Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/02/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

254 PM MST THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT
TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND
WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS
OVER MY FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER RETURNS ARE OVER
COCHISE COUNTY. EVEN SO...NO MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWING UP FROM
OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. THAT SAID...
POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING IS BASED HEAVILY ON LATEST HRRR AND SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM TUCSON
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA COULD BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. FOR NOW THE GFS
IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. 31/12Z MOS NUMBERS SHOW 25 PERCENT FOR TUCSON NEXT
THURSDAY...WHILE EURO SHOWS 2 PERCENT. SO THAT SAID...WITH CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND JUST KEPT MOSTLY SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

HUGE DISCREPANCIES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
BETWEEN GFS AND EURO WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AS WELL...WITH GFS SHOWING
A HIGH NEXT THURSDAY OF 78 DEGS...WHILE EURO SHOWS 96 DEGS.
AGAIN...JUST WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO...FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF THE
TUS TERMINAL THRU ABOUT 02/03Z...THEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER 02/18Z.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 10K-15K FT MSL WILL PREVAIL.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. OTHERWISE... SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST-TO-
SOUTH OF TUCSON INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED HUMIDITY VALUES. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
GENERALLY AROUND 25 MPH WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
LESSER WINDS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS/ FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...GM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1100 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE WILL SEE BEST
POPS. ALSO...FAR N EL PASO WILL ALSO SEE GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.

E SLOPES OF S MTNS WILL SEE ACCUM SNOWFALL...BUT ONCE AGAIN
PRECIP GRADIENT (SNOW AND RAIN) MAY BE VERY TIGHT. TRIED TO FINE
TUNE POPS GIVEN HI RES GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ALONG AND EAST OF S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. /HODANISH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PRIMARY
CLOUD FIELD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOW GRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING NOTED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...NEAR/SHORT TERM REAL-TIME
DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT IN
COMBINATION WITH NEXT COLDER AND MOIST NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE SURGE PUSHING INTO THE THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE DEPICTED ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BASICALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET...EVEN INCLUDING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

OVERALL...HAVE DEPICTED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO SIX INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES
SHOULD OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW WILL
DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IF/AS NEEDED.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

AN UPR TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE SOUTH FRI MORNING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVR THE SRN MTNS...SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE NAM IS DRY FRI AFTERNOON ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

ON SAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WL TAKE PLACE OVR THE STATE AND WL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS AND DRY WX. HIGHS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
AVERAGE. ON SUN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE THRU THE NW FLOW
ALOFT BUT THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. HIGHS ON SUN
SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND AROUND 5 ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

ON MON AN UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE STATE BUT AN
APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
AREA AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUE THAT DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA...SENDING A
FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC...BREEZY W TO
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER AS THE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS. MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK DRY ON TUE...BUT THERE COULD BE SHOWERS OVR SOME OF
THE MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WL BE QUITE WARM ON TUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE SERN
PLAINS AND AROUND 10 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

FOR WED THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND COOLER TEMPS. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT FOR WED...KEEPING THE
UPR TROF FARTHER EAST WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVR THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. THUS THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COS THIS
AFTERNOON...DECREASING DURING EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF COS ON E SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK. VFR
EXPECTED BY MID EVENING.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR. VFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

KALS WILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES BY LATER IN THE EVENING.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS FORMED BEHIND IT AND IS TRACKING SOUTH. FOR
THE PLAINS...THIS MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT OF SNOW TODAY AS DRIER
MOVES IN BEHIND. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MOST
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-25. SNOW/SLUSH ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL
BE DIFFICULT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXCEPT WHERE HEAVY SNOW
PERSISTS FOR A WHILE.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVE SOUTH IN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THESE WINDS TURNING
TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER WHERE 3 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. FOR THE DENVER METRO AREA...UP
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACE IN SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA.

SNOW WILL DECREASE AND END THIS EVENING AS THE DRIES AND
STABILIZES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

MRMS SHOWS PCPN HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THE PAST HOUR OR SO
FM CYS TO FORT COLLINS. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER THEN SNOW MAY
DVLP OVER THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z TO 15Z. MEANWHILE IN THE LAST
HOUR THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOW CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND ARE
TRENDING TO THE WETTER GFS. AMAZINGLY JUST A FEW HOURS AGO THE HRRR
AND RAP WERE SHOWING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND SW OF
DENVER OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...NOW THEY ARE SHOWING FROM 8 TO 12
INCHES WITH UP TO 8 INCHES FROM BOULDER TO SOUTH TO GOLDEN. AT
THIS POINT WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
MAKING MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY AS COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ON THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL DOWNRIGHT BRISK AT TIMES.

BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF FINE SPRING
WEATHER WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING NORTHERN COLORADO. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO MOVE OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT RECENTLY PUSHED THROUGH WITH SNOW BEHIND IT. PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
0100Z AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS. DUE TO THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND NOT BEING HEAVY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON PAVED SURFACES. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MINOR SLUSH ON THE RUNWAYS IF HEAVY SNOW DOES FORM. AT
THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF DENVER...NOT KDEN. KDEN MAY BE SNOW
FREE AFTER 1700-1800Z...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z. VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 1 MILE UNDER
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL
START TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

840 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ALONG AND EAST OF S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. /HODANISH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT WITH INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 16Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN OVER AND NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...WITH IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

625 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

BAND OF SNOW HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED FROM FORT COLLINS TO GREELEY
AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AS CDFNT MOVES IN. IF THIS BAND HOLDS UP
SNOW COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 8 AN AND 9 AM. STILL THINK
MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT BUT COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH
ON GRASSY SURFACES. LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE COMPLETELY FLIP
FLOPPED FROM THERE SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT AND NOW SUPPORT THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER THEY SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA WITH HEAVIER SNOW STILL STAYING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
DIA. FOR EXAMPLE THEY SHOW 6 INCHES AT BJC WITH 4 INCHES AT APA
AND ONLY AN INCH AT DIA.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

CONFIDENCE IN TODAY`S FCST IS ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. THERE IS
A DISTURBANCE IN NNW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NERN CO. THESE ARE THE ONLY TWO THINGS I`M SURE ABOUT.

THE TIMING OF PCPN AND HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR IS A WHOLE ANOTHER
MATTER. THE HRRR AND RAP BASICALLY HAVE PCPN ENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING PCPN THRU ABOUT 21Z IN
THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70 AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK. THIS IS DUE TO THEM
BRINGING IN A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS BY 18Z WHICH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD BY AFTN. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS 6 HOURS
SLOWER WITH ENDING PCPN AS IT DOES NOT SHOW THIS DRIER AIR MOVING
IN UNTIL AROUND 00Z. AS A RESULT IT HAS MUCH MORE PCPN IN AND NR
THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME PERIOD WITH CLOSE TO ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS TO THE WEST AND SW OF DENVER. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LIGHTER PCPN. FOR NOW WILL SCALE BACK PCPN AMOUNTS SOME FM
PREVIOUS FCST AND KEEP HIGHER POPS IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. IF THE
HRRR AND RAP ARE CORRECT THEN MY TIMING OF ENDING PCPN MAY END UP
BEING 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO LATE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR THIS
AFTN IS HIGHS ACROSS NERN CO AS READINGS COULD END UP BEING WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO PCPN ENDING BY EARLY AFTN. THUS WILL BUMP
THEM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR THIS EVENING PCPN SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY IN THE MTNS...SRN
FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK. OVERNIGHT THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FCST AS THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BRIEF
SURGE OVERNIGHT WHICH ENHANCES UPSLOPE BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SPEADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. AT
THIS POINT WILL JUST KEEP IN LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT BY 15Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING OF 15 TO 25 MPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. AS
FOR SNOW CHANCES THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS MENTIONED ABV. AT
THIS TIME BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF DIA IN THE 15Z TO 21Z PERIOD. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SNOW
CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING BY 18Z WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 00Z WITH NO SNOW
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WNW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS AND LOWER CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1031 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO NERN NJ AND ALONG THE CT COAST AT 220Z PER
RADAR. NWLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS. LAST REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WERE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE S FORK. BEST CHC FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN COME
TOWARDS MRNG WHEN MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE RR QUAD OF
THE JET APPROACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT AND
TRAVELS NE ALONG THE FRONT. A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO KEEP IN LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS
FAR NORTH AND WEST. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO END UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PASSING EITHER OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY AFTER THE LOW CENTER`S PASSAGE...COUPLED
WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE NIGHT
SATURDAY.

REGARDING WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR VERY LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS BEING A VERY LATE 3RD PERIOD TO 4TH PERIOD
EVENT...AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR NOW. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME DOUBTS THAT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
AREAS AND LONG ISLAND SEE GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...THIS IS AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH.

AS FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUNDAY...IT BECOMES LIKELY LATE AT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF BY NOONTIME
ON SUNDAY...BUT FOR ALL LOCATIONS IT LIKELY STARTS AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...RANGING TO A LIGHT COATING TO
NO ACCUMULATION OVER LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NJ.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S USING A NAM12/MAV/MET MOS BLEND. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX MEANDERING ABOUT HUDSON BAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST WITH RIDGING OUT WEST.

POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES SUN
NIGHT/MON. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE E IS REINFORCED MON INTO TUE. RIDGING BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK FOR WED...BUT YET ANOTHER DEEPENING ERN TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO
TYPICAL TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

GUSTY WINDS SUN EVE WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WEAK WAA COMMENCES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUN NIGHT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA ON MON WITH NRN ZONES
HAVING THE BEST CHC FOR POSSIBLE MINOR AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THE RECENT WARM WEATHER COULD CONFINE ACCUMS MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES. EARLY MON MORNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. GUSTY SW WINDS MON WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE LATE MON
NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CAA DEVELOPS. GUSTY NLY WINDS
CONTINUE ON TUE WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SERN CANADA DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST.

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY
MIDNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING...AND TRACKS SE OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY.

SHRA/TSRA HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDS IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...CONDS EXPECTED TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR
IN LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT KISP/KGON...AND POSSIBLY KJFK/KBDR/KHPN. -RA ENDING
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS TO VFR SAT AFTERNOON FOR W TO E.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH 04-06Z AFTER
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIKELY
BECOMING MORE N/NE LESS THAN 10 KT TOWARDS DAY BREAK
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY VEERING SE AND THEN S/SW THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP SAT AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...COLD FROPA ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF SQUALL OF HEAVY
RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS...POSSIBLY THUNDER. STRONG NW
WINDS 30G45-50KT AFTER FROPA. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...A COATING AT NY/NJ AND LI
TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. STRONG NW WINDS 30G45KT IN THE MORNING...
DIMINISHING TO 20-25G35KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SNOW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING RAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EXPECTED. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR.

.MARINE...
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVY WITH SHWRS COMING THRU AND THE FRONT
ON THE DOORSTEP. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
PRIMARILY DUE TO A LINGERING SEA SWELL. WINDS THEN PICK UP LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE WIND WATCH.
THINKING IS THAT THE OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING THIS...BUT WILL KEEP ALL WATERS UNDER THE WATCH LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...AND THIS BEING A VERY LATE
3RD PERIOD START TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...AT LEAST GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD BE REALIZED.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVSY LEVELS RATHER QUICKLY SUN
EVE...BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN MON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HIGH
PRES TO THE S. SCA IS THEN POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS.
SUB-ADVSY CONDS RETURN FOR MOST OF WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24/JMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

627 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH, WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING TO OUR
EAST. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND ONE DIVING
TOWARD OUR AREA, STRENGTHENING AS THEY DO SO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

DEEP S-SWLY RETURN FLOW IN BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL KEEP US IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD PATTERN. FORECAST
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S ARE
ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WINDS).

