Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/04/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

824 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FROM 2 AM EDT MON UNTIL 6 PM EDT MON...

AS OF 800 PM EDT...WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WE LET THE WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRE. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED WITH
THE PAST UNOFFICIAL 12-HOURS OF PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PER THE IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CS/SC
HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING BEHIND PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR SKIES AT THIS
MOMENT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SNOW UPSTREAM WAS FAST APPROACHING.
IN FACT...RATHER IMPRESSIVE W-E ORIENTED BANDS WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES WERE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND QUICKLY MOVING
ONTO CENTRAL NY. PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...SEEMS THE START
TIME PER THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT...WITH SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST RANGING FROM THE 80S
IN IOWA...TO 20S IN WISCONSIN AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SFC
LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...TOWARD NORTHERN PA...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE NJ
COAST MONDAY MORNING.

VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD
ALLOW BANDS OF SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E. SOME OF THIS SNOW
COULD BE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY
WHERE NARROW BANDS CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THESE
FORCING MECHANISMS...CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGEST BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP.

IT APPEARS THAT BY SUNRISE...A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES
SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE I-88 CORRIDOR...AND I-90 CORRIDOR IN NY
AND MA. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF BEST
FRONTOGENESIS...AND MOST INTENSE SNOWBANDS OCCUR. ALSO...THERE IS
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST SNOW AMTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR
MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY START TO RISE A BIT TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...PERIODS OF SNOW...SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
IN INTENSITY...SHOULD BE ONGOING CLOSE TO AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE
MORNING...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
ALSO...SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO MIX WITH...OR
EVEN CHANGE TO SLEET/RAIN BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT A SWATH OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 4-8 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES...WITH 2-4 INCHES FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE A BRIEF
TEMP SPIKE TO NEAR OR OVER 40 COULD OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM...MORE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.
SOME CLOUDS/FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR MON
EVE...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH TUE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 20S TO LOWER
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS VALLEY
AREAS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVOLVING AS GLOBAL MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINES. THIS
WILL CARVE OUT ANOTHER TROUGH AND PROVIDE A CHANGING THERMAL
PROFILES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A DEPARTING RIDGE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPSTREAM AFOREMENTIONED WAVE APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMUM APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS
IS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE CHANCE POPS. AS FOR THERMAL
PROFILES...WET BULB ZEROS SHOULD KEEP IT MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS OVERALL
TRENDS FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THERMAL PROFILES DO MODERATE ABOVE ZERO SO WE WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY ADVECT IN AS H850
VALUES FALL BACK BELOW 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN CONTINUE COLD ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY AS H850 VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C. QUESTION
WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS AS H500 UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...HIGH
CHANCE-SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME RAIN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE LIKELY WARMING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER JUST ENOUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES WHERE ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE BAND/S/ MAY SET UP AS
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING...W-NW WINDS TOO ARE SUBSIDING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWERING CIGS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TOWARD SNOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SNOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST YET CIGS MAY REMAIN LOW WITHIN IFR CATEGORY.

WESTERLY WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 KTS FOR TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP OF 0.25-0.50 IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MON NT THROUGH
WED.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TODAY AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS.

APRIL 3RD:

ALBANY NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943
DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891
MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013

GLENS FALLS NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985

APRIL 4TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003
DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975

APRIL 5TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003

APRIL 6TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

211 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO NERN NJ AND ALONG THE CT COAST AT 02Z PER
RADAR. NWLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS. LAST REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WERE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE S FORK. BEST CHC FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN COMES
TOWARD MRNG WHEN MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE RR QUAD OF
THE JET APPROACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT AND
TRAVELS NE ALONG THE FRONT. A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO KEEP IN LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS
FAR NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO END UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PASSING EITHER OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY AFTER THE LOW CENTER`S PASSAGE...COUPLED
WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE NIGHT
SATURDAY.

