Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/03/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

250 PM MST FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
STRONG WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS
AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY AND RECENT MODEL RUNS
SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN SONORA BY THIS
EVENING. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER MY FORECAST
AREA...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS A RESULT...RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RIM AND EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED INTO PORTIONS OF
GREENLEE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THE CURRENT
SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL...SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN TOP POPS ELSEWHERE. BY
SUNSET THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
WITH JUST ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACTIVITY TO REMAIN AND THIS SHOULD HAPPEN EVEN EARLIER THAN
MIDNIGHT.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM DIVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT
RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA WILL POTENTIALLY
BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. MOS POP NUMBERS SHOW A 24-HR POP OF 25% FOR THE GFS THURSDAY
AND 36% FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS 3% FOR THURSDAY AND 15% FOR FRIDAY.
THAT SAID....WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE NOT BEING
VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO JUST USE A BLEND. SO...SLIGHT
CHANCES AREA-WIDE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWERS START TAPERING OFF FROM THE
SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH SATURDAY IS BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE).

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...
THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN 2
TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THEREAFTER...LOWS
7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST MORNING.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES OF 9-11K FT AGL.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 02/03Z AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN-DRIVEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS
INCREASING MOISTURE...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL CARRY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TOMORROW WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS
BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY TERRAIN-DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
OUTSIDE OF SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES ON TUESDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CARLAW

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

919 AM MST FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND
WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 01/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY AND
RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN SONORA
BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE ONE MORE DAY OF A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH JUST ISOLATED IN
NATURE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THIS
SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE POP FORECAST
FOR TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 50 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 44 DEGS. THE CURRENT TEMP
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BUT WILL MONITOR.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA PSBL EAST OF KTUS TODAY. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 10K-15K
FT MSL WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS THRU FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS NEAR DEVELOPING SHOWERS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH A FEW HIGHER WLY/NWLY
AFTERNOON GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED HUMIDITY
VALUES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH
ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 25 MPH WILL OCCUR.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM
SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SOME
RAIN.

.PREV DISCUSSION...THAT LAST RESIDUAL OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN TODAY.

A STRONG RIDGE WILL THEN PHASE IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 5 TO 7 DEGREES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

A SOUTHERN SPLIT OF ENERGY IS TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE TO RESOLVE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO EITHER UNDER-
CUT THE RIDGE OR RIDE INTO THE BACK SIDE AS IT PHASES EAST. BEST
GUESS IS THAT IT WON`T MAKE IT UNDER THE RIDGE AND THUS WILL COME IN
A LITTLE SLOWER. STAY TUNED.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1053 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ALONG A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BOTH PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
NUMEROUS SHWRS REMAIN OVER CT. EXPECT SMALL HAIL TO CONTINUE TO
OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HRRR SNOW ALGORITHMS FOR THIS
EVENT A BIT DECEIVING BASED ON THICKNESS. SNOW SHOULD NOT OCCUR
WITH WET BULB ZERO ABV 3000FT. AS A RESULT...HRRR INDICATES BASED
ON WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT THAT SNOW OCCURS ONLY ON THE WRN/NWRN
FLANK OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER CNTRL CT PER THE
HRRR AND 00Z NAM IN A BAND OF STRONG MID LVL FROGEN...BUT DID NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS YET.

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN
CT FROM NEW HAVEN AND EAST AS WELL AS SUFFOLK COUNTY NY ON LONG
ISLAND THROUGH ALL OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH HEIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTIONS BEGINNING.
THIS WILL BE COINCIDING WITH POLAR UPPER LEVEL JET PHASING WITH
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JET AS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY...THEN DEEPENING STILL AS
IT MOVES TOWARDS CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RAPID INCREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. ONE FEATURE THAT IS VERY
CONSPICUOUS IN THE POSITIVE PRESSURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE STRONG ISALLOBARIC ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS IS VERY PRONOUNCED FROM 09-12Z SUNDAY WITH THEIR 3 HOUR
POSITIVE PRESSURE TENDENCIES OF 8-11 MB IN THE NAM. THE 6 HOUR
PRESSURE TENDENCIES SHOW 6-12 MB POSITIVE TENDENCIES SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST. THE
MAGNITUDE OF POSITIVE PRESSURE TENDENCIES DECREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL
NO LONGER BE ADDING TO THE WIND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING SO
WINDS WILL REALLY JUST BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON THE MIXING DEPTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND. HOWEVER...THE MIXING DEPTH WILL
STILL BE PRETTY LARGE SO EVEN WITH A DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...GUSTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE FROM NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
BE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE INCREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS COMBINED
WITH SNOW WILL CREATE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES. EXACT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
TO ALLOW FOR MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO BE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO HOW
FAST THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BUT GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATION. AHEAD
OF THE LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG TO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE LOCAL REGION BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH THE COLDER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH WIND WARNINGS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH MAX WINDS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN THE MIXING DEPTH INCREASES AND BRINGS DOWN HIGHER WINDS WITHIN
THE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASES
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MIXING HEIGHT
WILL BE INCREASING ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO DROP OFF ONLY BY A SMALL
AMOUNT. OUT EAST ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWN
BY SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MIXING FROM THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MIXING HEIGHT LOWERS AND WITH PRESSURE TENDENCIES
GETTING CLOSER TO NEUTRAL...WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SUBSIDE. THERE
IS SOME SLIGHT RIDGING AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND INITIALLY DECREASING
CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER HAZARD IS FORECAST BY WAY OF THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO EXPERIENCE SOME GREEN UP OF VEGETATION. THIS WOULD BE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NYC AND SOUTH OF THE MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WHICH WOULD PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ....SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER NY...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK NY ON LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS
COASTAL CT. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A FREEZE WATCH FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A RE ENFORCING COLD AIRMASS. EVEN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL NO RECORDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG RIDGES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULTS IN THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF THURSDAY. ONE DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE ALONG THE
COAST. SO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AFT 5-7Z WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TO 50KT OR SO.

WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT 18Z SUN.

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS CT...SO MVFR OR LOWER THERE
BEFORE THE FROPA. ELSEWHERE...SOME IFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COASTS.

MIXED PCPN AND STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD CAUSE BRIEF
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR
NYC TERMINALS...BUT UP TO 2 INCHES AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS.
.MON...SUB-VFR WITH RAIN FOR KISP/CITY/NJ TERMINALS. MIXED PCPN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ELSEWHERE. SW G25KT AM BCMG NW PM.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW G20KT.
.WED...VFR. SW G20-25KT PM.
.THU...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. S-SW G30KT. CHC LLWS.

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN VIA LINGERING SWELLS. MARINE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RANGING MAINLY
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT. WINDS THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GALES QUICKLY ESCALATE TO STORM FORCE AFTER 06Z WHEN
STRONG POSITIVE PRESSURE TENDENCIES COME IN AS WELL AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN. STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY AND THEN FOR EASTERN WATERS UNTIL 22Z
SUNDAY. WESTERN WATERS WILL BE MORE IN THE GALE RANGE 18-22Z
SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVY LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN MON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SCA CONDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. SUB-ADVY CONDS RETURN FOR
MOST OF WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATER
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
NORTHERN WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN IN A STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
AS SNOW.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ006>008-010>012.
FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ009>012.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-350-353.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-338-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

922 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS OVER CT. EXPECT SMALL
HAIL TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HRRR SNOW
ALGORITHMS FOR THIS EVENT A BIT DECEIVING BASED ON THICKNESS.
SNOW SHOULD NOT OCCUR WITH WET BULB ZERO ABV 3000FT. AS A
RESULT...HRRR INDICATES BASED ON WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT THAT SNOW
OCCURS ONLY ON THE WRN/NWRN FLANK OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER CNTRL CT PER THE HRRR AND 18Z NAM IN A BAND OF STRONG
MID LVL FROGEN...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS YET WOULD LIKE TO
SEE AT LEAST THE 00Z NAM.

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS OVER CT AT 2330Z TRACKING SLOWLY SEWD
EXPECTED TO MISS THE CITY ARPTS ATTM.

INITIAL CDFNT ROUGHLY ALONG THE NJ BORDER SWEEPS THRU AFT 1-4Z
AND PRODUCES GUSTS AROUND 30KT. ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AFT 5-7Z WITH
WINDS RAMPING UP TO 50KT OR SO. EARLIER FROPA TIMES WRN AREAS WITH
CITY ARPTS RIGHT ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIME WINDOWS.

WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT 18Z SUN.

FOG AND STRATUS BANK INTO KJFK WITH LIFR. THIS COULD LAST TIL THE
INITIAL FROPA AROUND 3Z. KISP WITH IFR SHOULD LAST AS WELL PERHAPS
A FEW HRS LONGER. ELSEWHERE...VFR OUTSIDE OF THE LINE OF SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVER CT.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ006>008-010>012.
FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ009>012.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ005-009.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ078>081.
FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ330-340-345-350-353.
STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

147 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COLDER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH VERY WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 147 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-
NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. IT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN VT...THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ERN CATSKILLS. ONE PEA-
SIZE HAIL REPORT CAME IN FROM CHARLESTON...MONTGOMERY COUNTY.

THE LATEST RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE
FCST AREA WITH A RING OF SBCAPE/MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
MARGINAL AT 5.5-6C/KM. DESPITE THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ROGUE ISOLD SVR THREAT. BRIEF BURSTS OF
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...AND SFC DEWPTS
IN THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL START FALLING OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

HIGH TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS HAVE OCCURRED WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR VALLEY AREAS...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND
THIS FRONT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 70F ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CHANGEABLE...AND ACTIVE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...ESP
EARLY TONIGHT. MINS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING OUT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY. THIS
NEARBY WAVE MAY ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RAINFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS WELL...AND THIS FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN HOURS ON SATURDAY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS BRIEF AND FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT COULD SUGGEST SOME GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

TEMPS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 40S/50S FOR SATURDAY /WHICH IS
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY/S TEMPS/ AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER IS
HEADED OUR WAY BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 850 HPA TEMPS
WILL CRASH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND FALL TO -3 TO -9 DEGREES C BY
LATE SAT EVENING.

WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER FAST MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SFC WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SOME INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BE RAINFALL IN VALLEY AREAS DUE TO
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...THEY SHOULD COOL QUICKLY...AND A
QUICK SHOT OF STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. MOST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 03Z SREF...WOULD SUGGEST 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...DUE TO IMPRESSIVE
LIFT/INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR
ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACE DUE TO RECENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS.
MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS FEATURE...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER
AND VERY WINDY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MIXING DUE TO
VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -20 DEGREES C/ AND
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING SFC WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR A VERY WINDY DAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO STATEMENT. NW
WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 35-55 MPH POSSIBLE AS
WELL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT THE COLD TEMPS/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WINTRY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

THE WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH FOR SUN NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL
START TO RETURN AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER STORM STARTS TO HEAD
TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
BEGIN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT /TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY/...ESP FOR
WESTERN AREAS. MINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST 01/00Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE DELAWARE COASTLINE. A DIGGING
TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP STEER THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST THERMAL GRADIENT SET UP OVER OUR
AREA COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE
REGION...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE FGEN SETUP OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD RESULT IN
A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT OVER A SHORT DISTANCE. THIS 925-850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION BEING
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. RESULTS DO DIFFER IN THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL DATA OF THE EXACT SETUP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACKING LOW PRESSURE AT ITS CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...H850 AND H925 TEMPERATURES
OVERALL REMAIN WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FROM
THE SFC TO 925 HPA HOWEVER MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME
LEFT OVER SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY FROM THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH THIS LATE WINTER WEATHER
EVENT...WE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THIS EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
GOING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT ARE STILL FORECASTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELO0W AVERAGE. LATEST 01/00Z DATA SHOWS A LARGE
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP DEVELOP
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE NORTH FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO OUR REGION PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO END THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO KALB AND KPOU. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR UNDER THE CORE OF ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR VSBYS.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRAVELS ALONG
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AT
KPOU...AND POSSIBLY KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-15Z/SAT. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR
WHERE THE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES...AT 10-20 KT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AT 5-10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32.0
CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A
WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE TODAY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO THE W-SW AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. RH VALUES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR
100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT ON SAT AFTN...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG ON SUNDAY FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND NORMAL FLOW CONDITIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS. MOST AREAS
LOOK TO SEE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. ALL AREAS LOOK TO SEE PRECIP CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SAT
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
MONDAY...BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

DUE TO PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SOME MINOR RISES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

123 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND VERY WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS IT/S FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE
REGION...WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NW CT. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK
FOR ANY STEADIER RAINFALL TO MOVE IN...MAINLY FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST.

WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR ONLY SLOWING FALLING...WITH
MIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH
S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SFC-H850 LAYER INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS IT WILL BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
WESTWARD FROM THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL NY INTO ERN NY BTWN
12Z-15Z. PWATS RISE ABOVE NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER
TO 0 TO -2C FROM THE GFS/NAM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL START OUT VERY BALMY WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S
TO L70S IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWER TO
MID 60S WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME 50S
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AS THE FRONT SAGS S/SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FRI NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND
IN THE EVENING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH H850 TEMPS
FALLING TO 0C TO +2C SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND OC TO -5C NORTH AND
WEST. SCT SHOWERS END EARLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS
09Z-12Z FOR A THREAT OF ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE POTENT SHORT-WAVE WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IMPACT
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT. H850/925 TEMPS LOWER WELL
BELOW FREEZING BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ACTUALLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE...H850 TEMPS FALL TO -12C TO
-18C FROM SE TO NW OVER THE FCST AREA. CRITICAL THICKNESSES COUPLED
WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...LOW AND
MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SAT
EVENING TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS. MOST LOCATIONS
COULD RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ACTUALLY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...COULD GET 2-4". IT WILL BECOME WINDY AND VERY COLD.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND U50S IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE
DAY...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. LOWS WILL TUMBLE
INTO THE 20S TO L30S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN
GREENS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINTERLIKE AND ACTIVE.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. THE DAY
SHOULD START OUT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED LAKE EFFECT
SNOWBANDS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND ALSO UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH...IF NOT STRONGER. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS MAY REBOUND
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE
REMAINING IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR SUN NT-MON NT...AFTER A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND INTO PA/SE NY. MODELS
SUGGEST A VERY TIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO A SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH WITH THE
ULTIMATE TRACK WILL RESULT IN DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SOME RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
40S OR WARMER...WHILE SNOW AND HIGHS IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT
DYNAMICS...PARTICULARLY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...COULD BE VERY
STRONG...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH OF MODERATE OR HEAVY
PRECIP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK...WHICH COULD BE SNOW.
AT THE VERY LEAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE...ESP NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW
MAY ARRIVE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A SNOWY
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF MON EVE...WITH COLDER
AIR INFILTRATING THE ENTIRE REGION IN ITS WAKE.

AS FOR TEMPS FOR SUN NT-MON NT...OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR SUN NT/MON AM...THEN RANGE FROM THE 20S/LOWER 30S
TO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...DEPENDING ON THE
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE STORM. MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S AND
30S TUE...AND 30S TO LOWER 40S WED. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WED NT-THU...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR LATE WED
NT INTO THU. P-TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE PROBLEMATIC...ESP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED NT THROUGH THU AM...WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MAY PERSIST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATER THU. COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT COULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS THU NT.

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH NOT
MENTIONED...SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
DISSIPATE AS WE GO TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FROM WEST TO EAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION STARTING
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO DELAY FOR
KPSF/KPOU. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN-
CONJUCNTION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THROUGH
00Z...PERHAPS EVEN PAST 00Z AT KPOU.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST PAST ALL TAF SITES RIGHT TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AROUND 00Z AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU AND AROUND 03Z SATURDAY FOR KPSF.
VCSH WILL BE STILL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TO THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD HIGHLIGHTING THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR/MVFR
LEVELS AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33.0 CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER THE 70 TO 100 PERCENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THE RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE 50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE...AND
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

OVERALL...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MAY PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTION. DUE TO RATHER LOW
WATER LEVELS...NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE
OF LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

COLDER WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. RIVER
FLOWS SHOULD RECEDE IN THE COLD AIR MASS.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

525 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...UPDATED FOR CHANGES IN MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY HIGH AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...AND
CONTINUING OVER NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BEING FORCED WAY TO THE NORTH INTO ALASKA OVER-TOP A SHARP
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...BEFORE DIVING STRAIGHT
SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO MONTANA/IDAHO/GREAT BASIN
REGION. THIS MERIDIONAL DIP CARVES OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERING THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT PLANES...UPPER
MIDWEST...AND MS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM HAS NOW
BEEN PUSHED OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT EYES AN ARRIVAL OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
AMPLIFICATION INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HAVE
WEATHER IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL AREA FOR SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF A
NORTH-SOUTH PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...AND BAND OF ASSOCIATED
RAIN/STORMS.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND SHRINK BACK TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE RATHER WARM AND HUMID FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DELIVERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE.

AWAY FROM SHORE...OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WEST OF THE NATURE
COAST...WE ARE SEEING INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
APALACHEE BAY COASTAL OBS...THAT A BAND OF SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALWAYS DIFFICULT WITHOUT OBS OVER
THE WATER TO DETERMINE IF THESE FEATURES ARE INDEED FOG OR LOW LEVEL
STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SPORT SST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE
EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER 60S WATER TEMPS UNDER THE BAND...AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S...IT IS CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME OF THE BAND IS INDEED FOG. HAVE SIDED WITH CAUTION AND
ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE WATERS ADJACENT TO
PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 15Z. HOPEFULLY AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF THE SUN BEING UP...SOME DIURNAL MIXING (ALTHOUGH MORE
LIMITED OVER THE WATER) WILL HELP LIFT ANY FOG BACK TO A LOWER
STRATUS DECK...RESULTING IN LESS IMPACT TO MARINE NAVIGATION.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...A WARM AND HUMID FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GENERALLY SPEAKING WE ARE
EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...AND MOST LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR DEEP ASCENT REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY
CLOSE CALL FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND LEVY COUNTY...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO KEEP THE CONVECTION TODAY
JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FURTHER SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF COLD POOL BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS UP
TOWARD I-10...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
REACHING THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% RAIN CHANCE
OVER THIS FAR NORTHERN ZONE AND QUICKLY TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN
FURTHER SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS FORECAST AS THE HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEEDING THE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY IS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL TONIGHT.

ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA-BREEZE. MANY OF
THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCT SHOWERS AFTER 19-20Z OVER POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY SPARSE...AND ANY RAINFALL SHORT-
LIVED. PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH HIGHER TOWARD NOT SEEING RAIN IN ANY
ONE LOCATION THAN OF SEEING A SHOWER.

GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AS THE POTENTIAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN IS
HIGH...AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL BE GOOD. LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90S TO SHOW UP
WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW
AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER...BUT
MANY BEACHES SHOULD STILL SUCCEED IN REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE
MEANINGFUL PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...HELPING TO FINALLY
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SPREADING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. MAY TAKE SOME TIME
OVERNIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT AN INCREASING RAIN CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN BAND OF RAIN
SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...LEVY COUNTY BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WHOLE THING WILL THEN SETTLE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FURTHER NORTH
YOU ARE...THE EARLIER THE RAINFALL...THE MORE LIKELY THE
RAINFALL...AND THE HEAVIER THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO PASS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...SO THOSE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-4 WILL SEE DECREASING OVERALL SUPPORT. DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY OFTER WE SEE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH WITH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD POOLS...DUE TO
LIMITATIONS WITH MOST BOUNDARY LAYER SCHEMES TOWARD THE EVOLUTION
OF MCS OUTFLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPECT THE ACTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN TO MOVE FASTER THAN
SHOWN BY MOST NWP MEMBERS.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS
ASSESSMENT SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FROM A
LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC POINT OF VIEW...AND ALSO THE PRESENCE OF
AROUND 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. 40 KNOTS IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. A
MARGINAL RISK SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
LET OUR GUARD DOWN. A MARGINAL RISK STILL MEANS A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED QLCS (QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) TORNADO THREAT CAN ALSO EXIST WITH A MARGINAL
RISK...KEEPING IN MIND THAT QLCS TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH STILL
DANGEROUS...MOST OFTEN FALL WITHIN THE EF-0 OR EF-1 RANKINGS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE NATURE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FOR MONDAY...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ONE PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN
QUICKLY OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FEEL A BIT DIFFERENT (MORE HUMID) OUTSIDE
THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS DUE TO THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND THE HIGH.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST FOR THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON FRIDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
BEGINNING TO SEE THE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHEST POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNRISE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST SOME SEA FOG WELL OFFSHORE...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADVECTING THE FOG ONSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...BUT CURRENT TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT ANTICIPATE SEA FOG
ISSUES FOR THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ONCE
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN
THE DAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

A BAND OF MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM EDT. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE FOG BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE TODAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS
EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE BEFORE SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITHIN
A FEW HOUR OF SUNRISE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE UP TOWARD COASTAL
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES WHERE SOME SEA FOG MAY BE A FACTOR LATER
INTO THE DAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 72 80 61 / 0 10 70 40
FMY 87 72 85 68 / 0 0 30 20
GIF 87 71 82 61 / 20 0 70 30
SRQ 79 72 79 64 / 0 10 70 40
BKV 86 69 78 57 / 10 10 80 30
SPG 83 72 80 65 / 0 10 70 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

457 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE RATHER WARM AND HUMID FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DELIVERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE.

AWAY FROM SHORE...OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES WEST OF THE
NATURE COAST...WE ARE SEEING INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ALONG WITH APALACHEE BAY COASTAL OBS...THAT A BAND OF
SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITHOUT OBS OVER THE WATER TO DETERMINE IF THESE
FEATURES ARE INDEED FOG OR LOW LEVEL STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
SPORT SST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER 60S
WATER TEMPS UNDER THE BAND...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...IT IS CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE
BAND IS INDEED FOG. HAVE SIDED WITH CAUTION AND ISSUED A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE OFFSHORE WATERS(BEYOND 20NM FROM
SHORE) ADJACENT TO PINELLAS/PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY
UNTIL 15Z. HOPEFULLY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF THE SUN BEING UP...SOME
DIURNAL MIXING (ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED OVER THE WATER) WILL HELP
LIFT ANY FOG BACK TO A LOWER STRATUS DECK...RESULTING IN LESS
IMPACT TO MARINE NAVIGATION.

A BAND OF MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES
(GREATER THAN 20NM FROM SHORE) ADJACENT TO THE NATURE COAST ZONES.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE OFFSHORE ZONE IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH 11 AM EDT. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MARINERS
ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING
THE FOG BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE TODAY.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

142 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...Severe storms and flooding possible through early Saturday...

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Saturday] Aviators are in for periods of low cigs and
rain as a cold front moves very slowly southeastward across the
region later today and tonight. We expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to
develop by daybreak across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL, then
spreading eastward across north FL and south GA by early
afternoon. A few storms could be severe with 50 KT gusts and
large hail. There may be a lull in storms, at least at KTLH and
KVLD, late this afternoon and evening; while KDHN, KABY, and KECP
will have the most persistent rain. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs will
be the rule through much of the period.

.Prev Discussion [818 PM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A trough was extended across the central/western US with a shortwave
embedded in the through across the central Plains to mid-
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A slow moving cold front was
associated with this system and the front will push into the lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. A complex of storms has been pushing
across AL/GA today with the stronger storms across southern
Alabama. This is the area on the northern side of the better CAPE
(around 1000 J/kg) and the southern side of the better shear.
While CAPE values will be decent across the western extent of the
CWA, the area will be slightly less favorable than further
westward. Still the potential for severe storms though into this
evening, particularly across the western portion of the CWA. While
some models have struggled with depicting the showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, the HRRR consistently showed the
showers and thunderstorms pushing into the CWA this afternoon.
Have trended the forecast for the evening towards the HRRR and
thus increased PoPs across the western half of the CWA through
this evening. Some of this activity may linger into tonight, but
then expect a lull before another round moves into SE Alabama late
tonight.

Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees
above normal.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Deep moist southwest flow aloft through Friday night will gradually
flatten becoming zonal by Saturday night as the axis of the broad
trough swings to our east. The associated cold front entering the
Lower Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period will
slowly translate eastward across our CWA Friday night through midday
Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the front with some containing very heavy rainfall. A
surface low is expected to develop along the boundary in the
northern Gulf Friday and lift northeastward across the Florida
Panhandle. This will further enhance convection with heavy rains
and we have issued a flash flood watch for all but the SE Big Bend
and a few of our southeast Georgia counties. The watch is in
effect through 8 am Saturday as we expect widespread QPF amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts between 5 and 6 inches.

