Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/31/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

925 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
FOR PARTS OF SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:20 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION AND
OFF THE COASTLINE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR EAST-NORTHEAST, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS TO OUR REGION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY,
GRADIENTS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DECREASE. THIS WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE LOWER SPEEDS TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY -- GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW PLUS MINOR INSTABILITY A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE TRIGGERED TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S ANTICIPATED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON MONDAY FOR THE
NORTH BAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE WEST COAST ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. BEYOND THAT NO
REAL SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THAT VERIFIES, MOST SPOTS NORTH OF MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES WILL RETURN TO DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR AS UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT SOME TAF SITES.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BREEZY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY...ONSHORE
WINDS AFTER 22Z MON. POSBL MVFR FROM STRATUS AFTER 10-12Z TUE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...NARROW STRIP OF STRATUS WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH 16-17Z.
OTHERWISE... VFR WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...AS OF 09:20 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY BEFORE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
TODAY FROM SQUARED SEAS. IMPROVING SEAS AND WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL ENTER THE
COASTAL WATERS MID WEEK.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
918 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool weather system remains over the interior West through mid-
week resulting in cool and breezy weather for NorCal along with
scattered showers over the mountains. Minor snowfall accumulations
will be possible over the northern Sierra. Dry with warmer
temperatures by end of the week.

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather day with the exception of lingering showers
over the western Sierra slopes this afternoon. The HRRR indicates
that shower activity should start developing after 11 am near and
south of the Lake Tahoe region. Sierra showers will continue into
tonight then diminish around 9-10 pm.

Models are also indicating that winds could become breezy again in
the Sacramento Valley this morning starting around 10 am through
the afternoon, then diminishing tonight.

Daytime highs will be near to slightly below normal today.
JBB

.Previous Discussion...Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across interior NorCal early this morning except for extensive
cloudiness over the northern mountains and northern Sierra as
moisture continues to wrap-around the cold closed low now located
along the NV/UT border.

The center of the low is forecast to nudge a bit further east
today, but enough moisture and instability on the backside of the
system will continue a chance of snow showers along the eastern
edge of the forecast area today. The remainder of the area will
continue to see cool and breezy conditions today, though winds are
likely to be a little weaker than Monday.

On Wednesday, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin
to influence the area`s weather, drying out most areas - though a
slight chance of lingering snow showers or flurries will be
possible near the Sierra crest south of Lake Tahoe. No significant
new snow accumulations are expected over the western slopes the
next couple of days.

High pressure takes over Thursday and Friday with dry and milder
conditions.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

A couple weak waves moves across the area over the weekend
bringing a slight chance of showers to northern mountains. Models
diverge early next week with the GFS bringing another inside
slider, while the ECMWF introduces a weak trough over the Pac NW
transitioning into a broad, flat ridge. Either way, nothing too
exciting with the best chance of showers remaining across the
mountains.

The low/trough moves east far enough by Wednesday to rid the area
of any precipitation chances, but it all depends on the position
of the high/low couplet. JClapp
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper low in NV with northerly jet stream over NorCal. N-NE
sustained winds 20 to 30 kts at flight levels 020-050 MSL
highlights Valley. Potential cloud bases 080-100 AGL today with
freezing level 045 this AM increasing to 060 in PM. Winds SFC-050
gradually weaken this aftn. JClapp

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

246 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS KEEPING A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN NICELY BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEVADA WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
EXTENDING BACK TO THE SIERRA. FOR TODAY, SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND
SMALL IMPULSES WORK AROUND THE MAIN LOW. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE
LOW IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND THEN SHIFT THE CENTER EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS PROJECTED TO
BUILD IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AFTER COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS TODAY, THE WARM UP WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AFTER
SATURDAY AS THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKENING TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR
A STRONGER RIDGE WITH ANY SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH.
EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS UNTIL 05Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
221 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over Eastern Nevada will continue to bring a few
showers today and Wednesday. The low moves east by the end of the
week with high pressure building in and lasting into the weekend.
A return to dry conditions and above average temperatures is
expected by Friday.

.SHORT TERM...
The upper low now over Eastern Nevada will move little today and
keep plenty of clouds around. A few showers are possible,
especially east of highway 95 closer to the low. The GFS and NAM
differ though as to if there will be any sort of weak
wraparound/warm air advection snow moving into Western Nevada. The
GFS has it, although it is very weak, while the NAM doesn`t. The
NAM seems to have a slightly better handle on it and keeps it east
of highway 95 at worst. The latest HRRR also supports this idea so
cut back on pops a little for Mono and Western Mineral Counties.
Temperatures will remain quite cool today and feel even colder
with a brisk north to northeast wind.

The low then weakens and moves southeast Wednesday with a further
reduction in showers, mainly isolated south of highway 50. By
Thursday, the low is far enough away with a high amplitude ridge
off the coast and light north flow over the Sierra and Western
Nevada. Dry conditions are expected on Thursday with temperatures
warming back to near average with winds also weakening. Wallmann

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

High pressure will prevail over the weekend which will result in
dry and mild weather. A weak shortwave may brush the area to the
north Saturday for a slight chance of showers north of Susanville
and Gerlach. Temperatures will climb to around 60 in Sierra
Valleys and around 70 for lower western NV valleys.

For early next week, models continue to diverge with some showing
another cold low dropping southward into the region while others
have only a progressive system brushing by to the north. The 00z
deterministic GFS is one of the colder and wetter solutions, but
looking at its ensemble suite, there is sufficient spread to keep
confidence at low. So there were no changes made beyond Sunday.
Hohmann

.AVIATION...
Upper low will continue to bring a brisk north to northeast flow
and isold-sct snow showers today and early tonight. Coverage of
showers is expected to be best south of I-80 with brief periods of
MVFR CIGS/VSBY. The probability of accumulating snow is low.
Shower coverage will decrease and shift farther south on
Wednesday. Gusty north flow aloft may result in some localized
light-moderate turbulence downwind of mountain ranges. Hohmann

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1029 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

SATELLITE SHOWING SURFACE LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF DENVER BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDS TO NNE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE CREATED BY WRAP AROUND FROM THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE RAIN EARLIER WITH IS0LATED
CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW COULD CARRY THESE CELLS TO THE NE SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH 23Z.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL MOVE INTO NW COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR DENVER BY 12Z WED. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY THIS AFTN WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN QG ASCENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. WILL ALSO SEE A FEW TSTMS AS
WELL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. OVER NERN CO LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY NR DENVER BY EARLY AFTN WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTN MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND HIGH BASED STORMS DVLP FM DENVER NORTH TO THE WY BORDER. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS NRN CO WILL
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QG ASCENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
THE BEST FOCUS LIKELY NORTH OF A DENVER TO AKRON LINE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENDS UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DENVER AND
FORT COLLINS THEN BEST CHC OF PCPN WOULD LIKELY STAY CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS SNOW.
IN THE MTNS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WNW AROUND MIDNIGHT
SHOULD SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
OVERALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY IN ZNS 31 AND 33.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE SHEARING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AND INTO
NEBRASKA. RISING MOTIONS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW EVENTUALLY FALLS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST THAN THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL FAVOR THE
NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. EVEN
SO...DENVER SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE PASSING
SYSTEM...SO WILL ONLY MENTION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
DENVER AND BOULDER AREAS. NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WILL HAVE HEAVIER
SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...KEEPING THE SNOW TOO WET TO
PRODUCE ANY BLOWING OR DRIFTING.

THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
STATE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATER ON AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE
STATE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE OVER BY FRIDAY
WITH A DRY WEEKEND ANTICIPATED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 949 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

SATELLITE SHOWS SURFACE LOW SPINNING TO THE SE OF THE AIRPORT
KEEPING CURRENT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. MODELS INDICATING AS THE
LOW PROGRESSES NE WINDS WILL MOVE AROUND TO MORE NORTH BY 17Z.
STILL SEEING SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE HRRR THAT WILL AID IN
BRINGING SOME VCTS BY 23Z AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TEMPO OF
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERED CEILINGS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

WILL SEE GUSTY SSW WINDS AND LOW RH ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY THIS AFTN SO WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN
FIRE WEATHER...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

LATEST DATA SHOWS A SFC LOW MAY INTENSIFY NR DENVER THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. THE RAP KEEPS IT WEST OF DIA WHILE THE HRRR HAS IT JUST NE
OF DIA. THUS WND FCST THIS AFTN WILL NOT BE EASY DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE SFC LOW IS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS WITH MORE A SLY
COMPONENT FOR THE AFTN AND THEN TURN THEM MORE WNW BY 23Z. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVEING HOURS AND AS MID
LVL QG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS COULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
TSTMS. IF THESE OCCUR WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY FM OUTFLOWS
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. APPEARS PCPN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z. OVERNIGHT THERE IS PRETTY STG DOWNWARD FORCING SHOWN IF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN
AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THIS OCCURS. WINDS BY MIDNIGHT MAY BECOME MORE
WSW AND STAY THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016

WILL SEE GUSTY SSW WINDS AND LOW RH ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY THIS AFTN SO WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ247.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ031-033.

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

1015 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.UPDATE...LAPS DEW POINT ANALYSIS INDICATING COLD FRONT FROM
AROUND A ST AUGUSTINE TO CROSS CITY LINE. FRONT WILL PUSH TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT NNE WINDS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...MAINLY MARION
COUNTY...AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH CNTL AND
CNTL FL. THE SHORT WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A SEABREEZE COLLISION
AND OTHER OUTFLOWS TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS CNTL FL AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS N CNTL FL AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR IF THE AIR MASS THERE CAN MOISTEN AND
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS MARION COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. EVERYWHERE ELSE
WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS THE COOLEST...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 20000 FT.

.MARINE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING BUT REMAINING
BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SURF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 77 50 77 62 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 70 59 72 65 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 79 56 78 65 / 0 0 20 10
SGJ 74 63 77 67 / 10 0 20 10
GNV 80 58 80 65 / 10 0 20 10
OCF 80 60 83 66 / 30 10 20 10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

PP/MZ/JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MELBOURNE FL

939 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...

CURRENT-TODAY...MORNING 12Z KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BUT SURPRISINGLY SHALLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. 700/500MB TEMPS
ARE +8.1C/-12.9C RESPECTIVELY WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.11 INCHES.
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. PESKY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY BURNING OFF
PAST MID MORNING. NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST TURNS US TO THE GOMEX WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ALREADY
COOLER AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR U70S/L80S FOR HIGHS BUT
IF DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...AS DEPICTED BY MODELS...IS LATE TO SHOW
UP OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST THEN IT IS FEASIBLE WE COULD SEE HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.

HAVING SAID THAT...LOCAL HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF
MOVING ONTO THE SW/WCNTRL FL COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EASTWARD BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ECFL...GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM KMCO FOR STRONGER/ISOLD SVR ACTIVITY. CONCERNS WITH
CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

TONIGHT...PREVIOUS...THE QUICK MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME SHOWERS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
TREASURE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION...STUBBORN FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING OFF THIS MORNING
WITH A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS THE MCS APPROACHING FROM EASTERN GULF FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. GREATEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL EXIST SOUTHWARD FROM
KMCO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIE. WILL APPROACH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG/ISOLD SVR. MAIN CONCERNS TO AVIATION ARE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF
SOUTHERN FL COAST.

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE ERN
GULF POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE CAPE...EXPECTING NMRS SHRA`S/SCT STRONG STORMS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING ALL IN PLAY. NWRLY MORNING WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
FORECAST TO VEER TO NNE OR E DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELD
WILL LIKELY BE DISRUPTED BY THE LARGE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
ERN GULF WITH WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CONVECTION. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE OTHERWISE.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO END SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. MARINERS
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
FOR APPROACHING BAD WEATHER.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MELBOURNE FL

450 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...

TODAY...A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH TAIL END SETTLING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
DOWN THE PENINSULA...MAINLY INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...A
QUICK MOVING IMPULSE ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS A
GROWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING IT EVOLVING INTO AN EXPANDING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE PENINSULA.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SETTLE TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THIS MAY INCLUDE SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT. THE MOST ACTIVE LIGHTNING STORMS
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL. A FEW STORMS AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.

HAVE GONE ABOVE THE MOS POPS BASED ON THE PERSISTENT HRRR TREND
SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS RESULTED IN LIKELY VALUES SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTH LAKE COUNTY/METRO
ORLANDO/NORTH BREVARD...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 EXCEPT FOR SOME
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COAST.

TONIGHT...THE QUICK MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME SHOWERS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
TREASURE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL WASH OUT OVER THE S
PENINSULA AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
AN INTO THE W ATLC. PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TRAILING RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PWAT AIRMASS (VALUES BTWN 1.0"-1.2") TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES BLO MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WILL
KEEP A SLGT CHC FOR SHRAS IN FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE-O REGION
DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BAND. DESPITE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH H50 READINGS HOLDING ARND
-12C...THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK H85-H70 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION GENERATED BY THE TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PREVENT DEEP
CONVECTION...WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.

ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...AFTN MAXES IN THE
U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY
IN THE M60S...U60S PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THU-THU NIGHT...DEEP SHORT WAVE TROF W OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
BE REINFORCE BY A 100-120KT MERIDIONAL JET NOSING OUT OF WRN CANADA.
AS THE TROF PROGRESSES EWD...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WRN FLANK OF
THE ATLC RIDGE...GENERATING A DEEP S/SWRLY FLOW ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS SEAWARD...MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN
THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ERODE THE MID LVL DRY AIR SUFFICIENTLY TO
BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST FOR ALL COUNTIES. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT AS WELL...BUT H50 TEMPS UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX
REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH THE -10C ISOTHERM DIPPING AS FAR S AS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT READINGS ARND -11C...COLD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
SLGT CHC TSRAS AREAWIDE.

TEMPS CONTINUE WELL ABV AVG AS S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR
MAINTAINS A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABV
CLIMO...L/M80S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR REACHING
THE U80S. MIN TEMPS U60S/L70S...10-15F ABV CLIMO.

FRI-MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EWD
RETREAT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD
THE ERN SEABOARD...DRAGGING A NEW FRONTAL BNDRY INTO THE FL
PENINSULA. SWRLY H100-H70 WINDS FRI AS FRONTAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MODIFY THE DRY AIR ALOFT...PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50-1.75" BUT IN
A"TOP-DOWN" MANNER THAT WILL LEAVE THE H100-H70 ON THE DRY SIDE.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS LINGERING DRY AIR WILL MODIFY AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PD OF PRECIP
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU 00Z SUN WRT WITH THE PROGRESS OF
THE FRONTAL BNDRY...BUT THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THE PARENT LOW OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHES ACRS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THRU 12Z MON...ECMWF GENERATES A 963MB CENTRAL
LOW WHILE GFS INDICATES 975MB. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE EXTRA TORQUE
GENERATED BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION CRANKS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FL
STRAITS BY 12Z MON...WHILE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY 12Z SUN. GFS DOES EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT THRU THE
PENINSULA...BUT REQUIRES A SECONDARY LOW TO DVLP ALONG THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BNDRY IN ORDER TO DO SO.

THESE SIGNIFICANT SOLUTION DIFFERENCES RESULT IN A WIDE SPREAD OF
MOS POPS BY MON NEXT WEEK...ECMWF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...GFS IN THE
40-50PCT RANGE. GIVEN THE LATEST FRONTAL BNDRY HAS STALLED OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL
KEEP POPS BLO 50PCT. TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN COOL ENOUGH (AOB -9C) TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF TSRAS IN THE FCST EACH DAY.

PREVAILING WRLY WIND THRU SAT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...MAXES IN
THE U70S/M80S...MINS TEMPS IN THE M/U60S FRI...COOLING INTO THE
U50S/L60S N OF I-4 SAT AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR SUN/MON WILL RETURN READINGS TO NEAR
CLIMO AVGS.

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD FROM KMLB-
KMCO-KISM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SETTLE TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY EVENING. THOUGH SLIGHT DRYING WILL WORK DOWN THE
PENINSULA...A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY SOUTH OF ABOUT KMCO-KTIX WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LOOK IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE KISM-KMCO-KTIX- KSFB-KLEE AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE KDAB.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH
OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. A FEW COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS. BY LATE TONIGHT...CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

WED-WED NIGHT...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH
ERLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. SLGT CHC OF SHRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

THU-THU NIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS
SEAWARD...ALLOWING A NEW FRONTAL TROF TO PRESS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH/NE GOMEX. MODERATE TO FRESH SERLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY BCMG S
AFT SUNSET. SEAS SOMEWHAT FETCH PROTECTED DUE TO THE BAHAMA SHADOW
RESULTING FROM THE S/SE FLOW...STILL ANTICIPATE 4-5FT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT SEAS OFFSHORE...UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM. CHC TSRAS N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET...SLGT CHC TSRAS S OF THE INLET.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS AS THE FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO THE
NRN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE AT DAYBREAK...BCMG A
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE BY LATE AFTN...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
S/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT. NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5FT THRU THE DAY SUBSIDING
TO 3-4FT OVERNIGHT...OFFSHORE SEAS 4-6FT THRU THE DAY SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT OVERNIGHT. CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AS IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE THRU
LATE AFTN...BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
BY SUNSET. NRLY SURGE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN WITH WINDS BCMG A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NRLY BREEZE FROM VERO BEACH NWD. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 64 78 66 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 80 64 85 66 / 50 20 0 10
MLB 80 68 81 69 / 60 20 10 10
VRB 80 67 81 67 / 60 30 10 10
LEE 79 62 85 65 / 40 20 0 10
SFB 78 63 84 65 / 40 20 0 10
ORL 80 65 85 66 / 50 20 0 10
FPR 79 68 82 67 / 60 30 20 10

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

415 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 EXCEPT FOR SOME
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COAST.

ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...AFTN MAXES IN THE
U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY
IN THE M60S...U60S PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRI-MON...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

146 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 /

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN AWHILE BUT WE FINALLY HAVE A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE
NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE MID WEST STATES MEANS A TEMPORARY
REPRIEVE FROM QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS THAT SWIFT ZONAL FLOWN HAD BEEN
PROVIDING. SO FOR TODAY...IT BECOMES MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH IS MADE DIFFICULT BY RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. UNDER A
MUCH DIFFERENT SETUP WE SAW TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE SAT AND SUN
WHILE YESTERDAY WE WERE A TOUCH ABOVE. FEEL CURRENT SETUP IS MUCH
MORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS DESPITE SOME ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS REACHING THE MID 70S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES...WE WILL SEE A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 4K
FT AND MIXING TO 5K FEET. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS TODAY WITH THIS MIXING PROFILE THAT DRIVES RH
VALUES TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. DURATIONS ARE
WILL BE CLOSE BUT SHOULD BE MET FOR WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. THERE IS
SOME SUBTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LATE ON WED THAT WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC
LIFT BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

DEESE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LATE
WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PULLS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THURSDAY. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SETTLES INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...ACTING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY WILL USHER THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...FINALLY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

CAPES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS. SPC ALREADY HAS THE PORTIONS OF THE CWA OUTLOOKED
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAY 3 /THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
CARROLLTON...TO ATLANTA...TO MACON...TO ALBANY. THE REMAINING
AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
IS IN THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE OUTLOOK ZONE FOR FRIDAY /DAY 4/. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE THUNDER MENTION FOR BOTH TIMEFRAMES WITH
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASING STRONG CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...AND THIS WORDING MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOMALOUS PWS ARE ALSO OF A CONCERN FOR THIS PROLONGED
PERIOD...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE AND THE BOUNDARY
BEING A PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR NOW HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE POSITIONED OVER FAR
NORTH GEORGIA FOR THURSDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WPC
FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF
SELECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN A CONSENSUS.

ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE STATE SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
OF HOW LONG THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...WITH THE GFS BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBOR GRIDS.

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING
IN SOME LOW END VFR CIGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CALM TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 45 74 60 / 0 0 0 40
ATLANTA 71 49 73 61 / 0 0 5 50
BLAIRSVILLE 66 42 66 55 / 0 0 5 70
CARTERSVILLE 70 45 74 61 / 0 0 10 60
COLUMBUS 76 50 79 64 / 0 0 10 40
GAINESVILLE 68 47 70 58 / 0 0 5 50
MACON 74 47 77 61 / 0 0 0 30
ROME 69 43 75 60 / 0 0 10 70
PEACHTREE CITY 72 45 75 60 / 0 0 5 50
VIDALIA 75 49 77 63 / 0 0 0 10

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

719 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DEESE

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... NO CONCERNS AS VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER
NORTHEAST BY 14Z THIS MORNING... THEN BECOME MORE EAST BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 8KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 45 74 60 / 0 0 0 60
ATLANTA 71 49 73 61 / 0 0 5 70
BLAIRSVILLE 66 42 66 55 / 0 0 5 80
CARTERSVILLE 70 45 74 61 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBUS 76 50 79 64 / 0 0 10 60
GAINESVILLE 68 47 70 58 / 0 0 5 70
MACON 74 47 77 61 / 0 0 0 40
ROME 69 43 75 60 / 0 0 10 80
PEACHTREE CITY 72 45 75 60 / 0 0 5 70
VIDALIA 75 49 77 63 / 0 0 5 10

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

416 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN AWHILE BUT WE FINALLY HAVE A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE
NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE MID WEST STATES MEANS A TEMPORARY
REPRIEVE FROM QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS THAT SWIFT ZONAL FLOWN HAD BEEN
PROVIDING. SO FOR TODAY...IT BECOMES MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH IS MADE DIFFICULT BY RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. UNDER A
MUCH DIFFERENT SETUP WE SAW TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE SAT AND SUN
WHILE YESTERDAY WE WERE A TOUCH ABOVE. FEEL CURRENT SETUP IS MUCH
MORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS DESPITE SOME ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS REACHING THE MID 70S.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LATE
WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PULLS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THURSDAY. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SETTLES INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...ACTING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY WILL USHER THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...FINALLY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
NO CONCERNS AS VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NORTHEAST BY LATE
THIS MORNING... THEN BECOME MORE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 8KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

438 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AFFECT
THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES IN UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE.
DESPITE THIS DRY AIR MASS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
RESIDUAL SFC/NEAR SFC MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL ASSESS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR
TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME PATHCY FOG MENTION WILL BE REQUIRED EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED
AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BE LIMITED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP THERMAL AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN PLACE
TODAY AND ONLY A GRADUAL MODERATION OF THE COOL LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.
THE BIG DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION THAT SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH DEPARTURE OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. GOOD DECOUPLING STILL ANTICIPATED HOWEVER WHICH WILL
KEEP LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH A DAY OF FULL
INSOLATION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT MENTION WITH
THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST EVENING...TEMPS
SHOULD TAKE SHARP DROP EARLY EVENING TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
MORE SLOWLY FALLING OR STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT AND MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINS TO INCREASE DUE TO WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

INITIAL CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WHEN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS
WITH CAPES AT TIMES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. ALSO...WEB BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS 8K TO 9K FEET ARE OPTIMUM FOR HAIL. SOME CAVEATS FOR
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDE EARLIER CONVECTION THAT MAY STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT AND UPSTREAM STORMS THAT MAY LIMIT MOISTURE INFLOW
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION THIS RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME VERY COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND
REACH THE FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE HAD GREAT DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE SOUTH BOUNDARY OF
THIS VERY COLD AIR. BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF BRINGING VERY COLD
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF FAVORS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE WOULD BRING A WET SNOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. FOR NOW...MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. IT IS POSSIBLE IF THE
SOUTHERN ECMWF TRACK VERIFIES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30S
WITH WET SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

A FEW OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. WOULD SUSPECT
BASED ON RAP MOISTURE SOUNDINGS THAT THIS FOG IS VERY SHALLOW IN
NATURE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN IMPACTS AT TERMINALS. WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH THE 06Z TAFS BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY INCLUSION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST VALID WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT AS
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

GRADUAL DISSOLVE OF MOIST/CYCLONIC 925MB FLOW ALONG WITH
PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE DCVA OVER SWRN WI AND ASSOCIATED SUCCINCT DRY
SLOT TO PENETRATE NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING...COINCIDENT
WITH UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER DOWNWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH RISING
PRESSURE/HEIGHTS SFC/ALOFT. DEGREE OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH PWAT
BOTTOMING OUT IN 0.15-0.20 RANGE LATE TONIGHT TO AFFORD SIG DEGREE
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...THOUGH RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO COLD NAM
GIVEN DOWNSTREAM SHUNT OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF TO SRN ONT/LK
SUPR TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERMAL ADVECTION
REMAINS RATHER NEUTRAL INTO TUE WITH CONTINUED VEERING/LIGHT FLOW
WITH SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED OVERHEAD...STRONG LATE MARCH
INSOLATION SUPPORTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES AND CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO PRIOR AND WELL INLINE WITH HONED MOS SCATTER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP TIMING/AMOUNTS WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY EJECTS
NORTHEAST. VERY GOOD MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COUPLED 120+ KT UPPER JET STREAKS AND GOOD MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT
FALLS. STRENGTHENING LLJ (TO AROUND 60 KTS) WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ADVECT POTENT THETA-E RIDGE INTO OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR WEST
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL THETA-E SURGE BUT SUSPECT
MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MAIN VORT MAX SWINGS THROUGH. PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT BEST DYNAMICS BYPASS US TO THE
NORTH. THIS COUPLED WITH PRECIP LARGELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE MEAN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS IN CHECK. DID ADD CHANCE THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN OUR EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OTHER STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. TIGHT GRADIENT
SOUTH OF 980MB LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS BUT QUESTION WILL BE
MIXING DEPTHS. GFS SUGGESTS STRONG DESCENT/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TO MIX INTO 50 KT
WINDS. THIS IS LIKELY A TAD OVERDONE LOOKING AT THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BUT NONETHELESS WILL BE BREEZY AND WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR LONG TERM IS ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -8C AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 50S. ALSO A FEW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY BUT KEPT REST OF THE WEEKEND DRY GIVEN
LIMITED SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

645 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TONIGHT`S FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND STALLED ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF WATERLOO WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF DENISON. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. SOME CLEARING
EVIDENT ON 2015Z VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AS
WELL AS THE 30.20Z RUC SUGGEST SURFACE BASE CAPE BETWEEN 700-1100
J/KG. WEAK CONVERGENCE PRESENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
SPAWNED A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OVER CRAWFORD/CARROLL COUNTY
AREA...BUT CAP IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM DEVELOPING ANY
FURTHER. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH 02Z...BUT CHANCES QUICKLY WANE AS THE SUN SETS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND EVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS REASONABLE FOR
SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...BUT THE 0-1KM IS WEAK AND HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TORNADIC THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
HAIL AND EVEN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TO
THE MISSOURI BORDER.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CAA SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH BETWEEN 06-12Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THURSDAY WILL REPRESENT A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION
DECREASING IN THE MORNING THE INCREASING CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES WILL HINGE ON LOW
LEVEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD HAVE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY HAVE SNOW FLAKES REACH INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA. POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
AREAS THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. ANOTHER PUSH FOR
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD CONDITIONS TO END THE
PERIOD.

THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
CERTAINLY READINGS WILL DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE HEADLINES MAY BE CONSIDERED AT THAT TIME.

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

LOW OVR KOMA TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE NEXT 6-12HRS. EXPECT SCT TSRA
THROUGH 06Z. SFC WND G45KT AND NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH STORMS ARE EXPECTED. AFT 06Z LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR
WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE LOWER CIGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS AN INITIAL...WEAKER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE THE PARENT TROUGH
COMES THROUGH AFT 21Z AND BEYOND.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

312 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

Early this morning a deep upper low was located over NV and will
slowly dig east-southeast into the four corners area Tonight. A
downstream upper level ridge over the plains will move east to the
mid and lower MS river valley Tonight.

As a 60 KT H5 jet max lifts northeast across the central Rockies a
lee surface trough across the central and southern high plains will
deepen through the day. As a result of the increasing surface
pressure gradient across central KS, southeasterly surface winds
will increase across the CWA to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 to 40
MPH. The strongest winds will be across north central KS where
sustained winds may approach 30 MPH this afternoon with some gusts
to 40 MPH.

Weak isentropic lift at the 300 theta level may cause a few showers
across north central KS this morning. An elevated mixed layer at 730
MB will over spread eastern KS, thus the CAP should really increase
through the day. I don`t really see to much in the way of elevated
thunderstorms with the strong CAP in place. Later Tonight the LLJ
will increase and deeper gulf moisture will be advected northward
into central KS, so there may be enough lift for isolated elevated
thunderstorms late tonight and through the early morning hours of
Wednesday. MUCAPEs are forecasted to remain less that 500 J/KG, so I
do not expect any severe hail Tonight with any elevated thunderstorm
that develops.

Southeasterly surface winds and mid level clouds will keep
temperatures in the 60s. The warmest highs will be across the far
eastern counties of the CWA due to more insolation, which may help
to warm temperatures into the upper 60s. The western counties will
only reach the lower to mid 60s with more cloud cover.

There will be a very high fire danger for northeast and east central
KS due to minimum RHs around 30 percent and afternoon wind gusts of
30 to 35 MPH. North central KS should see higher humidity in the 40
to 45 percent range and most areas will only see a high fired
danger. However, southeast winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 40
MPH will make any outdoor burning difficult.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

Period starts with a deep lee surface low over western Nebraska,
with the main upper level shortwave trough centered over the Central
Great Basin. This surface low will begin to move east during the
day Wednesday bringing a dryline through northeast Kansas. Models
still vary slightly on the timing of this features with the GFS
being the slightly faster model with a deeper surface low allowing
for a more northward extent of the dryline. Skies will start out
overcast and low in the morning, with mixing helping to break up
cloud cover by the afternoon. CAPE values range from 1000-2000 J/kg
depending on the model, with 0-6 km bulk shear values consistently
over 40 kts. Low level values of shear and helicity in the eastern
half of the CWA are also quite impressive, indicating the
possibility for all hazards to be present with any surface based
storms. Timing wise, the greatest likelihood for any strong storms
would be late afternoon into the evening hours initiating along the
dry line. Storms will likely begin discrete before transitioning
into a line, with the greatest potential for storms to form east of
Herington to Junction City to Hanover line. With timing issues
between some models, the times and exact locations mentioned may be
altered as the system evolves.

Rain chances continues overnight Thursday as the surface low moves
northeast wraps around this system. NW winds lead to cold air
advection Thursday morning, although mostly sunny skies and diurnal
heating will allow highs to reach the upper 50s to low 60s. Another
shortwave in the main trough axis will lead to rain chances near the
Kansas/Nebraska boarder Thursday night. From Friday onward, dry
conditions and a warming trend will be seen.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

The RAP and HRRR have been consistent in keeping any elevated
storms Tues morning to the west of MHK. Because of this, have
already removed the VCTS and think storms are unlikely to impact
the terminals through 06Z Wed due to a capping inversion progged
by the forecast soundings and only weak forcing anticipated. I
have added some LLWS at TOP and MHK as the RAP and NAM forecast
soundings show 30KT at the top of the inversion while surface
winds have backed to the east. As long as FOE maintains a decent
surface wind, think LLWS will be a low probability of occurring.
Operational and MOS guidance show VFR conditions prevailing with a
mid deck around 5KFT moving in through the day Tuesday.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1114 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

Strong upper low was noted digging south over eastern California,
with an embedded wave ejecting eastward towards the desert
southwest. Lee trough ahead of the system has created gusty south to
southeast winds this afternoon at 12 to 15 mph
sustained...occasionally gusting to 30 mph for the next few hours.
This in turn has mixed down dewpoints with RH values near the 20
percent range over portions of north central Kansas. Since these
conditions are marginal with some increasing green coverage, have
decided to keep the mention of very high fire danger through the
afternoon hours.

Southerly winds at the sfc weaken this evening as southwesterly flow
increases moisture and isentropic lift aloft in advance of the
incoming sfc low on Tuesday. High clouds increase west to east
alleviating lows tonight to the 40s. Decent chance for precip
Tuesday is centered over an area of broad, weak forcing near a warm
front over southern Nebraska. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible through late afternoon, mainly areas
north of Interstate 70, close to the NE border. MUCAPE is pretty
weak below 500 J/KG and shear is marginal for any severe weather to
occur. In terms of temps, trended cooler than previous forecast
given the thicker/lower stratus over north central KS where lower
60s are likely. Upper 60s are forecast over far eastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...Overnight lows into Tuesday night
stay up into the 50s as the next upper trof is on approach from the
west. Isentropic lift still producing some weak QPF in the models,
and could be just enough instability for a rumble of thunder
depending on how much moisture makes it northward as precip starts
mainly after midnight. Just have some slight chances west of
Manhattan. This area of clouds and possible precip moves eastward
in the morning hours.

Residual cloud cover could have some impact on available instability
in the warm sector, but guidance still coming out with around 1000-
1600J/kg of CAPE by mid day. Still in question is the position of
the dryline, with the NAM and EC more in line with a later arrival
and GFS faster eastward. The dryline on our western border mid
afternoon, along with 40-50kts of bulk shear, would make for severe
weather potential in the late afternoon and into the evening hours.
Devil will be in the details, such as degree of low level moisture
return and wind fields, or if the faster GFS comes to fruition. At
this point would favor afternoon and evening storm development for
our area. Precip shifts eastward through the night with another
chance for rain across the north as the front and upper low move
east.

For the extended period beginning on Friday, the upper level trough
will finally swing through but lingering precip should be limited as
lift will have transitioned into subsidence. Winds could be a
little gusty in the afternoon Friday as skies clear and good mixing
takes place. Fire danger looks to be limited with the cooler temps
however. The period is characterized by a dry atmosphere and quite
pleasant conditions. High surface pressure will park off to the
south over the Southern Plains into the Mid and Lower MS Valley
regions. This effectively closes off the return of gulf moisture.
Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging to almost a more zonal flow
regime sets up over the weekend. So, while temps gradually rise over
the period, it will only start out in the 50s on Friday and rise
into the mid 70s by Monday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. &&

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67/Drake
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1110 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. &&

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67/Drake
AVIATION...Wolters

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

433 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG BLDG
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 80M AT GRB
AND APX...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER THE WRN CONUS.
SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS ARE RESULTING IN QUIET WX OVER THE CWA DESPITE
INCRSG HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN INCRSG SLY FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
HI PRES TO THE SE AND FALLING MSLP IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF
WRN TROF. DESPITE THE INCRSG HI CLD COVER...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 50S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF...ESPECIALLY WHERE SLY FLOW
IS DOWNSLOPING. SOME RA TO THE NE OF SFC WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS MOVED AS FAR NE AS FAR SW MN THIS AFTN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS AND TIMING
ARRIVAL OF RA AHEAD OF PLAINS SFC LO PRES/WARM FNT FCST TO APRCH FM
THE SW.

TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL
AIR...INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC RELATED TO SHARPENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MSTR ADVECTION BEST SHOWN ON THE 290 AND 295K SFCS /ABOUT H8-
7/ AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX FCST NEAR JAMES BAY AT
12Z WED WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. MORE PERSISTENT LLVL DRY AIR OVER THE SE HALF
CLOSER TO DEPARTING SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WL HOLD
DOWN POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH THE THICKENING CLDS AND STEADY SSW
WINDS...THE OVERNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH SFC
TEMPS FCST TO HOLD WELL ABOVE 32...THERE WL BE NO FROZEN/FRZG PCPN.

WED...PERIODS OF RA UNDER AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/290-295K ISENSTROPIC ASCENT WL BE
THE RULE. A SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHRTWV IN THE NRN
BRANCH FLOW IS FCST TO REACH THE NW CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECWMF...SUGGESTS SOME
MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NRN BRANCH FLOW MAY RESULT IN
DIMINISHING POPS OVER AT LEAST THE FAR NW LATE IN THE DAY. SO FCST
WL RETAIN SOME LOWERING OF POPS IN THAT AREA TOWARD 00Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER SHOULD REMAIN IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE
RIDGE WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TOP OUT AT 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP TROFFING INTO
SE CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO SAT. WHILE CORE OF A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR WILL
PASS BY TO THE NE...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BLO CLIMATOLOGY HERE INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR
EARLY APR STANDARDS THIS WEEKEND. MODERATION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HELPS
TO MAINTAIN ERN TROFFING. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MODERATION BACK TOWARD
MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...
TEMPS COULD FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT THRU THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS
MODELS SUGGEST WRN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY AT TIMES...ALLOWING LINGERING
COLD AIR IN CANADA TO DUMP S BRIEFLY BEHIND PASSING SHORTWAVES. AS
FOR PCPN...EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...PCPN WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE MAIN PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU.
SHORTWAVE PASSING FRI WILL PRODUCE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHSN. CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHSN. AFTER THE WEEKEND...THERE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY IN PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL PCPN.
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AND RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGEST THE NEXT BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WOULD OCCUR AROUND WED.

BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PHASING IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU
MANITOBA. BASED ON YESTERDAYS AND TODAY GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP WINTER
STORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND OF HVY PCPN WILL EVOLVE
FROM THIS COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT SOME
MDT TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T OCCUR SOMEWHERE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NARROW IN ON A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN
PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI AND THRU THE STRAITS AREA...AND ALL AVBL 12Z
MODELS NOW SHOW QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR
INTO UPPER MI WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS
CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST S WITH COLDER AIR AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT EACH
TIME STEP LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU. IN EXCLUDING THE NAM...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX GRADUALLY WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE WED
NIGHT/THU...BEGINNING NW LATE WED EVENING AND NOT REACHING THE SE
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN THU. WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEVELOPED
SYSTEM/DEFORMATION PCPN...HEAVIER PCPN WILL NOT EXTEND TOO FAR NW
INTO THE COLDER AIR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
MAX SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVY RANGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE NW HALF
OF UPPER MI. PER 00Z AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE AREA
ROUGHLY FROM WATERSMEET/IRON RIVER NE THRU MICHIGAMME/NEGAUNEE
SHOULD BE THE APPROXIMATE ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACHED...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY FALLING DURING THE DAY THU WHEN WEAK SOLAR
INSOLATION WILL AID MELTING...WATCH HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL THEN SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING SCT TO NMRS -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CHILLY 500MB TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID -30S C.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHSN. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO
-17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT
SCENARIO SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE AS DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTS LES
PROCESSES AND LEADS TO SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN VIGOROUS SHSN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT. -SHSN
WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH MODERATING
TEMPS ALOFT AND LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW...MAY NOT SEE MUCH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AFTER LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN
BY DAYTIME HEATING.

HEADING INTO MON/TUE...THE LAST DAY OR SO OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
HAVE SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE INTO THE RETREATING ERN TROF.
ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WEAK SFC WAVE TRACKING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR WOULD GENERATE A STREAK OF SN
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
SUN NIGHT/MON. UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS FOR POPS
(MOSTLY SCHC) DUE TO THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE A POTENTIAL MIXED
PCPN EVENT WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES IN LOWER MI WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TNGT UNDER THICKENING HIER CLDS. GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND DVLPG LO
PRES IN THE PLAINS WL GIVE WAY TO SOME LLWS TNGT WITH INCRSG NEAR
SFC STABILITY. AS THE SSW FLOW TAPS MOISTER AIR LATE TNGT/WED
MRNG...EXPECT SOME -RA TO ARRIVE AND CIGS TO GRDLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN THE IFR RANGE BY WED MRNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT BETWEEN
DEPARTING HI PRES AND LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...
EXPECT SSW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NNW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONGER NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS
WILL BE THE RULE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS A LO PRES RIDES NE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THERE COULD BE SOME GALES ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF ON THU. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS LO TO
THE NE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE ON FRI. EXPECT
ANOTHER LO TO TRACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE AT NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS COULD REACH AS HI AS 30
TO 35 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUN WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
TRAILING HI PRES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

344 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS AND TIMING
ARRIVAL OF RA AHEAD OF PLAINS SFC LO PRES/WARM FNT FCST TO APRCH FM
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

FOCUS IS ON MID WEEK STORM...BUT MAINLY IN THE LATE WED THROUGH THU
TIME FRAME WHEN PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
BOTH.

COULD WRITE A NOVEL ON ALL THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUMMARIZE GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES AND
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED AND LITTLE TO INDICATE ANY ONE MODEL MAY BE
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT MOVES SE OF THE CWA. HIGHLY COMPLEX SET UP
WITH MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY THAT WILL DECIDE ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK/STRENGTH AND THERMAL FIELDS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW
THE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT AND HOW MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR. OF
CERTAINTY IS RAIN AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER FOR THE CWA ON WED...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY COMING IN LATE WED AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS TEND TO FALL INTO TWO CAMPS. THE
GFS AND GLOBAL GEM ARE FARTHER NW AND WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AND
NAM...AND ALSO FARTHER NW THAN THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THESE MODELS
RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND HAVE THE MOST SNOW OVER THE FAR W/NW
CWA...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION BAND
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY SHOWN OVER THE
W/NW TIER OF COUNTIES. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN THE OTHER CAMP WHICH
IS FARTHER SE AND COLDER THAN THE GFS (AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO)...SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA. UPDATE WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF...THE LATEST RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW TOWARD THE GFS...SO
WILL USE MAINLY A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WITH SOME GEM AND NAM THROWN IN
AS WELL. RESULTING FORECAST IS FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NW TO
SE STARTING LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. BEST
SNOWFALL OCCURS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH THE
FORECAST NOW HAVING 3-6 INCHES ROUGHLY NW OF A LINE FROM KSAW TO
IRON RIVER. NO ALL THAT CONFIDENT IN EXACT AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERALL
IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT LIGHT MAINLY DIURNALLY/INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS FRI. A
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT...DIURNALLY REDUCED NW WIND LES WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -17C BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. NNW WIND LES
SHOULD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SUN WILL MINIMIZE
LES. NOT SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON MON...MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF EXTENDING FM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM NRN PLAINS
SPILLING INTO WRN AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. INTERIOR MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE THUS FAR LOWERED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

TODAY...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES
EXITING TO THE E IS FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS UP TO 2-3C IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S/POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60F OVER THE FAR
W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS TROF
AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING FM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD
NRN ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 295K SFC...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHCS OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE RETAINED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUT AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS...EXPECT SE WINDS TO VEER SSW BY
THIS EVENING AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS JUST TO THE S WED NIGHT INTO THU...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
A WEAK TRAILING HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. N GALES THEN LOOK
LIKELY ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

747 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS INCREASE OFF THE
SFC. SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AS
INCREASING MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

343 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA
WILL PUSH EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE THE STORY GOING THROUGH TODAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM ENCROACH ON THE GREAT LAKES. RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WHICH
WILL PULL IN WARMER AIR ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALONG THE WARM FRONT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. SYSTEM IS
POSITIONED IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND CAN EXPECT THAT TIMING TO BE ADJUSTED
AS LATER MODEL RUNS COME IN. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE 00Z AND
06Z THURSDAY PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START TO BRING IN COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S AS OPPOSED TO
THE 60S THE COUPLE OF DAYS PRIOR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE REGION. MAIN STORY FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPS FILTERING DOWN FROM CANADA AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL DROP
850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -15C BY SUNDAY. BESIDES THE COLDER
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
STABILITY WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SHOWERS
BECOME LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 109 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

DESPITE THE RAPID CLEARING TREND IN THE SATELLITE HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS....VFR STATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE
AREA. THIS LATER TIMING HAD SUPPORT IN THE RAP OUTPUT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A NIGHT WITH SKC AND A LIGHT NW WIND. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPING
TUESDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT QUICKLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF SKC IS EXPECTED FOR LATER
TUESDAY.

FOR DTW...LOW VFR CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT...STILL
SHOULD OVER THE NEXT HOUR.A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* OUTSIDE OF FIRST HOUR IN THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
CIG BELOW 5000 FT AGL.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

335 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AS
ENERGY UNDERCUTS WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE RIDGE WILL
REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP ERN TROFFING INTO SE
CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 3-
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUN. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE
BEEN FOR FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN THE CORE
OF AN UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR PASSING BY TO THE
NE OF HERE. STILL...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND. QUICK MODERATION BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS
WILL THEN OCCUR NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...TEMPS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2
SHORTWAVES/LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE S
OF LINGERING COLD AIR ACROSS CANADA. AS FOR PCPN...MAIN PCPN EVENT
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN
PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU. MORE ON THIS
LATER. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN. NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AROUND
TUE.

BEGINNING TUE NIGHT/WED...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SW CONUS AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 290-295K SURFACES...EXPECT RAIN
TO DEVELOP W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. UNDER SLOW HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPWARD MOTION...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE COLUMN MAY COOL JUST
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER WED AFTN AT THE
EARLIEST...ANY MIX OF RAIN WITH SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER FROPA.

AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO
THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES
TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU MANITOBA.
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP
WINTER STORM WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS MESS OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S
NOT TO SAY THAT SOME MDT TO PERHAPS HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T
OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER LAKES. AS OPPOSED TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...
ROUGHLY THE LAST DAY OF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CONVERGENCE
TOWARD A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI INTO FAR
ERN UPPER MI/STRAITS AREA. DEGREE OF PHASING OF SHORTWAVES WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN. IF THE
SHORTWAVES BECOME BETTER PHASED...A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WITH A HEAVIER/MORE PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION PCPN BAND
DEVELOPING FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR...RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK
OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. WEAKER
PHASING WILL LEAD TO A LESSER RISK OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL
PROFILES...WILL UTILIZE A BLENDED APPROACH OF RECENT MODEL RUNS TO
CONSTRUCT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PTYPE. AT THIS POINT...THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MI HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY REQUIRE A HEADLINE WED NIGHT/THU.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING AT LEAST SCT -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO -17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A
SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO VIGOROUS SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ALOFT. -SHSN WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH OVERALL
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE AND THUS A
QUICKER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR...MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AS LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON MON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY STREAK INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT
MODELS SHOW LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...TYPICAL FOR A SMALLER
SCALE FEATURE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF EXTENDING FM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM NRN PLAINS
SPILLING INTO WRN AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. INTERIOR MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING AHVE THUS FAR LOWERED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

TODAY...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES
EXITING TO THE E IS FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS UP TO 2-3C IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S/POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE FAR
W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

130 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM QUEBEC INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG IN THE
PLAINS AND A DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. SHRTWV/DEEP LO PRES
ARE MOVING THRU SE CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW E OF THE CWA...SOME SC LINGERS OVER THE ERN
CWA IN THE THERMAL TROF /H85 TEMPS ARND -4C/ AND SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC
NLY FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LO. BUT MORE ACYC FLOW
EXTENDING S FM HI CENTER OVER FAR NW ONTARIO/ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS ERODED THE LO CLDS OVER THE W. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV/AREA OF MID CLDS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP...BUT LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STRONGER SHRTWV
IS CAUSING THESE MID CLDS TO DIMINISH AS THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.

TNGT...THE HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO BUILD SLOWLY S UNDER
CONFLUENT NW FLOW E OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO BUILD
IN MN OVERNGT. EXPECT MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV TO
CONTINUE TO DSPT IN THE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THIS RDG. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE LO CLDS MAY
PERSIST OR REFORM OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE NLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHING HI PRES...DRYING/CLRG TRENDS UPSTREAM HINT THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING LESS IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. WITH
PWAT FCST TO FALL TO NEAR 0.20 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AT SOME OF THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA.

TUE...INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING TO THE
E IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 2C IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RDG AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE WRN
GREAT LKS...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S/CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL
DOWNSLOPE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS INTO
TUE. BUT AS THIS HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF DEVELOPING LO PRES IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT ESE VEERING SSW WINDS INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS
INTO WED. AS THE LO TRACKS JUST TO THE S ON WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WEAK TRAILING HI PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG N WINDS THAT MAY REACH GALE FORCE COULD DEVELOP
ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LO PRES THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

109 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.AVIATION...

FOR DTW...LOW VFR CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT...STILL
SHOULD OVER THE NEXT HOUR.A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* OUTSIDE OF FIRST HOUR IN THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
CIG BELOW 5000 FT AGL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OF THE GREAT LAKES HAS TAKEN SYNOPTIC
SCALE RAIN OUT OF SE MICHIGAN LEAVING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
INSTABILITY SHOWER...LOW CLOUDS...AND DIMINISHING WIND FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST LATE MARCH SURFACE HEATING COULD BUBBLE INTO A BRIEF
SHOWER BEFORE SUNSET WHILE CLOUDS TEND TO BREAK UP/BECOME LESS
STRATIFIED.

DRY AND COOLER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO PROMOTE A DECREASING
CLOUD TREND TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALWAYS ADDS AN
ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY TO ANY CLEARING TREND DUE TO LAKE CLOUD
INFLUENCE. IN THIS CASE NEUTRAL NORTHERLY FLOW IS A DRY CLOUD
DIRECTION FOR SE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS OFFERS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO ON THE CLOUD
EVOLUTION AS IT SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD FIELD LINES UP EASTWARD OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS ALSO SOME DIURNAL TEXTURE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE WHICH SUGGESTS FURTHER EROSION WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET. SO THERE MAY BE SOME DELAY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
ACCELERATION OF CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT IN TIME TO PROMOTE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR A CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT
READINGS TO EASILY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHILE SOME MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AROUND SE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE AND
MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY THE SHALLOWEST OF A NEAR SURFACE
MOIST LAYER THAT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT
LATE MARCH CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE NEAR 50 SOUTH AND A MIX OF 40S OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN
IS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE DATE AS A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND DOESNT OFFER MUCH REASON FOR ADJUSTMENT
OUTSIDE OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE THUMB. ONSET OF THE MID WEEK WARMING
TREND THEN LOOKS SOLID AS SOUTHERLY FLOW GAINS MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES OVER NORTH
AMERICA... PRIMARILY ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL ALSO PROMOTE DEEP
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT SINCE THE
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS PRIOR TO BETTER RAINFALL CHANCE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS ARE THUS NUDGED ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CAUTION
FACTORED IN FOR LATE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE TYPE SE WIND COMPONENT.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. LOW TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID
30S. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EVEN COOLER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LINGERING WAVE ACTION ON SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER ALL OTHER
MARINE AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW CANCELLATION OF THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AS OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A SHARP RECOVERY TAKING PLACE DURING LATE AFTERNOON.

WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GET A WARMING TREND GOING
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN MODEST DURING THIS TIME
UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM.

HYDROLOGY...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...BT/RK
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....BT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
931 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Most of the showers were moving into southwest IL this evening
with just a little patchy light rain elsewhere. Thunderstorms
across parts of southwest MO are expected to weaken late this
evening, but will likely move northeastward into parts of central
and southeast MO towards midnight or shortly thereafter. The
latest HRRR model runs indicate that most of the showers/storms
should shift southeast of our forecast area by about 10Z early
Thursday morning. It appears that the severe potential has
lessened for the rest of tonight, although could not rule out
isolated, elevated convection containing heavy rainfall and hail.
With plenty of cloud cover, south-southeasterly surface winds and
relatively strong southwesterly low level winds, and high surface
dew points should not see much of a nocturnal temperature drop
with temperatures holding nearly steady. Low temperatures tonight
will be about 20 degrees above normal for late March.

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Swly flow continues to pump moisture nwd into the area this
afternoon. This is expected to continue into at least the evening
hours with precip dissipating overnight. However, is some
uncertainty regarding how the precip will evolve tonight. Most mdl
guidance suggests ongoing precip shifting nwd and ewd over the
next few hours, leaving a lull earlier in the evening. While a
lull is expected between the WAA precip and a line of storms that
will push out ahead of the cdfnt later tonight, exactly where and
when this occurs is more uncertain. Have kept PoPs tonight rather
high due to ongoing and more stratiform precip between cells. The
bulk of the precip shud exit ern portions of the CWA by sunrise
Thurs.

The cdfnt associated with this system is expected to be just W of
the CWA at 12z Thurs. Mdls prog a leading s/w lifting nwd thru wrn
and nrn portions of the CWA around sunrise. This may allow for
some sunrise surprise storms before lifting out of the area. This
shud leave the remainder of the morning dry as the cdfnt continues
to push ewd.

Because of the slower timing of the cdfnt, have raised temps a
fair amount in some areas compared to the prev forecast. Given
that parts of KS still climbed into the mid 70s today behind the
fnt, the going forecast for parts of cntl and into nern MO may be
too cool. However, with more question of cloud cover, esp further
N, trended a little cooler, but still twd the warmest guidance.

This will also allow for TSRA to develop along the fnt as it
pushes sewd thru the area. Expect TSRA to develop along the fnt
during the early, to perhaps mid, afternoon mainly over the ern
portions of the CWA. However, am a little concerned that mdls are
pushing the fnt thru the area too quickly and have pulled PoPs wwd
during the day to account for this. While TSRA may develop across
nrn portions of the CWA or just N, develop shud continue swwd
along the fnt as the upper trof helps cool temps aloft and the cap
erodes.

Given forecast parameters, expect supercells to develop along the
fnt. While all severe threats will be possible, believe large hail
will initially be the primary threat until the storms reach far
ern portions of the CWA where low level shear is greater posing a
greater tornado threat. However, there is some uncertainty
regarding coverage as mdls are currently suggesting much of the
cap eroding during the day. While storms may be discrete, there
may not be much space between them later in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Main changes to the forecast thru the rest of this week was to
lower PoPs on Fri. Mdls keep much of the precip N of the area as
the upper trof rotates thru. Did not completely remove PoPs during
the afternoon as some SHRA activity is possible. Will need to
watch temps for Fri night with guidance showing close to the
freezing mark. However, with continued mixing expected overnight,
winds may remain strong enuf to prevent frost from forming.

For the weekend and beyond, not a lot of changes made from the
prev forecast. More roller coaster temps expected with a rather
strong cdfnt bringing a low chance for precip on Mon. This fnt
will bring much cooler air into the area, and yet another possible
freeze/frost event with light winds expected as the sfc ridge
builds into the area.

Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet
another chance for precip.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Most if not all of the thunderstorms have shifted out of the area
and rain/showers persist early this evening across eastern MO
into western IL. This activity will move to the east/northeast
this evening and bring rain/showers to KUIN and the St. Louis area
terminals until 02-03z. Conditions will range from VFR to possibly
some brief periods of MVFR flight conditions. In the wake of the
rain, ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range and a
strengthening southerly LLJ will bring LLWS conditions the
remainder of the night into Thursday morning. Precipitation trends
are ambiguous after this initial ongoing wave of rain, and will
depend on activity across eastern KS/northeast OK and if it can
maintain itself as it moves northeast. Confidence is low at this
point and thus largely the TAFS have little to no impactful rain.
A cold front will move across the area from mid-morning into the
afternoon on Thursday with an accompanying westerly wind shift.
This frontal passage should end the MVFR flight conditions, while
along and ahead of the advancing front in the St. Louis region
there is a narrow window for additional thunderstorm development.

Specifics for KSTL:

Most if not all of the thunderstorms have shifted out of the area
and rain/showers will persist until 02-03z. Conditions will range
from VFR to possibly some brief periods of MVFR flight conditions.
In the wake of the rain, ceilings are expected to lower into the
MVFR range and a strengthening southerly LLJ will bring LLWS
conditions the remainder of the night into Thursday morning.
Precipitation trends are ambiguous after this initial ongoing wave
of rain, and will depend on activity across eastern KS/northeast
OK and if it can maintain itself as it moves northeast. Confidence
is low at this point and thus have only mentioned VCSH after 03z.
A cold front will move through KSTL near 20z with an accompanying
westerly wind shift. This frontal passage should end the MVFR
flight conditions, while along and ahead of the advancing front
there is a narrow window for additional thunderstorm development
from 18-20z.

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE UTAH AND
NEVADA BORDER. 100 METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA
INTO NRN AZ AND A 90 KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM SAN DIEGO...TO
FLAGSTAFF AZ. UPSTREAM OF THE LOW...RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
OZARKS NWD INTO NRN MINNESOTA...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION...LED TO THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SWRN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 54 AT ONEILL TO
65 AT NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD...THE MAIN
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THE LATEST NAM12...GFS AND HRRR SOLNS
INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NEBR/CO BORDER AROUND 23Z THIS
EVENING...LIFTING THIS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND NWRN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOTED
TONIGHT WITH 40 TO 60 KTS NOTED. HOWEVER MEAGER CAPES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG EXIST...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MARGINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO GIVEN
THE STRONG APPROACHING LOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A STRONG TS THREAT GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO
VALENTINE LINE. OVERNIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
IN THE VICINITY OF A H7 FRONT WHICH IS ANCHORED ALONG THE SD/NEBR
BORDER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS WELL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS H800 LI/S REMAIN NEGATIVE ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...I KEPT IN A
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE INHERITED FCST. SHIFTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PANHANDLE
INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDS AM...AIR WILL COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A NICE AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WEDS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EAST..IT
OPENS UP AS IT INCREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY TIGHT WINDOW FOR
CONDS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THIS WINDOW HAS BECOME SMALLER WITH THIS
MORNINGS MODEL RUNS AS H85 TEMPS ARE NOW RUNNING 1-2C WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE NORTHWEST...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 3-6 HR
WINDOW WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. ATTM THAT IS APPROXIMATELY
FROM 15 TO 21Z WEDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...CUT BACK SNOW ACCUMS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND NOW HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR WEDS AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. FURTHER EAST...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDS AFTN AND EVE AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDS AM. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN FOR A STRONG STORM MAY LIE IN
THE FAR NERN CWA WHICH MAY END UP INVOF OF A WARM FRONT WEDS AFTN.
THIS IS MORE FAVORED WITH THE GFS SOLN AS THE NAM12 HAS THIS FRONT
SE OF THE AREA BY 21Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

00Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A MARKED DECREASE IN INTENSITY WELL BEFORE
06Z. THE DECREASE IN QPF HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND ULJ DIVE SOUTH FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS SHOWN TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED FOR AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF QPF BEGINNING LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF
IS SHOWN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE OMEGA IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN OVER SNOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE 18Z AND AFTER 00Z AS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH THE DIURNAL TREND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT. DUE
TO RAPID COOLING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SHOWN IN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THUS SHOWERS ARE PREFERRED...BUT
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY ADVANCES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH QPF
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BEYOND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE
FORECAST TURNS DRY WITH A STARK WARMING TREND. THIS IS DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE RIDGE
WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AT DAY 7 OR BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KLBF VICINITY AFTER 00Z.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 00Z AFFECTING KVTN. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH STRATUS SETTLING IN. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 15Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004-094.

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1129 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

H5 HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. A TROUGH WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SWD TO THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF IDAHO WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. HT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOST
PRONOUNCED AT RENO AND MEDFORD OREGON WHERE 100-120 METER FALLS WERE
NOTED. FURTHER EAST...70-90 METER FALLS WERE NOTED AT ELKO NEVADA
AND SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO...WYOMING...ALONG WITH THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED
TO A DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
INVADING HIGH CLOUDINESS CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA... FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE SURFACE LOW.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED WITH THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT RELAXING AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
AFTER DARK. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND MOST
MODELS SHOWING H85 WINDS NEAR 20-25KTS. AROUND 06Z... THE RAP IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE LLJ WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 50KTS OVER THE
SANDHILLS. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE ECLIPSING 30F IN FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 OVERNIGHT... BUT
PUSHED THE POPS BACK UNTIL AFTER 09Z. HRRR KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH 08Z... AND SOME NCAR WRF MEMBERS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
09Z OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KLBF...
KBBW...AND KONL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED SHOWER OR STORM WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LIFT ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH CAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG AND POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX... BUT
LLJ WILL RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SHEAR. DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER... BREEZY CONDITIONS... AND H85 TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 9C... WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND OF MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S
PANHANDLE AND NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY... TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE MAV DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS NEAR 20C AT KIML AND 13C AT KVTN...
ECS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THERMAL AXIS... AND NAM SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA RESULTING IN 10C AT KIML AND 6C AT KVTN. HAVE COOLEST HIGHS
NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO COOLER H85 TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL
FGEN FORCING ENTERS THE PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z... SO EXPANDED POPS FROM
KIML TO KVTN. MENTIONED THUNDER WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG... 0-6KM
SHEAR NEAR 45KTS... AND LIFTED INDEX NEAR 0. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT KAIA AND KOGA SHOW SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295K AND 300K. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALSO CONTINUES WITH MIXING RATIOS NEARING 8G/KG AND DEW
POINTS PASSING 45F BY 21Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...AND
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...BRIEFLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA LINE. BY
MIDNIGHT...THE H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT SERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBR
PANHANDLE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPG LOW...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS MID LEVEL WAA AND LIFT. LIFT WILL
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INVOF OF THE H7
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY MENTION OF POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE NOTED PER NAM AND GFS FCST NEGATIVE H850 LIFTED INDICES. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE EAST ENTERING THE
WESTERN CWA...THEN EXITING THE EASTERN CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO COLD AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 LOW AND THIS TIES IN DIRECTLY TO SNOW
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST SOLN...WITH
THE ECMWF WARMEST AND THE NAM A COMPROMISE. ALSO...THE 12Z
GFS...AND00Z ECMWF FROM LAST NIGHT...LIFT THE H5 LOW IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS MORE EAST.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLN WHICH
WAS FAVORED. THIS SOLN GENERATES THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NERN PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY.
UTILIZING A 8-1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO SINCE TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER
30S...YIELDS 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO HOIST A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY FOR WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
EAST...A LATER CHANGEOVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FACILITATE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACCUMS WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD RAIN WEDS NIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDS AFTERNOON...THE NAM12 REMAINS
THE FARTHEST WEST WITH ITS DRYLINE WEDS AFTN AND BY 00Z
THURSDAY...IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM SOLN
INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE BULGE...JUST TO THE EAST OF
WHEELER COUNTY LATE WEDS AFTN. SWRLY H5 WINDS WILL CARRY THIS AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA...SO NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW...WILL END OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEING IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. IN THESE AREAS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MENTION WAS CONTINUED WITH THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BACK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 2C IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO -4C IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 50 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ATTM...THE MODELS DO KEEP THIS AIR
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MAY BE VULNERABLE TO
THIS ARCTIC AIR BACKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLIER MODEL SOLNS SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS TUESDAY HAVE VANISHED.
THE LATEST NAM SUGGESTS MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE.

MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AOA 08Z
WHICH SHOULD EXIT 15Z-18Z. ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTH AND SPREADS
NORTH NORTHEAST.

OTHER SHOWER AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY
AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN NEB FROM 21Z ONWARD TUESDAY
AFTN.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ004.

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

958 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE
PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED SEVERAL WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR THE
TODAY PERIOD INCLUDING EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO MOST
MOUNTAINS BASED ON THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FIELD AND A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL WEAK CIRCULATION THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING WHERE WINDS WERE STILL
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER, OTHER THAN
LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE
TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LOCAL MESONET DATA CURRENTLY
IS SHOWING WINDS AT NEARLY EVERY DIRECTION. THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PERIOD WILL BE 17-20Z WHEN MODELS SHOW WIND DIRECTION FAVORING A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION UP TO 8 KTS. AFTER 20-21Z, MODELS AGREE THAT
WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CEILING AOA 8K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POCKETS OF STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...225 AM PDT...

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 40 MPH ACROSS WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE AREA AT 3AM...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 523 UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THOSE GUSTY WINDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER
WIND CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER
DYNAMICS TO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE DOWN AROUND 5000 FEET...BUT WITH THE
COLD POOL BASICALLY CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE START OF A WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH THAT IS POISED
TO DEVELOP AFTER THE MAIN LOW EXITS THE REGION MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE REGION IN A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
...ESPECIALLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAYS WIND
EVENT...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN WATER RECREATION IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.

THE SECOND UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...GIVING WAY TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
RESULTING IN BENIGN WEATHER AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. TO
GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON HOW QUICKLY WE WILL WARM UP...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES
QUICKLY DEGRADE IN QUALITY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ONLY
CURRENT CONSISTENT SIGNALS POINTING TOWARD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET WILL BE KEY IN WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH OUR WEATHER...WITH AT
LEAST ONE SOLUTION POINTING AT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED!
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...SALMEN

PREV DISC...

SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PULLIN
AVIATION...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

225 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CEILING AOA 8K FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PULLIN
AVIATION...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
221 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

947 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AS EXPECTED...A DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS CAUSED A DELAY IN RAIN AT
THE SURFACE COMPARED TO RADAR ECHOES...BUT SINCE ABOUT 0130 UTC AN
INCREASE IN LIGHT RAINFALL REPORTS HAS BEEN NOTED. THUS IT APPEARS
SATURATION IS FINALLY TAKING PLACE...AND AS FORCING ONLY INCREASES
THROUGH 09 UTC /ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL ND/ PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BECOME EVEN MORE EFFICIENT. THIS UPDATE FOCUSED ON REFINING POPS
BASED ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS AND THE 00 UTC NAM...WHICH DID
MEAN PUSHING THEM INTO THE CATEGORICAL /80 PERCENT/ RANGE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FORCING
WILL BE FOCUSED THERE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS UP ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
BUT WE ARE STILL CARRYING A MIX WITH AND POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW
IN MOST AREAS. RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR A MINOT TO STEELE LINE...
WHICH IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ITEM GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AGGRESSIVE QPF OUTPUT FROM THAT GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...LATER TRENDS WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MT AS OF 23 UTC AND IS ON
TRACK TO ENTER NORTHWEST ND IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT WE DID
DELAY THE EASTWARD PACE OF OUR ADVERTISED INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
OF 20+ F IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND. EVALUATION OF THE 18 UTC GFS
AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS STILL VERY
STRONGLY SUPPORT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
IN FACT...THE 18 UTC GFS PORTRAYS COUPLING BETWEEN STRONG LOW-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND 500-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTIVE OF RATHER ROBUST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
ND BETWEEN ABOUT 03 AND 12 UTC. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS PROBLEMATIC
AS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL WITH TIME...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE 40S F AND THAT DOES
RAISE SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW QUICKLY ANY CHANGE TO SNOW MAY TAKE
PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THAT ISSUE THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY NORTHWEST SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT...PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WEST AND SUSTAINING THROUGH THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS SO RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC CU FIELD
DEVELOPED RATHER RAPIDLY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM S/WV
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
POTENT S/WV WITH STRONG PVA. INITIALLY WE HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO
BEGIN NORTHWEST...THEN EXPANDING THIS EVENING SOUTH AND EAST.
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW THEN ALL SNOW LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. RADAR SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE ECHOS AS
THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. MODELS COMING IN
WARMER IN THE MID 30S SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE DECREASED TO LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH MANY AREAS. STILL MAY GET 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE COLDER SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST ALLOWING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. SNOW WILL FALL
ELSEWHERE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING ONLY
EXPECTED ON GRASSY AREAS OR ELEVATED STRUCTURES LIKE DECKS OR
ROOFTOPS. OVERALL IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...BUT SOMETHING
TO MONITOR TONIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING.

COLDER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 GIVE OR TAKE 3-4 DEGREES.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ELEVATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SNOW...RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...THEN
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT WEST...THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THIS IS
WHERE HEADLINES WERE ISSUED BASED IN LARGE PART ON BUFKIT DATA.
VERY POSSIBLE THE WIND ADV WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT NORTH OR
EAST. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WHEN NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIGHT ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS NORTHWEST FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH THROUGH WILLISTON
AND CROSBY. THINKING IS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED ENOUGH AND
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE/SURGE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

FOR FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
EXPECTED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. STILL POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO SPEED UP AND/OR SHIFT
BACK WESTWARD SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS BRING ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO MAY GET ANOTHER
RAIN/SNOW MIX TYPE EVENT. RIGHT NOW HEAVIER QPF REMAINS OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE...BUT
WILL HAVE A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST AND MUCH WARMER SOUTHWEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THEN TOWARDS MID-WEEK BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER STRONG S/WV INTO THE REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL
ISSUES SO UNCERTAINTY ELEVATED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS MOVES IN
AND/OR DEVELOPS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 06 AND 18
UTC. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
AS WELL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ040-041-043-
044.

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

931 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER IN
BRINGING PCPN INTO THE NW FA AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH 12Z SO UNCERTAIN ABOUT ANY -SN
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

NO UPDATE NECESSARY THIS GO AROUND. MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL
BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER WAVE DROPPING SE OUT OF S
CENTRAL SASK. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A WINTER MIX
MAINLY TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL DOWN OVER SE WY/NE CO/NEB
PANHANDLE AREA...WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. MOST OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT DOWN THROUGH ND LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL SD BY TOMORROW. BOTH THE SHORT/HIGH RES
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL RUNS BRING SOME HEALTHY
QPF INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
AND RAP BOTH HAVE SOME FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
WITH GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 18Z THURSDAY...THE
BEST FRONTOGENESIS/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO PRECIP TYPE.
THE SREF PROBABILITIES HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP...BUT TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC
LOW IN CANADA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. 925MB TEMPS ARE
RIGHT AT THE 0 C MARK...BUT SOME DYNAMIC COOLING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. INCLUDED SOME SNOW MIXING IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND PUT AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY HIGHLIGHT OUT
AT THIS POINT. THINK THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN AND HELP PUSH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT
GIVEN OUR TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE THESE TYPE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
WILL BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY WITH 20S AND 30S ON
SATURDAY. THINK THAT PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW...AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SAT
WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MON AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MEANS NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED... SLIGHTLY COOLER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN THROUGHOUT
TUES... IMPLYING WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS IN WESTERN ND SHOULD HAVE
A WARMING WESTERLY COMPONENT. ON WED A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA... BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

CIGS/VSBY WILL START OUT VFR. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY UPPER
WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE VSBY AS RASN MIX SWITCHES TO SNOW. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ATTM LOOKS TO BE THE DVL TAF SITE. STAYED
CONSERVATIVE WITH TAF CIGS VS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

628 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

608 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL FALL TO THE MVFR RANGE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SPOTS BETWEEN 06 AND 18 UTC. LOWERING CEILINGS...RAIN...AND IN
SOME AREAS SNOW WILL BE CONCERNS WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ040-041-043-
044.

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

603 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
20S THIS EVENING (TEENS NW PA). WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
LATER AND AS WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO PICK UP...EVEN A FEW KNOTS...
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF OR BEGIN TO RISE A BIT...MAINLY WEST OF
I-71 AND NEAR THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...ALSO BEING HELPED AS SOME
CIRRUS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EAST AND
NEAR FREEZING WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME
MID CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL PICK UP. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR +8C IN THE WEST...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
EASILY RUN INTO THE 60S...NEAR 60 FOR NORTHWEST PA.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF GULF MOISTURE WITH A
BUILDING JET ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AND INCREASING
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA FOR A WHILE BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS HAVE GOTTEN STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH THE
FORECAST OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY.

IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME EXACTLY HOW THE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT ON
THURSDAY... WHETHER THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST AND THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...OR IF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL JUST CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP. THE FORECAST WILL BE
A BIT VAGUE FOR THE TIME BEING WITH GENERALLY HIGH POPS. THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE GET MUCH/IF ANY DRY
WEATHER. WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 60S. WE COULD TAKE A RUN AT 70 OR BETTER IF IT WERE TO BECOME DRY
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO NEED A WIND ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR NORTHWEST OH.

THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
POINT.

LOOKS TO ME AS THOUGH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT COULD TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE A RAINY DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE YET ANOTHER TROUGH TO DEEPEN IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PUSH EAST THE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MID WEEK.

OVERALL...THE EXTENDED PERIODS APPEAR THEY WILL BE ACTIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS DOUBLE LOW PRESSURE PINWHEELS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND THEN TO MAINE BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SEND COLDER AIR SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SEND A STREAM OF
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

EVEN THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY COLD SO WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL RAP UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE LAKE
BUT THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS DROP
OFF CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GALES APPEAR LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS APPROACH 40 KNOTS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BELOW
GALES ON SUNDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

346 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
20S THIS EVENING (TEENS NW PA). WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
LATER AND AS WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO PICK UP...EVEN A FEW KNOTS...
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF OR BEGIN TO RISE A BIT...MAINLY WEST
OF I-71 AND NEAR THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S EAST AND NEAR FREEZING WEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

225 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES
THURSDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE
TEMPERATURES.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE DRY WEATHER AS FIRE DANGER INCREASES AGAIN IN A
LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE WILL BRING LOWER RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTER DECENT
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT FROM COLD LOWS. TWO FACTORS TO WATCH ARE THE
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT BELOW 850MB DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE POINTS TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WHERE MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR MAY NOT BE AS
EFFECTIVE...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER...AND RH
VALUES UP SLIGHTLY. ALSO...WITH THE CIRRUS INCREASING GRADUALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO...RH
VALUES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST OVER THE KANAWHA VALLEY...TUG
VALLEY...AND TRI STATE AREA.

