER POTENTIAL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT RAIN DOES LOOK LIKELY.

BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AMIDST STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL SET UP YET ANOTHER LIKELY
ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING INTO -8C TO -10C. IT`S A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD GIVEN
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW...LIKELY SOME INSTBY-DRIVEN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS
COULD BE SNOW FRIDAY SO RUNNING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AS
TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AT PEAK HEATING AND IN THE 30S
MORNINGS/EVENINGS.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR THE
NORTHEAST TERMINALS WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
RETURN FLOW AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS BY 18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODEST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH
SOME DIURNAL COOLING...GUSTINESS WILL BE ERRATIC...BUT WITH GUSTS
IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH MODELS FORECASTING
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. THIS
WILL BRING NON CONVECTIVE LLWS TO THE TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT THE FRONT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED AHEAD OF IT THAT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH A PASSING SHOWER. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-051>055-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

906 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH AND SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NUDGED
WINDS CLOSER TO THE HRRR BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 53 81 52 72 / 0 0 20 0
HOBART OK 53 88 52 73 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 87 55 76 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 51 88 48 71 / 0 10 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 84 49 71 / 0 10 40 0
DURANT OK 55 82 56 73 / 0 0 10 10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>031-
033>040-044-045.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.

03/25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1230 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

ALREADY A VERY MILD START TO THE DAY WITH 08Z TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. BIGGEST QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW FAR
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB IN WELL-MIXED AIR MASS AHEAD OF NEXT COOL
FRONT...WHICH IS SLATED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE MIXY DAYS ARE THE TYPE OF SITUATION WHERE THE RAP
DOES AT TIMES PREVAIL WITH REGARD TO WARMING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING
OF AFTERNOON DEW POINTS...AND THUS HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY IN THAT
DIRECTION...THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT SHY OF ABSOLUTE EXTREMES WHICH ARE
5-8F DRIER AND ALSO 5-8F WARMER THAN AVERAGE OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC
RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AT PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS GOING WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S-MID 70S...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY NEARING 25 PERCENT
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 20-30 MPH...SO DAY SHIFT WILL
CERTAINLY WANT TO WATCH TRENDS. REALITY MORE TOWARD THE RAP COULD
INTRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEYOND THE EXPECTED VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MID LEVEL ACCAS
SHOWERS ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOWING BAND OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY SOUTHWEST OF KHON-KFSD-KSPW
LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE
LARGELY INFLUENCED BY FACTORS DISCUSSED WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
ABOVE. MODELS WHICH DO NOT MIX OUT AS EFFICIENTLY INDICATE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMER/DRIER MODELS SHOW
MUCH LESS POTENTIAL. GIVEN THAT WE ARE HEDGING TOWARD THE LATTER...
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT WILL STILL
HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AS SUBTLE WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES START TO COOL IN THE NORTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...AND EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL DIURNAL COOLING TREND
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE WAY TO LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

SEASONALLY COOL START TO MONDAY WILL LIKELY END WITH A SEASONALLY
PLEASANT DAY...AS WINDS WILL OVERALL BE FAIRLY TAME COMPARED TO MANY
RECENT DAYS. LIKELY TO FIND A FEW MORE LINGERING MID CLOUDS HOVERING
THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WELL AS SOME
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING THROUGH/NEAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HEADING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHARPENS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. INFLUX OF A MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WOULD
MEAN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDER OVER MUCH OF THE PRECIP
AREA...WITH EXCEPTION BY LATE NIGHT OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LOBBY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY NON DIURNAL
TREND OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL EMERGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION THREAT EASTWARD FROM THE AREA. TIMING OF
THE UPPER WAVE IS CLOSING ON THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH
THESE DO PROVIDE JUST A BIT QUICKER PROGRESSION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL WORK EASTWARD WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT ALOFT. TIMING OF BOUNDARY IS SUCH THAT COULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN LATTER DAY CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. CHANCE FOR AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY TO BREAK OUT OF CLOUDS A BIT BETTER
WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE WESTERLY AND THUS WARMING TOWARD
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE MORE CLOUDS AND STRONGER AND MORE
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HOLDS THE EAST CLOSER TO 60.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FIND THE STRONG TROUGH WORKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTA...REACHING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN IOWA BY
DAYBREAK. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...AND STRENGTH OF
PV ADVECTION LIKELY TO BRING SCATTERING OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS BACK
TO AREAS NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER DURING THE EVENING...AND THE
ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE NOT LIKELY THAT COOLEST SUBSET OF
SOLUTIONS WILL END UP CORRECT...NAM/ECMWF DO SUGGEST SOME 850 HPA
TEMPS INTO THE WEST COOLING TOWARD -4 TO -6C AND COOL ENOUGH IN
LAYER TO SUPPORT A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW. COMPLICATION WILL BE THE
VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING EVEN DURING NOCTURNAL PERIOD...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP AT LEAST IN THE MID 30S. HAVE THUS MENTIONED
ONLY A MIX NORTH/WEST LATE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY LASTING
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS...WITH 35 TO
45 KNOT WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOWER CLOUD FIELD WRAPPING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE RISES ON THE LOWER SIDE...MAINLY WITH HIGHS
FROM MID 40S IN SW MN TO MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY.

MODELS ARE NOW CONVERGING ON THE ROGUE SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY OF A
SECONDARY CLIPPER WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH MAIN DYNAMICS BRUSHING ACROSS AREAS NEAR/EAST
OF I-29. GFS LEAST IMPACTFUL WITH FARTHEST NORTHEAST PATH TO SYSTEM
MOVING FROM ND TO WI...WITH OTHER MODELS MAINLY ND TO SOUTHERN MN...
ALLOWING STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PV ADVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS
SW MN/NW IA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME CHANCE LEVEL POPS TO THESE
AREAS... AND WITH COMPLEX TEMP TREND ALOFT FIRST WARMING AND THEN
COOLING LATER ON IN NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANY LASTING ACCUMULATION.

IN WAKE...COOLER SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM MID TO UPPER 40S IN
SW MN TO UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT EAST
THAN WEST. EARLY GARDENERS AND THOSE WITH TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE
PLANTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING OVER THE AREA...MANY LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 28 DEGREES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS...
COULD EVEN ALLOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER DIP TO LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WARM HIGHS IN INITIALIZATION GRIDS SEEM TO BE THE RESULT OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL BIAS AND A MUCH WARMER CANADIAN MODEL...SO HAVE AGAIN
SHAVED MULTIPLE DEGREES OFF MODELS...MORE TOWARD SW MN/NW IA THAN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR A RIDE TO THE CREST OF
THE ROLLER COASTER BY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH EVEN A
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
INCREASING GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE A NON DIURNAL TREND AT LEAST AT
HIGHER ELEVATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WITH 60S AND 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MVFR STRATUS
MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 06Z
MONDAY...AND LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING MONDAY. THE STRATUS COULD
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS MVFR STRATUS AT THIS TIME IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SO THIS
SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE. THIS AFTERNOON...BRISK WINDS WILL GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

UPDATED OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES EARLIER ALONG OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
AREA FROM TYNDALL SD...SOUTHEASTWARD TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND THE SIOUX CITY VICINITY FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL TAKE HOLD BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6
PM THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 20 TO
25 PERCENT IN THAT LOCATION. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ258.