In addition to the flash flood threat, we still have the potential
for severe weather with the greatest threat during the Friday to
Friday night time frame. SPC has a portion of western zones
highlighted in the slight risk through tonight and all but our SE
Big bend zones for Friday/Friday night. The greatest threat
continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds but large hail and
isolated tornados are also possible. The cold front is expected to
be roughly along a line from near Albany to Apalachicola around
daybreak Saturday with a marginal risk for severe weather along and
to the east of there. The cold front is expected to clear all
zones by noon or shortly thereafter.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much drier airmass
will filter in through Monday. A dry cold front will drop down from
the north bringing a re-enforcement of drier air on Tuesday that will
continue at least into the middle of the week. A stronger cold front
may arrive late Wednesday or Thursday bringing with it the next
chance for rain. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

.Marine...

Moderate southerly winds will persist through Friday night before
a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday. Marginal exercise
caution conditions are possible at times through Friday,
especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will develop on
Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible from Friday night through Saturday night, mainly across
the western waters.

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns. A soaking rain is expected by
Friday if not sooner. Drier air will move in on Saturday and remain
in place for a few days, but is not expected to reach the threshold
for Red Flag criteria.

.Hydrology...

Current conditions across the region show above normal stream flows
in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the Suwannee.
Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola,
Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.

Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight through the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due to
the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists for
widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated
heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest
guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the
Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would
suggest at least that the most impactful river flooding would be
limited to areas already in flood.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through
Saturday morning.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 79 68 75 48 74 / 100 100 60 0 0
Panama City 75 66 71 52 70 / 100 100 40 0 0
Dothan 74 61 71 46 71 / 100 80 20 0 0
Albany 76 63 72 45 71 / 100 100 30 0 0
Valdosta 80 68 74 47 73 / 100 100 80 0 0
Cross City 82 72 78 49 76 / 40 90 80 10 0
Apalachicola 74 69 74 51 71 / 100 100 60 0 0

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY/CHANEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

135 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND DIMINISHED UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA 500 AM TO 700 AM.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET MOVING
INTO THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS
DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH
ARE MOVING EAST...AS UPPER ENERGY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WILL
CONCENTRATE DETAIL ON THE NEAR TERM. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH BREEZY
CONDTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

320 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH
IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB
CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500
FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME
SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON
COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT

SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.

A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR
EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS
WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY
AREAS.

OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO
CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE
LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO
YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY
OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER
AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW.

FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE:

- SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL.
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE
CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE
PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING.

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID
MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE
FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT.

MTF

.MARINE...
320 PM CDT

A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A
PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES
THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

232 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT

SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE:

- SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL.
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

MTF

.MARINE...
328 AM CDT

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES
TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE
NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG
WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY.

BEACHLER

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

231 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE:

- SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL.
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

MTF

.MARINE...
328 AM CDT

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

BEACHLER

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

220 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR
EVENING CHANGING TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS
THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME
VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE:

- SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL.
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

MTF

.MARINE...
328 AM CDT

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

BEACHLER

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

155 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
335 AM CDT

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
RIDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. OUT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...EXPECT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS AHEAD FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS EARLY ON SUNDAY TO NEAR DBQ SUNDAY EVENING WILL BRING
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TO THE REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST TO
AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WINDS. STRONG H85
WINDS TO AROUND 60 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE H85 TEMPS TO
7-10C BY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE WARM AIR BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS. THIS CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
ECMWF AND GEM ADVERTISING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER IT PANS OUT...THE WARM-UP WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
WITH AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
FAIRLY DRY COLUMN WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 0.75 INCHES DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODELS DO TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
QPF SUNDAY NIGHT. THINKING MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING QPF A BIT SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET ALBEIT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S ON MONDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. OUR
ROLLER COASTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS YET
ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE AT THIS
DISTANCE THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM...A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
WITH COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

BMD

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE:

- SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL.
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

MTF

.MARINE...
328 AM CDT

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES
QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

312 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

Upper shortwave trof passing over the forecast area in these
overnight hours, bumping up the winds as it comes through and
bringing showers just north of the area. Secondary push seen in WV
imagery to the northwest of this trof, forecast to move into our
area this afternoon.

For today, expecting highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday
as weak cold advection moves through. Soundings suggest enough
mixing in the boundary layer by early afternoon with the incoming
wave to generate a few showers over the northeastern counties and
have added some slight chances there. Highs still forecast to reach
into the low 50s north with middle 50s south. Relative humidities
drop into the 25-30% range, and couples with afternoon winds around
20 mph, making for high to very high fire danger for several hours
this afternoon. Overnight lows will be impacted by clear skies and
cooler airmass, but countered by a potential light west wind.
Current forecast is for lows near freezing, but with dewpoints in
the 20s think a farther drop is possible. Could have impacts on
outdoor sensitive vegetation.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

Expect a warming trend this weekend as the mid-level trough exits
further to the east. With northwesterly flow aloft still prevailing
into Saturday, it will keep temperatures seasonal in the low/mid 60s
despite the abundant sunshine. By Sunday, surface low pressure will
be diving southward into the Northern Plains and High Plains,
resulting in winds shifting to the southwest and causing a decent
pressure gradient to set up over the area. These southwest winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph along with mostly sunny skies will
support decent warm-air advection with highs expected to soar into
the mid/upper 70s. Models show some drier air moving into the
region ahead of the advancing surface low, resulting in afternoon
relative humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20 percent
range. As a result, elevated fire danger concerns are expected for
Sunday afternoon.

The surface low and associated cold front will track eastward across
the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning, however do not
expect anything more than a slight temperature cool-down from this
frontal passage with Monday highs dropping a few degrees into the
mid 60s to low 70s. A mid-level ridge will advance into the central
U.S. Monday night into Tuesday with the next mid-level trough
located over the northern Rockies. Models show this trough
deepening as it advances into the central U.S., which will help to
push a cold front through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
While there is modest lift with this frontal passage, there is some
uncertainty with regards to the amount of available moisture to help
produce scattered precipitation. Due to the limited moisture, only
have slight to low-end chance PoPs in for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, and cannot rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder. While temperatures will warm up a bit on Tuesday with
southerly winds boosting afternoon highs into the low/mid 70s, the
frontal passage will cool temperatures slightly with highs dropping
into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday as the region remains under
northwesterly flow aloft. Low temperatures this upcoming week will
remain above freezing and generally in the 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF with a very small
potential for brief MVFR between 09Z-13Z at TOP/FOE. Winds will be
predominantly from the west to northwest, and expect occasional
gusts prior to sunrise and then frequent gusts through the day.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Fairly quiet weather is expected during the short term domain. An
upper level longwave trough will continue to move away from the region.
At the sfc, high pressure will prevail. Think some limited mid level
moisture will work its way down in the northwest flow aloft today. However,
lower sfc dewpoints will also advect in. The net result, is a dry forecast.
The 4 km NAM shows some sprinkles, but the other models like the ARW
are dry. Again, think some clouds will prevail, but seriously doubt
anything more than this. Otherwise, highs today will be in the 50s.
As with the previously mentioned lower dewpoints, have opted for a cooler
solution for lows tonight given the dry atmosphere and a good night
for radiational cooling - upper 20s to just around freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Downslope flow will continue through the weekend. By Sunday, ideal downslope
southwesterly flow develops with 850-hPa temperatures creeping back
to the teens. As a result, will see moderating temperatures through
the weekend with 60s Friday and balmy upper 70s by Sunday. I don`t think
we will see elevated or near critical fire weather conditions Saturday,
however, Sunday is the day to watch and active fire weather behavior
is possible. Relative humidities should fall low enough, however, winds
may be more on the marginal side. Something to watch and be cognizant
of. Lows will moderate through the weekend as well even with the dry
atmosphere prevailing. For next week, slightly cooler highs are possible
Monday as a backdoor cold front moves in from the northeast. Tuesday
is still looking very warm with some 80s possible. A good downslope,
compressional adiabatic warming day. Active fire weather behavior is
possible once again on Tuesday. There may be enough lift along a cold
front for isolated showers and possibly thunderstorms. Boundary layer
moisture is not that impressive on the ECMWF with this system, so the
slight superblend pops in the east look fine for now. We will see a
decrease in highs once again by midweek in the post-frontal air mass.
The overall synoptic pattern with a Rex block upstream is not conducive
to any significant precipitation through the end of the business week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd with some high level clouds,
but no operational impacts. Winds will be NW/N starting 8-12 kt early
this morning, increasing 15-25 kt by late morning, then back down to
5-10 kt by evening.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 30 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 55 28 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 55 28 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 57 28 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 53 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 58 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave
trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller
scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the
western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas
into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to
western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it
continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level
cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the
potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary
surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing
of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will
not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon.

Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the
afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga
showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to
around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no
indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that
anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating
precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of
an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we
will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers).

For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward,
however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep
winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest
wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the
Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into
Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF-
ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850-
700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope
from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Much of southwest Kansas is now in official drought conditions
(D1/Moderate Drought) per US Drought Monitor...primarily along and
south of the Arkansas River. The forecast period through mid next
week looks dry. The hemispheric jet stream pattern will be split
across North America through the period -- the main polar jet will
reside across southern Canada/northern CONUS as will the storm
track. The southern jet stream will be less active with a closed low
expected to form well off the southern California Coast. As long as
we continue to see a fairly fast, northern jet stream, we will not
see any precipitation (or at least meaningful precipitation) across
western Kansas. A trough will develop across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region early next week, and we should see a backdoor cold
front Monday. This would be a brief shot of cooler air which will
likely be followed be another lee trough Tuesday ahead of the next
synoptic storm system ripping across the Rockies (most likely over
us or to our north). The Tuesday system would be coming out into the
plains amidst a depleted moisture source to our south given such a
strong cold front penetration over the weekend. On the whole,
temperatures will continue to be above average with highs well into
the 70s and lower 80s ahead of fronts (Sunday and Tuesday) with
upper 60s to lower 70s behind fronts.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 57 30 68 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 26 56 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 30 56 30 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 29 58 29 68 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 29 55 31 66 / 20 0 0 0
P28 33 59 31 69 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND PUSHING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
REGION AND I-75 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...IN VICINITY OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL
TRENDS ARE AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A
COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH
A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR
FORCING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A
HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM
THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS
IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT
EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS
LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD...
DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME
FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS
WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT
THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY HOLDING AT ALL SITES...BUT ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN COME TO AN END
AROUND MID MORNING AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR CRITERIA AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND A COOL FRONT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME A TAD GUSTY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

958 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STARTING TO LOSE ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM NOW AS STRONG S/WV TROF BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE LOW
PRES CENTER TRACKING ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FNT IN SRN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS PLACES THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SNWFL
JUST N OF THAT. MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT HRRR RUNS WOULD HAVE
THIS SLIGHTLY S OF GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH DOES COMPLICATE
THE FORECAST SOME. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM...I
WILL LEAN MORE ON THE HI-RES GUIDANCE AND SHARPEN THE POP GRADIENT
ON THE N SIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FNT CONTINUES ITS MARCH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL FALL BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT MAYBE MORE NOTICEABLY WILL BE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE POTENT S/WV TROF ROARING THRU
THE GREAT LAKES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. AS THE
TROF SWING THRU NEW ENGLAND AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR JUST OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. AS HEIGHTS CRASH ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS
ORGANIZE...A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE LOW PATH. WITHIN THIS BAND SN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT
TIMES. CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THIS JUST S OF THE MA
BORDER...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEAR WATCHING OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...SEVERAL INCHES OF SWNFL ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE MA
BORDER REGION...AND MAY COME DOWN AT A HALF TO 1 INCH PER HR AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...AND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS...THE
DEVELOPING LOW...PRES GRADIENT...AND ESPECIALLY CAA INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN. WITH DEEP
MIXING PLENTY OF 40 KT GUSTS LOOK PROBABLE...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED HIGH WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL AREAS SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
INTO THE 50 MPH RANGE...SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHER
GUSTS. THE INTENSIFYING LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL QUICKLY EXIT WELL
OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOW OVER SOUTHERN
MOST AREAS. WITH STRONG MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS SUBSIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TEENS TO LOWER
20S ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HANDLE THE VERY COLD TEMPS WELL
CONSIDERING ITS EARLY APRIL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND IN A COMBINATION OF TWO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM DROPPING ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GGEM AND GFS THE FURTHEST
NORTH...WHILE THE EURO IS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND FURTHER
SOUTH. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

MORE COLD AIR DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAVE HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTH
AND 30S SOUTH. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY COLD ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY NEAR 32 DEGREES FOR PORTLAND. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMP FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR IS 50 DEGREES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND HEAD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE NOT CLUSTERED VERY CLOSELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOWEVER.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEASON HAS BEGUN AND IT APPEARS A CUTOFF
WILL FORM OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WEATHER.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH AND ME THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. NORTHERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...SOME WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING MOSTLY TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ON MONDAY. AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
MIDWEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SO GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A STRONG NORTHWEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS AS WE MAY HAVE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.

NEAR TERM...LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

858 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

WILL REMOVE ALL OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TONIGHT...BRINGING
THEM BACK AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING HAS REALLY DIMINISHED THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAMP
UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT /1-2"/. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BLOW THE SNOW AROUND...SO AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY AT
TIMES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /1-3"/. ALSO TWEAKED THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING...AS LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BRINGS
SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA QUICKLY AFTER 12Z FROM WEST-EAST.

SORT OF A HEADLINE MESS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WE END ONE
EVENT...HAVE LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT...THEN BRING BACK WIDESPREAD
WAA SNOW ON SUNDAY. I DON/T FORESEE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORY. BUT WILL BE EVALUATING THAT THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

SNOWY EARLY APRIL DAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD MID LVL TEMPS REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WILL BE CENTERED ON LINGERING EVENING SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AND THE TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW...AND CURRENT HEADLINES.

THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AND DROPPING SOUTH OF SAGINAW BAY.
CORRESPONDING 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WITH
THE EXITING BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z.
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL OVER NRN MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE TRANSITION
TO LAKE INDUCED SNOWFALL IS ALREADY QUICKLY BECOMING EVIDENT...AS
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE BANDS BEGIN TO SHOW ON RADAR. 850MB TEMPS COOL
FROM EARLIER READINGS OF -8C TO -13C THIS EVENING AND FINALLY TO
-16C OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL TEMP
AND MSTR PROFILES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 6500FT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE MOST WELL
ORGANIZED AND DOMINATE LAKE BANDS OCCURRING AFTER 03Z...LIMITED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BY SOLAR DISRUPTIONS AND UN-ORGANIZED
925-850MB WINDS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

OVERALL WILL DIMINISH SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS
SYNOPTIC FORCING DWINDLES...AND REMOVE HEADLINE FROM SAGINAW BAY
AREA. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE HEADLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR
TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELT REGIONS AS NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT BEGINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

SUNDAY...WILL BE BLANKETING N LOWER WITH AN ADVISORY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT QUITE ALL TOGETHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
NAM THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW, THE GFS A
LITTLE MORE NORTH ALONG M-55, BUT WITH PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GETTING ENOUGH SNOW TO ADVISORY CRITERIA (>3"), AND THE ECMWF WITH
AN AXIS THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS TO ABOUT HARRISVILLE. THE
MIDDLE GROUND ON THIS WAS THE HI-RES ARW MODEL. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH GRR AND DTX, LOOKS LIKE A 4-6" AMOUNT FOR THE 24 HOURS OF 12Z
TO 12Z AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NEAR M-55, AND 3-5" IN THE
NORTH AREAS, EVEN UP TO NEAR THE BRIDGE. WON`T BE SURPRISED IF
PORTIONS OF THIS, DEPENDING ON THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND SIGNALS FOR
F-GEN BANDING THAT SOMEONE ENDS UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SNOW MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER VEER NE OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS AS MENTIONED BEFORE USUALLY IS A DRY, COLD FLOW AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT CLEARS OUT UPSTREAM SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT
MONDAY COULD BE A CHILLY START IN THE SOO, AND POSSIBLY NE LOWER
AS THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST BRIEFLY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK N AND THEN NW. THE 850-700 MB
LAYER RH IS FAIRLY DRY UPSTREAM, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY (850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C)THERE WILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP IN NW LOWER. SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
IN NW LOWER. THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND SW OVERNIGHT, WITH RAPID
DRYING SO THAT ANYTHING STILL GOING SHOULD SHUT OFF, AS WELL AS
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z.

TUESDAY...THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WE WARM UP WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INVADING THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...NEXT UPPER TROF WILL CROSS NORTHERN
MI WED NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKES REGION WED. NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS JOGGED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
LOW...A TREND THAT SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPS ON WED AND PRECIP FALLING
MORE AS SNOW AND LESS AS A MIX. WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES...CERTAINLY STILL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

ARCTIC SHORTWAVE DIVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THU NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PLUNGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE
EFFECT. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE SOME 15-20F BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...PERHAPS REBOUNDING AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT MBL/TVC. CIGS
VARYING BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW SPREADS QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
CIGS DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD LOW END MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20KTS+ THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING
THE WEEKEND...AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WHILE A SECOND SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF THEN NORTHERN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS WITH GALES IN
THE ERN STRAITS. WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING...
BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ019>022-025>028-031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JZ/JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...SWR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

745 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

TUESDAY...THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WE WARM UP WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INVADING THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ019>022-
025>028-031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ029-
030-035-036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JZ/JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...SWR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

133 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.AVIATION...

BKN MVFR DECK WILL BECOME SCT IN GENERAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID DECK AROUND 10KFT THICKENING. WEST WINDS WILL BACK
TO SW WITH JUST A WAGGLE BACK TO THE WSW LATE EVENING AS WEAK WAVE
RIPPLES THROUGH AREA. MVFR CIGS MAY VERY WELL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS
WELL. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN COLLAPSE ON THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY WITH CIGS BECOMING DEFINITIVELY MVFR AND AN AREA OF
SNOW/RAIN OVERSPREADING AREA...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW MOST LIKELY
GIVEN DEGREE OF COLD AIR SHIFTING INTO THE AREA.

FOR DTW...REMAINING MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT 20Z-00Z WITH BKN TO
OVC 10KFT DECK DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BACK TO SW...BUT VEER CLOSER
TO 250-270 DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH. PERIOD
OF POWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN OVERSPREAD AREA 18Z SATURDAY AS CLIPPER LOW
MOVES INTO AREA. WHILE WINDS WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST...GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS FROM A GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION MAY IMPACT RUNWAY
CONFIGURATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...LOW TONIGHT...HIGH BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

* MEDIUM IN WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS FROM 260-290 DEGREES BY
21Z-00Z SATURDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

A FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE MORE WINTERLIKE WEATHER AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS PAST EVENING...LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY GRABBING AHOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
RESULTED IN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND BY GAUGING SOME UPSTREAM RADAR
DATA SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN THE
GRIDS BY INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL THEN YIELD A POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE
MORNING. HRRR RUNS SHOW SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE EARLY CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
PROCESSES (BOTH DIRECT DCVA AND LEFT EXIT REGION ALBEIT FADING JET
DYNAMICS) AND IS SHOWN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
OVERALL...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO STRAY AWAY FROM LOWER CHANCE POPS.
THE ONE INTERESTING ITEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IS CONTINGENT FIRST ON
DEVELOPMENT AND SECOND ON VIGOR OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD SEE
SOME GRAUPEL WITH LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3000 FT AGL. THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENING WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE
WITH THE CHANCES OR AMOUNTS BUT MODELS DO SHOW A TRANSIENT AND VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE...TIED TO ACTUAL MIDLEVEL FLOW
DISCONTINUITY. DIFFERENTIAL ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG
WITH A DEAD SPOT IN THE JET FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN THE LATTER HALF
OF TONIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DYNAMIC AND DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM
SET TO DESCEND UPON LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPIATION EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE 18-00Z TIME WINDOW. THE OVERALL CONFIGURATION OF THE
SHORTWAVE...UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION STRUCTURE...AND
MAGINTUDE/TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS IMPRESSIVE AND
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH UVVS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE PROJECTED
UVVS...DEPTH OF SATURATION TO THE TROPOPAUSE AT A LOW 17 KFT
AGL...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 2-8 KFT AGL ALL POINT TO A TIME
PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPATION RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
PTYPE QUESTIONS AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH LIQUID WOULD EAT INTO
AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERWHELMING IDEA IS THAT PRECIPIATION RATES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH AND SFC DEWPOINTS/WET BULBS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW IN MANY IF NOT ALL AREAS. AS A RESULT...THE NARRATIVE
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IS ONE OF SNOW ACTIVTY THAT COULD CATCH MANY
OFF GUARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS (INCLUDING A STRIPE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES)...TO POSSIBLY AN INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS DETROIT. MODELS REMAIN
ADAMANT THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEST
TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS (APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR SOME AREAS) WILL BE 21-06Z. THE STRONGEST NW WINDS WILL
BE SUPPORTED ALONG THE W AND NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE
REFELECTION...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 96.
HOWEVER...THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL REFINEMENT TO THE WIND
FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING RIGHT INTO THE EVENT.

MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES
LEADING TO SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING. THE QUIET PERIOD WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE READY TO
IMPACT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE LESS ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE ABOUT THE FRONTAL
WAVE RESPONSE AND VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. WITH
THE HIGH SENSITIVITY TO EXACTLY WHERE IN THE COLUMN THE
FRONTOGENESIS WILL FIRE ALONG WITH THE PIVOTING FRONTAL WAVE...THERE
IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SUNDAY EVENING EVENT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING OVER THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SAGINAW VALLEY WOULD
HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
IT AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

MARINE...

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION...RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF INCREASED WIND. THE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE
RESULTANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKES WITH ALREADY STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND THUS A PERIOD
OF GALES IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GALE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
441>443-462>464.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

602 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.AVIATION...

MVFR DECK AROUND 1-2KFT SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSED THROUGH ALLOWING ANOTHER POP
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. FLOW WILL BECOME
WESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL HELP WARM THE LOW
LEVELS...AIDED BY DIURNAL FORCING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL HELP MIX OUT THE INVERSION AND LIFT CIGS BACK ABOVE 4KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS EVEN SCOUR OUT ALL THE CLOUDS BELOW 10KFT
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND 00-06Z TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

FOR DTW...ONLY A FEW IFR OBSERVATIONS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME THUS CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MVFR WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TODAY WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL SHIFT TO AROUND 290 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW
THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
441>443-462>464.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

400 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.MARINE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH THE ADDED ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST...LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN TRENDS TOWARD IFR UPSTREAM.
GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS/. A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER IN
THE MORNING AND THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT INVERSION
BASES...LEADING TO STEADY RISING CEILING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH
OF METRO THIS MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS HOLDING A LOW END MVFR CEILING
DURING IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW
THIS EVENING.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
441>443-462>464.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1155 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...

FOR DTW...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH
OF METRO THIS MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS HOLDING A LOW END MVFR CEILING
DURING IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW
THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 955 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST PART. REGIONAL RADAR DATA DOES SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO SRN LAKE MI...ALONG A SECONDARY SFC
TROUGH AXIS. CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG THIS LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH
OVER SE MI WILL ALSO BE LACKING...ADDING LITTLE SUPPORT TO ADD
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE NIGHT FORECAST. SKIES HAVE
TEMPORARILY CLEARED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
SHOWERS. A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
LOWER CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A NEED TO ADD DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FRI
MORNING...SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE. THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO REFINE CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DISCUSSION...

WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND
THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A
BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION
OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED
WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN
THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER,
GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL
TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY
IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES
OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE
DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S
THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO
AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS
IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.

VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR
SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING
OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE
DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS
SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST
LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL.
THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF
EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY
NEARS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END
OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE
TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND.

HYDROLOGY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING
HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ361.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC/RK
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

654 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

THE COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND HAS BEEN DRIVING
LINGERING BKN/OVC CUMULUS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET...ACCELERATING THE CLEARING TREND AND PERHAPS GIVING
PEOPLE A CHANCE TO VIEW A POSSIBLE AURORA DUE TO A GEOMAGNETIC
STORM IN PROGRESS AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS.

HOWEVER...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA. THE
CLIPPER WILL DIVE OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN PASS THROUGH SE NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EARLY SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND NEARBY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...REACH MAX
INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE EXACTLY THE BAND WILL SET UP...AND HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
FALL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MODEL TREND WAS TO SHIFT THE BAND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUNS. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH...EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT TO RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS
ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. CONCERNED ABOUT THE AGGRESSIVE
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL...WHICH DEPICTS MUCH GREATER AND FOCUSED
PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS. MAY NEED TO REFINE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS AS
THE RAP AND HRRR COME INTO PLAY AND OFFER A MEANS TO BETTER
ESTIMATE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND.