USING PRIMARILY THE NAM FOR WINDS...WHICH TEND TO BE ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE...SHOULD SEE 15-20KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION.

AGAIN...SEVERAL FACTORS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WED NT...PICKING UP
SRN STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF IT. THIS INCREASES MOISTURE...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...DRIVEN
MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FORCING.

THE S/W TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THU...AS ANOTHER
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
NONETHELESS...STRONG INFLOW OUT OF THE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THU AS A WEAKENING
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.

THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT / PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS. RUC MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KTS THU AFTERNOON...KEPT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR LESS IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW. THE STRONG MOIST FLOW IN A MODEST NARROW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
ALSO WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INHERITED IN THE FCST.

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE FCST AREA THU NT...DRIVEN BY THE
SECOND S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE W AS A RESULT. THE SECOND S/W CROSSES FRI. KEPT
BUT SLOWED THE DEPICTION OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE ON FRI CODED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.

DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BY NT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WED AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20S...SO A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WED AFTERNOON. RIDGES WARM WED NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY 00Z SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY STILL AFFECTING THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE EXITING EAST. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...KEEPING COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO THAT BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN SECTION THAT COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. THEREFORE...CODED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS NUMBERS FOR
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AVIATION FORECAST. 15-20KT GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH A
WIND SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. USED VFR LINES IN THE TAF TO
REFLECT THE WIND SWITCHES DESPITE THE SHIFT OCCURRING BELOW 10KT
THRESHOLDS.

CIRRUS INCREASES WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH NO
CEILING BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT CHANGES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR IN RAIN THURSDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

145 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THURSDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE
TEMPERATURES.

USING PRIMARILY THE NAM FOR WINDS...WHICH TEND TO BE ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE...SHOULD SEE 15-20KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION.

AGAIN...SEVERAL FACTORS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.

DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE CROSSING THURSDAY AND THE
SECOND ONE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A LOW SFC BASED
CAPE...HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FACT THAT THE FRONT
PASSES AT NIGHT MAKE ME BELIEVE IT WILL LOOSE DIURNAL HEATING
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE...CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AVIATION FORECAST. 15-20KT GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH A
WIND SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. USED VFR LINES IN THE TAF TO
REFLECT THE WIND SWITCHES DESPITE THE SHIFT OCCURRING BELOW 10KT
THRESHOLDS.

CIRRUS INCREASES WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH NO
CEILING BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT CHANGES MAY VARY.

UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR IN RAIN THURSDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1251 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WAS
THINNING. LOOKING AT SOME WEB CAMS...IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS
ARE SEEING AT LEAST IN AND OUT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SLOWLY WARM AND WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING MIXED
LAYER...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX AWAY THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SKY FORECAST TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST...EVERYONE SHOULD BE CLEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST PA TO
AROUND 50/LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IS WILL BE SUNNY ALL
DAY. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO RESUME ACROSS THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE WARM UP AT 850 MB FROM 00Z WED THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. AFTER TEMPS TONIGHT GET BACK DOWN TO FREEZING...READINGS WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE NEXT LOW. THE
LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE S00 AT 12Z THURSDAY.
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST AFTER DARK TOMORROW AND THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REASON WHY NOT TO STICK
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS TO KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS. TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY AND
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. LI`S
BRIEFLY GET BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP SO WILL
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER VERY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB TEMPS GETTING
AS COLD AS NEG 6 FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. HAVE STAYED PRETTY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN THE CHANGING AIRMASSES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A COOL STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WE MAY VERY WELL
WARM UP ADEQUATELY ON SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH A GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
AS COLD AS IT WAS ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT STILL H8 TEMPS
AROUND -12C TO -14C AT THE THERMAL TROUGHS COLDEST POINT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME RA/SN SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT...BUT AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO BE FURTHER FROM US SO IS
THE BETTER MOISTURE. WILL KEEP THE LINGERING 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST COME MONDAY...AS WE SLOWLY RECOVER FROM
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S NW
PA/MAYBE REACH 40 NE OH. FORTIES ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED AND
ARE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INCREASES TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY EVENING AND A LIGHTER
WEST FLOW FOLLOWS. A COLD FRONT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1022 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES
REMAINED QUITE WARM...KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOL BUT A GREAT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE WINDS GO CALM
AND WITH CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD RADIATE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. MOST
AREAS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME SCATTERED BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.

DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE CROSSING THURSDAY AND THE
SECOND ONE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A LOW SFC BASED
CAPE...HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FACT THAT THE FRONT
PASSES AT NIGHT MAKE ME BELIEVE IT WILL LOOSE DIURNAL HEATING
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE...CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN OVERHEAD...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...BUT ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE VFR BY
NOON TODAY WITH THE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.

UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

630 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK BUT MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.

DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN OVERHEAD...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...BUT ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE VFR BY
NOON TODAY WITH THE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.

UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

454 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES
REMAINED QUITE WARM...KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOL BUT A GREAT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE WINDS GO CALM
AND WITH CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD RADIATE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. MOST
AREAS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME SCATTERED BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.

DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
CKB...EKN...BKW WHERE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 14
OR 15Z...POSSIBLY LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING AT
SITES KEKN AS TROUGH MOVES OUT LATER IN THE MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST. ALSO HAVE A 4 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT EKN THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR CONDITIONS
THERE...I AM NOT SO SURE THEY WILL DROP THAT LOW. HOWEVER...THEY
WILL AT LEAST BE LOW MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO 1K FEET.

DATE TUE 03/29/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE IS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER NE
AND N CNTRL OH. THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN IN A FEW
PLACES.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR PIX AND INSISTENCE OF LIGHT ACTIVITY ON THE
HRRR AND RAP WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT THEN
TAPER DOWN DURING THE LAST THIRD OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO WIN OUT.

STILL THINK THAT AS LONG AS THERE IS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON`T BE
ABLE TO DROP TO 32 SO NOT SEEING A THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIP.
LOWS GENERALLY 32 TO 35 EXCEPT AROUND 30 FOR INLAND NW PA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT INLAND AND GRADUALLY MIX AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 50 ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 NORTHWEST PA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING AND IT WILL GET CHILLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR
COULD BEGIN TO RISE ELSEWHERE AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A VARIETY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY MIXED WITH SOME SUNSHINE. OUR WARM UPS HAVE BEEN FAST
AND FURIOUS THIS SPRING AND WILL NOT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE OF LOWER
60S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLORADO LOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A NICE PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE
DEVELOPING JET AS A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. NO WAY TO KNOW HOW MUCH THINGS WILL
PHASE BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO FORECAST AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY THERE MAY BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE TIME OF DAY. HIGHS AT LEAST
IN THE MID 60S AND IT COULD BE ANOTHER OF THOSE DAYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES SNEAK TO 70 IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MEANS ONLY ONE THING FOR THE EAST. DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A
BROAD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS PRESENT ALONG WITH SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

UNFORTUNATELY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT AND WILL KEEP A MINIMAL
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...BY MONDAY...A
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT MODELS
SO FAR KEEP THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG WARM-UPS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR TO START...BUT SOME MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF A FEW
REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH. THE TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOR SKIES TO
CLEAR/STRATUS TO BREAK UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN DRIER AIR AND
MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD FORWARD PROGRESS TO THE CLEARING NOTED ON
SATELLITE THE LAST FEW HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
DAY...AND LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT ESE FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW GALES AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DISCONTINUED. I THINK THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 9 PM. LATER SHIFT CAN GO AHEAD AND DROP IT AS
APPROPRIATE. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND VARIABLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. COLD DOME WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS OVER LAND RATHER THAN OVER THE WATER. EVENTUALLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVERCOME THE COLD DOME
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS
FINALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SATURDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ148-149.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

859 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN A MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW. CHECKED
SEVERAL OBS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WHILE I COULD NOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, WE PROBABLY WON`T GET ANYTHING
MEASURABLE. THIS THOUGHT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
SHOWS NOTHING. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY LIGHT QPF THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS
LOWER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THE
DETAILS ON THIS ARE OUTLINE WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS ON THE WIND IMPACT. -PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BOTH KOTH AND KLMT COULD SEE SUSTAINED
WIND AROUND 30 KNOT. ELSEWHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH KMFR AND KRBG THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 21Z.
SHORT TERM MODELS BRING HIGHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ROSEBURG AREA
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND LCL IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER VFR OVERNIGHT. /FB

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT TUE 29 MAR 2016...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE START TIME OF 2 PM PDT DUE TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE
COAST. SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO FROM AROUND 5 TO 40 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST. A
LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE WAVE HEIGHT OF THIS SWELL TRAIN IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER 10 FEET. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH CHAOTIC BUT PERSISTENTLY MODERATE SEAS DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA TODAY. WINDS ARE
FAIRLY STRONG SURROUNDING THIS LOW WITH 700 MB WINDS NEAR 50 KT
EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY...AT NPWMFR...HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE KLAMATH
FALLS AND THE TULELAKE AREA. WINDS HAVE DE-COUPLED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT WITH THE STRONG LATE-MARCH SUN, EXPECT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED AND BREEZY AGAIN IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL 850 TEMPS ARE 4-5C HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY, SO WE SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OVER YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. THIS BRINGS MEDFORD AND
ROSEBURG INTO THE LOWER 60S AND KLAMATH FALLS AND ALTURAS INTO THE
LOWER 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY OVER THE EAST SIDE TODAY, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT.

THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND THEN PUSHES INTO
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WITH DRY
AIR AND A CLEAR SKY, WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WE`RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND OFFSHORE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR ALL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES BRIEFLY OFFSHORE. HIGHS FROM REEDSPORT TO BROOKINGS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING INLAND,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST SIDE.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, SO WE EXPECT DRYING OVER THE RIDGES WITH A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A CHILLY MORNING CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT A SURGE OF STRATUS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND MARINE AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE COAST. STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE BEACHES, BUT IF NOT THURSDAY,
THEN CERTAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE COOLER DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WILL
BE OVER INLAND AREAS. SO, IT WILL BE WARM AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH MID
60S OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

LONG TERM FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE REALLY WARM DAY ON FRIDAY
FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING TO THE
EAST FRIDAY, AND A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE, THIS FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN AT THE COAST FRIDAY, BUT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF US OVER THE WEEKEND AND OPEN THE DOOR TO
PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSUING SYSTEMS, SO WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH RAIN
OR SNOW, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO AROUND NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM OF ENOUGH SIGNIFICANCE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOON SUCH A SYSTEM ARRIVES. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL SHOWS ONE ON MONDAY, THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY, AND THE
CANADIAN WOULD HAVE RAIN BOTH DAYS. POPS FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST CLIMO. -WRIGHT

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1020 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HAVE TRIMMED THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TORNADO WATCH...WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING HAVE OCCURRED. DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
MEMPHIS... A WELL ORGANIZED MCV WAS MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE
DELTA. THIS FEATURE WAS ENCOUNTERING STRONGLY CAPPED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY LESS THAN 300 J/KG. BUT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WAS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED
LAYER. THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV WAS RESULTING IN WEAK MIDLEVEL
STORM ROTATION OVER PHILLIPS AND LEE COUNTY AR. MODEST USABLE LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY ASIDE... THE STRONG SHEAR UPSTREAM OF THE
MEMPHIS METRO PRECLUDED AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE REST OF
TORNADO WATCH 63. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THE TORNADO WATCH RUNNING THROUGH TO EXPIRATION.

MAIN OVERNIGHT THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLASH FLOODING... WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS SUPPLIED WITH ELEVATED MOIST INFLOW FROM A 50 TO 70
KT LOW LEVEL JET. OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT MAY PREVAIL FROM CHARLESTON
AND COAHOMA MS OVER TO HELENA/WEST HELENA...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY CAN EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN LA.

PWB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED THE AIR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS
AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ADVECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE 50S AND WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE 60S BY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY
ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS TO HOW THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST THINKING IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS IF STORMS
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.

THE TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AFTER THE INITIAL MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT BECOMES SEVERE ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
MEM... FOLLOWED RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND
TIMING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 02Z...WITH
STRONGER FORCING AROUND 05Z RESULTING IN INCREASED COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. BULK OF TSRA EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE MEM TRACON BY
OVERNIGHT OUTBOUND PUSH.

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

805 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR TREND REFRAINS FROM ANY APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST. JUST SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS ARE IN PLAY ACROSS WESTERN TN. HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO
TEMPORALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND MOST OF IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE
REDUCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FOR THE PRE MIDNIGHT
PERIOD. REMAINDER OF FCST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...EXCEPT MAY
NEED TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A TOUCH.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS/IFR VSBYS WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE MID STATE REGION AS WX SYSTEM APPROACHES. SEVERAL ADMS
TO TAF FORECASTS MORE THAN LIKELY 31/06Z-31/24Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOWING MAIN SWATH OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO MID STATE AFTER 31/10Z...
W TO E...WITH AT LEAST SOME MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE...MOVING EWD
ACROSS MID STATE AND EXITING MID STATE BY AROUND 31/16Z.. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SFC FRONT AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE AROUND 31/21Z...
PROGRESSING EWD THRU 31/24Z. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUANCE WILL
SUPPORT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED 10KT-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT TIMES.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH IN ABOVE MENTIONED BREAKAGE TIMING...
AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES KICKING IN...CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AT LEAST
TSTM DEVELOPMENT 31/16Z-31/21Z...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
MENTIONING. WILL LOOK TOWARD FUTURE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS
FOR ADDITIONAL CLARIFICATION WITH MORE SPECIFICITY IN FORECAST POSSIBLE
BY 31/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

651 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

623 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

A FAIRLY ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF
MARCH AND WELCOME APRIL...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS BEING
EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...NOT TO
MENTION SOME TRICKY TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER WAVE WORKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS OF 17Z. QUITE THE
AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDERWAY SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE...WITH EARLIER
30S DEWPOINTS REPLACED BY VALUES RISING THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND POKING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...
WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE
EVENT THOUGH WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST TOUCHING FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. EARLIER PUSH OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...DRIVEN BY
A NICE SURGE OF 925-700MB MOISTURE ADVECTION....HAS EXITED WELL TO
THE EAST...WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT SAVE FOR A FEW
SPITS OF DRIZZLE AT TIMES AS WE IN "NO MAN`S LAND" AND AWAIT
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SUCH THINGS...STARTING TO SEE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FIRE OFF OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THROUGH
19-21Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...JUST IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH THAT ACTIVITY PERHAPS MERGING AND
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STILL NOT
SEEING MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY TIED TO A NOTABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER LAID
OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...THOUGH CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO CLIPPING NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE THE WARM SECTOR MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH TOWARD
01-04Z. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...WITH 1-2+
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER PROGGED BUT
THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE WARM SECTOR AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...CAN ENVISION PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS LAYING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO MAYBE HALF OF THE
CWA WITHIN A SECONDARY ZONE OF MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THAT STUFF MAY WELL STICK AROUND RIGHT ON INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS
THE FGEN AXIS GRADUALLY PIVOTS NORTHWARD...WANING FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AND LOSS OF FORCING/MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THAT DEPARTING FEATURE...WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FAST ON ITS HEELS...DROPPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FIRST THING THURSDAY BEFORE ROUNDING THE TROUGH
BASE AND SKIRTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA. STILL SOME QUESTION
ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WILL OCCUR WITH THAT
WAVE...BUT CHANCES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW
LOOK IN ORDER...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A DUSTING IN SPOTS.

THEREAFTER...LOOKING LIKE A BRIEF RETURN TO A MUCH COOLER REGIME
INTO SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN FULL CONTROL. WILL BE
WATCHING YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THAT TROUGH...BUT PER
RECENT TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT MAY BE MORE OF AN EASTERN WISCONSIN/
GREAT LAKES PROBLEM WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE JUST SKIRTING
BY TO THE EAST. STILL...IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
WITHIN A TIGHT GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING INTO 40-45 KNOTS OF FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T LIKE THE SOUND OF THAT? WE MAY WELL TRY TO ABRUPTLY
CHANGE THE WEATHER FOR SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT SETTING UP NEARBY. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THAT FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT PARTS OF THE AREA
COULD SNEAK INTO SOME RATHER WARM AIR FOR A TIME...BUT IT`S ALSO
JUST AS LIKELY THAT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. IT IS ALWAYS INTERESTING TO SEE A 30+ DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A PARTICULAR
DAY...AND THAT IS INDEED THE CASE FOR SUNDAY - IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY. GUT FEELING GIVEN THE PATTERN IS SOMEONE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL SPIKE WELL INTO THE 50S TO MAY EVEN LOWER 60S WHILE NORTHERN
SPOTS MAY WELL BE STUCK WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE 30S/40S. STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE CLASSIC EARLY APRIL "ROLLER COASTER" PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
EARLY WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR LOOKING ON TAP BY
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT. COULD
ULTIMATELY END UP SEEING A TOUCH OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WITH THAT
FEATURE FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLY TEMPS TO START THE WORK WEEK...
ESPECIALLY IF WE REMAIN STUCK IN LOWER CLOUD COVER. HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK...FOR NOW AT LEAST THINGS LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPS GRADUALLY REBOUNDING UPWARD. IT
DOES APPEAR WE WILL HOLD IN A RATHER ACTIVE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP TOWARD THE VERY TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKE
THEIR APPROACH...THOUGH OF COURSE EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP AS THE FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND UNDER
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO IMPACT
KRST EARLY THIS EVENING AND KLSE BY MID EVENING BRINGING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR. THE 31.21Z HRRR AND 31.18 CR-NAM NEST
SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE PAST BOTH TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING FOR A RAIN FREE PERIOD OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CEILINGS COMING
DOWN TO IFR. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 31.18Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KRST SUGGESTS IT
COULD GET COOL ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE SHOWERS
END...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE
VISIBILITY RETURNING TO VFR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA...DEPOSITING A THIRD TO
HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT WITH NOT MUCH RAIN FALLING DOWN INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THAT`S PROBABLY A GOOD THING WITH OUR
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
TARGET THOSE LATTER AREAS TONIGHT WITH A GENERAL 1 TO MAYBE
LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN. OVERALL...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THAT AMOUNT OF WATER WITH JUST SOME IN-BANK RISES ON THE
RIVERS...BUT OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...GIVEN TRENDS FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINS AND CURRENT FORECASTS...HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH AND BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE...
THOUGH HONESTLY JUST HOW CLOSE WE COME TO FLOOD STAGE WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG MERIDIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT OVER MONTANA/IDAHO...FEEDING ENERGY BOTH
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO INTO FRACTURED TROUGH ENERGY
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MULTIPLE IMPULSES ARE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SOUTHWEST
TROUGH...SUPPORTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
OHIO/TN VALLEYS TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES.

