Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/04/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
824 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM 2 AM EDT MON UNTIL 6 PM EDT MON... AS OF 800 PM EDT...WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WE LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED WITH THE PAST UNOFFICIAL 12-HOURS OF PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. PER THE IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CS/SC HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING BEHIND PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR SKIES AT THIS MOMENT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SNOW UPSTREAM WAS FAST APPROACHING. IN FACT...RATHER IMPRESSIVE W-E ORIENTED BANDS WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES WERE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND QUICKLY MOVING ONTO CENTRAL NY. PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITIES...SEEMS THE START TIME PER THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST RANGING FROM THE 80S IN IOWA...TO 20S IN WISCONSIN AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...TOWARD NORTHERN PA...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE NJ COAST MONDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD ALLOW BANDS OF SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E. SOME OF THIS SNOW COULD BE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY WHERE NARROW BANDS CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THESE FORCING MECHANISMS...CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGEST BANDS OF SNOW THAT DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT BY SUNRISE...A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE I-88 CORRIDOR...AND I-90 CORRIDOR IN NY AND MA. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF BEST FRONTOGENESIS...AND MOST INTENSE SNOWBANDS OCCUR. ALSO...THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST SNOW AMTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY START TO RISE A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY...PERIODS OF SNOW...SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY...SHOULD BE ONGOING CLOSE TO AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE MORNING...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. ALSO...SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO MIX WITH...OR EVEN CHANGE TO SLEET/RAIN BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT A SWATH OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 4-8 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES...WITH 2-4 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE A BRIEF TEMP SPIKE TO NEAR OR OVER 40 COULD OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...MORE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS/FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR MON EVE...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH TUE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVOLVING AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINES. THIS WILL CARVE OUT ANOTHER TROUGH AND PROVIDE A CHANGING THERMAL PROFILES. WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A DEPARTING RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPSTREAM AFOREMENTIONED WAVE APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE CHANCE POPS. AS FOR THERMAL PROFILES...WET BULB ZEROS SHOULD KEEP IT MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS OVERALL TRENDS FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR. THERMAL PROFILES DO MODERATE ABOVE ZERO SO WE WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY ADVECT IN AS H850 VALUES FALL BACK BELOW 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN CONTINUE COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS H850 VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C. QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS AS H500 UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...HIGH CHANCE-SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE LIKELY WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES WHERE ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE BAND/S/ MAY SET UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING...W-NW WINDS TOO ARE SUBSIDING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWERING CIGS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TOWARD SNOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SNOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST YET CIGS MAY REMAIN LOW WITHIN IFR CATEGORY. WESTERLY WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 KTS FOR TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN. THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA. THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...TO PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP OF 0.25-0.50 IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MON NT THROUGH WED. A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TODAY AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS. APRIL 3RD: ALBANY NY: LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943 DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891 MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013 GLENS FALLS NY: LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003 POUGHKEEPSIE NY: LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985 APRIL 4TH: ALBANY NY: RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954 LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003 DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955 GLENS FALLS NY: RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954 LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003 POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965 LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975 APRIL 5TH: ALBANY NY: RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982 LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995 GLENS FALLS NY: RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982 LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995 POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964 LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003 APRIL 6TH: ALBANY NY: RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943 GLENS FALLS NY: RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995 POUGHKEEPSIE NY: RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-084. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL/BGM SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...IRL/KL HYDROLOGY...KL CLIMATE...IAA WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
211 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO NERN NJ AND ALONG THE CT COAST AT 02Z PER RADAR. NWLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS. LAST REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WERE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING OVER THE S FORK. BEST CHC FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN COMES TOWARD MRNG WHEN MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE RR QUAD OF THE JET APPROACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT AND TRAVELS NE ALONG THE FRONT. A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO KEEP IN LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS FAR NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO END UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PASSING EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY AFTER THE LOW CENTER`S PASSAGE...COUPLED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE NIGHT SATURDAY. REGARDING WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR VERY LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS BEING A VERY LATE 3RD PERIOD TO 4TH PERIOD EVENT...AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR NOW. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS AND LONG ISLAND SEE GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...THIS IS AT LEAST AN ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH. AS FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...IT BECOMES LIKELY LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF BY NOONTIME ON SUNDAY...BUT FOR ALL LOCATIONS IT LIKELY STARTS AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...RANGING TO A LIGHT COATING TO NO ACCUMULATION OVER LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NJ. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S USING A NAM12/MAV/MET MOS BLEND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX MEANDERING ABOUT HUDSON BAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST WITH RIDGING OUT WEST. POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NIGHT/MON. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE E IS REINFORCED MON INTO TUE. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK FOR WED...BUT YET ANOTHER DEEPENING ERN TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO TYPICAL TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THU INTO FRI. GUSTY WINDS SUN EVE WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WEAK WAA COMMENCES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUN NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA ON MON WITH NRN ZONES HAVING THE BEST CHC FOR POSSIBLE MINOR AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE RECENT WARM WEATHER COULD CONFINE ACCUMS MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES. EARLY MON MORNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. GUSTY SW WINDS MON WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CAA DEVELOPS. GUSTY NLY WINDS CONTINUE ON TUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SERN CANADA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN FROM THE NYC METRO TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST FROM 08Z WEST TO 19Z EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 19Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 06Z - 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOME S BY 16Z THEN SW AT 15G25 KT AFT 18Z. GUSTS DISSIPATE BY 00Z. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGHEST WINDS 09Z-15Z SUNDAY WNW 30-35 KT GUSTS 45-50 KT. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SAT NIGHT...COLD FROPA ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF SQUALL OF HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS...POSSIBLY THUNDER. STRONG NW WINDS 30G45-50KT AFTER FROPA. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...A COATING AT NY/NJ AND LI TERMINALS. .SUNDAY...VFR. STRONG NW WINDS 30G45KT IN THE MORNING... DIMINISHING TO 20-25G35KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT IN THE EVENING. .MON...SNOW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EXPECTED. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT MONDAY NIGHT. .TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT. .WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... PRIMARILY DUE TO A LINGERING SEA SWELL. WINDS THEN PICK UP LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE WIND WATCH. THINKING IS THAT THE OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THIS...BUT WILL KEEP ALL WATERS UNDER THE WATCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...AND THIS BEING A VERY LATE 3RD PERIOD START TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE REALIZED. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVSY LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY SUN EVE...BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN MON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES TO THE S. SCA IS THEN POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. SUB-ADVSY CONDS RETURN FOR MOST OF WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...GC MARINE...JMC/JC/24 HYDROLOGY...JC/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH AFTERNOON... BAND OF PRE FRONTAL STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE NORTH HALF. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING STORMS. CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF NO RAIN. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THERE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND ALSO TWEAKED MAX TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE IT HAS STARTED OFF OVERCAST. && .AVIATION... BASED ON RECENT HRRR MODEL...BAND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND KMCO VCNTY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN KMLB-KVRB BY MID AFTERNOON AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITH +TSRA AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR-HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES. A BAND OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE COAST NORTH OF CANAVERAL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH OF THE CAPE TO THE TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SOME STORMS. A FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE- OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. AM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WX/RADAR...WEITLICH/SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
216 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS THE H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW- LEVEL JET INDICATES A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT IS LOW BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND HRRR PLUS PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW/W ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. AGS/DNL HAVE BRIEFLY GONE VFR BUT EXPECT LOW CIGS TO RETURN WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM S/SW TO W/NW. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
111 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... GUSTS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS UNTIL 10-11Z WHEN GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES. PRIOR TO THIS WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 10-12KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 16KT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MVFR CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS. CURRENT TIMING IS THAT THE MIXED LAYER INITIALLY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY 14-16Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-38KT AND BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE GUSTING BETWEEN 40-44KT FROM A 290-320 DIRECTION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND COULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS...AND MAY PRODUCE A CLOUD BASE AROUND 2500FT AGL. PRECIP QUICKLY EXITS EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR LIFTING CLOUD BASES AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 320 PM CDT A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 BASED ON CURRENT WINDS AND STORM REPORTS...THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL ITS CURRENT 21Z EXPIRATION. WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS INTO THE LOW 50S CONTINUES AT MIDDAY...WITH REPORTS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST SURGE HAS SHIFTED INTO NW IL ALONG THE AXIS OF TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE CHANGE GRADIENT. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE THOUSANDS THE QUAD CITIES METRO AND A FEW OTHER MOSTLY MINOR WIND DAMAGE STORM REPORTS. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ACRS NORTHERN IA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME NORTHEAST BUREAU. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S. THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK. SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2 KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L 30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH. MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY. WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE... THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO... THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREAT. THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND LOWS MAINLY 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BRIEF NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 19Z...ESPECIALLY AT MLI. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW AND THEN VARIABLE AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. DRY AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AT LEAST FROM 15 TO 25 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN- CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA- JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA- MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON. IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL- HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER- PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE. MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND. && $$ UPDATE...SHEETS SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 ...12Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ACRS NORTHERN IA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME NORTHEAST BUREAU. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S. THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK. SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2 KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L 30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH. MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY. WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE... THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO... THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREAT. THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND LOWS MAINLY 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 AS THE MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECK WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING...THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG LLVL WINDS AND TURBULENT CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXCEPT MAYBE AT BRL WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 35-40 KTS. AN APPROACHING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE SFC WINDS TO DECREASE SHARPLY BY EARLY EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM PUSH. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN- CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA- JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA- MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON. IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL- HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER- PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE. MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO IN FIRST PARAGRAPH OF LONG TERM
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
354 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ACRS NORTHERN IA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME NORTHEAST BUREAU. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S. THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK. SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2 KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L 30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH. MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY. WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE... THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO... THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREAT. THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND LOWS MAINLY 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AS 10 TO 20 KT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT CHANGE BY 10Z TO NORTHWEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL BE VERY VERY SHORT LIVED...BUT COULD MOMENTARILY DROP VISIBILITIES. DUE TO THE VERY SHORT NATURE OF THIS...I CHOSE TO USE VCSH TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE WILL SEE WINDS BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 KTS ALL DAY...WITH SOME MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS LIKELY DURING THE 15Z TO 20Z PERIOD SATURDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING SATURDAY...AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR/CLEAR. ERVIN && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES- DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES- KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON. IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS- MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN- WHITESIDE. MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...ERVIN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 828 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 ...Updated to cancel the red flag warning... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 As a surface boundary crosses south central Kansas early this evening the wind speeds had decrease to 10 mph or less. Relative humidity values were also slowly rising so critical fire weather conditions are no longer anticipated. Have cancelled the red flag warning for early this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Very quiet weather. Not much to discuss. Broad ridging west of Kansas, with gentle, dry NW flow aloft. A beautiful spring day with upper 70s and lower 80s expected, and winds veering more NW through late afternoon. A very weak cold front will drift through SW KS this evening accompanied by a northerly wind shift, but that is it. Winds will continue to veer to NE through Monday morning at around 10 mph. Little if any cold air advection, so low temperatures Monday morning still several degrees above early April normals in the lower 40s. Still pleasantly mild Monday in the 70s, with several degrees of cooling, compared to Sunday, mainly across the NE counties. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Tuesday...Unseasonably warm temperatures expected across SW KS, courtesy of downslope SW winds and prefrontal compression. Expect upper 70s north, to mid 80s SE. Strong and gusty SW winds will be most pronounced across the SE zones Tuesday afternoon with gusts of 30-40 mph. Fire weather headlines are likely. Cold front will enter the northern zones early Tuesday afternoon, and progress south quickly, trending winds to strong and gusty NW. Kept low grade slight chances of passing light rain showers, mainly north and east of Dodge City, Tuesday afternoon and evening, before primary vort max passes and subsidence takes over Tuesday night. Moisture will be limited (again) in NW flow aloft. Still, the eastern 1/2 of the CWA may pick up a few hundreths of an inch of rain. This will not be the widespread beneficial rainfall that SW KS desperately needs. Can`t rule out some isolated thunder as well, but kept out of the grids for now. Wednesday...Windy and cooler. GFS 850 mb winds are progged at 50 kts early in the day, before gradually weakening. NW wind gusts of 40-45 mph are expected for a time Wednesday morning. Cold air advection behind the cold front is minimal, with afternoon temperatures only reduced to the upper 60s. Thursday and Friday...Sunny, warmer and dry with breezy north winds. Strong PNA across North America, with strong high pressure ridging over the Rockies, and a strong trough over the Great Lakes. Dry NW flow will result over SW KS. Saturday and beyond...12z ECMWF suggests a synoptic pattern change next weekend, with ridging breaking down, a trough developing over the SW U.S., and dryline evolution over the plains. Kept pops very conservative for now with persistent dry spell continuing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Northwest winds at less than 10 knots will shift to the north northeast early Monday as a weak cold front moves into western Kansas. These northeasterly winds early Monday will gradually veer to the southeast by late day. Wind speeds on Monday are expected to stay in the 10 to 15 knot range. NAM BUFR soundings along with the RAP and HRRR indicating VFR condtions over the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Red flag criteria being observed across the SE fire zones this afternoon, with Medicine Lodge reporting SW wind gusts of 30-35 mph and RH down to 11% as of 3 pm. Will allow the red flag warning to continue. Doubtful the wind criteria will be maintained this evening as the pressure gradients weaken, and the evening shift will likely be able to cancel the red flag warning early before its 9 PM CDT scheduled expiration. Warm afternoon temperatures and strong gusty prefrontal SW winds will likely necessitate Fire Weather Watch issuance for Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 42 75 48 81 / 0 0 10 10 GCK 39 77 46 79 / 0 0 10 20 EHA 41 78 46 83 / 0 0 10 10 LBL 41 77 47 83 / 0 0 10 10 HYS 43 72 49 76 / 0 0 10 20 P28 45 77 50 84 / 0 0 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Burgert SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Burgert FIRE WEATHER...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
628 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 Pressure gradient remains tight across the forecast area with winds sustained around 20 to 25 mph with gusts to near 40 mph at 19Z. Deep mixing has resulted in drier air mixing down with relative humidity values ranging in the 14 to 20 percent range. Red flag conditions will continue through the late afternoon and should abate during the early evening hours. Will keep the Red Flag Warning in place through 7 PM this evening. Surface low over southeast Minnesota at 19Z with pre frontal trough from northeast Nebraska to southwest Kansas. The trough is forecast to move south into the northern counties this evening shifting the winds to the west and northwest. The cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon will drop south across north central, northeast and east central Kansas tonight. Forecast soundings show some increase in the clouds and high resolution models are generating some qpf, but with the dry air in the low levels it should mainly evaporate reaching the ground. Cold air advection behind the cold front will drop temperatures back into the lower 40s tonight. Cool advection with north to northeast winds will yield highs in the 60s to start the week on Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 Monday Night through Wednesday... WAA will begin Monday night with some hint of lift/saturation above 700mb near the NE border after 06z but lack of instability aloft should limit any precip chcs so will keep the fcst dry through 12z Tues. By late Tues into Tues night...stronger dynamic lift associated with the digging trough along with modest moisture increase should yield scattered showers and t-storms. MLCAPE of 500- 750j/kg with dewpoints in the low 50s seems more realistic than more aggressive NAM given lack of any legitimate moisture fetch off the Gulf so severe risk looks minimal at the moment despite 6km shear around 50kts. Best chances for rainfall appear to Tues night with main upper trough and lift behind the sfc low and cold front so will keep higher chcs then and remove by Weds with windy and cooler weather on tap. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Northwest flow aloft will transition to split, zonal flow aloft with the central plains being between the northern and southern jet streams. Fire weather may become a concern on Thursday as min RH values are forecast to be in the low 20s, along with northwest wind gusts approaching 30 mph. Dry conditions are expected for the majority of the extended period. The only precipitation chance returns Sunday as a weak wave embedded in the southern stream is forecast to move across the central plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will decrease to 5-10 knots by 01Z. A weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest overnight and to the northeast by tomorrow morning. Winds will remain relatively light near 10 knots throughout the day on Monday. An area of high pressure across the Great Lakes will begin to shift winds to the south near the end of period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 Red Flag conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon hours along with gusty southwest to west winds. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 40 will continue. Temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s have resulted with RH values in the teens across the area. RH will recover this evening as temperatures cool and winds will decrease to less than 20 mph so will not extend the Red Flag Warning beyond 7 PM. Winds shifting to the north this evening and overnight will affect the behavior of any ongoing fires. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Omitt/Baerg AVIATION...Baerg FIRE WEATHER...53
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 616 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Very quiet weather. Not much to discuss. Broad ridging west of Kansas, with gentle, dry NW flow aloft. A beautiful spring day with upper 70s and lower 80s expected, and winds veering more NW through late afternoon. A very weak cold front will drift through SW KS this evening accompanied by a northerly wind shift, but that is it. Winds will continue to veer to NE through Monday morning at around 10 mph. Little if any cold air advection, so low temperatures Monday morning still several degrees above early April normals in the lower 40s. Still pleasantly mild Monday in the 70s, with several degrees of cooling, compared to Sunday, mainly across the NE counties. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Tuesday...Unseasonably warm temperatures expected across SW KS, courtesy of downslope SW winds and prefrontal compression. Expect upper 70s north, to mid 80s SE. Strong and gusty SW winds will be most pronounced across the SE zones Tuesday afternoon with gusts of 30-40 mph. Fire weather headlines are likely. Cold front will enter the northern zones early Tuesday afternoon, and progress south quickly, trending winds to strong and gusty NW. Kept low grade slight chances of passing light rain showers, mainly north and east of Dodge City, Tuesday afternoon and evening, before primary vort max passes and subsidence takes over Tuesday night. Moisture will be limited (again) in NW flow aloft. Still, the eastern 1/2 of the CWA may pick up a few hundreths of an inch of rain. This will not be the widespread beneficial rainfall that SW KS desperately needs. Can`t rule out some isolated thunder as well, but kept out of the grids for now. Wednesday...Windy and cooler. GFS 850 mb winds are progged at 50 kts early in the day, before gradually weakening. NW wind gusts of 40-45 mph are expected for a time Wednesday morning. Cold air advection behind the cold front is minimal, with afternoon temperatures only reduced to the upper 60s. Thursday and Friday...Sunny, warmer and dry with breezy north winds. Strong PNA across North America, with strong high pressure ridging over the Rockies, and a strong trough over the Great Lakes. Dry NW flow will result over SW KS. Saturday and beyond...12z ECMWF suggests a synoptic pattern change next weekend, with ridging breaking down, a trough developing over the SW U.S., and dryline evolution over the plains. Kept pops very conservative for now with persistent dry spell continuing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Northwest winds at less than 10 knots will shift to the north northeast early Monday as a weak cold front moves into western Kansas. These northeasterly winds early Monday will gradually veer to the southeast by late day. Wind speeds on Monday are expected to stay in the 10 to 15 knot range. NAM BUFR soundings along with the RAP and HRRR indicating VFR condtions over the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Red flag criteria being observed across the SE fire zones this afternoon, with Medicine Lodge reporting SW wind gusts of 30-35 mph and RH down to 11% as of 3 pm. Will allow the red flag warning to continue. Doubtful the wind criteria will be maintained this evening as the pressure gradients weaken, and the evening shift will likely be able to cancel the red flag warning early before its 9 PM CDT scheduled expiration. Warm afternoon temperatures and strong gusty prefrontal SW winds will likely necessitate Fire Weather Watch issuance for Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 42 75 48 81 / 0 0 10 10 GCK 39 77 46 79 / 0 0 10 20 EHA 41 78 46 83 / 0 0 10 10 LBL 41 77 47 83 / 0 0 10 10 HYS 43 72 49 76 / 0 0 10 20 P28 45 77 50 84 / 0 0 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-080-081- 088>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Burgert FIRE WEATHER...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH RED FLAG WARNING...WIND ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING. WE WILL BEGIN WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. AS NOTED EARLIER TODAY IT WAS GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL IN MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SO FAR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL MEET THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. HOWEVER WITH WINDS MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUE AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. BASED ON THE KENTUCKY MESONET AND ASOS SITES PEAK GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 30 TO 40 MPH SO FAR...WITH A GUST OF 42 MPH RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE LEXINGTON ASOS AND A 42 MPH GUST AT THE OWEN COUNTY MESONET. WHILE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED IN OUR FORECAST AREA...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING GUSTS OF 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FINALLY...THE FREEZE WARNING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY TO START THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY THE SFC LOW TRACKING TO OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR...BUT PATCHY FROST AND OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...BUT RH BELOW 30 PERCENT IF NOT NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RATHER STEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPART AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY APPROACHES. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 30 WITH MID 30S OR HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE PLAINS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA INITIALLY BY A COLD FRONT ON WED NIGHT AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FREEZE WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. ALSO... DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS AND HOW DEEP IT IS...A FEW FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 EVEN THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...STRONG WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 20Z. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN 35 TO 40 KNOT GUSTS FROM 20Z INTO THE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. A BRIEF STRAY LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SJS AND SYM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ069-080- 085>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ085>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SBH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 259 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 ...Strong Winds Through Early Evening Then Hard Freeze Tonight... The forecast in the short term is focused on the strong winds through early this evening, followed by the expected hard freeze for many areas tonight. As of mid afternoon, 997 mb surface low was analyzed across southwest Michigan with its fronts across central Indiana and Illinois. A secondary front was back across southeastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Wind gusts have been ramping up as expected with maximum heating and boundary layer mixing. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range have been reported and upstream observations show 40 to 50 mph gusts. This swath of strong winds will push into the area, initially out of the southwest then changing to the west until the second front passes at which winds will become more northwesterly. The strongest winds with gusts potentially near 50 mph will be found across southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. After sunset and as high pressure builds in from the west, winds will subside as a much cooler and drier air mass settles into the area. The boundary layer won`t completely decouple until very late in the night, which may keep temperatures from bottoming out quickly. Nonetheless, 02.12z guidance came in colder, and as a result, forecast lows were nudged down a few degrees. The coldest readings and most likely areas for an extended freeze is across the northern Bluegrass and southern Indiana, though sheltered and typical cold spots across all areas could see readings dip into the upper 20s. Urban areas may only drop to 30 to 32 degrees. The Freeze Warning has been expanded to cover the entire area, replacing the Freeze Watch for the southwestern parts of the forecast area. Sunday - Sunday Night Surface high pressure quickly moves to the southeast US while yet another surface low tracks from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great Lakes. This system won`t be as a strong and pressure gradient ahead of it not as impressive. We`ll see light winds in the morning become steady from the south. Some afternoon gusts to 30 mph will be possible. Highs 55 to 60 with sunny skies. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 The forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances Monday followed by the chance for a frost/freeze Tuesday morning, then potentially more cold air for later next week. The aforementioned surface low will drag a cold front through the area early Monday morning. It`s moisture limited but there could be enough saturation for light rain showers mainly east of I-65 during the morning hours. The afternoon should see more clearing as high pressure builds in from the north. Monday night into Tuesday morning could be another freeze situation that needs to be monitored. Forecast lows at this time look to be in the 30 to 35 range. Areas along/north of the KY parkways would stand the greatest chance at this point for readings to drop below 32. 02.12z guidance continued previous model cycles showing a surface low and cold front impacting the area on Wednesday. Southerly flow moisture transport return ahead of it is noticeable with decent forcing for ascent as the system comes in during the day. Some instability as well, so will introduce the chance of thunderstorms. A model consensus of high POPs /70 percent/ looks good at this point. Beyond that system, forecast guidance continues to suggest we`ll see a deep trough develop over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS. Unseasonably cold air could spell for more hard freezes for our area. At this point, daily readings may trend 10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday. A model consensus has highs in the low to mid 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Agricultural interests will need to monitor these days closely as we may see several morning where a frost to hard freeze possible. In addition, cyclonic flow with some embedded shortwaves pivoting through will bring small chances for light showers. Depending on when these waves pass through, rain showers mixing with some snow are possible Friday morning. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016 Strong surface low pressure over southeastern Lake Michigan at this time continues to create strong surface winds around it. Current wind gusts are up to 30 kts from the west-southwest over central KY, with gusts of 40-50 kts from the west-northwest (behind the trailing cold front) over parts of central Illinois. As the surface low moves east this afternoon and evening, the front will move through central KY and wind speeds/gusts should increase as well with gusts up to 40 kts at SDF and LEX (not as high as to our north), and up to 30 kts at BWG. There will be scattered clouds around 5 kft with brief ceilings possible late afternoon/early evening at LEX around 5-6 kft (still VFR). For tonight, the low pulls out rapidly as surface high pressure builds in quickly causing a fast drop off in winds after dark. By early Sunday morning, winds should be mainly light and variable as surface temperatures fall below freezing. On Sunday, VFR conditions continue with a mainly clear sky and winds becoming southwest during the day at 10-15 kts. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Short Term........ZT Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........TWF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 259 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 ...Strong Winds Through Early Evening Then Hard Freeze Tonight... The forecast in the short term is focused on the strong winds through early this evening, followed by the expected hard freeze for many areas tonight. As of mid afternoon, 997 mb surface low was analyzed across southwest Michigan with its fronts across central Indiana and Illinois. A secondary front was back across southeastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Wind gusts have been ramping up as expected with maximum heating and boundary layer mixing. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range have been reported and upstream observations show 40 to 50 mph gusts. This swath of strong winds will push into the area, initially out of the southwest then changing to the west until the second front passes at which winds will become more northwesterly. The strongest winds with gusts potentially near 50 mph will be found across southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. After sunset and as high pressure builds in from the west, winds will subside as a much cooler and drier air mass settles into the area. The boundary layer won`t completely decouple until very late in the night, which may keep temperatures from bottoming out quickly. Nonetheless, 02.12z guidance came in colder, and as a result, forecast lows were nudged down a few degrees. The coldest readings and most likely areas for an extended freeze is across the northern Bluegrass and southern Indiana, though sheltered and typical cold spots across all areas could see readings dip into the upper 20s. Urban areas may only drop to 30 to 32 degrees. The Freeze Warning has been expanded to cover the entire area, replacing the Freeze Watch for the southwestern parts of the forecast area. Sunday - Sunday Night Surface high pressure quickly moves to the southeast US while yet another surface low tracks from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great Lakes. This system won`t be as a strong and pressure gradient ahead of it not as impressive. We`ll see light winds in the morning become steady from the south. Some afternoon gusts to 30 mph will be possible. Highs 55 to 60 with sunny skies. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 The forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances Monday followed by the chance for a frost/freeze Tuesday morning, then potentially more cold air for later next week. The aforementioned surface low will drag a cold front through the area early Monday morning. It`s moisture limited but there could be enough saturation for light rain showers mainly east of I-65 during the morning hours. The afternoon should see more clearing as high pressure builds in from the north. Monday night into Tuesday morning could be another freeze situation that needs to be monitored. Forecast lows at this time look to be in the 30 to 35 range. Areas along/north of the KY parkways would stand the greatest chance at this point for readings to drop below 32. 02.12z guidance continued previous model cycles showing a surface low and cold front impacting the area on Wednesday. Southerly flow moisture transport return ahead of it is noticeable with decent forcing for ascent as the system comes in during the day. Some instability as well, so will introduce the chance of thunderstorms. A model consensus of high POPs /70 percent/ looks good at this point. Beyond that system, forecast guidance continues to suggest we`ll see a deep trough develop over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS. Unseasonably cold air could spell for more hard freezes for our area. At this point, daily readings may trend 10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday. A model consensus has highs in the low to mid 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Agricultural interests will need to monitor these days closely as we may see several morning where a frost to hard freeze possible. In addition, cyclonic flow with some embedded shortwaves pivoting through will bring small chances for light showers. Depending on when these waves pass through, rain showers mixing with some snow are possible Friday morning. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016 Strong surface low pressure over southeastern Lake Michigan at this time continues to create strong surface winds around it. Current wind gusts are up to 30 kts from the west-southwest over central KY, with gusts of 40-50 kts from the west-northwest (behind the trailing cold front) over parts of central Illinois. As the surface low moves east this afternoon and evening, the front will move through central KY and wind speeds/gusts should increase as well with gusts up to 40 kts at SDF and LEX (not as high as to our north), and up to 30 kts at BWG. There will be scattered clouds around 5 kft with brief ceilings possible late afternoon/early evening at LEX around 5-6 kft (still VFR). For tonight, the low pulls out rapidly as surface high pressure builds in quickly causing a fast drop off in winds after dark. By early Sunday morning, winds should be mainly light and variable as surface temperatures fall below freezing. On Sunday, VFR conditions continue with a mainly clear sky and winds becoming southwest during the day at 10-15 kts. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Short Term........ZT Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........TWF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 146 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Upstream observations continue to be quite impressive with several sites gusting 50 to 60 mph across eastern Iowa into Illinois. HRRR and RAP continue to suggest we`ll potentially mix down 45 to 50 kt winds across southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky from mid afternoon to very early this evening. As a result, confidence in some higher gusts has increased...and we`ll go with some 50-55 mph gust wording for our very far north/northeast areas. Other locations (rest of the area) should still see 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Focus today remains on the strong winds expected to surge southeast into our area on the heels of an impressive frontal passage. 999 mb surface low over Wisconsin is forecast to drop near Cleveland by late this afternoon. A couple surface fronts will swing through our area. Latest HRRR and other hi-res models are quite impressive with mixing down 45 to 50 kt winds across southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky. Upstream currently there have been a few 45 to 50 kt wind reports in southeastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Our forecast target of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, strongest over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, looks good for now. No changes to any of the headlines at this point, but certainly parts of the area will be at the high-end advisory range. .