OTHERWISE...BACKING WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...BUT PARTS OF
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND BE ABLE TO WARM UP MUCH
MORE SO THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY CUT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC LIFT TO RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AREA
SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -10C OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AREA TO -18C
NORTHEAST AT 12Z MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL SHOW A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE
NAM SUPPORTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF. SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...AND WE
1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE NORTH SHORE TO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AS BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS ON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH MONDAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
NORTHLAND DRY.

A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WEAKER QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT THE RESULT
WILL BE THE SAME ON THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
WE TRENDED A BIT COLDER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE MORE OF A
MIX TUESDAY AND SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW SOONER TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM 30 TO 40 FOR MOST AREAS WITH MID
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK TO 30 TO 40 THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MOVE IN AFTER 07Z TONIGHT.
KINL...KHIB AND KDLH TO BE MOST STRONGLY AFFECTED WITH AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW. HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THIS FOR NOW AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONCE
THE SNOW COMES TO AN END FOR EACH SITE...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. KBRD AND KHYR WILL ALMOST MISS OUT
ON THIS WAVE...WITH THE BETTER SATURATION AND LIFT NORTH OF BOTH
LOCATIONS. KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TO AT LEAST 18Z WHEN THEY
MAY GET SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS AND HAVE LEFT THESE OUT FOR NOW. KHYR IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND AND HAVE PUT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WHEN IT IS CLOSEST...WITH LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 21 30 21 31 / 40 30 50 50
INL 16 31 13 31 / 70 70 30 0
BRD 23 43 25 41 / 0 10 10 0
HYR 17 39 21 35 / 30 20 10 10
ASX 18 31 21 31 / 60 60 60 40

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ012-
020-021.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
917 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Freezing temps still look to be on target for areas in IL, with
only the most northeasterly sections of the forecast area with the
best chance of seeing a few hours of sub-freezing temps. No
changes to the Freeze Warning. For most places, these sub-freezing
temps will be closely tied to the timing of light winds, with
areas further to the west, including most of MO, to receive
strengthening southerly winds toward dawn, and should largely
prevent frost from developing. The best chances for frost in areas
outside of the Freeze Warning will be some outlying areas in STL
metro, namely Metro East, and sheltered areas of southeast MO.

Otherwise, attention turns to another windy day on tap for Sunday,
but this time the winds will be from the southwest. Guidance shows
another low level jet at h925 of 40-45kts that will be placed over
northeast MO and central IL by midday Sunday, and with mixing
anticipated to be this deep, should result in gusts to 45mph in
these areas. But overall, the setup does not look as strong as it
did today, and so limited the Advisory that has been issued to
just the northern forecast area.

Remainder of forecast looks on target, with clear skies and dry wx
thru Sunday afternoon, and a warm day on tap thanks to the SW
winds.

Of other concern will be potential for another Red Flag Fire day,
with anticipated fuels sufficiently dry in nearly all areas based
on readings today, sufficient winds and RH criteria that is very
close. Mid shift will make the needed final call here.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Sfc ridge will build into the region tonight allowing winds to
gradually diminish this evening. Winds shud become light and vrb
before becoming sly as the ridge shifts ewd. The sly winds shud help
keep temps warmer. Going forecast for temps tonight still appear to
be on track and little change was made from the previous forecast.

With the much drier air advecting swd into the region, believe
potential for frost is minimal and have reduced coverage to patchy
frost for tonight. Areas where winds become sly even sooner will
likely have an even harder time generating frost except for perhaps
sheltered areas.

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Yet another clipper will move from the Northern Plains across the
Upper Mississippi Valley to near Chicago on Sunday. We will remain
in the warm sector all day Sunday with strong and gusty southwest
flow through through much of the day. The 850mb thermal ridge ahead
of the clipper is forecast to extend from near Kansas City up across
northern Missouri into west central Illinois and down across central
Missouri...and there should be good mixing according to forecast
soundings. Expect our warmest temperatures in the low to mid 70s
across those areas. Moisture will be somewhat lacking as the front
moves through, but guidance is printing out some light QPF Sunday
evening. Went ahead and threw in some slight chance for showers to
cover this eventuality.

Monday and Tuesday look quiet in between system s with an upper
level shortwave ridge building overhead with temperatures near...or
slightly above normal. Medium range guidance is advertising another
longwave trof to dig into the eastern CONUS Wednesday and hanging
around through the end of the week. The cold front moves through
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely and temperatures
fall to a bit below normal for Thursday and Friday with a continuing
slight chance of showers behind the front Wednesday night and
Thursday due to steep lapserates and strong mid and upper level lift
as a series of shortwaves ripple across the area in strong northwest
flow. ECMWF and GFS are pretty different out next Saturday with
respect to the synoptic pattern, but it should be warmer than the
previous two days as the surface ridge will be further east allowing
for some return flow back into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Primary concern is winds, with winds diminishing
around sunset, or between 01 and 02z, going light and variable
later tonight with passage of a surface RIDGE, but already
increasing and going gusty again by late Sunday morning with
another favorable setup. Looks like widespread gusts of 30+ mph at
the TAF sites with potential for gusts to 40-45mph at UIN.
Marginal LLWS conditions with a more unusual setup possible just
beyond the valid period Sunday evening (but inside of KSTL`s) and
will get a second look for the 06z issuance.

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Little change in forecast through the next 7 days. Only concern
overnight may be some patchy frost in far northeast Missouri with
temperatures falling into middle 30s. Thermal axis shifts over the
region on Sunday in approach of a weak cold front. Result will be
breezy southwest winds and well-above normal temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s. Fire weather will be elevated Sunday afternoon
as strong mixing provides relative humidity values falling into the
25-30 percent range, along with gusty winds and dry fuels.

A cooler day is expected on Monday as an upper trough dives into the
Ohio Valley, ushering in cooler and drier air upon northeasterly
surface winds. This slight cool down is short-lived as upper level
ridging builds into the Plains on Tuesday ahead of the next upper
trough. Moisture will rapidly return to the area Tuesday afternoon
with highs warming into the lower 70s in the western forecast area. A
cold front will move through the CWA Tuesday evening/night, bringing
the next best chance for precipitation in the form of thunderstorms.
Limited instability and timing of the convection should help mitigate
some severe weather potential, but strong shear will exist so will
need to closely monitor setup as system evolves. Scattered showers
may persist into Wednesday before the trough shifts eastward, with
surface high pressure building into the area Thursday into Friday.
This will spell a cooler and dry period for the area before
temperatures gradually rebound for next Saturday.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next hour or so, then will
gradually switch to the south/southwest through the overnight hours.
Winds will pick up out of the southwest shortly after sunrise to
around 25 to 35 kts. Expect those winds to relax shortly after sunset
Sunday evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
636 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Main concerns in this time frame are on winds/relative humidities
and temperatures Sunday afternoon and corresponding fire weather
concerns. Overall, confidence level high with sensible weather
impacts.

Quiet and dry weather will be the rule through Sunday. The gusty
winds this afternoon will diminish quickly this evening as a surface
ridge of high pressure builds into the region from the west. The
ridge axis quickly moves east of the area late tonight and Sunday
with winds coming around to the south on its back side. Before that
occurs across the eastern Ozarks may see some patchy frost late
tonight. Low level warm advection will help temperatures warm into
the upper 60s to middle 70s Sunday afternoon. Pressure gradient
again tightens with deep mixing once again and expect south to
southwest winds to pick up with gusts to 25 to 35 mph once again.
This combined with relative humidities bottoming out in the 25 to
30 percent range will lead to elevated fire weather concerns once
again Sunday afternoon and may approach Red Flag criteria in some
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Northwest flow pattern continues on Monday with a dry cold frontal
passage during the morning hours, with cool high pressure nosing in
from the north in the afternoon. Core of the high remains well north
across Great lakes region. Coolest readings will be across central
Missouri where afternoon highs will be in the 60s, while far
southwest Missouri will likely rise into the lower to middle 70s.

Shortwave trough then translates across the northern Plains Tuesday
and Tuesday night and into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region
on Wednesday. This will drag a north/south oriented cold front into
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Pressure gradient really tightens up on Tuesday ahead of
the front and wouldn`t be surprised if we hit wind advisory
criteria across western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Deep
moisture will be lacking ahead of front and thus instabilities
looks rather weak, with GFS only showing upwards of 100 to 150
j/kg of most unstable CAPE. So no severe weather expected with any
of the activity.

System clears the area later Wednesday with a return to the
northwest flow regime that has been so common as of late.
Temperatures cool behind the front on Thursday with highs just in
the 50s to lower 60s, but then return to more seasonal levels Friday
and Saturday.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will quickly become light and variable this evening
as the sun begins to set. However, gusty south winds will pick up
tomorrow morning, potentially gusting over 30 mph at times.

Skies will remain clear as high pressure shifts overhead.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

VFR through the period with gusty west to northwest winds. Wind
gusts will approach 40kts during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Winds will subside after sunset. A surface ridge
will then move across the region tonight, causing a period of
lgt/var winds followed by a shift to southerly winds late in the
TAF period.

Kanofsky

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 37 72 52 62 / 0 0 5 5
Quincy 31 71 45 56 / 0 0 20 5
Columbia 34 72 50 65 / 0 0 5 5
Jefferson City 34 73 52 66 / 0 0 5 5
Salem 31 67 50 61 / 0 0 10 10
Farmington 33 69 51 66 / 0 0 5 5

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight. Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest
this afternoon with wind speeds ranging from 15 to 30 kts. Winds
will subside this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Southerly winds will return and increase Sunday as the
high pressure system moves off to the east.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
249 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Forecast generally on track going into this afternoon. However
issued a Red Flag Warning for south central Missouri where fire
weather conditions will be most critical. Gusty westerly winds up
to 35 mph will gradually shift to the northwest as a secondary
cold front drops southward. Minimum relative humidity values this
afternoon will range from 20 to 30 percent.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Deep northwest flow continues aloft across the area this morning,
with temperatures falling into the 30s under clear skies. Patchy
frost will remain possible through daybreak, especially within
sheltered valleys.

Another day of seasonable temperatures and northwest winds is
expected today. Winds will become rather gusty by afternoon, as a
dry cold front passes through the area. With a dry airmass in
place, these winds will lead to elevated to significant fire
weather conditions across the CWA. This will especially be the
case over south central Missouri, where the highest winds and
lowest RH will be co-located.

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Much warmer conditions are then expected Sunday, with highs
warming into the 70s as winds become southerly at the surface.
Moisture will be slow to return to the area, resulting in another
day of widespread elevated fire weather conditions.

Monday is expected to bring another dry frontal passage, likely
leading to a decent temperatures gradient from north to south over
the forecast area. Winds will become southerly again on Tuesday,
boosting temperatures over the western CWA into the 70s.

Our next chance of rain then looks to move into the area
Wednesday, as a couple of strong shortwaves again carve out deep
northwest flow across the central and eastern portions of the
United States. A lack of quality moisture ahead of this system
should keep any severe weather threat at bay, with just rain and
general thunder expected.

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Quiet weather conditions continue into the start of this weekend as
vort max associated with the previously discussed upper-level trough
axis pushes off eastward and dry PWATs keeps the forecast area precip
free. Clouds are hard to come by in this pre-dawn morning, only to be
seen across portions of northern MO. Thanks to northwesterly flow
today, temps will top out around normal for early April and won`t be
quite as cold tonight. A beautiful spring day is in store.

Southerly flow returns overnight Saturday out ahead of the next
frontal boundary, allowing for highs Sunday to soar well into the
70s. Cool front will cross the region late Sunday and while moisture
still looks to be lacking to allow for widespread mentionable PoPs
with the boundary, the GFS and NAM is hinting at northeastern MO
possibly seeing some showers. Have therefore introduced slight
chance PoPs across the far NE but am not jumping on the bandwagon
just yet to bring mentionable PoPs any further south or west for this
forecast issuance. This could change as the next model runs will
allow inclusion of some additional high-res models to compare to.
Thermal profiles indicate the precip to fall in the form of rain,
should any fall.

The next opportunity for decent PoP chances arrives with the
crossing of a cold front late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Neutral
trough axis will be transitioning into a negative tilt as it
traverses through. Enough instability should be present to allow for
thunderstorm activity but it is still too far out to nail down
specifics. Higher shear values appear to trail behind the better
instability and moisture transport so severe potential looks limited
at this time, unless the appropriate parameters can coincide with one
another.

Vort max riding along the backside of the trough Wednesday night into
Thursday could bring one more shot of precip to the area if the GFS
proves to be true. Otherwise, benign weather looks to prevail as the
week concludes. Seasonable temps can be anticipated for the latter
half of the upcoming week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
620 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Main concerns today will be windy conditions and elevated fire
conditions. For the fire concerns...see the fire weather section
below.

A shortwave trough will drop out of Canada into the western Great
Lakes today. Its associated surface low will help tighten up the
pressure gradient across Missouri and Illinois today which will
cause very windy conditions. Expect mainly sunny conditions in
addition to the forecast soundings showing deep mixing up to 800mb,
so there should be gusts on top of the already strong sustained
winds. Will need to expand the advisory westward to included some
Missouri counties including the St. Louis metro area based on the
newest MOS guidance and mixing down RAP winds.

Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front
causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection. Highs
are close to a a mix of GFS/NAM MOS temperature guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

(Tonight through Monday)

Have gone with a freeze warning for tonight over parts of west
central and south central Illinois. Upper trough and associated low
pressure will move quickly east this evening and surface ridge will
move across area overnight. With clear skies and there being a
period of light winds, still expect areas of frost to develop. Not
sure however how widespread the frost will be as the ridge will move
off to the east by 12Z, and winds will already turn out of the south
which may inhibit some frost formation. However, still expect lows
to reach 32 or lower over west central and south central Illinois by
late tonight, so went ahead and issued a freeze warning in these
areas.

Still looks Sunday will be much warmer as winds will turn out of the
southwest ahead of this next cold front which move through the area
on Sunday night. With mixing up into the 900-800mb layer and plenty
of sunshine, still expect highs to range from the lower 60`s from
south central Illinois to the lower 70`s over northeast and central
Missouri. Both the NAM/GFS show that cold front passing through the
area on Sunday night with closer to normal temperatures on Monday.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Not much change to going forecast as the upper flow becomes more
amplified during the period. Trough over the northern Plains on
Tuesday will dig southeastward and become a deep trough over the
eastern CONUS by Thursday with large ridge over the west. In the
meantime, it still appears that the GFS/ECMWF are in decent
agreement that the trough and its attendant cold front will pass
through Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday, so will continue with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Chance of
showers will linger into Wednesday night before turning dry late in
the week.

Tuesday will be relatively cool in the southeast flow from the
receding surface high before we get warmer ahead of the cold front
on Wednesday. Then temperatures will begin to cool off again
underneath the upper trough.

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

We will have an elevated fire danger both today and on Sunday for
low relative humidity values...dry fuels and windy conditions.
Forecast fuels are expected to be in the 9-10 percent range today
which is what they fell to yesterday according to the RAWS
observations. Relative humidity values are expected to fall into
the 25-30 percent range across all but south central Illinois
today and tomorrow. Winds are expected to be out of the west
between 10 and 25 mph with higher gusts today. They are expected
to be out of the southwest tomorrow between 10 and 20 mph.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis
MO.

IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette
IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-
Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1016 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PRETTY LARGE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL BE WINDY AND WARM TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH
COLDER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THAT FRONT. VERY GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MID-WINTER THAN
EARLY SPRING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NEAR THE REGION
LATE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO BLENDED IT`S OUTPUT INTO
THE FORECAST.

AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THUS FAR
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING. AS IT PROGRESSES EAST, IT WILL
TAP INTO A LITTLE BIT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTH/EASTERN VERMONT. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOES SOME SURFACE
CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG FROM THE RUTLAND AREA SOUTH. 12Z ALBANY
SOUNDING INDICATES THAT WE WILL NEED SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING
THE LOWER 70S TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING. GIVEN ALL OF THAT, IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY T-STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. EVEN
THEN THE CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW AS PRETTY THICK CLOUD COVER
WILL RESTRICT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH MORE.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, THEY ARE TRICKY. THINK BTV HAS ALREADY
REACHED OUR HIGH OF 66F. AS RAIN MOVES IN, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF. THEN WE`LL HAVE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY, THOUGH IT`S NOT A SUBSTANTIAL ONE. FOLDED IN
SOME RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES FROM THE HI-RES MODELS TO
TRY TO CAPTURE ALL THE VARIABILITY. IN GENERAL, 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR HIGHS, TO LOWER 70S DOWN IN THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY.

INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART IT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 431 AM EDT FRIDAY...ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
COLD FRONT AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PROVIDING LIFT TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CHANGES COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S...BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING RATHER BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THUS IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 431 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY FOR
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EVENTUALLY THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND EXPECTING ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN BY THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR TODAY IN RAIN SHOWERS
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER FROPA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...VFR WITH MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS

00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO GUST OVER 40KT.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/DEAL
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

640 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER ON
THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST TO SOME AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR NEAR DAYBREAK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE LIFTING
NE TONIGHT. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
BOUT OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. A LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT WILL MAINTAIN MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES. THUS...WILL INCLUDE 100 PERCENT POPS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
CONVECTION TRAINS/PERSISTS. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AND POOR LAPSE RATES. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STILL WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 KT...SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND THICK CLOUDS IN CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM AND
VERY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BALMY
NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S
INMOST LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...LASTLY ALONG THE COAST.
THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND IS OFFSHORE. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA ON INCREASING WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVE...SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR WITH CLEARING LIKELY HOLDING OFF
LONGEST AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING SUN AND CLEAR SKIES
SUN NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
DROPPING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SAT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ON SUN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHICH
WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO 10+
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA...AS WILL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR
MIDWEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HIT THE FREEZING MARK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PLAN TO ADD PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUE NIGHT-
WED MORNING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARDS 70 ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THAN THE ONE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO A BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE. ANOTHER
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING
INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING FIREWORKS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SPORATIC STRIKES. PRECIPITATION INDUCED
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS WELL MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE CONVECTION TO THE COAST
BY 04-05Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. SATURDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY....A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT.
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE W...VEERING TO NW. THE
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO N DURING SUN AND NE SUN EVE BEFORE BECOMING
ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SUN...TRENDING TOWARD SE AND
S. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER INTO
SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER IN OFFSHORE FLOW SUN...2 FT OR
LESS SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH 4-5
FOOT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM SHORE AS A RESULT OF
15-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

630 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF NEXT
BATCH OF CONVECTION APPROACHING E NC FROM S CAROLINA. USED TOA
TOOL TO DETERMINE ARRIVAL...WHICH APPEARS TO MOVE INTO SW ZONES BY
AROUND 01Z AND WORK NORTH AND EASTWARD THEREAFTER. HAVE AN INC
POP TREND THROUGH THE EVENING BECOMING CATEGORICAL ALL OF E NC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AT PRESENT THOUGH WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND HT FALLS ALOFT OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
ACTUALLY INCREASES SO RETAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...HIGH RES MODEL SUITE INDICATE A BACKING
OF SFC WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT SO AN ISO TORNADO
THREAT STILL LOOMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY
SHOWS THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 1.60 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN NC, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SPC MESOANALYSES
PWATS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.

YESTERDAYS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUITE AND SOME GLOBAL MODELS
PERFORMED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC COINCIDENT WITH SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSION ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER BATCH OVER GA/SC ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO MATCH TRENDS WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING WHICH
YIELDED LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MAY STILL BE A
BIT OVERDONE THIS EVENING PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, BUT EXPECT
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NC FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z AND HAVE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE.

BETTER FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG
VORTMAX OVER EASTERN NC AND MODEST DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JETSTREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN ZONES LATE. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR OVERNIGHT, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 40 KT AT
06Z TO AROUND 70 KT BY 12Z WHILE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
DIMINISH TO AROUND 100-200 M2/S2 LATE. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BIGGEST
THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WITH PWATS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT, LOWS IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
OFF THE OBX COAST BY 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH EASTERN NC BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MIDDAY AS
PRECIP AND BEST FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. MODEL BLEND
SUGGEST AN END TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 21-00Z. COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING 1355-1370 METERS, YIELDING MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS COOLER WEATHER
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PRODUCING RAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 70S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING USHERING IN
SOME RATHER COLD AIR FOR EARLY APRIL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH LOWS MID 30S INLAND TO MID 40S OUTER
BANKS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE
SPEED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AND
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS
WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND
THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV. LATER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND WITH IT A DROP
INTO THE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR RANGE ESP TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT
WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
VFR ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION.
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE 5-8 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT
SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ADJUSTED THE
ENDING TIMES OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR
RIVER TO BETTER CORRESPOND WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 25 KT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND ALSO BECAUSE DURATION BETWEEN
CURRENT GUSTY SW WIND EVENT AND POST-FRONTAL NW SURGE IS GREATER
THAN 12 HOURS. SCAS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST).

NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LIGHT NW WINDS BACKS TO
SW AND INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON TUESDAY. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL/SGK
MARINE...CTC/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

418 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT TAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO OVER 1.60 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NC, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE SPC MESOANALYSES PWATS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES WELL OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS
THE PIEDMONT OF NC.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN OFF THE
OBX COAST BY 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH EASTERN NC BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE DAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MIDDAY AS PRECIP AND
BEST FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. MODEL BLEND SUGGEST AN
END TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z AND OFF THE COAST BY 21-00Z.
COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAINING 1355-1370 METERS, YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND
CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS TOWARDS
THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO FALL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN
JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR.

NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

312 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE DOWNEAST CARTERET TO CENTRAL OUTER BANKS THIS
MORNING, AND SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS LINE AS SEVERAL WXFLOW SITES
HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT OR STRONGER WITH THIS LINE AND A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN HOW THE LINE IS TRAINING OVER HATTERAS TO RODANTHE.
MORE RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT IS MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RAIN NEAR CAPE FEAR, WHERE THE SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS FOR ADJUSTING
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS AND TWEAKING POPS TO COINCIDE WITH RADAR
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
UPSTATE SC AND GA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS
MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING
COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S
INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT
GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...AS OF 200 PM
FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE
SOUTH...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE EWN
AND PGV TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32
RUNWAY AT KEWN AND THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 KT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL WATERS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OFF OREGON INLET. MINIMAL
CHANGES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. SEAS CONTINUE 4-7 FT NORTH
TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH TODAY
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NWPS
INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH
WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE/PAMLICO
RIVERS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG/SGK
MARINE...CTC/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

209 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE DOWNEAST CARTERET TO CENTRAL OUTER BANKS THIS
MORNING, AND SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS LINE AS SEVERAL WXFLOW SITES
HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT OR STRONGER WITH THIS LINE AND A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN HOW THE LINE IS TRAINING OVER HATTERAS TO RODANTHE.
MORE RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT IS MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RAIN NEAR CAPE FEAR, WHERE THE SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS FOR ADJUSTING
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS AND TWEAKING POPS TO COINCIDE WITH RADAR
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT
GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE
BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT PREVIOUS FCST GENERALLY ON
TRACK. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SAT NIGHT-MON
AND AGAIN TUE-WED.

SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT IN
LIKELY RANGE FOR SAT MORNING...DROPPING TO CHC IN AFTN THEN DRY
FOR SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
US OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING AFTN...FOLLOWED BY DRY SECONDARY
FRONT SAT NIGHT ASSCTD WITH UPR TROF PASSAGE. LATEST GDNC
INDICATES STRONG TO SVR TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR SAT AS
WDPSRD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SAT
MORNING...AND FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AFTN WHICH
WILL LIMIT FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC
AS GFS/NAM MOS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED TEMP RISES DURING DAY
AND KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 70...WHILE EC MOS IS SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST BLEND OF LOW-MID 70S. DRY AND COOLER
SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOW-MID 40S.