MN...NONE.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

613 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 04/06Z. SOME MODELS THEN POINTING
TO POTENTIAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 14Z. HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30KT...STARTING SOUTHWEST AT 12Z...
BUT GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING...
THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

425 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY
MORNING...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS A TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1250 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
839 PM CDT

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FORECAST AS WELL AS DROPPING
THE FORECAST LOWS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES AS CLEARING REMAINS
EXPECTED OVER AN ALREADY CHILLY AND MAINLY DRY AIR MASS.

IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY CLEAR AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COOL SPOTS FAVORED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S BASED ON DEW POINTS
AT THAT LEVEL.

MTF

.SHORT TERM...
206 PM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

KMD

.LONG TERM...
345 PM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE 5KFT STRATOCU
DECK IS DISSIPATING AND SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE SKC OVERNIGHT.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECM SELY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY VEER TO
SLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL STILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL MAY END UP BEING VIRGA OR LIGHT
SPRINKLES. EVENTUALLY...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN...BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.

KREIN

.MARINE...
428 PM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours...with SHRA/TSRA and
lowering ceilings approaching from the northwest near the end of
the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Winds NE around 5 kts shifting to
SE by 14Z. Wind speeds increasing from 8-10 kts at 14Z to 15-20
kts by 00Z...potentially with higher gusts.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

158 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SOME
FLURRIES COULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.
WITH THIS IN MIND...ISOLATED FLURRIES HAVE BEEN ADDED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN STRATOCU DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD THIN
TOWARD DAWN. IN ADDITION...COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALL TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

STRATOCU LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND IS LEADING TO AN MVFR OR LOW END OF VFR CEILING. THIS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
12Z. NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WILL HELP KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 15Z.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1247 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

...Freeze Expected Tonight...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

...Freeze Expected Tonight...

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2016

A deck of MVFR stratocu clouds continues to persist across LEX this
morning. This deck will occasionally raise above MVFR through the
first few hours of the TAF period. High pressure will be building in
from the north and this is expected to eventually scatter out this
ceiling. A few to scattered lower clouds will cross SDF, but do not
expect a ceiling to form there. After this deck scatters out, only a
few to scattered clouds are expected at the terminals through the
remainder of the TAF period.

Winds have begun to relax tonight, though occasional gusts will
continue for the next few hours. Winds will become lighter through
the morning. They will also shift from northerly to easterly by mid
day.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.

IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......EER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

120 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON CLD/POPS TRENDS LATE
THIS AFTN...MIN TEMPS TNGT AND THEN POPS LATE ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE PAC NW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016

WITH DRY HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRES MOVES OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS OF THE ONSET
OF SNOW...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Short Term (Today through Thursday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for isolated
severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. However, this
morning, a weak shortwave is moving through eastern Nebraska and
northeastern Kansas. This is providing for a few showers now
crossing into western Iowa this morning. There are a few returns
across extreme southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas that
are attempting to move into northern Missouri however these returns
are around 10kft and will have to overcome dry air near the surface.
There will however be a few chance for showers across the northern
CWA during the day. The main feature of interest however is a short
upper level shortwave moving through Montana this morning. This
shortwave will move out into the Dakotas today forcing a cold front
into eastern Kansas by 00Z this evening. Modest moisture will stream
into the area ahead of the front under strong WAA. Winds today will
be very breezy out of south as the pressure gradient tightens across
the area in response to a deepening low over north central Kansas.
This will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 70 across the
western CWA. Convergence along the front will increase this evening
and thunderstorms will develop across southeastern Nebraska and
northeastern Kansas. There is some potential for a few isolated
storms to become severe with modest CAPE in the 400-800J/kg range
however limiting factors will be weak shear, as well as weak lapse
rates. However, a 50-60kt southwesterly LLJ noses into the area as
the cold front approaches and may enhance storms. The main threat
with any storm would be the potential for damaging winds however, an
isolated storm capable of large hail cannot be ruled out. Any severe
threat should be short lived as any modest instability in place
should quickly wane after sunset. Thunderstorm chances however will
still continue through the overnight hours as the cold front pushes
through the CWA. By Wednesday the upper level shortwave will be
moving across Minnesota/Iowa. A vort lobe rotating around the back
side of the trough will bring a slight chance for showers across the
eastern CWA. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday under strong
northwest winds with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Thursday
another shortwave will drop through the Upper Midwest forcing a
weak cold front through the area. There is the chance for showers
across the eastern CWA despite the lack of moisture. Highs Thursday
will again be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Extended range (Friday - Monday):

The extended range will begin on the cool side as the area reside
under strong northwest flow on the back side of a departing
shortwave trough. Modest CAA will also exist at the surface keeping
highs in the 50s to near 60. High pressure will build into the
region Friday night providing for good radiational cooling. Freezing
conditions will be likely over at least a portion of the forecast
area. This will need to be monitored in future updates. Saturday
will again be cool after the cold start under continued northwest
flow aloft. Expect highs again in the 50s to near 60. WAA returns to
the area Saturday night as upper level ridging build into the area.
A few weak shortwaves will bring slight chances of showers to the
area Sunday. However, model suggest that on Sunday night/Monday a
stronger shortwave will move through the region bringing more
organized convection to the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Quiet weather overnight, then winds will become gusty on Tuesday with
gusts possibly exceeding 30 knots at times. A band of rain and a few
thunderstorms will drop in from the north later in the afternoon and
evening, reaching the KC area around 10 PM or so.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
322 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Tranquil weather conditions were being observed this morning
thanks to upper level short wave ridging and surface high pressure
passing to our northeast. Meanwhile, surface low pressure was
beginning to develop this morning across the central High Plains
as digging upper level energy crossed the northern Rockies. This
low will deepen throughout the day which will once again result in
increasing south winds across the Ozarks. Winds by late this
afternoon and early this evening may not be all that far from Wind
Advisory criteria across extreme southeastern Kansas and parts of
western Missouri.

We are expecting quite a range in high temperatures today as warm
air advection really kicks in out west. Highs along and west of
the I-49 corridor should reach the middle 70s with temperatures
across the eastern Ozarks peaking in the lower to middle 60s.
Despite some return of low level moisture starting later today,
fire weather concerns will once again be present. A Fire Weather
Discussion has been included below for fire weather concerns today
and throughout the rest of the work week.

That digging short wave energy will then dive into the Corn Belt
region from late this evening into the overnight period. We
eventually expect convection to break out ahead of the wave along
or slightly behind a surface cold front either late this afternoon
or early this evening from southeastern Nebraska into central and
then southwestern Kansas. This convection will encounter an
increasingly hostile environment as it approaches the Ozarks
later tonight as instability will be rather marginal. At this
point, we are expecting a band of scattered to numerous showers
with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms to sweep
southeast across the area from later tonight into Wednesday
morning. No severe storms are expected due to the lack of
instability. We went on the warm side for overnight lows with that
frontal passage not expected until late tonight or early Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Brisk and gusty northwest winds will develop behind that passing
cold front with dry weather expected over most areas by Wednesday
afternoon. High temperatures will be tricky on Wednesday as cold
air advection will not be all that impressive. We have therefore
gone on the high side of temperature guidance.