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 ...Very Windy This Afternoon... One upper trough pushing through the region this hour will get replaced by another one moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon. A deep surface low pressure will be associated with this feature, providing a tight pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley as the attendant cold front rushes toward us. Statistical guidance has some of the highest numbers I`ve seen in awhile, and forecast soundings easily show the potential for 40-50 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Latest HRRR has peak gusts in the 40-50 kt range north of the southern KY parkways starting between 18-19Z through 00Z. The question mark however is how much the cloud cover moving in with this front will limit our ability to mix into those higher gusts. For this update will bump up the gust wording to 50 mph for the northern advisory area and expand the advisory southward as well as extend the timing a little into the evening. The southern area should see winds closer to our advisory threshold of ~40 mph. Those winds should start tapering off quickly after sunset as high pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds at first should keep us from dropping off temperature-wise in the evening, but with clear skies and calming winds after that as well as drier air in place, expect temperatures to drop quickly after midnight. Lows easily should reach the freezing mark for all in the current freeze watch area and likely a few more counties south of that area. Louisville downtown/SDF may not hit, but enough of the rest of the county likely will. Believe there is at least a 50% chance for the rest of our forecast area to hit that low, as the southwest half will have the lighter winds earlier, so will go ahead and expand the freeze watch to include the rest of our counties. Thanks a bunch to all neighboring forecast offices for extensive collaboration on both of these headlines! Sunday, after the cold start, we should recover to temperatures similar to today`s highs, if not a degree or two warmer, likely the upper 50s to around 60. Winds will pick up from the southwest late in the period as another low moves into the Midwest. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Remember the cooler temperatures help to keep the severe weather threat down! That said, this period contains a couple more chances for frost/freeze conditions. The first comes behind the cold front associated with that low mentioned above moving east across Indiana/Ohio Monday. The front will take its time to clear our region. Moisture along the front is fairly low, but probably enough for some light QPF. High pressure will build in from the north behind this front. Once again, how quickly the winds die down at night will determine the frost potential, but regardless, another freeze looks possible over a similar area to the freeze watch issued yesterday. That high will shift off to the east Tuesday, ahead of the next low, this time coming in from the Central Plains. Tuesday will be the transition day temperature-wise, with highs Wednesday flipping to a little above normal. We may have some rain Wednesday morning to go with lower high temperatures. This front will have a little more moisture to work with, and consequently have gone with higher pops for Wednesday. Following this system, the GFS brings in another clipper Thursday, with precip lingering into Friday as a series of vortmaxes pass over us. Depending on the exact timing of this precip, we could see somey light early-April snows. The GEM is a little slower with the clipper, instead holding it off till Thursday night. A quick model blend gives chance pops for Thursday and then slight chances lingering in the east Thursday night and Friday. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016 Strong surface low pressure over southeastern Lake Michigan at this time continues to create strong surface winds around it. Current wind gusts are up to 30 kts from the west-southwest over central KY, with gusts of 40-50 kts from the west-northwest (behind the trailing cold front) over parts of central Illinois. As the surface low moves east this afternoon and evening, the front will move through central KY and wind speeds/gusts should increase as well with gusts up to 40 kts at SDF and LEX (not as high as to our north), and up to 30 kts at BWG. There will be scattered clouds around 5 kft with brief ceilings possible late afternoon/early evening at LEX around 5-6 kft (still VFR). For tonight, the low pulls out rapidly as surface high pressure builds in quickly causing a fast drop off in winds after dark. By early Sunday morning, winds should be mainly light and variable as surface temperatures fall below freezing. On Sunday, VFR conditions continue with a mainly clear sky and winds becoming southwest during the day at 10-15 kts. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077- 078. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ026- 061>063-070>076-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Update.........ZT Short Term.....RJS Long Term......RJS Aviation.......TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL APPEARS CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN. WHERE THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING THIS WILL TEMPER THE TEMPERATURE RISE AND HELP TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY A LITTLE HIGHER LONGER INTO THE DAY. CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS RUNNING 50 TO 65 PERCENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE A CLOSE CALL FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RED FLAG WARNING WOULD HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET WITHIN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AREA AS WELL. AS SUCH THE PLAN IS TO LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS IS AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. ALREADY SEEING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AND WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET MORE SUN. WITH THAT IN MIND THE WINDS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE WIND CRITERIA LOOK ON TARGET. UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 ...VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING... SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG H925-H850 JET RUNNING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS ALOFT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS H850 TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN -7 AND -10 C. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT BE REALIZED WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY TO START THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY THE SFC LOW TRACKING TO OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR...BUT PATCHY FROST AND OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...BUT RH BELOW 30 PERCENT IF NOT NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RATHER STEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPART AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY APPROACHES. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 30 WITH MID 30S OR HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE PLAINS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA INITIALLY BY A COLD FRONT ON WED NIGHT AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FREEZE WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. ALSO... DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS AND HOW DEEP IT IS...A FEW FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST TERMINALS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER NEAR SYM AND SJS WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-085>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ085>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RAY
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 919 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Focus today remains on the strong winds expected to surge southeast into our area on the heels of an impressive frontal passage. 999 mb surface low over Wisconsin is forecast to drop near Cleveland by late this afternoon. A couple surface fronts will swing through our area. Latest HRRR and other hi-res models are quite impressive with mixing down 45 to 50 kt winds across southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky. Upstream currently there have been a few 45 to 50 kt wind reports in southeastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Our forecast target of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, strongest over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, looks good for now. No changes to any of the headlines at this point, but certainly parts of the area will be at the high-end advisory range. .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 ...Very Windy This Afternoon... One upper trough pushing through the region this hour will get replaced by another one moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon. A deep surface low pressure will be associated with this feature, providing a tight pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley as the attendant cold front rushes toward us. Statistical guidance has some of the highest numbers I`ve seen in awhile, and forecast soundings easily show the potential for 40-50 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Latest HRRR has peak gusts in the 40-50 kt range north of the southern KY parkways starting between 18-19Z through 00Z. The question mark however is how much the cloud cover moving in with this front will limit our ability to mix into those higher gusts. For this update will bump up the gust wording to 50 mph for the northern advisory area and expand the advisory southward as well as extend the timing a little into the evening. The southern area should see winds closer to our advisory threshold of ~40 mph. Those winds should start tapering off quickly after sunset as high pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds at first should keep us from dropping off temperature-wise in the evening, but with clear skies and calming winds after that as well as drier air in place, expect temperatures to drop quickly after midnight. Lows easily should reach the freezing mark for all in the current freeze watch area and likely a few more counties south of that area. Louisville downtown/SDF may not hit, but enough of the rest of the county likely will. Believe there is at least a 50% chance for the rest of our forecast area to hit that low, as the southwest half will have the lighter winds earlier, so will go ahead and expand the freeze watch to include the rest of our counties. Thanks a bunch to all neighboring forecast offices for extensive collaboration on both of these headlines! Sunday, after the cold start, we should recover to temperatures similar to today`s highs, if not a degree or two warmer, likely the upper 50s to around 60. Winds will pick up from the southwest late in the period as another low moves into the Midwest. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Remember the cooler temperatures help to keep the severe weather threat down! That said, this period contains a couple more chances for frost/freeze conditions. The first comes behind the cold front associated with that low mentioned above moving east across Indiana/Ohio Monday. The front will take its time to clear our region. Moisture along the front is fairly low, but probably enough for some light QPF. High pressure will build in from the north behind this front. Once again, how quickly the winds die down at night will determine the frost potential, but regardless, another freeze looks possible over a similar area to the freeze watch issued yesterday. That high will shift off to the east Tuesday, ahead of the next low, this time coming in from the Central Plains. Tuesday will be the transition day temperature-wise, with highs Wednesday flipping to a little above normal. We may have some rain Wednesday morning to go with lower high temperatures. This front will have a little more moisture to work with, and consequently have gone with higher pops for Wednesday. Following this system, the GFS brings in another clipper Thursday, with precip lingering into Friday as a series of vortmaxes pass over us. Depending on the exact timing of this precip, we could see somey light early-April snows. The GEM is a little slower with the clipper, instead holding it off till Thursday night. A quick model blend gives chance pops for Thursday and then slight chances lingering in the east Thursday night and Friday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 630 AM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016 While VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period, there will still be impacts to aviation today as very gusty west winds affect all sites. These westerly winds will increase through the afternoon hours, sustained around 20-25 knots with gusts of 30- 35+ knots, especially at SDF and LEX. In fact, would not be surprised to see LEX/SDF gust near 40 knots for an hour or two late this afternoon. The westerly component of these winds will make for strong crosswinds on the parallel runways at SDF. There will be some passing mid/high clouds as well, but any cigs will remain VFR through the day today. For tonight, high pressure will rapidly build in behind a cold front passing through. This will put an end to the gusts while shifting winds to a more northwesterly direction. Winds will go mainly light and variable by early Sunday morning as high pressure builds into the region. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077- 078. Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ026- 061>063-070>076-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Update.........ZT Short Term.....RJS Long Term......RJS Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 ...VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING... SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG H925-H850 JET RUNNING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS ALOFT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS H850 TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN -7 AND -10 C. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT BE REALIZED WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY TO START THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY THE SFC LOW TRACKING TO OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR...BUT PATCHY FROST AND OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...BUT RH BELOW 30 PERCENT IF NOT NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RATHER STEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPART AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY APPROACHES. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 30 WITH MID 30S OR HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE PLAINS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA INITIALLY BY A COLD FRONT ON WED NIGHT AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FREEZE WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. ALSO... DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS AND HOW DEEP IT IS...A FEW FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST TERMINALS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER NEAR SYM AND SJS WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-085>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ085>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RAY
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 632 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 ...Very Windy This Afternoon... One upper trough pushing through the region this hour will get replaced by another one moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon. A deep surface low pressure will be associated with this feature, providing a tight pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley as the attendant cold front rushes toward us. Statistical guidance has some of the highest numbers I`ve seen in awhile, and forecast soundings easily show the potential for 40-50 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Latest HRRR has peak gusts in the 40-50 kt range north of the southern KY parkways starting between 18-19Z through 00Z. The question mark however is how much the cloud cover moving in with this front will limit our ability to mix into those higher gusts. For this update will bump up the gust wording to 50 mph for the northern advisory area and expand the advisory southward as well as extend the timing a little into the evening. The southern area should see winds closer to our advisory threshold of ~40 mph. Those winds should start tapering off quickly after sunset as high pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds at first should keep us from dropping off temperature-wise in the evening, but with clear skies and calming winds after that as well as drier air in place, expect temperatures to drop quickly after midnight. Lows easily should reach the freezing mark for all in the current freeze watch area and likely a few more counties south of that area. Louisville downtown/SDF may not hit, but enough of the rest of the county likely will. Believe there is at least a 50% chance for the rest of our forecast area to hit that low, as the southwest half will have the lighter winds earlier, so will go ahead and expand the freeze watch to include the rest of our counties. Thanks a bunch to all neighboring forecast offices for extensive collaboration on both of these headlines! Sunday, after the cold start, we should recover to temperatures similar to today`s highs, if not a degree or two warmer, likely the upper 50s to around 60. Winds will pick up from the southwest late in the period as another low moves into the Midwest. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Remember the cooler temperatures help to keep the severe weather threat down! That said, this period contains a couple more chances for frost/freeze conditions. The first comes behind the cold front associated with that low mentioned above moving east across Indiana/Ohio Monday. The front will take its time to clear our region. Moisture along the front is fairly low, but probably enough for some light QPF. High pressure will build in from the north behind this front. Once again, how quickly the winds die down at night will determine the frost potential, but regardless, another freeze looks possible over a similar area to the freeze watch issued yesterday. That high will shift off to the east Tuesday, ahead of the next low, this time coming in from the Central Plains. Tuesday will be the transition day temperature-wise, with highs Wednesday flipping to a little above normal. We may have some rain Wednesday morning to go with lower high temperatures. This front will have a little more moisture to work with, and consequently have gone with higher pops for Wednesday. Following this system, the GFS brings in another clipper Thursday, with precip lingering into Friday as a series of vortmaxes pass over us. Depending on the exact timing of this precip, we could see somey light early-April snows. The GEM is a little slower with the clipper, instead holding it off till Thursday night. A quick model blend gives chance pops for Thursday and then slight chances lingering in the east Thursday night and Friday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 630 AM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016 While VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period, there will still be impacts to aviation today as very gusty west winds affect all sites. These westerly winds will increase through the afternoon hours, sustained around 20-25 knots with gusts of 30- 35+ knots, especially at SDF and LEX. In fact, would not be surprised to see LEX/SDF gust near 40 knots for an hour or two late this afternoon. The westerly component of these winds will make for strong crosswinds on the parallel runways at SDF. There will be some passing mid/high clouds as well, but any cigs will remain VFR through the day today. For tonight, high pressure will rapidly build in behind a cold front passing through. This will put an end to the gusts while shifting winds to a more northwesterly direction. Winds will go mainly light and variable by early Sunday morning as high pressure builds into the region. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077- 078. Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ026- 061>063-070>076-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Short Term........RJS Long Term.........RJS Aviation..........KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 ...VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING... SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG H925-H850 JET RUNNING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS ALOFT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS H850 TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN -7 AND -10 C. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT BE REALIZED WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST TERMINALS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-085>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ085>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RAY
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 331 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016 The two main concerns in this forecast are strong winds this afternoon and freezing temps tonight. Both events are likely to be focused mainly north and east of a kmdh to khop line, courtesy of a deepening low pressure system that will move east across the Great Lakes region. Westerly low level winds will ramp up through the day as the system deepens to our north today. RAP and NAM wind profiles both indicate around 40 knots at 925 mb during the latter part of the afternoon over the Wind Advisory area, which includes southwest Indiana and adjacent counties. Bufkit data indicates mixing heights will be very high this afternoon, briefly reaching 750 mb. Therefore, gusts to 40 knots will be forecast in the advisory area, which will be expanded slightly to include kmvn as well as more of nw Kentucky. Low level wind fields are weaker farther south and west, where gusts should generally be under 40 mph. Plenty of sunshine and dry air should contribute to strong mixing and elevated fire potential, mainly where fuels are drier across the Ozark foothills. The next item on the docket is near-freezing temps late tonight. A weak surface high pressure center will pass directly over the forecast area around 12z Sunday. This will allow winds to diminish to nearly calm by morning. However, winds may be slow to die because the very deep mixed layer will take much of the night to stabilize. Since winds are expected to stay up well into the night and the air will be quite dry, a widespread frost is not expected. However, a light freeze is quite possible in much of southern IL, southwest IN, and nw Kentucky. Will keep the Freeze Watch in effect and even expand it into parts of western Kentucky. On Sunday, winds will become southerly on the back side of retreating high pressure. 850 mb temps will increase to around plus 8, which would normally support highs of 70 or better. However, surface temps will be suppressed by a fairly low subsidence inversion based around 925 mb. Highs should be mainly in the lower to mid 60s. On Monday, a cold front will sink southward across our region. The models continue to trend drier with this feature, and pops will be kept at or below 20 percent. In the wake of the front, lows could again be near freezing, especially east of the Mississippi River Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Forecast issues in the long term include chances for precipitation Tuesday night through Thursday night. Frost may also be possible in our northern counties Thursday night. In the wake of a front on Monday, Tuesday will be dry and seasonably cool under the influence of weak mid level ridging. Highs will only reach into the middle and upper 60s. Winds will shift back to the south late in the day in advance of the next storm system. This storm system will drop south out of the upper level ridge to the west. Models are in decent agreement showing there will be enough moisture to include showers across much of the area beginning Tuesday night and encompassing the entire region Wednesday and Wednesday night before moving east on Thursday. Models show enough instability to include thunder through most of the period. Cool dry high pressure drops south across the region to end the week with dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures with highs around 60. Frost may be possible across the I-64 corridor once again with lows dipping down into the middle 30s. Temperatures begin a slow warm up on Friday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016 Few if any clouds today, with gusty west winds. Frequent gusts 20-30 kts. A few higher gusts across southeast IL, into southwest IN. Mainly clear tonight with decreasing winds. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-082-083-087. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-082-083. MO...None. IN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for INZ081- 082-085>088. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ014>022. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ018>020. && $$ SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...CN/MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
954 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IMPACT CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH RAIN AND SNOW LOOK LIKELY FOR MID WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 WE HAVE TWEAKED THE WEATHER TYPES A LITTLE THIS EVENING..AND TRIED TO TIME THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. WE WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING ONCE THE PCPN COMES TO AN END UP NORTH. A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR JUST NORTH OF I-96. THESE ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL MENTION REDUCED IMPACTS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL LOWER MI. THAT SAID...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP AND THE H850 WARM SURGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS UNDERWHELMING WITH THIS EVENT...COULD SEE ENOUGH WINTRY MIX OR JUST SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER COINCIDENT WITH FALLING SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS TONIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE I WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED CANCELING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER THE ADVISORY. COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-96 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER. I DON`T SEE MUCH MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW A NARROW LINE OF MODEST CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION TONIGHT. I LEFT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. MONDAY WE ARE SQUARELY IN CAA ONCE AGAIN AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE HURON FOR A TIME. IF WINDS ARE CLOSER TO DUE NORTH THEN THIS WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NEAR/SOUTH OF I-96. NORTH OF THERE...TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-96. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR PCPN TO FALL AS ALL SNOW THAT AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. RELATIVELY HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT RANGE ARE MOST PROBABLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MKG TO ALMA. PCPN WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHTER MIXED PCPN MAY LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 RATHER SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT FROM THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EXPECTED. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. DETAIL BEYOND 12Z MONDAY HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THESE TAFS...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CIGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE QUICKEST TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-94 AT THE AZO...BTL...JXN TERMINALS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY PRIMARILY AT THE MKG...GRR...LAN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 SCA CONTINUES THROUGH LATER MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES. THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT OUT ON THE LAKE AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THOUGH LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL... MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040- 043>046-051-052. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ848-849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844-845. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846-847. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ SYNOPSIS...HOVING SHORT TERM...HOVING LONG TERM...LAURENS AVIATION...TJT HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IMPACT CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH RAIN AND SNOW LOOK LIKELY FOR MID WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL MENTION REDUCED IMPACTS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL LOWER MI. THAT SAID...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP AND THE H850 WARM SURGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS UNDERWHELMING WITH THIS EVENT...COULD SEE ENOUGH WINTRY MIX OR JUST SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER COINCIDENT WITH FALLING SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS TONIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE I WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED CANCELING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER THE ADVISORY. COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-96 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER. I DON`T SEE MUCH MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW A NARROW LINE OF MODEST CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION TONIGHT. I LEFT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. MONDAY WE ARE SQUARELY IN CAA ONCE AGAIN AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE HURON FOR A TIME. IF WINDS ARE CLOSER TO DUE NORTH THEN THIS WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NEAR/SOUTH OF I-96. NORTH OF THERE...TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-96. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR PCPN TO FALL AS ALL SNOW THAT AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. RELATIVELY HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT RANGE ARE MOST PROBABLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MKG TO ALMA. PCPN WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHTER MIXED PCPN MAY LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 RATHER SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT FROM THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EXPECTED. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. DETAIL BEYOND 12Z MONDAY HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THESE TAFS...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CIGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH THE QUICKEST TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-94 AT THE AZO...BTL...JXN TERMINALS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY PRIMARILY AT THE MKG...GRR...LAN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 SCA CONTINUES THROUGH LATER MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES. THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT OUT ON THE LAKE AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THOUGH LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL... MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040- 043>046-051-052. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ848-849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844-845. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846-847. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HOVING SHORT TERM...HOVING LONG TERM...LAURENS AVIATION...TJT HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN A RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN CANADA/THE NE STATES. A CLIPPER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU NRN MN. THE DPVA AND INSENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX IN SE CANADA OVERCAME SOME INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WDSPRD SN OVER UPR MI. THE HEAVIEST SN UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FELL IN A WNW TO ENE SWATH OVER THE CWA FM THE KEWEENAW TO ESCANBA AND MANISTIQUE UNDER FAIRLY SHARP BUT SLOPED H75- 65 FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL OR PRES GRADIENT SHOWN ON THE 285K ISENTROPIC SFC. NEGATIVE EPV IN THE H7-3 LYR AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM AND RELATED TO FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALLY HIER AMNTS. VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB LIMITED SN TOTALS OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV ARE MOVING NW-SE ACRS THE CWA...SO THE SN IS DIMINISHING NW-SE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID LVL DRYING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING RELATED TO THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS MORE PRONOUCNED. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS PRESENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C AT YPL AND -24C AT CHURCHILL IN FAR NRN MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS TO THE N OF THE LK IS ALSO RATHER DRY...WITH SFC DEWPTS WELL BLO ZERO. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON GOING WINTER WX ADVYS/SN TOTALS AND THEN TRANSITION TO LK EFFECT SN TNGT INTO MON AS THE COLDER AIR TO THE N FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS. LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE PRONOUCNED DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV AND ANOTHER TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY TNGT...EARLIER EXIT OF THE SHARPER H75-65 FGEN/NEGATIVE EPV BY 00Z AS WELL AS WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS SUGGEST THE DIMINISING SN TRENDS WL CONTINUE. BUT ALLOWED THE ADVYS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TO GO TO 00Z AS THIS AREA WL BE UNDER AXIS OF LINGERING SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME HIER H85-5 RH ON THE CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. AFTER THE STEADY SN/HIER POPS EXIT EARLY THIS EVNG...UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL CAUSE THE SYNOPTIC LIGHT SN TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. AS THIS NE FLOW DRAGS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C TO -18C AND LINGERING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC EXITS...THE SYNOTPIC PCPN WL TRANSITION TO LES. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/SOME LLVL CNVGC/INSTABILITY... INFLUX OF DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. MON...ALTHOUGH CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -18C RANGE WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES AND THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...ARRVIAL OF SFC HI PRES/ACYC LLVL FLOW AS WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING WL CAUSE LES TO DIMINISH TO ISOLD SN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY LLVL AIR WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SN SHOWERS. TEMPS WL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL... ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE CLDS LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E UNDER MORE STUBBORN H85 THERMAL TROF. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN NOAM RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW WILL BRING PCPN AND A SLIGHT WARM UP INTO THE NRN CONUS FROM TUE THROUGH WED. MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVE IN AND FRESH SNOWCOVER...EXPECT MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS INLAND. HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST...MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 20. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL SURGE OF WAA (300K ISENTROPIC LIFT) BRINGING SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY 06Z/WED. CONSENSUS QPF IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE BY 12Z/WED WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF WEST SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 10/1. WED...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNFICANTLY GREATER AS THE GFS/GEM SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WHICH DIGS THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAKER SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WOULD LINGER. THE FCST MAINTAINS LIKELY POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF...MAINLY JUST LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING S CNTRL FOR A MIX WITH RAIN. WED NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C BY 12Z THU WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER GEM/GFS. A TRAILING CLIPPER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA BUT MAY CLIP THE FAR WEST THU. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR LES AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE BY 00Z/FRI. ENOUGH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS FOR LES FAVORED BY NRLY FLOW. SAT-SUN...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND CONSISTENCY LOWER AS THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN CONUS TROUGH. LOWER END (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR WAA AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS TO A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NNE DIRECTION AT KIWD SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW -SHSN OFF THE LAKE AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY NOT REDUCING VIS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS...ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE. AT KCMX...EXPECT LINGERING -SHSN AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AND VFR. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT/MON...EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MON MORNING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. AT KSAW...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION...ENHANCING UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY DEVELOP LATE MON AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SRLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE LOW WED INTO WED NIGHT. NRLY WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001- 003>007-013-014-085. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
356 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT) ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 SNOWY EARLY APRIL DAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD MID LVL TEMPS REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BE CENTERED ON LINGERING EVENING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AND THE TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW...AND CURRENT HEADLINES. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AND DROPPING SOUTH OF SAGINAW BAY. CORRESPONDING 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE EXITING BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL OVER NRN MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO LAKE INDUCED SNOWFALL IS ALREADY QUICKLY BECOMING EVIDENT...AS NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE BANDS BEGIN TO SHOW ON RADAR. 850MB TEMPS COOL FROM EARLIER READINGS OF -8C TO -13C THIS EVENING AND FINALLY TO -16C OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUDNINGS SHOWING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL TEMP AND MSTR PROFILES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6500FT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE MOST WELL ORGANIZED AND DOMINATE LAKE BANDS OCCURRING AFTER 03Z...LIMITED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BY SOLAR DISRUPTIONS AND UN-ORGANIZED 925-850MB WINDS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL WILL DIMINISH SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS SYNOPTIC FORCING DWINDLES...AND REMOVE HEADLINE FROM SAGINAW BAY AREA. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE HEADLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELT REGIONS AS NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEGINS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 SUNDAY...WILL BE BLANKETING N LOWER WITH AN ADVISORY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL NOT QUITE ALL TOGETHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW, THE GFS A LITTLE MORE NORTH ALONG M-55, BUT WITH PORTIONS OF THE REGION GETTING ENOUGH SNOW TO ADVISORY CRITERIA (>3"), AND THE ECMWF WITH AN AXIS THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS TO ABOUT HARRISVILLE. THE MIDDLE GROUND ON THIS WAS THE HI-RES ARW MODEL. AFTER COORDINATING WITH GRR AND DTX, LOOKS LIKE A 4-6" AMOUNT FOR THE 24 HOURS OF 12Z TO 12Z AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NEAR M-55, AND 3-5" IN THE NORTH AREAS, EVEN UP TO NEAR THE BRIDGE. WON`T BE SURPRISED IF PORTIONS OF THIS, DEPENDING ON THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND SIGNALS FOR F-GEN BANDING THAT SOMEONE ENDS UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. MONDAY...AS THE LOW WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SNOW MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER VEER NE OUT OF ONTARIO. THIS AS MENTIONED BEFORE USUALLY IS A DRY, COLD FLOW AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT CLEARS OUT UPSTREAM SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT MONDAY COULD BE A CHILLY START IN THE SOO, AND POSSIBLY NE LOWER AS THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST BRIEFLY. THROUGH THE MORNING, THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK N AND THEN NW. THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH IS FAIRLY DRY UPSTREAM, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C)THERE WILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP IN NW LOWER. SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN NW LOWER. THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND SW OVERNIGHT, WITH RAPID DRYING SO THAT ANYTHING STILL GOING SHOULD SHUT OFF, AS WELL AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z. TUESDAY...THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WE WARM UP WITH HIGH CLOUDS INVADING THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXTENDED... TUEDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...NEXT UPPER TROF WILL CROSS NORTHERN MI WED NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKES REGION WED. NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS JOGGED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS LOW...A TREND THAT SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPS ON WED AND PRECIP FALLING MORE AS SNOW AND LESS AS A MIX. WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE EVENT APPROACHES...CERTAINLY STILL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. ARCTIC SHORTWAVE DIVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THU NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE SOME 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...PERHAPS REBOUNDING AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE DAY AS COLD MID LVL TEMPS AND APRIL SUN COMBINE. A TRANSITION TO LAKE INDUCED SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TAF STIES...AS WINDS TREND NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY. ANOTHER PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBY AND SNOW FOR NRN MI TAF SITES. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND...AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THEN NORTHERN MICHGIAN NEARSHORE WATERS WITH GALES IN THE ERN STRAITS. WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING... BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ019>022- 025>028-031>034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ016>018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ029- 030-035-036-041-042. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...SWR LONG TERM...JZ/JSL AVIATION...SWR MARINE...SWR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