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 MPH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 10-15
MPH FARTHER INLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS IS LOCATED OUT TO
OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE TO MAINTAIN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN PA. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE,
PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND RAP, SHOWS THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY PROGRESS THRU OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
POPS WERE LOWERED BOTH WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UPDATES DUE
TO THE TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS FOR A MAINLY DRY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NERN PA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS TO BE OVERHEAD AT
THE START THE DAY. RH CROSS SECTIONS FROM A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.
ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PUTS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL THE
ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN IF WE DON`T FULLY DESTABILIZE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ,
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE ALONG A LINE
WITH STRONG SHEAR THE DRIVING FORCE. SHERBS PARAMETER VALUES FROM
THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE ABOVE 1 ACROSS THE DE VALLEY AND COASTAL PLAIN
AT 18Z AND 21Z...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN THIS HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SETUP.
SPC D2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

S-SW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OFF THE 12Z GFS VERIFY, WE WOULD NEED A WIND ADVISORY FROM PHILA
SOUTH AND EAST AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS TENDS TO BE TOO HIGH WITH THE WIND FIELD
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DEEP
THE MIXING WILL BECOME IF THE MORNING STRATUS HANGS ON LATER INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED, WITH VERY STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AND EVEN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS TO OUR EAST SATURDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES COULD
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
COULD CREATE RAINFALL THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ONE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WHILE THE
OTHER DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA. AS THE FIRST ONE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA, IT MAY BRING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SECOND
DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA, IT WILL PULL A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO FRONTS SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WE ONLY HAVE ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH AS WARM AS IT`S BEEN, IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH SNOW TO STICK, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST 40 TO 50 MPH,
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS, LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

THE LOW WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE GFS. BUT THEY BOTH AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS RAIN, BUT AS THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO WE HAVE
INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOES A BIT UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED
DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS.
WITH AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS,
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...VFR. SLY WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THRU 21Z BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNSET.

SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CIGS LOWERING
LATE THIS EVENING TO MVFR AND TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WE WERE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THESE LOW CLOUDS THAN THE LAMP/NAM GUIDANCE.

IFR WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE MORNING AS STRATUS
MIXES OUT. SWLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY (25-30 KT). THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA, WHICH MAY LOWER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 20-25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY LOWER CONDITIONS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 40-50 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. SNOW POSSIBLE LATE AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT BUT GUSTS WILL WILL STILL BE AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT.

SWLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
SEE A REPEAT OF WHAT HAPPENED TODAY WITH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING ON LAND POSSIBLY REACHING THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY AND THUS DO NOT THINK
MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT 35 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, HOWEVER,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING. COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE
EVENING, SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
NEAR STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH A
RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY, POSSIBLY NEAR
GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF LULL
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, POSSIBLY GALE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS DROPPING INTO 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING OF THE FUELS TAKES PLACE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1030 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE SO HAVE REMOVED
EVENING POPS ALG THE COAST. STORMS GOT A BOOST AS THEY INTERACTED
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ESP IN BREVARD COUNTY. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AND CAUSED A WEATHER
DELAY/POSTPONEMENT OF THE AIR SHOW THIS EVE AT MLB.

HAVE ADDED A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF ORLANDO
(LAKE/SEMINOLE/VOLUSIA) AS CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH FL
SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. HRRR MODEL SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THRU SUNRISE AND PASS
OFFSHORE NE FL. SO DO NOT EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT IN
OUR FA.

WARM TONIGHT WITH A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE AND LIKELIHOOD OF LATE NIGHT
LOW CLOUDS. BLYR WINDS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO STRONG FOR FOG.

SAT (PREVIOUS)...PRECIP WILL BE ENCROACHING UPON THE NRN CWA BY
SUNRISE WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER-SPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT MAXES OVER THE NORTH TO THE L-M80S...WHILE
GUSTY SW FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUNSHINE PUSHES TEMPS WELL INTO THE
U80S TO THE SOUTH. PER SPC SWODY2...INCREASING WIND FIELDS/SFC-LOW
LEVEL CONVG...AIDED BY THE APPROACHING FRONT...MAY PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO ISOLD SVR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...AFTER ABOUT 08Z/09Z EXPECT ONSET OF IFR STRATUS WITH
NOCTURNAL STRATIFICATION/INCREASE IN WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TO
PRODUCE LLWS CONDS FROM KISM-KMCO-KMLB NEWD THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS (LEE/DAB) AFTER
SUNRISE WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS NORTH OF MLB THRU THE AFTN.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SAT...SOME TIGHTENING OF THE LCL PGRAD COUPLED
WITH NOCTURNAL WIND INCREASE WILL PUSH WINDS UP TO NEAR 20KT WELL
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT. WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINE BEYOND 20NM. SW WINDS AROUND 15KT SAT
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING TS WITH STRONG GUSTS/FQT
LTG PSBL. SEAS REMAIN 3FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE...HIGHER
NEAR STORMS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 85 58 71 / 20 60 40 10
MCO 71 84 62 77 / 10 60 40 10
MLB 72 89 65 74 / 20 50 40 20
VRB 73 88 68 75 / 20 40 40 30
LEE 72 81 58 76 / 10 60 30 10
SFB 72 84 62 74 / 10 60 30 10
ORL 72 83 63 76 / 10 60 40 10
FPR 72 89 68 75 / 20 30 40 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

KELLY/PENDERGRAST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

428 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A trough was extended across the central/western US with a shortwave
embedded in the through across the central Plains to mid-
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A slow moving cold front was
associated with this system and the front will push into the lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. A complex of storms has been pushing
across AL/GA today with the stronger storms across southern
Alabama. This is the area on the northern side of the better CAPE
(around 1000 J/kg) and the southern side of the better shear.
While CAPE values will be decent across the western extent of the
CWA, the area will be slightly less favorable than further
westward. Still the potential for severe storms though into this
evening, particularly across the western portion of the CWA. While
some models have struggled with depicting the showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, the HRRR consistently showed the
showers and thunderstorms pushing into the CWA this afternoon.
Have trended the forecast for the evening towards the HRRR and
thus increased PoPs across the western half of the CWA through
this evening. Some of this activity may linger into tonight, but
then expect a lull before another round moves into SE Alabama late
tonight.

Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees
above normal.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Deep moist southwest flow aloft through Friday night will gradually
flatten becoming zonal by Saturday night as the axis of the broad
trough swings to our east. The associated cold front entering the
Lower Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period will
slowly translate eastward across our CWA Friday night through midday
Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the front with some containing very heavy rainfall. A
surface low is expected to develop along the boundary in the
northern Gulf Friday and lift northeastward across the Florida
Panhandle. This will further enhance convection with heavy rains
and we have issued a flash flood watch for all but the SE Big Bend
and a few of our southeast Georgia counties. The watch is in
effect through 8 am Saturday as we expect widespread QPF amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts between 5 and 6 inches.

In addition to the flash flood threat, we still have the potential
for severe weather with the greatest threat during the Friday to
Friday night time frame. SPC has a portion of western zones
highlighted in the slight risk through tonight and all but our SE
Big bend zones for Friday/Friday night. The greatest threat
continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds but large hail and
isolated tornados are also possible. The cold front is expected to
be roughly along a line from near Albany to Apalachicola around
daybreak Saturday with a marginal risk for severe weather along and
to the east of there. The cold front is expected to clear all
zones by noon or shortly thereafter.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much drier airmass
will filter in through Monday. A dry cold front will drop down from
the north bringing a re-enforcement of drier air on Tuesday that will
continue at least into the middle of the week. A stronger cold front
may arrive late Wednesday or Thursday bringing with it the next
chance for rain. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] MVFR to VFR conditions are across the TAF sites
this afternoon. Cig heights will deteriorate overnight with LIFR
to IFR cigs by the morning. Showers and thunderstorms will push
into the DHN area today and push eastward. At this point, the
chances are too low to mention in the eastern TAFs as the storms
may not persist that long. Winds are gusting 18-28kts this
afternoon as stronger winds above the surface have mixed down, but
winds should weaken late this afternoon into the evening.

.Marine...

Moderate southerly winds will persist through Friday night before
a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday. Marginal exercise
caution conditions are possible at times through Friday,
especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will develop on
Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible from Friday night through Saturday night, mainly across
the western waters.

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns. A soaking rain is expected by
Friday if not sooner. Drier air will move in on Saturday and remain
in place for a few days, but is not expected to reach the threshold
for Red Flag criteria.

.Hydrology...

Current conditions across the region show above normal stream flows
in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the Suwannee.
Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola,
Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.

Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight through the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due to
the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists for
widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated
heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest
guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the
Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would
suggest at least that the most impactful river flooding would be
limited to areas already in flood.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through
Saturday morning.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 68 79 68 78 47 / 40 100 100 50 10
Panama City 70 75 66 73 51 / 40 100 100 40 10
Dothan 68 74 61 73 44 / 70 100 80 10 0
Albany 68 76 63 73 44 / 40 100 100 20 0
Valdosta 67 80 68 77 46 / 30 100 100 60 10
Cross City 68 82 72 79 49 / 20 40 90 70 10
Apalachicola 70 74 69 75 52 / 20 100 100 50 10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/MCDERMOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

1042 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.Update...

Differences exist between the hi-res models this morning in how
they handle the precipitation across Alabama today. HRRR has been
consistent over the past few runs in bringing showers and
thunderstorms further eastward than initially expected this
afternoon. Given this, have increased PoPs a bit mainly from
Tallahassee and westward for this afternoon. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track.

.Marine...

While the winds are on track across the marine area this morning,
the seas were slightly higher than forecast across the western
areas and thus increased wave heights for this morning slightly.
Also increased the PoPs to slight chance to chance for this
afternoon across the western marine area.

Moderate southerly winds are forecast to persist through Friday
night before a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday.
Marginal exercise caution conditions are possible at times through
Friday, especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will
develop on Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday.

.Prev Discussion [651 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an area of high
pressure across the Southeast, but for an area of deep moist
convection and an associated outflow boundary along the Mississippi
River. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a positive-tilt
trough from the Central Plains to southern CA. The global models
forecast little movement of the upper trough today, and only a slow
southeastward motion of the surface cold front, which will still be
west of the Mississippi River by late afternoon. Given our region`s
distance from the front (and the stronger synoptic scale forcing),
the ascent today will be rather weak but persistent, mainly across
southeast AL and the FL Panhandle. The consensus of MOS guidance and
CAMs indicate that the lift and moisture will not be sufficient for
widespread rain this afternoon, and the forecast PoPs will range
from 40% west and north of Dothan, to less than 20% from Tallahassee
east and southward. Temperatures will be warmer than average, in the
lower to mid 80s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
An active period of weather is on tap beginning tonight and
continuing through early Saturday. Aforementioned positively
tilted trough will make very slow eastward progress through
Friday, before pushing east of the region on Saturday. The
associated front will also move slowly, with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms developing out in front. While a few
thunderstorms will be possible this evening across SE Alabama and
the Panhandle, forcing for ascent will remain weak until later in
the night. More widespread convection is expected to move in from
the west by sunrise on Friday. Initially steep lapse rates and
strong deep layer shear late tonight and early Friday will support
a few strong to severe storms, with hail and damaging winds being
the primary threats. By Friday afternoon into Friday night, the
low-level jet is forecast to strengthen, which may add a threat
for isolated tornadoes. Overall, confidence is low in how this
event will unfold, as there will likely be several rounds of
convection, with each round influencing how the next round
evolves. However, given the available shear, moisture, and
instability, there is plenty of support for the Slight Risk from
SPC for days 1 and 2.

