Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/01/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

834 AM MST WED MAR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MEAGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW STILL ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN ONLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. SEVERAL VORT
LOBES/SHORTWAVES REMAIN TRAVELING THROUGH THE LOW CIRCULATION...WITH
THE MOST PROMINENT ONE BEGINNING TO SPLIT FROM THE MAIN CIRC CENTER
AND CARVE OUT OVER SOUTHERN CA. UPPER JET STREAK HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD WITH OVER 100KT 300MB WINDS OBSERVED ON THE 30/12Z TWC
RAOB. TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...ALBEIT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING. SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...SAVE
FOR SOME CU FIELDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE RIM. SOME
CU COULD REDEVELOP DOWN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS LATER INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD NOT EXCEED SCATTERED GIVEN THE
ALREADY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND FURTHER DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH.
NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THIS MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMP TRENDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 244 AM MST/PDT/...
TODAY AND THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES IS
CENTERED NEAR WEST-CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OF THAT
IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS LOCATED OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO HOME A VORT MAX
WITHIN THE TROUGH HAS MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK BUT
ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES
OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA
COUNTY FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF
CLOUDINESS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING BUT NOT AFFECTING NEAR AS MUCH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. NCEP HI-RES ARW
AND NMM AS WELL AS SREF DEPICT VERY MODEST QPF THERE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COULDNT RULE OUT SPRINKLES IN THE FAR EAST
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION. AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS...POPS EAST OF PHOENIX DROP
OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT REDEVELOP OVER JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AS
ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPS DOWN FROM NEVADA. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDING
FOR JTNP EVEN DEVELOP A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE...BUT NONE FOR BLYTHE.
DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY AS
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BORDERLANDS THURSDAY AND WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL DAY TODAY WITH VERY
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS TUESDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A FINAL SHORT
WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA FOR ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEAGER
PRECIP FOR OUR EASTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH LOW 90S
COMMON. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE WEAKER DUE TO A NORTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH MOVING INLAND AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NUDGING
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
HAVE MORE AFFECT ON US DUE TO CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD. THUS TEMPS
DIP DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE
DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS AT BAY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT KPHX WILL KEEP WEST WINDS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY LIGHT WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. KIWA HAS A
BETTER SHOT AT GOING EASTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NOT SURE THING.
BY MID MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER AS MIXING COMMENCES
AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SWITCHING OVER TO
EASTERLIES TONIGHT. WILL SEE PERIODIC CU WITH BASES OF 8-10K FEET
LASTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MOST TIMES EITHER FEW OR SCT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WESTERLY PREDOMINANT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIKELY WILL SEE SOME PERIODIC FEW TO SCT CU
STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST TYPICAL
AFTERNOON LOCAL GUSTINESS FAVORING UPSLOPE OR THE SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

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DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

519 AM MST WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES IS
CENTERED NEAR WEST-CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OF THAT
IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS LOCATED OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO HOME A VORT MAX
WITHIN THE TROUGH HAS MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK BUT
ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES
OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA
COUNTY FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF
CLOUDINESS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING BUT NOT AFFECTING NEAR AS MUCH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. NCEP HI-RES ARW
AND NMM AS WELL AS SREF DEPICT VERY MODEST QPF THERE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COULDNT RULE OUT SPRINKLES IN THE FAR EAST
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION. AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS...POPS EAST OF PHOENIX
DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT REDEVELOP OVER JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
AS ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPS DOWN FROM NEVADA. LATEST RAP FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR JTNP EVEN DEVELOP A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE...BUT NONE FOR
BLYTHE. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE
SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH TONIGHT THEN
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BORDERLANDS THURSDAY AND WEAKEN IN THE
PROCESS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL DAY TODAY WITH
VERY SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS TUESDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND
BEGINS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

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DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

244 AM MST WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ONLY MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS PREVAIL. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS
TIMING THE WIND SHIFT BACK TO AN E/SE DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT. MODEL
OUTPUT HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS WIND SHIFT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS ONLY MODEST. OTHERWISE...SCT DECK ARE LIKELY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION SHOULD NOT BE AS LARGE AS A PROBLEM AS TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SCT CLOUD DECKS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOSING STRONGER
GUSTS...AND BECOME NOTICEABLY LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT DIRECTIONS COULD EVEN BECOME VARIABLE FOR PERIODS AS
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY WITH READINGS STAYING BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
GRADUALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10
AND 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY EXPECT WARMER
DESERTS TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND JUST TYPICAL AFTERNOON LOCAL GUSTINESS
FAVORING UPSLOPE OR THE SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

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DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB/KUHLMAN/MEYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

950 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH, WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING TO OUR
EAST. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND ONE DIVING
TOWARD OUR AREA, STRENGTHENING AS THEY DO SO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP S-SWLY RETURN FLOW IN BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL KEEP US IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD PATTERN. FORECAST
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S ARE
ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WINDS). TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOW TO FALL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 MPH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 10-15
MPH FARTHER INLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS IS LOCATED OUT TO
OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE TO MAINTAIN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND
RAP, SHOWS FEW IF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS THE POCONOS, WHERE A BATCH OF SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE LOWERED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THESE TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS IN THE
MORNING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NERN PA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS TO BE OVERHEAD AT
THE START THE DAY. RH CROSS SECTIONS FROM A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.
ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PUTS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL THE
ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN IF WE DON`T FULLY DESTABILIZE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ,
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE ALONG A LINE
WITH STRONG SHEAR THE DRIVING FORCE. SHERBS PARAMETER VALUES FROM
THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE ABOVE 1 ACROSS THE DE VALLEY AND COASTAL PLAIN
AT 18Z AND 21Z...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN THIS HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SETUP.
SPC D2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

S-SW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OFF THE 12Z GFS VERIFY, WE WOULD NEED A WIND ADVISORY FROM PHILA
SOUTH AND EAST AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS TENDS TO BE TOO HIGH WITH THE WIND FIELD
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DEEP
THE MIXING WILL BECOME IF THE MORNING STRATUS HANGS ON LATER INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED, WITH VERY STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AND EVEN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS TO OUR EAST SATURDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES COULD
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
COULD CREATE RAINFALL THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ONE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WHILE THE
OTHER DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA. AS THE FIRST ONE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA, IT MAY BRING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SECOND
DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA, IT WILL PULL A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO FRONTS SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WE ONLY HAVE ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH AS WARM AS IT`S BEEN, IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH SNOW TO STICK, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST 40 TO 50 MPH,
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS, LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

THE LOW WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE GFS. BUT THEY BOTH AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS RAIN, BUT AS THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO WE HAVE
INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOES A BIT UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED
DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS.
WITH AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS,
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CEILINGS LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WE ARE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS THAN THE LAMP/NAM GUIDANCE. CURRENT THINKING IS ALSO
THIS GUIDANCE IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW RAISED THE VALUES SOME OVERNIGHT OVER THE
GUIDANCE BUT WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE CEILINGS AND VSBYS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

IFR WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR BY NOON AS STRATUS
MIXES OUT. SWLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY (25-30 KT). SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBILE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT FORECASTED
COVERAGE INDICATES THE HIGHER CHANCES OF IMPACTS TO TAF SITES IN
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. GIVEN THIS
IS STILL MORE THAN 12 HOURS OPTED NOT TO DETAIL THUNDER IN THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA, WHICH MAY LOWER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 20-25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY LOWER CONDITIONS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 40-50 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. SNOW POSSIBLE LATE AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT GUSTS WILL
WILL STILL BE AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT.

SWLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
SEE A REPEAT OF WHAT HAPPENED TODAY WITH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING ON LAND POSSIBLY REACHING THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY AND THUS DO NOT THINK
MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT 35 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, HOWEVER,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING. COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE
EVENING, SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
NEAR STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH A
RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY, POSSIBLY NEAR
GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF LULL
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, POSSIBLY GALE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS DROPPING INTO 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING OF THE FUELS TAKES PLACE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

818 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.Update...

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has been steadily moving
eastward from our SE AL zones and across our lower tier GA zones
from late this afternoon into the early evening. Updated grids and
zones for PoPs based on current radar trends. Most of the
convection should remain along and north of the Florida border
before 06z before the next round of convection arrives before
daybreak.

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday]...Convection continues at DHN and ABY and should
impact VLD shortly. Otherwise, expect CIGS/VSBYS to lower to
IFR/LIFR levels due to fog/mist. Before daybreak another round of
showers and thunderstorms will make its way eastward starting with
DHN. On Friday, widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact
all terminals most of the day. rain will be heavy at times
reducing VSBY to IFR levels. Some of the storms will be strong to
severe but the likelihood of one impacting the terminals is low.

.Prev Discussion [428 PM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A trough was extended across the central/western US with a shortwave
embedded in the through across the central Plains to mid-
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A slow moving cold front was
associated with this system and the front will push into the lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. A complex of storms has been pushing
across AL/GA today with the stronger storms across southern
Alabama. This is the area on the northern side of the better CAPE
(around 1000 J/kg) and the southern side of the better shear.
While CAPE values will be decent across the western extent of the
CWA, the area will be slightly less favorable than further
westward. Still the potential for severe storms though into this
evening, particularly across the western portion of the CWA. While
some models have struggled with depicting the showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, the HRRR consistently showed the
showers and thunderstorms pushing into the CWA this afternoon.
Have trended the forecast for the evening towards the HRRR and
thus increased PoPs across the western half of the CWA through
this evening. Some of this activity may linger into tonight, but
then expect a lull before another round moves into SE Alabama late
tonight.

Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees
above normal.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Deep moist southwest flow aloft through Friday night will gradually
flatten becoming zonal by Saturday night as the axis of the broad
trough swings to our east. The associated cold front entering the
Lower Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period will
slowly translate eastward across our CWA Friday night through midday
Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the front with some containing very heavy rainfall. A
surface low is expected to develop along the boundary in the
northern Gulf Friday and lift northeastward across the Florida
Panhandle. This will further enhance convection with heavy rains
and we have issued a flash flood watch for all but the SE Big Bend
and a few of our southeast Georgia counties. The watch is in
effect through 8 am Saturday as we expect widespread QPF amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts between 5 and 6 inches.

In addition to the flash flood threat, we still have the potential
for severe weather with the greatest threat during the Friday to
Friday night time frame. SPC has a portion of western zones
highlighted in the slight risk through tonight and all but our SE
Big bend zones for Friday/Friday night. The greatest threat
continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds but large hail and
isolated tornados are also possible. The cold front is expected to
be roughly along a line from near Albany to Apalachicola around
daybreak Saturday with a marginal risk for severe weather along and
to the east of there. The cold front is expected to clear all
zones by noon or shortly thereafter.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much drier airmass
will filter in through Monday. A dry cold front will drop down from
the north bringing a re-enforcement of drier air on Tuesday that will
continue at least into the middle of the week. A stronger cold front
may arrive late Wednesday or Thursday bringing with it the next
chance for rain. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

.Marine...

Moderate southerly winds will persist through Friday night before
a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday. Marginal exercise
caution conditions are possible at times through Friday,
especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will develop on
Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible from Friday night through Saturday night, mainly across
the western waters.

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns. A soaking rain is expected by
Friday if not sooner. Drier air will move in on Saturday and remain
in place for a few days, but is not expected to reach the threshold
for Red Flag criteria.

.Hydrology...

Current conditions across the region show above normal stream flows
in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the Suwannee.
Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola,
Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.

Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight through the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due to
the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists for
widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated
heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest
guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the
Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would
suggest at least that the most impactful river flooding would be
limited to areas already in flood.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through
Saturday morning.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 68 79 68 78 47 / 30 100 100 50 10
Panama City 70 75 66 73 51 / 50 100 100 40 10
Dothan 68 74 61 73 44 / 70 100 80 10 0
Albany 68 76 63 73 44 / 70 100 100 20 0
Valdosta 67 80 68 77 46 / 30 100 100 60 10
Cross City 68 82 72 79 49 / 10 40 90 70 10
Apalachicola 70 74 69 75 52 / 20 100 100 50 10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...BARRY/CHANEY
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/MCDERMOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

1044 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE AREA IS RAIN-FREE AS OF LATE EVENING...BUT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS
FORECAST BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHILE GENERALLY DISSIPATING. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...HAVE INCLUDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THEN...THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SO THE FORECAST WILL START TO RAMP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK UP FROM THE WEST LATE. COUPLED WINDS
AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR LATE
APRIL/EARLY MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY DROP TO THE
MID 60S FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN ORGANIZING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE TIMING OF
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE REGION WILL
SOLIDLY BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A PERUSAL OF SOUNDING FEATURES
REVEAL AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. THE DAY WILL LIKELY
START OFF WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S.
BASED ON THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND HEATING EARLY IN THE
DAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA. BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ENOUGH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR STORMS TO START DEVELOPING.
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD IN AS A 150
KT 300 MB JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONCE CONVECTION
GETS GOING IN THIS AREA IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -7 C/KM OR STEEPER.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AS WELL 40+ KT OF 0-
6 KM SHEAR. OVERALL THE SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO THE CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL LIKELY FAVOR LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE PROGGED LAPSE RATES. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 2 PM FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
AROUND 4 PM AND INTO THE EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COAST
TO START THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT AND THE FOCUS OF UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ORIGINATE FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND PUSH IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. POPS RAMP BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL DURING THIS TIME AS COVERAGE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
DESPITE THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME. ANOTHER POCKET OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
OF -3 TO -4. THE HAIL THREAT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN. PWATS WILL BE 1.6-1.7 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
THE MAXIMUM ON RECORD FOR THAT DATE/TIME. ANOTHER INDICATOR IS THE
FACT THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS GOING TO BE PARALLEL TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND THE DEEP LAYER FORCING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF ROUND OF STORMS OVER
THE SAME AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...FORECAST THINKING FAVORS A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS
PARALLEL TO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED LONGWAVE. THEREFORE...THIS COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT BY THIS
TIME IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTION BY EARLIER
CONVECTION...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE REST
OF THE DAY WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND THE FORECAST IS
RAIN FREE. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH
SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. MONDAY. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING A POTENTIALLY EARLIER START TIME TO THE CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY AS A SQUALL LINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND AS A
RESULT HAVE INTRODUCED SHOWERS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAF/S FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
COULD BE LATER IN THE DAY AS MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE
INDICATING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AT LEAST PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THEREAFTER.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING
IN SOUTH WINDS BECOMING A SOLID 15 KT ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE WATERS.
SEAS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 FT. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
COULD OCCUR OCCASIONALLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT...UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COLD DRIFT INTO
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.