Another cold front will then move through the area on Thursday as
short wave energy passes to our northeast. Any threat of
precipitation is expected to remain northeast of the area. Brisk
and gusty northwest winds are again expected behind this front but
cold air advection will initially be weak. High temperatures on
Thursday therefore look rather mild with highs in the middle to
upper 60s. While Thursday night looks chilly, we may then see
another frost/freeze as we get into Friday night as surface high
pressure is progged by models to drift across the region.

Cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft should finally begin to lose its
grip on the Ozarks by later this weekend with southerly winds
returning. Dry weather will continue to end the week as synoptic
scale lift and moisture remains largely absent. There is then an
increasing signal for precipitation as we get into early next week
as the upper level flow turns southwesterly.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure was translating across southern Missouri tonight,
causing winds to veer from north to eventually southeast.

Southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow, with possible gusts
up to 30 mph by late afternoon.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are
anticipated at this time.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will persist for
much of the week due to brisk winds and low afternoon humidities.

Today will feature increasing southerly winds with afternoon gusts
over 30 mph expected across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. While low level moisture will begin to
increase, we are still expecting elevated fire weather conditions
over portions of the area.

Winds will then shift to the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning behind a passing cold front...with winds becoming gusty in
the afternoon. A drier air mass will also advect into the region
Wednesday afternoon and will result in elevated to significant
fire weather conditions. Fire Weather headlines could be required
for parts of the area...especially if humidities are slightly
lower than currently expected.

At this time, Thursday is the day where fire weather concerns are
the greatest. Winds will again be brisk and gusty out of the
northwest as another front passes through the region. Thursday
also looks like a high mixing day which will result in strong
afternoon wind gusts. If current expectations hold, fire weather
headlines appear increasingly likely for Thursday.

At this time, winds appear as if they will be slightly lighter on
Friday out of the northwest. However, humidities will still be
rather low. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are expected
for much of the area Friday afternoon.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
308 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Will continue with the freeze warning over west central and south
central warning through 8 am this morning. Temperatures are already
near near or below freezing, and should continue falling given the
light winds and clear skies.

Will keep a slight chance of showers going over northeast Missouri
into west central Illinois today. Low level ridge currently
extending from eastern Kansas northward into western Iowa will move
eastward across Missouri this morning and early this afternoon. This
will allow low level moisture convergence that is currently
producing light showers over western Iowa to move eastward on the
nose of a 50kt low level jet. This is supported well by the
reflectivity in the CAMS.

Temperatures will stay below normal today because of the cool start,
the increasing clouds, and the cool southeasterly wind. MOS highs
which are mainly in the 50s still look good.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

(Tonight through Thursday)

Upper low which is currently over the northern Rockies will still
open up and drop southeastward over the next 48 hours. Its
attendant cold front still looks on track to pass through the area
on Wednesday. Will continue to increase with coverage of showers
and thunderstorms tonight from northwest to southeast, and will keep
with mention of thunderstorms until the front moves through tomorrow.
This first trough will move off to the east by Wednesday evening
before the next shortwave trough will move southeastward into the
area on Thursday in northwesterly flow aloft. This shortwave will
produce enough ascent to keep a chance of showers going Thursday
and Thursday night.

Temperatures will get closer to normal on Wednesday ahead of the
cold front was warmer air moves into the area. Then colder air will
begin to move into the area on Thursday as northwesterly flow sets
up behind the first trough.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS/ECMWF shows that the pattern will be highly amplified on Friday
with deep upper trough over eastern CONUS and a sharp ridge over the
west. Pattern will become more zonal by Sunday as the trough moves
off the east and the ridge weakens and moves east. This should
allow for a gradual warm up over the weekend as 850mb temperatures
go from -5C on Friday to near +10C on Sunday. Also should see an
increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms by early next
week as both the GFS/ECMWF show moisture return from Gulf ahead of
storm system.

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east. So northeast to
east winds to veer to the southeast by daybreak. Southeast winds
to pickup and become gusty by mid morning as mid and high clouds
move in ahead of next weather system. After sunset on Tuesday,
will see the gustiness diminish but sustained winds will be from
the south between 15 and 20 kts for rest of forecast period. Will
also see low level jet pickup, so added low level wind shear
mention to all tafs after 01z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east. So east winds
to veer to the southeast by 15z Tuesday. Southeast winds to
pickup and become gusty by 18z as mid and high clouds move in
ahead of next weather system. After 01z Wednesday, will see the
gustiness diminish but sustained winds will be from the south
between 15 and 20 kts for rest of forecast period. Will also see
low level jet pickup, so kept mention of low level wind shear.
Rain chances will increase towards end of forecast period, but too
much uncertainty on timing, so left out mention for now.

Byrd

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A dry cold front had pushed through the area as of early
afternoon. Clear skies prevailed as moisture is lacking across
most of the central/southern US. While temperatures had warmed
into the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooler air was beginning to
filter in from the north. Elevated fire weather conditions will
continue this afternoon into the early evening as gusty north winds
and low RH continue behind the front.

Quiet/dry weather conditions are expected overnight and during the
day Tuesday as a shortwave trough to our northeast moves by and
heights begin to rise briefly ahead of a developing shortwave over
the northern Rockies. There will be about a 10 to 15 degree
difference in temps from west to east across the area Tuesday with middle
70s out west due to a quicker return of southerly winds and highs
barely reaching 60 out east. Winds will also begin to increase as
the day goes on with an increasing pressure gradient across the
area. Highest wind gusts will be across the western half of the
CWA. An elevated fire weather risk will also continue Tuesday
across the western Missouri/SE Kansas with the increasing wind and
low RH.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

The Northern Rockies shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front will move southeast toward the area Tuesday evening. Models
have trended less and less with precip amounts with this
system. Main reason is lack of moisture. Moisture across the Gulf
of Mexico is sparse and only upper 40s dewpoints will arrive
ahead of this system. A strong elevated mixed layer/capping
inversion will be present across the area throughout the evening
therefore it will take forcing along the frontal boundary to get
precipitation. An area of showers and thunderstorms looks to
develop across Eastern Kansas and Northwest Missouri Tuesday night
and track into the area during the overnight hours Wednesday
Morning. Instability drops off dramatically overnight with MU
capes on the order of 50-100 j/kg therefore thunderstorms are not
expected to be severe.

Northwest flow will continue Wednesday through Saturday. This
means dry and seasonable weather through the rest of the week.
Fire Danger will likely remain elevated as afternoon low RHs and
west-northwest winds will persist on a daily basis.

A reinforcing shot of cool air will move through on Friday with
low temperatures Saturday morning near freezing, especially
across the northeast half of the area. Trends will be monitored
for frost potential during this period.

GFS and EURO models suggest a system will push out of the Desert
SW on Sunday. This combined with a shortwave over Southern Canada
will help to break down the northwest flow and give us our next
chance of precipitation and warmer temperatures Sunday into
Monday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure was translating across southern Missouri tonight,
causing winds to veer from north to eventually southeast.

Southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow, with possible gusts
up to 30 mph by late afternoon.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are
anticipated at this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Fairly quiet wx pattern across the central U.S. this afternoon as
broad scale upper ridging continues to approach in advance of a
trough now working through the Pacific Northwest. While this feature
will be our next weather maker of interest...we should still be able
to squeeze one more dry...or mostly dry day out before main cold
front slides through the region during Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Before then...a strong low-level jet in advance of this feature will
allow for modest return flow trough the afternoon hours on Tuesday
with fcst guidance supporting a return of upper 40/low 50 degree
dewpoints by 00z Wednesday. This will set the stage for developing
convection across the Central Plains along/ahead of southeastward
moving cold front Tuesday afternoon. Fcst models appear to be in good
agreement that upstream convection will slide southeast into
northwest Missouri near/slightly after the 00z time frame...before
traversing the remainder of the CWA during the overnight hrs. Quick
look at fcst soundings from north-central Missouri indicates that the
airmass proceeding the front will remain capped through a good part
of the day...with frontal convergence and increasing height falls
finally allowing enough forcing to break/erode the cap by early
evening. In terms of severe wx impacts...cannot rule out an isolated
strong storm to two across the the far northwest...but overall
confidence remains marginal at best as the late day arrival of return
flow moisture along with the cap should keep instability generation
largely in check. For any storms that do become strong...an isolated
large hail or strong wind gust will be possible.

Convection to largely be east of the fcst area by 12z Wednesday
morning with fast northwest flow aloft prevailing in its wake.
Cannot rule out a few stray rain showers across the far northeast on
Wednesday...and have maintained slight chance and low-end chance
mention for now. Another weak wave to slide south across the region
on Thursday which may lead to some additional light shwr activity
across the far northeast...but overall impacts should be minimal as
better forcing remains east of the area. Beyond this...a dry late
week should lead to an uptick in precipitation chances come Sunday as
another cold front descends upon the region. As it looks right
now...feature looks to be a slow mover as front stalls over the lower
Missouri Vly which should result in continued shwr/storm chances
through early next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure was translating across southern Missouri tonight,
causing winds to veer from north to eventually southeast.

Southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow, with possible gusts
up to 30 mph by late afternoon.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are
anticipated at this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1146 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains
temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning.

The sky will remain largely cloud free tonight with winds becoming
light across the region as the ridge builds into the area. With a
fairly good radiational cooling setup, have temps aob the coolest
guidance. Because of this, have expanded the Freeze Warning into
west central IL and further S into srn IL. The warning may need to
be expanded further SW, but confidence is not high enuf to do so
attm. Cooler pockets may manifest themselves overnight, especially
across the ern Ozarks. Areas further W into central MO shud stay
warmer as winds shud remain a little higher across this area.

Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to
remain N and NW of the CWA tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Ridge over the eastern Seaboard on Tuesday combined with deepening
low pressure over the Great Plains will turn the wind to the south-
southeast. Forecast soundings show mixing up to around 900mb...so
some gusty winds are likely in the afternoon though not as strong as
what we`ve seen in the past few days. GFS is showing some sunrise
surprise showers on the nose of the LLJ on in the strongest
baroclinicity at 850mb Tuesday morning, but the rest of the models
do not move any of this precip into our CWFA so have kept Tuesday
morning dry. Increasing clouds should hamper the diurnal warm up
somewhat, and south-southeast flow isn`t exactly a hot wind for us
especially with the bulk of a cool surface high to our east. Going
forecast looks very reasonable so I only made cosmetic changes.

Little change to the remainder of the forecast. Models are in good
agreement with the high amplitude pattern developing over the CONUS.
Should see rain and thunderstorms develop Tuesday night and continue
into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region...then
persistent northwest flow aloft will keep us relatively cloudy and
cool into Saturday. Temperatures will be at or a few degrees below
normal through Saturday. Still looks like the pattern is going to
try to break Sunday or Monday. With the flow becoming more zonal,
we should warm up again with temperatures creeping back up above
normal and an increasing chance of rain.

Carney
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.

$$
WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
633 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains
temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning.

Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to
remain N and NW of the CWA tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Carney
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Surface ridge to continue building into region tonight with north
winds veering the east then southeast by mid morning on Tuesday.
Strong winds aloft to mix down by midday on Tuesday with gusts to
near 25kts at times. In the meantime, next weather system to
approach region with an increase in mid and high clouds.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge to continue building into region tonight with north
winds veering the east then southeast by 13z Tuesday. Strong
winds aloft to mix down by 18z Tuesday with gusts to near 25kts
at times for rest of forecast period. In the meantime, next
weather system to approach region with an increase in mid and high
clouds. By Tuesday evening, could see low level wind shear, so
added mention after 01z Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 34 58 51 63 / 0 5 40 70
Quincy 30 55 48 60 / 5 10 60 50
Columbia 37 62 52 62 / 0 10 70 30
Jefferson City 38 64 53 63 / 0 10 60 30
Salem 30 54 48 62 / 0 5 20 80
Farmington 33 58 48 63 / 0 5 20 60

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-
Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL.

$$
WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
626 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Winds will veer from north to southeast through the overnight
hours, as a ridge of high pressure translates through the Ozarks.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

Northerly winds will become northeasterly over the next hour or two,
then easterly later tonight. Gusts over 30 kts possible Tuesday
afternoon. No precipitation expected until after sunset tomorrow.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
339 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains
temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning.

Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to
remain N and NW of the CWA tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Nly winds will continue today under a mostly clear sky. Sct to
perhaps briefly bkn cu is expected to form with bases around 4
kft which shud only impact KUIN this afternoon. Winds will become
light tonight and veer to eventually become sely by Tues morning.
A mid cloud deck will also advect into the region Tues morning.
The bulk of the measurable precip is expected to remain N of all
terminals, but precip may need to be added to KUIN in future
updates.

Tilly

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Northerly winds
this afternoon will continue to veer to the southeast overnight
before strengthening after 14z tomorrow. Any precipitation associated
with Tuesday evening`s cold front will hold off until off until
after the valid time of the current forecast period.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
215 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A dry cold front had pushed through the area as of early
afternoon. Clear skies prevailed as moisture is lacking across
most of the central/southern US. While temperatures had warmed
into the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooler air was begnning to
filter in from the north. Elevated fire weather conditions will
continue this afternoon into the early evening as gusty north winds
and low RH continue behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to
continue. A ridge of sfc high pressure extending from the western
Great Lakes to the Ozarks will move south while low pressure
moves into the western Plains. Winds will gradually veer to the
east then southeast after 00z then strengthen after 12z as the
pressure gradient tightens up over the area.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A very mild early morning is underway at this hour, with 2 AM
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, with persistent
southwest breezes. Temperatures are expected to fall to around 50
by daybreak.

A weak cold front will drop south through the forecast area this
morning, turning winds to the north. Highs today will be somewhat
cooler than yesterday, though still mild by early April
standards. Readings should range from the mid to upper 60s north
of I-44, to the low 70s across far southern Missouri. Dewpoints
should mix down into the low 30s behind the front, yielding
afternoon RH in the 25-30 percent range. Winds will be lighter
today compared to yesterday, but the low RH will still result in
elevated fire weather conditions across the region.