The surface front will exit the area during the day on Saturday,
with a 12z position stretching roughly from Valdosta to
Tallahassee to Apalachicola.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Following Saturday`s frontal passage, guidance is in good
agreement on mostly dry weather through much of the extended, with
west to northwest flow aloft. The relatively dry atmosphere will
allow morning temperatures to dip into the upper 40s, while the
full afternoon sun will push high temperatures well into the 70s.
A front will reinforce this airmass on Tuesday. However, no precip
is expected with this system at the moment.

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] As of 11z a band of SHRA/TSRA was moving ENE
at 25 KT across southwest AL. The latest CAMs are split as to
whether or not this rain reaches KDHN by late morning, but we are
opting with the majority of CAMs and forecasting it to just miss
KDHN to the N. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
region today, outside of isolated TSRA this afternoon. There is a
strong signal in the NWP guidance/MOS that IFR cigs/Vis will
develop across most of the area tonight, so we have low-end MVFR
cigs/Vis at most sites. These values may trend lower in subsequent
forecast packages. We expect SHRA and TSRA to develop across
southeast AL and the FL Panhandle toward daybreak Friday.

.Fire Weather...
No concerns.

.Hydrology...
Current conditions across the region show above normal stream
flows in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the
Suwannee. Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee,
Apalachicola, Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.

Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight into the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due
to the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists
for widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with
isolated heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of
the latest guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most
likely in the Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia,
which would suggest at least that the most impactful river
flooding would be limited to areas already in flood.

With the heavier amounts on Friday, and the already wet conditions
across the area, it`s possible that a flash flood watch will be
needed at some point. However, with the heaviest rain arriving
Friday, will hold off on a watch until this afternoon.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 81 70 79 67 76 / 30 30 80 70 50
Panama City 75 69 73 64 71 / 30 50 90 80 40
Dothan 82 69 74 59 71 / 40 70 90 70 10
Albany 83 68 76 61 73 / 30 50 90 70 20
Valdosta 84 67 80 66 75 / 20 20 70 70 60
Cross City 83 68 82 70 77 / 0 20 30 60 70
Apalachicola 75 69 74 67 73 / 20 30 70 80 60

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...FIEUX
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...CAMP/FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/CAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

920 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...

AREA MORNING RAOBS SHOW DISPARITY IN MEAN MOISTURE BTWN TBW (1.17")
AND XMR (1.39") MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT TBW IS QUITE A BIT DRIER
(AND WARMER) IN THE H90-H60 LAYER. WRLY LOW-MID LVL WIND TRAJECTORY
SHOULD ADVECT SOME OF THIS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT EWD TODAY...WHICH
WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE CIN/CAPPING AND INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH
THE 2KM WRF-ARW AND 3KM HRRR SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
ECM/MAV(GFS-BASED) MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS AT 10 INLAND/20 COASTAL
FOR TODAY WHILE THE MET (NAM-BASED) IS 20 INLAND/30 COAST. BASED ON
THIS...PLAN TO EXPAND PRECIP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST OF -95 (BUT STILL
EAST OF GREATER ORL-SFB) AND NUDGE POPS UP TO 30 AROUND/EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION IN S-SSE
FLOW.

.AVIATION...VFR. CONVECTIVE CU CIGS ABV BKN030 WITH ISOLD MVFR SHRA
DAB-MLB-VRB...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE INVOF VRB-SUA. EXPECT PRECIP TO
STAY EAST OF SFB-ORL-MCO.

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE LCL ATLC WATERS
WILL KEEP A MODERATE SE TO SSE BREEZE OF 12-16KT IN PLACE. SEAS
REMAIN 3-4FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. CAUTIONARY STMT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE 20-60NM LEGS.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WEITLICH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

FRIDAY...LOW LVL SSW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE LOW
LVLS BELOW 850 MBS ON FRIDAY WITH AIRMASS INITIALLY QUITE DRY WITH
PWAT VALUES FROM 1.1-1.2 INCHES FORECAST AT 12Z. MODEST MOISTENING
THROUGH THE DAY MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MAINLY ERN SECTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM MENTION FOR
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
ATLC WITH SW-W STEERING WINDS AT THE MID LVLS. APPEARS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS NRN SECTIONS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE EVENING POPS IN THE FCST. LOWS WILL BE WARM
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE BIG
BEND IN THE MORNING TO CENTRAL FL BY LATE SAT EVENING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARD NRN AREAS IN
THE MORNING AND REACH SRN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL WSW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY
OFFSHORE. WITH A DELAY IN CONVECTION REACHING SRN AREAS BY LATER IN
THE DAY EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S FROM VERO AND
KENANSVILLE SOUTH TO OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S NRN AREAS. H8-H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS WITH MID LVL
TEMPS TO -9 TO -10 C AT H5 WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO SRN AREAS INTO SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING INTO S FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S...BUT SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM LEESBURG TO LAKE
GEORGE.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING COOLER READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S FOR MARTIN COUNTY.

MON-THU...A WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST AND BE
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER S/W TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC INTO MID WEEK WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY BEING REINFORCED BY STRONGER NE/E FLOW TUE AFTN
INTO WED. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL...IN THE 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW NEXT FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP THU MAINLY DRY WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THU NIGHT.

.AVIATION...THRU 01/12
SFC WINDS: THRU 31/14Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE E/SE 5-10KTS...E OF KMLB-
KOBE SE 10-15KTS. BTWN 31/14Z-01/02Z...S/SE 8-13KTS XCPT S/SW 7-
10KTS AT KLEE. AFT 01/02Z...S/SW 4-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 31/12Z...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD IFR SHRAS. BTWN
31/12Z-31/18Z...E OF KVRB-KOBE SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 31/18Z-
01/02Z SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES.

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...CANAVERAL BUOYS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SVRL HRS WITH WINDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGES...SEAS
RUNNING 4-6FT. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THRU SUNSET AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC RETREATS SEAWARD AND MAINTAINS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH E/SE BREEZE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY AFT
SUNSET AS A NEW FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NW GOMEX
AND ERODES THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE... WINDS BCMG A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-
5FT OFFSHORE. WITH CONDITIONS JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND LITTLE
TO INDICATE FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE LCL PGRAD...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...BUT CAUTION WILL BE ADVISED AREAWIDE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL VEER TO SW ON SATURDAY MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHEST
SEAS OFFSHORE TO 4-5 FT. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ELEVATING SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS. FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE MONDAY AND
INCREASE AGAIN FOR MID WEEK A REINFORCING SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS IS
EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID
ATLC.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 67 87 69 / 20 10 20 20
MCO 88 67 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
MLB 84 70 87 73 / 20 10 20 20
VRB 85 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 87 67 88 72 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 86 68 90 71 / 20 10 20 10
ORL 87 67 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
FPR 85 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 20

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

742 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS
AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG MERIDIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT OVER MONTANA/IDAHO...FEEDING ENERGY BOTH
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO INTO FRACTURED TROUGH ENERGY
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MULTIPLE IMPULSES ARE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SOUTHWEST
TROUGH...SUPPORTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
OHIO/TN VALLEYS TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES.

A FAST ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF ALL THE CONVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INVADING OUR SKIES THIS
MORNING.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY POCKETS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A
DEEP SPRING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL
BE THIS AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE.

HOWEVER...CURRENTLY THE REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED AT THE SURFACE BY
A LARGE AREA OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IS KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR ARE CLEAR WITH CLOUDS MAINLY OF THE HIGH
LEVEL VARIETY.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET/BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MOST OF THE WEATHER
"ACTION" WILL BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

TODAY... QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE A SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ONSHORE
OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS
AFTER 17Z. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOP AND MAKE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS...CONDITIONS TO DO APPEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG IT. MOISTURE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS WILL FAVOR A
SUPPRESSIVE COLUMN WITHIN A ZONE OF NVA BEHIND A WEAK DEPARTING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. NORMALLY AGGRESSIVE CAM GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE EVEN HAVING
ISSUES SUPPORTING SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN FEW VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE BELOW 10% AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY... QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
(TO OUR NORTH) LOOKS TO BECOME ENERGIZED BY A SERIES OF PASSING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES...WITH RAIN/CONVECTION BLOSSOMING FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SHOW MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS WE WAIT FOR THE EVENTUAL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TO DRIVE THIS FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INCLEMENT WEATHER INTO THE PENINSULA. SO...PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE...NEUTRAL COLUMN IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPRESSION...AND A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF THE I-
75 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN CAM
GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AND INHERITED FORECAST AROUND 30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR INTERIOR ZONES STILL SEEMS APPROPRIATE. HEADING
BACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...RAIN CHANCES TAPER TO LESS
THAN 10% FOR THE BEACHES. DOES LOOK TO BE A CLOSE CALL ON SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...HOWEVER
ENSEMBLE APPROACH SUGGESTS FRONTAL FOCUS AND DEEP LAYER QG FORCING
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING. FOR CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY MORNING.

ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
FOG GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SREF ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
TIME...AND AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD...THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET LATE IN THE SEASON FOR SEAFOG AS
THE SHELF WATERS BEGIN TO WARM UP...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
DEWPOINT SURGE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-FOG OVER
COOLER SST POCKETS. LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE AND LATEST SPORT SST
ANALYSIS WOULD TEND TO SIDE WITH THE CONCLUSION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL A BIT SHORT OF SEA-FOG THRESHOLDS. WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG TO
THE LAND GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND PATCHY
FOG TO THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...BUT STOP
SHORT OF PREDICTION DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND ACROSS BAJA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
CREEPS TOWARD FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH A
DRIER COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC. ON MONDAY ROBUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE STATE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS RENOURISHES THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLING IN
BEHIND. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS ALREADY MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
MID-WEST BRINING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN AROUND KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER
ANY LIGHT FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO
FRIDAY AS FLOW MAKES IT WAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

FOG POTENTIAL..AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 70 85 72 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 86 69 87 71 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 87 68 89 71 / 10 0 20 10
SRQ 79 69 79 72 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 85 67 86 71 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 81 71 83 73 / 0 0 10 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG MERIDIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT OVER MONTANA/IDAHO...FEEDING ENERGY BOTH
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO INTO FRACTURED TROUGH ENERGY
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MULTIPLE IMPULSES ARE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SOUTHWEST
TROUGH...SUPPORTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
OHIO/TN VALLEYS TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET/BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MOST OF THE WEATHER
"ACTION" WILL BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND ACROSS BAJA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
CREEPS TOWARD FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH A
DRIER COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC. ON MONDAY ROBUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE STATE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS RENOURISHES THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLING IN
BEHIND. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS ALREADY MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
MID-WEST BRINING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN AROUND KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER
ANY LIGHT FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO
FRIDAY AS FLOW MAKES IT WAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

FOG POTENTIAL..AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1006 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
AND CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS THE H85 JET WILL HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THE STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP BUT BASED ON PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY THE THREAT IS TOO LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. HIGH SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INDICATES A
CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT BELIEVE THE
THREAT IS LOW BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR AND HRRR PLUS PREVIOUS
CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS NORTH. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW/W ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A
CHILLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENTLY FORECASTING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH A 40 KT LLJ DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY. THERE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z...WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM S/SW TO W/NW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS CHARLESTON SC

938 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE HEAVIEST STORMS HAVE NOW PUSHED OFFSHORE. INSTABILITY HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED...BUT ISOLATED...EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. RAP INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES GOING NEGATIVE...AS LOW AS -1 TO -1.5C BY 1-2
AM. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE--
UPWARDS OF 50-60 KT--WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTMS REDEVELOP LATE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
RIGHT NOW...THE BULK OF ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16.

CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH THE
COLD FRONT LIKELY SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
ONGOING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS
IMPROVED AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL LINGER
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY AT LEAST MID DAY AND THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN WORK IN LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. POPS FOR LAND AREAS
COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS DRY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS
TURN MORE OUT OF THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...BUT CLEARING SHOULD FINALLY TAKE PLACE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP DRY
AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...THEN BACK TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE UPPER
RIDGING PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RISK FOR TSTMS HAS ENDED AT THE TERMINALS AS THE MAIN LINE HAS
MOVED EAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WILL KEEP CIGS/VSBYS NO LOWER THAN MVFR. ACTIVITY
WILL END AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY MID-
MORNING SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF STRONG
TSTMS EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD STABILIZE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS TIPPING BACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE BACK TO 10-15 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
15-20 KT LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT NEARSHORE...4-5 FT
OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL THEN LIKELY BE A DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
COLD ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME/ALL OF
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

927 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. RAP INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES GOING NEGATIVE...AS LOW AS -1 TO -1.5C BY 1-2
AM. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE--
UPWARDS OF 50-60 KT--WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTMS REDEVELOP LATE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR.
RIGHT NOW...THE BULK OF ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORDIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16.

CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

350 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH GREATEST UPPER LIFT APPEARS
TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES OUT OF GA
INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND
STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. FRONT TO OUR WEST TO ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH DUE TO A
SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE GENERALLY TO OUR WEST...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE CSRA...AGS/DNL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT DIFFICULT SO WILL USE
VCSH FOR NOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME LLWS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BY ONGOING AROUND SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS
TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

224 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH BEST S/W ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MOVE MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH
THE BULK THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
SE AL. LATEST HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES OUT OF GA INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IS WILL POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND
FIELD WITH GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY
FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H8. SPC DAY TWO CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250MB JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA
WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE
OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

147 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GA
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN RAIN
SHIELD AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO
ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE CWFA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING. THE ARW/WRF ARE QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE HRRR (WHICH ONLY GOES THROUGH 20Z). THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY A BIT
MORE SHOWERY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE WRF/ARW HAVE A LOT MORE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH SEVERAL BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. IF THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDS...THEN THE HRRR LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...IF BREAKS START TO FORM IN THE STRATUS...SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND THE WRF/ARW SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA REMAINS
FAIRLY FREE OF THE STRATUS PLAGUING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA. THIS MAY GIVE THE ATMOS TIME TO DESTABILIZE A BIT LONGER IN
THIS AREA.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PROGGING THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING
MIDDAY. THE GFS HOLDS IT TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT DO
THINK ANY COLD POOL WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DO THINK THERE IS SOME GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
EXPECTED COULD MUDDY THE WATERS A BIT DECREASING THE POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. DO THINK THERE MAY
BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ROUGHLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAY
DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FIRE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HAVENT SEEN THIS MUCH
UPPER LEVEL/JET DYNAMICS IN A LONG WHILE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY.

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE
STATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND IMPACTS ARE LARGELY
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH GEORGIA AS BEST
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES GA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL GA. ATMOS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE TREND
CONTINUES FOR THIS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN NUDGED
UPWARDS A BIT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP IFR FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO INCREASE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
WITH A LULL BETWEEN 12-18Z TOMORROW. EXPECT MUCH OF CONVECTION
SOUTH OF KATL AREA BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A PROB30.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 80 70 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 80 70 50
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 80 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 80 60 40
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 70 70 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 80 70 40
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 60 50 70 60
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 80 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 80 70 50
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 40 40 70 70

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...ATWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1204 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GA
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN RAIN
SHIELD AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO
ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
12Z UPDATE...

TIMING FOR THUNDER AT ATL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL LOOKS GOOD AT AROUND 20Z. CIGS HAVE REMAINED MVFR THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THEM INTO INCREASE TO ABOVE 3KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SW SIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 70 80 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 70 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 70 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 70 60 30
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 60 80 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 70 60 30
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 50 60 80 70
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 70 50 20
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 70 80 40
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 30 40 80 90

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1100 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VIGOROUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS
MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THE WEAK/MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH BEST S/W ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MOVE MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC LATE TODAY. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES OUT OF GA INTO SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME TWEAKS TO POP
GRIDS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
SUN EARLY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IS WILL POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND
FIELD WITH GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY
FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H8. SPC DAY TWO CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250MB JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA
WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE
OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

720 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
TIMING FOR THUNDER AT ATL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE CIGS THIS
MORNING...MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING CIGS TO GO AS LOW...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE 010 SO WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER.
WINDS MAY TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SW SIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...
EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PEACH...
PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

629 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
153 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH
IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB
CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500
FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME
SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON
COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
ARE FORECAST.

MTF

.LONG TERM...
220 PM CDT

SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.

A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR
EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS
WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY
AREAS.

OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO
CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE
LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO
YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY
OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER
AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW.

FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR TAF SITES ARE:

- QUICK END TO SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 KT SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
- PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINAL
SITES AT 2315Z...MARKING AN END TO SHRA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/CIG
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED 290-310 DEG BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WERE GUSTING TO 30 KT ACROSS NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHWEST WI...THOUGH
GUST MAGNITUDES SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCT/BKN ABOVE 4 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL.

ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING...WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH AND BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY. WILL LIKELY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AND BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO GUST 40+ KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.

RATZER

.MARINE...
320 PM CDT

A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A
PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES
THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP
BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-
ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1245 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
1115 AM CDT

THE PRIMARY THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS WELL INTACT AT THIS
POINT...AND THAT IS AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM PERIOD
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.

MULTIPLE EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION...EACH STEERING IN COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(-25C AT 500MB) AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES (7.5 C/KM).
LATEST HAND ANALYSIS INDICATES A 992 MB LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THAT
BY 30-50 MILES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FOCI FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM FRONT IS HUNG UP NEAR THE WISCONSIN STATE
LINE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RACINE AND WAUKEGAN. IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE CWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S. SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED DUE TO THE
BROKEN LOW-BASED CUMULUS OVERHEAD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS.

THE STORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE ROOTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME SIGNS ON RADAR AND SATELLITE OF DEVELOPMENT TRYING
TO GET GOING SOUTH TOWARD KEWANEE AND PEORIA. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
A GRADUAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH CELLS AS THEY
MOVE EAST GIVEN THEY ARE COLLOCATED WITH RAP INDICATED MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG (ML VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG). ALSO A STRONG
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL JET OF 80-100 KT SAMPLED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ASSISTING IN
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. STORM MAGNITUDE AND POSSIBLY EVEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL CAPE AND SLIGHTLY WORKED OVER AREA OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES IN THE PAST HOUR WERE PULSEY IN NATURE INDICATING THAT
EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY THE SHEAR COULD COMPENSATE FOR A
BRIEF LARGE HAIL THREAT.

FURTHER EAST...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...EXISTING OR
DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROPENSITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTY POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
STORMS MOVE OVER A DEEPER MIXED LAYER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
LIMITED PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LOW ARE
PREVENTING MUCH OF A BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND RESPONSE...SO THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ZERO GIVEN
THE LOW MAGNITUDE AND DISCRETE STORM NATURE ANTICIPATED.

MTF/JEE

.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN
TEMP TRENDS WITH FRONT AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED BACK DOOR FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FRIDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SAGGED SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR NORTH. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES APPARENT THIS MORNING...ONE OVER SE MN AND THE OTHER
OVER EASTERN MO...GENERAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THESE
WAVES COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT RANDOM SCTD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SFC LOW OVER IA WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER LATER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL REMAIN VEERED
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE VEERED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND ANTICIPATED MODEST DESTABILIZATION DUE IN PART TO
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ADVECTING IN WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE
MORNING OVER NORTHERN IL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

DESPITE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WEAK SURFACE HEATING...IT APPEARS LIKELY MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 500 J/KG EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA IN NW IN. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK...WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 50-70KT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG SHEAR AND RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
MAY BE SLOW TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS SHEAR COULD
INITIALLY RIP UPDRAFTS APART. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WOULD GENERALLY
TEND TO FAVOR RATHER LIMITED HAIL THREAT TODAY...THOUGH GIVEN THE
WEAK CONVERGENCE STORMS COULD REMAIN MORE CELLULAR WHICH GIVEN THE
SHEAR WOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS
INTENSIFY/MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A MODEST HAIL
THREAT AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH WITH
TIME STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR EASTERN CWA AND POINTS EAST. AS THE LINEAR EVOLUTION
OCCURS LOOK FOR WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO INCREASE A BIT. THE
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND VERY STRONG SHEAR...ALBEIT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY
STRONGER OR WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE TO
OCCUR.

STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY IF NOT VERY SOON AFTER 21Z.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE FLOW COULD TURN NORTHERLY
ENOUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW A LAKE
ENHANCED FRONT TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY SURGE SOUTH DOWN THE
LAKE AND INLAND A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE
A MODEST TEMP DROP IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT...SHOULD A LAKE ENHANCED FRONT INDEED DEVELOP A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPS (INTO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S) WOULD OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
324 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS (AOB -30C AT
500MB) SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING
LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SEE GRAUPEL OR PERHAPS EVEN WET
SNOW FLAKES WITH THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS FRIDAY. SHOWERS END
FRIDAY EVENING AND WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER
#2 WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE A BIT LESS WITH THIS WAVE AND SHOULD FAVOR MORE EASTERN CWA.
ONE OF THE BIGGER STORIES WITH SAT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS OVER 45 MPH)
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
CLIPPER #3 WHICH GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TO HELP MOST AREAS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. AS
CLIPPER MOVES EAST THE COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST FROM THE LOW WILL
DROP ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.
TYPICALLY COLD FRONTS WITH CLIPPERS ARE DRY...BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS
FRONT. QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN RINSE AND REPEAT...

NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING...BUT
STILL QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION.

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TAFS ARE:

- THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THEM THROUGH 20Z
- WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS
- WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER
- IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY DURING THE FRI MORNING RUSH

AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH MULTIPLE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA PRIOR TO 1930Z-2000Z. VISIBILITY AS LOW AS
3/4SM HAS BEEN REPORTED UNDER THESE STORMS SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO
SEE BRIEF EVEN LOWER VISIBILITY THAN INDICATED IN THE TEMPO. LOW
FREEZING LEVELS AND THE NATURE OF THE STORMS ARE FAVORING SMALL
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ONES. THE STORMS WILL BE ROOTED JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. AS THAT PASSES WINDS WILL TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY.

BEHIND THE STORMS...A WINDOW OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGS OVER. THESE WOULD SEEM MOST FAVORED OVER FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST THUS
FAVORING DRAGGING THE COOL AIR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN WISCONSIN
OVER LOCAL AIRPORTS. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. THESE COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY. THE PROBLEM IS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. SO WHILE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THAT AND ITS DURATION /AND THUS HOW LOW THE CLOUD BASES BECOME/
IS ALL QUITE LOW.

MTF

.MARINE...
332 AM CDT

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTEND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE. THIS IS HELPING
TO CREATE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTH
HALF...AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30KT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH HALF. WITH THIS LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
LAKE LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL THEN BECOME MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS THROUGH THIS TIME LIKELY LOCATED OVER AREAS
EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. WITH THE ANTICIPATED LOWER SPEEDS AND
WAVES NEAR WINTHROP/WILMETTE HARBORS...WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH FOR
TODAY...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS NOW EXPECTED. STILL
MONITORING STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH GALES STILL APPEARING
TO BE LIKELY DURING THAT TIME.

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1129 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
1115 AM CDT

MTF/JEE

.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
324 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS THIS
MORNING...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PERSISTENT FORCING THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOL/SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WORKING EAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE RFD
TERMINAL HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF OBSERVING TS IN THE NEAR
TERM. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT TO
INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE LOW
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING FOR A TWO TO
THREE HOUR WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS...AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY TIMING CHANGES AT THIS. THUNDER WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...WITH A SLOW UPWARD TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. DO THINK THE UPWARD TREND COULD BE SLOWER FOR THE
DPA/RFD WITH THESE TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BETTER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING TO TRANSITION TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO HELP SHIFT THEM OVER TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
332 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

634 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE ALOFT...A COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.

SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW...STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER SE MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

EXCELLENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. HRRR SHOWS AND EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE NEAR 00Z. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
A CERTAINTY AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE STORMS MAY EXIT BEFORE OR RIGHT NEAR 00Z. BEST FORCING
IS LOST BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WILL TREND
LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
UNITEDSTATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN INDIANA WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE SECOND PASSING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WEST
WINDS AND ONLY ACCESS TO LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS
GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MID
LEVEL SATURATION WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THUS A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULES OUT...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF
INDIANA...WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME
LOW CHC POPS AT NORTH AND EAST OF INDY...MAINLY DRY POPS
SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON
SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST. THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS DIVERTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW
PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT
WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KBMG...BY ISSUANCE TIME. WILL SEE
CONVECTION LINGER IN THE KBMG AREA UNTIL ABOUT 010100Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND SURFACE GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BY 010200Z. AT THIS TIME...DON/T THINK CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF
INITIAL LINE.

CEILINGS 040-050 EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY
SNEAK INTO KLAF AFTER 010600Z. SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 250-280
DEGREES WILL DIMINISH TO 7-10 KTS BY LATE EVENING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

426 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN INDIANA SHOULD REACH
THE KIND TERMINAL AROUND 312200Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KT OBSERVED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE.

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE LINE...SO MAY LIFT
THE CEILINGS THIS EVENING ABOVE MVFR ON FUTURE UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

DRY SLOT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AHEAD COLD FRONT HAS FILLED IN
QUITE A BIT BUT WILL STILL CARRY A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
PRIOR TO PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR AHEAD OF
IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DESTABILIZING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM KRFD AND KBMI
TO KSTL. MODELS DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY 311900Z THAT MOVE INTO INDIANA AFFECTING KLAF
AND KHUF BY AROUND 20Z THEN KIND AND KBMG AROUND 312100Z WITH ALL
TAF SITES CLEAR OF CONVECTION BY 010000Z. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUD DECKS FROM 2000-3000 FEET PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
WILL KEEP SUCH DECKS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS. QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE DECKS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM CLEARING TO OVERCAST DURING
THE NIGHT THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER DECKS AROUND 02Z- 03Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

141 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS DIG TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS NW ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RADAR SHOWS A WAVE OF PRECIP
EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 50S.

AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...A
FEW DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR SUGGESTS
MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS HAVE REDUCED
POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASED POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL SATURDAY.

MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND BRING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THIS RUN HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

106 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOLER PATTERN AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S/30S AND 40S.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1240 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ARE SOUTH OF US-30 AND WEST OF I-69. COLDER WEATHER
WILL SETTLE IN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FCST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE/SHOWERS
WITHIN LLJ CORE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY 17-18Z LEAVING A
DRY/WINDY EARLY-MID AFTN FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NARROW DRY/WARM
SECTOR LIFTS IN. BULK OF GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWERS/SCT STORMS ACCOMPANYING TRAILING COLD FRONT ON NOSE OF 110
KT MID LVL JET...INTO OUR IN/MI ZONES 19-21Z AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69 21-00Z. SLIGHT/CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS INTO MAINLY OUR INDIANA COUNTIES GIVEN STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND POTENTIAL (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) FOR UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IF MID-UPPER 60 SFC
TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED. SHEAR/BUOYANCY BALANCE OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT
GREAT GIVEN LIMITED SFC HEATING AND ALMOST TOO MUCH SHEAR/FLOW. AS
A RESULT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS (ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE) TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

COMPLICATED NR TERM OWING TO ARCH OF UPSTREAM CONVN DVLPG FM EC
MO THROUGH SW IL WITHIN LL THETA-E BULGE ALG NOSE OF INCREASING
LLJ. BULK OF NR TERM CAMS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH
SUNRISE PRIMARILY THROUGH NW HALF. MEANWHILE SHRA ASSOCD/W WKNG
MCV LIFTING THROUGH SW MI ATTM CONT TO WANE.

BULK OF MORNING ACTIVITY XPCD TO LIFT OUT ACRS WRN PORTIONS BY 14Z
AND DIMINISH THROUGH NW OH BFR NOON. ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO
INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
CROSSING NRN LWR MI. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WRT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR RECOVERY WITHIN CLD CONTAMINATED WARM
SECTOR. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML
STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER...STG 0-6KM SHEAR WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED CAPE WOULD SUGGEST CB GROWTH STRUGGLES.
HWVR ASSUMING RAP TRENDS CORRECT...LG HAIL/ISOLD WIND RISK CAN BE
XPCD OVR WRN INDIANA ZONES LT THIS AFTN IN PROXIMITY TO MODEL
DERIVED AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS PERIOD THAT RUNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THIS VERY COLD AIR AFTER
PASSAGE CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON NIGHTS AFTER PASSAGE TO DROP WELL
DOWN INTO THE 20S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
ANY SNOW OR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. TWO MORE OF THESE CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY...AND THEN THE
NEXT ONE TWO DAYS LATER BY WEDNESDAY. THE TRACKS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW MVFR CIGS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
HIGH MVFR OR LOW VFR BY MID-LATE AFTN AS DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING
ENSUES. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SHOWERS/SCT STORMS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-LATE AFTN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION TRACK NE INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES SOME. WINDS
VEER/DIMINISH MORE WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL TONIGHT WITH LOW (MVFR
FUEL ALT) STRATOCU EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITHIN BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID MORNING AS BNDRY LYR MIXING ENSUES/DEEPENS. WHILE
STILL CONDL...THREAT FOR STG PSBLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN LOOKING
MORE PLAUSIBLE BASED ON MEASURABLE UPSTREAM CLD EROSION. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30KTS WILL PEAK TWD ERLY TO MID AFTN BFR QUICKLY
DIMINSHING THROUGH EVENING.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1033 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

RAIN HAS ENDED AT KIND AND IS QUICKLY DEPARTING VICINITY. MVFR
CLOUD DECK REMAINS SOLID BACK TO ILLINOIS STATE LINE BUT THAT EDGE
IS ADVANCING EAST AS WELL. CURRENT NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS
HOLDING WINDS DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT ONCE LOW CLOUD DECK SCATTERS AND
SUNS BREAK OUT...FULL STRENGTH AND GUSTINESS OF WIND WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AND TO
REACH KIND 22Z- 23Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1007 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER KLAF AROUND THU 21Z...WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRI 01Z. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY BE AROUND MVFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF DETERIORIATION TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DURING STRONGEST CONVECTION.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY
FRI 01Z...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AT
THAT POINT THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WILL BE IN THE 14 TO 18 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
KTS. OF COURSE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

639 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

421 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

VARIABLE FLT CONDS TO START AS DECAYING MCV OVR NW IN LIFTS NE INTO
MI AND SHRA ACRS THE TERMINALS DIMINISH. HWVR INCREASING LL MSTR
FLUX WITHIN STG LLJ WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS OVR SRN IL TO EXPAND NEWD
OVERLAPPING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER INCREASING
PREFNTL MIXING AHD OF SHARP CDFNT WILL SCOUR LWR CIGS OUT TO VFR
W/CONDL THREAT FOR STORMS LT THIS AFTN. LLWS WILL PEAK PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AS HEART OF LLJ TRANSLATES NE AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
THROUGH MID MORNING AS CORRESPONDING SFC GRADIENT PICKS UP W/SWRLY
SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS LIKELY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Mean troughing was over the northern and Central Plains per water
vapor imagery. A few main waves were identified in this trough...one
moving northeast into the Great Lakes, another beginning to turn
southeast out of central South Dakota, and another surging south
out of Manitoba. Some low-mid level moisture was moving across
the area ahead of the second wave and bringing a few showers to
central and eastern Kansas this afternoon. This activity should
slowly dissipate in weaker forcing, lesser moisture, and weakening
diurnal instability. Cold air advection ramps up tonight as a
second cold front pushes in from the second wave. Moisture is
much more limited behind this front but decent mixing depths could
lead to a few sprinkles in eastern areas in the midday to
afternoon hours but doesn`t seem worthy of a mention at this
point. Clearing skies and a weakening gradient should bring decent
temp falls this evening, but may level off some overnight as
mixing increases. Weakening cold air advection and the mixing
brings highs a few to several degrees cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Secondary upper trough axis lifts over the central plains into the
Midwest regions by Friday evening. Operational guidance shows weak
lift behind the cold front during the early evening period with the
12Z ECMWF developing light qpf along the trough axis. Other models
however have consistently kept the better moisture further east.
With the winds weakening and backing to the west after midnight,
areas south of Interstate 70 may become calm as sfc ridge builds to
the southwest. These light winds coupled with clear skies may
develop frost and/or freeze conditions south of Interstate 70
especially with readings in the lower 30s Saturday morning.

The weekend is shaping up to be sunny and warmer as northwest winds
increase during the afternoon between 15 and 20 mph sustained. This
weak cool advection will offset the clear skies with temps holding
into the lower to middle 60s. By Sunday, winds shift back to the
southwest and pick up to near 20 mph sustained in the afternoon.
Drier air advecting into the CWA is expected to drop minimum RH
values down to the lower 20 percent range. Fire danger conditions
are elevated during the afternoon despite most fuels beginning to
green up.

Next cold front is progged to pass through the plains dry on Monday
with only an impact on temps with readings in the 60s for highs.
Upper ridging through mid week spells for warming temps in the 70s
while overnight lows remain above freezing in the upper 30s to lower
40s. Next shortwave trough is pretty well defined on both the GFS
and ECMWF 12Z runs. The positively tilted wave is a bit more
amplified with the ECMWF along the cold front, however still evident
on both models for scattered showers and storms Tuesday evening. Dry
northwest flow aloft prevails Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance
for elevated fire danger conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Aside from lingering MVFR cigs at the Topeka terminals through
19Z, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A secondary
area of cloud cover associated with a trough axis is pushing
southeast out of Nebraska. Current trends show cigs continuing to
scatter out across SC Nebraska and NC Kansas, therefore expect
VFR, although a brief period of MVFR is not out of the question.
Winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon with sustained
WNW 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. Winds will once again
increase by 14Z Friday morning with similar speeds as today.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baerg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave
trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller
scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the
western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas
into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to
western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it
continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level
cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the
potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary
surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing
of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will
not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon.

Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the
afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga
showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to
around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no
indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that
anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating
precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of
an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we
will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers).