SUN-MON...CAA WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING...THEN ABATE SUN AFTN AS
SFC HIGH RIDGES ACROSS AREA FROM W. HIGH WILL BE OVER AREA SUN
NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MON AS CLIPPER SHRT WV APPROACHES FROM
NW. BELOW NORMAL SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY.
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60 SUNDAY...REBOUNDING TO LOWER 70S MONDAY
EXCEPT 60S OBX. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN 40S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF THE UPPER MID-WEST WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AND BOTH HAVE FRONT OFF COAST BY 12Z TUE. MSTR WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS IN 20-30% RANGE FOR MAINLY
MON NIGHT. INCREASING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S FOR TUE. QUITE
COLD TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING FROST THREAT. GFS EXTENDED MOS IS
COLDER WITH SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL NC WED MORNING AND
INDICATES LOWS INTO UPR 20S FOR COASTAL PLAINS. EC IS NOT QUITE AS
COLD WITH SFC HIGH FARTHER N...BUT STILL INDICATES LOWER 30S PSBL.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS TO 33-37 MOST INLAND SECTIONS AND
LOWER 40S OBX. HIGH PRES MOVING OFF COAST WED AFTN WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO LOWER 60S INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US
WITH RESULTANT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
TAPPING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...AS OF 200 PM
FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT
BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE
SOUTH...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE EWN
AND PGV TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32
RUNWAY AT KEWN AND THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY SAT MORNING WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AND BECOME ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH PREDOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ROUGH AND UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FCST DURING PERIOD. STRONG SCA TO POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE FORCE
WINDS (MAINLY IN GUSTS) FROM THE SSW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THEN CROSSES THE WATERS
LATE SAT. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 7 TO 10 FEET INTO SAT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS SAT IF GALE FORCE WINDS
MATERIALIZE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT
OR SAT EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW 15 TO 25 KT. WINDS TO
FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SUN NIGHT AND
MON LOOK LIKE THE BEST TIMES DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...THOUGH SW WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY MON. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID-WEST SUNDAY WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY...PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NNW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AND INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SGK
MARINE...JBM/SK/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1058 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE DOWNEAST CARTERET TO CENTRAL OUTER BANKS THIS
MORNING, AND SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS LINE AS SEVERAL WXFLOW SITES
HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT OR STRONGER WITH THIS LINE AND A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN HOW THE LINE IS TRAINING OVER HATTERAS TO RODANTHE.
MORE RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT IS MORE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RAIN NEAR CAPE FEAR, WHERE THE SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS FOR ADJUSTING
HOURLY WX ELEMENTS AND TWEAKING POPS TO COINCIDE WITH RADAR
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT
GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE
BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT PREVIOUS FCST GENERALLY ON
TRACK. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SAT NIGHT-MON
AND AGAIN TUE-WED.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRED MVFR CIGS CONTINUES ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS RTES AFTER 12Z THROUGH MID-DAY AND EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. PRED VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOVES TO THE EAST BUT A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG DYNAMICS
COULD ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. STRONG SW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GUSTS AROUND
25-30 KT EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

743 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES
TO BRING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY OREGON
INLET SW ACROSS HAVELOCK TO SWANSBORO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ASSOC WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. UPDATE MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TWEAK TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GA IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES
EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING
INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIP BUT IT GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN
50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO
WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP IF THE INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRED MVFR CIGS CONTINUES ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS RTES AFTER 12Z THROUGH MID-DAY AND EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. PRED VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOVES TO THE EAST BUT A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG DYNAMICS
COULD ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. STRONG SW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GUSTS AROUND
25-30 KT EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
LATEST OBS INDICATE GENERALLY SSE WINDS 15-25 KT...HIGHEST OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 4-7 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH TODAY WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NWPS INITIALIZE A LITTLE LOW
AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA
ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

508 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GA IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES
EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING
INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRED MVFR CIGS ACROSS RTES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS RTES
AFTER 12Z THROUGH MID-DAY AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
PRED VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP MOVES TO THE EAST BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG DYNAMICS COULD ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STRONG SW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
REGION.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS INDICATE GENERALLY SSE WINDS
15-25 KT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 4-7 FT NORTH
TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH
TODAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
NWPS INITIALIZE A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1232 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

RAISED WINDS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON TO BLEND WITH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO
INCREASED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE MID CLOUD SHIELD
MOVING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN. HOURLY TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON TRACK
WITH ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 13 UTC. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00 UTC THIS
EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD CHANCES FOR MORNING SNOW
NORTH AND EAST A BIT AS SNOW HAS BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...IS THE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 3
CORRIDOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITHIN THIS AREA
CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONTINUES TO COVER AND HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS AT JAMESTOWN NEAR/AROUND 06Z
SATURDAY...WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MAKE A DECISION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH FROM CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA
WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT RACING
FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED
THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER
TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WHICH IS DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTS IN 25 TO 30 PERCENT AS THE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BY 06Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
30KT-35KT BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z SATURDAY WILL ENSUE FROM THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM AND NOTORIOUS
STRONGER GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25KT TO 30KT AND
AROUND 40KT-45KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 06-12Z
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM
FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRIEFLY RESULT COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN
H85 COLD POCKET WEDGES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED
BEHIND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER
AN EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT PER GFS/ECMWF. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS
SHOWALTER INDICES OF -2C AND 500 J/KG CAPE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR ALL
COINCIDE DURING THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA WHICH BLENDS IN WITH GRAND FORKS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT
TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TRANSITORY
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE MID CLOUD SHIELD
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AFT
00Z AND AT KJMS AFT 03Z.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025.

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

852 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD CHANCES FOR MORNING SNOW
NORTH AND EAST A BIT AS SNOW HAS BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING OVER
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID DAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATER TODAY...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

630 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD CHANCES FOR MORNING SNOW
NORTH AND EAST A BIT AS SNOW HAS BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH LCL IFR VIS IN -SN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-MORNING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID DAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY RETURN THIS
EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025.

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

323 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING. MVFR
CIGS AT KMOT WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR BY 11Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OF BETWEEN 20KT AND 35KT FROM 21Z
FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025.

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS/JJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1135 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AND LOCAL RADAR SHOW A FEW MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES LINED UP NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM MINOT SOUTH
TO BISMARCK...AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO FORT YATES. PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES PER WEBCAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD...NOW THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WHICH OUTLINES THE
ABOVE. THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSSHORT CONTINUE TO PUSH AND END THE
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH
THAT TREND WHICH IS REPRESENTING THE CURRENT SCENARIO WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE RAP...HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR ALL APPEAR TO BE ASSIMILATING EVENING
RADAR TRENDS ACCURATELY AND WITH A SUPPORTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE BACK-
GROUND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST QG FORCING AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THEY ALL SUGGEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WE THUS UTILIZED
A TIME-LAGGED CONSENSUS OF THAT GUIDANCE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 08 AND 12 UTC AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT DUE
IN PART TO THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
AS EVIDENCED BY ANOTHER SET OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED IN OLIVER COUNTY BETWEEN 0200 AND 0230 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS UPDATE FOCUSED ON MINOR REFINEMENTS TO POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND
EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. THE BAND
OF RAIN AND MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS FROM MINOT SOUTHWARD
TO GARRISON AND ELGIN AT 23 UTC IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...IT WAS OUTPACING THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST A BIT. INTERESTINGLY...THERE WERE A FEW...MAINLY IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST ND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NONE HAVE
BEEN DETECTED SINCE 2140 UTC AND THE WEAK SBCAPE SHOWN BY THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS OVER THAT REGION IS WANING. THUS...WE REFRAINED FROM
ADDING ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

FOLLOWING TWO FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TRACKING RATHER QUICKLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS PRODUCED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SO FAR TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY EARLY EVENING. A SECOND FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...WAS
KICKING UP SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL TRACK
THIS AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE HRRR POP TRENDS...
BUT HAD TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS ITS MOVING A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR TIME LAG ENSEMBLE.

FOR THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WIND GUSTS EARLIER
TODAY AROUND 55 MPH WERE SEEN AT HETTINGER. WINDS NOW FALLING TO
THE MID 30S FOR GUSTS AND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

ON FRIDAY...THE PRECIP WILL END BY SUNRISE. WILL STILL HAVE A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH FRIDAY 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH JUST A SMALL HINT OF CAPE ON
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT
THIS TIME BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A MENTION.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...DO NOT SEE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT WINDS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KBIS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH
10Z FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR BY 11Z FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20KT AND
35KT BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 06Z SATURDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1045 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS THE DEEP LOW TRACKS EAST
AND THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD IN. WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO TRACK INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
BUT HAVE DROPPED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE. STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY THRU LATE EVENING. BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SRN OHIO.
THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THRU LATE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. STRONG
CAA WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED
FREEZE WARNING WHERE IN COUNTIES FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEGAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH. JUST TO THE WEST THERE HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. EXPECTING THESE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO SLOWLY MAKE THERE WAY INTO OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LAPSE RATES
ACTUALLY REMAIN RATHER STEEP EVEN AS THE SUN SETS DUE TO THE
STRONG CAA. ALSO LOOKED AT THE 1.5 PV SURFACE ON THE RAP AND IT
SHOWS THE 1.5 SURFACE DOWN TO 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT ON THE GRADIENT. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUITE.
HAVE ALSO KEPT A WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR A BIT AFTER THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AS SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FALL. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING START OFF
COLD NEAR MINUS 10... BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL KICK IN WITH 850 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO 8
OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALSO ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE FROM AROUND 1270 M IN THE MORNING TO 1330 M BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULARY
DIFFICULT BUT HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON VALUES OF
THE 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

SUNDAY EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIP FORMING
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
STARTING PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR 3Z AND PUSHING ALL
PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. PWATS WITH THE LOW ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE AROUND 0.85"... VIA NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS... WITH
WEAK TO MODEST OMEGA VALUES. THE WEAKER OMEGA VALUES AREN`T
SURPRISING AS EVEN THOUGH WAA IS STRONG AT THE TIME VORTICITY
ADVECTION IS NEUTRAL TO ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. MONDAY
AFTERNOON PVA STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SO DOES STRONG CAA
SO OMEGA VALUES ARE VERY WEAK WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THE
CANCELING OF THE LIFT. MONDAY EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALLOWING THE AREA TO FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH QUIET/COOL WEATHER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MUCH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY
WILL BE SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN IN FAVORED DRAINAGE
AREAS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL OHIO NEAREST THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK
TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 40S ON TUESDAY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG S/W TROUGH TO
DIG INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AFTN SENDING ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT NOW LOOKS WEAK-
MODERATE SO THUNDER POTENTIAL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT RAIN DOES LOOK LIKELY.

BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AMIDST STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL SET UP YET ANOTHER LIKELY
ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING INTO -8C TO -10C. IT`S A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD GIVEN
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW...LIKELY SOME INSTBY-DRIVEN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS
COULD BE SNOW FRIDAY SO RUNNING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AS
TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AT PEAK HEATING AND IN THE 30S
MORNINGS/EVENINGS.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSCOIATED
WITH THIS LOW HAS SWEPT EAST THRU THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN.
STRONG WEST WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES.
IN SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER SHOWERS END THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLOUDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE. SW WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

853 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO TRACK INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
BUT HAVE DROPPED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE. STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY THRU LATE EVENING. BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SRN OHIO.
THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THRU LATE EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
STRONG CAA WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THEREFORE HAVE
CONTINUED FREEZE WARNING WHERE IN COUNTIES FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
HAS BEGAN.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FALL. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSCOIATED
WITH THIS LOW HAS SWEPT EAST THRU THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN.
STRONG WEST WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES.
IN SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

719 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH. JUST TO THE WEST THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. EXPECTING THESE STRONGER WIND
GUSTS TO SLOWLY MAKE THERE WAY INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY
REMAIN RATHER STEEP EVEN AS THE SUN SETS DUE TO THE STRONG CAA.
ALSO LOOKED AT THE 1.5 PV SURFACE ON THE RAP AND IT SHOWS THE 1.5
SURFACE DOWN TO 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT
ON THE GRADIENT. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUITE. HAVE ALSO KEPT A WIND
ADVISORY GOING FOR A BIT AFTER THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FALL. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSCOIATED
WITH THIS LOW HAS SWEPT EAST THRU THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN.
STRONG WEST WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES.
IN SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ091>093.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ091>093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
094>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1147 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER WILL MAKE A COMEBACK OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD BLUSTERY WIND AND EVEN SOME
ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-80.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. MDT
GUSTED TO 48KT/55MPH THIS PAST HOUR. FARTHER WEST THUNDER SNOW
WAS OBSERVED IN THE LAURELS DOWN INTO THE VICINITY OF ALTOONA.
THERE IS STILL OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED QUICKLY...WITH THE LOWEST PRESSURE AT
10PM IN THE VICINITY OF LANCASTER. A LOOK AT THE MESO ANAL 925MB
ISOTHERMS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF SEG
DOWN TO JUST EAST OF HGR.

THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM
BACK INTO EASTERN OHIO SO WE MAY NOT BE QUITE DONE WITH THE
INSTABILITY. THE CORE OF BIGGEST PRESSURE RISES IS STILL OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH RES NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DRAGGING IT
THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 07-12Z.

FROM EARLIER...

MODELS AGREE IN TRACKING A STRONG UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND AN
ISALLOBARIC MAXIMA OF 13-16MB/6HR RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALIGN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONCURRED WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH IN UPGRADING THE WIND ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH
SEEMING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET.

THE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK WILL HELP BRING ABOUT A SHORT PERIOD OF
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 8C/KM AND THE OLD FASHIONED TOTAL-TOTALS AROUND 60 SUGGEST WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER STORMS...RAIN TO
SNOW?? ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE TO PAVE
THE WAY FOR ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR TO POUR IN WITH RAIN MIXING AND
CHANGING TO SNOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PRODUCING A SWATH OF LATE SEASON SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 3+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NY BORDER COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6. A
WINTER WX ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WARREN EAST THROUGH
POTTER AND TIOGA COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY RELAXES IN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WE WILL ENJOY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE WAVE TRAIN.

A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
NOT TOP 40 SUNDAY...SOME 15-20 DEG COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW QUICKLY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY EVENING
DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE
STREAKING EWD THRU OH VLY SUN NGT AND ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON MONDAY.

ANOTHER STRIPE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES WITHIN ZONE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME AREAS OVER
NORTHERN MAY PICK UP UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW. PCPN SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. PCPN WINDS DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY MON NGT INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT -20F
BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CANADA BY 07/12Z
WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS. 02/00Z MODEL DATA NOW SHOWS SECONDARY LOW FORMATION
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR SPILLS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY FRIDAY. MAX PCPN APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED ALONG OR OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE CHILLY WX ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY
SHORT DURATION COOL DOWN FRI-SAT.

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES AND ASSOC COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SNOW/LOW VSBYS TO KBFD AND KJST AT 03Z. RADAR
TRENDS AND NR TERM MDL DATA SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ARND
06Z...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. LATEST
NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS BRIEF SHSN/LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAOO/KUNV/KIPT JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF BTWN 04Z-06Z.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...DRYING EFFECT OF DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD YIELD
VFR CONDS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW. ALL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE GUSTS TO ARND 50KTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RUSHES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WNW WINDS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES. SNOW/IFR VSBYS APPEAR LIKELY AT KBFD SUN EVENING
AHEAD OF LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.

THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. GUSTY WINDS/SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ010>012-017>019-041-
042-045-046-049>053.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ006-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004-005.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1020 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

WINTER WILL MAKE A COMEBACK OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A COLD BLUSTERY WIND AND EVEN SOME
ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-80.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. MDT
GUSTED TO 48KT/55MPH THIS PAST HOUR. FARTHER WEST THUNDER SNOW
WAS OBSERVED IN THE LAURELS DOWN INTO THE VICINITY OF ALTOONA.
THERE IS STILL OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

FROM EARLIER...

A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
NOT TOP 40 SUNDAY...SOME 15-20 DEG COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE LOW PRES AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GRT LKS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS TO KBFD AND KJST THIS
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WARMER TEMPS SHOULD CAUSE PRECIP TO
FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT JUST BEFORE
THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF SOMETIME BTWN 02Z-05Z.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 00Z-03Z
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...THEN ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. ALL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE GUSTS TO ARND 50KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.

THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. GUSTY WINDS/SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

825 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO THE LAURELS AS
OF 7PM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST OF THE VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE
REGION WITH A PANOPLY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM WIND TO SNOW AND
EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE RAP SHOWS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ALREADY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
MY FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE CAPE IS MEAGER AT BEST...AND WE LOST
THE SUNSHINE...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
STARTING TO MIX DOWN.

THE COLD FRONT IS TIMED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD RACE EASTWARD TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SERN ZONES BY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY. MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR IS SET TO POUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
NOT TOP 40 SUNDAY...SOME 15-20 DEG COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE LOW PRES AND ASSOC COLD FRONT
TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GRT LKS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS TO KBFD AND KJST THIS
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WARMER TEMPS SHOULD CAUSE PRECIP TO
FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/LOW VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT JUST BEFORE
THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF SOMETIME BTWN 02Z-05Z.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...PM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS KBFD.

THU...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS. GUSTY WINDS/SHSN POSS LATE W MTNS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ010>012-017>019-041-042-045-046-049>053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ006-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004-005.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

740 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO THE LAURELS AS
OF 7PM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST OF THE VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE
REGION WITH A PANOPLY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM WIND TO SNOW AND
EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
NOT TOP 40 SUNDAY...SOME 15-20 DEG COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RUSHES IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WNW WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS NORTHERN PA.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...NO SIG WX.

THU...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

549 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE ALLEGHENIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL
CLIMATE NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY MILD START TO APRIL 2016 WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE L50S TO M60S...OR +20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG SW
LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO
CENTRAL PA ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS/MSTR FLUX ANOMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING E FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

09Z RADAR TRENDS ARE FOLLOWING PREVIOUS THINKING IN A SW-NE
ORIENTED PCPN AXIS FILLING-IN ACROSS THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND SHOW A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN AXIS THRU 18-21Z BEFORE
THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA. THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
ESCAPE PCPN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH HIGHER PROBS FOR SHOWERS AND
FEW TSTMS BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE MRGL/ISOLD
SVR TSTM RISK TO THE E OF THE US15/I78 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE
KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS SLOWING TREND TO CFROPA WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN
PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID THE HRRR LOOKS DISORGANIZED WITH
A MORE COHERENT SIGNAL PERHAPS EVIDENT IN THE WRF-ARW/NMM. FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED A TIGHTER NW-SE GRADIENT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS IN THE 12-21 UTC TIME WINDOW.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE FAR NW AND SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER NW PA. MODEL CONSENSUS
FOCUSES RAIN TO THE E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR ALONG SLOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE 00Z NAM AND TO LESSER EXTENT 21Z SREF SHOW MORE QPF
FURTHER TO THE WEST /VS. CONSENSUS/ OVER SCENTRAL/SERN PA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS AND ONLY MENTION SCHC
RAIN OVER THE FAR SE. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK COLD ENOUGH IN THE NW
MTNS TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TNGT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLC BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OF -2.5 TO -3SD MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH
VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY THE SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD FROM
SRN LWR MI ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING A SWATH OF EARLY SPRING SNOW ACCUM
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS/POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
4 INCHES PROJECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE. WHILE THE HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY APRIL USUALLY IS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUM...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MAX
QPF IS AT NIGHT WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE VS. DURING THE DAY. THE
OTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE SNOW IS THE WIND...WITH PEAK GUSTS
LIKELY MEETING ADVISORY LEVELS. STRONG CAA WILL TEAM WITH PRES
RISES TO PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
BOTH IMPACT WEATHER RISKS/THREATS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW ACCUM AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SFC RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SECOND CLIPPER SFC LOW
QUICKLY ENTERS THE PICTURE DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STREAKING EWD FROM THE
OH VLY ACROSS CENTRAL PA SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. ANOTHER STRIPE
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN FAVORABLE FGEN ZONE ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA
FOR ACCUMULATION FOCUSED AGAIN OVER NORTHERN PA. TIMING OF MAX QPF
WITH THE 2ND WAVE IS LESS FAVORABLE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
LOOKS QUIET HAS THE HIGH MIGRATES OVER PA AND OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST BY WED NGT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE APPALACHIANS. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN AT LONG RANGES SO CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN ON THURSDAY IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM ON TUESDAY WITH -10 TO -20 DEGREE
DEPARTURES FROM THE MEAN BEFORE MODERATING SOME INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
--SHRA FELL APART AS THEY MOVED THROUGH BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO BFD SHORTLY. EARLIER TS OVER OH HAS DIED
BUT SHRA CONTINUE. WILL KEEP TS OUT FM BFD TAF FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHRA MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
STRONG LLJET IS CAUSING LLWS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 45KT
JUST 1500 TO 2000 FT ALOFT. MAGNITUDE OF THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HIGHEST IN SHRA...AS 36KT GUST AT KCAK INDICATES. OTHERWISE
WINDS MAY SLACKEN AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES. THE LLJET DOES
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SLIDES TO THE EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHRA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 07-09Z AT MOST SITES - PUSHING THRU RAPIDLY
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. TSRA LATE FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN
IN THE SERN TERMINALS MAY BE STRONG/GUSTY WITH A MRGL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS THERE. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VFR IN THE
WRN/CENT TERMINALS. BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREATE SHRA
AND COULD BRING BACK FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

THE COLD AIR WILL BE INTRODUCED IN A FEW WAVES...GRADUALLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
SAT EVENING AND NIGHT. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR STEADY
SNOW FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AXIS OF THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH ON SAT NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SHSN MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
IFR POSS AM...THEN IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUBSEQUENT DETERIORATION.

SAT PM...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SN NW HALF. GUSTY NW WINDS AREA WIDE.

SUN...BLUSTERY. MVFR CIGS AREA WIDE. IFR CIGS/SHSN POSS NW.

SUN PM-MON...CHC OF RAIN/SNOW...ESP NORTHERN PA.

MON PM-TUE...GUSTY N WINDS/LOW CIGS PSBL. IMPROVING LATE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1251 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...FROPA IS MOVING ACROSS THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH...EXPECT NORTHERLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW IFR CIGS STILL LINGERING AROUND KHRL AND KBRO BUT THIS
WILL NOT BE FOR LONG AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. OVC MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING BREAKING INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NE
WIND.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS FOR TODAY
AND THE MARINE ZONES. HRRR IS SHOWING A TREND OF INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE GULF WATERS AS THE GRADIENT MOVES QUICKLY
SOUTH. BUILD SEAS A BIT MORE FASTER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA IS IN EFFECT EARLIER TODAY OVER THE
GULF BUT FOR THE LAGUNA KEPT ADVISORY THE SAME AS DO NOT
EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH HAS PUSHED GRADUALLY SOUTH
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLD DECKS
FILLING IN OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
FORMING UP. THIS MEANS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDMORNING. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO PLACE THE VSBYS AND CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE CURRENT
TAF SET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND
SOUTH TX PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR LRD EXTENDING EAST
NORTHEAST UP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. THE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE THIS
MORNING WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF CONV HAVE STARTED FIRING UP
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED. THE NEXT QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THE
CONV BE TODAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING
SHOWS PRETTY HEALTHY CAPE VALUES >3000 J/KG. HOWEVER THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING EVIDENT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
ALSO THE EARLY TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE RGV
WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE LOCAL INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAPE VALUES
WILL BE STEADILY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY INCREASING THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. ALL SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS FOR THIS MORNING. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE IN COMPARISON TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL
NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THIS TREND.

ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL BE STARTING UP LATER TODAY AS THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW INCREASES...THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO WARM UP THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS PRETTY WELL. AFTER TODAY HOWEVER THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND THE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING CAA. THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS ARE IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT WITH THE MET NUMBERS SHOWING A COOL
BIAS. SINCE THE MET IS THE OUTLIER WILL GO CLOSER TO A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ESSENTIALLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER NORTH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AIR BECOMING DOMINANT. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR AS IN PLACE HIGH PRESSURE MODIFIES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BACK IN PLACE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ON.

OVERALL IT WILL BE A SLOW WEATHER WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY THEN THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE WEST...SO
THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE CWA EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER DUE TO
MOISTURE INCREASE AND A WIND SHIFT TO EAST ON THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA NEAR THE
COASTLINE THIS MORNING SHOWS PRETTY CALM WINDS AND SEAS AS THE PGF
RELAXES A BIT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST
TOO LONG TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE MARINE AREAS LATER
TODAY. AS THE PGF PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXPECT THE
MARINE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE REACHING SCA LEVELS PRETTY
QUICKLY. THE STRONG POST FROPA PGF WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SAT AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE TX COASTLINE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SAT
NIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA HOWEVER...SO THE FEW DAYS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK WILL PROMISE BETTER CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. NOT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WILL
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE PLAINS. EVEN SO...THE RESULT WILL BE ONLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/55

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1223 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...MAY HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT KALI AND KCRP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL AM EXPECTING VFR WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
CIGS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NE/NNE AND GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST PART
OF THE EVENING...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. WINDS TAIL OFF WITH NO GUSTS MAINLY AFTER
02/06Z. SHOULD SEE NO CIGS AND NO WIND GUSTS (MAYBE A FEW GUSTS AT
KCRP) BY SATURDAY AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AS FRONT IS COMING
DOWN AND WINDS ARE INCREASING. THINK MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS AND IN THE GULFMEX...SO
LOWERED POPS A BIT. HRRR WAS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES
THROUGH A PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. IN SHORT...MADE SOME CHANGES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS (SURFACE AND SATELLITE) AS WELL AS MODEL
TRENDS. MADE SOME SECOND PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS TOO...WILL LEAVE THE
REMAINING PERIODS ALONE FOR NOW.