Surface high pressure will drop south through the Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes tonight, with overnight lows ranging from
the upper 40s west to mid 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Shortwave ridging will build in Tuesday, along with a return to
the gusty south to southwest winds, especially over the western
half or so of the forecast area. There will be quite the gradient
in temperatures on Tuesday, with highs over southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri reaching the mid 70s. Over the eastern
Ozarks, readings will only be in the upper 50s to around 60
degrees.

A cold front will move south toward the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, bringing with it the next chance for rain.
QPF trends have been downward over the last 48 hours or so, and
the 00Z suite of model guidance is no exception. A lack of quality
moisture looks to result in only a tenth to perhaps a quarter of
an inch of rain through Wednesday afternoon. Right now, it still
looks like most of the area will see some precipitation, though if
trends continue, it`s not beyond the realm of possibility that
some areas could miss out. In addition, have backed off to just a mention
of slight chances for thunder; given the poor moisture
quality/lack of instability, even that may be optimistic at this
point.

Wednesday`s system will serve to reinforce the overall northwest
flow pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS, and this should
continue into the weekend. A few frontal passages are expected
between Wednesday and the start of the weekend, though they should
largely remain dry. Steady north to northwest winds through the
period and low dewpoints will yield elevated fire weather
conditions on a daily basis.

Toward the tail end of the 7 day forecast, it is worth noting that
there continues to be general agreement in a shot of colder air
sometime in the Friday-Sunday time frame. Given the pattern in
place, it is possible that temps could fall low enough during this
time to again pose a threat for a frost or hard freeze. This will
be something to keep an eye on through the week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

A very mild early morning is underway at this hour, with 2 AM
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, with persistent
southwest breezes. Temperatures are expected to fall to around 50
by daybreak.

Surface high pressure will drop south through the Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes tonight, with overnight lows ranging from
the upper 40s west to mid 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1240 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Cold front is currently moving through northeast Missouri and
west central Illinois. Radar is showing most of the mid-level
returns staying back over northern Missouri and southern Illinois
with very few surface reports. This is because the low levels are
very dry per the latest RAP soundings. Upper trough supplying the
ascent for the precipitation will move quickly east early this
morning causing these returns to dissipate by 12Z which is
depicted well by the experimental HRRR. So still expect today to
be mainly dry with skies turning mainly sunny by this afternoon.

Temperatures will be much cooler today with northerly winds
advecting cooler air into the area. Highs will be below normal
today.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Will be going with a freeze warning late tonight over south
central Illinois. The front will move well south of the area
tonight. A surface ridge will also move southeast across the area
with its axis oriented across south central Illinois into
southeast Missouri by late tonight. There will be some high clouds
beginning to spill in ahead of the next system, but think that
south central Illinois will still stay mostly clear all night
allowing for strong radiational cooling. With dewpoints staying in
the mid-upper 20s, expect this area to have overnight lows
falling to around 30, so will go with a freeze warning.

Otherwise it still looks like a weak system will pass just north
of the area on Tuesday bringing some isolated showers to northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois. Otherwise the better chance of
rain will wait until Tuesday night and Wednesday when an
impressive upper trough will drop southeastward out of Dakotas
bringing likely PoPs with a chance of thunderstorms.

The showers will linger into Thursday and Friday as an additional
shortwave trough moves through the area in the northwesterly flow
aloft that sets up behind Wednesday`s trough. The first half of
the weekend does look dry at this point before scattered showers
develop by Sunday as both the GFS and ECMWF are showing return
flow off the Gulf.

Temperatures will be below normal late week before warming up by
next Sunday.

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016

Tilly

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Bond IL-Fayette
IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

329 AM MDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA MOVING EASTWARD
AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA BECOMING OCCLUDED
WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR AN EXCEPTIONALLY
WINDY DAY WITH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IMPACTING
THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ABOUT WIND FIELDS
4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT 850 MB SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH OF 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.
LATEST TREND IS TO POSSIBLY PULL THE HIGHEST WINDS A BIT NORTHWARD
BUT AT THE SAME TIME LESS PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED SO BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW MOST ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING AND MIXING DOWN OF
MOMENTUM. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE HRRR IS SUPPORTING THE
EXPECTED WINDS SO MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD.

FOR TODAY DID REDUCE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL ZONES AS THE MODELS PINWHEEL A DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL TODAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING
AROUND 50. ONE MINOR CONCERN WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS SOME HUMIDITY COULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT FIRE ACTIVITY BUT WINDOW OF
ALIGNMENT IS FAIRLY SHORT.

WEDNESDAY SEES STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MIXING INCREASES. A WEAKENING FRONT TRIES
TO BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
LOOK TO HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO PRODUCE MOISTURE GIVEN ANTICIPATED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

HEIGHTS RISE TO END THE WEEK AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING PRODUCING THE WARMEST DAY ON SATURDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY ONWARD. THE PROBLEM
INVOLVES AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THE GFS TAKES THE ENERGY...WEAKENS IT DRAMATICALLY...AND MOVES IT
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AND GENERATE SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW FOR POPS AND COOLER
WEATHER. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...CUTS A LOW OFF OVER
OREGON AND SENDS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR QUITE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE
PATTERN AND WILL THEREFORE NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER WITH LOW POPS. TWH

.AVIATION...

VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55-60KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
MAINLY LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH
THE RAIN EAST OF MILES CITY TOWARD BAKER AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THERE. SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING. TWH

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 037/069 045/070 042/075 047/079 041/059 034/058
2/W 10/N 10/U 00/U 01/B 33/W 11/B
LVM 052 032/065 036/072 038/075 043/076 037/057 031/058
4/W 10/N 00/U 00/U 02/W 44/W 22/W
HDN 057 034/072 041/070 038/076 042/080 040/060 032/060
5/W 10/N 10/B 00/U 01/B 33/W 11/B
MLS 050 034/069 041/064 037/071 044/077 040/059 031/056
8/W 31/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/B
4BQ 053 032/068 040/063 035/071 041/077 038/060 030/057
8/W 40/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/B
BHK 053 028/063 035/059 032/064 037/073 037/057 028/053
6/W 61/N 10/N 00/U 00/U 22/W 11/B
SHR 053 032/066 039/064 035/072 041/074 039/059 031/057
4/W 10/N 10/B 00/U 01/U 33/W 21/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29>39-41-42-57-58.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO SHOW 850-
700MB WINDS OF 65KT TO 75KT DESCENDING ON THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
VERY DRY MAY LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING MITIGATING THE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS. A BLEND OF THE MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG5 WIND GUSTS PRODUCES 55
MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NRN NEB TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN
WHICH IS HOLDING THE FCST BACK SOME. THE BETTER LOCATION WOULD BE
THE NEB PANHANDLE.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SETS
PLUS BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS IS CLOSE TO
THE RAP MODEL.

THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
ACROSS NRN NEB. THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRODUCE STRONG OR PERHAPS LOCALIZED HIGH WIND GUSTS AND THE NAM
SHOWS ADIABATIC MIXING.