REGARDING WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR VERY LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS BEING A VERY LATE 3RD PERIOD TO 4TH PERIOD
EVENT...AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR NOW. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME DOUBTS THAT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
AREAS AND LONG ISLAND SEE GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...THIS IS AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH.

AS FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...IT BECOMES LIKELY LATE AT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF BY NOONTIME
ON SUNDAY...BUT FOR ALL LOCATIONS IT LIKELY STARTS AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...RANGING TO A LIGHT COATING TO
NO ACCUMULATION OVER LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NJ.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S USING A NAM12/MAV/MET MOS BLEND. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX MEANDERING ABOUT HUDSON BAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST WITH RIDGING OUT WEST.

POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES SUN
NIGHT/MON. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE E IS REINFORCED MON INTO TUE. RIDGING BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK FOR WED...BUT YET ANOTHER DEEPENING ERN TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO
TYPICAL TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

GUSTY WINDS SUN EVE WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WEAK WAA COMMENCES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUN NIGHT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA ON MON WITH NRN ZONES
HAVING THE BEST CHC FOR POSSIBLE MINOR AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE RECENT WARM WEATHER COULD CONFINE ACCUMS MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES. EARLY MON MORNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. GUSTY SW WINDS MON WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE LATE MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CAA DEVELOPS. GUSTY NLY WINDS
CONTINUE ON TUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SERN CANADA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY MORNING

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSING SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FROM THE NYC METRO TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST FROM 08Z WEST TO
19Z EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 19Z.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 06Z - 15Z
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOME S BY 16Z THEN SW AT
15G25 KT AFT 18Z. GUSTS DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGHEST WINDS 09Z-15Z SUNDAY WNW
30-35 KT GUSTS 45-50 KT. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...COLD FROPA ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF SQUALL OF HEAVY
RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS...POSSIBLY THUNDER. STRONG NW
WINDS 30G45-50KT AFTER FROPA. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...A COATING AT NY/NJ AND LI
TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. STRONG NW WINDS 30G45KT IN THE MORNING...
DIMINISHING TO 20-25G35KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SNOW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING RAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EXPECTED. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR.

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING... PRIMARILY DUE TO A LINGERING SEA SWELL. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE WIND
WATCH. THINKING IS THAT THE OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING THIS...BUT WILL KEEP ALL WATERS UNDER THE WATCH LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...AND THIS BEING A VERY LATE
3RD PERIOD START TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...AT LEAST GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD BE REALIZED.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVSY LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY SUN
EVE...BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN MON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HIGH
PRES TO THE S. SCA IS THEN POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS RETURN FOR MOST OF WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JMC/JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

933 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH AFTERNOON...

BAND OF PRE FRONTAL STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE NORTH HALF. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN FAST MOVING STORMS. CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF NO RAIN. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND ALSO
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE IT HAS STARTED OFF
OVERCAST.

.AVIATION...
BASED ON RECENT HRRR MODEL...BAND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND KMCO VCNTY IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN KMLB-KVRB BY MID AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH +TSRA AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TODAY.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR-HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES. A BAND OF
STRONG STORMS WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE COAST NORTH OF CANAVERAL
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH OF THE CAPE TO THE
TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SOME
STORMS. A FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INDIAN
RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX/RADAR...WEITLICH/SEDLOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

216 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
AND CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS THE H85 JET WILL HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW- LEVEL JET INDICATES A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT IS LOW
BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND HRRR PLUS PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS NORTH. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW/W ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING.

AGS/DNL HAVE BRIEFLY GONE VFR BUT EXPECT LOW CIGS TO RETURN WITH
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM S/SW
TO W/NW. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

111 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH
IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB
CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500
FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME
SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON
COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT

SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.

A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR
EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS
WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY
AREAS.

OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO
CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE
LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO
YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY
OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER
AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW.

FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

GUSTS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS UNTIL 10-11Z WHEN GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES. PRIOR
TO THIS WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 10-12KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 16KT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.

UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MVFR CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS.
CURRENT TIMING IS THAT THE MIXED LAYER INITIALLY WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE BY 14-16Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-38KT AND BY MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE GUSTING BETWEEN 40-44KT FROM A 290-320
DIRECTION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND COULD
BEGIN TO MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS...AND MAY PRODUCE A CLOUD BASE
AROUND 2500FT AGL. PRECIP QUICKLY EXITS EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR LIFTING CLOUD BASES AND
EVENTUALLY PRODUCING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
320 PM CDT

A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A
PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES
THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

BASED ON CURRENT WINDS AND STORM REPORTS...THE HIGH END WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL ITS CURRENT 21Z EXPIRATION.
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS INTO THE LOW 50S
CONTINUES AT MIDDAY...WITH REPORTS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST SURGE
HAS SHIFTED INTO NW IL ALONG THE AXIS OF TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGE GRADIENT. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE
THOUSANDS THE QUAD CITIES METRO AND A FEW OTHER MOSTLY MINOR WIND
DAMAGE STORM REPORTS.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF
DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES ACRS NORTHERN IA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT
MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY
THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE
BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW
SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME
NORTHEAST BUREAU.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING
PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE
PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY
COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS
IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND
WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND
ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD
VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME
OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50.

TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN
CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE
SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS
THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE
DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.

SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20
TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM
READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM
THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION
EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2
KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE
OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE
HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L
30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH
NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE
A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS
HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING
FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY.
WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE...
THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION
OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO
OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO...
THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN
THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND
LOWS MAINLY 30S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BRIEF NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 19Z...ESPECIALLY AT MLI. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT NW AND THEN VARIABLE AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES THROUGH. DRY AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY
AT LEAST FROM 15 TO 25 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

956 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

ISALLOBARIC SURGE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IA OVER THE PAST
HOUR WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
AT THE MOST WIND-PRONE SITES. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW
THIS AXIS OF HIGHEST PRESSURE CHANGE FROM ABOUT DUBUQUE TO
FAIRFIELD...WITH THE EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK ON SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AREA OF FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS FROM ABOUT CLINTON TO
CEDAR RAPIDS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS TO HIT WINDS HARDER...BUT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEFORE STARTING
TO WANE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY.
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
ACRS NORTHERN IA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

AS THE MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECK WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING...THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG LLVL WINDS AND TURBULENT CONDITIONS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXCEPT MAYBE AT BRL WHERE THEY
WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 35-40 KTS. AN APPROACHING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE SFC WINDS TO DECREASE SHARPLY BY
EARLY EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM PUSH. ..12..

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

709 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY.
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
ACRS NORTHERN IA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO IN FIRST PARAGRAPH OF LONG TERM

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

354 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY.
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
ACRS NORTHERN IA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THE NEXT 24
HOURS....AS 10 TO 20 KT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
CHANGE BY 10Z TO NORTHWEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH
INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL BE VERY VERY SHORT LIVED...BUT COULD
MOMENTARILY DROP VISIBILITIES. DUE TO THE VERY SHORT NATURE OF
THIS...I CHOSE TO USE VCSH TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY. WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE WILL SEE WINDS BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25
TO 35 KTS ALL DAY...WITH SOME MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS LIKELY
DURING THE 15Z TO 20Z PERIOD SATURDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING SATURDAY...AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
VFR/CLEAR. ERVIN

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-
DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-
MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-
WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
828 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

