Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/02/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
254 PM MST THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT
TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND
WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS
OVER MY FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER RETURNS ARE OVER
COCHISE COUNTY. EVEN SO...NO MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWING UP FROM
OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. THAT SAID...
POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING IS BASED HEAVILY ON LATEST HRRR AND SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM TUCSON
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA COULD BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. FOR NOW THE GFS
IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. 31/12Z MOS NUMBERS SHOW 25 PERCENT FOR TUCSON NEXT
THURSDAY...WHILE EURO SHOWS 2 PERCENT. SO THAT SAID...WITH CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND JUST KEPT MOSTLY SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
HUGE DISCREPANCIES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
BETWEEN GFS AND EURO WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AS WELL...WITH GFS SHOWING
A HIGH NEXT THURSDAY OF 78 DEGS...WHILE EURO SHOWS 96 DEGS.
AGAIN...JUST WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO...FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF THE
TUS TERMINAL THRU ABOUT 02/03Z...THEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER 02/18Z.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 10K-15K FT MSL WILL PREVAIL.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. OTHERWISE... SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST-TO-
SOUTH OF TUCSON INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED HUMIDITY VALUES. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
GENERALLY AROUND 25 MPH WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
LESSER WINDS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS/ FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GL
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE WILL SEE BEST
POPS. ALSO...FAR N EL PASO WILL ALSO SEE GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
E SLOPES OF S MTNS WILL SEE ACCUM SNOWFALL...BUT ONCE AGAIN
PRECIP GRADIENT (SNOW AND RAIN) MAY BE VERY TIGHT. TRIED TO FINE
TUNE POPS GIVEN HI RES GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ALONG AND EAST OF S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PRIMARY
CLOUD FIELD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOW GRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING NOTED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...NEAR/SHORT TERM REAL-TIME
DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT IN
COMBINATION WITH NEXT COLDER AND MOIST NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE SURGE PUSHING INTO THE THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE DEPICTED ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BASICALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET...EVEN INCLUDING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OVERALL...HAVE DEPICTED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO SIX INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES
SHOULD OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW WILL
DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IF/AS NEEDED.
FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
AN UPR TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE SOUTH FRI MORNING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVR THE SRN MTNS...SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE NAM IS DRY FRI AFTERNOON ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
ON SAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WL TAKE PLACE OVR THE STATE AND WL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS AND DRY WX. HIGHS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
AVERAGE. ON SUN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE THRU THE NW FLOW
ALOFT BUT THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. HIGHS ON SUN
SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND AROUND 5 ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
ON MON AN UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE STATE BUT AN
APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
AREA AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUE THAT DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA...SENDING A
FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC...BREEZY W TO
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER AS THE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS. MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK DRY ON TUE...BUT THERE COULD BE SHOWERS OVR SOME OF
THE MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WL BE QUITE WARM ON TUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE SERN
PLAINS AND AROUND 10 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
FOR WED THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND COOLER TEMPS. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT FOR WED...KEEPING THE
UPR TROF FARTHER EAST WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVR THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. THUS THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COS THIS
AFTERNOON...DECREASING DURING EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF COS ON E SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK. VFR
EXPECTED BY MID EVENING.
KPUB MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR. VFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.
KALS WILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES BY LATER IN THE EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS FORMED BEHIND IT AND IS TRACKING SOUTH. FOR
THE PLAINS...THIS MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT OF SNOW TODAY AS DRIER
MOVES IN BEHIND. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MOST
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-25. SNOW/SLUSH ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL
BE DIFFICULT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXCEPT WHERE HEAVY SNOW
PERSISTS FOR A WHILE.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVE SOUTH IN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THESE WINDS TURNING
TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER WHERE 3 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. FOR THE DENVER METRO AREA...UP
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACE IN SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA.
SNOW WILL DECREASE AND END THIS EVENING AS THE DRIES AND
STABILIZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
MRMS SHOWS PCPN HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THE PAST HOUR OR SO
FM CYS TO FORT COLLINS. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER THEN SNOW MAY
DVLP OVER THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z TO 15Z. MEANWHILE IN THE LAST
HOUR THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOW CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND ARE
TRENDING TO THE WETTER GFS. AMAZINGLY JUST A FEW HOURS AGO THE HRRR
AND RAP WERE SHOWING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND SW OF
DENVER OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...NOW THEY ARE SHOWING FROM 8 TO 12
INCHES WITH UP TO 8 INCHES FROM BOULDER TO SOUTH TO GOLDEN. AT
THIS POINT WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
MAKING MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY AS COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ON THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL DOWNRIGHT BRISK AT TIMES.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF FINE SPRING
WEATHER WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING NORTHERN COLORADO. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO MOVE OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COLD FRONT RECENTLY PUSHED THROUGH WITH SNOW BEHIND IT. PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
0100Z AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS. DUE TO THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND NOT BEING HEAVY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON PAVED SURFACES. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MINOR SLUSH ON THE RUNWAYS IF HEAVY SNOW DOES FORM. AT
THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF DENVER...NOT KDEN. KDEN MAY BE SNOW
FREE AFTER 1700-1800Z...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z. VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 1 MILE UNDER
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL
START TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
840 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ALONG AND EAST OF S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PRIMARY
CLOUD FIELD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOW GRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING NOTED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...NEAR/SHORT TERM REAL-TIME
DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT IN
COMBINATION WITH NEXT COLDER AND MOIST NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE SURGE PUSHING INTO THE THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE DEPICTED ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BASICALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET...EVEN INCLUDING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OVERALL...HAVE DEPICTED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO SIX INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES
SHOULD OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW WILL
DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IF/AS NEEDED.
FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
AN UPR TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE SOUTH FRI MORNING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVR THE SRN MTNS...SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE NAM IS DRY FRI AFTERNOON ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
ON SAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WL TAKE PLACE OVR THE STATE AND WL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS AND DRY WX. HIGHS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
AVERAGE. ON SUN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE THRU THE NW FLOW
ALOFT BUT THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. HIGHS ON SUN
SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND AROUND 5 ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
ON MON AN UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE STATE BUT AN
APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
AREA AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUE THAT DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA...SENDING A
FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC...BREEZY W TO
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER AS THE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS. MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK DRY ON TUE...BUT THERE COULD BE SHOWERS OVR SOME OF
THE MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WL BE QUITE WARM ON TUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE SERN
PLAINS AND AROUND 10 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
FOR WED THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND COOLER TEMPS. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT FOR WED...KEEPING THE
UPR TROF FARTHER EAST WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVR THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. THUS THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT WITH INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 16Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN OVER AND NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...WITH IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
625 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
MRMS SHOWS PCPN HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THE PAST HOUR OR SO
FM CYS TO FORT COLLINS. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER THEN SNOW MAY
DVLP OVER THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z TO 15Z. MEANWHILE IN THE LAST
HOUR THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOW CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND ARE
TRENDING TO THE WETTER GFS. AMAZINGLY JUST A FEW HOURS AGO THE HRRR
AND RAP WERE SHOWING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND SW OF
DENVER OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...NOW THEY ARE SHOWING FROM 8 TO 12
INCHES WITH UP TO 8 INCHES FROM BOULDER TO SOUTH TO GOLDEN. AT
THIS POINT WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
MAKING MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY AS COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ON THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL DOWNRIGHT BRISK AT TIMES.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF FINE SPRING
WEATHER WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING NORTHERN COLORADO. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO MOVE OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
BAND OF SNOW HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED FROM FORT COLLINS TO GREELEY
AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AS CDFNT MOVES IN. IF THIS BAND HOLDS UP
SNOW COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 8 AN AND 9 AM. STILL THINK
MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT BUT COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH
ON GRASSY SURFACES. LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE COMPLETELY FLIP
FLOPPED FROM THERE SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT AND NOW SUPPORT THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER THEY SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA WITH HEAVIER SNOW STILL STAYING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
DIA. FOR EXAMPLE THEY SHOW 6 INCHES AT BJC WITH 4 INCHES AT APA
AND ONLY AN INCH AT DIA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
CONFIDENCE IN TODAY`S FCST IS ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. THERE IS
A DISTURBANCE IN NNW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NERN CO. THESE ARE THE ONLY TWO THINGS I`M SURE ABOUT.
THE TIMING OF PCPN AND HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR IS A WHOLE ANOTHER
MATTER. THE HRRR AND RAP BASICALLY HAVE PCPN ENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING PCPN THRU ABOUT 21Z IN
THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70 AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK. THIS IS DUE TO THEM
BRINGING IN A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS BY 18Z WHICH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD BY AFTN. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS 6 HOURS
SLOWER WITH ENDING PCPN AS IT DOES NOT SHOW THIS DRIER AIR MOVING
IN UNTIL AROUND 00Z. AS A RESULT IT HAS MUCH MORE PCPN IN AND NR
THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME PERIOD WITH CLOSE TO ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS TO THE WEST AND SW OF DENVER. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LIGHTER PCPN. FOR NOW WILL SCALE BACK PCPN AMOUNTS SOME FM
PREVIOUS FCST AND KEEP HIGHER POPS IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. IF THE
HRRR AND RAP ARE CORRECT THEN MY TIMING OF ENDING PCPN MAY END UP
BEING 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO LATE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR THIS
AFTN IS HIGHS ACROSS NERN CO AS READINGS COULD END UP BEING WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO PCPN ENDING BY EARLY AFTN. THUS WILL BUMP
THEM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR THIS EVENING PCPN SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY IN THE MTNS...SRN
FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK. OVERNIGHT THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FCST AS THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BRIEF
SURGE OVERNIGHT WHICH ENHANCES UPSLOPE BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SPEADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. AT
THIS POINT WILL JUST KEEP IN LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY AS COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ON THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL DOWNRIGHT BRISK AT TIMES.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF FINE SPRING
WEATHER WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING NORTHERN COLORADO. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO MOVE OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016
A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT BY 15Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING OF 15 TO 25 MPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. AS
FOR SNOW CHANCES THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS MENTIONED ABV. AT
THIS TIME BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF DIA IN THE 15Z TO 21Z PERIOD. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SNOW
CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING BY 18Z WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 00Z WITH NO SNOW
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WNW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS AND LOWER CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO NERN NJ AND ALONG THE CT COAST AT 220Z PER
RADAR. NWLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS. LAST REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WERE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE S FORK. BEST CHC FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN COME
TOWARDS MRNG WHEN MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE RR QUAD OF
THE JET APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT AND
TRAVELS NE ALONG THE FRONT. A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO KEEP IN LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS
FAR NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO END UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PASSING EITHER OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY AFTER THE LOW CENTER`S PASSAGE...COUPLED
WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE NIGHT
SATURDAY.
REGARDING WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR VERY LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS BEING A VERY LATE 3RD PERIOD TO 4TH PERIOD
EVENT...AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR NOW. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME DOUBTS THAT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
AREAS AND LONG ISLAND SEE GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...THIS IS AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH.
AS FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...IT BECOMES LIKELY LATE AT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF BY NOONTIME
ON SUNDAY...BUT FOR ALL LOCATIONS IT LIKELY STARTS AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...RANGING TO A LIGHT COATING TO
NO ACCUMULATION OVER LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NJ.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S USING A NAM12/MAV/MET MOS BLEND. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX MEANDERING ABOUT HUDSON BAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST WITH RIDGING OUT WEST.
POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES SUN
NIGHT/MON. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE E IS REINFORCED MON INTO TUE. RIDGING BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK FOR WED...BUT YET ANOTHER DEEPENING ERN TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO
TYPICAL TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THU INTO FRI.
GUSTY WINDS SUN EVE WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WEAK WAA COMMENCES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUN NIGHT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA ON MON WITH NRN ZONES
HAVING THE BEST CHC FOR POSSIBLE MINOR AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE RECENT WARM WEATHER COULD CONFINE ACCUMS MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES. EARLY MON MORNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. GUSTY SW WINDS MON WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE LATE MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CAA DEVELOPS. GUSTY NLY WINDS
CONTINUE ON TUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SERN CANADA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY
MIDNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TRACKS SE OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY.
SHRA/TSRA HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDS IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...CONDS EXPECTED TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
IN LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT KISP/KGON...AND POSSIBLY KJFK/KBDR/KHPN. -RA ENDING
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS TO VFR SAT AFTERNOON FOR W TO E.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH 04-06Z AFTER
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIKELY
BECOMING MORE N/NE LESS THAN 10 KT TOWARDS DAY BREAK
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY VEERING SE AND THEN S/SW THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP SAT AFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...COLD FROPA ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF SQUALL OF HEAVY
RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS...POSSIBLY THUNDER. STRONG NW
WINDS 30G45-50KT AFTER FROPA. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...A COATING AT NY/NJ AND LI
TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. STRONG NW WINDS 30G45KT IN THE MORNING...
DIMINISHING TO 20-25G35KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SNOW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING RAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EXPECTED. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVY WITH SHWRS COMING THRU AND THE FRONT
ON THE DOORSTEP. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
PRIMARILY DUE TO A LINGERING SEA SWELL. WINDS THEN PICK UP LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE WIND WATCH.
THINKING IS THAT THE OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING THIS...BUT WILL KEEP ALL WATERS UNDER THE WATCH LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...AND THIS BEING A VERY LATE
3RD PERIOD START TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...AT LEAST GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD BE REALIZED.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVSY LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY SUN
EVE...BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN MON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HIGH
PRES TO THE S. SCA IS THEN POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS RETURN FOR MOST OF WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24/JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH, WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING TO OUR
EAST. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND ONE DIVING
TOWARD OUR AREA, STRENGTHENING AS THEY DO SO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP S-SWLY RETURN FLOW IN BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL KEEP US IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD PATTERN. FORECAST
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S ARE
ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WINDS).
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 MPH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 10-15
MPH FARTHER INLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS IS LOCATED OUT TO
OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE TO MAINTAIN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN PA. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE,
PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND RAP, SHOWS THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY PROGRESS THRU OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
POPS WERE LOWERED BOTH WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UPDATES DUE
TO THE TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS FOR A MAINLY DRY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NERN PA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS TO BE OVERHEAD AT
THE START THE DAY. RH CROSS SECTIONS FROM A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.
ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PUTS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL THE
ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN IF WE DON`T FULLY DESTABILIZE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ,
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE ALONG A LINE
WITH STRONG SHEAR THE DRIVING FORCE. SHERBS PARAMETER VALUES FROM
THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE ABOVE 1 ACROSS THE DE VALLEY AND COASTAL PLAIN
AT 18Z AND 21Z...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN THIS HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SETUP.
SPC D2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
S-SW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OFF THE 12Z GFS VERIFY, WE WOULD NEED A WIND ADVISORY FROM PHILA
SOUTH AND EAST AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS TENDS TO BE TOO HIGH WITH THE WIND FIELD
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DEEP
THE MIXING WILL BECOME IF THE MORNING STRATUS HANGS ON LATER INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED, WITH VERY STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AND EVEN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS TO OUR EAST SATURDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES COULD
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
COULD CREATE RAINFALL THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS.
SATURDAY, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ONE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WHILE THE
OTHER DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA. AS THE FIRST ONE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA, IT MAY BRING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SECOND
DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA, IT WILL PULL A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO FRONTS SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WE ONLY HAVE ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH AS WARM AS IT`S BEEN, IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH SNOW TO STICK, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL.
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST 40 TO 50 MPH,
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS, LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.
THE LOW WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE GFS. BUT THEY BOTH AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS RAIN, BUT AS THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO WE HAVE
INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOES A BIT UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED
DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS.
WITH AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS,
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...VFR. SLY WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THRU 21Z BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNSET.
SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CIGS LOWERING
LATE THIS EVENING TO MVFR AND TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WE WERE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THESE LOW CLOUDS THAN THE LAMP/NAM GUIDANCE.
IFR WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE MORNING AS STRATUS
MIXES OUT. SWLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY (25-30 KT). THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA, WHICH MAY LOWER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 20-25 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY LOWER CONDITIONS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 40-50 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. SNOW POSSIBLE LATE AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.&&
.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT BUT GUSTS WILL WILL STILL BE AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT.
SWLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
SEE A REPEAT OF WHAT HAPPENED TODAY WITH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING ON LAND POSSIBLY REACHING THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY AND THUS DO NOT THINK
MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT 35 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, HOWEVER,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING. COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE
EVENING, SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
NEAR STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH A
RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY, POSSIBLY NEAR
GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF LULL
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, POSSIBLY GALE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS DROPPING INTO 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING OF THE FUELS TAKES PLACE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE SO HAVE REMOVED
EVENING POPS ALG THE COAST. STORMS GOT A BOOST AS THEY INTERACTED
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ESP IN BREVARD COUNTY. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AND CAUSED A WEATHER
DELAY/POSTPONEMENT OF THE AIR SHOW THIS EVE AT MLB.
HAVE ADDED A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF ORLANDO
(LAKE/SEMINOLE/VOLUSIA) AS CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH FL
SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THRU SUNRISE AND PASS
OFFSHORE NE FL. SO DO NOT EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT IN
OUR FA.
WARM TONIGHT WITH A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LATE NIGHT
LOW CLOUDS. BLYR WINDS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO STRONG FOR FOG.
SAT (PREVIOUS)...PRECIP WILL BE ENCROACHING UPON THE NRN CWA BY
SUNRISE WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER-SPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT MAXES OVER THE NORTH TO THE L-M80S...WHILE
GUSTY SW FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUNSHINE PUSHES TEMPS WELL INTO THE
U80S TO THE SOUTH. PER SPC SWODY2...INCREASING WIND FIELDS/SFC-LOW
LEVEL CONVG...AIDED BY THE APPROACHING FRONT...MAY PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO ISOLD SVR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTER ABOUT 08Z/09Z EXPECT ONSET OF IFR STRATUS WITH
NOCTURNAL STRATIFICATION/INCREASE IN WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TO
PRODUCE LLWS CONDS FROM KISM-KMCO-KMLB NEWD THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS (LEE/DAB) AFTER
SUNRISE WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS NORTH OF MLB THRU THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SAT...SOME TIGHTENING OF THE LCL PGRAD COUPLED
WITH NOCTURNAL WIND INCREASE WILL PUSH WINDS UP TO NEAR 20KT WELL
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT. WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINE BEYOND 20NM. SW WINDS AROUND 15KT SAT
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING TS WITH STRONG GUSTS/FQT
LTG PSBL. SEAS REMAIN 3FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE...HIGHER
NEAR STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 85 58 71 / 20 60 40 10
MCO 71 84 62 77 / 10 60 40 10
MLB 72 89 65 74 / 20 50 40 20
VRB 73 88 68 75 / 20 40 40 30
LEE 72 81 58 76 / 10 60 30 10
SFB 72 84 62 74 / 10 60 30 10
ORL 72 83 63 76 / 10 60 40 10
FPR 72 89 68 75 / 20 30 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
428 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A trough was extended across the central/western US with a shortwave
embedded in the through across the central Plains to mid-
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A slow moving cold front was
associated with this system and the front will push into the lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. A complex of storms has been pushing
across AL/GA today with the stronger storms across southern
Alabama. This is the area on the northern side of the better CAPE
(around 1000 J/kg) and the southern side of the better shear.
While CAPE values will be decent across the western extent of the
CWA, the area will be slightly less favorable than further
westward. Still the potential for severe storms though into this
evening, particularly across the western portion of the CWA. While
some models have struggled with depicting the showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, the HRRR consistently showed the
showers and thunderstorms pushing into the CWA this afternoon.
Have trended the forecast for the evening towards the HRRR and
thus increased PoPs across the western half of the CWA through
this evening. Some of this activity may linger into tonight, but
then expect a lull before another round moves into SE Alabama late
tonight.
Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees
above normal.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Deep moist southwest flow aloft through Friday night will gradually
flatten becoming zonal by Saturday night as the axis of the broad
trough swings to our east. The associated cold front entering the
Lower Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period will
slowly translate eastward across our CWA Friday night through midday
Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the front with some containing very heavy rainfall. A
surface low is expected to develop along the boundary in the
northern Gulf Friday and lift northeastward across the Florida
Panhandle. This will further enhance convection with heavy rains
and we have issued a flash flood watch for all but the SE Big Bend
and a few of our southeast Georgia counties. The watch is in
effect through 8 am Saturday as we expect widespread QPF amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts between 5 and 6 inches.
In addition to the flash flood threat, we still have the potential
for severe weather with the greatest threat during the Friday to
Friday night time frame. SPC has a portion of western zones
highlighted in the slight risk through tonight and all but our SE
Big bend zones for Friday/Friday night. The greatest threat
continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds but large hail and
isolated tornados are also possible. The cold front is expected to
be roughly along a line from near Albany to Apalachicola around
daybreak Saturday with a marginal risk for severe weather along and
to the east of there. The cold front is expected to clear all
zones by noon or shortly thereafter.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much drier airmass
will filter in through Monday. A dry cold front will drop down from
the north bringing a re-enforcement of drier air on Tuesday that will
continue at least into the middle of the week. A stronger cold front
may arrive late Wednesday or Thursday bringing with it the next
chance for rain. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] MVFR to VFR conditions are across the TAF sites
this afternoon. Cig heights will deteriorate overnight with LIFR
to IFR cigs by the morning. Showers and thunderstorms will push
into the DHN area today and push eastward. At this point, the
chances are too low to mention in the eastern TAFs as the storms
may not persist that long. Winds are gusting 18-28kts this
afternoon as stronger winds above the surface have mixed down, but
winds should weaken late this afternoon into the evening.
&&
.Marine...
Moderate southerly winds will persist through Friday night before
a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday. Marginal exercise
caution conditions are possible at times through Friday,
especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will develop on
Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible from Friday night through Saturday night, mainly across
the western waters.
&&
.Fire Weather...
There are no fire weather concerns. A soaking rain is expected by
Friday if not sooner. Drier air will move in on Saturday and remain
in place for a few days, but is not expected to reach the threshold
for Red Flag criteria.
&&
.Hydrology...
Current conditions across the region show above normal stream flows
in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the Suwannee.
Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola,
Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.
Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight through the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due to
the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists for
widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated
heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest
guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the
Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would
suggest at least that the most impactful river flooding would be
limited to areas already in flood.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through
Saturday morning.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 79 68 78 47 / 40 100 100 50 10
Panama City 70 75 66 73 51 / 40 100 100 40 10
Dothan 68 74 61 73 44 / 70 100 80 10 0
Albany 68 76 63 73 44 / 40 100 100 20 0
Valdosta 67 80 68 77 46 / 30 100 100 60 10
Cross City 68 82 72 79 49 / 20 40 90 70 10
Apalachicola 70 74 69 75 52 / 20 100 100 50 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.Update...
Differences exist between the hi-res models this morning in how
they handle the precipitation across Alabama today. HRRR has been
consistent over the past few runs in bringing showers and
thunderstorms further eastward than initially expected this
afternoon. Given this, have increased PoPs a bit mainly from
Tallahassee and westward for this afternoon. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track.
&&
.Marine...
While the winds are on track across the marine area this morning,
the seas were slightly higher than forecast across the western
areas and thus increased wave heights for this morning slightly.
Also increased the PoPs to slight chance to chance for this
afternoon across the western marine area.
Moderate southerly winds are forecast to persist through Friday
night before a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday.
Marginal exercise caution conditions are possible at times through
Friday, especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will
develop on Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.Prev Discussion [651 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an area of high
pressure across the Southeast, but for an area of deep moist
convection and an associated outflow boundary along the Mississippi
River. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a positive-tilt
trough from the Central Plains to southern CA. The global models
forecast little movement of the upper trough today, and only a slow
southeastward motion of the surface cold front, which will still be
west of the Mississippi River by late afternoon. Given our region`s
distance from the front (and the stronger synoptic scale forcing),
the ascent today will be rather weak but persistent, mainly across
southeast AL and the FL Panhandle. The consensus of MOS guidance and
CAMs indicate that the lift and moisture will not be sufficient for
widespread rain this afternoon, and the forecast PoPs will range
from 40% west and north of Dothan, to less than 20% from Tallahassee
east and southward. Temperatures will be warmer than average, in the
lower to mid 80s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
An active period of weather is on tap beginning tonight and
continuing through early Saturday. Aforementioned positively
tilted trough will make very slow eastward progress through
Friday, before pushing east of the region on Saturday. The
associated front will also move slowly, with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms developing out in front. While a few
thunderstorms will be possible this evening across SE Alabama and
the Panhandle, forcing for ascent will remain weak until later in
the night. More widespread convection is expected to move in from
the west by sunrise on Friday. Initially steep lapse rates and
strong deep layer shear late tonight and early Friday will support
a few strong to severe storms, with hail and damaging winds being
the primary threats. By Friday afternoon into Friday night, the
low-level jet is forecast to strengthen, which may add a threat
for isolated tornadoes. Overall, confidence is low in how this
event will unfold, as there will likely be several rounds of
convection, with each round influencing how the next round
evolves. However, given the available shear, moisture, and
instability, there is plenty of support for the Slight Risk from
SPC for days 1 and 2.
The surface front will exit the area during the day on Saturday,
with a 12z position stretching roughly from Valdosta to
Tallahassee to Apalachicola.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Following Saturday`s frontal passage, guidance is in good
agreement on mostly dry weather through much of the extended, with
west to northwest flow aloft. The relatively dry atmosphere will
allow morning temperatures to dip into the upper 40s, while the
full afternoon sun will push high temperatures well into the 70s.
A front will reinforce this airmass on Tuesday. However, no precip
is expected with this system at the moment.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] As of 11z a band of SHRA/TSRA was moving ENE
at 25 KT across southwest AL. The latest CAMs are split as to
whether or not this rain reaches KDHN by late morning, but we are
opting with the majority of CAMs and forecasting it to just miss
KDHN to the N. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
region today, outside of isolated TSRA this afternoon. There is a
strong signal in the NWP guidance/MOS that IFR cigs/Vis will
develop across most of the area tonight, so we have low-end MVFR
cigs/Vis at most sites. These values may trend lower in subsequent
forecast packages. We expect SHRA and TSRA to develop across
southeast AL and the FL Panhandle toward daybreak Friday.
.Fire Weather...
No concerns.
.Hydrology...
Current conditions across the region show above normal stream
flows in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the
Suwannee. Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee,
Apalachicola, Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.
Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight into the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due
to the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists
for widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with
isolated heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of
the latest guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most
likely in the Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia,
which would suggest at least that the most impactful river
flooding would be limited to areas already in flood.
With the heavier amounts on Friday, and the already wet conditions
across the area, it`s possible that a flash flood watch will be
needed at some point. However, with the heaviest rain arriving
Friday, will hold off on a watch until this afternoon.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 81 70 79 67 76 / 30 30 80 70 50
Panama City 75 69 73 64 71 / 30 50 90 80 40
Dothan 82 69 74 59 71 / 40 70 90 70 10
Albany 83 68 76 61 73 / 30 50 90 70 20
Valdosta 84 67 80 66 75 / 20 20 70 70 60
Cross City 83 68 82 70 77 / 0 20 30 60 70
Apalachicola 75 69 74 67 73 / 20 30 70 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FIEUX
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...CAMP/FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
AREA MORNING RAOBS SHOW DISPARITY IN MEAN MOISTURE BTWN TBW (1.17")
AND XMR (1.39") MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT TBW IS QUITE A BIT DRIER
(AND WARMER) IN THE H90-H60 LAYER. WRLY LOW-MID LVL WIND TRAJECTORY
SHOULD ADVECT SOME OF THIS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT EWD TODAY...WHICH
WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE CIN/CAPPING AND INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH
THE 2KM WRF-ARW AND 3KM HRRR SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
ECM/MAV(GFS-BASED) MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS AT 10 INLAND/20 COASTAL
FOR TODAY WHILE THE MET (NAM-BASED) IS 20 INLAND/30 COAST. BASED ON
THIS...PLAN TO EXPAND PRECIP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST OF -95 (BUT STILL
EAST OF GREATER ORL-SFB) AND NUDGE POPS UP TO 30 AROUND/EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION IN S-SSE
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. CONVECTIVE CU CIGS ABV BKN030 WITH ISOLD MVFR SHRA
DAB-MLB-VRB...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE INVOF VRB-SUA. EXPECT PRECIP TO
STAY EAST OF SFB-ORL-MCO.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE LCL ATLC WATERS
WILL KEEP A MODERATE SE TO SSE BREEZE OF 12-16KT IN PLACE. SEAS
REMAIN 3-4FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. CAUTIONARY STMT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE 20-60NM LEGS.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WEITLICH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...LOW LVL SSW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE LOW
LVLS BELOW 850 MBS ON FRIDAY WITH AIRMASS INITIALLY QUITE DRY WITH
PWAT VALUES FROM 1.1-1.2 INCHES FORECAST AT 12Z. MODEST MOISTENING
THROUGH THE DAY MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MAINLY ERN SECTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM MENTION FOR
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
ATLC WITH SW-W STEERING WINDS AT THE MID LVLS. APPEARS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS NRN SECTIONS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE EVENING POPS IN THE FCST. LOWS WILL BE WARM
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE BIG
BEND IN THE MORNING TO CENTRAL FL BY LATE SAT EVENING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARD NRN AREAS IN
THE MORNING AND REACH SRN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL WSW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY
OFFSHORE. WITH A DELAY IN CONVECTION REACHING SRN AREAS BY LATER IN
THE DAY EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S FROM VERO AND
KENANSVILLE SOUTH TO OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S NRN AREAS. H8-H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS WITH MID LVL
TEMPS TO -9 TO -10 C AT H5 WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO SRN AREAS INTO SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING INTO S FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S...BUT SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM LEESBURG TO LAKE
GEORGE.
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING COOLER READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S FOR MARTIN COUNTY.
MON-THU...A WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST AND BE
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER S/W TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC INTO MID WEEK WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY BEING REINFORCED BY STRONGER NE/E FLOW TUE AFTN
INTO WED. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL...IN THE 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW NEXT FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP THU MAINLY DRY WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THU NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 01/12
SFC WINDS: THRU 31/14Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE E/SE 5-10KTS...E OF KMLB-
KOBE SE 10-15KTS. BTWN 31/14Z-01/02Z...S/SE 8-13KTS XCPT S/SW 7-
10KTS AT KLEE. AFT 01/02Z...S/SW 4-7KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 31/12Z...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD IFR SHRAS. BTWN
31/12Z-31/18Z...E OF KVRB-KOBE SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 31/18Z-
01/02Z SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CANAVERAL BUOYS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SVRL HRS WITH WINDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGES...SEAS
RUNNING 4-6FT. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THRU SUNSET AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC RETREATS SEAWARD AND MAINTAINS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH E/SE BREEZE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY AFT
SUNSET AS A NEW FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NW GOMEX
AND ERODES THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE... WINDS BCMG A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-
5FT OFFSHORE. WITH CONDITIONS JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND LITTLE
TO INDICATE FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE LCL PGRAD...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...BUT CAUTION WILL BE ADVISED AREAWIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL VEER TO SW ON SATURDAY MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHEST
SEAS OFFSHORE TO 4-5 FT. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ELEVATING SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS. FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE MONDAY AND
INCREASE AGAIN FOR MID WEEK A REINFORCING SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS IS
EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID
ATLC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 67 87 69 / 20 10 20 20
MCO 88 67 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
MLB 84 70 87 73 / 20 10 20 20
VRB 85 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 87 67 88 72 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 86 68 90 71 / 20 10 20 10
ORL 87 67 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
FPR 85 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
742 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS
AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG MERIDIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT OVER MONTANA/IDAHO...FEEDING ENERGY BOTH
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO INTO FRACTURED TROUGH ENERGY
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MULTIPLE IMPULSES ARE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SOUTHWEST
TROUGH...SUPPORTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
OHIO/TN VALLEYS TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES.
A FAST ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF ALL THE CONVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INVADING OUR SKIES THIS
MORNING.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY POCKETS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A
DEEP SPRING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL
BE THIS AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...CURRENTLY THE REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED AT THE SURFACE BY
A LARGE AREA OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IS KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR ARE CLEAR WITH CLOUDS MAINLY OF THE HIGH
LEVEL VARIETY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET/BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MOST OF THE WEATHER
"ACTION" WILL BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
TODAY... QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE A SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ONSHORE
OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS
AFTER 17Z. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOP AND MAKE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS...CONDITIONS TO DO APPEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG IT. MOISTURE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS WILL FAVOR A
SUPPRESSIVE COLUMN WITHIN A ZONE OF NVA BEHIND A WEAK DEPARTING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. NORMALLY AGGRESSIVE CAM GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE EVEN HAVING
ISSUES SUPPORTING SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN FEW VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE BELOW 10% AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.
TONIGHT/FRIDAY... QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
(TO OUR NORTH) LOOKS TO BECOME ENERGIZED BY A SERIES OF PASSING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES...WITH RAIN/CONVECTION BLOSSOMING FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SHOW MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS WE WAIT FOR THE EVENTUAL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TO DRIVE THIS FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INCLEMENT WEATHER INTO THE PENINSULA. SO...PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE...NEUTRAL COLUMN IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPRESSION...AND A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF THE I-
75 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN CAM
GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AND INHERITED FORECAST AROUND 30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR INTERIOR ZONES STILL SEEMS APPROPRIATE. HEADING
BACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...RAIN CHANCES TAPER TO LESS
THAN 10% FOR THE BEACHES. DOES LOOK TO BE A CLOSE CALL ON SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...HOWEVER
ENSEMBLE APPROACH SUGGESTS FRONTAL FOCUS AND DEEP LAYER QG FORCING
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING. FOR CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
FOG GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SREF ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
TIME...AND AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD...THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET LATE IN THE SEASON FOR SEAFOG AS
THE SHELF WATERS BEGIN TO WARM UP...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
DEWPOINT SURGE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-FOG OVER
COOLER SST POCKETS. LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE AND LATEST SPORT SST
ANALYSIS WOULD TEND TO SIDE WITH THE CONCLUSION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL A BIT SHORT OF SEA-FOG THRESHOLDS. WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG TO
THE LAND GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND PATCHY
FOG TO THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...BUT STOP
SHORT OF PREDICTION DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND ACROSS BAJA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
CREEPS TOWARD FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH A
DRIER COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC. ON MONDAY ROBUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE STATE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS RENOURISHES THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLING IN
BEHIND. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS ALREADY MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
MID-WEST BRINING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN AROUND KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER
ANY LIGHT FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO
FRIDAY AS FLOW MAKES IT WAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL..AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 70 85 72 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 86 69 87 71 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 87 68 89 71 / 10 0 20 10
SRQ 79 69 79 72 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 85 67 86 71 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 81 71 83 73 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG MERIDIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT OVER MONTANA/IDAHO...FEEDING ENERGY BOTH
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO INTO FRACTURED TROUGH ENERGY
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MULTIPLE IMPULSES ARE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SOUTHWEST
TROUGH...SUPPORTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
OHIO/TN VALLEYS TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES.
A FAST ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF ALL THE CONVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INVADING OUR SKIES THIS
MORNING.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY POCKETS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A
DEEP SPRING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL
BE THIS AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...CURRENTLY THE REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED AT THE SURFACE BY
A LARGE AREA OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IS KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR ARE CLEAR WITH CLOUDS MAINLY OF THE HIGH
LEVEL VARIETY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET/BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MOST OF THE WEATHER
"ACTION" WILL BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
TODAY... QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE A SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ONSHORE
OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS
AFTER 17Z. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOP AND MAKE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS...CONDITIONS TO DO APPEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG IT. MOISTURE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS WILL FAVOR A
SUPPRESSIVE COLUMN WITHIN A ZONE OF NVA BEHIND A WEAK DEPARTING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. NORMALLY AGGRESSIVE CAM GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE EVEN HAVING
ISSUES SUPPORTING SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN FEW VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE BELOW 10% AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.
TONIGHT/FRIDAY... QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
(TO OUR NORTH) LOOKS TO BECOME ENERGIZED BY A SERIES OF PASSING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES...WITH RAIN/CONVECTION BLOSSOMING FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SHOW MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS WE WAIT FOR THE EVENTUAL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TO DRIVE THIS FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INCLEMENT WEATHER INTO THE PENINSULA. SO...PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE...NEUTRAL COLUMN IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPRESSION...AND A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF THE I-
75 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN CAM
GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AND INHERITED FORECAST AROUND 30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR INTERIOR ZONES STILL SEEMS APPROPRIATE. HEADING
BACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...RAIN CHANCES TAPER TO LESS
THAN 10% FOR THE BEACHES. DOES LOOK TO BE A CLOSE CALL ON SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...HOWEVER
ENSEMBLE APPROACH SUGGESTS FRONTAL FOCUS AND DEEP LAYER QG FORCING
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING. FOR CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
FOG GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SREF ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
TIME...AND AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD...THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET LATE IN THE SEASON FOR SEAFOG AS
THE SHELF WATERS BEGIN TO WARM UP...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
DEWPOINT SURGE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-FOG OVER
COOLER SST POCKETS. LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE AND LATEST SPORT SST
ANALYSIS WOULD TEND TO SIDE WITH THE CONCLUSION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL A BIT SHORT OF SEA-FOG THRESHOLDS. WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG TO
THE LAND GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND PATCHY
FOG TO THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...BUT STOP
SHORT OF PREDICTION DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND ACROSS BAJA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
CREEPS TOWARD FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH A
DRIER COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC. ON MONDAY ROBUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE STATE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS RENOURISHES THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLING IN
BEHIND. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS ALREADY MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
MID-WEST BRINING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN AROUND KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER
ANY LIGHT FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO
FRIDAY AS FLOW MAKES IT WAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL..AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 70 85 72 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 86 69 87 71 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 87 68 89 71 / 10 0 20 10
SRQ 79 69 79 72 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 85 67 86 71 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 81 71 83 73 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1006 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
AND CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS THE H85 JET WILL HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP BUT BASED ON PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY THE THREAT IS TOO LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. HIGH SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INDICATES A
CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS LOW BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND HRRR PLUS PREVIOUS
CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS NORTH. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW/W ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KT LLJ DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z...WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM S/SW TO W/NW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE HEAVIEST STORMS HAVE NOW PUSHED OFFSHORE. INSTABILITY HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED...BUT ISOLATED...EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. RAP INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES GOING NEGATIVE...AS LOW AS -1 TO -1.5C BY 1-2
AM. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE--
UPWARDS OF 50-60 KT--WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTMS REDEVELOP LATE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
RIGHT NOW...THE BULK OF ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16.
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH THE
COLD FRONT LIKELY SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
ONGOING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS
IMPROVED AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL LINGER
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY AT LEAST MID DAY AND THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN WORK IN LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. POPS FOR LAND AREAS
COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS DRY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS
TURN MORE OUT OF THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...BUT CLEARING SHOULD FINALLY TAKE PLACE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP DRY
AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...THEN BACK TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE UPPER
RIDGING PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RISK FOR TSTMS HAS ENDED AT THE TERMINALS AS THE MAIN LINE HAS
MOVED EAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS NO LOWER THAN MVFR. ACTIVITY
WILL END AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY MID-
MORNING SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF STRONG
TSTMS EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD STABILIZE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS TIPPING BACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE BACK TO 10-15 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
15-20 KT LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE...4-5 FT
OFFSHORE.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL THEN LIKELY BE A DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
COLD ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME/ALL OF
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
927 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE HEAVIEST STORMS HAVE NOW PUSHED OFFSHORE. INSTABILITY HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED...BUT ISOLATED...EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. RAP INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES GOING NEGATIVE...AS LOW AS -1 TO -1.5C BY 1-2
AM. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE--
UPWARDS OF 50-60 KT--WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTMS REDEVELOP LATE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
RIGHT NOW...THE BULK OF ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16.
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH THE
COLD FRONT LIKELY SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
ONGOING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS
IMPROVED AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL LINGER
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY AT LEAST MID DAY AND THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN WORK IN LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. POPS FOR LAND AREAS
COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS DRY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS
TURN MORE OUT OF THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...BUT CLEARING SHOULD FINALLY TAKE PLACE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP DRY
AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...THEN BACK TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE UPPER
RIDGING PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RISK FOR TSTMS HAS ENDED AT THE TERMINALS AS THE MAIN LINE HAS
MOVED EAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS NO LOWER THAN MVFR. ACTIVITY
WILL END AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY MID-
MORNING SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF STRONG
TSTMS EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD STABILIZE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS TIPPING BACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE BACK TO 10-15 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
15-20 KT LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE...4-5 FT
OFFSHORE.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL THEN LIKELY BE A DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
COLD ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME/ALL OF
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
350 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH GREATEST UPPER LIFT APPEARS
TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES OUT OF GA
INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND
STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. FRONT TO OUR WEST TO ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH DUE TO A
SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE GENERALLY TO OUR WEST...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE CSRA...AGS/DNL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT DIFFICULT SO WILL USE
VCSH FOR NOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME LLWS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BY ONGOING AROUND SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS
TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH BEST S/W ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MOVE MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH
THE BULK THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
SE AL. LATEST HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES OUT OF GA INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IS WILL POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND
FIELD WITH GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY
FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H8. SPC DAY TWO CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250MB JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA
WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE
OF WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. FRONT TO OUR WEST TO ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH DUE TO A
SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE GENERALLY TO OUR WEST...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE CSRA...AGS/DNL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT DIFFICULT SO WILL USE
VCSH FOR NOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME LLWS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BY ONGOING AROUND SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS
TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GA
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN RAIN
SHIELD AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO
ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE CWFA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING. THE ARW/WRF ARE QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE HRRR (WHICH ONLY GOES THROUGH 20Z). THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY A BIT
MORE SHOWERY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE WRF/ARW HAVE A LOT MORE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH SEVERAL BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. IF THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDS...THEN THE HRRR LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...IF BREAKS START TO FORM IN THE STRATUS...SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND THE WRF/ARW SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA REMAINS
FAIRLY FREE OF THE STRATUS PLAGUING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA. THIS MAY GIVE THE ATMOS TIME TO DESTABILIZE A BIT LONGER IN
THIS AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PROGGING THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING
MIDDAY. THE GFS HOLDS IT TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT DO
THINK ANY COLD POOL WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DO THINK THERE IS SOME GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
EXPECTED COULD MUDDY THE WATERS A BIT DECREASING THE POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. DO THINK THERE MAY
BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ROUGHLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAY
DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FIRE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HAVENT SEEN THIS MUCH
UPPER LEVEL/JET DYNAMICS IN A LONG WHILE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY.
THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE
STATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND IMPACTS ARE LARGELY
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH GEORGIA AS BEST
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
31
HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES GA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL GA. ATMOS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE TREND
CONTINUES FOR THIS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN NUDGED
UPWARDS A BIT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP IFR FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO INCREASE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
WITH A LULL BETWEEN 12-18Z TOMORROW. EXPECT MUCH OF CONVECTION
SOUTH OF KATL AREA BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A PROB30.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
ATWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 80 70 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 80 70 50
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 80 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 80 60 40
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 70 70 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 80 70 40
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 60 50 70 60
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 80 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 80 70 50
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 40 40 70 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...ATWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1204 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GA
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN RAIN
SHIELD AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO
ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE CWFA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING. THE ARW/WRF ARE QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE HRRR (WHICH ONLY GOES THROUGH 20Z). THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY A BIT
MORE SHOWERY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE WRF/ARW HAVE A LOT MORE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH SEVERAL BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. IF THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDS...THEN THE HRRR LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...IF BREAKS START TO FORM IN THE STRATUS...SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND THE WRF/ARW SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA REMAINS
FAIRLY FREE OF THE STRATUS PLAGUING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA. THIS MAY GIVE THE ATMOS TIME TO DESTABILIZE A BIT LONGER IN
THIS AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PROGGING THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING
MIDDAY. THE GFS HOLDS IT TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT DO
THINK ANY COLD POOL WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DO THINK THERE IS SOME GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
EXPECTED COULD MUDDY THE WATERS A BIT DECREASING THE POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. DO THINK THERE MAY
BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ROUGHLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAY
DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FIRE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HAVENT SEEN THIS MUCH
UPPER LEVEL/JET DYNAMICS IN A LONG WHILE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY.
THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE
STATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND IMPACTS ARE LARGELY
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH GEORGIA AS BEST
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
31
HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES GA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL GA. ATMOS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE TREND
CONTINUES FOR THIS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN NUDGED
UPWARDS A BIT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
AVIATION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
12Z UPDATE...
TIMING FOR THUNDER AT ATL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL LOOKS GOOD AT AROUND 20Z. CIGS HAVE REMAINED MVFR THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THEM INTO INCREASE TO ABOVE 3KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SW SIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 70 80 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 70 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 70 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 70 60 30
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 60 80 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 70 60 30
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 50 60 80 70
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 70 50 20
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 70 80 40
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 30 40 80 90
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1100 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VIGOROUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS
MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THE WEAK/MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH BEST S/W ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MOVE MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC LATE TODAY. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES OUT OF GA INTO SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME TWEAKS TO POP
GRIDS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
SUN EARLY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IS WILL POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND
FIELD WITH GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY
FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H8. SPC DAY TWO CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250MB JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA
WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE
OF WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. FRONT TO OUR WEST TO ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH DUE TO A
SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN DIURNAL HEATING POSSIBLE TODAY
BUT THE MAIN ACTION EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE CSRA...AGS/DNL...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE CWFA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING. THE ARW/WRF ARE QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE HRRR (WHICH ONLY GOES THROUGH 20Z). THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY A BIT
MORE SHOWERY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE WRF/ARW HAVE A LOT MORE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH SEVERAL BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. IF THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDS...THEN THE HRRR LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...IF BREAKS START TO FORM IN THE STRATUS...SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND THE WRF/ARW SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA REMAINS
FAIRLY FREE OF THE STRATUS PLAGUING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA. THIS MAY GIVE THE ATMOS TIME TO DESTABILIZE A BIT LONGER IN
THIS AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PROGGING THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING
MIDDAY. THE GFS HOLDS IT TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT DO
THINK ANY COLD POOL WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DO THINK THERE IS SOME GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
EXPECTED COULD MUDDY THE WATERS A BIT DECREASING THE POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. DO THINK THERE MAY
BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ROUGHLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAY
DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FIRE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HAVENT SEEN THIS MUCH
UPPER LEVEL/JET DYNAMICS IN A LONG WHILE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY.
THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE
STATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND IMPACTS ARE LARGELY
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH GEORGIA AS BEST
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
31
HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES GA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL GA. ATMOS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE TREND
CONTINUES FOR THIS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN NUDGED
UPWARDS A BIT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
TIMING FOR THUNDER AT ATL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL LOOKS GOOD AT AROUND 20Z. CIGS HAVE REMAINED MVFR THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THEM INTO INCREASE TO ABOVE 3KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SW SIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 70 80 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 70 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 70 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 70 60 30
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 60 80 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 70 60 30
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 50 60 80 70
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 70 50 20
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 70 80 40
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 30 40 80 90
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.
DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE CWFA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING. THE ARW/WRF ARE QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE HRRR (WHICH ONLY GOES THROUGH 20Z). THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY A BIT
MORE SHOWERY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE WRF/ARW HAVE A LOT MORE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH SEVERAL BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. IF THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDS...THEN THE HRRR LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...IF BREAKS START TO FORM IN THE STRATUS...SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND THE WRF/ARW SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA REMAINS
FAIRLY FREE OF THE STRATUS PLAGUING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA. THIS MAY GIVE THE ATMOS TIME TO DESTABILIZE A BIT LONGER IN
THIS AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PROGGING THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING
MIDDAY. THE GFS HOLDS IT TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT DO
THINK ANY COLD POOL WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DO THINK THERE IS SOME GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
EXPECTED COULD MUDDY THE WATERS A BIT DECREASING THE POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. DO THINK THERE MAY
BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ROUGHLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAY
DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FIRE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HAVENT SEEN THIS MUCH
UPPER LEVEL/JET DYNAMICS IN A LONG WHILE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY.
THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE
STATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND IMPACTS ARE LARGELY
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH GEORGIA AS BEST
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
31
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES GA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL GA. ATMOS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE TREND
CONTINUES FOR THIS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN NUDGED
UPWARDS A BIT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
TIMING FOR THUNDER AT ATL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE CIGS THIS
MORNING...MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING CIGS TO GO AS LOW...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE 010 SO WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER.
WINDS MAY TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SW SIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 70 80 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 70 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 70 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 70 60 30
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 60 80 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 70 60 30
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 50 60 80 70
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 70 50 20
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 70 80 40
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 30 40 80 90
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...
EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PEACH...
PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
629 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH
IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB
CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500
FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME
SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON
COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.
A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR
EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS
WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY
AREAS.
OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO
CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE
LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO
YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY
OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER
AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW.
FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR TAF SITES ARE:
- QUICK END TO SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 KT SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
- PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINAL
SITES AT 2315Z...MARKING AN END TO SHRA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/CIG
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED 290-310 DEG BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WERE GUSTING TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHWEST WI...THOUGH
GUST MAGNITUDES SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCT/BKN ABOVE 4 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL.
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING...WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH AND BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AND BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO GUST 40+ KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
320 PM CDT
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A
PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES
THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
1115 AM CDT
THE PRIMARY THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS WELL INTACT AT THIS
POINT...AND THAT IS AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM PERIOD
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION...EACH STEERING IN COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(-25C AT 500MB) AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES (7.5 C/KM).
LATEST HAND ANALYSIS INDICATES A 992 MB LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THAT
BY 30-50 MILES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FOCI FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM FRONT IS HUNG UP NEAR THE WISCONSIN STATE
LINE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RACINE AND WAUKEGAN. IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE CWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S. SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED DUE TO THE
BROKEN LOW-BASED CUMULUS OVERHEAD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS.
THE STORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE ROOTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME SIGNS ON RADAR AND SATELLITE OF DEVELOPMENT TRYING
TO GET GOING SOUTH TOWARD KEWANEE AND PEORIA. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
A GRADUAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH CELLS AS THEY
MOVE EAST GIVEN THEY ARE COLLOCATED WITH RAP INDICATED MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG (ML VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG). ALSO A STRONG
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL JET OF 80-100 KT SAMPLED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ASSISTING IN
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. STORM MAGNITUDE AND POSSIBLY EVEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL CAPE AND SLIGHTLY WORKED OVER AREA OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES IN THE PAST HOUR WERE PULSEY IN NATURE INDICATING THAT
EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY THE SHEAR COULD COMPENSATE FOR A
BRIEF LARGE HAIL THREAT.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...EXISTING OR
DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROPENSITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTY POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
STORMS MOVE OVER A DEEPER MIXED LAYER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
LIMITED PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LOW ARE
PREVENTING MUCH OF A BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND RESPONSE...SO THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ZERO GIVEN
THE LOW MAGNITUDE AND DISCRETE STORM NATURE ANTICIPATED.
MTF/JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN
TEMP TRENDS WITH FRONT AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED BACK DOOR FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FRIDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SAGGED SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR NORTH. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES APPARENT THIS MORNING...ONE OVER SE MN AND THE OTHER
OVER EASTERN MO...GENERAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THESE
WAVES COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT RANDOM SCTD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SFC LOW OVER IA WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER LATER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL REMAIN VEERED
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE VEERED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND ANTICIPATED MODEST DESTABILIZATION DUE IN PART TO
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ADVECTING IN WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE
MORNING OVER NORTHERN IL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DESPITE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WEAK SURFACE HEATING...IT APPEARS LIKELY MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 500 J/KG EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA IN NW IN. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK...WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 50-70KT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG SHEAR AND RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
MAY BE SLOW TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS SHEAR COULD
INITIALLY RIP UPDRAFTS APART. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WOULD GENERALLY
TEND TO FAVOR RATHER LIMITED HAIL THREAT TODAY...THOUGH GIVEN THE
WEAK CONVERGENCE STORMS COULD REMAIN MORE CELLULAR WHICH GIVEN THE
SHEAR WOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS
INTENSIFY/MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A MODEST HAIL
THREAT AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH WITH
TIME STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR EASTERN CWA AND POINTS EAST. AS THE LINEAR EVOLUTION
OCCURS LOOK FOR WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO INCREASE A BIT. THE
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND VERY STRONG SHEAR...ALBEIT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY
STRONGER OR WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE TO
OCCUR.
STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY IF NOT VERY SOON AFTER 21Z.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE FLOW COULD TURN NORTHERLY
ENOUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW A LAKE
ENHANCED FRONT TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY SURGE SOUTH DOWN THE
LAKE AND INLAND A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE
A MODEST TEMP DROP IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT...SHOULD A LAKE ENHANCED FRONT INDEED DEVELOP A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPS (INTO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S) WOULD OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS (AOB -30C AT
500MB) SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING
LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SEE GRAUPEL OR PERHAPS EVEN WET
SNOW FLAKES WITH THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS FRIDAY. SHOWERS END
FRIDAY EVENING AND WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER
#2 WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE A BIT LESS WITH THIS WAVE AND SHOULD FAVOR MORE EASTERN CWA.
ONE OF THE BIGGER STORIES WITH SAT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS OVER 45 MPH)
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
CLIPPER #3 WHICH GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TO HELP MOST AREAS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. AS
CLIPPER MOVES EAST THE COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST FROM THE LOW WILL
DROP ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.
TYPICALLY COLD FRONTS WITH CLIPPERS ARE DRY...BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS
FRONT. QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN RINSE AND REPEAT...
NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING...BUT
STILL QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TAFS ARE:
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THEM THROUGH 20Z
- WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS
- WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER
- IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY DURING THE FRI MORNING RUSH
AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH MULTIPLE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA PRIOR TO 1930Z-2000Z. VISIBILITY AS LOW AS
3/4SM HAS BEEN REPORTED UNDER THESE STORMS SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO
SEE BRIEF EVEN LOWER VISIBILITY THAN INDICATED IN THE TEMPO. LOW
FREEZING LEVELS AND THE NATURE OF THE STORMS ARE FAVORING SMALL
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ONES. THE STORMS WILL BE ROOTED JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. AS THAT PASSES WINDS WILL TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY.
BEHIND THE STORMS...A WINDOW OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGS OVER. THESE WOULD SEEM MOST FAVORED OVER FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST THUS
FAVORING DRAGGING THE COOL AIR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN WISCONSIN
OVER LOCAL AIRPORTS. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. THESE COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY. THE PROBLEM IS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. SO WHILE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THAT AND ITS DURATION /AND THUS HOW LOW THE CLOUD BASES BECOME/
IS ALL QUITE LOW.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
332 AM CDT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTEND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE. THIS IS HELPING
TO CREATE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTH
HALF...AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30KT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH HALF. WITH THIS LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
LAKE LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL THEN BECOME MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS THROUGH THIS TIME LIKELY LOCATED OVER AREAS
EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. WITH THE ANTICIPATED LOWER SPEEDS AND
WAVES NEAR WINTHROP/WILMETTE HARBORS...WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH FOR
TODAY...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS NOW EXPECTED. STILL
MONITORING STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH GALES STILL APPEARING
TO BE LIKELY DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
9 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1129 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
1115 AM CDT
THE PRIMARY THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS WELL INTACT AT THIS
POINT...AND THAT IS AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM PERIOD
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION...EACH STEERING IN COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(-25C AT 500MB) AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES (7.5 C/KM).
LATEST HAND ANALYSIS INDICATES A 992 MB LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THAT
BY 30-50 MILES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FOCI FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM FRONT IS HUNG UP NEAR THE WISCONSIN STATE
LINE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RACINE AND WAUKEGAN. IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE CWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S. SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED DUE TO THE
BROKEN LOW-BASED CUMULUS OVERHEAD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS.
THE STORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE ROOTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME SIGNS ON RADAR AND SATELLITE OF DEVELOPMENT TRYING
TO GET GOING SOUTH TOWARD KEWANEE AND PEORIA. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
A GRADUAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH CELLS AS THEY
MOVE EAST GIVEN THEY ARE COLLOCATED WITH RAP INDICATED MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG (ML VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG). ALSO A STRONG
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL JET OF 80-100 KT SAMPLED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ASSISTING IN
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. STORM MAGNITUDE AND POSSIBLY EVEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL CAPE AND SLIGHTLY WORKED OVER AREA OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES IN THE PAST HOUR WERE PULSEY IN NATURE INDICATING THAT
EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY THE SHEAR COULD COMPENSATE FOR A
BRIEF LARGE HAIL THREAT.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...EXISTING OR
DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROPENSITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTY POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
STORMS MOVE OVER A DEEPER MIXED LAYER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
LIMITED PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LOW ARE
PREVENTING MUCH OF A BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND RESPONSE...SO THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ZERO GIVEN
THE LOW MAGNITUDE AND DISCRETE STORM NATURE ANTICIPATED.
MTF/JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN
TEMP TRENDS WITH FRONT AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED BACK DOOR FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FRIDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SAGGED SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR NORTH. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES APPARENT THIS MORNING...ONE OVER SE MN AND THE OTHER
OVER EASTERN MO...GENERAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THESE
WAVES COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT RANDOM SCTD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SFC LOW OVER IA WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER LATER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL REMAIN VEERED
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE VEERED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND ANTICIPATED MODEST DESTABILIZATION DUE IN PART TO
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ADVECTING IN WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE
MORNING OVER NORTHERN IL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DESPITE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WEAK SURFACE HEATING...IT APPEARS LIKELY MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 500 J/KG EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA IN NW IN. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK...WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 50-70KT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG SHEAR AND RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
MAY BE SLOW TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS SHEAR COULD
INITIALLY RIP UPDRAFTS APART. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WOULD GENERALLY
TEND TO FAVOR RATHER LIMITED HAIL THREAT TODAY...THOUGH GIVEN THE
WEAK CONVERGENCE STORMS COULD REMAIN MORE CELLULAR WHICH GIVEN THE
SHEAR WOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS
INTENSIFY/MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A MODEST HAIL
THREAT AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH WITH
TIME STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR EASTERN CWA AND POINTS EAST. AS THE LINEAR EVOLUTION
OCCURS LOOK FOR WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO INCREASE A BIT. THE
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND VERY STRONG SHEAR...ALBEIT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY
STRONGER OR WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE TO
OCCUR.
STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY IF NOT VERY SOON AFTER 21Z.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE FLOW COULD TURN NORTHERLY
ENOUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW A LAKE
ENHANCED FRONT TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY SURGE SOUTH DOWN THE
LAKE AND INLAND A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE
A MODEST TEMP DROP IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT...SHOULD A LAKE ENHANCED FRONT INDEED DEVELOP A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPS (INTO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S) WOULD OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
324 AM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS (AOB -30C AT
500MB) SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING
LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SEE GRAUPEL OR PERHAPS EVEN WET
SNOW FLAKES WITH THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS FRIDAY. SHOWERS END
FRIDAY EVENING AND WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER
#2 WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE A BIT LESS WITH THIS WAVE AND SHOULD FAVOR MORE EASTERN CWA.
ONE OF THE BIGGER STORIES WITH SAT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS OVER 45 MPH)
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
CLIPPER #3 WHICH GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TO HELP MOST AREAS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. AS
CLIPPER MOVES EAST THE COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST FROM THE LOW WILL
DROP ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.
TYPICALLY COLD FRONTS WITH CLIPPERS ARE DRY...BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS
FRONT. QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN RINSE AND REPEAT...
NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING...BUT
STILL QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS THIS
MORNING...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT FORCING THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOL/SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WORKING EAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE RFD
TERMINAL HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF OBSERVING TS IN THE NEAR
TERM. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT TO
INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE LOW
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING FOR A TWO TO
THREE HOUR WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS...AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY TIMING CHANGES AT THIS. THUNDER WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...WITH A SLOW UPWARD TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. DO THINK THE UPWARD TREND COULD BE SLOWER FOR THE
DPA/RFD WITH THESE TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BETTER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING TO TRANSITION TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO HELP SHIFT THEM OVER TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
332 AM CDT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTEND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE. THIS IS HELPING
TO CREATE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTH
HALF...AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30KT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH HALF. WITH THIS LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
LAKE LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL THEN BECOME MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS THROUGH THIS TIME LIKELY LOCATED OVER AREAS
EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. WITH THE ANTICIPATED LOWER SPEEDS AND
WAVES NEAR WINTHROP/WILMETTE HARBORS...WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH FOR
TODAY...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS NOW EXPECTED. STILL
MONITORING STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH GALES STILL APPEARING
TO BE LIKELY DURING THAT TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
9 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...A COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW...STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER SE MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 50S.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.
EXCELLENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. HRRR SHOWS AND EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE NEAR 00Z. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
A CERTAINTY AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE STORMS MAY EXIT BEFORE OR RIGHT NEAR 00Z. BEST FORCING
IS LOST BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WILL TREND
LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
UNITEDSTATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN INDIANA WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE SECOND PASSING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WEST
WINDS AND ONLY ACCESS TO LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS
GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MID
LEVEL SATURATION WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THUS A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULES OUT...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF
INDIANA...WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME
LOW CHC POPS AT NORTH AND EAST OF INDY...MAINLY DRY POPS
SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON
SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST. THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS DIVERTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW
PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT
WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KBMG...BY ISSUANCE TIME. WILL SEE
CONVECTION LINGER IN THE KBMG AREA UNTIL ABOUT 010100Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND SURFACE GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BY 010200Z. AT THIS TIME...DON/T THINK CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF
INITIAL LINE.
CEILINGS 040-050 EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY
SNEAK INTO KLAF AFTER 010600Z. SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 250-280
DEGREES WILL DIMINISH TO 7-10 KTS BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...A COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW...STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER SE MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 50S.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.
EXCELLENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. HRRR SHOWS AND EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE NEAR 00Z. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
A CERTAINTY AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE STORMS MAY EXIT BEFORE OR RIGHT NEAR 00Z. BEST FORCING
IS LOST BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WILL TREND
LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
UNITEDSTATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN INDIANA WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE SECOND PASSING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WEST
WINDS AND ONLY ACCESS TO LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS
GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MID
LEVEL SATURATION WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THUS A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULES OUT...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF
INDIANA...WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME
LOW CHC POPS AT NORTH AND EAST OF INDY...MAINLY DRY POPS
SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON
SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST. THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS DIVERTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW
PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT
WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN INDIANA SHOULD REACH
THE KIND TERMINAL AROUND 312200Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KT OBSERVED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE.
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE LINE...SO MAY LIFT
THE CEILINGS THIS EVENING ABOVE MVFR ON FUTURE UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.
DRY SLOT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AHEAD COLD FRONT HAS FILLED IN
QUITE A BIT BUT WILL STILL CARRY A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
PRIOR TO PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR AHEAD OF
IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DESTABILIZING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM KRFD AND KBMI
TO KSTL. MODELS DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY 311900Z THAT MOVE INTO INDIANA AFFECTING KLAF
AND KHUF BY AROUND 20Z THEN KIND AND KBMG AROUND 312100Z WITH ALL
TAF SITES CLEAR OF CONVECTION BY 010000Z. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUD DECKS FROM 2000-3000 FEET PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
WILL KEEP SUCH DECKS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS. QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE DECKS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM CLEARING TO OVERCAST DURING
THE NIGHT THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER DECKS AROUND 02Z- 03Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...A COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW...STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER SE MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 50S.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.
EXCELLENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. HRRR SHOWS AND EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE NEAR 00Z. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
A CERTAINTY AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE STORMS MAY EXIT BEFORE OR RIGHT NEAR 00Z. BEST FORCING
IS LOST BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WILL TREND
LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
UNITEDSTATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN INDIANA WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE SECOND PASSING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WEST
WINDS AND ONLY ACCESS TO LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS
GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MID
LEVEL SATURATION WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THUS A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULES OUT...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF
INDIANA...WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME
LOW CHC POPS AT NORTH AND EAST OF INDY...MAINLY DRY POPS
SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON
SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST. THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS DIVERTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW
PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT
WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.
DRY SLOT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AHEAD COLD FRONT HAS FILLED IN
QUITE A BIT BUT WILL STILL CARRY A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
PRIOR TO PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR AHEAD OF
IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DESTABILIZING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM KRFD AND KBMI
TO KSTL. MODELS DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY 311900Z THAT MOVE INTO INDIANA AFFECTING KLAF
AND KHUF BY AROUND 20Z THEN KIND AND KBMG AROUND 312100Z WITH ALL
TAF SITES CLEAR OF CONVECTION BY 010000Z. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUD DECKS FROM 2000-3000 FEET PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
WILL KEEP SUCH DECKS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS. QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE DECKS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM CLEARING TO OVERCAST DURING
THE NIGHT THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER DECKS AROUND 02Z- 03Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
141 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS DIG TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS NW ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RADAR SHOWS A WAVE OF PRECIP
EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 50S.
AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...A
FEW DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR SUGGESTS
MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS HAVE REDUCED
POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASED POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL SATURDAY.
MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND BRING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THIS RUN HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW
PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT
WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.
DRY SLOT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AHEAD COLD FRONT HAS FILLED IN
QUITE A BIT BUT WILL STILL CARRY A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
PRIOR TO PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR AHEAD OF
IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DESTABILIZING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM KRFD AND KBMI
TO KSTL. MODELS DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY 311900Z THAT MOVE INTO INDIANA AFFECTING KLAF
AND KHUF BY AROUND 20Z THEN KIND AND KBMG AROUND 312100Z WITH ALL
TAF SITES CLEAR OF CONVECTION BY 010000Z. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUD DECKS FROM 2000-3000 FEET PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
WILL KEEP SUCH DECKS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS. QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE DECKS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM CLEARING TO OVERCAST DURING
THE NIGHT THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER DECKS AROUND 02Z- 03Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
106 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS DIG TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS NW ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RADAR SHOWS A WAVE OF PRECIP
EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 50S.
AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...A
FEW DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR SUGGESTS
MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS HAVE REDUCED
POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASED POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL SATURDAY.
MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND BRING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THIS RUN HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOLER PATTERN AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S/30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.
DRY SLOT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AHEAD COLD FRONT HAS FILLED IN
QUITE A BIT BUT WILL STILL CARRY A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
PRIOR TO PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR AHEAD OF
IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DESTABILIZING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM KRFD AND KBMI
TO KSTL. MODELS DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY 311900Z THAT MOVE INTO INDIANA AFFECTING KLAF
AND KHUF BY AROUND 20Z THEN KIND AND KBMG AROUND 312100Z WITH ALL
TAF SITES CLEAR OF CONVECTION BY 010000Z. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUD DECKS FROM 2000-3000 FEET PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
WILL KEEP SUCH DECKS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS. QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE DECKS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM CLEARING TO OVERCAST DURING
THE NIGHT THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER DECKS AROUND 02Z- 03Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1240 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ARE SOUTH OF US-30 AND WEST OF I-69. COLDER WEATHER
WILL SETTLE IN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FCST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE/SHOWERS
WITHIN LLJ CORE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY 17-18Z LEAVING A
DRY/WINDY EARLY-MID AFTN FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NARROW DRY/WARM
SECTOR LIFTS IN. BULK OF GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWERS/SCT STORMS ACCOMPANYING TRAILING COLD FRONT ON NOSE OF 110
KT MID LVL JET...INTO OUR IN/MI ZONES 19-21Z AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69 21-00Z. SLIGHT/CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS INTO MAINLY OUR INDIANA COUNTIES GIVEN STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND POTENTIAL (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) FOR UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IF MID-UPPER 60 SFC
TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED. SHEAR/BUOYANCY BALANCE OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT
GREAT GIVEN LIMITED SFC HEATING AND ALMOST TOO MUCH SHEAR/FLOW. AS
A RESULT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS (ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE) TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
COMPLICATED NR TERM OWING TO ARCH OF UPSTREAM CONVN DVLPG FM EC
MO THROUGH SW IL WITHIN LL THETA-E BULGE ALG NOSE OF INCREASING
LLJ. BULK OF NR TERM CAMS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH
SUNRISE PRIMARILY THROUGH NW HALF. MEANWHILE SHRA ASSOCD/W WKNG
MCV LIFTING THROUGH SW MI ATTM CONT TO WANE.
BULK OF MORNING ACTIVITY XPCD TO LIFT OUT ACRS WRN PORTIONS BY 14Z
AND DIMINISH THROUGH NW OH BFR NOON. ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO
INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
CROSSING NRN LWR MI. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WRT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR RECOVERY WITHIN CLD CONTAMINATED WARM
SECTOR. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML
STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER...STG 0-6KM SHEAR WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED CAPE WOULD SUGGEST CB GROWTH STRUGGLES.
HWVR ASSUMING RAP TRENDS CORRECT...LG HAIL/ISOLD WIND RISK CAN BE
XPCD OVR WRN INDIANA ZONES LT THIS AFTN IN PROXIMITY TO MODEL
DERIVED AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD THAT RUNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THIS VERY COLD AIR AFTER
PASSAGE CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON NIGHTS AFTER PASSAGE TO DROP WELL
DOWN INTO THE 20S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
ANY SNOW OR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. TWO MORE OF THESE CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY...AND THEN THE
NEXT ONE TWO DAYS LATER BY WEDNESDAY. THE TRACKS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW MVFR CIGS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
HIGH MVFR OR LOW VFR BY MID-LATE AFTN AS DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING
ENSUES. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SHOWERS/SCT STORMS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-LATE AFTN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION TRACK NE INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES SOME. WINDS
VEER/DIMINISH MORE WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL TONIGHT WITH LOW (MVFR
FUEL ALT) STRATOCU EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FCST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE/SHOWERS
WITHIN LLJ CORE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY 17-18Z LEAVING A
DRY/WINDY EARLY-MID AFTN FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NARROW DRY/WARM
SECTOR LIFTS IN. BULK OF GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWERS/SCT STORMS ACCOMPANYING TRAILING COLD FRONT ON NOSE OF 110
KT MID LVL JET...INTO OUR IN/MI ZONES 19-21Z AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69 21-00Z. SLIGHT/CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS INTO MAINLY OUR INDIANA COUNTIES GIVEN STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND POTENTIAL (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) FOR UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IF MID-UPPER 60 SFC
TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED. SHEAR/BUOYANCY BALANCE OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT
GREAT GIVEN LIMITED SFC HEATING AND ALMOST TOO MUCH SHEAR/FLOW. AS
A RESULT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS (ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE) TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
COMPLICATED NR TERM OWING TO ARCH OF UPSTREAM CONVN DVLPG FM EC
MO THROUGH SW IL WITHIN LL THETA-E BULGE ALG NOSE OF INCREASING
LLJ. BULK OF NR TERM CAMS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH
SUNRISE PRIMARILY THROUGH NW HALF. MEANWHILE SHRA ASSOCD/W WKNG
MCV LIFTING THROUGH SW MI ATTM CONT TO WANE.
BULK OF MORNING ACTIVITY XPCD TO LIFT OUT ACRS WRN PORTIONS BY 14Z
AND DIMINISH THROUGH NW OH BFR NOON. ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO
INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
CROSSING NRN LWR MI. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WRT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR RECOVERY WITHIN CLD CONTAMINATED WARM
SECTOR. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML
STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER...STG 0-6KM SHEAR WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED CAPE WOULD SUGGEST CB GROWTH STRUGGLES.
HWVR ASSUMING RAP TRENDS CORRECT...LG HAIL/ISOLD WIND RISK CAN BE
XPCD OVR WRN INDIANA ZONES LT THIS AFTN IN PROXIMITY TO MODEL
DERIVED AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD THAT RUNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THIS VERY COLD AIR AFTER
PASSAGE CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON NIGHTS AFTER PASSAGE TO DROP WELL
DOWN INTO THE 20S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
ANY SNOW OR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. TWO MORE OF THESE CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY...AND THEN THE
NEXT ONE TWO DAYS LATER BY WEDNESDAY. THE TRACKS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITHIN BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID MORNING AS BNDRY LYR MIXING ENSUES/DEEPENS. WHILE
STILL CONDL...THREAT FOR STG PSBLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN LOOKING
MORE PLAUSIBLE BASED ON MEASURABLE UPSTREAM CLD EROSION. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30KTS WILL PEAK TWD ERLY TO MID AFTN BFR QUICKLY
DIMINSHING THROUGH EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1033 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS DIG TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS NW ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RADAR SHOWS A WAVE OF PRECIP
EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 50S.
AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...A
FEW DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR SUGGESTS
MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS HAVE REDUCED
POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASED POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL SATURDAY.
MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND BRING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THIS RUN HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOLER PATTERN AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S/30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATE TO KIND TAF/...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
RAIN HAS ENDED AT KIND AND IS QUICKLY DEPARTING VICINITY. MVFR
CLOUD DECK REMAINS SOLID BACK TO ILLINOIS STATE LINE BUT THAT EDGE
IS ADVANCING EAST AS WELL. CURRENT NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS
HOLDING WINDS DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT ONCE LOW CLOUD DECK SCATTERS AND
SUNS BREAK OUT...FULL STRENGTH AND GUSTINESS OF WIND WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL EXPECTING SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AND TO
REACH KIND 22Z- 23Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS DIG TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS NW ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RADAR SHOWS A WAVE OF PRECIP
EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 50S.
AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...A
FEW DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR SUGGESTS
MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS HAVE REDUCED
POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASED POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL SATURDAY.
MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND BRING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THIS RUN HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOLER PATTERN AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S/30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER KLAF AROUND THU 21Z...WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRI 01Z. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY BE AROUND MVFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF DETERIORIATION TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DURING STRONGEST CONVECTION.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY
FRI 01Z...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AT
THAT POINT THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WILL BE IN THE 14 TO 18 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
KTS. OF COURSE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
639 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
COMPLICATED NR TERM OWING TO ARCH OF UPSTREAM CONVN DVLPG FM EC
MO THROUGH SW IL WITHIN LL THETA-E BULGE ALG NOSE OF INCREASING
LLJ. BULK OF NR TERM CAMS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH
SUNRISE PRIMARILY THROUGH NW HALF. MEANWHILE SHRA ASSOCD/W WKNG
MCV LIFTING THROUGH SW MI ATTM CONT TO WANE.
BULK OF MORNING ACTIVITY XPCD TO LIFT OUT ACRS WRN PORTIONS BY 14Z
AND DIMINISH THROUGH NW OH BFR NOON. ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO
INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
CROSSING NRN LWR MI. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WRT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR RECOVERY WITHIN CLD CONTAMINATED WARM
SECTOR. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML
STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER...STG 0-6KM SHEAR WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED CAPE WOULD SUGGEST CB GROWTH STRUGGLES.
HWVR ASSUMING RAP TRENDS CORRECT...LG HAIL/ISOLD WIND RISK CAN BE
XPCD OVR WRN INDIANA ZONES LT THIS AFTN IN PROXIMITY TO MODEL
DERIVED AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD THAT RUNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THIS VERY COLD AIR AFTER
PASSAGE CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON NIGHTS AFTER PASSAGE TO DROP WELL
DOWN INTO THE 20S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
ANY SNOW OR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. TWO MORE OF THESE CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY...AND THEN THE
NEXT ONE TWO DAYS LATER BY WEDNESDAY. THE TRACKS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITHIN BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID MORNING AS BNDRY LYR MIXING ENSUES/DEEPENS. WHILE
STILL CONDL...THREAT FOR STG PSBLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN LOOKING
MORE PLAUSIBLE BASED ON MEASURABLE UPSTREAM CLD EROSION. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30KTS WILL PEAK TWD ERLY TO MID AFTN BFR QUICKLY
DIMINSHING THROUGH EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
421 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
COMPLICATED NR TERM OWING TO ARCH OF UPSTREAM CONVN DVLPG FM EC
MO THROUGH SW IL WITHIN LL THETA-E BULGE ALG NOSE OF INCREASING
LLJ. BULK OF NR TERM CAMS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH
SUNRISE PRIMARILY THROUGH NW HALF. MEANWHILE SHRA ASSOCD/W WKNG
MCV LIFTING THROUGH SW MI ATTM CONT TO WANE.
BULK OF MORNING ACTIVITY XPCD TO LIFT OUT ACRS WRN PORTIONS BY 14Z
AND DIMINISH THROUGH NW OH BFR NOON. ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO
INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
CROSSING NRN LWR MI. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WRT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR RECOVERY WITHIN CLD CONTAMINATED WARM
SECTOR. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML
STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER...STG 0-6KM SHEAR WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED CAPE WOULD SUGGEST CB GROWTH STRUGGLES.
HWVR ASSUMING RAP TRENDS CORRECT...LG HAIL/ISOLD WIND RISK CAN BE
XPCD OVR WRN INDIANA ZONES LT THIS AFTN IN PROXIMITY TO MODEL
DERIVED AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THIS PERIOD THAT RUNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THIS VERY COLD AIR AFTER
PASSAGE CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON NIGHTS AFTER PASSAGE TO DROP WELL
DOWN INTO THE 20S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
ANY SNOW OR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. TWO MORE OF THESE CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY...AND THEN THE
NEXT ONE TWO DAYS LATER BY WEDNESDAY. THE TRACKS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
VARIABLE FLT CONDS TO START AS DECAYING MCV OVR NW IN LIFTS NE INTO
MI AND SHRA ACRS THE TERMINALS DIMINISH. HWVR INCREASING LL MSTR
FLUX WITHIN STG LLJ WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS OVR SRN IL TO EXPAND NEWD
OVERLAPPING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER INCREASING
PREFNTL MIXING AHD OF SHARP CDFNT WILL SCOUR LWR CIGS OUT TO VFR
W/CONDL THREAT FOR STORMS LT THIS AFTN. LLWS WILL PEAK PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AS HEART OF LLJ TRANSLATES NE AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
THROUGH MID MORNING AS CORRESPONDING SFC GRADIENT PICKS UP W/SWRLY
SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS LIKELY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
Mean troughing was over the northern and Central Plains per water
vapor imagery. A few main waves were identified in this trough...one
moving northeast into the Great Lakes, another beginning to turn
southeast out of central South Dakota, and another surging south
out of Manitoba. Some low-mid level moisture was moving across
the area ahead of the second wave and bringing a few showers to
central and eastern Kansas this afternoon. This activity should
slowly dissipate in weaker forcing, lesser moisture, and weakening
diurnal instability. Cold air advection ramps up tonight as a
second cold front pushes in from the second wave. Moisture is
much more limited behind this front but decent mixing depths could
lead to a few sprinkles in eastern areas in the midday to
afternoon hours but doesn`t seem worthy of a mention at this
point. Clearing skies and a weakening gradient should bring decent
temp falls this evening, but may level off some overnight as
mixing increases. Weakening cold air advection and the mixing
brings highs a few to several degrees cooler than today.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
Secondary upper trough axis lifts over the central plains into the
Midwest regions by Friday evening. Operational guidance shows weak
lift behind the cold front during the early evening period with the
12Z ECMWF developing light qpf along the trough axis. Other models
however have consistently kept the better moisture further east.
With the winds weakening and backing to the west after midnight,
areas south of Interstate 70 may become calm as sfc ridge builds to
the southwest. These light winds coupled with clear skies may
develop frost and/or freeze conditions south of Interstate 70
especially with readings in the lower 30s Saturday morning.
The weekend is shaping up to be sunny and warmer as northwest winds
increase during the afternoon between 15 and 20 mph sustained. This
weak cool advection will offset the clear skies with temps holding
into the lower to middle 60s. By Sunday, winds shift back to the
southwest and pick up to near 20 mph sustained in the afternoon.
Drier air advecting into the CWA is expected to drop minimum RH
values down to the lower 20 percent range. Fire danger conditions
are elevated during the afternoon despite most fuels beginning to
green up.
Next cold front is progged to pass through the plains dry on Monday
with only an impact on temps with readings in the 60s for highs.
Upper ridging through mid week spells for warming temps in the 70s
while overnight lows remain above freezing in the upper 30s to lower
40s. Next shortwave trough is pretty well defined on both the GFS
and ECMWF 12Z runs. The positively tilted wave is a bit more
amplified with the ECMWF along the cold front, however still evident
on both models for scattered showers and storms Tuesday evening. Dry
northwest flow aloft prevails Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance
for elevated fire danger conditions on Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
Aside from lingering MVFR cigs at the Topeka terminals through
19Z, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A secondary
area of cloud cover associated with a trough axis is pushing
southeast out of Nebraska. Current trends show cigs continuing to
scatter out across SC Nebraska and NC Kansas, therefore expect
VFR, although a brief period of MVFR is not out of the question.
Winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon with sustained
WNW 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. Winds will once again
increase by 14Z Friday morning with similar speeds as today.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016
Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave
trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller
scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the
western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas
into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to
western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it
continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level
cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the
potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary
surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing
of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will
not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon.
Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the
afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga
showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to
around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no
indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that
anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating
precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of
an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we
will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers).
For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward,
however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep
winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest
wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the
Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into
Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF-
ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850-
700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope
from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016
Much of southwest Kansas is now in official drought conditions
(D1/Moderate Drought) per US Drought Monitor...primarily along and
south of the Arkansas River. The forecast period through mid next
week looks dry. The hemispheric jet stream pattern will be split
across North America through the period -- the main polar jet will
reside across southern Canada/northern CONUS as will the storm
track. The southern jet stream will be less active with a closed low
expected to form well off the southern California Coast. As long as
we continue to see a fairly fast, northern jet stream, we will not
see any precipitation (or at least meaningful precipitation) across
western Kansas. A trough will develop across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region early next week, and we should see a backdoor cold
front Monday. This would be a brief shot of cooler air which will
likely be followed be another lee trough Tuesday ahead of the next
synoptic storm system ripping across the Rockies (most likely over
us or to our north). The Tuesday system would be coming out into the
plains amidst a depleted moisture source to our south given such a
strong cold front penetration over the weekend. On the whole,
temperatures will continue to be above average with highs well into
the 70s and lower 80s ahead of fronts (Sunday and Tuesday) with
upper 60s to lower 70s behind fronts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016
There was a band of MVFR ceilings moving south toward GCK and HYS
late this morning, however with increasing insolation, the ceilings
are forecast to scatter out as they approach GCK, HYS, DDC.
Nevertheless, will probably need to include 2 or 3 hours of MVFR at
GCK, HYS and perhaps DDC given the visible satellite trends. Very
near term high resolution models are not showing this MVFR cloud
area very well, so confidence is not high in how far south the MVFR
conditions will reach early in the afternoon before dissolving.