226 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 LATEST UPDATE... HYDRO .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 TONIGHT. A SECOND EARLY SPRING SNOW AND ICE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR I-96 WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT AREAS NORTH OF M-46 WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW... MAYBE UP TO 6 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS... THEN MORE SNOW IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 I ADDED ALLEGAN COUNTY TO OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND 2 1/2 INCHES IN CASTLE PARK AND IT WILL SNOW THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH. FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDE OFFS. SOUTH OF THERE MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT. SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET. MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SECOND CLIPPER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL). MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR SIGNIFICANT THUR/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL SUN...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP BY 20-21Z WITH IFR BECOMING MORE COMMON. IT WILL END QUICKLY WITH MVFR/VFR BY 22-23Z. IT WILL THEN REMAIN VFR TONIGHT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 20-00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. THE I-96 TAF SITES SHOULD DROP TO IFR AROUND 16-17Z...WHILE I-94 TAF SITES MAY DROP TO IFR AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ071>074. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...WDM SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...DUKE AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 TONIGHT. A SECOND EARLY SPRING SNOW AND ICE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR I-96 WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT AREAS NORTH OF M-46 WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW... MAYBE UP TO 6 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS... THEN MORE SNOW IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 I ADDED ALLEGAN COUNTY TO OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND 2 1/2 INCHES IN CASTLE PARK AND IT WILL SNOW THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH. FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDE OFFS. SOUTH OF THERE MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT. SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET. MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SECOND CLIPPER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL). MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR SIGNIFICANT THUR/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL SUN...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP BY 20-21Z WITH IFR BECOMING MORE COMMON. IT WILL END QUICKLY WITH MVFR/VFR BY 22-23Z. IT WILL THEN REMAIN VFR TONIGHT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BETWEEN 20-00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. THE I-96 TAF SITES SHOULD DROP TO IFR AROUND 16-17Z...WHILE I-94 TAF SITES MAY DROP TO IFR AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ071>074. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...WDM SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...DUKE AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE/SYNOPSIS .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 TONIGHT. A SECOND EARLY SPRING SNOW AND ICE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR I-96 WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT AREAS NORTH OF M-46 WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW... MAYBE UP TO 6 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS... THEN MORE SNOW IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 I ADDED ALLEGAN COUNTY TO OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND 2 1/2 INCHES IN CASTLE PARK AND IT WILL SNOW THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH. FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDEOFFS. SOUTH OF THERE MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT. SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET. MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SECOND CLIPPER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL). MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR SIGNIFICANT THURS/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL SUN...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDAY HOURS (16Z-19Z). SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AS WILL LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SNOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS KICK UP INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. KAZO AND KBTL WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 30 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ071>074. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...WDM SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...DUKE AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1209 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .AVIATION... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH POTENT INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY. SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE FROM KPTK NORTH. CELLULAR CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KFNT/KMBS BEFORE MORE OGANIZED PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD 21-02Z. BANDING EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SW LOWER MI WILL TAKE OVER FROM KPTK SOUTH. REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH THERE IS QUESTION REGARDING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ON BOTH WARM AND WET GROUND. NONETHELESS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY IN THE DETROIT AREA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AIRCRAFT ICING...WHICH IS BECOMING EVIDENT IN REGIONAL PIREPS...IN ADDITION TO A LOW CHC THUNDER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND GUST OVER 30 KTS THIS AFTN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK...ATTM IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF DTW...BUT STILL MAY APPROACH 40 KTS IN THE DETROIT AREA NONTHELESS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS DRY ADVECTION INCREASES LATE. FOR DTW...PRECIP ONSET AROUND 18Z MAY INITIALLY BE -SHRA OR RA/SN MIX. HOWEVER, HEAVY PRECIP RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AFTER 21Z. THE ONLY OBSTACLE TO INCLUDING 1/4 +SN IN THE PRESENT FORECAST IS UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE AS THE BAND WILL IMPACT KDTW DURING THE MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL HEATING. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVERHEAD 19-21Z. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UPON ITS PASSAGE. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT. * MEDIUM FOR PTYPE OF SNOW AFTER 18Z. HIGH AFTER 23Z. * LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE * HIGH FOR NW WIND NW WIND EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 421 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 DISCUSSION... AN ACTION PACKED WEEKEND IN FRONT OF US WITH TWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE WAVELENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS SET TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE SECOND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE BEING SMALLER IN STATURE...ALL SIGNS POINT TO EACH OF THE SYSTEMS PACKING THEIR OWN PUNCH. VERY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG LOW DEEPENING RATES...IS CURRENTLY DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS POSITIONING WITH A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO THE VICINITY OF DULUTH...MN AS OF 0700Z. MODELS SUPPORT THE CRUX OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IMPINGEMENT OF LEAD LEFT EXIT JET SURGE TO THE BORDER REGION OF MI/IN/OH ALREADY BY 18Z WHICH IS NOW SLIGHTLY AHEAD EARLIER PROJECTIONS. THIS PRESENTS A LITTLE BIT OF A CONUNDRUM BECAUSE AT THIS SAME TIME...THE PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WANTS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY...MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DTX CWA. THE END RESULT IS A LITTLE MORE OF A DIFFUSE LOW CENTER...WITH A MORE SHARP/TIGHT/COMPACT MSLP GRADIENT ON A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL FAVOR THE MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER OR STING JET REGION...SAY RIGHT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TODAY HAS TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN...1. THE HIGH END WIND POTENTIAL FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND THE SHORELINE AREAS ALONG THE THUMB THAT WILL EXPERIENCE ONSHORE FLOW....2. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES IN SNOWFALL FROM THE DETROIT SUBURBS NORTHWARD...BUT PRIMARILY SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS. A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS TO CONVEY ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WITH THE IDEA OF A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW CENTER...THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FORCING SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE ON THE IMMEDIATE BACKSIDE OF THE SHARP SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF ISALLOBARIC AND GRADIENT WIND COMPONENTS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIRES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS THAT A LOW TOPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE COULD IGNITE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE LINE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES BETWEEN 21-00Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THIS ASCENT/SUBSIDENCE DELINEATION THAT WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. FOR THIS REASON ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-03Z. THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE SHORELINE AREAS OF TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH REDUCED FRICTION FLOW COULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT (SEE BELOW)...WILL INCLUDE A BREAKOUT IN THE WSW TO BULLET POINT THIS HIGHER WIND THREAT FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. THE OTHER HUGE DISCUSSION POINTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS ON PRECIPITATION RATES...TYPE...AND AMOUNTS. THE EASY SUBJECT IS PRECIPITATION RATES AND TYPE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SOUNDING THAT IS PRACTICALLY ON ITS SIDE WITH VERY STEEP AND SATURATED LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE/OR 18 KFT AGL. WITH THE VERY LOW STATIC STABILITY TO EVEN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MODELS SUPPORTING FREEZING HEIGHTS AT LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET...ALL AREAS SHOULD WITNESS SNOWFLAKES OUT OF THE HIGHEST RATES. OVERWHELMINGLY THE MORE DIFFICULT TOPIC IS AMOUNTS. THE DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY HIGHLIGHTED A COUPLE OF REASONS THAT ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY MAY BE COMPROMISED...WET/MILD GROUND CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION EFFECTS. ANOTHER NEGATIVE HAS APPEARED IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE MORE DIFFUSE LOW CENTER. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OF A DEGREE OR TWO IS WREAKING COMPLETE HAVOC ON BOTH THE MODEL PTYPE ALGORITHMS AND THE LOCAL SNOW RATIO TOOL. COULD GO BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER AND FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS...THE DECISION WAS TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/ST CLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD. IN SHORT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH 2 OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN 3 HOURS. THE RAP AND SOME OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ON A MINI/PSEUDO TROWAL AXIS SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS (19- 01Z). ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA/NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION/DEFORMATION AXIS. NO SURPRISES IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH REGARDS TO THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SEEMED TO CONGEAL ONTO THE IDEA OF AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE DETROIT METRO WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ROCKING JUST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM NOSE AWAY .LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE OR FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE THAT STILL EXISTS IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH THE ECMWF STILL VERY WELL TEMPERED IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ENOUGH SO THAT IT WAS A FAIRLY EASY DECISION TO FORGO ANY WINTER STORM WATCH CONSIDERATIONS. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST IS STILL SIDED HEAVILY TOWARD A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY SOLUTION WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 PRIMARILY 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL EXIST BUT POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FOR THE TERRAIN. MARINE... A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH THIS LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORM REACHES THE EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GALES WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD...TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STORM. THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY ALSO SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PEAKS. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL FEATURE AN UPTICK IN WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WHILE BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA. HYDROLOGY... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING RAIN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ABOUT M-59 AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL AGAIN TARGET LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF M-59 WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE METRO DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REACH NEAR A HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAY RESULT IN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND THE I-69 CORRIDOR. WITH THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY SWOLLEN AND SOILS SATURATED...ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THIS NEW PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE REGION. HELPING MITIGATE SOME ISSUES WILL BE THE FACT IT IS FALLING OVER THE COURSE OF AROUND 36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL WILL ALSO HELP BY HOLDING MOISTURE AND SLOWLY RELEASING IT AS IT MELTS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-083. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049- 053>055-060>063-068>070. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421- 422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....JVC DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......DRK HYDROLOGY....DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND AND BRING A RETURN TO WINTER WEATHER. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIESAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH. FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDEOFFS. SOUTH OF THERE MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT. SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET. MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SECOND CLIPPER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL). MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR SIGNIFICANT THURS/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL SUN...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDAY HOURS (16Z-19Z). SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AS WILL LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SNOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS KICK UP INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. KAZO AND KBTL WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 30 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ064-071>074. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-065>067. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...DUKE AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
632 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .AVIATION... CHAOTIC SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AS OF 10Z AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MBS AND FNT AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS PTK. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING NEAR PTK...IT MAY KEEP ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX. THE DETROIT TERMINALS LOOK TO STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH MOST OF DAY...ATTEMPTING TO CHANGE OVER LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DETROIT TERMINALS BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CURRENT GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE AND WITH THE STORM STRENGTHENING AS IT DROPS THROUGH MI...WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST WINDS THAT STRONG OVER THE DETROIT METRO TERMINALS AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR WITH THE AREA OF SNOW/RAIN BUT WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM AFTER ABOUT 02Z. FOR DTW...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY CHANGE OVER SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LARGE IMPACTS AT METRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO BOTH STRONG CROSS WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * MEDIUM IN PRECIP TYPE BEING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. * HIGH IN W-NW WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 421 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 DISCUSSION... AN ACTION PACKED WEEKEND IN FRONT OF US WITH TWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE WAVELENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS SET TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE SECOND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE BEING SMALLER IN STATURE...ALL SIGNS POINT TO EACH OF THE SYSTEMS PACKING THEIR OWN PUNCH. VERY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG LOW DEEPENING RATES...IS CURRENTLY DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS POSITIONING WITH A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO THE VICINITY OF DULUTH...MN AS OF 0700Z. MODELS SUPPORT THE CRUX OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IMPINGEMENT OF LEAD LEFT EXIT JET SURGE TO THE BORDER REGION OF MI/IN/OH ALREADY BY 18Z WHICH IS NOW SLIGHTLY AHEAD EARLIER PROJECTIONS. THIS PRESENTS A LITTLE BIT OF A CONUNDRUM BECAUSE AT THIS SAME TIME...THE PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WANTS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY...MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DTX CWA. THE END RESULT IS A LITTLE MORE OF A DIFFUSE LOW CENTER...WITH A MORE SHARP/TIGHT/COMPACT MSLP GRADIENT ON A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL FAVOR THE MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER OR STING JET REGION...SAY RIGHT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TODAY HAS TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN...1. THE HIGH END WIND POTENTIAL FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND THE SHORELINE AREAS ALONG THE THUMB THAT WILL EXPERIENCE ONSHORE FLOW....2. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES IN SNOWFALL FROM THE DETROIT SUBURBS NORTHWARD...BUT PRIMARILY SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS. A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS TO CONVEY ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WITH THE IDEA OF A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW CENTER...THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FORCING SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE ON THE IMMEDIATE BACKSIDE OF THE SHARP SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF ISALLOBARIC AND GRADIENT WIND COMPONENTS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIRES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS THAT A LOW TOPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE COULD IGNITE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE LINE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES BETWEEN 21-00Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THIS ASCENT/SUBSIDENCE DELINEATION THAT WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. FOR THIS REASON ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-03Z. THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE SHORELINE AREAS OF TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH REDUCED FRICTION FLOW COULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT (SEE BELOW)...WILL INCLUDE A BREAKOUT IN THE WSW TO BULLET POINT THIS HIGHER WIND THREAT FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. THE OTHER HUGE DISCUSSION POINTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS ON PRECIPITATION RATES...TYPE...AND AMOUNTS. THE EASY SUBJECT IS PRECIPITATION RATES AND TYPE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SOUNDING THAT IS PRACTICALLY ON ITS SIDE WITH VERY STEEP AND SATURATED LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE/OR 18 KFT AGL. WITH THE VERY LOW STATIC STABILITY TO EVEN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MODELS SUPPORTING FREEZING HEIGHTS AT LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET...ALL AREAS SHOULD WITNESS SNOWFLAKES OUT OF THE HIGHEST RATES. OVERWHELMINGLY THE MORE DIFFICULT TOPIC IS AMOUNTS. THE DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY HIGHLIGHTED A COUPLE OF REASONS THAT ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY MAY BE COMPROMISED...WET/MILD GROUND CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION EFFECTS. ANOTHER NEGATIVE HAS APPEARED IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE MORE DIFFUSE LOW CENTER. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OF A DEGREE OR TWO IS WREAKING COMPLETE HAVOC ON BOTH THE MODEL PTYPE ALGORITHMS AND THE LOCAL SNOW RATIO TOOL. COULD GO BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER AND FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS...THE DECISION WAS TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/ST CLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD. IN SHORT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH 2 OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN 3 HOURS. THE RAP AND SOME OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ON A MINI/PSEUDO TROWAL AXIS SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS (19- 01Z). ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA/NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION/DEFORMATION AXIS. NO SURPRISES IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH REGARDS TO THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SEEMED TO CONGEAL ONTO THE IDEA OF AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE DETROIT METRO WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ROCKING JUST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM NOSE AWAY ..LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE OR FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE THAT STILL EXISTS IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH THE ECMWF STILL VERY WELL TEMPERED IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ENOUGH SO THAT IT WAS A FAIRLY EASY DECISION TO FORGO ANY WINTER STORM WATCH CONSIDERATIONS. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST IS STILL SIDED HEAVILY TOWARD A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY SOLUTION WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 PRIMARILY 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL EXIST BUT POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FOR THE TERRAIN. MARINE... A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH THIS LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORM REACHES THE EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GALES WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD...TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STORM. THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY ALSO SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PEAKS. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL FEATURE AN UPTICK IN WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WHILE BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA. HYDROLOGY... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING RAIN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ABOUT M-59 AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL AGAIN TARGET LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF M-59 WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE METRO DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REACH NEAR A HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAY RESULT IN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND THE I-69 CORRIDOR. WITH THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY SWOLLEN AND SOILS SATURATED...ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THIS NEW PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE REGION. HELPING MITIGATE SOME ISSUES WILL BE THE FACT IT IS FALLING OVER THE COURSE OF AROUND 36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL WILL ALSO HELP BY HOLDING MOISTURE AND SLOWLY RELEASING IT AS IT MELTS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-083. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421- 422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......DRK HYDROLOGY....DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
421 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .DISCUSSION... AN ACTION PACKED WEEKEND IN FRONT OF US WITH TWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE WAVELENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS SET TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE SECOND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE BEING SMALLER IN STATURE...ALL SIGNS POINT TO EACH OF THE SYSTEMS PACKING THEIR OWN PUNCH. VERY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG LOW DEEPENING RATES...IS CURRENTLY DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS POSITIONING WITH A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO THE VICINITY OF DULUTH...MN AS OF 0700Z. MODELS SUPPORT THE CRUX OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IMPINGEMENT OF LEAD LEFT EXIT JET SURGE TO THE BORDER REGION OF MI/IN/OH ALREADY BY 18Z WHICH IS NOW SLIGHTLY AHEAD EARLIER PROJECTIONS. THIS PRESENTS A LITTLE BIT OF A CONUNDRUM BECAUSE AT THIS SAME TIME...THE PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WANTS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY...MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DTX CWA. THE END RESULT IS A LITTLE MORE OF A DIFFUSE LOW CENTER...WITH A MORE SHARP/TIGHT/COMPACT MSLP GRADIENT ON A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL FAVOR THE MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER OR STING JET REGION...SAY RIGHT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TODAY HAS TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN...1. THE HIGH END WIND POTENTIAL FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND THE SHORELINE AREAS ALONG THE THUMB THAT WILL EXPERIENCE ONSHORE FLOW....2. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES IN SNOWFALL FROM THE DETROIT SUBURBS NORTHWARD...BUT PRIMARILY SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS. A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS TO CONVEY ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WITH THE IDEA OF A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW CENTER...THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FORCING SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE ON THE IMMEDIATE BACKSIDE OF THE SHARP SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF ISALLOBARIC AND GRADIENT WIND COMPONENTS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIRES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS THAT A LOW TOPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE COULD IGNITE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE LINE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES BETWEEN 21-00Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THIS ASCENT/SUBSIDENCE DELINEATION THAT WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. FOR THIS REASON ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-03Z. THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE SHORELINE AREAS OF TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH REDUCED FRICTION FLOW COULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT (SEE BELOW)...WILL INCLUDE A BREAKOUT IN THE WSW TO BULLET POINT THIS HIGHER WIND THREAT FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. THE OTHER HUGE DISCUSSION POINTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS ON PRECIPITATION RATES...TYPE...AND AMOUNTS. THE EASY SUBJECT IS PRECIPITATION RATES AND TYPE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SOUNDING THAT IS PRACTICALLY ON ITS SIDE WITH VERY STEEP AND SATURATED LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE/OR 18 KFT AGL. WITH THE VERY LOW STATIC STABILITY TO EVEN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MODELS SUPPORTING FREEZING HEIGHTS AT LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET...ALL AREAS SHOULD WITNESS SNOWFLAKES OUT OF THE HIGHEST RATES. OVERWHELMINGLY THE MORE DIFFICULT TOPIC IS AMOUNTS. THE DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY HIGHLIGHTED A COUPLE OF REASONS THAT ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY MAY BE COMPROMISED...WET/MILD GROUND CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION EFFECTS. ANOTHER NEGATIVE HAS APPEARED IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE MORE DIFFUSE LOW CENTER. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OF A DEGREE OR TWO IS WREAKING COMPLETE HAVOC ON BOTH THE MODEL PTYPE ALGORITHMS AND THE LOCAL SNOW RATIO TOOL. COULD GO BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER AND FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS...THE DECISION WAS TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/ST CLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD. IN SHORT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH 2 OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN 3 HOURS. THE RAP AND SOME OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ON A MINI/PSEUDO TROWAL AXIS SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS (19- 01Z). ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA/NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION/DEFORMATION AXIS. NO SURPRISES IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH REGARDS TO THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SEEMED TO CONGEAL ONTO THE IDEA OF AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE DETROIT METRO WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ROCKING JUST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM NOSE AWAY ...LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE OR FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE THAT STILL EXISTS IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH THE ECMWF STILL VERY WELL TEMPERED IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ENOUGH SO THAT IT WAS A FAIRLY EASY DECISION TO FORGO ANY WINTER STORM WATCH CONSIDERATIONS. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST IS STILL SIDED HEAVILY TOWARD A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY SOLUTION WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 PRIMARILY 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL EXIST BUT POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FOR THE TERRAIN. && .MARINE... A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH THIS LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORM REACHES THE EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GALES WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD...TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STORM. THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY ALSO SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PEAKS. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL FEATURE AN UPTICK IN WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WHILE BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING RAIN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ABOUT M-59 AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL AGAIN TARGET LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF M-59 WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE METRO DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REACH NEAR A HALF INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAY RESULT IN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND THE I-69 CORRIDOR. WITH THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY SWOLLEN AND SOILS SATURATED...ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THIS NEW PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE REGION. HELPING MITIGATE SOME ISSUES WILL BE THE FACT IT IS FALLING OVER THE COURSE OF AROUND 36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL WILL ALSO HELP BY HOLDING MOISTURE AND SLOWLY RELEASING IT AS IT MELTS. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 WHILE THERE IS SOME DISSIPATION TO THE RAIN/SNOW WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z BEFORE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS EXIT EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF INTERVAL OF LOW END MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING THIS PRECIP...INTERVALS OF LOW END MVFR TYPE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN ENSUE LATE IN THE FCST AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. FOR DTW...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP RAIN SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY CHANGE OVER SNOW SAT EVENING. WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LARGE IMPACTS AT METRO LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO BOTH PERIODS OF HIGH INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG CROSS WINDS. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. HIGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * LOW IN PRECIP TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT. MEDIUM IN PRECIP BEING SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. * HIGH IN W-NW WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-083. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421- 422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......DRK HYDROLOGY....DRK AVIATION.....SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND HAS BEEN DRIVING LINGERING BKN/OVC CUMULUS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...ACCELERATING THE CLEARING TREND AND PERHAPS GIVING PEOPLE A CHANCE TO VIEW A POSSIBLE AURORA DUE TO A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS. HOWEVER...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA. THE CLIPPER WILL DIVE OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...THEN PASS THROUGH SE NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND NEARBY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...REACH MAX INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE BAND WILL SET UP...AND HOW MUCH PCPN WILL FALL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MODEL TREND WAS TO SHIFT THE BAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUNS. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH...EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT TO RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. CONCERNED ABOUT THE AGGRESSIVE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL...WHICH DEPICTS MUCH GREATER AND FOCUSED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS. MAY NEED TO REFINE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE RAP AND HRRR COME INTO PLAY AND OFFER A MEANS TO BETTER ESTIMATE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND. OTHERWISE...BACKING WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND BE ABLE TO WARM UP MUCH MORE SO THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY CUT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC LIFT TO RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -10C OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AREA TO -18C NORTHEAST AT 12Z MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL SHOW A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE NAM SUPPORTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF. SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...AND WE 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE NORTH SHORE TO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS ON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH MONDAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND DRY. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WEAKER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT THE RESULT WILL BE THE SAME ON THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WE TRENDED A BIT COLDER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE MORE OF A MIX TUESDAY AND SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW SOONER TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM 30 TO 40 FOR MOST AREAS WITH MID THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO 30 TO 40 THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE CLIPPER THAT IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAS LED TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CLOUD STREETS AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR OR BECOME SCATTERED. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BACKING TO EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN THEY WILL LOWER AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF SNOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 21 30 21 31 / 40 30 50 50 INL 16 31 13 31 / 70 70 30 0 BRD 23 43 25 41 / 0 10 10 0 HYR 17 39 21 35 / 30 20 10 10 ASX 18 31 21 31 / 60 60 60 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ012- 020-021. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121- 146>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140>145. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED AT 1 PM... COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BY AROUND 3 PM. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLURRIES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME SUNNY BREAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DROP INTO THE 30S OVER WESTERN NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY DISTINCT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THIS PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING... BUT EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS SOUNDING BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING... BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 7 PM... TO I-81 BY 10 PM... AND TO THE CATSILLS BY 11 PM. UPDATED AT 1040 AM... COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE POCONOS IS PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THAT AREA BY NOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TO THE CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... BUT READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 40 IN MANY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST 12Z NAM JUST COMING IN NOW AND CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF SOME BIG CHANGES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A LOW- PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS PA LATER TONIGHT. THE IDEA FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL TARGETTED FOR THE TWIN TIERS OF FAR NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 4 AM...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST OFF TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE PA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WAVE RIDES UP ALONG FRONT. CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS TO BRING WITH IT SOME SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. AREA WILL BE IN TRANSITION FROM WARMTH OF THIS PAST WEEK TO MUCH COLDER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY ACTIVE AND WINTER LIKE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW AND WIND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...LIKELY FALLING INITIALLY AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP. WHILE NOT EXPECTING EPIC SNOW AMOUNTS, THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW THAT COULD BE QUITE HEAVY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT DUE TO THE VERY STRONG FORCING COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST SNOW WINDING DOWN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, STRONG PRESSURE RISES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ITS WAKE OVER THE AREA EXPECT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS ALONG WITH WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID - UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE FAR SE (SULLIVAN COUNTY) AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES...ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA COUNTIES. GENERALLY EXPECT 2-5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. AS IF THE ABOVE SYSTEM WASN`T ENOUGH, FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON A SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SNOW AS TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY COLD, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE FORCING ALOFT WON`T BE AS STRONG THOUGH THE DURATION OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS MODERATE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES. VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OFF THE NJ COAST AND SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. LATER WED THROUGH THURDSAY, SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE REGION MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COLDER AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NICE REBOUND TO SEASONAL TEMPS ON WED. REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER READINGS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WINDS. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KITH/KELM/KBGM)WILL FALL BELOW IFR WITH OCCASIONAL CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS BETWEEN 02Z-12Z. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY AFTER 02Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR BETWEEN 04Z-08Z. AT KAVP, MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z THEN A TRANSITION TO IFR SNOW UNTIL 10Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOW VFR AFTER 12Z IN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 08Z AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... SUN EVE-MON...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WED...MAINLY VFR...OCCNL VFR POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS NW TERMINALS IN RA/SN SHOWERS. THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED AT 1 PM... COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BY AROUND 3 PM. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLURRIES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME SUNNY BREAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DROP INTO THE 30S OVER WESTERN NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY DISTINCT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THIS PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING... BUT EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS SOUNDING BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING... BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 7 PM... TO I-81 BY 10 PM... AND TO THE CATSILLS BY 11 PM. UPDATED AT 1040 AM... COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE POCONOS IS PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THAT AREA BY NOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TO THE CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... BUT READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 40 IN MANY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST 12Z NAM JUST COMING IN NOW AND CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF SOME BIG CHANGES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A LOW- PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS PA LATER TONIGHT. THE IDEA FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL TARGETTED FOR THE TWIN TIERS OF FAR NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 4 AM...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST OFF TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE PA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WAVE RIDES UP ALONG FRONT. CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS TO BRING WITH IT SOME SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. AREA WILL BE IN TRANSITION FROM WARMTH OF THIS PAST WEEK TO MUCH COLDER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... VERY ACTIVE AND WINTER LIKE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW AND WIND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...LIKELY FALLING INITIALLY AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP. WHILE NOT EXPECTING EPIC SNOW AMOUNTS, THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW THAT COULD BE QUITE HEAVY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT DUE TO THE VERY STRONG FORCING COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST SNOW WINDING DOWN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, STRONG PRESSURE RISES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ITS WAKE OVER THE AREA EXPECT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS ALONG WITH WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID - UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE FAR SE (SULLIVAN COUNTY) AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES...ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA COUNTIES. GENERALLY EXPECT 2-5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. AS IF THE ABOVE SYSTEM WASN`T ENOUGH, FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON A SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SNOW AS TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY COLD, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE FORCING ALOFT WON`T BE AS STRONG THOUGH THE DURATION OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS MODERATE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES. VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE PRESENCE OF RECENT SNOW ON THE GROUND COMBINED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR GOING INTO TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL APPROACH APRIL RECORD LOWS. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR APRIL AT BGM IS +9 DEG F...SYR IS +7...AVP IS +8. RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE...BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND USHER IN A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG WAA REGIME WILL SET UP AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN WILL COMBINE WITH BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY AND A CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A POTENT COASTAL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL HELP DRAW THE COLD AIR DOWN FROM CANADA AND PRODUCE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL A WEEK OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...CLOSE TO 50 ON THURSDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WINDS. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KITH/KELM/KBGM)WILL FALL BELOW IFR WITH OCCASIONAL CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS BETWEEN 02Z-12Z. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY AFTER 02Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR BETWEEN 04Z-08Z. AT KAVP, MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z THEN A TRANSITION TO IFR SNOW UNTIL 10Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOW VFR AFTER 12Z IN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 08Z AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... SUN EVE-MON...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WED...MAINLY VFR...OCCNL VFR POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS NW TERMINALS IN RA/SN SHOWERS. THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED AT 1 PM... COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BY AROUND 3 PM. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLURRIES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME SUNNY BREAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DROP INTO THE 30S OVER WESTERN NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY DISTINCT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THIS PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING... BUT EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS SOUNDING BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING... BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 7 PM... TO I-81 BY 10 PM... AND TO THE CATSILLS BY 11 PM. UPDATED AT 1040 AM... COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE POCONOS IS PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THAT AREA BY NOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TO THE CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... BUT READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 40 IN MANY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST 12Z NAM JUST COMING IN NOW AND CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF SOME BIG CHANGES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A LOW- PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS PA LATER TONIGHT. THE IDEA FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL TARGETTED FOR THE TWIN TIERS OF FAR NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 4 AM...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST OFF TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE PA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WAVE RIDES UP ALONG FRONT. CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS TO BRING WITH IT SOME SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. AREA WILL BE IN TRANSITION FROM WARMTH OF THIS PAST WEEK TO MUCH COLDER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... VERY ACTIVE AND WINTER LIKE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW AND WIND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...LIKELY FALLING INITIALLY AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP. WHILE NOT EXPECTING EPIC SNOW AMOUNTS, THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW THAT COULD BE QUITE HEAVY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT DUE TO THE VERY STRONG FORCING COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST SNOW WINDING DOWN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, STRONG PRESSURE RISES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ITS WAKE OVER THE AREA EXPECT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS ALONG WITH WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID - UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE FAR SE (SULLIVAN COUNTY) AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES...ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA COUNTIES. GENERALLY EXPECT 2-5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY. AS IF THE ABOVE SYSTEM WASN`T ENOUGH, FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY AFTERNOON A SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SNOW AS TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY COLD, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE FORCING ALOFT WON`T BE AS STRONG THOUGH THE DURATION OF STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS MODERATE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES. VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE PRESENCE OF RECENT SNOW ON THE GROUND COMBINED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR GOING INTO TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL APPROACH APRIL RECORD LOWS. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR APRIL AT BGM IS +9 DEG F...SYR IS +7...AVP IS +8. RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE...BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND USHER IN A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG WAA REGIME WILL SET UP AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN WILL COMBINE WITH BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY AND A CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A POTENT COASTAL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL HELP DRAW THE COLD AIR DOWN FROM CANADA AND PRODUCE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL A WEEK OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...CLOSE TO 50 ON THURSDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE DECENT MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIFT AND ATTEMPT TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY THROUGH THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION OF NY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION AFTER 08Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE FUEL ALT RANGE WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND VSBYS IFR OR BELOW ALT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 12Z. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW ON THE GROUND TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS. .OUTLOOK... SUN EVE-MON...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WED...MAINLY VFR...OCCNL VFR POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS NW TERMINALS IN RA/SN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT/DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1205 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST TO SOME AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1210 AM SATURDAY...WE ARE IN A LULL BETWEEN OFFSHORE CONVECTION AND THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. I HAVE REMOVED THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT APPEARS THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY STRATIFORM. POPS ARE AT LEAST 80 PERCENT HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HARDLY BUDGE THROUGH SUNRISE. DISCUSSION FROM 830 PM FOLLOWS... CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED THIS EVENING LIKELY RESULTING FROM THE EARLIER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WHICH MUTED SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND OFF THE SOUTHERN SC COAST AND HEADING AWAY FROM SHORE. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AS WELL DUE TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE DIMINISHED IN OUR PART OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...LASTLY ALONG THE COAST. THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND IS OFFSHORE. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON INCREASING WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR WITH CLEARING LIKELY HOLDING OFF LONGEST AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING SUN AND CLEAR SKIES SUN NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SAT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON SUN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...AS WILL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR MIDWEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO ADD PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUE NIGHT- WED MORNING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARDS 70 ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO A BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING FIREWORKS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SPORADIC STRIKES. PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS WELL MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE CONVECTION TO THE COAST BY 04-05Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. SATURDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1210 AM SATURDAY....ASIDE FROM ENDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SEAS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW FORECAST LEVELS AT MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD KEEP THEM ON-FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 830 PM FOLLOWS... LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT INSHORE UP TO 5 TO 6 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS WHICH IS HOLDING SPEEDS BACK SOME. ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL FURTHER SKEW THE LOCAL WIND FIELD TEMPORARILY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN INITIAL WIND SPEED CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS IS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE W...VEERING TO NW. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO N DURING SUN AND NE SUN EVE BEFORE BECOMING ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SUN...TRENDING TOWARD SE AND S. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER IN OFFSHORE FLOW SUN...2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH 4-5 FOOT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM SHORE AS A RESULT OF 15-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 MOST OF THE STREAMERS THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN FA HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THEY ARE QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK NORTHWEST INTO CANADA. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS UNDER THIS BAND AND SEVERAL METARS ARE ALSO REPORTING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. DO NOT HAVE ANY WEB CAMS LOCATED RIGHT UNDER THESE ECHOES...BUT THE ONES WE DO HAVE DO NOT INDICATE MUCH. THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW AND SEE IF ANY LATER OBSERVATIONS LOOK MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z. FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY. THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE PROLONGED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY 12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK AND VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ON THE EASTERN ND SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPPER OFF SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SWING FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN. ANOTHER FAST MOVING...BUT WEAK... CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND WITH SWAPPING BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GODON SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 STILL HAVE SOME STREAMERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH KPKD AND KSAZ REPORTING FLURRIES. THINK THESE FLURRIES SHOULD EXIT RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE ARE ALSO SOME FLURRIES BEING REPORTED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND AND NORTH OF KDVL. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...IF THEY STAY CONSISTENT MAY HAVE TO ADD A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH A LATER UPDATE. OTHERWISE STILL EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND A COOLER DAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z. FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY. THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE PROLONGED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY 12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 MOSTLY A SCATTERED STRATOCU FIELD IN THE RRV AND FAR NW MN. BKN- OVC MVFR STRATOCU LAKE OF THE WOODS THRU BEMIDJI AND INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL MN. THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THIS MORNING. AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH QUICKLY TOWARD DVL BASIN AND THESE MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST TODAY SO THAT OUTSIDE OF THIS MORNING CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN VFR (ALTOCU) RANGE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GODON SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 TEMPS COOLING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER FCST IN MANY AREAS....BUT STILL TRENDED THE TEMPS THE SAME WITH HIGHS MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES AROUND WITH STRATOCU PATCHES IN WCNTRL MN BUT THEY ARE EXITING QUICKLY. OVERALL NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC FCST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER ADVSIORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z. FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY. THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE PROLONGUED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY 12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 MOSTLY A SCATTERED STRATOCU FIELD IN THE RRV AND FAR NW MN. BKN- OVC MVFR STRATOCU LAKE OF THE WOODS THRU BEMIDJI AND INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL MN. THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THIS MORNING. AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH QUICKLY TOWARD DVL BASIN AND THESE MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST TODAY SO THAT OUTSIDE OF THIS MORNING CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN VFR (ALTOCU) RANGE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER ADVSIORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z. FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY. THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE PROLONGUED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY 12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MAIN CHALLENGE WAS TIMING WSHFT AND INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH VSBY WITH QUICK SHOT OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE N/NE SITES. FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON ALL CONCERNS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5MB ARE MAXIMIZED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR ACHIEVING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND EXPECTING LESS THAN ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOSTER AND STUTSMAN AT THIS TIME. OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 WE REDUCED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE /ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST ND/ IN RESPECT TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT MOS AND RAW 2-METER MODEL GUIDANCE...DESPITE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS. OUR WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AS GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45 MPH IN PLACES LIKE ROLLA AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTHWARD...AND IT SHOULD REACH THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY ABOUT 04 UTC PER RECENT RAP TRENDS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS EASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THEIR INITIAL PRESSURE- RISE-DRIVEN RESPONSE PER UPSTREAM TRENDS...SO THE GOING 06 UTC END TIME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WIND AVISORY APPEARS ON TARGET TOO. UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR PLACE- MENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. AS OF 2325 UTC...MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EVOLVING CLIPPER WHICH HAS ITS SURFACE LOW WEST OF WINNIPEG AT THIS HOUR. THE 20-22 UTC RUNS OF THE RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH 35 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ND HAVE APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THERE. THUS...WE WILL NOT EXPAND THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL TO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CHANGED THE WIND ADVISORY START TIME IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 7 PM CDT (ENDING AROUND 1 AM CDT) TONIGHT...AND BEGINNING AROUND 10 PM CDT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA (ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE - AROUND 4 AM CDT). THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS - ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MONTANA (TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S) AND INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S). MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW WITH A WEST COAST RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE - ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW FEATURE. TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS - AROUND 40-55 KNOTS AT H850 AND 65- 75 KNOTS AT H700 DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z TONIGHT (6-7PM) AND THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY AROUND 03Z (9- 10PM). LOOKING AT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO AROUND 30 WEST. THE FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER REACHES WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE THE WIND ADVISORY LASTING ONLY AROUND 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS WILL JUST MAKE CRITERIA OF AROUND 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH. ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW) MOVES EAST...IT ALLOWS THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH. THUS A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ONLY AROUND 40 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. STILL ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL (HIGHS IN THE 60S)...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS (HIGHS IN THE 40S). A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION IS BRIEF...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AGAIN PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TO BRING A WARM DAY MONDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE BREAKS INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/WYOMING AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY. COULD BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER PATCHY/BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KJMS THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT KJMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ025-037. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH. JUST TO THE WEST THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. EXPECTING THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO SLOWLY MAKE THERE WAY INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY REMAIN RATHER STEEP EVEN AS THE SUN SETS DUE TO THE STRONG CAA. ALSO LOOKED AT THE 1.5 PV SURFACE ON THE RAP AND IT SHOWS THE 1.5 SURFACE DOWN TO 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT ON THE GRADIENT. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUITE. HAVE ALSO KEPT A WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR A BIT AFTER THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER. AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FALL. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ON SUNDAY MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING START OFF COLD NEAR MINUS 10... BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WILL KICK IN WITH 850 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO 8 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALSO ARE FORECASTED TO RISE FROM AROUND 1270 M IN THE MORNING TO 1330 M BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULARY DIFFICULT BUT HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON VALUES OF THE 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. SUNDAY EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIP FORMING SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR 3Z AND PUSHING ALL PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. PWATS WITH THE LOW ARE FORECASTED TO RISE AROUND 0.85"... VIA NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS... WITH WEAK TO MODEST OMEGA VALUES. THE WEAKER OMEGA VALUES AREN`T SURPRISING AS EVEN THOUGH WAA IS STRONG AT THE TIME VORTICITY ADVECTION IS NEUTRAL TO ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. MONDAY AFTERNOON PVA STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SO DOES STRONG CAA SO OMEGA VALUES ARE VERY WEAK WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THE CANCELING OF THE LIFT. MONDAY EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALLOWING THE AREA TO FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH QUIET/COOL WEATHER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MUCH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN IN FAVORED DRAINAGE AREAS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL OHIO NEAREST THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 40S ON TUESDAY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG S/W TROUGH TO DIG INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AFTN SENDING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT NOW LOOKS WEAK- MODERATE SO THUNDER POTENTIAL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT RAIN DOES LOOK LIKELY. BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AMIDST STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL SET UP YET ANOTHER LIKELY ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO -8C TO -10C. IT`S A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD GIVEN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW...LIKELY SOME INSTBY-DRIVEN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS COULD BE SNOW FRIDAY SO RUNNING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AT PEAK HEATING AND IN THE 30S MORNINGS/EVENINGS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. HIGH WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST...GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT DAY CMH AND LCK...WITH ILN CVG AND LUK CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AS WELL. SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN SITES. WITH AIRMASS DRIER THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE BACKED OFF INTENSITY TO LIGHT WHILE KEEPING TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES. SKY COVER WILL NOT BE MAIN CONCERN WITH MODELS AND OBS INDICATING VFR. LOOK FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND CONTINUED VFR ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ091>093. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>100. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ091>093. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ091>093. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090- 094>100. IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... VERY WINDY WITH A PENDING COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL LEVELS INTO EARLY WEEK...AS REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PASS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... RUNNING THE RAP AND HRRR IN BUFKIT STILL DOES NOT WANT TO MIX DOWN ALL OF THE MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT DESPITE THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND OVERTURNING. USING THE HRRR 925MB PLANE VIEW PROGS GIVES A NOTEWORTHY DEPICTION OF WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR. THERE IS CONSISTENCY TO THE PEAK OCCURRING OVER THE ILN CWA...BUT THAT DOES LEAD TO CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING A HIGH WIND WARNING UPGRADE IN THIS AREA. DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO HASTY WITH THIS AND WANT TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT GOES THROUGH EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO...WHEN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS FLOW ALOFT IS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT ADDS SOME COMPLICATION TO THINGS...ADDING ANOTHER RESOURCE FOR MIXING MOMENTUM DOWN AND ADDING SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS GIVEN THE MODEST INVERTED V VERTICAL PROFILE. INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHOWERS MAY NEED WARNINGS FOR WIND IF THERE IS NO UPGRADE FROM THE WIND ADVISORY. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO THIS. SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST EXCEPT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION INTO WEBSTER COUNTY...AND EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ONLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWLANDS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. THIS HAS NOT YET STARTED FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET AND NOT SO WINDY WEATHER SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES AND A DRY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SO LOOK FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A MILDER AND DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. A LONGER FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INGEST MORE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THIS QUITE WELL...AND THUS HAVE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND DAWN MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND EXITING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME. AFTER A MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE GUSTY MONDAY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND RAPIDLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. LOOK FOR AN INCH OR SO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING LATER THAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN. LOOK FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 50 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE PUSHED EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF FASTER BRINGING IN PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL TIMING OF THE FRONT IS DECENT BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH PASSAGE ACROSS THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND SHOULD KEEP NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLOWED THE DIURNAL TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO HOLD TEMPS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN HAVE FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR WITH AN EXCEPTION OR TWO...BUT VERY WINDY. COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOWS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS TO RAMP UP INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HTS/CRW/BKW ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. EKN WILL SEE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. CKB AND EKN MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POST COLD FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY AN HOUR OR TWO. EKN MAY NEED BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>031-033-034. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ032-035>040. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103- 105. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ105. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... VERY WINDY WITH A PENDING COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL LEVELS INTO EARLY WEEK...AS REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PASS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RUNNING THE RAP AND HRRR IN BUFKIT STILL DOES NOT WANT TO MIX DOWN ALL OF THE MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT DESPITE THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND OVERTURNING. USING THE HRRR 925MB PLANE VIEW PROGS GIVES A NOTEWORTHY DEPICTION OF WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR. THERE IS CONSISTENCY TO THE PEAK OCCURRING OVER THE ILN CWA...BUT THAT DOES LEAD TO CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING A HIGH WIND WARNING UPGRADE IN THIS AREA. DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO HASTY WITH THIS AND WANT TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT GOES THROUGH EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO...WHEN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS FLOW ALOFT IS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT ADDS SOME COMPLICATION TO THINGS...ADDING ANOTHER RESOURCE FOR MIXING MOMENTUM DOWN AND ADDING SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS GIVEN THE MODEST INVERTED V VERTICAL PROFILE. INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHOWERS MAY NEED WARNINGS FOR WIND IF THERE IS NO UPGRADE FROM THE WIND ADVISORY. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO THIS. SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST EXCEPT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION INTO WEBSTER COUNTY...AND EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ONLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWLANDS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. THIS HAS NOT YET STARTED FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY CLEARING SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SW AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST ON MONDAY ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. THE FRONT QUICKLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...CHANGING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK. PRECIP WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG 500MB TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW LINGERS. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THIS ONE SOME SO CONTINUED TO STAY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AND DOWN...AS COLD AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND EACH COLD FRONT...AND THEN IS MODERATED SOME BY THE APRIL SUNSHINE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR WITH AN EXCEPTION OR TWO...BUT VERY WINDY. COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOWS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS TO RAMP UP INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HTS/CRW/BKW ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. EKN WILL SEE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. CKB AND EKN MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POST COLD FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY AN HOUR OR TWO. EKN MAY NEED BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>031-033-034. WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ032-035>040. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103- 105. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ105. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS ARE INCREASING QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS DUE TO A DIGGING MID LVL S/WV ALONG WITH STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TO OUR NRN/NERN FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO OUR SRN CWFA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTH OF I-70 FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ON TOP OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME GRAUPEL...OR SMALL SOFT HAIL...MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS/COLD AIR ALOFT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH UPSTREAM OBS LOOKING ROBUST WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA 3 PM TO 8 PM. THE GFS WITH ITS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALSO APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM RATHER WELL. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AS CAA AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES NORTH AND EAST BEFORE PCPN BECOMES RELEGATED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 11 PM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. IN THE REGION WHERE OUR SPRING GROWING SEASON HAS COMMENCED...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT ORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE NORTH...OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES BOOST INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AFTER A COLD START. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL NOW MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD APPEARS OVER OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE USED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GIVEN WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. HIGH WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST...GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT DAY CMH AND LCK...WITH ILN CVG AND LUK CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AS WELL. SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN SITES. WITH AIRMASS DRIER THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE BACKED OFF INTENSITY TO LIGHT WHILE KEEPING TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES. SKY COVER WILL NOT BE MAIN CONCERN WITH MODELS AND OBS INDICATING VFR. LOOK FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND CONTINUED VFR ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>100. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073-074. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073-074. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066-073-074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1203 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS ARE INCREASING QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS DUE TO A DIGGING MID LVL S/WV ALONG WITH STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TO OUR NRN/NERN FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO OUR SRN CWFA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTH OF I-70 FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ON TOP OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME GRAUPEL...OR SMALL SOFT HAIL...MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS/COLD AIR ALOFT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH UPSTREAM OBS LOOKING ROBUST WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA 3 PM TO 8 PM. THE GFS WITH ITS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALSO APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM RATHER WELL. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AS CAA AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES NORTH AND EAST BEFORE PCPN BECOMES RELEGATED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 11 PM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. IN THE REGION WHERE OUR SPRING GROWING SEASON HAS COMMENCED...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT ORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE NORTH...OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES BOOST INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AFTER A COLD START. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL NOW MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD APPEARS OVER OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE USED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GIVEN WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. GUSTS OF OVER 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. A FEW GUSTS MAY EVEN APPROACH 50 KNOTS. AT AROUND THIS SAME TIME FRAME...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA..ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM WSW TO WNW. WIND GUSTS WILL NOT DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...ROUGHLY DURING THE SAME FEW HOURS THAT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. ALTHOUGH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE DAYTON / COLUMBUS AIRPORTS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME GRAUPEL OR VERY SMALL HAIL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR ALL BUT THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT COLUMBUS. OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>100. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073-074. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073-074. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066-073-074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CONTINUING TO WATCH WIND POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM HANCOCK TO KNOX TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS AND HRRR AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH MAY CLIP THAT PART OF THE AREA. THIS IS FOR GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION LATER TOO WOULD HAVE SIMILAR POTENTIAL. NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER/SNOW HEADLINES. DID TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND EVENTUAL HIGHS FOR TODAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH...WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE. ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SPRINKLE/SHOWER/FLURRY MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA EARLY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT DRIVEN BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO OHIO. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS ALOFT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE... PRESSURE FALLS/RISE... AND COLD ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR STRONG UPWARD MOTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST OHIO. ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST OHIO/NORTHWEST PA STARTING THIS EVENING. MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH I SUPPOSE IT REALLY IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT A MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW WILL HAPPEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST PA FOR TONIGHT WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. I DOUBT WE WILL MAKE SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN THE CITY OF ERIE (2-3 INCHES LIKELY) BUT THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND HEAVIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A NASTY EVENING. SOUTH OF I-90 IN THE HILLS OF NORTHWEST PA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH BLOWING SNOW WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH EXCEPT 1-3 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NORTHEAST OH. EVEN IF THE SNOW DOES NOT ADD UP TO MUCH... THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR AN UNPLEASANT REMINDER OF WINTER IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA UNTIL 4 AM ALTHOUGH THE WIND MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S TONIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND IS WARM...A LITTLE SNOW/ICE/SLUSH IS POSSIBLE ON ROADS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE SNOWBELT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA LATER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT OF THE EXACT TRACK. THE SYSTEM SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAYS LOW...AND IT WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS UNLIKELY...EVEN WITH A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...PERHAPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST PA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC WITH WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 TO -15C BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT AND DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONS BACK TO ALL SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR MOST OF NE OHIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE LAKESHORE TOWARDS ERI WITH CEILINGS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA IN THE 2500-3500 FOOT RANGE. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE FRONT WILL REACH TOL/FDY AROUND 17Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL REACH CLE TOWARDS 19Z AND YNG BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT THE EASTERN SITES MAY TAKE UNTIL THE FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NW AFTER 00Z. ALL SITES EXPECTED TO SEE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS AT SOME POINT. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE TRANSITION TO SNOW AT THE WESTERN SITES WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AT CLE/YNG/ERI. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY THEN RETURN ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL APPROACH 40 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. IT WILL BE A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED EVENT AS GALES ONLY EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN POINT ON THE LAKE BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE. WAVES ON THE CENTRAL AND EAST HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WHOLE LAKE...STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN BASIN AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING ON THE EAST END. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE LAKE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AND WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HOWEVER BE NEEDED AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CAUSES WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-146>149-166>169. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>145-162>165. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
922 AM PDT SAT APR 2 2016 .UPDATE... AN UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO BETTER DEPICT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, COAST, AND COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BTL && .DISCUSSION... MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTIES THIS MORNING, WHERE A PRETTY SOLID STRATUS DECK LIES BELOW ABOUT 6KFT. ELSEWHERE, FOG IN THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN IS PRESENT THIS MORNING. WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST A MORE SOLID STRATUS DECK IS PRESENT. THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. SINCE MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AT PRESENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A LOT OF SPREAD IN DETAIL WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN SOUTHWESTERN MODOC AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS, KLAMATH, AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MODOC, SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON, AND PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. OTHER MODELS FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE TOWARD THE TRINITY ALPS, ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND NORTH OF MOUNT SHASTA. ALL IN ALL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY IN A SHOWER FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO BE LOW AND MUCH MORE LIKELY TO NOT HAPPEN THAN TO HAPPEN. HOWEVER, IT`S PRETTY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. BTL && .AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING TODAY. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT LOWERED CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE COAST. -BPN && .MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SAT 2 APR 2016...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TUESDAY. -BPN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 AM PDT SAT APR 2 2016/ SHORT TERM...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE MARINE PUSH IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED INLAND OVER MOST OF COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT CLOSE TO ROSEBURG BY DAWN. WE`VE ALSO GOT SOME STRATUS AROUND THE MT SHASTA AREA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AND A LITTLE UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTS IT OVER THE TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, THE MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE TODAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS MOISTURE AND TRIGGER, AND THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MENTIONED YESTERDAY IS A BIT WEAKER IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOTS OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LONG SHOT, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOT UNREASONABLE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND UPPER DYNAMICS IS A BIT BETTER, SO THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS. HOWEVER, EVEN IF STORMS FORM, THEY`D BE HARD PRESSED TO BE MORE THAN ISOLATED, SO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUNDAY, AS WELL. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS HEADING IN NORTH OF US, SO THE MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN THEY DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD SOAKING AT THE COAST AND AT LEAST SOME RAIN OVER ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. THAT SAID, IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN, OBVIOUSLY, WE WOULD GET LESS. NOTHING WAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AND THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY IS STILL VALID AND FOLLOWS. -WRIGHT LONG TERM... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADS ACROSS TO THE EAST SIDE AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS UP THE COAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING NORTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TO THE EAST SIDE FRIDAY. -SVEN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$ BTL/TRW/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPEED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THE STEADIEST SHIELD OF SNOW IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN NY...WITH THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN PA BEING OF A MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY NATURE. HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO NY STATE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER AREA IS MADE TO DROP SE INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...I SLICED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BY MAYBE HALF OR MORE GIVEN THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AGREES TEMPERATURES AT 850 GO ABOVE ZERO BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ICING AS SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN OVER SLOW TO RECOVER SURFACE TEMPS. I MENTIONED ICE PELLETS GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE RACING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS THE COLDER 850 TEMPS RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT COULD END AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW RACES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND LATEST HRRR/NAM AT 23Z INDICATING BAND OF SNOW ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT OVR THE E GRT LKS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA BORDER THIS EVENING...ENSURING VFR CONDS AT THE CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS AT KBFD BTWN 00Z-01Z. SFC LOW...OVR S WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND THE 05Z-07Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-16Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 16Z-20Z AT KJST. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD. THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS. FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPEED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY STREAKING ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO NY STATE AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...I SLICED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BY MAYBE HALF OR MORE GIVEN THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AGREES TEMPERATURES AT 850 GO ABOVE ZERO BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ICING AS SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN OVER SLOW TO RECOVER SURFACE TEMPS. I DIDN`T MENTION IT AS YET...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE RACING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS THE COLDER 850 TEMPS RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT COULD END AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW RACES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND LATEST HRRR/NAM AT 23Z INDICATING BAND OF SNOW ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT OVR THE E GRT LKS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA BORDER THIS EVENING...ENSURING VFR CONDS AT THE CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS AT KBFD BTWN 00Z-01Z. SFC LOW...OVR S WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND THE 05Z-07Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-16Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 16Z-20Z AT KJST. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD. THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS. FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE/TYBURSKI SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
715 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPEED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY STREAKING ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO NY STATE AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...I SLICED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BY MAYBE HALF OR MORE GIVEN THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AGREES TEMPERATURES AT 850 GO ABOVE ZERO BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ICING AS SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN OVER SLOW TO RECOVER SURFACE TEMPS. I DIDN`T MENTION IT AS YET...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE RACING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS THE COLDER 850 TEMPS RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT COULD END AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW RACES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND LATEST HRRR/NAM INDICATING BAND OF SNOW ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT OVR THE E GRT LKS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA BORDER THIS EVENING...ENSURING VFR CONDS AT THE CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. SFC LOW...OVR S WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND THE 05Z-07Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-16Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 14Z-20Z AT KJST. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD. THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. GUSTY WINDS/SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT SNOW AND HIGH WINDS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS MORNING...LEAVING A COOL BUT DRIER DAY TODAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... BEGAN POPS IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK...JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO ALL OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER MY FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL WARM UP ENOUGH FOR A SNOW TO RAIN...OR PLAIN RAIN EVENT. ZERO DEGREE 850 TEMPS TRACK JUST TO THE NEW YORK BORDER SO EXPECT EVEN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MIX WITH RAIN AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS TO THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. AS THE BELOW ZERO 850 TEMPS RETREAT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND LATEST HRRR/NAM INDICATING BAND OF SNOW ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT OVR THE E GRT LKS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA BORDER THIS EVENING...ENSURING VFR CONDS AT THE CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. SFC LOW...OVR S WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND THE 05Z-07Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-16Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 14Z-20Z AT KJST. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD. THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. GUSTY WINDS/SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS/TYBURSKI SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH WING OF 850- 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...AS ADVERTISED...AN IMPRESSIVE NE-SW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S SOUTH OF I-94. FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MN WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY FOR US. NAM 0.5-1KM RH FIELD AND LATEST SYNTHETIC 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COLDER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY...HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. PLAN ON LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 STRONG WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/850-700MB ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCES A NW-SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MORNING BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM BY LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THERE COULD BE UP TO 1/2 INCH MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS LOWER COLUMN/SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING IN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...SOME FLAKES COULD MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING FOR ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING WAVE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FOR SMALL-END RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A LITTLE HOPE ON THE HORIZON FOR MILDER WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD ALSO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS LOOKS LIKE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING STEADILY SOUTH. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES BY 00Z AND WILL START WITH NORTH WINDS. THE 03.18Z NAM MAINTAINS A MIXED LAYER AT KRST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING TO KEEP SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS GOING. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF VFR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND THE CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH AND IF THEY WILL LOWER WITH COOLING THIS EVENING. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THEY WOULD COME INTO BOTH SITES AND BRING A MVFR CEILING. THE 31.21Z RAP KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE RAP DOES SUGGEST THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THAT SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN COULD GET INTO KLSE. BASED ON THIS...WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KLSE BEFORE THESE LIFT UP TO VFR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 15.5 FEET MONDAY MORNING. OTHER RIVERWAYS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT REMAIN WITHIN BANK THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