For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward,
however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep
winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest
wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the
Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into
Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF-
ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850-
700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope
from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Much of southwest Kansas is now in official drought conditions
(D1/Moderate Drought) per US Drought Monitor...primarily along and
south of the Arkansas River. The forecast period through mid next
week looks dry. The hemispheric jet stream pattern will be split
across North America through the period -- the main polar jet will
reside across southern Canada/northern CONUS as will the storm
track. The southern jet stream will be less active with a closed low
expected to form well off the southern California Coast. As long as
we continue to see a fairly fast, northern jet stream, we will not
see any precipitation (or at least meaningful precipitation) across
western Kansas. A trough will develop across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region early next week, and we should see a backdoor cold
front Monday. This would be a brief shot of cooler air which will
likely be followed be another lee trough Tuesday ahead of the next
synoptic storm system ripping across the Rockies (most likely over
us or to our north). The Tuesday system would be coming out into the
plains amidst a depleted moisture source to our south given such a
strong cold front penetration over the weekend. On the whole,
temperatures will continue to be above average with highs well into
the 70s and lower 80s ahead of fronts (Sunday and Tuesday) with
upper 60s to lower 70s behind fronts.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

There was a band of MVFR ceilings moving south toward GCK and HYS
late this morning, however with increasing insolation, the ceilings
are forecast to scatter out as they approach GCK, HYS, DDC.
Nevertheless, will probably need to include 2 or 3 hours of MVFR at
GCK, HYS and perhaps DDC given the visible satellite trends. Very
near term high resolution models are not showing this MVFR cloud
area very well, so confidence is not high in how far south the MVFR
conditions will reach early in the afternoon before dissolving.
Virga showers will develop later this afternoon along the 850-700mb
frontal zone. We will likely continue VCSH in the TAFs for GCK, DDC,
HYS, with a duration of no more than a couple hours.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 57 31 69 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 26 56 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 30 56 30 67 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 29 58 30 70 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 29 55 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
P28 33 59 33 70 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1226 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING. A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS/SCATTERED SPRINKLES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND MAINTAINED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE REMAINING SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL BRING
A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

CLOUD DECK OF BKN025 MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT 17Z IT
WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THIS WILL ADVANCE INTO KRSL/KGBD
BY 19Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE ON BUT PROBABLY NOT GET MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN KSLN/KHUT. BKN025 STILL PERSISTENT OVER KCNU FROM
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

BY 01Z SKIES AND VSBYS WILL ALL BE VFR WITH DECREASING WIND.
FRIDAY WILL HAVE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25KTS.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KRC

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DRIVE THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
ON SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 66 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 64 33 57 31 / 10 10 0 0
NEWTON 64 35 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 65 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 60 31 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 62 32 56 31 / 10 10 0 0
SALINA 64 34 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 63 33 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 65 38 60 33 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 65 38 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 64 36 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 65 38 60 32 / 10 10 0 0

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KRC
FIRE WEATHER...MWM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Updated short term and aviation sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

For the end of the business week and into the weekend, 500-hPa longwave
ridging is expected upstream. Cool low level air will slide off to the
east and downslope flow will gradually increase in strength/intensity.
In fact, by Sunday, 850-hPa temperatures in the mid teens are expected.
As a result, we should see an upswing in temperatures with 50s on Friday
to 70s on Sunday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will be possible on Sunday, however, the winds don`t look particularly
that strong. Something to watch. A backdoor cold front may work in from
the northeast on Monday and nudge temps down a bit. This will not last
long though, as westerly flow increases Tuesday with a resultant strengthening
warm air advection pattern/lowering lee sfc pressures. Will have to
watch Tuesday again for fire wx concerns. Beyond this, long range models
indicate a Rex block forming across the western United States. Downstream,
a dry NW/N flow pattern prevails across the Great Plains. The net result
is a dry forecast with pleasant temps.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 29 57 31 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 59 26 56 30 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 58 30 56 30 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 62 29 58 30 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 59 29 55 32 / 10 10 0 0
P28 65 33 59 33 / 10 10 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A
COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH
A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR
FORCING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A
HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM
THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS
IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT
EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS
LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD...
DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME
FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS
WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT
THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...WITH LOW CLOUDS HOLDING IN UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY
DIMINISHED TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT THIS POINT. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO THE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA DOWN TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. AT ITS CURRENT
PACE...THESE STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO THE BLUEGRASS BETWEEN 6 AND
7 PM. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAKER LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD
OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED FORECAST
HIGHS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STAVING OFF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. SUBSEQUENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS WEAKENING TREND BETTER. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT WOULD IMAGINE SOME THINNING WOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK VERY
REASONABLE.

HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED THESE DWINDLING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE DAY...AS ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP OFF TO
OUR WEST AND MOVE IN.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED OUT IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WITH A STRONG 850 MB JET ALOFT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE
BLUEGRASS BORDER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF STATEMENT ADDRESSING THESE WINDS AS THEY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. UPDATES
WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR
31 2016

LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN ABSENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO OCCUR.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FLEMINGSBURG
TO EAST OF MONTICELLO...SLOWLY MAKING HEADWAY EAST INTO A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WILL SEE
THESE RISE THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM READINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE SIT IN THE 40S. A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THIS MAIN
MOISTURE BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT WORKS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ACT TO INHIBIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER HINDERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE THE CORE OF THIS MORNING/S UPPER FORCING TRACKING WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN ADVECT IN BEFORE ALL UPPER SUPPORT IS LOST.
THAT BEING SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW HINTS OF A MINOR
PERTURBATION OR TWO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH MAY ACT TO
SUSTAIN MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FARTHER EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS.

LACK OF LIFT WILL LIKELY SPELL A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
70S...OWING TO AN APPROACHING H85 THERMAL RIDGE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME. GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...WILL BE IN
PLACE BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT...WITH H85
LEVEL WINDS OF NEAR OR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS.

FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF NEAR 50
KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VECTOR
ORIENTATION WILL LIKELY BE NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS KEEPING CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE FORM OF
LINEAR SEGMENTS. INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN THAT
SUGGESTED BY NWP IF SUSTAINED LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY DOES
FULLY MATERIALIZE...BUT A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR SHOULD OVERWHELM BUOYANCY PROCESSES
AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE OF LARGE HAIL.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY DOES SUPPORT SOME POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL ROTATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CONVECTION
REMAINS ROOTED TO THE SURFACE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING...SCOURING OUT THE GREATER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AIRMASS WILL NOT COOL CONSIDERABLY AS THE
PARENT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION TO LOW 70S SOUTH AND EAST NEARER THE VIRGINIA
STATE LINE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL. WILL SEE LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
STORMS DEPART BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WITH REPEATING ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP
SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIETLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH
THE COLD FRONT RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND LOW
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST/FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER IMPACT
FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. 850MB TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SITTING FROM -4C
(SOUTHWEST) TO -8C (NORTHEAST). WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SETTING UP A HARD FREEZE FOR
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE
LOW...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PLACES TO REACH THE
LOWER 20S IF THINGS CAN ALIGN RIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING INTO THE AREA.

THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER
INTO THE 50S AFTER THE VERY COLD START. HOWEVER...VALLEYS SHOULD
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS AGAIN FALLING TO
AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL SET UP SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST AS SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY RIDGES MAY
STAY MIXED OVERNIGHT AND NOT DROP OFF AS EASILY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
ANOTHER DIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE SURGE
OF COLD AIR IS STRONGER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WE WOULD LIKELY
BE SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR THE AREA AS TEMPS
FALL WELL UNDER FREEZING AGAIN. GOOD NEWS IS WE MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER AROUND...KEEPING VALLEYS FROM DROPPING OFF AS LOW AND
LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AGAIN WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST TO DEAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT AS VALLEYS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE STRONGEST OF THE
OF THE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...WITH BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE CARVED OUT BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND POTENTIALLY THE
COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...WE MAY KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY EVEN MIXING IN AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. GIVEN THE SETUP...WENT WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR
31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DIFFICULT FORECAST IN PLAY FOR ALL SITES AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR LOZ/SME AROUND 1230-13Z AND
PUSH EAST TOWARD SJS BY ~14-15Z. A LULL IN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
PREVAIL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES THIS EVENING. MAY VERY WELL SEE
DEGRADATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF DRY AIR RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
LIKELY THIS MAY BE. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL COME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS A GOOD BET ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TOWARD MVFR BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY AS STRONGEST
OF THE STORMS PUSH EAST. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LLWS ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT PENDING TIMING OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

909 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.67 INCHES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB WHERE WINDS VEER
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THOSE LEVELS. A
NOTED CAP BETWEEN 925 AND 900 MB WHERE TEMPS WARM FROM 65 UP 68
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE FROM ZERO TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
925. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE
WINDS ARE AT AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 1000 ASL. WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING
LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE WITH WBZ BEING AT 11.62 KFT AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT 13.07 KFT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINING
HIGH AT 85 DEGREES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED AN EXITING 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A 995MB LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA. A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO TEXAS BIG BEND. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5MB
WAS PRESENT FROM BTR TO MOB. AS A RESULT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WERE
OCCURRING. ISOTACH ANALYSIS SHOWED THE NOSE OF 140 KNOT SUB-
TROPICAL JET FROM TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA...FORECAST AREA
IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR NOW. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 850MB SHOWED
A LLJ OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...40 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AT 00Z
SHOWED A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES FROM
NORTHWEST GULF TO WEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
FINALLY...THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM
IOWA TO ARIZONA WITH DISTURBANCES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
OVER ARIZONA. 18

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE AXIS AND LLJ WILL MIGRATE EAST AND YIELDING 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES OVER 400 TO 500 M/S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
FLORIDA PARISHES OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL INCREASE TO 1800 J/KG BY SUNRISE WITH
A SLIGHT LAG BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME SPIN
UPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ERGO...AGREE WITH TOR WATCH THROUGH 9
AM FOR NORTH HALF ZONES EXCLUDING MS COAST. WORKED OVER ATM MAY
YIELD A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD SCATTERED
SOUTH TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FOR NORTH ZONES.

WIND PROFILE BECOMES SOUTHWEST FROM SURF TO 500MB AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING LL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE NORTH ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FOCUS OF THE FRONT
AND SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL YIELD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

POST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE VERY LITTLE PUSH TO THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE IN PLAY. WILL
GO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TOTAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 2 INCHES FALL IN AN HOUR OR SO
OR 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A COUPLE HOURS WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PONDING OF WATER OR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT. 18

LONG TERM...

WEEKEND THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND MOSTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 18

AVIATION...

PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 FEET WILL
BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT AVIATION WISE TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND KBTR...KHDC...AND KMCB THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE..INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND LESS OF THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER DOWN TO AROUND
300 TO 500 FEET BY 06Z...AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE ELEVATED INVERSION DIPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG THAT TRIES TO FORM AFTER 06Z AS WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ONE MILE. THE LOW LIFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TONIGHT. 32

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS DUE TO
CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF
UP TO 8 FEET. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS IS ANTICIPATED. THESE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD FALL FROM EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
RAPIDLY. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 62 74 50 / 90 50 70 50
BTR 82 64 74 52 / 50 60 80 40
ASD 80 68 75 56 / 40 70 90 60
MSY 82 68 75 58 / 40 70 100 50
GPT 78 68 76 56 / 50 70 100 70
PQL 80 68 74 56 / 50 70 100 70

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ056>070.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-071-072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ080>082.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

347 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED AN EXITING 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A 995MB LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA. A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO TEXAS BIG BEND. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5MB
WAS PRESENT FROM BTR TO MOB. AS A RESULT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WERE
OCCURRING. ISOTACH ANALYSIS SHOWED THE NOSE OF 140 KNOT SUB-
TROPICAL JET FROM TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA...FORECAST AREA
IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR NOW. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 850MB SHOWED
A LLJ OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...40 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AT 00Z
SHOWED A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES FROM
NORTHWEST GULF TO WEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
FINALLY...THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM
IOWA TO ARIZONA WITH DISTURBANCES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
OVER ARIZONA. 18

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE AXIS AND LLJ WILL MIGRATE EAST AND YIELDING 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES OVER 400 TO 500 M/S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
FLORIDA PARISHES OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL INCREASE TO 1800 J/KG BY SUNRISE WITH
A SLIGHT LAG BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME SPIN
UPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ERGO...AGREE WITH TOR WATCH THROUGH 9
AM FOR NORTH HALF ZONES EXCLUDING MS COAST. WORKED OVER ATM MAY
YIELD A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD SCATTERED
SOUTH TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FOR NORTH ZONES.

.LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...

.MARINE...