Virga showers will develop later this afternoon along the 850-700mb
frontal zone. We will likely continue VCSH in the TAFs for GCK, DDC,
HYS, with a duration of no more than a couple hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 57 31 69 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 26 56 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 30 56 30 67 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 29 58 30 70 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 29 55 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
P28 33 59 33 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING. A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS/SCATTERED SPRINKLES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND MAINTAINED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE REMAINING SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL BRING
A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
CLOUD DECK OF BKN025 MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT 17Z IT
WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THIS WILL ADVANCE INTO KRSL/KGBD
BY 19Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE ON BUT PROBABLY NOT GET MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN KSLN/KHUT. BKN025 STILL PERSISTENT OVER KCNU FROM
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
BY 01Z SKIES AND VSBYS WILL ALL BE VFR WITH DECREASING WIND.
FRIDAY WILL HAVE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25KTS.
OTHERWISE VFR.
KRC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DRIVE THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
ON SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 66 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 64 33 57 31 / 10 10 0 0
NEWTON 64 35 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 65 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 60 31 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 62 32 56 31 / 10 10 0 0
SALINA 64 34 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 63 33 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 65 38 60 33 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 65 38 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 64 36 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 65 38 60 32 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KRC
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
...Updated short term and aviation sections...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016
Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave
trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller
scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the
western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas
into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to
western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it
continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level
cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the
potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary
surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing
of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will
not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon.
Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the
afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga
showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to
around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no
indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that
anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating
precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of
an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we
will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers).
For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward,
however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep
winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest
wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the
Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into
Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF-
ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850-
700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope
from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016
For the end of the business week and into the weekend, 500-hPa longwave
ridging is expected upstream. Cool low level air will slide off to the
east and downslope flow will gradually increase in strength/intensity.
In fact, by Sunday, 850-hPa temperatures in the mid teens are expected.
As a result, we should see an upswing in temperatures with 50s on Friday
to 70s on Sunday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will be possible on Sunday, however, the winds don`t look particularly
that strong. Something to watch. A backdoor cold front may work in from
the northeast on Monday and nudge temps down a bit. This will not last
long though, as westerly flow increases Tuesday with a resultant strengthening
warm air advection pattern/lowering lee sfc pressures. Will have to
watch Tuesday again for fire wx concerns. Beyond this, long range models
indicate a Rex block forming across the western United States. Downstream,
a dry NW/N flow pattern prevails across the Great Plains. The net result
is a dry forecast with pleasant temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016
There was a band of MVFR ceilings moving south toward GCK and HYS
late this morning, however with increasing insolation, the ceilings
are forecast to scatter out as they approach GCK, HYS, DDC.
Nevertheless, will probably need to include 2 or 3 hours of MVFR at
GCK, HYS and perhaps DDC given the visible satellite trends. Very
near term high resolution models are not showing this MVFR cloud
area very well, so confidence is not high in how far south the MVFR
conditions will reach early in the afternoon before dissolving.
Virga showers will develop later this afternoon along the 850-700mb
frontal zone. We will likely continue VCSH in the TAFs for GCK, DDC,
HYS, with a duration of no more than a couple hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 29 57 31 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 59 26 56 30 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 58 30 56 30 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 62 29 58 30 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 59 29 55 32 / 10 10 0 0
P28 65 33 59 33 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A
COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO.
CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH
A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR
FORCING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A
HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM
THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS
IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT
EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS
LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.
MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD...
DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.
OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME
FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS
WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT
THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS
PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...WITH LOW CLOUDS HOLDING IN UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A
COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO.
CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH
A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR
FORCING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...WITH LOW CLOUDS HOLDING IN UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY
DIMINISHED TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT THIS POINT. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO THE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA DOWN TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. AT ITS CURRENT
PACE...THESE STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO THE BLUEGRASS BETWEEN 6 AND
7 PM. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAKER LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD
OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED FORECAST
HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STAVING OFF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. SUBSEQUENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS WEAKENING TREND BETTER. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT WOULD IMAGINE SOME THINNING WOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK VERY
REASONABLE.
HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED THESE DWINDLING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE DAY...AS ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP OFF TO
OUR WEST AND MOVE IN.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED OUT IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WITH A STRONG 850 MB JET ALOFT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE
BLUEGRASS BORDER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF STATEMENT ADDRESSING THESE WINDS AS THEY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. UPDATES
WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR
31 2016
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN ABSENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FLEMINGSBURG
TO EAST OF MONTICELLO...SLOWLY MAKING HEADWAY EAST INTO A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WILL SEE
THESE RISE THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM READINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE SIT IN THE 40S. A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THIS MAIN
MOISTURE BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT WORKS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ACT TO INHIBIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER HINDERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE THE CORE OF THIS MORNING/S UPPER FORCING TRACKING WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN ADVECT IN BEFORE ALL UPPER SUPPORT IS LOST.
THAT BEING SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW HINTS OF A MINOR
PERTURBATION OR TWO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH MAY ACT TO
SUSTAIN MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FARTHER EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS.
LACK OF LIFT WILL LIKELY SPELL A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
70S...OWING TO AN APPROACHING H85 THERMAL RIDGE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME. GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...WILL BE IN
PLACE BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT...WITH H85
LEVEL WINDS OF NEAR OR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS.
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF NEAR 50
KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VECTOR
ORIENTATION WILL LIKELY BE NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS KEEPING CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE FORM OF
LINEAR SEGMENTS. INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN THAT
SUGGESTED BY NWP IF SUSTAINED LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY DOES
FULLY MATERIALIZE...BUT A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR SHOULD OVERWHELM BUOYANCY PROCESSES
AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE OF LARGE HAIL.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY DOES SUPPORT SOME POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL ROTATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CONVECTION
REMAINS ROOTED TO THE SURFACE.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING...SCOURING OUT THE GREATER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AIRMASS WILL NOT COOL CONSIDERABLY AS THE
PARENT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION TO LOW 70S SOUTH AND EAST NEARER THE VIRGINIA
STATE LINE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL. WILL SEE LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
STORMS DEPART BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
...HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WITH REPEATING ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP
SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIETLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH
THE COLD FRONT RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND LOW
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST/FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER IMPACT
FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. 850MB TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SITTING FROM -4C
(SOUTHWEST) TO -8C (NORTHEAST). WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SETTING UP A HARD FREEZE FOR
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE
LOW...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PLACES TO REACH THE
LOWER 20S IF THINGS CAN ALIGN RIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER
INTO THE 50S AFTER THE VERY COLD START. HOWEVER...VALLEYS SHOULD
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS AGAIN FALLING TO
AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL SET UP SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST AS SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY RIDGES MAY
STAY MIXED OVERNIGHT AND NOT DROP OFF AS EASILY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
ANOTHER DIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE SURGE
OF COLD AIR IS STRONGER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WE WOULD LIKELY
BE SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR THE AREA AS TEMPS
FALL WELL UNDER FREEZING AGAIN. GOOD NEWS IS WE MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER AROUND...KEEPING VALLEYS FROM DROPPING OFF AS LOW AND
LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.
RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AGAIN WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST TO DEAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT AS VALLEYS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE STRONGEST OF THE
OF THE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...WITH BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE CARVED OUT BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND POTENTIALLY THE
COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...WE MAY KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY EVEN MIXING IN AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. GIVEN THE SETUP...WENT WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...WITH LOW CLOUDS HOLDING IN UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STAVING OFF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. SUBSEQUENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS WEAKENING TREND BETTER. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT WOULD IMAGINE SOME THINNING WOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK VERY
REASONABLE.
HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED THESE DWINDLING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE DAY...AS ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP OFF TO
OUR WEST AND MOVE IN.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED OUT IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WITH A STRONG 850 MB JET ALOFT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE
BLUEGRASS BORDER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF STATEMENT ADDRESSING THESE WINDS AS THEY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. UPDATES
WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR
31 2016
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN ABSENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FLEMINGSBURG
TO EAST OF MONTICELLO...SLOWLY MAKING HEADWAY EAST INTO A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WILL SEE
THESE RISE THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM READINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE SIT IN THE 40S. A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THIS MAIN
MOISTURE BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT WORKS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ACT TO INHIBIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER HINDERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE THE CORE OF THIS MORNING/S UPPER FORCING TRACKING WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN ADVECT IN BEFORE ALL UPPER SUPPORT IS LOST.
THAT BEING SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW HINTS OF A MINOR
PERTURBATION OR TWO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH MAY ACT TO
SUSTAIN MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FARTHER EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS.
LACK OF LIFT WILL LIKELY SPELL A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
70S...OWING TO AN APPROACHING H85 THERMAL RIDGE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME. GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...WILL BE IN
PLACE BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT...WITH H85
LEVEL WINDS OF NEAR OR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS.
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF NEAR 50
KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VECTOR
ORIENTATION WILL LIKELY BE NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS KEEPING CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE FORM OF
LINEAR SEGMENTS. INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN THAT
SUGGESTED BY NWP IF SUSTAINED LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY DOES
FULLY MATERIALIZE...BUT A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR SHOULD OVERWHELM BUOYANCY PROCESSES
AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE OF LARGE HAIL.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY DOES SUPPORT SOME POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL ROTATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CONVECTION
REMAINS ROOTED TO THE SURFACE.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING...SCOURING OUT THE GREATER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AIRMASS WILL NOT COOL CONSIDERABLY AS THE
PARENT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION TO LOW 70S SOUTH AND EAST NEARER THE VIRGINIA
STATE LINE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL. WILL SEE LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
STORMS DEPART BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
...HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WITH REPEATING ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP
SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIETLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH
THE COLD FRONT RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND LOW
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST/FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER IMPACT
FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. 850MB TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SITTING FROM -4C
(SOUTHWEST) TO -8C (NORTHEAST). WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SETTING UP A HARD FREEZE FOR
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE
LOW...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PLACES TO REACH THE
LOWER 20S IF THINGS CAN ALIGN RIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER
INTO THE 50S AFTER THE VERY COLD START. HOWEVER...VALLEYS SHOULD
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS AGAIN FALLING TO
AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL SET UP SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST AS SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY RIDGES MAY
STAY MIXED OVERNIGHT AND NOT DROP OFF AS EASILY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
ANOTHER DIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE SURGE
OF COLD AIR IS STRONGER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WE WOULD LIKELY
BE SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR THE AREA AS TEMPS
FALL WELL UNDER FREEZING AGAIN. GOOD NEWS IS WE MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER AROUND...KEEPING VALLEYS FROM DROPPING OFF AS LOW AND
LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.
RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AGAIN WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST TO DEAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT AS VALLEYS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE STRONGEST OF THE
OF THE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...WITH BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE CARVED OUT BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND POTENTIALLY THE
COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...WE MAY KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY EVEN MIXING IN AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. GIVEN THE SETUP...WENT WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST IN PLAY FOR ALL SITES AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR LOZ/SME AROUND 1230-13Z AND
PUSH EAST TOWARD SJS BY ~14-15Z. A LULL IN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
PREVAIL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES THIS EVENING. MAY VERY WELL SEE
DEGRADATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF DRY AIR RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
LIKELY THIS MAY BE. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL COME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS A GOOD BET ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TOWARD MVFR BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY AS STRONGEST
OF THE STORMS PUSH EAST. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LLWS ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT PENDING TIMING OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
909 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.67 INCHES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB WHERE WINDS VEER
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THOSE LEVELS. A
NOTED CAP BETWEEN 925 AND 900 MB WHERE TEMPS WARM FROM 65 UP 68
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE FROM ZERO TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
925. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE
WINDS ARE AT AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 1000 ASL. WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING
LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE WITH WBZ BEING AT 11.62 KFT AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT 13.07 KFT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINING
HIGH AT 85 DEGREES.
GP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED AN EXITING 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A 995MB LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA. A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO TEXAS BIG BEND. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5MB
WAS PRESENT FROM BTR TO MOB. AS A RESULT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WERE
OCCURRING. ISOTACH ANALYSIS SHOWED THE NOSE OF 140 KNOT SUB-
TROPICAL JET FROM TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA...FORECAST AREA
IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR NOW. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 850MB SHOWED
A LLJ OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...40 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AT 00Z
SHOWED A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES FROM
NORTHWEST GULF TO WEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
FINALLY...THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM
IOWA TO ARIZONA WITH DISTURBANCES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
OVER ARIZONA. 18
SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE AXIS AND LLJ WILL MIGRATE EAST AND YIELDING 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES OVER 400 TO 500 M/S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
FLORIDA PARISHES OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL INCREASE TO 1800 J/KG BY SUNRISE WITH
A SLIGHT LAG BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME SPIN
UPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ERGO...AGREE WITH TOR WATCH THROUGH 9
AM FOR NORTH HALF ZONES EXCLUDING MS COAST. WORKED OVER ATM MAY
YIELD A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD SCATTERED
SOUTH TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FOR NORTH ZONES.
WIND PROFILE BECOMES SOUTHWEST FROM SURF TO 500MB AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING LL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE NORTH ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FOCUS OF THE FRONT
AND SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL YIELD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
POST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE VERY LITTLE PUSH TO THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE IN PLAY. WILL
GO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TOTAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 2 INCHES FALL IN AN HOUR OR SO
OR 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A COUPLE HOURS WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PONDING OF WATER OR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT. 18
LONG TERM...
WEEKEND THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND MOSTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 18
AVIATION...
PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 FEET WILL
BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT AVIATION WISE TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND KBTR...KHDC...AND KMCB THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE..INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND LESS OF THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER DOWN TO AROUND
300 TO 500 FEET BY 06Z...AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE ELEVATED INVERSION DIPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG THAT TRIES TO FORM AFTER 06Z AS WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ONE MILE. THE LOW LIFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TONIGHT. 32
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS DUE TO
CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF
UP TO 8 FEET. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS IS ANTICIPATED. THESE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD FALL FROM EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
RAPIDLY. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 32
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 62 74 50 / 90 50 70 50
BTR 82 64 74 52 / 50 60 80 40
ASD 80 68 75 56 / 40 70 90 60
MSY 82 68 75 58 / 40 70 100 50
GPT 78 68 76 56 / 50 70 100 70
PQL 80 68 74 56 / 50 70 100 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ056>070.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-071-072.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ080>082.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED AN EXITING 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A 995MB LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA. A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO TEXAS BIG BEND. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5MB
WAS PRESENT FROM BTR TO MOB. AS A RESULT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WERE
OCCURRING. ISOTACH ANALYSIS SHOWED THE NOSE OF 140 KNOT SUB-
TROPICAL JET FROM TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA...FORECAST AREA
IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR NOW. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 850MB SHOWED
A LLJ OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...40 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AT 00Z
SHOWED A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES FROM
NORTHWEST GULF TO WEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
FINALLY...THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM
IOWA TO ARIZONA WITH DISTURBANCES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
OVER ARIZONA. 18
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE AXIS AND LLJ WILL MIGRATE EAST AND YIELDING 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES OVER 400 TO 500 M/S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
FLORIDA PARISHES OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL INCREASE TO 1800 J/KG BY SUNRISE WITH
A SLIGHT LAG BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME SPIN
UPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ERGO...AGREE WITH TOR WATCH THROUGH 9
AM FOR NORTH HALF ZONES EXCLUDING MS COAST. WORKED OVER ATM MAY
YIELD A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD SCATTERED
SOUTH TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FOR NORTH ZONES.
WIND PROFILE BECOMES SOUTHWEST FROM SURF TO 500MB AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING LL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE NORTH ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FOCUS OF THE FRONT
AND SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL YIELD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
POST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE VERY LITTLE PUSH TO THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE IN PLAY. WILL
GO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TOTAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 2 INCHES FALL IN AN HOUR OR SO
OR 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A COUPLE HOURS WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PONDING OF WATER OR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT. 18
.LONG TERM...
WEEKEND THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND MOSTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 18
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 FEET WILL
BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT AVIATION WISE TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND KBTR...KHDC...AND KMCB THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE..INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND LESS OF THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER DOWN TO AROUND
300 TO 500 FEET BY 06Z...AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE ELEVATED INVERSION DIPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG THAT TRIES TO FORM AFTER 06Z AS WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ONE MILE. THE LOW LIFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TONIGHT. 32
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS DUE TO
CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF
UP TO 8 FEET. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS IS ANTICIPATED. THESE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD FALL FROM EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
RAPIDLY. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 32
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 62 74 50 / 70 70 70 50
BTR 82 64 74 52 / 60 70 80 40
ASD 80 68 75 56 / 60 70 90 60
MSY 82 68 75 58 / 60 80 100 50
GPT 78 68 76 56 / 70 80 100 70
PQL 80 68 74 56 / 70 80 100 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ056>070.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-071-072.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ080>082.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND
THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A
BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION
OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED
WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN
THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER,
GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL
TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY
IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES
OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE
DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S
THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO
AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS
IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR
SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING
OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE
DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS
SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST
LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL.
THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF
EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY
NEARS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END
OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE
TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING
HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 132 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICHIGAN ON GUSTY SSW WINDS.
ANY BREAKS WILL FILL BACK IN AS A SURFACE TROUGH WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA 21Z-24Z WITH SCT-BKN CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CIGS
WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURN AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CROSSES NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO LAKE HURON.
FOR DTW...PREVAILING S-SSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE 21Z TO
24Z TIME FRAME AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE AREA OF A POSSIBLE
INCLUSION AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE TODAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE 21Z-24Z.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC/RK
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....!--NOT SENT--!
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS. THEN
A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAW DOWN
COLDER AIR AND SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
I ADDED GREATER DETAIL THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER US NOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY NOON.
THEN AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM (WEST TO EAST). THESE STORMS
MAY WELL HAVE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING SO I
ADDED THAT TO OUR FORECAST GRIDS. THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO MUSKEGON THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SURGE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT (1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS) BETWEEN NOON AND
4 PM OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA (RAP MODEL). ALSO THE HRRR
AND SPC SREF ARE SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON... MOSTLY SUB SEVERE. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE AREA
OF CLEARING SOUTHWEST OF CHI TO SEE IF IT CAN GET INTO OUR CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF HAVING SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS POINT THOUGHIT
SEEMS TO ME THAT CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH SO I
THINK MOSTLY SUB - SEVERE STORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
BY 6 PM THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA SO THE
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
IS LIMITED SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AFTER THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND STRONG SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA BUT TSRA HAVE
BEEN LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK RIGHT NOW AND
THAT WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS PRETTY
HIGH AROUND 65 KNOTS AFTER NOON TODAY AND WHILE THERE IS SOME CAPE
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 500-800 J/KG...LI/S ONLY FALL TO
AROUND -2C THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL TRENDS POINT TOWARD A BIT
LOWER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. I STILL THINK WE/LL SEE STORMS
AFTER NOON TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
A BIT DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLDER AIR. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OVER THE NRN CWA AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SATURDAY SO RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS C. THE COLD AIR REMAINS INTO SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
AIR IS RATHER DRY.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW TRAVERSES SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL
BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW TO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRIPE OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI.
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FOR THE MOST PART I DID NOT CHANGE THE WINDS OR HEADLINES IN THE
NEAR SHORE FORECAST. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MKG AND HOLLAND WEB
CAMS... VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO SO I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST TILL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP MODEL FOG FORECAST TOOL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CREST AROUN 9.3 FEET ON SATURDAY.
THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 9.0 FEET... EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
COTTAGES AND HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF NEWAYGO ON RIVERVIEW DRIVE IN
BRIDGETON TOWNSHIP AND PEPPERIDGE IN ASHLAND TOWNSHIP.
OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
HAS RECEIVED 1.00-1.75 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR SINCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG STORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS. THEN
A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAW DOWN
COLDER AIR AND SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
I ADDED GREATER DETAIL THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER US NOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY NOON.
THEN AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM (WEST TO EAST). THESE STORMS
MAY WELL HAVE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING SO I
ADDED THAT TO OUR FORECAST GRIDS. THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO MUSKEGON THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SURGE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT (1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS) BETWEEN NOON AND
4 PM OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA (RAP MODEL). ALSO THE HRRR
AND SPC SREF ARE SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON... MOSTLY SUB SEVERE. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE AREA
OF CLEARING SOUTHWEST OF CHI TO SEE IF IT CAN GET INTO OUR CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF HAVING SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS POINT THOUGHIT
SEEMS TO ME THAT CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH SO I
THINK MOSTLY SUB - SEVERE STORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
BY 6 PM THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA SO THE
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
IS LIMITED SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AFTER THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND STRONG SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA BUT TSRA HAVE
BEEN LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK RIGHT NOW AND
THAT WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS PRETTY
HIGH AROUND 65 KNOTS AFTER NOON TODAY AND WHILE THERE IS SOME CAPE
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 500-800 J/KG...LI/S ONLY FALL TO
AROUND -2C THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL TRENDS POINT TOWARD A BIT
LOWER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. I STILL THINK WE/LL SEE STORMS
AFTER NOON TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
A BIT DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLDER AIR. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OVER THE NRN CWA AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SATURDAY SO RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS C. THE COLD AIR REMAINS INTO SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
AIR IS RATHER DRY.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW TRAVERSES SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL
BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW TO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRIPE OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI.
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FOR THE MOST PART I DID NOT CHANGE THE WINDS OR HEADLINES IN THE
NEAR SHORE FORECAST. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MKG AND HOLLAND WEB
CAMS... VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO SO I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST TILL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP MODEL FOG FORECAST TOOL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016
EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT BOTH EVART AND CROTON. CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ARE
BASED ON 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY. THOUGHT THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS... BUT THESE AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE WITH THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE
CROTON TO A FLOOD WARNING... AND EVART MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING THURSDAY MORNING IF FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS VERIFY. IMPACTS
TO HOMES AND ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
ELSEWHERE... NEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND SOME
EXISTING ADVISORIES EXTENDED DUE TO 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE RESTRICTED TO LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR RIVER BANKS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS. THEN
A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAW DOWN
COLDER AIR AND SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
I ADDED GREATER DETAIL THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER US NOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY NOON.
THEN AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM (WEST TO EAST). THESE STORMS
MAY WELL HAVE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING SO I
ADDED THAT TO OUR FORECAST GRIDS. THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO MUSKEGON THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SURGE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT (1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS) BETWEEN NOON AND
4 PM OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA (RAP MODEL). ALSO THE HRRR
AND SPC SREF ARE SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON... MOSTLY SUB SEVERE. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE AREA
OF CLEARING SOUTHWEST OF CHI TO SEE IF IT CAN GET INTO OUR CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF HAVING SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS POINT THOUGHIT
SEEMS TO ME THAT CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH SO I
THINK MOSTLY SUB - SEVERE STORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
BY 6 PM THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA SO THE
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
IS LIMITED SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AFTER THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND STRONG SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA BUT TSRA HAVE
BEEN LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK RIGHT NOW AND
THAT WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS PRETTY
HIGH AROUND 65 KNOTS AFTER NOON TODAY AND WHILE THERE IS SOME CAPE
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 500-800 J/KG...LI/S ONLY FALL TO
AROUND -2C THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL TRENDS POINT TOWARD A BIT
LOWER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. I STILL THINK WE/LL SEE STORMS
AFTER NOON TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
A BIT DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLDER AIR. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OVER THE NRN CWA AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SATURDAY SO RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS C. THE COLD AIR REMAINS INTO SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
AIR IS RATHER DRY.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW TRAVERSES SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL
BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW TO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRIPE OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI.
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT AS
WELL...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING TO MVFR IF NOT IFR AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 16Z TO 00Z TIME
FRAME...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED. HAVE VCTS WORDING IN THE
TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 15 TO
25 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
FOR THE MOST PART I DID NOT CHANGE THE WINDS OR HEADLINES IN THE
NEAR SHORE FORECAST. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MKG AND HOLLAND WEB
CAMS... VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO SO I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST TILL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP MODEL FOG FORECAST TOOL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016
EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT BOTH EVART AND CROTON. CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ARE
BASED ON 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY. THOUGHT THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS... BUT THESE AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE WITH THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE
CROTON TO A FLOOD WARNING... AND EVART MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING THURSDAY MORNING IF FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS VERIFY. IMPACTS
TO HOMES AND ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
ELSEWHERE... NEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND SOME
EXISTING ADVISORIES EXTENDED DUE TO 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE RESTRICTED TO LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR RIVER BANKS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR AS
THE DRY LINE OVER SW AR/NW LA HAS BEGUN PLOWING INTO THE THE
WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NE LA/SE AR. THE HRRR HAS HAD THIS
SCENARIO PEGGED WELL TODAY AND SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE
ALONG THE DRY LINE AS WELL AS DISCRETE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD. VERTICAL
TOTALS AROUND 30 ARE SUPPORTING LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND CAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS THERMO ENVIRONMENT IS OCCCURING IN AN
IMPRESSIVELY SHEARED WIND FIELD WITH 0-1KM SHEAR FROM 25-30 KNOTS AND
200-300 SRH. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING INTO AL AND DECREASING IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE INHERITED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIMARILY LEFTOVER FROM LAST
NIGHTS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING
TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH PRECIP SCENARIO TONIGHT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. MAY
STILL HAVE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE
TRAINING CELLS CAN SET UP.
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
MEAN A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION FRIDAY. BOUNDARY DOES NOT LOOK AS
THOUGH IT WILL CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE DEPTH OF DRY
AIR CAN INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
GOING FORWARD INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
TX RESULTING IN CONVERGING FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOOKS TO SET UP NICE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME REINFORCEMENT OF THE DRY/COOL AIR
OVER THE NE BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING./26/
&&
.AVIATION...SEVERAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK, WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THROUGH THE EVENING, SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
50 KT WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. SOME VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE DELTA TO OVERNIGHT IN SE MS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG MAY LINGER AT PIB/HBG WELL INTO THE MORNING
FRIDAY. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 59 72 48 65 / 77 48 35 8
MERIDIAN 62 72 49 66 / 80 66 32 12
VICKSBURG 58 70 48 66 / 63 38 29 8
HATTIESBURG 67 72 52 69 / 86 87 51 10
NATCHEZ 61 72 49 65 / 66 66 33 8
GREENVILLE 54 70 46 65 / 50 17 17 6
GREENWOOD 54 71 45 64 / 74 19 19 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1017 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...KJAN MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A MAUL AROUND 750 MB WHICH
HAS LED TO ABOUT 730 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA MOVING OUT AT PRESENT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
SHOWING THE REALIZATION OF THIS CAPE IN THE BUBBLY APPEARANCE OF
ENHANCED CU AND TCU OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AREA RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EAST AND NORTH...BUT QUICKLY MOVING EAST
AS WELL.
VIS IMAGERY INDICATING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A RECHARGING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
IS INDICATING MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 20Z OVER NE LA WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS 0-1KM SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND
OVER 500 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.5-8 C/KM (VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30) WILL ALSO EXIST OVERTOP OF SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70./26/
&&
.AVIATION...MIXED MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL
WITH AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AFTER 31/18Z. WHERE TSRA OCCURS...IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SEEN...BUT ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME./26
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
UPDATE...TO INCLUDE AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
AS SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 14Z A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TSRA/SHRA OCCUR FROM AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH 50 KT WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH THE
CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER
AROUND 21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER ROBUST AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50KTS. VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 27-31C AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PUSHING 8C/KM. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ALSO SHOW SOME POCKETS OF 50KTS 80M WINDS...WHICH
SUGGEST SOLID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20. LARGE HAIL
PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SIZES UP TO 2 INCHES OR LARGER POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL...THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO DOES
HELICITY WITH VALUES AROUND 200-300M2/S2 0-1KM AND 200-500M2/S2
0-3KM. IN ADDITION...THE SIG TOR PARAMETER DEPICTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 4...WHICH WHEN LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN
GRADIENT THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTUAL OCCURRENCE...THIS WOULD
PLACE IT ACROSS AGAIN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK.
IN TERMS OF THE FLOODING RISK...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER OUR REGION AND IS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE
99TH TO MAX PERCENTILES PER THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PW VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AGAIN THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS COUNTIES
NORTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN TACT BUT FEEL THE BEST
AREA FOR FLOODING AT LEAST FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND MAY
ADJUST HAZARDS AND GRAPHICS TO REFLECT THIS CONFIDENCE. THROUGH
TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING/OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH LOOKS FEASIBLE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE MOST ROBUST STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND 9-10PM
OR SO BUT THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
LINGERING/STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BELT. GIVEN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE AS DEPICTED BY
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG...VERTICAL TOTALS STILL AROUND 28-30C
AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE IT COMPLETELY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT IT
IS UNCERTAIN JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OR HOW FAST OR SLOW
IT MAY GET THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN TO LINGER
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER BY
THAT POINT WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DRYING BY EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. /28/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 59 73 49 / 71 70 42 32
MERIDIAN 77 61 74 49 / 88 73 56 42
VICKSBURG 79 58 71 49 / 74 63 28 23
HATTIESBURG 78 66 72 52 / 86 63 79 60
NATCHEZ 79 61 71 49 / 75 58 51 40
GREENVILLE 77 54 68 46 / 74 53 20 21
GREENWOOD 78 54 71 45 / 80 80 21 20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>029-034>036-040>042-047.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
543 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...TO INCLUDE AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
AS SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 14Z A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TSRA/SHRA OCCUR FROM AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH 50 KT WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH THE
CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
..ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER
AROUND 21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER ROBUST AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50KTS. VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 27-31C AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PUSHING 8C/KM. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ALSO SHOW SOME POCKETS OF 50KTS 80M WINDS...WHICH
SUGGEST SOLID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20. LARGE HAIL
PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SIZES UP TO 2 INCHES OR LARGER POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL...THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO DOES
HELICITY WITH VALUES AROUND 200-300M2/S2 0-1KM AND 200-500M2/S2
0-3KM. IN ADDITION...THE SIG TOR PARAMETER DEPICTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 4...WHICH WHEN LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN
GRADIENT THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTUAL OCCURRENCE...THIS WOULD
PLACE IT ACROSS AGAIN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK.
IN TERMS OF THE FLOODING RISK...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER OUR REGION AND IS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE
99TH TO MAX PERCENTILES PER THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PW VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AGAIN THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS COUNTIES
NORTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN TACT BUT FEEL THE BEST
AREA FOR FLOODING AT LEAST FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND MAY
ADJUST HAZARDS AND GRAPHICS TO REFLECT THIS CONFIDENCE. THROUGH
TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING/OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH LOOKS FEASIBLE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE MOST ROBUST STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND 9-10PM
OR SO BUT THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
LINGERING/STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BELT. GIVEN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE AS DEPICTED BY
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG...VERTICAL TOTALS STILL AROUND 28-30C
AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE IT COMPLETELY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT IT
IS UNCERTAIN JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OR HOW FAST OR SLOW
IT MAY GET THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN TO LINGER
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER BY
THAT POINT WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DRYING BY EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. /28/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 80 59 73 49 / 73 70 42 32
MERIDIAN 78 61 74 49 / 88 73 56 42
VICKSBURG 80 58 71 49 / 84 63 28 23
HATTIESBURG 79 66 72 52 / 86 63 79 60
NATCHEZ 80 61 71 49 / 79 58 51 40
GREENVILLE 78 54 68 46 / 85 53 20 21
GREENWOOD 79 54 71 45 / 86 80 21 20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
22/28/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER AROUND
21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER ROBUST AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50KTS. VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 27-31C AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PUSHING 8C/KM. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ALSO SHOW SOME POCKETS OF 50KTS 80M WINDS...WHICH
SUGGEST SOLID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20. LARGE HAIL
PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SIZES UP TO 2 INCHES OR LARGER POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL...THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO DOES
HELICITY WITH VALUES AROUND 200-300M2/S2 0-1KM AND 200-500M2/S2
0-3KM. IN ADDITION...THE SIG TOR PARAMETER DEPICTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 4...WHICH WHEN LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN
GRADIENT THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTUAL OCCURRENCE...THIS WOULD
PLACE IT ACROSS AGAIN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK.
IN TERMS OF THE FLOODING RISK...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER OUR REGION AND IS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE
99TH TO MAX PERCENTILES PER THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PW VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AGAIN THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS COUNTIES
NORTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN TACT BUT FEEL THE BEST
AREA FOR FLOODING AT LEAST FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND MAY
ADJUST HAZARDS AND GRAPHICS TO REFLECT THIS CONFIDENCE. THROUGH
TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING/OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH LOOKS FEASIBLE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE MOST ROBUST STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND 9-10PM
OR SO BUT THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
LINGERING/STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BELT. GIVEN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE AS DEPICTED BY
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG...VERTICAL TOTALS STILL AROUND 28-30C
AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE IT COMPLETELY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT IT
IS UNCERTAIN JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OR HOW FAST OR SLOW
IT MAY GET THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN TO LINGER
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER BY
THAT POINT WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DRYING BY EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. /28/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 80 59 73 49 / 73 70 42 32
MERIDIAN 78 61 74 49 / 88 73 56 42
VICKSBURG 80 58 71 49 / 84 63 28 23
HATTIESBURG 79 66 72 52 / 86 63 79 60
NATCHEZ 80 61 71 49 / 79 58 51 40
GREENVILLE 78 54 68 46 / 85 53 20 21
GREENWOOD 79 54 71 45 / 86 80 21 20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
28/22
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
928 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016
Scattered showers develop today in response to both daytime
heating and ascent associated with a short wave trof currently
extending through west central MO. The heating along with CAA
aloft produced enough instability to produce shallow convection
(i.e. no thunder), and with the low freezing levels, some reports
of small hail. Coverage of precipitation has waned since sunset,
although some residual showers persist in association with the
lift via the short wave. This activity, centered through east
central MO, will continue moving southeast through the remainder
of the evening and diminish in coverage.
The second item revolves around the forecast for Saturday. I have
issued a wind advisory for portions of west central and south
central IL. A secondary cold front will drive across the region
from mid morning into the afternoon accompanied by a tightening
pressure gradient, strong wind fields aloft, and impressive low
level CAA. Mixing will be rather deep and all of the above point
to the development of strong and gusty west-northwest winds
starting near mid morning in northeast MO/west central IL, and
spreading southeast with time, peaking early-mid afternoon. GFS
MOS, RAP winds, SREF probabilities and momentum transfer techniques
from soundings all support sustained winds up to 30 mph with gusts
of 45+ mph.
Depending on fuel moisture, an upgrade from heightened fire danger
to red flag conditions may be warranted for parts of central and
northeast MO into west central IL.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016
Another shortwave is moving through the Midwest and producing
scattered showers across much of northern down across parts of
central Missouri and west central Illinois. Expect this shower
activity to continue for the next several hours and weaken after 01-
02Z. The character of the clouds over the area and upstream across
Iowa and Nebraska looks very diurnal, so I expect we`ll see some
good clearing tonight. Temperatures should fall into the low and
mid 30s so frost will be a concern...but primarily over central and
southeast Missouri in more sheltered spots where it will be less
windy. Have added in patchy frost in these areas.
Think Saturday will be slightly warmer than today...particularly in
central Missouri where wind will start out from the west southwest
for the first 1/2 of the day ahead of another reinforcing cold
front. Wind will be a potential issue as the pressure gradient
tightens between the associated low over the Great Lakes and high
pressure over the eastern Plains. Current thinking is that we may
get close to wind advisory criteria across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois. Additionally, we should easily
have low enough relative humidity and fuel moisture, as well as high
enough wind for elevated fire danger across most of the northern
portion of the CWFA. RH values are marginal for Red Flag
criteria...so have held off issuing any special fire weather
products for now.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016
Focus thru the weekend will be temps with no precip expected until
Tues night.
Not much change from the prev forecast with mdls still suggesting
the sfc ridge building into the area Sat night. The ridge axis will
quickly push thru the CWA, with winds turning sly by sunrise. This
poses a bit of a forecast problem as these sly winds will help temps
rise. Main question attm is if temps across ern portions of the CWA
will drop enuf for a freeze headline. With a few uncertainties, will
hold off on any headlines for now.
Roller coaster temps continue thru the remainder of the forecast
period. System on Tues night into Thurs still appears to be on track
with the prev forecast and only minor changes were made.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Moderate strength NW surface winds will diminish this
evening along with the isolated to scattered showers moving thru
and have kept VCSH mention at all sites as well, including adding
this mention to STL metro sites where they continue to make
progress. Another cold front will move thru Saturday morning, and
will veer winds from the NW, after a brief period of backing from
W-SW during late tonight, and strengthen them as well, with gusts
to 30-35kts expected for much of the day.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND
ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM TO MORE IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS FROM THE WIND GUST
ALGORITHM TO FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH CONSRAW. INCREASED SKY COVER
FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO WHERE THE AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL MORE LIKELY BE AS THE QUICK-HITTING WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR EXAMPLE...IN THE
HASTINGS AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM.
LOOK FOR A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW AS THIS QUICK HITTER MOVES
THROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS FAR AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE RAP DOES NOT GIVE US ANYTHING. A CLOSED
MID- LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...WHICH MIGHT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR FAR NORTHEAST A
SHOT AT SOME QUICK RAIN/SNOW...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE
ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARILY NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
THE REMNANTS OF ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PUSHING E-NE OUT OF THE AREA. QUICK ON ITS HEELS...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN PUSHING S-SE OUT CENTRAL CANADA...AND WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY AT THE SFC...NWRLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE CWA-
WIDE...SITTING BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER IA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS IN
PLACE...AND WHAT PRECIP IS FALLING IS A COLD RAIN...WITH 3 AM
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THE ONGOING AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF A
LXN/BELOIT LINE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ONCE IT
DOES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA...BUT ITS LOOKING TO BE A BRIEF ONE.
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED NEXT IN LINE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY...AND INTO FAR NERN
PORTIONS OF NEB BY EVENING. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...THOUGH MODELS ARENT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THOSE CHANCES...WITH SOME REALLY DROPPING OFF
BASICALLY SOUTH OF I80. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
ANY PARTICULAR AREA...SO HAVE THE CWA-WIDE POPS STILL IN
PLACE...WITH 30- 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE THE
SHOWER ONLY MENTION...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY /THOUGH THE NAM STILL SHOWS PERHAPS 1-200 J/KG/. CANT
EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NERN
QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES INTO IA TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...SO LOOKING AT A
BREEZY/WINDY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
NWRLY...SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. FAR S/SERN AREAS MAKE
CREEP UP NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS MIXED IN.
EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...WITH A RELATIVELY COOL SPRING AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW
DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN
TRANSITIONS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL TRACK WITH A
LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND 70S ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A MODEST BUMP IN DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THESE
WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES TO COMBINE WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER. DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS...DECIDED TO BROAD BRUSH
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6...WITH
PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE EXACT DETAILS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
OTHERWISE...A QUICK PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUNDAY EVENING
TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY...WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THIS MODEST TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY. THIS WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS A
BIT STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...ENSEMBLE OUTLIERS ARE ONLY
BRINGING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF A PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS ONLY BRINGING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
SO OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SEESAWING TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KGRI OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...BUT SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE DAY...BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SHOWERS...MAINLY MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS POINT AM GOING WITH VCSH MENTION...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NWRLY WINDS BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE DAY OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH...DECIDED TO BE
PESSIMISTIC AND GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
953 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR EXAMPLE...IN THE
HASTINGS AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM.
LOOK FOR A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW AS THIS QUICK HITTER MOVES
THROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS FAR AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE RAP DOES NOT GIVE US ANYTHING. A CLOSED
MID- LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...WHICH MIGHT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR FAR NORTHEAST A
SHOT AT SOME QUICK RAIN/SNOW...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE
ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARILY NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
THE REMNANTS OF ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PUSHING E-NE OUT OF THE AREA. QUICK ON ITS HEELS...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN PUSHING S-SE OUT CENTRAL CANADA...AND WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY AT THE SFC...NWRLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE CWA-
WIDE...SITTING BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER IA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS IN
PLACE...AND WHAT PRECIP IS FALLING IS A COLD RAIN...WITH 3 AM
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THE ONGOING AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF A
LXN/BELOIT LINE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ONCE IT
DOES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA...BUT ITS LOOKING TO BE A BRIEF ONE.
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED NEXT IN LINE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY...AND INTO FAR NERN
PORTIONS OF NEB BY EVENING. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...THOUGH MODELS ARENT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THOSE CHANCES...WITH SOME REALLY DROPPING OFF
BASICALLY SOUTH OF I80. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
ANY PARTICULAR AREA...SO HAVE THE CWA-WIDE POPS STILL IN
PLACE...WITH 30- 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE THE
SHOWER ONLY MENTION...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY /THOUGH THE NAM STILL SHOWS PERHAPS 1-200 J/KG/. CANT
EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NERN
QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES INTO IA TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...SO LOOKING AT A
BREEZY/WINDY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
NWRLY...SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. FAR S/SERN AREAS MAKE
CREEP UP NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS MIXED IN.
EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...WITH A RELATIVELY COOL SPRING AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW
DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN
TRANSITIONS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL TRACK WITH A
LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND 70S ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A MODEST BUMP IN DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THESE
WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES TO COMBINE WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER. DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS...DECIDED TO BROAD BRUSH
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6...WITH
PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE EXACT DETAILS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
OTHERWISE...A QUICK PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUNDAY EVENING
TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY...WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THIS MODEST TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY. THIS WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS A
BIT STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...ENSEMBLE OUTLIERS ARE ONLY
BRINGING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF A PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS ONLY BRINGING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
SO OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SEESAWING TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KGRI OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...BUT SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE DAY...BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SHOWERS...MAINLY MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS POINT AM GOING WITH VCSH MENTION...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NWRLY WINDS BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE DAY OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH...DECIDED TO BE
PESSIMISTIC AND GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRI...LIGHT RA FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SW
ZONES AND FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING
POPS FROM HERE ON OUT. HAVE AN INC POP TREND THROUGH THE EVENING
BECOMING CATEGORICAL ALL OF E NC AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
AT PRESENT THOUGH WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND HT FALLS ALOFT
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY INCREASES A BIT SO RETAINED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. APPEARS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE SCENARIO WITH JUST A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE. HIGH RES MODEL
SUITE INDICATE A BACKING OF SFC WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
SAT SO AN ISO TORNADO THREAT STILL LOOMS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY
SHOWS THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 1.60 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN NC, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SPC MESOANALYSES
PWATS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
YESTERDAYS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUITE AND SOME GLOBAL MODELS
PERFORMED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC COINCIDENT WITH SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSION ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER BATCH OVER GA/SC ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO MATCH TRENDS WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING WHICH
YIELDED LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MAY STILL BE A
BIT OVERDONE THIS EVENING PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, BUT EXPECT
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NC FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z AND HAVE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE.
BETTER FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG
VORTMAX OVER EASTERN NC AND MODEST DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JETSTREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN ZONES LATE. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR OVERNIGHT, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 40 KT AT
06Z TO AROUND 70 KT BY 12Z WHILE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
DIMINISH TO AROUND 100-200 M2/S2 LATE. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BIGGEST
THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WITH PWATS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT, LOWS IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
OFF THE OBX COAST BY 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH EASTERN NC BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MIDDAY AS
PRECIP AND BEST FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. MODEL BLEND
SUGGEST AN END TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 21-00Z. COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING 1355-1370 METERS, YIELDING MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS COOLER WEATHER
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PRODUCING RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 70S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING USHERING IN
SOME RATHER COLD AIR FOR EARLY APRIL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH LOWS MID 30S INLAND TO MID 40S OUTER
BANKS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE
SPEED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AND
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS
WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND
THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV. LATER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND WITH IT A DROP
INTO THE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR RANGE ESP TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT
WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
VFR ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION.
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...HAVE EXPIRED SCA FROM ALBEMARLE SOUND AS
WINDS ONLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE HERE...AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CONT
TO DIMINISH FOR PAMLICO SO WILL END AT 05Z. LATEST SURFACE AND
BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KT,
MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE 5-8 FT
NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. ADJUSTED THE ENDING TIMES OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER TO BETTER CORRESPOND WITH WINDS FALLING
BELOW 25 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND ALSO BECAUSE
DURATION BETWEEN CURRENT GUSTY SW WIND EVENT AND POST-FRONTAL NW
SURGE IS GREATER THAN 12 HOURS. SCAS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY (SEE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST).
NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LIGHT NW WINDS BACKS TO
SW AND INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON TUESDAY. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL/SGK
MARINE...CTC/DAG/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
835 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER ON
THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST TO SOME AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED THIS EVENING LIKELY
RESULTING FROM THE EARLIER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WHICH
MUTED SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
FOUND OFF THE SOUTHERN SC COAST AND HEADING AWAY FROM SHORE.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AS WELL DUE TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN PLACE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE PROSPECTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE DIMINISHED IN OUR PART OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...LASTLY ALONG THE COAST.
THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND IS OFFSHORE. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA ON INCREASING WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVE...SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR WITH CLEARING LIKELY HOLDING OFF
LONGEST AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING SUN AND CLEAR SKIES
SUN NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
DROPPING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SAT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ON SUN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHICH
WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO 10+
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA...AS WILL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR
MIDWEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HIT THE FREEZING MARK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PLAN TO ADD PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUE NIGHT-
WED MORNING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARDS 70 ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THAN THE ONE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO A BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE. ANOTHER
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING
INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING FIREWORKS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SPORADIC STRIKES. PRECIPITATION INDUCED
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS WELL MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE CONVECTION TO THE COAST
BY 04-05Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. SATURDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM FRIDAY....LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT INSHORE UP TO 5 TO 6 FT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SURFACE PRESSURE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS WHICH IS HOLDING
SPEEDS BACK SOME. ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL FURTHER
SKEW THE LOCAL WIND FIELD TEMPORARILY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
OTHER THAN INITIAL WIND SPEED CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS IS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE W...VEERING TO NW. THE
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO N DURING SUN AND NE SUN EVE BEFORE BECOMING
ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SUN...TRENDING TOWARD SE AND
S. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER INTO
SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER IN OFFSHORE FLOW SUN...2 FT OR
LESS SUN NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH 4-5
FOOT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM SHORE AS A RESULT OF
15-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
WE REDUCED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE /ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND/ IN RESPECT TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT MOS
AND RAW 2-METER MODEL GUIDANCE...DESPITE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS. OUR WIND ADVISORY
IS ON TRACK AS GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45 MPH IN PLACES LIKE ROLLA AS
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTHWARD...AND IT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY ABOUT 04 UTC PER RECENT RAP TRENDS. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WINDS EASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THEIR INITIAL PRESSURE-
RISE-DRIVEN RESPONSE PER UPSTREAM TRENDS...SO THE GOING 06 UTC END
TIME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WIND AVISORY APPEARS ON TARGET
TOO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR PLACE-
MENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. AS OF 2325 UTC...MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EVOLVING CLIPPER WHICH
HAS ITS SURFACE LOW WEST OF WINNIPEG AT THIS HOUR. THE 20-22 UTC
RUNS OF THE RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH 35
KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ND
HAVE APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THERE. THUS...WE WILL NOT EXPAND THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CHANGED THE
WIND ADVISORY START TIME IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 7 PM CDT (ENDING
AROUND 1 AM CDT) TONIGHT...AND BEGINNING AROUND 10 PM CDT FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA (ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE - AROUND 4 AM
CDT). THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS - ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MONTANA (TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S) AND INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S). MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HUDSON BAY
LOW WITH A WEST COAST RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WAS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE - ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW FEATURE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA
AND REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS - AROUND 40-55 KNOTS AT H850 AND 65-
75 KNOTS AT H700 DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT (6-7PM) AND THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY AROUND 03Z (9-
10PM). LOOKING AT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST.
THE FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER REACHES WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY LASTING ONLY AROUND 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS WILL JUST MAKE
CRITERIA OF AROUND 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW) MOVES EAST...IT ALLOWS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUS A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ONLY AROUND
40 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. STILL ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL (HIGHS IN THE 60S)...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS (HIGHS IN THE 40S). A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSHOWERS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COLD ADVECTION IS BRIEF...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AGAIN PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TO BRING A WARM DAY MONDAY.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE BREAKS INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/WYOMING AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS MANITOBA
AND THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY. COULD BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S
WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEM IS LOW WITH
LITTLE SUGGESTION OF LOW STRATUS UPSTREAM. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS BETWEEN
03 AND 09 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ023-025-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR PLACE-
MENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. AS OF 2325 UTC...MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EVOLVING CLIPPER WHICH
HAS ITS SURFACE LOW WEST OF WINNIPEG AT THIS HOUR. THE 20-22 UTC
RUNS OF THE RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH 35
KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ND
HAVE APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THERE. THUS...WE WILL NOT EXPAND THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CHANGED THE
WIND ADVISORY START TIME IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 7 PM CDT (ENDING
AROUND 1 AM CDT) TONIGHT...AND BEGINNING AROUND 10 PM CDT FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA (ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE - AROUND 4 AM
CDT). THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS - ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MONTANA (TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S) AND INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S). MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HUDSON BAY
LOW WITH A WEST COAST RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WAS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE - ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW FEATURE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA
AND REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS - AROUND 40-55 KNOTS AT H850 AND 65-
75 KNOTS AT H700 DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT (6-7PM) AND THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY AROUND 03Z (9-
10PM). LOOKING AT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST.
THE FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER REACHES WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY LASTING ONLY AROUND 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS WILL JUST MAKE
CRITERIA OF AROUND 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW) MOVES EAST...IT ALLOWS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUS A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ONLY AROUND
40 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. STILL ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL (HIGHS IN THE 60S)...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS (HIGHS IN THE 40S). A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSHOWERS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COLD ADVECTION IS BRIEF...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AGAIN PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TO BRING A WARM DAY MONDAY.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE BREAKS INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/WYOMING AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS MANITOBA
AND THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY. COULD BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S
WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEM IS LOW GIVEN A
LACK OF SOLID UPSTREAM STRATUS ON LATE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMOT TO KJMS BETWEEN 03 AND 09 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ023-025-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR PLACE-
MENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. AS OF 2325 UTC...MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EVOLVING CLIPPER WHICH
HAS ITS SURFACE LOW WEST OF WINNIPEG AT THIS HOUR. THE 20-22 UTC
RUNS OF THE RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH 35
KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ND
HAVE APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THEREL. THUS...WE WILL NOT EXPAND THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CHANGED THE
WIND ADVISORY START TIME IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 7 PM CDT (ENDING
AROUND 1 AM CDT) TONIGHT...AND BEGINNING AROUND 10 PM CDT FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA (ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE - AROUND 4 AM
CDT). THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS - ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MONTANA (TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S) AND INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S). MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HUDSON BAY
LOW WITH A WEST COAST RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WAS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE - ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW FEATURE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA
AND REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS - AROUND 40-55 KNOTS AT H850 AND 65-
75 KNOTS AT H700 DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT (6-7PM) AND THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY AROUND 03Z (9-
10PM). LOOKING AT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST.
THE FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER REACHES WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY LASTING ONLY AROUND 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS WILL JUST MAKE
CRITERIA OF AROUND 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW) MOVES EAST...IT ALLOWS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUS A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ONLY AROUND
40 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. STILL ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL (HIGHS IN THE 60S)...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS (HIGHS IN THE 40S). A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSHOWERS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COLD ADVECTION IS BRIEF...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AGAIN PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TO BRING A WARM DAY MONDAY.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE BREAKS INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/WYOMING AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS MANITOBA
AND THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY. COULD BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S
WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEM IS LOW GIVEN A
LACK OF SOLID UPSTREAM STRATUS ON LATE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMOT TO KJMS BETWEEN 03 AND 09 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ023-025-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
FOLLOWING TWO FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TRACKING RATHER QUICKLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS PRODUCED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SO FAR TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY EARLY EVENING. A SECOND FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...WAS
KICKING UP SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL TRACK
THIS AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE HRRR POP TRENDS...
BUT HAD TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS ITS MOVING A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR TIME LAG ENSEMBLE.
FOR THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WIND GUSTS EARLIER
TODAY AROUND 55 MPH WERE SEEN AT HETTINGER. WINDS NOW FALLING TO
THE MID 30S FOR GUSTS AND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
ON FRIDAY...THE PRECIP WILL END BY SUNRISE. WILL STILL HAVE A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH FRIDAY 40 TO 50.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH JUST A SMALL HINT OF CAPE ON
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT
THIS TIME BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A MENTION.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...DO NOT SEE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT WINDS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
AREAS MVFR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1201 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
UPDATED THE POPS WITH THE TIME LAG ENSEMBLE HRRR AND HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE CRITICAL POINT BETWEEN 34 AND 37
DEGREES SO RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW WILL BE THE WEATHER. PLACES
LIKE DENHOFF IN SHERIDAN COUNTY LIKELY TO GET ABOUT 2 INCHES.
OTHER LOCATIONS AND INCH OR LESS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW COMMA HEAD PRECIP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING SOUTH. HRRR SEEMED TO CATCH THIS TREND AND DEPICT
THE POPS WELL SO FAR SO UPDATED WITH THE HRRR TREND. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW WINDIEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE ADVISORY. NDDOT WEBCAMS SHOW
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SHOWING UP FROM STERLING TO DENHOFF OVER
TO MAX.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT TO LINE UP WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
ALSO DONE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ADJUSTMENT AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT HIGH-
RES MODELS INDICATE A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN.
EARLY THIS MORNING RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AS THERE IS VERY
LITTLE COLD AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM CANADA. IF TEMPERATURES DO DROP
BELOW FREEZING THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN THERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY MELT AFTER
SUNRISE.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEST PRESSURE RISES CONTINUED TO BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE
REACH THE MAGNITUDE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR BRIEF WIND ADVISORY READINGS...SO WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY
ARE.
TONIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IS WINDS. LARGE PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE STRONGEST WINDS (30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH) WILL KICK IN
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY LATER FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE STATE. SEVERAL WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BRINGING OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR OVER
MANY LOCATIONS AFTER 21Z. LATER TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CIGS DIMINISHING TO MVFR
LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV/WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
904 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW COMMA HEAD PRECIP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING SOUTH. HRRR SEEMED TO CATCH THIS TREND AND DEPICT
THE POPS WELL SO FAR SO UPDATED WITH THE HRRR TREND. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW WINDIEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE ADVISORY. NDDOT WEBCAMS SHOW
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SHOWING UP FROM STERLING TO DENHOFF OVER
TO MAX.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT TO LINE UP WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
ALSO DONE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ADJUSTMENT AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT HIGH-
RES MODELS INDICATE A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN.
EARLY THIS MORNING RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AS THERE IS VERY
LITTLE COLD AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM CANADA. IF TEMPERATURES DO DROP
BELOW FREEZING THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN THERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY MELT AFTER
SUNRISE.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEST PRESSURE RISES CONTINUED TO BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE
REACH THE MAGNITUDE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR BRIEF WIND ADVISORY READINGS...SO WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY
ARE.
TONIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IS WINDS. LARGE PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE STRONGEST WINDS (30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH) WILL KICK IN
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY LATER FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE STATE. SEVERAL WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BRINGING OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WHILE PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR OVER MANY LOCATIONS. LATER TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION MAY
AGAIN FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CIGS DIMINISHING TO MVFR
LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
AS EXPECTED...A DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS CAUSED A DELAY IN RAIN AT
THE SURFACE COMPARED TO RADAR ECHOES...BUT SINCE ABOUT 0130 UTC AN
INCREASE IN LIGHT RAINFALL REPORTS HAS BEEN NOTED. THUS IT APPEARS
SATURATION IS FINALLY TAKING PLACE...AND AS FORCING ONLY INCREASES
THROUGH 09 UTC /ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL ND/ PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BECOME EVEN MORE EFFICIENT. THIS UPDATE FOCUSED ON REFINING POPS
BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS AND THE 00 UTC NAM...WHICH DID
MEAN PUSHING THEM INTO THE CATEGORICAL /80 PERCENT/ RANGE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FORCING
WILL BE FOCUSED THERE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS UP ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
BUT WE ARE STILL CARRYING A MIX WITH AND POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW
IN MOST AREAS. RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR A MINOT TO STEELE LINE...
WHICH IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ITEM GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AGGRESSIVE QPF OUTPUT FROM THAT GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...LATER TRENDS WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MT AS OF 23 UTC AND IS ON
TRACK TO ENTER NORTHWEST ND IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT WE DID
DELAY THE EASTWARD PACE OF OUR ADVERTISED INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
OF 20+ F IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND. EVALUATION OF THE 18 UTC GFS
AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS STILL VERY
STRONGLY SUPPORT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
IN FACT...THE 18 UTC GFS PORTRAYS COUPLING BETWEEN STRONG LOW-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND 500-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTIVE OF RATHER ROBUST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
ND BETWEEN ABOUT 03 AND 12 UTC. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS PROBLEMATIC
AS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL WITH TIME...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE 40S F AND THAT DOES
RAISE SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW QUICKLY ANY CHANGE TO SNOW MAY TAKE
PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THAT ISSUE THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY NORTHWEST SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT...PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WEST AND SUSTAINING THROUGH THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST.
CURRENTLY...IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS SO RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC CU FIELD
DEVELOPED RATHER RAPIDLY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM S/WV
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
POTENT S/WV WITH STRONG PVA. INITIALLY WE HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO
BEGIN NORTHWEST...THEN EXPANDING THIS EVENING SOUTH AND EAST.
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW THEN ALL SNOW LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. RADAR SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE ECHOS AS
THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. MODELS COMING IN
WARMER IN THE MID 30S SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED TO LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH MANY AREAS. STILL MAY GET 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE COLDER SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST ALLOWING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. SNOW WILL FALL
ELSEWHERE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING ONLY
EXPECTED ON GRASSY AREAS OR ELEVATED STRUCTURES LIKE DECKS OR
ROOFTOPS. OVERALL IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...BUT SOMETHING
TO MONITOR TONIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING.
COLDER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 GIVE OR TAKE 3-4 DEGREES.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ELEVATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SNOW...RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...THEN
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT WEST...THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THIS IS
WHERE HEADLINES WERE ISSUED BASED IN LARGE PART ON BUFKIT DATA.
VERY POSSIBLE THE WIND ADV WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT NORTH OR
EAST. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WHEN NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIGHT ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS NORTHWEST FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH THROUGH WILLISTON
AND CROSBY. THINKING IS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED ENOUGH AND
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE/SURGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FOR FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
EXPECTED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO SPEED UP AND/OR SHIFT
BACK WESTWARD SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS BRING ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO MAY GET ANOTHER
RAIN/SNOW MIX TYPE EVENT. RIGHT NOW HEAVIER QPF REMAINS OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE...BUT
WILL HAVE A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST AND MUCH WARMER SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THEN TOWARDS MID-WEEK BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER STRONG S/WV INTO THE REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL
ISSUES SO UNCERTAINTY ELEVATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
WILL IMPACT KBIS WITHIN A FEW HOURS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 06 AND 18 UTC. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW IS LIKELY
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ040-041-043-
044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION
CONCERNING PCPN POTENTIAL. NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER IN
BRINGING PCPN INTO THE NW FA AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH 12Z SO UNCERTAIN ABOUT ANY -SN
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS GO AROUND. MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL
BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER WAVE DROPPING SE OUT OF S
CENTRAL SASK. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A WINTER MIX
MAINLY TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL DOWN OVER SE WY/NE CO/NEB
PANHANDLE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. MOST OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT DOWN THROUGH ND LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL SD BY TOMORROW. BOTH THE SHORT/HIGH RES
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL RUNS BRING SOME HEALTHY
QPF INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
AND RAP BOTH HAVE SOME FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
WITH GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z THURSDAY...THE
BEST FRONTOGENESIS/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO PRECIP TYPE.
THE SREF PROBABILITIES HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP...BUT TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC
LOW IN CANADA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. 925MB TEMPS ARE
RIGHT AT THE 0 C MARK...BUT SOME DYNAMIC COOLING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. INCLUDED SOME SNOW MIXING IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND PUT AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY HIGHLIGHT OUT
AT THIS POINT. THINK THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN AND HELP PUSH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT
GIVEN OUR TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE THESE TYPE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
WILL BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY WITH 20S AND 30S ON
SATURDAY. THINK THAT PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW...AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SAT
WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MON AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MEANS NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED... SLIGHTLY COOLER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN THROUGHOUT
TUES... IMPLYING WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS IN WESTERN ND SHOULD HAVE
A WARMING WESTERLY COMPONENT. ON WED A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA... BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
WITH EXCEPTION OF THE DVL TAF HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR AND PCPN
FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT PCPN POTENTIAL
WEST WITH ANY PCPN LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST. DID MENTION A TEMPO GROUP AT DVL IN THE AM AS PCPN BAND
SLIDES SOUTH AND MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF LOWER CIGS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
921 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK MID LEVEL SRN STREAM WAVE WAS
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF STRONG NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF...TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL DAMPEN
FURTHER AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TODAY...WITH PROGGED RAINFALL
RATES DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM GETS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
MOISTURE SOURCE AND RUNS INTO DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING.
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT TODAY WILL VARY WITH
THE RAIN...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS WITH THE WITH THE
BREAKUP OF THE INVERSION THIS MORNING...AND THEN AT THE ONSET OF
THE RAIN AS DAPE IS REALIZED. HOWEVER...ANY GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS AT
LEAST MUCH OF THE TIME TODAY. THUS WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY MENTION IN THE HWO
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE SYSTEM TODAY WILL MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W TONIGHT. THE FRONT...DRIVEN BY
AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THAT DAMPENS AS IT LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF A
L/W TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THEN A
SECOND S/W TROUGH THAT CARVES OUT THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD DAWN FRI.
THIS WILL BRING A SECOND...HEAVIER ROUND OF SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL
OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH SHOULD STILL BE MANAGEABLE.
IT APPEARS A PROGGED MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TODAY...BUT THIS CAP DISAPPEARS TONIGHT...MAKING ELEVATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY
BUT HAVE THE CHANCE IN FOR MOST OF THE NT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT WENT A
BIT HIGHER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL ALMOST
DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
TO START THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUN LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY. REALLY HATE TO KEEP PING
PONGING POPS BUT WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT SNOW WILL FALL. IT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT
WITH SNOWSHOE RECEIVING AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
IT DRIES OUT AND COOLS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE THE LOWER
50S IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. AGAIN
HAVE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER TREND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY BEHIND EACH COLD FRONT...WITH A BRIEF
REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL BRUSHES WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE S IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY...BUT THE STRONG S
WINDS...DOWNSLOPE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP CIGS VFR. VSBYS
MAY GO MVFR IN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER COME DAWN FRI
SRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING THIS MORNING.
GUSTS AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CAN REACH
25 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND 30 TO 35 KTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...EVEN UP TO 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS...ABOVE
3000 FT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SW.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW EFFICIENT THE WINDS MIX TO GROUND DURING
THE DAY TODAY...CONSIDERING THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. SO COULD SEE A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE
SHOWERS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
BREAKS IN THE LAYERED CLOUDS. SO CONFIDENCE SET AT MEDIUM ON
SURFACE WIND SPEED UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SURFACE WIND SPEED AND GUSTS WILL VARY. THEY
MAY BE GREATER AT THE ONSET AND THEN LESS DURING THE LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WIND SHEAR COULD BE CLOSE TO LLWS
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT BKW
AT TIMES. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
912 AM PDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT WITH
COOLER NIGHTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING BACK SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND
TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SEEING SOME COASTAL LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AGAIN
RISE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MONITORING A STRATUS BANK OUT 50 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE THIS MORNING THAT
THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS DON`T HAVE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WRF ARW
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON HOW THIS MAY IMPACT THE COAST
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR WINDS AND WRF ARW WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH SHOW A SHALLOW PUSH OF MARINE STRATUS INTO THE
COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH MOST OF THE
STRATUS LIKELY WON`T MAKE IT EAST OF THE COAST RANGE...SOME PATCHY
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COAST RANGE AND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING FOR ANOTHER SUNNY BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. ALONG THE COAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
WITH STRATUS PROBABLY RETREATING OFFSHORE AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SETS
UP BY LATE MORNING.
REST OF DISCUSSION UNCHANGED AND REMAINS VALID.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT INLAND AND FLATTEN SOME AS A WEAK
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER ON SAYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE WEAK
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL SPREAD SOME MARINE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK
UP AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS WITH SOME GAPS IN THE CLOUDS CLOSER
TO THE COAST RANGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL THE CLOUDS DO NOT LOOK VERY DEEP OR CONNECTED. SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON...AND WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST OF OREGON LATER IN THE DAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
INLAND AREAS ARE LOOKING DRY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THOSE
TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. MCCOY/TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THIS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE
MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST WE MAY GET RIDGING TO BUILD BACK UP MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. A TRICKIER
FCST FOR THE COAST...AS MARINE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONTO THE COAST. THE
FCST MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE
COAST THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PYLE/64
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PAVING
THE WAY FOR A LATE SEASON OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS
AND RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AS THE HRRR INDICATED...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AS OF 10 PM.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR NORTH
THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG THE RECENTLY
PASSED COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE BACK IN OVER THE SERN
ZONES. I EXPANDED THE THE COVERAGE A BIT TO COVER THE LATEST
HRRR...BUT THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS SEEM DESTINED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
MIN TEMPS HANGING ABOVE FREEZING BUT 850MB TEMPS DO SLIP JUST
BELOW ZERO SO COULD SEE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLC BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OF -2.5 TO -3SD MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH
VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY THE SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD FROM
SRN LWR MI ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING A SWATH
OF EARLY SPRING SNOW ACCUM OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS/POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 4 INCHES PROJECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. WHILE THE HIGH SUN ANGLE
OF EARLY APRIL USUALLY IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUM...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MAX QPF IS AT NIGHT WHICH IS MORE
FAVORABLE VS. DURING THE DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
SNOW IS THE WIND...WITH PEAK GUSTS LIKELY MEETING ADVISORY LEVELS.
STRONG CAA WILL TEAM WITH PRES RISES TO PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO
55 MPH RANGE. BOTH THE FORECAST SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LAURELS HAVE
PROMPTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW ACCUM AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SFC RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SECOND CLIPPER SFC LOW
QUICKLY ENTERS THE PICTURE DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STREAKING EWD FROM THE
OH VLY ACROSS CENTRAL PA SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. ANOTHER STRIPE
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN FAVORABLE FGEN ZONE ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA
FOR ACCUMULATION FOCUSED AGAIN OVER NORTHERN PA. TIMING OF MAX QPF
WITH THE 2ND WAVE IS LESS FAVORABLE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
LOOKS QUIET HAS THE HIGH MIGRATES OVER PA AND OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST BY WED NGT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE APPALACHIANS. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN AT LONG RANGES SO CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN ON THURSDAY IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM ON TUESDAY WITH -10 TO -20 DEGREE
DEPARTURES FROM THE MEAN BEFORE MODERATING SOME INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDS
AND LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE MOST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING DETERIORATING CONDS AT KBFD IN THE FORM
OF -SHRA AND BORDERLINE IFR CIGS BTWN 09Z-14Z. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES SLIDING OFF UP THE E COAST COULD GRAZE KLNS/KMDT WITH A BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN BTWN 09Z-14Z. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS TO
SUSTAIN VFR CONDS EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THRU CENTRAL PA
AND COASTAL LOW WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE AM...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-25KTS
DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN.
MAIN CONCERN LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WILL BE LOW PRES TRACKING
FROM THE LOWER GRT LKS INTO NORTHERN PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY TURN
TO SNOW OVER THE W MTNS...LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR VSBYS AT KBFD
AND POSSIBLY AT KJST/KUNV/KAOO DURING SAT EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...WINDY...ESP EARLY. SNOW WITH LOW VSBYS POSS KBFD EARLY AM...THEN
AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
MON...AM SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS NORTHERN PA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN/SNOW POSS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR PAZ004-005.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR PAZ024-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PAVING
THE WAY FOR A LATE SEASON OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS
AND RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AS THE HRRR INDICATED...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AS OF 10 PM.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR NORTH
THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG THE RECENTLY
PASSED COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE BACK IN OVER THE SERN
ZONES. I EXPANDED THE THE COVERAGE A BIT TO COVER THE LATEST
HRRR...BUT THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS SEEM DESTINED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
MIN TEMPS HANGING ABOVE FREEZING BUT 850MB TEMPS DO SLIP JUST
BELOW ZERO SO COULD SEE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLC BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OF -2.5 TO -3SD MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH
VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY THE SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD FROM
SRN LWR MI ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING A SWATH
OF EARLY SPRING SNOW ACCUM OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS/POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 4 INCHES PROJECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. WHILE THE HIGH SUN ANGLE
OF EARLY APRIL USUALLY IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUM...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MAX QPF IS AT NIGHT WHICH IS MORE
FAVORABLE VS. DURING THE DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
SNOW IS THE WIND...WITH PEAK GUSTS LIKELY MEETING ADVISORY LEVELS.
STRONG CAA WILL TEAM WITH PRES RISES TO PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO
55 MPH RANGE. BOTH THE FORECAST SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LAURELS HAVE
PROMPTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW ACCUM AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SFC RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SECOND CLIPPER SFC LOW
QUICKLY ENTERS THE PICTURE DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STREAKING EWD FROM THE
OH VLY ACROSS CENTRAL PA SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. ANOTHER STRIPE
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN FAVORABLE FGEN ZONE ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA
FOR ACCUMULATION FOCUSED AGAIN OVER NORTHERN PA. TIMING OF MAX QPF
WITH THE 2ND WAVE IS LESS FAVORABLE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
LOOKS QUIET HAS THE HIGH MIGRATES OVER PA AND OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST BY WED NGT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE APPALACHIANS. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN AT LONG RANGES SO CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN ON THURSDAY IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM ON TUESDAY WITH -10 TO -20 DEGREE
DEPARTURES FROM THE MEAN BEFORE MODERATING SOME INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY BTWN 00Z-02Z...AS BLYR
COOLS/STABILIZES. AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU NW PA AT 00Z WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 00Z-02Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS THE
REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...TWO AREAS OF CONCERN DEVELOP. IN THE VICINITY OF
KLNS/KMDT...A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN IS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-14Z ASSOC
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES RIDING UP THE E COAST. CURRENT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS TO
SUSTAIN VFR CONDS EVEN IF IT DOES RAIN. OVER THE NW MTNS...ARRIVAL
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING DETERIORATING CONDS AT
KBFD IN THE FORM OF -SHRA AND BORDERLINE IFR CIGS BTWN 09Z-14Z.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION
BY LATE AM...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
BTWN 20-25KTS DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN.
MAIN CONCERN LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WILL BE LOW PRES TRACKING
FROM THE LOWER GRT LKS INTO NORTHERN PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY TURN
TO SNOW OVER THE W MTNS...LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR VSBYS AT KBFD
AND POSSIBLY AT KJST/KUNV/KAOO DURING SAT EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...WINDY...ESP EARLY. SNOW WITH LOW VSBYS POSS KBFD EARLY AM...THEN
AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
MON...AM SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS NORTHERN PA.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...RAIN/SNOW POSS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR PAZ004-005.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR PAZ024-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COLDER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN PA.
THE LATE SEASON COLD PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF I-99 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE THAT A
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BAND IS FCST TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE SUSQ VLY AROUND 00Z.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM FCST WAS MADE TO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD /00-12Z FRIDAY/. POPS WERE LOWERED BETWEEN 00-06Z
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LULL OR BREAK IN PCPN. THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT LOOKS MORE INTERESTING WITH A POTENTIAL PREFRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN PA
ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT. THE LOW CAPE/STRONG
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS APPARENT WITH 55-60KT LLJ PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. THE INITIAL SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK CLIPS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES WITH MRGL RISK INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
POSSIBLE QLCS STRUCTURE. TIMING MAY ACTUALLY FALL VERY LATE IN THE
DAY 1 PERIOD JUST PRIOR TO 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON THE NCAR ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED TO BE UPDATED BY 1730 UTC.
PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT STILL EXPECT A VERY MILD AFTERNOON FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. INCREASED MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
SE WHERE READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60F OR +25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING THE SERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST/LWR SUSQ VLY. PWATS STEADILY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO TREND DOWNWARD IN THE SAME
WAY...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE RISK OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH A COLDER
PATTERN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHICH MAY SLOW THE FRONT ALONG THE
EAST COAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA AS THE EDGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW
REACHES WESTERN PA. MODELS FOCUS RAIN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
THE MID ATLC COAST BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EXTREME
SE. TEMPS WILL BE COULD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NW MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL TAKE A DECIDED TURN FOR THE COLDER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE REGION UNDER THE COLD NW
FLOW ALOFT.
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
LOWER GR LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS SETTING UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON LAKE EFFECT EVENT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH BASED INVERSION ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND
ALIGNMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAT IS MADE TO LAST INTO AT LEAST
MID DAY SUNDAY. WHILE SNOW COULD ACTUALLY BE IN THE AIR BEFORE
SATURDAY ENDS...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO STICK
UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND MORE LIKELY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE COLD AIR ESTABLISHES ITSELF.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF POTENTIAL INTEREST IS A CLIPPER LOW THAT THE
ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS SHOW DROPPING INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...THEN THROUGH PA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE TRACK AS IT IS PORTRAYED NOW WOULD
SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA COULD
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IT COINCIDES WITH THE FORCING UNDER A
RETREATING JET ENTRANCE REGION WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW-
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW THIS LOW A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS INDICATED FOR MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS MADE TO APPROACH FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY. TIMING BECOMES AN
ISSUE BETWEEN THE MODELS BY THEN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
FOR THE 31/12Z TAFS THROUGH 01/12Z FRIDAY | ISSUED 1130 AM EDT
SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME NW PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LKLY PUSH EWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
20-00Z. CIGS SHOULD TREND LOWER OVER THE NW AIRSPACE WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE AT BFD. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AIRSPACE BELOW MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT AGL. EXPECT A LULL IN
PCPN EARLY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A FEW TSTMS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS FROM
180-210 THROUGH THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM SHRA/REDUCED CIGS LIKELY. ISOLD AFTN TSTM PSBL SE PA.
SAT...PM SHSN/LOW VSBYS LIKELY W MTNS. BECOMING WINDY AT NIGHT.
SUN...WINDY. AM SHSN/LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
MON...CHC OF RAIN/SNOW...ESP NORTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER WILL BRING A
CANADIAN AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT...RADAR COVERAGE THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY BEEN
LIMITED TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
AREAS. THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST IS COMBINING WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN TN. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IS HOW MUCH INSOLATION AND HEATING WE WILL GET GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND THE UPPER CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. SOME BREAKS AT TIMES ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85. RAP PROFILES DEVELOP SOME NARROW SBCAPE ALONG WITH
SFC TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. ANY SUNSHINE TODAY COULD
PORTEND SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE JUMP.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
ON THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WHICH ARRIVES GENERALLY FROM 06Z
WEST TO 12Z EAST. THIS LINE MAY BE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME
MEASURE OF MUCAPE AND 40 TO 50 KT SHEAR ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE NORTHERN TIER SHOULD BE MORE STABLE...BUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE THE APEX OF A QLCS REACH OR
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. HODOGRAPHS DO LOOK IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH 0-1 KM
HELICITY REACHING 200 TO 300 M2/S2 OVER THE UPSTATE. COULD NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT NO FOCUSING BOUNDARIES EXIST AND WIND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY MORNING...CAMS INDICATE THAT A SOUTH
TO NORTH ORIENTED MCS WILL PUSH OFF THE MTNS ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS 0-2
KM HELICITY VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS RANGING FROM 300-400 M2-S2.
CAPE VALUES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 500-100 J/KG WITH LFC
BELOW 3 KFT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY YIELD EHI
VALUES AROUND 1 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. I WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT A ORGANIZED BAND OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN TOGETHER AS IT MOVES OFF THE MTNS...EAST ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS LINE WILL POTENTIAL RESULT IN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID DAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
MORNING CONVECTION WITH CATE POPS...REDUCING TO LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITHIN THE
MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
EVENING...TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE AND APPROACH OF THE H5
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MTNS TO UPPER 50S EAST OF I-85.
SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE FRONTAL
WAVE WILL REACH THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BY SUNRISE. THE NAM IS MUCH
SLOWER AND WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...I WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THIS APPROACH WILL SUPPORT PIEDMONT SCHC POPS THROUGH MID DAY...THEN
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER POPS TO SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 70 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE...SUN THROUGH
WED...WILL FEATURE GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW...POSSIBLY A
CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS THE MID WEST LATE ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
WEEKEND...SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST MORNING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS...LOW 40S EAST. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT H85 TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN NC MTNS SHOULD SEE H85 TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -5 C BY 12Z SUN.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW CHC
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY...DRYING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NC MTNS MAY RESULT
IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WITH VALLEY SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
NC ZONES...WITH AROUND 40 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE OR FROST FOR THE MTNS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WED IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAINLY VFR STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES...BUT WITH SOME MVFR
LAYER CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND IN THE WARM ADVECTION...AND THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP
WINDS ALIGNED SSE...SHIFTING A LITTLE TO SOUTHELRY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF ANY TSRA APPEARS A
BIT UNCERTAINY...BUT CAM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 00Z TO 03Z IS
PROBABLY STILL THE BEST BET FOR A TEMPO. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AFTER 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE MOISTURE...WITH MORE MVFR THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SC
TERMINALS...MAINLY AFT 21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF QUICK MOVING TSTMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AFT 06Z/07Z. EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGHOUT...BRIEFLY GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY. CLEARING SKIES AND DRYING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT MED 79% HIGH 100% MED 70% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 90% HIGH 88% MED 61% LOW 54%
KAVL HIGH 87% MED 78% MED 61% MED 61%
KHKY HIGH 87% MED 77% MED 62% MED 74%
KGMU HIGH 90% MED 79% MED 67% MED 69%
KAND MED 74% MED 68% MED 71% MED 79%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/SBK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS
AND AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:
1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.
IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF SET
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIKELY COME TO AN END AT JBR FOR
THIS TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT.
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT
MKL...MEM AND TUP. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. PREVAILING CIGS WILL BE MVFR.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-22Z...MKL FROM 21-24Z...AND TUP 22-02Z.
TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS
AND AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:
1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.
IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FINISHED BY 14Z AS INITIAL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT. MVFR/IFR CIGS
EARLY WILL BECOME VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:
1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.
IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FINISHED BY 14Z AS INITIAL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT. MVFR/IFR CIGS
EARLY WILL BECOME VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:
1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.
IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GREATEST COVERAGE AT
MEM LIKELY THROUGH 08Z. FOLLOWING A MORNING BREAK...LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE AND BECOME UNCAPPED TO TSRA
FORMATION BY 18Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH LOW
END MVFR OR UPPER END IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DROP INTO LOW END IFR AND LIFR THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN SATURATED. SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH ROUGHLY 10Z AT KDRT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z...BRINGING RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND
VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP
COVERAGE AS SCT AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/
UPDATE... /ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE/
RAIN CHANCES WERE NUDGED DOWN ONLY GENTLY AS THE 00Z NAM STILL
SHOWS A QPF PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MENTION OF THUNDER HAS BE DOWNPLAYED TO JUST PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF DEEP SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS
WITH A DRYLINE AHEAD OF IT. OVER OUR CWA WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE BOTH
AROUND FIVE TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD AND
THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE THROUGH OUR
AREA BY AROUND NOON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW...CONFINED
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL TO OUR WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS TEXAS AND DRY OUT OUR FORECAST. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
PUSH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AND KEEP THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 55 69 46 74 / 20 10 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 53 70 44 73 / 20 10 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 56 72 46 74 / 20 10 20 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 52 65 42 72 / 10 10 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 57 73 47 74 / 0 20 10 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 52 67 42 73 / 20 10 20 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 55 73 44 74 / 0 20 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 54 71 46 73 / 20 10 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 56 74 47 72 / 30 10 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 57 71 47 74 / 10 20 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 59 74 48 75 / 10 20 20 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO...MEDINA...UVALDE...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
605 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...LEADING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT THURSDAY...
NEXT 6 HOURS...6PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR HAVE PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 58 THIS EVENING. ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO
POSSIBLE. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 58...CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE...BUT
AIRMASS IS HAVING TROUBLE BECOMING SATURATED...SO LEANED AWAY FROM
ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS FROM HIGHWAY 460 NORTHWARD UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BE AWAITING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM CENTRAL
TN/KY. SHORT TERM ENHANCED MODELS BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM...THEN SPREADING EAST AFTER
2AM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WHILE MODELS
ARE TRACKING ONE WAVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA
AND ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE
MOST PART...ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF I64
IN VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TOWARDS I40 IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT IF THE FRONT
STALLS FARTHER TO THE WEST...SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL COME IN THE WAY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MILD TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S EAST. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY
FRIDAY AND A SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80F OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A SLOWER EXIT TO THE SHOWERS AND FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO HOLD
STEADY OVER THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. AS WE
HEAD TOWARD SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS IS GOING TO PUSH THE MAIN FRONT TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WILL TAKE PLACE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING IN AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME HIGH WINDS OVER THE TYPICAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS SAT NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BRING A DUSTING TO THE GRASSY SURFACES OF SE WV BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST.
SUNDAY WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO
MID 50S EAST.
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY SEE A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN VALLEYS
AND RIDGES...BUT OVERALL LOWS IN THE 30S EXPECTED CWA WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
EXPECT A CLIPPER TO MOVE ACROSS MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY APPEARS MAINLY DRY AND COOL WITH SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER THAT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL STAY AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON
STARTING IN THE WEST...THEN IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AS PREFRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 30 KNOTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. LIFT AND FORCING ARE STRONGER
TONIGHT...AND A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA (KDAN) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT STALL FARTHER
WEST...KLYH COULD GET IN ON SOME OF THIS ACTION. FOR NOW... MODELS
ARE KEEPING CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN TO VFR LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...LEADING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF IS STEALING SOME OF OUR MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE RAIN IS BEING DELAYED. RAIN MAY ENTER THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY AFTER 400 PM THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING.
AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND WITH A COUPLE OF THICK LAYERS OF DRY AIR SEEN ON THE
12Z SOUNDINGS. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWING AN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION...I HAVE A
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. TWEAKED A FEW OTHER GRIDS BUT NO
MAJOR OVERHAUL EXCEPT POPS.
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRENDING SLOWER WITH TIMING OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
TWO MAIN REASONS FOR ADJUSTING THE TIMING ARE THE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH TYPICALLY SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LEADING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BETTER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY ARRIVES AFTER NOON AS THE SHOWERS IN
TENNESSEE MOVE EAST...THEN THE LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHES THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOW.
BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY...WHICH MAY DESTABILIZED
AIRMASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE INTENSE STORMS BY THE TIME THE
LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL MEAN BETTER SURFACE BASED CAPE IF THERE IS
DECENT HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW OR STALL AS A WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SLOWED BY THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
IN GENERAL...SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
SLIGHT DELAY IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION
OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES FROM THE MID
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 IN THE PIEDMONT. FREEZE OR FROST
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CURRENT PROGRAM REGION OF
SENSITIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A LOW/TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THIS FEATURE...BRINGING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH OUR
REGION. ALSO...THIS REGIME WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING THAT EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
OCCASIONS WHERE FREEZE OR FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE CURRENT REGION OF SENSITIVITY - MONDAY MORNING...AND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. REGIONS TO WATCH FOR FREEZE OR
FROST CONDITIONS ARE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SMYTH COUNTY VIRGINIA...AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
REGION OF VIRGINIA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON
STARTING IN THE WEST...THEN IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AS PREFRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 30 KNOTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. LIFT AND FORCING ARE STRONGER
TONIGHT...AND A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA (KDAN) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT STALL FARTHER
WEST...KLYH COULD GET IN ON SOME OF THIS ACTION. FOR NOW... MODELS
ARE KEEPING CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN TO VFR LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
959 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...LEADING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND WITH A COUPLE OF THICK LAYERS OF DRY AIR SEEN ON THE
12Z SOUNDINGS. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWING AN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION...I HAVE A
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. TWEAKED A FEW OTHER GRIDS BUT NO
MAJOR OVERHAUL EXCEPT POPS.
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRENDING SLOWER WITH TIMING OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
TWO MAIN REASONS FOR ADJUSTING THE TIMING ARE THE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH TYPICALLY SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LEADING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BETTER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY ARRIVES AFTER NOON AS THE SHOWERS IN
TENNESSEE MOVE EAST...THEN THE LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHES THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOW.
BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY...WHICH MAY DESTABILIZED
AIRMASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE INTENSE STORMS BY THE TIME THE
LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL MEAN BETTER SURFACE BASED CAPE IF THERE IS
DECENT HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW OR STALL AS A WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SLOWED BY THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
IN GENERAL...SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
SLIGHT DELAY IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION
OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES FROM THE MID
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 IN THE PIEDMONT. FREEZE OR FROST
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CURRENT PROGRAM REGION OF
SENSITIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A LOW/TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THIS FEATURE...BRINGING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH OUR
REGION. ALSO...THIS REGIME WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING THAT EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
OCCASIONS WHERE FREEZE OR FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE CURRENT REGION OF SENSITIVITY - MONDAY MORNING...AND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. REGIONS TO WATCH FOR FREEZE OR
FROST CONDITIONS ARE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SMYTH COUNTY VIRGINIA...AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
REGION OF VIRGINIA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z/NOON EAST OF THE BLUR
RIDGE. AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 30
KNOTS AT KBLF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TODAY AND MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. LIFT AND
FORCING ARE STRONGER TONIGHT...AND A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE 12Z END
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR APPEARS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN TO VFR LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...LEADING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRENDING SLOWER WITH TIMING OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
TWO MAIN REASONS FOR ADJUSTING THE TIMING ARE THE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH TYPICALLY SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LEADING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BETTER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY ARRIVES AFTER NOON AS THE SHOWERS IN
TENNESSEE MOVE EAST...THEN THE LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHES THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOW.
BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY...WHICH MAY DESTABILIZED
AIRMASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE INTENSE STORMS BY THE TIME THE
LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL MEAN BETTER SURFACE BASED CAPE IF THERE IS
DECENT HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW OR STALL AS A WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SLOWED BY THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
IN GENERAL...SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
SLIGHT DELAY IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION
OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES FROM THE MID
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 IN THE PIEDMONT. FREEZE OR FROST
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CURRENT PROGRAM REGION OF
SENSITIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A LOW/TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THIS FEATURE...BRINGING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH OUR
REGION. ALSO...THIS REGIME WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING THAT EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
OCCASIONS WHERE FREEZE OR FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE CURRENT REGION OF SENSITIVITY - MONDAY MORNING...AND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. REGIONS TO WATCH FOR FREEZE OR
FROST CONDITIONS ARE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SMYTH COUNTY VIRGINIA...AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
REGION OF VIRGINIA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z/NOON EAST OF THE BLUR
RIDGE. AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 30
KNOTS AT KBLF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TODAY AND MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. LIFT AND
FORCING ARE STRONGER TONIGHT...AND A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE 12Z END
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR APPEARS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN TO VFR LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...LEADING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRENDING SLOWER WITH TIMING OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
TWO MAIN REASONS FOR ADJUSTING THE TIMING ARE THE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH TYPICALLY SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF.
MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LEADING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BETTER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY ARRIVES AFTER NOON AS THE SHOWERS IN
TENNESSEE MOVE EAST...THEN THE LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHES THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOW.
BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY...WHICH MAY DESTABILIZED
AIRMASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE INTENSE STORMS BY THE TIME THE
LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL MEAN BETTER SURFACE BASED CAPE IF THERE IS
DECENT HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW OR STALL AS A WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SLOWED BY THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
IN GENERAL...SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
SLIGHT DELAY IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION
OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES FROM THE MID
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 IN THE PIEDMONT. FREEZE OR FROST
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CURRENT PROGRAM REGION OF
SENSITIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A LOW/TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THIS FEATURE...BRINGING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH OUR
REGION. ALSO...THIS REGIME WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING THAT EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
OCCASIONS WHERE FREEZE OR FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE CURRENT REGION OF SENSITIVITY - MONDAY MORNING...AND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. REGIONS TO WATCH FOR FREEZE OR
FROST CONDITIONS ARE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SMYTH COUNTY VIRGINIA...AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
REGION OF VIRGINIA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z/8AM...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST AN MVFR CIG WILL DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER 09Z/5AM. ALREADY SEEING SPREAD OF THIS LOWER LAYER OF
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE. DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT
CONFIDENT ON MVFR COVERAGE...SO KEPT CIGS JUST ABOVE 3KFT FOR ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT KBCB.
LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY RIDGE TOP WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
PROTECTED UNTIL MIXING BEGINS THURSDAY.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TODAY.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
APPEARS IN ORDER FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN TO VFR ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
635 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
FALLING AS SNOW.
THE POSITION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES INVOF NOAM MAY SHIFT A
BIT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT PATTERN WL PRIMARILY FEATURE A RIDGE
NR THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN STATES. THERE WL
BE MORE VARIABILITY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LNGWV PATTERN. WE/LL
START OUT THE FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE...GRADUALLY LOSE
AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN HAVE THE PATTERN UNDERGO
REAMPLIFICATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT NWLY UPR FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BRIEF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN
THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PCPN TO RESULT IN AOA NORMAL AMNTS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN WI. NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY WITH LOCALLY BUT
BRIEF HIGHER PRECIP RATES. OTHER LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WILL LIKELY SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA...AND POISED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE IN THE
DOWNSLOPING AND EASTERN WI AREAS. THEN CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COMPACT
YET POTENT CLIPPER DIVES INTO THE STATE. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS CLIPPER...SO SHOULD SEE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR
BY SUNRISE.
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED THE MESOMODELS AND NAM FOR TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL TAKE IT FROM NEAR MEDFORD TO
SHEBOYGAN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG FGEN JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WILL LIKELY CREATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ROUGHLY FROM MERRILL TO MANITOWOC.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY NARROW...SO AMOUNTS MAY SHIFT
NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK. BUT WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8 C/KM...A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF 50-100MB
DEEP...MAY SEE LOCALLY BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH PER
HOUR. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WILL SHOW 2-3 INCHES IN THIS SNOWFALL
AXIS...BRINGING AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE I39/ROUTE
51 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE STRONGER SPRING SUN...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
DURING THE MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED OR SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 09Z. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG/GUSTY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY DUE TO THE WIND AND SNOW...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE ARND THE TIMING...TYPE...
AND AMNT OF PCPN. SOME FLURRIES LEFT OVER FM SYSTEM NUMBER ONE
COULD STILL BE AFFECTING THE FAR E AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM
PART OF THE FCST. SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT OF N-C WI ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...QUIET WX IS EXPECTED SAT NGT AS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS ACRS THE AREA.
PCPN CHCS WL INCR QUICKLY SUNDAY. THEY MAY TAPER OFF OVER THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST
PCPN WL ARRIVE AND WHEN IT WL DEPART...DIDN/T FEEL WE REALLY HAVE
THE FCST SKILL TO SUB-DIVIDE POPS BEYOND 12 HRS IN THIS SITN. THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTED A BIT S FM WHAT WAS EXPECTED YDA. THE
FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD STILL WARM INTO THE 40S...BUT
THE BULK OF THE AREA WL STAY IN THE 30S. ADJUSTED FCST TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE SNOW. CURRENT ESTIMATE IS THAT WE COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES
OVER ABOUT THE NERN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WL DROP SEWD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. SINCE THERE WL PROBABLY BE A FRESH SNOWCOVER ON THE
GROUND...IT WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD SPOTS IN N-C WI TO DROP BLO ZERO MON NGT IF
SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH. STUCK WITH SINGLE DIGIT (ABV ZERO)
MINS FOR NOW.
THE SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WL
BE LARGER AND MV MORE SLOWLY THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. THE OVERALL
TREND ON THE GUIDANCE WAS TO WEAKEN THE NWD PUSH OF WARM AIR AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE SYSTEM/S TRACK...
BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WL PROBABLY STILL BE ABLE TO DRAW ENOUGH
WARM AIR NWD TO RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING AS RAIN.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVG...
TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
A POTENT AND FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
IN NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD RHI/AUW/CWA
BY AROUND 10Z...AND AT THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-13Z.
A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES.
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...WITH GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS C/EC WI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ010-018-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
SURFACE LOW AT 31.08Z ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IA WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONCURRENTLY...A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS...A NARROW BAND
OF MODEST 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
ALBERT LEA MN TO MEDFORD WI...BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THROUGH 18Z AND
THEN DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...SOME SCATTERED RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRIMARY 500 HPA TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FREEZING MARK...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANGE
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON
ELEVATED/GRASSY SURFACES (HALF INCH OR LESS) WHERE SNOW FALLS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING
THAT REMAINING PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SWATH OF PRECIP ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN MI.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE PLENTY COLD FOR ALL SNOW GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS MOST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT UP TO AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF FRIDAY NIGHT/S SURFACE LOW...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING WINDY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST 35 TO
45 KTS IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TO ABOUT THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S. TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. ANY
PRECIP IS AGAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHERN WI. MONDAY LOOKS DRY
AND COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
RIDGING ALOFT TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ROBUST
PACIFIC WAVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PLENTY WARM FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP...BUT
WEDNESDAY IN PARTICULAR COULD BE ANOTHER RATHER WET DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND WILL OVERSPREAD BOTH TAF SITES BEFORE OR RIGHT AROUND
06Z. THE 31.03Z HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD MOVE PAST BOTH SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TO MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LAST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
WILL SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND BASED ON
THE 31.00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING...IT SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS AS ALL RAIN WITH NO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT KRST. THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN END AROUND 18Z OR SO.
EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LAST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY. THE VISIBILITY SHOULD QUICKLY COME
UP TO VFR BUT LOOK FOR THE CEILINGS TO MAKE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND
STAY MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NAM EVEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT THURSDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL
LET LATER FORECASTS ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THE BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE AND THE
YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH BASED ON THE RAIN THAT HAD FALLEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE PANNED OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED...
AND INDEED RIVERS ARE SHOWING SOME RISES. BUT THE RESPONSE HAS NOT
BEEN QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS ANTICIPATED ON THESE WATER COURSES...SO
WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH FLOOD LEVELS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. WE WILL
GET A BETTER GRASP ON THAT LATER THIS MORNING AS MORE RAIN REPORTS
AND ADDITIONAL RIVER DATA ARE RECEIVED. OTHERWISE...THE IMPACTS WILL
PRIMARILY BE ONLY WITHIN-BANK RISES. WE WILL SEE MORE LIGHT RAIN
TODAY...BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE EXCESSIVE TO SUGGEST MORE
LOCATIONS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
A FAIRLY ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF
MARCH AND WELCOME APRIL...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS BEING
EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...NOT TO
MENTION SOME TRICKY TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER WAVE WORKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS OF 17Z. QUITE THE
AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDERWAY SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE...WITH EARLIER
30S DEWPOINTS REPLACED BY VALUES RISING THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND POKING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...
WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE
EVENT THOUGH WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST TOUCHING FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. EARLIER PUSH OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...DRIVEN BY
A NICE SURGE OF 925-700MB MOISTURE ADVECTION....HAS EXITED WELL TO
THE EAST...WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT SAVE FOR A FEW
SPITS OF DRIZZLE AT TIMES AS WE IN "NO MAN`S LAND" AND AWAIT
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SPEAKING OF SUCH THINGS...STARTING TO SEE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FIRE OFF OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THROUGH
19-21Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...JUST IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH THAT ACTIVITY PERHAPS MERGING AND
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STILL NOT
SEEING MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY TIED TO A NOTABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER LAID
OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO CLIPPING NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE THE WARM SECTOR MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH TOWARD
01-04Z. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WITH 1-2+
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER PROGGED BUT
THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE WARM SECTOR AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...CAN ENVISION PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS LAYING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO MAYBE HALF OF THE
CWA WITHIN A SECONDARY ZONE OF MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THAT STUFF MAY WELL STICK AROUND RIGHT ON INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS
THE FGEN AXIS GRADUALLY PIVOTS NORTHWARD...WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND LOSS OF FORCING/MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING FEATURE...WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FAST ON ITS HEELS...DROPPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FIRST THING THURSDAY BEFORE ROUNDING THE TROUGH
BASE AND SKIRTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA. STILL SOME QUESTION
ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WILL OCCUR WITH THAT
WAVE...BUT CHANCES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW
LOOK IN ORDER...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A DUSTING IN SPOTS.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING LIKE A BRIEF RETURN TO A MUCH COOLER REGIME
INTO SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN FULL CONTROL. WILL BE
WATCHING YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THAT TROUGH...BUT PER
RECENT TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT MAY BE MORE OF AN EASTERN WISCONSIN/
GREAT LAKES PROBLEM WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE JUST SKIRTING
BY TO THE EAST. STILL...IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
WITHIN A TIGHT GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING INTO 40-45 KNOTS OF FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T LIKE THE SOUND OF THAT? WE MAY WELL TRY TO ABRUPTLY
CHANGE THE WEATHER FOR SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT SETTING UP NEARBY. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THAT FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT PARTS OF THE AREA
COULD SNEAK INTO SOME RATHER WARM AIR FOR A TIME...BUT IT`S ALSO
JUST AS LIKELY THAT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. IT IS ALWAYS INTERESTING TO SEE A 30+ DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A PARTICULAR
DAY...AND THAT IS INDEED THE CASE FOR SUNDAY - IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY. GUT FEELING GIVEN THE PATTERN IS SOMEONE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL SPIKE WELL INTO THE 50S TO MAY EVEN LOWER 60S WHILE NORTHERN
SPOTS MAY WELL BE STUCK WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE 30S/40S. STAY TUNED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
THE CLASSIC EARLY APRIL "ROLLER COASTER" PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
EARLY WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR LOOKING ON TAP BY
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT. COULD
ULTIMATELY END UP SEEING A TOUCH OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WITH THAT
FEATURE FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLY TEMPS TO START THE WORK WEEK...
ESPECIALLY IF WE REMAIN STUCK IN LOWER CLOUD COVER. HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK...FOR NOW AT LEAST THINGS LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPS GRADUALLY REBOUNDING UPWARD. IT
DOES APPEAR WE WILL HOLD IN A RATHER ACTIVE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP TOWARD THE VERY TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKE
THEIR APPROACH...THOUGH OF COURSE EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND WILL OVERSPREAD BOTH TAF SITES BEFORE OR RIGHT AROUND
06Z. THE 31.03Z HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD MOVE PAST BOTH SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TO MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LAST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
WILL SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND BASED ON
THE 31.00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING...IT SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS AS ALL RAIN WITH NO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT KRST. THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN END AROUND 18Z OR SO.
EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LAST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY. THE VISIBILITY SHOULD QUICKLY COME
UP TO VFR BUT LOOK FOR THE CEILINGS TO MAKE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND
STAY MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NAM EVEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT THURSDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL
LET LATER FORECASTS ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA...DEPOSITING A THIRD TO
HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT WITH NOT MUCH RAIN FALLING DOWN INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THAT`S PROBABLY A GOOD THING WITH OUR
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
TARGET THOSE LATTER AREAS TONIGHT WITH A GENERAL 1 TO MAYBE
LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN. OVERALL...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THAT AMOUNT OF WATER WITH JUST SOME IN-BANK RISES ON THE
RIVERS...BUT OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...GIVEN TRENDS FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINS AND CURRENT FORECASTS...HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH AND BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE...
THOUGH HONESTLY JUST HOW CLOSE WE COME TO FLOOD STAGE WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
A VERY CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...SOME
WINTRY.
THE UPPER PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS QUITE AMPLIFIED...AND DOMINATED
BY STG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW IS
SPLIT...WITH THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENERGETIC SRN
STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE WRN RIDGE WL LOSE AMPLITUDE DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM CONSOLIDATION OF THE FLOW IS
LIKELY AS VERY STG NWLY SPEED MAX DIGS SE ACRS CANADA AND INTO THE
ERN CONUS. ONCE THAT FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...A GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE
THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD.
TEMPS WL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE
REBOUNDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS LATE. THE COLDEST DAYS LOOK
TO BE SAT/SUN/MON...WHEN MOST AREAS WON/T BE ABLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END UP ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING WITH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI
AND THE CENTRAL U.P. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXITING NORTHEAST WI...WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. THINK WILL SEE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE WAVE AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG IT.
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
LOW...SHOULD SEE FGEN RAMP UP IN A REGION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVING INTO THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE MESOMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL MOSTLY FALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH AN
AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY GRAZE THE WINNEBAGO THROUGH KEWAUNEE
COUNTY AREAS. A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI TONIGHT...WHICH RIVERS SHOULD BE OK TO
HANDLE...UNLESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND BOOST RAINFALL FURTHER.
THINK CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING IS PRETTY LOW...BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY
LINE. OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE FAR NORTH TO LOW
40S IN THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO NORTHERN LOW MICHIGAN. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN
BEHIND THE LOW AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL FGEN INCREASES
AGAIN WITHIN A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
PRECIP LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AS MIXED PRECIP CHANGES TO ALL SNOW...2-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER
HIGH CONCERNING LOCATION OF THE BAND...AND ALSO THE IMPACTS ON
ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S. SINCE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL AFTER THE MORNING
COMMUTE...HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED IF THE COMMA HEAD
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...THINK PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG-TERM WILL BE TIED TO SHRTWVS
RIDING SEWD IN THE STRENGTHENING NWLY UPR FLOW. AS SUCH...TIMING
OF THE EVENTS IS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOME WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE SUITE
OF MODEL RUNS.
PCPN WITH WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL WV COULD LINGER PAST 00Z FRIDAY...
THOUGH IT SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. IT WL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A RACE TO SEE WHETHER COLDER AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO CHG PCPN TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS IN E-C WI...BUT EVEN IF
A CHANGEOVER OCCURS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER OR NOT A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
CROSSING THE REGION LATE THU NGT/FRI WL GENERATE PCPN. FORCING IS
NOT VERY FOCUSED...SO CARRIED CHC POPS MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHICH
FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE ECMWF.
SHRTWV IN LFQ OF INTENSE UPPER SPEED MAX WL DIG SE ACRS THE REGION
LATE FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEEPENING
CYCLONE THAT WL TRACK ACRS NRN WI. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE
N/NE...IN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE N. BUT THINK THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THE SYSTEM WL BE WIND. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT...ESP DURING THE AFTN...AS VERY DEEP
MIXING COMBINES WITH STG SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CAA. WL BEGIN
MENTIONING THE WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
SYSTEM SLIDING ESEWD ACRS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NGT WL BE TRACKING
ALONG VERY STG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COULD BE A PROLIFIC SNOW
PRODUCER. WARM AIR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SEEMS TO HAVE A WAY OF
MAKING IT A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATE...SO
SUSPECT BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE N. BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SYSTEM ENDS UP PRODUCING ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS
A STRONG SPRING STORM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LATE THIS
EVENING...MOST OF THE RAIN EXTENDED SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO
MARINETTE LINE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARDS SUNRISE. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
211 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO NERN NJ AND ALONG THE CT COAST AT 02Z PER
RADAR. NWLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS. LAST REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WERE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE S FORK. BEST CHC FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN COMES
TOWARD MRNG WHEN MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE RR QUAD OF
THE JET APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT AND
TRAVELS NE ALONG THE FRONT. A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO KEEP IN LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS
FAR NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO END UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PASSING EITHER OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY AFTER THE LOW CENTER`S PASSAGE...COUPLED
WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE NIGHT
SATURDAY.
REGARDING WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR VERY LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS BEING A VERY LATE 3RD PERIOD TO 4TH PERIOD
EVENT...AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR NOW. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME DOUBTS THAT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
AREAS AND LONG ISLAND SEE GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...THIS IS AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH.
AS FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...IT BECOMES LIKELY LATE AT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF BY NOONTIME
ON SUNDAY...BUT FOR ALL LOCATIONS IT LIKELY STARTS AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...RANGING TO A LIGHT COATING TO
NO ACCUMULATION OVER LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NJ.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S USING A NAM12/MAV/MET MOS BLEND. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX MEANDERING ABOUT HUDSON BAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST WITH RIDGING OUT WEST.
POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES SUN
NIGHT/MON. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE E IS REINFORCED MON INTO TUE. RIDGING BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK FOR WED...BUT YET ANOTHER DEEPENING ERN TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO
TYPICAL TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THU INTO FRI.
GUSTY WINDS SUN EVE WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WEAK WAA COMMENCES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUN NIGHT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA ON MON WITH NRN ZONES
HAVING THE BEST CHC FOR POSSIBLE MINOR AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE RECENT WARM WEATHER COULD CONFINE ACCUMS MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES. EARLY MON MORNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. GUSTY SW WINDS MON WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE LATE MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CAA DEVELOPS. GUSTY NLY WINDS
CONTINUE ON TUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SERN CANADA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY MORNING
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSING SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FROM THE NYC METRO TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST FROM 08Z WEST TO
19Z EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 19Z.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 06Z - 15Z
SUNDAY.
WINDS TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOME S BY 16Z THEN SW AT
15G25 KT AFT 18Z. GUSTS DISSIPATE BY 00Z.
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGHEST WINDS 09Z-15Z SUNDAY WNW
30-35 KT GUSTS 45-50 KT. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...COLD FROPA ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF SQUALL OF HEAVY
RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS...POSSIBLY THUNDER. STRONG NW
WINDS 30G45-50KT AFTER FROPA. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...A COATING AT NY/NJ AND LI
TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. STRONG NW WINDS 30G45KT IN THE MORNING...
DIMINISHING TO 20-25G35KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SNOW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING RAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EXPECTED. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING... PRIMARILY DUE TO A LINGERING SEA SWELL. WINDS THEN PICK
UP LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE WIND
WATCH. THINKING IS THAT THE OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING THIS...BUT WILL KEEP ALL WATERS UNDER THE WATCH LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...AND THIS BEING A VERY LATE
3RD PERIOD START TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...AT LEAST GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD BE REALIZED.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVSY LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY SUN
EVE...BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN MON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HIGH
PRES TO THE S. SCA IS THEN POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS RETURN FOR MOST OF WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JMC/JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
216 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
AND CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS THE H85 JET WILL HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW- LEVEL JET INDICATES A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT IS LOW
BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND HRRR PLUS PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS NORTH. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW/W ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING.
AGS/DNL HAVE BRIEFLY GONE VFR BUT EXPECT LOW CIGS TO RETURN WITH
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM S/SW
TO W/NW. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
111 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH
IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB
CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500
FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME
SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON
COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.
A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR
EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS
WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY
AREAS.
OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO
CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE
LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO
YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY
OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER
AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW.
FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
GUSTS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS UNTIL 10-11Z WHEN GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES. PRIOR
TO THIS WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 10-12KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 16KT ALONG WITH A POCKET OF MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MVFR CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS.
CURRENT TIMING IS THAT THE MIXED LAYER INITIALLY WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE BY 14-16Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-38KT AND BY MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE GUSTING BETWEEN 40-44KT FROM A 290-320
DIRECTION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND COULD
BEGIN TO MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS...AND MAY PRODUCE A CLOUD BASE
AROUND 2500FT AGL. PRECIP QUICKLY EXITS EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR LIFTING CLOUD BASES AND
EVENTUALLY PRODUCING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
320 PM CDT
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A
PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES
THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
354 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY.
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
ACRS NORTHERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT
MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY
THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE
BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW
SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME
NORTHEAST BUREAU.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING
PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE
PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY
COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS
IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND
WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND
ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD
VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME
OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50.
TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN
CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE
SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS
THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE
DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.
SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOTHE
OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20
TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM
READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM
THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION
EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2
KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE
OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE
HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L
30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.
MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH
NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE
A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS
HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING
FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY.
WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE...
THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION
OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO
OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO...
THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN
THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND
LOWS MAINLY 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THE NEXT 24
HOURS....AS 10 TO 20 KT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
CHANGE BY 10Z TO NORTHWEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH
INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL BE VERY VERY SHORT LIVED...BUT COULD
MOMENTARILY DROP VISIBILITIES. DUE TO THE VERY SHORT NATURE OF
THIS...I CHOSE TO USE VCSH TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY. WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE WILL SEE WINDS BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25
TO 35 KTS ALL DAY...WITH SOME MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS LIKELY
DURING THE 15Z TO 20Z PERIOD SATURDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING SATURDAY...AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
VFR/CLEAR. ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-
DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-
MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-
WHITESIDE.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
...VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES
TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND
BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG H925-H850 JET
RUNNING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS ALOFT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS DOWN
TO THE SFC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS H850
TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN -7 AND -10 C. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT BE REALIZED WILL BE LIGHT AT
BEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS
PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
TERMINALS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-085>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
The two main concerns in this forecast are strong winds this
afternoon and freezing temps tonight. Both events are likely to be
focused mainly north and east of a kmdh to khop line, courtesy of
a deepening low pressure system that will move east across the
Great Lakes region.
Westerly low level winds will ramp up through the day as the
system deepens to our north today. RAP and NAM wind profiles both
indicate around 40 knots at 925 mb during the latter part of the
afternoon over the Wind Advisory area, which includes southwest
Indiana and adjacent counties. Bufkit data indicates mixing
heights will be very high this afternoon, briefly reaching 750 mb.
Therefore, gusts to 40 knots will be forecast in the advisory
area, which will be expanded slightly to include kmvn as well as
more of nw Kentucky. Low level wind fields are weaker farther
south and west, where gusts should generally be under 40 mph.
Plenty of sunshine and dry air should contribute to strong mixing
and elevated fire potential, mainly where fuels are drier across
the Ozark foothills.
The next item on the docket is near-freezing temps late tonight. A
weak surface high pressure center will pass directly over the
forecast area around 12z Sunday. This will allow winds to diminish
to nearly calm by morning. However, winds may be slow to die
because the very deep mixed layer will take much of the night to
stabilize. Since winds are expected to stay up well into the night
and the air will be quite dry, a widespread frost is not expected.
However, a light freeze is quite possible in much of southern IL,
southwest IN, and nw Kentucky. Will keep the Freeze Watch in
effect and even expand it into parts of western Kentucky.
On Sunday, winds will become southerly on the back side of
retreating high pressure. 850 mb temps will increase to around
plus 8, which would normally support highs of 70 or better.
However, surface temps will be suppressed by a fairly low
subsidence inversion based around 925 mb. Highs should be mainly
in the lower to mid 60s.
On Monday, a cold front will sink southward across our region. The
models continue to trend drier with this feature, and pops will be
kept at or below 20 percent. In the wake of the front, lows could
again be near freezing, especially east of the Mississippi River
Monday night.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Forecast issues in the long term include chances for precipitation
Tuesday night through Thursday night. Frost may also be possible in
our northern counties Thursday night.
In the wake of a front on Monday, Tuesday will be dry and seasonably
cool under the influence of weak mid level ridging. Highs will only
reach into the middle and upper 60s. Winds will shift back to the
south late in the day in advance of the next storm system.
This storm system will drop south out of the upper level ridge to
the west. Models are in decent agreement showing there will be
enough moisture to include showers across much of the area beginning
Tuesday night and encompassing the entire region Wednesday and
Wednesday night before moving east on Thursday. Models show enough
instability to include thunder through most of the period.
Cool dry high pressure drops south across the region to end the week
with dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures with highs around
60. Frost may be possible across the I-64 corridor once again with
lows dipping down into the middle 30s. Temperatures begin a slow
warm up on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Few if any clouds today, with gusty west winds. Frequent gusts
20-30 kts. A few higher gusts across southeast IL, into southwest
IN. Mainly clear tonight with decreasing winds.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
ILZ075>078-082-083-087.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for ILZ075>078-082-083.
MO...None.
IN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for INZ081-
082-085>088.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
KYZ014>022.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KYZ018>020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...CN/MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
421 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTION PACKED WEEKEND IN FRONT OF US WITH TWO SUCCESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WAVELENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS SET TO SWING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE SECOND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
DESPITE BEING SMALLER IN STATURE...ALL SIGNS POINT TO EACH OF THE
SYSTEMS PACKING THEIR OWN PUNCH.
VERY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG LOW DEEPENING
RATES...IS CURRENTLY DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
POSITIONING WITH A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO THE VICINITY OF
DULUTH...MN AS OF 0700Z. MODELS SUPPORT THE CRUX OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND IMPINGEMENT OF LEAD LEFT EXIT JET SURGE TO THE
BORDER REGION OF MI/IN/OH ALREADY BY 18Z WHICH IS NOW SLIGHTLY AHEAD
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. THIS PRESENTS A LITTLE BIT OF A CONUNDRUM
BECAUSE AT THIS SAME TIME...THE PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION WANTS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY...MORE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DTX CWA. THE END RESULT IS A LITTLE MORE OF
A DIFFUSE LOW CENTER...WITH A MORE SHARP/TIGHT/COMPACT MSLP GRADIENT
ON A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL FAVOR THE MORE FAVORABLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER OR STING JET REGION...SAY RIGHT THROUGH
THE DETROIT AREA.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TODAY HAS TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN...1. THE
HIGH END WIND POTENTIAL FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AND THE SHORELINE AREAS ALONG THE THUMB THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE ONSHORE FLOW....2. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION
RATES IN SNOWFALL FROM THE DETROIT SUBURBS NORTHWARD...BUT PRIMARILY
SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS.
A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS TO CONVEY ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WITH THE
IDEA OF A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW CENTER...THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL
FORCING SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE ON THE IMMEDIATE
BACKSIDE OF THE SHARP SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF
ISALLOBARIC AND GRADIENT WIND COMPONENTS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN
HIRES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS THAT A LOW TOPPED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE COULD IGNITE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SEGMENT OF
THE LINE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES
BETWEEN 21-00Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THIS
ASCENT/SUBSIDENCE DELINEATION THAT WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. FOR THIS REASON ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-03Z.
THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE SHORELINE AREAS
OF TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
WITH REDUCED FRICTION FLOW COULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH.
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT (SEE BELOW)...WILL INCLUDE
A BREAKOUT IN THE WSW TO BULLET POINT THIS HIGHER WIND THREAT FOR
THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
THE OTHER HUGE DISCUSSION POINTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS ON
PRECIPITATION RATES...TYPE...AND AMOUNTS. THE EASY SUBJECT IS
PRECIPITATION RATES AND TYPE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SOUNDING THAT IS PRACTICALLY ON ITS
SIDE WITH VERY STEEP AND SATURATED LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO
THE TROPOPAUSE/OR 18 KFT AGL. WITH THE VERY LOW STATIC STABILITY TO
EVEN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MODELS SUPPORTING FREEZING HEIGHTS AT LESS
THAN 1 KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET...ALL
AREAS SHOULD WITNESS SNOWFLAKES OUT OF THE HIGHEST RATES.
OVERWHELMINGLY THE MORE DIFFICULT TOPIC IS AMOUNTS. THE DISCUSSION
FROM YESTERDAY HIGHLIGHTED A COUPLE OF REASONS THAT ACCUMULATION
EFFICIENCY MAY BE COMPROMISED...WET/MILD GROUND CONDITIONS AND
AFTERNOON INSOLATION EFFECTS. ANOTHER NEGATIVE HAS APPEARED IN THE
FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE MORE
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OF A DEGREE OR TWO IS WREAKING COMPLETE HAVOC
ON BOTH THE MODEL PTYPE ALGORITHMS AND THE LOCAL SNOW RATIO TOOL.
COULD GO BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATES OF 1
INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER AND FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS...THE DECISION
WAS TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/ST CLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD. IN SHORT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH 2
OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN 3 HOURS. THE RAP AND SOME OF THE HIRES
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ON A MINI/PSEUDO
TROWAL AXIS SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS (19-
01Z). ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA/NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION/DEFORMATION
AXIS.
NO SURPRISES IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH REGARDS TO THE SECOND
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SEEMED TO
CONGEAL ONTO THE IDEA OF AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
DETROIT METRO WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ROCKING JUST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM NOSE AWAY
...LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE OR FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE THAT STILL EXISTS IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH THE ECMWF
STILL VERY WELL TEMPERED IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ENOUGH SO THAT IT WAS
A FAIRLY EASY DECISION TO FORGO ANY WINTER STORM WATCH
CONSIDERATIONS. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST IS STILL SIDED HEAVILY
TOWARD A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY SOLUTION WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 PRIMARILY 18Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL EXIST BUT POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FOR THE TERRAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WITH THIS LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORM REACHES THE EASTERN
LAKES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GALES WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST WINDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD...TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE STORM. THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY ALSO SEE FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PEAKS. THIS
STORM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL FEATURE
AN UPTICK IN WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WHILE BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING RAIN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ABOUT M-59 AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL AGAIN TARGET LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF
M-59 WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE METRO
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REACH NEAR A HALF INCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MAY RESULT IN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND THE I-69
CORRIDOR.
WITH THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY SWOLLEN AND SOILS
SATURATED...ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THIS NEW PRECIPITATION FALLING
OVER THE REGION. HELPING MITIGATE SOME ISSUES WILL BE THE FACT IT IS
FALLING OVER THE COURSE OF AROUND 36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
WILL ALSO HELP BY HOLDING MOISTURE AND SLOWLY RELEASING IT AS IT
MELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
WHILE THERE IS SOME DISSIPATION TO THE RAIN/SNOW WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA...SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z BEFORE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS EXIT EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BRIEF INTERVAL OF LOW END MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING
THIS PRECIP...INTERVALS OF LOW END MVFR TYPE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME
PERIODS OF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING.
STRONG WINDS WILL THEN ENSUE LATE IN THE FCST AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS
TO THE EAST.
FOR DTW...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
RAIN SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY CHANGE OVER SNOW SAT EVENING. WX
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LARGE IMPACTS AT METRO LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO BOTH PERIODS OF HIGH INTENSITY SNOW
SHOWERS AND STRONG CROSS WINDS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. HIGH ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOW IN PRECIP TYPE BEING SNOW TONIGHT. MEDIUM IN PRECIP BEING SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* HIGH IN W-NW WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-
422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
418 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Main concerns today will be windy conditions and elevated fire
conditions. For the fire concerns...see the fire weather section
below.
A shortwave trough will drop out of Canada into the western Great
Lakes today. Its associated surface low will help tighten up the
pressure gradient across Missouri and Illinois today which will
cause very windy conditions. Expect mainly sunny conditions in
addition to the forecast soundings showing deep mixing up to 800mb,
so there should be gusts on top of the already strong sustained
winds. Will need to expand the advisory westward to included some
Missouri counties including the St. Louis metro area based on the
newest MOS guidance and mixing down RAP winds.
Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front
causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection. Highs
are close to a a mix of GFS/NAM MOS temperature guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
(Tonight through Monday)
Have gone with a freeze warning for tonight over parts of west
central and south central Illinois. Upper trough and associated low
pressure will move quickly east this evening and surface ridge will
move across area overnight. With clear skies and there being a
period of light winds, still expect areas of frost to develop. Not
sure however how widespread the frost will be as the ridge will move
off to the east by 12Z, and winds will already turn out of the south
which may inhibit some frost formation. However, still expect lows
to reach 32 or lower over west central and south central Illinois by
late tonight, so went ahead and issued a freeze warning in these
areas.
Still looks Sunday will be much warmer as winds will turn out of the
southwest ahead of this next cold front which move through the area
on Sunday night. With mixing up into the 900-800mb layer and plenty
of sunshine, still expect highs to range from the lower 60`s from
south central Illinois to the lower 70`s over northeast and central
Missouri. Both the NAM/GFS show that cold front passing through the
area on Sunday night with closer to normal temperatures on Monday.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Not much change to going forecast as the upper flow becomes more
amplified during the period. Trough over the northern Plains on
Tuesday will dig southeastward and become a deep trough over the
eastern CONUS by Thursday with large ridge over the west. In the
meantime, it still appears that the GFS/ECMWF are in decent
agreement that the trough and its attendant cold front will pass
through Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday, so will continue with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Chance of
showers will linger into Wednesday night before turning dry late in
the week.
Tuesday will be relatively cool in the southeast flow from the
receding surface high before we get warmer ahead of the cold front
on Wednesday. Then temperatures will begin to cool off again
underneath the upper trough.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. NW surface winds will back SW early Saturday morning ahead
of another cold front that will rapidly cross thru later on
Saturday morning. With cold FROPA, winds will veer back from the
W-NW and strengthen as well, with gusts to 30-40kts expected for
much of the day, diminishing again around sunset and approach of a
surface RIDGE.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
We will have an elevated fire danger both today and on Sunday for
low relative humidity values...dry fuels and windy conditions.
Forecast fuels are expected to be in the 9-10 percent range today
which is what they fell to yesterday according to the RAWS
observations. Relative humidity values are expected to fall into
the 25-30 percent range across all but south central Illinois
today and tomorrow. Winds are expected to be out of the west
between 10 and 25 mph with higher gusts today. They are expected
to be out of the southwest tomorrow between 10 and 20 mph.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis
MO.
IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette
IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-
Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1205 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER ON
THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST TO SOME AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1210 AM SATURDAY...WE ARE IN A LULL BETWEEN OFFSHORE
CONVECTION AND THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. I HAVE REMOVED THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT APPEARS
THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY STRATIFORM.
POPS ARE AT LEAST 80 PERCENT HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ONE
OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HARDLY BUDGE THROUGH SUNRISE. DISCUSSION FROM 830 PM FOLLOWS...
CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED THIS EVENING LIKELY RESULTING FROM THE
EARLIER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WHICH MUTED SURFACE
HEATING TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND OFF THE
SOUTHERN SC COAST AND HEADING AWAY FROM SHORE. MEANWHILE...RADAR
SHOWING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIRECT HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT AS WELL DUE TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
HAVE DIMINISHED IN OUR PART OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...LASTLY ALONG THE COAST.
THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND IS OFFSHORE. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA ON INCREASING WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVE...SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR WITH CLEARING LIKELY HOLDING OFF
LONGEST AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING SUN AND CLEAR SKIES
SUN NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
DROPPING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SAT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ON SUN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHICH
WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO 10+
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA...AS WILL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR
MIDWEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HIT THE FREEZING MARK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PLAN TO ADD PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUE NIGHT-
WED MORNING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARDS 70 ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THAN THE ONE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO A BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE. ANOTHER
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING
INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING FIREWORKS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SPORADIC STRIKES. PRECIPITATION INDUCED
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS WELL MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE CONVECTION TO THE COAST
BY 04-05Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. SATURDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1210 AM SATURDAY....ASIDE FROM ENDING THE POTENTIAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SEAS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW FORECAST
LEVELS AT MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THEM ON-FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 830 PM
FOLLOWS...
LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT INSHORE UP TO 5 TO 6 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS WHICH IS HOLDING SPEEDS BACK SOME. ANY
CONVECTION THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL FURTHER SKEW THE LOCAL WIND
FIELD TEMPORARILY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN INITIAL
WIND SPEED CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
AS IS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE W...VEERING TO NW. THE
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO N DURING SUN AND NE SUN EVE BEFORE BECOMING
ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SUN...TRENDING TOWARD SE AND
S. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER INTO
SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER IN OFFSHORE FLOW SUN...2 FT OR
LESS SUN NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH 4-5
FOOT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM SHORE AS A RESULT OF
15-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE
SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING
SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT
OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER
ADVSIORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO
WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z.
FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING
AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY.
THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT
TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S
FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS
SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT
WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL
LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE
PROLONGUED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS
STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY
12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES
IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV
FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER
TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
MAIN CHALLENGE WAS TIMING WSHFT AND INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH
VSBY WITH QUICK SHOT OF SNOW MAINLY OVER THE N/NE SITES. FOLLOWED
PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON ALL CONCERNS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5MB ARE
MAXIMIZED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR ACHIEVING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND EXPECTING
LESS THAN ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
FOSTER AND STUTSMAN AT THIS TIME. OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
WE REDUCED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE /ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND/ IN RESPECT TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT MOS
AND RAW 2-METER MODEL GUIDANCE...DESPITE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS. OUR WIND ADVISORY
IS ON TRACK AS GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45 MPH IN PLACES LIKE ROLLA AS
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTHWARD...AND IT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY ABOUT 04 UTC PER RECENT RAP TRENDS. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WINDS EASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THEIR INITIAL PRESSURE-
RISE-DRIVEN RESPONSE PER UPSTREAM TRENDS...SO THE GOING 06 UTC END
TIME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WIND AVISORY APPEARS ON TARGET
TOO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR PLACE-
MENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. AS OF 2325 UTC...MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EVOLVING CLIPPER WHICH
HAS ITS SURFACE LOW WEST OF WINNIPEG AT THIS HOUR. THE 20-22 UTC
RUNS OF THE RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH 35
KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ND
HAVE APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THERE. THUS...WE WILL NOT EXPAND THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CHANGED THE
WIND ADVISORY START TIME IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 7 PM CDT (ENDING
AROUND 1 AM CDT) TONIGHT...AND BEGINNING AROUND 10 PM CDT FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA (ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE - AROUND 4 AM
CDT). THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS - ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MONTANA (TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S) AND INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S). MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HUDSON BAY
LOW WITH A WEST COAST RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WAS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE - ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW FEATURE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA
AND REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS - AROUND 40-55 KNOTS AT H850 AND 65-
75 KNOTS AT H700 DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT (6-7PM) AND THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY AROUND 03Z (9-
10PM). LOOKING AT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST.