...Updated to cancel the red flag warning...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As a surface boundary crosses south central Kansas early this
evening the wind speeds had decrease to 10 mph or less. Relative
humidity values were also slowly rising so critical fire weather
conditions are no longer anticipated. Have cancelled the red flag
warning for early this evening.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Very quiet weather. Not much to discuss. Broad ridging west of
Kansas, with gentle, dry NW flow aloft. A beautiful spring day
with upper 70s and lower 80s expected, and winds veering more NW
through late afternoon. A very weak cold front will drift through
SW KS this evening accompanied by a northerly wind shift, but that
is it. Winds will continue to veer to NE through Monday morning at
around 10 mph. Little if any cold air advection, so low
temperatures Monday morning still several degrees above early
April normals in the lower 40s. Still pleasantly mild Monday in
the 70s, with several degrees of cooling, compared to Sunday,
mainly across the NE counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Tuesday...Unseasonably warm temperatures expected across SW KS,
courtesy of downslope SW winds and prefrontal compression. Expect
upper 70s north, to mid 80s SE. Strong and gusty SW winds will be
most pronounced across the SE zones Tuesday afternoon with gusts
of 30-40 mph. Fire weather headlines are likely.

Cold front will enter the northern zones early Tuesday afternoon,
and progress south quickly, trending winds to strong and gusty NW.
Kept low grade slight chances of passing light rain showers,
mainly north and east of Dodge City, Tuesday afternoon and
evening, before primary vort max passes and subsidence takes over
Tuesday night. Moisture will be limited (again) in NW flow aloft.
Still, the eastern 1/2 of the CWA may pick up a few hundreths of
an inch of rain. This will not be the widespread beneficial
rainfall that SW KS desperately needs. Can`t rule out some
isolated thunder as well, but kept out of the grids for now.

Wednesday...Windy and cooler. GFS 850 mb winds are progged at
50 kts early in the day, before gradually weakening. NW wind gusts
of 40-45 mph are expected for a time Wednesday morning. Cold air
advection behind the cold front is minimal, with afternoon
temperatures only reduced to the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday...Sunny, warmer and dry with breezy north
winds. Strong PNA across North America, with strong high pressure
ridging over the Rockies, and a strong trough over the Great
Lakes. Dry NW flow will result over SW KS.

Saturday and beyond...12z ECMWF suggests a synoptic pattern
change next weekend, with ridging breaking down, a trough
developing over the SW U.S., and dryline evolution over the
plains. Kept pops very conservative for now with persistent dry
spell continuing.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Northwest winds at less than 10 knots will shift to the north
northeast early Monday as a weak cold front moves into western
Kansas. These northeasterly winds early Monday will gradually veer
to the southeast by late day. Wind speeds on Monday are expected
to stay in the 10 to 15 knot range. NAM BUFR soundings along with
the RAP and HRRR indicating VFR condtions over the next 24 hours.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Red flag criteria being observed across the SE fire zones this
afternoon, with Medicine Lodge reporting SW wind gusts of 30-35
mph and RH down to 11% as of 3 pm. Will allow the red flag warning
to continue. Doubtful the wind criteria will be maintained this
evening as the pressure gradients weaken, and the evening shift
will likely be able to cancel the red flag warning early before
its 9 PM CDT scheduled expiration.

Warm afternoon temperatures and strong gusty prefrontal SW winds
will likely necessitate Fire Weather Watch issuance for Tuesday
afternoon.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 75 48 81 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 39 77 46 79 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 41 78 46 83 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 41 77 47 83 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 43 72 49 76 / 0 0 10 20
P28 45 77 50 84 / 0 0 10 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Turner

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

628 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Pressure gradient remains tight across the forecast area with
winds sustained around 20 to 25 mph with gusts to near 40 mph at
19Z. Deep mixing has resulted in drier air mixing down with
relative humidity values ranging in the 14 to 20 percent range.
Red flag conditions will continue through the late afternoon and
should abate during the early evening hours. Will keep the Red
Flag Warning in place through 7 PM this evening. Surface low over
southeast Minnesota at 19Z with pre frontal trough from northeast
Nebraska to southwest Kansas. The trough is forecast to move south
into the northern counties this evening shifting the winds to the
west and northwest. The cold front across the Northern Plains this
afternoon will drop south across north central, northeast and east
central Kansas tonight. Forecast soundings show some increase in
the clouds and high resolution models are generating some qpf, but
with the dry air in the low levels it should mainly evaporate
reaching the ground. Cold air advection behind the cold front will
drop temperatures back into the lower 40s tonight. Cool advection
with north to northeast winds will yield highs in the 60s to start
the week on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Monday Night through Wednesday...

WAA will begin Monday night with some hint of lift/saturation above
700mb near the NE border after 06z but lack of instability aloft
should limit any precip chcs so will keep the fcst dry through
12z Tues. By late Tues into Tues night...stronger dynamic lift
associated with the digging trough along with modest moisture
increase should yield scattered showers and t-storms. MLCAPE of
500- 750j/kg with dewpoints in the low 50s seems more realistic
than more aggressive NAM given lack of any legitimate moisture
fetch off the Gulf so severe risk looks minimal at the moment
despite 6km shear around 50kts.

Best chances for rainfall appear to Tues night with main upper
trough and lift behind the sfc low and cold front so will keep
higher chcs then and remove by Weds with windy and cooler weather on
tap.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...

Northwest flow aloft will transition to split, zonal flow aloft with
the central plains being between the northern and southern jet
streams. Fire weather may become a concern on Thursday as min RH
values are forecast to be in the low 20s, along with northwest wind
gusts approaching 30 mph. Dry conditions are expected for the
majority of the extended period. The only precipitation chance
returns Sunday as a weak wave embedded in the southern stream is
forecast to move across the central plains.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will
decrease to 5-10 knots by 01Z. A weak cold front will shift winds
to the northwest overnight and to the northeast by tomorrow
morning. Winds will remain relatively light near 10 knots
throughout the day on Monday. An area of high pressure across the
Great Lakes will begin to shift winds to the south near the end
of period.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Red Flag conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon
hours along with gusty southwest to west winds. Sustained winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 40 will continue. Temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s along with dew points in the upper 20s to
lower 30s have resulted with RH values in the teens across the area.
RH will recover this evening as temperatures cool and winds will
decrease to less than 20 mph so will not extend the Red Flag Warning
beyond 7 PM. Winds shifting to the north this evening and overnight
will affect the behavior of any ongoing fires.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt/Baerg
AVIATION...Baerg
FIRE WEATHER...53

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
616 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Warm afternoon temperatures and strong gusty prefrontal SW winds
will likely necessitate Fire Weather Watch issuance for Tuesday
afternoon.

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Turner

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

322 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH RED
FLAG WARNING...WIND ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING. WE WILL BEGIN
WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. AS NOTED EARLIER TODAY IT WAS
GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL IN MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SO FAR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT OBSERVED SO
FAR TODAY. IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL MEET
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.
HOWEVER WITH WINDS MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN PLACE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUE AT THIS
TIME.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. BASED ON THE KENTUCKY
MESONET AND ASOS SITES PEAK GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 30 TO 40 MPH
SO FAR...WITH A GUST OF 42 MPH RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE LEXINGTON
ASOS AND A 42 MPH GUST AT THE OWEN COUNTY MESONET. WHILE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING GUSTS OF 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

FINALLY...THE FREEZE WARNING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH
INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE LAKE
MICHIGAN VICINITY TO START THE PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE LATER TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR...BUT PATCHY FROST AND
OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...BUT RH BELOW 30 PERCENT
IF NOT NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RATHER STEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPART AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS
VALLEY APPROACHES. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW 30 WITH MID 30S OR HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE PLAINS EXPECTED
TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA INITIALLY BY A COLD FRONT ON WED
NIGHT AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
FREEZE WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. ALSO...
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS AND HOW DEEP IT IS...A FEW
FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

EVEN THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD...STRONG WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 20Z. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN 35 TO 40 KNOT GUSTS
FROM 20Z INTO THE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. A BRIEF STRAY LIGHT SHOWER WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR SJS AND SYM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS VERY
UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-
085>088-104-106>120.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ085>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SBH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016

...Strong Winds Through Early Evening Then Hard Freeze Tonight...

The forecast in the short term is focused on the strong winds
through early this evening, followed by the expected hard freeze for
many areas tonight.