A FAST ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF ALL THE CONVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW INVADING OUR SKIES THIS
MORNING.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY POCKETS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A
DEEP SPRING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL
BE THIS AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE.

HOWEVER...CURRENTLY THE REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED AT THE SURFACE BY
A LARGE AREA OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IS KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR ARE CLEAR WITH CLOUDS MAINLY OF THE HIGH
LEVEL VARIETY.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET/BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MOST OF THE WEATHER
"ACTION" WILL BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

TODAY... QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE A SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ONSHORE
OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS
AFTER 17Z. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOP AND MAKE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS...CONDITIONS TO DO APPEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG IT. MOISTURE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS WILL FAVOR A
SUPPRESSIVE COLUMN WITHIN A ZONE OF NVA BEHIND A WEAK DEPARTING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. NORMALLY AGGRESSIVE CAM GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE EVEN HAVING
ISSUES SUPPORTING SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN FEW VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE BELOW 10% AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY... QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
(TO OUR NORTH) LOOKS TO BECOME ENERGIZED BY A SERIES OF PASSING
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES...WITH RAIN/CONVECTION BLOSSOMING FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL SHOW MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS WE WAIT FOR THE EVENTUAL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TO DRIVE THIS FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INCLEMENT WEATHER INTO THE PENINSULA. SO...PATTERN SUPPORTS A DRY
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE...NEUTRAL COLUMN IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPRESSION...AND A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE
INTERIOR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF THE I-
75 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN CAM
GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AND INHERITED FORECAST AROUND 30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR INTERIOR ZONES STILL SEEMS APPROPRIATE. HEADING
BACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...RAIN CHANCES TAPER TO LESS
THAN 10% FOR THE BEACHES. DOES LOOK TO BE A CLOSE CALL ON SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...HOWEVER
ENSEMBLE APPROACH SUGGESTS FRONTAL FOCUS AND DEEP LAYER QG FORCING
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING. FOR CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CHIEFLAND AREA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY MORNING.

ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
FOG GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SREF ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
TIME...AND AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD...THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET LATE IN THE SEASON FOR SEAFOG AS
THE SHELF WATERS BEGIN TO WARM UP...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
DEWPOINT SURGE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-FOG OVER
COOLER SST POCKETS. LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE AND LATEST SPORT SST
ANALYSIS WOULD TEND TO SIDE WITH THE CONCLUSION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL A BIT SHORT OF SEA-FOG THRESHOLDS. WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG TO
THE LAND GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND PATCHY
FOG TO THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...BUT STOP
SHORT OF PREDICTION DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND ACROSS BAJA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
CREEPS TOWARD FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH A
DRIER COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC. ON MONDAY ROBUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE STATE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS RENOURISHES THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLING IN
BEHIND. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS ALREADY MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
MID-WEST BRINING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN AROUND KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER
ANY LIGHT FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO
FRIDAY AS FLOW MAKES IT WAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

FOG POTENTIAL..AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 70 85 72 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 86 69 87 71 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 87 68 89 71 / 10 0 20 10
SRQ 79 69 79 72 / 0 0 10 20
BKV 85 67 86 71 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 81 71 83 73 / 0 0 10 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP FOR TODAY. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE CWFA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING. THE ARW/WRF ARE QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE HRRR (WHICH ONLY GOES THROUGH 20Z). THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY A BIT
MORE SHOWERY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE WRF/ARW HAVE A LOT MORE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH SEVERAL BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. IF THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDS...THEN THE HRRR LOOKS A BIT MORE REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...IF BREAKS START TO FORM IN THE STRATUS...SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH AND THE WRF/ARW SOLUTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA REMAINS
FAIRLY FREE OF THE STRATUS PLAGUING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWFA. THIS MAY GIVE THE ATMOS TIME TO DESTABILIZE A BIT LONGER IN
THIS AREA.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PROGGING THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA DURING
MIDDAY. THE GFS HOLDS IT TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT DO
THINK ANY COLD POOL WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DO THINK THERE IS SOME GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...BUT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
EXPECTED COULD MUDDY THE WATERS A BIT DECREASING THE POTENTIAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY. DO THINK THERE MAY
BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
SHOULD ROUGHLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN A BIT TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAY
DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FIRE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HAVENT SEEN THIS MUCH
UPPER LEVEL/JET DYNAMICS IN A LONG WHILE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY.

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE
STATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND IMPACTS ARE LARGELY
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH GEORGIA AS BEST
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FEW TIERS OF
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES GA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL GA. ATMOS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE TREND
CONTINUES FOR THIS MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN NUDGED
UPWARDS A BIT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
TIMING FOR THUNDER AT ATL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE CIGS THIS
MORNING...MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING CIGS TO GO AS LOW...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE 010 SO WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER.
WINDS MAY TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SW SIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 70 80 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 70 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 70 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 70 60 30
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 60 80 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 70 60 30
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 50 60 80 70
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 70 50 20
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 70 80 40
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 30 40 80 90

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...
EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PEACH...
PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

421 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

COMPLICATED NR TERM OWING TO ARCH OF UPSTREAM CONVN DVLPG FM EC
MO THROUGH SW IL WITHIN LL THETA-E BULGE ALG NOSE OF INCREASING
LLJ. BULK OF NR TERM CAMS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH
SUNRISE PRIMARILY THROUGH NW HALF. MEANWHILE SHRA ASSOCD/W WKNG
MCV LIFTING THROUGH SW MI ATTM CONT TO WANE.

BULK OF MORNING ACTIVITY XPCD TO LIFT OUT ACRS WRN PORTIONS BY 14Z
AND DIMINISH THROUGH NW OH BFR NOON. ATTN THEN TURNS WWD TO
INCOMING SHARP CDFNT TRAILING FM MODESTLY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
CROSSING NRN LWR MI. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WRT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR RECOVERY WITHIN CLD CONTAMINATED WARM
SECTOR. WHILE NARROW PREFNTL THETA-E RIDGING UNDER ERODED EML
STILL DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SPRT THUNDER...STG 0-6KM SHEAR WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED CAPE WOULD SUGGEST CB GROWTH STRUGGLES.
HWVR ASSUMING RAP TRENDS CORRECT...LG HAIL/ISOLD WIND RISK CAN BE
XPCD OVR WRN INDIANA ZONES LT THIS AFTN IN PROXIMITY TO MODEL
DERIVED AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS PERIOD THAT RUNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH A NUMBER OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THIS VERY COLD AIR AFTER
PASSAGE CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON NIGHTS AFTER PASSAGE TO DROP WELL
DOWN INTO THE 20S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
ANY SNOW OR RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. TWO MORE OF THESE CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY...AND THEN THE
NEXT ONE TWO DAYS LATER BY WEDNESDAY. THE TRACKS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF EACH SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

VARIABLE FLT CONDS TO START AS DECAYING MCV OVR NW IN LIFTS NE INTO
MI AND SHRA ACRS THE TERMINALS DIMINISH. HWVR INCREASING LL MSTR
FLUX WITHIN STG LLJ WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS OVR SRN IL TO EXPAND NEWD
OVERLAPPING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER INCREASING
PREFNTL MIXING AHD OF SHARP CDFNT WILL SCOUR LWR CIGS OUT TO VFR
W/CONDL THREAT FOR STORMS LT THIS AFTN. LLWS WILL PEAK PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AS HEART OF LLJ TRANSLATES NE AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
THROUGH MID MORNING AS CORRESPONDING SFC GRADIENT PICKS UP W/SWRLY
SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS LIKELY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T

VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

347 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED AN EXITING 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A 995MB LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA. A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO TEXAS BIG BEND. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5MB
WAS PRESENT FROM BTR TO MOB. AS A RESULT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WERE
OCCURRING. ISOTACH ANALYSIS SHOWED THE NOSE OF 140 KNOT SUB-
TROPICAL JET FROM TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA...FORECAST AREA
IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR NOW. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 850MB SHOWED
A LLJ OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...40 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AT 00Z
SHOWED A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES FROM
NORTHWEST GULF TO WEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
FINALLY...THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM
IOWA TO ARIZONA WITH DISTURBANCES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
OVER ARIZONA. 18

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE AXIS AND LLJ WILL MIGRATE EAST AND YIELDING 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES OVER 400 TO 500 M/S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
FLORIDA PARISHES OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL INCREASE TO 1800 J/KG BY SUNRISE WITH
A SLIGHT LAG BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME SPIN
UPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ERGO...AGREE WITH TOR WATCH THROUGH 9
AM FOR NORTH HALF ZONES EXCLUDING MS COAST. WORKED OVER ATM MAY
YIELD A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD SCATTERED
SOUTH TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FOR NORTH ZONES.

WIND PROFILE BECOMES SOUTHWEST FROM SURF TO 500MB AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING LL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE NORTH ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FOCUS OF THE FRONT
AND SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL YIELD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH FRIDAY.

POST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE VERY LITTLE PUSH TO THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE IN PLAY. WILL
GO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TOTAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 2 INCHES FALL IN AN HOUR OR SO
OR 3 TO 4 INCHES IN A COUPLE HOURS WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PONDING OF WATER OR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SLIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT. 18

.LONG TERM...

WEEKEND THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND MOSTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 18

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 FEET WILL
BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT AVIATION WISE TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND KBTR...KHDC...AND KMCB THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE..INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND LESS OF THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER DOWN TO AROUND
300 TO 500 FEET BY 06Z...AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE ELEVATED INVERSION DIPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG THAT TRIES TO FORM AFTER 06Z AS WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ONE MILE. THE LOW LIFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TONIGHT. 32

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS DUE TO
CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF
UP TO 8 FEET. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS IS ANTICIPATED. THESE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD FALL FROM EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
RAPIDLY. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 32

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 62 74 50 / 70 70 70 50
BTR 82 64 74 52 / 60 70 80 40
ASD 80 68 75 56 / 60 70 90 60
MSY 82 68 75 58 / 60 80 100 50
GPT 78 68 76 56 / 70 80 100 70
PQL 80 68 74 56 / 70 80 100 70

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ056>070.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-071-072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ080>082.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER AROUND
21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.

ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER ROBUST AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50KTS. VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 27-31C AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PUSHING 8C/KM. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ALSO SHOW SOME POCKETS OF 50KTS 80M WINDS...WHICH
SUGGEST SOLID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20. LARGE HAIL
PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SIZES UP TO 2 INCHES OR LARGER POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL...THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO DOES
HELICITY WITH VALUES AROUND 200-300M2/S2 0-1KM AND 200-500M2/S2
0-3KM. IN ADDITION...THE SIG TOR PARAMETER DEPICTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 4...WHICH WHEN LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN
GRADIENT THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTUAL OCCURRENCE...THIS WOULD
PLACE IT ACROSS AGAIN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK.

IN TERMS OF THE FLOODING RISK...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER OUR REGION AND IS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE
99TH TO MAX PERCENTILES PER THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PW VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AGAIN THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS COUNTIES
NORTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN TACT BUT FEEL THE BEST
AREA FOR FLOODING AT LEAST FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND MAY
ADJUST HAZARDS AND GRAPHICS TO REFLECT THIS CONFIDENCE. THROUGH
TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING/OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH LOOKS FEASIBLE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE MOST ROBUST STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND 9-10PM
OR SO BUT THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
LINGERING/STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BELT. GIVEN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE AS DEPICTED BY
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG...VERTICAL TOTALS STILL AROUND 28-30C
AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE IT COMPLETELY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT IT
IS UNCERTAIN JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OR HOW FAST OR SLOW
IT MAY GET THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN TO LINGER
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER BY
THAT POINT WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DRYING BY EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. /28/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 80 59 73 49 / 73 70 42 32
MERIDIAN 78 61 74 49 / 88 73 56 42
VICKSBURG 80 58 71 49 / 84 63 28 23
HATTIESBURG 79 66 72 52 / 86 63 79 60
NATCHEZ 80 61 71 49 / 79 58 51 40
GREENVILLE 78 54 68 46 / 85 53 20 21
GREENWOOD 79 54 71 45 / 86 80 21 20

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

28/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Some scattered convection continues as a vigorous shortwave over
eastern KS/Neb shifts ne into IA this morning. A sfc cold front that
extends from eastern IA-nw MO-eastern KS will move through the
cwfa this morning. Better low level moisture advection has already
been shunted off to the south and east of our area, but some
lingering convection will continue over the next few hours, mainly
over the eastern cwfa. Some updrafts have been briefly capable of
very small hail at times with some modest mucape of around 500
j/kg over southern MO.

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

Moderately gusty winds will veer to the west behind the front
bringing in the leading edge of a dry and cooler air mass. We are
still looking at some fairly warm highs today, especially over
the eastern cwfa with some highs pushing 80 deg F. Will need to
watch for a uptick in convection along the front over the far
eastern cwfa today, but most guidance keeps more robust convection
off to our east and southeast.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

It doesn`t look like we will need frost headlines tonight but
some patchy frost may be possible. General guidance keeps lows in
the 37-41 deg F range. Smaller wind protected low lying
microclimates will likely get a little lower. Overall winds look
to stay up enough to limit the extent of the temperature drop and
frost potential.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Better chances for a frost or light freeze look to be Fri
night/Sat morning. The shot of colder air will keep highs highs
in the 50s to near 60 Fri with gusty northwest winds. A very dry air
mass and lighter winds will allow temperatures to drop into the
low-mid 30s by daybreak Sat. The sfc pressure pattern is not ideal
for a total bottoming out of low temperatures with winds backing
and picking up a bit late in the night, but straight NAM and GFS
MOS guidance have lows near 32 deg F. The air mass is quite dry,
so frost may not be widespread in open areas. Will have a few more
shifts to look at this.

Otherwise, it looks quite dry for a few days with a general mid
level nw flow pattern. We will see a nice rebound in temperatures
over the weekend, especially Sunday with ssw winds. A weak dry
frontal passage is expected Monday. There is pretty good agreement
in the placement of synoptic scale features even by day 7 /Wed
with another more substantial sfc low over the upper Midwest with
a trailing front moving through our area. There won`t be much
moisture to work with but consensus guidance does indicate at
least some low probability rain chances.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Pilots flying into the southwest Missouri airports will need to
monitor radar trends over the next couple of hours. Storms will
eventually exit the region, setting the stage for dry conditions
on Thursday.

Meanwhile, fog had developed at the Branson airport, where
visibilities have dropped to one quarter of a mile. We think this
fog will persist through most of the night. Springfield and Joplin
are not likely to receive this dense fog.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Prefrontal storms to exit forecast area by 12z, then redevelopment
will depend on how much the atmosphere can recharge. By 15z, the
cold front will be just west of metro area, so could begin to see
redevelopment between 15z and 18z over east central/southeast MO and
southwestern IL. By 18z, MU capes will be in excess of 1500 J/kg
ahead of front with decent low level buoyancy and 50+kt mid level
jet. So could see some isolated/scattered severe thunderstorms along
and east of Mississippi River this afternoon, with main threat
being large hail, though damaging winds and isolated tornado not out
of the question. As for high temps, will depend on speed of cold
front, cloud cover and winds. Should range from around 60 far north
to the upper 70s over east central/southeast MO and southwestern
IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Cold front to exit forecast area by 00z Friday with showers and
thunderstorms moving out by 03z. Secondary shortwave to slide
through region during the day Friday. Could see some scattered
showers with this mainly over northeast MO/west central IL late
tonight through Friday afternoon.

Colder air to filter in with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s on
Friday. Some concern about frosty conditions for portions of area
Friday night and again Saturday night after another frontal boundary
moves through Saturday afternoon. Temps to dip down into the low to
mid 30s both nights. Will have to keep an eye on this for any
possible headlines. Another issue will be the winds behind this
front with gusts to between 25 and 40 mph from the northwest before
diminishing Saturday evening.

Otherwise, another weak cold front to slide through region on Monday
with some scattered showers possible for eastern portions of
forecast area. Extended models continue to bring another system
through region Tuesday night and Wednesday, so kept mention of
showers through this period. As for temps, will see highs moderate a
bit for Sunday, then back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, before
warming up some next Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will
continue moving east and impact the St. Louis terminals in the
07-09z period. Otherwise we should see lower ceilings continue to
develop across the region and become more widespread overnight,
lowering flight conditions to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end
IFR. A strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into
early Thursday morning. A cold front will move across the area
from mid-morning into the afternoon on Thursday. Winds will be
gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the front
and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close to or
just east of metro St. Louis. Otherwise flight conditions should
improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and west.

Specifics for KSTL:

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in central MO will
continue moving east and impact KSTL in the 07-09z period.
Otherwise low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR flight conditions
due to stratus will persist overnight into Thursday morning. A
strong southerly LLJ will also bring LLWS conditions into early
Thursday morning. A cold front will move through KSTL near 19z. Winds
will be gusty and shift to the southwest with the approach of the
front and then to the west in its wake. The front may trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the 17-19z time frame close
to or just east of the terminal. Otherwise flight conditions
should improve to VFR with the wind shift to the southwest and
west.