THE FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER REACHES WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY LASTING ONLY AROUND 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS WILL JUST MAKE
CRITERIA OF AROUND 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW) MOVES EAST...IT ALLOWS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUS A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ONLY AROUND
40 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. STILL ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL (HIGHS IN THE 60S)...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS (HIGHS IN THE 40S). A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSHOWERS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COLD ADVECTION IS BRIEF...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AGAIN PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TO BRING A WARM DAY MONDAY.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE BREAKS INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/WYOMING AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS MANITOBA
AND THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY. COULD BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S
WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER PATCHY/BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT KMOT AND KJMS THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT KJMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ025-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
FALLING AS SNOW.
THE POSITION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES INVOF NOAM MAY SHIFT A
BIT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT PATTERN WL PRIMARILY FEATURE A RIDGE
NR THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN STATES. THERE WL
BE MORE VARIABILITY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LNGWV PATTERN. WE/LL
START OUT THE FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE...GRADUALLY LOSE
AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN HAVE THE PATTERN UNDERGO
REAMPLIFICATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT NWLY UPR FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BRIEF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN
THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PCPN TO RESULT IN AOA NORMAL AMNTS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN WI. NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY WITH LOCALLY BUT
BRIEF HIGHER PRECIP RATES. OTHER LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WILL LIKELY SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA...AND POISED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY KEEP SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE IN THE
DOWNSLOPING AND EASTERN WI AREAS. THEN CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COMPACT
YET POTENT CLIPPER DIVES INTO THE STATE. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS CLIPPER...SO SHOULD SEE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE I39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR
BY SUNRISE.
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED THE MESOMODELS AND NAM FOR TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL TAKE IT FROM NEAR MEDFORD TO
SHEBOYGAN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG FGEN JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WILL LIKELY CREATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ROUGHLY FROM MERRILL TO MANITOWOC.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY NARROW...SO AMOUNTS MAY SHIFT
NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK. BUT WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8 C/KM...A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF 50-100MB
DEEP...MAY SEE LOCALLY BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH PER
HOUR. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WILL SHOW 2-3 INCHES IN THIS SNOWFALL
AXIS...BRINGING AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE I39/ROUTE
51 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE STRONGER SPRING SUN...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD
DURING THE MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED OR SLICK ROADS.
THEREFORE...WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 09Z. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG/GUSTY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY DUE TO THE WIND AND SNOW...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE ARND THE TIMING...TYPE...
AND AMNT OF PCPN. SOME FLURRIES LEFT OVER FM SYSTEM NUMBER ONE
COULD STILL BE AFFECTING THE FAR E AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM
PART OF THE FCST. SOME SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT OF N-C WI ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...QUIET WX IS EXPECTED SAT NGT AS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS ACRS THE AREA.
PCPN CHCS WL INCR QUICKLY SUNDAY. THEY MAY TAPER OFF OVER THE FAR
W LATE IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST
PCPN WL ARRIVE AND WHEN IT WL DEPART...DIDN/T FEEL WE REALLY HAVE
THE FCST SKILL TO SUB-DIVIDE POPS BEYOND 12 HRS IN THIS SITN. THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTED A BIT S FM WHAT WAS EXPECTED YDA. THE
FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA COULD STILL WARM INTO THE 40S...BUT
THE BULK OF THE AREA WL STAY IN THE 30S. ADJUSTED FCST TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE SNOW. CURRENT ESTIMATE IS THAT WE COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES
OVER ABOUT THE NERN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WL DROP SEWD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. SINCE THERE WL PROBABLY BE A FRESH SNOWCOVER ON THE
GROUND...IT WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLD SPOTS IN N-C WI TO DROP BLO ZERO MON NGT IF
SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH. STUCK WITH SINGLE DIGIT (ABV ZERO)
MINS FOR NOW.
THE SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WL
BE LARGER AND MV MORE SLOWLY THAN ITS PREDECESSORS. THE OVERALL
TREND ON THE GUIDANCE WAS TO WEAKEN THE NWD PUSH OF WARM AIR AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE SYSTEM/S TRACK...
BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WL PROBABLY STILL BE ABLE TO DRAW ENOUGH
WARM AIR NWD TO RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PCPN FALLING AS RAIN.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016
A POTENT AND FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
IN NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD RHI/AUW/CWA
BY AROUND 10Z...AND AT THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-13Z.
A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES. VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED
ACROSS C/EC WI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ010-018-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH AFTERNOON...
BAND OF PRE FRONTAL STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE NORTH HALF. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN FAST MOVING STORMS. CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF NO RAIN. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND ALSO
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE IT HAS STARTED OFF
OVERCAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
BASED ON RECENT HRRR MODEL...BAND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND KMCO VCNTY IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN KMLB-KVRB BY MID AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED WITH +TSRA AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR-HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES. A BAND OF
STRONG STORMS WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE COAST NORTH OF CANAVERAL
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH OF THE CAPE TO THE
TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SOME
STORMS. A FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INDIAN
RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
AM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX/RADAR...WEITLICH/SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
956 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
ISALLOBARIC SURGE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IA OVER THE PAST
HOUR WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
AT THE MOST WIND-PRONE SITES. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW
THIS AXIS OF HIGHEST PRESSURE CHANGE FROM ABOUT DUBUQUE TO
FAIRFIELD...WITH THE EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK ON SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AREA OF FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS FROM ABOUT CLINTON TO
CEDAR RAPIDS.
HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS TO HIT WINDS HARDER...BUT
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEFORE STARTING
TO WANE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY.
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
ACRS NORTHERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT
MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY
THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE
BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW
SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME
NORTHEAST BUREAU.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING
PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE
PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY
COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS
IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND
WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND
ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD
VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME
OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50.
TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN
CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE
SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS
THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE
DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.
SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20
TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM
READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM
THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION
EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2
KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE
OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE
HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L
30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.
MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH
NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE
A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS
HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING
FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY.
WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE...
THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION
OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO
OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO...
THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN
THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND
LOWS MAINLY 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
AS THE MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECK WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING...THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG LLVL WINDS AND TURBULENT CONDITIONS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXCEPT MAYBE AT BRL WHERE THEY
WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 35-40 KTS. AN APPROACHING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE SFC WINDS TO DECREASE SHARPLY BY
EARLY EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM PUSH. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RVR VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF DAY.
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
ACRS NORTHERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT
MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY
THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE
BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW
SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME
NORTHEAST BUREAU.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING
PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE
PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY
COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS
IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND
WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND
ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD
VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME
OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50.
TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN
CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE
SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS
THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE
DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.
SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20
TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM
READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM
THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION
EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2
KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE
OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE
HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L
30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.
MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH
NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE
A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS
HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING
FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY.
WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE...
THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION
OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO
OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO...
THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN
THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND
LOWS MAINLY 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
AS THE MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECK WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING...THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG LLVL WINDS AND TURBULENT CONDITIONS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXCEPT MAYBE AT BRL WHERE THEY
WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 35-40 KTS. AN APPROACHING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE SFC WINDS TO DECREASE SHARPLY BY
EARLY EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WARM PUSH. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED
SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL APPEARS CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN. WHERE THE
LOWER CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING THIS WILL TEMPER THE TEMPERATURE RISE
AND HELP TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY A LITTLE HIGHER LONGER INTO THE
DAY. CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS RUNNING 50 TO 65 PERCENT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE A CLOSE CALL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RED FLAG
WARNING WOULD HAVE TO BE EXTENDED A FEW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
WITHIN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AREA AS WELL. AS SUCH THE PLAN
IS TO LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS IS AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.
ALREADY SEEING SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AND WINDS STILL
ON TRACK TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET MORE
SUN. WITH THAT IN MIND THE WINDS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
WIND CRITERIA LOOK ON TARGET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TO
BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
...VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES
TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND
BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG H925-H850 JET
RUNNING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS ALOFT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS DOWN
TO THE SFC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS H850
TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN -7 AND -10 C. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT BE REALIZED WILL BE LIGHT AT
BEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH
INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE LAKE
MICHIGAN VICINITY TO START THE PERIOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE LATER TODAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR...BUT PATCHY FROST AND
OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...BUT RH BELOW 30 PERCENT
IF NOT NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A RATHER STEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPART AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS
VALLEY APPROACHES. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW 30 WITH MID 30S OR HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE PLAINS EXPECTED
TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA INITIALLY BY A COLD FRONT ON WED
NIGHT AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
FREEZE WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. ALSO...
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS AND HOW DEEP IT IS...A FEW
FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS
PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
TERMINALS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER NEAR SYM AND
SJS WITH FROPA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-085>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
919 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Focus today remains on the strong winds expected to surge southeast
into our area on the heels of an impressive frontal passage. 999 mb
surface low over Wisconsin is forecast to drop near Cleveland by
late this afternoon. A couple surface fronts will swing through our
area. Latest HRRR and other hi-res models are quite impressive with
mixing down 45 to 50 kt winds across southern Indiana and parts of
northern Kentucky. Upstream currently there have been a few 45 to 50
kt wind reports in southeastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa.
Our forecast target of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, strongest over
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, looks good for now. No
changes to any of the headlines at this point, but certainly parts
of the area will be at the high-end advisory range.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
...Very Windy This Afternoon...
One upper trough pushing through the region this hour will get
replaced by another one moving through the Great Lakes this
afternoon. A deep surface low pressure will be associated with this
feature, providing a tight pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley
as the attendant cold front rushes toward us. Statistical guidance
has some of the highest numbers I`ve seen in awhile, and forecast
soundings easily show the potential for 40-50 mph wind gusts this
afternoon. Latest HRRR has peak gusts in the 40-50 kt range north of
the southern KY parkways starting between 18-19Z through 00Z.
The question mark however is how much the cloud cover moving in with
this front will limit our ability to mix into those higher gusts.
For this update will bump up the gust wording to 50 mph for the
northern advisory area and expand the advisory southward as well as
extend the timing a little into the evening. The southern area
should see winds closer to our advisory threshold of ~40 mph.
Those winds should start tapering off quickly after sunset as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds at first should
keep us from dropping off temperature-wise in the evening, but with
clear skies and calming winds after that as well as drier air in
place, expect temperatures to drop quickly after midnight. Lows
easily should reach the freezing mark for all in the current freeze
watch area and likely a few more counties south of that area.
Louisville downtown/SDF may not hit, but enough of the rest of the
county likely will. Believe there is at least a 50% chance for the
rest of our forecast area to hit that low, as the southwest half
will have the lighter winds earlier, so will go ahead and expand the
freeze watch to include the rest of our counties. Thanks a bunch to
all neighboring forecast offices for extensive collaboration on both
of these headlines!
Sunday, after the cold start, we should recover to temperatures
similar to today`s highs, if not a degree or two warmer, likely the
upper 50s to around 60. Winds will pick up from the southwest late
in the period as another low moves into the Midwest.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Remember the cooler temperatures help to keep the severe weather
threat down! That said, this period contains a couple more chances
for frost/freeze conditions. The first comes behind the cold front
associated with that low mentioned above moving east across
Indiana/Ohio Monday. The front will take its time to clear our
region. Moisture along the front is fairly low, but probably enough
for some light QPF. High pressure will build in from the north
behind this front. Once again, how quickly the winds die down at
night will determine the frost potential, but regardless, another
freeze looks possible over a similar area to the freeze watch issued
yesterday.
That high will shift off to the east Tuesday, ahead of the next low,
this time coming in from the Central Plains. Tuesday will be the
transition day temperature-wise, with highs Wednesday flipping to a
little above normal. We may have some rain Wednesday morning to go
with lower high temperatures. This front will have a little more
moisture to work with, and consequently have gone with higher pops
for Wednesday.
Following this system, the GFS brings in another clipper Thursday,
with precip lingering into Friday as a series of vortmaxes pass over
us. Depending on the exact timing of this precip, we could see somey
light early-April snows. The GEM is a little slower with the
clipper, instead holding it off till Thursday night. A quick model
blend gives chance pops for Thursday and then slight chances
lingering in the east Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016
While VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period,
there will still be impacts to aviation today as very gusty west
winds affect all sites. These westerly winds will increase through
the afternoon hours, sustained around 20-25 knots with gusts of 30-
35+ knots, especially at SDF and LEX. In fact, would not be
surprised to see LEX/SDF gust near 40 knots for an hour or two late
this afternoon. The westerly component of these winds will make for
strong crosswinds on the parallel runways at SDF. There will be
some passing mid/high clouds as well, but any cigs will remain VFR
through the day today.
For tonight, high pressure will rapidly build in behind a cold front
passing through. This will put an end to the gusts while shifting
winds to a more northwesterly direction. Winds will go mainly light
and variable by early Sunday morning as high pressure builds into
the region.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-
078.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM
EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ026-
061>063-070>076-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM
EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TO
BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
...VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL ISSUES
TO DEAL WITH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND
BRING A POTENT AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG H925-H850 JET
RUNNING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS ALOFT. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS DOWN
TO THE SFC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL ALSO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES RECOVER JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS H850
TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN -7 AND -10 C. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT MIGHT BE REALIZED WILL BE LIGHT AT
BEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH
INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE LAKE
MICHIGAN VICINITY TO START THE PERIOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE LATER TODAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR...BUT PATCHY FROST AND
OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...BUT RH BELOW 30 PERCENT
IF NOT NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A RATHER STEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPART AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS
VALLEY APPROACHES. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW 30 WITH MID 30S OR HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE PLAINS EXPECTED
TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA INITIALLY BY A COLD FRONT ON WED
NIGHT AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
FREEZE WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. ALSO...
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS AND HOW DEEP IT IS...A FEW
FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS
PERIOD. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
TERMINALS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER NEAR SYM AND
SJS WITH FROPA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-085>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
...Very Windy This Afternoon...
One upper trough pushing through the region this hour will get
replaced by another one moving through the Great Lakes this
afternoon. A deep surface low pressure will be associated with this
feature, providing a tight pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley
as the attendant cold front rushes toward us. Statistical guidance
has some of the highest numbers I`ve seen in awhile, and forecast
soundings easily show the potential for 40-50 mph wind gusts this
afternoon. Latest HRRR has peak gusts in the 40-50 kt range north of
the southern KY parkways starting between 18-19Z through 00Z.
The question mark however is how much the cloud cover moving in with
this front will limit our ability to mix into those higher gusts.
For this update will bump up the gust wording to 50 mph for the
northern advisory area and expand the advisory southward as well as
extend the timing a little into the evening. The southern area
should see winds closer to our advisory threshold of ~40 mph.
Those winds should start tapering off quickly after sunset as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds at first should
keep us from dropping off temperature-wise in the evening, but with
clear skies and calming winds after that as well as drier air in
place, expect temperatures to drop quickly after midnight. Lows
easily should reach the freezing mark for all in the current freeze
watch area and likely a few more counties south of that area.
Louisville downtown/SDF may not hit, but enough of the rest of the
county likely will. Believe there is at least a 50% chance for the
rest of our forecast area to hit that low, as the southwest half
will have the lighter winds earlier, so will go ahead and expand the
freeze watch to include the rest of our counties. Thanks a bunch to
all neighboring forecast offices for extensive collaboration on both
of these headlines!
Sunday, after the cold start, we should recover to temperatures
similar to today`s highs, if not a degree or two warmer, likely the
upper 50s to around 60. Winds will pick up from the southwest late
in the period as another low moves into the Midwest.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Remember the cooler temperatures help to keep the severe weather
threat down! That said, this period contains a couple more chances
for frost/freeze conditions. The first comes behind the cold front
associated with that low mentioned above moving east across
Indiana/Ohio Monday. The front will take its time to clear our
region. Moisture along the front is fairly low, but probably enough
for some light QPF. High pressure will build in from the north
behind this front. Once again, how quickly the winds die down at
night will determine the frost potential, but regardless, another
freeze looks possible over a similar area to the freeze watch issued
yesterday.
That high will shift off to the east Tuesday, ahead of the next low,
this time coming in from the Central Plains. Tuesday will be the
transition day temperature-wise, with highs Wednesday flipping to a
little above normal. We may have some rain Wednesday morning to go
with lower high temperatures. This front will have a little more
moisture to work with, and consequently have gone with higher pops
for Wednesday.
Following this system, the GFS brings in another clipper Thursday,
with precip lingering into Friday as a series of vortmaxes pass over
us. Depending on the exact timing of this precip, we could see somey
light early-April snows. The GEM is a little slower with the
clipper, instead holding it off till Thursday night. A quick model
blend gives chance pops for Thursday and then slight chances
lingering in the east Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016
While VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period,
there will still be impacts to aviation today as very gusty west
winds affect all sites. These westerly winds will increase through
the afternoon hours, sustained around 20-25 knots with gusts of 30-
35+ knots, especially at SDF and LEX. In fact, would not be
surprised to see LEX/SDF gust near 40 knots for an hour or two late
this afternoon. The westerly component of these winds will make for
strong crosswinds on the parallel runways at SDF. There will be
some passing mid/high clouds as well, but any cigs will remain VFR
through the day today.
For tonight, high pressure will rapidly build in behind a cold front
passing through. This will put an end to the gusts while shifting
winds to a more northwesterly direction. Winds will go mainly light
and variable by early Sunday morning as high pressure builds into
the region.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-
078.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM
EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ026-
061>063-070>076-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM
EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
WEEKEND AND BRING A RETURN TO WINTER WEATHER. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE I-96
CORRIDOR. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94
AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES
IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM
HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW
BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT
HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW
IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB
TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW
FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN
OUR FORECAST.
THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE
REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIESAT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND
TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH.
FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD
ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE
LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S
TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE
ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN
US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO
DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDEOFFS. SOUTH OF THERE
MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA
AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT.
SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM
BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
SECOND CLIPPER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL).
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN
OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING
TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE
OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR
SIGNIFICANT THURS/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL SUN...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDAY HOURS (16Z-19Z). SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST AS WILL LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SNOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS KICK UP INTO
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. KAZO AND KBTL WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 30 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE
REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER
AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ064-071>074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-065>067.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
632 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.AVIATION...
CHAOTIC SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AS
OF 10Z AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
TO MBS AND FNT AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS PTK. WITH THE CENTER OF
THE LOW PASSING NEAR PTK...IT MAY KEEP ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX. THE DETROIT TERMINALS LOOK TO STAY ALL RAIN THROUGH MOST
OF DAY...ATTEMPTING TO CHANGE OVER LATER IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DETROIT TERMINALS BEING
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CURRENT GUSTS UPSTREAM
ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE AND WITH THE STORM STRENGTHENING AS
IT DROPS THROUGH MI...WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST WINDS THAT STRONG OVER
THE DETROIT METRO TERMINALS AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
TO IFR WITH THE AREA OF SNOW/RAIN BUT WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM AFTER ABOUT 02Z.
FOR DTW...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY CHANGE OVER SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LARGE IMPACTS AT METRO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO BOTH STRONG CROSS WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN PRECIP TYPE BEING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* HIGH IN W-NW WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 421 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTION PACKED WEEKEND IN FRONT OF US WITH TWO SUCCESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WAVELENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS SET TO SWING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE SECOND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
DESPITE BEING SMALLER IN STATURE...ALL SIGNS POINT TO EACH OF THE
SYSTEMS PACKING THEIR OWN PUNCH.
VERY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG LOW DEEPENING
RATES...IS CURRENTLY DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
POSITIONING WITH A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO THE VICINITY OF
DULUTH...MN AS OF 0700Z. MODELS SUPPORT THE CRUX OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND IMPINGEMENT OF LEAD LEFT EXIT JET SURGE TO THE
BORDER REGION OF MI/IN/OH ALREADY BY 18Z WHICH IS NOW SLIGHTLY AHEAD
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. THIS PRESENTS A LITTLE BIT OF A CONUNDRUM
BECAUSE AT THIS SAME TIME...THE PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION WANTS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY...MORE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DTX CWA. THE END RESULT IS A LITTLE MORE OF
A DIFFUSE LOW CENTER...WITH A MORE SHARP/TIGHT/COMPACT MSLP GRADIENT
ON A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL FAVOR THE MORE FAVORABLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER OR STING JET REGION...SAY RIGHT THROUGH
THE DETROIT AREA.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TODAY HAS TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN...1. THE
HIGH END WIND POTENTIAL FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AND THE SHORELINE AREAS ALONG THE THUMB THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE ONSHORE FLOW....2. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION
RATES IN SNOWFALL FROM THE DETROIT SUBURBS NORTHWARD...BUT PRIMARILY
SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS.
A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS TO CONVEY ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WITH THE
IDEA OF A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW CENTER...THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL
FORCING SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE ON THE IMMEDIATE
BACKSIDE OF THE SHARP SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF
ISALLOBARIC AND GRADIENT WIND COMPONENTS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN
HIRES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS THAT A LOW TOPPED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE COULD IGNITE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SEGMENT OF
THE LINE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES
BETWEEN 21-00Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THIS
ASCENT/SUBSIDENCE DELINEATION THAT WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. FOR THIS REASON ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-03Z.
THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE SHORELINE AREAS
OF TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
WITH REDUCED FRICTION FLOW COULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH.
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT (SEE BELOW)...WILL INCLUDE
A BREAKOUT IN THE WSW TO BULLET POINT THIS HIGHER WIND THREAT FOR
THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
THE OTHER HUGE DISCUSSION POINTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS ON
PRECIPITATION RATES...TYPE...AND AMOUNTS. THE EASY SUBJECT IS
PRECIPITATION RATES AND TYPE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SOUNDING THAT IS PRACTICALLY ON ITS
SIDE WITH VERY STEEP AND SATURATED LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO
THE TROPOPAUSE/OR 18 KFT AGL. WITH THE VERY LOW STATIC STABILITY TO
EVEN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MODELS SUPPORTING FREEZING HEIGHTS AT LESS
THAN 1 KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET...ALL
AREAS SHOULD WITNESS SNOWFLAKES OUT OF THE HIGHEST RATES.
OVERWHELMINGLY THE MORE DIFFICULT TOPIC IS AMOUNTS. THE DISCUSSION
FROM YESTERDAY HIGHLIGHTED A COUPLE OF REASONS THAT ACCUMULATION
EFFICIENCY MAY BE COMPROMISED...WET/MILD GROUND CONDITIONS AND
AFTERNOON INSOLATION EFFECTS. ANOTHER NEGATIVE HAS APPEARED IN THE
FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE MORE
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OF A DEGREE OR TWO IS WREAKING COMPLETE HAVOC
ON BOTH THE MODEL PTYPE ALGORITHMS AND THE LOCAL SNOW RATIO TOOL.
COULD GO BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATES OF 1
INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER AND FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS...THE DECISION
WAS TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/ST CLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD. IN SHORT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH 2
OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN 3 HOURS. THE RAP AND SOME OF THE HIRES
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ON A MINI/PSEUDO
TROWAL AXIS SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS (19-
01Z). ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA/NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION/DEFORMATION
AXIS.
NO SURPRISES IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH REGARDS TO THE SECOND
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SEEMED TO
CONGEAL ONTO THE IDEA OF AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
DETROIT METRO WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ROCKING JUST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM NOSE AWAY
..LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE OR FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE THAT STILL EXISTS IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH THE ECMWF
STILL VERY WELL TEMPERED IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ENOUGH SO THAT IT WAS
A FAIRLY EASY DECISION TO FORGO ANY WINTER STORM WATCH
CONSIDERATIONS. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST IS STILL SIDED HEAVILY
TOWARD A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY SOLUTION WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 PRIMARILY 18Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL EXIST BUT POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FOR THE TERRAIN.
MARINE...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WITH THIS LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORM REACHES THE EASTERN
LAKES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GALES WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST WINDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD...TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE STORM. THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY ALSO SEE FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PEAKS. THIS
STORM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL FEATURE
AN UPTICK IN WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WHILE BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING RAIN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ABOUT M-59 AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL AGAIN TARGET LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF
M-59 WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE METRO
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REACH NEAR A HALF INCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MAY RESULT IN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND THE I-69
CORRIDOR.
WITH THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY SWOLLEN AND SOILS
SATURATED...ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THIS NEW PRECIPITATION FALLING
OVER THE REGION. HELPING MITIGATE SOME ISSUES WILL BE THE FACT IT IS
FALLING OVER THE COURSE OF AROUND 36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
WILL ALSO HELP BY HOLDING MOISTURE AND SLOWLY RELEASING IT AS IT
MELTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-
422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
620 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Main concerns today will be windy conditions and elevated fire
conditions. For the fire concerns...see the fire weather section
below.
A shortwave trough will drop out of Canada into the western Great
Lakes today. Its associated surface low will help tighten up the
pressure gradient across Missouri and Illinois today which will
cause very windy conditions. Expect mainly sunny conditions in
addition to the forecast soundings showing deep mixing up to 800mb,
so there should be gusts on top of the already strong sustained
winds. Will need to expand the advisory westward to included some
Missouri counties including the St. Louis metro area based on the
newest MOS guidance and mixing down RAP winds.
Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front
causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection. Highs
are close to a a mix of GFS/NAM MOS temperature guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
(Tonight through Monday)
Have gone with a freeze warning for tonight over parts of west
central and south central Illinois. Upper trough and associated low
pressure will move quickly east this evening and surface ridge will
move across area overnight. With clear skies and there being a
period of light winds, still expect areas of frost to develop. Not
sure however how widespread the frost will be as the ridge will move
off to the east by 12Z, and winds will already turn out of the south
which may inhibit some frost formation. However, still expect lows
to reach 32 or lower over west central and south central Illinois by
late tonight, so went ahead and issued a freeze warning in these
areas.
Still looks Sunday will be much warmer as winds will turn out of the
southwest ahead of this next cold front which move through the area
on Sunday night. With mixing up into the 900-800mb layer and plenty
of sunshine, still expect highs to range from the lower 60`s from
south central Illinois to the lower 70`s over northeast and central
Missouri. Both the NAM/GFS show that cold front passing through the
area on Sunday night with closer to normal temperatures on Monday.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Not much change to going forecast as the upper flow becomes more
amplified during the period. Trough over the northern Plains on
Tuesday will dig southeastward and become a deep trough over the
eastern CONUS by Thursday with large ridge over the west. In the
meantime, it still appears that the GFS/ECMWF are in decent
agreement that the trough and its attendant cold front will pass
through Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday, so will continue with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Chance of
showers will linger into Wednesday night before turning dry late in
the week.
Tuesday will be relatively cool in the southeast flow from the
receding surface high before we get warmer ahead of the cold front
on Wednesday. Then temperatures will begin to cool off again
underneath the upper trough.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
VFR through the period with gusty west to northwest winds. Wind
gusts will approach 40kts during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Winds will subside after sunset. A surface ridge
will then move across the region tonight, causing a period of
lgt/var winds followed by a shift to southerly winds late in the
TAF period.
Kanofsky
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
We will have an elevated fire danger both today and on Sunday for
low relative humidity values...dry fuels and windy conditions.
Forecast fuels are expected to be in the 9-10 percent range today
which is what they fell to yesterday according to the RAWS
observations. Relative humidity values are expected to fall into
the 25-30 percent range across all but south central Illinois
today and tomorrow. Winds are expected to be out of the west
between 10 and 25 mph with higher gusts today. They are expected
to be out of the southwest tomorrow between 10 and 20 mph.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis
MO.
IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette
IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-
Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
STILL HAVE SOME STREAMERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH
KPKD AND KSAZ REPORTING FLURRIES. THINK THESE FLURRIES SHOULD EXIT
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE ARE ALSO
SOME FLURRIES BEING REPORTED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND
AND NORTH OF KDVL. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...IF THEY STAY
CONSISTENT MAY HAVE TO ADD A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH A LATER
UPDATE. OTHERWISE STILL EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND A COOLER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE
SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING
SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT
OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO
WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z.
FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING
AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY.
THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT
TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S
FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS
SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT
WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL
LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE
PROLONGED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS
STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY
12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES
IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV
FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER
TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
MOSTLY A SCATTERED STRATOCU FIELD IN THE RRV AND FAR NW MN. BKN-
OVC MVFR STRATOCU LAKE OF THE WOODS THRU BEMIDJI AND INTO PARTS
OF WCNTRL MN. THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THIS MORNING.
AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH QUICKLY TOWARD DVL BASIN AND
THESE MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST TODAY SO THAT OUTSIDE OF THIS
MORNING CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN VFR (ALTOCU) RANGE.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
TEMPS COOLING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER FCST IN MANY AREAS....BUT
STILL TRENDED THE TEMPS THE SAME WITH HIGHS MID 20S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES AROUND
WITH STRATOCU PATCHES IN WCNTRL MN BUT THEY ARE EXITING QUICKLY.
OVERALL NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE
SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING
SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT
OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER
ADVSIORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO
WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z.
FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING
AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY.
THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT
TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S
FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS
SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT
WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL
LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE
PROLONGUED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS
STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY
12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES
IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV
FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER
TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
MOSTLY A SCATTERED STRATOCU FIELD IN THE RRV AND FAR NW MN. BKN-
OVC MVFR STRATOCU LAKE OF THE WOODS THRU BEMIDJI AND INTO PARTS
OF WCNTRL MN. THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THIS MORNING.
AREA OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH QUICKLY TOWARD DVL BASIN AND
THESE MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST TODAY SO THAT OUTSIDE OF THIS
MORNING CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN VFR (ALTOCU) RANGE.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUING TO WATCH WIND POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY. MAY NEED TO
UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM HANCOCK TO KNOX TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS AND HRRR AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH MAY CLIP THAT PART OF THE AREA. THIS IS FOR GUSTS OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION LATER TOO WOULD HAVE SIMILAR
POTENTIAL. NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER/SNOW HEADLINES.
DID TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND EVENTUAL HIGHS FOR TODAY...BUT NOT BY
MUCH...WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.
ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SPRINKLE/SHOWER/FLURRY MAINLY
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA EARLY.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT DRIVEN BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING
INTO OHIO. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS ALOFT...SURFACE
CONVERGENCE... PRESSURE FALLS/RISE... AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
MAKE FOR STRONG UPWARD MOTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST OHIO. ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST OHIO/NORTHWEST PA STARTING THIS EVENING. MENTIONED
THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH I SUPPOSE IT REALLY IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT WILL
GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT A MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW WILL HAPPEN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST PA FOR TONIGHT WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. I DOUBT WE WILL
MAKE SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND
IN THE CITY OF ERIE (2-3 INCHES LIKELY) BUT THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND HEAVIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE FOR A NASTY EVENING. SOUTH OF I-90 IN THE HILLS OF
NORTHWEST PA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
BLOWING SNOW WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH EXCEPT 1-3 INCHES IN
THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NORTHEAST OH. EVEN IF THE SNOW DOES NOT
ADD UP TO MUCH... THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR
AN UNPLEASANT REMINDER OF WINTER IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
UNTIL 4 AM ALTHOUGH THE WIND MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN THAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON
AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S TONIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH THE
GROUND IS WARM...A LITTLE SNOW/ICE/SLUSH IS POSSIBLE ON ROADS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE SNOWBELT.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BREAK WILL
BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY
EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA LATER ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT OF THE
EXACT TRACK. THE SYSTEM SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN
TODAYS LOW...AND IT WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THERE IS
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAT WE SHOULD SEE A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW
SEEMS UNLIKELY...EVEN WITH A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S...PERHAPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC WITH WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 TO -15C BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
GFS IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT AND DID LOWER
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONS
BACK TO ALL SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR MOST OF NE
OHIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST UP THE LAKESHORE TOWARDS ERI WITH CEILINGS ACROSS NE OH/NW
PA IN THE 2500-3500 FOOT RANGE. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR IN MOST AREAS
AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
THE FRONT WILL REACH TOL/FDY AROUND 17Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 35-40 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL REACH CLE TOWARDS 19Z AND YNG BY 21Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT THE EASTERN SITES MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NW AFTER 00Z. ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
SEE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS AT SOME POINT. PRECIPITATION WILL END
QUICKLY AFTER THE TRANSITION TO SNOW AT THE WESTERN SITES WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AT CLE/YNG/ERI.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY
THEN RETURN ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMING
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ON THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL APPROACH 40 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. IT WILL BE A FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED EVENT AS GALES ONLY EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY
GIVEN POINT ON THE LAKE BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE. WAVES ON THE
CENTRAL AND EAST HALF OF THE LAKE WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET. GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WHOLE LAKE...STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN BASIN AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE EAST END. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE LAKE.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AND WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HOWEVER BE NEEDED
AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CAUSES WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LEZ142>145-162>165.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY FOR MARATHON
CO...LINCOLN CO...AND ONEIDA CO. AS SNOW HAS DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
THERE. LEFT ADVISORY FOR VILAS CO ALONE DUE SINCE VSBYS HAVE BEEN
DOWN TO ZERO AT IWD AND LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES AT OBS SITES
WITHIN VILAS COUNTY.
PREVIOUS UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
AREA OF SNOW IS STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN
EARLIER FORECAST...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS AND POPS.
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT SO FOLLOWED IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS TWO CLIPPERS
TO IMPACT NE WI WITHIN 36 HOURS OF ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR TODAY IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS CLIPPER #1 IS QUITE
STRONG...BUT IS ALSO A FAST-MOVER. CLIPPER #2 IS NOT AS STRONG...
BUT DOES HAVE A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH CLIPPER #2 IS THAT A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT WILL NEED
TO BE SORTED OUT.
THE 08Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED CLIPPER #1 PASSING JUST SW OF
DLH...MAKE A BEELINE FOR CENTRAL WI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALREADY INTO NW WI HEADED IN OUR
DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI
E-SE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS A POTENT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF
DYNAMICS INVOLVED TO PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. THERE IS STRONG LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE
MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE A STEADY SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY 10Z TO 17Z WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. EASTERN WI WOULD SEE THE SNOW FLY FROM
ROUGHLY 13Z TO 20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS
WOULD SUGGEST A BROAD 2-3" TOTAL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/PARTS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE SNOW RATIOS ARE HIGHER (A
FEW 4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO REV UP. WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WI THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS SKIES TEMPORARILY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD NE WI LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF CLIPPER #2 WHICH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW COULD ALREADY BE
APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND HOW
FAST CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT READINGS TO DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE
RANGE NORTH...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.
THIS SECOND CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN WI ON
SUNDAY...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NOT LIFT ANY FARTHER
NORTH THAN SOUTHERN WI. MODELS SHOW A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
TO EXIST OVER WI WITH 8H TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10C ALONG THE
UPPER MI BORDER...TO +8C OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NE
WI WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING COULD THERE BE ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL NORTH? SINCE THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH...THERE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO COMPLETELY CHANGE ALL THE SNOW TO RAIN...
EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI (SOUTH OF A MFI-OSH LINE).
OTHERWISE...THIS IS GOING TO BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN
WI WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER HUDSON
BAY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO YANK QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT NIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME TOO
WARM DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY IS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE CLIPPERS SWEEPS
IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
CLIPPER LOW TO EXIT WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING A BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DURING THE
MORNING...RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND QUICKLY BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE (HIGHER VALUES
THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO). A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF CLEARING TREND AND DIMINISHED WINDS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO NE
WI. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WI...WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WI. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
AREA OF SNOW IS STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN
EARLIER FORECAST...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS AND POPS.
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT SO FOLLOWED IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS TWO CLIPPERS
TO IMPACT NE WI WITHIN 36 HOURS OF ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR TODAY IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS CLIPPER #1 IS QUITE
STRONG...BUT IS ALSO A FAST-MOVER. CLIPPER #2 IS NOT AS STRONG...
BUT DOES HAVE A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH CLIPPER #2 IS THAT A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT WILL NEED
TO BE SORTED OUT.
THE 08Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED CLIPPER #1 PASSING JUST SW OF
DLH...MAKE A BEELINE FOR CENTRAL WI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALREADY INTO NW WI HEADED IN OUR
DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI
E-SE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS A POTENT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF
DYNAMICS INVOLVED TO PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. THERE IS STRONG LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE
MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE A STEADY SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY 10Z TO 17Z WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. EASTERN WI WOULD SEE THE SNOW FLY FROM
ROUGHLY 13Z TO 20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS
WOULD SUGGEST A BROAD 2-3" TOTAL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/PARTS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE SNOW RATIOS ARE HIGHER (A
FEW 4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO REV UP. WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WI THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS SKIES TEMPORARILY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD NE WI LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF CLIPPER #2 WHICH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW COULD ALREADY BE
APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND HOW
FAST CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT READINGS TO DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE
RANGE NORTH...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.
THIS SECOND CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN WI ON
SUNDAY...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NOT LIFT ANY FARTHER
NORTH THAN SOUTHERN WI. MODELS SHOW A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
TO EXIST OVER WI WITH 8H TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10C ALONG THE
UPPER MI BORDER...TO +8C OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NE
WI WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING COULD THERE BE ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL NORTH? SINCE THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH...THERE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO COMPLETELY CHANGE ALL THE SNOW TO RAIN...
EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI (SOUTH OF A MFI-OSH LINE).
OTHERWISE...THIS IS GOING TO BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN
WI WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER HUDSON
BAY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO YANK QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT NIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME TOO
WARM DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY IS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE CLIPPERS SWEEPS
IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
CLIPPER LOW TO EXIT WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE
BRINGING A BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DURING THE
MORNING...RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND QUICKLY BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE (HIGHER VALUES
THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO). A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF CLEARING TREND AND DIMINISHED WINDS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO NE
WI. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WI...WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WI. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ010-
018-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........RDM
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
BASED ON CURRENT WINDS AND STORM REPORTS...THE HIGH END WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL ITS CURRENT 21Z EXPIRATION.
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS INTO THE LOW 50S
CONTINUES AT MIDDAY...WITH REPORTS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST SURGE
HAS SHIFTED INTO NW IL ALONG THE AXIS OF TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGE GRADIENT. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE
THOUSANDS THE QUAD CITIES METRO AND A FEW OTHER MOSTLY MINOR WIND
DAMAGE STORM REPORTS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS NORTHEASTERN MN ATTM...WITH A
WESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SD. TO THE SOUTH OF
IT SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW WAS INCREASING PRODUCING TEMP RISES ACRS THE
MO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IA. TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ALL
AROUND THE WAVE ACRS THE MIDWEST DRIVING STRONG SFC WIND FIELDS ACRS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY EVEN AT THIS TIME OF
DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACRS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT OR JUST A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES ACRS NORTHERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WALK THE SOUTHERN WING OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH FAST SPEED/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF IT TAKING IT
MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY
THE CLIPPER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE
BATTLING DRY AIR AND MUCH OF IT MAY BE JUST FLURRIES. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST RAP RUNS...THE PRIME SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH 14Z...THEN DROP TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN IL/INDIANA THROUGH MIDDAY IN A VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTRD SNOW
SHOWERS FROM 12Z-16Z IN FAR NORTHWESTERN IL. THE LATER THEY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE THEY WILL TURN INTO A RAIN-SNOW MIX.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL. MORE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT MAY CLIP STEPHENSON COUNTY OR EVEN EXTREME
NORTHEAST BUREAU.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DEEP MIXING
PROFILES AND SPEED OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THAT WILL BE IN THE
PRIME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDOW THIS MORNING THOUGH MIDDAY
COULD DRIVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR EVEN CLOSE TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA. A SOLID TO
HIGHER END WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THESE PRIME AREAS
IN THE MAX LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT/ISALLOBARIC SURGE REGION...AND
WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BUT THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE WIND
ADVISORY SCALE. QUICKLY ARRIVING LLVL RIDGE LOBE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WILL BRING AROUND A WIND DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEEP MIXING UP OVER H85 MB...INCOMING COLD
VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME
OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY HIT 50.
TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS UNDER PASSING RIDGE AND FRESHLY SHUTTLED IN
CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I80 IN THE HWO. LUCKILY IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE
SEASON EVEN FOR THESE AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST WITH AN H85-H7 MB INVERSION BUILDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS
THERE COULD BE SFC TEMP IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEFORE
DAWN WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW INCREASING. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
BREEZY AND WARM END TO THE WEEKEND... THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.
SUN-SUN NGT... CLIPPER LOW TO PASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VLY BY 12Z MON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20
TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING WITH AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION AND
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FOR WARM
READINGS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY FOR TALL GRASSES. AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING IT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE PM
THEN MIGRATING INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. COULD POSSIBLY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION
EARLY EVENING ALONG/N OF I-80 IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE 0-2
KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY NAM/GFS. HOWEVER... BOTH COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE QUALITY WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AS AMERICAN MODELS HIGHER ON SFC DEWPTS AND MAY BE
OVERDONE WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND VEERED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRE-FRONTAL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE
HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. RETURN OF COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30/L
30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.