101 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY FOR MARATHON CO...LINCOLN CO...AND ONEIDA CO. AS SNOW HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THERE. LEFT ADVISORY FOR VILAS CO ALONE DUE SINCE VSBYS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO ZERO AT IWD AND LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES AT OBS SITES WITHIN VILAS COUNTY. PREVIOUS UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 AREA OF SNOW IS STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN EARLIER FORECAST...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS AND POPS. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT SO FOLLOWED IT. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS TWO CLIPPERS TO IMPACT NE WI WITHIN 36 HOURS OF ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS CLIPPER #1 IS QUITE STRONG...BUT IS ALSO A FAST-MOVER. CLIPPER #2 IS NOT AS STRONG... BUT DOES HAVE A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH CLIPPER #2 IS THAT A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE 08Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED CLIPPER #1 PASSING JUST SW OF DLH...MAKE A BEELINE FOR CENTRAL WI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALREADY INTO NW WI HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI E-SE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS A POTENT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMICS INVOLVED TO PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS STRONG LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE A STEADY SNOW FROM ROUGHLY 10Z TO 17Z WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. EASTERN WI WOULD SEE THE SNOW FLY FROM ROUGHLY 13Z TO 20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A BROAD 2-3" TOTAL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/PARTS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE SNOW RATIOS ARE HIGHER (A FEW 4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO REV UP. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS SKIES TEMPORARILY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD NE WI LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER #2 WHICH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW COULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND HOW FAST CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT READINGS TO DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE NORTH...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. THIS SECOND CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NOT LIFT ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN WI. MODELS SHOW A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO EXIST OVER WI WITH 8H TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10C ALONG THE UPPER MI BORDER...TO +8C OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NE WI WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING COULD THERE BE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL NORTH? SINCE THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH...THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO COMPLETELY CHANGE ALL THE SNOW TO RAIN... EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI (SOUTH OF A MFI-OSH LINE). OTHERWISE...THIS IS GOING TO BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN WI WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO YANK QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT NIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME TOO WARM DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY IS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE CLIPPERS SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SNOW SHOWERS...AS WELL AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPED IN UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THERE WAS ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS WERE MAINLY VFR OR MVFR AND VSBYS UNRESTRICTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSED ISOLATED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE WINDS AND GUSTS WERE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO AN END...AND WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING...BUT THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAD THEIR QPF GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THEY ENDED UP BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY DEPARTING. MODEL SURFACE LOW PATHS LOOK FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM...AND THEY SHOW A TIGHT BAROCLINC ZONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THEIR HIGHEST QPF. HAVE JUST MENTIONED SNOW AT THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS ON SUNDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005. && $$ UPDATE.........MG SHORT TERM.....AK LONG TERM......ML AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY FOR MARATHON CO...LINCOLN CO...AND ONEIDA CO. AS SNOW HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THERE. LEFT ADVISORY FOR VILAS CO ALONE DUE SINCE VSBYS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO ZERO AT IWD AND LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES AT OBS SITES WITHIN VILAS COUNTY. PREVIOUS UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 AREA OF SNOW IS STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN EARLIER FORECAST...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS AND POPS. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT SO FOLLOWED IT. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS TWO CLIPPERS TO IMPACT NE WI WITHIN 36 HOURS OF ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS CLIPPER #1 IS QUITE STRONG...BUT IS ALSO A FAST-MOVER. CLIPPER #2 IS NOT AS STRONG... BUT DOES HAVE A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH CLIPPER #2 IS THAT A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE 08Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED CLIPPER #1 PASSING JUST SW OF DLH...MAKE A BEELINE FOR CENTRAL WI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALREADY INTO NW WI HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI E-SE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS A POTENT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMICS INVOLVED TO PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS STRONG LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE A STEADY SNOW FROM ROUGHLY 10Z TO 17Z WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. EASTERN WI WOULD SEE THE SNOW FLY FROM ROUGHLY 13Z TO 20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A BROAD 2-3" TOTAL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/PARTS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE SNOW RATIOS ARE HIGHER (A FEW 4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO REV UP. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS SKIES TEMPORARILY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD NE WI LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER #2 WHICH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW COULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND HOW FAST CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT READINGS TO DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE NORTH...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. THIS SECOND CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NOT LIFT ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN WI. MODELS SHOW A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO EXIST OVER WI WITH 8H TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10C ALONG THE UPPER MI BORDER...TO +8C OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NE WI WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING COULD THERE BE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL NORTH? SINCE THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH...THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO COMPLETELY CHANGE ALL THE SNOW TO RAIN... EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI (SOUTH OF A MFI-OSH LINE). OTHERWISE...THIS IS GOING TO BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN WI WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO YANK QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT NIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME TOO WARM DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY IS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE CLIPPERS SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 CLIPPER LOW TO EXIT WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING A BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DURING THE MORNING...RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND QUICKLY BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE (HIGHER VALUES THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO). A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF CLEARING TREND AND DIMINISHED WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO NE WI. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WI...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005. && $$ UPDATE.........MG SHORT TERM.....AK LONG TERM......ML AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 AREA OF SNOW IS STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN EARLIER FORECAST...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS AND POPS. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT SO FOLLOWED IT. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS TWO CLIPPERS TO IMPACT NE WI WITHIN 36 HOURS OF ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS CLIPPER #1 IS QUITE STRONG...BUT IS ALSO A FAST-MOVER. CLIPPER #2 IS NOT AS STRONG... BUT DOES HAVE A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH CLIPPER #2 IS THAT A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT. THE 08Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED CLIPPER #1 PASSING JUST SW OF DLH...MAKE A BEELINE FOR CENTRAL WI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALREADY INTO NW WI HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI E-SE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS A POTENT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMICS INVOLVED TO PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS STRONG LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE A STEADY SNOW FROM ROUGHLY 10Z TO 17Z WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. EASTERN WI WOULD SEE THE SNOW FLY FROM ROUGHLY 13Z TO 20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A BROAD 2-3" TOTAL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/PARTS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE SNOW RATIOS ARE HIGHER (A FEW 4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO REV UP. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS SKIES TEMPORARILY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD NE WI LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER #2 WHICH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW COULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND HOW FAST CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT READINGS TO DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE NORTH...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. THIS SECOND CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NOT LIFT ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN WI. MODELS SHOW A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO EXIST OVER WI WITH 8H TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10C ALONG THE UPPER MI BORDER...TO +8C OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NE WI WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING COULD THERE BE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL NORTH? SINCE THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH...THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO COMPLETELY CHANGE ALL THE SNOW TO RAIN... EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI (SOUTH OF A MFI-OSH LINE). OTHERWISE...THIS IS GOING TO BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN WI WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO YANK QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT NIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME TOO WARM DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY IS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE CLIPPERS SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 CLIPPER LOW TO EXIT WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING A BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DURING THE MORNING...RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND QUICKLY BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE (HIGHER VALUES THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO). A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF CLEARING TREND AND DIMINISHED WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO NE WI. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WI...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ010- 018-030. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005. && $$ UPDATE.........RDM SHORT TERM.....AK LONG TERM......ML AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT FALLING AS SNOW. THE POSITION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES INVOF NOAM MAY SHIFT A BIT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT PATTERN WL PRIMARILY FEATURE A RIDGE NR THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN STATES. THERE WL BE MORE VARIABILITY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LNGWV PATTERN. WE/LL START OUT THE FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE...GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN HAVE THE PATTERN UNDERGO REAMPLIFICATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT NWLY UPR FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BRIEF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO RESULT IN AOA NORMAL AMNTS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN WI. NARROW BAND OF PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY WITH LOCALLY BUT BRIEF HIGHER PRECIP RATES. OTHER LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WILL LIKELY SLIDE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...AND POISED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE IN THE DOWNSLOPING AND EASTERN WI AREAS. THEN CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COMPACT YET POTENT CLIPPER DIVES INTO THE STATE. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS CLIPPER...SO SHOULD SEE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. SATURDAY...FOLLOWED THE MESOMODELS AND NAM FOR TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL TAKE IT FROM NEAR MEDFORD TO SHEBOYGAN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG FGEN JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL LIKELY CREATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ROUGHLY FROM MERRILL TO MANITOWOC. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY NARROW...SO AMOUNTS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK. BUT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8 C/KM...A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF 50-100MB DEEP...MAY SEE LOCALLY BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH PER HOUR. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WILL SHOW 2-3 INCHES IN THIS SNOWFALL AXIS...BRINGING AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE STRONGER SPRING SUN...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD DURING THE MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED OR SLICK ROADS. THEREFORE...WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 09Z. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG/GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY DUE TO THE WIND AND SNOW...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE ARND THE TIMING...TYPE... AND AMNT OF PCPN. SOME FLURRIES LEFT OVER FM SYSTEM NUMBER ONE COULD STILL BE AFFECTING THE FAR E AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST. SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT OF N-C WI ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...QUIET WX IS EXPECTED SAT NGT AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACRS THE AREA. PCPN CHCS WL INCR QUICKLY SUNDAY. THEY MAY TAPER OFF OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST PCPN WL ARRIVE AND WHEN IT WL DEPART...DIDN/T FEEL WE REALLY HAVE THE FCST SKILL TO SUB-DIVIDE POPS BEYOND 12 HRS IN THIS SITN. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTED A BIT S FM WHAT WAS EXPECTED YDA. THE FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD STILL WARM INTO THE 40S...BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WL STAY IN THE 30S. ADJUSTED FCST TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE SNOW. CURRENT ESTIMATE IS THAT WE COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OVER ABOUT THE NERN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WL DROP SEWD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. SINCE THERE WL PROBABLY BE A FRESH SNOWCOVER ON THE GROUND...IT WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD SPOTS IN N-C WI TO DROP BLO ZERO MON NGT IF SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH. STUCK WITH SINGLE DIGIT (ABV ZERO) MINS FOR NOW. THE SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WL BE LARGER AND MV MORE SLOWLY THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. THE OVERALL TREND ON THE GUIDANCE WAS TO WEAKEN THE NWD PUSH OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE SYSTEM/S TRACK... BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WL PROBABLY STILL BE ABLE TO DRAW ENOUGH WARM AIR NWD TO RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING AS RAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 A POTENT AND FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD RHI/AUW/CWA BY AROUND 10Z...AND AT THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-13Z. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS C/EC WI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ005. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 342 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A band of light showers will continue to move southeast through the area early this morning, but should have dissipated or have moved out of the area by 8am. So, to account for the current scattered showers, will have pre-first period in upcoming forecast. These light showers are associated with a cold front that is moving through the area which will cause all winds to go from southwest to northerly. There will be some wind gusts, but only looking at 20 to 25 mph, even with the FROPA. Once the front/pcpn passes, conditions will be dry the rest of the day. Clouds associated with the front will move out, but lower clouds appear to be moving down from the north. HRRR has the lower clouds getting into northern parts of the CWA, but then not really into the rest of the CWA. NAM-WRF does have higher RH getting into the area today and into this afternoon, and this looks little more reasonable of a forecast. So, took a compromise between the two models and have some clouds, with most being in the east. Temps will be below normal again with mid 40s along I-74 to the mid 50s in the southeast. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Colder air mass in place overnight behind the frontal boundary for Central Illinois. Temperature drop further aided by light winds under the narrow ridge axis in concert with eroding cloud cover. Resulting overnight lows in the upper 20s, with a freeze warning in effect yet again, as some tender and new vegetation has already started. Breezy southerly winds kick back in on Tuesday in advance of the next wave bringing the threat of precip for Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A bit of a question mark for the threat of thunder on Wednesday, but with the frontal boundary passing through with the rainfall...at least keeping a scattered mention in there for now, regardless of the borderline lapse rates. If the more developed sfc low in the GFS materializes, the low center will be just to the north and close enough for a thunder mention as well...at least until the afternoon/evening hours. Models have become rather consistent with another wave quick on the heels of the Wed system for Thursday. Placement within the northwesterly flow is a little diffuse at this point, and the blends are still coming in with low chance solutions. If this persists...will likely see the pops for Thursday climb a bit. Wed night will be a transition...with a potential for a couple of breaks, before another round of precip on Thursday. So far, the northwesterly flow established for the end of the week has a series of smaller waves keeping the forecast wet until Fri night/Saturday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region for the first portion of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Strong and gusty SW winds will continue a few additional hours south of KPIA-KBMI. Low level wind shear possible where gustiness subsides until 09Z as 50 kt WSW flow at 2000 ft AGL. Decreasing flow aloft will follow a shift toward northerly winds following a cold frontal passage, eliminating LLWS. This cold front will push southward by 09Z. Scattered -shra, isold -tsra possible ahead of the cold front, although chances for thunderstorms at terminals too low for mention in TAFs at this time. Winds N around 15 kts are expected from 08-10Z until 00Z. Winds decreasing after 00Z. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1103 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. RIDGE SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WITH A TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS TAIL. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL BRING IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS PRIOR TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING BULK SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN FORCING IS LAGGING IN RESPECT TO OTHER PARAMETERS WHICH COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST WITH A SIMILAR TREND OF KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SUNFLOWER STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR SHALL BE BROUGHT IN TO RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THE WEST COAST...THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SIMPLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RIDGE FOR FRIDAY THEN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS BELIEVED. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW IT EVOLVES AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. AT 500MB THERE IS A HINT OF A TRAILING PACIFIC SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES LATE TO THE PARTY PREVENTING CONNECTION WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE MINIMAL ESPECIALLY WITH ONLY SLIGHT IF ANY INDICATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC SYSTEM AT THE 700 AND 850MB LEVELS. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE PROJECTED MONDAY. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE MON PM/EVE. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY GIVEN LOWER FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON TUESDAY...HIGHER WINDS AND CURED GRASS AREAS CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH VERY HIGH TO EXTREME VALUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 48 74 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 HUTCHINSON 46 73 48 82 / 0 0 0 20 NEWTON 47 72 48 81 / 0 0 0 20 ELDORADO 48 73 48 81 / 0 0 0 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 47 76 50 83 / 0 0 0 10 RUSSELL 45 71 47 80 / 0 0 0 20 GREAT BEND 44 72 48 81 / 0 0 0 20 SALINA 47 71 48 80 / 0 0 10 20 MCPHERSON 46 72 48 81 / 0 0 0 20 COFFEYVILLE 48 74 47 78 / 0 0 0 10 CHANUTE 47 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 10 IOLA 47 71 45 77 / 0 0 0 10 PARSONS-KPPF 48 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...JMC FIRE WEATHER...VJP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 828 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 ...Updated to cancel the red flag warning... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 As a surface boundary crosses south central Kansas early this evening the wind speeds had decrease to 10 mph or less. Relative humidity values were also slowly rising so critical fire weather conditions are no longer anticipated. Have cancelled the red flag warning for early this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Very quiet weather. Not much to discuss. Broad ridging west of Kansas, with gentle, dry NW flow aloft. A beautiful spring day with upper 70s and lower 80s expected, and winds veering more NW through late afternoon. A very weak cold front will drift through SW KS this evening accompanied by a northerly wind shift, but that is it. Winds will continue to veer to NE through Monday morning at around 10 mph. Little if any cold air advection, so low temperatures Monday morning still several degrees above early April normals in the lower 40s. Still pleasantly mild Monday in the 70s, with several degrees of cooling, compared to Sunday, mainly across the NE counties. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Tuesday...Unseasonably warm temperatures expected across SW KS, courtesy of downslope SW winds and prefrontal compression. Expect upper 70s north, to mid 80s SE. Strong and gusty SW winds will be most pronounced across the SE zones Tuesday afternoon with gusts of 30-40 mph. Fire weather headlines are likely. Cold front will enter the northern zones early Tuesday afternoon, and progress south quickly, trending winds to strong and gusty NW. Kept low grade slight chances of passing light rain showers, mainly north and east of Dodge City, Tuesday afternoon and evening, before primary vort max passes and subsidence takes over Tuesday night. Moisture will be limited (again) in NW flow aloft. Still, the eastern 1/2 of the CWA may pick up a few hundreths of an inch of rain. This will not be the widespread beneficial rainfall that SW KS desperately needs. Can`t rule out some isolated thunder as well, but kept out of the grids for now. Wednesday...Windy and cooler. GFS 850 mb winds are progged at 50 kts early in the day, before gradually weakening. NW wind gusts of 40-45 mph are expected for a time Wednesday morning. Cold air advection behind the cold front is minimal, with afternoon temperatures only reduced to the upper 60s. Thursday and Friday...Sunny, warmer and dry with breezy north winds. Strong PNA across North America, with strong high pressure ridging over the Rockies, and a strong trough over the Great Lakes. Dry NW flow will result over SW KS. Saturday and beyond...12z ECMWF suggests a synoptic pattern change next weekend, with ridging breaking down, a trough developing over the SW U.S., and dryline evolution over the plains. Kept pops very conservative for now with persistent dry spell continuing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Northwest winds at less than 10 knots will shift to the north northeast early Monday as a weak cold front moves into western Kansas. These northeasterly winds early Monday will gradually veer to the southeast by late day. Wind speeds on Monday are expected to stay in the 10 to 15 knot range. NAM BUFR soundings along with the RAP and HRRR indicating VFR condtions over the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Red flag criteria being observed across the SE fire zones this afternoon, with Medicine Lodge reporting SW wind gusts of 30-35 mph and RH down to 11% as of 3 pm. Will allow the red flag warning to continue. Doubtful the wind criteria will be maintained this evening as the pressure gradients weaken, and the evening shift will likely be able to cancel the red flag warning early before its 9 PM CDT scheduled expiration. Warm afternoon temperatures and strong gusty prefrontal SW winds will likely necessitate Fire Weather Watch issuance for Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 42 75 48 81 / 0 0 10 10 GCK 39 77 46 79 / 0 0 10 20 EHA 41 78 46 83 / 0 0 10 10 LBL 41 77 47 83 / 0 0 10 10 HYS 43 72 49 76 / 0 0 10 20 P28 45 77 50 84 / 0 0 10 10 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Burgert SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Burgert FIRE WEATHER...Turner
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&& .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 JKL VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING 45 TO 50 KTS ONLY 1500 TO 2000 FT ABOVE THE SFC. THUS A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LLWS WE ARE ADVERTISING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME. EXPECT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME OF OUR MORE NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL FALL SOLIDLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT... AND PERHAPS HIGH END IFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. USING A COMPARISON/BLEND OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS WITH SUCH LOW PROBABILITY DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO VEER OUT OF THE WEST... SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RAY
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 349 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A cold front was moving south across central Missouri and central Illinois early this morning. A band of clouds and some light showers accompanied the front. The front will move south across the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri this morning, finally exiting the khop area early this afternoon. The frontal passage still appears dry in our area, based mainly on the RAP and HRRR models. Radar does indicate some very weak echoes aloft developing over the Lower Wabash Valley as of 08z, so a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Following the frontal passage, skies will become sunny this afternoon. There will be a strong temp gradient along the front. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 50s north of Interstate 64 to the lower 70s along the Tennessee and Arkansas borders. Of some concern to fire weather folks is drier air behind the front. Very dry air aloft will mix down this afternoon, and rh values should fall as low as the mid 20s in the Ozark foothills. Winds will be rather gusty, with gusts around 25 mph likely this afternoon. There will be another freeze tonight, mainly in the same areas as Saturday night. The Freeze Watch for parts of southwest IN and southern IL will be upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Low-level winds are forecast to stay up through the night due to a pressure gradient south of the 1034 mb Great Lakes surface high. This should limit frost potential, but patchy frost will be possible. The coldest readings will be in low-lying rural areas sheltered from the wind. Urban areas such as kevv may stay above freezing, as indicated by 00z gfs mos. However, most areas in the Freeze Warning should fall below freezing. Tuesday will be about the only period with no hazardous weather concern of any kind. Temperatures will be on the cool side as the Great Lakes high produces easterly flow across our region. Highs should be mostly in the 50s. The next cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday. This front will be associated with a rather strong 500 mb shortwave trough. A strong southwest low-level jet of 50 knots or more at 850 mb will develop by Wednesday morning. Depending on the amount of sunshine and mixing on Wednesday, gradient winds could become strong at the surface. Based on the Bufkit momentum transfer algorithm, the 00z gfs indicates surface gusts would reach advisory criteria. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely overspread our region on Wednesday ahead of the front. Instability still looks too weak for severe weather, although the day 3 outlook from SPC indicates a marginal risk as far north as the Kentucky state line. The precipitation will end from the west Wednesday evening, followed by clearing and cooler conditions overnight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 The tendency toward an eastern U.S. 500mb trough persists into the extended portion of the forecast. The ECMWF and other models have trended toward the more active GFS regarding the northern stream solution of 500mb troughs progressing SE and carving into the broader eastern U.S. trough through the end of the week. The first of these late week systems will move southeast(500mb short wave and surface low/cold front)keeping a chance of rain in the forecast through Thursday, and a lesser chance even into Thursday night and Friday across the NE part of the FA. Another surge of cooler air will arrive by Thursday night in the wake of yet another 500mb short wave and surface cold front. Will maintain a slight chance of snow showers in the NE late Thursday night given temperature and thickness profiles, including min surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. The next forecast concern which is of major importance given the time of year...is frost/freeze concerns Friday night. Particularly if the GFS solution of the surface high centered over our FA is realized then frost/freeze concerns will increase. The ECMWF/GFS MOS numbers respectedly rang from a low of 24/25 at MVN to 31/35 at POF, so this potential event will have to be watched closely, especially for the N/NE part of the FA. Warm advection should begin by Sunday as the surface high moves east. The ECMWF is most agressive in bringing moisture and possibly some rain showers into the FA from the west.&& && .AVIATION... Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. South southwest winds 10-15 KTS with a few higher gusts will shift around to the northwest with the passage of a cold front around 14-18Z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078. MO...None. IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for INZ081-082-087- 088. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...RLS AVIATION...GM/MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN A RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN CANADA/THE NE STATES. A CLIPPER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU NRN MN. THE DPVA AND INSENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX IN SE CANADA OVERCAME SOME INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AND RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WDSPRD SN OVER UPR MI. THE HEAVIEST SN UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FELL IN A WNW TO ENE SWATH OVER THE CWA FM THE KEWEENAW TO ESCANBA AND MANISTIQUE UNDER FAIRLY SHARP BUT SLOPED H75- 65 FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL OR PRES GRADIENT SHOWN ON THE 285K ISENTROPIC SFC. NEGATIVE EPV IN THE H7-3 LYR AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM AND RELATED TO FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALLY HIER AMNTS. VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB LIMITED SN TOTALS OVER THE FAR SRN CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV ARE MOVING NW-SE ACRS THE CWA...SO THE SN IS DIMINISHING NW-SE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID LVL DRYING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING RELATED TO THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS MORE PRONOUCNED. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS PRESENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C AT YPL AND -24C AT CHURCHILL IN FAR NRN MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS TO THE N OF THE LK IS ALSO RATHER DRY...WITH SFC DEWPTS WELL BLO ZERO. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON GOING WINTER WX ADVYS/SN TOTALS AND THEN TRANSITION TO LK EFFECT SN TNGT INTO MON AS THE COLDER AIR TO THE N FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS. LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE PRONOUCNED DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV AND ANOTHER TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY TNGT...EARLIER EXIT OF THE SHARPER H75-65 FGEN/NEGATIVE EPV BY 00Z AS WELL AS WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS SUGGEST THE DIMINISING SN TRENDS WL CONTINUE. BUT ALLOWED THE ADVYS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TO GO TO 00Z AS THIS AREA WL BE UNDER AXIS OF LINGERING SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME HIER H85-5 RH ON THE CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. AFTER THE STEADY SN/HIER POPS EXIT EARLY THIS EVNG...UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL CAUSE THE SYNOPTIC LIGHT SN TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. AS THIS NE FLOW DRAGS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C TO -18C AND LINGERING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC EXITS...THE SYNOTPIC PCPN WL TRANSITION TO LES. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/SOME LLVL CNVGC/INSTABILITY... INFLUX OF DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. MON...ALTHOUGH CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -18C RANGE WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES AND THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...ARRVIAL OF SFC HI PRES/ACYC LLVL FLOW AS WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING WL CAUSE LES TO DIMINISH TO ISOLD SN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY LLVL AIR WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SN SHOWERS. TEMPS WL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL... ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE CLDS LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E UNDER MORE STUBBORN H85 THERMAL TROF. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN NOAM RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW WILL BRING PCPN AND A SLIGHT WARM UP INTO THE NRN CONUS FROM TUE THROUGH WED. MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVE IN AND FRESH SNOWCOVER...EXPECT MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS INLAND. HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST...MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 20. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL SURGE OF WAA (300K ISENTROPIC LIFT) BRINGING SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY 06Z/WED. CONSENSUS QPF IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE BY 12Z/WED WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF WEST SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 10/1. WED...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNFICANTLY GREATER AS THE GFS/GEM SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WHICH DIGS THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAKER SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WOULD LINGER. THE FCST MAINTAINS LIKELY POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF...MAINLY JUST LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING S CNTRL FOR A MIX WITH RAIN. WED NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C BY 12Z THU WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER GEM/GFS. A TRAILING CLIPPER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA BUT MAY CLIP THE FAR WEST THU. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR LES AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE BY 00Z/FRI. ENOUGH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS FOR LES FAVORED BY NRLY FLOW. SAT-SUN...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND CONSISTENCY LOWER AS THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN CONUS TROUGH. LOWER END (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR WAA AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT... EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION ENHANCES THE SNOW. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RESULTS IN -SHSN DIMINISHING A BIT. -SHSN WILL BE LIGHTER/LESS FREQUENT AT KIWD/KCMX WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN MVFR AND VFR. WITH HIGH PRES MOVING CLOSER TODAY AND ARRIVING THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO PREVAILING VFR AT KIWD/KCMX THIS AFTN. AT KSAW...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR PROBABLY WON`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SRLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE LOW WED INTO WED NIGHT. NRLY WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IMPACT CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH RAIN AND SNOW LOOK LIKELY FOR MID WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 WE HAVE TWEAKED THE WEATHER TYPES A LITTLE THIS EVENING..AND TRIED TO TIME THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. WE WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING ONCE THE PCPN COMES TO AN END UP NORTH. A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR JUST NORTH OF I-96. THESE ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL MENTION REDUCED IMPACTS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL LOWER MI. THAT SAID...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP AND THE H850 WARM SURGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS UNDERWHELMING WITH THIS EVENT...COULD SEE ENOUGH WINTRY MIX OR JUST SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER COINCIDENT WITH FALLING SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS TONIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE I WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED CANCELING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER THE ADVISORY. COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-96 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER. I DON`T SEE MUCH MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW A NARROW LINE OF MODEST CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION TONIGHT. I LEFT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. MONDAY WE ARE SQUARELY IN CAA ONCE AGAIN AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE HURON FOR A TIME. IF WINDS ARE CLOSER TO DUE NORTH THEN THIS WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NEAR/SOUTH OF I-96. NORTH OF THERE...TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-96. A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR PCPN TO FALL AS ALL SNOW THAT AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. RELATIVELY HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT RANGE ARE MOST PROBABLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MKG TO ALMA. PCPN WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LIGHTER MIXED PCPN MAY LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 DECENT CERTAINTY FOR IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06-07Z. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CIGS WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z. TIMING ON THIS IS FAR LESS CERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO VFR IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z. HAVE ADVERTISED VCSH AFTER 17Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX AT THE MKG GRR AND LAN TERMINALS WITH PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FARTHER SOUTH AT AZO BTL AND JXN. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 SCA CONTINUES THROUGH LATER MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES. THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT OUT ON THE LAKE AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THOUGH LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL... MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ848-849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844-845. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846-847. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ SYNOPSIS...HOVING SHORT TERM...HOVING LONG TERM...LAURENS AVIATION...TJT HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 THE RAP MODEL WHICH WORKED THE BEST SUNDAY IS FORECASTING VERY LITTLE COOLING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15C- 20C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS. THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE RAP IS SILENT IN THIS REGARD. WINDS ALOFT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT AND K INDICES IN THE NAM ARE IN THE 30S. THUS THERE MIGHT BE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THE ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS. TONIGHT...DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE CNTL SD. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A 55KT LOW LEVEL JET AIMED AT NCNTL NEB SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN CHANCES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A STRONG PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AND FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS REGION. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PV MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM BEING PACIFIC IN ORIGIN BRINGS SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN CHANCES ARE LACKING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN CONFINE THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS FROM NW NEBRASKA SUGGEST RAPID WET BULB COOLING FOR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. IF RAIN IS REALIZED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SIGNIFICANT DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...SPRINKLES MAY BE ALL THAT IS NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER...WHICH WOULD BE AN ISSUE FOR RANGE FIRE STARTS. TUESDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT RFW CRITERIA RH WILL BE MET AND THE AMOUNT OF FUEL SHADING OWING TO HIGH CLOUDS IS UNCERTAIN. THE LARGE RANGE FIRE CONCERN LIES WITH 1)THE WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 2)WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. 3)THE POSSIBILITY OF MEDIOCRE RH RECOVERY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND THE FACT THAT RH MINIMUM WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL. 4)THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT WILL BE BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND FWF...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE RELATED HEADLINES. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES /NEAR AVERAGE/ ON WEDNESDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXTREMELY GUSTY AND MINIMUM RH FALLS BELOW 25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND SW NEBRASKA. FOR LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE SUGGESTED TO TREND UPWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. 70S ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. BY DAY 7 THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DAY 5 AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 OVERNIGHT LIGHT WINDS WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TOMORROW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON MIXING WILL INCREASE WINDS...GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. ALSO GOING TO SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BKN100 TO BKN150. IN THE VALLEY BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES/DIMINISHING WINDS...WHICH INCLUDES THE KLBF TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AFTER SUNSET AND BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...IMPACTING THE KVTN TERMINAL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 SWRN NEB GETS 20 PERCENT RH WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR EXP AND NAM MODELS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...MASEK FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE NERN PA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE WARM AIR NWD ALONG THE SRN TIER AFTER 8 AM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 925-850MB F-GEN INDUCED BY THE STRONG WAA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS SEEMED TO LIMIT THE AMT OF SNOW. A STRONG PUSH OF DRY 700-500MB AIR FROM THE SW INTO THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIP TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE ROBUST F-GEN TO ALLOW THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO CAUSING -FZDZ IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL. THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES OFF THE RAP SHOW WELL THIS DRY LAYER ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIALLY SUPER- COOLED DROPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR -FZRA IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. AS THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THE LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS MAY NOT WARM UP QUICK ENOUGH...TRAPPING THE SUB- FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC AND ALLOWING FOR FZRA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY TO CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE EARLY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND COMBINE WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. BUT GENERALLY THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE WRN CATSKILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THIS RELIEF WILL COME WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT WED MORNING ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR MASS ADVECTS SLOWLY IN FROM THE SW. THE WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CHILLY TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SPREAD FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WEATHER- MAKING SYSTEMS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND THUS IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT REGARDLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...SOME AREAS MAY MIX BACK TO RAIN BRIEFLY...OTHERS STAY SNOW. TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO DIVE WELL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN UPPER TEENS FOR SOME LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY 30S-NEAR 40 FOR HIGHS AREAWIDE SATURDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT COME...HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BY A SPRING THAT HAS NOT SPRUNG. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SNOW, MODERATE AT TIMES, WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL NY SITES OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT IFR VISBYS HOWEVER KSYR/KRME WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WAFFLING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL A SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING IFR VISBYS. KAVP WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AROUND 8Z WHEN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW MOVES IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. FOR MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF (BY 13-15Z), RESTRICTIONS (MVFR-IFR) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH LINGERING LOW CEILINGS UNTIL PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS LATE MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS MAINLY SE AT 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, E-SE WINDS IN THE MORNING AT OUR NY SITES, AND SW WINDS AT KAVP, WILL TURN N-NW IN THE AFTERNOON, AND BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KT AREA-WIDE). .OUTLOOK... MON NGT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR. LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN. FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ036-037-045-046-057-062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