MARINE...WILL PUT SCA OUT A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AS WINDS
OVER MARINE INTERESTS ARE GUSTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS RIGHT NOW AND NO
REASON TO THINK THAT THEY WILL DECREASE. WILL KEEP THE GALE
WARNING TOO...AS NEW NAM IS SHOWING GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
SOME AREAS (RUC13 WAS SHOWING EARLIER AS WELL). ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT BUT DID KEEP THUNDER ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT AS
MUCH WITH UPPER SYSTEM EXITING AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION.

MARINE...BASED ON UPCOMING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FORECAST 4 KM
MODEL WINDS...WILL GO WITH A SCA FOR THE MARINE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW...AS WILL LOOK AT THAT A BIT
CLOSELY. PREVIOUS LOOK AT HRRR DATA HAD SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A
LOT AS HAVE SEEN THE HRRR OVER-DO THINGS LIKE THIS AT TIMES
(SOMETIMES DOES WELL TOO). THUS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCES
GOING FOR NOW...AND LOOK BETTER AT IT FOR THE 1030 AM PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST AND COULD IMPACT THE VCT TERMINAL...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAFS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
AT CRP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS BECAME
STRONG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER
80S AROUND LAREDO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO CAA AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS. LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

MARINE...AREAS OF FOG...WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN AREAS...HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE MARINE ZONES. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY OBS AND
WEBCAMS ALONG THE COAST. PUT OUT A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS. NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER
THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN BAYS. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD
BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL
US. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DONT EXPECT
ANY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST...LOW 80S
EAST. FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. TIMING NOT TOO FAR
OFF BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF THIS MORNING WITH THE GFS ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER...WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AS WE
SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BUILD UP SOME MOISTURE BY THEN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW HAVING RETURNED ON MONDAY. WITH CURRENT FRONT TIMING...WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 53 73 54 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 73 48 72 48 76 / 30 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 80 53 74 52 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 77 49 74 50 79 / 10 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 74 53 72 57 74 / 30 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 74 48 74 48 79 / 10 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 51 73 51 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 73 56 72 58 74 / 20 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.

GW/86...AVIATION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

950 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS FOR TODAY
AND THE MARINE ZONES. HRRR IS SHOWING A TREND OF INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE GULF WATERS AS THE GRADIENT MOVES QUICKLY
SOUTH. BUILD SEAS A BIT MORE FASTER AS THE WINDS INCREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA IS IN EFFECT EARLIER TODAY OVER THE
GULF BUT FOR THE LAGUNA KEPT ADVISORY THE SAME AS DO NOT
EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...60

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/55

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

930 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AS FRONT IS COMING
DOWN AND WINDS ARE INCREASING. THINK MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS AND IN THE GULFMEX...SO
LOWERED POPS A BIT. HRRR WAS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES
THROUGH A PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. IN SHORT...MADE SOME CHANGES
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS (SURFACE AND SATELLITE) AS WELL AS MODEL
TRENDS. MADE SOME SECOND PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS TOO...WILL LEAVE THE
REMAINING PERIODS ALONE FOR NOW.

.MARINE...WILL PUT SCA OUT A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AS WINDS
OVER MARINE INTERESTS ARE GUSTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS RIGHT NOW AND NO
REASON TO THINK THAT THEY WILL DECREASE. WILL KEEP THE GALE
WARNING TOO...AS NEW NAM IS SHOWING GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
SOME AREAS (RUC13 WAS SHOWING EARLIER AS WELL). ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT BUT DID KEEP THUNDER ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT AS
MUCH WITH UPPER SYSTEM EXITING AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.

GW/86...SHORT TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

755 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION.

.MARINE...BASED ON UPCOMING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FORECAST 4 KM
MODEL WINDS...WILL GO WITH A SCA FOR THE MARINE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW...AS WILL LOOK AT THAT A BIT
CLOSELY. PREVIOUS LOOK AT HRRR DATA HAD SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A
LOT AS HAVE SEEN THE HRRR OVER-DO THINGS LIKE THIS AT TIMES
(SOMETIMES DOES WELL TOO). THUS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCES
GOING FOR NOW...AND LOOK BETTER AT IT FOR THE 1030 AM PACKAGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 53 73 54 76 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 71 48 72 48 76 / 50 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 82 53 74 52 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 79 49 74 50 79 / 20 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 73 53 72 57 74 / 40 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 75 48 74 48 79 / 10 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 80 51 73 51 78 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 74 56 72 58 74 / 30 10 10 10 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO PORT O`CONNOR.

GW/86...SHORT TERM

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
FALLING AS SNOW.

THE POSITION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES INVOF NOAM MAY SHIFT A
BIT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT PATTERN WL PRIMARILY FEATURE A RIDGE
NR THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN STATES. THERE WL
BE MORE VARIABILITY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LNGWV PATTERN. WE/LL
START OUT THE FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE...GRADUALLY LOSE
AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN HAVE THE PATTERN UNDERGO
REAMPLIFICATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PERSISTENT NWLY UPR FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BRIEF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN
THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PCPN TO RESULT IN AOA NORMAL AMNTS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN WI. NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY WITH LOCALLY BUT
BRIEF HIGHER PRECIP RATES. OTHER LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WILL LIKELY SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA...AND POISED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE IN THE
DOWNSLOPING AND EASTERN WI AREAS. THEN CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COMPACT
YET POTENT CLIPPER DIVES INTO THE STATE. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS CLIPPER...SO SHOULD SEE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR
BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...FOLLOWED THE MESOMODELS AND NAM FOR TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL TAKE IT FROM NEAR MEDFORD TO
SHEBOYGAN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG FGEN JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WILL LIKELY CREATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ROUGHLY FROM MERRILL TO MANITOWOC.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY NARROW...SO AMOUNTS MAY SHIFT
NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK. BUT WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8 C/KM...A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF 50-100MB
DEEP...MAY SEE LOCALLY BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH PER
HOUR. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WILL SHOW 2-3 INCHES IN THIS SNOWFALL
AXIS...BRINGING AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE I39/ROUTE
51 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE STRONGER SPRING SUN...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
DURING THE MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED OR SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 09Z. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG/GUSTY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY DUE TO THE WIND AND SNOW...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE ARND THE TIMING...TYPE...
AND AMNT OF PCPN. SOME FLURRIES LEFT OVER FM SYSTEM NUMBER ONE
COULD STILL BE AFFECTING THE FAR E AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM
PART OF THE FCST. SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT OF N-C WI ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...QUIET WX IS EXPECTED SAT NGT AS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS ACRS THE AREA.

PCPN CHCS WL INCR QUICKLY SUNDAY. THEY MAY TAPER OFF OVER THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST
PCPN WL ARRIVE AND WHEN IT WL DEPART...DIDN/T FEEL WE REALLY HAVE
THE FCST SKILL TO SUB-DIVIDE POPS BEYOND 12 HRS IN THIS SITN. THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTED A BIT S FM WHAT WAS EXPECTED YDA. THE
FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD STILL WARM INTO THE 40S...BUT
THE BULK OF THE AREA WL STAY IN THE 30S. ADJUSTED FCST TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE SNOW. CURRENT ESTIMATE IS THAT WE COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES
OVER ABOUT THE NERN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WL DROP SEWD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. SINCE THERE WL PROBABLY BE A FRESH SNOWCOVER ON THE
GROUND...IT WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD SPOTS IN N-C WI TO DROP BLO ZERO MON NGT IF
SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH. STUCK WITH SINGLE DIGIT (ABV ZERO)
MINS FOR NOW.

THE SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WL
BE LARGER AND MV MORE SLOWLY THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. THE OVERALL
TREND ON THE GUIDANCE WAS TO WEAKEN THE NWD PUSH OF WARM AIR AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE SYSTEM/S TRACK...
BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WL PROBABLY STILL BE ABLE TO DRAW ENOUGH
WARM AIR NWD TO RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING AS RAIN.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FOX
VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER
TO ALL RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK. BRIEF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT TEMPS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...LEAVING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT. THATS WHEN A POTENT YET COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHER END WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI...WHILE THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE IS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN WI. THE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY...AS NORTHWEST INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ005.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ010-018-030.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1037 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR/RAP COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE
SHIFTING EWD FROM NRN IL WITH SECONDARY TROUGH/SFC/850 FRONT
HEADING SEWD FROM WC INTO NC NE WI. BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
HEADING TOWARDS SRN WI. AT THIS TIME RAP SOUNDINGS AND WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AS THIS MOVES THROUGH
SRN WI THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING. 850 COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A TIME THIS EVE. LOW
LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD BRIEFLY BEFORE NEXT MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM
TAKES AIM. SFC LOW PROGGD FROM NRN WI ERLY SAT TO LWR MI BY 18Z
SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS LEFT
BEHIND BY THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SO FROZEN PRECIP TYPE LOOKS GOOD.
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE IN THE NE CWA SO THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THERE
LOOK GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH SOME
IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES. OTHER
STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER IOWA...AND CLEARLY SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. SO
THE PRECIP ACROSS IOWA SHOULD GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT
MAY JUST CLIP AREAS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. OUR MAIN FOCUS TODAY
WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT DROPPING IN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT IS
RATHER STRONG WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
VERY SKINNY CAPE TO JUSTIFY AN ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AND WOULDN/T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS. NOTHING SEVERE.
MOISTURE DOES SEEM TO CONNECT RATHER DEEPLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ALONG
THE FRONT...SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH FROPA.
PRECIP DURATION SHOULD ONLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST. WE SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIP CLEAR THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 2 PM WITH CLEARING
REACHING MILWAUKEE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THINGS DRY OUT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER FAST
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DROP INTO
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND THIS COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF MADISON AFTER ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE AND TIGHTLY WOUND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK AND TEMPERATURE SETUP FOR THE DAY. ONLY THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL MAINLY LESS THAN ONE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...EXPECTING PRECIP
TYPE TO REMAIN SNOW. SHOULD BE SOME WET BULB COOLING AS THE SNOW
FALLS TO HELP KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

LOOKS LIKE A STRATIFORM TYPE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON PER PRETTY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE THE SNOW GIVEN THE FORECAST SURFACE
TEMPS...THE TIME OF THE YEAR...AND THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE
DAY. EVEN SO...DID GO WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH
AND LESS AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY DECIDE
WHAT SURFACES THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH THE LAST DAY OR
TWO...SO LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF NOTHING CHANGES...LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINLY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE WAVES THROUGH THE
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE WARM UPS AHEAD OF THE WAVES...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THEM. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH EACH WAVE...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL AS
RAIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING...LIFTING CONDITIONS TO THE VFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND MOISTURE LINGERS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING...AND THIS COULD TAKE THINGS DOWN TO IFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AT KUES/KMSN. SO...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY/VARIABILITY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS COULD REACH KMSN
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND KMKE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL DROP IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT SNOW. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 7 AM SATURDAY
FOR THE TAF SITES. TOTAL ACCUMS WOULD BE AT AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHER
TO THE NORTH.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST MN TO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING GALE
FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PRE/PROCEED THE
PERIOD OF GALES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ643>646.

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1105 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
WINTRY.

THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A STG
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE ARND 100W. THE WRN RIDGE
IS NEAR ITS PEAK FOR THIS AMPLIFICATION CYCLE. SOME FLATTENING OF
THE FLOW WL FOLLOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS IS A COLD AND FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPLY A NEARLY CONTINUOUS FEED OF
CANADIAN AIR MASSES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES
OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THAT KEEP AMNTS IN CHECK...WITH NR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXISTS...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.
A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED OSHKOSH TO GREEN BAY.
MEANWHILE...RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO HAVE TAKEN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXIT NORTHEAST WI EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THESE FEATURES IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND ALSO CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS LAKE HURON
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER DOOR COUNTY. ONCE
THE PRECIP EXITS...MODELS ARE QUITE QUICK IN BRINGING IN CLEARING BY
MID TO LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THERMAL
TROUGHING AND NORTH WINDS...HAVE A HARD TIME ENVISIONING IT
HAPPENING THIS QUICKLY. THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS ARE THE BEST
BETS...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE DIVING INTO
NORTHWEST WI. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL
WI BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MODELS PROJECT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE IN RELATIVELY SHORT SUPPLY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WI BEFORE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WILL SHOW UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE FORECAST. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID
40S OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALLS
ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS AFTN. THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE
SINCE YDA HAS BEEN TO DIG THE SPEED MAX/SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
TRACKING ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT FARTHER S. THAT OPENS THE
DOOR TO GETTING A LITTLE MORE SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. A COUPLE
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE NE
2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. IT ALSO CUTS DOWN A LITTLE ON THE WIND
POTENTIAL...AS THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STG WIND GUSTS
APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT THROUGH TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA.
SATURDAY WL STILL BE A WINDY DAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
AOA 40 MPH NOW LOOKS LOWER THAN IT DID YDA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WL ARRIVE
/AND EXIT/ A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
TRACK OF SYSTEM IS A LITTLE FARTHER N...AND COULD CUT ACRS THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF WARM- UP OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS PACIFIC AIR
IN THE WARM SECETOR OF THE CYCLONE BRIEFLY SHIFTS THROUGH.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGER SLOWER MOVG CYCLONE
THAT REACHES THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC TO
DRAW AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA AS IT
APPROACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL STILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLDS AROUND WITH SOME SCT MVFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER 15 UTC. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD
BRIEFLY BRING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18 UTC.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ESB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

431 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTH WINDS
THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE RACES OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE EAST ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A LARGE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT....DRIFT EAST AND SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL INTO MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...STRONG AND DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA...AND
WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS.

WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS NOW -5 TO -10 DEGREES C/ AND
DYNAMIC COOLING TAKING PLACE...PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. SNOWFALL IS MAINLY OCCURRING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING PRECIP FROM
OCCURRING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE BEST
SNOWFALL WILL BE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND
DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY VARY BASED ON LOCATION
AND ELEVATION. SNOW MAY NOT STICK QUITE AS WELL AS IT WOULD IN THE
CORE WINTER MONTHS DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER...SO LOOK FOR
ACCUMULATION TO BE HIGHER ON GRASSY...ELEVATED...AND NON PAVED
SURFACES.

IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE KEPT ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS
LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE ALSO ADDED SRN LITCHFIELD
AND TACONICS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH
2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...AS BASED ON LATEST 3KM
HRRR.

JUST A COATING TO AN INCH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE THE HRRR HAS BEEN
OVERDONE ON QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS MORNING SO FAR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
MAY BE LIMITED TO A BRIEF PERIOD JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN THE
GREATER ALBANY AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...NW WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT MIXING TO 700 HPA AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 MPH OVER THE REGION...WITH GUSTS 40-60 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY ON SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT ONGOING
WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES. AREAS THAT SEE SNOW
MAY SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH WINDS
STARTING TO PICK UP AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN SNOWFALL IS TAPERING OFF.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE REGION...AND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH THE WIND.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER LOOK TO OCCUR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTN. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO THE NW
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAUSING SOME LAKE EFFECT...BUT THE BULK OF
THIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD GFS/NAM/GEM ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. AT
500 HPA A SCREAMING NW FLOW WILL COVER THE NE USA...IN RESPONSE TO
A 24C BAROCLINIC ZONE BTWN THE NY/QB BORDER AND I80. DURING THE
EVNG A WK RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE RGN...HOWEVER A FAST MVNG SFC
WAVE RACES EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ROUGHLY I80
CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO NY/PA BORDER IN GEM.

NOT MUCH OF SHORT WV HWVR RGN IS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE ZONE OF
A 100KT 300HPA JET...WITH THIS MAJOR SFC FRONT AND SFC WAVE PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE RGN FM
W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE BTWN I80 AND
I90 AS WILL THE BEST QPF.

THE OVERNIGHT BURST WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW...PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND END FM NW-SE AS SFC LOW DEPARTS LATE MON MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.
A TRAILING 500 HPA SHORT WV WILL MOVE INTO NYS MON AFTN...PROVIDING
SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

TOTAL QPF ON MOST MODELS 0.20 TO 0.40 WITH SOME ISOLD 0.6 AMOUNTS
IN HIR SOUTHERN TRRN. WHICH WOULD IMPLY 2-5 INCHES WITH ISOLD 6
INCHES. WWD HAS RIBBON OF 4-6 IN FM MHWK VLY...N CATSKILLS...CAP
DISTRICT...TWRD W NEW ENG ZONES WITH AMNTS DROPPING OFF N AND
SOUTH OF THAT.

HWVR DURING MON MRNG...AT H850 HPA TEMP REACH 0 C AT LEAST AS FAR
N AS I84/NY SR 17 AND A TAD FURTHER N ON OTHER RUNS. ADD THE
STRONG APRIL SUN...EVEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...AND SOME OF THIS PCPN
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN PARTICULARLY IN S TIER...AND MAJOR S
VLYS...SUCH AS THE HUDSON. ALL IN ALL A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW...ATTM RAIN MIX MAY LIMIT REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SFC LOW...500 HPA SHORT WV AND ASSOC CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL
DEPART QUICKLY MON AFTN. MEANWHILE AT 500 HPA A SERIES OF SHORT
WVS WILL SHARPEN A TROF OVER THE NE USA...WHICH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TUE. AT THE SFC THIS WILL ALLOW A 1030 MB ARCTIC SFC HIGH TO
PLUNGE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON EVNG TO NY/PA TUES
EVNG...THEN SLIDE OFF SHORE WED MRNG.

WITH A 12MB NE SFC PRESSURE GRAD OVER NYS WINDS WILL BE BRISK MON
NT..BUT SHOULD STAY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
FAIR MAINLY DRY PERIOD. AT MOST THERE MAY BE SOME TRRN FORCED
SCT-BKN CU AND SNOW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. BUT THE MAIN FEATURE
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL YO YO AND WINTER HAS ONE MORE PUNCH TO PULL IN
THIS FCST PERIOD.

BY WED ONE TROF HAS EXITED THE E SEABOARD...ANOTHER IS DIVING INTO
THE UPPER MISS VLY...AND A FLAT RIDGE IS OVER THE E USA. THE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND IT BEGINS TO MODERATE AND SET UP AN INCRG
S-SW FLOW OVER EAST USA. ASSOC WITH UPR MIS VLY SHORT WV A SFC LO
MVES NE INTO W GRTLKS...AND PUSHES A WMFNT INTO NYS WED. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WAA CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE FCA...AND -SHRA/SN ARE
POSSIBLE IN N ZONES BY EVNG. TEMPS BEGIN WED QUITE COLD...BUT
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS THINKING REFLECTS THE
SLOWER ECMWF/GEM/WPC E ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS IS FASTER
AND WOULD IMPLY LESS SUNSHINE WED.

WED NT AND THURS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY TRANSITS ACROSS NY/NEW
ENG...WITH AN INCRG THREAT OF SHRA WED EVNG...AND GOOD CHC WED NT
AND THU. TEMPS WILL CONT THEIR UPWARD TREND TO NR NORMALS THU
PRIOR TO CFP THU AFTN. INTO THU THERE MAY BE SVRL NON-DIURNAL TEMP
SITUATIONS...AND WILL HAVE MAX MINS DROP OUT OF 3 HOURS TEMPS IN
GRIDS.

THU NT INTO FRI A SERIES OF SHORT WVS DROP SE FM ONT AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES FRI NT. HERE THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH WPC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

THE GFS STALLS THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THU WELL OFFSHORE. THE
ECMWF STALLS IT JUST EAST OF FCA. BOTH PRODUCE A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENISUS LATE IN EFP...THU FOR ECMWF...FRI FOR
THE GFS BUT WELL OFFSHORE. THE GFS WOULD IMPLY WX OVER FCA WILL BE
DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE CUT OFF SYSTEM. AN UNSETTLED CHILLY PERIOD
WITH CLOUDS AND -SHSN/RA-. THE ECMWF A MAJOR CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
LOW WITH LOTS OF RAIN. GIVEN THAT MAJOR MODEL CONSENSUS HAS GONE
OFF THE RAILS BY THE LATTER EFP ITS BEST TO USE BLEND AND SEE HOW
THIS LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT EVOLVES. BY THE END OF THE EFP WHICH
EVER PATH THE SFC LOW TAKES ITS DEPARTURE IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD SURGE FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH -SHRA/SN AS CUTOFF LINGERS
OVER NE USA.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS PRECIP SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO
SNOWFALL. IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT SHOULD GO
OVER TO JUST SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH...PRECIP WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY FOR KGFL...SO WILL GO WITH JUST MVFR CIGS/VSBY
THERE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING 11Z-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN LINGERING CIGS AT 2500-5000 FT.

BEHIND THE STORM...W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-30 KTS AND GUSTS OF 35-50 KTS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL START AROUND DAYBREAK...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY...AND WILL FINALLY START TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CIGS
WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY AND TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY. SUFFICIENT RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEK TO KEEP FUELS WET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

SOME SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL IF ANY
RESPONSE WILL OCCUR ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TODAY AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS.

APRIL 3RD:

ALBANY NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943
DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891
MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013

GLENS FALLS NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985

APRIL 4TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003
DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975

APRIL 5TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003

APRIL 6TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ047-
051-058-063-066.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
041>043-083-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

417 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE REGION...AND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH THE WIND.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL YO YO AND WINTER HAS ONE MORE PUNCH TO PULL IN
THIS FCST PERIOD.

THU NT INTO FRI A SERIES OF SHORT WVS DROP SE FM ONT AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES FRI NT. HERE THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH WPC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS PRECIP SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO
SNOWFALL. IT MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT SHOULD GO
OVER TO JUST SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH...PRECIP WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY FOR KGFL...SO WILL GO WITH JUST MVFR CIGS/VSBY
THERE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING 11Z-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN LINGERING CIGS AT 2500-5000 FT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TODAY AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS.

APRIL 3RD:

ALBANY NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943
DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891
MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013

GLENS FALLS NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985

APRIL 4TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003
DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975

APRIL 5TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003

APRIL 6TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

345 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE KEPT ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS
...LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE ALSO ADDED SRN LITCHFIELD
AND TACONICS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH
2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...AS BASED ON LATEST 3KM
HRRR.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE REGION...AND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH THE WIND.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL YO YO AND WINTER HAS ONE MORE PUNCH TO PULL IN
THIS FCST PERIOD.

THU NT INTO FRI A SERIES OF SHORT WVS DROP SE FM ONT AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES FRI NT. HERE THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH WPC SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING 11Z-12Z ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN LINGERING CIGS AT 2500-5000 FT.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE SNOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE NEW WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DUE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW...MINIMAL IF ANY
RESPONSE WILL OCCUR ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON ITS WAY AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE STATS.

APRIL 3RD:

ALBANY NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 DEGREES 1943
DAILY SNOWFALL: 11.0 INCHES 1891
MAX WIND GUST: 40 MPH 2013

GLENS FALLS NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 33 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 40 DEGREES 1985

APRIL 4TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: 29 DEGREES 2003
DAILY SNOWFALL: 1.8 INCHES 1955

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1954
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 26 DEGREES 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1965
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 36 DEGREES 1975

APRIL 5TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 15 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES 1995

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 12 DEGREES 1982
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 29 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 17 DEGREES 1964
LO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 35 DEGREES 2003

APRIL 6TH:

ALBANY NY:
RECORD LOW: 14 DEGREES 1943

GLENS FALLS NY:
RECORD LOW: 13 DEGREES 1995

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
RECORD LOW: 18 DEGREES 1982

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

220 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALONG A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL CONTINUE MVG
EAST ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY NY AND SOUTHERN CT AHEAD OF THE
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. WIND GUSTED TO
35-40 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

RAPID DEEP LVL COOLING IS OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
LOW. AT KMGJ...RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW AT 0523Z/123 AM...WHERE VSBYS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 3/4SM.

HRRR SNOW ALGORITHMS FOR THIS EVENT A BIT DECEIVING BASED ON
THICKNESS. SNOW SHOULD NOT OCCUR WITH WET BULB ZERO ABV 3000FT. AS
A RESULT...HRRR INDICATES BASED ON WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT THAT SNOW
OCCURS ONLY ON THE WRN/NWRN FLANK OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER CNTRL CT PER THE HRRR AND 00Z NAM IN A BAND OF STRONG
MID LVL FROGEN...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS YET.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN
CT FROM NEW HAVEN AND EAST AS WELL AS SUFFOLK COUNTY NY ON LONG
ISLAND THROUGH ALL OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AFT 6-8Z WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 KT.

WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE
MVG EAST ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH 08Z.

IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERN
NJ...CT AND LONG ISLAND THRU 12Z SUNDAY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
UNTIL 18Z.