MON-MON NGT... DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER WITH
NORTHEAST LAKE FETCH... WHILE MID 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION. MONDAY NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S BUT... THE LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND COULD BE
A BIT MILDER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS
HIGH DEPARTS LATER AT NIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THICKENING HIGHER
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
TUE-WED... STRENGTHENING SIGNAL FOR WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FORCING
FROM DIGGING STRONG PV ANOMALY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VLY.
WHILE SOME PRECIP LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TUE...
THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE TUE EVE INTO EARLY WED WITH JUXTAPOSITION
OF GREATEST LIFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO
OVER 1 INCH BUT DURATION OF BEST FORCING ONLY 6 HR PERIOD OR SO...
THUS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST ALTHOUGH ISOLD HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGS OR IN
THE 50S MANY AREAS TUE-WED DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT.
THU-FRI...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE MAINLY DRY DUE TO DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TYPICAL CHALLENGES OF TIMING PERTURBATIONS. HIGHS MAINLY 50S AND
LOWS MAINLY 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BRIEF NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 19Z...ESPECIALLY AT MLI. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT NW AND THEN VARIABLE AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES THROUGH. DRY AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY
AT LEAST FROM 15 TO 25 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH RED
FLAG WARNING...WIND ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING. WE WILL BEGIN
WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. AS NOTED EARLIER TODAY IT WAS
GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL IN MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SO FAR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT OBSERVED SO
FAR TODAY. IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL MEET
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.
HOWEVER WITH WINDS MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN PLACE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUE AT THIS
TIME.
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. BASED ON THE KENTUCKY
MESONET AND ASOS SITES PEAK GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 30 TO 40 MPH
SO FAR...WITH A GUST OF 42 MPH RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE LEXINGTON
ASOS AND A 42 MPH GUST AT THE OWEN COUNTY MESONET. WHILE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING GUSTS OF 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
FINALLY...THE FREEZE WARNING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WELL.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT
SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH
INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE LAKE
MICHIGAN VICINITY TO START THE PERIOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD...PRECEDED BY THE SFC LOW TRACKING
TO OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE LATER TODAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PRECEDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR...BUT PATCHY FROST AND
OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...BUT RH BELOW 30 PERCENT
IF NOT NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A RATHER STEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPART AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS
VALLEY APPROACHES. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW 30 WITH MID 30S OR HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE PLAINS EXPECTED
TO CARVE OUT AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA INITIALLY BY A COLD FRONT ON WED
NIGHT AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
FREEZE WILL BE A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. ALSO...
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS AND HOW DEEP IT IS...A FEW
FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
EVEN THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD...STRONG WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 20Z. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN 35 TO 40 KNOT GUSTS
FROM 20Z INTO THE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. A BRIEF STRAY LIGHT SHOWER WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR SJS AND SYM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS VERY
UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ069-080-
085>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SBH
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
...Strong Winds Through Early Evening Then Hard Freeze Tonight...
The forecast in the short term is focused on the strong winds
through early this evening, followed by the expected hard freeze for
many areas tonight.
As of mid afternoon, 997 mb surface low was analyzed across
southwest Michigan with its fronts across central Indiana and
Illinois. A secondary front was back across southeastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois.
Wind gusts have been ramping up as expected with maximum heating and
boundary layer mixing. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range have been
reported and upstream observations show 40 to 50 mph gusts. This
swath of strong winds will push into the area, initially out of the
southwest then changing to the west until the second front passes at
which winds will become more northwesterly. The strongest winds with
gusts potentially near 50 mph will be found across southeastern
Indiana and northern Kentucky.
After sunset and as high pressure builds in from the west, winds
will subside as a much cooler and drier air mass settles into the
area. The boundary layer won`t completely decouple until very late
in the night, which may keep temperatures from bottoming out
quickly. Nonetheless, 02.12z guidance came in colder, and as a
result, forecast lows were nudged down a few degrees.
The coldest readings and most likely areas for an extended freeze is
across the northern Bluegrass and southern Indiana, though sheltered
and typical cold spots across all areas could see readings dip into
the upper 20s. Urban areas may only drop to 30 to 32 degrees.
The Freeze Warning has been expanded to cover the entire area,
replacing the Freeze Watch for the southwestern parts of the
forecast area.
Sunday - Sunday Night
Surface high pressure quickly moves to the southeast US while yet
another surface low tracks from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great
Lakes. This system won`t be as a strong and pressure gradient ahead
of it not as impressive. We`ll see light winds in the morning become
steady from the south. Some afternoon gusts to 30 mph will be
possible. Highs 55 to 60 with sunny skies.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
The forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
Monday followed by the chance for a frost/freeze Tuesday morning,
then potentially more cold air for later next week.
The aforementioned surface low will drag a cold front through the
area early Monday morning. It`s moisture limited but there could be
enough saturation for light rain showers mainly east of I-65 during
the morning hours. The afternoon should see more clearing as high
pressure builds in from the north.
Monday night into Tuesday morning could be another freeze situation
that needs to be monitored. Forecast lows at this time look to be in
the 30 to 35 range. Areas along/north of the KY parkways would stand
the greatest chance at this point for readings to drop below 32.
02.12z guidance continued previous model cycles showing a surface
low and cold front impacting the area on Wednesday. Southerly flow
moisture transport return ahead of it is noticeable with decent
forcing for ascent as the system comes in during the day. Some
instability as well, so will introduce the chance of thunderstorms.
A model consensus of high POPs /70 percent/ looks good at this
point.
Beyond that system, forecast guidance continues to suggest we`ll see
a deep trough develop over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS.
Unseasonably cold air could spell for more hard freezes for our
area. At this point, daily readings may trend 10 to 15 degrees below
normal Thursday through Saturday. A model consensus has highs in the
low to mid 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Agricultural
interests will need to monitor these days closely as we may see
several morning where a frost to hard freeze possible.
In addition, cyclonic flow with some embedded shortwaves pivoting
through will bring small chances for light showers. Depending on
when these waves pass through, rain showers mixing with some snow
are possible Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016
Strong surface low pressure over southeastern Lake Michigan at this
time continues to create strong surface winds around it. Current
wind gusts are up to 30 kts from the west-southwest over central KY,
with gusts of 40-50 kts from the west-northwest (behind the trailing
cold front) over parts of central Illinois. As the surface low moves
east this afternoon and evening, the front will move through central
KY and wind speeds/gusts should increase as well with gusts up to 40
kts at SDF and LEX (not as high as to our north), and up to 30 kts
at BWG. There will be scattered clouds around 5 kft with brief
ceilings possible late afternoon/early evening at LEX around 5-6 kft
(still VFR).
For tonight, the low pulls out rapidly as surface high pressure
builds in quickly causing a fast drop off in winds after dark. By
early Sunday morning, winds should be mainly light and variable as
surface temperatures fall below freezing. On Sunday, VFR conditions
continue with a mainly clear sky and winds becoming southwest during
the day at 10-15 kts.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........TWF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
...Strong Winds Through Early Evening Then Hard Freeze Tonight...
The forecast in the short term is focused on the strong winds
through early this evening, followed by the expected hard freeze for
many areas tonight.
As of mid afternoon, 997 mb surface low was analyzed across
southwest Michigan with its fronts across central Indiana and
Illinois. A secondary front was back across southeastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois.
Wind gusts have been ramping up as expected with maximum heating and
boundary layer mixing. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range have been
reported and upstream observations show 40 to 50 mph gusts. This
swath of strong winds will push into the area, initially out of the
southwest then changing to the west until the second front passes at
which winds will become more northwesterly. The strongest winds with
gusts potentially near 50 mph will be found across southeastern
Indiana and northern Kentucky.
After sunset and as high pressure builds in from the west, winds
will subside as a much cooler and drier air mass settles into the
area. The boundary layer won`t completely decouple until very late
in the night, which may keep temperatures from bottoming out
quickly. Nonetheless, 02.12z guidance came in colder, and as a
result, forecast lows were nudged down a few degrees.
The coldest readings and most likely areas for an extended freeze is
across the northern Bluegrass and southern Indiana, though sheltered
and typical cold spots across all areas could see readings dip into
the upper 20s. Urban areas may only drop to 30 to 32 degrees.
The Freeze Warning has been expanded to cover the entire area,
replacing the Freeze Watch for the southwestern parts of the
forecast area.
Sunday - Sunday Night
Surface high pressure quickly moves to the southeast US while yet
another surface low tracks from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great
Lakes. This system won`t be as a strong and pressure gradient ahead
of it not as impressive. We`ll see light winds in the morning become
steady from the south. Some afternoon gusts to 30 mph will be
possible. Highs 55 to 60 with sunny skies.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
The forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
Monday followed by the chance for a frost/freeze Tuesday morning,
then potentially more cold air for later next week.
The aforementioned surface low will drag a cold front through the
area early Monday morning. It`s moisture limited but there could be
enough saturation for light rain showers mainly east of I-65 during
the morning hours. The afternoon should see more clearing as high
pressure builds in from the north.
Monday night into Tuesday morning could be another freeze situation
that needs to be monitored. Forecast lows at this time look to be in
the 30 to 35 range. Areas along/north of the KY parkways would stand
the greatest chance at this point for readings to drop below 32.
02.12z guidance continued previous model cycles showing a surface
low and cold front impacting the area on Wednesday. Southerly flow
moisture transport return ahead of it is noticeable with decent
forcing for ascent as the system comes in during the day. Some
instability as well, so will introduce the chance of thunderstorms.
A model consensus of high POPs /70 percent/ looks good at this
point.
Beyond that system, forecast guidance continues to suggest we`ll see
a deep trough develop over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS.
Unseasonably cold air could spell for more hard freezes for our
area. At this point, daily readings may trend 10 to 15 degrees below
normal Thursday through Saturday. A model consensus has highs in the
low to mid 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Agricultural
interests will need to monitor these days closely as we may see
several morning where a frost to hard freeze possible.
In addition, cyclonic flow with some embedded shortwaves pivoting
through will bring small chances for light showers. Depending on
when these waves pass through, rain showers mixing with some snow
are possible Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016
Strong surface low pressure over southeastern Lake Michigan at this
time continues to create strong surface winds around it. Current
wind gusts are up to 30 kts from the west-southwest over central KY,
with gusts of 40-50 kts from the west-northwest (behind the trailing
cold front) over parts of central Illinois. As the surface low moves
east this afternoon and evening, the front will move through central
KY and wind speeds/gusts should increase as well with gusts up to 40
kts at SDF and LEX (not as high as to our north), and up to 30 kts
at BWG. There will be scattered clouds around 5 kft with brief
ceilings possible late afternoon/early evening at LEX around 5-6 kft
(still VFR).
For tonight, the low pulls out rapidly as surface high pressure
builds in quickly causing a fast drop off in winds after dark. By
early Sunday morning, winds should be mainly light and variable as
surface temperatures fall below freezing. On Sunday, VFR conditions
continue with a mainly clear sky and winds becoming southwest during
the day at 10-15 kts.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........TWF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
146 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Upstream observations continue to be quite impressive with several
sites gusting 50 to 60 mph across eastern Iowa into Illinois. HRRR
and RAP continue to suggest we`ll potentially mix down 45 to 50 kt
winds across southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky from mid
afternoon to very early this evening. As a result, confidence in
some higher gusts has increased...and we`ll go with some 50-55 mph
gust wording for our very far north/northeast areas. Other locations
(rest of the area) should still see 40 to 50 mph wind gusts.
Issued at 914 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Focus today remains on the strong winds expected to surge southeast
into our area on the heels of an impressive frontal passage. 999 mb
surface low over Wisconsin is forecast to drop near Cleveland by
late this afternoon. A couple surface fronts will swing through our
area. Latest HRRR and other hi-res models are quite impressive with
mixing down 45 to 50 kt winds across southern Indiana and parts of
northern Kentucky. Upstream currently there have been a few 45 to 50
kt wind reports in southeastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa.
Our forecast target of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, strongest over
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, looks good for now. No
changes to any of the headlines at this point, but certainly parts
of the area will be at the high-end advisory range.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
...Very Windy This Afternoon...
One upper trough pushing through the region this hour will get
replaced by another one moving through the Great Lakes this
afternoon. A deep surface low pressure will be associated with this
feature, providing a tight pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley
as the attendant cold front rushes toward us. Statistical guidance
has some of the highest numbers I`ve seen in awhile, and forecast
soundings easily show the potential for 40-50 mph wind gusts this
afternoon. Latest HRRR has peak gusts in the 40-50 kt range north of
the southern KY parkways starting between 18-19Z through 00Z.
The question mark however is how much the cloud cover moving in with
this front will limit our ability to mix into those higher gusts.
For this update will bump up the gust wording to 50 mph for the
northern advisory area and expand the advisory southward as well as
extend the timing a little into the evening. The southern area
should see winds closer to our advisory threshold of ~40 mph.
Those winds should start tapering off quickly after sunset as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds at first should
keep us from dropping off temperature-wise in the evening, but with
clear skies and calming winds after that as well as drier air in
place, expect temperatures to drop quickly after midnight. Lows
easily should reach the freezing mark for all in the current freeze
watch area and likely a few more counties south of that area.
Louisville downtown/SDF may not hit, but enough of the rest of the
county likely will. Believe there is at least a 50% chance for the
rest of our forecast area to hit that low, as the southwest half
will have the lighter winds earlier, so will go ahead and expand the
freeze watch to include the rest of our counties. Thanks a bunch to
all neighboring forecast offices for extensive collaboration on both
of these headlines!
Sunday, after the cold start, we should recover to temperatures
similar to today`s highs, if not a degree or two warmer, likely the
upper 50s to around 60. Winds will pick up from the southwest late
in the period as another low moves into the Midwest.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Remember the cooler temperatures help to keep the severe weather
threat down! That said, this period contains a couple more chances
for frost/freeze conditions. The first comes behind the cold front
associated with that low mentioned above moving east across
Indiana/Ohio Monday. The front will take its time to clear our
region. Moisture along the front is fairly low, but probably enough
for some light QPF. High pressure will build in from the north
behind this front. Once again, how quickly the winds die down at
night will determine the frost potential, but regardless, another
freeze looks possible over a similar area to the freeze watch issued
yesterday.
That high will shift off to the east Tuesday, ahead of the next low,
this time coming in from the Central Plains. Tuesday will be the
transition day temperature-wise, with highs Wednesday flipping to a
little above normal. We may have some rain Wednesday morning to go
with lower high temperatures. This front will have a little more
moisture to work with, and consequently have gone with higher pops
for Wednesday.
Following this system, the GFS brings in another clipper Thursday,
with precip lingering into Friday as a series of vortmaxes pass over
us. Depending on the exact timing of this precip, we could see somey
light early-April snows. The GEM is a little slower with the
clipper, instead holding it off till Thursday night. A quick model
blend gives chance pops for Thursday and then slight chances
lingering in the east Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2016
Strong surface low pressure over southeastern Lake Michigan at this
time continues to create strong surface winds around it. Current
wind gusts are up to 30 kts from the west-southwest over central KY,
with gusts of 40-50 kts from the west-northwest (behind the trailing
cold front) over parts of central Illinois. As the surface low moves
east this afternoon and evening, the front will move through central
KY and wind speeds/gusts should increase as well with gusts up to 40
kts at SDF and LEX (not as high as to our north), and up to 30 kts
at BWG. There will be scattered clouds around 5 kft with brief
ceilings possible late afternoon/early evening at LEX around 5-6 kft
(still VFR).
For tonight, the low pulls out rapidly as surface high pressure
builds in quickly causing a fast drop off in winds after dark. By
early Sunday morning, winds should be mainly light and variable as
surface temperatures fall below freezing. On Sunday, VFR conditions
continue with a mainly clear sky and winds becoming southwest during
the day at 10-15 kts.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-
078.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ026-
061>063-070>076-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
356 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
SNOWY EARLY APRIL DAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD MID LVL TEMPS REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WILL BE CENTERED ON LINGERING EVENING SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AND THE TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW...AND CURRENT HEADLINES.
THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AND DROPPING SOUTH OF SAGINAW BAY.
CORRESPONDING 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WITH
THE EXITING BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z.
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL OVER NRN MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE TRANSITION
TO LAKE INDUCED SNOWFALL IS ALREADY QUICKLY BECOMING EVIDENT...AS
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE BANDS BEGIN TO SHOW ON RADAR. 850MB TEMPS COOL
FROM EARLIER READINGS OF -8C TO -13C THIS EVENING AND FINALLY TO
-16C OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUDNINGS SHOWING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL TEMP AND
MSTR PROFILES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 6500FT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE MOST WELL ORGANIZED
AND DOMINATE LAKE BANDS OCCURRING AFTER 03Z...LIMITED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON BY SOLAR DISRUPTIONS AND UN-ORGANIZED 925-850MB WINDS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL WILL DIMINISH SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS
SYNOPTIC FORCING DWINDLES...AND REMOVE HEADLINE FROM SAGINAW BAY
AREA. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE HEADLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR
TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWBELT REGIONS AS NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT BEGINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
SUNDAY...WILL BE BLANKETING N LOWER WITH AN ADVISORY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT QUITE ALL TOGETHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
NAM THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW, THE GFS A
LITTLE MORE NORTH ALONG M-55, BUT WITH PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GETTING ENOUGH SNOW TO ADVISORY CRITERIA (>3"), AND THE ECMWF WITH
AN AXIS THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS TO ABOUT HARRISVILLE. THE
MIDDLE GROUND ON THIS WAS THE HI-RES ARW MODEL. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH GRR AND DTX, LOOKS LIKE A 4-6" AMOUNT FOR THE 24 HOURS OF 12Z
TO 12Z AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NEAR M-55, AND 3-5" IN THE
NORTH AREAS, EVEN UP TO NEAR THE BRIDGE. WON`T BE SURPRISED IF
PORTIONS OF THIS, DEPENDING ON THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND SIGNALS FOR
F-GEN BANDING THAT SOMEONE ENDS UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW.
MONDAY...AS THE LOW WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SNOW MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER VEER NE OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS AS MENTIONED BEFORE USUALLY IS A DRY, COLD FLOW AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF IT CLEARS OUT UPSTREAM SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT
MONDAY COULD BE A CHILLY START IN THE SOO, AND POSSIBLY NE LOWER
AS THE CLOUDS ARE PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST BRIEFLY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK N AND THEN NW. THE 850-700 MB
LAYER RH IS FAIRLY DRY UPSTREAM, BUT WITH THE INSTABILITY (850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C)THERE WILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP IN NW LOWER. SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
IN NW LOWER. THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND SW OVERNIGHT, WITH RAPID
DRYING SO THAT ANYTHING STILL GOING SHOULD SHUT OFF, AS WELL AS
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z.
TUESDAY...THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WE WARM UP WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INVADING THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
EXTENDED...
TUEDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...NEXT UPPER TROF WILL CROSS NORTHERN
MI WED NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKES REGION WED. NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS JOGGED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
LOW...A TREND THAT SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPS ON WED AND PRECIP FALLING
MORE AS SNOW AND LESS AS A MIX. WILL SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES...CERTAINLY STILL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.
ARCTIC SHORTWAVE DIVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THU NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PLUNGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE
EFFECT. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE SOME 15-20F BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...PERHAPS REBOUNDING AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES INTO
THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
SFC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW WILL
VARY DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE DAY AS COLD MID LVL TEMPS AND APRIL SUN COMBINE. A
TRANSITION TO LAKE INDUCED SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TAF STIES...AS WINDS
TREND NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY. ANOTHER PLAINS STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBY AND SNOW FOR NRN MI TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING
THE WEEKEND...AS ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WHILE A SECOND SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT...REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF THEN NORTHERN MICHGIAN NEARSHORE WATERS WITH GALES IN
THE ERN STRAITS. WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING...
BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ019>022-
025>028-031>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ029-
030-035-036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JZ/JSL
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SWR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
226 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 TONIGHT. A SECOND EARLY SPRING
SNOW AND ICE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR I-96 WILL SEE A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT AREAS NORTH OF M-46 WILL
SEE MOSTLY SNOW... MAYBE UP TO 6 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS... THEN MORE
SNOW IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
I ADDED ALLEGAN COUNTY TO OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE HAVE
HAD REPORTS OF AROUND 2 1/2 INCHES IN CASTLE PARK AND IT WILL SNOW
THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94
AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES
IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM
HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW
BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT
HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW
IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB
TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW
FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN
OUR FORECAST.
THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE
REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND
TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH.
FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD
ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE
LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S
TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE
ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN
US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO
DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDE OFFS. SOUTH OF
THERE MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD.
BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW
OF COUNTIES.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA
AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT.
SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM
BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
SECOND CLIPPER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL).
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN
OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING
TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE
OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR
SIGNIFICANT THUR/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL
SUN...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP BY
20-21Z WITH IFR BECOMING MORE COMMON. IT WILL END QUICKLY WITH
MVFR/VFR BY 22-23Z. IT WILL THEN REMAIN VFR TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KNOTS BETWEEN 20-00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AFTER 00Z.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. THE I-96 TAF SITES SHOULD
DROP TO IFR AROUND 16-17Z...WHILE I-94 TAF SITES MAY DROP TO IFR
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE
REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER
AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 TONIGHT. A SECOND EARLY SPRING
SNOW AND ICE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR I-96 WILL SEE A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT AREAS NORTH OF M-46 WILL
SEE MOSTLY SNOW... MAYBE UP TO 6 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS... THEN MORE
SNOW IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
I ADDED ALLEGAN COUNTY TO OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE HAVE
HAD REPORTS OF AROUND 2 1/2 INCHES IN CASTLE PARK AND IT WILL SNOW
THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94
AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES
IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM
HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW
BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT
HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW
IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB
TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW
FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN
OUR FORECAST.
THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE
REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND
TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH.
FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD
ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE
LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S
TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE
ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN
US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO
DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDE OFFS. SOUTH OF
THERE MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD.
BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW
OF COUNTIES.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA
AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT.
SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM
BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
SECOND CLIPPER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL).
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN
OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING
TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE
OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR
SIGNIFICANT THUR/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL
SUN...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP BY
20-21Z WITH IFR BECOMING MORE COMMON. IT WILL END QUICKLY WITH
MVFR/VFR BY 22-23Z. IT WILL THEN REMAIN VFR TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KNOTS BETWEEN 20-00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AFTER 00Z.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. THE I-96 TAF SITES SHOULD
DROP TO IFR AROUND 16-17Z...WHILE I-94 TAF SITES MAY DROP TO IFR
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE
REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER
AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/SYNOPSIS
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 TONIGHT. A SECOND EARLY SPRING
SNOW AND ICE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR I-96 WILL SEE A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT AREAS NORTH OF M-46 WILL
SEE MOSTLY SNOW... MAYBE UP TO 6 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS... THEN MORE
SNOW IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
I ADDED ALLEGAN COUNTY TO OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE HAVE
HAD REPORTS OF AROUND 2 1/2 INCHES IN CASTLE PARK AND IT WILL SNOW
THERE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
I BROUGHT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTH SINCE ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SINCE 09Z HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (SNOW MOSTLY) BETWEEN I-94
AND I-96. IN FACT THE RAP MODEL AT 11Z WAS SHOWING UP TO 8 INCHES
IN EATON COUNTY BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. SIMILAR RESULTS COME FROM
HRRR AND 4KM NAM (THAT IS THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW
BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96). THE COBB SNOW TOOL HOWEVER SHOWS SNOW BUT
HAS IT ALL MELTING AS IT FALLS. MY SPIN ON THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW
IF FALLING AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RATE TEMPERATURES WILL WET BULB
TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. STILL WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (ROAD SENSOR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR OUR CWA) EVEN WHAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING SLOWLY. SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IF TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW
FREEZING AND THIS WAS AT NIGHT. I KEPT THE 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN
OUR FORECAST.
THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME... MOSTLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM IS WHEN
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE LATEST SURFACE
REPORTS FROM WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS SHOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SO THE HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE THERE. I ADDED WIND
TO THE TEXT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO BLOW ALL THAT MUCH.
FOR THE MOST PART I KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT I DID ADD
ALLEGAN COUNTY AS IT DID NOT THINK...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA THAT ALLEGAN COUNTY WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW TO BE IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TWO CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND EACH ONE MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE PCPN WITH THE FIRST CLIPPER SHOULD HIT THE
LAKESHORE AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. WE/LL SEE SNOW DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE 30S
TODAY...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL DURING THE DAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT AND WE
ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3 ROWS OF COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN
US-10 AND I-96. WE FEEL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLICK ROADS TO
DEVELOP RESULTING IN SOME ACCIDENTS AND SLIDEOFFS. SOUTH OF THERE
MORE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SEEN AND SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIMITED WITH LESS OF A TRAVEL HAZARD. BUFKIT WIND PROFILES SHOW
STRONG WINDS REACHING DOWN BELOW 1K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
THE NEXT CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA
AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR IT.
SINCE THESE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WITH A DECENT GAP BETWEEN THEM
BUT SOME OVERLAP IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED...WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY SYSTEM YET.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
SECOND CLIPPER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
THROUGHOUT. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW...IT LOOKS COLDER THAN NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN
THE LOWER 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUR FORECAST HAS 40S TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION (NEAR NORMAL).
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE ONLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES IN
OVER A LOW LEVEL COLDER AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLDER AIR SLIDES BACK IN...WITH UPPER TROUGHING
TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB/S STEADILY COOL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WORDING MUCH OF THE TIME THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRY TO SWITCH PRECIP TYPE
OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/S. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY OR
SIGNIFICANT THURS/FRI...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND APRIL SUN...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDAY HOURS (16Z-19Z). SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST AS WILL LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SNOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS KICK UP INTO
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. KAZO AND KBTL WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 30 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
WHITEHALL...35 TO 40 KNOTS. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT GALES MIGHT NOT BE
REACHED TODAY NORTH OF WHITEHALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM... THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR MAPLE RAPIDS AND THE ROGUE RIVER
AT ROCKFORD. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1209 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.AVIATION...
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH POTENT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY. SNOW WILL BE THE
DOMINANT PTYPE FROM KPTK NORTH. CELLULAR CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KFNT/KMBS BEFORE MORE
OGANIZED PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD
21-02Z. BANDING EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SW LOWER MI
WILL TAKE OVER FROM KPTK SOUTH. REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH THERE IS QUESTION
REGARDING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ON BOTH WARM AND WET GROUND.
NONETHELESS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW
HOURS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY IN THE DETROIT AREA. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AIRCRAFT
ICING...WHICH IS BECOMING EVIDENT IN REGIONAL PIREPS...IN ADDITION
TO A LOW CHC THUNDER.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND GUST OVER 30 KTS THIS
AFTN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...ATTM IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
DTW...BUT STILL MAY APPROACH 40 KTS IN THE DETROIT AREA NONTHELESS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS DRY ADVECTION INCREASES LATE.
FOR DTW...PRECIP ONSET AROUND 18Z MAY INITIALLY BE -SHRA OR RA/SN
MIX. HOWEVER, HEAVY PRECIP RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW AFTER 21Z.
THE ONLY OBSTACLE TO INCLUDING 1/4 +SN IN THE PRESENT FORECAST IS
UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE AS THE BAND WILL IMPACT KDTW DURING THE MAXIMUM
IN DIURNAL HEATING. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
19-21Z. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UPON
ITS PASSAGE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT.
* MEDIUM FOR PTYPE OF SNOW AFTER 18Z. HIGH AFTER 23Z.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE
* HIGH FOR NW WIND NW WIND EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 421 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
DISCUSSION...
AN ACTION PACKED WEEKEND IN FRONT OF US WITH TWO SUCCESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WAVELENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS SET TO SWING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE SECOND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
DESPITE BEING SMALLER IN STATURE...ALL SIGNS POINT TO EACH OF THE
SYSTEMS PACKING THEIR OWN PUNCH.
VERY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG LOW DEEPENING
RATES...IS CURRENTLY DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
POSITIONING WITH A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO THE VICINITY OF
DULUTH...MN AS OF 0700Z. MODELS SUPPORT THE CRUX OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND IMPINGEMENT OF LEAD LEFT EXIT JET SURGE TO THE
BORDER REGION OF MI/IN/OH ALREADY BY 18Z WHICH IS NOW SLIGHTLY AHEAD
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. THIS PRESENTS A LITTLE BIT OF A CONUNDRUM
BECAUSE AT THIS SAME TIME...THE PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION WANTS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY...MORE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DTX CWA. THE END RESULT IS A LITTLE MORE OF
A DIFFUSE LOW CENTER...WITH A MORE SHARP/TIGHT/COMPACT MSLP GRADIENT
ON A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL FAVOR THE MORE FAVORABLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY CENTER OR STING JET REGION...SAY RIGHT THROUGH
THE DETROIT AREA.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR TODAY HAS TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN...1. THE
HIGH END WIND POTENTIAL FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AND THE SHORELINE AREAS ALONG THE THUMB THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE ONSHORE FLOW....2. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION
RATES IN SNOWFALL FROM THE DETROIT SUBURBS NORTHWARD...BUT PRIMARILY
SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS.
A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS TO CONVEY ON THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WITH THE
IDEA OF A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW CENTER...THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL
FORCING SHOULD JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE ON THE IMMEDIATE
BACKSIDE OF THE SHARP SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF
ISALLOBARIC AND GRADIENT WIND COMPONENTS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN
HIRES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS THAT A LOW TOPPED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE COULD IGNITE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SEGMENT OF
THE LINE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES
BETWEEN 21-00Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THIS
ASCENT/SUBSIDENCE DELINEATION THAT WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. FOR THIS REASON ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES BETWEEN 19-03Z.
THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE SHORELINE AREAS
OF TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
WITH REDUCED FRICTION FLOW COULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH.
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT (SEE BELOW)...WILL INCLUDE
A BREAKOUT IN THE WSW TO BULLET POINT THIS HIGHER WIND THREAT FOR
THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
THE OTHER HUGE DISCUSSION POINTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS ON
PRECIPITATION RATES...TYPE...AND AMOUNTS. THE EASY SUBJECT IS
PRECIPITATION RATES AND TYPE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SOUNDING THAT IS PRACTICALLY ON ITS
SIDE WITH VERY STEEP AND SATURATED LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO
THE TROPOPAUSE/OR 18 KFT AGL. WITH THE VERY LOW STATIC STABILITY TO
EVEN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MODELS SUPPORTING FREEZING HEIGHTS AT LESS
THAN 1 KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET...ALL
AREAS SHOULD WITNESS SNOWFLAKES OUT OF THE HIGHEST RATES.
OVERWHELMINGLY THE MORE DIFFICULT TOPIC IS AMOUNTS. THE DISCUSSION
FROM YESTERDAY HIGHLIGHTED A COUPLE OF REASONS THAT ACCUMULATION
EFFICIENCY MAY BE COMPROMISED...WET/MILD GROUND CONDITIONS AND
AFTERNOON INSOLATION EFFECTS. ANOTHER NEGATIVE HAS APPEARED IN THE
FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE MORE
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OF A DEGREE OR TWO IS WREAKING COMPLETE HAVOC
ON BOTH THE MODEL PTYPE ALGORITHMS AND THE LOCAL SNOW RATIO TOOL.
COULD GO BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATES OF 1
INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER AND FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS...THE DECISION
WAS TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/ST CLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD. IN SHORT...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH 2
OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN 3 HOURS. THE RAP AND SOME OF THE HIRES
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ON A MINI/PSEUDO
TROWAL AXIS SOMEWHERE ALONG/BETWEEN THE M59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS (19-
01Z). ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA/NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION/DEFORMATION
AXIS.
NO SURPRISES IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH REGARDS TO THE SECOND
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SEEMED TO
CONGEAL ONTO THE IDEA OF AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
DETROIT METRO WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ROCKING JUST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM NOSE AWAY
.LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE OR FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE THAT STILL EXISTS IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH THE ECMWF
STILL VERY WELL TEMPERED IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ENOUGH SO THAT IT WAS
A FAIRLY EASY DECISION TO FORGO ANY WINTER STORM WATCH
CONSIDERATIONS. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST IS STILL SIDED HEAVILY
TOWARD A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY SOLUTION WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 PRIMARILY 18Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL EXIST BUT POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE FOR THE TERRAIN.
MARINE...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WITH THIS LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORM REACHES THE EASTERN
LAKES THIS EVENING. THEREFORE GALES WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST WINDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD...TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE STORM. THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY ALSO SEE FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PEAKS. THIS
STORM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL FEATURE
AN UPTICK IN WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WHILE BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING RAIN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ABOUT M-59 AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL AGAIN TARGET LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF
M-59 WHERE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE METRO
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REACH NEAR A HALF INCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MAY RESULT IN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND THE I-69
CORRIDOR.
WITH THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY SWOLLEN AND SOILS
SATURATED...ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THIS NEW PRECIPITATION FALLING
OVER THE REGION. HELPING MITIGATE SOME ISSUES WILL BE THE FACT IT IS
FALLING OVER THE COURSE OF AROUND 36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
WILL ALSO HELP BY HOLDING MOISTURE AND SLOWLY RELEASING IT AS IT
MELTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-
422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND HAS BEEN DRIVING
LINGERING BKN/OVC CUMULUS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, RESULTING A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET...ACCELERATING THE CLEARING TREND AND PERHAPS GIVING
PEOPLE A CHANCE TO VIEW A POSSIBLE AURORA DUE TO A GEOMAGNETIC
STORM IN PROGRESS AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS.
HOWEVER...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA. THE
CLIPPER WILL DIVE OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN PASS THROUGH SE NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EARLY SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND NEARBY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...REACH MAX
INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...AND GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE EXACTLY THE BAND WILL SET UP...AND HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
FALL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MODEL TREND WAS TO SHIFT THE BAND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUNS. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH...EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT TO RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS
ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. CONCERNED ABOUT THE AGGRESSIVE
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL...WHICH DEPICTS MUCH GREATER AND FOCUSED
PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS. MAY NEED TO REFINE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS AS
THE RAP AND HRRR COME INTO PLAY AND OFFER A MEANS TO BETTER
ESTIMATE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BAND.
OTHERWISE...BACKING WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...BUT PARTS OF
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET A PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND BE ABLE TO WARM UP MUCH
MORE SO THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY CUT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SYNOPTIC LIFT TO RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AREA
SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -10C OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AREA TO -18C
NORTHEAST AT 12Z MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL SHOW A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE
NAM SUPPORTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF. SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...AND WE
1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE NORTH SHORE TO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AS BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS ON THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH MONDAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
NORTHLAND DRY.
A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WEAKER QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT THE RESULT
WILL BE THE SAME ON THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
WE TRENDED A BIT COLDER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE MORE OF A
MIX TUESDAY AND SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW SOONER TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM 30 TO 40 FOR MOST AREAS WITH MID
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK TO 30 TO 40 THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE CLIPPER THAT IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND COLD
AIR ALOFT HAS LED TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CLOUD STREETS
AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CAUSE THE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
CEILINGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR OR BECOME SCATTERED. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BACKING TO EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN THEY WILL LOWER AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 21 30 21 31 / 40 30 50 50
INL 16 31 13 31 / 70 70 30 0
BRD 23 43 25 41 / 0 10 10 0
HYR 17 39 21 35 / 30 20 10 10
ASX 18 31 21 31 / 60 60 60 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ012-
020-021.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Sfc ridge will build into the region tonight allowing winds to
gradually diminish this evening. Winds shud become light and vrb
before becoming sly as the ridge shifts ewd. The sly winds shud help
keep temps warmer. Going forecast for temps tonight still appear to
be on track and little change was made from the previous forecast.
With the much drier air advecting swd into the region, believe
potential for frost is minimal and have reduced coverage to patchy
frost for tonight. Areas where winds become sly even sooner will
likely have an even harder time generating frost except for perhaps
sheltered areas.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Yet another clipper will move from the Northern Plains across the
Upper Mississippi Valley to near Chicago on Sunday. We will remain
in the warm sector all day Sunday with strong and gusty southwest
flow through through much of the day. The 850mb thermal ridge ahead
of the clipper is forecast to extend from near Kansas City up across
northern Missouri into west central Illinois and down across central
Missouri...and there should be good mixing according to forecast
soundings. Expect our warmest temperatures in the low to mid 70s
across those areas. Moisture will be somewhat lacking as the front
moves through, but guidance is printing out some light QPF Sunday
evening. Went ahead and threw in some slight chance for showers to
cover this eventuality.
Monday and Tuesday look quiet in between system s with an upper
level shortwave ridge building overhead with temperatures near...or
slightly above normal. Medium range guidance is advertising another
longwave trof to dig into the eastern CONUS Wednesday and hanging
around through the end of the week. The cold front moves through
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely and temperatures
fall to a bit below normal for Thursday and Friday with a continuing
slight chance of showers behind the front Wednesday night and
Thursday due to steep lapserates and strong mid and upper level lift
as a series of shortwaves ripple across the area in strong northwest
flow. ECMWF and GFS are pretty different out next Saturday with
respect to the synoptic pattern, but it should be warmer than the
previous two days as the surface ridge will be further east allowing
for some return flow back into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
VFR through the period with gusty west to northwest winds. Wind
gusts will approach 40kts during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Winds will subside after sunset. A surface ridge
will then move across the region tonight, causing a period of
lgt/var winds followed by a shift to southerly winds late in the
TAF period.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 37 72 52 62 / 0 0 5 5
Quincy 31 71 45 56 / 0 0 20 5
Columbia 34 72 50 65 / 0 0 5 5
Jefferson City 34 73 52 66 / 0 0 5 5
Salem 31 67 50 61 / 0 0 10 10
Farmington 33 69 51 66 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Sfc ridge will build into the region tonight allowing winds to
gradually diminish this evening. Winds shud become light and vrb
before becoming sly as the ridge shifts ewd. The sly winds shud help
keep temps warmer. Going forecast for temps tonight still appear to
be on track and little change was made from the previous forecast.
With the much drier air advecting swd into the region, believe
potential for frost is minimal and have reduced coverage to patchy
frost for tonight. Areas where winds become sly even sooner will
likely have an even harder time generating frost except for perhaps
sheltered areas.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Yet another clipper will move from the Northern Plains across the
Upper Mississippi Valley to near Chicago on Sunday. We will remain
in the warm sector all day Sunday with strong and gusty southwest
flow through through much of the day. The 850mb thermal ridge ahead
of the clipper is forecast to extend from near Kansas City up across
northern Missouri into west central Illinois and down across central
Missouri...and there should be good mixing according to forecast
soundings. Expect our warmest temperatures in the low to mid 70s
across those areas. Moisture will be somewhat lacking as the front
moves through, but guidance is printing out some light QPF Sunday
evening. Went ahead and threw in some slight chance for showers to
cover this eventuality.
Monday and Tuesday look quiet in between system s with an upper
level shortwave ridge building overhead with temperatures near...or
slightly above normal. Medium range guidance is advertising another
longwave trof to dig into the eastern CONUS Wednesday and hanging
around through the end of the week. The cold front moves through
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely and temperatures
fall to a bit below normal for Thursday and Friday with a continuing
slight chance of showers behind the front Wednesday night and
Thursday due to steep lapserates and strong mid and upper level lift
as a series of shortwaves ripple across the area in strong northwest
flow. ECMWF and GFS are pretty different out next Saturday with
respect to the synoptic pattern, but it should be warmer than the
previous two days as the surface ridge will be further east allowing
for some return flow back into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
VFR through the period with gusty west to northwest winds. Wind
gusts will approach 40kts during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Winds will subside after sunset. A surface ridge
will then move across the region tonight, causing a period of
lgt/var winds followed by a shift to southerly winds late in the
TAF period.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 37 72 52 62 / 0 0 5 5
Quincy 31 71 45 56 / 0 0 20 5
Columbia 34 72 50 65 / 0 0 5 5
Jefferson City 34 73 52 66 / 0 0 5 5
Salem 31 67 50 61 / 0 0 10 10
Farmington 33 69 51 66 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO-
Dent MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Jefferson MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Main concerns in this time frame are on winds/relative humidities
and temperatures Sunday afternoon and corresponding fire weather
concerns. Overall, confidence level high with sensible weather
impacts.
Quiet and dry weather will be the rule through Sunday. The gusty
winds this afternoon will diminish quickly this evening as a surface
ridge of high pressure builds into the region from the west. The
ridge axis quickly moves east of the area late tonight and Sunday
with winds coming around to the south on its back side. Before that
occurs across the eastern Ozarks may see some patchy frost late
tonight. Low level warm advection will help temperatures warm into
the upper 60s to middle 70s Sunday afternoon. Pressure gradient
again tightens with deep mixing once again and expect south to
southwest winds to pick up with gusts to 25 to 35 mph once again.
This combined with relative humidities bottoming out in the 25 to
30 percent range will lead to elevated fire weather concerns once
again Sunday afternoon and may approach Red Flag criteria in some
locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Northwest flow pattern continues on Monday with a dry cold frontal
passage during the morning hours, with cool high pressure nosing in
from the north in the afternoon. Core of the high remains well north
across Great lakes region. Coolest readings will be across central
Missouri where afternoon highs will be in the 60s, while far
southwest Missouri will likely rise into the lower to middle 70s.
Shortwave trough then translates across the northern Plains Tuesday
and Tuesday night and into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region
on Wednesday. This will drag a north/south oriented cold front into
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Pressure gradient really tightens up on Tuesday ahead of
the front and wouldn`t be surprised if we hit wind advisory
criteria across western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Deep
moisture will be lacking ahead of front and thus instabilities
looks rather weak, with GFS only showing upwards of 100 to 150
j/kg of most unstable CAPE. So no severe weather expected with any
of the activity.