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 62 74 50 / 70 70 70 50
BTR 82 64 74 52 / 60 70 80 40
ASD 80 68 75 56 / 60 70 90 60
MSY 82 68 75 58 / 60 80 100 50
GPT 78 68 76 56 / 70 80 100 70
PQL 80 68 74 56 / 70 80 100 70

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ056>070.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-071-072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ080>082.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND
THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A
BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION
OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED
WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN
THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER,
GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL
TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY
IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES
OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE
DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S
THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO
AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS
IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.

VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR
SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING
OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE
DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS
SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST
LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL.
THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF
EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY
NEARS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END
OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

.MARINE...

FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE
TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND.

.HYDROLOGY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING
HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 132 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICHIGAN ON GUSTY SSW WINDS.
ANY BREAKS WILL FILL BACK IN AS A SURFACE TROUGH WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA 21Z-24Z WITH SCT-BKN CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CIGS
WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURN AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CROSSES NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO LAKE HURON.

FOR DTW...PREVAILING S-SSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE 21Z TO
24Z TIME FRAME AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE AREA OF A POSSIBLE
INCLUSION AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE TODAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

* LOW TO MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE 21Z-24Z.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...JVC/RK
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....!--NOT SENT--!
AVIATION.....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS. THEN
A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAW DOWN
COLDER AIR AND SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

I ADDED GREATER DETAIL THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER US NOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY NOON.
THEN AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM (WEST TO EAST). THESE STORMS
MAY WELL HAVE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING SO I
ADDED THAT TO OUR FORECAST GRIDS. THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO MUSKEGON THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SURGE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT (1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS) BETWEEN NOON AND
4 PM OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA (RAP MODEL). ALSO THE HRRR
AND SPC SREF ARE SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON... MOSTLY SUB SEVERE. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE AREA
OF CLEARING SOUTHWEST OF CHI TO SEE IF IT CAN GET INTO OUR CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF HAVING SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS POINT THOUGHIT
SEEMS TO ME THAT CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH SO I
THINK MOSTLY SUB - SEVERE STORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

BY 6 PM THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA SO THE
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
IS LIMITED SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AFTER THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND STRONG SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA BUT TSRA HAVE
BEEN LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK RIGHT NOW AND
THAT WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS PRETTY
HIGH AROUND 65 KNOTS AFTER NOON TODAY AND WHILE THERE IS SOME CAPE
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 500-800 J/KG...LI/S ONLY FALL TO
AROUND -2C THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL TRENDS POINT TOWARD A BIT
LOWER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. I STILL THINK WE/LL SEE STORMS
AFTER NOON TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
A BIT DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS.

A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLDER AIR. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OVER THE NRN CWA AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SATURDAY SO RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS C. THE COLD AIR REMAINS INTO SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
AIR IS RATHER DRY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW TRAVERSES SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL
BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW TO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRIPE OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI.

DRIER AIR SETTLES IN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FOR THE MOST PART I DID NOT CHANGE THE WINDS OR HEADLINES IN THE
NEAR SHORE FORECAST. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MKG AND HOLLAND WEB
CAMS... VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO SO I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST TILL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP MODEL FOG FORECAST TOOL.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CREST AROUN 9.3 FEET ON SATURDAY.
THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 9.0 FEET... EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
COTTAGES AND HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF NEWAYGO ON RIVERVIEW DRIVE IN
BRIDGETON TOWNSHIP AND PEPPERIDGE IN ASHLAND TOWNSHIP.

OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
HAS RECEIVED 1.00-1.75 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR SINCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG STORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1130 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT BOTH EVART AND CROTON. CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ARE
BASED ON 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY. THOUGHT THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS... BUT THESE AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE WITH THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE
CROTON TO A FLOOD WARNING... AND EVART MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING THURSDAY MORNING IF FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS VERIFY. IMPACTS
TO HOMES AND ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

ELSEWHERE... NEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND SOME
EXISTING ADVISORIES EXTENDED DUE TO 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE RESTRICTED TO LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR RIVER BANKS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT AS
WELL...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING TO MVFR IF NOT IFR AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 16Z TO 00Z TIME
FRAME...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED. HAVE VCTS WORDING IN THE
TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 15 TO
25 MPH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR AS
THE DRY LINE OVER SW AR/NW LA HAS BEGUN PLOWING INTO THE THE
WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NE LA/SE AR. THE HRRR HAS HAD THIS
SCENARIO PEGGED WELL TODAY AND SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE
ALONG THE DRY LINE AS WELL AS DISCRETE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD. VERTICAL
TOTALS AROUND 30 ARE SUPPORTING LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND CAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS THERMO ENVIRONMENT IS OCCCURING IN AN
IMPRESSIVELY SHEARED WIND FIELD WITH 0-1KM SHEAR FROM 25-30 KNOTS AND
200-300 SRH. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING INTO AL AND DECREASING IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE INHERITED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIMARILY LEFTOVER FROM LAST
NIGHTS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING
TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH PRECIP SCENARIO TONIGHT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. MAY
STILL HAVE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE
TRAINING CELLS CAN SET UP.

ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
MEAN A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION FRIDAY. BOUNDARY DOES NOT LOOK AS
THOUGH IT WILL CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE DEPTH OF DRY
AIR CAN INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

GOING FORWARD INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
TX RESULTING IN CONVERGING FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOOKS TO SET UP NICE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME REINFORCEMENT OF THE DRY/COOL AIR
OVER THE NE BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING./26/

.AVIATION...SEVERAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK, WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THROUGH THE EVENING, SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
50 KT WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. SOME VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE DELTA TO OVERNIGHT IN SE MS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG MAY LINGER AT PIB/HBG WELL INTO THE MORNING
FRIDAY. /DL/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 59 72 48 65 / 77 48 35 8
MERIDIAN 62 72 49 66 / 80 66 32 12
VICKSBURG 58 70 48 66 / 63 38 29 8
HATTIESBURG 67 72 52 69 / 86 87 51 10
NATCHEZ 61 72 49 65 / 66 66 33 8
GREENVILLE 54 70 46 65 / 50 17 17 6
GREENWOOD 54 71 45 64 / 74 19 19 7

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1017 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...KJAN MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A MAUL AROUND 750 MB WHICH
HAS LED TO ABOUT 730 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA MOVING OUT AT PRESENT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
SHOWING THE REALIZATION OF THIS CAPE IN THE BUBBLY APPEARANCE OF
ENHANCED CU AND TCU OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AREA RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EAST AND NORTH...BUT QUICKLY MOVING EAST
AS WELL.

VIS IMAGERY INDICATING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A RECHARGING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
IS INDICATING MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 20Z OVER NE LA WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS 0-1KM SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND
OVER 500 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.5-8 C/KM (VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30) WILL ALSO EXIST OVERTOP OF SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70./26/

.AVIATION...MIXED MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL
WITH AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AFTER 31/18Z. WHERE TSRA OCCURS...IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SEEN...BUT ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME./26

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

UPDATE...TO INCLUDE AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
AS SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 14Z A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TSRA/SHRA OCCUR FROM AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH 50 KT WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH THE
CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER
AROUND 21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.

ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER ROBUST AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50KTS. VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 27-31C AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PUSHING 8C/KM. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ALSO SHOW SOME POCKETS OF 50KTS 80M WINDS...WHICH
SUGGEST SOLID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20. LARGE HAIL
PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SIZES UP TO 2 INCHES OR LARGER POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL...THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO DOES
HELICITY WITH VALUES AROUND 200-300M2/S2 0-1KM AND 200-500M2/S2
0-3KM. IN ADDITION...THE SIG TOR PARAMETER DEPICTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 4...WHICH WHEN LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN
GRADIENT THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTUAL OCCURRENCE...THIS WOULD
PLACE IT ACROSS AGAIN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK.

IN TERMS OF THE FLOODING RISK...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER OUR REGION AND IS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE
99TH TO MAX PERCENTILES PER THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PW VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AGAIN THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS COUNTIES
NORTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN TACT BUT FEEL THE BEST
AREA FOR FLOODING AT LEAST FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND MAY
ADJUST HAZARDS AND GRAPHICS TO REFLECT THIS CONFIDENCE. THROUGH
TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING/OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH LOOKS FEASIBLE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE MOST ROBUST STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND 9-10PM
OR SO BUT THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
LINGERING/STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BELT. GIVEN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE AS DEPICTED BY
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG...VERTICAL TOTALS STILL AROUND 28-30C
AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE IT COMPLETELY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT IT
IS UNCERTAIN JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OR HOW FAST OR SLOW
IT MAY GET THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN TO LINGER
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER BY
THAT POINT WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DRYING BY EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. /28/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 59 73 49 / 71 70 42 32
MERIDIAN 77 61 74 49 / 88 73 56 42
VICKSBURG 79 58 71 49 / 74 63 28 23
HATTIESBURG 78 66 72 52 / 86 63 79 60
NATCHEZ 79 61 71 49 / 75 58 51 40
GREENVILLE 77 54 68 46 / 74 53 20 21
GREENWOOD 78 54 71 45 / 80 80 21 20

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>029-034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

543 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...TO INCLUDE AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
AS SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 14Z A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TSRA/SHRA OCCUR FROM AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH 50 KT WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH THE
CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

..ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 80 59 73 49 / 73 70 42 32
MERIDIAN 78 61 74 49 / 88 73 56 42
VICKSBURG 80 58 71 49 / 84 63 28 23
HATTIESBURG 79 66 72 52 / 86 63 79 60
NATCHEZ 80 61 71 49 / 79 58 51 40
GREENVILLE 78 54 68 46 / 85 53 20 21
GREENWOOD 79 54 71 45 / 86 80 21 20

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

22/28/22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER AROUND
21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

28/22

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
928 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Scattered showers develop today in response to both daytime
heating and ascent associated with a short wave trof currently
extending through west central MO. The heating along with CAA
aloft produced enough instability to produce shallow convection
(i.e. no thunder), and with the low freezing levels, some reports
of small hail. Coverage of precipitation has waned since sunset,
although some residual showers persist in association with the
lift via the short wave. This activity, centered through east
central MO, will continue moving southeast through the remainder
of the evening and diminish in coverage.

The second item revolves around the forecast for Saturday. I have
issued a wind advisory for portions of west central and south
central IL. A secondary cold front will drive across the region
from mid morning into the afternoon accompanied by a tightening
pressure gradient, strong wind fields aloft, and impressive low
level CAA. Mixing will be rather deep and all of the above point
to the development of strong and gusty west-northwest winds
starting near mid morning in northeast MO/west central IL, and
spreading southeast with time, peaking early-mid afternoon. GFS
MOS, RAP winds, SREF probabilities and momentum transfer techniques
from soundings all support sustained winds up to 30 mph with gusts
of 45+ mph.

Depending on fuel moisture, an upgrade from heightened fire danger
to red flag conditions may be warranted for parts of central and
northeast MO into west central IL.

Glass

.SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Another shortwave is moving through the Midwest and producing
scattered showers across much of northern down across parts of
central Missouri and west central Illinois. Expect this shower
activity to continue for the next several hours and weaken after 01-
02Z. The character of the clouds over the area and upstream across
Iowa and Nebraska looks very diurnal, so I expect we`ll see some
good clearing tonight. Temperatures should fall into the low and
mid 30s so frost will be a concern...but primarily over central and
southeast Missouri in more sheltered spots where it will be less
windy. Have added in patchy frost in these areas.

Think Saturday will be slightly warmer than today...particularly in
central Missouri where wind will start out from the west southwest
for the first 1/2 of the day ahead of another reinforcing cold
front. Wind will be a potential issue as the pressure gradient
tightens between the associated low over the Great Lakes and high
pressure over the eastern Plains. Current thinking is that we may
get close to wind advisory criteria across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois. Additionally, we should easily
have low enough relative humidity and fuel moisture, as well as high
enough wind for elevated fire danger across most of the northern
portion of the CWFA. RH values are marginal for Red Flag
criteria...so have held off issuing any special fire weather
products for now.