Glass
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 40 10 10 5
Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 30 20 30 5
Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5
Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5
Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5
Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 50 10 10 5

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Effective cold front is moving through the area as of 0730Z and
triggering a few showers and thunderstorms along it. Latest
mesoanalysis shows a low CAPE, high shear environment with plenty of
inhibition and up to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. So the threat of
anything severe early this AM is very small. But there have been
brief cores with these storms to around 20K feet. Thinking that
heights to around 22K feet would be needed to start thinking of
severe hail but given some of the strong reflectivities, slight
drops in CC, and the depth the cores are making it to, pockets of
small hail are likely over the next few hours. The strong inhibition
will make it very difficult to mix wind to the surface despite the
extremely strong winds aloft.

For the rest of the AM and into the afternoon, light showers are
expected in the cold advection side of the cold front. Also, with
clouds and northwesterly winds, there will only be a small diurnal
warmup and we may be able to climb back into the lower 60s, which is
actually normal anyway.

Another shortwave will move through the northwesterly flow Friday and
bring a chance for rain to far northern Missouri. But the main effect
will be to reinforce the cooler temperatures so that we`ll likely see
below normal highs on Friday and then potential sub-freezing
temperatures for Saturday morning. It may not be until Sunday, when
low-level flow returns to a southerly fetch, that temperatures
rebound back to above normal levels. By Sunday, temperatures look to
climb into the mid to perhaps upper 70s depending on how deep the
mixing is and whether it can tap into the warm temperatures advecting
aloft. This rollercoaster of ups and downs continues for the
remainder of the forecast. A series of upper shortwaves will progress
through the flow with each associated surface front bringing cooler
air into the region. Fortunately, the flow is progressive and low
level flow quickly returns to the south. But there may be several
mornings late next week that flirt with not just freezing
temperatures, but temperatures in the mid 20s. This would have a much
greater impact on the area than even a week ago as we progress
through the Spring vegetation emergence.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm
threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO
to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage
of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding
suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side
of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE
so it`s certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend
if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much
of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could
also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and
west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of
a secondary cold front.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Expect the next round of convection to spread east from eastern
Kansas into southwestern Missouri into the evening as an upper
level trough transitions into the Plains. A dry line across
central Kansas is not progged to be as progressive and move more
slowly eastward. Storms that have formed along the dry this
afternoon will shift east off of the dry line into southeastern
Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this evening. The
potential exist for severe storms but the window geographically
and temporarily is somewhat limited due to a relatively narrow
axis of instability. The storms will encounter a more stable
environment farther east into the Missouri Ozarks.

Therefore expect the greatest risk for severe weather generally
along and west of I-49 late this afternoon and evening with
lessening risk for severe storms farther east into the Missouri
Ozarks. However still expect a good coverage of showers and storms
with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Localized
flooding issues may materialize where storms train over the same
locations.

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

A cool airmass will settle into the region late in the week
bringing the potential for frost or freezing temperatures Friday
night. The next front with a chance of rainfall will arrive the
middle of next week.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet
another chance for precip.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1230 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
WILL IMPACT KBIS WITHIN A FEW HOURS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 06 AND 18 UTC. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW IS LIKELY
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ040-041-043-
044.

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1137 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION
CONCERNING PCPN POTENTIAL. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

WITH EXCEPTION OF THE DVL TAF HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR AND PCPN
FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT PCPN POTENTIAL
WEST WITH ANY PCPN LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST. DID MENTION A TEMPO GROUP AT DVL IN THE AM AS PCPN BAND
SLIDES SOUTH AND MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF LOWER CIGS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:

1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.

TVT

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GREATEST COVERAGE AT
MEM LIKELY THROUGH 08Z. FOLLOWING A MORNING BREAK...LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE AND BECOME UNCAPPED TO TSRA
FORMATION BY 18Z.

PWB

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH LOW
END MVFR OR UPPER END IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY DROP INTO LOW END IFR AND LIFR THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN SATURATED. SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH ROUGHLY 10Z AT KDRT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z...BRINGING RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND
VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP
COVERAGE AS SCT AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

UPDATE... /ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE/

RAIN CHANCES WERE NUDGED DOWN ONLY GENTLY AS THE 00Z NAM STILL
SHOWS A QPF PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MENTION OF THUNDER HAS BE DOWNPLAYED TO JUST PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF DEEP SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS
WITH A DRYLINE AHEAD OF IT. OVER OUR CWA WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE BOTH
AROUND FIVE TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD AND
THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE THROUGH OUR
AREA BY AROUND NOON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW...CONFINED
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL TO OUR WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS TEXAS AND DRY OUT OUR FORECAST. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
PUSH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AND KEEP THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 55 69 46 74 / 20 10 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 53 70 44 73 / 20 10 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 56 72 46 74 / 20 10 20 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 52 65 42 72 / 10 10 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 57 73 47 74 / 0 20 10 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 52 67 42 73 / 20 10 20 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 55 73 44 74 / 0 20 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 54 71 46 73 / 20 10 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 56 74 47 72 / 30 10 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 57 71 47 74 / 10 20 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 59 74 48 75 / 10 20 20 10 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO...MEDINA...UVALDE...ZAVALA.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

406 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...LEADING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

TRENDING SLOWER WITH TIMING OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
TWO MAIN REASONS FOR ADJUSTING THE TIMING ARE THE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WHICH TYPICALLY SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A BOUNDARY AND THE FRONT IS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF.

MODELS SHOWING BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LEADING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE. BETTER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY ARRIVES AFTER NOON AS THE SHOWERS IN
TENNESSEE MOVE EAST...THEN THE LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHES THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOW.

BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF HEATING TODAY...WHICH MAY DESTABILIZED
AIRMASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE INTENSE STORMS BY THE TIME THE
LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL MEAN BETTER SURFACE BASED CAPE IF THERE IS
DECENT HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
TRAVEL EAST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW OR STALL AS A WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SLOWED BY THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
IN GENERAL...SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
SLIGHT DELAY IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION
OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES FROM THE MID
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 IN THE PIEDMONT. FREEZE OR FROST
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CURRENT PROGRAM REGION OF
SENSITIVITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A LOW/TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THIS FEATURE...BRINGING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH OUR
REGION. ALSO...THIS REGIME WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING THAT EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
OCCASIONS WHERE FREEZE OR FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE CURRENT REGION OF SENSITIVITY - MONDAY MORNING...AND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. REGIONS TO WATCH FOR FREEZE OR
FROST CONDITIONS ARE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SMYTH COUNTY VIRGINIA...AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY
SOUTH OF ROANOKE...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
REGION OF VIRGINIA.

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z/8AM...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST AN MVFR CIG WILL DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER 09Z/5AM. ALREADY SEEING SPREAD OF THIS LOWER LAYER OF
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE. DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...NOT
CONFIDENT ON MVFR COVERAGE...SO KEPT CIGS JUST ABOVE 3KFT FOR ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT KBCB.

LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY RIDGE TOP WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
PROTECTED UNTIL MIXING BEGINS THURSDAY.

LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TODAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
APPEARS IN ORDER FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN TO VFR ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

SURFACE LOW AT 31.08Z ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IA WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONCURRENTLY...A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WI BY 12Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS...A NARROW BAND
OF MODEST 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET-UP ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
ALBERT LEA MN TO MEDFORD WI...BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THROUGH 18Z AND
THEN DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...SOME SCATTERED RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRIMARY 500 HPA TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE 40S.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FREEZING MARK...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANGE
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON
ELEVATED/GRASSY SURFACES (HALF INCH OR LESS) WHERE SNOW FALLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING
THAT REMAINING PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SWATH OF PRECIP ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN MI.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE PLENTY COLD FOR ALL SNOW GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS MOST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT UP TO AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF FRIDAY NIGHT/S SURFACE LOW...WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING WINDY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST 35 TO
45 KTS IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE ON SUNDAY. FOR THIS SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TO ABOUT THE I-94 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S. TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. ANY
PRECIP IS AGAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHERN WI. MONDAY LOOKS DRY
AND COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

RIDGING ALOFT TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ROBUST
PACIFIC WAVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PLENTY WARM FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP...BUT
WEDNESDAY IN PARTICULAR COULD BE ANOTHER RATHER WET DAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND WILL OVERSPREAD BOTH TAF SITES BEFORE OR RIGHT AROUND
06Z. THE 31.03Z HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD MOVE PAST BOTH SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TO MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LAST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
WILL SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND BASED ON
THE 31.00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING...IT SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS AS ALL RAIN WITH NO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT KRST. THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN END AROUND 18Z OR SO.
EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LAST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY. THE VISIBILITY SHOULD QUICKLY COME
UP TO VFR BUT LOOK FOR THE CEILINGS TO MAKE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AND
STAY MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NAM EVEN SUGGESTS THAT THE
CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT THURSDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL
LET LATER FORECASTS ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THIS.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THE BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE AND THE
YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH BASED ON THE RAIN THAT HAD FALLEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE PANNED OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED...
AND INDEED RIVERS ARE SHOWING SOME RISES. BUT THE RESPONSE HAS NOT
BEEN QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS ANTICIPATED ON THESE WATER COURSES...SO
WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH FLOOD LEVELS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. WE WILL
GET A BETTER GRASP ON THAT LATER THIS MORNING AS MORE RAIN REPORTS
AND ADDITIONAL RIVER DATA ARE RECEIVED. OTHERWISE...THE IMPACTS WILL
PRIMARILY BE ONLY WITHIN-BANK RISES. WE WILL SEE MORE LIGHT RAIN
TODAY...BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE EXCESSIVE TO SUGGEST MORE
LOCATIONS WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...MW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1052 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

A VERY CHILLY PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...SOME
WINTRY.

THE UPPER PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS QUITE AMPLIFIED...AND DOMINATED
BY STG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW IS
SPLIT...WITH THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENERGETIC SRN
STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE WRN RIDGE WL LOSE AMPLITUDE DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM CONSOLIDATION OF THE FLOW IS
LIKELY AS VERY STG NWLY SPEED MAX DIGS SE ACRS CANADA AND INTO THE
ERN CONUS. ONCE THAT FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...A GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE
THE WRN RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD.

TEMPS WL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE
REBOUNDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS LATE. THE COLDEST DAYS LOOK
TO BE SAT/SUN/MON...WHEN MOST AREAS WON/T BE ABLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY END UP ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING WITH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI
AND THE CENTRAL U.P. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXITING NORTHEAST WI...WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. THINK WILL SEE A
LULL IN THE PRECIP BEHIND THE WAVE AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG IT.
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
LOW...SHOULD SEE FGEN RAMP UP IN A REGION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVING INTO THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE MESOMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL MOSTLY FALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH AN
AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY GRAZE THE WINNEBAGO THROUGH KEWAUNEE
COUNTY AREAS. A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI TONIGHT...WHICH RIVERS SHOULD BE OK TO
HANDLE...UNLESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND BOOST RAINFALL FURTHER.
THINK CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING IS PRETTY LOW...BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY
LINE. OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE FAR NORTH TO LOW
40S IN THE SOUTH.

THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO NORTHERN LOW MICHIGAN. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN
BEHIND THE LOW AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL FGEN INCREASES
AGAIN WITHIN A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
PRECIP LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AS MIXED PRECIP CHANGES TO ALL SNOW...2-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER
HIGH CONCERNING LOCATION OF THE BAND...AND ALSO THE IMPACTS ON
ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID
30S. SINCE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL AFTER THE MORNING
COMMUTE...HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED IF THE COMMA HEAD
DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...THINK PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG-TERM WILL BE TIED TO SHRTWVS
RIDING SEWD IN THE STRENGTHENING NWLY UPR FLOW. AS SUCH...TIMING
OF THE EVENTS IS LIKELY TO SHIFT SOME WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE SUITE
OF MODEL RUNS.

PCPN WITH WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL WV COULD LINGER PAST 00Z FRIDAY...
THOUGH IT SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. IT WL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A RACE TO SEE WHETHER COLDER AIR ARRIVES QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO CHG PCPN TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS IN E-C WI...BUT EVEN IF
A CHANGEOVER OCCURS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER OR NOT A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
CROSSING THE REGION LATE THU NGT/FRI WL GENERATE PCPN. FORCING IS
NOT VERY FOCUSED...SO CARRIED CHC POPS MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHICH
FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE ECMWF.

SHRTWV IN LFQ OF INTENSE UPPER SPEED MAX WL DIG SE ACRS THE REGION
LATE FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DEEPENING
CYCLONE THAT WL TRACK ACRS NRN WI. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE
N/NE...IN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE N. BUT THINK THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THE SYSTEM WL BE WIND. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT...ESP DURING THE AFTN...AS VERY DEEP
MIXING COMBINES WITH STG SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CAA. WL BEGIN
MENTIONING THE WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
SYSTEM SLIDING ESEWD ACRS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NGT WL BE TRACKING
ALONG VERY STG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COULD BE A PROLIFIC SNOW
PRODUCER. WARM AIR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SEEMS TO HAVE A WAY OF
MAKING IT A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN EARLY MODEL RUNS INDICATE...SO
SUSPECT BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE N. BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SYSTEM ENDS UP PRODUCING ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS
A STRONG SPRING STORM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LATE THIS
EVENING...MOST OF THE RAIN EXTENDED SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO
MARINETTE LINE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARDS SUNRISE. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS FORMED BEHIND IT AND IS TRACKING SOUTH. FOR
THE PLAINS...THIS MAY BE THE ONLY SHOT OF SNOW TODAY AS DRIER
MOVES IN BEHIND. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MOST
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-25. SNOW/SLUSH ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL
BE DIFFICULT DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXCEPT WHERE HEAVY SNOW
PERSISTS FOR A WHILE.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVE SOUTH IN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THESE WINDS TURNING
TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER WHERE 3 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. FOR THE DENVER METRO AREA...UP
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACE IN SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA.

SNOW WILL DECREASE AND END THIS EVENING AS THE DRIES AND
STABILIZES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

MRMS SHOWS PCPN HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THE PAST HOUR OR SO
FM CYS TO FORT COLLINS. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER THEN SNOW MAY
DVLP OVER THE DENVER AREA BY 14Z TO 15Z. MEANWHILE IN THE LAST
HOUR THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOW CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND ARE
TRENDING TO THE WETTER GFS. AMAZINGLY JUST A FEW HOURS AGO THE HRRR
AND RAP WERE SHOWING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND SW OF
DENVER OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...NOW THEY ARE SHOWING FROM 8 TO 12
INCHES WITH UP TO 8 INCHES FROM BOULDER TO SOUTH TO GOLDEN. AT
THIS POINT WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
MAKING MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY AS COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ON THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL DOWNRIGHT BRISK AT TIMES.

BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX AND THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF FINE SPRING
WEATHER WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING NORTHERN COLORADO. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO MOVE OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT RECENTLY PUSHED THROUGH WITH SNOW BEHIND IT. PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
0100Z AT THE DENVER AIRPORTS. DUE TO THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND NOT BEING HEAVY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON PAVED SURFACES. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MINOR SLUSH ON THE RUNWAYS IF HEAVY SNOW DOES FORM. AT
THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF DENVER...NOT KDEN. KDEN MAY BE SNOW
FREE AFTER 1700-1800Z...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z. VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 1 MILE UNDER
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL
START TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

840 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ALONG AND EAST OF S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. /HODANISH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PRIMARY
CLOUD FIELD OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOW GRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING NOTED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...NEAR/SHORT TERM REAL-TIME
DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT IN
COMBINATION WITH NEXT COLDER AND MOIST NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE SURGE PUSHING INTO THE THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE DEPICTED ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BASICALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET...EVEN INCLUDING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

OVERALL...HAVE DEPICTED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO SIX INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES
SHOULD OCCUR FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW WILL
DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IF/AS NEEDED.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

AN UPR TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE SOUTH FRI MORNING AND
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVR THE SRN MTNS...SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
THRU THE DAY FRI...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE NAM IS DRY FRI AFTERNOON ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AREA. WILL
KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

ON SAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WL TAKE PLACE OVR THE STATE AND WL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS AND DRY WX. HIGHS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
AVERAGE. ON SUN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE THRU THE NW FLOW
ALOFT BUT THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. HIGHS ON SUN
SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS AND AROUND 5 ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

ON MON AN UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE STATE BUT AN
APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
AREA AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUE THAT DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA...SENDING A
FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC...BREEZY W TO
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER AS THE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS. MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK DRY ON TUE...BUT THERE COULD BE SHOWERS OVR SOME OF
THE MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WL BE QUITE WARM ON TUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE SERN
PLAINS AND AROUND 10 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

FOR WED THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AND COOLER TEMPS. THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT FOR WED...KEEPING THE
UPR TROF FARTHER EAST WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVR THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. THUS THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT WITH INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 16Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
DISTRICT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN OVER AND NEAR THE TAF SITES AT
TIMES...WITH IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

625 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

BAND OF SNOW HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED FROM FORT COLLINS TO GREELEY
AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AS CDFNT MOVES IN. IF THIS BAND HOLDS UP
SNOW COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 8 AN AND 9 AM. STILL THINK
MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT BUT COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH
ON GRASSY SURFACES. LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE COMPLETELY FLIP
FLOPPED FROM THERE SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT AND NOW SUPPORT THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER THEY SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA WITH HEAVIER SNOW STILL STAYING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
DIA. FOR EXAMPLE THEY SHOW 6 INCHES AT BJC WITH 4 INCHES AT APA
AND ONLY AN INCH AT DIA.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

CONFIDENCE IN TODAY`S FCST IS ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. THERE IS
A DISTURBANCE IN NNW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NERN CO. THESE ARE THE ONLY TWO THINGS I`M SURE ABOUT.