As of mid afternoon, 997 mb surface low was analyzed across
southwest Michigan with its fronts across central Indiana and
Illinois. A secondary front was back across southeastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois.

Wind gusts have been ramping up as expected with maximum heating and
boundary layer mixing. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range have been
reported and upstream observations show 40 to 50 mph gusts. This
swath of strong winds will push into the area, initially out of the
southwest then changing to the west until the second front passes at
which winds will become more northwesterly. The strongest winds with
gusts potentially near 50 mph will be found across southeastern
Indiana and northern Kentucky.

After sunset and as high pressure builds in from the west, winds
will subside as a much cooler and drier air mass settles into the
area. The boundary layer won`t completely decouple until very late
in the night, which may keep temperatures from bottoming out
quickly. Nonetheless, 02.12z guidance came in colder, and as a
result, forecast lows were nudged down a few degrees.

The coldest readings and most likely areas for an extended freeze is
across the northern Bluegrass and southern Indiana, though sheltered
and typical cold spots across all areas could see readings dip into
the upper 20s. Urban areas may only drop to 30 to 32 degrees.

The Freeze Warning has been expanded to cover the entire area,
replacing the Freeze Watch for the southwestern parts of the
forecast area.

Sunday - Sunday Night

Surface high pressure quickly moves to the southeast US while yet
another surface low tracks from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great
Lakes. This system won`t be as a strong and pressure gradient ahead
of it not as impressive. We`ll see light winds in the morning become
steady from the south. Some afternoon gusts to 30 mph will be
possible. Highs 55 to 60 with sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016

The forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
Monday followed by the chance for a frost/freeze Tuesday morning,
then potentially more cold air for later next week.

The aforementioned surface low will drag a cold front through the
area early Monday morning. It`s moisture limited but there could be
enough saturation for light rain showers mainly east of I-65 during
the morning hours. The afternoon should see more clearing as high
pressure builds in from the north.

Monday night into Tuesday morning could be another freeze situation
that needs to be monitored. Forecast lows at this time look to be in
the 30 to 35 range. Areas along/north of the KY parkways would stand
the greatest chance at this point for readings to drop below 32.

02.12z guidance continued previous model cycles showing a surface
low and cold front impacting the area on Wednesday. Southerly flow
moisture transport return ahead of it is noticeable with decent
forcing for ascent as the system comes in during the day. Some
instability as well, so will introduce the chance of thunderstorms.
A model consensus of high POPs /70 percent/ looks good at this
point.

Beyond that system, forecast guidance continues to suggest we`ll see
a deep trough develop over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS.
Unseasonably cold air could spell for more hard freezes for our
area. At this point, daily readings may trend 10 to 15 degrees below
normal Thursday through Saturday. A model consensus has highs in the
low to mid 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Agricultural
interests will need to monitor these days closely as we may see
several morning where a frost to hard freeze possible.

In addition, cyclonic flow with some embedded shortwaves pivoting
through will bring small chances for light showers. Depending on
when these waves pass through, rain showers mixing with some snow
are possible Friday morning.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016

Strong surface low pressure over southeastern Lake Michigan at this
time continues to create strong surface winds around it. Current
wind gusts are up to 30 kts from the west-southwest over central KY,
with gusts of 40-50 kts from the west-northwest (behind the trailing
cold front) over parts of central Illinois. As the surface low moves
east this afternoon and evening, the front will move through central
KY and wind speeds/gusts should increase as well with gusts up to 40
kts at SDF and LEX (not as high as to our north), and up to 30 kts
at BWG. There will be scattered clouds around 5 kft with brief
ceilings possible late afternoon/early evening at LEX around 5-6 kft
(still VFR).

For tonight, the low pulls out rapidly as surface high pressure
builds in quickly causing a fast drop off in winds after dark. By
early Sunday morning, winds should be mainly light and variable as
surface temperatures fall below freezing. On Sunday, VFR conditions
continue with a mainly clear sky and winds becoming southwest during
the day at 10-15 kts.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........TWF