SEA FOG...ELEVATED DEW POINTS STREAMING OVER COOLER ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...BSH/ECT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1030 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND DIMINISHED UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA 500 AM TO 700 AM.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET MOVING
INTO THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS
DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH 18Z.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. HAVE IMPROVED CEILINGS TO VFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SHALLOW FOG
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 2000
FT AGL.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CEILING
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 12Z...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

912 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS
DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE SC TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HI RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RAIN THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR LLWS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

805 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH GREATEST UPPER LIFT APPEARS
TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES OUT OF GA
INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND
STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR LLWS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1253 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
1134 AM CDT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT ACROSS
SOME OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THESE STORM LOOKS LOW.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITHIN THE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 60 BENEATH A CORRIDOR OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG APPEAR TO BE VERY
POSSIBLE. THE KINEMATIC FIELD OVER THE AREA LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A MID LEVEL JET (AROUND 500 MB) EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 70 KT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE GOOD THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
ALSO BE DECENT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SUPER CELL STORM STRUCTURES.

KJB

.SHORT TERM...
331 PM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING
WARMING AND MIXING...AND LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE HOLES IN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP. GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HAVE VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AND THUNDER OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THROUGH
THIS AFTN DUE TO NO CLEAR FORCING AND 15+ DEGREE SFC DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. THINKING THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE SHOWERS ARE ON RADAR...BUT THUNDER IS STILL STRUGGLING.

WHILE SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST RAIN COULD TAKE SOME TIME
TO FORM THIS EVENING...STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. THINKING THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. WITH A DYING TREND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A MILD NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WHILE FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE...THINKING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOG TO FORM OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
1253 PM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUBTLE NW FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND A STEEP LAPSE RATES
ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME
GRAUPEL (MUSHY HAIL) OR PERHAPS EVEN A WET SNOWFLAKE OR TWO.

MUCH MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA PUTTING US ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP EXPECTED...HOWEVER LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BUT MORE NOTICEABLY A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG
CLIPPER TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER COMMENCING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRACK THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN FOR OUR CWA...AND IF IT TRACKS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WE COULD
STAY DRY ALTOGETHER. DID MAINTAIN A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUT
US CLOSER TO THE RAIN-SNOW LINE. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER
VIGOROUS WITH STRONG ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF >100KT
250MB JET ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO COULD
EVEN SOME SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIP. PLENTY OF TIME
TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO FINE TUNE
TRACK/INTENSITY/TIMING OF THIS WAVE...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE A
SYSTEM TO WATCH. VERY ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING CLIPPER FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID-WEEK.

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. LOWERED GUSTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING
MIXING. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SEEM TO HELP GUSTS GET
UP TO 30 KT. OCNL GUSTS TO 30 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT -SHRA AND VCTS IN THE TAFS AFT 21Z AS PRIME TIME
HEATING WILL HELP SHOWERS TO FORM. THINKING BETTER TS COVERAGE
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BUT STILL HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT RFD WHERE DYING STORMS
OVER IOWA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING THOUGH.

KEPT IFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING THEY
WILL OCCUR. IFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY TIED TO THE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT CAN SEE CIGS DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR AS WE
SATURATE OVERNIGHT. MIXING PICKS UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW
ENTERS THE REGION. THINKING THE MIXING WILL HELP LIFT CIGS
QUICKLY. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST...BUT DID
NOT WANT TO INCLUDE WINDS AS STRONG AS MODELS SUGGEST JUST YET.
ONE MODEL FEATURES GUSTS OVER 45 KT. THINKING RAIN SHIFTS EAST IN
THE MORNING...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMS ALONG
THE LOW/S COLD FRONT IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JEE

.MARINE...
309 AM CDT

SOUTHERLY WINDS/GUSTS ARE INCREASING OVER THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY INTO
THURSDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 30KT LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE. HOWEVER...STABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY
PREVAILING GALES. WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WILL ALSO RAMP UP TO
30KT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALES DURING
THIS TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH THIS LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT...OVERALL SPEEDS ACROSS THE
LAKE WILL DIMINISH. THIS WONT LIKELY BE THE CASE THOUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. OVER THE OPEN WATERS...STABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY GALES. WINDS/GUSTS WILL STILL BE TO 30KT
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THOUGH. DO THINK ANY GALE POTENTIAL WILL BE SPORADIC...AND
SO HAVE ONLY MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL VARY GREATLY OVER THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY WITH THIS LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. OVER THE NORTH
HALF...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR AND OVER THE SOUTH
HALF...SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ON THURSDAY BUT THERE
IS SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE. HIGHEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND...AND SO HAVE REPLACED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH A GALE WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS
EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. AS THIS LOW EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WHILE DIMINISHING. A PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONGER WINDS APPROACHING GALES WILL BE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.

GALE WATCH...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 7
PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Forecast is pretty much on track today with scatteres showers and
a few thunderstorms spreading ne across areas from I-55 west at
lat this morning. Had pea size hail (1/4 inch) recently reported
in Springfield with a thunderstorm. Most of the lightning activity
is currently in eastern Sangamon county, and there was some
lightning in past hour near Tazewell and Logan county border.

15Z surface map shows 998 mb low pressure over central Nebraska
with a cold front through central KS into nw Texas/OK. Breezy sse
winds of 12-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph over central IL this
morning. 1030 am temps were in the low to mid 50s with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 30s. RAP, HRRR and NAM models show scattered
showers along with chances of thunderstorms spreading over eastern
IL during the afternoon. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms
for areas from highway 51 west this afternoon into tonight, with
5-15% risk of hail and high winds and just 2% risk of tornadoes.
RAP and NAM show low MUCAPES peaking from 200-400 j/kg over
western CWA today while high shear of 45-60 kts in western CWA
with highest shear nw of IL river. Better chance of severe storms
is west of IL this afternoon/tonight where stronger
instability/higher CAPES. Highs this afternoon in the low to mid
60s with upper 60s southeast of I-70 and from Jacksonville sw.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

The recent stretch of quiet weather across central and southeast
Illinois will come to an end today as a slow moving storm system
approaches the area. The upper-level low driving the system is still
spinning across the southwest U.S., but it is expected to translate
into the central High Plains by this evening as it begins to open up
and become absorbed into a digging northern stream trof. Strong
southerly flow ahead of the system will transport moisture into the
initially very dry airmass across the forecast area this morning.
This moisture will be acted on by a lead short wave ejecting out of
the southwest system, and associated enhanced WAA/isentropic ascent.
The stronger winds aloft will help minimize surface based
instability today, but fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will still
support elevated convection. Expect numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms to break out from late morning into the afternoon
hours as the forcing moves in and the atmosphere has time to
moisten. The elevated warm layer will keep winds from getting as
strong today as they might otherwise be, but the surface gradient
and potential mixing still support gusts over 30 mph by afternoon.
The strong southerly winds, aside from transporting moisture into
the area, will also boost temperatures well above normal. Despite
the increasing clouds and precipitation threat, expect afternoon
highs to top out well into the 60s. A few 70s are possible as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Large upper low along the Utah/Nevada borer expected to contract as
it moves east today, reaching the northeast corner of Colorado this
evening before it starts to get drawn into the trough dropping
across Manitoba/western Ontario. Secondary trough expected to drop
southeast from the Dakotas on Thursday as a broad trough digs
southward from Ontario. These will be the main players over the next
couple days in terms of rain chances over our area.

Despite very high PoP`s over the area tonight, none of the models
are indicating a solid, continuous rain shield, although areas south
of I-70 would see the best odds of this happening as a cluster of
stronger thunderstorms tracks along the lower Ohio River. Thus,
precipitation will be covered with "occasional" wording. Best
thunder chances will be west of highway 51 as CAPE`s rise to 500-
1000 J/kg. As the storm system has been slowing down in recent model
runs, have made some significant adjustments to PoP`s on Thursday
and increased them to 50-60% along and east of I-57 around midday
and early afternoon. Latest SPC Day2 outlook introduced a slight
risk of severe storms from about Danville-Effingham eastward, as
CAPE`s rise to around 1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear ramps up to
around 60-70 knots. Leaned more toward the GFS timing, which has the
surface front exiting the southeast CWA by late afternoon. With the
slower frontal passage, have increased highs by several degrees
Thursday, with most areas east of I-55 reaching around 70 degrees.

Made little change to PoP`s for late Thursday night and Friday, as
the secondary trough swings through the area. As it exits, the upper
pattern will continue to focus a strong northwest flow into the
Midwest, although the colder air will provide more of a glancing
blow. Saturday night looks to be the best chance of temperatures
near or below freezing, as an area of high pressure sinks southeast
toward the Ohio Valley. However, a secondary surge of cooler air is
progged to swing through Monday night.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of the IL to along
I-57 is tracking ne around 50 mph and will affect most of the
central IL airports this afternoon. MVFR ceilings and vsbys likely
with thunderstorms and vsbys could briefly drop below 2 miles as
SPI was as low as 1/2 mile with small hail. Most of these
thunderstorms pass se of PIA next few hours and introduced
thunderstorm chances at PIA during mid/late afternoon. 998 mb
low pressure over south central Nebraska early this afternoon will
track ne to near the WI/IL border by 18Z/Thu and pull a cold front
east toward the IL river by early Thu afternoon. More
thunderstorms will likely occur tonight and develop along and
ahead of this cold front by early Thu afternoon and track into
eastern IL during mid/late Thu afternoon, just after the 24 hour
TAF window. Breezy SSW winds of 15-20 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts
will occur next 24 hours ahead of this cold front, with strongest
winds during the afternoon and again during day on Thu.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1136 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
1134 AM CDT

KJB

.SHORT TERM...
331 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVELY MILD EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES. EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE
IF ANY AT ALL TODAY...HOWEVER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOW-MID 60S SOUTH TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE
SCANT TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB
LEVEL BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE MANY DRY
HOURS TODAY...IN FACT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
WINDY...MILD...AND RAIN FREE...BUT HAVE AN UMBRELLA HANDY AS THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SPLASH AND DASH SHOWERS AROUND.

THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR, IF NOT NORTH OF, THE WI BORDER TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, MODEST INSTABILITY AND BROAD
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ALONG WITH ANY REMNANT ACTIVITY ROLLING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS TONIGHT. DEFINITELY NOT LOOKING LIKE A WASH-OUT...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS BEING OFFERED UP BY GUIDANCE
TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY...UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND RATHER
HUMID TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY HOLDING NEAR IF NOT IN
THE LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER STILL WITH PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...WHICH NOW MEANS MOST OF THE CWA WILL START
OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. NAM CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE HANGING BACK IN THE MEAN
TROUGH AND RESULTING IN STRONGER SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO
MIDDAY AND PAINTING A MUCH MORE OMINOUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER
ESPECIALLY EASTERN COUNTIES. GFS/ECMWF ARE QUICKER WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND HAVE MORE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND WOULD
LEAD TO GREATER THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST INTO IN. GIVEN THE RECENT SLOWING TREND
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A POTENTIAL GREAT
SEVERE WX THREAT LOCALLY THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM START TO
THE DAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S OVER SE CWA WHERE FROPA LOOKS TO BE
MIDDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK FOR
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
STRONG WINDS. TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...BUT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK LIKE THE GFS COULD PUT A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA FLIRTING WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
331 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL BE WITH SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDER NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTHWEST LIKELY NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS...DID PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TO THE
TERMINALS BUT COULD SEE THIS PUSHED BACK EVEN FURTHER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND WERE TO CONTINUE THEN THE BULK OF TODAY
COULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER FORCING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHEN HIGHER CHANCES FOR PREVAILING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH
THE TIMES OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE STILL IN PLACE WITH OVERALL DURATION...AS ITS POSSIBLE
THAT EVEN THIS EVENING COULD SEE PERIODIC DRY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH EVEN SCATTERED
THUNDER STILL REMAINING A POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
CONVEYED IN THE TAFS GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. VFR CEILINGS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TODAY BUT WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH LOW END MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING WITH
CONFIDENCE GROWING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS...AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL ANTICIPATED
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THURSDAY MORNING.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
309 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.

GALE WATCH...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 7
PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

LLWS is present to start the day across the central Illinois
terminals. However, within the next couple of hours, some of the
stronger winds aloft will mix down, with gusty southerly surface
winds persisting through the rest of the 12Z TAF valid time. VFR
conditions will degrade to MVFR, and possibly IFR by tonight, as
showers and thunderstorms become more numerous with the approach
of a storm system.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1028 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE ALOFT...A COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.

SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW...STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER SE MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

EXCELLENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. HRRR SHOWS AND EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE NEAR 00Z. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
A CERTAINTY AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE STORMS MAY EXIT BEFORE OR RIGHT NEAR 00Z. BEST FORCING
IS LOST BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WILL TREND
LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
UNITEDSTATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN INDIANA WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE SECOND PASSING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WEST
WINDS AND ONLY ACCESS TO LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS
GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MID
LEVEL SATURATION WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THUS A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULES OUT...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF
INDIANA...WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME
LOW CHC POPS AT NORTH AND EAST OF INDY...MAINLY DRY POPS
SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON
SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST. THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS DIVERTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW
PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT
WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER BELOW 050 HAS SCATTERED OUT...SO WILL LIFT THE
CEILING FORECAST ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KBMG...BY ISSUANCE TIME. WILL SEE
CONVECTION LINGER IN THE KBMG AREA UNTIL ABOUT 010100Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND SURFACE GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BY 010200Z. AT THIS TIME...DON/T THINK CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF
INITIAL LINE.

CEILINGS 040-050 EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY
SNEAK INTO KLAF AFTER 010600Z. SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 250-280
DEGREES WILL DIMINISH TO 7-10 KTS BY LATE EVENING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF WATERLOO WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF DENISON. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SOME CLEARING EVIDENT ON 2015Z VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE 30.20Z RUC SUGGEST SURFACE BASE
CAPE BETWEEN 700-1100 J/KG. WEAK CONVERGENCE PRESENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT HAS ALREADY SPAWNED A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OVER
CRAWFORD/CARROLL COUNTY AREA...BUT CAP IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM
FROM DEVELOPING ANY FURTHER. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH 02Z...BUT CHANCES QUICKLY WANE
AS THE SUN SETS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND EVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
REASONABLE FOR SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...BUT THE 0-1KM IS
WEAK AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TORNADIC THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN
LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND EVEN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 TO THE MISSOURI BORDER.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CAA SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH BETWEEN 06-12Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THURSDAY WILL REPRESENT A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION
DECREASING IN THE MORNING THE INCREASING CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES WILL HINGE ON LOW
LEVEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD HAVE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY HAVE SNOW FLAKES REACH INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA. POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
AREAS THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. ANOTHER PUSH FOR
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD CONDITIONS TO END THE
PERIOD.

THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
CERTAINLY READINGS WILL DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE HEADLINES MAY BE CONSIDERED AT THAT TIME.

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER FOD/MCW AND
POSSIBLY AT ALO. THE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM WRF DEPICTS CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE B/T 23Z TO 04Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-
CENTRAL IOWA. CERTAINLY CAN EXPECT SOME BRIEF IFR AND EVEN LIFR
VIS/CIGS IF CONVECTION ROLLS OVER AN AIRPORT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN MENTIONING DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN
INITIATION. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MVFR
CIGS LOOKS TO SETTLE IN AND LIKELY TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1242 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

FOCUS TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES...WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY FOR EARLY SPRING EXPECTED. A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OUT OF THE NE CWA...WITH
ANOTHER AREA IN NE NEBRASKA MOVING TOWARD THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND PUSH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD SUNRISE/MID
MORNING. THEN EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY TOWARD MID
DAY...WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY STILL EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA AROUND MID DAY.

CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS THE SFC LOW NEARS
THE STATE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO NOSE UP
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CAP TO ERODE...WITH
INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH MORE OF A UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILE...WOULD SUGGEST A SHIFT TO MORE WIND POTENTIAL AS
EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE LINEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
SFC TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. STORM INITIATION EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z PER SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
TORNADO THREAT STILL THERE AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AROUND 20KTS FOR 0-1KM...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE SYSTEM SHIFTS MORE TO A LINEAR MODE...GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR COULD STILL HAVE SOME QUICK SPIN-UPS ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LINE IF STORMS CAN STAY SFC BASED AS THE SUN SETS AND HEATING
IS LOST QUICKLY GIVEN IT IS STILL VERY EARLY SPRING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH BULK OF ANY
HIGHER END WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERNS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF DUAL LOW TROUGH AT 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR ATLANTIC TO WATERLOO. WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COMPLICATED MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING...AS BEST SHEAR WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING AND LAG THE BETTER INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUS...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
PRIOR TO 03Z ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY...
AND THEN CONTINUE A LINGERING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE FAR
SOUTH NEARER THE IA MO BORDER THROUGH 03Z AS SHEAR INCREASES WHILE
INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12 AND GFS SUGGEST THAT A
SMALL CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN IA BY 03Z. 0-3KM FORECAST HELICITY IS 200 M2/S2.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A SMALL TOR THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH BEYOND 00Z
AS UPPER LEVEL 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES AFTER 00Z INTO THE REGION.
THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED VERTICALLY
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR EPISODE...H500/H300 WINDS DO INCREASE
TO 55/95 KTS RESPECTIVELY BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD HELP LINGERING SVR
THREAT TO 03Z. BEYOND 03Z...EXPECTING MORE GENERAL THUNDER AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DECREASE THROUGH 12Z.
LINGERING WEAK MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE OVER THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE
SCT/ISO THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AS THE
LOW PULLS OUT THURSDAY THE LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY IN THE EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT
POSITION...SO FOR NOW HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
18Z AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS REFINE POSITION OF AXIS.

AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...GFS/EURO AND OTHER MED RANGE
MODELS AGREE ON RATHER POTENT SMALL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN/THEN CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY MORNING...QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE BROADENING H500 EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE AMOUNT OF GENERATED QPF DUE TO
GFS/EURO DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING FORCING AS THE FEATURE PASSES
THROUGH...CONSENSUS DOES REMAIN ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR MASS
SUPPORTING MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND ALL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM WITH COLDER AIR PLOWING INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SNOW IS NOW IN THE FORECAST...ONLY A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT MOST IS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE WARMTH
EXPECTED TODAY...AMOUNT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION...THE
GROUND IS LIKELY TO RETAIN MORE HEAT AND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS. THUS...MOST OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT. AFTER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH...LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRUSH THE 30 MARK
NORTH AND IN THE MID 30S SOUTH. AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION FRIDAY ANOTHER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER OF HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S SAT/SUN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S MONDAY ONLY TO RISE AGAIN TO THE
50S/60S BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SUCH FAST MOVING STORMS
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES HAVE RESULTED IN LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS6/7
AS WE MOVE TOWARD TUES/WED OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO SORT OUT
DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THIS
PERIOD...HELPING TO REINFORCE A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AND ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE KANSAS REGION.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS TO CENTRAL KS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SPEEDS DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FRIDAY WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING MOMENTUM TRANSFER EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH LACKING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS MARGINAL...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER
A BREEZY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY TUESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 70S/LOW
80S)...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.
ALTOCU CIGS WILL VACATE THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
BATCH MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/GUSTY WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THIS WILL KEEP GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS VERY HIGH IN CENTRAL
KS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25% WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS
FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER LEVELS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...INTO THE
FLINT HILLS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 58 33 69 / 10 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 33 57 31 69 / 10 0 0 0
NEWTON 35 56 32 66 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 37 58 33 70 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 37 58 33 69 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELL 31 55 31 67 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 32 56 31 68 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 34 56 32 67 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 33 55 31 66 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 38 60 33 69 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 38 58 33 66 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 36 56 32 64 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 38 60 32 68 / 10 0 0 0

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...JMC

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave
trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller
scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the
western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas
into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to
western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it
continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level
cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the
potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary
surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing
of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will
not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon.

Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the
afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga
showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to
around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no
indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that
anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating
precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of
an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we
will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers).

For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward,
however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep
winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest
wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the
Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into
Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF-
ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850-
700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope
from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Much of southwest Kansas is now in official drought conditions
(D1/Moderate Drought) per US Drought Monitor...primarily along and
south of the Arkansas River. The forecast period through mid next
week looks dry. The hemispheric jet stream pattern will be split
across North America through the period -- the main polar jet will
reside across southern Canada/northern CONUS as will the storm
track. The southern jet stream will be less active with a closed low
expected to form well off the southern California Coast. As long as
we continue to see a fairly fast, northern jet stream, we will not
see any precipitation (or at least meaningful precipitation) across
western Kansas. A trough will develop across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region early next week, and we should see a backdoor cold
front Monday. This would be a brief shot of cooler air which will
likely be followed be another lee trough Tuesday ahead of the next
synoptic storm system ripping across the Rockies (most likely over
us or to our north). The Tuesday system would be coming out into the
plains amidst a depleted moisture source to our south given such a
strong cold front penetration over the weekend. On the whole,
temperatures will continue to be above average with highs well into
the 70s and lower 80s ahead of fronts (Sunday and Tuesday) with
upper 60s to lower 70s behind fronts.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Evening clouds in the 5000 to 9000 ft AGL level will give way to
clearing skies early tonight as an upper level trough moves
southeast across the Central Plains. Gusty north to northwest
winds will decrease to around 10 knots after sunset as a surface
ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas overnight.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 57 30 68 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 26 56 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 30 56 30 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 29 58 29 68 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 29 55 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
P28 33 59 31 69 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

230 PM MDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT WED MAR 30 2016

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES VARIED
DRASTICALLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCATIONS IN EAST COLORADO
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 REMAIN
IN THE LOW 60S. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND THE WINDS. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10-20
MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE LOW WHILE WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
ARE NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH...GUSTING 20 MPH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MOVING EAST. ALOFT...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CUTOFF
FROM THE FLOW AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION. HAZARDS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME INCLUDE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...BLOWING DUST...THUNDERSTORMS...SNOW AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES NEAR/EXCEEDING 9 MB...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WINDS IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE. FORECAST GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH
THE FRONT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS TO 55 MPH WERE
REALIZED. IN ADDITION...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LED TO SOME
BLOWING DUST LAST EVENING WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS.
THEREFORE...WITH THE WINDS ARRIVING BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION...
PLACED BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST.

ON TO THE NEXT CONCERN...RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUNCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL. WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...DCAPE APPROACHING 600
J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 70 KTS...COULD SEE A FEW
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS/BLOWING DUST AS THE PRIMARY THREATS...
CONTINGENT IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

LATER THIS EVENING...A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ANTICIPATED AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
FORECAST RUNS...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAINS OVER YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR EVERYONE
WITH HIGHEST TOTALS...BETWEEN 0.5" AND 1.0"...OVER NORTHERN YUMA
COUNTY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS ARE POSSIBLE IF
PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY ENOUGH BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LEAD TO RAPID MELTING.

COOLER WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AS WELL TO
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20
MPH...GUSTING TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS TO
REACH STRONG WINDS ALOFT BY LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD TRANSITIONS FROM
A TROUGH OVER THE NC STATES ON FRIDAY TO A DEVELOPING BROAD RIDGE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH THEN DOMINATES THE PATTERN FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE AND NO PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG NORTH WINDS
ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH BRING DOWN COOLER AIR WITH
850 TEMPS STARTING THE DAY AROUND OC. AS A RESULT...HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT 50-55 DEGREES. AFTER THAT...
WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE WNW AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNSLOPING...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 70S SUN-TUE.

ABOUT THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 70S...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. ONE
POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTOR THOUGH MIGHT BE THE LACK OF STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH THESE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED MAR 30 2016

PATCHY MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH SITES THIS MORNING.
STRATUS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES
EAST...PULLING IN DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AS IT DOES SO. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KMCK ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT KGLD...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WAS
TOO UNCERTAIN TO PLACE INTO TAF AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE AT KGLD ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR NOW...
DID NOT REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BUT INCLUDED A 6SM BLDU GROUP.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...RRH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
251 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Our region will be placed well in the dry slot of the evolving
baroclinic system across the central Plains today and tonight.
The broad open upper low moving through Colorado weakens to an
open wave as it moves through Nebraska tonight. With our northern
counties like Trego and Ellis being on the southern periphery, we
have maintained slight pops for tonight. Thunderstorms chances in
the south central are quite low as the main moisture transport
axis has shift well into eastern Kansas this afternoon , and the
convective allowing models are persistent in cell initiation over
north central Oklahoma. Beyond significantly cooler lows tonight
by about 20 degrees owing to drier air and radiational cooling,
cooler and still windy conditions are seen Thursday afternoon. An
isolated cold air advection/instability shower or two will be
possible in the afternoon as the NAM/WRF/NMM etc, indicate low
reflectivity along the leading edge of invading late day clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

A couple of days of lingering broad upper cyclonic flow is seen in
the ECMWF/GFS. Even so, the main vorticity advection rotating
through the base appears well north in the Northern Plains at this
time. A gradual warming in the upper 70s and near 80 degrees
again by Sunday. Mild warm weather continues through the 7 day
outlook , with increasingly mild overnight lows.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Southwest Kansas will remain in the dry slot of the upper system
moving through the Central Plains today and tonight. This will
resulting a dry forecast and mainly issues of wind (and it will
be windy) direction for area terminals. At HYS, MVFR ceilings are
possible overnight as the weakening upper trough lifts across
Nebraska. General windy west southwest may lull briefly in the
evening hours before veering west northwest.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Challenging setup this afternoon for the red flag warning in the
southern counties. Just as the RH is dropping to criterion in
the extreme southwest, the winds have significantly slacked into
the 5-10 knot range. The conditions are actually close to red flag
criteria farther north, however even here the HRRR mode is
overdoing both the RH and wind with respect to critical criteria.
Either way, outdoor burning remains strongly discouraged across
all of southwest Kansas this afternoon and evening.

Cooler temperatures on Friday will make the situation not quite
as bad, however, breezy winds and teens RH values in the
afternoon will still create elevated fire weather conditions.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 61 32 58 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 34 60 28 57 / 10 20 10 0
EHA 34 58 32 55 / 10 20 10 0
LBL 36 62 33 58 / 0 20 10 0
HYS 39 58 31 55 / 20 20 10 0
P28 42 65 36 60 / 10 20 10 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ084>090.

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...MR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1229 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

An intense upper low across western UT and western AZ will shear
apart with one section of the upper trough lifting northeast across
CO into NE, which will amplify as it phases with a northern branch
upper trough digging southeast across the northern plains. The upper
trough will then move east across NE and KS Tonight.

As the H5 trough lifts northeast across CO into western NE and KS an
H5 jet max of 55 to 60 KTS will spread northeast across eastern KS
during the afternoon and evening hours. The mesoscale models such as
the ARW and NMM version of the WRF and the GFS show a round of
elevated thunderstorms developing as the upper jet lifts northeast
from the TX PNHDL into western and central KS this morning. If these
models turn out to be accurate then precip chances will be higher
across the CWA during the mid and late morning hours. These elevated
storms may rotate due to the increasing vertical windshear,so I can
not rule out some large hail. However, the NAM and RAP models do not
show elevated storms developing through the morning hours.

This afternoon and evening, the surface trough and dryline will be
moving east from western KS across central KS into the western
counties of the CWA. There are difference in the speed of the
dryline eastward progress. Most numerical model solutions move the
surface dryline along a Seneca, to Manhattan line by 6 PM this
evening. Surface convergence ahead of the dryline combined with
ascent ahead of the H5 trough will break the weak cap and cause
scattered thunderstorms to develop across northeast and east central
KS. Every model shows there will be good vertical windshear and
MLCAPE of 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG. The NAM models seems a bit too
high with forecasting around 3000 J/KG of MLCAPE across east central
KS. Instability will depend on how much elevated convection develops
this morning, if any, and if there will be any insolation for
surface heating ahead of the dryline. I think there will be widely
scattered elevated thunderstorms during the mid morning hours but
these storms should move northeast into MO by noon, then we should
see some breaks in the OVC for surface heating ahead of the dryline.
Given an environment with good vertical windshear and sufficient
instability, we should see developing thunderstorms late this
afternoon become supercell thunderstorms.

The models due vary quite a bit on how much low-level vertical
windshear will develop ahead of the dryline. The WRF model solutions
show surface and 850mb winds to veer across the warm sector late
this afternoon and early this evening. 0-1 KM SRH values are only 50
to 100 J/kg. Meanwhile the NAM model solution and to some extent the
RAP model have surface winds a bit more backed and 850mb winds are
not as veered. The NAM develops about 100 to 200 j/kg of SRH, which
would be more conducive for any supercell thunderstorms to produce
tornadoes. Even if winds are a bit veered as the mesoscale models
forecast, I cannot rule out a few weak tornadoes. If the low-level
winds back more ahead of the dryline then the tornado threat will be
greater and the tornadoes may be more intense. Any supercell
thunderstorms will also produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Most of the numerical models shift the threat for severe storms east
of the CWA during the mid evening hours. The NAM model hangs up the
dryline across the eastern counties of the CWA and storms continue
to shift northeast across east central KS. I think over the mid
evening hours the isolated supercells will evolve into line segment
with the main hazards being damaging winds and perhaps some flash
flooding if training of storms occur across the southeast counties
of the CWA. The NAM model finally shifts the thunderstorms east of
the CWA after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

Early Thursday morning a shortwave on the base of the main upper
level trough will be over northeast Kansas. There remains a small
chance for rain near the Nebraska boarder Thursday morning with
soundings showing decent saturation and forcing in the lower levels
of the atmosphere. Most the afternoon Thursday should be dry across
the area before another shortwave passes just north of the area and
rain chances clip extreme northeast Kansas. From here,
precipitation chances end for the rest of the period. Winds shift
from the south overnight Saturday, leading to a warm and dry Sunday
with highs in the middle to low 70s. Sunday afternoon these
southerly winds will gust up to 25kts, creating possible elevated
fire concerns for this day. The rest of the period stays mild with
highs generally in the upper 60s or low 70s and lows in the 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MVFR cigs are expected to continue through the 20Z. VCTS is introduced
at all terminals beginning at 21Z as scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along a dryline as it pushes east across the
area. Any lingering thunderstorm activity should exit the area
from west to east this evening, 01Z at MHK and 03Z at the Topeka
terminals. Winds will then veer to the WNW as a cold front passes
across the area overnight. Low cigs are still possible with the
cold front passage, however maintain scattered MVFR and will
continue to evaluate in future outlooks.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

630 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MVFR cigs will continue through through the early afternoon hours
at all terminals. Thunderstorms will be possible after 21Z at all
terminals. The threat for thunderstorms will continue into the
evening and early overnight hours before a cold front pushes all
activity to the east. The cold front will also shift winds to a
WNW direction by 4Z in MHK and 6Z at the Topeka terminals. Low
cigs are possible behind the cold front, however confidence is too
low at this point to introduce MVFR or lower cigs. Will
reevaluate in later outlooks.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

352 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

Little change to the existing TAF other than minor adjustments to
the arrival timing of MVFR cigs. These cigs are currently in south
central KS and should move over TAF sites by 09Z or so. Initially
around 2500 feet, should fall closer to 1500 feet within 1-2 hours
of arrival. Cigs will lift/scatter between 16z-19z with TS
possible any time after 21Z and through the remainder of the TAF
with limited confidence in exact timing.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1206 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

Have been closely monitoring incoming model data this evening, and
the 01Z RAP, 00Z NAM, and 00Z HRRRexp have been showing some
interesting model trends. First off, the trend has been toward
slightly higher dewpoints by early afternoon with low 60s
dewpoints into eastern KS. Another trend has been for the dryline
to be setting up a bit farther to the west. At 19Z, the HRRRexp
has the dryline from Minneapolis to Washington while the RAP is
along Highway 81 and the NAM another 20 miles west. All models
indicate at least some modification/mixing of low level moisture
immediately in advance of the approaching dryline with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60. Afternoon surface winds are showing
a consistent trend to have a westerly component and be veered as
the surface low passes through eastern Nebraska. However, some
concern remains for localized backing of winds between 21Z and 03Z
as a new surface low deepens in south central KS.

These are early indications, but all point to a continued and
increasing severe weather threat across eastern Kansas between
about 4 PM and 10 PM (or possibly later if the dryline stalls).
Supercells look to be the primary storm mode but if winds remain
veered into the late afternoon and evening could see more of a
straight line hodograph with storm splitting and interaction,
possibly resulting in some upscale growth and mixed modes. The
take-away right now, based again on very early indications, is
that the severe potential certainly exists through late afternoon
and the evening with large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes all
possible. If winds back ahead of the developing surface low in the
evening and if dewpoints hold in the low 60s, then the tornado
threat could increase markedly.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

Elongated upper low was centered over the Inter-mountain West with a
secondary shortwave trough continuing to drop south out of Manitoba
territory. At the sfc, strong pressure gradient across the state
with the sfc low over southeast CO has contributed to gusty
southeast winds this afternoon in the 15 to 25 mph sustained range.
Lower dewpoint temps across far eastern and northeast Kansas in
addition to highs reaching the 60s has resulted in very high fire
danger conditions across east central and far northeast Kansas.

For this evening, the winds will persist in strength as the sfc low
deepens eastward with an upper vorticity maxima ejecting northeast
towards the northern plains. Southerly winds sustain between 15 and
25 mph at the sfc with occasional gusts up to 35 mph as the low
level jet increases. Initial wave of lift will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to north central KS after midnight. Expect
this activity to spread east over the CWA through the morning hours.
This activity is not expected to be severe with the MU Cape values
generally below 600 J/KG. In addition to the overcast skies,
forecast soundings show much of the moisture in the lowest levels of
the atmosphere coinciding with the best forcing, indicative of light
drizzle during this time as well. How quickly this precip dissipates
allowing skies to clear out is variable depending on the model,
leading to some uncertainty to how the afternoon evolves. The WRF
models and the GFS have been consistently faster to clear skies
and the dry line towards the MO/KS border by late afternoon while
the NAM, ECMWF, and SREF runs have been consistently slower,
focusing the eastern half of the CWA in a more favorable area.

These factors have lead to some uncertainty in fire danger
conditions and severe convection developing in the late afternoon
and evening hours. More details are mentioned in the next period.
For highs on Wednesday, while depth of cloud cover and presence of
precip is still uncertain, strong warm advection ahead of the
dryline should help support temps reaching the lower 70s, possibly
mid 70s over north central KS as the dryline passes. RH values
therefore may quickly fall in north central areas to the lower 20
percent range in the late afternoon. Wind speeds at this time remain
marginal at 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph so will not
mention headlines at this point. However, very high fire danger is
likely.

Main concern this forecast period will be the threat for strong to
severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across portions of eastern
KS. During the early afternoon a dry line will push eastward through
the forecast area. This dry line will separate deep mixing from the
deep low level moisture to the east. Soundings show that surface
heating along with mid level cooling associated with the approaching
trough will erode the cap in place. This will allow thunderstorms to
form along the dry line during the late afternoon. If the surface
heating remains limited due stratus east of the dry line then
convective initiation may be difficult or delayed.

The cape seems to vary between the models, but with a dew point in
the upper 50s to near 60, and steep mid level lapse rates it should
yield around 1000 to 1500 j/kg of MLcape if the stratus can manage
to clear out. With the approaching mid level system deep layer shear
will be on the order of 50 to 60 kts. The hodographs are mainly
straight line with the exception of the NAM. The NAM shows some
localized backed winds in the low levels and a strengthening low
level jet, which causes 0-3 km SRH values to approach 400. In
reality those values may be closer to 100 to 200. Storms if they
develop will be moving at 50 mph to the northeast. All of these
parameters will support supercell development with large hail and
damaging wind as the main threats. Although given this environment
some tornadoes will be possible as well. The 0-1 km and 0-3 km
bulk shear values could support mesovortex circulations if cold
pools were to congeal into any line segments. There is split model
solutions on where the dry line will be when storms develop. The
farthest west seems to be a line from Washington to Dickinson counties,
while the farthest east would be Jefferson to Anderson counties.
So quite some spread that leads to some uncertainty in this
forecast. The earliest models develop convection appears to be
around 4 pm, and given the storm motion should clear the forecast
area by 7 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

Thursday morning the synoptic cold front slides through the forecast
area. Frontogenesis should provide enough lift for scattered showers
mainly across northern KS. Initially there may be some mid level dry
air to overcome before precipitation can reach the ground. Another
shortwave will track towards the area in the northwest flow, which
should clip northeast KS Thursday morning. This wave will bring the
chance for showers after the low levels become saturated. The
pattern remains quiet heading into the extended as northwest flow
aloft continues.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Bowen/Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

942 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO REMOVE A LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND
RADAR IMAGERY. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WAS ALSO UPDATED TO MENTION ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE
FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE
FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS FOR NOW AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO SOME OF
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A
COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH
A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR
FORCING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A
HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM
THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS
IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT
EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS
LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD...
DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME
FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS
WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT
THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...SME AND LOZ WILL BE EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS COULD
CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEALTH OF THE STORMS AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS SYM...JKL...AND SJS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 8 AND 11Z TONIGHT. BKN TO OVC
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AND WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z ON FRIDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

129 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RETURN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FURTHER TWEAK TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE
MAINLY RAISED SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH OBS AND LATEST HRRR GRIDS.
REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS
LATE TONIGHT. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY DUE TO THE DEEP
MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. A
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS WEAK. KEPT IN THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO ONTARIO FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INTRODUCED A BRIEF INCREASE IN
POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL THE FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES...ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH...SHOULD
KEEP PERIODIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH HIGH CLOUDS.
SURFACE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THE LATE EVENING...NECESSITATING A LLWS
MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL START TO LOWER
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY COLD
FRONT...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CALLS TO FORESTRY PARTNERS INDICATED THAT FUELS WERE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER
OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1131 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RETURN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FURTHER TWEAK TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE
MAINLY RAISED SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH OBS AND LATEST HRRR GRIDS.
REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEARLY CALM WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHEAST
THEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...EVEN AS GUSTS DECREASE. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 KTS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LLWS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A THU/FRI COLD FRONT...AND
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

929 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RETURN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS/RH SOMEWHAT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL
LIKELY MIX DOWN. USED HRRR DEWPOINTS AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME
TWEAKS. MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS WELL. REST UNCHANGED FOR
NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEARLY CALM WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHEAST
THEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...EVEN AS GUSTS DECREASE. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 KTS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LLWS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A THU/FRI COLD FRONT...AND
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK IS POSSIBLE TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW FUELS WILL
COMBINE TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF FIRES. CURRENTLY THE DRIEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED
THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONDITIONS WORSEN OR LOW HUMIDITIES BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...A FIRE HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

955 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST PART. REGIONAL RADAR DATA DOES SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO SRN LAKE MI...ALONG A SECONDARY SFC
TROUGH AXIS. CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG THIS LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH
OVER SE MI WILL ALSO BE LACKING...ADDING LITTLE SUPPORT TO ADD
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE NIGHT FORECAST. SKIES HAVE
TEMPORARILY CLEARED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
SHOWERS. A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
LOWER CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A NEED TO ADD DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FRI
MORNING...SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE. THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO REFINE CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 650 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS HEADED THIS WAY WILL PASS THROUGH LOCALS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF FNT BETWEEN 2330Z AND 0030Z. THESE STORMS MARK
THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THEIR PASSAGE...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
W-SW AND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS POST FRONTAL MIXING DEPTHS LOWER.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EXPECTATION OF SOME RAPID
MOISTENING UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CEILING HEIGHTS DURING THE COURSE OF
THE EVENING. THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AMID LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS AND SOME ADDED
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

FOR DTW...THE HIGH INTENSITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO METRO BETWEEN 2330Z AND 00Z AND SHOULD EXIT EAST BY 01Z. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER 30 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING. HIGH OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

* HIGH IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DISCUSSION...

WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND
THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A
BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION
OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED
WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN
THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER,
GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL
TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY
IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES
OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE
DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S
THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO
AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS
IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.

VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR
SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING
OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE
DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS
SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST
LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL.
THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF
EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY
NEARS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END
OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE
TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND.

HYDROLOGY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING
HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ361.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...JVC/RK
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

650 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING. HIGH OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

* HIGH IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...JVC/RK
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

122 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG BLDG
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 80M AT GRB
AND APX...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER THE WRN CONUS.
SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS ARE RESULTING IN QUIET WX OVER THE CWA DESPITE
INCRSG HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN INCRSG SLY FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
HI PRES TO THE SE AND FALLING MSLP IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF
WRN TROF. DESPITE THE INCRSG HI CLD COVER...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 50S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF...ESPECIALLY WHERE SLY FLOW
IS DOWNSLOPING. SOME RA TO THE NE OF SFC WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS MOVED AS FAR NE AS FAR SW MN THIS AFTN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS AND TIMING
ARRIVAL OF RA AHEAD OF PLAINS SFC LO PRES/WARM FNT FCST TO APRCH FM
THE SW.

TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL
AIR...INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC RELATED TO SHARPENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MSTR ADVECTION BEST SHOWN ON THE 290 AND 295K SFCS /ABOUT H8-
7/ AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX FCST NEAR JAMES BAY AT
12Z WED WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. MORE PERSISTENT LLVL DRY AIR OVER THE SE HALF
CLOSER TO DEPARTING SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WL HOLD
DOWN POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH THE THICKENING CLDS AND STEADY SSW
WINDS...THE OVERNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH SFC
TEMPS FCST TO HOLD WELL ABOVE 32...THERE WL BE NO FROZEN/FRZG PCPN.

WED...PERIODS OF RA UNDER AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/290-295K ISENSTROPIC ASCENT WL BE
THE RULE. A SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHRTWV IN THE NRN
BRANCH FLOW IS FCST TO REACH THE NW CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECWMF...SUGGESTS SOME
MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NRN BRANCH FLOW MAY RESULT IN
DIMINISHING POPS OVER AT LEAST THE FAR NW LATE IN THE DAY. SO FCST
WL RETAIN SOME LOWERING OF POPS IN THAT AREA TOWARD 00Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER SHOULD REMAIN IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE
RIDGE WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TOP OUT AT 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP TROFFING INTO
SE CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO SAT. WHILE CORE OF A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR WILL
PASS BY TO THE NE...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BLO CLIMATOLOGY HERE INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR
EARLY APR STANDARDS THIS WEEKEND. MODERATION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HELPS
TO MAINTAIN ERN TROFFING. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MODERATION BACK TOWARD
MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...
TEMPS COULD FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT THRU THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS
MODELS SUGGEST WRN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY AT TIMES...ALLOWING LINGERING
COLD AIR IN CANADA TO DUMP S BRIEFLY BEHIND PASSING SHORTWAVES. AS
FOR PCPN...EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...PCPN WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE MAIN PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU.
SHORTWAVE PASSING FRI WILL PRODUCE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHSN. CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHSN. AFTER THE WEEKEND...THERE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY IN PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL PCPN.
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AND RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGEST THE NEXT BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WOULD OCCUR AROUND WED.

BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PHASING IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU
MANITOBA. BASED ON YESTERDAYS AND TODAY GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP WINTER
STORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND OF HVY PCPN WILL EVOLVE
FROM THIS COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT SOME
MDT TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T OCCUR SOMEWHERE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NARROW IN ON A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN
PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI AND THRU THE STRAITS AREA...AND ALL AVBL 12Z
MODELS NOW SHOW QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR
INTO UPPER MI WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS
CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST S WITH COLDER AIR AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT EACH
TIME STEP LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU. IN EXCLUDING THE NAM...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX GRADUALLY WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE WED
NIGHT/THU...BEGINNING NW LATE WED EVENING AND NOT REACHING THE SE
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN THU. WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEVELOPED
SYSTEM/DEFORMATION PCPN...HEAVIER PCPN WILL NOT EXTEND TOO FAR NW
INTO THE COLDER AIR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
MAX SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVY RANGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE NW HALF
OF UPPER MI. PER 00Z AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE AREA
ROUGHLY FROM WATERSMEET/IRON RIVER NE THRU MICHIGAMME/NEGAUNEE
SHOULD BE THE APPROXIMATE ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACHED...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY FALLING DURING THE DAY THU WHEN WEAK SOLAR
INSOLATION WILL AID MELTING...WATCH HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL THEN SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING SCT TO NMRS -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CHILLY 500MB TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID -30S C.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHSN. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO
-17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT
SCENARIO SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE AS DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTS LES
PROCESSES AND LEADS TO SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN VIGOROUS SHSN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT. -SHSN
WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH MODERATING
TEMPS ALOFT AND LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW...MAY NOT SEE MUCH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AFTER LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN
BY DAYTIME HEATING.

HEADING INTO MON/TUE...THE LAST DAY OR SO OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
HAVE SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE INTO THE RETREATING ERN TROF.
ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WEAK SFC WAVE TRACKING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR WOULD GENERATE A STREAK OF SN
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
SUN NIGHT/MON. UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS FOR POPS
(MOSTLY SCHC) DUE TO THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE A POTENTIAL MIXED
PCPN EVENT WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AT ALL SITES. GUSTY S
WINDS UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES
AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE PLAINS WL GIVE WAY TO SOME LLWS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCRSG NEAR SFC STABILITY AT KSAW. AS THE SSW FLOW TAPS MOISTER
AIR WED MRNG...EXPECT SOME -RA TO ARRIVE AND CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR
IN THE MORNING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD AND LAST AT KSAW. BY
AFTERNOON...KIWD AND KCMX WILL BE LIFR AND KSAW WILL BE MVFR UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL STAY LIFR IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT BETWEEN
DEPARTING HI PRES AND LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...
EXPECT SSW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NNW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONGER NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS
WILL BE THE RULE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS A LO PRES RIDES NE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THERE COULD BE SOME GALES ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF ON THU. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS LO TO
THE NE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE ON FRI. EXPECT
ANOTHER LO TO TRACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE AT NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS COULD REACH AS HI AS 30
TO 35 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUN WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
TRAILING HI PRES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead
of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This
shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and
southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model
guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable
rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with
mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west
central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid
level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and
central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight.
There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ
southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually
dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into
southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due
to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew
points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb
isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows
tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close
to seasonal normals for early April.

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois,
and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be
ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty
quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out
at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well
defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move
southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a
corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over
northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the
midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern
sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows,
highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s
highs.

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period.

Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late
in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but
esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach
during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal
ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon,
before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing
another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if
timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop.

This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The
best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the
area.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset
this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around
mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR
flight conditions are expected through the period with several
periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on
Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period.

This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The
best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the
area.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the
next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the
northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as
the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast
area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are
possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association
with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough,
but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The
expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also
keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions
and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and
into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler
temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could
result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri.

Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high
point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface
flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region
Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild
conditions around for any evening activities across the region.

The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of
the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture
accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region
dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with
the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday
night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the
end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period;
however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and
could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving
the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Expect VFR conditions with SCT/BKN low/mid level clouds overnight.
There could be a stray sprinkle here or there, but nothing that
should change any flight categories or affect any flights. Winds
will pick up to around 15 to 25 kts mid morning Friday morning, and
might actually gust to around 30 kts with better mixing. Will stick
with 16G22KT for now and adjust up in future forecasts if necessary.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period.

This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The
best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the
area.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period.

This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The
best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the
area.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a
cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure
will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough
transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this
trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are
expected to stay above freezing.

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region
Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds.

These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an
elevated fire weather risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night
providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect
overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the
freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present
the potential for a light freeze and light frost.

A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly
upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated
with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather
risk.

A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue
Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage
will occur Monday.

The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next
week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the
region.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no
low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight
and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as
high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region
Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds.

These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an
elevated fire weather risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue
Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage
will occur Monday.

The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next
week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the
region.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period.

This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The
best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the
area.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the
way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and
IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not
last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings
behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another
upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region
late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain
primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high
confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with
VFR for now.

Specifics for KSTL:

Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through
KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which
could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I
expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR
conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail
thereafter.

Carney

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 45 59 38 59 / 10 10 5 0
Quincy 40 52 34 54 / 30 30 10 0
Columbia 40 56 35 60 / 10 10 5 0
Jefferson City 41 58 35 61 / 10 10 5 0
Salem 43 57 37 58 / 10 5 10 0
Farmington 42 61 35 61 / 10 5 5 0

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Dry Weather with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns through this
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region
Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds.

These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an
elevated fire weather risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue
Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage
will occur Monday.

The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next
week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the
region.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower
cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the
afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds
lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing
through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no
precipitation is expected.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above
between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this
evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on
Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained
speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts
during daylight hours both days.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1250 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment
will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the
cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see
redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and
southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg
ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level
jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along
and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat
being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out
of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold
front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north
to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern
IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and
thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide
through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered
showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late
tonight through Friday afternoon.

Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on
Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area
Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary
moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to
mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any
possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this
front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before
diminishing Saturday evening.

Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday
with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of
forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system
through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of
showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a
bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before
warming up some next Wednesday.

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and
triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest
mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of
inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of
anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been
brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that
heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of
severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight
drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of
small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition
will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the
extremely strong winds aloft.

For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are
expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with
clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal
warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is
actually normal anyway.

Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and
bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect
will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see
below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing
temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when
low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures
rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to
climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the
mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting
aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the
remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress
through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler
air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low
level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several
mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing
temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much
greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress
through the Spring vegetation emergence.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over
eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that
extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the
cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already
been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some
lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly
over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of
very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500
j/kg over southern MO.

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front
bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are
still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over
the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to
watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far
eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection
off to our east and southeast.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but
some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in
the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying
microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look
to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and
frost potential.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri
night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs
in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air
mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the
low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal
for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing
and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS
MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry,
so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more
shifts to look at this.

Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid
level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures
over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry
frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement
in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed
with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with
a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much
moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at
least some low probability rain chances.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A
cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds
veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph
during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the
front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will
move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained
winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will
subside after sunset.

Browning

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5
Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5
Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5
Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5
Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5
Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Browning

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with
periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of
fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by
afternoon.

West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this
evening.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with
periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of
fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by
afternoon.

West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this
evening.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals
this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR
ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are
doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower
ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon
VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the
west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and
early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to
monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will
eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions
on Thursday.

Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where
visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this
fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin
are not likely to receive this dense fog.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will
continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the
07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to
develop across the region and become more widespread overnight,
lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end
IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into
early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area
from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be
gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front
and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or
just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should
improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west.

Specifics for KSTL:

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will
continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period.
Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions
due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A
strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early
Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds
will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the
front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close
to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions
should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and
west.

Glass
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 40 10 10 5
Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 30 20 30 5
Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5
Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5
Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5
Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 50 10 10 5

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm
threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO
to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage
of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding
suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side
of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE
so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend
if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much
of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could
also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and
west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of
a secondary cold front.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern
Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper
level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across
central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more
slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this
afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern
Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The
potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically
and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow
axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable
environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks.

Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally
along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with
lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri
Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms
with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized
flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same
locations.

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week
bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday
night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the
middle of next week.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Most of the showers were moving into southwest IL this evening
with just a little patchy light rain elsewhere. Thunderstorms
across parts of southwest MO are expected to weaken late this
evening, but will likely move northeastward into parts of central
and southeast MO towards midnight or shortly thereafter. The
latest HRRR model runs indicate that most of the showers/storms
should shift southeast of our forecast area by about 10Z early
Thursday morning. It appears that the severe potential has
lessened for the rest of tonight, although could not rule out
isolated, elevated convection containing heavy rainfall and hail.
With plenty of cloud cover, south-southeasterly surface winds and
relatively strong southwesterly low level winds, and high surface
dew points should not see much of a nocturnal temperature drop
with temperatures holding nearly steady. Low temperatures tonight
will be about 20 degrees above normal for late March.

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Swly flow continues to pump moisture nwd into the area this
afternoon. This is expected to continue into at least the evening
hours with precip dissipating overnight. However, is some
uncertainty regarding how the precip will evolve tonight. Most mdl
guidance suggests ongoing precip shifting nwd and ewd over the
next few hours, leaving a lull earlier in the evening. While a
lull is expected between the WAA precip and a line of storms that
will push out ahead of the cdfnt later tonight, exactly where and
when this occurs is more uncertain. Have kept PoPs tonight rather
high due to ongoing and more stratiform precip between cells. The
bulk of the precip shud exit ern portions of the CWA by sunrise
Thurs.

The cdfnt associated with this system is expected to be just W of
the CWA at 12z Thurs. Mdls prog a leading s/w lifting nwd thru wrn
and nrn portions of the CWA around sunrise. This may allow for
some sunrise surprise storms before lifting out of the area. This
shud leave the remainder of the morning dry as the cdfnt continues
to push ewd.

Because of the slower timing of the cdfnt, have raised temps a
fair amount in some areas compared to the prev forecast. Given
that parts of KS still climbed into the mid 70s today behind the
fnt, the going forecast for parts of cntl and into nern MO may be
too cool. However, with more question of cloud cover, esp further
N, trended a little cooler, but still twd the warmest guidance.

This will also allow for TSRA to develop along the fnt as it
pushes sewd thru the area. Expect TSRA to develop along the fnt
during the early, to perhaps mid, afternoon mainly over the ern
portions of the CWA. However, am a little concerned that mdls are
pushing the fnt thru the area too quickly and have pulled PoPs wwd
during the day to account for this. While TSRA may develop across
nrn portions of the CWA or just N, develop shud continue swwd
along the fnt as the upper trof helps cool temps aloft and the cap
erodes.

Given forecast parameters, expect supercells to develop along the
fnt. While all severe threats will be possible, believe large hail
will initially be the primary threat until the storms reach far
ern portions of the CWA where low level shear is greater posing a
greater tornado threat. However, there is some uncertainty
regarding coverage as mdls are currently suggesting much of the
cap eroding during the day. While storms may be discrete, there
may not be much space between them later in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Main changes to the forecast thru the rest of this week was to
lower PoPs on Fri. Mdls keep much of the precip N of the area as
the upper trof rotates thru. Did not completely remove PoPs during
the afternoon as some SHRA activity is possible. Will need to
watch temps for Fri night with guidance showing close to the
freezing mark. However, with continued mixing expected overnight,
winds may remain strong enuf to prevent frost from forming.

For the weekend and beyond, not a lot of changes made from the
prev forecast. More roller coaster temps expected with a rather
strong cdfnt bringing a low chance for precip on Mon. This fnt
will bring much cooler air into the area, and yet another possible
freeze/frost event with light winds expected as the sfc ridge
builds into the area.

Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet
another chance for precip.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1139 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE UTAH AND
NEVADA BORDER. 100 METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA
INTO NRN AZ AND A 90 KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM SAN DIEGO...TO
FLAGSTAFF AZ. UPSTREAM OF THE LOW...RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
OZARKS NWD INTO NRN MINNESOTA...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION...LED TO THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SWRN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 54 AT ONEILL TO
65 AT NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD...THE MAIN
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THE LATEST NAM12...GFS AND HRRR SOLNS
INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NEBR/CO BORDER AROUND 23Z THIS
EVENING...LIFTING THIS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND NWRN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOTED
TONIGHT WITH 40 TO 60 KTS NOTED. HOWEVER MEAGER CAPES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG EXIST...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MARGINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO GIVEN
THE STRONG APPROACHING LOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A STRONG TS THREAT GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO
VALENTINE LINE. OVERNIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
IN THE VICINITY OF A H7 FRONT WHICH IS ANCHORED ALONG THE SD/NEBR
BORDER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS WELL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS H800 LI/S REMAIN NEGATIVE ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...I KEPT IN A
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE INHERITED FCST. SHIFTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PANHANDLE
INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDS AM...AIR WILL COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A NICE AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WEDS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EAST..IT
OPENS UP AS IT INCREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY TIGHT WINDOW FOR
CONDS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THIS WINDOW HAS BECOME SMALLER WITH THIS
MORNINGS MODEL RUNS AS H85 TEMPS ARE NOW RUNNING 1-2C WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE NORTHWEST...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 3-6 HR
WINDOW WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. ATTM THAT IS APPROXIMATELY
FROM 15 TO 21Z WEDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...CUT BACK SNOW ACCUMS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND NOW HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR WEDS AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. FURTHER EAST...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDS AFTN AND EVE AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDS AM. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN FOR A STRONG STORM MAY LIE IN
THE FAR NERN CWA WHICH MAY END UP INVOF OF A WARM FRONT WEDS AFTN.
THIS IS MORE FAVORED WITH THE GFS SOLN AS THE NAM12 HAS THIS FRONT
SE OF THE AREA BY 21Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

00Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A MARKED DECREASE IN INTENSITY WELL BEFORE
06Z. THE DECREASE IN QPF HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND ULJ DIVE SOUTH FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS SHOWN TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED FOR AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF QPF BEGINNING LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF
IS SHOWN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE OMEGA IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN OVER SNOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE 18Z AND AFTER 00Z AS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH THE DIURNAL TREND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT. DUE
TO RAPID COOLING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SHOWN IN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THUS SHOWERS ARE PREFERRED...BUT
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY ADVANCES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH QPF
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BEYOND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE
FORECAST TURNS DRY WITH A STARK WARMING TREND. THIS IS DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE RIDGE
WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AT DAY 7 OR BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO THIS EVENING TRACKS EAST
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM WAS PREFERRED AS IT FARTHEST SOUTH. THIS WOULD
INCREASE THE RISK OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING THUS FAR.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
PROGESSING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN
IFR/LIFR ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004-094.

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE RAP...HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR ALL APPEAR TO BE ASSIMILATING EVENING
RADAR TRENDS ACCURATELY AND WITH A SUPPORTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE BACK-
GROUND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST QG FORCING AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THEY ALL SUGGEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WE THUS UTILIZED
A TIME-LAGGED CONSENSUS OF THAT GUIDANCE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 08 AND 12 UTC AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT DUE
IN PART TO THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
AS EVIDENCED BY ANOTHER SET OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED IN OLIVER COUNTY BETWEEN 0200 AND 0230 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS UPDATE FOCUSED ON MINOR REFINEMENTS TO POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND
EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. THE BAND
OF RAIN AND MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS FROM MINOT SOUTHWARD
TO GARRISON AND ELGIN AT 23 UTC IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...IT WAS OUTPACING THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST A BIT. INTERESTINGLY...THERE WERE A FEW...MAINLY IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST ND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NONE HAVE
BEEN DETECTED SINCE 2140 UTC AND THE WEAK SBCAPE SHOWN BY THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS OVER THAT REGION IS WANING. THUS...WE REFRAINED FROM
ADDING ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

FOLLOWING TWO FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TRACKING RATHER QUICKLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS PRODUCED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SO FAR TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY EARLY EVENING. A SECOND FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...WAS
KICKING UP SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL TRACK
THIS AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE HRRR POP TRENDS...
BUT HAD TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS ITS MOVING A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR TIME LAG ENSEMBLE.

FOR THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WIND GUSTS EARLIER
TODAY AROUND 55 MPH WERE SEEN AT HETTINGER. WINDS NOW FALLING TO
THE MID 30S FOR GUSTS AND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

ON FRIDAY...THE PRECIP WILL END BY SUNRISE. WILL STILL HAVE A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH FRIDAY 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH JUST A SMALL HINT OF CAPE ON
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT
THIS TIME BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A MENTION.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...DO NOT SEE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT WINDS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
UNTIL BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING TO
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AFTER 18 UTC.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL DOWN OVER SE WY/NE CO/NEB
PANHANDLE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. MOST OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT DOWN THROUGH ND LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL SD BY TOMORROW. BOTH THE SHORT/HIGH RES
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL RUNS BRING SOME HEALTHY
QPF INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
AND RAP BOTH HAVE SOME FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
WITH GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z THURSDAY...THE
BEST FRONTOGENESIS/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO PRECIP TYPE.
THE SREF PROBABILITIES HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP...BUT TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC
LOW IN CANADA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. 925MB TEMPS ARE
RIGHT AT THE 0 C MARK...BUT SOME DYNAMIC COOLING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. INCLUDED SOME SNOW MIXING IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND PUT AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY HIGHLIGHT OUT
AT THIS POINT. THINK THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN AND HELP PUSH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT
GIVEN OUR TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE THESE TYPE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
WILL BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY WITH 20S AND 30S ON
SATURDAY. THINK THAT PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW...AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SAT
WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MON AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MEANS NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED... SLIGHTLY COOLER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN THROUGHOUT
TUES... IMPLYING WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS IN WESTERN ND SHOULD HAVE
A WARMING WESTERLY COMPONENT. ON WED A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA... BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE CLIPPED KFAR/KBJI THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS. NOW QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS IS FORMING IN THE SUNNY
REGION JUST BEHIND THESE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE
THIS CUMULUS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EITHER A SCT OR BKN LAYER. NORTH WINDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ON THU MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY BY MID MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS...MODELS ALSO BRING IN SOME PCPN THU MORNING.
NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX...SO FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A MIX AND LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE A LITTLE BETTER. NAM/GFS
WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THIS IN WITH THE ECMWF ONLY BRINGING
IT INTO KDVL ON THU MORNING. SO THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1237 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE RAIN SO
HAVE USED THAT FOR LATEST UPDATE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 00-01 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RAIN BAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

INCREASED POPS ACROSS GRANT...MORTON AND OLIVER COUNTIES THIS
EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS OF AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE NOT
BEEN WELL RESOLVED BY THE 18-21 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST REGION OF NEVADA/UTAH...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LEAD
S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE LOW EJECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ECHOS ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND
ANOTHER LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS MOVING NORTH OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRONT.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STALLS
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS TONIGHT...BAND OF
PRECIPITATION NOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
00Z...THEN DISSIPATES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WED AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING NORTH AND WEST OF THAT AREA.

NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS AN EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM S/WV MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. INITIALLY RAIN IS
FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MIX THEN ALL SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THUR AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO
THE REGION. 1-2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SNOW AND BUFKIT
INDICATING A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SUPERSATURATION AND
OMEGA PEAKED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
MAY BE OBSERVED WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS NOW FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
SO PLAN TO REMOVE THIS WORDING FROM THE HWO. FOR FRIDAY...MODELS
BRING IN A DEEPER SFC LOW AND GREATER PRESSURE RISES AS A CLIPPER
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL THUS BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHT MOISTURE CHANCES. NAM BUFKIT INDICATING WARNING CRITERIA
WIND MAGNITUDES WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WILL WANT TO MONITOR
THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WILL MENTION THE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY
IN THE THE HWO ALONG WITH THE WET SNOW/TRAVEL IMPACT POTENTIAL
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

MAINLY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY HIGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MVFR CIGS OVER PTNS OF S CTRL ND WITH -SHRA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO VFR LEVELS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS MAINLY
VFR. THIS EVENING...AREAS OF -RA/-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH LCL IFR VIS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1237 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FIRE WEATHER AND 30/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS VALID FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAPID SCAN SATELLITE
OPERATIONS ARE BEING UTILIZED TO MONITOR FOR NEW FIRE IGNITIONS.

CRITICALLY DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND TOWARD WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE WEST OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THE MOST FIRE EFFECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 3-7 PM...WHEN RH/WIND COMBINATIONS WILL APPROACH
AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE AS LAST
WEEK...BUT POSITIVE EFFECTS OF THE WEEKEND MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
MITIGATED IN FINE FUELS AND A FAVORABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR FIRE
IS IDENTIFIED WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE BEING OVERSPREAD BY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE FOR MAINTAINING THE REPORTED 95 PERCENT CONTAINMENT OF THE
ANDERSON CREEK FIRE GIVEN TODAY/S CRITICAL WEATHER...AND
MONITORING FOR NEWLY DETECTED FIRE STARTS.

LINDLEY

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VCTS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR
AVIATORS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST FOR AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. VIS SAT AND OBS SHOW
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS... BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE
EAST. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... GUSTING 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WILL IMPACT WESTERN AIRFIELDS. WINDS OVERALL WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

KURTZ

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY/TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY... I/VE STARTED... STOPPED... AND RE-WROTE THIS AFD
SEVERAL TIMES IN THE LAST HOUR... SO YES... IT/S A MESSY CONVECTIVE
SET UP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FROM 16Z
SFC ANALYSIS... CONVERGENCE OF SFC WINDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...
MID TO UPPER 60S... HAVE POOLED ALONG A SUBTLE 850/700MB FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE CHANCES FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON HAIL... WITH 1 TO 1 AND HALF INCH HAIL
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. BIG DISCUSSION IN THE OFFICE
AT THE MOMENT IS THE THOUGHT THAT THIS MAY BE THE EVENT FOR TODAY...
AS THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE SOME... POSSIBLY MODERATE IMPACT... ON
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND... THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAS DONE WELL OVER ITS LAST THREE RUNS
WITH THIS INITIAL CONVECTION AND WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT
INTO THE AFTERNOON. I/LL TOUCH MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FIRST... DON/T FORGET FIRE WEATHER... IMPRESSIVE DEW POINTS UP
STREAM IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AS THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. AS THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST THROUGH 1 TO 3 PM ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... RH VALUES WILL TANK INTO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS... WHILE ALREADY BREEZY S/SW WINDS INCREASE...
BECOMING MORE W/SW WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. AT PRESENT TIME... DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... 16Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SFC TROUGH/ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE PUSH OF THIS BOUNDARY... CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO BREAK ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY... BUT
DISSIPATION IS SLOW... HAVE SEEN A FEW BREAKS AT THE OFFICE... AND
ON VIS... SO EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT/INITIAL CONVECTION PUSHES EAST. COULD SEE A
SHORT BREAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE DRY LINE
MAKES ITS SURGE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 2 TO 4 PM.
LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR... 30/13Z HAS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION... AROUND 19 TO 20Z. THIS IS STILL
A MESSY CONVECTIVE SETUP... HOW THE ATMOSPHERE REBOUNDS FROM EARLY
CONVECTION WILL PLAY A VITAL ROLE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL... WITH
SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINTS... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPROACHING
70... SBCAPE VALUES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN THE 1500 TO
3000 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING
HAIL... UP TO GOLF BALLS... POSSIBLY LARGER... NEAR TENNIS BALLS.
AS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL... LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC WINDS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE... 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES ARE WEAK AS THE
DRY LINE PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
VALUES OF 0-1 KM HELICITY ONLY 50 TO 120 S2/H2. HOWEVER... WITH
LOWER LCLS AND STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT... A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOW... AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON... THE
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. AFTER SUNSET...
THE LLJ WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SWING EAST
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... LIKELY EAST OF OUR CWA IN TULSA AND
SHREVEPORT/S AREAS. JUST A QUICK LOOK... BUT 0-1KM COMPUTED CAPE
AND 0-3KM SHEAR COMPARED TO CORFIDI VECTORS... A DECENT MCS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
TOWARDS THE OUACHITAS AND SOUTHERN OZARKS.

LATER AFDS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

KURTZ

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 67 40 61 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 44 68 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 70 42 61 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 39 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 44 65 37 60 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 54 70 44 61 / 40 10 0 10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
088.

09/04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1152 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATER AFDS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

KURTZ

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 47 67 40 / 40 10 0 0
HOBART OK 80 44 68 37 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 46 70 42 / 30 10 0 0
GAGE OK 77 39 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 44 65 37 / 30 20 0 0
DURANT OK 74 54 70 44 / 70 40 10 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
088.

09/04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

703 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
WINTRY.

THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A STG
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE ARND 100W. THE WRN RIDGE
IS NEAR ITS PEAK FOR THIS AMPLIFICATION CYCLE. SOME FLATTENING OF
THE FLOW WL FOLLOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS IS A COLD AND FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPLY A NEARLY CONTINUOUS FEED OF
CANADIAN AIR MASSES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES
OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THAT KEEP AMNTS IN CHECK...WITH NR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXISTS...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.
A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED OSHKOSH TO GREEN BAY.
MEANWHILE...RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO HAVE TAKEN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXIT NORTHEAST WI EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THESE FEATURES IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND ALSO CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS LAKE HURON
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER DOOR COUNTY. ONCE
THE PRECIP EXITS...MODELS ARE QUITE QUICK IN BRINGING IN CLEARING BY
MID TO LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THERMAL
TROUGHING AND NORTH WINDS...HAVE A HARD TIME ENVISIONING IT
HAPPENING THIS QUICKLY. THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS ARE THE BEST
BETS...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE DIVING INTO
NORTHWEST WI. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL
WI BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MODELS PROJECT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE IN RELATIVELY SHORT SUPPLY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION.
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WI BEFORE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WILL SHOW UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE FORECAST. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID
40S OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALLS
ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS AFTN. THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE
SINCE YDA HAS BEEN TO DIG THE SPEED MAX/SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
TRACKING ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT FARTHER S. THAT OPENS THE
DOOR TO GETTING A LITTLE MORE SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. A COUPLE
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE NE
2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. IT ALSO CUTS DOWN A LITTLE ON THE WIND
POTENTIAL...AS THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STG WIND GUSTS
APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT THROUGH TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA.
SATURDAY WL STILL BE A WINDY DAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
AOA 40 MPH NOW LOOKS LOWER THAN IT DID YDA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WL ARRIVE
/AND EXIT/ A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
TRACK OF SYSTEM IS A LITTLE FARTHER N...AND COULD CUT ACRS THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF WARM- UP OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS PACIFIC AIR
IN THE WARM SECETOR OF THE CYCLONE BRIEFLY SHIFTS THROUGH.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGER SLOWER MOVG CYCLONE
THAT REACHES THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC TO
DRAW AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA AS IT
APPROACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY WANE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO MAINLY VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL BE
ABLE TO TAKE PLACE LATER TONIGHT GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BKN
CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING
THE BROADER LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TAF CLOUD
TRENDS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN WHAT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ESB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

615 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

PESKY DEFORMATION FORCED COLD RAIN PERSISTS FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI. SOME OF THIS RAIN WAS REPORTED MIXING AT
TIMES WITH SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN. OTHERWISE...AND AS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SUFFERING QUITE A BIT UNDER THAT DEFORMATION
AREA RAIN WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. SOME
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S WERE SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WILL BE SEEING THAT DEFORMATION AREA RAIN
RAPIDLY ERODE. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING DOWN
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE. ONE WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO DIVE JUST WEST/SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATER OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. 925-700MB FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE PER THE
NAM...SO SHOULD SEE A SCATTERED/BROKEN NE TO SW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE KICKING
IN. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S.

MODELS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS NEXT AND MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. NICE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCE CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
SWINGS SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. ATTENTION TURNS TO WINDS
SATURDAY IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER COUPLE MODEL RUNS
BEFORE HOISTING. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PULLING IN
COLDER AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN ANOTHER LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN/SNOW. APPEARS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SLIP INTO
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE
50S...POSSIBLY CLOSING IN ON 60 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA.

QUIET/COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. PLAN ON HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
30S TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY DAYTIME RAIN/NIGHTTIME RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THE SOUTH DAKOTA WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THERE IS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE OTHER
WAVE. THE 31.18Z NAM MOVES BOTH OF THESE WAVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CONCERN IS WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL IMPACT EITHER TAF SITE. THE
31.21Z HRRR AND 31.20Z CR-HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS
AND INDICATE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF WHAT HEATING THERE HAS BEEN WITH THE
REMAINING ACTIVITY STAYING IN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. PLAN TO
START KRST WITH A VCSH TO INDICATE THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE AREA. A
LARGE AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE OVER BOTH SITES FOR MOST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. ONCE THIS ENDS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY BUT IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY. A PRETTY
DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL FORM IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM UP THROUGH 750 MB...EXPECT
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR BOTH SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH WISCONSIN
DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL FROM
THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
LEVELS/WITHIN BANK STREAMFLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT
WINTRY.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IL/WI BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ANOTHER INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ON GRASSY SURFACES. IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. ONCE
THE PRECIP ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...MODELS
ARE QUICK TO MOVE IN CLEARING. THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. DO THINK WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SLOWED THE
IMPROVEMENT DOWN SOME. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
LOWER AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS
THAN AN INCH...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

123 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND VERY WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS IT/S FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE
REGION...WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NW CT. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK
FOR ANY STEADIER RAINFALL TO MOVE IN...MAINLY FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST.

WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR ONLY SLOWING FALLING...WITH
MIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH
S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SFC-H850 LAYER INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS IT WILL BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
WESTWARD FROM THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL NY INTO ERN NY BTWN
12Z-15Z. PWATS RISE ABOVE NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER
TO 0 TO -2C FROM THE GFS/NAM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL START OUT VERY BALMY WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S
TO L70S IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWER TO
MID 60S WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME 50S
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AS THE FRONT SAGS S/SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FRI NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND
IN THE EVENING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH H850 TEMPS
FALLING TO 0C TO +2C SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND OC TO -5C NORTH AND
WEST. SCT SHOWERS END EARLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS
09Z-12Z FOR A THREAT OF ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE U30S TO L40S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE POTENT SHORT-WAVE WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IMPACT
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT. H850/925 TEMPS LOWER WELL
BELOW FREEZING BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ACTUALLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE...H850 TEMPS FALL TO -12C TO
-18C FROM SE TO NW OVER THE FCST AREA. CRITICAL THICKNESSES COUPLED
WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...LOW AND
MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SAT
EVENING TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS. MOST LOCATIONS
COULD RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ACTUALLY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...COULD GET 2-4". IT WILL BECOME WINDY AND VERY COLD.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND U50S IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE
DAY...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. LOWS WILL TUMBLE
INTO THE 20S TO L30S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN
GREENS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINTERLIKE AND ACTIVE.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG
WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. THE DAY
SHOULD START OUT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED LAKE EFFECT
SNOWBANDS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND ALSO UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH...IF NOT STRONGER. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS MAY REBOUND
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE
REMAINING IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR SUN NT-MON NT...AFTER A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND INTO PA/SE NY. MODELS
SUGGEST A VERY TIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO A SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH WITH THE
ULTIMATE TRACK WILL RESULT IN DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SOME RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
40S OR WARMER...WHILE SNOW AND HIGHS IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT
DYNAMICS...PARTICULARLY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...COULD BE VERY
STRONG...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH OF MODERATE OR HEAVY
PRECIP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK...WHICH COULD BE SNOW.
AT THE VERY LEAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE...ESP NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW
MAY ARRIVE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A SNOWY
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF MON EVE...WITH COLDER
AIR INFILTRATING THE ENTIRE REGION IN ITS WAKE.

AS FOR TEMPS FOR SUN NT-MON NT...OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR SUN NT/MON AM...THEN RANGE FROM THE 20S/LOWER 30S
TO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...DEPENDING ON THE
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE STORM. MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S AND
30S TUE...AND 30S TO LOWER 40S WED. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WED NT-THU...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR LATE WED
NT INTO THU. P-TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE PROBLEMATIC...ESP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED NT THROUGH THU AM...WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MAY PERSIST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATER THU. COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT COULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS THU NT.

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH NOT
MENTIONED...SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
DISSIPATE AS WE GO TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FROM WEST TO EAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION STARTING
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO DELAY FOR
KPSF/KPOU. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN-
CONJUCNTION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THROUGH
00Z...PERHAPS EVEN PAST 00Z AT KPOU.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST PAST ALL TAF SITES RIGHT TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AROUND 00Z AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU AND AROUND 03Z SATURDAY FOR KPSF.
VCSH WILL BE STILL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TO THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD HIGHLIGHTING THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR/MVFR
LEVELS AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33.0 CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER THE 70 TO 100 PERCENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THE RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE 50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE...AND
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

OVERALL...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MAY PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTION. DUE TO RATHER LOW
WATER LEVELS...NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE
OF LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM
A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

COLDER WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. RIVER
FLOWS SHOULD RECEDE IN THE COLD AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

525 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...UPDATED FOR CHANGES IN MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY HIGH AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...AND
CONTINUING OVER NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BEING FORCED WAY TO THE NORTH INTO ALASKA OVER-TOP A SHARP
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...BEFORE DIVING STRAIGHT
SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO MONTANA/IDAHO/GREAT BASIN
REGION. THIS MERIDIONAL DIP CARVES OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERING THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT PLANES...UPPER
MIDWEST...AND MS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM HAS NOW
BEEN PUSHED OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT EYES AN ARRIVAL OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
AMPLIFICATION INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HAVE
WEATHER IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL AREA FOR SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF A
NORTH-SOUTH PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...AND BAND OF ASSOCIATED
RAIN/STORMS.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND SHRINK BACK TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE RATHER WARM AND HUMID FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DELIVERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE.

AWAY FROM SHORE...OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WEST OF THE NATURE
COAST...WE ARE SEEING INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
APALACHEE BAY COASTAL OBS...THAT A BAND OF SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALWAYS DIFFICULT WITHOUT OBS OVER
THE WATER TO DETERMINE IF THESE FEATURES ARE INDEED FOG OR LOW LEVEL
STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SPORT SST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE
EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER 60S WATER TEMPS UNDER THE BAND...AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S...IT IS CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME OF THE BAND IS INDEED FOG. HAVE SIDED WITH CAUTION AND
ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE WATERS ADJACENT TO
PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 15Z. HOPEFULLY AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF THE SUN BEING UP...SOME DIURNAL MIXING (ALTHOUGH MORE
LIMITED OVER THE WATER) WILL HELP LIFT ANY FOG BACK TO A LOWER
STRATUS DECK...RESULTING IN LESS IMPACT TO MARINE NAVIGATION.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...A WARM AND HUMID FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GENERALLY SPEAKING WE ARE
EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...AND MOST LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR DEEP ASCENT REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY
CLOSE CALL FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND LEVY COUNTY...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO KEEP THE CONVECTION TODAY
JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FURTHER SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF COLD POOL BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS UP
TOWARD I-10...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
REACHING THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% RAIN CHANCE
OVER THIS FAR NORTHERN ZONE AND QUICKLY TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN
FURTHER SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS FORECAST AS THE HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEEDING THE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY IS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL TONIGHT.

ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA-BREEZE. MANY OF
THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCT SHOWERS AFTER 19-20Z OVER POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY SPARSE...AND ANY RAINFALL SHORT-
LIVED. PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH HIGHER TOWARD NOT SEEING RAIN IN ANY
ONE LOCATION THAN OF SEEING A SHOWER.

GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AS THE POTENTIAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN IS
HIGH...AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL BE GOOD. LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90S TO SHOW UP
WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW
AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER...BUT
MANY BEACHES SHOULD STILL SUCCEED IN REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE
MEANINGFUL PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...HELPING TO FINALLY
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SPREADING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. MAY TAKE SOME TIME
OVERNIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT AN INCREASING RAIN CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN BAND OF RAIN
SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...LEVY COUNTY BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WHOLE THING WILL THEN SETTLE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FURTHER NORTH
YOU ARE...THE EARLIER THE RAINFALL...THE MORE LIKELY THE
RAINFALL...AND THE HEAVIER THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO PASS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...SO THOSE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-4 WILL SEE DECREASING OVERALL SUPPORT. DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY OFTER WE SEE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH WITH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD POOLS...DUE TO
LIMITATIONS WITH MOST BOUNDARY LAYER SCHEMES TOWARD THE EVOLUTION
OF MCS OUTFLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPECT THE ACTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN TO MOVE FASTER THAN
SHOWN BY MOST NWP MEMBERS.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS
ASSESSMENT SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FROM A
LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC POINT OF VIEW...AND ALSO THE PRESENCE OF
AROUND 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. 40 KNOTS IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. A
MARGINAL RISK SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
LET OUR GUARD DOWN. A MARGINAL RISK STILL MEANS A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED QLCS (QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) TORNADO THREAT CAN ALSO EXIST WITH A MARGINAL
RISK...KEEPING IN MIND THAT QLCS TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH STILL
DANGEROUS...MOST OFTEN FALL WITHIN THE EF-0 OR EF-1 RANKINGS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE NATURE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FOR MONDAY...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ONE PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN
QUICKLY OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FEEL A BIT DIFFERENT (MORE HUMID) OUTSIDE
THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS DUE TO THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND THE HIGH.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST FOR THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON FRIDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
BEGINNING TO SEE THE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHEST POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNRISE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST SOME SEA FOG WELL OFFSHORE...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADVECTING THE FOG ONSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...BUT CURRENT TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT ANTICIPATE SEA FOG
ISSUES FOR THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ONCE
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN
THE DAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

A BAND OF MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM EDT. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE FOG BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE TODAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS
EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE BEFORE SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITHIN
A FEW HOUR OF SUNRISE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE UP TOWARD COASTAL
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES WHERE SOME SEA FOG MAY BE A FACTOR LATER
INTO THE DAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 72 80 61 / 0 10 70 40
FMY 87 72 85 68 / 0 0 30 20
GIF 87 71 82 61 / 20 0 70 30
SRQ 79 72 79 64 / 0 10 70 40
BKV 86 69 78 57 / 10 10 80 30
SPG 83 72 80 65 / 0 10 70 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

457 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE RATHER WARM AND HUMID FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DELIVERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE.

AWAY FROM SHORE...OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES WEST OF THE
NATURE COAST...WE ARE SEEING INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ALONG WITH APALACHEE BAY COASTAL OBS...THAT A BAND OF
SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALWAYS
DIFFICULT WITHOUT OBS OVER THE WATER TO DETERMINE IF THESE
FEATURES ARE INDEED FOG OR LOW LEVEL STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
SPORT SST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER 60S
WATER TEMPS UNDER THE BAND...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...IT IS CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE
BAND IS INDEED FOG. HAVE SIDED WITH CAUTION AND ISSUED A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE OFFSHORE WATERS(BEYOND 20NM FROM
SHORE) ADJACENT TO PINELLAS/PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY
UNTIL 15Z. HOPEFULLY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF THE SUN BEING UP...SOME
DIURNAL MIXING (ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED OVER THE WATER) WILL HELP
LIFT ANY FOG BACK TO A LOWER STRATUS DECK...RESULTING IN LESS
IMPACT TO MARINE NAVIGATION.

A BAND OF MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES
(GREATER THAN 20NM FROM SHORE) ADJACENT TO THE NATURE COAST ZONES.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE OFFSHORE ZONE IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH 11 AM EDT. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MARINERS
ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING
THE FOG BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE TODAY.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

142 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...Severe storms and flooding possible through early Saturday...

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Saturday] Aviators are in for periods of low cigs and
rain as a cold front moves very slowly southeastward across the
region later today and tonight. We expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to
develop by daybreak across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL, then
spreading eastward across north FL and south GA by early
afternoon. A few storms could be severe with 50 KT gusts and
large hail. There may be a lull in storms, at least at KTLH and
KVLD, late this afternoon and evening; while KDHN, KABY, and KECP
will have the most persistent rain. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs will
be the rule through much of the period.

.Prev Discussion [818 PM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees
above normal.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

.Marine...

.Fire Weather...

.Hydrology...

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through
Saturday morning.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 79 68 75 48 74 / 100 100 60 0 0
Panama City 75 66 71 52 70 / 100 100 40 0 0
Dothan 74 61 71 46 71 / 100 80 20 0 0
Albany 76 63 72 45 71 / 100 100 30 0 0
Valdosta 80 68 74 47 73 / 100 100 80 0 0
Cross City 82 72 78 49 76 / 40 90 80 10 0
Apalachicola 74 69 74 51 71 / 100 100 60 0 0

High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY/CHANEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

135 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND DIMINISHED UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA 500 AM TO 700 AM.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET MOVING
INTO THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-
BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS
DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH
ARE MOVING EAST...AS UPPER ENERGY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WILL
CONCENTRATE DETAIL ON THE NEAR TERM. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH BREEZY
CONDTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

312 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

Upper shortwave trof passing over the forecast area in these
overnight hours, bumping up the winds as it comes through and
bringing showers just north of the area. Secondary push seen in WV
imagery to the northwest of this trof, forecast to move into our
area this afternoon.

For today, expecting highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday
as weak cold advection moves through. Soundings suggest enough
mixing in the boundary layer by early afternoon with the incoming
wave to generate a few showers over the northeastern counties and
have added some slight chances there. Highs still forecast to reach
into the low 50s north with middle 50s south. Relative humidities
drop into the 25-30% range, and couples with afternoon winds around
20 mph, making for high to very high fire danger for several hours
this afternoon. Overnight lows will be impacted by clear skies and
cooler airmass, but countered by a potential light west wind.
Current forecast is for lows near freezing, but with dewpoints in
the 20s think a farther drop is possible. Could have impacts on
outdoor sensitive vegetation.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

Expect a warming trend this weekend as the mid-level trough exits
further to the east. With northwesterly flow aloft still prevailing
into Saturday, it will keep temperatures seasonal in the low/mid 60s
despite the abundant sunshine. By Sunday, surface low pressure will
be diving southward into the Northern Plains and High Plains,
resulting in winds shifting to the southwest and causing a decent
pressure gradient to set up over the area. These southwest winds
gusting upwards of 25-30mph along with mostly sunny skies will
support decent warm-air advection with highs expected to soar into
the mid/upper 70s. Models show some drier air moving into the
region ahead of the advancing surface low, resulting in afternoon
relative humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20 percent
range. As a result, elevated fire danger concerns are expected for
Sunday afternoon.

The surface low and associated cold front will track eastward across
the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning, however do not
expect anything more than a slight temperature cool-down from this
frontal passage with Monday highs dropping a few degrees into the
mid 60s to low 70s. A mid-level ridge will advance into the central
U.S. Monday night into Tuesday with the next mid-level trough
located over the northern Rockies. Models show this trough
deepening as it advances into the central U.S., which will help to
push a cold front through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
While there is modest lift with this frontal passage, there is some
uncertainty with regards to the amount of available moisture to help
produce scattered precipitation. Due to the limited moisture, only
have slight to low-end chance PoPs in for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, and cannot rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder. While temperatures will warm up a bit on Tuesday with
southerly winds boosting afternoon highs into the low/mid 70s, the
frontal passage will cool temperatures slightly with highs dropping
into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday as the region remains under
northwesterly flow aloft. Low temperatures this upcoming week will
remain above freezing and generally in the 40s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF with a very small
potential for brief MVFR between 09Z-13Z at TOP/FOE. Winds will be
predominantly from the west to northwest, and expect occasional
gusts prior to sunrise and then frequent gusts through the day.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Fairly quiet weather is expected during the short term domain. An
upper level longwave trough will continue to move away from the region.
At the sfc, high pressure will prevail. Think some limited mid level
moisture will work its way down in the northwest flow aloft today. However,
lower sfc dewpoints will also advect in. The net result, is a dry forecast.
The 4 km NAM shows some sprinkles, but the other models like the ARW
are dry. Again, think some clouds will prevail, but seriously doubt
anything more than this. Otherwise, highs today will be in the 50s.
As with the previously mentioned lower dewpoints, have opted for a cooler
solution for lows tonight given the dry atmosphere and a good night
for radiational cooling - upper 20s to just around freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Downslope flow will continue through the weekend. By Sunday, ideal downslope
southwesterly flow develops with 850-hPa temperatures creeping back
to the teens. As a result, will see moderating temperatures through
the weekend with 60s Friday and balmy upper 70s by Sunday. I don`t think
we will see elevated or near critical fire weather conditions Saturday,
however, Sunday is the day to watch and active fire weather behavior
is possible. Relative humidities should fall low enough, however, winds
may be more on the marginal side. Something to watch and be cognizant
of. Lows will moderate through the weekend as well even with the dry
atmosphere prevailing. For next week, slightly cooler highs are possible
Monday as a backdoor cold front moves in from the northeast. Tuesday
is still looking very warm with some 80s possible. A good downslope,
compressional adiabatic warming day. Active fire weather behavior is
possible once again on Tuesday. There may be enough lift along a cold
front for isolated showers and possibly thunderstorms. Boundary layer
moisture is not that impressive on the ECMWF with this system, so the
slight superblend pops in the east look fine for now. We will see a
decrease in highs once again by midweek in the post-frontal air mass.
The overall synoptic pattern with a Rex block upstream is not conducive
to any significant precipitation through the end of the business week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd with some high level clouds,
but no operational impacts. Winds will be NW/N starting 8-12 kt early
this morning, increasing 15-25 kt by late morning, then back down to
5-10 kt by evening.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 30 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 55 28 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 55 28 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 57 28 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 53 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
P28 58 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 57 30 68 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 26 56 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 30 56 30 66 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 29 58 29 68 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 29 55 31 66 / 20 0 0 0
P28 33 59 31 69 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND PUSHING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
REGION AND I-75 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
AREAS...IN VICINITY OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL
TRENDS ARE AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY HOLDING AT ALL SITES...BUT ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN COME TO AN END
AROUND MID MORNING AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR CRITERIA AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND A COOL FRONT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME A TAD GUSTY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

400 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE MORE WINTERLIKE WEATHER AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS PAST EVENING...LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY GRABBING AHOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
RESULTED IN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND BY GAUGING SOME UPSTREAM RADAR
DATA SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN THE
GRIDS BY INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL THEN YIELD A POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE
MORNING. HRRR RUNS SHOW SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE EARLY CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
PROCESSES (BOTH DIRECT DCVA AND LEFT EXIT REGION ALBEIT FADING JET
DYNAMICS) AND IS SHOWN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
OVERALL...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO STRAY AWAY FROM LOWER CHANCE POPS.
THE ONE INTERESTING ITEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IS CONTINGENT FIRST ON
DEVELOPMENT AND SECOND ON VIGOR OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD SEE
SOME GRAUPEL WITH LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3000 FT AGL. THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENING WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE
WITH THE CHANCES OR AMOUNTS BUT MODELS DO SHOW A TRANSIENT AND VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE...TIED TO ACTUAL MIDLEVEL FLOW
DISCONTINUITY. DIFFERENTIAL ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG
WITH A DEAD SPOT IN THE JET FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN THE LATTER HALF
OF TONIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DYNAMIC AND DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM
SET TO DESCEND UPON LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPIATION EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE 18-00Z TIME WINDOW. THE OVERALL CONFIGURATION OF THE
SHORTWAVE...UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION STRUCTURE...AND
MAGINTUDE/TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS IMPRESSIVE AND
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH UVVS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE PROJECTED
UVVS...DEPTH OF SATURATION TO THE TROPOPAUSE AT A LOW 17 KFT
AGL...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 2-8 KFT AGL ALL POINT TO A TIME
PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPATION RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
PTYPE QUESTIONS AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH LIQUID WOULD EAT INTO
AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERWHELMING IDEA IS THAT PRECIPIATION RATES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH AND SFC DEWPOINTS/WET BULBS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW IN MANY IF NOT ALL AREAS. AS A RESULT...THE NARRATIVE
FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IS ONE OF SNOW ACTIVTY THAT COULD CATCH MANY
OFF GUARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS (INCLUDING A STRIPE OF 2 TO 3
INCHES)...TO POSSIBLY AN INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS DETROIT. MODELS REMAIN
ADAMANT THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEST
TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS (APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR SOME AREAS) WILL BE 21-06Z. THE STRONGEST NW WINDS WILL
BE SUPPORTED ALONG THE W AND NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE
REFELECTION...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 96.
HOWEVER...THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL REFINEMENT TO THE WIND
FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING RIGHT INTO THE EVENT.

MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES
LEADING TO SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING. THE QUIET PERIOD WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE READY TO
IMPACT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE LESS ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE ABOUT THE FRONTAL
WAVE RESPONSE AND VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. WITH
THE HIGH SENSITIVITY TO EXACTLY WHERE IN THE COLUMN THE
FRONTOGENESIS WILL FIRE ALONG WITH THE PIVOTING FRONTAL WAVE...THERE
IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SUNDAY EVENING EVENT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING OVER THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SAGINAW VALLEY WOULD
HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
IT AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

.MARINE...

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION...RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF INCREASED WIND. THE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE
RESULTANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKES WITH ALREADY STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND THUS A PERIOD
OF GALES IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GALE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH THE ADDED ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST...LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN TRENDS TOWARD IFR UPSTREAM.
GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS/. A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER IN
THE MORNING AND THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT INVERSION
BASES...LEADING TO STEADY RISING CEILING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH
OF METRO THIS MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS HOLDING A LOW END MVFR CEILING
DURING IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW
THIS EVENING.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
441>443-462>464.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1155 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...

FOR DTW...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH
OF METRO THIS MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS HOLDING A LOW END MVFR CEILING
DURING IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW
THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 955 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DISCUSSION...

MARINE...

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ361.

GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC/RK
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
413 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with
minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip,
in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near
the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an
unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is
anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable
PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and
available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates
on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available
but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the
day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much
of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing
mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps
dropping down into the lower to mid 30s.

Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become
southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will
respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging
from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well-
aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s
in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather
nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool
front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back
toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip
chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track
across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics
attm.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid
level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by
evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day,
then relaxing around sunset.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Leighton

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in
water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri
and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate
isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois
this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the
eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle
Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered
showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will
gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs
slightly below normal.

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing
temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern
Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy
frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on
Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through
Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage
of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent
associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday
night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area.
Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast
Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday
still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the
southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb
mainly in the 60s and lower 70s.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the
central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast
on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems
reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the
area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into
Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures
will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday
before cooling below normal on Thursday.

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period
with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu
on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight
and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight
category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid-
morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish
around sunset.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period
with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu
on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid-
morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish
around sunset.

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Britt

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with
early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.
Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate
southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today,
with the second pushing another cold front through the area later
this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an
outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little
impact is expected from this frontal passage.

Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the
warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and
breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon for parts of the area.

Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing
across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible,
especially in the more protected valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016

Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low
to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in
another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather
conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25
and 30 percent over the area.

Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to
mid 70s expected for most.

Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and
Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place.

The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday,
as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area.
Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in
another cool down by the end of next workweek.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure will continue to build into the region as west
northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool
Canadian airmass to the Ozarks.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
101 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region
Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds.

These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an
elevated fire weather risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue
Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage
will occur Monday.

The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next
week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the
region.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

High pressure will continue to build into the region as west
northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool
Canadian airmass to the Ozarks.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1147 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016