MIXED PCPN AND STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD CAUSE BRIEF WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC
TERMINALS...BUT UP TO 2 INCHES AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS.
.MON...SUB-VFR WITH RAIN FOR KISP/CITY/NJ TERMINALS. MIXED PCPN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ELSEWHERE. SW G25KT AM BCMG NW PM.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW G20KT.
.WED...VFR. SW G20-25KT PM.
.THU...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. S-SW G30KT. CHC LLWS.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ006>008-
010>012.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ009>012.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-
176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
350-353.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/GC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

212 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NUMEROUS SHWRS REMAIN OVER CT. EXPECT SMALL HAIL TO CONTINUE TO
OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HRRR SNOW ALGORITHMS FOR THIS
EVENT A BIT DECEIVING BASED ON THICKNESS. SNOW SHOULD NOT OCCUR
WITH WET BULB ZERO ABV 3000FT. AS A RESULT...HRRR INDICATES BASED
ON WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT THAT SNOW OCCURS ONLY ON THE WRN/NWRN
FLANK OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER CNTRL CT PER THE
HRRR AND 00Z NAM IN A BAND OF STRONG MID LVL FROGEN...BUT DID NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS YET.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AFT 6-8Z WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 KT.

WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE
MVG EAST ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH 08Z.

IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERN
NJ...CT AND LONG ISLAND THRU 12Z SUNDAY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
UNTIL 18Z.

MIXED PCPN AND STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD CAUSE BRIEF WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR NYC
TERMINALS...BUT UP TO 2 INCHES AT KSWF.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

546 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH
GUIDANCE VARIES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TEMPS. SHARP NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WINDOW.

AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY PASS OFF TO THE EAST. FREEZING TEMPS
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH STRONG CAA.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES MAY NOT REACH THE UPPER 20S.
RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TO A RESPECTABLE 10 MPH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS THEN TIGHTEN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM...
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. BUT GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES A SOLID CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL GENERAL BE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
INSTABILITY MONDAY. BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE THE NAM
TENDS TO OVER DO SFC BASED INSTABILITY. ALSO...THE GFS INSTABILITY
IS ONLY MARGINAL AT BEST. WITH DISAGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE STAYED
WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
PLEASANTLY COOL HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND NEAR NORMAL 60S FOR MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS WELL WITH STRONG
RETURN FLOW. EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR COOLER EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE DRY AIR AND AN EARLY NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE COLDER LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR
TWO MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. ALSO...WE MAY SEE NON-
DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT EVEN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY
DAWN MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE
ON AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS ON AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...
BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.

AN LINGERING PRECIPTATION SHOULD END BY LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT TOWARD DAWN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. AT THIS POINT...SOME FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING SUB- FREEZING
READINGS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE COMMONWEALTH.
DEEP TROUGHING WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RECOVER
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 40S FOR MOST BY FRIDAY. SOME OF
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO FAVOR A DIURNALLY LIMITED TEMPERATURE REGIME FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW LIKELY REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER. BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
OR THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO THE BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WEEK AS SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS LIKELY DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...PERHAPS LOWER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING. STILL SEEING A FEW GUSTS
TO ABOUT 20 KTS BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER. OTHERWISE...
LOOKING AT A STEADY 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH
TIME...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP/PG
AVIATION...RAY

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

After an early morning freeze in parts of the region, a sunny and
mild day is expected today. Surface high pressure is centered
almost directly over western Kentucky early this morning. Even so,
winds have been slow to die off, which has kept temperatures above
freezing thus far. Soil temp is 55 degrees at Paducah, which is
probably a factor in the slow decoupling of the boundary layer. The
Freeze Warning may be cancelled a few hours early in some places,
namely the southern Pennyrile region of western KY. Elsewhere,
temps appear on track to fall below freezing in sw Indiana and se
Illinois. Dew points remain in the lower to mid 20s in most
places, which is likely too dry for much in the way of frost.

As the high moves to the east, winds will increase from the
southwest today. The Bufkit momentum transfer algorithm worked
very well with yesterdays wind gusts, so todays wind forecast
will be based on it. Both the nam and RAP Bufkit data indicate
gusts will peak around 30 mph this afternoon in most areas, except
20 to 25 mph in the Pennyrile region.

A second lesser concern is dew points, which tanked lower than
expected Saturday as drier air mixed down from several thousand
feet. Mixing heights will be lower today, but dew points will
likely fall below model guidance once again. This is mainly a fire
weather concern. The gusty winds, low rh values, and drying
fuels will create an elevated fire danger, which will be
addressed with the SPS /special weather statement/.

Tonight will be relatively mild as southwest winds stay up and
clouds start to increase ahead of a cold front. Lows will be
around 50.

A cold front will sink southward across our region on Monday
morning, accompanied by clouds and possibly a few sprinkles.
Moisture will be very limited, so the forecast will be kept dry.
Skies will become mainly sunny in the afternoon with increasing
north winds. There will be a fairly strong temp gradient Monday,
with highs ranging from around 60 along I-64 to around 70 along
the Tennessee border.

A light freeze is possible once again late Monday night. The
primary area of concern is again southwest Indiana and southeast
IL, possibly extending into northwest KY. Patchy frost will be
mentioned in that area, but low dew points and persistent wind
should once again be limiting factors for frost.

Tuesday will be mainly sunny, dry and cool as highs reach only
around 60. Low-level winds will again become southerly Tuesday
night as the next cold front approaches. There is a chance of
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms late at night, moving as far
southeast as the Lower Ohio Valley by Wed morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Forecast issues in the long term include chances for precipitation
that start Tuesday night and lasts through the end of the week.
Frost may also be possible in parts of the forecast area Friday
night.

A storm system will drop south out of the upper level ridge to the
west midweek. Models are in decent agreement showing there will be
enough moisture to include showers across much of the area beginning
Tuesday night and encompassing the entire region Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Models show enough instability to include thunder
during the day Wednesday. While the bulk of the precipitation will
move east of the region Thursday, smaller, weaker disturbances will
keep a chance of precipitation in the far eastern/northeastern
counties through Friday.

Cool dry high pressure drops south across the region to end the week
with dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures with highs around
60. Frost may be possible across the I-64 corridor once again with
lows dipping down into the middle 30s. Temperatures begin a slow
warm up during the weekend.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

High pressure moving across the region will lead to light winds
and clear skies this morning. Southwest winds will then pick up
by midday as the high slides off to the east. Expect gusts 20-30
KTS by afternoon.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-082-
083-087.

MO...None.
IN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for INZ081-082-
085>088.

KY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ014>022.

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...GM/MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 03.00Z
ITERATIONS...HAVE REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG A
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO DETROIT BETWEEN 03-06Z. EQUALLY CONSISTENT HAS
BEEN THE TRAJECTORY AND GLIDE SLOPE OF THE INBOUND ACTIVE
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH THE LEAD ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 850-700MB AXIS
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TRI CITIES/SAGINAW BAY REGION BETWEEN 15-
18Z...THEN LINING OUT DIRECTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB BETWEEN 18-
21Z. THE GOVERNING DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRANSITION
DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO VERY AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT
RISES/RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL RESULT IN A VERY COMPACT...PRISTINE LOW LEVEL THETA
E RIDGE ROCKING DIRECTLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN WHICH CAUSES A
FRONTAL WAVE PIVOT. THE NET RESULT IS THE FORCING TO SHIFT TO VERY
EFFICENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 21-06Z TONIGHT WITH
SOME SEMBLANCES OF DEFORMATION HOLDING ON BETWEEN 06-09Z. THE AREA
WILL AGAIN BE IN A LOW STATIC STABILITY ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...THIS
TIME THERE WILL BE STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH IN THE 900-800MB LAYER AND
IN THE 600-500MB LAYER WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL INVERSION
IN BETWEEN.

THE OVERALL NARRATIVE IS A CLASSIC SPRING TIME FRONTOGENESIS SNOW
EVENT. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH AN
EXTREMELY SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THIS VANTAGE POINT IS EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND
WILL LINE OUT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN GOOD...SUGGESTING THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FROM SAGINAW BAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN THUMB COUNTIES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE...MOST
NOTABLY THE ECMWF (LOW AMOUNTS) WHICH IS COMPLETELY ON ITS OWN
ISLAND...THE HIRES ARW/NMM (VERY HIGH AMOUNTS)...AND THE RAP WHICH
IS A LITTLE NORTH. GIVEN THE COMPACT GRADIENTS INVOLVED AND THE
TIGHT MARGINS...A SHIFT OF 30 MILES WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE
AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE
70 OR 80 PERCENT MARK TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR HURON/TUSCOLA/SANILAC COUNTIES. IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FOR THOSE COUNTIES
WITH 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A 9 HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUSCOLA AND SANILAC WILL LIKELY SEE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTIES. FOR THE COUNTIES
ADJACENT/SOUTH...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT LOOKING AT MORE OF THE 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE. AGAIN...HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL BE IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. WILL ALSO ADD...THAT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THERMAL STRUCTURE...CONFIDENCE
ON LIKLIHOOD/PLACEMENT/EXACT TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN IS LOW ATTM.
HOWEVER FLOW DIRECTIONS COULD BE VEERED JUST ENOUGH IN/AROUND FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO AUGMENT NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
DEPTHS...DID INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR PORTIONS OF ST
CLAIR/LAPEER COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING.

AS FOR WIND...RELATIVELY SPEAKING THE THOUGHT IS THAT WIND WILL NOT
BE A HUGE DEAL HERE BECAUSE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THE SURFACE LOW WERE TO TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH...COULD HAVE SOME WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
SNEAK IN SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR/DETROIT. THE OTHER ITEM IS SOME POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 02-7Z
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I 96. THIS IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST WITH
LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER ATTM. THERE IS SOME VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT IN SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SHOCKINGLY...AGGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
BRING SOME LOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO THE SAGINAW BAY REGION
MONDAY. A FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING UNDER THE ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL YIELD
VERY COLD MIN TEMPERATURES. ATTM..THE FORECAST WILL READ IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BE COLDER IN THE THUMB OVER FRESH SNOWPACK.

RETURN FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR LEAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT HIGH IN COLUMN WHICH BRINGS SOME SATURATION QUESTIONS. IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER STRONG VORTICITY ANOMALY IS ON THE HORIZON FOR
THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A TRANSIENT SYSTEM MOTION. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT...CYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES
BRINGING NUMEROUS/LIKELY POPS TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN IN TIME FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON PRECIPATION TYPE AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

.MARINE...

A PORTION OF THE EXISTING GALE WARNINGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM PORT
AUSTIN DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HURON BASIN. WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE
REGION. THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN
CONTINUES LATER TODAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL START OFF ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION BUT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN EAST ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE DUE TO THE
STORM TRACK. WIND FIELD NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
APPEARS TO KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND WAVES
BUILDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.

.HYDROLOGY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POTENT
THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IN TERMS OF MORE MOISTURE TO WORK...AROUND
0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ALONG AND NORTH OF
M59...AND BETTER ORGANIZED BAND OF FORCING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE PRECIPITATION HENCE THE WIDER RANGE
TO THE TOTALS. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ENTIRELY AS SNOW NORTH OF M59...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST OF THE WATER IN
THE SNOWPACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOULD MELT MID WEEK
RELEASING THE WATER INTO THE WATERWAYS.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

A STEADY WEAKENING IN THE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL THEN DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT
AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD WNW. THE NEXT MAJOR AVIATION IMPACT WILL
BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
MORE STEADY SNOW TO MBS AND POSSIBLY FNT. CIGS AND VISBYS WILL LOWER
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AT
MBS...WITH LESSOR CHANCES AT FNT.

FOR DTW... A DECREASING GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL THEN SUPPORT
STEADILY LOWERING WIND SPEEDS...WITH WINDS BACKING TOWARD THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW SUN/SUN NIGHT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF METRO.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MEDIUM SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM FOR PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ047-048-053-062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ441>443-462>464.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

140 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

TUESDAY...THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WE WARM UP WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INVADING THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MVFR/VFR CIGS/VIS WILL QUICKLY TREND TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS HEADING
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD SNOW SPREADS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1. SOLAR INSOLATION
WILL HELP THE MELTING PROCESS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOWS WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
SNOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ019>022-025>028-031>034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345-346-349.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321-322.

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JZ/JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SWR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

1244 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS OF 05Z. A BAND OF
SNOW WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MOVE IN AFTER
08Z TONIGHT. KINL...KHIB AND KDLH TO BE MOST STRONGLY AFFECTED
WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS FOR NOW AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END FOR EACH SITE...MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. KBRD AND KHYR
WILL ALMOST MISS OUT ON THIS WAVE...WITH THE BETTER SATURATION AND
LIFT NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS. KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...WHEN THEY MAY GET SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND HAVE LEFT THESE OUT
FOR NOW. KHYR IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND AND HAVE
PUT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WHEN IT IS
CLOSEST...WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL. A SURGE OF COLD
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO IFR
AFTER 00Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 21 30 21 31 / 30 30 50 50
INL 16 31 13 31 / 70 80 30 0
BRD 23 43 25 41 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 17 39 21 35 / 20 20 10 10
ASX 18 31 21 31 / 60 60 60 40

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-020-021.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
441 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Top weather concerns for today will be the gusty winds, warming
temperatures, and low RH values for this afternoon. As surface low scoots
past to the north and east later today/tonight, pressure gradient
will be tightening, allowing for southwesterly winds to pickup
substantially out ahead of an associated frontal boundary. Across
northeastern MO where the gradient will be tightest in this forecast
area, steep lapse rates will contribute to mixing down winds aloft.
Forty to almost 50 knot winds appear to reach down as low as 925mb in
NE MO with anticipation that 45mph gusts or so will be possible, all
resulting in the issuance of a Wind Advisory for this afternoon.
Temperatures will soar well into the 70s area-wide with it not being
out of the realm of possibilities to see the first 80 degree day of
the year. For further discussion on fire weather conditions, please
see below.

With the passage of the aforementioned frontal boundary tonight,
can`t rule out the possibility of seeing a few showers pop-up across
northeastern MO. Lackluster PWATs are suppressing decent PoP chances,
although there has been some run-to-run consistency from a couple of
lower-res models in showing that some chance exists over NE MO.
Therefore, have continued with mentionable PoPs there. Temps behind
the front on Monday will be much cooler as compared to today, topping
out closer toward normal for early April.

Southerly flow returns to the region by Tuesday out ahead of the next
system that could bring more widespread precip chances. Deepening low
pressure system will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. As the night wears on, any diurnally-driven
instability will wane and post-frontal shear should combine to limit
severe potential. Additionally, the models are not as aggressive in
showing the attendant upper-level trough becoming negatively tilted
overhead as in previous runs. Still can`t rule out a feisty storm or
two late Tuesday afternoon should storms develop out ahead of the
cold front. Stay tuned as this time approaches.

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Further to the south and east of the Wind Advisory discussed above,
RH values will tank into the upper teens and 20s, prompting the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning in combination with gusty winds.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...lg

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
412 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Main concerns today deal with wind and fire weather concerns. Will
be expanding the wind advisory to add a few counties in northeast
Missouri. Will also be issuing a Red Flag Warning in central
Missouri. For more information about fire weather concern...see the
fire weather section below.

The freeze warning will continue through early this morning over
south central and west central Illinois. Temperatures have already
fallen into below freezing at several observation sites in Illinois
this morning. Temperatures though ought to climb quickly above
freezing this morning as winds have already begun to pick up out of
the south across central and northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois. This is in response to the surface ridge moving off to
the east. Winds will begin to increase later this morning and this
afternoon as a surface low drops southeastward out of the Upper
Midwest. With the pressure gradient tightening and steep forecast
lapse rates to between the surface and the 850-750mb layer, expect
very windy conditions once again today. Expect wind advisory
conditions to start slightly earlier this morning across northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois, and also expanded the advisory
slightly into Audrain and Pike counties in Missouri.

With the deep mixing and southwest winds, still expect temperatures
to see an impressive rebound today. Highs should range from the
middle 60s over south central Illinois to the the middle 70s over
central Missouri.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Still looks like there will be a slight chance of showers this
evening into the overnight hours as a cold front moves across the
area tonight. The best ascent for isolated/scattered showers will
be over northeast Missouri/west central Illinois before it moves off
to the east. Then Monday and Monday night still looks dry as high
pressure moves across the area. Then an impressive trough still
looks like it will drop southeastward through the area on Wednesday.
While there is not much forecast CAPE with it, the should be enough
moisture and ascent move in ahead of its attendant cold front to
bring scattered thunderstorms to the area.

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

The trough that will move through the area on Wednesday will move
east of the area leaving the rest of the period mainly dry. The GFS
and ECMWF are showing the area lying under northwesterly flow aloft
with below zero 850mb temperatures which favors near or below normal
temperatures.

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru much
of the valid period. Primary concern is winds, with light winds
becoming southerly and increasing some late tonight or around
daybreak Sunday and increasing still significantly further by late
Sunday morning with another favorable setup. Looks like
widespread gusts of 30+ mph at the TAF sites with potential for
gusts to 40-45mph at UIN. Marginal LLWS conditions with a more
unusual setup possible Sunday night, but a lingering question on
how much gustiness there will be carrying over into the evening
prevented any mention of LLWS once again and will defer to the 12z
TAF set.

TES

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Will be going with a Red Flag Warning over central Missouri today.
Fuels dried out below 9 percent yesterday at most of the RAWS
observation sites and they are forecast to do so again today. With
temperatures forecast to reach the mid 70s over mid Missouri today
and with dewpoints only in the mid 30s this afternoon, minimum
relative humidity values will likely fall below 25 percent. 20ft
wind values will also likely climb above 15 mph. Outside of the Red
Flag Warning, elevated fire weather conditions are likely over much
of the rest of the area.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
412 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

A cool morning is underway, with light north winds across the
region behind a weak cold front that passed through the area
yesterday. Winds will become southerly by daybreak however, as
surface high pressure retreats to the east/southeast and a surface
low moves southeast across North Dakota.

Winds then become southwesterly and increase considerably into the
afternoon, helping to set the stage for a much warmer day today,
as temperatures warm into the 70s. Little to no moisture return
combined with the warming temperatures will yield afternoon RH
between 20 and 30 percent across the area. This, along with the
gusty southwest winds, will result in Red Flag Warning conditions
north of I-44 this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect
from noon-7 PM.

Temperatures will stay mild tonight, with lows in the 50s. Another
weak, dry cold front will pass through the area late tonight. The
only appreciable affect from this front will be slightly cooler
temperatures on Monday, and a switch to northerly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As mentioned above, temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler
compared to today, especially over central Missouri, where
readings will be knocked back into the mid 60s. Temperatures over
southern Missouri look to again reach the 70s.

Southwest winds will again increase on Tuesday, as a shortwave
digs south across the Plains and surface low pressure develops
over the Oklahoma Panhandle. That wave will force a front through
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This front will
bring our next chance for rain and isolated thunderstorms, though
recent model runs have pointed toward lower QPF, likely due to
lackluster moisture ahead of the system. Instability will be very
limited, and no severe weather is expected.

Temperatures then look to trend cooler for the latter portion of
the workweek into next weekend, as northwest flow remains in place
across the eastern CONUS. In addition to cooler temperatures, this
should also result little to no chance for additional
precipitation through at least Friday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure moving overhead calmed winds this evening. However,
southerly winds will pick up early in the morning, and become
gusty by late morning.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Light variable winds early this morning will become southerly by
daybreak, and then southwesterly and increase considerably through
the morning hours into this afternoon. In addition, warming
temperatures and deep mixing will yield afternoon RH between 20
and 30 percent across most of the area. Winds will be strongest
north of I-44, where Red Flag criteria will be met.

A weak front will pass through the area very late tonight into
early Monday morning, which will result in a change of wind
direction to northerly by morning across the entire area. RH on
Monday will be between 30 and 40 percent, with lighter north
winds.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure moving overhead calmed winds this evening. However,
southerly winds will pick up early in the morning, and become
gusty by late morning.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1141 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Remainder of forecast looks on target, with clear skies and dry wx
thru Sunday afternoon, and a warm day on tap thanks to the SW
winds.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
917 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Remainder of forecast looks on target, with clear skies and dry wx
thru Sunday afternoon, and a warm day on tap thanks to the SW
winds.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
636 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will quickly become light and variable this evening
as the sun begins to set. However, gusty south winds will pick up
tomorrow morning, potentially gusting over 30 mph at times.

Skies will remain clear as high pressure shifts overhead.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
249 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
620 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Main concerns today will be windy conditions and elevated fire
conditions. For the fire concerns...see the fire weather section
below.

Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front
causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection. Highs
are close to a a mix of GFS/NAM MOS temperature guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

(Tonight through Monday)

(Tuesday through Friday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Britt

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE LOCKED ON 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY.
UPPER 60S ARE COMPUTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WRN SANDHILLS. THE
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
FAVOR THE WARMER RAP MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS MT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERHAPS SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. NONE OF
THE MODEL DATA IN THE NAM OR RAP INDICATE ANY TSTM POTENTIAL SO
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BE THE OPERATIVE MODE. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD END THIS EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BACK PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE STRATUS MAY FORM ON THE FRONT. THE SREF SAYS
NO. THE GFS...ECM AND NAM SAY MAYBE. LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARILY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MAINLY A DRY FORECAST. A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
TUESDAY...PROVIDING FOR EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AND WARM AIRMASS TO PROMOTE SEVERAL
PERIODS WHERE LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY WEEK...THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF
A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE. THERMAL ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE 60S. WINDS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AS A NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SFC TROUGH
DEEPENS...BUT PEAK GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 20 MPH RANGE. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO KEEP MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING FIRE HEADLINES MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTORM
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA/LLJ. IF QPF
IS REALIZED...IT/LL BE LIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF
A NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. THE FRONTAL TIMING ALTHOUGH DURING THE
MIDDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE TROUGH...PROMOTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
THUS TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...LOWER 60S SHOULD PREVAIL AS CAA SPILLS BEHIND THE
ADVANCING FRONT. THE SHADING FROM THE CLOUDS...AND THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CREATE DOUBTS ON WHETHER A FIRE HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED. SO WILL NOT ISSUE THE WATCH TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND GUSTS 0F 30-40 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHILE RH LOWERS TO THE 15-25% RANGE.
THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LACKS DEEP
MOISTURE...THUS RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...AND IF RAIN IS REALIZED...ONLY A
FEW HUNDRETHS QPF WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY SO ISOLATED DRY THUNDER IS NOT RULED
OUT.

WEDNESDAY...CAA WILL PUSH HIGHS DOWN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM
RH IS PROGGED TO FALL TO NEAR 20% ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...PROMOTING LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...HOWEVER A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL MORNING WHEN
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUST AROUND 30 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER EXPECTED ONCE THE SUN SETS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH... GUSTING TO 40
MPH ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
SOUTH...25 PERCENT NORTH. WINDS SLACKEN AT SUNSET.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1222 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SURFACE LOW NOW ACROSS WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOP. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
18Z SUNDAY AND REMAIN NORTH OF AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
12Z-18Z SUNDAY. CANADIAN MOSAIC RADARS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH GROUND TRUTH OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS THUS FAR.
THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PRECIPITATION REACHING WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AT THE PRESENT MOMENT. THE
REST OF THE MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE GFS. WILL LET THE CURRENT
FORECAST STAND AND LOOK AT IT FURTHER OVERNIGHT.