458 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER A COULD COOL BUT DRY DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE MID WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TRACKING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ALOFT FOR MUCH MORE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. STILL SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR JUST ALOFT EXPECT MIXING TO BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S. FURTHER NORTH A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH COLDER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. EXPECT THE COLDER AIR TO BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BY THAT TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER. WITH PRESSURE RISES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE REGION SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY THE MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS LIKELY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW...OVR S MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-16Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 16Z-20Z AT KJST. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD. THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS. FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPEED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WIDE TEMPERATURE SPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND DEEPER VALLEYS CLOSE TO AND BELOW FREEZING. PRECIPITATION SHIELF SLIDING SOUTH AND LOSING INSTENSITY AND COVERAGE. FORECAST OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA ON TRACK WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL WARMER AIR MIXES AND RAISES TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. STATE COLLEGE COULD SEE PRECIP INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT SLEET OR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN BUT AIR ALOFT IS WARM AND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE QUICKLY. SOUTH WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE RACING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS THE COLDER 850 TEMPS RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT COULD END AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW RACES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW...OVR S MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-16Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 16Z-20Z AT KJST. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD. THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS. FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1153 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL SPEED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THE STEADIEST SHIELD OF SNOW IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN NY...WITH THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN PA BEING OF A MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY NATURE. HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO NY STATE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE LARGER AREA IS MADE TO DROP SE INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...I SLICED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BY MAYBE HALF OR MORE GIVEN THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AGREES TEMPERATURES AT 850 GO ABOVE ZERO BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT ICING AS SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN OVER SLOW TO RECOVER SURFACE TEMPS. I MENTIONED ICE PELLETS GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE RACING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS THE COLDER 850 TEMPS RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT COULD END AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW RACES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH...THE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT -20F BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. 02/12Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FRIDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND WAS SLIGHTLY WARM ON TEMPERATURES SO BROUGHT IT DOWN A BIT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS BASED ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC LOW...OVR S MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY MONDAY. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA TO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS AT KBFD ARND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA...PTYPE WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE SURGE OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE KJST...WHERE CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO GROUND LEVEL...LIMITING THE LLWS THREAT. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LLWS THREAT WILL ABATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BTWN 11Z-14Z. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...DETERIORATING CIGS EXPECTED AS PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING. UPSLOPING FLOW COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD IFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-16Z AT KBFD AND BTWN 16Z-20Z AT KJST. OUTLOOK... TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...PM SHRA/CIGS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD. THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS. FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE LONG TERM...ROSS/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
411 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 AT 3 AM...A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM EMPORIA KANSAS TO CLEVELAND OHIO. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...CYCLONIC FLOW HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE EVEN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 04.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF ANY FLURRIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH 04.15Z. SINCE THIS THREAT LOOKS SO SMALL...IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ANTI-CYCLONIC THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 50 TO 100 MB LAYER OF MOISTURE /BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB/ WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DUE TO THIS...THE CLEARING TREND WAS SLOWED DOWN. LIKE MANY TIMES IN THESE SYNOPTIC SITUATIONS...WE DO NOT TYPICALLY SEE CLEARING UNTIL THE 925 TO 850 MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN UNTIL THIS EVENING...HELD OFF THE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL THEN. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY DROP...AND THEN THERE WILL BE A RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /LOWER 20S/ TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IN CLARK /PRIMARILY NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29/ AND TAYLOR COUNTIES WHERE THE NOSE OF THE WARM LAYER WILL ONLY CLIMB TO 1.5F AT MOST AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THESE AREAS LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH DURING THE MORNING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW... AND THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO A DEPTH OF 1500 TO 2000 FEET. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE LATEST GFS COBB DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE EMCWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A 3 TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD IN MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE THERE IS NO REAL CLEAR SIGNAL ON WHICH SIDE OF THIS ZONE THE AREA WILL END UP...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 STILL WATCHING THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE CEILINGS IN THIS BAND HAVE COME DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR...THEY HAVE ONLY MADE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH WHILE BECOMING A LITTLE UNORGANIZED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE 04.00Z NAM REMAINS VERY BULLISH ON BRINGING THIS CLOUD DECK INTO KLSE OVERNIGHT BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT NEARLY AS CLEAR AT KRST. THE 04.03Z RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE DECK WILL NOT MAKE IT TO KRST OVERNIGHT BUT THAT A CEILING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING ONCE SOME HEATING STARTS TO WORK ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...WILL GO MORE WITH THE RAP AND SHOW SOME SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR KRST OVERNIGHT WITH A CEILING DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR BEFORE GOING UP TO VFR SO JUST OPTED TO GO WITH A VFR CEILING. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN WORKING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND STILL FEEL THESE WILL MAKE INTO KLSE OVERNIGHT WITH A MVFR CEILING THAT WILL THEN GO UP TO VFR MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME MIXING. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THIS VFR CEILING WILL THEN REMAIN...BUT OPTED TO HOLD IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT EARLY MONDAY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY...THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH WISCONSIN. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 15.5 FEET TODAY...AND THEN GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON TUESDAY. OTHER RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH WING OF 850- 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...AS ADVERTISED...AN IMPRESSIVE NE-SW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S SOUTH OF I-94. FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MN WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY FOR US. NAM 0.5-1KM RH FIELD AND LATEST SYNTHETIC 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COLDER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY...HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. PLAN ON LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 STRONG WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/850-700MB ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCES A NW-SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MORNING BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM BY LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THERE COULD BE UP TO 1/2 INCH MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS LOWER COLUMN/SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING IN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...SOME FLAKES COULD MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING FOR ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING WAVE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FOR SMALL-END RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A LITTLE HOPE ON THE HORIZON FOR MILDER WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD ALSO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS LOOKS LIKE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 STILL WATCHING THE BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE CEILINGS IN THIS BAND HAVE COME DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR...THEY HAVE ONLY MADE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH WHILE BECOMING A LITTLE UNORGANIZED OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE 04.00Z NAM REMAINS VERY BULLISH ON BRINGING THIS CLOUD DECK INTO KLSE OVERNIGHT BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT NEARLY AS CLEAR AT KRST. THE 04.03Z RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE DECK WILL NOT MAKE IT TO KRST OVERNIGHT BUT THAT A CEILING WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING ONCE SOME HEATING STARTS TO WORK ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...WILL GO MORE WITH THE RAP AND SHOW SOME SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR KRST OVERNIGHT WITH A CEILING DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR BEFORE GOING UP TO VFR SO JUST OPTED TO GO WITH A VFR CEILING. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN WORKING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND STILL FEEL THESE WILL MAKE INTO KLSE OVERNIGHT WITH A MVFR CEILING THAT WILL THEN GO UP TO VFR MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME MIXING. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THIS VFR CEILING WILL THEN REMAIN...BUT OPTED TO HOLD IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT EARLY MONDAY EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 15.5 FEET MONDAY MORNING. OTHER RIVERWAYS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT REMAIN WITHIN BANK THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...DAS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1044 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Breezy and unseasonably cool conditions prevail across central Illinois this morning. A large area of low clouds associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes has been sinking slowly southward across north-central Illinois over the past few hours. The southern edge of the cloud deck has been eroding since the sun has risen...and am expecting this trend to continue throughout the day. HRRR has consistently been pushing the clouds further south than they actually are, so will trim back its forecast based on latest satellite loops/obs. End result will be a mostly cloudy day along and north of a Lacon...to Champaign...to Paris line. Further south and west, mostly sunny skies will be the rule. Brisk northerly winds gusting to between 20 and 25 mph will keep temperatures several degree below normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will range from the lower to middle 40s along/north of I-74...to around 60 degrees far SE near Lawrenceville. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A band of light showers will continue to move southeast through the area early this morning, but should have dissipated or have moved out of the area by 8am. So, to account for the current scattered showers, will have pre-first period in upcoming forecast. These light showers are associated with a cold front that is moving through the area which will cause all winds to go from southwest to northerly. There will be some wind gusts, but only looking at 20 to 25 mph, even with the FROPA. Once the front/pcpn passes, conditions will be dry the rest of the day. Clouds associated with the front will move out, but lower clouds appear to be moving down from the north. HRRR has the lower clouds getting into northern parts of the CWA, but then not really into the rest of the CWA. NAM-WRF does have higher RH getting into the area today and into this afternoon, and this looks little more reasonable of a forecast. So, took a compromise between the two models and have some clouds, with most being in the east. Temps will be below normal again with mid 40s along I-74 to the mid 50s in the southeast. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Colder air mass in place overnight behind the frontal boundary for Central Illinois. Temperature drop further aided by light winds under the narrow ridge axis in concert with eroding cloud cover. Resulting overnight lows in the upper 20s, with a freeze warning in effect yet again, as some tender and new vegetation has already started. Breezy southerly winds kick back in on Tuesday in advance of the next wave bringing the threat of precip for Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A bit of a question mark for the threat of thunder on Wednesday, but with the frontal boundary passing through with the rainfall...at least keeping a scattered mention in there for now, regardless of the borderline lapse rates. If the more developed sfc low in the GFS materializes, the low center will be just to the north and close enough for a thunder mention as well...at least until the afternoon/evening hours. Models have become rather consistent with another wave quick on the heels of the Wed system for Thursday. Placement within the northwesterly flow is a little diffuse at this point, and the blends are still coming in with low chance solutions. If this persists...will likely see the pops for Thursday climb a bit. Wed night will be a transition...with a potential for a couple of breaks, before another round of precip on Thursday. So far, the northwesterly flow established for the end of the week has a series of smaller waves keeping the forecast wet until Fri night/Saturday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region for the first portion of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 MVFR clouds around 1.6kft are advecting into the area from the northeast and should cover PIA/BMI/CMI at the start of the TAF period. AC clouds around 10kft are effecting SPI and DEC, but should see some MVFR clouds in a couple of hours. HRRR model seems to have a pretty good handle on these clouds and the possible westward extent of the clouds this morning. Believe, based on HRRR and sfc wind flow, that MVFR clouds will last longest at BMI and CMI, and then to a lesser extent at PIA and DEC. Thinking that at SPI the broken cigs will be TEMPO so have scattered as predominate. Cig heights should go up as heating occurs and then scatter out at PIA and DEC during the afternoon. As ridging moves across the area, northerly winds will be northeast and believe this will keep clouds over CMI and BMI this evening, with scattered clouds elsewhere. Then all sites should clear out around midnight. North winds will be breezy with gusts to 20-22kts during the day. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1013 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .UPDATE... 1008 AM CDT DECENT ECHOES ON THE TMKE RADAR WHERE CONVERGENCE IS A BIT BETTER. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S AND 850 TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN TODAY...SOME WEAK LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE MORE FLURRIES AS THE CONVERGENCE SIGNAL IS NOT AS STRONG ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE MODEST...AND THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE WARMING TODAY CLOSER TO THE LAKE WITH SOME SMALL RECOVERIES INLAND. KMD && .SHORT TERM... 307 AM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE STUBBORN MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS QUICKLY TURNED NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS SHIELD DRIFTING SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN IL...AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE DAYBREAK. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK/NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD LIFT PARCELS INTO THE STRATUS LAYER AND EASILY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST IL...BUT COULD DRIFT INLAND A WAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE HELD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH P-TYPE POSSIBLY BEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY DUE TO AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL TROUGH OF -6 TO -10 DEG C OVERHEAD AND THICK CLOUD SHIELD. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS ALONG NORTHEAST IL IN THE MID 30S...MEANWHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 TO PERHAPS THE LOW 40S. BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE SPOTTY CONVERGENCE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND SHOULD ERODE A PORTION OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE CHALLENGE MAY BE THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE ARRIVES OVERHEAD THE MIXING AND EROSION OF THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE MINIMIZED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. IT DOES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CLOUDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY RADIATE INTO THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 307 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LONGWAVE PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF TUE...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE SHORT LIVED AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY MIDDAY TUE. AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW A STEADY FEED OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AS TEMPS QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA UNTIL CLOSER TO LATE TUE MORNING...BUT THE MOIST ADVECTION WING ARRIVES LATE TUE MORNING AND SHOULD SEE STEADY MOISTENING WITH PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWFA BY TUE AFTN. TUE NGT A COUPLE WEAK SFC FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN PHASE WITH THE STRONGER 500MB VORT MAX. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A MODEST LLVL NOCTURNAL JET...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUE NGT THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD HEADING INTO WED MORNING. HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT COULD SEE GENERALLY THE MID 40S AS WE APPROACH TUE NGT. WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN IL...A FEW BRIEF STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. SO HAVE ADJUSTED QPF IN THE TUE NGT/WED MORNING PERIOD TO BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF RAIN. HEADING INTO MID WEEK OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC/NORTHERN IL WED MIDDAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO ARRIVE WED AFTN AND BRING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA WED NGT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL LIKELY PUSH WED HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS ELUDED TO BEHIND THE FRONT...FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK INTO A NORTHWEST PATTERN WITH RIDGING BECOMING AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WED NGT INTO THUR. BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE WED WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ARRIVE THUR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 40S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE THEME OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRI. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH COULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LEAVING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POST FRONTAL MVFR LEVEL STRATUS. UPSTREAM...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...LIFTING DIURNALLY BACK TO VFR AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND SCATTERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE MID AND OCCASIONALLY UPPER 20 KT RANGE...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND DOWN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH NEARS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE BACK ABOVE 10 KT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. BMD && .MARINE... 254 AM CDT NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR WINDS TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW...RAMPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE LOW CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL DROP JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 649 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A band of light showers will continue to move southeast through the area early this morning, but should have dissipated or have moved out of the area by 8am. So, to account for the current scattered showers, will have pre-first period in upcoming forecast. These light showers are associated with a cold front that is moving through the area which will cause all winds to go from southwest to northerly. There will be some wind gusts, but only looking at 20 to 25 mph, even with the FROPA. Once the front/pcpn passes, conditions will be dry the rest of the day. Clouds associated with the front will move out, but lower clouds appear to be moving down from the north. HRRR has the lower clouds getting into northern parts of the CWA, but then not really into the rest of the CWA. NAM-WRF does have higher RH getting into the area today and into this afternoon, and this looks little more reasonable of a forecast. So, took a compromise between the two models and have some clouds, with most being in the east. Temps will be below normal again with mid 40s along I-74 to the mid 50s in the southeast. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Colder air mass in place overnight behind the frontal boundary for Central Illinois. Temperature drop further aided by light winds under the narrow ridge axis in concert with eroding cloud cover. Resulting overnight lows in the upper 20s, with a freeze warning in effect yet again, as some tender and new vegetation has already started. Breezy southerly winds kick back in on Tuesday in advance of the next wave bringing the threat of precip for Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A bit of a question mark for the threat of thunder on Wednesday, but with the frontal boundary passing through with the rainfall...at least keeping a scattered mention in there for now, regardless of the borderline lapse rates. If the more developed sfc low in the GFS materializes, the low center will be just to the north and close enough for a thunder mention as well...at least until the afternoon/evening hours. Models have become rather consistent with another wave quick on the heels of the Wed system for Thursday. Placement within the northwesterly flow is a little diffuse at this point, and the blends are still coming in with low chance solutions. If this persists...will likely see the pops for Thursday climb a bit. Wed night will be a transition...with a potential for a couple of breaks, before another round of precip on Thursday. So far, the northwesterly flow established for the end of the week has a series of smaller waves keeping the forecast wet until Fri night/Saturday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region for the first portion of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 MVFR clouds around 1.6kft are advecting into the area from the northeast and should cover PIA/BMI/CMI at the start of the TAF period. AC clouds around 10kft are effecting SPI and DEC, but should see some MVFR clouds in a couple of hours. HRRR model seems to have a pretty good handle on these clouds and the possible westward extent of the clouds this morning. Believe, based on HRRR and sfc wind flow, that MVFR clouds will last longest at BMI and CMI, and then to a lesser extent at PIA and DEC. Thinking that at SPI the broken cigs will be TEMPO so have scattered as predominate. Cig heights should go up as heating occurs and then scatter out at PIA and DEC during the afternoon. As ridging moves across the area, northerly winds will be northeast and believe this will keep clouds over CMI and BMI this evening, with scattered clouds elsewhere. Then all sites should clear out around midnight. North winds will be breezy with gusts to 20-22kts during the day. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
630 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM... 307 AM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE STUBBORN MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS QUICKLY TURNED NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS SHIELD DRIFTING SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN IL...AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE DAYBREAK. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK/NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD LIFT PARCELS INTO THE STRATUS LAYER AND EASILY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST IL...BUT COULD DRIFT INLAND A WAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE HELD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH P-TYPE POSSIBLY BEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY DUE TO AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL TROUGH OF -6 TO -10 DEG C OVERHEAD AND THICK CLOUD SHIELD. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS ALONG NORTHEAST IL IN THE MID 30S...MEANWHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 TO PERHAPS THE LOW 40S. BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE SPOTTY CONVERGENCE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND SHOULD ERODE A PORTION OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE CHALLENGE MAY BE THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE ARRIVES OVERHEAD THE MIXING AND EROSION OF THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE MINIMIZED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. IT DOES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CLOUDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY RADIATE INTO THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 307 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LONGWAVE PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF TUE...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE SHORT LIVED AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY MIDDAY TUE. AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW A STEADY FEED OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AS TEMPS QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA UNTIL CLOSER TO LATE TUE MORNING...BUT THE MOIST ADVECTION WING ARRIVES LATE TUE MORNING AND SHOULD SEE STEADY MOISTENING WITH PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWFA BY TUE AFTN. TUE NGT A COUPLE WEAK SFC FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN PHASE WITH THE STRONGER 500MB VORT MAX. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A MODEST LLVL NOCTURNAL JET...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUE NGT THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD HEADING INTO WED MORNING. HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT COULD SEE GENERALLY THE MID 40S AS WE APPROACH TUE NGT. WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN IL...A FEW BRIEF STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. SO HAVE ADJUSTED QPF IN THE TUE NGT/WED MORNING PERIOD TO BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF RAIN. HEADING INTO MID WEEK OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC/NORTHERN IL WED MIDDAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO ARRIVE WED AFTN AND BRING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA WED NGT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL LIKELY PUSH WED HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS ELUDED TO BEHIND THE FRONT...FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK INTO A NORTHWEST PATTERN WITH RIDGING BECOMING AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WED NGT INTO THUR. BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE WED WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ARRIVE THUR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 40S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE THEME OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRI. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH COULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LEAVING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POST FRONTAL MVFR LEVEL STRATUS. UPSTREAM...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...LIFTING DIURNALLY BACK TO VFR AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND SCATTERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE MID AND OCCASIONALLY UPPER 20 KT RANGE...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND DOWN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH NEARS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE BACK ABOVE 10 KT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. BMD && .MARINE... 254 AM CDT NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR WINDS TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW...RAMPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE LOW CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL DROP JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 342 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A band of light showers will continue to move southeast through the area early this morning, but should have dissipated or have moved out of the area by 8am. So, to account for the current scattered showers, will have pre-first period in upcoming forecast. These light showers are associated with a cold front that is moving through the area which will cause all winds to go from southwest to northerly. There will be some wind gusts, but only looking at 20 to 25 mph, even with the FROPA. Once the front/pcpn passes, conditions will be dry the rest of the day. Clouds associated with the front will move out, but lower clouds appear to be moving down from the north. HRRR has the lower clouds getting into northern parts of the CWA, but then not really into the rest of the CWA. NAM-WRF does have higher RH getting into the area today and into this afternoon, and this looks little more reasonable of a forecast. So, took a compromise between the two models and have some clouds, with most being in the east. Temps will be below normal again with mid 40s along I-74 to the mid 50s in the southeast. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Colder air mass in place overnight behind the frontal boundary for Central Illinois. Temperature drop further aided by light winds under the narrow ridge axis in concert with eroding cloud cover. Resulting overnight lows in the upper 20s, with a freeze warning in effect yet again, as some tender and new vegetation has already started. Breezy southerly winds kick back in on Tuesday in advance of the next wave bringing the threat of precip for Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A bit of a question mark for the threat of thunder on Wednesday, but with the frontal boundary passing through with the rainfall...at least keeping a scattered mention in there for now, regardless of the borderline lapse rates. If the more developed sfc low in the GFS materializes, the low center will be just to the north and close enough for a thunder mention as well...at least until the afternoon/evening hours. Models have become rather consistent with another wave quick on the heels of the Wed system for Thursday. Placement within the northwesterly flow is a little diffuse at this point, and the blends are still coming in with low chance solutions. If this persists...will likely see the pops for Thursday climb a bit. Wed night will be a transition...with a potential for a couple of breaks, before another round of precip on Thursday. So far, the northwesterly flow established for the end of the week has a series of smaller waves keeping the forecast wet until Fri night/Saturday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region for the first portion of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016 Strong and gusty SW winds will continue a few additional hours south of KPIA-KBMI. Low level wind shear possible where gustiness subsides until 09Z as 50 kt WSW flow at 2000 ft AGL. Decreasing flow aloft will follow a shift toward northerly winds following a cold frontal passage, eliminating LLWS. This cold front will push southward by 09Z. Scattered -shra, isold -tsra possible ahead of the cold front, although chances for thunderstorms at terminals too low for mention in TAFs at this time. Winds N around 15 kts are expected from 08-10Z until 00Z. Winds decreasing after 00Z. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
611 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 THE RAP MODEL WHICH WORKED THE BEST SUNDAY IS FORECASTING VERY LITTLE COOLING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15C- 20C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS. THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE RAP IS SILENT IN THIS REGARD. WINDS ALOFT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT AND K INDICES IN THE NAM ARE IN THE 30S. THUS THERE MIGHT BE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THE ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS. TONIGHT...DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE CNTL SD. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A 55KT LOW LEVEL JET AIMED AT NCNTL NEB SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN CHANCES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A STRONG PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AND FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS REGION. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PV MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM BEING PACIFIC IN ORIGIN BRINGS SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN CHANCES ARE LACKING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN CONFINE THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS FROM NW NEBRASKA SUGGEST RAPID WET BULB COOLING FOR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. IF RAIN IS REALIZED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SIGNIFICANT DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...SPRINKLES MAY BE ALL THAT IS NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER...WHICH WOULD BE AN ISSUE FOR RANGE FIRE STARTS. TUESDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT RFW CRITERIA RH WILL BE MET AND THE AMOUNT OF FUEL SHADING OWING TO HIGH CLOUDS IS UNCERTAIN. THE LARGE RANGE FIRE CONCERN LIES WITH 1)THE WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 2)WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. 3)THE POSSIBILITY OF MEDIOCRE RH RECOVERY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND THE FACT THAT RH MINIMUM WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL. 4)THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT WILL BE BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND FWF...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE RELATED HEADLINES. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES /NEAR AVERAGE/ ON WEDNESDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXTREMELY GUSTY AND MINIMUM RH FALLS BELOW 25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND SW NEBRASKA. FOR LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE SUGGESTED TO TREND UPWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. 70S ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. BY DAY 7 THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DAY 5 AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING...ISOLATED LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 61. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM ROUGHLY 06Z TONIGHT ONWARD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 SWRN NEB GETS 20 PERCENT RH WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR EXP AND NAM MODELS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CDC FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1118 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11 AM UPDATE...SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRES OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA WHICH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NE PA AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR ERN FA IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NRN WAYNE COUNTY IN NRN PA. HERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM. STRONG TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH MAXES IN THE NRN FA IN THE UPPER 20S WITH THE WYOMING VALLEY IN THE MID 40S. OVER NE PA RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE. PREVIOUS DISC... MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE NERN PA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE WARM AIR NWD ALONG THE SRN TIER AFTER 8 AM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 925-850MB F-GEN INDUCED BY THE STRONG WAA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS SEEMED TO LIMIT THE AMT OF SNOW. A STRONG PUSH OF DRY 700-500MB AIR FROM THE SW INTO THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIP TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE ROBUST F-GEN TO ALLOW THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO CAUSING -FZDZ IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL. THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES OFF THE RAP SHOW WELL THIS DRY LAYER ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIALLY SUPER- COOLED DROPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR -FZRA IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. AS THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THE LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS MAY NOT WARM UP QUICK ENOUGH...TRAPPING THE SUB- FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC AND ALLOWING FOR FZRA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY TO CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE EARLY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND COMBINE WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. BUT GENERALLY THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE WRN CATSKILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THIS RELIEF WILL COME WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT WED MORNING ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR MASS ADVECTS SLOWLY IN FROM THE SW. THE WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CHILLY TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SPREAD FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WEATHER- MAKING SYSTEMS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND THUS IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT REGARDLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...SOME AREAS MAY MIX BACK TO RAIN BRIEFLY...OTHERS STAY SNOW. TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO DIVE WELL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN UPPER TEENS FOR SOME LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY 30S-NEAR 40 FOR HIGHS AREAWIDE SATURDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT COME...HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BY A SPRING THAT HAS NOT SPRUNG. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MESSY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING....NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WILL BRING SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN FOR KELM/KBGM WITH VISBYS LIKELY MVFR AT WORST. EXPECT KBGM TO SEE MAINLY IFR CIGS WITH KELM ALSO SEEING IFR CIGS AT TIMES. FARTHER NORTH, FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY MAINLY SNOW AND STILL PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER BANDS. KAVP HASN`T SEEN MUCH PRECIP YET BUT WILL SEE MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS AS PRECIP MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES OUT WITH MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER, LASTING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING BY THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY E/SE 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT TO N/NW THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... TUE THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR. LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN. FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ046-057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