LASTLY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TODAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN THIS AFTN.
THIS TROF MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. K INDICES IN THE
NAM AND RAP ARE LESS THAN 30C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

POST FRONTAL CAA AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER AT LEAST
INITIALLY AS STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS MIXED TO THE SFC...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOCUSES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN IN THE EVENT A
RANGE FIRE IS ON-GOING...PLUS THE AIRMASS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. WE OPTED TO KEEP THE RFW GOING UNTIL 15Z
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WELL CURED FUELS. THE RFW MAY HOWEVER NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE
SHOWN TO LAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA PAST 21Z AND RH IS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING.

SEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. ATTM...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS AS THE MODELS INCREASE
MOISTURE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK
AND INTO SATURDAY...THE PLAINS WILL BOOKEND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SOME COOLER AIR IS RECYCLED WEST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...TO JUST THE LOWER 50S
OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST ATOP THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S /EAST/ AND LOWER
70S /WEST/. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...AND WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST...ANY WIND EVENT MAY SPELL TROUBLE FOR
CONTAINMENT OF RANGELAND FIRE.

LATE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE MODELS
DEPICT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...COMING FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS OUR BEST SHOT AT QPF...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE QPF IS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE. WILL LEAVE THE CR_INT AS IS WHICH SUGGESTS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

OVERNIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT AGL. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 45 KTS 1500 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL AND 1800 FT AGL
AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 12000 FT AGL WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE TUES AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS TUES AFTN...AND AROUND 30 KTS TUES EVE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. COOLER MORE MOIST
PACIFIC AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS DRY AIR LATE TONIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA VALLEY FIRE ZONES. WEST WINDS
INCREASE SHARPLY TO 25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT. DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE TEENS. HUMIDITY INCREASES TONIGHT BUT WINDS INCREASE
AS 850-700MB WINDS REACH 65KT TO 75KT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST TODAY...AND THE FACT
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY AS THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONCERN IS
THAT IF A RANGE FIRE IS GOING...OR THERE/S CARRYOVER...THE EXTREME
WIND OVERNIGHT WOULD PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE SPREAD DESPITE DECENT RH
RECOVERY. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS...NEAR CRITICAL RH IS
FORECAST.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SOME OF THE MORE RECENT LARGE RANGES FIRES WITHIN
THE CWA HAVE MADE SOME OF THE LARGEST RUNS AT NIGHT WHEN WINDS
PEAKED.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208.

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC/JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

339 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE LOW ON
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE IT WOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
WHILE THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO AROUND 50
KTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO MIX TO THOSE HEIGHTS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

IF WIND ISN/T YOUR THING...THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WON/T BE VERY
ENJOYABLE. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH SOLID DOWNWARD MOTION
WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BOTH DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 45 MPH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE LOOK SOLID TOO. WINDS SHOULD BE
SUB WARNING LEVELS...BUT UNRELENTING NONE-THE-LESS. THE WIND WILL
DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK THINGS UP
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AS THEY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

2ND ISSUE IN THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE STRONG
WINDS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRIER AIR NOT ONLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA BUT MAY MIX DOWN. THERE IS OFTEN A TENDENCY FOR THINGS TO
BE DRIER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT GIVEN THIS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF LESS 25 PERCENT LOOK WIDESPREAD THANKS TO TEMPERATURES BUMPING UP
3 TO 6 DEGREES. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW BUT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK. MOST
RECENT DAY 4 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK /THURSDAY/ HAS OUR AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SUCH POTENTIAL.

A THIRD ISSUE IS SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WARMER START TO SPRING...PARTS
OF THE FORECAST MAY BE ON THE CUSP OF SOME POTENTIAL HARM DUE TO
NEAR FREEZING/FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS IS A BIG MORE AMBIGUOUS
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S
FRIDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BRING IN SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. AGAIN...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FINALLY...AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON THE WEEKEND WE MAY
SEE A SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW...TO ONE WHICH COULD
BRING AT LEAST SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ISN/T
GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT AND STILL CHANGES ONGOING. AT LEAST INITIALLY
THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A SUPER PRECIPITATION SETUP BUT...THAT MAY
CHANGE. FOR NOW...ROUGHLY 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES CENTERED ON
MONDAY SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

CLOUDS SHOULD BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE A FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH AND GRADUALLY TURNS WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS SMALL ENOUGH THAT HAVE
LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1203 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A
COLD FRONT NOW WORKING THROUGH BILLINGS MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
THE OCCLUSION PROCESS ALREADY OCCURRING IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...AS DRIER AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO OCCLUDE AS IT REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
09-11Z AND THEN CENTRAL AREAS BY 15Z. THE LATEST HRRR IS TRACKING
WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS
TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TURTLE MOUNTAINS
NEAR 12Z TUESDAY/WITH PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO DIPPING INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 50MPH RANGE HAVE BEEN NOTED
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN BILLINGS AND THIS WILL MONITOR THIS AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

WILL BEGIN TO LOOK INTO CURRENT WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
AS ALL DATA COMES IN AND DECIDE WHAT TO DO IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH SHOWERS PROGRESSING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST HRRR/RAP ITERATIONS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...INHIBITING THEIR EASTWARD EXTENT THROUGH 12 UTC
TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE WEST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPDATED TEST PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND
CANADIAN ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS ALSO INCREASING...BEGINNING IN
THE WEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE ADJUSTED SKY COVER LOWER MOST AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ALSO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE 12 AND INCOMING 18 UTC GLOBAL SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA PROPAGATING EAST AND
BECOMING STACKED BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS LOW
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WIND FIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM...WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE 12 UTC
ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN...SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST 0.5 KM
WINDS AROUND 50 KTS WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE 06 AND
12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE SOURCES...AND WOULD SUPPORT A BIT WEAKER
WIND FIELD. GIVEN AT LEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLY BEING MET...ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. DID ADD A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
SLOT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEDNESDAY CLIPPER
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE FILLING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS
INITIAL BAND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 20Z
TUESDAY WEST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35KT TO
45KT AT KDIK AND KISN BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORTING RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ARE POSSIBLE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ034-035-041-042-044>047-050.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

404 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

CURRENTLY... 05/08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SWATH OF 40S DEW POINTS
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER... BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION TO BE A RUSE... WITH THE MOIST LAYER
CONFINED TO THE SURFACE... WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. WITH THIS
EVIDENT... TYPICAL CONCERNS WITH GUIDANCE HANDLING OF DEW POINTS IS
EXACERBATED. HOWEVER... GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY... LATEST
RUNS OF THE RAP AND OPERATIONAL HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE AN OVERALL
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT DEW POINT/RH EVOLUTION. IN ADDITION...
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING
SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING.

AFTER SUNRISE... WE/LL BEGIN TO MIX OUT QUICKLY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
STEADILY THROUGH NOON... WITH SFC DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO LOW/MID
20S TO 30S BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES TANKING BY 2 TO 3 PM IN THE LOW TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOW
20S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. NOT TO BE OUT DONE BY THE DRY AIR...
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST... IF NOT ALL...
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL APPROACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 APPROACHING 50 MPH. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BACK TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED... EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FARTHER TO THE EAST...
HELD OFF FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THE MOMENT AS OKLAHOMA STATE
FORESTRY REPORTS FUELS CONTINUE TO GREEN UP AND WINDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE. DID INCLUDE COMANCHE... TILLMAN... AND COTTON AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE CRITICAL TO EXTREME... WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE RED FLAG... KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY
GOING.