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. PRELIMINARY GRID
POPULATION OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR FOR HOURLY/MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...AND THE MET/MAV WIND GUIDANCE...SUPPORT A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LOOK CLOSER BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
DECISION...BUT LEANING TOWARDS UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN OUR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES. BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE...TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.
WE`LL SEE IF THIS IS ENOUGH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. DO
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THIS FLOW MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR NORTH TOWARD 12 UTC. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THIS DRY THROUGH 12 UTC AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR AS SOME MESO-SCALE MODELS BRING THE PRECIP INTO ND A
LITTLE BEFORE 12Z. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DID LOWER SKY
COVER THIS EVENING AND UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GLOBAL...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION ITERATIONS THROUGH THEIR 18 UTC RUNS WAS UTILIZED FOR
NEARLY ALL FIELDS.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS A CLIPPER IN EASTERN
ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A MILD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR FOR
POSSIBLE NORTHERN LIGHTS VIEWING TONIGHT IN LIGHT OF INCREASED
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

A MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT ON A WAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY CLOSING OFF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A WINTRY MIX NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LEADING
PRECIPITATION BAND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
ATOP SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
CENTRAL IN THE DRY SLOT WITH THE COLD POCKET ALOFT. WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KMOT...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 23Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18KT AND 32KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FROM MID MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF
AROUND 35 MPH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT ARE PROJECTED FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS.
TIMEFRAME IS MAINLY MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

COUNTIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INCLUDE GOLDEN VALLEY...
BILLINGS...SLOPE...BOWMAN... STARK...HETTINGER...AND ADAMS
COUNTIES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

211 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS THE DEEP LOW TRACKS EAST
AND THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD IN. WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FALL. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING START OFF
COLD NEAR MINUS 10... BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL KICK IN WITH 850 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO 8
OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALSO ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE FROM AROUND 1270 M IN THE MORNING TO 1330 M BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULARY
DIFFICULT BUT HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON VALUES OF
THE 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR THE
NORTHEAST TERMINALS WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
RETURN FLOW AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS BY 18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODEST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH
SOME DIURNAL COOLING...GUSTINESS WILL BE ERRATIC...BUT WITH GUSTS
IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH MODELS FORECASTING
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. THIS
WILL BRING NON CONVECTIVE LLWS TO THE TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT THE FRONT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED AHEAD OF IT THAT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH A PASSING SHOWER. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-051>055-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

425 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

ALREADY A VERY MILD START TO THE DAY WITH 08Z TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. BIGGEST QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW FAR
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB IN WELL-MIXED AIR MASS AHEAD OF NEXT COOL
FRONT...WHICH IS SLATED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE MIXY DAYS ARE THE TYPE OF SITUATION WHERE THE RAP
DOES AT TIMES PREVAIL WITH REGARD TO WARMING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING
OF AFTERNOON DEW POINTS...AND THUS HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY IN THAT
DIRECTION...THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT SHY OF ABSOLUTE EXTREMES WHICH ARE
5-8F DRIER AND ALSO 5-8F WARMER THAN AVERAGE OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC
RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AT PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS GOING WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S-MID 70S...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY NEARING 25 PERCENT
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 20-30 MPH...SO DAY SHIFT WILL
CERTAINLY WANT TO WATCH TRENDS. REALITY MORE TOWARD THE RAP COULD
INTRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEYOND THE EXPECTED VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MID LEVEL ACCAS
SHOWERS ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
SHOWING BAND OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY SOUTHWEST OF KHON-KFSD-KSPW
LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE
LARGELY INFLUENCED BY FACTORS DISCUSSED WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
ABOVE. MODELS WHICH DO NOT MIX OUT AS EFFICIENTLY INDICATE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WHILE WARMER/DRIER MODELS SHOW
MUCH LESS POTENTIAL. GIVEN THAT WE ARE HEDGING TOWARD THE LATTER...
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT WILL STILL
HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AS SUBTLE WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES START TO COOL IN THE NORTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...AND EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL DIURNAL COOLING TREND
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE WAY TO LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

SEASONALLY COOL START TO MONDAY WILL LIKELY END WITH A SEASONALLY
PLEASANT DAY...AS WINDS WILL OVERALL BE FAIRLY TAME COMPARED TO MANY
RECENT DAYS. LIKELY TO FIND A FEW MORE LINGERING MID CLOUDS HOVERING
THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WELL AS SOME
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING THROUGH/NEAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
HEADING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHARPENS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. INFLUX OF A MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WOULD
MEAN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDER OVER MUCH OF THE PRECIP
AREA...WITH EXCEPTION BY LATE NIGHT OF FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LOBBY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY NON DIURNAL
TREND OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL EMERGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION THREAT EASTWARD FROM THE AREA. TIMING OF
THE UPPER WAVE IS CLOSING ON THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH
THESE DO PROVIDE JUST A BIT QUICKER PROGRESSION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL WORK EASTWARD WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT ALOFT. TIMING OF BOUNDARY IS SUCH THAT COULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN LATTER DAY CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. CHANCE FOR AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY TO BREAK OUT OF CLOUDS A BIT BETTER
WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE WESTERLY AND THUS WARMING TOWARD
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE MORE CLOUDS AND STRONGER AND MORE
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HOLDS THE EAST CLOSER TO 60.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FIND THE STRONG TROUGH WORKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTA...REACHING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN IOWA BY
DAYBREAK. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...AND STRENGTH OF
PV ADVECTION LIKELY TO BRING SCATTERING OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS BACK
TO AREAS NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER DURING THE EVENING...AND THE
ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE NOT LIKELY THAT COOLEST SUBSET OF
SOLUTIONS WILL END UP CORRECT...NAM/ECMWF DO SUGGEST SOME 850 HPA
TEMPS INTO THE WEST COOLING TOWARD -4 TO -6C AND COOL ENOUGH IN
LAYER TO SUPPORT A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW. COMPLICATION WILL BE THE
VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING EVEN DURING NOCTURNAL PERIOD...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP AT LEAST IN THE MID 30S. HAVE THUS MENTIONED
ONLY A MIX NORTH/WEST LATE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY LASTING
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS...WITH 35 TO
45 KNOT WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOWER CLOUD FIELD WRAPPING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE RISES ON THE LOWER SIDE...MAINLY WITH HIGHS
FROM MID 40S IN SW MN TO MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY.

MODELS ARE NOW CONVERGING ON THE ROGUE SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY OF A
SECONDARY CLIPPER WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH MAIN DYNAMICS BRUSHING ACROSS AREAS NEAR/EAST
OF I-29. GFS LEAST IMPACTFUL WITH FARTHEST NORTHEAST PATH TO SYSTEM
MOVING FROM ND TO WI...WITH OTHER MODELS MAINLY ND TO SOUTHERN MN...
ALLOWING STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PV ADVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS
SW MN/NW IA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME CHANCE LEVEL POPS TO THESE
AREAS... AND WITH COMPLEX TEMP TREND ALOFT FIRST WARMING AND THEN
COOLING LATER ON IN NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANY LASTING ACCUMULATION.

IN WAKE...COOLER SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM MID TO UPPER 40S IN
SW MN TO UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT EAST
THAN WEST. EARLY GARDENERS AND THOSE WITH TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE
PLANTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING OVER THE AREA...MANY LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 28 DEGREES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS...
COULD EVEN ALLOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER DIP TO LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WARM HIGHS IN INITIALIZATION GRIDS SEEM TO BE THE RESULT OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL BIAS AND A MUCH WARMER CANADIAN MODEL...SO HAVE AGAIN
SHAVED MULTIPLE DEGREES OFF MODELS...MORE TOWARD SW MN/NW IA THAN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR A RIDE TO THE CREST OF
THE ROLLER COASTER BY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH EVEN A
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
INCREASING GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE A NON DIURNAL TREND AT LEAST AT
HIGHER ELEVATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WITH 60S AND 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY
MORNING...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS A TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

618 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HRLY TEMPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS. SFC LOW
WAS LOCATED NR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AND WL CONTINUE TO MV EAST THIS
MRNG. LGT PCPN HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS FRYEBURG ME
WHICH GEM CONTS TO HV A GOOD HANDLE ON. NO CHGS NEEDED TO MRNG
POPS FOR TDA AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT COASTAL ZONES MAY SEE LGT
PCPN THIS MRNG. LATEST HRRR NOW LENDS CREDENCE TO A POTENTIAL
STREAMER SETTING UP ACRS THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTN SO WL MAKE NO
CHGS TO GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

INTENSIFYING LOPRES IS SITING OVR THE LONG ISLAND SOUND AS OF
07Z. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS EXIST JUST TO THE EAST SO EXPECTATION
IS THAT LOW WL LIKELY SKIRT ACRS CAPE COD THIS MRNG. STRONG S/WV
DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LIFT JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH AND
EAST WITH TIME ACCORDING TO THE PAST SVRL HRS OF WV AND IS
ENTERING NRN NJ. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SNOW ENTERING INTO
SRN VT/NH. 00Z GEM REGIONAL LOOKED TO HV THE BEST HANDLE ON QPF
AND SUGGEST THIS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST THIS MRNG,
THUS HV BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL EXPECTING ONLY MINOR
ACCUMS OF SNOW AS TEMPS AT THE SFC WL BE MARGINAL DRG THE EVENT.

COLD AIR WL DRAIN INTO CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH NEARLY STEADY
OR FALLING TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WL LKLY BE REACHED AT 12Z ACRS THE
NORTH WITH JUST A RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE FAR SOUTH. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTN, WINDS WL
INCREASE FM THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS TO AND ABV 40KTS
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HV ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA BTWN 18Z TDA AND 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
ALREADY GUSTING TO 20KTS IN SRN QUEBEC AND LOPRES HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO INTENSIFY YET WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT LKLY GETTING STRONGER
DRG THE DAY.

LATEST GEM IS INDICATING STREAMERS DVLPNG DOWNWIND OF ST. LAWRENCE
THIS AFTN AND HV ADDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH TDA. NO
ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT WITH GEM PERSISTING THIS BAND THRU THE DAY
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD IN ACCUMS. HIRES-ARW IS THE ONLY
OTHER GUIDANCE INSISTING ON BANDING POTENTIAL.

HIPRES WL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX TO
AROUND 10KTS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WX EXPECTED. SKIES WL BEGIN
TO CLR OUT WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE NORTH
AND ARND 20 ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BRING A COLD DAY ON MONDAY. NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY. A SMALL LOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE IT WILL
BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD. OUR ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD THEN TURN TO RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW, TRACKING TO OUR
WEST, PULLS WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY HEAVY IN SOME AREAS AS THE LOW
REDEVELOPS NEARBY TO THE WEST. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER AIR WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. WITH MORE ENERGY CASCADING INTO THE TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER LOW REDEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
THE AREA WITH SOME SNOW ON SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS OUT OF THE NW WILL
GUST TO NEAR 40KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN LOWER TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY IFR LATE IN
THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THIS MORNING UNTIL 2 AM MON AS
STRONG NW WINDS GUST TO 40-45 KTS AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. EXPECT THAT SCA WILL BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING.

SHORT TERM: A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A SCA AND POSSIBLY A
GALE WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGH SEAS ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TO OUR WEST.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

616 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...

QUIET START TO THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE
LEAD FLANK OF PRECIPITATION NOSES INTO MID MICHIGAN. THE TRACK OF
THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO PTYPE CONCERNS. MBS
WILL STAY IN THE COLD AIR RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH FNT AND PTK IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY. THE DETROIT AREA TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO PTYPE...CIGS WILL BE MVFR/IFR DURING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IFR STRATUS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. VSBYS WILL BE SENSITIVE TO PRECIPITATION
RATES...DROPPING TO LIFR FOR MBS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS EVENING
AND IFR FOR FNT. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT
AND SNOW BAND SET UP.

FOR DTW... WILL BE DEALING WITH VEERING WINDS TODAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES NEARLY OVER HEAD THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT COOLER AIR
STREAMING IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING... MEDIUM BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ047-048-053-062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ441>443-462>464.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through this TAF period,
although strong, gusty winds could impact aviation interests.
Sustained southwesterly winds will likely exceed 20 knots or so with
higher gusts. Once the sun sets tonight, look for these winds to
slacken a bit. Mid-level clouds may move into the terminal areas as a
weak disturbance crosses the region tonight.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Further to the south and east of the Wind Advisory discussed above,
RH values will tank into the upper teens and 20s for eastern KS and
western MO, prompting the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for portions
of the forecast area in combination with gusty winds. Elsewhere,
percentages should bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s where
better atmospheric moisture will be. Although much of the area has
seen a green-up recently, the strong winds anticipated today could
very well cause any fires that develop to spread rapidly. Look for
the lower RH values to exist over eastern KS and far western MO and
the higher wind speeds to dominate further north and east,
particularly where the aforementioned advisory is in effect.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg
FIRE WEATHER...lg

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

VFR conditions will continue through tonight with skies remaining
mainly clear. Brisk and gusty southwest winds can be expected
today with gusts over 25 knots likely. Low level wind shear will
then develop this evening as a low level jet stream strengthens
over the region. A weak cold front will then move into southern
Missouri late tonight with winds becoming light and variable with
the approach of the front.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
604 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

VFR through the period. In general, it will be windy again today
but less so than yesterday, except at KUIN where it will be about
as windy today as it was yesterday. Initially lgt/var or light
southerly winds at TAF issuance will quickly become southwesterly
on the back side of a departing ridge of high pressure, then
speeds increase this morning due to the tightening pressure
gradient ahead of a disturbance which will be approaching the
Great Lakes. Stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface
today, creating gusty conditions which will last until near
sunset. A weak cold front moves across the region overnight,
causing a wind shift to westerly then northwesterly winds by the
end of the valid TAF period. LLWS was added to the TAFs after
sunset and prior to fropa primarily on the strength of the winds
near 1100 ft even though the LLWS calculation technically falls
below criteria.

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
604 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
450 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Further to the south and east of the Wind Advisory discussed above,
RH values will tank into the upper teens and 20s, prompting the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning in combination with gusty winds.
Although much of the area has seen a green-up recently, the strong
winds anticipated today could very well cause any fires that develop
to spread rapidly. Look for the lower RH values to exist over eastern
KS and far western MO and the higher wind speeds to dominate further
north and east, particularly where the advisory is in effect.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
441 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Further to the south and east of the Wind Advisory discussed above,
RH values will tank into the upper teens and 20s, prompting the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning in combination with gusty winds.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
412 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
412 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure moving overhead calmed winds this evening. However,
southerly winds will pick up early in the morning, and become
gusty by late morning.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure moving overhead calmed winds this evening. However,
southerly winds will pick up early in the morning, and become
gusty by late morning.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1141 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Remainder of forecast looks on target, with clear skies and dry wx
thru Sunday afternoon, and a warm day on tap thanks to the SW
winds.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
917 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Remainder of forecast looks on target, with clear skies and dry wx
thru Sunday afternoon, and a warm day on tap thanks to the SW
winds.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
636 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will quickly become light and variable this evening
as the sun begins to set. However, gusty south winds will pick up
tomorrow morning, potentially gusting over 30 mph at times.

Skies will remain clear as high pressure shifts overhead.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
249 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
620 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Main concerns today will be windy conditions and elevated fire
conditions. For the fire concerns...see the fire weather section
below.

Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front
causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection. Highs
are close to a a mix of GFS/NAM MOS temperature guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

(Tonight through Monday)

(Tuesday through Friday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Britt

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

626 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BACK PART WAY INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE STRATUS MAY FORM ON THE FRONT. THE SREF SAYS
NO. THE GFS...ECM AND NAM SAY MAYBE. LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

MONDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTORM
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA/LLJ. IF QPF
IS REALIZED...IT/LL BE LIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED HIGH BASED LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY.

AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST MOVES EAST TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BACK INTO NCNTL NEB. THE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

613 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 04/06Z. SOME MODELS THEN POINTING
TO POTENTIAL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 14Z. HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30KT...STARTING SOUTHWEST AT 12Z...
BUT GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING...
THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

321 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DEEPER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN THE NIGHT THIS
WILL SET UP A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN OPEN
AREAS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND RIDGE TOPS IN THE HILLS...TO AS
LOW AS THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR WILL BE A FACTOR IN HOW COLD IT
GETS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING OF THE
CLEARING...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF ANOTHER FREEZE...SO HAVE
POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALL BUT A FEW COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

AN LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT TOWARD DAWN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. AT THIS POINT...SOME FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS
SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING SUB- FREEZING
READINGS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR
CEILINGS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-086>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JP/PG
AVIATION...SBH

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

...Freeze Possible Monday Night...

A surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure across the TN
valley and southeast US while a 998 mb low pressure was across
western Wisconsin. Visible satellite imagery showed cloud free skies
thanks a rather dry air mass. ILN, BNA and ILX soundings all had
PWATs less than 0.3 inches this morning. South to southwesterly
winds were a bit gusty, but nothing compared to yesterday`s high
wind event. Observations showed gusts in the 15-30 mph range with
temperatures in the 50s.

Forecast focus is on a weak frontal passage tomorrow, followed by
another chance for a freeze Monday night. The aforementioned surface
low will drag a cold front through the forecast area tomorrow. This
system is very moisture limited, saturation is not deep at all and
has weak forcing. The very dry air initially will also work against
precipitation as well. As a result, kept chances in the 20-30
percent range, for mainly east of I-65 tomorrow. Plan on highs to
range from near 60 across southern Indiana to near 70 closer to the
TN border.

High pressure building south out of the Great Lakes Monday night
will bring lighter winds to the area, setting the stage for a
potential freeze for some locations, mainly north of the KY
parkways. The only limiting factor that could keep temperatures
above freezing is strato-cumulus clouds slow to dissipate across the
northern Bluegrass. Soundings from the NAM and RH fields from the
ECMWF hint at this possibility. If skies do clear out, then there`s
above average confidence for sub-freezing conditions. After
coordination with neighboring offices, will issue a Freeze Watch
for portions of the area, including all of southern Indiana and the
northern half of Kentucky counties. Forecast lows 28 to 31 in the
Freeze Watch area.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

The forecast highlights in the long term are precipitation chances
Wednesday/Wednesday night followed by an unseasonably cold period
late in the work week and next weekend.

The synoptic pattern Tuesday is expected to feature a somewhat
progressive upper level pattern with ridging through the central
Plains flanked by troughing over the eastern CONUS and intermountain
west. Surface high pressure, responsible for a rather chilly start
to the day, will be centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Plan on a
seasonably cool day, highs in the 50s, with mostly to partly sunny
skies.

The next storm system comes on Wednesday as a couple waves of low
pressure deepen and move toward the lower Great Lakes. Good moisture
transport, sufficient lift and some weak instability will bring
widespread rain showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two.
Compared to recent runs, this system has slowed down by 3-6 hours,
so the highest chances may come in the afternoon to evening hours.
Good consensus in the model guidance, so POPs were bumped up a bit
higher compared to the previous forecast. The surface front is
expected to come through during the evening or nighttime hours.

Upper level energy arrives during the day on Thursday. The colder
air aloft and forcing for ascent may bring scattered rain showers to
much of the area, so precipitation chances were brought up to near
40 percent. A steady feed of cold advection and passing waves could
cause the rain showers to mix with wet snow Thursday night across
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.

Friday into Friday night looks to be coldest of the period where a
hard freeze may materialize across the entire area. A model
consensus has lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, but this may be too
warm for some areas. Those with agricultural interests should
monitor this time frame closely.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As we sit squeezed between low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and
high pressure over Dixie we can expect brisk southwest winds,
occasionally gusty, this afternoon and tonight. Skies will be clear.

On Monday the Great Lakes low will scoot quickly through the
Northeast and pull its attendant cold front through Kentucky. This
front will switch winds initially to the west and then northwest,
and also will increase cloudiness. For now will keep ceilings low
end VFR, though there is some suggestion they could sink to high-end
MVFR. A light rain shower or two will be possible at SDF and LEX
around midday.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.

IN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

...Freeze Possible Monday Night...

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

The forecast highlights in the long term are precipitation chances
Wednesday/Wednesday night followed by an unseasonably cold period
late in the work week and next weekend.

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As we sit squeezed between low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and
high pressure over Dixie we can expect brisk southwest winds,
occasionally gusty, this afternoon and tonight. Skies will be clear.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067.

IN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Tonight will be relatively mild as southwest winds stay up and
clouds start to increase ahead of a cold front. Lows will be
around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. South
southwest winds gusting up to 22 knots this afternoon will drop
off to AOB 12 knots after 00Z, then swing around to the northwest
AOB 12 knots with the passage of a cold front around 14-15Z.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

455 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN A RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPR
TROF OVER ERN CANADA/THE NE STATES. A CLIPPER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU NRN MN. THE DPVA AND INSENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285K SFC /ABOUT H7-8/ AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX IN
SE CANADA OVERCAME SOME INITIALLY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB AND RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WDSPRD SN OVER UPR MI. THE HEAVIEST SN
UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES FELL IN A WNW TO ENE SWATH OVER THE CWA FM THE
KEWEENAW TO ESCANBA AND MANISTIQUE UNDER FAIRLY SHARP BUT SLOPED H75-
65 FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL OR PRES GRADIENT SHOWN ON
THE 285K ISENTROPIC SFC. NEGATIVE EPV IN THE H7-3 LYR AS SHOWN BY
THE 12Z NAM AND RELATED TO FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALLY HIER AMNTS. VERY DRY
AIR NOTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB LIMITED SN TOTALS OVER THE FAR SRN
CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
ARE MOVING NW-SE ACRS THE CWA...SO THE SN IS DIMINISHING NW-SE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID LVL DRYING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING RELATED TO THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS MORE
PRONOUCNED. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS PRESENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
ARCTIC HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C
AT YPL AND -24C AT CHURCHILL IN FAR NRN MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS TO THE
N OF THE LK IS ALSO RATHER DRY...WITH SFC DEWPTS WELL BLO ZERO.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON GOING WINTER WX
ADVYS/SN TOTALS AND THEN TRANSITION TO LK EFFECT SN TNGT INTO MON AS
THE COLDER AIR TO THE N FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS.

LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE PRONOUCNED DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV AND ANOTHER TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY TNGT...EARLIER EXIT OF
THE SHARPER H75-65 FGEN/NEGATIVE EPV BY 00Z AS WELL AS WARMING CLD
TOP TEMPS SUGGEST THE DIMINISING SN TRENDS WL CONTINUE. BUT ALLOWED
THE ADVYS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TO GO TO 00Z AS THIS AREA WL
BE UNDER AXIS OF LINGERING SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME HIER
H85-5 RH ON THE CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK. AFTER THE STEADY SN/HIER
POPS EXIT EARLY THIS EVNG...UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL CAUSE THE SYNOPTIC
LIGHT SN TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. AS THIS
NE FLOW DRAGS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -17C TO -18C AND LINGERING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC EXITS...THE SYNOTPIC PCPN WL TRANSITION TO LES.
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/SOME LLVL CNVGC/INSTABILITY...
INFLUX OF DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

MON...ALTHOUGH CHILLY AIRMASS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -18C
RANGE WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LES AND THERE ARE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY DROP SE THRU THE UPR LKS...ARRVIAL OF SFC HI PRES/ACYC LLVL FLOW
AS WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING WL CAUSE LES TO DIMINISH TO ISOLD SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY LLVL AIR WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF THESE SN SHOWERS. TEMPS WL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE CLDS LINGER OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E UNDER MORE
STUBBORN H85 THERMAL TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN NOAM RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL AND
ERN CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
PAC NW WILL BRING PCPN AND A SLIGHT WARM UP INTO THE NRN CONUS FROM
TUE THROUGH WED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE SFC RIDGE
MOVE IN AND FRESH SNOWCOVER...EXPECT MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS INLAND. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST...MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 20.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA (300K ISENTROPIC LIFT) BRINGING SNOW INTO THE
WEST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY 06Z/WED.
CONSENSUS QPF IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE BY 12Z/WED WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF WEST SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 10/1.

WED...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNFICANTLY GREATER AS THE GFS/GEM SHOW
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV OVER THE
CWA COMPARED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WHICH DIGS THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITH A WEAKER SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...THERE IS HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WOULD LINGER. THE FCST
MAINTAINS LIKELY POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE INCHES OF
SNOW. HOWEVER...IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF...MAINLY JUST LIGHT
SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING S CNTRL
FOR A MIX WITH RAIN.

WED NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C BY 12Z THU WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER GEM/GFS. A TRAILING
CLIPPER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
BUT MAY CLIP THE FAR WEST THU. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL
ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR LES AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE BY 00Z/FRI. ENOUGH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPS
TO AROUND -17C THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS FOR LES FAVORED BY
NRLY FLOW.

SAT-SUN...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND CONSISTENCY
LOWER AS THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH. LOWER END (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR WAA
AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

EXPECT STEADY SN AT CMX AND SAW TO TAPER OFF TO -SHSN BY LATER IN
THE AFTN...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD MVFR AT THOSE SITES BY
ABOUT 00Z. ALTHOUGH IWD HAS SEEN LIGHTER SN/BETTER CONDITIONS UP TO
VFR MOST OF THE TIME... BACKING WINDS TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE NNE
DIRECTION WL SEE A RETURN OF PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS. A GRDUAL INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR FM THE NE LATER TNGT AND MON WL RESULT IN A TRANSITION
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND AT
SAW HELPING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

NO GALES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SRLY
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT WITH NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE LOW WED
INTO WED NIGHT. NRLY WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003>007-013-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON GOING WINTER WX
ADVYS/SN TOTALS AND THEN TRANSITION TO LK EFFECT SN TNGT INTO MON AS
THE COLDER AIR TO THE N FOLLOWS INTO THE UPR LKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF UPPER MI TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF CANADA WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS TIME. THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE
DEPARTED...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WITH THE INCREASED INSOLATION FROM THE EARLY
APRIL SUN AND MIXING HEIGHTS OF 6KFT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT...QUITE A COMPLICATED TEMP FORECAST AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN CWA AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS WI. WHERE PLACES CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL...TEMPS COULD FALL TO OR EVEN BELOW ZERO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD.
A BROAD SHIELD OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY OVERCOME A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND SPREAD SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON WED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS SE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PHASING OF THE
CLIPPER WITH THE LEAD TROUGH...LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
INSTEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW.

THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. ALONG THE WI AND SOUTH CENTRAL...THE LOW-
LEVELS BECOME ISOTHERMAL AT OR JUST ABOVE 0C LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...SO THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY WET. OVERALL...A VERY
WET 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. BY THU...THE TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM GLANCES THE FAR
WEST CWA WHILE LES DEVELOPS FOR THE N TO NE WIND SNOW BELTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LES GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND TEMPS BECOME NON-SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE-
INDUCED CONVECTION. WAA RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

NO GALES SEEN IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 30 KNOTS.
WARM ENOUGH ALSO THAT FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH MANY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING BY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003>007-013-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

300 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IMPACT CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW LOOK LIKELY FOR MID WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES AS IS BUT WILL MENTION REDUCED IMPACTS AS
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL LOWER MI. THAT SAID...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS UP AND THE H850
WARM SURGE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS
UNDERWHELMING WITH THIS EVENT...COULD SEE ENOUGH WINTRY MIX OR
JUST SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER COINCIDENT WITH FALLING
SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR SOME
POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS TONIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. IF THIS WAS NOT THE CASE I WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED
CANCELING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER THE ADVISORY.

COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-96 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER. I DON`T SEE MUCH MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS IN TERMS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW A
NARROW LINE OF MODEST CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THIS
REGION TONIGHT. I LEFT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WE ARE SQUARELY IN CAA ONCE AGAIN AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE HURON FOR A TIME. IF WINDS ARE CLOSER
TO DUE NORTH THEN THIS WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NEAR/SOUTH OF I-96. NORTH OF THERE...TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT
SUN APR 3 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-96.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR PCPN TO FALL AS ALL
SNOW THAT AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR TO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
RELATIVELY HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT RANGE ARE MOST PROBABLE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MKG TO ALMA.

PCPN WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOME LIGHTER MIXED PCPN MAY LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE FCST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG BUT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
KMKG.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION MAY
MIX WITH SNOW THIS EVENING AT OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KMKG... KGRR
AND KLAN). PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOW CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH WINDS STAYING OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 10-20 KTS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

SCA CONTINUES THROUGH LATER MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES. THE CHOPPIEST
CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT OUT ON THE
LAKE AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE
RAPIDS. OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THOUGH
LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL... MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-051-052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ848-849.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844-845.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846-847.

SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...HOVING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

132 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...

A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
SPREAD AN ARM OF SNOW OVER SE MICHIGAN TERMINALS MAINLY PTK NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A SHARP WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND CARRY ENOUGH WARM AIR TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TYPE INTO QUESTION AT PTK AND FNT. THIS SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WARMS ABOVE FREEZING DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MBS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR IN ALL SNOW BUT WILL BE VERY
SENSITIVE TO NARROW BAND ALIGNMENT AND PRECISE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE WHILE
TAPERING DOWN TO JUST AN INCH OR TWO FNT AND A WET COATING AT PTK.
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CEILING AND GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION ENDS.
COOLER NORTH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND HELP LIFT
CEILING TOWARD VFR BY NOON.

FOR DTW... HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF DTW
DURING AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR IT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURE WARMS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THAT LEAVES WIND AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL OR JUST TO
THE NORTH. WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS DUE
TO PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TRACK. A BURST OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRIALING COLD FRONT WHICH COULD MIX WITH SNOW
LATE EVENING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS DURING AFTERNOON. HIGH TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR ALL RAIN PRECIP TYPE DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOW FOR CROSS WIND THRESHOLD AS WIND TURNS FROM 340 OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1222 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

UPDATE...

HAVE SEEN NO COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORY CONFIGURATION SO FAR. TIGHT SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
DUE TO STRONG THETA-E ADJECTION INTO THE AREA WITH LIMIT WARNING
CRITERION SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL TO THE HURON COUNTY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TUSCOLA/SANILAC. LIKEWISE...ADVISORY WORTHY
SNOW IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF COUNTIES UNDER ADVISORIES. SNOWFALL FALLS OFF TO 1 OR 2 INCHES
QUICKLY SOUTH FROM THERE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF
M-59. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA...LARGELY DUE
TO THE STRONG PUSH OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OR
2/3 OF THE CWA.

DID PULL FORWARD THE BEGINNING OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BY A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FGEN BANDING IS COMING TOGETHER
PRETTY QUICKLY AND WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO TAKE LONG TO SATURATE
A NARROW DRY LAYER THAT WAS EVIDENT ON KDTX 12Z RAOB BETWEEN ABOUT
800-725 MB. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND GUSTS HIGHER DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING PERIOD AS IT APPEARS A DECENT PUSH OF WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...SOUTH OF I-94...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL
FOLLOW TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST WINDS FURTHER IF NEEDED.
IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WHERE
WINDS GUSTS REACH OR TOP 30 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ047-048-053-
062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1222 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 616 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING... MEDIUM BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ047-048-053-
062-063.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ049-054-055.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

355 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER SW WISCONSIN..WITH ACCOMPANYING
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE..WILL
RAPIDLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. IN ITS
WAKE..N/NE WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT CLEAN..WITH LOTS OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS..AND ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LONG OVER- LAKE
FETCHES. HOWEVER..THE MAIN STRONG FGEN BAND OF SNOW THAT PRODUCED
A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER
REGION TODAY HAS WEAKENED..AND THE ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM.

ONSHORE NE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT..BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY. AS A
RESULT..AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG THE MN NORTH SHORE..AND FROM THE TWIN PORTS REGION EASTWARD
TO THE ASHLAND AREA. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS..BUT SOME OF THE AREAS THAT SEE THE MORE PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO
LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A CENTER AROUND
1000MB. THE MODELS TRACK THIS LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH 925-850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO THROUGH
TUESDAY OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES. WE TRENDED COLDER
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING BECOMES A
FACTOR. WE HAVE MORE SNOW FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
ACCUMULATION OF A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. MORE PRECISE
AMOUNTS WILL BE A SHORTER TERM FORECAST ISSUE ONCE WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST WAVE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...COLDER AIR...WITH 850MB
TEMPS -10C TO -16C...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW YET ANOTHER LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT
COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR A POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER THIRTIES TO
AROUND FORTY...BUT WARM A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST AREAS OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WAS LIMITED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE FAR NORTH...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE AT MOST TAF SITES AND
HAVE SOME TEMPO WORDING IN. THE RAP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
BRINGING LOW CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BEEN OVERDONE...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING WEST/SOUTH
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THESE CEILINGS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF.

AN INCREASE TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING LONGER AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 33 22 35 / 40 50 10 80
INL 12 34 17 39 / 10 0 0 70
BRD 23 43 28 45 / 10 0 0 70
HYR 19 39 22 38 / 20 10 10 80
ASX 19 32 21 39 / 40 40 10 70

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>147.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ148.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1246 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

S/W TROF AXIS IN THE MID LEVELS IS JUST NOW ENTERING NW
MINNESOTA..WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR BRAINERD AT 10
AM. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND EVEN VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE DULUTH
CWA..THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STARTED OUT QUITE FAR FROM
SATURATION..WHICH IS ACTING TO SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEDING INTO THIS WAVE FROM
THE WARM SECTOR /PER THE 12Z KMPX SOUNDING/ AND WEAK STABILITY
ARE RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERY PRECIP IN MOST AREAS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER SATURATION ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER /PER 12Z KINL SOUNDING/..WHERE LARGE SCALE
LIFT IS ALSO BEING LOCALLY ENHANCED BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
FORCING IN THE 850-600 MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY..THIS IS THE
AREA WHERE WE HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT BANDING OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP ALL MORNING..WITH A 3.8 INCH SNOW REPORT FROM GOLDEN EAGLE
LODGE ON THE GUNFLINT TRAIL IN INTERIOR COOK COUNTY.

WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON..AND IS SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD IS
THE ONLY PLACE WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED
SNOWFALL..PER THE REASONING ABOVE. WHILE EASTERLY ON SHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH SHORE..AND SOME SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE..THE OVERALL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE..WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20-40 POPS
FOR A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS..WHICH WILL LIKELY ALSO
CONTAIN SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

AT 4 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 10 ABOVE AT THE GRAND MARAIS
AIRPORT TO 30 IN HINCKLEY AND SIREN. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO THICKEN
AND INCREASE FROM THE WEST...AS LOCAL RADARS INDICATED INCREASING
RETURNS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO SURFACE
REFLECTION AT THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES HAVE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HEAD OF THE LAKES REGION.

FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...TO NEAR ROCHESTER BY 18Z...AND MILWAUKEE BY 00Z MONDAY. A
SWATH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MN...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THERE IS A BIT
OF CONCERN REGARDING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE CONVECTIVE LOOK OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR FAIRLY QUICKLY. STRONG WAA AND FGEN...
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
THINK THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE...TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
TWO OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY SNOW BANDS DO DEVELOP.

MONDAY...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
SPOTS. THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND IS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM CENTER ON TWO PASSING AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION AND TYPE.

A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN STARTS OFF THE LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM NEAR
TWO HARBORS TO NEAR GRAND PORTAGE. WITH THE SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
AND EXPECTED WIND SHEAR...SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY.
CONTINUED THE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT IN FAVORED AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

THE RIDGE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROF AND STRONG PV ANOMALY
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN 24 TO 36 HOUR
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. WARM AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO
POINT TOWARD MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...HOWEVER SEVERAL INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EAST ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY SEE TEMPS COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY SNOW. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN DETERMINING
FACTORS FOR HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. IF PRECIP IS LOCALLY HEAVY...AND
FOR AREAS WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN USHERING IN A
RETURN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH SHORE. A WEAK
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

THE GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF.

AN INCREASE TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING LONGER AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 20 33 22 / 40 40 50 10
INL 31 12 34 17 / 60 10 0 0
BRD 46 23 43 28 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 41 19 39 22 / 30 20 10 10
ASX 33 19 32 21 / 70 40 40 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
020-021.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>147.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ148.

AVIATION...MELDE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
346 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Strong winds will gradually diminish this evening ahead of an
approaching cdfnt. Expect isod to sct showers to develop just behind
this fnt over the next couple of hours as it moves swd. The shower
activity shud persist into nrn portions of the CWA thru the evening
hours. The strong swly to wly LLJ shud help advect moisture into
this region and help support the showers. However, later in the
evening, the forcing pushes ahead of the fnt and CAA with nwly flow
begins to dominate the region. This shud allow any showers to
diminish. Still, have kept some low PoPs later tonight across ern
portions of the CWA where the low level and upper level forcing are
better.

As for temps, with the warm day today, rather late fropa for most of
the CWA and relatively warm airmass behind the fnt, trended twd the
warmer guidance for tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

The low currently over eastern Minnesota will be over Pennsylvania by
12Z Monday and the trailing cold front should be mostly through the
CWFA by then. A 1030mb high will build over the Great Lakes pushing
cold Canadian air into the Mississippi Valley. Highs Monday will
be about 20 degrees cooler in west central Illinois than they were
today...ranging to about 10 degrees cooler along the I-70
corridor...and perhaps only a few degrees cooler across the eastern
Ozarks. Current indications are that any lingering precip from pre-
dawn showers will likely dry up fairly quickly by 12Z or shortly
thereafter. Am therefore keeping Monday`s forecast dry.

The high moves across Michigan Monday night and wind shifts to the
east-southeast by 12Z Tuesday. Coldest temperatures should be over
southwest and south central Illinois counties...and current forecast
is for temperatures between 30-33 degrees. WFOs to my east have
issued a freeze watch for early Tuesday morning, but I am holding
off for the moment. Combination of increasing southeast flow and
potentially increasing clouds makes these lows somewhat uncertain.
Will let the midnight shift take another look tonight...and
potentially even issue a frost/freeze headline tomorrow if the 12Z
guidance comes in still looking that cold.

The next system will come through late Tuesday night into Wednesday
with rain and thunderstorms. SPC DY3 keeps the marginal severe risk
west of our CWFA through 12Z Wednesday. This looks good due to lack
of lengthy return flow ahead of the front and since it`s also a
climatologically unfavorable time of day for severe weather as the
front passes through before 18Z Wednesday.

Longwave trof still forecast to set up over the Eastern Seaboard for
the end of the week. The GFS and ECMW diverge Saturday and Sunday
with the ECMWF maintaining the high amplitude blocky pattern while
the GFS becomes more zonal by late Saturday/early Sunday. Therefore
the GFS is warmer and potentially wetter for the weekend.

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

VFR expected thru the TAF period. Gusty swly winds will continue
this afternoon and diminish this evening. LLWS is expected this
evening ahead of an approaching cdfnt. Isod SHRA are possible with
this fnt with best chances of impacting KUIN. Otherwise, winds
will gradually become nly by Mon morning.

Tilly

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 50 60 35 58 / 10 5 0 5
Quincy 42 54 32 55 / 30 5 10 20
Columbia 47 63 37 62 / 10 5 0 10
Jefferson City 49 64 37 63 / 10 5 0 5
Salem 49 58 33 55 / 20 5 0 5
Farmington 49 65 35 58 / 10 5 0 5

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
346 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As for temps, with the warm day today, rather late fropa for most of
the CWA and relatively warm airmass behind the fnt, trended twd the
warmer guidance for tonight.

Tilly

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Tilly

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
346 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As for temps, with the warm day today, rather late fropa for most of
the CWA and relatively warm airmass behind the fnt, trended twd the
warmer guidance for tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Tilly

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

A cold front will slip into northern Missouri late his evening and
then through central/southern Missouri and southeast Kansas late
tonight into early Monday morning. About the only sensible weather
impacts from this frontal passage will be a wind switch to a more
northerly direction. Stronger winds will continue through the
evening hours, although little in the way of gusts are expected.
Gradient then relaxes near the front with lighter winds for late
tonight with frontal passage.

High pressure will nose into the region from the north behind the
front on Monday. Short term models all show a pretty decent
temperature gradient from north to south Monday afternoon, with
highs expected to range from just the lower to middle 60s across
central Missouri, to the lower to middle 70s near the Arkansas
border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

A shortwave trough will rotate through the northern Plains Tuesday
and into the Upper Mississippi valley Tuesday night. Pressure
gradient really tightens as surface low develops over the
Panhandle of Oklahoma. Expect a rather windy afternoon across
much of the area. Models indicating a plume of steeper mid level
lapse rates along with stronger instabilities to push up into
northeast Kansas by 00Z Wednesday ahead of the approaching cold
front. GFS and NAM develop convection along the boundary then pushes
it into the forecast area after midnight. Instabilities looks to
drop off rapidly during the evening, so not expecting anything
severe once it gets into our area. In fact, QPF trends have on the
decrease with successive model runs, so although still expecting
widespread rainfall, amounts will be on the light side with up to
one quarter of an inch expected.

A brief cool down is expected on Thursday and Friday with high
pressure settling across the area, with highs the upper 50s to
middle 60s. As the high shifts eastward Friday night, a warming
trend will commence for the weekend. The northwest flow aloft will
transition to more zonal or even southwesterly as troughing develops
across the western Conus. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a lead
shortwave being ejected out of the western trough. However, there
are some timing differences, with the GFS tracking it through the
area Sunday, while ECMWF a bit faster taking it across the area
Saturday night. None the less this will be our next best chance for
convection. Temperatures will warm back to near or slightly above
normal for the weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As expected, winds have picked up this afternoon. In fact, much of
this TAF period will be focused only on winds as VFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected through 18z Monday.

Winds will be southerly/southwesterly through the afternoon and
into the evening. Again, winds will be gusty at times, especially
for the JLN and SGF terminals. That being said, there is a weak
cold front expected to push through during the overnight, which
will shift winds to a more northerly direction by Monday morning.

In addition to the wind shift later tonight, expect low level
wind shear to gradually increase for all terminals this evening
and continue overnight. LLWS should subside tomorrow morning
around sunrise, give or take an hour.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Temperatures have warmed and relative humidities have dropped
into the 20 to 30 percent range so far, and will likely bottom out
between 20 and 25 percent across western and central Missouri late
this afternoon. Winds have been strongest and relative humidities
lowest north of I-44, where Red Flag criteria are being met.

A weak front will pass through the area very late tonight into early
Monday morning, which will result in a change of wind direction to
northerly by morning across the entire area. RH on Monday will be
between 30 and 40 percent, with lighter north winds.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Raberding

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As expected, winds have picked up this afternoon. In fact, much of
this TAF period will be focused only on winds as VFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected through 18z Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

A weak front will pass through the area very late tonight into early
Monday morning, which will result in a change of wind direction to
northerly by morning across the entire area. RH on Monday will be
between 30 and 40 percent, with lighter north winds.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Raberding

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
241 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Breezy southwesterly winds and relative humidity values in the lower
20 percent range will continue extreme fire weather conditions for
the remainder of the afternoon for much of the area. Wind speeds
will fall off around sunset, with RH quickly recovering as deep
mixing ends. A weak frontal boundary will push through the area
tonight with winds becoming northeasterly. Models continue to suggest
a slight chance for showers across northeast Missouri, and will
retain this area during the overnight hours. How far west showers
will develop remains highly uncertain, but seems very low probability
for showers to reach near the KC Metro. Instability will initially
exist over southern Iowa, and initial activity may contain a few
lightning strikes, but instability quickly wanes this evening and
anticipate mainly showers for the forecast area.

A cooler day is expected on Monday as an upper trough dives into the
Ohio Valley, ushering in cooler and drier air upon northeasterly
surface winds. This slight cool down is short-lived as upper level
ridging builds into the Plains on Tuesday ahead of the next upper
trough. Moisture will rapidly return to the area Tuesday afternoon
with a nearly north-south oriented warm front ushering in Td near
50. Highs will be warmest over eastern Kansas in the mid 70s to the
lower 60s in northeast Missouri. A surface low will evolve and move
northeast across portions of the forecast area, bringing in advance
the warm front eastward and a Pacific cold front through the area
Wednesday night. Initial highest probability for thunderstorms will
be located along warm front closest to surface low where inhibition
may be weakest and forcing strongest. Thunderstorms are also
expected to develop along the front overnight. A few strong storms
cannot be ruled out if thunderstorms can form in the area during the
afternoon or early evening hours; most probable over northwest
Missouri. Otherwise, non-severe convection is expected overnight,
with many areas experiencing some precipitation.

Scattered showers may persist into Wednesday as large vort max moves
across the area. The highly-amplified upper trough will be slow to
shift east, keeping temperatures at or slightly below normal
Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will gradually rebound for
the weekend as southerly winds return for the central CONUS.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR conditions at terminals. Gusty southwest winds will decrease and
veer this evening ahead of a cold front, eventually becoming
northeasterly by sunrise Monday. Any shower activity with this
frontal passage will remain east of terminals.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-
011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
241 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

A cooler day is expected on Monday as an upper trough dives into the
Ohio Valley, ushering in cooler and drier air upon northeasterly
surface winds. This slight cool down is short-lived as upper level
ridging builds into the Plains on Tuesday ahead of the next upper
trough. Moisture will rapidly return to the area Tuesday afternoon
with a nearly north-south oriented warm front ushering in Td near
50. Highs will be warmest over eastern Kansas in the mid 70s to the
lower 60s in northeast Missouri. A surface low will evolve and move
northeast across portions of the forecast area, bringing in advance
the warm front eastward and a Pacific cold front through the area
Wednesday night. Initial highest probability for thunderstorms will
be located along warm front closest to surface low where inhibition
may be weakest and forcing strongest. Thunderstorms are also
expected to develop along the front overnight. A few strong storms
cannot be ruled out if thunderstorms can form in the area during the
afternoon or early evening hours; most probable over northwest
Missouri. Otherwise, non-severe convection is expected overnight,
with many areas experiencing some precipitation.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-
011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As expected, winds have picked up this afternoon. In fact, much of
this TAF period will be focused only on winds as VFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected through 18z Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

As expected, winds have picked up this afternoon. In fact, much of
this TAF period will be focused only on winds as VFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected through 18z Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Frye
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-
011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-
011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Tilly

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Tilly

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088-089.

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ073-097-101.

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
604 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
604 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
450 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
441 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Other than some post-frontal showers possibly lingering around
through Thursday, the rest of the week will be relatively quiet and
seasonable.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

Further to the south and east of the Wind Advisory discussed above,
RH values will tank into the upper teens and 20s, prompting the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning in combination with gusty winds.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ001-002-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033.

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...lg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
412 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
412 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Highs will be close to normal, though Monday night`s lows will be in
the 30`s as the surface ridge moves through the area.

(Thursday through Saturday)

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure moving overhead calmed winds this evening. However,
southerly winds will pick up early in the morning, and become
gusty by late morning.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 3 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

Gusty winds still expected through the day on Sunday with VFR
conditions. Expect winds to gradually relax after sunset Sunday
evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure moving overhead calmed winds this evening. However,
southerly winds will pick up early in the morning, and become
gusty by late morning.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1141 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Remainder of forecast looks on target, with clear skies and dry wx
thru Sunday afternoon, and a warm day on tap thanks to the SW
winds.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
917 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Remainder of forecast looks on target, with clear skies and dry wx
thru Sunday afternoon, and a warm day on tap thanks to the SW
winds.

TES

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL-
Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
636 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

TES

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will quickly become light and variable this evening
as the sun begins to set. However, gusty south winds will pick up
tomorrow morning, potentially gusting over 30 mph at times.

Skies will remain clear as high pressure shifts overhead.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Carney

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
249 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
620 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Main concerns today will be windy conditions and elevated fire
conditions. For the fire concerns...see the fire weather section
below.

Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front
causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection. Highs
are close to a a mix of GFS/NAM MOS temperature guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

(Tonight through Monday)

(Tuesday through Friday)

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Kanofsky

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016

Britt

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1226 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

INCREASED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS UPDATE. ALSO EXPANDED STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES...BASED ON LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL RUN. THIS PROMPTED THE ADDITION OF GRANT
AND SIOUX COUNTIES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF THIS EVENING.

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AT NOON
THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY NEAR JAMESTOWN TO WASHBURN/HAZEN TO NEAR
STANLEY/TIOGA. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE
30S...WITH TEMPERATURES SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE 50S/60S. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SAG SOUTHWARD JUST A BIT
MORE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. A TRICKY
TEMP/RH/WIND FORECAST TODAY MAINLY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL MONITOR WIND AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS GRANT AND SIOUX
COUNTIES SHOULD AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING BECOME
NECESSARY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 09-12 UTC EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
ITERATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

SOME LIGHT ECHOS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS PUSHING TOWARDS
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVING THROUGH. A LIGHT SHOWER WAS REPORTED AT REGINA...BUT
QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL HIT THE GROUND OVER OUR AREA WITH THE
DRIER ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCES NORTH...BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS
TO BE SPREAD OUT A LITTLE MORE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...998MB NEAR BOWBELLS NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH WILLISTON CURRENTLY AT
56F AND MINOT AT 57F...WILL COME TO A HALT AS THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHILE BEHIND THE LOW A POTENTIAL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS
SEEN PER CANADIAN RADAR LOOP. GROUND TRUTH ESTIMATES EARLIER
SHOWED A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT THE AREA IS DWINDLING WITH TIME AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER MENTION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
SEE THIS AS VIRGA THAN ACTUAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SOUTHWEST TODAY WEST OF MISSOURI RIVER...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION/NORTHWEST
WINDS IN A WELL MIXED/DRY ADIABATIC LAYER WILL LEAD TO WINDS OF
20 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH...TO THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE SLIDES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY FOR A DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST...50S
CENTRAL AND AROUND 40F IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND CLOSES
OFF AS IT MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WARMER AIR ALOFT
LIFTS IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SPREADING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH INITIAL PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
ADDED SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EVENING. LATE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TOWARDS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY...THEN STARTS TO SHIFT
TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER...AND RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST AND
COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE BACKSIDE. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA WHERE GREATEST WARMING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY SLOT. THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIRMASS WORKS
IN.

SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS
QUICK TO MAKE ITS APPROACH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS IT
DIVES THROUGH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. QUIETER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

HAVE ADDED GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATED HIGHER WINDS
AND LOWER RH VALUES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING:

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 20
PERCENT...COINCIDING WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FOR AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE
HOURS...WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC
FIRE WEATHER...JV/KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1230 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MVFR STRATUS
MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 06Z
MONDAY...AND LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING MONDAY. THE STRATUS COULD
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS MVFR STRATUS AT THIS TIME IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SO THIS
SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE. THIS AFTERNOON...BRISK WINDS WILL GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016

UPDATED OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES EARLIER ALONG OUR MO RIVER VALLEY
AREA FROM TYNDALL SD...SOUTHEASTWARD TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND THE SIOUX CITY VICINITY FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT DEEP LAYER MIXING WILL TAKE HOLD BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6
PM THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 20 TO
25 PERCENT IN THAT LOCATION. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ258.

MN...NONE.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...MJ