710 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE NERN PA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE WARM AIR NWD ALONG THE SRN TIER AFTER 8 AM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 925-850MB F-GEN INDUCED BY THE STRONG WAA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS SEEMED TO LIMIT THE AMT OF SNOW. A STRONG PUSH OF DRY 700-500MB AIR FROM THE SW INTO THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIP TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE ROBUST F-GEN TO ALLOW THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO CAUSING -FZDZ IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL. THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES OFF THE RAP SHOW WELL THIS DRY LAYER ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIALLY SUPER- COOLED DROPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR -FZRA IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. AS THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THE LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS MAY NOT WARM UP QUICK ENOUGH...TRAPPING THE SUB- FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC AND ALLOWING FOR FZRA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY TO CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE EARLY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND COMBINE WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. BUT GENERALLY THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE WRN CATSKILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THIS RELIEF WILL COME WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT WED MORNING ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR MASS ADVECTS SLOWLY IN FROM THE SW. THE WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CHILLY TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SPREAD FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WEATHER- MAKING SYSTEMS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND THUS IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT REGARDLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...SOME AREAS MAY MIX BACK TO RAIN BRIEFLY...OTHERS STAY SNOW. TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO DIVE WELL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN UPPER TEENS FOR SOME LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY 30S-NEAR 40 FOR HIGHS AREAWIDE SATURDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT COME...HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BY A SPRING THAT HAS NOT SPRUNG. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MESSY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING....NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING WILL BRING SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN FOR KELM/KBGM WITH VISBYS LIKELY MVFR AT WORST. EXPECT KBGM TO SEE MAINLY IFR CIGS WITH KELM ALSO SEEING IFR CIGS AT TIMES. FARTHER NORTH, FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY MAINLY SNOW AND STILL PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER BANDS. KAVP HASN`T SEEN MUCH PRECIP YET BUT WILL SEE MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS AS PRECIP MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES OUT WITH MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER, LASTING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING BY THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY E/SE 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT TO N/NW THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... TUE THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR. LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN. FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ036-037-045-046-057-062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
304 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 UPPER RIDGE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME. RAP AND NAM INDICATE NEUTRAL AND WEAK NEG QG ASCENT OVER THE AREA. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE CO/KS STATELINE SEPARATES SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID SELY FLOW OVER KS FROM DRIER LESS HUMID S-SWLY FLOW OVER ERN CO. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE...POORLY DEFINED SFC TROUGH LIES JUST EAST OF DENVER. EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH BNDRY LAYER WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/ CLOUDS VISIBLE ON SAT IMAGERY NOW REACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA IS APART OF AN UPPER AIR SYSTEM...ITS AXIS PRESENTLY OVER WRN IDAHO/ERN NEVADA. QG OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE A NARROW NORTH- SOUTH RIBBON OF WEAK/MODERATE ASCENT ALIGNED WITH A HEAVY CLOUD BAND PASSING OVER WRN UTAH. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AT ITS PRESENT SPEED SHOULD SEE THIS SYNOPTICALLY PRODUCED CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING OVER THE N-CNTRL COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AND NOT LOOK AFTER THAT THE FORMATION OF FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LOWERING CONDENSATION LEVEL. MEANWHILE EAST OF THE MTNS...SHOULD ALSO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A TRANSITION TO SLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT...NAM...GFS AND RAP SHOW MID-LEVEL QG ASCENT INCREASING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. 18Z RUN OF THE NAM AND RAP NOW INDICATE ONLY LIMITED QPF FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS NOT KICKED BY THEN. EAST OF THE MTNS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT DEEPENS DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS. THE BUSINESS END OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY PASS OVER THE NRN/CNTRL CO MTNS SETTING OFF A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER NOTHING YET EAST OF THE MTNS PRIOR TO 18Z. MODELS SHOW A STAND-UP COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVANCING TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING THEN OUT ACROSS NERN CO PLAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS BNDRY STALLING OUT FOR A TIME ROUGHLY ALONG A JULESBURG TO LIMON LINE. IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BNDRY LOW CAPES AND SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW T-SHOWERS. ANY QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG POST-TROUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO WORK DOWNWARD TO PRODUCE 25-40KT NWLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO KICKS IN SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. GUSTY W-NWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OR EVEN PREVENT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE REACHED IN MOST AREAS BEFORE 19Z. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 BY TUESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL AID IN DRYING EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT WILL HELP TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY FOR DENVER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED GRADIENT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE LOW EXITING TO THE SE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NW COLORADO. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE ZONAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF SOUTHERN CA BY 18Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THAT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS HAS BACKED OFF THE LOW ENTERING NE COLORADO UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND DOES NOT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EC PLACE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 4 2016 VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA AT PRESENT TIME. OVERNIGHT...SKIES GRADUALLY FILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM UTAH. SHOULD SEE A DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN SETTING UP BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 12 KTS. ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY AS A STAND-UP COLD FRONT BLOWS EAST ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. EXPECT GUSTY NWLY POST- FRONTAL WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 35 KTS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL LOW ON ON TUESDAY. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM...BOWEN AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
357 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM... 206 PM CDT THROUGH TUESDAY... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO OHARE TO KANKAKEE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN SOME WET ROADS. THE HEAVIER ECHOES ARE TRANSIENT GIVEN MARGINAL INVERSION HEIGHTS AND SUBPAR MOISTURE COLDER THAN -10C. THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO THIN IN THE COMING HOURS BUT LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 300-400 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS..SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW THE MOISTURE LAYER TO THIN...BUT ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL THINNING OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK. THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF CLEARING WILL DIRECTLY DETERMINE THE COOLING TREND TONIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S...SOME MID TO POSSIBLY LOWER 20S AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAKER LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY CARRY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-88 AND WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO DURING THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT BENIGN...AND WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND IN PLACE...THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GOOD...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KMD && .LONG TERM... 345 PM CDT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... AN OVERALL DECIDEDLY WINTER LIKE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING APRIL...RESULTING IN ACTIVE WEATHER AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVEN PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK THAT MOVED ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. A VERY STRONG 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND APPROACH OF SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ON THE MODELS BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SETUP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SECONDARY LEAD WAVE WILL FOCUS INTO THE NORTHERN/ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE EVENING WITH POPS TAILORED TOWARD THIS IDEA. VERY INTENSE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS WELL AS STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND THEN EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION COULD YIELD ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LOW DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB TO THE LOWER 40S AND REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE THEREAFTER WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AFTER HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. TRAILING MIDLEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN BAND OVER THE AREA...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAINTY BROADBRUSHED WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. PRECIP RATES WILL BE KEY IN WHETHER FULL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CAN OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVEN BY IMPRESSIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE (2014-2015 ESQUE) RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. THESE DETAILS WILL BE HONED IN OVER THE COMING DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AT THIS DISTANCE LOOKS FAVORABLE BELIEVE IT OR NOT ON MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...BUT HELD WITH CHANCE POPS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS BACK ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH RAIN POTENTIAL RETURNING AND PERHAPS EVEN THUNDER THOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO GRIDS YET. RC && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z TAFS: - LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY REDUCTION - GUSTY NE WINDS - MVFR CIGS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING ORD AND MDW. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AND ANYTHING LESS THAN 5-6SM WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND UNDER AND MORE INTENSE ECHOES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSIENT AND LESS 5-10 MINUTES AT A TIME AT MOST. THIS WOULD ALSO LARGELY BE EXPECTED EAST OF ORD. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AND SHOULD TREND TOWARD LOWER END VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SUSTAINED 12-14 KT WINDS BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. A LEADING BAND OF WEAKENING RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT A LINE FROM RFD TO ORD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. KMD && .MARINE... 254 AM CDT NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR WINDS TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW...RAMPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE LOW CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL DROP JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 256 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 18z/1pm surface map shows cold front just south of the Ohio River, while a 1031mb high builds southward out of Manitoba. Low clouds associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes continue to drop southward behind the departing front, with latest visible satellite imagery showing scattered to broken clouds along/north of a Macomb to Paris line. HRRR suggests these clouds may develop a bit further south over the next couple of hours before rapidly dissipating early this evening. Based on the highly diurnal look to the clouds on satellite, think clearing will indeed occur quickly near or just after sunset. Will hang on to a few clouds from Bloomington to Champaign through mid-evening, then will go mostly clear across the board for the remainder of the night. Brisk northerly winds will become east-northeast and decrease to less than 10 mph tonight as Manitoba high builds into the Great Lakes. Thanks to clearing skies and diminishing winds, overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper 20s. Current Freeze Warning along and south of a Rushville...to Lincoln...to Danville line will remain in place with no changes planned at this time. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Fairly active pattern on tap for the upcoming week, with periods of rain showers and some thunderstorms, breezy conditions at times, and shots of cold air with potential freezing conditions and even a bit of snow. Mother Nature can`t seem to decide what season to go with at the moment. Deep upper trough currently along the Pacific Northwest coast will close off an upper low over northern Montana overnight, helping to intensify an Alberta Clipper which will dive into the Midwest around mid week. Rather dry layer below 10,000 feet will need to be overcome before any precip arrives, as high pressure drifting eastward won`t provide much of a return flow late Tuesday evening. Have maintained some slight chance PoP`s during the day over the far north as initial shot of energy tracks across the upper Midwest, but think main period of rain will be after midnight Tuesday night through early Wednesday afternoon, once the cold front passes through. Far southeast CWA may remain dry until early Wednesday morning, with the cold front still over the northwest part of Illinois at sunrise. MUCAPE`s of 300-500 J/kg progged over the region, so will maintain a mention of thunder as well. Wraparound showers likely to follow as the upper trough passes through Wednesday night. Next Canadian storm system will be close behind, forming over northern British Columbia Tuesday and diving into the Midwest by Thursday morning. Scattered showers will accompany its passage, with the threat lingering over the eastern CWA into Friday as a strong northwest flow brings another upper trough/low into the region. Can`t rule out some snow accompanying the rain as 850 mb temperatures drop to around -8C. Current indications are that this system may very well be accompanied by a hard freeze Friday night with lows in the mid-upper 20s. Upper pattern over the weekend transitions into more of a split flow as low pressure drifts in from off the southern California coast, and another wave tracks along the Canadian border. Some timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF on how fast the precipitation returns, but both have at least scattered showers in by Sunday afternoon. The associated frontal boundary is expected to hang up in between the split flow Sunday night, lingering into Monday. The ECMWF is stronger with digging this northern wave, and thus favors a stronger surface reflection with thunderstorms more likely. Not going into that full-scale at the moment given it`s still several days out, but have included a chance of thunder over the southeast third of the forecast area Monday, with isolated chances elsewhere. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Low clouds are spreading slowly southward early this afternoon, although the southern periphery of the cloud cover continues to erode. Based on satellite loops and HRRR forecasts, it appears ceilings will be likely at the I-74 terminals...while partly to mostly clear skies persist further south at KSPI and KDEC. Thickest/lowest clouds are generally from KBMI to KCMI, where MVFR ceilings will occur for the next couple of hours before rising to VFR by mid to late afternoon. Diurnal nature of cloud cover is evident on satellite, so am expecting rapid dissipation toward sunset. Winds will be northerly at 10 to 15kt with gusts to around 20kt through the afternoon. As high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, winds will veer to the E/NE and decrease to less than 10kt tonight, then will continue to veer to the E/SE by Tuesday morning. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1256 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .UPDATE...1008 AM CDT DECENT ECHOES ON THE TMKE RADAR WHERE CONVERGENCE IS A BIT BETTER. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S AND 850 TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN TODAY...SOME WEAK LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE MORE FLURRIES AS THE CONVERGENCE SIGNAL IS NOT AS STRONG ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE MODEST...AND THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE WARMING TODAY CLOSER TO THE LAKE WITH SOME SMALL RECOVERIES INLAND. KMD && .SHORT TERM... 307 AM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE STUBBORN MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS QUICKLY TURNED NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRATUS SHIELD DRIFTING SOUTH FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN IL...AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE DAYBREAK. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK/NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD LIFT PARCELS INTO THE STRATUS LAYER AND EASILY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST IL...BUT COULD DRIFT INLAND A WAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE HELD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH P-TYPE POSSIBLY BEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY DUE TO AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL TROUGH OF -6 TO -10 DEG C OVERHEAD AND THICK CLOUD SHIELD. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS ALONG NORTHEAST IL IN THE MID 30S...MEANWHILE INLAND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 TO PERHAPS THE LOW 40S. BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE SPOTTY CONVERGENCE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND SHOULD ERODE A PORTION OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE CHALLENGE MAY BE THAT AS THE SFC RIDGE ARRIVES OVERHEAD THE MIXING AND EROSION OF THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE MINIMIZED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. IT DOES STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CLOUDS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS SHOULD EASILY RADIATE INTO THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 307 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LONGWAVE PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF TUE...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE SHORT LIVED AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS THE SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY MIDDAY TUE. AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW A STEADY FEED OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AS TEMPS QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA UNTIL CLOSER TO LATE TUE MORNING...BUT THE MOIST ADVECTION WING ARRIVES LATE TUE MORNING AND SHOULD SEE STEADY MOISTENING WITH PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWFA BY TUE AFTN. TUE NGT A COUPLE WEAK SFC FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN PHASE WITH THE STRONGER 500MB VORT MAX. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A MODEST LLVL NOCTURNAL JET...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TUE NGT THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD HEADING INTO WED MORNING. HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT COULD SEE GENERALLY THE MID 40S AS WE APPROACH TUE NGT. WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN IL...A FEW BRIEF STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. SO HAVE ADJUSTED QPF IN THE TUE NGT/WED MORNING PERIOD TO BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES OF RAIN. HEADING INTO MID WEEK OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC/NORTHERN IL WED MIDDAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO ARRIVE WED AFTN AND BRING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA WED NGT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL LIKELY PUSH WED HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS ELUDED TO BEHIND THE FRONT...FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK INTO A NORTHWEST PATTERN WITH RIDGING BECOMING AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WED NGT INTO THUR. BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE WED WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ARRIVE THUR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 40S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE THEME OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRI. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WHICH COULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z TAFS: - LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY REDUCTION - GUSTY NE WINDS - MVFR CIGS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING ORD AND MDW. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AND ANYTHING LESS THAN 5-6SM WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND UNDER AND MORE INTENSE ECHOES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSIENT AND LESS 5-10 MINUTES AT A TIME AT MOST. THIS WOULD ALSO LARGELY BE EXPECTED EAST OF ORD. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AND SHOULD TREND TOWARD LOWER END VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SUSTAINED 12-14 KT WINDS BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. A LEADING BAND OF WEAKENING RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT A LINE FROM RFD TO ORD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. KMD && .MARINE... 254 AM CDT NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR WINDS TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW...RAMPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE LOW CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL DROP JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1249 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Breezy and unseasonably cool conditions prevail across central Illinois this morning. A large area of low clouds associated with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes has been sinking slowly southward across north-central Illinois over the past few hours. The southern edge of the cloud deck has been eroding since the sun has risen...and am expecting this trend to continue throughout the day. HRRR has consistently been pushing the clouds further south than they actually are, so will trim back its forecast based on latest satellite loops/obs. End result will be a mostly cloudy day along and north of a Lacon...to Champaign...to Paris line. Further south and west, mostly sunny skies will be the rule. Brisk northerly winds gusting to between 20 and 25 mph will keep temperatures several degree below normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will range from the lower to middle 40s along/north of I-74...to around 60 degrees far SE near Lawrenceville. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A band of light showers will continue to move southeast through the area early this morning, but should have dissipated or have moved out of the area by 8am. So, to account for the current scattered showers, will have pre-first period in upcoming forecast. These light showers are associated with a cold front that is moving through the area which will cause all winds to go from southwest to northerly. There will be some wind gusts, but only looking at 20 to 25 mph, even with the FROPA. Once the front/pcpn passes, conditions will be dry the rest of the day. Clouds associated with the front will move out, but lower clouds appear to be moving down from the north. HRRR has the lower clouds getting into northern parts of the CWA, but then not really into the rest of the CWA. NAM-WRF does have higher RH getting into the area today and into this afternoon, and this looks little more reasonable of a forecast. So, took a compromise between the two models and have some clouds, with most being in the east. Temps will be below normal again with mid 40s along I-74 to the mid 50s in the southeast. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Colder air mass in place overnight behind the frontal boundary for Central Illinois. Temperature drop further aided by light winds under the narrow ridge axis in concert with eroding cloud cover. Resulting overnight lows in the upper 20s, with a freeze warning in effect yet again, as some tender and new vegetation has already started. Breezy southerly winds kick back in on Tuesday in advance of the next wave bringing the threat of precip for Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A bit of a question mark for the threat of thunder on Wednesday, but with the frontal boundary passing through with the rainfall...at least keeping a scattered mention in there for now, regardless of the borderline lapse rates. If the more developed sfc low in the GFS materializes, the low center will be just to the north and close enough for a thunder mention as well...at least until the afternoon/evening hours. Models have become rather consistent with another wave quick on the heels of the Wed system for Thursday. Placement within the northwesterly flow is a little diffuse at this point, and the blends are still coming in with low chance solutions. If this persists...will likely see the pops for Thursday climb a bit. Wed night will be a transition...with a potential for a couple of breaks, before another round of precip on Thursday. So far, the northwesterly flow established for the end of the week has a series of smaller waves keeping the forecast wet until Fri night/Saturday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region for the first portion of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Low clouds are spreading slowly southward early this afternoon, although the southern periphery of the cloud cover continues to erode. Based on satellite loops and HRRR forecasts, it appears ceilings will be likely at the I-74 terminals...while partly to mostly clear skies persist further south at KSPI and KDEC. Thickest/lowest clouds are generally from KBMI to KCMI, where MVFR ceilings will occur for the next couple of hours before rising to VFR by mid to late afternoon. Diurnal nature of cloud cover is evident on satellite, so am expecting rapid dissipation toward sunset. Winds will be northerly at 10 to 15kt with gusts to around 20kt through the afternoon. As high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, winds will veer to the E/NE and decrease to less than 10kt tonight, then will continue to veer to the E/SE by Tuesday morning. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ040>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 BASED ON THE CURRENT PRECIP COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR RUNS /WHICH HAD GOOD INITIATION/ UPDATED POPS A BIT TO BETTER PINPOINT MOVEMENT OF RAIN LINE ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...STILL LOOKING AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF COVERAGE. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER MAIN UPDATE FOR FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. WAA AND SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE PROMOTED WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SURPASSING MANY OF THE FORECASTED HIGHS. AS SUCH...INCREASED TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO RERAN THE DIURNAL CURVE TO BETTER REFLECT THE INCOMING LINE OF RAIN AND AFTERNOON COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A NEW SET OF FORECAST ZONES WAS SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AS WELL AS TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING. ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. MIXING WAS ENOUGH TO BRING MOST LOCATIONS UP FROM SOME MID 30 OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAINTAINED THOSE COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES HAVE STABILIZED AND/OR BEGUN TO RISE AGAIN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW OF THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS DUE TO VIRGA ACROSS OUR NORTH. SFC OBS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INVADE THE COAL FIELDS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. H850 TEMPS FROM -6 TO -10 C WILL SETTLE IN OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT WE MAY SEE A BIT MORE LINGERING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S VERSUS THE MID 20S WE SAW IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERAL HOURS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. LEFT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE WARNING THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION...WITH A BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE TO DRAW FROM SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COLDER RIVER VALLEY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND BE THROUGH OUR AREA BY SOME TIME THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...SO STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOW TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE NAM IS SHOWING ENOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ITS FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THUNDER BUT FEEL THE INSTABILITY IS OVERDONE AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW PER A MORE REASONABLE GFS SOLUTION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 ...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT... A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEVELOPING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING UP A DANGEROUS FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...PUTTING FRUIT TREES AND SENSITIVE PLANTS IN DANGER. THE PERIOD WILL START AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LACKING ANY INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. IN FACT...DRY AIR (MUCH LIKE EVERY SYSTEM IN THE PAST MONTH) MAY EAT AWAY AT PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND WE MAY NOT END UP WITH AS MUCH QPF AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. REGARDLESS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MEASURABLE RAIN FOR ALL AREAS. BRIEF SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS SPRING. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PEGGED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10C BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND AIR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S...ON PURE COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD AND CENTER ITSELF OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY MORNING...SETTING UP AN EVEN COLDER MORNING AS SOME AREAS COULD SNEAK INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS HOLD IN. A WARM UP IS ON TAB FOR SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE TO 70 BY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AGAIN. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS. WARM GROUND SHOULD LIMIT ANY IMPACTS. SNOW CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS EASTERN KY. A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS TRAVERSING EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...SO CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH RAINS LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIS IMPACTS EITHER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A MVFR CLOUD DECK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNTIL ENOUGH DRY AIR IS ABLE TO PULL IN AND SCT OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS. SCT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. W WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING WNW AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING. LESSER PRESSURE GRADIENTS TUESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
206 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 BASED ON THE CURRENT PRECIP COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR RUNS /WHICH HAD GOOD INITIATION/ UPDATED POPS A BIT TO BETTER PINPOINT MOVEMENT OF RAIN LINE ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...STILL LOOKING AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF COVERAGE. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER MAIN UPDATE FOR FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. WAA AND SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE PROMOTED WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SURPASSING MANY OF THE FORECASTED HIGHS. AS SUCH...INCREASED TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO RERAN THE DIURNAL CURVE TO BETTER REFLECT THE INCOMING LINE OF RAIN AND AFTERNOON COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A NEW SET OF FORECAST ZONES WAS SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AS WELL AS TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING. ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. MIXING WAS ENOUGH TO BRING MOST LOCATIONS UP FROM SOME MID 30 OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAINTAINED THOSE COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES HAVE STABILIZED AND/OR BEGUN TO RISE AGAIN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW OF THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS DUE TO VIRGA ACROSS OUR NORTH. SFC OBS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INVADE THE COAL FIELDS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. H850 TEMPS FROM -6 TO -10 C WILL SETTLE IN OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT WE MAY SEE A BIT MORE LINGERING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S VERSUS THE MID 20S WE SAW IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERAL HOURS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. LEFT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE WARNING THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION...WITH A BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE TO DRAW FROM SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COLDER RIVER VALLEY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND BE THROUGH OUR AREA BY SOME TIME THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...SO STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOW TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE NAM IS SHOWING ENOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ITS FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THUNDER BUT FEEL THE INSTABILITY IS OVERDONE AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW PER A MORE REASONABLE GFS SOLUTION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OR TWO OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIAN REGION. INITIALLY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOME FROST AND OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ANTICIPATED PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL THEN RULE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON FRI EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THIS TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FRI EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS OF 2000 FEET AND ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. IF THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF CONSENSUS WERE TO VERIFY...SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MIGHT ALSO OCCUR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. THERE CONTINUES TO SOME VARIABILITY AMONGST THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES...AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE SO HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO COOL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL AND ALSO TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE MOST RECENT MEX AND ECE MOS NUMBERS. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RECOVER THIS WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND IN MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS THE COLDEST NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERALL...WITH LOWS LIKELY DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. EVEN WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE...THERE SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ALLOW FOR THESE READINGS AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL AROUND -10C OR COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ON SAT NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS EASTERN KY. A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS TRAVERSING EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...SO CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH RAINS LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIS IMPACTS EITHER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A MVFR CLOUD DECK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNTIL ENOUGH DRY AIR IS ABLE TO PULL IN AND SCT OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS. SCT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. W WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING AND BECOMING WNW AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING. LESSER PRESSURE GRADIENTS TUESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 BASED ON THE CURRENT PRECIP COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR RUNS /WHICH HAD GOOD INITIATION/ UPDATED POPS A BIT TO BETTER PINPOINT MOVEMENT OF RAIN LINE ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...STILL LOOKING AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF COVERAGE. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER MAIN UPDATE FOR FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. WAA AND SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE PROMOTED WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SURPASSING MANY OF THE FORECASTED HIGHS. AS SUCH...INCREASED TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO RERAN THE DIURNAL CURVE TO BETTER REFLECT THE INCOMING LINE OF RAIN AND AFTERNOON COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A NEW SET OF FORECAST ZONES WAS SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AS WELL AS TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING. ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. MIXING WAS ENOUGH TO BRING MOST LOCATIONS UP FROM SOME MID 30 OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAINTAINED THOSE COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES HAVE STABILIZED AND/OR BEGUN TO RISE AGAIN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW OF THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS DUE TO VIRGA ACROSS OUR NORTH. SFC OBS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INVADE THE COAL FIELDS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. H850 TEMPS FROM -6 TO -10 C WILL SETTLE IN OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT WE MAY SEE A BIT MORE LINGERING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S VERSUS THE MID 20S WE SAW IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERAL HOURS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. LEFT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE WARNING THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION...WITH A BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE TO DRAW FROM SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COLDER RIVER VALLEY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE TODAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND BE THROUGH OUR AREA BY SOME TIME THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...SO STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOW TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. THE NAM IS SHOWING ENOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ITS FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THUNDER BUT FEEL THE INSTABILITY IS OVERDONE AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW PER A MORE REASONABLE GFS SOLUTION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OR TWO OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIAN REGION. INITIALLY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOME FROST AND OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ANTICIPATED PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL THEN RULE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON FRI EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THIS TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FRI EVENING OR FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS OF 2000 FEET AND ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. IF THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF CONSENSUS WERE TO VERIFY...SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MIGHT ALSO OCCUR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. THERE CONTINUES TO SOME VARIABILITY AMONGST THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES...AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE SO HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO COOL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL AND ALSO TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE MOST RECENT MEX AND ECE MOS NUMBERS. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RECOVER THIS WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND IN MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS THE COLDEST NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERALL...WITH LOWS LIKELY DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. EVEN WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE...THERE SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ALLOW FOR THESE READINGS AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL AROUND -10C OR COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ON SAT NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 JKL VAD WIND PROFILE IS STILL SHOWING A DECENT LLJ WITH 35 TO 45 KTS ONLY 1500 TO 2000 FT ABOVE THE SFC. KEPT SOME LLWS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF...UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS FOR A MORE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME OF OUR MORE NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IT APPEARS CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. HOWEVER...CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR THRESHOLDS BEHIND THE FRONT. USING A COMPARISON/BLEND OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS WITH SUCH LOW PROBABILITY DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND BECOME MORE GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO VEER OUT OF THE WEST... SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A WEAK SHRTWV PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS...AND THE COMBINATION OF SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME MOISTENING OFF LK SUP OF VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 12Z YPL RAOB /PWAT 0.06 INCH/...AND DAYTIME HEATING UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CLDS SOME ISOLD INSTABILITY SN SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE THE MOISTENING OFF THE LK IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE LLVL NNE FLOW TO THE SE OF HI PRES OVER MANITOBA. AS IS COMMON IN THE SPRING WITH INCRSG SUN ANGLE THAT AMPLIFIES DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND...SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR OVER AND NEAR LK SUP. WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -15C AND THE INSTABILITY SC...TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE WELL BLO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 20S. BUT SKIES ARE MOCLR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP OVER NW ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE DRIER AIR. MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG WERE BLO ZERO AT MANY PLACES IN NW ONTARIO AND AS LO AS -20F CLOSER TO THE HI CENTER. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE PAC NW CAUSED 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M IN THAT AREA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON CLD/POPS TRENDS LATE THIS AFTN...MIN TEMPS TNGT AND THEN POPS LATE ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE PAC NW. LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVNG WITH LOWERING SUN ANGLE. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV AND THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/MORE ACYC FLOW AS WELL AS VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD BRING CLRG THIS EVNG. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...MAINTAINED FCST MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. RETURN SLY FLOW OVERNT OVER THE FAR W ON THE WRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES MAY LIMIT THE TEMP FALL IN THAT AREA A BIT. TUE...ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OFF MOSUNNY...EXPECT INCRSG CLDS DOWNSTREAM OF AREA OF DVLPG WAA UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BTWN HI PRES MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY CU/SC DVLPG OVER ESPECIALLY THE E HALF WITH SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING SLY FLOW OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING AREA OF LOWER H85 TEMPS NEAR -12C AT NEWBERRY AT 18Z. BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PCPN WL ARRIVE OVER THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER TIMING GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACCENTUATED BY DOWNSLOPE S WIND OVER THE W. SINCE AFTN TEMPS WL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 30S/LO 40S OVER THE W WITH DOWNSLOPE SLY FLOW...THE PTYPE WL BE SN MIXED WITH RA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 ATTENTION IS LARGELY ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC- 850MB LOW MOVES S OF THE AREA. WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE FAR W AND SCENTRAL) TO MOVE IN LATE TUE...THEN SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN FAR SCENTRAL) IS FORCED PRIMARILY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE LOW WED MORNING INTO WED AFTERNOON...WITH UPSLOPE FORCING/PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO WED NIGHT. LOOKING FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL EARLY WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED MORNING. OVERALL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF WET...HEAVY SNOW. HAVE STORM TOTAL OF 3-5 INCHES OVER ALL BUT NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS TO AROUND 6 INCHES. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY AS EVEN THE 6 INCH AMOUNTS FALL OVER LONGER THAN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THE HEADLINES. LIGHT N-NE WIND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SKIRTS THE FAR WRN CWA. AN UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH THE REGION FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF LES WITH IT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18C...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAST TO BRING THE COLDER AIR IN. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT WIND DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CHANGE WHERE THE LES FOCUSES. SHOULD SEE RAMPED UP LES THU NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. ALSO SHOULD SEE SOME AREA WIDE SNOWFALL...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE STRENGTH AND TRACK. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND AT LEAST TEMPO VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT SAW TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...S WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTEM DIVING TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE LO MOVES TO THE E OVER LOWER MI ON WED... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE AND REMAIN AS HI AS 25 TO 30 KTS. N WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL ON THU INTO SAT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PERS BUILDING TOWARD NW ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