THROUGH SUNSET... EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO PUSH INTO N/NW OKLAHOMA...
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT BEGINNING AROUND 06/00Z (7 PM
CDT) FOR FAR NW OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN TO ANY
ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL ANY ON GOING WILDFIRES. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIFT AT THIS TIME... BUT IT
IS ADVISED TO CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR REVISED FORECASTS AS THE
TIMING AND SEVERITY COULD VARY.

ADDITIONALLY OVERNIGHT... THE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EVEN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED... LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS... WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM UP THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASES AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES E/SE ACROSS TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A DRY FRONT SWINGS SOUTH THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A TAD MORE COMPLICATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHORT... STOUT RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STRONG H500 LOW OVER THE SOCAL COAST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE ISSUE AT THE
MOMENT IS THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITHIN THE LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER... FROM EITHER SOLUTION... THE GFS OR
ECMWF... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY SOME TIME
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW SIGNIFICANT... THE
DETAILS ARE TOO HAZY AT THE MOMENT TO LOCK DOWN.

KURTZ

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 52 74 44 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 86 52 75 43 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 55 77 45 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 90 48 75 42 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 49 72 42 / 0 30 0 0
DURANT OK 83 56 74 46 / 0 10 10 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>025-033>038-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.

17/04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1144 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK. WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE VERY QUICKLY AND WILL BECOME
VERY STRONG BY MID-AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN TUESDAY EVENING...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...EVEN AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
KGAG/KWWR DURING THE LATE EVENING...AND THROUGH THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N 1/2 OF OK.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH AND SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NUDGED
WINDS CLOSER TO THE HRRR BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>031-
033>040-044-045.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.

17/23/23

PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS TRENDING TO A
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT WEST
AT KDRT...EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TAKING SHAPE AROUND 19Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE T OVER VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ALSO MINIMIZED IN AN AREA SPANNING FROM ATASCOSA TO SOUTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTY AFTER 08Z SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND ADDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE WX GRID FOR THIS PERIOD AND AREA.

MORE OF THE SAME WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY HOWEVER
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS A H5 CLOSED LOW
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WHILE IT LIKELY WONT HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...IT WILL PUSH
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA COUPLED WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
THEREFORE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FUEL ANALYSIS MAINTAINS AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE SO THIS THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A RED FLAG THREAT AT THIS TIME. BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND
BACK TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BROAD CLOSED LOW COMING ONSHORE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE NEXT BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GO AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT DGEX DOES
ADVERTISE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE DETAILS TO COME AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 58 79 51 83 / 0 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 56 78 47 81 / 0 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 56 79 49 82 / 0 0 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 56 78 49 81 / 0 0 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 62 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 57 78 48 81 / 0 0 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 58 80 47 82 / 0 0 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 80 56 78 48 81 / 0 0 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 58 78 48 80 / 0 0 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 59 79 50 82 / 0 0 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 58 80 51 83 / 0 0 10 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

245 AM PDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FEW LINGER SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTH THIS AM...OTHERWISE
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER. IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR WED AND THU. THEN...A SLOW RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUN...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
REGION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD
LINE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS...THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BE
PUSHED FARTHER NORTHWARD. SO...WILL KEEP A 20 OR 30 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE THIS AM.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THESE
WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH WED AND THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
INLAND. TODAYS TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO MID AND UPPER 60S TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM OFFSHORE TODAY
TO MORE OFFSHORE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR REGION WED AND THU. WHILE THE WARMEST DAY FOR
THE COAST WILL BE WED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
BUT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THU FOR THE COAST AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY ONSHORE FOR THU. BUT INLAND...BOTH WED
AND THU WILL BE RATHER WARM. THU WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. /ROCKEY.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE PAC
NW ON FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF ONSHORE FLOW FRI...WHICH SHOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SPLITTING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE WILL SETTLE OVER S CALIF AND THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE PAC NW LOOKS LIKELY TO END UP WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE 60S. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH OF KSLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WED.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET NORTH OF
KSLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WED. /MH
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. THE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
UP THE OREGON COAST TO PRODUCE GUSTY N TO NE WINDS AROUND 25
KT...MOSTLY BEYOND 10 NM WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8
FEET THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WESTERLY SWELL PREVAILING. /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 6 AM TODAY...AND AGAIN 3 PM TO 6 PM TODAY.
&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 AM PDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions and the threat of mountain showers lingers
today. Drier and warmer conditions develop from Wednesday into
Friday. In fact, some areas could see record highs later in the
week, with highs in the 70s and 80s. This weekend and early next
week some will see the threat of showers return. Forecast models
are still coming together on the details. Right now the best risk
appears to come Saturday. A few thunderstorms are also possible.
Expect cooler temperatures going into the weekend, though readings
will still be above normal.

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Lingering snow showers over the Idaho
Panhandle mountains and the Cascade crest area will continue into
this morning in the westerly orographic regime in the wake of
yesterday`s trough passage. Locally breezy conditions will also
persist through much of the day today across the basin...but with
a gradual decrease. High temperatures today will recover to around
seasonal normals. Models are in good agreement with the general
forecast field of motion through the next few days at least. A
broad upper level ridge will gradually build over the region.
There is however substantial mid level and high altitude moisture
caught up in the upper level flow which will enhance into some
thick mid and high clouds over a upper level warm front. This
will result in heavily filtered sunshine today...but the low level
air mass will remain very dry and not conducive to any
precipitation making it to the surface outside of the highest
peaks ringing the basin.

Skies will clear gradually tonight as the ridge amplifies and the
storm track and attendant moisture flow is shunted to the north
into Canada. A seasonably cool morning Wednesday will recover to
above normal temperatures...generally 8 to 12 degrees warmer than
today...under light winds and mostly sunny skies. /Fugazzi

Wednesday night to Monday: Dry conditions and near-record warmth
into Friday gives way to some opportunities for precipitation and
cooler temperatures toward the weekend and early next week. Low
confidence exists over the details of those upcoming precipitation
chances as models have been all over the place with the weather
features. Yet first through Friday a ridge of high pressure
amplifies over the region. This will bring dry conditions and
gradually thinning clouds. Subsidence and WAA will push
temperatures to 10-20 degrees above normal, with the warmest day
Friday.

Then Friday night into Saturday a stretching and splitting trough
comes to the West. The northern split of said trough comes across
the Pacific Northwest in some form. Its precise evolution is still
coming together. Yet it will be enough to bring some clouds and a
threat of showers to portions of the area. Friday night the main
risk will be across the Cascades and the mountains closer to the
Canadian border. Saturday the risk expands through the eastern
third of WA and the ID Panhandle and comes with a threat of
thunderstorms, before the threat starts to wane Saturday evening.