System clears the area later Wednesday with a return to the
northwest flow regime that has been so common as of late.
Temperatures cool behind the front on Thursday with highs just in
the 50s to lower 60s, but then return to more seasonal levels Friday
and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight. Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest
this afternoon with wind speeds ranging from 15 to 30 kts. Winds
will subside this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Southerly winds will return and increase Sunday as the
high pressure system moves off to the east.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Main concerns in this time frame are on winds/relative humidities
and temperatures Sunday afternoon and corresponding fire weather
concerns. Overall, confidence level high with sensible weather
impacts.
Quiet and dry weather will be the rule through Sunday. The gusty
winds this afternoon will diminish quickly this evening as a surface
ridge of high pressure builds into the region from the west. The
ridge axis quickly moves east of the area late tonight and Sunday
with winds coming around to the south on its back side. Before that
occurs across the eastern Ozarks may see some patchy frost late
tonight. Low level warm advection will help temperatures warm into
the upper 60s to middle 70s Sunday afternoon. Pressure gradient
again tightens with deep mixing once again and expect south to
southwest winds to pick up with gusts to 25 to 35 mph once again.
This combined with relative humidities bottoming out in the 25 to
30 percent range will lead to elevated fire weather concerns once
again Sunday afternoon and may approach Red Flag criteria in some
locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Northwest flow pattern continues on Monday with a dry cold frontal
passage during the morning hours, with cool high pressure nosing in
from the north in the afternoon. Core of the high remains well north
across Great lakes region. Coolest readings will be across central
Missouri where afternoon highs will be in the 60s, while far
southwest Missouri will likely rise into the lower to middle 70s.
Shortwave trough then translates across the northern Plains Tuesday
and Tuesday night and into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region
on Wednesday. This will drag a north/south oriented cold front into
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Pressure gradient really tightens up on Tuesday ahead of
the front and wouldn`t be surprised if we hit wind advisory
criteria across western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Deep
moisture will be lacking ahead of front and thus instabilities
looks rather weak, with GFS only showing upwards of 100 to 150
j/kg of most unstable CAPE. So no severe weather expected with any
of the activity.
System clears the area later Wednesday with a return to the
northwest flow regime that has been so common as of late.
Temperatures cool behind the front on Thursday with highs just in
the 50s to lower 60s, but then return to more seasonal levels Friday
and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight. Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest
this afternoon with wind speeds ranging from 15 to 30 kts. Winds
will subside this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Southerly winds will return and increase Sunday as the
high pressure system moves off to the east.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
249 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
Little change in forecast through the next 7 days. Only concern
overnight may be some patchy frost in far northeast Missouri with
temperatures falling into middle 30s. Thermal axis shifts over the
region on Sunday in approach of a weak cold front. Result will be
breezy southwest winds and well-above normal temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s. Fire weather will be elevated Sunday afternoon
as strong mixing provides relative humidity values falling into the
25-30 percent range, along with gusty winds and dry fuels.
A cooler day is expected on Monday as an upper trough dives into the
Ohio Valley, ushering in cooler and drier air upon northeasterly
surface winds. This slight cool down is short-lived as upper level
ridging builds into the Plains on Tuesday ahead of the next upper
trough. Moisture will rapidly return to the area Tuesday afternoon
with highs warming into the lower 70s in the western forecast area. A
cold front will move through the CWA Tuesday evening/night, bringing
the next best chance for precipitation in the form of thunderstorms.
Limited instability and timing of the convection should help mitigate
some severe weather potential, but strong shear will exist so will
need to closely monitor setup as system evolves. Scattered showers
may persist into Wednesday before the trough shifts eastward, with
surface high pressure building into the area Thursday into Friday.
This will spell a cooler and dry period for the area before
temperatures gradually rebound for next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Forecast generally on track going into this afternoon. However
issued a Red Flag Warning for south central Missouri where fire
weather conditions will be most critical. Gusty westerly winds up
to 35 mph will gradually shift to the northwest as a secondary
cold front drops southward. Minimum relative humidity values this
afternoon will range from 20 to 30 percent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Deep northwest flow continues aloft across the area this morning,
with temperatures falling into the 30s under clear skies. Patchy
frost will remain possible through daybreak, especially within
sheltered valleys.
Another day of seasonable temperatures and northwest winds is
expected today. Winds will become rather gusty by afternoon, as a
dry cold front passes through the area. With a dry airmass in
place, these winds will lead to elevated to significant fire
weather conditions across the CWA. This will especially be the
case over south central Missouri, where the highest winds and
lowest RH will be co-located.
Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Much warmer conditions are then expected Sunday, with highs
warming into the 70s as winds become southerly at the surface.
Moisture will be slow to return to the area, resulting in another
day of widespread elevated fire weather conditions.
Monday is expected to bring another dry frontal passage, likely
leading to a decent temperatures gradient from north to south over
the forecast area. Winds will become southerly again on Tuesday,
boosting temperatures over the western CWA into the 70s.
Our next chance of rain then looks to move into the area
Wednesday, as a couple of strong shortwaves again carve out deep
northwest flow across the central and eastern portions of the
United States. A lack of quality moisture ahead of this system
should keep any severe weather threat at bay, with just rain and
general thunder expected.
Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight. Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest
this afternoon with wind speeds ranging from 15 to 30 kts. Winds
will subside this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Southerly winds will return and increase Sunday as the
high pressure system moves off to the east.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
...Red Flag Warning this Afternoon for South Central Missouri...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Forecast generally on track going into this afternoon. However
issued a Red Flag Warning for south central Missouri where fire
weather conditions will be most critical. Gusty westerly winds up
to 35 mph will gradually shift to the northwest as a secondary
cold front drops southward. Minimum relative humidity values this
afternoon will range from 20 to 30 percent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Deep northwest flow continues aloft across the area this morning,
with temperatures falling into the 30s under clear skies. Patchy
frost will remain possible through daybreak, especially within
sheltered valleys.
Another day of seasonable temperatures and northwest winds is
expected today. Winds will become rather gusty by afternoon, as a
dry cold front passes through the area. With a dry airmass in
place, these winds will lead to elevated to significant fire
weather conditions across the CWA. This will especially be the
case over south central Missouri, where the highest winds and
lowest RH will be co-located.
Temperatures tonight will not be as cool, with lows ranging from
the upper 30s east to low 40s west.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Much warmer conditions are then expected Sunday, with highs
warming into the 70s as winds become southerly at the surface.
Moisture will be slow to return to the area, resulting in another
day of widespread elevated fire weather conditions.
Monday is expected to bring another dry frontal passage, likely
leading to a decent temperatures gradient from north to south over
the forecast area. Winds will become southerly again on Tuesday,
boosting temperatures over the western CWA into the 70s.
Our next chance of rain then looks to move into the area
Wednesday, as a couple of strong shortwaves again carve out deep
northwest flow across the central and eastern portions of the
United States. A lack of quality moisture ahead of this system
should keep any severe weather threat at bay, with just rain and
general thunder expected.
Cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week, with the
potential for a couple of additional frontal passages heading into
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight. Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest
this afternoon with wind speeds ranging from 15 to 30 kts. Winds
will subside this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Southerly winds will return and increase Sunday as the
high pressure system moves off to the east.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-081-
082-091-092-095>097-103>105.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
Quiet weather conditions continue into the start of this weekend as
vort max associated with the previously discussed upper-level trough
axis pushes off eastward and dry PWATs keeps the forecast area precip
free. Clouds are hard to come by in this pre-dawn morning, only to be
seen across portions of northern MO. Thanks to northwesterly flow
today, temps will top out around normal for early April and won`t be
quite as cold tonight. A beautiful spring day is in store.
Southerly flow returns overnight Saturday out ahead of the next
frontal boundary, allowing for highs Sunday to soar well into the
70s. Cool front will cross the region late Sunday and while moisture
still looks to be lacking to allow for widespread mentionable PoPs
with the boundary, the GFS and NAM is hinting at northeastern MO
possibly seeing some showers. Have therefore introduced slight
chance PoPs across the far NE but am not jumping on the bandwagon
just yet to bring mentionable PoPs any further south or west for this
forecast issuance. This could change as the next model runs will
allow inclusion of some additional high-res models to compare to.
Thermal profiles indicate the precip to fall in the form of rain,
should any fall.
The next opportunity for decent PoP chances arrives with the
crossing of a cold front late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Neutral
trough axis will be transitioning into a negative tilt as it
traverses through. Enough instability should be present to allow for
thunderstorm activity but it is still too far out to nail down
specifics. Higher shear values appear to trail behind the better
instability and moisture transport so severe potential looks limited
at this time, unless the appropriate parameters can coincide with one
another.
Vort max riding along the backside of the trough Wednesday night into
Thursday could bring one more shot of precip to the area if the GFS
proves to be true. Otherwise, benign weather looks to prevail as the
week concludes. Seasonable temps can be anticipated for the latter
half of the upcoming week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
Quiet weather conditions continue into the start of this weekend as
vort max associated with the previously discussed upper-level trough
axis pushes off eastward and dry PWATs keeps the forecast area precip
free. Clouds are hard to come by in this pre-dawn morning, only to be
seen across portions of northern MO. Thanks to northwesterly flow
today, temps will top out around normal for early April and won`t be
quite as cold tonight. A beautiful spring day is in store.
Southerly flow returns overnight Saturday out ahead of the next
frontal boundary, allowing for highs Sunday to soar well into the
70s. Cool front will cross the region late Sunday and while moisture
still looks to be lacking to allow for widespread mentionable PoPs
with the boundary, the GFS and NAM is hinting at northeastern MO
possibly seeing some showers. Have therefore introduced slight
chance PoPs across the far NE but am not jumping on the bandwagon
just yet to bring mentionable PoPs any further south or west for this
forecast issuance. This could change as the next model runs will
allow inclusion of some additional high-res models to compare to.
Thermal profiles indicate the precip to fall in the form of rain,
should any fall.
The next opportunity for decent PoP chances arrives with the
crossing of a cold front late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Neutral
trough axis will be transitioning into a negative tilt as it
traverses through. Enough instability should be present to allow for
thunderstorm activity but it is still too far out to nail down
specifics. Higher shear values appear to trail behind the better
instability and moisture transport so severe potential looks limited
at this time, unless the appropriate parameters can coincide with one
another.
Vort max riding along the backside of the trough Wednesday night into
Thursday could bring one more shot of precip to the area if the GFS
proves to be true. Otherwise, benign weather looks to prevail as the
week concludes. Seasonable temps can be anticipated for the latter
half of the upcoming week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
VFR through the period. Mainly a wind forecast with speeds relaxing
this evening before strengthening mid-morning Sunday and becoming
gusty.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
620 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
Main concerns today will be windy conditions and elevated fire
conditions. For the fire concerns...see the fire weather section
below.
A shortwave trough will drop out of Canada into the western Great
Lakes today. Its associated surface low will help tighten up the
pressure gradient across Missouri and Illinois today which will
cause very windy conditions. Expect mainly sunny conditions in
addition to the forecast soundings showing deep mixing up to 800mb,
so there should be gusts on top of the already strong sustained
winds. Will need to expand the advisory westward to included some
Missouri counties including the St. Louis metro area based on the
newest MOS guidance and mixing down RAP winds.
Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front
causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection. Highs
are close to a a mix of GFS/NAM MOS temperature guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
(Tonight through Monday)
Have gone with a freeze warning for tonight over parts of west
central and south central Illinois. Upper trough and associated low
pressure will move quickly east this evening and surface ridge will
move across area overnight. With clear skies and there being a
period of light winds, still expect areas of frost to develop. Not
sure however how widespread the frost will be as the ridge will move
off to the east by 12Z, and winds will already turn out of the south
which may inhibit some frost formation. However, still expect lows
to reach 32 or lower over west central and south central Illinois by
late tonight, so went ahead and issued a freeze warning in these
areas.
Still looks Sunday will be much warmer as winds will turn out of the
southwest ahead of this next cold front which move through the area
on Sunday night. With mixing up into the 900-800mb layer and plenty
of sunshine, still expect highs to range from the lower 60`s from
south central Illinois to the lower 70`s over northeast and central
Missouri. Both the NAM/GFS show that cold front passing through the
area on Sunday night with closer to normal temperatures on Monday.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Not much change to going forecast as the upper flow becomes more
amplified during the period. Trough over the northern Plains on
Tuesday will dig southeastward and become a deep trough over the
eastern CONUS by Thursday with large ridge over the west. In the
meantime, it still appears that the GFS/ECMWF are in decent
agreement that the trough and its attendant cold front will pass
through Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday, so will continue with
the chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Chance of
showers will linger into Wednesday night before turning dry late in
the week.
Tuesday will be relatively cool in the southeast flow from the
receding surface high before we get warmer ahead of the cold front
on Wednesday. Then temperatures will begin to cool off again
underneath the upper trough.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
VFR through the period with gusty west to northwest winds. Wind
gusts will approach 40kts during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. Winds will subside after sunset. A surface ridge
will then move across the region tonight, causing a period of
lgt/var winds followed by a shift to southerly winds late in the
TAF period.
Kanofsky
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Apr 2 2016
We will have an elevated fire danger both today and on Sunday for
low relative humidity values...dry fuels and windy conditions.
Forecast fuels are expected to be in the 9-10 percent range today
which is what they fell to yesterday according to the RAWS
observations. Relative humidity values are expected to fall into
the 25-30 percent range across all but south central Illinois
today and tomorrow. Winds are expected to be out of the west
between 10 and 25 mph with higher gusts today. They are expected
to be out of the southwest tomorrow between 10 and 20 mph.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Jefferson MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Pike MO-
Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis
MO.
IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette
IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-
Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
IL.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BY
AROUND 3 PM. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
WET SNOW FLAKES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLURRIES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME SUNNY BREAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DROP INTO THE 30S OVER WESTERN
NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY DISTINCT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING THIS PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING... BUT EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO BE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS SOUNDING BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING... BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 7 PM... TO
I-81 BY 10 PM... AND TO THE CATSILLS BY 11 PM.
UPDATED AT 1040 AM... COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE OVER THE POCONOS IS PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF
THAT AREA BY NOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TO THE CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S... BUT READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 40 IN
MANY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
LATEST 12Z NAM JUST COMING IN NOW AND CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF SOME
BIG CHANGES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A LOW- PRESSURE
CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS PA LATER
TONIGHT. THE IDEA FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL TARGETTED FOR THE TWIN TIERS OF
FAR NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
4 AM...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST
OFF TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER,
FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE PA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WAVE RIDES UP ALONG FRONT.
CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS TO
BRING WITH IT SOME SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME
BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A MAINLY
CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. AREA WILL BE IN TRANSITION FROM WARMTH
OF THIS PAST WEEK TO MUCH COLDER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE AND WINTER LIKE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW AND WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...LIKELY FALLING INITIALLY AS RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING EPIC SNOW AMOUNTS, THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW THAT COULD BE QUITE
HEAVY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG FORCING COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST SNOW WINDING DOWN BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW WILL
BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, STRONG PRESSURE RISES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ITS WAKE
OVER THE AREA EXPECT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS ALONG WITH WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S AND TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID -
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE FAR SE (SULLIVAN
COUNTY) AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES...ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA
COUNTIES. GENERALLY EXPECT 2-5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH
1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY.
AS IF THE ABOVE SYSTEM WASN`T ENOUGH, FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON A SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SNOW AS
TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY COLD, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT. THE FORCING ALOFT WON`T BE AS STRONG THOUGH THE DURATION OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS MODERATE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES.
VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRES
RESIDES OFF THE NJ COAST AND SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES. LATER WED THROUGH THURDSAY, SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE REGION MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COLDER AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NICE
REBOUND TO SEASONAL TEMPS ON WED. REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER READINGS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WINDS. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KITH/KELM/KBGM)WILL
FALL BELOW IFR WITH OCCASIONAL CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS BETWEEN
02Z-12Z. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY AFTER 02Z WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR BETWEEN 04Z-08Z. AT KAVP, MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z THEN A TRANSITION TO IFR SNOW UNTIL 10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOW VFR AFTER 12Z IN FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
W/NW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE
FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 08Z AT 15
TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN EVE-MON...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS IN SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...MAINLY VFR...OCCNL VFR POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS NW TERMINALS IN
RA/SN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BY
AROUND 3 PM. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
WET SNOW FLAKES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLURRIES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME SUNNY BREAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DROP INTO THE 30S OVER WESTERN
NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY DISTINCT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING THIS PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING... BUT EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO BE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS SOUNDING BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING... BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 7 PM... TO
I-81 BY 10 PM... AND TO THE CATSILLS BY 11 PM.
UPDATED AT 1040 AM... COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE OVER THE POCONOS IS PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF
THAT AREA BY NOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TO THE CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S... BUT READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 40 IN
MANY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
LATEST 12Z NAM JUST COMING IN NOW AND CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF SOME
BIG CHANGES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A LOW- PRESSURE
CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS PA LATER
TONIGHT. THE IDEA FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL TARGETTED FOR THE TWIN TIERS OF
FAR NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
4 AM...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST
OFF TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER,
FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE PA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WAVE RIDES UP ALONG FRONT.
CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS TO
BRING WITH IT SOME SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME
BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A MAINLY
CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. AREA WILL BE IN TRANSITION FROM WARMTH
OF THIS PAST WEEK TO MUCH COLDER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY ACTIVE AND WINTER LIKE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW AND WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...LIKELY FALLING INITIALLY AS RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING EPIC SNOW AMOUNTS, THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW THAT COULD BE QUITE
HEAVY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG FORCING COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST SNOW WINDING DOWN BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW WILL
BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, STRONG PRESSURE RISES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ITS WAKE
OVER THE AREA EXPECT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS ALONG WITH WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S AND TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID -
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE FAR SE (SULLIVAN
COUNTY) AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES...ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA
COUNTIES. GENERALLY EXPECT 2-5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH
1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY.
AS IF THE ABOVE SYSTEM WASN`T ENOUGH, FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON A SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SNOW AS
TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY COLD, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT. THE FORCING ALOFT WON`T BE AS STRONG THOUGH THE DURATION OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS MODERATE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES.
VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. THE PRESENCE OF RECENT SNOW ON THE GROUND COMBINED
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR GOING INTO TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THESE
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL APPROACH APRIL RECORD LOWS. THE
ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR APRIL AT BGM IS +9 DEG F...SYR IS +7...AVP
IS +8. RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE...BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AND USHER IN A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS ALONG WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG WAA REGIME WILL SET UP
AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN WILL COMBINE WITH BROAD
LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
DAY AND A CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A POTENT COASTAL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ON FRIDAY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL HELP DRAW THE COLD
AIR DOWN FROM CANADA AND PRODUCE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS SOLUTION IS
STILL A WEEK OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...CLOSE TO 50 ON THURSDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WINDS. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KITH/KELM/KBGM)WILL
FALL BELOW IFR WITH OCCASIONAL CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS BETWEEN
02Z-12Z. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY AFTER 02Z WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR BETWEEN 04Z-08Z. AT KAVP, MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z THEN A TRANSITION TO IFR SNOW UNTIL 10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/LOW VFR AFTER 12Z IN FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
W/NW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE
FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 08Z AT 15
TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN EVE-MON...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS IN SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...MAINLY VFR...OCCNL VFR POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS NW TERMINALS IN
RA/SN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BY
AROUND 3 PM. BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
WET SNOW FLAKES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME WET SNOW FLURRIES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME SUNNY BREAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DROP INTO THE 30S OVER WESTERN
NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A VERY DISTINCT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING THIS PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING... BUT EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO BE SNOW BY MIDNIGHT AS SOUNDING BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING... BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 7 PM... TO
I-81 BY 10 PM... AND TO THE CATSILLS BY 11 PM.
UPDATED AT 1040 AM... COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE OVER THE POCONOS IS PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF
THAT AREA BY NOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TO THE CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S... BUT READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 40 IN
MANY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
LATEST 12Z NAM JUST COMING IN NOW AND CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF SOME
BIG CHANGES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A LOW- PRESSURE
CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS PA LATER
TONIGHT. THE IDEA FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL TARGETTED FOR THE TWIN TIERS OF
FAR NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
4 AM...AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST
OFF TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER,
FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE PA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WAVE RIDES UP ALONG FRONT.
CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT THIS TO
BRING WITH IT SOME SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME
BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A MAINLY
CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. AREA WILL BE IN TRANSITION FROM WARMTH
OF THIS PAST WEEK TO MUCH COLDER DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY ACTIVE AND WINTER LIKE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW AND WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...LIKELY FALLING INITIALLY AS RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING EPIC SNOW AMOUNTS, THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW THAT COULD BE QUITE
HEAVY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. IN FACT DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG FORCING COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST SNOW WINDING DOWN BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW WILL
BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, STRONG PRESSURE RISES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ITS WAKE
OVER THE AREA EXPECT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS ALONG WITH WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S AND TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID -
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE FAR SE (SULLIVAN
COUNTY) AND OUR NORTHERN ZONES...ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA
COUNTIES. GENERALLY EXPECT 2-5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH
1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY.
AS IF THE ABOVE SYSTEM WASN`T ENOUGH, FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON A SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SNOW AS
TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY COLD, ESPECIALLY ALOFT, FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT. THE FORCING ALOFT WON`T BE AS STRONG THOUGH THE DURATION OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS MODERATE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES.
VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. THE PRESENCE OF RECENT SNOW ON THE GROUND COMBINED
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR GOING INTO TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. THESE
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL APPROACH APRIL RECORD LOWS. THE
ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR APRIL AT BGM IS +9 DEG F...SYR IS +7...AVP
IS +8. RECORDS SHOULD REMAIN SAFE...BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AND USHER IN A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS ALONG WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY STRONG WAA REGIME WILL SET UP
AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN WILL COMBINE WITH BROAD
LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
DAY AND A CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A POTENT COASTAL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ON FRIDAY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL HELP DRAW THE COLD
AIR DOWN FROM CANADA AND PRODUCE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS SOLUTION IS
STILL A WEEK OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...CLOSE TO 50 ON THURSDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE DECENT MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIFT AND ATTEMPT TO MIX
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY THROUGH THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION OF NY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
EXIT THE REGION AFTER 08Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE FUEL ALT
RANGE WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND VSBYS IFR OR BELOW ALT MINIMUMS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE
12Z. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW ON THE
GROUND TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN EVE-MON...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS IN SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...MAINLY VFR...OCCNL VFR POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS NW TERMINALS IN
RA/SN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT/DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
MOST OF THE STREAMERS THAT WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN FA HAVE MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST. THEY ARE QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK NORTHWEST INTO CANADA. RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS UNDER THIS BAND AND SEVERAL METARS ARE
ALSO REPORTING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. DO NOT HAVE ANY WEB CAMS
LOCATED RIGHT UNDER THESE ECHOES...BUT THE ONES WE DO HAVE DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH. THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW
AND SEE IF ANY LATER OBSERVATIONS LOOK MORE LIKE LIGHT SNOW. THESE
CLOUDS WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
SFC LOW AT 08Z WEST OF DULUTH. THE COLD AIR/WIND/PRESSURE RISE
SURGE HAS NOW MOVED THRU THE FCST AREA. SOME STRATOCU ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN RRV AND NW MN AND MOVING
SOUTH. STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE OUT
OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING A BIT TO UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER THE PRESSURE RISE HAS MOVED THROUGH. SO
WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AT 09Z.
FOR TODAY....CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS CHALLENGING. A CLEARING
AREA UPSTREAM AND WILL MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER AN AREA OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE IN ERN SASK WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY.
THUS NOT A FULL SUN DAY BUT A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN. TEMP GRADIENT
TODAY QUITE STRONG WITH MID 20S FOR HIGHS BAUDETTE TO LOW-MID 40S
FAR SOUTHWEST. HRRR HAS 70S IN WESTERN ND. SO QUITE THE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FASTER AND HAVE SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR GFK REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THUS
SUNDAY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS COLD ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING AS 925 MB TEMPS DROP. STILL IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT
WITH NR 60 FAR SW TO LOW 30S FAR NE. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
EXPECTED WINNIPEG AREA TO WARROAD-BAUDETTE. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA UNLIKE THE ONE JUST PAST. ALSO UPPER LEVEL
LIFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG EITHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO A BIT MORE
PROLONGED BUT LIGHTER SNOWFALL. STILL OVERALL 1-2 INCH PSBL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN FAR NE FCST AREA. DID UP POPS IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AS PRESSURE RISE NOT AS
STRONG AND LACK OF SFC HIGH BEHIND IT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY
12Z MONDAY. A BIT MILDER MONDAY ESP IN ERN ND BUT CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THIS TIME MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. TIMING OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY AFTER 06Z TUES
IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA. SLOWED DOWN TIMING A BIT FROM PREV
FCST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SFC LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN AND LINGER OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS FROM TUE
MORNING TO AROUND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AND POSSIBLY RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE COLDER
TEMPS EARLY TUE MORNING. SFC HIGH THEN MOVES IN AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER ROCKIES KEEPS AREA DRY FOR THU INTO FRI...HOWEVER NW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW VFR
STRATUS DECK AND VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ON THE EASTERN ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPPER OFF SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SWING FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN. ANOTHER FAST MOVING...BUT WEAK...
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ACROSS THE
FA ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND WITH SWAPPING
BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH. JUST TO THE WEST THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. EXPECTING THESE STRONGER WIND
GUSTS TO SLOWLY MAKE THERE WAY INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY
REMAIN RATHER STEEP EVEN AS THE SUN SETS DUE TO THE STRONG CAA.
ALSO LOOKED AT THE 1.5 PV SURFACE ON THE RAP AND IT SHOWS THE 1.5
SURFACE DOWN TO 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT
ON THE GRADIENT. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUITE. HAVE ALSO KEPT A WIND
ADVISORY GOING FOR A BIT AFTER THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER.
AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES AND WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FALL. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING START OFF
COLD NEAR MINUS 10... BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL KICK IN WITH 850 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO 8
OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALSO ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE FROM AROUND 1270 M IN THE MORNING TO 1330 M BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULARY
DIFFICULT BUT HAVE TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON VALUES OF
THE 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
SUNDAY EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIP FORMING
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
STARTING PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR 3Z AND PUSHING ALL
PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. PWATS WITH THE LOW ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE AROUND 0.85"... VIA NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS... WITH
WEAK TO MODEST OMEGA VALUES. THE WEAKER OMEGA VALUES AREN`T
SURPRISING AS EVEN THOUGH WAA IS STRONG AT THE TIME VORTICITY
ADVECTION IS NEUTRAL TO ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. MONDAY
AFTERNOON PVA STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT SO DOES STRONG CAA
SO OMEGA VALUES ARE VERY WEAK WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THE
CANCELING OF THE LIFT. MONDAY EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALLOWING THE AREA TO FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH QUIET/COOL WEATHER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MUCH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY
WILL BE SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN IN FAVORED DRAINAGE
AREAS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL OHIO NEAREST THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK
TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 40S ON TUESDAY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG S/W TROUGH TO
DIG INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED AFTN SENDING ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT NOW LOOKS WEAK-
MODERATE SO THUNDER POTENTIAL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT RAIN DOES LOOK LIKELY.
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY AMIDST STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL SET UP YET ANOTHER LIKELY
ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING INTO -8C TO -10C. IT`S A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD GIVEN
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW...LIKELY SOME INSTBY-DRIVEN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THIS
COULD BE SNOW FRIDAY SO RUNNING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AS
TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AT PEAK HEATING AND IN THE 30S
MORNINGS/EVENINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST...GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT DAY CMH AND LCK...WITH ILN CVG AND LUK
CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AS WELL. SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AT
NORTHERN SITES. WITH AIRMASS DRIER THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE BACKED
OFF INTENSITY TO LIGHT WHILE KEEPING TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES.
SKY COVER WILL NOT BE MAIN CONCERN WITH MODELS AND OBS INDICATING
VFR. LOOK FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND CONTINUED VFR ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ091>093.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ091>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ091>093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
094>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WINDY WITH A PENDING COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL LEVELS INTO EARLY WEEK...AS
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RUNNING THE RAP AND HRRR IN BUFKIT STILL DOES NOT WANT TO MIX
DOWN ALL OF THE MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT DESPITE THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND OVERTURNING. USING THE HRRR 925MB PLANE VIEW PROGS
GIVES A NOTEWORTHY DEPICTION OF WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL OCCUR. THERE IS CONSISTENCY TO THE PEAK OCCURRING OVER
THE ILN CWA...BUT THAT DOES LEAD TO CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OHIO COUNTIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING A HIGH WIND WARNING
UPGRADE IN THIS AREA. DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO HASTY WITH THIS AND
WANT TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT GOES THROUGH EASTERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN OHIO...WHEN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS FLOW
ALOFT IS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT ADDS SOME COMPLICATION TO THINGS...ADDING ANOTHER
RESOURCE FOR MIXING MOMENTUM DOWN AND ADDING SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING EFFECTS GIVEN THE MODEST INVERTED V VERTICAL PROFILE.
INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHOWERS MAY NEED WARNINGS FOR WIND IF THERE IS
NO UPGRADE FROM THE WIND ADVISORY. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MOST
VULNERABLE TO THIS.
SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS FORECAST EXCEPT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION INTO WEBSTER
COUNTY...AND EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ONLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWLANDS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. THIS HAS NOT YET STARTED FOR THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET AND NOT SO WINDY WEATHER SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES AND A DRY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON. SO LOOK FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A MILDER AND DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
MONDAY EVENING. A LONGER FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INGEST MORE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN SATURDAY`S SYSTEM.
MODELS SHOW THIS QUITE WELL...AND THUS HAVE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE SHOWERS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO
AROUND DAWN MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND EXITING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
AFTER A MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEARLY STEADY TO FALLING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE GUSTY MONDAY...BUT NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND RAPIDLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION. LOOK FOR AN INCH OR SO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING LATER THAT
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AGAIN. LOOK
FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE PUSHED EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF
FASTER BRINGING IN PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS DECENT BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH PASSAGE ACROSS THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND SHOULD
KEEP NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PRECIP GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLOWED THE DIURNAL TREND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO HOLD TEMPS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN HAVE
FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR WITH AN EXCEPTION OR TWO...BUT VERY WINDY.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOWS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS TO RAMP UP INTO THE 35 TO 45
KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
HTS/CRW/BKW ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. EKN WILL SEE A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS.
CKB AND EKN MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POST COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY AN HOUR
OR TWO. EKN MAY NEED BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>031-033-034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ032-035>040.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ105.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WINDY WITH A PENDING COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL LEVELS INTO EARLY WEEK...AS
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS PASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RUNNING THE RAP AND HRRR IN BUFKIT STILL DOES NOT WANT TO MIX
DOWN ALL OF THE MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT DESPITE THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND OVERTURNING. USING THE HRRR 925MB PLANE VIEW PROGS
GIVES A NOTEWORTHY DEPICTION OF WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL OCCUR. THERE IS CONSISTENCY TO THE PEAK OCCURRING OVER
THE ILN CWA...BUT THAT DOES LEAD TO CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OHIO COUNTIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING A HIGH WIND WARNING
UPGRADE IN THIS AREA. DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO HASTY WITH THIS AND
WANT TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT GOES THROUGH EASTERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN OHIO...WHEN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS FLOW
ALOFT IS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT ADDS SOME COMPLICATION TO THINGS...ADDING ANOTHER
RESOURCE FOR MIXING MOMENTUM DOWN AND ADDING SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING EFFECTS GIVEN THE MODEST INVERTED V VERTICAL PROFILE.
INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHOWERS MAY NEED WARNINGS FOR WIND IF THERE IS
NO UPGRADE FROM THE WIND ADVISORY. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MOST
VULNERABLE TO THIS.
SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS FORECAST EXCEPT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION INTO WEBSTER
COUNTY...AND EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ONLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWLANDS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. THIS HAS NOT YET STARTED FOR THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY CLEARING SKIES WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SW AND PICK
UP IN INTENSITY AGAIN AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER
THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST ON MONDAY
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
SHOWERS. THE FRONT QUICKLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...CHANGING ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRECIP WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND STICKS AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG 500MB TROUGH OR
CLOSED LOW LINGERS. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THIS ONE SOME SO
CONTINUED TO STAY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AND DOWN...AS COLD AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND EACH
COLD FRONT...AND THEN IS MODERATED SOME BY THE APRIL SUNSHINE THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR WITH AN EXCEPTION OR TWO...BUT VERY WINDY.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOWS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS TO RAMP UP INTO THE 35 TO 45
KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
HTS/CRW/BKW ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. EKN WILL SEE A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS.
CKB AND EKN MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POST COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY VARY AN HOUR
OR TWO. EKN MAY NEED BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>031-033-034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ032-035>040.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ105.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS DUE TO A DIGGING MID LVL S/WV ALONG WITH
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS TO OUR NRN/NERN FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
STILL EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO OUR SRN CWFA BY LATE IN THE
DAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTH OF I-70 FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ON TOP OF
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME GRAUPEL...OR
SMALL SOFT HAIL...MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS/COLD
AIR ALOFT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OVER
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH UPSTREAM OBS LOOKING ROBUST WE HAVE
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA 3 PM TO 8 PM.
THE GFS WITH ITS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALSO APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
THIS SYSTEM RATHER WELL.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AS
CAA AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A
FEW WET SNOWFLAKES NORTH AND EAST BEFORE PCPN BECOMES RELEGATED
OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 11 PM.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S
TO AROUND 30. IN THE REGION WHERE OUR SPRING GROWING SEASON HAS
COMMENCED...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING
WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT ORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE NORTH...OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES BOOST INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AFTER A COLD START.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL NOW MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD APPEARS OVER OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA.
NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE USED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY GIVEN WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT SNOW MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST...GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT DAY CMH AND LCK...WITH ILN CVG AND LUK
CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AS WELL. SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AT
NORTHERN SITES. WITH AIRMASS DRIER THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE BACKED
OFF INTENSITY TO LIGHT WHILE KEEPING TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES.
SKY COVER WILL NOT BE MAIN CONCERN WITH MODELS AND OBS INDICATING
VFR. LOOK FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND CONTINUED VFR ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1203 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS DUE TO A DIGGING MID LVL S/WV ALONG WITH
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS TO OUR NRN/NERN FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
STILL EXTENDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO OUR SRN CWFA BY LATE IN THE
DAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTH OF I-70 FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ON TOP OF
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME GRAUPEL...OR
SMALL SOFT HAIL...MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS/COLD
AIR ALOFT.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OVER
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH UPSTREAM OBS LOOKING ROBUST WE HAVE
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA 3 PM TO 8 PM.
THE GFS WITH ITS HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALSO APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
THIS SYSTEM RATHER WELL.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AS
CAA AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A
FEW WET SNOWFLAKES NORTH AND EAST BEFORE PCPN BECOMES RELEGATED
OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 11 PM.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S
TO AROUND 30. IN THE REGION WHERE OUR SPRING GROWING SEASON HAS
COMMENCED...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING
WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT ORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE NORTH...OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES BOOST INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AFTER A COLD START.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL NOW MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD APPEARS OVER OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA.
NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE USED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY GIVEN WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT SNOW MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. GUSTS OF OVER 40
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. A FEW GUSTS MAY EVEN APPROACH
50 KNOTS. AT AROUND THIS SAME TIME FRAME...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA..ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM WSW TO WNW. WIND
GUSTS WILL NOT DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...ROUGHLY DURING THE SAME FEW HOURS
THAT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY
TEMPORARILY BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT THE DAYTON / COLUMBUS AIRPORTS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME GRAUPEL
OR VERY SMALL HAIL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR ALL
BUT THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT COLUMBUS.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
922 AM PDT SAT APR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO BETTER DEPICT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTIES AS
WELL AS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, COAST, AND COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BTL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG IN SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, WHERE A PRETTY SOLID STRATUS DECK LIES BELOW ABOUT 6KFT.
ELSEWHERE, FOG IN THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN IS
PRESENT THIS MORNING. WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST A MORE SOLID
STRATUS DECK IS PRESENT.
THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THAT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE. SINCE MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AT PRESENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A
LOT OF SPREAD IN DETAIL WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWESTERN MODOC AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS, KLAMATH,
AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC, SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON, AND PORTIONS OF KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES. OTHER MODELS FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE TOWARD THE
TRINITY ALPS, ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND NORTH OF MOUNT SHASTA.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY IN A SHOWER FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION TO BE LOW AND MUCH MORE LIKELY TO NOT HAPPEN THAN TO
HAPPEN. HOWEVER, IT`S PRETTY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING TODAY.
SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT LOWERED CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE COAST. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SAT 2 APR 2016...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND COMBINED
SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TUESDAY. -BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 AM PDT SAT APR 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
THE FORECAST STILL GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE MARINE PUSH IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED
INLAND OVER MOST OF COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY MAKE
IT CLOSE TO ROSEBURG BY DAWN. WE`VE ALSO GOT SOME STRATUS AROUND
THE MT SHASTA AREA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AND A
LITTLE UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTS IT OVER THE TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, THE MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE TODAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS
MOISTURE AND TRIGGER, AND THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MENTIONED
YESTERDAY IS A BIT WEAKER IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO LOTS OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS, AND WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
LONG SHOT, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOT UNREASONABLE.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION
FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND UPPER
DYNAMICS IS A BIT BETTER, SO THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS. HOWEVER, EVEN IF STORMS FORM, THEY`D BE HARD PRESSED TO BE
MORE THAN ISOLATED, SO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUNDAY, AS WELL.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS HEADING IN NORTH OF US, SO THE
MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN THEY DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD SOAKING AT THE COAST AND AT LEAST SOME
RAIN OVER ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. THAT SAID, IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND DOWN, OBVIOUSLY, WE WOULD GET LESS.
NOTHING WAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AND THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY IS STILL VALID AND FOLLOWS. -WRIGHT
LONG TERM... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADS ACROSS TO THE EAST SIDE AS A
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEEPENS UP THE COAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING NORTH
INTO WASHINGTON STATE...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND TWENTY DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TO THE EAST SIDE FRIDAY. -SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
BTL/TRW/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
101 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY FOR MARATHON
CO...LINCOLN CO...AND ONEIDA CO. AS SNOW HAS DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
THERE. LEFT ADVISORY FOR VILAS CO ALONE DUE SINCE VSBYS HAVE BEEN
DOWN TO ZERO AT IWD AND LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES AT OBS SITES
WITHIN VILAS COUNTY.
PREVIOUS UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
AREA OF SNOW IS STAYING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN
EARLIER FORECAST...SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS AND POPS.
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT SO FOLLOWED IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS TWO CLIPPERS
TO IMPACT NE WI WITHIN 36 HOURS OF ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR TODAY IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS CLIPPER #1 IS QUITE
STRONG...BUT IS ALSO A FAST-MOVER. CLIPPER #2 IS NOT AS STRONG...
BUT DOES HAVE A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH CLIPPER #2 IS THAT A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT WILL NEED
TO BE SORTED OUT.
THE 08Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED CLIPPER #1 PASSING JUST SW OF
DLH...MAKE A BEELINE FOR CENTRAL WI. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALREADY INTO NW WI HEADED IN OUR
DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI
E-SE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS IS A POTENT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF
DYNAMICS INVOLVED TO PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. THERE IS STRONG LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE
MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. CENTRAL WI SHOULD SEE A STEADY SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY 10Z TO 17Z WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS. EASTERN WI WOULD SEE THE SNOW FLY FROM
ROUGHLY 13Z TO 20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS
WOULD SUGGEST A BROAD 2-3" TOTAL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/PARTS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE SNOW RATIOS ARE HIGHER (A
FEW 4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND GUSTY NW WINDS TO REV UP. WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WI THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WI THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS SKIES TEMPORARILY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD NE WI LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF CLIPPER #2 WHICH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW COULD ALREADY BE
APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE
A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND HOW
FAST CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT READINGS TO DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE
RANGE NORTH...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.
THIS SECOND CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN WI ON
SUNDAY...RIDING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NOT LIFT ANY FARTHER
NORTH THAN SOUTHERN WI. MODELS SHOW A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
TO EXIST OVER WI WITH 8H TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10C ALONG THE
UPPER MI BORDER...TO +8C OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NE
WI WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING COULD THERE BE ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND HOW MUCH SNOW COULD FALL NORTH? SINCE THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH...THERE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO COMPLETELY CHANGE ALL THE SNOW TO RAIN...
EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI (SOUTH OF A MFI-OSH LINE).
OTHERWISE...THIS IS GOING TO BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN
WI WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER HUDSON
BAY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO YANK QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT NIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME TOO
WARM DURING THE DAY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MONDAY IS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE CLIPPERS SWEEPS
IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING CLIPPER SYSTEM
WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPED IN UNSTABLE
AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THERE WAS ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT IN FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS WERE MAINLY VFR OR MVFR AND VSBYS
UNRESTRICTED...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS PRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSED ISOLATED WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE WINDS AND GUSTS WERE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO AN END...AND WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE EVENING...BUT THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAD THEIR QPF
GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THEY ENDED UP BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT IS CURRENTLY DEPARTING. MODEL SURFACE LOW PATHS LOOK FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM...AND THEY SHOW A TIGHT BAROCLINC
ZONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THEIR HIGHEST QPF. HAVE JUST
MENTIONED SNOW AT THIS POINT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE ON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR...WITH AREAS
OF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MG