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Focus thru the weekend will be temps with no precip expected until
Tues night.

Not much change from the prev forecast with mdls still suggesting
the sfc ridge building into the area Sat night. The ridge axis will
quickly push thru the CWA, with winds turning sly by sunrise. This
poses a bit of a forecast problem as these sly winds will help temps
rise. Main question attm is if temps across ern portions of the CWA
will drop enuf for a freeze headline. With a few uncertainties, will
hold off on any headlines for now.

Roller coaster temps continue thru the remainder of the forecast
period. System on Tues night into Thurs still appears to be on track
with the prev forecast and only minor changes were made.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Moderate strength NW surface winds will diminish this
evening along with the isolated to scattered showers moving thru
and have kept VCSH mention at all sites as well, including adding
this mention to STL metro sites where they continue to make
progress. Another cold front will move thru Saturday morning, and
will veer winds from the NW, after a brief period of backing from
W-SW during late tonight, and strengthen them as well, with gusts
to 30-35kts expected for much of the day.

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond
IL-Brown IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1212 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND
ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM TO MORE IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS FROM THE WIND GUST
ALGORITHM TO FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH CONSRAW. INCREASED SKY COVER
FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO WHERE THE AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL MORE LIKELY BE AS THE QUICK-HITTING WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR EXAMPLE...IN THE
HASTINGS AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM.
LOOK FOR A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW AS THIS QUICK HITTER MOVES
THROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS FAR AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE RAP DOES NOT GIVE US ANYTHING. A CLOSED
MID- LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...WHICH MIGHT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR FAR NORTHEAST A
SHOT AT SOME QUICK RAIN/SNOW...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE
ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARILY NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
THE REMNANTS OF ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PUSHING E-NE OUT OF THE AREA. QUICK ON ITS HEELS...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN PUSHING S-SE OUT CENTRAL CANADA...AND WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY AT THE SFC...NWRLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE CWA-
WIDE...SITTING BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER IA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS IN
PLACE...AND WHAT PRECIP IS FALLING IS A COLD RAIN...WITH 3 AM
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE ONGOING AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF A
LXN/BELOIT LINE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ONCE IT
DOES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA...BUT ITS LOOKING TO BE A BRIEF ONE.
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED NEXT IN LINE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY...AND INTO FAR NERN
PORTIONS OF NEB BY EVENING. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...THOUGH MODELS ARENT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THOSE CHANCES...WITH SOME REALLY DROPPING OFF
BASICALLY SOUTH OF I80. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
ANY PARTICULAR AREA...SO HAVE THE CWA-WIDE POPS STILL IN
PLACE...WITH 30- 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE THE
SHOWER ONLY MENTION...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY /THOUGH THE NAM STILL SHOWS PERHAPS 1-200 J/KG/. CANT
EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NERN
QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES INTO IA TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...SO LOOKING AT A
BREEZY/WINDY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
NWRLY...SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. FAR S/SERN AREAS MAKE
CREEP UP NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS MIXED IN.

EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...WITH A RELATIVELY COOL SPRING AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW
DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN
TRANSITIONS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL TRACK WITH A
LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND 70S ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A MODEST BUMP IN DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THESE
WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES TO COMBINE WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER. DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS...DECIDED TO BROAD BRUSH
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6...WITH
PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE EXACT DETAILS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...A QUICK PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUNDAY EVENING
TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY...WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THIS MODEST TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY. THIS WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS A
BIT STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...ENSEMBLE OUTLIERS ARE ONLY
BRINGING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF A PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS ONLY BRINGING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

SO OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SEESAWING TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KGRI OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...BUT SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE DAY...BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SHOWERS...MAINLY MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS POINT AM GOING WITH VCSH MENTION...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NWRLY WINDS BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE DAY OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH...DECIDED TO BE
PESSIMISTIC AND GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

953 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS MIXED IN.

SO OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SEESAWING TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1010 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRI...LIGHT RA FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SW
ZONES AND FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING
POPS FROM HERE ON OUT. HAVE AN INC POP TREND THROUGH THE EVENING
BECOMING CATEGORICAL ALL OF E NC AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
AT PRESENT THOUGH WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND HT FALLS ALOFT
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY INCREASES A BIT SO RETAINED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. APPEARS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE SCENARIO WITH JUST A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE. HIGH RES MODEL
SUITE INDICATE A BACKING OF SFC WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
SAT SO AN ISO TORNADO THREAT STILL LOOMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY
SHOWS THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 1.60 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN NC, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SPC MESOANALYSES
PWATS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL OFFSHORE WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT OF NC.

YESTERDAYS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUITE AND SOME GLOBAL MODELS
PERFORMED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC COINCIDENT WITH SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSION ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER BATCH OVER GA/SC ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO MATCH TRENDS WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING WHICH
YIELDED LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MAY STILL BE A
BIT OVERDONE THIS EVENING PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, BUT EXPECT
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NC FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z AND HAVE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE.

BETTER FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG
VORTMAX OVER EASTERN NC AND MODEST DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JETSTREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN ZONES LATE. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR OVERNIGHT, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 40 KT AT
06Z TO AROUND 70 KT BY 12Z WHILE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
DIMINISH TO AROUND 100-200 M2/S2 LATE. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BIGGEST
THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WITH PWATS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT, LOWS IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
OFF THE OBX COAST BY 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH EASTERN NC BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MIDDAY AS
PRECIP AND BEST FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. MODEL BLEND
SUGGEST AN END TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 21-00Z. COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING 1355-1370 METERS, YIELDING MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS COOLER WEATHER
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PRODUCING RAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 70S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING USHERING IN
SOME RATHER COLD AIR FOR EARLY APRIL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH LOWS MID 30S INLAND TO MID 40S OUTER
BANKS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE
SPEED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AND
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS
WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND
THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV. LATER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND WITH IT A DROP
INTO THE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR RANGE ESP TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT
WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND PERHAPS
VFR ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION.
GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...HAVE EXPIRED SCA FROM ALBEMARLE SOUND AS
WINDS ONLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE HERE...AND SHOULD SEE WINDS CONT
TO DIMINISH FOR PAMLICO SO WILL END AT 05Z. LATEST SURFACE AND
BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KT,
MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE 5-8 FT
NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. ADJUSTED THE ENDING TIMES OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER TO BETTER CORRESPOND WITH WINDS FALLING
BELOW 25 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND ALSO BECAUSE
DURATION BETWEEN CURRENT GUSTY SW WIND EVENT AND POST-FRONTAL NW
SURGE IS GREATER THAN 12 HOURS. SCAS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY (SEE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST).

NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LIGHT NW WINDS BACKS TO
SW AND INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON TUESDAY. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL/SGK
MARINE...CTC/DAG/TL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

835 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER ON
THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST TO SOME AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED THIS EVENING LIKELY
RESULTING FROM THE EARLIER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WHICH
MUTED SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
FOUND OFF THE SOUTHERN SC COAST AND HEADING AWAY FROM SHORE.
MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AS WELL DUE TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN PLACE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE PROSPECTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE DIMINISHED IN OUR PART OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...LASTLY ALONG THE COAST.
THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND IS OFFSHORE. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA ON INCREASING WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVE...SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR WITH CLEARING LIKELY HOLDING OFF
LONGEST AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING SUN AND CLEAR SKIES
SUN NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
DROPPING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SAT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ON SUN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A LONGWAVE
MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHICH
WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO 10+
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA...AS WILL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR
MIDWEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HIT THE FREEZING MARK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PLAN TO ADD PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUE NIGHT-
WED MORNING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARDS 70 ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THAN THE ONE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO A BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE. ANOTHER
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING
INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING FIREWORKS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SPORADIC STRIKES. PRECIPITATION INDUCED
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS WELL MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE CONVECTION TO THE COAST
BY 04-05Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. SATURDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM FRIDAY....LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT INSHORE UP TO 5 TO 6 FT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SURFACE PRESSURE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE WATERS WHICH IS HOLDING
SPEEDS BACK SOME. ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL FURTHER
SKEW THE LOCAL WIND FIELD TEMPORARILY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
OTHER THAN INITIAL WIND SPEED CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS IS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE W...VEERING TO NW. THE
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO N DURING SUN AND NE SUN EVE BEFORE BECOMING
ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SUN...TRENDING TOWARD SE AND
S. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER INTO
SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER IN OFFSHORE FLOW SUN...2 FT OR
LESS SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH 4-5
FOOT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM SHORE AS A RESULT OF
15-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

WE REDUCED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE /ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND/ IN RESPECT TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT MOS
AND RAW 2-METER MODEL GUIDANCE...DESPITE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN MANY AREAS. OUR WIND ADVISORY
IS ON TRACK AS GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45 MPH IN PLACES LIKE ROLLA AS
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTHWARD...AND IT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY ABOUT 04 UTC PER RECENT RAP TRENDS. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WINDS EASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THEIR INITIAL PRESSURE-
RISE-DRIVEN RESPONSE PER UPSTREAM TRENDS...SO THE GOING 06 UTC END
TIME OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WIND AVISORY APPEARS ON TARGET
TOO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR PLACE-
MENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. AS OF 2325 UTC...MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EVOLVING CLIPPER WHICH
HAS ITS SURFACE LOW WEST OF WINNIPEG AT THIS HOUR. THE 20-22 UTC
RUNS OF THE RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH 35
KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ND
HAVE APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THERE. THUS...WE WILL NOT EXPAND THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN IS INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CHANGED THE
WIND ADVISORY START TIME IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO 7 PM CDT (ENDING
AROUND 1 AM CDT) TONIGHT...AND BEGINNING AROUND 10 PM CDT FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA (ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE - AROUND 4 AM
CDT). THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS - ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MONTANA (TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S) AND INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S). MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HUDSON BAY
LOW WITH A WEST COAST RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WAS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE - ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW FEATURE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA
AND REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS - AROUND 40-55 KNOTS AT H850 AND 65-
75 KNOTS AT H700 DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT (6-7PM) AND THE JAMESTOWN AREA BY AROUND 03Z (9-
10PM). LOOKING AT LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST.

THE FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER REACHES WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY LASTING ONLY AROUND 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS WILL JUST MAKE
CRITERIA OF AROUND 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.

ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW) MOVES EAST...IT ALLOWS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUS A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ONLY AROUND
40 IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. STILL ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL (HIGHS IN THE 60S)...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS (HIGHS IN THE 40S). A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSHOWERS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

COLD ADVECTION IS BRIEF...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AGAIN PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TO BRING A WARM DAY MONDAY.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE BREAKS INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/WYOMING AND SWEEPS EAST ACROSS MANITOBA
AND THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY. COULD BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S
WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEM IS LOW WITH
LITTLE SUGGESTION OF LOW STRATUS UPSTREAM. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS BETWEEN
03 AND 09 UTC.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ023-025-037.

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS BISMARCK ND

650 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

COLD ADVECTION IS BRIEF...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AGAIN PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TO BRING A WARM DAY MONDAY.

THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S
WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY
BE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEM IS LOW GIVEN A
LACK OF SOLID UPSTREAM STRATUS ON LATE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMOT TO KJMS BETWEEN 03 AND 09 UTC.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NDZ023-025-037.

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR PLACE-
MENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. AS OF 2325 UTC...MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EVOLVING CLIPPER WHICH
HAS ITS SURFACE LOW WEST OF WINNIPEG AT THIS HOUR. THE 20-22 UTC
RUNS OF THE RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH 35
KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST ND
HAVE APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE STILL FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THEREL. THUS...WE WILL NOT EXPAND THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.