332 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A WEAK SHRTWV PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS...AND THE COMBINATION OF SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME MOISTENING OFF LK SUP OF VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 12Z YPL RAOB /PWAT 0.06 INCH/...AND DAYTIME HEATING UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CLDS SOME ISOLD INSTABILITY SN SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE THE MOISTENING OFF THE LK IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE LLVL NNE FLOW TO THE SE OF HI PRES OVER MANITOBA. AS IS COMMON IN THE SPRING WITH INCRSG SUN ANGLE THAT AMPLIFIES DESTABILIZATION OVER THE LAND...SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR OVER AND NEAR LK SUP. WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -15C AND THE INSTABILITY SC...TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE WELL BLO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 20S. BUT SKIES ARE MOCLR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP OVER NW ONTARIO CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE DRIER AIR. MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG WERE BLO ZERO AT MANY PLACES IN NW ONTARIO AND AS LO AS -20F CLOSER TO THE HI CENTER. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE PAC NW CAUSED 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M IN THAT AREA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE ON CLD/POPS TRENDS LATE THIS AFTN...MIN TEMPS TNGT AND THEN POPS LATE ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE PAC NW. LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CWA TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVNG WITH LOWERING SUN ANGLE. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV AND THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/MORE ACYC FLOW AS WELL AS VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD BRING CLRG THIS EVNG. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...MAINTAINED FCST MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. RETURN SLY FLOW OVERNT OVER THE FAR W ON THE WRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES MAY LIMIT THE TEMP FALL IN THAT AREA A BIT. TUE...ALTHOUGH THE DAY WL START OFF MOSUNNY...EXPECT INCRSG CLDS DOWNSTREAM OF AREA OF DVLPG WAA UNDER STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BTWN HI PRES MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY CU/SC DVLPG OVER ESPECIALLY THE E HALF WITH SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING SLY FLOW OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING AREA OF LOWER H85 TEMPS NEAR -12C AT NEWBERRY AT 18Z. BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PCPN WL ARRIVE OVER THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z...WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER TIMING GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ACCENTUATED BY DOWNSLOPE S WIND OVER THE W. SINCE AFTN TEMPS WL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 30S/LO 40S OVER THE W WITH DOWNSLOPE SLY FLOW...THE PTYPE WL BE SN MIXED WITH RA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 AN ACTIVE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS...OWING TO THE RATHER DRY MID- LEVELS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE PRECIP. THE SET-UP SUGGESTS A RATHER RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE PRECIP RATES ONCE THE DRY LAYER IS OVERCOME. PRECIP LOOKS TO REACH THE FAR WEST CWA AROUND 21Z TUE...A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE AROUND 00Z WED...AND NEWBERRY AROUND 03Z WED. A BROAD AREA OF 2-4 INCHES OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIXING WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN ISOTHERMAL AT OR VERY NEAR 0C. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MESSY TRAVEL WED MORNING...WINTER WX ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE CENTRAL CWA. PRECIP CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WED AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE CWA. AGAIN...PRECIP WILL TRY TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL...BUT WET BULB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C AS EVEN THE 925 TO 850 HPA LOWS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BROAD LIFT COMBINED WITH THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM SUPPORT OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S AND INCREASING INSOLATION FROM THE EARLY APRIL SUN...EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING EVEN AS ADDITIONAL SNOW FALLS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TEMPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING SE FROM WESTERN CANADA MAY BRUSH THE FAR WEST CWA WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. FRIDAY...COLDER AIR DRAWN IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF LES FOR THE NORTH-WIND SNOW BELTS AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -15 TO -17C. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT SHALLOW BUT HIGH SLR LES SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST SATURDAY AS WELL AS TODAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE LOW 20S NORTH AND THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH A SHARPER RIDGE NOTED BY THE ECMWF...CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKER RIDGE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT BRINGS LIGHT WAA PRECIP TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 EXPECT LINGERING SN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND AT LEAST TEMPO VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT SAW TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...S WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTEM DIVING TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE LO MOVES TO THE E OVER LOWER MI ON WED... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE AND REMAIN AS HI AS 25 TO 30 KTS. N WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL ON THU INTO SAT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HI PERS BUILDING TOWARD NW ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 339 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Focus tonight remains temps and the expansion of the Freeze Warning. The sky will remain largely cloud free tonight with winds becoming light across the region as the ridge builds into the area. With a fairly good radiational cooling setup, have temps aob the coolest guidance. Because of this, have expanded the Freeze Warning into west central IL and further S into srn IL. The warning may need to be expanded further SW, but confidence is not high enuf to do so attm. Cooler pockets may manifest themselves overnight, especially across the ern Ozarks. Areas further W into central MO shud stay warmer as winds shud remain a little higher across this area. Any precip associated with the approaching wrmfnt is expected to remain N and NW of the CWA tonight. Tilly .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Ridge over the eastern Seaboard on Tuesday combined with deepening low pressure over the Great Plains will turn the wind to the south- southeast. Forecast soundings show mixing up to around 900mb...so some gusty winds are likely in the afternoon though not as strong as what we`ve seen in the past few days. GFS is showing some sunrise surprise showers on the nose of the LLJ on in the strongest baroclinicity at 850mb Tuesday morning, but the rest of the models do not move any of this precip into our CWFA so have kept Tuesday morning dry. Increasing clouds should hamper the diurnal warm up somewhat, and south-southeast flow isn`t exactly a hot wind for us especially with the bulk of a cool surface high to our east. Going forecast looks very reasonable so I only made cosmetic changes. Little change to the remainder of the forecast. Models are in good agreement with the high amplitude pattern developing over the CONUS. Should see rain and thunderstorms develop Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region...then persistent northwest flow aloft will keep us relatively cloudy and cool into Saturday. Temperatures will be at or a few degrees below normal through Saturday. Still looks like the pattern is going to try to break Sunday or Monday. With the flow becoming more zonal, we should warm up again with temperatures creeping back up above normal and an increasing chance of rain. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Nly winds will continue today under a mostly clear sky. Sct to perhaps briefly bkn cu is expected to form with bases around 4 kft which shud only impact KUIN this afternoon. Winds will become light tonight and veer to eventually become sely by Tues morning. A mid cloud deck will also advect into the region Tues morning. The bulk of the measurable precip is expected to remain N of all terminals, but precip may need to be added to KUIN in future updates. Tilly && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 34 58 51 63 / 0 5 40 70 Quincy 30 55 48 60 / 5 10 60 50 Columbia 37 62 52 62 / 0 10 70 30 Jefferson City 38 64 53 63 / 0 10 60 30 Salem 30 54 48 62 / 0 5 20 80 Farmington 33 58 48 63 / 0 5 20 60 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL- Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 Fairly quiet wx pattern across the central U.S. this afternoon as broad scale upper ridging continues to approach in advance of a trough now working through the Pacific Northwest. While this feature will be our next weather maker of interest...we should still be able to squeeze one more dry...or mostly dry day out before main cold front slides through the region during Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Before then...a strong low-level jet in advance of this feature will allow for modest return flow trough the afternoon hours on Tuesday with fcst guidance supporting a return of upper 40/low 50 degree dewpoints by 00z Wednesday. This will set the stage for developing convection across the Central Plains along/ahead of southeastward moving cold front Tuesday afternoon. Fcst models appear to be in good agreement that upstream convection will slide southeast into northwest Missouri near/slightly after the 00z time frame...before traversing the remainder of the CWA during the overnight hrs. Quick look at fcst soundings from north-central Missouri indicates that the airmass proceeding the front will remain capped through a good part of the day...with frontal convergence and increasing height falls finally allowing enough forcing to break/erode the cap by early evening. In terms of severe wx impacts...cannot rule out an isolated strong storm to two across the the far northwest...but overall confidence remains marginal at best as the late day arrival of return flow moisture along with the cap should keep instability generation largely in check. For any storms that do become strong...an isolated large hail or strong wind gust will be possible. Convection to largely be east of the fcst area by 12z Wednesday morning with fast northwest flow aloft prevailing in its wake. Cannot rule out a few stray rain showers across the far northeast on Wednesday...and have maintained slight chance and low-end chance mention for now. Another weak wave to slide south across the region on Thursday which may lead to some additional light shwr activity across the far northeast...but overall impacts should be minimal as better forcing remains east of the area. Beyond this...a dry late week should lead to an uptick in precipitation chances come Sunday as another cold front descends upon the region. As it looks right now...feature looks to be a slow mover as front stalls over the lower Missouri Vly which should result in continued shwr/storm chances through early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Northerly winds this afternoon will continue to veer to the southeast overnight before strengthening after 14z tomorrow. Any precipitation associated with Tuesday evening`s cold front will hold off until off until after the valid time of the current forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...32
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 Fairly quiet wx pattern across the central U.S. this afternoon as broad scale upper ridging continues to approach in advance of a trough now working through the Pacific Northwest. While this feature will be our next weather maker of interest...we should still be able to squeeze one more dry...or mostly dry day out before main cold front slides through the region during Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Before then...a strong low-level jet in advance of this feature will allow for modest return flow trough the afternoon hours on Tuesday with fcst guidance supporting a return of upper 40/low 50 degree dewpoints by 00z Wednesday. This will set the stage for developing convection across the Central Plains along/ahead of southeastward moving cold front Tuesday afternoon. Fcst models appear to be in good agreement that upstream convection will slide southeast into northwest Missouri near/slightly after the 00z time frame...before traversing the remainder of the CWA during the overnight hrs. Quick look at fcst soundings from north-central Missouri indicates that the airmass proceeding the front will remain capped through a good part of the day...with frontal convergence and increasing height falls finally allowing enough forcing to break/erode the cap by early evening. In terms of severe wx impacts...cannot rule out an isolated strong storm to two across the the far northwest...but overall confidence remains marginal at best as the late day arrival of return flow moisture along with the cap should keep instability generation largely in check. For any storms that do become strong...an isolated large hail or strong wind gust will be possible. Convection to largely be east of the fcst area by 12z Wednesday morning with fast northwest flow aloft prevailing in its wake. Cannot rule out a few stray rain showers across the far northeast on Wednesday...and have maintained slight chance and low-end chance mention for now. Another weak wave to slide south across the region on Thursday which may lead to some additional light shwr activity across the far northeast...but overall impacts should be minimal as better forcing remains east of the area. Beyond this...a dry late week should lead to an uptick in precipitation chances come Sunday as another cold front descends upon the region. As it looks right now...feature looks to be a slow mover as front stalls over the lower Missouri Vly which should result in continued shwr/storm chances through early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Northerly winds this afternoon will continue to veer to the southeast overnight before strengthening after 14z tomorrow. Any precipitation associated with Tuesday evening`s cold front will hold off until off until after the valid time of the current forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...32
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 215 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A dry cold front had pushed through the area as of early afternoon. Clear skies prevailed as moisture is lacking across most of the central/southern US. While temperatures had warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooler air was begnning to filter in from the north. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon into the early evening as gusty north winds and low RH continue behind the front. Quiet/dry weather conditions are expected overnight and during the day Tuesday as a shortwave trough to our northeast moves by and heights begin to rise briefly ahead of a developing shortwave over the northern Rockies. There will be about a 10 to 15 degree difference in temps from west to east across the area Tuesday with middle 70s out west due to a quicker return of southerly winds and highs barely reaching 60 out east. Winds will also begin to increase as the day goes on with an increasing pressure gradient across the area. Highest wind gusts will be across the western half of the CWA. An elevated fire weather risk will also continue Tuesday across the western Missouri/SE Kansas with the increasing wind and low RH. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 The Northern Rockies shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will move southeast toward the area Tuesday evening. Models have trended less and less with precip amounts with this system. Main reason is lack of moisture. Moisture across the Gulf of Mexico is sparse and only upper 40s dewpoints will arrive ahead of this system. A strong elevated mixed layer/capping inversion will be present across the area throughout the evening therefore it will take forcing along the frontal boundary to get precipitation. An area of showers and thunderstorms looks to develop across Eastern Kansas and Northwest Missouri Tuesday night and track into the area during the overnight hours Wednesday Morning. Instability drops off dramatically overnight with MU capes on the order of 50-100 j/kg therefore thunderstorms are not expected to be severe. Northwest flow will continue Wednesday through Saturday. This means dry and seasonable weather through the rest of the week. Fire Danger will likely remain elevated as afternoon low RHs and west-northwest winds will persist on a daily basis. A reinforcing shot of cool air will move through on Friday with low temperatures Saturday morning near freezing, especially across the northeast half of the area. Trends will be monitored for frost potential during this period. GFS and EURO models suggest a system will push out of the Desert SW on Sunday. This combined with a shortwave over Southern Canada will help to break down the northwest flow and give us our next chance of precipitation and warmer temperatures Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to continue. A ridge of sfc high pressure extending from the western Great Lakes to the Ozarks will move south while low pressure moves into the western Plains. Winds will gradually veer to the east then southeast after 00z then strengthen after 12z as the pressure gradient tightens up over the area. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1246 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A very mild early morning is underway at this hour, with 2 AM temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, with persistent southwest breezes. Temperatures are expected to fall to around 50 by daybreak. A weak cold front will drop south through the forecast area this morning, turning winds to the north. Highs today will be somewhat cooler than yesterday, though still mild by early April standards. Readings should range from the mid to upper 60s north of I-44, to the low 70s across far southern Missouri. Dewpoints should mix down into the low 30s behind the front, yielding afternoon RH in the 25-30 percent range. Winds will be lighter today compared to yesterday, but the low RH will still result in elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Surface high pressure will drop south through the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s west to mid 30s east. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Shortwave ridging will build in Tuesday, along with a return to the gusty south to southwest winds, especially over the western half or so of the forecast area. There will be quite the gradient in temperatures on Tuesday, with highs over southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri reaching the mid 70s. Over the eastern Ozarks, readings will only be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. A cold front will move south toward the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing with it the next chance for rain. QPF trends have been downward over the last 48 hours or so, and the 00Z suite of model guidance is no exception. A lack of quality moisture looks to result in only a tenth to perhaps a quarter of an inch of rain through Wednesday afternoon. Right now, it still looks like most of the area will see some precipitation, though if trends continue, it`s not beyond the realm of possibility that some areas could miss out. In addition, have backed off to just a mention of slight chances for thunder; given the poor moisture quality/lack of instability, even that may be optimistic at this point. Wednesday`s system will serve to reinforce the overall northwest flow pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS, and this should continue into the weekend. A few frontal passages are expected between Wednesday and the start of the weekend, though they should largely remain dry. Steady north to northwest winds through the period and low dewpoints will yield elevated fire weather conditions on a daily basis. Toward the tail end of the 7 day forecast, it is worth noting that there continues to be general agreement in a shot of colder air sometime in the Friday-Sunday time frame. Given the pattern in place, it is possible that temps could fall low enough during this time to again pose a threat for a frost or hard freeze. This will be something to keep an eye on through the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to continue. A ridge of sfc high pressure extending from the western Great Lakes to the Ozarks will move south while low pressure moves into the western Plains. Winds will gradually veer to the east then southeast after 00z then strengthen after 12z as the pressure gradient tightens up over the area. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1246 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 A very mild early morning is underway at this hour, with 2 AM temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, with persistent southwest breezes. Temperatures are expected to fall to around 50 by daybreak. A weak cold front will drop south through the forecast area this morning, turning winds to the north. Highs today will be somewhat cooler than yesterday, though still mild by early April standards. Readings should range from the mid to upper 60s north of I-44, to the low 70s across far southern Missouri. Dewpoints should mix down into the low 30s behind the front, yielding afternoon RH in the 25-30 percent range. Winds will be lighter today compared to yesterday, but the low RH will still result in elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Surface high pressure will drop south through the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s west to mid 30s east. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Shortwave ridging will build in Tuesday, along with a return to the gusty south to southwest winds, especially over the western half or so of the forecast area. There will be quite the gradient in temperatures on Tuesday, with highs over southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri reaching the mid 70s. Over the eastern Ozarks, readings will only be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. A cold front will move south toward the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing with it the next chance for rain. QPF trends have been downward over the last 48 hours or so, and the 00Z suite of model guidance is no exception. A lack of quality moisture looks to result in only a tenth to perhaps a quarter of an inch of rain through Wednesday afternoon. Right now, it still looks like most of the area will see some precipitation, though if trends continue, it`s not beyond the realm of possibility that some areas could miss out. In addition, have backed off to just a mention of slight chances for thunder; given the poor moisture quality/lack of instability, even that may be optimistic at this point. Wednesday`s system will serve to reinforce the overall northwest flow pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS, and this should continue into the weekend. A few frontal passages are expected between Wednesday and the start of the weekend, though they should largely remain dry. Steady north to northwest winds through the period and low dewpoints will yield elevated fire weather conditions on a daily basis. Toward the tail end of the 7 day forecast, it is worth noting that there continues to be general agreement in a shot of colder air sometime in the Friday-Sunday time frame. Given the pattern in place, it is possible that temps could fall low enough during this time to again pose a threat for a frost or hard freeze. This will be something to keep an eye on through the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to continue. A ridge of sfc high pressure extending from the western Great Lakes to the Ozarks will move south while low pressure moves into the western Plains. Winds will gradually veer to the east then southeast after 00z then strengthen after 12z as the pressure gradient tightens up over the area. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1240 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Cold front is currently moving through northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Radar is showing most of the mid-level returns staying back over northern Missouri and southern Illinois with very few surface reports. This is because the low levels are very dry per the latest RAP soundings. Upper trough supplying the ascent for the precipitation will move quickly east early this morning causing these returns to dissipate by 12Z which is depicted well by the experimental HRRR. So still expect today to be mainly dry with skies turning mainly sunny by this afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler today with northerly winds advecting cooler air into the area. Highs will be below normal today. Britt .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Will be going with a freeze warning late tonight over south central Illinois. The front will move well south of the area tonight. A surface ridge will also move southeast across the area with its axis oriented across south central Illinois into southeast Missouri by late tonight. There will be some high clouds beginning to spill in ahead of the next system, but think that south central Illinois will still stay mostly clear all night allowing for strong radiational cooling. With dewpoints staying in the mid-upper 20s, expect this area to have overnight lows falling to around 30, so will go with a freeze warning. Otherwise it still looks like a weak system will pass just north of the area on Tuesday bringing some isolated showers to northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Otherwise the better chance of rain will wait until Tuesday night and Wednesday when an impressive upper trough will drop southeastward out of Dakotas bringing likely PoPs with a chance of thunderstorms. The showers will linger into Thursday and Friday as an additional shortwave trough moves through the area in the northwesterly flow aloft that sets up behind Wednesday`s trough. The first half of the weekend does look dry at this point before scattered showers develop by Sunday as both the GFS and ECMWF are showing return flow off the Gulf. Temperatures will be below normal late week before warming up by next Sunday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2016 Nly winds will continue today under a mostly clear sky. Sct to perhaps briefly bkn cu is expected to form with bases around 4 kft which shud only impact KUIN this afternoon. Winds will become light tonight and veer to eventually become sely by Tues morning. A mid cloud deck will also advect into the region Tues morning. The bulk of the measurable precip is expected to remain N of all terminals, but precip may need to be added to KUIN in future updates. Tilly && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Bond IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 THE RAP MODEL WHICH WORKED THE BEST SUNDAY IS FORECASTING VERY LITTLE COOLING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15C- 20C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS. THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE RAP IS SILENT IN THIS REGARD. WINDS ALOFT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT AND K INDICES IN THE NAM ARE IN THE 30S. THUS THERE MIGHT BE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THE ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS. TONIGHT...DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE CNTL SD. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A 55KT LOW LEVEL JET AIMED AT NCNTL NEB SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN CHANCES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A STRONG PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AND FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS REGION. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PV MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM BEING PACIFIC IN ORIGIN BRINGS SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN CHANCES ARE LACKING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN CONFINE THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS FROM NW NEBRASKA SUGGEST RAPID WET BULB COOLING FOR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. IF RAIN IS REALIZED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SIGNIFICANT DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...SPRINKLES MAY BE ALL THAT IS NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER...WHICH WOULD BE AN ISSUE FOR RANGE FIRE STARTS. TUESDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT RFW CRITERIA RH WILL BE MET AND THE AMOUNT OF FUEL SHADING OWING TO HIGH CLOUDS IS UNCERTAIN. THE LARGE RANGE FIRE CONCERN LIES WITH 1)THE WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 2)WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. 3)THE POSSIBILITY OF MEDIOCRE RH RECOVERY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND THE FACT THAT RH MINIMUM WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL. 4)THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT WILL BE BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND FWF...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE RELATED HEADLINES. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES /NEAR AVERAGE/ ON WEDNESDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXTREMELY GUSTY AND MINIMUM RH FALLS BELOW 25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND SW NEBRASKA. FOR LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE SUGGESTED TO TREND UPWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. 70S ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. BY DAY 7 THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DAY 5 AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS FROM 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 SWRN NEB GETS 20 PERCENT RH WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR EXP AND NAM MODELS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...TAYLOR FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11 AM UPDATE...SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRES OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA WHICH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NE PA AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR ERN FA IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NRN WAYNE COUNTY IN NRN PA. HERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM. STRONG TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH MAXES IN THE NRN FA IN THE UPPER 20S WITH THE WYOMING VALLEY IN THE MID 40S. OVER NE PA RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE. PREVIOUS DISC... MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE NERN PA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE WARM AIR NWD ALONG THE SRN TIER AFTER 8 AM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 925-850MB F-GEN INDUCED BY THE STRONG WAA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS SEEMED TO LIMIT THE AMT OF SNOW. A STRONG PUSH OF DRY 700-500MB AIR FROM THE SW INTO THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIP TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE ROBUST F-GEN TO ALLOW THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO CAUSING -FZDZ IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL. THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES OFF THE RAP SHOW WELL THIS DRY LAYER ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIALLY SUPER- COOLED DROPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR -FZRA IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. AS THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THE LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS MAY NOT WARM UP QUICK ENOUGH...TRAPPING THE SUB- FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC AND ALLOWING FOR FZRA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY TO CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE EARLY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND COMBINE WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. BUT GENERALLY THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE WRN CATSKILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THIS RELIEF WILL COME WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT WED MORNING ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR MASS ADVECTS SLOWLY IN FROM THE SW. THE WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLDER WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CARVING OUT A DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW NONE OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. THE COLDEST DAY IN THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO BE SATURDAY... WITH GRADUAL MODERATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL NY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AT AVP BY AROUND 20Z. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BKN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT AROUND 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK... TUE NGT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR. LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN. FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
222 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11 AM UPDATE...SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRES OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA WHICH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NE PA AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW OVER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR ERN FA IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NRN WAYNE COUNTY IN NRN PA. HERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM. STRONG TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH MAXES IN THE NRN FA IN THE UPPER 20S WITH THE WYOMING VALLEY IN THE MID 40S. OVER NE PA RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE. PREVIOUS DISC... MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE NERN PA COUNTIES IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE WARM AIR NWD ALONG THE SRN TIER AFTER 8 AM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL NY COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AS OF 430 AM THIS MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 925-850MB F-GEN INDUCED BY THE STRONG WAA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS SEEMED TO LIMIT THE AMT OF SNOW. A STRONG PUSH OF DRY 700-500MB AIR FROM THE SW INTO THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIP TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE ROBUST F-GEN TO ALLOW THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO CAUSING -FZDZ IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL. THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES OFF THE RAP SHOW WELL THIS DRY LAYER ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIALLY SUPER- COOLED DROPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR -FZRA IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE TWIN TIERS. AS THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THE LOW LYING VALLEY AREAS MAY NOT WARM UP QUICK ENOUGH...TRAPPING THE SUB- FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC AND ALLOWING FOR FZRA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY TO CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE EARLY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM NOSE OF AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND COMBINE WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. BUT GENERALLY THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE WRN CATSKILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THIS RELIEF WILL COME WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT WED MORNING ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR MASS ADVECTS SLOWLY IN FROM THE SW. THE WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CHILLY TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL BIG PICTURE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SPREAD FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WEATHER- MAKING SYSTEMS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND THUS IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT REGARDLESS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...SOME AREAS MAY MIX BACK TO RAIN BRIEFLY...OTHERS STAY SNOW. TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO DIVE WELL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN UPPER TEENS FOR SOME LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY 30S-NEAR 40 FOR HIGHS AREAWIDE SATURDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...THE WINTER THAT WOULD NOT COME...HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BY A SPRING THAT HAS NOT SPRUNG. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS MOVING EAST OF THE CENTRAL NY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN WILL BE ENDING AT AVP BY AROUND 20Z. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BKN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT AROUND 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK... TUE NGT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...MAINLY VFR. LATE WED THROUGH THU...LIKELY RESTRICTIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN. FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS EVENING`S FORECAST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE VIRGINIAS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF HUNDRETHS OF QPF. STRONG WINDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE INITIATED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS ZONES ALONG WITH MAINLAND DARE COUNTY STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT. AS THE STRONG CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW TEMPERATURES BY MORNING FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH A BLUSTERY DAY UPCOMING WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S...RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH A SUNNY AND DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MON...SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THURSDAY. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST QUICKLY WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE/UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ONLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE AND DRY ELSEWHERE. STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS SPREADING IN BEHIND IT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH MID 30S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY AND IS OFF THE COAST MONDAY. RESULTING NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/... AS OF 145 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR SO. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT KEWN RUNWAY 14/32 AND AT KPGV RUNWAY 15/33. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND MAINLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. AT AROUND THIS TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT WILL ALSO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL AROUND 8 OR 9 AM. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT SOON AFTER AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MON...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTH WIND WEDNESDAY 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS THURSDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE WEST 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY. A FAST-MOVING TROF SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND 23 KNOTS AT DUCK. ALSO SEE WINDS INTO THE 20S ON THE SOUNDS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT ADVISORIES AS GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME NORTH WITH VERY STRONG CAA TO KICK IN AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER DURING TUESDAY WITH 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ON THE INLAND RIVERS. THE WIND/SEAS PEAK DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CURRENTLY BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-6 LATER THIS EVENING...THEN AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECT SEAS AS HIGH AS 9-12 FEET CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MON...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA...A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROF FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING RATHER TIGHT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KNOTS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WITH HIGHEST SEAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OF 7-11 FEET. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 310 PM MON...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY N/NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 ON TUESDAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .CLIMATE... RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 04/06/2016 WEDNESDAY LOCATION TEMP/YEAR NEW BERN 30/2004 (KEWN ASOS) CAPE HATTERAS 36/1975 (KHSE ASOS) GREENVILLE 28/1918 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) MOREHEAD CITY 31/2004 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) KINSTON 27/2004 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) JACKSONVILLE 25/2004 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>093-098. WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ047-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ136- 137. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...HSA/SGK MARINE...CTC/HSA FIRE WEATHER...MHX CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CDT MON APR 4 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE T OVER VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALSO MINIMIZED IN AN AREA SPANNING FROM ATASCOSA TO SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY AFTER 08Z SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRID FOR THIS PERIOD AND AREA. MORE OF THE SAME WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS A H5 CLOSED LOW PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WHILE IT LIKELY WONT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...IT WILL PUSH RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA COUPLED WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THEREFORE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FUEL ANALYSIS MAINTAINS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE SO THIS THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RED FLAG THREAT AT THIS TIME. BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND BACK TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BROAD CLOSED LOW COMING ONSHORE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GO AND THE SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY BUT DGEX DOES ADVERTISE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE DETAILS TO COME AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 83 58 79 51 / 0 0 0 10 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 81 56 78 47 / 0 0 0 10 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 82 56 79 49 / 0 0 0 10 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 82 56 78 49 / 0 0 0 - 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 86 62 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 83 57 78 48 / 0 0 0 - 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 82 58 80 47 / 0 0 0 - 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 51 80 56 78 48 / 0 0 0 10 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 81 58 78 48 / 0 0 0 10 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 81 59 79 50 / 0 0 0 10 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 83 58 80 51 / 0 0 0 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY