Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/01/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
834 AM MST WED MAR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MEAGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME THIS MORNING...WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW STILL ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ONLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. SEVERAL VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES REMAIN TRAVELING THROUGH THE LOW CIRCULATION...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT ONE BEGINNING TO SPLIT FROM THE MAIN CIRC CENTER AND CARVE OUT OVER SOUTHERN CA. UPPER JET STREAK HAS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH OVER 100KT 300MB WINDS OBSERVED ON THE 30/12Z TWC RAOB. TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...ALBEIT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING. SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR SOME CU FIELDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE RIM. SOME CU COULD REDEVELOP DOWN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD NOT EXCEED SCATTERED GIVEN THE ALREADY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND FURTHER DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THIS MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMP TRENDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 244 AM MST/PDT/... TODAY AND THURSDAY... THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES IS CENTERED NEAR WEST-CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OF THAT IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS LOCATED OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO HOME A VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH HAS MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK BUT ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLOUDINESS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING BUT NOT AFFECTING NEAR AS MUCH OF THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. NCEP HI-RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS SREF DEPICT VERY MODEST QPF THERE. THUS ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COULDNT RULE OUT SPRINKLES IN THE FAR EAST VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS...POPS EAST OF PHOENIX DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT REDEVELOP OVER JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AS ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPS DOWN FROM NEVADA. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDING FOR JTNP EVEN DEVELOP A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE...BUT NONE FOR BLYTHE. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BORDERLANDS THURSDAY AND WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL DAY TODAY WITH VERY SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS TUESDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A FINAL SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA FOR ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEAGER PRECIP FOR OUR EASTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH LOW 90S COMMON. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE WEAKER DUE TO A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MOVING INLAND AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH HAVE MORE AFFECT ON US DUE TO CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD. THUS TEMPS DIP DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... WESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS AT BAY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KPHX WILL KEEP WEST WINDS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY LIGHT WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. KIWA HAS A BETTER SHOT AT GOING EASTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NOT SURE THING. BY MID MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER AS MIXING COMMENCES AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SWITCHING OVER TO EASTERLIES TONIGHT. WILL SEE PERIODIC CU WITH BASES OF 8-10K FEET LASTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MOST TIMES EITHER FEW OR SCT. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... LIGHT WESTERLY PREDOMINANT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIKELY WILL SEE SOME PERIODIC FEW TO SCT CU STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST TYPICAL AFTERNOON LOCAL GUSTINESS FAVORING UPSLOPE OR THE SOUTHWEST. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...NOLTE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...KUHLMAN FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
519 AM MST WED MAR 30 2016 .UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS... && .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MEAGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY AND THURSDAY... THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES IS CENTERED NEAR WEST-CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OF THAT IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS LOCATED OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO HOME A VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH HAS MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK BUT ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLOUDINESS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING BUT NOT AFFECTING NEAR AS MUCH OF THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. NCEP HI-RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS SREF DEPICT VERY MODEST QPF THERE. THUS ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COULDNT RULE OUT SPRINKLES IN THE FAR EAST VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS...POPS EAST OF PHOENIX DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT REDEVELOP OVER JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AS ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPS DOWN FROM NEVADA. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDING FOR JTNP EVEN DEVELOP A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE...BUT NONE FOR BLYTHE. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BORDERLANDS THURSDAY AND WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL DAY TODAY WITH VERY SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS TUESDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A FINAL SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA FOR ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEAGER PRECIP FOR OUR EASTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH LOW 90S COMMON. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE WEAKER DUE TO A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MOVING INLAND AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH HAVE MORE AFFECT ON US DUE TO CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD. THUS TEMPS DIP DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... WESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS AT BAY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KPHX WILL KEEP WEST WINDS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY LIGHT WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. KIWA HAS A BETTER SHOT AT GOING EASTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NOT SURE THING. BY MID MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER AS MIXING COMMENCES AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SWITCHING OVER TO EASTERLIES TONIGHT. WILL SEE PERIODIC CU WITH BASES OF 8-10K FEET LASTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MOST TIMES EITHER FEW OR SCT. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... LIGHT WESTERLY PREDOMINANT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIKELY WILL SEE SOME PERIODIC FEW TO SCT CU STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST TYPICAL AFTERNOON LOCAL GUSTINESS FAVORING UPSLOPE OR THE SOUTHWEST. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...KUHLMAN FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
244 AM MST WED MAR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MEAGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY AND THURSDAY... THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES IS CENTERED NEAR WEST-CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OF THAT IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS LOCATED OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO HOME A VORT MAX WITHIN THE TROUGH HAS MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THAT FEATURE HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK BUT ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLOUDINESS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING BUT NOT AFFECTING NEAR AS MUCH OF THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. NCEP HI-RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS SREF DEPICT VERY MODEST QPF THERE. THUS ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. COULDNT RULE OUT SPRINKLES IN THE FAR EAST VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS...POPS EAST OF PHOENIX DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT REDEVELOP OVER JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AS ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPS DOWN FROM NEVADA. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDING FOR JTNP EVEN DEVELOP A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE...BUT NONE FOR BLYTHE. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BORDERLANDS THURSDAY AND WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL DAY TODAY WITH VERY SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS TUESDAY. THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A FINAL SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA FOR ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEAGER PRECIP FOR OUR EASTERNMOST HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH LOW 90S COMMON. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE WEAKER DUE TO A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MOVING INLAND AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NUDGING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH HAVE MORE AFFECT ON US DUE TO CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD. THUS TEMPS DIP DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... ONLY MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS PREVAIL. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING THE WIND SHIFT BACK TO AN E/SE DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS WIND SHIFT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS ONLY MODEST. OTHERWISE...SCT DECK ARE LIKELY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SHOULD NOT BE AS LARGE AS A PROBLEM AS TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SCT CLOUD DECKS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOSING STRONGER GUSTS...AND BECOME NOTICEABLY LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DIRECTIONS COULD EVEN BECOME VARIABLE FOR PERIODS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY WITH READINGS STAYING BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY EXPECT WARMER DESERTS TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND JUST TYPICAL AFTERNOON LOCAL GUSTINESS FAVORING UPSLOPE OR THE SOUTHWEST. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...MO FIRE WEATHER...CB/KUHLMAN/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING TO OUR EAST. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND ONE DIVING TOWARD OUR AREA, STRENGTHENING AS THEY DO SO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... DEEP S-SWLY RETURN FLOW IN BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL KEEP US IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD PATTERN. FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S ARE ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION (WINDS). TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO FALL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 MPH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 10-15 MPH FARTHER INLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS IS LOCATED OUT TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE TO MAINTAIN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND RAP, SHOWS FEW IF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE POCONOS, WHERE A BATCH OF SHOWERS COULD OCCUR TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE LOWERED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NERN PA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS TO BE OVERHEAD AT THE START THE DAY. RH CROSS SECTIONS FROM A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PUTS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF WE DON`T FULLY DESTABILIZE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT , INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE ALONG A LINE WITH STRONG SHEAR THE DRIVING FORCE. SHERBS PARAMETER VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE ABOVE 1 ACROSS THE DE VALLEY AND COASTAL PLAIN AT 18Z AND 21Z...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN THIS HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SETUP. SPC D2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. S-SW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS VERIFY, WE WOULD NEED A WIND ADVISORY FROM PHILA SOUTH AND EAST AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH GUSTS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS TENDS TO BE TOO HIGH WITH THE WIND FIELD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BECOME IF THE MORNING STRATUS HANGS ON LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED, WITH VERY STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND EVEN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA. THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS TO OUR EAST SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CREATE RAINFALL THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS. SATURDAY, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ONE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WHILE THE OTHER DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA. AS THE FIRST ONE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA, IT MAY BRING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SECOND DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA, IT WILL PULL A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FRONTS SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WE ONLY HAVE ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH AS WARM AS IT`S BEEN, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH SNOW TO STICK, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST 40 TO 50 MPH, POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS, LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE LOW WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRYING OUT PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. BUT THEY BOTH AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT AS THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO WE HAVE INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOES A BIT UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS. WITH AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS, FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CEILINGS LOWERING LATE THIS EVENING TO MVFR AND TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WE ARE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THESE LOW CLOUDS THAN THE LAMP/NAM GUIDANCE. CURRENT THINKING IS ALSO THIS GUIDANCE IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW RAISED THE VALUES SOME OVERNIGHT OVER THE GUIDANCE BUT WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE CEILINGS AND VSBYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. IFR WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR BY NOON AS STRATUS MIXES OUT. SWLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY (25-30 KT). SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBILE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT FORECASTED COVERAGE INDICATES THE HIGHER CHANCES OF IMPACTS TO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. GIVEN THIS IS STILL MORE THAN 12 HOURS OPTED NOT TO DETAIL THUNDER IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA, WHICH MAY LOWER CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 20-25 KNOTS. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY LOWER CONDITIONS. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40-50 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. SNOW POSSIBLE LATE AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS. TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.&& .MARINE... SCA IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT GUSTS WILL WILL STILL BE AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT. SWLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO SEE A REPEAT OF WHAT HAPPENED TODAY WITH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING ON LAND POSSIBLY REACHING THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY AND THUS DO NOT THINK MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT 35 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING. COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE EVENING, SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY NEAR STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MONDAY-TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF LULL POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS, POSSIBLY GALE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... FOR SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING INTO 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING OF THE FUELS TAKES PLACE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/ROBERTSON MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/ROBERTSON FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .Update... A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has been steadily moving eastward from our SE AL zones and across our lower tier GA zones from late this afternoon into the early evening. Updated grids and zones for PoPs based on current radar trends. Most of the convection should remain along and north of the Florida border before 06z before the next round of convection arrives before daybreak. && .Aviation... [Through 00Z Friday]...Convection continues at DHN and ABY and should impact VLD shortly. Otherwise, expect CIGS/VSBYS to lower to IFR/LIFR levels due to fog/mist. Before daybreak another round of showers and thunderstorms will make its way eastward starting with DHN. On Friday, widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals most of the day. rain will be heavy at times reducing VSBY to IFR levels. Some of the storms will be strong to severe but the likelihood of one impacting the terminals is low. && .Prev Discussion [428 PM EDT]... .Near Term [Through Tonight]... A trough was extended across the central/western US with a shortwave embedded in the through across the central Plains to mid- Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A slow moving cold front was associated with this system and the front will push into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. A complex of storms has been pushing across AL/GA today with the stronger storms across southern Alabama. This is the area on the northern side of the better CAPE (around 1000 J/kg) and the southern side of the better shear. While CAPE values will be decent across the western extent of the CWA, the area will be slightly less favorable than further westward. Still the potential for severe storms though into this evening, particularly across the western portion of the CWA. While some models have struggled with depicting the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, the HRRR consistently showed the showers and thunderstorms pushing into the CWA this afternoon. Have trended the forecast for the evening towards the HRRR and thus increased PoPs across the western half of the CWA through this evening. Some of this activity may linger into tonight, but then expect a lull before another round moves into SE Alabama late tonight. Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees above normal. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Deep moist southwest flow aloft through Friday night will gradually flatten becoming zonal by Saturday night as the axis of the broad trough swings to our east. The associated cold front entering the Lower Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period will slowly translate eastward across our CWA Friday night through midday Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with some containing very heavy rainfall. A surface low is expected to develop along the boundary in the northern Gulf Friday and lift northeastward across the Florida Panhandle. This will further enhance convection with heavy rains and we have issued a flash flood watch for all but the SE Big Bend and a few of our southeast Georgia counties. The watch is in effect through 8 am Saturday as we expect widespread QPF amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts between 5 and 6 inches. In addition to the flash flood threat, we still have the potential for severe weather with the greatest threat during the Friday to Friday night time frame. SPC has a portion of western zones highlighted in the slight risk through tonight and all but our SE Big bend zones for Friday/Friday night. The greatest threat continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds but large hail and isolated tornados are also possible. The cold front is expected to be roughly along a line from near Albany to Apalachicola around daybreak Saturday with a marginal risk for severe weather along and to the east of there. The cold front is expected to clear all zones by noon or shortly thereafter. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much drier airmass will filter in through Monday. A dry cold front will drop down from the north bringing a re-enforcement of drier air on Tuesday that will continue at least into the middle of the week. A stronger cold front may arrive late Wednesday or Thursday bringing with it the next chance for rain. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. .Marine... Moderate southerly winds will persist through Friday night before a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday. Marginal exercise caution conditions are possible at times through Friday, especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will develop on Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible from Friday night through Saturday night, mainly across the western waters. .Fire Weather... There are no fire weather concerns. A soaking rain is expected by Friday if not sooner. Drier air will move in on Saturday and remain in place for a few days, but is not expected to reach the threshold for Red Flag criteria. .Hydrology... Current conditions across the region show above normal stream flows in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the Suwannee. Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola, Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida. Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight through the weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due to the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists for widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would suggest at least that the most impactful river flooding would be limited to areas already in flood. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through Saturday morning. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 68 79 68 78 47 / 30 100 100 50 10 Panama City 70 75 66 73 51 / 50 100 100 40 10 Dothan 68 74 61 73 44 / 70 100 80 10 0 Albany 68 76 63 73 44 / 70 100 100 20 0 Valdosta 67 80 68 77 46 / 30 100 100 60 10 Cross City 68 82 72 79 49 / 10 40 90 70 10 Apalachicola 70 74 69 75 52 / 20 100 100 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph- Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BARRY NEAR TERM...FIEUX SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...BARRY/CHANEY MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1044 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM...BUT SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE AREA IS RAIN-FREE AS OF LATE EVENING...BUT A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS FORECAST BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHILE GENERALLY DISSIPATING. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INCLUDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SO THE FORECAST WILL START TO RAMP PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK UP FROM THE WEST LATE. COUPLED WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY DROP TO THE MID 60S FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN ORGANIZING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE REGION WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A PERUSAL OF SOUNDING FEATURES REVEAL AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. THE DAY WILL LIKELY START OFF WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S. BASED ON THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA. BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ENOUGH SURFACE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR STORMS TO START DEVELOPING. THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD IN AS A 150 KT 300 MB JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONCE CONVECTION GETS GOING IN THIS AREA IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -7 C/KM OR STEEPER. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AS WELL 40+ KT OF 0- 6 KM SHEAR. OVERALL THE SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY FAVOR LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE PROGGED LAPSE RATES. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 2 PM FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND AROUND 4 PM AND INTO THE EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FRIDAY NIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COAST TO START THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ALOFT AND THE FOCUS OF UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ORIGINATE FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSH IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. POPS RAMP BACK UP TO CATEGORICAL DURING THIS TIME AS COVERAGE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DESPITE THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME. ANOTHER POCKET OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WITH SHOWALTER INDICES OF -3 TO -4. THE HAIL THREAT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. PWATS WILL BE 1.6-1.7 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE MAXIMUM ON RECORD FOR THAT DATE/TIME. ANOTHER INDICATOR IS THE FACT THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS GOING TO BE PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND THE DEEP LAYER FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF ROUND OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...FORECAST THINKING FAVORS A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE. THEREFORE...THIS COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT BY THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTION BY EARLIER CONVECTION...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIALLY EARLIER START TIME TO THE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS A SQUALL LINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND AS A RESULT HAVE INTRODUCED SHOWERS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF/S FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD BE LATER IN THE DAY AS MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AT LEAST PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THEREAFTER. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS BECOMING A SOLID 15 KT ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. SEAS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 FT. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT COULD OCCUR OCCASIONALLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT...UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COLD DRIFT INTO THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. SEA FOG...ELEVATED DEW POINTS STREAMING OVER COOLER ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAQ SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...JAQ/BSH MARINE...BSH/ECT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1030 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHED UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA 500 AM TO 700 AM. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET MOVING INTO THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE- BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH 18Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. HAVE IMPROVED CEILINGS TO VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SHALLOW FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
912 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHED UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA 500 AM TO 700 AM. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET MOVING INTO THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE- BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE SC TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LLWS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH GREATEST UPPER LIFT APPEARS TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES OUT OF GA INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE SC TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LLWS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1253 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .UPDATE... 1134 AM CDT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT ACROSS SOME OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORM LOOKS LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 60 BENEATH A CORRIDOR OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG APPEAR TO BE VERY POSSIBLE. THE KINEMATIC FIELD OVER THE AREA LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...WITH A MID LEVEL JET (AROUND 500 MB) EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 KT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GOOD THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD ALSO BE DECENT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SUPER CELL STORM STRUCTURES. KJB && .SHORT TERM... 331 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING WARMING AND MIXING...AND LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS ACCORDINGLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP. GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AND THUNDER OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTN DUE TO NO CLEAR FORCING AND 15+ DEGREE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THINKING THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SHOWERS ARE ON RADAR...BUT THUNDER IS STILL STRUGGLING. WHILE SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST RAIN COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO FORM THIS EVENING...STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THINKING THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. WITH A DYING TREND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A MILD NIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WHILE FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE...THINKING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOG TO FORM OVER LAND. HOWEVER...STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. JEE && .LONG TERM... 1253 PM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUBTLE NW FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND A STEEP LAPSE RATES ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL (MUSHY HAIL) OR PERHAPS EVEN A WET SNOWFLAKE OR TWO. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA PUTTING US ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP EXPECTED...HOWEVER LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT MORE NOTICEABLY A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER COMMENCING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRACK THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN FOR OUR CWA...AND IF IT TRACKS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WE COULD STAY DRY ALTOGETHER. DID MAINTAIN A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUT US CLOSER TO THE RAIN-SNOW LINE. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER VIGOROUS WITH STRONG ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF >100KT 250MB JET ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO COULD EVEN SOME SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIP. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO FINE TUNE TRACK/INTENSITY/TIMING OF THIS WAVE...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH. VERY ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING CLIPPER FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID-WEEK. IZZI && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... TRICKY FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. LOWERED GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING MIXING. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SEEM TO HELP GUSTS GET UP TO 30 KT. OCNL GUSTS TO 30 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT -SHRA AND VCTS IN THE TAFS AFT 21Z AS PRIME TIME HEATING WILL HELP SHOWERS TO FORM. THINKING BETTER TS COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BUT STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT RFD WHERE DYING STORMS OVER IOWA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING THOUGH. KEPT IFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING THEY WILL OCCUR. IFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY TIED TO THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS...BUT CAN SEE CIGS DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR AS WE SATURATE OVERNIGHT. MIXING PICKS UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW ENTERS THE REGION. THINKING THE MIXING WILL HELP LIFT CIGS QUICKLY. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE WINDS AS STRONG AS MODELS SUGGEST JUST YET. ONE MODEL FEATURES GUSTS OVER 45 KT. THINKING RAIN SHIFTS EAST IN THE MORNING...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMS ALONG THE LOW/S COLD FRONT IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. JEE && .MARINE... 309 AM CDT SOUTHERLY WINDS/GUSTS ARE INCREASING OVER THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 30KT LATER TODAY WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...STABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY PREVAILING GALES. WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WILL ALSO RAMP UP TO 30KT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALES DURING THIS TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH THIS LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT...OVERALL SPEEDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH. THIS WONT LIKELY BE THE CASE THOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. OVER THE OPEN WATERS...STABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY GALES. WINDS/GUSTS WILL STILL BE TO 30KT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH. DO THINK ANY GALE POTENTIAL WILL BE SPORADIC...AND SO HAVE ONLY MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL VARY GREATLY OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH THIS LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. OVER THE NORTH HALF...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR AND OVER THE SOUTH HALF...SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ON THURSDAY BUT THERE IS SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE. HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND...AND SO HAVE REPLACED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH A GALE WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. AS THIS LOW EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WHILE DIMINISHING. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONGER WINDS APPROACHING GALES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1253 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Forecast is pretty much on track today with scatteres showers and a few thunderstorms spreading ne across areas from I-55 west at lat this morning. Had pea size hail (1/4 inch) recently reported in Springfield with a thunderstorm. Most of the lightning activity is currently in eastern Sangamon county, and there was some lightning in past hour near Tazewell and Logan county border. 15Z surface map shows 998 mb low pressure over central Nebraska with a cold front through central KS into nw Texas/OK. Breezy sse winds of 12-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph over central IL this morning. 1030 am temps were in the low to mid 50s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s. RAP, HRRR and NAM models show scattered showers along with chances of thunderstorms spreading over eastern IL during the afternoon. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms for areas from highway 51 west this afternoon into tonight, with 5-15% risk of hail and high winds and just 2% risk of tornadoes. RAP and NAM show low MUCAPES peaking from 200-400 j/kg over western CWA today while high shear of 45-60 kts in western CWA with highest shear nw of IL river. Better chance of severe storms is west of IL this afternoon/tonight where stronger instability/higher CAPES. Highs this afternoon in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s southeast of I-70 and from Jacksonville sw. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The recent stretch of quiet weather across central and southeast Illinois will come to an end today as a slow moving storm system approaches the area. The upper-level low driving the system is still spinning across the southwest U.S., but it is expected to translate into the central High Plains by this evening as it begins to open up and become absorbed into a digging northern stream trof. Strong southerly flow ahead of the system will transport moisture into the initially very dry airmass across the forecast area this morning. This moisture will be acted on by a lead short wave ejecting out of the southwest system, and associated enhanced WAA/isentropic ascent. The stronger winds aloft will help minimize surface based instability today, but fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will still support elevated convection. Expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms to break out from late morning into the afternoon hours as the forcing moves in and the atmosphere has time to moisten. The elevated warm layer will keep winds from getting as strong today as they might otherwise be, but the surface gradient and potential mixing still support gusts over 30 mph by afternoon. The strong southerly winds, aside from transporting moisture into the area, will also boost temperatures well above normal. Despite the increasing clouds and precipitation threat, expect afternoon highs to top out well into the 60s. A few 70s are possible as well. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Large upper low along the Utah/Nevada borer expected to contract as it moves east today, reaching the northeast corner of Colorado this evening before it starts to get drawn into the trough dropping across Manitoba/western Ontario. Secondary trough expected to drop southeast from the Dakotas on Thursday as a broad trough digs southward from Ontario. These will be the main players over the next couple days in terms of rain chances over our area. Despite very high PoP`s over the area tonight, none of the models are indicating a solid, continuous rain shield, although areas south of I-70 would see the best odds of this happening as a cluster of stronger thunderstorms tracks along the lower Ohio River. Thus, precipitation will be covered with "occasional" wording. Best thunder chances will be west of highway 51 as CAPE`s rise to 500- 1000 J/kg. As the storm system has been slowing down in recent model runs, have made some significant adjustments to PoP`s on Thursday and increased them to 50-60% along and east of I-57 around midday and early afternoon. Latest SPC Day2 outlook introduced a slight risk of severe storms from about Danville-Effingham eastward, as CAPE`s rise to around 1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear ramps up to around 60-70 knots. Leaned more toward the GFS timing, which has the surface front exiting the southeast CWA by late afternoon. With the slower frontal passage, have increased highs by several degrees Thursday, with most areas east of I-55 reaching around 70 degrees. Made little change to PoP`s for late Thursday night and Friday, as the secondary trough swings through the area. As it exits, the upper pattern will continue to focus a strong northwest flow into the Midwest, although the colder air will provide more of a glancing blow. Saturday night looks to be the best chance of temperatures near or below freezing, as an area of high pressure sinks southeast toward the Ohio Valley. However, a secondary surge of cooler air is progged to swing through Monday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of the IL to along I-57 is tracking ne around 50 mph and will affect most of the central IL airports this afternoon. MVFR ceilings and vsbys likely with thunderstorms and vsbys could briefly drop below 2 miles as SPI was as low as 1/2 mile with small hail. Most of these thunderstorms pass se of PIA next few hours and introduced thunderstorm chances at PIA during mid/late afternoon. 998 mb low pressure over south central Nebraska early this afternoon will track ne to near the WI/IL border by 18Z/Thu and pull a cold front east toward the IL river by early Thu afternoon. More thunderstorms will likely occur tonight and develop along and ahead of this cold front by early Thu afternoon and track into eastern IL during mid/late Thu afternoon, just after the 24 hour TAF window. Breezy SSW winds of 15-20 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts will occur next 24 hours ahead of this cold front, with strongest winds during the afternoon and again during day on Thu. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...BAK LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1136 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .UPDATE... 1134 AM CDT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT ACROSS SOME OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORM LOOKS LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH LOOKS TO INCLUDE AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 60 BENEATH A CORRIDOR OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG APPEAR TO BE VERY POSSIBLE. THE KINEMATIC FIELD OVER THE AREA LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...WITH A MID LEVEL JET (AROUND 500 MB) EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 KT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GOOD THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD ALSO BE DECENT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SUPER CELL STORM STRUCTURES. KJB && .SHORT TERM... 331 AM CDT THROUGH THURSDAY... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING IN GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVELY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES. EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE IF ANY AT ALL TODAY...HOWEVER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 60S SOUTH TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SCANT TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LEVEL BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE MANY DRY HOURS TODAY...IN FACT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE WINDY...MILD...AND RAIN FREE...BUT HAVE AN UMBRELLA HANDY AS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SPLASH AND DASH SHOWERS AROUND. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR, IF NOT NORTH OF, THE WI BORDER TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, MODEST INSTABILITY AND BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ALONG WITH ANY REMNANT ACTIVITY ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TONIGHT. DEFINITELY NOT LOOKING LIKE A WASH-OUT...BUT HARD TO ARGUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS BEING OFFERED UP BY GUIDANCE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY...UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND RATHER HUMID TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY HOLDING NEAR IF NOT IN THE LOWER 60S. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER STILL WITH PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...WHICH NOW MEANS MOST OF THE CWA WILL START OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE HANGING BACK IN THE MEAN TROUGH AND RESULTING IN STRONGER SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO MIDDAY AND PAINTING A MUCH MORE OMINOUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER ESPECIALLY EASTERN COUNTIES. GFS/ECMWF ARE QUICKER WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND HAVE MORE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND WOULD LEAD TO GREATER THREAT OF CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST INTO IN. GIVEN THE RECENT SLOWING TREND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A POTENTIAL GREAT SEVERE WX THREAT LOCALLY THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM START TO THE DAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S OVER SE CWA WHERE FROPA LOOKS TO BE MIDDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS. TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK LIKE THE GFS COULD PUT A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA FLIRTING WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. IZZI && .LONG TERM... 331 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUBTLE NW FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND A STEEP LAPSE RATES ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL (MUSHY HAIL) OR PERHAPS EVEN A WET SNOWFLAKE OR TWO. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA PUTTING US ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP EXPECTED...HOWEVER LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT MORE NOTICEABLY A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER COMMENCING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRACK THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN FOR OUR CWA...AND IF IT TRACKS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WE COULD STAY DRY ALTOGETHER. DID MAINTAIN A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD PUT US CLOSER TO THE RAIN-SNOW LINE. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER VIGOROUS WITH STRONG ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF >100KT 250MB JET ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO COULD EVEN SOME SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIP. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO FINE TUNE TRACK/INTENSITY/TIMING OF THIS WAVE...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH. VERY ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING CLIPPER FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID-WEEK. IZZI && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES WILL BE WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST LIKELY NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...DID PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TO THE TERMINALS BUT COULD SEE THIS PUSHED BACK EVEN FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND WERE TO CONTINUE THEN THE BULK OF TODAY COULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER FORCING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHEN HIGHER CHANCES FOR PREVAILING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMES OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL IN PLACE WITH OVERALL DURATION...AS ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THIS EVENING COULD SEE PERIODIC DRY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH EVEN SCATTERED THUNDER STILL REMAINING A POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY CONVEYED IN THE TAFS GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. VFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TODAY BUT WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH LOW END MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING WITH CONFIDENCE GROWING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST THURSDAY MORNING. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 309 AM CDT SOUTHERLY WINDS/GUSTS ARE INCREASING OVER THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 30KT LATER TODAY WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...STABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY PREVAILING GALES. WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WILL ALSO RAMP UP TO 30KT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALES DURING THIS TIME. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH THIS LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT...OVERALL SPEEDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH. THIS WONT LIKELY BE THE CASE THOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. OVER THE OPEN WATERS...STABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY GALES. WINDS/GUSTS WILL STILL BE TO 30KT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH. DO THINK ANY GALE POTENTIAL WILL BE SPORADIC...AND SO HAVE ONLY MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL VARY GREATLY OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH THIS LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. OVER THE NORTH HALF...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR AND OVER THE SOUTH HALF...SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ON THURSDAY BUT THERE IS SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE. HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND...AND SO HAVE REPLACED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH A GALE WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. AS THIS LOW EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WHILE DIMINISHING. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONGER WINDS APPROACHING GALES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1046 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Forecast is pretty much on track today with scatteres showers and a few thunderstorms spreading ne across areas from I-55 west at lat this morning. Had pea size hail (1/4 inch) recently reported in Springfield with a thunderstorm. Most of the lightning activity is currently in eastern Sangamon county, and there was some lightning in past hour near Tazewell and Logan county border. 15Z surface map shows 998 mb low pressure over central Nebraska with a cold front through central KS into nw Texas/OK. Breezy sse winds of 12-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph over central IL this morning. 1030 am temps were in the low to mid 50s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s. RAP, HRRR and NAM models show scattered showers along with chances of thunderstorms spreading over eastern IL during the afternoon. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms for areas from highway 51 west this afternoon into tonight, with 5-15% risk of hail and high winds and just 2% risk of tornadoes. RAP and NAM show low MUCAPES peaking from 200-400 j/kg over western CWA today while high shear of 45-60 kts in western CWA with highest shear nw of IL river. Better chance of severe storms is west of IL this afternoon/tonight where stronger instability/higher CAPES. Highs this afternoon in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s southeast of I-70 and from Jacksonville sw. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The recent stretch of quiet weather across central and southeast Illinois will come to an end today as a slow moving storm system approaches the area. The upper-level low driving the system is still spinning across the southwest U.S., but it is expected to translate into the central High Plains by this evening as it begins to open up and become absorbed into a digging northern stream trof. Strong southerly flow ahead of the system will transport moisture into the initially very dry airmass across the forecast area this morning. This moisture will be acted on by a lead short wave ejecting out of the southwest system, and associated enhanced WAA/isentropic ascent. The stronger winds aloft will help minimize surface based instability today, but fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will still support elevated convection. Expect numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms to break out from late morning into the afternoon hours as the forcing moves in and the atmosphere has time to moisten. The elevated warm layer will keep winds from getting as strong today as they might otherwise be, but the surface gradient and potential mixing still support gusts over 30 mph by afternoon. The strong southerly winds, aside from transporting moisture into the area, will also boost temperatures well above normal. Despite the increasing clouds and precipitation threat, expect afternoon highs to top out well into the 60s. A few 70s are possible as well. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Large upper low along the Utah/Nevada borer expected to contract as it moves east today, reaching the northeast corner of Colorado this evening before it starts to get drawn into the trough dropping across Manitoba/western Ontario. Secondary trough expected to drop southeast from the Dakotas on Thursday as a broad trough digs southward from Ontario. These will be the main players over the next couple days in terms of rain chances over our area. Despite very high PoP`s over the area tonight, none of the models are indicating a solid, continuous rain shield, although areas south of I-70 would see the best odds of this happening as a cluster of stronger thunderstorms tracks along the lower Ohio River. Thus, precipitation will be covered with "occasional" wording. Best thunder chances will be west of highway 51 as CAPE`s rise to 500- 1000 J/kg. As the storm system has been slowing down in recent model runs, have made some significant adjustments to PoP`s on Thursday and increased them to 50-60% along and east of I-57 around midday and early afternoon. Latest SPC Day2 outlook introduced a slight risk of severe storms from about Danville-Effingham eastward, as CAPE`s rise to around 1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear ramps up to around 60-70 knots. Leaned more toward the GFS timing, which has the surface front exiting the southeast CWA by late afternoon. With the slower frontal passage, have increased highs by several degrees Thursday, with most areas east of I-55 reaching around 70 degrees. Made little change to PoP`s for late Thursday night and Friday, as the secondary trough swings through the area. As it exits, the upper pattern will continue to focus a strong northwest flow into the Midwest, although the colder air will provide more of a glancing blow. Saturday night looks to be the best chance of temperatures near or below freezing, as an area of high pressure sinks southeast toward the Ohio Valley. However, a secondary surge of cooler air is progged to swing through Monday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 LLWS is present to start the day across the central Illinois terminals. However, within the next couple of hours, some of the stronger winds aloft will mix down, with gusty southerly surface winds persisting through the rest of the 12Z TAF valid time. VFR conditions will degrade to MVFR, and possibly IFR by tonight, as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous with the approach of a storm system. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...BAK LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW FROM THE LOW...STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SE MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 50S. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS. EXCELLENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. HRRR SHOWS AND EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE NEAR 00Z. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A CERTAINTY AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE STORMS MAY EXIT BEFORE OR RIGHT NEAR 00Z. BEST FORCING IS LOST BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WILL TREND LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WESTERN UNITEDSTATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN INDIANA WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SECOND PASSING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WEST WINDS AND ONLY ACCESS TO LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S. THUS A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULES OUT...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF INDIANA...WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHC POPS AT NORTH AND EAST OF INDY...MAINLY DRY POPS SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST. THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS DIVERTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE. ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER BELOW 050 HAS SCATTERED OUT...SO WILL LIFT THE CEILING FORECAST ABOVE THAT LEVEL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KBMG...BY ISSUANCE TIME. WILL SEE CONVECTION LINGER IN THE KBMG AREA UNTIL ABOUT 010100Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SURFACE GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 010200Z. AT THIS TIME...DON/T THINK CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF INITIAL LINE. CEILINGS 040-050 EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY SNEAK INTO KLAF AFTER 010600Z. SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 250-280 DEGREES WILL DIMINISH TO 7-10 KTS BY LATE EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....TUCEK AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF WATERLOO WEST- SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF DENISON. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. SOME CLEARING EVIDENT ON 2015Z VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE 30.20Z RUC SUGGEST SURFACE BASE CAPE BETWEEN 700-1100 J/KG. WEAK CONVERGENCE PRESENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY SPAWNED A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OVER CRAWFORD/CARROLL COUNTY AREA...BUT CAP IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM DEVELOPING ANY FURTHER. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH 02Z...BUT CHANCES QUICKLY WANE AS THE SUN SETS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND EVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS REASONABLE FOR SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...BUT THE 0-1KM IS WEAK AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TORNADIC THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND EVEN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TO THE MISSOURI BORDER. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CAA SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH BETWEEN 06-12Z THURSDAY. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 THURSDAY WILL REPRESENT A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING IN THE MORNING THE INCREASING CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES WILL HINGE ON LOW LEVEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD HAVE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY HAVE SNOW FLAKES REACH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. ANOTHER PUSH FOR COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD CONDITIONS TO END THE PERIOD. THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. CERTAINLY READINGS WILL DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE HEADLINES MAY BE CONSIDERED AT THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...30/18Z ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER FOD/MCW AND POSSIBLY AT ALO. THE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM WRF DEPICTS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE B/T 23Z TO 04Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST- CENTRAL IOWA. CERTAINLY CAN EXPECT SOME BRIEF IFR AND EVEN LIFR VIS/CIGS IF CONVECTION ROLLS OVER AN AIRPORT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN INITIATION. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO SETTLE IN AND LIKELY TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK LONG TERM...DONAVON AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 FOCUS TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY FOR EARLY SPRING EXPECTED. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OUT OF THE NE CWA...WITH ANOTHER AREA IN NE NEBRASKA MOVING TOWARD THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND PUSH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD SUNRISE/MID MORNING. THEN EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY TOWARD MID DAY...WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY STILL EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA AROUND MID DAY. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS THE SFC LOW NEARS THE STATE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO NOSE UP INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CAP TO ERODE...WITH INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH MORE OF A UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE...WOULD SUGGEST A SHIFT TO MORE WIND POTENTIAL AS EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE LINEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SFC TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TOWARD 21-00Z PER SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. TORNADO THREAT STILL THERE AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 20KTS FOR 0-1KM...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SYSTEM SHIFTS MORE TO A LINEAR MODE...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD STILL HAVE SOME QUICK SPIN-UPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE IF STORMS CAN STAY SFC BASED AS THE SUN SETS AND HEATING IS LOST QUICKLY GIVEN IT IS STILL VERY EARLY SPRING. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH BULK OF ANY HIGHER END WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERNS EARLY IN THE FORECAST WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF DUAL LOW TROUGH AT 00Z WITH COLD FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR ATLANTIC TO WATERLOO. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPLICATED MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING...AS BEST SHEAR WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING AND LAG THE BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUS...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED PRIOR TO 03Z ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY... AND THEN CONTINUE A LINGERING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEARER THE IA MO BORDER THROUGH 03Z AS SHEAR INCREASES WHILE INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12 AND GFS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IA BY 03Z. 0-3KM FORECAST HELICITY IS 200 M2/S2. THIS MAY SUPPORT A SMALL TOR THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH BEYOND 00Z AS UPPER LEVEL 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES AFTER 00Z INTO THE REGION. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED VERTICALLY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR EPISODE...H500/H300 WINDS DO INCREASE TO 55/95 KTS RESPECTIVELY BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD HELP LINGERING SVR THREAT TO 03Z. BEYOND 03Z...EXPECTING MORE GENERAL THUNDER AS BOTH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DECREASE THROUGH 12Z. LINGERING WEAK MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE OVER THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE SCT/ISO THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT THURSDAY THE LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY IN THE EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT POSITION...SO FOR NOW HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 18Z AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS REFINE POSITION OF AXIS. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...GFS/EURO AND OTHER MED RANGE MODELS AGREE ON RATHER POTENT SMALL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN/THEN CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING...QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE BROADENING H500 EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE AMOUNT OF GENERATED QPF DUE TO GFS/EURO DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING FORCING AS THE FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...CONSENSUS DOES REMAIN ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR MASS SUPPORTING MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND ALL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM WITH COLDER AIR PLOWING INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SNOW IS NOW IN THE FORECAST...ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT MOST IS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE WARMTH EXPECTED TODAY...AMOUNT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION...THE GROUND IS LIKELY TO RETAIN MORE HEAT AND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS. THUS...MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT. AFTER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH...LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRUSH THE 30 MARK NORTH AND IN THE MID 30S SOUTH. AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY ANOTHER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER OF HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S SAT/SUN FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S MONDAY ONLY TO RISE AGAIN TO THE 50S/60S BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SUCH FAST MOVING STORMS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE RESULTED IN LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS6/7 AS WE MOVE TOWARD TUES/WED OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO SORT OUT DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...30/18Z ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER FOD/MCW AND POSSIBLY AT ALO. THE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM WRF DEPICTS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE B/T 23Z TO 04Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST- CENTRAL IOWA. CERTAINLY CAN EXPECT SOME BRIEF IFR AND EVEN LIFR VIS/CIGS IF CONVECTION ROLLS OVER AN AIRPORT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN INITIATION. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO SETTLE IN AND LIKELY TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BEERENDS LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...HELPING TO REINFORCE A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE KANSAS REGION. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS TO CENTRAL KS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FRIDAY WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING MOMENTUM TRANSFER EFFECTS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH LACKING AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS MARGINAL...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BREEZY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY TUESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S)...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. ALTOCU CIGS WILL VACATE THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. KED && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/GUSTY WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS WILL KEEP GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS VERY HIGH IN CENTRAL KS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25% WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...INTO THE FLINT HILLS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 37 58 33 69 / 10 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 33 57 31 69 / 10 0 0 0 NEWTON 35 56 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 37 58 33 70 / 10 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 37 58 33 69 / 10 0 0 0 RUSSELL 31 55 31 67 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 32 56 31 68 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 34 56 32 67 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 33 55 31 66 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 38 60 33 69 / 10 0 0 0 CHANUTE 38 58 33 66 / 10 0 0 0 IOLA 36 56 32 64 / 10 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 38 60 32 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...KED FIRE WEATHER...JMC
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 605 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon. Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers). For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward, however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF- ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850- 700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 50s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Much of southwest Kansas is now in official drought conditions (D1/Moderate Drought) per US Drought Monitor...primarily along and south of the Arkansas River. The forecast period through mid next week looks dry. The hemispheric jet stream pattern will be split across North America through the period -- the main polar jet will reside across southern Canada/northern CONUS as will the storm track. The southern jet stream will be less active with a closed low expected to form well off the southern California Coast. As long as we continue to see a fairly fast, northern jet stream, we will not see any precipitation (or at least meaningful precipitation) across western Kansas. A trough will develop across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region early next week, and we should see a backdoor cold front Monday. This would be a brief shot of cooler air which will likely be followed be another lee trough Tuesday ahead of the next synoptic storm system ripping across the Rockies (most likely over us or to our north). The Tuesday system would be coming out into the plains amidst a depleted moisture source to our south given such a strong cold front penetration over the weekend. On the whole, temperatures will continue to be above average with highs well into the 70s and lower 80s ahead of fronts (Sunday and Tuesday) with upper 60s to lower 70s behind fronts. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Evening clouds in the 5000 to 9000 ft AGL level will give way to clearing skies early tonight as an upper level trough moves southeast across the Central Plains. Gusty north to northwest winds will decrease to around 10 knots after sunset as a surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 29 57 30 68 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 26 56 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 30 56 30 66 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 29 58 29 68 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 29 55 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 P28 33 59 31 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT WED MAR 30 2016 AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES VARIED DRASTICALLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCATIONS IN EAST COLORADO DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND THE WINDS. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE LOW WHILE WINDS BEHIND THE LOW ARE NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH...GUSTING 20 MPH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOVING EAST. ALOFT...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. HAZARDS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME INCLUDE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BLOWING DUST...THUNDERSTORMS...SNOW AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEGINNING WITH TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES NEAR/EXCEEDING 9 MB...COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE. FORECAST GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THE FRONT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS TO 55 MPH WERE REALIZED. IN ADDITION...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LED TO SOME BLOWING DUST LAST EVENING WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS. THEREFORE...WITH THE WINDS ARRIVING BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION... PLACED BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST. ON TO THE NEXT CONCERN...RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUNCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL. WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...DCAPE APPROACHING 600 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 70 KTS...COULD SEE A FEW SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS/BLOWING DUST AS THE PRIMARY THREATS... CONTINGENT IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. LATER THIS EVENING...A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS OVER YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR EVERYONE WITH HIGHEST TOTALS...BETWEEN 0.5" AND 1.0"...OVER NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY ENOUGH BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID MELTING. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AS WELL TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS TO REACH STRONG WINDS ALOFT BY LATE MORNING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED MAR 30 2016 THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD TRANSITIONS FROM A TROUGH OVER THE NC STATES ON FRIDAY TO A DEVELOPING BROAD RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH THEN DOMINATES THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE AND NO PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG NORTH WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH BRING DOWN COOLER AIR WITH 850 TEMPS STARTING THE DAY AROUND OC. AS A RESULT...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT 50-55 DEGREES. AFTER THAT... WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE WNW AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNSLOPING...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S SUN-TUE. ABOUT THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. ONE POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTOR THOUGH MIGHT BE THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED MAR 30 2016 PATCHY MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH SITES THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST...PULLING IN DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AS IT DOES SO. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KMCK ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT KGLD...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WAS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PLACE INTO TAF AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE AT KGLD ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR NOW... DID NOT REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BUT INCLUDED A 6SM BLDU GROUP. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...DLF AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 251 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Our region will be placed well in the dry slot of the evolving baroclinic system across the central Plains today and tonight. The broad open upper low moving through Colorado weakens to an open wave as it moves through Nebraska tonight. With our northern counties like Trego and Ellis being on the southern periphery, we have maintained slight pops for tonight. Thunderstorms chances in the south central are quite low as the main moisture transport axis has shift well into eastern Kansas this afternoon , and the convective allowing models are persistent in cell initiation over north central Oklahoma. Beyond significantly cooler lows tonight by about 20 degrees owing to drier air and radiational cooling, cooler and still windy conditions are seen Thursday afternoon. An isolated cold air advection/instability shower or two will be possible in the afternoon as the NAM/WRF/NMM etc, indicate low reflectivity along the leading edge of invading late day clouds. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 A couple of days of lingering broad upper cyclonic flow is seen in the ECMWF/GFS. Even so, the main vorticity advection rotating through the base appears well north in the Northern Plains at this time. A gradual warming in the upper 70s and near 80 degrees again by Sunday. Mild warm weather continues through the 7 day outlook , with increasingly mild overnight lows. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Southwest Kansas will remain in the dry slot of the upper system moving through the Central Plains today and tonight. This will resulting a dry forecast and mainly issues of wind (and it will be windy) direction for area terminals. At HYS, MVFR ceilings are possible overnight as the weakening upper trough lifts across Nebraska. General windy west southwest may lull briefly in the evening hours before veering west northwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Challenging setup this afternoon for the red flag warning in the southern counties. Just as the RH is dropping to criterion in the extreme southwest, the winds have significantly slacked into the 5-10 knot range. The conditions are actually close to red flag criteria farther north, however even here the HRRR mode is overdoing both the RH and wind with respect to critical criteria. Either way, outdoor burning remains strongly discouraged across all of southwest Kansas this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures on Friday will make the situation not quite as bad, however, breezy winds and teens RH values in the afternoon will still create elevated fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 37 61 32 58 / 10 20 10 0 GCK 34 60 28 57 / 10 20 10 0 EHA 34 58 32 55 / 10 20 10 0 LBL 36 62 33 58 / 0 20 10 0 HYS 39 58 31 55 / 20 20 10 0 P28 42 65 36 60 / 10 20 10 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ084>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...MR LONG TERM...MR AVIATION...Russell FIRE WEATHER...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1229 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 An intense upper low across western UT and western AZ will shear apart with one section of the upper trough lifting northeast across CO into NE, which will amplify as it phases with a northern branch upper trough digging southeast across the northern plains. The upper trough will then move east across NE and KS Tonight. As the H5 trough lifts northeast across CO into western NE and KS an H5 jet max of 55 to 60 KTS will spread northeast across eastern KS during the afternoon and evening hours. The mesoscale models such as the ARW and NMM version of the WRF and the GFS show a round of elevated thunderstorms developing as the upper jet lifts northeast from the TX PNHDL into western and central KS this morning. If these models turn out to be accurate then precip chances will be higher across the CWA during the mid and late morning hours. These elevated storms may rotate due to the increasing vertical windshear,so I can not rule out some large hail. However, the NAM and RAP models do not show elevated storms developing through the morning hours. This afternoon and evening, the surface trough and dryline will be moving east from western KS across central KS into the western counties of the CWA. There are difference in the speed of the dryline eastward progress. Most numerical model solutions move the surface dryline along a Seneca, to Manhattan line by 6 PM this evening. Surface convergence ahead of the dryline combined with ascent ahead of the H5 trough will break the weak cap and cause scattered thunderstorms to develop across northeast and east central KS. Every model shows there will be good vertical windshear and MLCAPE of 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG. The NAM models seems a bit too high with forecasting around 3000 J/KG of MLCAPE across east central KS. Instability will depend on how much elevated convection develops this morning, if any, and if there will be any insolation for surface heating ahead of the dryline. I think there will be widely scattered elevated thunderstorms during the mid morning hours but these storms should move northeast into MO by noon, then we should see some breaks in the OVC for surface heating ahead of the dryline. Given an environment with good vertical windshear and sufficient instability, we should see developing thunderstorms late this afternoon become supercell thunderstorms. The models due vary quite a bit on how much low-level vertical windshear will develop ahead of the dryline. The WRF model solutions show surface and 850mb winds to veer across the warm sector late this afternoon and early this evening. 0-1 KM SRH values are only 50 to 100 J/kg. Meanwhile the NAM model solution and to some extent the RAP model have surface winds a bit more backed and 850mb winds are not as veered. The NAM develops about 100 to 200 j/kg of SRH, which would be more conducive for any supercell thunderstorms to produce tornadoes. Even if winds are a bit veered as the mesoscale models forecast, I cannot rule out a few weak tornadoes. If the low-level winds back more ahead of the dryline then the tornado threat will be greater and the tornadoes may be more intense. Any supercell thunderstorms will also produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Most of the numerical models shift the threat for severe storms east of the CWA during the mid evening hours. The NAM model hangs up the dryline across the eastern counties of the CWA and storms continue to shift northeast across east central KS. I think over the mid evening hours the isolated supercells will evolve into line segment with the main hazards being damaging winds and perhaps some flash flooding if training of storms occur across the southeast counties of the CWA. The NAM model finally shifts the thunderstorms east of the CWA after midnight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Early Thursday morning a shortwave on the base of the main upper level trough will be over northeast Kansas. There remains a small chance for rain near the Nebraska boarder Thursday morning with soundings showing decent saturation and forcing in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Most the afternoon Thursday should be dry across the area before another shortwave passes just north of the area and rain chances clip extreme northeast Kansas. From here, precipitation chances end for the rest of the period. Winds shift from the south overnight Saturday, leading to a warm and dry Sunday with highs in the middle to low 70s. Sunday afternoon these southerly winds will gust up to 25kts, creating possible elevated fire concerns for this day. The rest of the period stays mild with highs generally in the upper 60s or low 70s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1219 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 MVFR cigs are expected to continue through the 20Z. VCTS is introduced at all terminals beginning at 21Z as scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline as it pushes east across the area. Any lingering thunderstorm activity should exit the area from west to east this evening, 01Z at MHK and 03Z at the Topeka terminals. Winds will then veer to the WNW as a cold front passes across the area overnight. Low cigs are still possible with the cold front passage, however maintain scattered MVFR and will continue to evaluate in future outlooks. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Heller AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 An intense upper low across western UT and western AZ will shear apart with one section of the upper trough lifting northeast across CO into NE, which will amplify as it phases with a northern branch upper trough digging southeast across the northern plains. The upper trough will then move east across NE and KS Tonight. As the H5 trough lifts northeast across CO into western NE and KS an H5 jet max of 55 to 60 KTS will spread northeast across eastern KS during the afternoon and evening hours. The mesoscale models such as the ARW and NMM version of the WRF and the GFS show a round of elevated thunderstorms developing as the upper jet lifts northeast from the TX PNHDL into western and central KS this morning. If these models turn out to be accurate then precip chances will be higher across the CWA during the mid and late morning hours. These elevated storms may rotate due to the increasing vertical windshear,so I can not rule out some large hail. However, the NAM and RAP models do not show elevated storms developing through the morning hours. This afternoon and evening, the surface trough and dryline will be moving east from western KS across central KS into the western counties of the CWA. There are difference in the speed of the dryline eastward progress. Most numerical model solutions move the surface dryline along a Seneca, to Manhattan line by 6 PM this evening. Surface convergence ahead of the dryline combined with ascent ahead of the H5 trough will break the weak cap and cause scattered thunderstorms to develop across northeast and east central KS. Every model shows there will be good vertical windshear and MLCAPE of 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG. The NAM models seems a bit too high with forecasting around 3000 J/KG of MLCAPE across east central KS. Instability will depend on how much elevated convection develops this morning, if any, and if there will be any insolation for surface heating ahead of the dryline. I think there will be widely scattered elevated thunderstorms during the mid morning hours but these storms should move northeast into MO by noon, then we should see some breaks in the OVC for surface heating ahead of the dryline. Given an environment with good vertical windshear and sufficient instability, we should see developing thunderstorms late this afternoon become supercell thunderstorms. The models due vary quite a bit on how much low-level vertical windshear will develop ahead of the dryline. The WRF model solutions show surface and 850mb winds to veer across the warm sector late this afternoon and early this evening. 0-1 KM SRH values are only 50 to 100 J/kg. Meanwhile the NAM model solution and to some extent the RAP model have surface winds a bit more backed and 850mb winds are not as veered. The NAM develops about 100 to 200 j/kg of SRH, which would be more conducive for any supercell thunderstorms to produce tornadoes. Even if winds are a bit veered as the mesoscale models forecast, I cannot rule out a few weak tornadoes. If the low-level winds back more ahead of the dryline then the tornado threat will be greater and the tornadoes may be more intense. Any supercell thunderstorms will also produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Most of the numerical models shift the threat for severe storms east of the CWA during the mid evening hours. The NAM model hangs up the dryline across the eastern counties of the CWA and storms continue to shift northeast across east central KS. I think over the mid evening hours the isolated supercells will evolve into line segment with the main hazards being damaging winds and perhaps some flash flooding if training of storms occur across the southeast counties of the CWA. The NAM model finally shifts the thunderstorms east of the CWA after midnight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Early Thursday morning a shortwave on the base of the main upper level trough will be over northeast Kansas. There remains a small chance for rain near the Nebraska boarder Thursday morning with soundings showing decent saturation and forcing in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Most the afternoon Thursday should be dry across the area before another shortwave passes just north of the area and rain chances clip extreme northeast Kansas. From here, precipitation chances end for the rest of the period. Winds shift from the south overnight Saturday, leading to a warm and dry Sunday with highs in the middle to low 70s. Sunday afternoon these southerly winds will gust up to 25kts, creating possible elevated fire concerns for this day. The rest of the period stays mild with highs generally in the upper 60s or low 70s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 622 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 MVFR cigs will continue through through the early afternoon hours at all terminals. Thunderstorms will be possible after 21Z at all terminals. The threat for thunderstorms will continue into the evening and early overnight hours before a cold front pushes all activity to the east. The cold front will also shift winds to a WNW direction by 4Z in MHK and 6Z at the Topeka terminals. Low cigs are possible behind the cold front, however confidence is too low at this point to introduce MVFR or lower cigs. Will reevaluate in later outlooks. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Heller AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 An intense upper low across western UT and western AZ will shear apart with one section of the upper trough lifting northeast across CO into NE, which will amplify as it phases with a northern branch upper trough digging southeast across the northern plains. The upper trough will then move east across NE and KS Tonight. As the H5 trough lifts northeast across CO into western NE and KS an H5 jet max of 55 to 60 KTS will spread northeast across eastern KS during the afternoon and evening hours. The mesoscale models such as the ARW and NMM version of the WRF and the GFS show a round of elevated thunderstorms developing as the upper jet lifts northeast from the TX PNHDL into western and central KS this morning. If these models turn out to be accurate then precip chances will be higher across the CWA during the mid and late morning hours. These elevated storms may rotate due to the increasing vertical windshear,so I can not rule out some large hail. However, the NAM and RAP models do not show elevated storms developing through the morning hours. This afternoon and evening, the surface trough and dryline will be moving east from western KS across central KS into the western counties of the CWA. There are difference in the speed of the dryline eastward progress. Most numerical model solutions move the surface dryline along a Seneca, to Manhattan line by 6 PM this evening. Surface convergence ahead of the dryline combined with ascent ahead of the H5 trough will break the weak cap and cause scattered thunderstorms to develop across northeast and east central KS. Every model shows there will be good vertical windshear and MLCAPE of 1500 J/KG to 2500 J/KG. The NAM models seems a bit too high with forecasting around 3000 J/KG of MLCAPE across east central KS. Instability will depend on how much elevated convection develops this morning, if any, and if there will be any insolation for surface heating ahead of the dryline. I think there will be widely scattered elevated thunderstorms during the mid morning hours but these storms should move northeast into MO by noon, then we should see some breaks in the OVC for surface heating ahead of the dryline. Given an environment with good vertical windshear and sufficient instability, we should see developing thunderstorms late this afternoon become supercell thunderstorms. The models due vary quite a bit on how much low-level vertical windshear will develop ahead of the dryline. The WRF model solutions show surface and 850mb winds to veer across the warm sector late this afternoon and early this evening. 0-1 KM SRH values are only 50 to 100 J/kg. Meanwhile the NAM model solution and to some extent the RAP model have surface winds a bit more backed and 850mb winds are not as veered. The NAM develops about 100 to 200 j/kg of SRH, which would be more conducive for any supercell thunderstorms to produce tornadoes. Even if winds are a bit veered as the mesoscale models forecast, I cannot rule out a few weak tornadoes. If the low-level winds back more ahead of the dryline then the tornado threat will be greater and the tornadoes may be more intense. Any supercell thunderstorms will also produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Most of the numerical models shift the threat for severe storms east of the CWA during the mid evening hours. The NAM model hangs up the dryline across the eastern counties of the CWA and storms continue to shift northeast across east central KS. I think over the mid evening hours the isolated supercells will evolve into line segment with the main hazards being damaging winds and perhaps some flash flooding if training of storms occur across the southeast counties of the CWA. The NAM model finally shifts the thunderstorms east of the CWA after midnight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Early Thursday morning a shortwave on the base of the main upper level trough will be over northeast Kansas. There remains a small chance for rain near the Nebraska boarder Thursday morning with soundings showing decent saturation and forcing in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Most the afternoon Thursday should be dry across the area before another shortwave passes just north of the area and rain chances clip extreme northeast Kansas. From here, precipitation chances end for the rest of the period. Winds shift from the south overnight Saturday, leading to a warm and dry Sunday with highs in the middle to low 70s. Sunday afternoon these southerly winds will gust up to 25kts, creating possible elevated fire concerns for this day. The rest of the period stays mild with highs generally in the upper 60s or low 70s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Little change to the existing TAF other than minor adjustments to the arrival timing of MVFR cigs. These cigs are currently in south central KS and should move over TAF sites by 09Z or so. Initially around 2500 feet, should fall closer to 1500 feet within 1-2 hours of arrival. Cigs will lift/scatter between 16z-19z with TS possible any time after 21Z and through the remainder of the TAF with limited confidence in exact timing. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Heller AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1206 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Have been closely monitoring incoming model data this evening, and the 01Z RAP, 00Z NAM, and 00Z HRRRexp have been showing some interesting model trends. First off, the trend has been toward slightly higher dewpoints by early afternoon with low 60s dewpoints into eastern KS. Another trend has been for the dryline to be setting up a bit farther to the west. At 19Z, the HRRRexp has the dryline from Minneapolis to Washington while the RAP is along Highway 81 and the NAM another 20 miles west. All models indicate at least some modification/mixing of low level moisture immediately in advance of the approaching dryline with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60. Afternoon surface winds are showing a consistent trend to have a westerly component and be veered as the surface low passes through eastern Nebraska. However, some concern remains for localized backing of winds between 21Z and 03Z as a new surface low deepens in south central KS. These are early indications, but all point to a continued and increasing severe weather threat across eastern Kansas between about 4 PM and 10 PM (or possibly later if the dryline stalls). Supercells look to be the primary storm mode but if winds remain veered into the late afternoon and evening could see more of a straight line hodograph with storm splitting and interaction, possibly resulting in some upscale growth and mixed modes. The take-away right now, based again on very early indications, is that the severe potential certainly exists through late afternoon and the evening with large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes all possible. If winds back ahead of the developing surface low in the evening and if dewpoints hold in the low 60s, then the tornado threat could increase markedly. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 306 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Elongated upper low was centered over the Inter-mountain West with a secondary shortwave trough continuing to drop south out of Manitoba territory. At the sfc, strong pressure gradient across the state with the sfc low over southeast CO has contributed to gusty southeast winds this afternoon in the 15 to 25 mph sustained range. Lower dewpoint temps across far eastern and northeast Kansas in addition to highs reaching the 60s has resulted in very high fire danger conditions across east central and far northeast Kansas. For this evening, the winds will persist in strength as the sfc low deepens eastward with an upper vorticity maxima ejecting northeast towards the northern plains. Southerly winds sustain between 15 and 25 mph at the sfc with occasional gusts up to 35 mph as the low level jet increases. Initial wave of lift will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to north central KS after midnight. Expect this activity to spread east over the CWA through the morning hours. This activity is not expected to be severe with the MU Cape values generally below 600 J/KG. In addition to the overcast skies, forecast soundings show much of the moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere coinciding with the best forcing, indicative of light drizzle during this time as well. How quickly this precip dissipates allowing skies to clear out is variable depending on the model, leading to some uncertainty to how the afternoon evolves. The WRF models and the GFS have been consistently faster to clear skies and the dry line towards the MO/KS border by late afternoon while the NAM, ECMWF, and SREF runs have been consistently slower, focusing the eastern half of the CWA in a more favorable area. These factors have lead to some uncertainty in fire danger conditions and severe convection developing in the late afternoon and evening hours. More details are mentioned in the next period. For highs on Wednesday, while depth of cloud cover and presence of precip is still uncertain, strong warm advection ahead of the dryline should help support temps reaching the lower 70s, possibly mid 70s over north central KS as the dryline passes. RH values therefore may quickly fall in north central areas to the lower 20 percent range in the late afternoon. Wind speeds at this time remain marginal at 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph so will not mention headlines at this point. However, very high fire danger is likely. Main concern this forecast period will be the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across portions of eastern KS. During the early afternoon a dry line will push eastward through the forecast area. This dry line will separate deep mixing from the deep low level moisture to the east. Soundings show that surface heating along with mid level cooling associated with the approaching trough will erode the cap in place. This will allow thunderstorms to form along the dry line during the late afternoon. If the surface heating remains limited due stratus east of the dry line then convective initiation may be difficult or delayed. The cape seems to vary between the models, but with a dew point in the upper 50s to near 60, and steep mid level lapse rates it should yield around 1000 to 1500 j/kg of MLcape if the stratus can manage to clear out. With the approaching mid level system deep layer shear will be on the order of 50 to 60 kts. The hodographs are mainly straight line with the exception of the NAM. The NAM shows some localized backed winds in the low levels and a strengthening low level jet, which causes 0-3 km SRH values to approach 400. In reality those values may be closer to 100 to 200. Storms if they develop will be moving at 50 mph to the northeast. All of these parameters will support supercell development with large hail and damaging wind as the main threats. Although given this environment some tornadoes will be possible as well. The 0-1 km and 0-3 km bulk shear values could support mesovortex circulations if cold pools were to congeal into any line segments. There is split model solutions on where the dry line will be when storms develop. The farthest west seems to be a line from Washington to Dickinson counties, while the farthest east would be Jefferson to Anderson counties. So quite some spread that leads to some uncertainty in this forecast. The earliest models develop convection appears to be around 4 pm, and given the storm motion should clear the forecast area by 7 pm. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 306 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 Thursday morning the synoptic cold front slides through the forecast area. Frontogenesis should provide enough lift for scattered showers mainly across northern KS. Initially there may be some mid level dry air to overcome before precipitation can reach the ground. Another shortwave will track towards the area in the northwest flow, which should clip northeast KS Thursday morning. This wave will bring the chance for showers after the low levels become saturated. The pattern remains quiet heading into the extended as northwest flow aloft continues. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Little change to the existing TAF other than minor adjustments to the arrival timing of MVFR cigs. These cigs are currently in south central KS and should move over TAF sites by 09Z or so. Initially around 2500 feet, should fall closer to 1500 feet within 1-2 hours of arrival. Cigs will lift/scatter between 16z-19z with TS possible any time after 21Z and through the remainder of the TAF with limited confidence in exact timing. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barjenbruch SHORT TERM...Bowen/Sanders LONG TERM...Sanders AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
942 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO REMOVE A LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED TO MENTION ONLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS FOR NOW AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO. CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR FORCING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD... DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...SME AND LOZ WILL BE EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS COULD CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEALTH OF THE STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS SYM...JKL...AND SJS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 8 AND 11Z TONIGHT. BKN TO OVC CLOUDS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z ON FRIDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 JUST FINISHED INGESTING THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS FOR NOW AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO. CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR FORCING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD... DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...SME AND LOZ WILL BE EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS COULD CAUSE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEALTH OF THE STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS SYM...JKL...AND SJS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 8 AND 11Z TONIGHT. BKN TO OVC CLOUDS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z ON FRIDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
129 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FURTHER TWEAK TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY RAISED SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH OBS AND LATEST HRRR GRIDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS LATE TONIGHT. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. KEPT IN THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF CHANCE STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ONTARIO FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INTRODUCED A BRIEF INCREASE IN POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL THE FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR REINFORCING SHORTWAVES...ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH...SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THE LATE EVENING...NECESSITATING A LLWS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL START TO LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CL .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY COLD FRONT...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CALLS TO FORESTRY PARTNERS INDICATED THAT FUELS WERE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1131 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FURTHER TWEAK TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY RAISED SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH OBS AND LATEST HRRR GRIDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS LATE TONIGHT. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. KEPT IN THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF CHANCE STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ONTARIO FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INTRODUCED A BRIEF INCREASE IN POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL THE FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR REINFORCING SHORTWAVES...ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH...SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEARLY CALM WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...EVEN AS GUSTS DECREASE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 KTS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LLWS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A THU/FRI COLD FRONT...AND THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CALLS TO FORESTRY PARTNERS INDICATED THAT FUELS WERE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
929 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS/RH SOMEWHAT FOR THE AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN. USED HRRR DEWPOINTS AS A STARTING POINT WITH SOME TWEAKS. MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS WELL. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS LATE TONIGHT. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS THURSDAY DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. KEPT IN THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF CHANCE STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ONTARIO FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INTRODUCED A BRIEF INCREASE IN POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL THE FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR REINFORCING SHORTWAVES...ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH...SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEARLY CALM WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...EVEN AS GUSTS DECREASE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 50 KTS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LLWS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A THU/FRI COLD FRONT...AND THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK IS POSSIBLE TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW FUELS WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF FIRES. CURRENTLY THE DRIEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONDITIONS WORSEN OR LOW HUMIDITIES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...A FIRE HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
955 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST PART. REGIONAL RADAR DATA DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO SRN LAKE MI...ALONG A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS. CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH OVER SE MI WILL ALSO BE LACKING...ADDING LITTLE SUPPORT TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE NIGHT FORECAST. SKIES HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS. A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW LOWER CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A NEED TO ADD DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FRI MORNING...SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO REFINE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 650 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS HEADED THIS WAY WILL PASS THROUGH LOCALS GENERALLY SOUTH OF FNT BETWEEN 2330Z AND 0030Z. THESE STORMS MARK THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THEIR PASSAGE...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W-SW AND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS POST FRONTAL MIXING DEPTHS LOWER. RECENT SATELLITE DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EXPECTATION OF SOME RAPID MOISTENING UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CEILING HEIGHTS DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AMID LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. FOR DTW...THE HIGH INTENSITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO METRO BETWEEN 2330Z AND 00Z AND SHOULD EXIT EAST BY 01Z. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER 30 KNOTS. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING. HIGH OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * HIGH IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 DISCUSSION... WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER, GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL. THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY NEARS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE... FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND. HYDROLOGY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ444. && $$ UPDATE.......SC AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...JVC/RK MARINE.......DG HYDROLOGY....DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
650 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .AVIATION... THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS HEADED THIS WAY WILL PASS THROUGH LOCALS GENERALLY SOUTH OF FNT BETWEEN 2330Z AND 0030Z. THESE STORMS MARK THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THEIR PASSAGE...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W-SW AND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS POST FRONTAL MIXING DEPTHS LOWER. RECENT SATELLITE DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EXPECTATION OF SOME RAPID MOISTENING UNDER A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CEILING HEIGHTS DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AMID LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. FOR DTW...THE HIGH INTENSITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO METRO BETWEEN 2330Z AND 00Z AND SHOULD EXIT EAST BY 01Z. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER 30 KNOTS. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING. HIGH OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * HIGH IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 DISCUSSION... WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER, GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL. THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY NEARS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE... FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND. HYDROLOGY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422- 441>443. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...JVC/RK MARINE.......DG HYDROLOGY....DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG BLDG INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 80M AT GRB AND APX...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER THE WRN CONUS. SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS ARE RESULTING IN QUIET WX OVER THE CWA DESPITE INCRSG HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN INCRSG SLY FLOW BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES TO THE SE AND FALLING MSLP IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN TROF. DESPITE THE INCRSG HI CLD COVER...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF...ESPECIALLY WHERE SLY FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING. SOME RA TO THE NE OF SFC WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS MOVED AS FAR NE AS FAR SW MN THIS AFTN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS AND TIMING ARRIVAL OF RA AHEAD OF PLAINS SFC LO PRES/WARM FNT FCST TO APRCH FM THE SW. TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL AIR...INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC RELATED TO SHARPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MSTR ADVECTION BEST SHOWN ON THE 290 AND 295K SFCS /ABOUT H8- 7/ AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX FCST NEAR JAMES BAY AT 12Z WED WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MORE PERSISTENT LLVL DRY AIR OVER THE SE HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WL HOLD DOWN POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH THE THICKENING CLDS AND STEADY SSW WINDS...THE OVERNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH SFC TEMPS FCST TO HOLD WELL ABOVE 32...THERE WL BE NO FROZEN/FRZG PCPN. WED...PERIODS OF RA UNDER AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/290-295K ISENSTROPIC ASCENT WL BE THE RULE. A SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH FLOW IS FCST TO REACH THE NW CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECWMF...SUGGESTS SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NRN BRANCH FLOW MAY RESULT IN DIMINISHING POPS OVER AT LEAST THE FAR NW LATE IN THE DAY. SO FCST WL RETAIN SOME LOWERING OF POPS IN THAT AREA TOWARD 00Z THU. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER SHOULD REMAIN IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE RIDGE WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP TROFFING INTO SE CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO SAT. WHILE CORE OF A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR WILL PASS BY TO THE NE...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY HERE INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY APR STANDARDS THIS WEEKEND. MODERATION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HELPS TO MAINTAIN ERN TROFFING. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MODERATION BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER... TEMPS COULD FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT THRU THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS MODELS SUGGEST WRN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY AT TIMES...ALLOWING LINGERING COLD AIR IN CANADA TO DUMP S BRIEFLY BEHIND PASSING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR PCPN...EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...PCPN WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING FRI WILL PRODUCE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHSN. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHSN. AFTER THE WEEKEND...THERE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL PCPN. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AND RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGEST THE NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WOULD OCCUR AROUND WED. BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU MANITOBA. BASED ON YESTERDAYS AND TODAY GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP WINTER STORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND OF HVY PCPN WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT SOME MDT TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NARROW IN ON A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI AND THRU THE STRAITS AREA...AND ALL AVBL 12Z MODELS NOW SHOW QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST S WITH COLDER AIR AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT EACH TIME STEP LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU. IN EXCLUDING THE NAM...EXPECT RAIN TO MIX GRADUALLY WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE WED NIGHT/THU...BEGINNING NW LATE WED EVENING AND NOT REACHING THE SE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN THU. WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM/DEFORMATION PCPN...HEAVIER PCPN WILL NOT EXTEND TOO FAR NW INTO THE COLDER AIR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF MAX SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVY RANGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI. PER 00Z AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM WATERSMEET/IRON RIVER NE THRU MICHIGAMME/NEGAUNEE SHOULD BE THE APPROXIMATE ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACHED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY FALLING DURING THE DAY THU WHEN WEAK SOLAR INSOLATION WILL AID MELTING...WATCH HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL THEN SWING THRU NRN ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING SCT TO NMRS -SHSN THAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CHILLY 500MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID -30S C. STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHSN. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO -17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE AS DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN VIGOROUS SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT. -SHSN WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT AND LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW...MAY NOT SEE MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AFTER LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN BY DAYTIME HEATING. HEADING INTO MON/TUE...THE LAST DAY OR SO OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE INTO THE RETREATING ERN TROF. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WEAK SFC WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR WOULD GENERATE A STREAK OF SN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS FOR POPS (MOSTLY SCHC) DUE TO THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF RUN-TO- RUN CONTINUITY. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE A POTENTIAL MIXED PCPN EVENT WED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AT ALL SITES. GUSTY S WINDS UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND DVLPG LO PRES IN THE PLAINS WL GIVE WAY TO SOME LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCRSG NEAR SFC STABILITY AT KSAW. AS THE SSW FLOW TAPS MOISTER AIR WED MRNG...EXPECT SOME -RA TO ARRIVE AND CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR IN THE MORNING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD AND LAST AT KSAW. BY AFTERNOON...KIWD AND KCMX WILL BE LIFR AND KSAW WILL BE MVFR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL STAY LIFR IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING HI PRES AND LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS... EXPECT SSW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NNW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONGER NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE THE RULE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS A LO PRES RIDES NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALES ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF ON THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS LO TO THE NE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE ON FRI. EXPECT ANOTHER LO TO TRACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE N LATE AT NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS COULD REACH AS HI AS 30 TO 35 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUN WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF TRAILING HI PRES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Expect VFR conditions with SCT/BKN low/mid level clouds overnight. There could be a stray sprinkle here or there, but nothing that should change any flight categories or affect any flights. Winds will pick up to around 15 to 25 kts mid morning Friday morning, and might actually gust to around 30 kts with better mixing. Will stick with 16G22KT for now and adjust up in future forecasts if necessary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 45 59 38 59 / 10 10 5 0 Quincy 40 52 34 54 / 30 30 10 0 Columbia 40 56 35 60 / 10 10 5 0 Jefferson City 41 58 35 61 / 10 10 5 0 Salem 43 57 37 58 / 10 5 10 0 Farmington 42 61 35 61 / 10 5 5 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 257 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...Dry Weather with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns through this Weekend... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1250 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 40 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 30 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 50 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Most of the showers were moving into southwest IL this evening with just a little patchy light rain elsewhere. Thunderstorms across parts of southwest MO are expected to weaken late this evening, but will likely move northeastward into parts of central and southeast MO towards midnight or shortly thereafter. The latest HRRR model runs indicate that most of the showers/storms should shift southeast of our forecast area by about 10Z early Thursday morning. It appears that the severe potential has lessened for the rest of tonight, although could not rule out isolated, elevated convection containing heavy rainfall and hail. With plenty of cloud cover, south-southeasterly surface winds and relatively strong southwesterly low level winds, and high surface dew points should not see much of a nocturnal temperature drop with temperatures holding nearly steady. Low temperatures tonight will be about 20 degrees above normal for late March. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Swly flow continues to pump moisture nwd into the area this afternoon. This is expected to continue into at least the evening hours with precip dissipating overnight. However, is some uncertainty regarding how the precip will evolve tonight. Most mdl guidance suggests ongoing precip shifting nwd and ewd over the next few hours, leaving a lull earlier in the evening. While a lull is expected between the WAA precip and a line of storms that will push out ahead of the cdfnt later tonight, exactly where and when this occurs is more uncertain. Have kept PoPs tonight rather high due to ongoing and more stratiform precip between cells. The bulk of the precip shud exit ern portions of the CWA by sunrise Thurs. The cdfnt associated with this system is expected to be just W of the CWA at 12z Thurs. Mdls prog a leading s/w lifting nwd thru wrn and nrn portions of the CWA around sunrise. This may allow for some sunrise surprise storms before lifting out of the area. This shud leave the remainder of the morning dry as the cdfnt continues to push ewd. Because of the slower timing of the cdfnt, have raised temps a fair amount in some areas compared to the prev forecast. Given that parts of KS still climbed into the mid 70s today behind the fnt, the going forecast for parts of cntl and into nern MO may be too cool. However, with more question of cloud cover, esp further N, trended a little cooler, but still twd the warmest guidance. This will also allow for TSRA to develop along the fnt as it pushes sewd thru the area. Expect TSRA to develop along the fnt during the early, to perhaps mid, afternoon mainly over the ern portions of the CWA. However, am a little concerned that mdls are pushing the fnt thru the area too quickly and have pulled PoPs wwd during the day to account for this. While TSRA may develop across nrn portions of the CWA or just N, develop shud continue swwd along the fnt as the upper trof helps cool temps aloft and the cap erodes. Given forecast parameters, expect supercells to develop along the fnt. While all severe threats will be possible, believe large hail will initially be the primary threat until the storms reach far ern portions of the CWA where low level shear is greater posing a greater tornado threat. However, there is some uncertainty regarding coverage as mdls are currently suggesting much of the cap eroding during the day. While storms may be discrete, there may not be much space between them later in the afternoon. .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Main changes to the forecast thru the rest of this week was to lower PoPs on Fri. Mdls keep much of the precip N of the area as the upper trof rotates thru. Did not completely remove PoPs during the afternoon as some SHRA activity is possible. Will need to watch temps for Fri night with guidance showing close to the freezing mark. However, with continued mixing expected overnight, winds may remain strong enuf to prevent frost from forming. For the weekend and beyond, not a lot of changes made from the prev forecast. More roller coaster temps expected with a rather strong cdfnt bringing a low chance for precip on Mon. This fnt will bring much cooler air into the area, and yet another possible freeze/frost event with light winds expected as the sfc ridge builds into the area. Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet another chance for precip. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE UTAH AND NEVADA BORDER. 100 METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA INTO NRN AZ AND A 90 KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM SAN DIEGO...TO FLAGSTAFF AZ. UPSTREAM OF THE LOW...RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE OZARKS NWD INTO NRN MINNESOTA...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION...LED TO THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 54 AT ONEILL TO 65 AT NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THE LATEST NAM12...GFS AND HRRR SOLNS INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NEBR/CO BORDER AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING...LIFTING THIS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND NWRN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOTED TONIGHT WITH 40 TO 60 KTS NOTED. HOWEVER MEAGER CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXIST...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MARGINAL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO GIVEN THE STRONG APPROACHING LOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A STRONG TS THREAT GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE LINE. OVERNIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF A H7 FRONT WHICH IS ANCHORED ALONG THE SD/NEBR BORDER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS H800 LI/S REMAIN NEGATIVE ACROSS THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...I KEPT IN A MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE INHERITED FCST. SHIFTING INTO WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PANHANDLE INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDS AM...AIR WILL COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A NICE AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WEDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EAST..IT OPENS UP AS IT INCREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY TIGHT WINDOW FOR CONDS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THIS WINDOW HAS BECOME SMALLER WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS AS H85 TEMPS ARE NOW RUNNING 1-2C WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE NORTHWEST...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 3-6 HR WINDOW WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. ATTM THAT IS APPROXIMATELY FROM 15 TO 21Z WEDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...CUT BACK SNOW ACCUMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NOW HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDS AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FURTHER EAST...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDS AFTN AND EVE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDS AM. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN FOR A STRONG STORM MAY LIE IN THE FAR NERN CWA WHICH MAY END UP INVOF OF A WARM FRONT WEDS AFTN. THIS IS MORE FAVORED WITH THE GFS SOLN AS THE NAM12 HAS THIS FRONT SE OF THE AREA BY 21Z. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 00Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND RESULTANT FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A MARKED DECREASE IN INTENSITY WELL BEFORE 06Z. THE DECREASE IN QPF HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ULJ DIVE SOUTH FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA. THE TROPOSPHERE IS SHOWN TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF QPF BEGINNING LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF IS SHOWN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE OMEGA IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN OVER SNOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE 18Z AND AFTER 00Z AS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THE DIURNAL TREND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT. DUE TO RAPID COOLING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THUS SHOWERS ARE PREFERRED...BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ADVANCES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH QPF ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BEYOND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE FORECAST TURNS DRY WITH A STARK WARMING TREND. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AT DAY 7 OR BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO THIS EVENING TRACKS EAST WEDNESDAY. THE NAM WAS PREFERRED AS IT FARTHEST SOUTH. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING THUS FAR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY PROGESSING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN IFR/LIFR ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004-094. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER SHORT TERM...BUTTLER LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE RAP...HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR ALL APPEAR TO BE ASSIMILATING EVENING RADAR TRENDS ACCURATELY AND WITH A SUPPORTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE BACK- GROUND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST QG FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THEY ALL SUGGEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WE THUS UTILIZED A TIME-LAGGED CONSENSUS OF THAT GUIDANCE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 08 AND 12 UTC AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT DUE IN PART TO THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION... AS EVIDENCED BY ANOTHER SET OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN OLIVER COUNTY BETWEEN 0200 AND 0230 UTC. UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THIS UPDATE FOCUSED ON MINOR REFINEMENTS TO POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. THE BAND OF RAIN AND MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS FROM MINOT SOUTHWARD TO GARRISON AND ELGIN AT 23 UTC IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...IT WAS OUTPACING THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A BIT. INTERESTINGLY...THERE WERE A FEW...MAINLY IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST ND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NONE HAVE BEEN DETECTED SINCE 2140 UTC AND THE WEAK SBCAPE SHOWN BY THE SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER THAT REGION IS WANING. THUS...WE REFRAINED FROM ADDING ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 FOLLOWING TWO FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TRACKING RATHER QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS PRODUCED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SO FAR TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY EVENING. A SECOND FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...WAS KICKING UP SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL TRACK THIS AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE HRRR POP TRENDS... BUT HAD TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS ITS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN THE HRRR TIME LAG ENSEMBLE. FOR THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY AROUND 55 MPH WERE SEEN AT HETTINGER. WINDS NOW FALLING TO THE MID 30S FOR GUSTS AND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. ON FRIDAY...THE PRECIP WILL END BY SUNRISE. WILL STILL HAVE A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH FRIDAY 40 TO 50. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH JUST A SMALL HINT OF CAPE ON THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A MENTION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...DO NOT SEE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH.. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AFTER 18 UTC. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL DOWN OVER SE WY/NE CO/NEB PANHANDLE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. MOST OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT DOWN THROUGH ND LATE TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL SD BY TOMORROW. BOTH THE SHORT/HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL RUNS BRING SOME HEALTHY QPF INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS AND RAP BOTH HAVE SOME FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z THURSDAY...THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO PRECIP TYPE. THE SREF PROBABILITIES HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP...BUT TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC LOW IN CANADA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. 925MB TEMPS ARE RIGHT AT THE 0 C MARK...BUT SOME DYNAMIC COOLING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. INCLUDED SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND PUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY HIGHLIGHT OUT AT THIS POINT. THINK THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION. THINK THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN OUR TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE THESE TYPE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY WITH 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY. THINK THAT PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW...AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SAT WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MON AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MEANS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED... SLIGHTLY COOLER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN THROUGHOUT TUES... IMPLYING WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS IN WESTERN ND SHOULD HAVE A WARMING WESTERLY COMPONENT. ON WED A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE CLIPPED KFAR/KBJI THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS. NOW QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS IS FORMING IN THE SUNNY REGION JUST BEHIND THESE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE THIS CUMULUS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EITHER A SCT OR BKN LAYER. NORTH WINDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON THU MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT BECOMING RATHER GUSTY BY MID MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...MODELS ALSO BRING IN SOME PCPN THU MORNING. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX...SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A MIX AND LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE A LITTLE BETTER. NAM/GFS WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THIS IN WITH THE ECMWF ONLY BRINGING IT INTO KDVL ON THU MORNING. SO THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/GODON AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE RAIN SO HAVE USED THAT FOR LATEST UPDATE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 00-01 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RAIN BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 INCREASED POPS ACROSS GRANT...MORTON AND OLIVER COUNTIES THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS OF AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED BY THE 18-21 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION OF NEVADA/UTAH...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE LOW EJECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ECHOS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND ANOTHER LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS MOVING NORTH OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRONT. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS STALLS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS TONIGHT...BAND OF PRECIPITATION NOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z...THEN DISSIPATES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WED AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING NORTH AND WEST OF THAT AREA. NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS AN EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. INITIALLY RAIN IS FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MIX THEN ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THUR AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. 1-2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SNOW AND BUFKIT INDICATING A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SUPERSATURATION AND OMEGA PEAKED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE OBSERVED WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016 WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS NOW FORECAST FOR THURSDAY SO PLAN TO REMOVE THIS WORDING FROM THE HWO. FOR FRIDAY...MODELS BRING IN A DEEPER SFC LOW AND GREATER PRESSURE RISES AS A CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL THUS BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT MOISTURE CHANCES. NAM BUFKIT INDICATING WARNING CRITERIA WIND MAGNITUDES WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER...SO WILL WANT TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WILL MENTION THE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY IN THE THE HWO ALONG WITH THE WET SNOW/TRAVEL IMPACT POTENTIAL WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINLY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY HIGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 MVFR CIGS OVER PTNS OF S CTRL ND WITH -SHRA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR LEVELS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS MAINLY VFR. THIS EVENING...AREAS OF -RA/-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS WITH LCL IFR VIS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .DISCUSSION... FIRE WEATHER AND 30/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW... && .FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS VALID FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAPID SCAN SATELLITE OPERATIONS ARE BEING UTILIZED TO MONITOR FOR NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. CRITICALLY DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TOWARD WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WEST OF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST FIRE EFFECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 3-7 PM...WHEN RH/WIND COMBINATIONS WILL APPROACH AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE AS LAST WEEK...BUT POSITIVE EFFECTS OF THE WEEKEND MOISTURE HAVE BEEN MITIGATED IN FINE FUELS AND A FAVORABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR FIRE IS IDENTIFIED WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE DRYLINE BEING OVERSPREAD BY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR MAINTAINING THE REPORTED 95 PERCENT CONTAINMENT OF THE ANDERSON CREEK FIRE GIVEN TODAY/S CRITICAL WEATHER...AND MONITORING FOR NEWLY DETECTED FIRE STARTS. LINDLEY && .AVIATION...30/18Z TAF ISSUANCE... MVFR CONDITIONS AND VCTS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR AVIATORS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. VIS SAT AND OBS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS... BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... GUSTING 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WILL IMPACT WESTERN AIRFIELDS. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KURTZ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/ DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY/TONIGHT. CURRENTLY... I/VE STARTED... STOPPED... AND RE-WROTE THIS AFD SEVERAL TIMES IN THE LAST HOUR... SO YES... IT/S A MESSY CONVECTIVE SET UP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FROM 16Z SFC ANALYSIS... CONVERGENCE OF SFC WINDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS... MID TO UPPER 60S... HAVE POOLED ALONG A SUBTLE 850/700MB FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE CHANCES FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON HAIL... WITH 1 TO 1 AND HALF INCH HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. BIG DISCUSSION IN THE OFFICE AT THE MOMENT IS THE THOUGHT THAT THIS MAY BE THE EVENT FOR TODAY... AS THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE SOME... POSSIBLY MODERATE IMPACT... ON ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND... THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAS DONE WELL OVER ITS LAST THREE RUNS WITH THIS INITIAL CONVECTION AND WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT INTO THE AFTERNOON. I/LL TOUCH MORE ON THAT BELOW. FIRST... DON/T FORGET FIRE WEATHER... IMPRESSIVE DEW POINTS UP STREAM IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AS THE DRY LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. AS THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST THROUGH 1 TO 3 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... RH VALUES WILL TANK INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS... WHILE ALREADY BREEZY S/SW WINDS INCREASE... BECOMING MORE W/SW WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. AT PRESENT TIME... DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AS MENTIONED ABOVE... 16Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SFC TROUGH/ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE PUSH OF THIS BOUNDARY... CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BREAK ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY... BUT DISSIPATION IS SLOW... HAVE SEEN A FEW BREAKS AT THE OFFICE... AND ON VIS... SO EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT/INITIAL CONVECTION PUSHES EAST. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE DRY LINE MAKES ITS SURGE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 2 TO 4 PM. LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR... 30/13Z HAS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION... AROUND 19 TO 20Z. THIS IS STILL A MESSY CONVECTIVE SETUP... HOW THE ATMOSPHERE REBOUNDS FROM EARLY CONVECTION WILL PLAY A VITAL ROLE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL... WITH SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINTS... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPROACHING 70... SBCAPE VALUES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING HAIL... UP TO GOLF BALLS... POSSIBLY LARGER... NEAR TENNIS BALLS. AS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL... LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE... 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES ARE WEAK AS THE DRY LINE PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH VALUES OF 0-1 KM HELICITY ONLY 50 TO 120 S2/H2. HOWEVER... WITH LOWER LCLS AND STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT... A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOW... AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON... THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. AFTER SUNSET... THE LLJ WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SWING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... LIKELY EAST OF OUR CWA IN TULSA AND SHREVEPORT/S AREAS. JUST A QUICK LOOK... BUT 0-1KM COMPUTED CAPE AND 0-3KM SHEAR COMPARED TO CORFIDI VECTORS... A DECENT MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX TOWARDS THE OUACHITAS AND SOUTHERN OZARKS. LATER AFDS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. KURTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 67 40 61 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 44 68 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 46 70 42 61 / 10 0 0 10 GAGE OK 39 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 44 65 37 60 / 20 0 0 0 DURANT OK 54 70 44 61 / 40 10 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087- 088. && $$ 09/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 .DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY/TONIGHT. CURRENTLY... I/VE STARTED... STOPPED... AND RE-WROTE THIS AFD SEVERAL TIMES IN THE LAST HOUR... SO YES... IT/S A MESSY CONVECTIVE SET UP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FROM 16Z SFC ANALYSIS... CONVERGENCE OF SFC WINDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS... MID TO UPPER 60S... HAVE POOLED ALONG A SUBTLE 850/700MB FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE CHANCES FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON HAIL... WITH 1 TO 1 AND HALF INCH HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. BIG DISCUSSION IN THE OFFICE AT THE MOMENT IS THE THOUGHT THAT THIS MAY BE THE EVENT FOR TODAY... AS THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE SOME... POSSIBLY MODERATE IMPACT... ON ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND... THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAS DONE WELL OVER ITS LAST THREE RUNS WITH THIS INITIAL CONVECTION AND WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT INTO THE AFTERNOON. I/LL TOUCH MORE ON THAT BELOW. FIRST... DON/T FORGET FIRE WEATHER... IMPRESSIVE DEW POINTS UP STREAM IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AS THE DRY LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. AS THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST THROUGH 1 TO 3 PM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... RH VALUES WILL TANK INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS... WHILE ALREADY BREEZY S/SW WINDS INCREASE... BECOMING MORE W/SW WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. AT PRESENT TIME... DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AS MENTIONED ABOVE... 16Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SFC TROUGH/ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE PUSH OF THIS BOUNDARY... CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BREAK ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY... BUT DISSIPATION IS SLOW... HAVE SEEN A FEW BREAKS AT THE OFFICE... AND ON VIS... SO EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT/INITIAL CONVECTION PUSHES EAST. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE DRY LINE MAKES ITS SURGE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 2 TO 4 PM. LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR... 30/13Z HAS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION... AROUND 19 TO 20Z. THIS IS STILL A MESSY CONVECTIVE SETUP... HOW THE ATMOSPHERE REBOUNDS FROM EARLY CONVECTION WILL PLAY A VITAL ROLE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL... WITH SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINTS... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPROACHING 70... SBCAPE VALUES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING HAIL... UP TO GOLF BALLS... POSSIBLY LARGER... NEAR TENNIS BALLS. AS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL... LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE... 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES ARE WEAK AS THE DRY LINE PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH VALUES OF 0-1 KM HELICITY ONLY 50 TO 120 S2/H2. HOWEVER... WITH LOWER LCLS AND STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT... A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOW... AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON... THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. AFTER SUNSET... THE LLJ WILL INCREASE AS THE H500 SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SWING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... LIKELY EAST OF OUR CWA IN TULSA AND SHREVEPORT/S AREAS. JUST A QUICK LOOK... BUT 0-1KM COMPUTED CAPE AND 0-3KM SHEAR COMPARED TO CORFIDI VECTORS... A DECENT MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX TOWARDS THE OUACHITAS AND SOUTHERN OZARKS. LATER AFDS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. KURTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 47 67 40 / 40 10 0 0 HOBART OK 80 44 68 37 / 20 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 83 46 70 42 / 30 10 0 0 GAGE OK 77 39 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 78 44 65 37 / 30 20 0 0 DURANT OK 74 54 70 44 / 70 40 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087- 088. && $$ 09/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
703 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT WINTRY. THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A STG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE ARND 100W. THE WRN RIDGE IS NEAR ITS PEAK FOR THIS AMPLIFICATION CYCLE. SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW WL FOLLOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS A COLD AND FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPLY A NEARLY CONTINUOUS FEED OF CANADIAN AIR MASSES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THAT KEEP AMNTS IN CHECK...WITH NR NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED OSHKOSH TO GREEN BAY. MEANWHILE...RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO HAVE TAKEN PLACE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXIT NORTHEAST WI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THESE FEATURES IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND ALSO CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER DOOR COUNTY. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...MODELS ARE QUITE QUICK IN BRINGING IN CLEARING BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING AND NORTH WINDS...HAVE A HARD TIME ENVISIONING IT HAPPENING THIS QUICKLY. THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS ARE THE BEST BETS...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY SUNRISE. FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS PROJECT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE IN RELATIVELY SHORT SUPPLY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI BEFORE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL SHOW UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE FORECAST. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALLS ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS AFTN. THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE YDA HAS BEEN TO DIG THE SPEED MAX/SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CYCLONE TRACKING ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT FARTHER S. THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO GETTING A LITTLE MORE SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE NE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. IT ALSO CUTS DOWN A LITTLE ON THE WIND POTENTIAL...AS THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STG WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT THROUGH TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA. SATURDAY WL STILL BE A WINDY DAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AOA 40 MPH NOW LOOKS LOWER THAN IT DID YDA. THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WL ARRIVE /AND EXIT/ A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. TRACK OF SYSTEM IS A LITTLE FARTHER N...AND COULD CUT ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM- UP OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS PACIFIC AIR IN THE WARM SECETOR OF THE CYCLONE BRIEFLY SHIFTS THROUGH. THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGER SLOWER MOVG CYCLONE THAT REACHES THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC TO DRAW AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA AS IT APPROACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY WANE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE PLACE LATER TONIGHT GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BKN CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE BROADER LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TAF CLOUD TRENDS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN WHAT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 16 UTC. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 PESKY DEFORMATION FORCED COLD RAIN PERSISTS FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI. SOME OF THIS RAIN WAS REPORTED MIXING AT TIMES WITH SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN. OTHERWISE...AND AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SUFFERING QUITE A BIT UNDER THAT DEFORMATION AREA RAIN WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. SOME LOWER/MIDDLE 40S WERE SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WILL BE SEEING THAT DEFORMATION AREA RAIN RAPIDLY ERODE. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING DOWN THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE. ONE WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO DIVE JUST WEST/SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 925-700MB FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE PER THE NAM...SO SHOULD SEE A SCATTERED/BROKEN NE TO SW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE KICKING IN. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S. MODELS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS NEXT AND MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. NICE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCE CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW SWINGS SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. ATTENTION TURNS TO WINDS SATURDAY IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER COUPLE MODEL RUNS BEFORE HOISTING. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PULLING IN COLDER AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN ANOTHER LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN/SNOW. APPEARS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SLIP INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY CLOSING IN ON 60 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. QUIET/COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. PLAN ON HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DAYTIME RAIN/NIGHTTIME RAIN AND SNOW MIX. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THE SOUTH DAKOTA WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THERE IS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE OTHER WAVE. THE 31.18Z NAM MOVES BOTH OF THESE WAVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CONCERN IS WHETHER THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL IMPACT EITHER TAF SITE. THE 31.21Z HRRR AND 31.20Z CR-HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AND INDICATE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF WHAT HEATING THERE HAS BEEN WITH THE REMAINING ACTIVITY STAYING IN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. PLAN TO START KRST WITH A VCSH TO INDICATE THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE OVER BOTH SITES FOR MOST OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. ONCE THIS ENDS...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY BUT IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY. A PRETTY DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL FORM IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM UP THROUGH 750 MB...EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR BOTH SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH WISCONSIN DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL FROM THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVELS/WITHIN BANK STREAMFLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...DAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT WINTRY. THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A STG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE ARND 100W. THE WRN RIDGE IS NEAR ITS PEAK FOR THIS AMPLIFICATION CYCLE. SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW WL FOLLOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS A COLD AND FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPLY A NEARLY CONTINUOUS FEED OF CANADIAN AIR MASSES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THAT KEEP AMNTS IN CHECK...WITH NR NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED OSHKOSH TO GREEN BAY. MEANWHILE...RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO HAVE TAKEN PLACE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXIT NORTHEAST WI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THESE FEATURES IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND ALSO CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER DOOR COUNTY. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...MODELS ARE QUITE QUICK IN BRINGING IN CLEARING BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING AND NORTH WINDS...HAVE A HARD TIME ENVISIONING IT HAPPENING THIS QUICKLY. THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS ARE THE BEST BETS...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY SUNRISE. FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS PROJECT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE IN RELATIVELY SHORT SUPPLY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI BEFORE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL SHOW UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE FORECAST. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALLS ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS AFTN. THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE YDA HAS BEEN TO DIG THE SPEED MAX/SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CYCLONE TRACKING ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT FARTHER S. THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO GETTING A LITTLE MORE SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE NE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. IT ALSO CUTS DOWN A LITTLE ON THE WIND POTENTIAL...AS THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STG WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT THROUGH TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA. SATURDAY WL STILL BE A WINDY DAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AOA 40 MPH NOW LOOKS LOWER THAN IT DID YDA. THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WL ARRIVE /AND EXIT/ A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. TRACK OF SYSTEM IS A LITTLE FARTHER N...AND COULD CUT ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM- UP OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS PACIFIC AIR IN THE WARM SECETOR OF THE CYCLONE BRIEFLY SHIFTS THROUGH. THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGER SLOWER MOVG CYCLONE THAT REACHES THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC TO DRAW AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA AS IT APPROACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IL/WI BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ANOTHER INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ON GRASSY SURFACES. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE IN CLEARING. THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. DO THINK WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SLOWED THE IMPROVEMENT DOWN SOME. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WITH A MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND VERY WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 122 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS IT/S FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NW CT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK FOR ANY STEADIER RAINFALL TO MOVE IN...MAINLY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR ONLY SLOWING FALLING...WITH MIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW...THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SFC-H850 LAYER INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS IT WILL BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS WESTWARD FROM THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL NY INTO ERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z. PWATS RISE ABOVE NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0 TO -2C FROM THE GFS/NAM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL START OUT VERY BALMY WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWER TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME 50S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AS THE FRONT SAGS S/SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FRI NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EVENING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO 0C TO +2C SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND OC TO -5C NORTH AND WEST. SCT SHOWERS END EARLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS 09Z-12Z FOR A THREAT OF ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS. SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...A POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE POTENT SHORT-WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT. H850/925 TEMPS LOWER WELL BELOW FREEZING BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ACTUALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE...H850 TEMPS FALL TO -12C TO -18C FROM SE TO NW OVER THE FCST AREA. CRITICAL THICKNESSES COUPLED WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...LOW AND MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SAT EVENING TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS. MOST LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ACTUALLY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ERN CATSKILLS...COULD GET 2-4". IT WILL BECOME WINDY AND VERY COLD. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND U50S IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. LOWS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 20S TO L30S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINTERLIKE AND ACTIVE. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH...IF NOT STRONGER. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS MAY REBOUND SLIGHTLY...INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR SUN NT-MON NT...AFTER A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND INTO PA/SE NY. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY TIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO A SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH WITH THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL RESULT IN DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 40S OR WARMER...WHILE SNOW AND HIGHS IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S FOR NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT DYNAMICS...PARTICULARLY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...COULD BE VERY STRONG...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH OF MODERATE OR HEAVY PRECIP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK...WHICH COULD BE SNOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...ESP NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW MAY ARRIVE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A SNOWY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF MON EVE...WITH COLDER AIR INFILTRATING THE ENTIRE REGION IN ITS WAKE. AS FOR TEMPS FOR SUN NT-MON NT...OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR SUN NT/MON AM...THEN RANGE FROM THE 20S/LOWER 30S TO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE STORM. MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S AND 30S TUE...AND 30S TO LOWER 40S WED. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WED NT-THU...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR LATE WED NT INTO THU. P-TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE PROBLEMATIC...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED NT THROUGH THU AM...WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY PERSIST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATER THU. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT COULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS THU NT. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED...SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS WE GO TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION STARTING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO DELAY FOR KPSF/KPOU. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN- CONJUCNTION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THROUGH 00Z...PERHAPS EVEN PAST 00Z AT KPOU. THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST PAST ALL TAF SITES RIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 00Z AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU AND AROUND 03Z SATURDAY FOR KPSF. VCSH WILL BE STILL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TO THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD HIGHLIGHTING THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR/MVFR LEVELS AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...SN. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33.0 CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER THE 70 TO 100 PERCENT BY TOMORROW MORNING...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THE RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE 50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE...AND INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. OVERALL...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTION. DUE TO RATHER LOW WATER LEVELS...NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS ON THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. RIVER FLOWS SHOULD RECEDE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...LFM FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...UPDATED FOR CHANGES IN MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY... .SYNOPSIS... 09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...AND CONTINUING OVER NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS BEING FORCED WAY TO THE NORTH INTO ALASKA OVER-TOP A SHARP AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...BEFORE DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO MONTANA/IDAHO/GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS MERIDIONAL DIP CARVES OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT PLANES...UPPER MIDWEST...AND MS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT EYES AN ARRIVAL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AMPLIFICATION INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HAVE WEATHER IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL AREA FOR SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF A NORTH-SOUTH PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...AND BAND OF ASSOCIATED RAIN/STORMS. CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHRINK BACK TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE RATHER WARM AND HUMID FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DELIVERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE. AWAY FROM SHORE...OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WEST OF THE NATURE COAST...WE ARE SEEING INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH APALACHEE BAY COASTAL OBS...THAT A BAND OF SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALWAYS DIFFICULT WITHOUT OBS OVER THE WATER TO DETERMINE IF THESE FEATURES ARE INDEED FOG OR LOW LEVEL STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SPORT SST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER 60S WATER TEMPS UNDER THE BAND...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S...IT IS CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE BAND IS INDEED FOG. HAVE SIDED WITH CAUTION AND ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE WATERS ADJACENT TO PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 15Z. HOPEFULLY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF THE SUN BEING UP...SOME DIURNAL MIXING (ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED OVER THE WATER) WILL HELP LIFT ANY FOG BACK TO A LOWER STRATUS DECK...RESULTING IN LESS IMPACT TO MARINE NAVIGATION. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... TODAY...A WARM AND HUMID FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GENERALLY SPEAKING WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...AND MOST LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR DEEP ASCENT REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND LEVY COUNTY...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO KEEP THE CONVECTION TODAY JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FURTHER SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF COLD POOL BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS UP TOWARD I-10...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS REACHING THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% RAIN CHANCE OVER THIS FAR NORTHERN ZONE AND QUICKLY TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN FURTHER SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS FORECAST AS THE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEEDING THE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY IS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA-BREEZE. MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS AFTER 19-20Z OVER POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY SPARSE...AND ANY RAINFALL SHORT- LIVED. PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH HIGHER TOWARD NOT SEEING RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THAN OF SEEING A SHOWER. GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AS THE POTENTIAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN IS HIGH...AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL BE GOOD. LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90S TO SHOW UP WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER...BUT MANY BEACHES SHOULD STILL SUCCEED IN REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. TONIGHT/SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE MEANINGFUL PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...HELPING TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SPREADING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. MAY TAKE SOME TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT AN INCREASING RAIN CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...LEVY COUNTY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE WHOLE THING WILL THEN SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FURTHER NORTH YOU ARE...THE EARLIER THE RAINFALL...THE MORE LIKELY THE RAINFALL...AND THE HEAVIER THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS TO PASS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...SO THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 WILL SEE DECREASING OVERALL SUPPORT. DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY OFTER WE SEE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD POOLS...DUE TO LIMITATIONS WITH MOST BOUNDARY LAYER SCHEMES TOWARD THE EVOLUTION OF MCS OUTFLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPECT THE ACTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN TO MOVE FASTER THAN SHOWN BY MOST NWP MEMBERS. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FROM A LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC POINT OF VIEW...AND ALSO THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. 40 KNOTS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. A MARGINAL RISK SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE LET OUR GUARD DOWN. A MARGINAL RISK STILL MEANS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED QLCS (QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) TORNADO THREAT CAN ALSO EXIST WITH A MARGINAL RISK...KEEPING IN MIND THAT QLCS TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH STILL DANGEROUS...MOST OFTEN FALL WITHIN THE EF-0 OR EF-1 RANKINGS. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR MONDAY...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ONE PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN QUICKLY OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FEEL A BIT DIFFERENT (MORE HUMID) OUTSIDE THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS DUE TO THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... BEGINNING TO SEE THE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNRISE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY WILL BE AT KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SOME SEA FOG WELL OFFSHORE...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADVECTING THE FOG ONSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT CURRENT TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT ANTICIPATE SEA FOG ISSUES FOR THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BAND OF MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES ADJACENT TO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM EDT. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE FOG BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE BEFORE SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST. FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITHIN A FEW HOUR OF SUNRISE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE UP TOWARD COASTAL LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES WHERE SOME SEA FOG MAY BE A FACTOR LATER INTO THE DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 72 80 61 / 0 10 70 40 FMY 87 72 85 68 / 0 0 30 20 GIF 87 71 82 61 / 20 0 70 30 SRQ 79 72 79 64 / 0 10 70 40 BKV 86 69 78 57 / 10 10 80 30 SPG 83 72 80 65 / 0 10 70 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
457 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... 09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...AND CONTINUING OVER NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS BEING FORCED WAY TO THE NORTH INTO ALASKA OVER-TOP A SHARP AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...BEFORE DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO MONTANA/IDAHO/GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS MERIDIONAL DIP CARVES OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT PLANES...UPPER MIDWEST...AND MS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT EYES AN ARRIVAL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS AMPLIFICATION INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HAVE WEATHER IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL AREA FOR SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF A NORTH-SOUTH PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...AND BAND OF ASSOCIATED RAIN/STORMS. CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHRINK BACK TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THAT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE RATHER WARM AND HUMID FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DELIVERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE. AWAY FROM SHORE...OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES WEST OF THE NATURE COAST...WE ARE SEEING INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH APALACHEE BAY COASTAL OBS...THAT A BAND OF SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALWAYS DIFFICULT WITHOUT OBS OVER THE WATER TO DETERMINE IF THESE FEATURES ARE INDEED FOG OR LOW LEVEL STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SPORT SST ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER 60S WATER TEMPS UNDER THE BAND...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S...IT IS CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE BAND IS INDEED FOG. HAVE SIDED WITH CAUTION AND ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE OFFSHORE WATERS(BEYOND 20NM FROM SHORE) ADJACENT TO PINELLAS/PASCO/HERNANDO/CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 15Z. HOPEFULLY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF THE SUN BEING UP...SOME DIURNAL MIXING (ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED OVER THE WATER) WILL HELP LIFT ANY FOG BACK TO A LOWER STRATUS DECK...RESULTING IN LESS IMPACT TO MARINE NAVIGATION. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... TODAY...A WARM AND HUMID FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GENERALLY SPEAKING WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...AND MOST LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR DEEP ASCENT REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND LEVY COUNTY...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS DO KEEP THE CONVECTION TODAY JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF LEVY COUNTY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FURTHER SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF COLD POOL BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS UP TOWARD I-10...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS REACHING THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A 20-30% RAIN CHANCE OVER THIS FAR NORTHERN ZONE AND QUICKLY TAPER RAIN CHANCES DOWN FURTHER SOUTH. FEEL CONFIDENT IN THIS FORECAST AS THE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEEDING THE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY IS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH UNTIL TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA-BREEZE. MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS AFTER 19-20Z OVER POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY SPARSE...AND ANY RAINFALL SHORT- LIVED. PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH HIGHER TOWARD NOT SEEING RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THAN OF SEEING A SHOWER. GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AS THE POTENTIAL OF THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN IS HIGH...AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL BE GOOD. LOOKING FOR MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90S TO SHOW UP WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER...BUT MANY BEACHES SHOULD STILL SUCCEED IN REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. TONIGHT/SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO MAKE MEANINGFUL PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...HELPING TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SPREADING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT OVER THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. MAY TAKE SOME TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT AN INCREASING RAIN CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...LEVY COUNTY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE WHOLE THING WILL THEN SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FURTHER NORTH YOU ARE...THE EARLIER THE RAINFALL...THE MORE LIKELY THE RAINFALL...AND THE HEAVIER THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS TO PASS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...SO THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 WILL SEE DECREASING OVERALL SUPPORT. DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY OFTER WE SEE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD POOLS...DUE TO LIMITATIONS WITH MOST BOUNDARY LAYER SCHEMES TOWARD THE EVOLUTION OF MCS OUTFLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPECT THE ACTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN TO MOVE FASTER THAN SHOWN BY MOST NWP MEMBERS. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS VALID GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FROM A LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC POINT OF VIEW...AND ALSO THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. 40 KNOTS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. A MARGINAL RISK SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE LET OUR GUARD DOWN. A MARGINAL RISK STILL MEANS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED QLCS (QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) TORNADO THREAT CAN ALSO EXIST WITH A MARGINAL RISK...KEEPING IN MIND THAT QLCS TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH STILL DANGEROUS...MOST OFTEN FALL WITHIN THE EF-0 OR EF-1 RANKINGS. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR MONDAY...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ONE PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN QUICKLY OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FEEL A BIT DIFFERENT (MORE HUMID) OUTSIDE THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS DUE TO THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... BEGINNING TO SEE THE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNRISE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY WILL BE AT KLAL/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SOME SEA FOG WELL OFFSHORE...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADVECTING THE FOG ONSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT CURRENT TAF PACKAGE DOES NOT ANTICIPATE SEA FOG ISSUES FOR THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BAND OF MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES (GREATER THAN 20NM FROM SHORE) ADJACENT TO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE OFFSHORE ZONE IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM EDT. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE FOG BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE BEFORE SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST. FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITHIN A FEW HOUR OF SUNRISE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE UP TOWARD COASTAL LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES WHERE SOME SEA FOG MAY BE A FACTOR LATER INTO THE DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 72 80 61 / 0 10 70 40 FMY 87 72 85 68 / 0 0 30 20 GIF 87 71 82 61 / 20 0 70 30 SRQ 79 72 79 64 / 0 10 70 40 BKV 86 69 78 57 / 10 10 80 30 SPG 83 72 80 65 / 0 10 70 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
142 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...Severe storms and flooding possible through early Saturday... .Aviation... [Through 06Z Saturday] Aviators are in for periods of low cigs and rain as a cold front moves very slowly southeastward across the region later today and tonight. We expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to develop by daybreak across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL, then spreading eastward across north FL and south GA by early afternoon. A few storms could be severe with 50 KT gusts and large hail. There may be a lull in storms, at least at KTLH and KVLD, late this afternoon and evening; while KDHN, KABY, and KECP will have the most persistent rain. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs will be the rule through much of the period. && .Prev Discussion [818 PM EDT]... .Near Term [Through Tonight]... A trough was extended across the central/western US with a shortwave embedded in the through across the central Plains to mid- Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A slow moving cold front was associated with this system and the front will push into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. A complex of storms has been pushing across AL/GA today with the stronger storms across southern Alabama. This is the area on the northern side of the better CAPE (around 1000 J/kg) and the southern side of the better shear. While CAPE values will be decent across the western extent of the CWA, the area will be slightly less favorable than further westward. Still the potential for severe storms though into this evening, particularly across the western portion of the CWA. While some models have struggled with depicting the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, the HRRR consistently showed the showers and thunderstorms pushing into the CWA this afternoon. Have trended the forecast for the evening towards the HRRR and thus increased PoPs across the western half of the CWA through this evening. Some of this activity may linger into tonight, but then expect a lull before another round moves into SE Alabama late tonight. Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees above normal. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Deep moist southwest flow aloft through Friday night will gradually flatten becoming zonal by Saturday night as the axis of the broad trough swings to our east. The associated cold front entering the Lower Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period will slowly translate eastward across our CWA Friday night through midday Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with some containing very heavy rainfall. A surface low is expected to develop along the boundary in the northern Gulf Friday and lift northeastward across the Florida Panhandle. This will further enhance convection with heavy rains and we have issued a flash flood watch for all but the SE Big Bend and a few of our southeast Georgia counties. The watch is in effect through 8 am Saturday as we expect widespread QPF amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts between 5 and 6 inches. In addition to the flash flood threat, we still have the potential for severe weather with the greatest threat during the Friday to Friday night time frame. SPC has a portion of western zones highlighted in the slight risk through tonight and all but our SE Big bend zones for Friday/Friday night. The greatest threat continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds but large hail and isolated tornados are also possible. The cold front is expected to be roughly along a line from near Albany to Apalachicola around daybreak Saturday with a marginal risk for severe weather along and to the east of there. The cold front is expected to clear all zones by noon or shortly thereafter. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much drier airmass will filter in through Monday. A dry cold front will drop down from the north bringing a re-enforcement of drier air on Tuesday that will continue at least into the middle of the week. A stronger cold front may arrive late Wednesday or Thursday bringing with it the next chance for rain. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. .Marine... Moderate southerly winds will persist through Friday night before a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday. Marginal exercise caution conditions are possible at times through Friday, especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will develop on Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible from Friday night through Saturday night, mainly across the western waters. .Fire Weather... There are no fire weather concerns. A soaking rain is expected by Friday if not sooner. Drier air will move in on Saturday and remain in place for a few days, but is not expected to reach the threshold for Red Flag criteria. .Hydrology... Current conditions across the region show above normal stream flows in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the Suwannee. Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola, Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida. Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight through the weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due to the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists for widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would suggest at least that the most impactful river flooding would be limited to areas already in flood. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through Saturday morning. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 79 68 75 48 74 / 100 100 60 0 0 Panama City 75 66 71 52 70 / 100 100 40 0 0 Dothan 74 61 71 46 71 / 100 80 20 0 0 Albany 76 63 72 45 71 / 100 100 30 0 0 Valdosta 80 68 74 47 73 / 100 100 80 0 0 Cross City 82 72 78 49 76 / 40 90 80 10 0 Apalachicola 74 69 74 51 71 / 100 100 60 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph- Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...FIEUX LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY/CHANEY FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE MOIST SOUTH FLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE HELPED SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHED UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA 500 AM TO 700 AM. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET MOVING INTO THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE- BASED LI/S -2 TO -3. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WHICH ARE MOVING EAST...AS UPPER ENERGY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WILL CONCENTRATE DETAIL ON THE NEAR TERM. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH BREEZY CONDTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 Upper shortwave trof passing over the forecast area in these overnight hours, bumping up the winds as it comes through and bringing showers just north of the area. Secondary push seen in WV imagery to the northwest of this trof, forecast to move into our area this afternoon. For today, expecting highs to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday as weak cold advection moves through. Soundings suggest enough mixing in the boundary layer by early afternoon with the incoming wave to generate a few showers over the northeastern counties and have added some slight chances there. Highs still forecast to reach into the low 50s north with middle 50s south. Relative humidities drop into the 25-30% range, and couples with afternoon winds around 20 mph, making for high to very high fire danger for several hours this afternoon. Overnight lows will be impacted by clear skies and cooler airmass, but countered by a potential light west wind. Current forecast is for lows near freezing, but with dewpoints in the 20s think a farther drop is possible. Could have impacts on outdoor sensitive vegetation. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 Expect a warming trend this weekend as the mid-level trough exits further to the east. With northwesterly flow aloft still prevailing into Saturday, it will keep temperatures seasonal in the low/mid 60s despite the abundant sunshine. By Sunday, surface low pressure will be diving southward into the Northern Plains and High Plains, resulting in winds shifting to the southwest and causing a decent pressure gradient to set up over the area. These southwest winds gusting upwards of 25-30mph along with mostly sunny skies will support decent warm-air advection with highs expected to soar into the mid/upper 70s. Models show some drier air moving into the region ahead of the advancing surface low, resulting in afternoon relative humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20 percent range. As a result, elevated fire danger concerns are expected for Sunday afternoon. The surface low and associated cold front will track eastward across the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning, however do not expect anything more than a slight temperature cool-down from this frontal passage with Monday highs dropping a few degrees into the mid 60s to low 70s. A mid-level ridge will advance into the central U.S. Monday night into Tuesday with the next mid-level trough located over the northern Rockies. Models show this trough deepening as it advances into the central U.S., which will help to push a cold front through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. While there is modest lift with this frontal passage, there is some uncertainty with regards to the amount of available moisture to help produce scattered precipitation. Due to the limited moisture, only have slight to low-end chance PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder. While temperatures will warm up a bit on Tuesday with southerly winds boosting afternoon highs into the low/mid 70s, the frontal passage will cool temperatures slightly with highs dropping into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday as the region remains under northwesterly flow aloft. Low temperatures this upcoming week will remain above freezing and generally in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 VFR conditions are likely through the TAF with a very small potential for brief MVFR between 09Z-13Z at TOP/FOE. Winds will be predominantly from the west to northwest, and expect occasional gusts prior to sunrise and then frequent gusts through the day. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Barjenbruch
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 222 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...updated short and long term sections... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Fairly quiet weather is expected during the short term domain. An upper level longwave trough will continue to move away from the region. At the sfc, high pressure will prevail. Think some limited mid level moisture will work its way down in the northwest flow aloft today. However, lower sfc dewpoints will also advect in. The net result, is a dry forecast. The 4 km NAM shows some sprinkles, but the other models like the ARW are dry. Again, think some clouds will prevail, but seriously doubt anything more than this. Otherwise, highs today will be in the 50s. As with the previously mentioned lower dewpoints, have opted for a cooler solution for lows tonight given the dry atmosphere and a good night for radiational cooling - upper 20s to just around freezing. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Downslope flow will continue through the weekend. By Sunday, ideal downslope southwesterly flow develops with 850-hPa temperatures creeping back to the teens. As a result, will see moderating temperatures through the weekend with 60s Friday and balmy upper 70s by Sunday. I don`t think we will see elevated or near critical fire weather conditions Saturday, however, Sunday is the day to watch and active fire weather behavior is possible. Relative humidities should fall low enough, however, winds may be more on the marginal side. Something to watch and be cognizant of. Lows will moderate through the weekend as well even with the dry atmosphere prevailing. For next week, slightly cooler highs are possible Monday as a backdoor cold front moves in from the northeast. Tuesday is still looking very warm with some 80s possible. A good downslope, compressional adiabatic warming day. Active fire weather behavior is possible once again on Tuesday. There may be enough lift along a cold front for isolated showers and possibly thunderstorms. Boundary layer moisture is not that impressive on the ECMWF with this system, so the slight superblend pops in the east look fine for now. We will see a decrease in highs once again by midweek in the post-frontal air mass. The overall synoptic pattern with a Rex block upstream is not conducive to any significant precipitation through the end of the business week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 VFR conditions expected through TAF pd with some high level clouds, but no operational impacts. Winds will be NW/N starting 8-12 kt early this morning, increasing 15-25 kt by late morning, then back down to 5-10 kt by evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 56 30 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 55 28 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 55 28 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 57 28 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 53 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 P28 58 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1207 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...updated aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon. Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers). For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward, however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF- ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850- 700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 50s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Much of southwest Kansas is now in official drought conditions (D1/Moderate Drought) per US Drought Monitor...primarily along and south of the Arkansas River. The forecast period through mid next week looks dry. The hemispheric jet stream pattern will be split across North America through the period -- the main polar jet will reside across southern Canada/northern CONUS as will the storm track. The southern jet stream will be less active with a closed low expected to form well off the southern California Coast. As long as we continue to see a fairly fast, northern jet stream, we will not see any precipitation (or at least meaningful precipitation) across western Kansas. A trough will develop across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region early next week, and we should see a backdoor cold front Monday. This would be a brief shot of cooler air which will likely be followed be another lee trough Tuesday ahead of the next synoptic storm system ripping across the Rockies (most likely over us or to our north). The Tuesday system would be coming out into the plains amidst a depleted moisture source to our south given such a strong cold front penetration over the weekend. On the whole, temperatures will continue to be above average with highs well into the 70s and lower 80s ahead of fronts (Sunday and Tuesday) with upper 60s to lower 70s behind fronts. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 VFR conditions expected through TAF pd with some high level clouds, but no operational impacts. Winds will be NW/N starting 8-12 kt early this morning, increasing 15-25 kt by late morning, then back down to 5-10 kt by evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 29 57 30 68 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 26 56 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 30 56 30 66 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 29 58 29 68 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 29 55 31 66 / 20 0 0 0 P28 33 59 31 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND PUSHING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND I-75 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...IN VICINITY OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL TRENDS ARE AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO. CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR FORCING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD... DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY HOLDING AT ALL SITES...BUT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN COME TO AN END AROUND MID MORNING AS CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR CRITERIA AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COOL FRONT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME A TAD GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE MORE WINTERLIKE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS PAST EVENING...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY GRABBING AHOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND BY GAUGING SOME UPSTREAM RADAR DATA SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN THE GRIDS BY INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR DRIZZLE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL THEN YIELD A POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE MORNING. HRRR RUNS SHOW SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE EARLY CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES (BOTH DIRECT DCVA AND LEFT EXIT REGION ALBEIT FADING JET DYNAMICS) AND IS SHOWN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OVERALL...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO STRAY AWAY FROM LOWER CHANCE POPS. THE ONE INTERESTING ITEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IS CONTINGENT FIRST ON DEVELOPMENT AND SECOND ON VIGOR OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3000 FT AGL. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENING WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THE CHANCES OR AMOUNTS BUT MODELS DO SHOW A TRANSIENT AND VERY NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE...TIED TO ACTUAL MIDLEVEL FLOW DISCONTINUITY. DIFFERENTIAL ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG WITH A DEAD SPOT IN THE JET FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN THE LATTER HALF OF TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DYNAMIC AND DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO DESCEND UPON LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPIATION EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 18-00Z TIME WINDOW. THE OVERALL CONFIGURATION OF THE SHORTWAVE...UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION STRUCTURE...AND MAGINTUDE/TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS IMPRESSIVE AND SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH UVVS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE PROJECTED UVVS...DEPTH OF SATURATION TO THE TROPOPAUSE AT A LOW 17 KFT AGL...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 2-8 KFT AGL ALL POINT TO A TIME PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPATION RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME PTYPE QUESTIONS AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH LIQUID WOULD EAT INTO AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERWHELMING IDEA IS THAT PRECIPIATION RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH AND SFC DEWPOINTS/WET BULBS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN MANY IF NOT ALL AREAS. AS A RESULT...THE NARRATIVE FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IS ONE OF SNOW ACTIVTY THAT COULD CATCH MANY OFF GUARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS (INCLUDING A STRIPE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES)...TO POSSIBLY AN INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS DETROIT. MODELS REMAIN ADAMANT THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEST TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS (APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME AREAS) WILL BE 21-06Z. THE STRONGEST NW WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED ALONG THE W AND NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE REFELECTION...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 96. HOWEVER...THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL REFINEMENT TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING RIGHT INTO THE EVENT. MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES LEADING TO SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING. THE QUIET PERIOD WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE READY TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LESS ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE ABOUT THE FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE AND VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH SENSITIVITY TO EXACTLY WHERE IN THE COLUMN THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL FIRE ALONG WITH THE PIVOTING FRONTAL WAVE...THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SUNDAY EVENING EVENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SAGINAW VALLEY WOULD HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. && .MARINE... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF INCREASED WIND. THE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE RESULTANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES WITH ALREADY STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND THUS A PERIOD OF GALES IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH THE ADDED ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST...LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN TRENDS TOWARD IFR UPSTREAM. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLY EVEN SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS/. A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER IN THE MORNING AND THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT INVERSION BASES...LEADING TO STEADY RISING CEILING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR DTW...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF METRO THIS MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS HOLDING A LOW END MVFR CEILING DURING IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW THIS EVENING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363- 441>443-462>464. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......DRK AVIATION.....SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 .AVIATION... SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH THE ADDED ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST...LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN TRENDS TOWARD IFR UPSTREAM. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLY EVEN SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS/. A LITTLE DEEPER COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER IN THE MORNING AND THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT INVERSION BASES...LEADING TO STEADY RISING CEILING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR DTW...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF METRO THIS MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS HOLDING A LOW END MVFR CEILING DURING IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 955 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 UPDATE... THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST PART. REGIONAL RADAR DATA DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO SRN LAKE MI...ALONG A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS. CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS INTO SE MI OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH OVER SE MI WILL ALSO BE LACKING...ADDING LITTLE SUPPORT TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE LATE NIGHT FORECAST. SKIES HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS. A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION COURTESY OF SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW LOWER CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A NEED TO ADD DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FRI MORNING...SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO REFINE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 DISCUSSION... WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER, GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL. THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY NEARS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE... FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND. HYDROLOGY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....SC UPDATE.......SC DISCUSSION...JVC/RK MARINE.......DG HYDROLOGY....DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 413 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...Leighton
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 247 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region as west northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool Canadian airmass to the Ozarks. No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 101 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region as west northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool Canadian airmass to the Ozarks. No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Expect VFR conditions with SCT/BKN low/mid level clouds overnight. There could be a stray sprinkle here or there, but nothing that should change any flight categories or affect any flights. Winds will pick up to around 15 to 25 kts mid morning Friday morning, and might actually gust to around 30 kts with better mixing. Will stick with 16G22KT for now and adjust up in future forecasts if necessary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 45 59 38 59 / 10 10 5 0 Quincy 40 52 34 54 / 30 30 10 0 Columbia 40 56 35 60 / 10 10 5 0 Jefferson City 41 58 35 61 / 10 10 5 0 Salem 43 57 37 58 / 10 5 10 0 Farmington 42 61 35 61 / 10 5 5 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 257 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...Dry Weather with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns through this Weekend... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1250 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 40 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 30 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 50 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Most of the showers were moving into southwest IL this evening with just a little patchy light rain elsewhere. Thunderstorms across parts of southwest MO are expected to weaken late this evening, but will likely move northeastward into parts of central and southeast MO towards midnight or shortly thereafter. The latest HRRR model runs indicate that most of the showers/storms should shift southeast of our forecast area by about 10Z early Thursday morning. It appears that the severe potential has lessened for the rest of tonight, although could not rule out isolated, elevated convection containing heavy rainfall and hail. With plenty of cloud cover, south-southeasterly surface winds and relatively strong southwesterly low level winds, and high surface dew points should not see much of a nocturnal temperature drop with temperatures holding nearly steady. Low temperatures tonight will be about 20 degrees above normal for late March. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Swly flow continues to pump moisture nwd into the area this afternoon. This is expected to continue into at least the evening hours with precip dissipating overnight. However, is some uncertainty regarding how the precip will evolve tonight. Most mdl guidance suggests ongoing precip shifting nwd and ewd over the next few hours, leaving a lull earlier in the evening. While a lull is expected between the WAA precip and a line of storms that will push out ahead of the cdfnt later tonight, exactly where and when this occurs is more uncertain. Have kept PoPs tonight rather high due to ongoing and more stratiform precip between cells. The bulk of the precip shud exit ern portions of the CWA by sunrise Thurs. The cdfnt associated with this system is expected to be just W of the CWA at 12z Thurs. Mdls prog a leading s/w lifting nwd thru wrn and nrn portions of the CWA around sunrise. This may allow for some sunrise surprise storms before lifting out of the area. This shud leave the remainder of the morning dry as the cdfnt continues to push ewd. Because of the slower timing of the cdfnt, have raised temps a fair amount in some areas compared to the prev forecast. Given that parts of KS still climbed into the mid 70s today behind the fnt, the going forecast for parts of cntl and into nern MO may be too cool. However, with more question of cloud cover, esp further N, trended a little cooler, but still twd the warmest guidance. This will also allow for TSRA to develop along the fnt as it pushes sewd thru the area. Expect TSRA to develop along the fnt during the early, to perhaps mid, afternoon mainly over the ern portions of the CWA. However, am a little concerned that mdls are pushing the fnt thru the area too quickly and have pulled PoPs wwd during the day to account for this. While TSRA may develop across nrn portions of the CWA or just N, develop shud continue swwd along the fnt as the upper trof helps cool temps aloft and the cap erodes. Given forecast parameters, expect supercells to develop along the fnt. While all severe threats will be possible, believe large hail will initially be the primary threat until the storms reach far ern portions of the CWA where low level shear is greater posing a greater tornado threat. However, there is some uncertainty regarding coverage as mdls are currently suggesting much of the cap eroding during the day. While storms may be discrete, there may not be much space between them later in the afternoon. .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Main changes to the forecast thru the rest of this week was to lower PoPs on Fri. Mdls keep much of the precip N of the area as the upper trof rotates thru. Did not completely remove PoPs during the afternoon as some SHRA activity is possible. Will need to watch temps for Fri night with guidance showing close to the freezing mark. However, with continued mixing expected overnight, winds may remain strong enuf to prevent frost from forming. For the weekend and beyond, not a lot of changes made from the prev forecast. More roller coaster temps expected with a rather strong cdfnt bringing a low chance for precip on Mon. This fnt will bring much cooler air into the area, and yet another possible freeze/frost event with light winds expected as the sfc ridge builds into the area. Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet another chance for precip. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
508 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT PREVIOUS FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SAT NIGHT-MON AND AGAIN TUE-WED. SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT IN LIKELY RANGE FOR SAT MORNING...DROPPING TO CHC IN AFTN THEN DRY FOR SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING AFTN...FOLLOWED BY DRY SECONDARY FRONT SAT NIGHT ASSCTD WITH UPR TROF PASSAGE. LATEST GDNC INDICATES STRONG TO SVR TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR SAT AS WDPSRD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SAT MORNING...AND FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AFTN WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS GFS/NAM MOS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED TEMP RISES DURING DAY AND KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 70...WHILE EC MOS IS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST BLEND OF LOW-MID 70S. DRY AND COOLER SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOW-MID 40S. SUN-MON...CAA WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING...THEN ABATE SUN AFTN AS SFC HIGH RIDGES ACROSS AREA FROM W. HIGH WILL BE OVER AREA SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MON AS CLIPPER SHRT WV APPROACHES FROM NW. BELOW NORMAL SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60 SUNDAY...REBOUNDING TO LOWER 70S MONDAY EXCEPT 60S OBX. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN 40S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND BOTH HAVE FRONT OFF COAST BY 12Z TUE. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS IN 20-30% RANGE FOR MAINLY MON NIGHT. INCREASING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S FOR TUE. QUITE COLD TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING FROST THREAT. GFS EXTENDED MOS IS COLDER WITH SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL NC WED MORNING AND INDICATES LOWS INTO UPR 20S FOR COASTAL PLAINS. EC IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH SFC HIGH FARTHER N...BUT STILL INDICATES LOWER 30S PSBL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS TO 33-37 MOST INLAND SECTIONS AND LOWER 40S OBX. HIGH PRES MOVING OFF COAST WED AFTN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO LOWER 60S INLAND. THURSDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US WITH RESULTANT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TAPPING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRED MVFR CIGS ACROSS RTES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS RTES AFTER 12Z THROUGH MID-DAY AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. PRED VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOVES TO THE EAST BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG DYNAMICS COULD ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STRONG SW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY SAT MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS INDICATE GENERALLY SSE WINDS 15-25 KT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 4-7 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH TODAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NWPS INITIALIZE A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ROUGH AND UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD. STRONG SCA TO POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS (MAINLY IN GUSTS) FROM THE SSW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 7 TO 10 FEET INTO SAT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS SAT IF GALE FORCE WINDS MATERIALIZE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW 15 TO 25 KT. WINDS TO FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SUN NIGHT AND MON LOOK LIKE THE BEST TIMES DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...THOUGH SW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY MON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID-WEST SUNDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY...PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/SK MARINE...JBM/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
323 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...IS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 3 CORRIDOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITHIN THIS AREA CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO COVER AND HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT. FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS AT JAMESTOWN NEAR/AROUND 06Z SATURDAY...WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH FROM CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT RACING FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WHICH IS DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTS IN 25 TO 30 PERCENT AS THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST PUSH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 06Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 30KT-35KT BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z SATURDAY WILL ENSUE FROM THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM AND NOTORIOUS STRONGER GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25KT TO 30KT AND AROUND 40KT-45KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 06-12Z SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN H85 COLD POCKET WEDGES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED BEHIND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER AN EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PER GFS/ECMWF. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SHOWALTER INDICES OF -2C AND 500 J/KG CAPE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR ALL COINCIDE DURING THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WHICH BLENDS IN WITH GRAND FORKS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING. MVFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR BY 11Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OF BETWEEN 20KT AND 35KT FROM 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1135 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AND LOCAL RADAR SHOW A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES LINED UP NEAR/ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM MINOT SOUTH TO BISMARCK...AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO FORT YATES. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES PER WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...NOW THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WHICH OUTLINES THE ABOVE. THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSSHORT CONTINUE TO PUSH AND END THE PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH THAT TREND WHICH IS REPRESENTING THE CURRENT SCENARIO WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE RAP...HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR ALL APPEAR TO BE ASSIMILATING EVENING RADAR TRENDS ACCURATELY AND WITH A SUPPORTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE BACK- GROUND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST QG FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THEY ALL SUGGEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL ND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WE THUS UTILIZED A TIME-LAGGED CONSENSUS OF THAT GUIDANCE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 08 AND 12 UTC AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT DUE IN PART TO THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION... AS EVIDENCED BY ANOTHER SET OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN OLIVER COUNTY BETWEEN 0200 AND 0230 UTC. UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THIS UPDATE FOCUSED ON MINOR REFINEMENTS TO POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. THE BAND OF RAIN AND MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS FROM MINOT SOUTHWARD TO GARRISON AND ELGIN AT 23 UTC IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...IT WAS OUTPACING THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A BIT. INTERESTINGLY...THERE WERE A FEW...MAINLY IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST ND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NONE HAVE BEEN DETECTED SINCE 2140 UTC AND THE WEAK SBCAPE SHOWN BY THE SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER THAT REGION IS WANING. THUS...WE REFRAINED FROM ADDING ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 FOLLOWING TWO FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TRACKING RATHER QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS PRODUCED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SO FAR TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY EVENING. A SECOND FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...WAS KICKING UP SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL TRACK THIS AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE HRRR POP TRENDS... BUT HAD TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS ITS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN THE HRRR TIME LAG ENSEMBLE. FOR THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY AROUND 55 MPH WERE SEEN AT HETTINGER. WINDS NOW FALLING TO THE MID 30S FOR GUSTS AND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. ON FRIDAY...THE PRECIP WILL END BY SUNRISE. WILL STILL HAVE A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH FRIDAY 40 TO 50. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH JUST A SMALL HINT OF CAPE ON THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A MENTION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...DO NOT SEE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH.. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KBIS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH 10Z FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR BY 11Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20KT AND 35KT BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 06Z SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1105 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 A CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...MUCH OF IT WINTRY. THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A STG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE ARND 100W. THE WRN RIDGE IS NEAR ITS PEAK FOR THIS AMPLIFICATION CYCLE. SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW WL FOLLOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS A COLD AND FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPLY A NEARLY CONTINUOUS FEED OF CANADIAN AIR MASSES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVES RIDING SE IN THE UPPER FLOW WL BRING A SERIES OF PCPN PRODUCING CYCLONES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THAT KEEP AMNTS IN CHECK...WITH NR NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED OSHKOSH TO GREEN BAY. MEANWHILE...RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO HAVE TAKEN PLACE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXIT NORTHEAST WI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THESE FEATURES IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND ALSO CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP AND CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER DOOR COUNTY. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...MODELS ARE QUITE QUICK IN BRINGING IN CLEARING BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING AND NORTH WINDS...HAVE A HARD TIME ENVISIONING IT HAPPENING THIS QUICKLY. THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS ARE THE BEST BETS...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY SUNRISE. FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS PROJECT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE IN RELATIVELY SHORT SUPPLY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI BEFORE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL SHOW UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE FORECAST. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 TIMING OF PCPN CHCS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALLS ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS AFTN. THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE YDA HAS BEEN TO DIG THE SPEED MAX/SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CYCLONE TRACKING ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT FARTHER S. THAT OPENS THE DOOR TO GETTING A LITTLE MORE SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT THE NE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. IT ALSO CUTS DOWN A LITTLE ON THE WIND POTENTIAL...AS THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STG WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT THROUGH TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA. SATURDAY WL STILL BE A WINDY DAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AOA 40 MPH NOW LOOKS LOWER THAN IT DID YDA. THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WL ARRIVE /AND EXIT/ A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. TRACK OF SYSTEM IS A LITTLE FARTHER N...AND COULD CUT ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM- UP OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS PACIFIC AIR IN THE WARM SECETOR OF THE CYCLONE BRIEFLY SHIFTS THROUGH. THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGER SLOWER MOVG CYCLONE THAT REACHES THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC TO DRAW AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA AS IT APPROACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL STILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLDS AROUND WITH SOME SCT MVFR CIGS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 15 UTC. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING VSBYS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 18 UTC. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
602 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .AVIATION... MVFR DECK AROUND 1-2KFT SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSED THROUGH ALLOWING ANOTHER POP OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL HELP WARM THE LOW LEVELS...AIDED BY DIURNAL FORCING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP MIX OUT THE INVERSION AND LIFT CIGS BACK ABOVE 4KFT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS EVEN SCOUR OUT ALL THE CLOUDS BELOW 10KFT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 00-06Z TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. FOR DTW...ONLY A FEW IFR OBSERVATIONS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME THUS CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MVFR WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING RAIN AND/OR SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL SHIFT TO AROUND 290 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 DISCUSSION... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE MORE WINTERLIKE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS PAST EVENING...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY GRABBING AHOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND BY GAUGING SOME UPSTREAM RADAR DATA SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN THE GRIDS BY INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR DRIZZLE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL THEN YIELD A POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE MORNING. HRRR RUNS SHOW SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE EARLY CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES (BOTH DIRECT DCVA AND LEFT EXIT REGION ALBEIT FADING JET DYNAMICS) AND IS SHOWN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OVERALL...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO STRAY AWAY FROM LOWER CHANCE POPS. THE ONE INTERESTING ITEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IS CONTINGENT FIRST ON DEVELOPMENT AND SECOND ON VIGOR OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3000 FT AGL. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENING WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THE CHANCES OR AMOUNTS BUT MODELS DO SHOW A TRANSIENT AND VERY NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE...TIED TO ACTUAL MIDLEVEL FLOW DISCONTINUITY. DIFFERENTIAL ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG WITH A DEAD SPOT IN THE JET FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN THE LATTER HALF OF TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DYNAMIC AND DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO DESCEND UPON LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPIATION EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 18-00Z TIME WINDOW. THE OVERALL CONFIGURATION OF THE SHORTWAVE...UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION STRUCTURE...AND MAGINTUDE/TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS IMPRESSIVE AND SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH UVVS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE PROJECTED UVVS...DEPTH OF SATURATION TO THE TROPOPAUSE AT A LOW 17 KFT AGL...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 2-8 KFT AGL ALL POINT TO A TIME PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPATION RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME PTYPE QUESTIONS AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH LIQUID WOULD EAT INTO AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERWHELMING IDEA IS THAT PRECIPIATION RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH AND SFC DEWPOINTS/WET BULBS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN MANY IF NOT ALL AREAS. AS A RESULT...THE NARRATIVE FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IS ONE OF SNOW ACTIVTY THAT COULD CATCH MANY OFF GUARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS (INCLUDING A STRIPE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES)...TO POSSIBLY AN INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS DETROIT. MODELS REMAIN ADAMANT THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEST TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS (APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME AREAS) WILL BE 21-06Z. THE STRONGEST NW WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED ALONG THE W AND NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE REFELECTION...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 96. HOWEVER...THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL REFINEMENT TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING RIGHT INTO THE EVENT. MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES LEADING TO SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING. THE QUIET PERIOD WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE READY TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LESS ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE ABOUT THE FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE AND VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH SENSITIVITY TO EXACTLY WHERE IN THE COLUMN THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL FIRE ALONG WITH THE PIVOTING FRONTAL WAVE...THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SUNDAY EVENING EVENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SAGINAW VALLEY WOULD HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MARINE... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF INCREASED WIND. THE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE RESULTANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES WITH ALREADY STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND THUS A PERIOD OF GALES IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363- 441>443-462>464. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 736 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. The initial batch of clouds at TAF issuance was VFR however upstream obs and satellite imagery suggest a period of MVFR cigs during the day. There is a chance of rain at KUIN however the expected coverage was too low to include in the TAF attm. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. Although MVFR clouds were noted upstream, it is expected that diurnal mixing will raise cloud bases to VFR before they reach the St. Louis metro area terminals. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 736 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. The initial batch of clouds at TAF issuance was VFR however upstream obs and satellite imagery suggest a period of MVFR cigs during the day. There is a chance of rain at KUIN however the expected coverage was too low to include in the TAF attm. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. Although MVFR clouds were noted upstream, it is expected that diurnal mixing will raise cloud bases to VFR before they reach the St. Louis metro area terminals. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 610 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MVFR ceilings have been making their way into the terminal areas this morning. The cloud deck is expected to rise after sunrise but isn`t expected to completely clear out as a disturbance crosses the region. Northwesterly winds have already picked up and will become gusty throughout much of the day, weakening after sunset tonight. Look for the clouds to also dissipate later tonight. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 610 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MVFR ceilings have been making their way into the terminal areas this morning. The cloud deck is expected to rise after sunrise but isn`t expected to completely clear out as a disturbance crosses the region. Northwesterly winds have already picked up and will become gusty throughout much of the day, weakening after sunset tonight. Look for the clouds to also dissipate later tonight. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...lg
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Northwest winds will be moderately strong through the day today, before decreasing tonight. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Northwest winds will be moderately strong through the day today, before decreasing tonight. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 413 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 247 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region as west northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool Canadian airmass to the Ozarks. No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 101 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region as west northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool Canadian airmass to the Ozarks. No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Expect VFR conditions with SCT/BKN low/mid level clouds overnight. There could be a stray sprinkle here or there, but nothing that should change any flight categories or affect any flights. Winds will pick up to around 15 to 25 kts mid morning Friday morning, and might actually gust to around 30 kts with better mixing. Will stick with 16G22KT for now and adjust up in future forecasts if necessary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 45 59 38 59 / 10 10 5 0 Quincy 40 52 34 54 / 30 30 10 0 Columbia 40 56 35 60 / 10 10 5 0 Jefferson City 41 58 35 61 / 10 10 5 0 Salem 43 57 37 58 / 10 5 10 0 Farmington 42 61 35 61 / 10 5 5 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 257 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...Dry Weather with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns through this Weekend... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1250 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 40 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 30 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 50 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Most of the showers were moving into southwest IL this evening with just a little patchy light rain elsewhere. Thunderstorms across parts of southwest MO are expected to weaken late this evening, but will likely move northeastward into parts of central and southeast MO towards midnight or shortly thereafter. The latest HRRR model runs indicate that most of the showers/storms should shift southeast of our forecast area by about 10Z early Thursday morning. It appears that the severe potential has lessened for the rest of tonight, although could not rule out isolated, elevated convection containing heavy rainfall and hail. With plenty of cloud cover, south-southeasterly surface winds and relatively strong southwesterly low level winds, and high surface dew points should not see much of a nocturnal temperature drop with temperatures holding nearly steady. Low temperatures tonight will be about 20 degrees above normal for late March. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Swly flow continues to pump moisture nwd into the area this afternoon. This is expected to continue into at least the evening hours with precip dissipating overnight. However, is some uncertainty regarding how the precip will evolve tonight. Most mdl guidance suggests ongoing precip shifting nwd and ewd over the next few hours, leaving a lull earlier in the evening. While a lull is expected between the WAA precip and a line of storms that will push out ahead of the cdfnt later tonight, exactly where and when this occurs is more uncertain. Have kept PoPs tonight rather high due to ongoing and more stratiform precip between cells. The bulk of the precip shud exit ern portions of the CWA by sunrise Thurs. The cdfnt associated with this system is expected to be just W of the CWA at 12z Thurs. Mdls prog a leading s/w lifting nwd thru wrn and nrn portions of the CWA around sunrise. This may allow for some sunrise surprise storms before lifting out of the area. This shud leave the remainder of the morning dry as the cdfnt continues to push ewd. Because of the slower timing of the cdfnt, have raised temps a fair amount in some areas compared to the prev forecast. Given that parts of KS still climbed into the mid 70s today behind the fnt, the going forecast for parts of cntl and into nern MO may be too cool. However, with more question of cloud cover, esp further N, trended a little cooler, but still twd the warmest guidance. This will also allow for TSRA to develop along the fnt as it pushes sewd thru the area. Expect TSRA to develop along the fnt during the early, to perhaps mid, afternoon mainly over the ern portions of the CWA. However, am a little concerned that mdls are pushing the fnt thru the area too quickly and have pulled PoPs wwd during the day to account for this. While TSRA may develop across nrn portions of the CWA or just N, develop shud continue swwd along the fnt as the upper trof helps cool temps aloft and the cap erodes. Given forecast parameters, expect supercells to develop along the fnt. While all severe threats will be possible, believe large hail will initially be the primary threat until the storms reach far ern portions of the CWA where low level shear is greater posing a greater tornado threat. However, there is some uncertainty regarding coverage as mdls are currently suggesting much of the cap eroding during the day. While storms may be discrete, there may not be much space between them later in the afternoon. .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Main changes to the forecast thru the rest of this week was to lower PoPs on Fri. Mdls keep much of the precip N of the area as the upper trof rotates thru. Did not completely remove PoPs during the afternoon as some SHRA activity is possible. Will need to watch temps for Fri night with guidance showing close to the freezing mark. However, with continued mixing expected overnight, winds may remain strong enuf to prevent frost from forming. For the weekend and beyond, not a lot of changes made from the prev forecast. More roller coaster temps expected with a rather strong cdfnt bringing a low chance for precip on Mon. This fnt will bring much cooler air into the area, and yet another possible freeze/frost event with light winds expected as the sfc ridge builds into the area. Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet another chance for precip. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1016 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... PRETTY LARGE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE WINDY AND WARM TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THAT FRONT. VERY GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MID-WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NEAR THE REGION LATE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1008 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO BLENDED IT`S OUTPUT INTO THE FORECAST. AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THUS FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING. AS IT PROGRESSES EAST, IT WILL TAP INTO A LITTLE BIT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN VERMONT. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOES SOME SURFACE CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG FROM THE RUTLAND AREA SOUTH. 12Z ALBANY SOUNDING INDICATES THAT WE WILL NEED SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOWER 70S TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING. GIVEN ALL OF THAT, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY T-STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. EVEN THEN THE CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW AS PRETTY THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESTRICT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH MORE. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, THEY ARE TRICKY. THINK BTV HAS ALREADY REACHED OUR HIGH OF 66F. AS RAIN MOVES IN, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF. THEN WE`LL HAVE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY, THOUGH IT`S NOT A SUBSTANTIAL ONE. FOLDED IN SOME RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES FROM THE HI-RES MODELS TO TRY TO CAPTURE ALL THE VARIABILITY. IN GENERAL, 50S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR HIGHS, TO LOWER 70S DOWN IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 431 AM EDT FRIDAY...ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD FRONT AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PROVIDING LIFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CHANGES COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THUS IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 431 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND EXPECTING ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR TODAY IN RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER FROPA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...VFR WITH MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO GUST OVER 40KT. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS/DEAL NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1058 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE DOWNEAST CARTERET TO CENTRAL OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS LINE AS SEVERAL WXFLOW SITES HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT OR STRONGER WITH THIS LINE AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN HOW THE LINE IS TRAINING OVER HATTERAS TO RODANTHE. MORE RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT IS MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE. MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS RAIN NEAR CAPE FEAR, WHERE THE SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS FOR ADJUSTING HOURLY WX ELEMENTS AND TWEAKING POPS TO COINCIDE WITH RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT PREVIOUS FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SAT NIGHT-MON AND AGAIN TUE-WED. SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT IN LIKELY RANGE FOR SAT MORNING...DROPPING TO CHC IN AFTN THEN DRY FOR SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING AFTN...FOLLOWED BY DRY SECONDARY FRONT SAT NIGHT ASSCTD WITH UPR TROF PASSAGE. LATEST GDNC INDICATES STRONG TO SVR TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR SAT AS WDPSRD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SAT MORNING...AND FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AFTN WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS GFS/NAM MOS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED TEMP RISES DURING DAY AND KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 70...WHILE EC MOS IS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST BLEND OF LOW-MID 70S. DRY AND COOLER SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOW-MID 40S. SUN-MON...CAA WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING...THEN ABATE SUN AFTN AS SFC HIGH RIDGES ACROSS AREA FROM W. HIGH WILL BE OVER AREA SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MON AS CLIPPER SHRT WV APPROACHES FROM NW. BELOW NORMAL SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60 SUNDAY...REBOUNDING TO LOWER 70S MONDAY EXCEPT 60S OBX. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN 40S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND BOTH HAVE FRONT OFF COAST BY 12Z TUE. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS IN 20-30% RANGE FOR MAINLY MON NIGHT. INCREASING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S FOR TUE. QUITE COLD TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING FROST THREAT. GFS EXTENDED MOS IS COLDER WITH SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL NC WED MORNING AND INDICATES LOWS INTO UPR 20S FOR COASTAL PLAINS. EC IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH SFC HIGH FARTHER N...BUT STILL INDICATES LOWER 30S PSBL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS TO 33-37 MOST INLAND SECTIONS AND LOWER 40S OBX. HIGH PRES MOVING OFF COAST WED AFTN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO LOWER 60S INLAND. THURSDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US WITH RESULTANT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TAPPING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRED MVFR CIGS CONTINUES ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS RTES AFTER 12Z THROUGH MID-DAY AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. PRED VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOVES TO THE EAST BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG DYNAMICS COULD ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STRONG SW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY SAT MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 KT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OFF OREGON INLET. MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. SEAS CONTINUE 4-7 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH TODAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ROUGH AND UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD. STRONG SCA TO POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS (MAINLY IN GUSTS) FROM THE SSW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 7 TO 10 FEET INTO SAT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS SAT IF GALE FORCE WINDS MATERIALIZE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW 15 TO 25 KT. WINDS TO FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SUN NIGHT AND MON LOOK LIKE THE BEST TIMES DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...THOUGH SW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY MON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID-WEST SUNDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY...PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK NEAR TERM...SK/DAG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/SK MARINE...JBM/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY OREGON INLET SW ACROSS HAVELOCK TO SWANSBORO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOC WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. UPDATE MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TWEAK TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT PREVIOUS FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SAT NIGHT-MON AND AGAIN TUE-WED. SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT IN LIKELY RANGE FOR SAT MORNING...DROPPING TO CHC IN AFTN THEN DRY FOR SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING AFTN...FOLLOWED BY DRY SECONDARY FRONT SAT NIGHT ASSCTD WITH UPR TROF PASSAGE. LATEST GDNC INDICATES STRONG TO SVR TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR SAT AS WDPSRD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SAT MORNING...AND FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AFTN WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS GFS/NAM MOS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED TEMP RISES DURING DAY AND KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 70...WHILE EC MOS IS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST BLEND OF LOW-MID 70S. DRY AND COOLER SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOW-MID 40S. SUN-MON...CAA WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING...THEN ABATE SUN AFTN AS SFC HIGH RIDGES ACROSS AREA FROM W. HIGH WILL BE OVER AREA SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MON AS CLIPPER SHRT WV APPROACHES FROM NW. BELOW NORMAL SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60 SUNDAY...REBOUNDING TO LOWER 70S MONDAY EXCEPT 60S OBX. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN 40S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND BOTH HAVE FRONT OFF COAST BY 12Z TUE. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS IN 20-30% RANGE FOR MAINLY MON NIGHT. INCREASING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S FOR TUE. QUITE COLD TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING FROST THREAT. GFS EXTENDED MOS IS COLDER WITH SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL NC WED MORNING AND INDICATES LOWS INTO UPR 20S FOR COASTAL PLAINS. EC IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH SFC HIGH FARTHER N...BUT STILL INDICATES LOWER 30S PSBL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS TO 33-37 MOST INLAND SECTIONS AND LOWER 40S OBX. HIGH PRES MOVING OFF COAST WED AFTN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO LOWER 60S INLAND. THURSDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US WITH RESULTANT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TAPPING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRED MVFR CIGS CONTINUES ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS RTES AFTER 12Z THROUGH MID-DAY AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. PRED VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOVES TO THE EAST BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG DYNAMICS COULD ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STRONG SW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY SAT MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. LATEST OBS INDICATE GENERALLY SSE WINDS 15-25 KT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 4-7 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH TODAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NWPS INITIALIZE A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ROUGH AND UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD. STRONG SCA TO POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS (MAINLY IN GUSTS) FROM THE SSW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 7 TO 10 FEET INTO SAT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS SAT IF GALE FORCE WINDS MATERIALIZE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW 15 TO 25 KT. WINDS TO FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SUN NIGHT AND MON LOOK LIKE THE BEST TIMES DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...THOUGH SW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY MON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID-WEST SUNDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY...PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/SK MARINE...JBM/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
852 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 13 UTC. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00 UTC THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD CHANCES FOR MORNING SNOW NORTH AND EAST A BIT AS SNOW HAS BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...IS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 3 CORRIDOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITHIN THIS AREA CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO COVER AND HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT. FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS AT JAMESTOWN NEAR/AROUND 06Z SATURDAY...WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH FROM CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT RACING FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WHICH IS DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTS IN 25 TO 30 PERCENT AS THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST PUSH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 06Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 30KT-35KT BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z SATURDAY WILL ENSUE FROM THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM AND NOTORIOUS STRONGER GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25KT TO 30KT AND AROUND 40KT-45KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 06-12Z SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN H85 COLD POCKET WEDGES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED BEHIND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER AN EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PER GFS/ECMWF. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SHOWALTER INDICES OF -2C AND 500 J/KG CAPE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR ALL COINCIDE DURING THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WHICH BLENDS IN WITH GRAND FORKS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID DAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD CHANCES FOR MORNING SNOW NORTH AND EAST A BIT AS SNOW HAS BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...IS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 3 CORRIDOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITHIN THIS AREA CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO COVER AND HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT. FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS AT JAMESTOWN NEAR/AROUND 06Z SATURDAY...WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH FROM CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT RACING FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WHICH IS DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTS IN 25 TO 30 PERCENT AS THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST PUSH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 06Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 30KT-35KT BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z SATURDAY WILL ENSUE FROM THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM AND NOTORIOUS STRONGER GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25KT TO 30KT AND AROUND 40KT-45KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 06-12Z SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN H85 COLD POCKET WEDGES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED BEHIND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER AN EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PER GFS/ECMWF. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SHOWALTER INDICES OF -2C AND 500 J/KG CAPE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR ALL COINCIDE DURING THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WHICH BLENDS IN WITH GRAND FORKS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH LCL IFR VIS IN -SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID DAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE ALLEGHENIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW EARLY APRIL CLIMATE NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A VERY MILD START TO APRIL 2016 WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE L50S TO M60S...OR +20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG SW LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO CENTRAL PA ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS/MSTR FLUX ANOMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING E FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 09Z RADAR TRENDS ARE FOLLOWING PREVIOUS THINKING IN A SW-NE ORIENTED PCPN AXIS FILLING-IN ACROSS THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN AXIS THRU 18-21Z BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA. THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ESCAPE PCPN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH HIGHER PROBS FOR SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE MRGL/ISOLD SVR TSTM RISK TO THE E OF THE US15/I78 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS SLOWING TREND TO CFROPA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID THE HRRR LOOKS DISORGANIZED WITH A MORE COHERENT SIGNAL PERHAPS EVIDENT IN THE WRF-ARW/NMM. FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED A TIGHTER NW-SE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE 12-21 UTC TIME WINDOW. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE FAR NW AND SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER NW PA. MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES RAIN TO THE E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR ALONG SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 00Z NAM AND TO LESSER EXTENT 21Z SREF SHOW MORE QPF FURTHER TO THE WEST /VS. CONSENSUS/ OVER SCENTRAL/SERN PA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS AND ONLY MENTION SCHC RAIN OVER THE FAR SE. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK COLD ENOUGH IN THE NW MTNS TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TNGT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLC BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -2.5 TO -3SD MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD FROM SRN LWR MI ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING A SWATH OF EARLY SPRING SNOW ACCUM OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS/POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 4 INCHES PROJECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. WHILE THE HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY APRIL USUALLY IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUM...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MAX QPF IS AT NIGHT WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE VS. DURING THE DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE SNOW IS THE WIND...WITH PEAK GUSTS LIKELY MEETING ADVISORY LEVELS. STRONG CAA WILL TEAM WITH PRES RISES TO PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE. WILL HIGHLIGHT BOTH IMPACT WEATHER RISKS/THREATS IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SNOW ACCUM AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SECOND CLIPPER SFC LOW QUICKLY ENTERS THE PICTURE DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STREAKING EWD FROM THE OH VLY ACROSS CENTRAL PA SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. ANOTHER STRIPE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN FAVORABLE FGEN ZONE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA FOR ACCUMULATION FOCUSED AGAIN OVER NORTHERN PA. TIMING OF MAX QPF WITH THE 2ND WAVE IS LESS FAVORABLE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD LOOKS QUIET HAS THE HIGH MIGRATES OVER PA AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WED NGT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN AT LONG RANGES SO CONFIDENCE IN PCPN ON THURSDAY IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM ON TUESDAY WITH -10 TO -20 DEGREE DEPARTURES FROM THE MEAN BEFORE MODERATING SOME INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... --SHRA FELL APART AS THEY MOVED THROUGH BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO BFD SHORTLY. EARLIER TS OVER OH HAS DIED BUT SHRA CONTINUE. WILL KEEP TS OUT FM BFD TAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHRA MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG LLJET IS CAUSING LLWS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 45KT JUST 1500 TO 2000 FT ALOFT. MAGNITUDE OF THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST IN SHRA...AS 36KT GUST AT KCAK INDICATES. OTHERWISE WINDS MAY SLACKEN AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES. THE LLJET DOES DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SLIDES TO THE EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHRA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 07-09Z AT MOST SITES - PUSHING THRU RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. TSRA LATE FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN IN THE SERN TERMINALS MAY BE STRONG/GUSTY WITH A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THERE. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND VFR IN THE WRN/CENT TERMINALS. BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREATE SHRA AND COULD BRING BACK FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THE COLD AIR WILL BE INTRODUCED IN A FEW WAVES...GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT EVENING AND NIGHT. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR STEADY SNOW FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AXIS OF THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH ON SAT NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SHSN MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. OUTLOOK... SAT...RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IFR POSS AM...THEN IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUBSEQUENT DETERIORATION. SAT PM...MVFR/IFR POSS IN SN NW HALF. GUSTY NW WINDS AREA WIDE. SUN...BLUSTERY. MVFR CIGS AREA WIDE. IFR CIGS/SHSN POSS NW. SUN PM-MON...CHC OF RAIN/SNOW...ESP NORTHERN PA. MON PM-TUE...GUSTY N WINDS/LOW CIGS PSBL. IMPROVING LATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
950 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION...MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS FOR TODAY AND THE MARINE ZONES. HRRR IS SHOWING A TREND OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE GULF WATERS AS THE GRADIENT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTH. BUILD SEAS A BIT MORE FASTER AS THE WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA IS IN EFFECT EARLIER TODAY OVER THE GULF BUT FOR THE LAGUNA KEPT ADVISORY THE SAME AS DO NOT EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH HAS PUSHED GRADUALLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLD DECKS FILLING IN OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING UP. THIS MEANS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDMORNING. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO PLACE THE VSBYS AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND SOUTH TX PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR LRD EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST UP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF CONV HAVE STARTED FIRING UP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED. THE NEXT QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THE CONV BE TODAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRETTY HEALTHY CAPE VALUES >3000 J/KG. HOWEVER THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING EVIDENT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. ALSO THE EARLY TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE RGV WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE LOCAL INSTABILITY. THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAPE VALUES WILL BE STEADILY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY INCREASING THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. ALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS FOR THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE IN COMPARISON TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THIS TREND. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL BE STARTING UP LATER TODAY AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES...THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO WARM UP THE AFTERNOON HIGHS PRETTY WELL. AFTER TODAY HOWEVER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND THE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING CAA. THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT WITH THE MET NUMBERS SHOWING A COOL BIAS. SINCE THE MET IS THE OUTLIER WILL GO CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS THROUGH TOMORROW. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AIR BECOMING DOMINANT. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS IN PLACE HIGH PRESSURE MODIFIES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BACK IN PLACE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ON. OVERALL IT WILL BE A SLOW WEATHER WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY THEN THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE WEST...SO THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE CWA EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASE AND A WIND SHIFT TO EAST ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY. MARINE... TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE OBS AND BUOY DATA NEAR THE COASTLINE THIS MORNING SHOWS PRETTY CALM WINDS AND SEAS AS THE PGF RELAXES A BIT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE MARINE AREAS LATER TODAY. AS THE PGF PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXPECT THE MARINE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE REACHING SCA LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY. THE STRONG POST FROPA PGF WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. THE PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SAT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE TX COASTLINE. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SAT NIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA HOWEVER...SO THE FEW DAYS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK WILL PROMISE BETTER CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. NOT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WILL SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. EVEN SO...THE RESULT WILL BE ONLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 67/55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AS FRONT IS COMING DOWN AND WINDS ARE INCREASING. THINK MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS AND IN THE GULFMEX...SO LOWERED POPS A BIT. HRRR WAS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES THROUGH A PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. IN SHORT...MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS (SURFACE AND SATELLITE) AS WELL AS MODEL TRENDS. MADE SOME SECOND PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS TOO...WILL LEAVE THE REMAINING PERIODS ALONE FOR NOW. && .MARINE...WILL PUT SCA OUT A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AS WINDS OVER MARINE INTERESTS ARE GUSTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS RIGHT NOW AND NO REASON TO THINK THAT THEY WILL DECREASE. WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING TOO...AS NEW NAM IS SHOWING GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN SOME AREAS (RUC13 WAS SHOWING EARLIER AS WELL). ADJUSTED POPS DOWN JUST A BIT BUT DID KEEP THUNDER ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT AS MUCH WITH UPPER SYSTEM EXITING AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION. MARINE...BASED ON UPCOMING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FORECAST 4 KM MODEL WINDS...WILL GO WITH A SCA FOR THE MARINE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW...AS WILL LOOK AT THAT A BIT CLOSELY. PREVIOUS LOOK AT HRRR DATA HAD SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A LOT AS HAVE SEEN THE HRRR OVER-DO THINGS LIKE THIS AT TIMES (SOMETIMES DOES WELL TOO). THUS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR NOW...AND LOOK BETTER AT IT FOR THE 1030 AM PACKAGE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION. AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AND COULD IMPACT THE VCT TERMINAL...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAFS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT CRP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS BECAME STRONG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S AROUND LAREDO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO CAA AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. MARINE...AREAS OF FOG...WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN AREAS...HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE MARINE ZONES. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY OBS AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE COAST. PUT OUT A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS. NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN BAYS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST...LOW 80S EAST. FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. TIMING NOT TOO FAR OFF BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF THIS MORNING WITH THE GFS ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER...WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AS WE SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BUILD UP SOME MOISTURE BY THEN WITH ONSHORE FLOW HAVING RETURNED ON MONDAY. WITH CURRENT FRONT TIMING...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 53 73 54 76 / 20 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 73 48 72 48 76 / 30 10 0 0 0 LAREDO 80 53 74 52 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 ALICE 77 49 74 50 79 / 10 10 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 74 53 72 57 74 / 30 10 0 0 0 COTULLA 74 48 74 48 79 / 10 10 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 77 51 73 51 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 73 56 72 58 74 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
755 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION. && .MARINE...BASED ON UPCOMING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FORECAST 4 KM MODEL WINDS...WILL GO WITH A SCA FOR THE MARINE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW...AS WILL LOOK AT THAT A BIT CLOSELY. PREVIOUS LOOK AT HRRR DATA HAD SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A LOT AS HAVE SEEN THE HRRR OVER-DO THINGS LIKE THIS AT TIMES (SOMETIMES DOES WELL TOO). THUS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR NOW...AND LOOK BETTER AT IT FOR THE 1030 AM PACKAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION. AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AND COULD IMPACT THE VCT TERMINAL...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAFS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT CRP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS BECAME STRONG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S AROUND LAREDO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO CAA AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. MARINE...AREAS OF FOG...WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN AREAS...HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE MARINE ZONES. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY OBS AND WEBCAMS ALONG THE COAST. PUT OUT A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS. NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN BAYS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST...LOW 80S EAST. FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. TIMING NOT TOO FAR OFF BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF THIS MORNING WITH THE GFS ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER...WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AS WE SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BUILD UP SOME MOISTURE BY THEN WITH ONSHORE FLOW HAVING RETURNED ON MONDAY. WITH CURRENT FRONT TIMING...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 78 53 73 54 76 / 30 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 71 48 72 48 76 / 50 10 0 0 0 LAREDO 82 53 74 52 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 ALICE 79 49 74 50 79 / 20 10 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 73 53 72 57 74 / 40 10 0 0 0 COTULLA 75 48 74 48 79 / 10 10 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 80 51 73 51 78 / 20 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 74 56 72 58 74 / 30 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1037 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR/RAP COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EWD FROM NRN IL WITH SECONDARY TROUGH/SFC/850 FRONT HEADING SEWD FROM WC INTO NC NE WI. BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS SRN WI. AT THIS TIME RAP SOUNDINGS AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AS THIS MOVES THROUGH SRN WI THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING. 850 COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A TIME THIS EVE. LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD BRIEFLY BEFORE NEXT MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM TAKES AIM. SFC LOW PROGGD FROM NRN WI ERLY SAT TO LWR MI BY 18Z SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS LEFT BEHIND BY THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SO FROZEN PRECIP TYPE LOOKS GOOD. HIGHEST QPF WILL BE IN THE NE CWA SO THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THERE LOOK GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES. OTHER STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER IOWA...AND CLEARLY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. SO THE PRECIP ACROSS IOWA SHOULD GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT MAY JUST CLIP AREAS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. OUR MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING IN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT IS RATHER STRONG WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH VERY SKINNY CAPE TO JUSTIFY AN ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS. NOTHING SEVERE. MOISTURE DOES SEEM TO CONNECT RATHER DEEPLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ALONG THE FRONT...SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH FROPA. PRECIP DURATION SHOULD ONLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST. WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP CLEAR THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 2 PM WITH CLEARING REACHING MILWAUKEE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THINGS DRY OUT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER FAST APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DROP INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND THIS COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF MADISON AFTER ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A SHORTWAVE AND TIGHTLY WOUND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TEMPERATURE SETUP FOR THE DAY. ONLY THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL MAINLY LESS THAN ONE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...EXPECTING PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN SNOW. SHOULD BE SOME WET BULB COOLING AS THE SNOW FALLS TO HELP KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. LOOKS LIKE A STRATIFORM TYPE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON PER PRETTY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE THE SNOW GIVEN THE FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS...THE TIME OF THE YEAR...AND THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...DID GO WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND LESS AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY DECIDE WHAT SURFACES THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON. THE OTHER CONCERN ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH THE LAST DAY OR TWO...SO LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF NOTHING CHANGES...LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTH. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINLY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE WAVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE WARM UPS AHEAD OF THE WAVES...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THEM. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH EACH WAVE...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...LIFTING CONDITIONS TO THE VFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND MOISTURE LINGERS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...AND THIS COULD TAKE THINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AT KUES/KMSN. SO...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY/VARIABILITY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS COULD REACH KMSN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND KMKE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE TAF SITES. TOTAL ACCUMS WOULD BE AT AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHER TO THE NORTH. MARINE... STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST MN TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING GALE FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PRE/PROCEED THE PERIOD OF GALES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY AND RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN SONORA BY THIS EVENING. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER MY FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS A RESULT...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH ACROSS THE RIM AND EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED INTO PORTIONS OF GREENLEE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THE CURRENT SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL...SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN TOP POPS ELSEWHERE. BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH JUST ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO REMAIN AND THIS SHOULD HAPPEN EVEN EARLIER THAN MIDNIGHT. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DIVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA WILL POTENTIALLY BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. MOS POP NUMBERS SHOW A 24-HR POP OF 25% FOR THE GFS THURSDAY AND 36% FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS 3% FOR THURSDAY AND 15% FOR FRIDAY. THAT SAID....WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE NOT BEING VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO JUST USE A BLEND. SO...SLIGHT CHANCES AREA-WIDE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWERS START TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH SATURDAY IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE). FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY... THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THEREAFTER...LOWS 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE WARMEST MORNING. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES OF 9-11K FT AGL. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 02/03Z AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN-DRIVEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL CARRY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TOMORROW WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY TERRAIN-DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES ON TUESDAY. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MOLLERE AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CARLAW VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
919 AM MST FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 01/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY AND RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN SONORA BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE ONE MORE DAY OF A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE POP FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED. AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 50 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 44 DEGS. THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BUT WILL MONITOR. FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z. ISOLATED -SHRA PSBL EAST OF KTUS TODAY. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 10K-15K FT MSL WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS THRU FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR DEVELOPING SHOWERS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH A FEW HIGHER WLY/NWLY AFTERNOON GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON... ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED HUMIDITY VALUES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 25 MPH WILL OCCUR. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THAT LAST RESIDUAL OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN TODAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL THEN PHASE IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 5 TO 7 DEGREES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A SOUTHERN SPLIT OF ENERGY IS TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE TO RESOLVE SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO EITHER UNDER- CUT THE RIDGE OR RIDE INTO THE BACK SIDE AS IT PHASES EAST. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WON`T MAKE IT UNDER THE RIDGE AND THUS WILL COME IN A LITTLE SLOWER. STAY TUNED. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WITH A MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH VERY WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 147 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL- NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. IT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SRN VT...THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ERN CATSKILLS. ONE PEA- SIZE HAIL REPORT CAME IN FROM CHARLESTON...MONTGOMERY COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE FCST AREA WITH A RING OF SBCAPE/MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL MARGINAL AT 5.5-6C/KM. DESPITE THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ROGUE ISOLD SVR THREAT. BRIEF BURSTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL START FALLING OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS HAVE OCCURRED WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BUT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND THIS FRONT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 70F ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CHANGEABLE...AND ACTIVE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...ESP EARLY TONIGHT. MINS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY. THIS NEARBY WAVE MAY ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WELL...AND THIS FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN HOURS ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP LOOKS BRIEF AND FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT COULD SUGGEST SOME GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 40S/50S FOR SATURDAY /WHICH IS NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY/S TEMPS/ AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER IS HEADED OUR WAY BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL CRASH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND FALL TO -3 TO -9 DEGREES C BY LATE SAT EVENING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SFC WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SOME INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. ALTHOUGH PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BE RAINFALL IN VALLEY AREAS DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...THEY SHOULD COOL QUICKLY...AND A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 03Z SREF...WOULD SUGGEST 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LIFT/INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACE DUE TO RECENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AND VERY WINDY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MIXING DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -20 DEGREES C/ AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING SFC WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WINDY DAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO STATEMENT. NW WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 35-55 MPH POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT THE COLD TEMPS/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE WINTRY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THE WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH FOR SUN NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL START TO RETURN AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER STORM STARTS TO HEAD TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT /TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY/...ESP FOR WESTERN AREAS. MINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST 01/00Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE DELAWARE COASTLINE. A DIGGING TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP STEER THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE...A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST THERMAL GRADIENT SET UP OVER OUR AREA COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE FGEN SETUP OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD RESULT IN A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT OVER A SHORT DISTANCE. THIS 925-850 HPA THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION BEING NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. RESULTS DO DIFFER IN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL DATA OF THE EXACT SETUP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACKING LOW PRESSURE AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...H850 AND H925 TEMPERATURES OVERALL REMAIN WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FROM THE SFC TO 925 HPA HOWEVER MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY UP THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FROM THE LATEST MODEL DATA WITH THIS LATE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE GOING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT ARE STILL FORECASTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELO0W AVERAGE. LATEST 01/00Z DATA SHOWS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO OUR REGION PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO KALB AND KPOU. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR UNDER THE CORE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR VSBYS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AT KPOU...AND POSSIBLY KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-15Z/SAT. MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR WHERE THE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES...AT 10-20 KT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AT 5-10 KT OR LESS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...SN. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32.0 CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO ABOUT 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE TODAY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO THE W-SW AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. RH VALUES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT ON SAT AFTN...AND SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG ON SUNDAY FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND NORMAL FLOW CONDITIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. ALL AREAS LOOK TO SEE PRECIP CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW FOR SAT NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SOME MINOR RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
320 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 320 PM CDT A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EACH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A PARTICULARLY STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF HIGH END NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AS A FEW GALES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER...A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES THE LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH-NORTHEASTER 25 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
232 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
231 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
220 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 220 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15UTC SATURDAY THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS. A VERY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEING DRIVEN BY A 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR EVENING CHANGING TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL POSSIBLY OVER NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. OF MORE CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY HIGH WIND GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 55 MPH RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES AROUND 10 MB/6HR OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO CREATE UNSEASONABLE COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM NUMBER TWO QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK STILL LOOKS TO PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAYS WINDS. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO GO TO FAR NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO GET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BRING US A DAY OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN ONSET AS A RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIX AT THIS RANGE IS STILL LOW. FINALLY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THAT MORE COLD WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023- ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
155 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT SERVING AS A MORE ENHANCED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL TROUGH...AROUND -31C AT 500MB...WHICH IS IN THE LOWEST TWO PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL IN LOCAL RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE VALUES...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHICAGO MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT ON RAP AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SO WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL (ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF SUCH EARLIER FROM BENTON COUNTY). ALSO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE FORECAST. MTF && .LONG TERM... 335 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT RIDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...EXPECT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING FROM THE DAKOTAS EARLY ON SUNDAY TO NEAR DBQ SUNDAY EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TO THE REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WINDS. STRONG H85 WINDS TO AROUND 60 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE H85 TEMPS TO 7-10C BY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE WARM AIR BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM ADVERTISING TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER IT PANS OUT...THE WARM-UP WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED WITH AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 0.75 INCHES DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODELS DO TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF SUNDAY NIGHT. THINKING MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING QPF A BIT SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET ALBEIT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON MONDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY. OUR ROLLER COASTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS YET ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE AT THIS DISTANCE THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. BMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE: - SHRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA AND BRIEF SMALL HAIL. - WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO OR OVER 40 KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO RE-INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD AXIS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 20Z THAT SHIFTS OVER THE CHICAGO AREA WITHIN 21Z-01Z. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE ISOLATED DEEPER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID MORNING. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING THE GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 KT. MTF && .MARINE... 328 AM CDT MAIN MARINE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE THEN EXPANDING NORTH AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALES QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FIRST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPANDING NORTH TO COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALES TO 45 KT FOR THE SOUTH HALF LOOK FAVORABLE...AND TO 40 KT FOR THE NORTH HALF. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS RELAXING AND BECOMING WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779...10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
133 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .AVIATION... BKN MVFR DECK WILL BECOME SCT IN GENERAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MID DECK AROUND 10KFT THICKENING. WEST WINDS WILL BACK TO SW WITH JUST A WAGGLE BACK TO THE WSW LATE EVENING AS WEAK WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH AREA. MVFR CIGS MAY VERY WELL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS WELL. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN COLLAPSE ON THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH CIGS BECOMING DEFINITIVELY MVFR AND AN AREA OF SNOW/RAIN OVERSPREADING AREA...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW MOST LIKELY GIVEN DEGREE OF COLD AIR SHIFTING INTO THE AREA. FOR DTW...REMAINING MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT 20Z-00Z WITH BKN TO OVC 10KFT DECK DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BACK TO SW...BUT VEER CLOSER TO 250-270 DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH. PERIOD OF POWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW WILL THEN OVERSPREAD AREA 18Z SATURDAY AS CLIPPER LOW MOVES INTO AREA. WHILE WINDS WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST...GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FROM A GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION MAY IMPACT RUNWAY CONFIGURATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...LOW TONIGHT...HIGH BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. * MEDIUM IN WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS FROM 260-290 DEGREES BY 21Z-00Z SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 DISCUSSION... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE MORE WINTERLIKE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS PAST EVENING...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY GRABBING AHOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND BY GAUGING SOME UPSTREAM RADAR DATA SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. ACCOUNTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN THE GRIDS BY INCLUDING A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR DRIZZLE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL THEN YIELD A POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE MORNING. HRRR RUNS SHOW SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE EARLY CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES (BOTH DIRECT DCVA AND LEFT EXIT REGION ALBEIT FADING JET DYNAMICS) AND IS SHOWN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OVERALL...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO STRAY AWAY FROM LOWER CHANCE POPS. THE ONE INTERESTING ITEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IS CONTINGENT FIRST ON DEVELOPMENT AND SECOND ON VIGOR OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3000 FT AGL. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENING WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THE CHANCES OR AMOUNTS BUT MODELS DO SHOW A TRANSIENT AND VERY NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE...TIED TO ACTUAL MIDLEVEL FLOW DISCONTINUITY. DIFFERENTIAL ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG WITH A DEAD SPOT IN THE JET FORCING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD OF LOWER MICHIGAN THE LATTER HALF OF TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DYNAMIC AND DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO DESCEND UPON LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPIATION EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 18-00Z TIME WINDOW. THE OVERALL CONFIGURATION OF THE SHORTWAVE...UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION STRUCTURE...AND MAGINTUDE/TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS IMPRESSIVE AND SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH UVVS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE PROJECTED UVVS...DEPTH OF SATURATION TO THE TROPOPAUSE AT A LOW 17 KFT AGL...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 2-8 KFT AGL ALL POINT TO A TIME PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPATION RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME PTYPE QUESTIONS AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH LIQUID WOULD EAT INTO AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERWHELMING IDEA IS THAT PRECIPIATION RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH AND SFC DEWPOINTS/WET BULBS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN MANY IF NOT ALL AREAS. AS A RESULT...THE NARRATIVE FOR THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IS ONE OF SNOW ACTIVTY THAT COULD CATCH MANY OFF GUARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS (INCLUDING A STRIPE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES)...TO POSSIBLY AN INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS DETROIT. MODELS REMAIN ADAMANT THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEST TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS (APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME AREAS) WILL BE 21-06Z. THE STRONGEST NW WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED ALONG THE W AND NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE REFELECTION...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 96. HOWEVER...THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL REFINEMENT TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING RIGHT INTO THE EVENT. MUCH OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES LEADING TO SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING. THE QUIET PERIOD WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE READY TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LESS ABOUT THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE ABOUT THE FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE AND VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH SENSITIVITY TO EXACTLY WHERE IN THE COLUMN THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL FIRE ALONG WITH THE PIVOTING FRONTAL WAVE...THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SUNDAY EVENING EVENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE TIGHT MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE REGION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SAGINAW VALLEY WOULD HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. MARINE... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF INCREASED WIND. THE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE RESULTANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES WITH ALREADY STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND THUS A PERIOD OF GALES IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ361>363- 441>443-462>464. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....DG DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Another shortwave is moving through the Midwest and producing scattered showers across much of northern down across parts of central Missouri and west central Illinois. Expect this shower activity to continue for the next several hours and weaken after 01- 02Z. The character of the clouds over the area and upstream across Iowa and Nebraska looks very diurnal, so I expect we`ll see some good clearing tonight. Temperatures should fall into the low and mid 30s so frost will be a concern...but primarily over central and southeast Missouri in more sheltered spots where it will be less windy. Have added in patchy frost in these areas. Think Saturday will be slightly warmer than today...particularly in central Missouri where wind will start out from the west southwest for the first 1/2 of the day ahead of another reinforcing cold front. Wind will be a potential issue as the pressure gradient tightens between the associated low over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the eastern Plains. Current thinking is that we may get close to wind advisory criteria across parts of northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Additionally, we should easily have low enough relative humidity and fuel moisture, as well as high enough wind for elevated fire danger across most of the northern portion of the CWFA. RH values are marginal for Red Flag criteria...so have held off issuing any special fire weather products for now. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Next Friday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Focus thru the weekend will be temps with no precip expected until Tues night. Not much change from the prev forecast with mdls still suggesting the sfc ridge building into the area Sat night. The ridge axis will quickly push thru the CWA, with winds turning sly by sunrise. This poses a bit of a forecast problem as these sly winds will help temps rise. Main question attm is if temps across ern portions of the CWA will drop enuf for a freeze headline. With a few uncertainties, will hold off on any headlines for now. Roller coaster temps continue thru the remainder of the forecast period. System on Tues night into Thurs still appears to be on track with the prev forecast and only minor changes were made. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Primarily VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to prevail across the area into this evening. Stubborn MVFR ceiling over central MO should be lifting over the next couple of hours...and short range guidance is also showing it should scatter out before 00Z this evening. Light rain showers over southeast Iowa could also affect parts of northeast MO and west central IL this afternoon as well...so VCSH in the UIN TAF still looks good. Expect all ceilings to scatter out after 00Z this evening with VFR continuing to prevail until 18Z Saturday. Gusty winds will pick back up late Saturday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions and gusty west-northwest flow will continue to prevail at Lambert. Should see ceilings scatter out late this afternoon or evening and wind will diminish. Another low pressure system will dive across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon. Looks like wind should be increasing again by mid morning ahead of the system, with gusts to around 30 in the afternoon. Carney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 37 59 39 70 / 20 0 0 0 Quincy 32 55 32 69 / 20 0 0 0 Columbia 33 59 36 72 / 20 0 0 0 Jefferson City 33 60 36 73 / 10 0 0 0 Salem 36 57 33 64 / 10 0 0 0 Farmington 35 60 34 68 / 5 0 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 331 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 Scattered showers, which developed early this afternoon under a passing upper trough and were fueled by ~100 J/kg CAPE, will continue through the next several hours until daytime heating and thus any surface based instability is lost. While the CAPE profile is very short and has allowed very limited vertical development, the freezing level is also quite low and has allowed small hail/sleet/ graupel to develop with these showers. While ice processes are clearly occurring in these showers and some instability is present, have not seen any lightning activity yet and opted not to add thunder into the grids as the potential looks fairly low due to the height of the showers. Skies will clear quickly as the upper trough departs and instability lessens this evening, allowing temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s throughout the region. Patchy frost looks possible, but with lows flirting with or just above the freezing mark, did not feel that a frost advisory was warranted at these temperatures. Winds will also increase a bit earlier than is diurnally expected, which may help prevent frost formation when temperatures are coldest. Another weak boundary will push through late tomorrow morning and increase winds again out of the northwest; however, sunshine and gradually increasing temperatures aloft should help highs rise into the 60s nearly CWA-wide, with the possible exception of northeast MO where midlevel temps will be the lowest and cold air advection the strongest. More zonal flow aloft and the low-level wind response to developing surface low pressure will help temperatures climb quickly on Sunday, resulting in the only late-spring-like day through the forecast period with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Fire weather will be a concern as temperatures climb and RHs fall into the 25 to 30 percent range -- and especially in combination with the breezy southwest winds -- so will have to keep an eye on eastern KS and far western MO where temperatures will be warmest. The cold front progged to pass through late Sunday night will knock temperatures down but should be too dry for precipitation; however, the Tuesday night - Wednesday cold front still appears to have a little better moisture return ahead of it and a slightly better- developed upper wave that may support precipitation. Have kept the mention of thunder in until the passage of the surface front, but it remains too early to tell if any strong/severe storms will be possible as far south as our CWA. Significantly cooler weather will definitely follow behind, but model discrepancies are high on just how long that cold air hangs around and whether or not it will impact the following weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 Broken cumulus with bases between 3-4 kft will continue to thicken across the region this afternoon, and may produce a few scattered rain showers after 19z. After sunset, cloud cover should quickly dissipate, leaving clear skies for the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds will decrease and back to the west tonight, then will increase and veer sharply back to the northwest by late Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 256 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 The main forecast concerns through Saturday are frost potential tonight and then fire weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will continue across the area through the period, with a weak shortwave dropping across the area this evening. This shortwave was producing some showers across northern Missouri, with some weak reflectivities now beginning to show up in central Missouri. Did add a slight chance for showers across our far northern counties this afternoon, but these are expected to diminish by early evening. Skies will then quickly clear for the remainder of the night. Surface high remains centered well west of the area which keeps a pressure gradient in tack over the Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Despite temperatures dropping into the lower 30s tonight, enough mixing of the low levels looks to keep any frost more patchy in nature and after coordination with surrounding offices will not be issuing any advisories tonight. On Saturday, dry airmass remains in place with the center of the high still off to the west of the area, but nudging closer. With westerly winds expected in the 10 to 15 mph range and humidities dropping into the 25 to 30 percent range confident we will see elevated fire weather conditions for a time Saturday afternoon. Windspeeds should drop off quickly Saturday evening as the center of the high then drifts across the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Surface high slides off to the east on Sunday with southerly winds overspreading the area. Temperatures will rebound quite nicely in the warm advection regime with highs back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Breezy southerly winds Sunday afternoon along with relative humidities again dropping into the 25 to 35 percent range will lead to elevated fire weather concerns once again. A frontal boundary will drop across the area on Monday, but dry atmosphere will preclude any clouds or precipitation with only a wind shift back to the northwest. Surface high then builds back into the region from the north on Monday night into Tuesday with a continuation of the dry weather. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Tuesday, but still at or slightly above normal. The next chance of rain will come Tuesday night and Wednesday as a stronger shortwave pushes eastward across the Plains driving a north/south oriented cold front through the region. Instability looks to be rather meager but still could be some thunder. System looks to be rather quick moving with the bulk of the precipitation exiting the area by Wednesday night. Somewhat cooler air will filter in behind it, but again quite seasonable for early April. Medium range models showing northwest flow once again for Thursday and Friday with high pressure at the surface, so quiet and seasonal weather expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shortwave trough will rotate across northern Missouri this afternoon and push east of the area this evening. TAF sites will be on the fringe of the system with just some lower end VFR ceilings possible from time to time through 00Z,especially at KSGF. Northwesterly winds in the 12 knot to 23 knot range will persist through 00Z then diminishes to less than 10 knots this evening. Clearing then expected this evening with VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. Stronger winds likely to begin to mix to the surface late Saturday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Raberding LONG TERM...Raberding AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 256 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 The main forecast concerns through Saturday are frost potential tonight and then fire weather concerns Saturday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft will continue across the area through the period, with a weak shortwave dropping across the area this evening. This shortwave was producing some showers across northern Missouri, with some weak reflectivities now beginning to show up in central Missouri. Did add a slight chance for showers across our far northern counties this afternoon, but these are expected to diminish by early evening. Skies will then quickly clear for the remainder of the night. Surface high remains centered well west of the area which keeps a pressure gradient in tack over the Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Despite temperatures dropping into the lower 30s tonight, enough mixing of the low levels looks to keep any frost more patchy in nature and after coordination with surrounding offices will not be issuing any advisories tonight. On Saturday, dry airmass remains in place with the center of the high still off to the west of the area, but nudging closer. With westerly winds expected in the 10 to 15 mph range and humidities dropping into the 25 to 30 percent range confident we will see elevated fire weather conditions for a time Saturday afternoon. Windspeeds should drop off quickly Saturday evening as the center of the high then drifts across the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Surface high slides off to the east on Sunday with southerly winds overspreading the area. Temperatures will rebound quite nicely in the warm advection regime with highs back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Breezy southerly winds Sunday afternoon along with relative humidities again dropping into the 25 to 35 percent range will lead to elevated fire weather concerns once again. A frontal boundary will drop across the area on Monday, but dry atmosphere will preclude any clouds or precipitation with only a wind shift back to the northwest. Surface high then builds back into the region from the north on Monday night into Tuesday with a continuation of the dry weather. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Tuesday, but still at or slightly above normal. The next chance of rain will come Tuesday night and Wednesday as a stronger shortwave pushes eastward across the Plains driving a north/south oriented cold front through the region. Instability looks to be rather meager but still could be some thunder. System looks to be rather quick moving with the bulk of the precipitation exiting the area by Wednesday night. Somewhat cooler air will filter in behind it, but again quite seasonable for early April. Medium range models showing northwest flow once again for Thursday and Friday with high pressure at the surface, so quiet and seasonal weather expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shortwave trough will rotate across northern Missouri this afternoon and push east of the area this evening. TAF sites will be on the fringe of the system with just some lower end VFR ceilings possible from time to time through 00Z,especially at KSGF. Northwesterly winds in the 12 knot to 23 knot range will persist through 00Z then diminishes to less than 10 knots this evening. Clearing then expected this evening with VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. Stronger winds likely to begin to mix to the surface late Saturday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Raberding LONG TERM...Raberding AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 Broken cumulus with bases between 3-4 kft will continue to thicken across the region this afternoon, and may produce a few scattered rain showers after 19z. After sunset, cloud cover should quickly dissipate, leaving clear skies for the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds will decrease and back to the west tonight, then will increase and veer sharply back to the northwest by late Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 Broken cumulus with bases between 3-4 kft will continue to thicken across the region this afternoon, and may produce a few scattered rain showers after 19z. After sunset, cloud cover should quickly dissipate, leaving clear skies for the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds will decrease and back to the west tonight, then will increase and veer sharply back to the northwest by late Saturday morning. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Primarily VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to prevail across the area into this evening. Stubborn MVFR ceiling over central MO should be lifting over the next couple of hours...and short range guidance is also showing it should scatter out before 00Z this evening. Light rain showers over southeast Iowa could also affect parts of northeast MO and west central IL this afternoon as well...so VCSH in the UIN TAF still looks good. Expect all ceilings to scatter out after 00Z this evening with VFR continuing to prevail until 18Z Saturday. Gusty winds will pick back up late Saturday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions and gusty west-northwest flow will continue to prevail at Lambert. Should see ceilings scatter out late this afternoon or evening and wind will diminish. Another low pressure system will dive across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon. Looks like wind should be increasing again by mid morning ahead of the system, with gusts to around 30 in the afternoon. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Primarily VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to prevail across the area into this evening. Stubborn MVFR ceiling over central MO should be lifting over the next couple of hours...and short range guidance is also showing it should scatter out before 00Z this evening. Light rain showers over southeast Iowa could also affect parts of northeast MO and west central IL this afternoon as well...so VCSH in the UIN TAF still looks good. Expect all ceilings to scatter out after 00Z this evening with VFR continuing to prevail until 18Z Saturday. Gusty winds will pick back up late Saturday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions and gusty west-northwest flow will continue to prevail at Lambert. Should see ceilings scatter out late this afternoon or evening and wind will diminish. Another low pressure system will dive across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley by Saturday afternoon. Looks like wind should be increasing again by mid morning ahead of the system, with gusts to around 30 in the afternoon. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shortwave trough will rotate across northern Missouri this afternoon and push east of the area this evening. TAF sites will be on the fringe of the system with just some lower end VFR ceilings possible from time to time through 00Z,especially at KSGF. Northwesterly winds in the 12 knot to 23 knot range will persist through 00Z then diminishes to less than 10 knots this evening. Clearing then expected this evening with VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. Stronger winds likely to begin to mix to the surface late Saturday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 736 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. The initial batch of clouds at TAF issuance was VFR however upstream obs and satellite imagery suggest a period of MVFR cigs during the day. There is a chance of rain at KUIN however the expected coverage was too low to include in the TAF attm. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. Although MVFR clouds were noted upstream, it is expected that diurnal mixing will raise cloud bases to VFR before they reach the St. Louis metro area terminals. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 736 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. The initial batch of clouds at TAF issuance was VFR however upstream obs and satellite imagery suggest a period of MVFR cigs during the day. There is a chance of rain at KUIN however the expected coverage was too low to include in the TAF attm. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A disturbance will bring increasing clouds to the region today. Although MVFR clouds were noted upstream, it is expected that diurnal mixing will raise cloud bases to VFR before they reach the St. Louis metro area terminals. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 610 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MVFR ceilings have been making their way into the terminal areas this morning. The cloud deck is expected to rise after sunrise but isn`t expected to completely clear out as a disturbance crosses the region. Northwesterly winds have already picked up and will become gusty throughout much of the day, weakening after sunset tonight. Look for the clouds to also dissipate later tonight. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 610 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MVFR ceilings have been making their way into the terminal areas this morning. The cloud deck is expected to rise after sunrise but isn`t expected to completely clear out as a disturbance crosses the region. Northwesterly winds have already picked up and will become gusty throughout much of the day, weakening after sunset tonight. Look for the clouds to also dissipate later tonight. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...lg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Northwest winds will be moderately strong through the day today, before decreasing tonight. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Northwest winds will be moderately strong through the day today, before decreasing tonight. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 413 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 The region is entering into a relatively quiet weather period with minimal precip chances on the immediate horizon. Some light precip, in the form of rain or a wintry mix has been observed in SE NE near the IA border, now approaching NE MO. As this cluster moves into an unfavorable environment for sustaining itself, the precip is anticipated to fall apart through this morning. Only have mentionable PoPs across the far northern portions of MO where a vort max and available moisture meet. Later today, upper-level trough axis rotates on through. Question will again be the amount of moisture available but model guidance is suggesting precip is possible throughout the day. Am carrying slight chance PoPs through this afternoon for much of the forecast area, tapering off by around sunset as the forcing mechanism heads east. Look for clearing skies tonight with temps dropping down into the lower to mid 30s. Northwesterly flow through the start of the weekend will become southerly late Saturday/early Sunday, dictating how the temps will respond. Highs Saturday will be near normal for early April, ranging from the 50s in NE MO to the 60s elsewhere. Warming trend is well- aligned with the shifting flow as overnight lows range from the 30s in NE MO to the 40s in eastern KS. Sunday`s highs will rebound rather nicely, reaching well into the 70s under mostly clear skies. Dry cool front will cross on through Sunday night, returning those temps back toward normal for Monday into Tuesday. Next mentionable precip chances arrive with a cold front that is currently forecast to track across Wednesday but it is still too far out to nail down specifics attm. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...lg AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Rain currently over Iowa is associated with shortwave trough seen in water vapor imagery that the NAM/GFS brings across northern Missouri and central Illinois this morning. This first trough will generate isolated showers across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois this morning. A second trough currently back over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast and will move across the middle Mississippi Valley this evening. This trough will bring scattered showers along and north of I-70 through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually spread across the area today which should keep highs slightly below normal. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Trough will move off to the east and skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall off into the middle 30`s. Parts of the eastern Ozarks may see the winds fall off enough tonight to have some patchy frost. Another upper trough will move through the Great Lakes on Saturday which will cause the attendant cold front to pass through Missouri and Illinois. Winds will be fairly brisk with the passage of the front. There is also very little moisture or ascent associated with this front, so will keep Saturday dry. Saturday night looks cold as the surface high moves quickly into the area. Lows will be in the low-mid 30`s with areas of frost over northeast Missouri as well as west central and south central Illinois. Sunday still looks like it will see a big warm-up as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Still expect highs to climb mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a upper trough deepening over the central CONUS during the middle of next week. Current dry forecast on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure moves across the area seems reasonable before ascent and moisture begins to increase over the area by Wednesday ahead of the upper trough. Rain will linger into Thursday as the upper trough passes through the area. Temperatures will warm up above normal ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before cooling below normal on Thursday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 247 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Deep northwest flow continues across the region this morning, with early morning temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s. Readings should bottom out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A couple of strong but moisture-starved shortwaves will rotate southeast through the Midwest and lower the Great Lakes today, with the second pushing another cold front through the area later this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover and an outside chance of a sprinkle or two over Central Missouri, little impact is expected from this frontal passage. Temperatures today will be in the 50s and low 60s, with the warmest temperatures over far south central Missouri. Lower RH and breezy northwest winds will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are then expected to fall to near freezing across much of the region. Patchy frost will be possible, especially in the more protected valleys. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2016 Temperatures on Saturday will recover a few degrees into the low to mid 60s, with continued breezy west winds. This will result in another day of elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, as afternoon relative humidity falls to between 25 and 30 percent over the area. Temperatures will then warmup considerably on Sunday, with low to mid 70s expected for most. Slightly cooler temperatures are then expected for Monday and Tuesday, as another dry frontal passage takes place. The next chance for precipitation is expected by next Wednesday, as a stronger front and upper level wave sweep across the area. Along with a decent chance for rain, this front should usher in another cool down by the end of next workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region as west northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool Canadian airmass to the Ozarks. No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 101 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region as west northwest breezes persist. These winds will also bring a cool Canadian airmass to the Ozarks. No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours with some low/mid level clouds rolling in early Friday morning, but departing by evening. Expect gusty winds out of the northwest through the day, then relaxing around sunset. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1147 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. At KUIN there could be some brief sprinkles overnight and the ceilings on Friday may be lower and in the MVFR flight category. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast period with a period of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Gusty westerly surface winds will commence around mid- morning Friday with the onset of mixing and then will diminish around sunset. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 913 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 An area of mainly light rain was moving eastward through IA ahead of a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This shortwave will drop southeastward into northeastern MO and southeastern IA by 12Z Friday. Looking at the latest model guidance and radar trends, it appears that most of the measurable rain may remain just north of our forecast area tonight, with mainly just sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. A band of low-mid level cloudiness will advect eastward through northeast and central MO and west central IL later this evening and overnight. There was a smaller area of cloudiness extending from PPQ southwest to FYG and SUS. This batch of cloudiness will gradually dissipate as it continues to move east-southeastward into southwest IL. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight due to low level cold air advection along with lowering surface dew points. The latest NAM model run dropped the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm southeastward to STL by 12Z Friday. Although lows tonight will be much colder than last night, they will be close to seasonal normals for early April. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Expect VFR conditions with SCT/BKN low/mid level clouds overnight. There could be a stray sprinkle here or there, but nothing that should change any flight categories or affect any flights. Winds will pick up to around 15 to 25 kts mid morning Friday morning, and might actually gust to around 30 kts with better mixing. Will stick with 16G22KT for now and adjust up in future forecasts if necessary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Leighton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 634 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: West-northwest surface winds should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. They will increase again and become gusty around mid-morning on Friday with the onset of mixing. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the period with several periods of higher-based cumulus tonight and then diurnal cu on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 623 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We are entering an extended period of dry weather. Therefore, no low ceilings or reduced visibilities are expected through tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, west to northwest breezes are expected as high pressure builds toward the Ozarks region. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois, and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows, highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period. Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon, before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop. This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the area. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 45 59 38 59 / 10 10 5 0 Quincy 40 52 34 54 / 30 30 10 0 Columbia 40 56 35 60 / 10 10 5 0 Jefferson City 41 58 35 61 / 10 10 5 0 Salem 43 57 37 58 / 10 5 10 0 Farmington 42 61 35 61 / 10 5 5 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 257 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...Dry Weather with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns through this Weekend... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are expected to stay above freezing. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty westerly to northwesterly winds. These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present the potential for a light freeze and light frost. A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather risk. A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage will occur Monday. The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough, but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon. Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri. Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild conditions around for any evening activities across the region. The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period; however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1250 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with VFR for now. Specifics for KSTL: Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail thereafter. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts during daylight hours both days. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will subside after sunset. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...12Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by afternoon. West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this evening. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500 j/kg over southern MO. Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am. Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection off to our east and southeast. A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot of colder/dry air into the area. It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and frost potential. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry, so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more shifts to look at this. Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at least some low probability rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern IL. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016 Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late tonight through Friday afternoon. Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before diminishing Saturday evening. Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before warming up some next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 40 10 10 5 Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 30 20 30 5 Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5 Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5 Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5 Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 50 10 10 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the extremely strong winds aloft. For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is actually normal anyway. Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress through the Spring vegetation emergence. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of a secondary cold front. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same locations. Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be somewhat delayed. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more northwesterly upper level flow. A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions on Thursday. Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin are not likely to receive this dense fog. Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through Thursday. Safe Travels. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Foster LONG TERM...Foster AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Most of the showers were moving into southwest IL this evening with just a little patchy light rain elsewhere. Thunderstorms across parts of southwest MO are expected to weaken late this evening, but will likely move northeastward into parts of central and southeast MO towards midnight or shortly thereafter. The latest HRRR model runs indicate that most of the showers/storms should shift southeast of our forecast area by about 10Z early Thursday morning. It appears that the severe potential has lessened for the rest of tonight, although could not rule out isolated, elevated convection containing heavy rainfall and hail. With plenty of cloud cover, south-southeasterly surface winds and relatively strong southwesterly low level winds, and high surface dew points should not see much of a nocturnal temperature drop with temperatures holding nearly steady. Low temperatures tonight will be about 20 degrees above normal for late March. GKS && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Swly flow continues to pump moisture nwd into the area this afternoon. This is expected to continue into at least the evening hours with precip dissipating overnight. However, is some uncertainty regarding how the precip will evolve tonight. Most mdl guidance suggests ongoing precip shifting nwd and ewd over the next few hours, leaving a lull earlier in the evening. While a lull is expected between the WAA precip and a line of storms that will push out ahead of the cdfnt later tonight, exactly where and when this occurs is more uncertain. Have kept PoPs tonight rather high due to ongoing and more stratiform precip between cells. The bulk of the precip shud exit ern portions of the CWA by sunrise Thurs. The cdfnt associated with this system is expected to be just W of the CWA at 12z Thurs. Mdls prog a leading s/w lifting nwd thru wrn and nrn portions of the CWA around sunrise. This may allow for some sunrise surprise storms before lifting out of the area. This shud leave the remainder of the morning dry as the cdfnt continues to push ewd. Because of the slower timing of the cdfnt, have raised temps a fair amount in some areas compared to the prev forecast. Given that parts of KS still climbed into the mid 70s today behind the fnt, the going forecast for parts of cntl and into nern MO may be too cool. However, with more question of cloud cover, esp further N, trended a little cooler, but still twd the warmest guidance. This will also allow for TSRA to develop along the fnt as it pushes sewd thru the area. Expect TSRA to develop along the fnt during the early, to perhaps mid, afternoon mainly over the ern portions of the CWA. However, am a little concerned that mdls are pushing the fnt thru the area too quickly and have pulled PoPs wwd during the day to account for this. While TSRA may develop across nrn portions of the CWA or just N, develop shud continue swwd along the fnt as the upper trof helps cool temps aloft and the cap erodes. Given forecast parameters, expect supercells to develop along the fnt. While all severe threats will be possible, believe large hail will initially be the primary threat until the storms reach far ern portions of the CWA where low level shear is greater posing a greater tornado threat. However, there is some uncertainty regarding coverage as mdls are currently suggesting much of the cap eroding during the day. While storms may be discrete, there may not be much space between them later in the afternoon. .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 Main changes to the forecast thru the rest of this week was to lower PoPs on Fri. Mdls keep much of the precip N of the area as the upper trof rotates thru. Did not completely remove PoPs during the afternoon as some SHRA activity is possible. Will need to watch temps for Fri night with guidance showing close to the freezing mark. However, with continued mixing expected overnight, winds may remain strong enuf to prevent frost from forming. For the weekend and beyond, not a lot of changes made from the prev forecast. More roller coaster temps expected with a rather strong cdfnt bringing a low chance for precip on Mon. This fnt will bring much cooler air into the area, and yet another possible freeze/frost event with light winds expected as the sfc ridge builds into the area. Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet another chance for precip. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016 The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the 07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to develop across the region and become more widespread overnight, lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Specifics for KSTL: The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period. Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST TO SOME AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NEAR DAYBREAK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE LIFTING NE TONIGHT. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BOUT OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. A LOW- LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT WILL MAINTAIN MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THUS...WILL INCLUDE 100 PERCENT POPS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS/PERSISTS. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND POOR LAPSE RATES. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STILL WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 KT...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND THICK CLOUDS IN CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S INMOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...LASTLY ALONG THE COAST. THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND IS OFFSHORE. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON INCREASING WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...SKIES WILL TREND TOWARD CLEAR WITH CLEARING LIKELY HOLDING OFF LONGEST AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DURING SUN AND CLEAR SKIES SUN NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SAT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON SUN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...AS WILL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR MIDWEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO ADD PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUE NIGHT- WED MORNING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TOWARDS 70 ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO A BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING FIREWORKS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SPORATIC STRIKES. PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS WELL MAY BE BRIEFLY IFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE CONVECTION TO THE COAST BY 04-05Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. SATURDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY....A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE W...VEERING TO NW. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO N DURING SUN AND NE SUN EVE BEFORE BECOMING ALMOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SUN...TRENDING TOWARD SE AND S. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL TREND LOWER IN OFFSHORE FLOW SUN...2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH 4-5 FOOT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM SHORE AS A RESULT OF 15-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
630 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION APPROACHING E NC FROM S CAROLINA. USED TOA TOOL TO DETERMINE ARRIVAL...WHICH APPEARS TO MOVE INTO SW ZONES BY AROUND 01Z AND WORK NORTH AND EASTWARD THEREAFTER. HAVE AN INC POP TREND THROUGH THE EVENING BECOMING CATEGORICAL ALL OF E NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AT PRESENT THOUGH WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND HT FALLS ALOFT OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY INCREASES SO RETAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...HIGH RES MODEL SUITE INDICATE A BACKING OF SFC WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT SO AN ISO TORNADO THREAT STILL LOOMS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 1.60 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NC, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SPC MESOANALYSES PWATS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. YESTERDAYS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUITE AND SOME GLOBAL MODELS PERFORMED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC COINCIDENT WITH SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER BATCH OVER GA/SC ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO MATCH TRENDS WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING WHICH YIELDED LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE THIS EVENING PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, BUT EXPECT SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NC FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z AND HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE. BETTER FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG VORTMAX OVER EASTERN NC AND MODEST DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JETSTREAK APPROACHING WESTERN ZONES LATE. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR OVERNIGHT, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 40 KT AT 06Z TO AROUND 70 KT BY 12Z WHILE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES DIMINISH TO AROUND 100-200 M2/S2 LATE. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT, LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN OFF THE OBX COAST BY 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH EASTERN NC BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MIDDAY AS PRECIP AND BEST FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. MODEL BLEND SUGGEST AN END TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z AND OFF THE COAST BY 21-00Z. COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING 1355-1370 METERS, YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PRODUCING RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING USHERING IN SOME RATHER COLD AIR FOR EARLY APRIL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH LOWS MID 30S INLAND TO MID 40S OUTER BANKS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE SPEED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV. LATER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND WITH IT A DROP INTO THE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR RANGE ESP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KT, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE 5-8 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ADJUSTED THE ENDING TIMES OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER TO BETTER CORRESPOND WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 25 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND ALSO BECAUSE DURATION BETWEEN CURRENT GUSTY SW WIND EVENT AND POST-FRONTAL NW SURGE IS GREATER THAN 12 HOURS. SCAS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY (SEE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST). NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LIGHT NW WINDS BACKS TO SW AND INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON TUESDAY. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG/TL SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/TL/SGK MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 1.60 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NC, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SPC MESOANALYSES PWATS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. YESTERDAYS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUITE AND SOME GLOBAL MODELS PERFORMED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC COINCIDENT WITH SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER BATCH OVER GA/SC ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO MATCH TRENDS WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING WHICH YIELDED LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE THIS EVENING PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, BUT EXPECT SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NC FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z AND HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE. BETTER FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG VORTMAX OVER EASTERN NC AND MODEST DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE JETSTREAK APPROACHING WESTERN ZONES LATE. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR OVERNIGHT, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 40 KT AT 06Z TO AROUND 70 KT BY 12Z WHILE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES DIMINISH TO AROUND 100-200 M2/S2 LATE. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT, LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN OFF THE OBX COAST BY 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH EASTERN NC BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MIDDAY AS PRECIP AND BEST FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. MODEL BLEND SUGGEST AN END TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z AND OFF THE COAST BY 21-00Z. COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING 1355-1370 METERS, YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PRODUCING RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING USHERING IN SOME RATHER COLD AIR FOR EARLY APRIL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH LOWS MID 30S INLAND TO MID 40S OUTER BANKS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE SPEED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS TOWARDS THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KT, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE 5-8 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ADJUSTED THE ENDING TIMES OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS/ALLIGATOR RIVER TO BETTER CORRESPOND WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 25 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND ALSO BECAUSE DURATION BETWEEN CURRENT GUSTY SW WIND EVENT AND POST-FRONTAL NW SURGE IS GREATER THAN 12 HOURS. SCAS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY (SEE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST). NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LIGHT NW WINDS BACKS TO SW AND INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON TUESDAY. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/SGK MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE DOWNEAST CARTERET TO CENTRAL OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS LINE AS SEVERAL WXFLOW SITES HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT OR STRONGER WITH THIS LINE AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN HOW THE LINE IS TRAINING OVER HATTERAS TO RODANTHE. MORE RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT IS MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE. MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS RAIN NEAR CAPE FEAR, WHERE THE SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS FOR ADJUSTING HOURLY WX ELEMENTS AND TWEAKING POPS TO COINCIDE WITH RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PRODUCING RAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WITH IT. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING USHERING IN SOME RATHER COLD AIR FOR EARLY APRIL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO SURROUNDING OFFICES...WITH LOWS MID 30S INLAND TO MID 40S OUTER BANKS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE SPEED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS TOWARDS THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 KT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OFF OREGON INLET. MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. SEAS CONTINUE 4-7 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH TODAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LIGHT NW WINDS BACKS TO SW AND INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON TUESDAY. AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/DAG/SGK MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
209 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1050 AM FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE DOWNEAST CARTERET TO CENTRAL OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE HOUR. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS LINE AS SEVERAL WXFLOW SITES HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT OR STRONGER WITH THIS LINE AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN HOW THE LINE IS TRAINING OVER HATTERAS TO RODANTHE. MORE RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT IS MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE. MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS RAIN NEAR CAPE FEAR, WHERE THE SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS FOR ADJUSTING HOURLY WX ELEMENTS AND TWEAKING POPS TO COINCIDE WITH RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS AND HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z. BETTER FORCING COMBINED WITH STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 COULD BRING A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BEST FORCING MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS. WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP BUT IT GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SRH AND INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SO WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IF THE INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER MID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT PREVIOUS FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SAT NIGHT-MON AND AGAIN TUE-WED. SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT IN LIKELY RANGE FOR SAT MORNING...DROPPING TO CHC IN AFTN THEN DRY FOR SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING AFTN...FOLLOWED BY DRY SECONDARY FRONT SAT NIGHT ASSCTD WITH UPR TROF PASSAGE. LATEST GDNC INDICATES STRONG TO SVR TSTM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR SAT AS WDPSRD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SAT MORNING...AND FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AFTN WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS GFS/NAM MOS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED TEMP RISES DURING DAY AND KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 70...WHILE EC MOS IS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST BLEND OF LOW-MID 70S. DRY AND COOLER SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOW-MID 40S. SUN-MON...CAA WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING...THEN ABATE SUN AFTN AS SFC HIGH RIDGES ACROSS AREA FROM W. HIGH WILL BE OVER AREA SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MON AS CLIPPER SHRT WV APPROACHES FROM NW. BELOW NORMAL SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60 SUNDAY...REBOUNDING TO LOWER 70S MONDAY EXCEPT 60S OBX. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN 40S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND BOTH HAVE FRONT OFF COAST BY 12Z TUE. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS IN 20-30% RANGE FOR MAINLY MON NIGHT. INCREASING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S FOR TUE. QUITE COLD TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING FROST THREAT. GFS EXTENDED MOS IS COLDER WITH SFC HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL NC WED MORNING AND INDICATES LOWS INTO UPR 20S FOR COASTAL PLAINS. EC IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH SFC HIGH FARTHER N...BUT STILL INDICATES LOWER 30S PSBL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS TO 33-37 MOST INLAND SECTIONS AND LOWER 40S OBX. HIGH PRES MOVING OFF COAST WED AFTN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO LOWER 60S INLAND. THURSDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US WITH RESULTANT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TAPPING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY/...AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE EWN AND PGV TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT THE 14/32 RUNWAY AT KEWN AND THE 15/33 RUNWAY AT KPGV. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MEANDERS TOWARDS THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE THAT WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY SAT MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SSW WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1055 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 KT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OFF OREGON INLET. MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. SEAS CONTINUE 4-7 FT NORTH TO 6-9 FT SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH TODAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-30 KT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NWPS INITIALIZED A LITTLE LOW AGAIN AND CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND WITH WAVEWATCH. CONTINUE SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ROUGH AND UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD. STRONG SCA TO POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS (MAINLY IN GUSTS) FROM THE SSW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 7 TO 10 FEET INTO SAT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS SAT IF GALE FORCE WINDS MATERIALIZE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW 15 TO 25 KT. WINDS TO FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SUN NIGHT AND MON LOOK LIKE THE BEST TIMES DURING THE FIVE DAY PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...THOUGH SW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY MON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID-WEST SUNDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY...PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/SK NEAR TERM...SK/DAG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/SGK MARINE...JBM/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 RAISED WINDS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON TO BLEND WITH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE MID CLOUD SHIELD MOVING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN. HOURLY TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 13 UTC. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00 UTC THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD CHANCES FOR MORNING SNOW NORTH AND EAST A BIT AS SNOW HAS BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...IS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 3 CORRIDOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITHIN THIS AREA CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO COVER AND HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT. FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS AT JAMESTOWN NEAR/AROUND 06Z SATURDAY...WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH FROM CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT RACING FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WHICH IS DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTS IN 25 TO 30 PERCENT AS THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST PUSH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 06Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 30KT-35KT BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z SATURDAY WILL ENSUE FROM THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM AND NOTORIOUS STRONGER GFS FOR THE WIND GRIDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25KT TO 30KT AND AROUND 40KT-45KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER FROM MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 06-12Z SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIATES SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN H85 COLD POCKET WEDGES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED BEHIND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY FOR A DRY AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER AN EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PER GFS/ECMWF. COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SHOWALTER INDICES OF -2C AND 500 J/KG CAPE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR ALL COINCIDE DURING THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WHICH BLENDS IN WITH GRAND FORKS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE MID CLOUD SHIELD MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AFT 00Z AND AT KJMS AFT 03Z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 1 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...FROPA IS MOVING ACROSS THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH...EXPECT NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW IFR CIGS STILL LINGERING AROUND KHRL AND KBRO BUT THIS WILL NOT BE FOR LONG AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OVC MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING BREAKING INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE NE WIND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ DISCUSSION...MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS FOR TODAY AND THE MARINE ZONES. HRRR IS SHOWING A TREND OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE GULF WATERS AS THE GRADIENT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTH. BUILD SEAS A BIT MORE FASTER AS THE WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA IS IN EFFECT EARLIER TODAY OVER THE GULF BUT FOR THE LAGUNA KEPT ADVISORY THE SAME AS DO NOT EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH HAS PUSHED GRADUALLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLD DECKS FILLING IN OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING UP. THIS MEANS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDMORNING. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO PLACE THE VSBYS AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI APR 1 2016/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND SOUTH TX PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR LRD EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST UP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THROUGH THE RGV BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF CONV HAVE STARTED FIRING UP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED. THE NEXT QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THE CONV BE TODAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRETTY HEALTHY CAPE VALUES >3000 J/KG. HOWEVER THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING EVIDENT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. ALSO THE EARLY TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE RGV WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE LOCAL INSTABILITY. THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAPE VALUES WILL BE STEADILY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY INCREASING THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. ALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS FOR THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE IN COMPARISON TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THIS TREND. ALTHOUGH THE CAA WILL BE STARTING UP LATER TODAY AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES...THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO WARM UP THE AFTERNOON HIGHS PRETTY WELL. AFTER TODAY HOWEVER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND THE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING CAA. THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT WITH THE MET NUMBERS SHOWING A COOL BIAS. SINCE THE MET IS THE OUTLIER WILL GO CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS THROUGH TOMORROW. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AIR BECOMING DOMINANT. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS IN PLACE HIGH PRESSURE MODIFIES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BACK IN PLACE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ON. OVERALL IT WILL BE A SLOW WEATHER WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY THEN THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE WEST...SO THE FRONT W