Between late Saturday night and Monday the pattern becomes
murkier. Some solutions track the trough east. Others leave a
portion of it over the Pacific Northwest as a cut-off low that
bobbles about, until late Monday (into next Tuesday) when most
solutions show the next trough approaches from the west. Until
models settle down, I kept the main shower threat over southeast
WA and the ID Panhandle through Sunday and start to introduce
chances around the Cascades Monday. Either way the strong ridge
will be interrupted and temperatures are expected to undergo a
cooling trend, though values are still expected to remain above
seasonal averages. /J. Cote`

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moist upslope flow will result in showers and low clouds
across the ID Panhandle tonight. This moisture may result in low
stratus at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW for Tuesday morning with MVFR
cigs possible. Winds will continue to decrease overnight, but
will remain breezy into Tuesday afternoon. Stratus will lift into
a flat cumulus deck across extreme eastern WA and into the ID
Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. There will also be a deck of mid
level clouds above 8 kft pushing in off the eastern Pacific
after 15Z. /SVH

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 55 37 64 43 75 49 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 53 36 64 41 75 47 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Pullman 53 37 65 42 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 60 40 72 46 81 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 58 36 69 40 78 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 52 35 63 37 73 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 48 34 61 38 74 45 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 63 39 71 41 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 62 42 72 47 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 62 39 70 43 78 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 0

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1049 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and showery weather is expected through mid evening as a
storm system moves out of the region. A return of warm and dry
weather is expected by mid week. Thursday and Friday will be the
warmest days of the week with many locations reaching the 70s. A
few low elevation spots in the Columbia Basin and in the
Lewiston-Clarkston Valley will have a shot at 80 degrees. Another
frontal system will bring the potential for more thunderstorms and
gusty winds on Saturday.

.DISCUSSION...
The Wind Advisory has been cancelled for the Wenatchee Area,
Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake Area. The boundary layer has
decoupled enough that stronger gusts of 30-40 mph will be becoming
less frequent through the rest of this evening.

The focus will now shift to snow over the mountains. There is a
strong Puget Sound Convergent Zone (PSCZ) directed right over
Stevens Pass. Web cams over this pass shows the road becoming snow
covered very quickly with heavy snow likely. The HRRR model would
suggest another 2 to 3 hours of heavy snowfall possible through
about midnight before tapering off. This will result in
treacherous conditions for anyone trying to drive up over the
pass along Highway 2. /SVH

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 54 37 64 43 77 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 34 54 37 66 41 77 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Pullman 35 51 37 65 43 77 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 39 59 39 72 46 82 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 33 60 35 70 40 80 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 33 53 34 64 37 75 / 40 10 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 33 49 35 63 38 76 / 50 10 10 10 0 0
Moses Lake 35 63 38 71 41 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 39 63 43 74 46 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 35 62 39 71 43 80 / 10 10 0 0 0 0

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

930 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR WITH SHOWERS
AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL TAPER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FOCUSING SHOWERS NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LINE WITH SNOW PILING UP AT STEVENS PASS. MODELS SUGGEST
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER THEN FADE
OVERNIGHT.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT BRUSHING THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHING ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP DRY THINGS OUT. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
70S. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND INLAND ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORMS OFF THE B.C. COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SURFACE FLOW
WILL ALSO FLIP TO ONSHORE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. 33

.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL EASE TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
BECOMING STABLE TUESDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE SNOHOMISH KING
COUNTY LINE WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
EXCEPT IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR 3000
FEET OVERNIGHT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL STAY NORTH OF KBFI BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE CASCADES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-
15 KT EASING SOME TUESDAY MORNING. FELTON

.MARINE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WEST WINDS IN THE STRAIT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH EASTERLIES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT ON THURSDAY. FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AGAIN
FRIDAY WITH GALE FORCE WESTERLIES POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT.
FELTON/CHB

.HYDROLOGY...NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
856 PM PDT MON APR 4 2016

The focus will now shift to snow over the mountains. There is a
strong Puget Sound Convergent Zone (PSCZ) directed right over
Stevens Pass. Web cams over this pass shows the road becoming snow
covered very quickly with heavy snow likely. The HRRR model would
suggest another 2 to 3 hours of heavy snowfall possible through
about midnight before tapering off. This will result in
treacherousconditions for anyone trying to drive up over the
pass along Highway 2. /SVH

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold and unstable upper level trough of lower pressure
will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms generally east of a
line from KSZT to KALW through the early evening hours. Much of
thunderstorm activity has cleared east of KCOE, but there will
still be a threat to the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through about
02Z this evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of moderate to
heavy rain, pea sized hail and occasional cloud to ground
lightning strikes. Showers, thunderstorms and the gusty winds will
decrease late this evening. There is a chance for low stratus to
develop over extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle early
Tuesday morning with MVFR cigs possible, but confidence is low.
/SVH

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
711 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Will continue with the freeze warning over west central and south
central IL through 8 am this morning. Temperatures are already
near near or below freezing, and should continue falling given the
light winds and clear skies.

Temperatures will stay below normal today because of the cool start,
the increasing clouds, and the cool southeasterly wind. MOS highs
which are mainly in the 50s still look good.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

(Tonight through Thursday)

Temperatures will get closer to normal on Wednesday ahead of the
cold front as warmer air moves into the area. Then colder air
will begin to move into the area on Thursday as northwesterly flow
sets up behind the first trough.

(Friday through Monday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Isolated rain showers are possible this
morning near the terminals (especially KUIN), but the chances of
rain at KCOU/KUIN are too low to include in the TAFs attm.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for at least the first
0-12 hours until an approaching disturbance brings widespread
showers and thunderstorms into the region after 05/03z. Sustained
wind speeds will increase today due to the tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the disturbance. After looking at BUFKIT
profiles, it appears that the atmosphere will likely remain mixed
overnight, therefore LLWS was removed from the TAFs and gusts were
added.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for at least the first 0-12
hours of the valid TAF period. An approaching disturbance will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms into the region after
05/06z. Sustained wind speeds will increase today due to the
tightening pressure gradient ahead of the disturbance. After
looking at BUFKIT profiles, it appears that the atmosphere will
likely remain mixed overnight, therefore LLWS was removed from the
TAFs and gusts were added.

Kanofsky

WFO LSX

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
710 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

High pressure north east of the rehgion will work to keep the
regions terminals under VFR conditions through much of today. High
overcast will beging to spread into the region after 06z with the
chance for showers in the vicinity of area terminals. By sunrise
Wednesday, ceilings will be in the 3-5kft range across the region
with winds surface becoming southwesterly.

Low level winds shear will impact the Branson region for for a
breif period overnight form 05z to 08z as a low level jet clips
the region.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2016

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will persist for
much of the week due to brisk winds and low afternoon humidities.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Short Term (Today through Thursday night):

Extended range (Friday - Monday):

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2016

Bkn mid lvl clouds will dominate the TAF pd thru 03Z. Btn 03Z-05Z
thunderstorms out ahead of an approaching cold front will affect the
terminals. Models suggest cigs will remain btn 3-4kft in storms
however vsbys will be reduced to 3-5SM (with perhaps a pd of even
lower vsbys at STJ with +TSRA possible). Thunderstorms will persist thru
08Z when the cold front moves thru the terminals. Winds will also be
an issue for aviators today as SE winds this morning around 10-15kts
picks up by mid-morning to near 20kts with gusts around 30kts while
gradually veering to the SSE. Winds this evening will cont to veer to the
SW remaining btn 15-20 kts with gusts around 25kts and higher gusts
possible in storms. FROPA will occur btn 07Z-08Z veering winds to the
west around 15kts.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73