THE TIMING OF PCPN AND HOW MUCH WILL OCCUR IS A WHOLE ANOTHER
MATTER. THE HRRR AND RAP BASICALLY HAVE PCPN ENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING PCPN THRU ABOUT 21Z IN
THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70 AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK. THIS IS DUE TO THEM
BRINGING IN A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS BY 18Z WHICH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD BY AFTN. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS 6 HOURS
SLOWER WITH ENDING PCPN AS IT DOES NOT SHOW THIS DRIER AIR MOVING
IN UNTIL AROUND 00Z. AS A RESULT IT HAS MUCH MORE PCPN IN AND NR
THE FOOTHILLS IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME PERIOD WITH CLOSE TO ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS TO THE WEST AND SW OF DENVER. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS LIGHTER PCPN. FOR NOW WILL SCALE BACK PCPN AMOUNTS SOME FM
PREVIOUS FCST AND KEEP HIGHER POPS IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. IF THE
HRRR AND RAP ARE CORRECT THEN MY TIMING OF ENDING PCPN MAY END UP
BEING 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO LATE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR THIS
AFTN IS HIGHS ACROSS NERN CO AS READINGS COULD END UP BEING WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO PCPN ENDING BY EARLY AFTN. THUS WILL BUMP
THEM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR THIS EVENING PCPN SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY IN THE MTNS...SRN
FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK. OVERNIGHT THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FCST AS THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER BRIEF
SURGE OVERNIGHT WHICH ENHANCES UPSLOPE BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SPEADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. AT
THIS POINT WILL JUST KEEP IN LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT BY 15Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING OF 15 TO 25 MPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. AS
FOR SNOW CHANCES THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS MENTIONED ABV. AT
THIS TIME BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF DIA IN THE 15Z TO 21Z PERIOD. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SNOW
CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING BY 18Z WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. FOR THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 00Z WITH NO SNOW
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WNW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS AND LOWER CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

1042 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.Update...

Differences exist between the hi-res models this morning in how
they handle the precipitation across Alabama today. HRRR has been
consistent over the past few runs in bringing showers and
thunderstorms further eastward than initially expected this
afternoon. Given this, have increased PoPs a bit mainly from
Tallahassee and westward for this afternoon. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track.

.Marine...

While the winds are on track across the marine area this morning,
the seas were slightly higher than forecast across the western
areas and thus increased wave heights for this morning slightly.
Also increased the PoPs to slight chance to chance for this
afternoon across the western marine area.

Moderate southerly winds are forecast to persist through Friday
night before a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday.
Marginal exercise caution conditions are possible at times through
Friday, especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will
develop on Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday.

.Prev Discussion [651 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an area of high
pressure across the Southeast, but for an area of deep moist
convection and an associated outflow boundary along the Mississippi
River. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a positive-tilt
trough from the Central Plains to southern CA. The global models
forecast little movement of the upper trough today, and only a slow
southeastward motion of the surface cold front, which will still be
west of the Mississippi River by late afternoon. Given our region`s
distance from the front (and the stronger synoptic scale forcing),
the ascent today will be rather weak but persistent, mainly across
southeast AL and the FL Panhandle. The consensus of MOS guidance and
CAMs indicate that the lift and moisture will not be sufficient for
widespread rain this afternoon, and the forecast PoPs will range
from 40% west and north of Dothan, to less than 20% from Tallahassee
east and southward. Temperatures will be warmer than average, in the
lower to mid 80s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
An active period of weather is on tap beginning tonight and
continuing through early Saturday. Aforementioned positively
tilted trough will make very slow eastward progress through
Friday, before pushing east of the region on Saturday. The
associated front will also move slowly, with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms developing out in front. While a few
thunderstorms will be possible this evening across SE Alabama and
the Panhandle, forcing for ascent will remain weak until later in
the night. More widespread convection is expected to move in from
the west by sunrise on Friday. Initially steep lapse rates and
strong deep layer shear late tonight and early Friday will support
a few strong to severe storms, with hail and damaging winds being
the primary threats. By Friday afternoon into Friday night, the
low-level jet is forecast to strengthen, which may add a threat
for isolated tornadoes. Overall, confidence is low in how this
event will unfold, as there will likely be several rounds of
convection, with each round influencing how the next round
evolves. However, given the available shear, moisture, and
instability, there is plenty of support for the Slight Risk from
SPC for days 1 and 2.

The surface front will exit the area during the day on Saturday,
with a 12z position stretching roughly from Valdosta to
Tallahassee to Apalachicola.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Following Saturday`s frontal passage, guidance is in good
agreement on mostly dry weather through much of the extended, with
west to northwest flow aloft. The relatively dry atmosphere will
allow morning temperatures to dip into the upper 40s, while the
full afternoon sun will push high temperatures well into the 70s.
A front will reinforce this airmass on Tuesday. However, no precip
is expected with this system at the moment.

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] As of 11z a band of SHRA/TSRA was moving ENE
at 25 KT across southwest AL. The latest CAMs are split as to
whether or not this rain reaches KDHN by late morning, but we are
opting with the majority of CAMs and forecasting it to just miss
KDHN to the N. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
region today, outside of isolated TSRA this afternoon. There is a
strong signal in the NWP guidance/MOS that IFR cigs/Vis will
develop across most of the area tonight, so we have low-end MVFR
cigs/Vis at most sites. These values may trend lower in subsequent
forecast packages. We expect SHRA and TSRA to develop across
southeast AL and the FL Panhandle toward daybreak Friday.

.Fire Weather...
No concerns.

.Hydrology...
Current conditions across the region show above normal stream
flows in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the
Suwannee. Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee,
Apalachicola, Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.

Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight into the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due
to the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists
for widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with
isolated heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of
the latest guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most
likely in the Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia,
which would suggest at least that the most impactful river
flooding would be limited to areas already in flood.

With the heavier amounts on Friday, and the already wet conditions
across the area, it`s possible that a flash flood watch will be
needed at some point. However, with the heaviest rain arriving
Friday, will hold off on a watch until this afternoon.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 81 70 79 67 76 / 30 30 80 70 50
Panama City 75 69 73 64 71 / 30 50 90 80 40
Dothan 82 69 74 59 71 / 40 70 90 70 10
Albany 83 68 76 61 73 / 30 50 90 70 20
Valdosta 84 67 80 66 75 / 20 20 70 70 60
Cross City 83 68 82 70 77 / 0 20 30 60 70
Apalachicola 75 69 74 67 73 / 20 30 70 80 60

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...FIEUX
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...CAMP/FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/CAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

920 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...

AREA MORNING RAOBS SHOW DISPARITY IN MEAN MOISTURE BTWN TBW (1.17")
AND XMR (1.39") MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT TBW IS QUITE A BIT DRIER
(AND WARMER) IN THE H90-H60 LAYER. WRLY LOW-MID LVL WIND TRAJECTORY
SHOULD ADVECT SOME OF THIS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT EWD TODAY...WHICH
WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE CIN/CAPPING AND INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH
THE 2KM WRF-ARW AND 3KM HRRR SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
ECM/MAV(GFS-BASED) MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS AT 10 INLAND/20 COASTAL
FOR TODAY WHILE THE MET (NAM-BASED) IS 20 INLAND/30 COAST. BASED ON
THIS...PLAN TO EXPAND PRECIP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST OF -95 (BUT STILL
EAST OF GREATER ORL-SFB) AND NUDGE POPS UP TO 30 AROUND/EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION IN S-SSE
FLOW.

.AVIATION...VFR. CONVECTIVE CU CIGS ABV BKN030 WITH ISOLD MVFR SHRA
DAB-MLB-VRB...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE INVOF VRB-SUA. EXPECT PRECIP TO
STAY EAST OF SFB-ORL-MCO.

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE LCL ATLC WATERS
WILL KEEP A MODERATE SE TO SSE BREEZE OF 12-16KT IN PLACE. SEAS
REMAIN 3-4FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. CAUTIONARY STMT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE 20-60NM LEGS.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WEITLICH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

FRIDAY...LOW LVL SSW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE LOW
LVLS BELOW 850 MBS ON FRIDAY WITH AIRMASS INITIALLY QUITE DRY WITH
PWAT VALUES FROM 1.1-1.2 INCHES FORECAST AT 12Z. MODEST MOISTENING
THROUGH THE DAY MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MAINLY ERN SECTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM MENTION FOR
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
ATLC WITH SW-W STEERING WINDS AT THE MID LVLS. APPEARS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS NRN SECTIONS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE EVENING POPS IN THE FCST. LOWS WILL BE WARM
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE BIG
BEND IN THE MORNING TO CENTRAL FL BY LATE SAT EVENING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARD NRN AREAS IN
THE MORNING AND REACH SRN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL WSW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY
OFFSHORE. WITH A DELAY IN CONVECTION REACHING SRN AREAS BY LATER IN
THE DAY EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S FROM VERO AND
KENANSVILLE SOUTH TO OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S NRN AREAS. H8-H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS WITH MID LVL
TEMPS TO -9 TO -10 C AT H5 WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO SRN AREAS INTO SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING INTO S FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S...BUT SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM LEESBURG TO LAKE
GEORGE.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING COOLER READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S FOR MARTIN COUNTY.

MON-THU...A WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST AND BE
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER S/W TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC INTO MID WEEK WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY BEING REINFORCED BY STRONGER NE/E FLOW TUE AFTN
INTO WED. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL...IN THE 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW NEXT FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP THU MAINLY DRY WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THU NIGHT.

.AVIATION...THRU 01/12
SFC WINDS: THRU 31/14Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE E/SE 5-10KTS...E OF KMLB-
KOBE SE 10-15KTS. BTWN 31/14Z-01/02Z...S/SE 8-13KTS XCPT S/SW 7-
10KTS AT KLEE. AFT 01/02Z...S/SW 4-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 31/12Z...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD IFR SHRAS. BTWN
31/12Z-31/18Z...E OF KVRB-KOBE SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 31/18Z-
01/02Z SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES.

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...CANAVERAL BUOYS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SVRL HRS WITH WINDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGES...SEAS
RUNNING 4-6FT. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THRU SUNSET AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC RETREATS SEAWARD AND MAINTAINS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH E/SE BREEZE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY AFT
SUNSET AS A NEW FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NW GOMEX
AND ERODES THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE... WINDS BCMG A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-
5FT OFFSHORE. WITH CONDITIONS JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND LITTLE
TO INDICATE FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE LCL PGRAD...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...BUT CAUTION WILL BE ADVISED AREAWIDE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL VEER TO SW ON SATURDAY MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHEST
SEAS OFFSHORE TO 4-5 FT. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ELEVATING SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS. FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE MONDAY AND
INCREASE AGAIN FOR MID WEEK A REINFORCING SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS IS
EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID
ATLC.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 67 87 69 / 20 10 20 20
MCO 88 67 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
MLB 84 70 87 73 / 20 10 20 20
VRB 85 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 87 67 88 72 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 86 68 90 71 / 20 10 20 10
ORL 87 67 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
FPR 85 69 88 72 / 20 10 20 20

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

742 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS
AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG MERIDIONAL
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT OVER MONTANA/IDAHO...FEEDING ENERGY BOTH
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO INTO FRACTURED TROUGH ENERGY
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MULTIPLE IMPULSES ARE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SOUTHWEST
TROUGH...SUPPORTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
OHIO/TN VALLEYS TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
FRIDAY LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET/BENIGN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MOST OF THE WEATHER
"ACTION" WILL BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND ACROSS BAJA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
CREEPS TOWARD FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND DOWN THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH A
DRIER COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC. ON MONDAY ROBUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE STATE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE PAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS RENOURISHES THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLING IN
BEHIND. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS ALREADY MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE
MID-WEST BRINING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN AROUND KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER
ANY LIGHT FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FOR MANY OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS INTO
FRIDAY AS FLOW MAKES IT WAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEA-
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AND EAST DURING FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

FOG POTENTIAL..AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1100 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VIGOROUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS
MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON THE WEAK/MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH BEST S/W ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MOVE MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC LATE TODAY. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES OUT OF GA INTO SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME TWEAKS TO POP
GRIDS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
SUN EARLY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IS WILL POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND
FIELD WITH GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY
FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H8. SPC DAY TWO CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250MB JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA
WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE
OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

720 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND TX. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. BEST
DYNAMICS TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE DIMINISHED BOTH POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF REMAINS HIGH WITH ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WATCH TO
BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN IS IN SIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES LIKELY FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

TIMING FOR THUNDER AT ATL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL LOOKS GOOD AT AROUND 20Z. CIGS HAVE REMAINED MVFR THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THEM INTO INCREASE TO ABOVE 3KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TRY TO SWITCH TO THE SW SIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FCST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE/SHOWERS
WITHIN LLJ CORE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY 17-18Z LEAVING A
DRY/WINDY EARLY-MID AFTN FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NARROW DRY/WARM
SECTOR LIFTS IN. BULK OF GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWERS/SCT STORMS ACCOMPANYING TRAILING COLD FRONT ON NOSE OF 110
KT MID LVL JET...INTO OUR IN/MI ZONES 19-21Z AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69 21-00Z. SLIGHT/CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS INTO MAINLY OUR INDIANA COUNTIES GIVEN STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND POTENTIAL (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) FOR UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IF MID-UPPER 60 SFC
TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED. SHEAR/BUOYANCY BALANCE OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT
GREAT GIVEN LIMITED SFC HEATING AND ALMOST TOO MUCH SHEAR/FLOW. AS
A RESULT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS (ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE) TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITHIN BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID MORNING AS BNDRY LYR MIXING ENSUES/DEEPENS. WHILE
STILL CONDL...THREAT FOR STG PSBLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN LOOKING
MORE PLAUSIBLE BASED ON MEASURABLE UPSTREAM CLD EROSION. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30KTS WILL PEAK TWD ERLY TO MID AFTN BFR QUICKLY
DIMINSHING THROUGH EVENING.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T

VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1033 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS DIG TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS NW ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RADAR SHOWS A WAVE OF PRECIP
EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING ACROSS MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 50S.

AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF LIFT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...A
FEW DRY HOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR SUGGESTS
MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS HAVE REDUCED
POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASED POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL SATURDAY.

MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND BRING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THIS RUN HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COOLER PATTERN AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S/30S AND 40S.

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

RAIN HAS ENDED AT KIND AND IS QUICKLY DEPARTING VICINITY. MVFR
CLOUD DECK REMAINS SOLID BACK TO ILLINOIS STATE LINE BUT THAT EDGE
IS ADVANCING EAST AS WELL. CURRENT NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS
HOLDING WINDS DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT ONCE LOW CLOUD DECK SCATTERS AND
SUNS BREAK OUT...FULL STRENGTH AND GUSTINESS OF WIND WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AND TO
REACH KIND 22Z- 23Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1007 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER KLAF AROUND THU 21Z...WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRI 01Z. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY BE AROUND MVFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF DETERIORIATION TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DURING STRONGEST CONVECTION.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY
FRI 01Z...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AT
THAT POINT THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WILL BE IN THE 14 TO 18 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
KTS. OF COURSE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

639 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T

VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STAVING OFF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. SUBSEQUENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS WEAKENING TREND BETTER. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT WOULD IMAGINE SOME THINNING WOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK VERY
REASONABLE.

HAVE MAINLY FINE TUNED THESE DWINDLING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE DAY...AS ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP OFF TO
OUR WEST AND MOVE IN.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED OUT IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WITH A STRONG 850 MB JET ALOFT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE
BLUEGRASS BORDER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF STATEMENT ADDRESSING THESE WINDS AS THEY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. UPDATES
WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR
31 2016

LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN ABSENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO OCCUR.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FLEMINGSBURG
TO EAST OF MONTICELLO...SLOWLY MAKING HEADWAY EAST INTO A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WILL SEE
THESE RISE THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM READINGS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE SIT IN THE 40S. A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WELL THIS MAIN
MOISTURE BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT WORKS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ACT TO INHIBIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER HINDERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE THE CORE OF THIS MORNING/S UPPER FORCING TRACKING WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN ADVECT IN BEFORE ALL UPPER SUPPORT IS LOST.
THAT BEING SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW HINTS OF A MINOR
PERTURBATION OR TWO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH MAY ACT TO
SUSTAIN MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FARTHER EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS.

LACK OF LIFT WILL LIKELY SPELL A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
70S...OWING TO AN APPROACHING H85 THERMAL RIDGE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME. GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...WILL BE IN
PLACE BEGINNING AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT...WITH H85
LEVEL WINDS OF NEAR OR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS.

FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF NEAR 50
KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VECTOR
ORIENTATION WILL LIKELY BE NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS KEEPING CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE FORM OF
LINEAR SEGMENTS. INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN THAT
SUGGESTED BY NWP IF SUSTAINED LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY DOES
FULLY MATERIALIZE...BUT A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
DOES LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR SHOULD OVERWHELM BUOYANCY PROCESSES
AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE OF LARGE HAIL.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY DOES SUPPORT SOME POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL ROTATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN CONVECTION
REMAINS ROOTED TO THE SURFACE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING...SCOURING OUT THE GREATER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AIRMASS WILL NOT COOL CONSIDERABLY AS THE
PARENT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION TO LOW 70S SOUTH AND EAST NEARER THE VIRGINIA
STATE LINE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF APRIL. WILL SEE LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
STORMS DEPART BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WITH REPEATING ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP
SEVERAL POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIETLY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH
THE COLD FRONT RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND LOW
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING KENTUCKY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST/FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER IMPACT
FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. 850MB TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SITTING FROM -4C
(SOUTHWEST) TO -8C (NORTHEAST). WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SETTING UP A HARD FREEZE FOR
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE
LOW...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PLACES TO REACH THE
LOWER 20S IF THINGS CAN ALIGN RIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING INTO THE AREA.

THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER
INTO THE 50S AFTER THE VERY COLD START. HOWEVER...VALLEYS SHOULD
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS AGAIN FALLING TO
AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL SET UP SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING IN SUNDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST AS SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY RIDGES MAY
STAY MIXED OVERNIGHT AND NOT DROP OFF AS EASILY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
ANOTHER DIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE SURGE
OF COLD AIR IS STRONGER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WE WOULD LIKELY
BE SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR THE AREA AS TEMPS
FALL WELL UNDER FREEZING AGAIN. GOOD NEWS IS WE MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER AROUND...KEEPING VALLEYS FROM DROPPING OFF AS LOW AND
LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AGAIN WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST TO DEAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT AS VALLEYS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE STRONGEST OF THE
OF THE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...WITH BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE CARVED OUT BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND POTENTIALLY THE
COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...WE MAY KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY EVEN MIXING IN AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. GIVEN THE SETUP...WENT WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

DIFFICULT FORECAST IN PLAY FOR ALL SITES AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR LOZ/SME AROUND 1230-13Z AND
PUSH EAST TOWARD SJS BY ~14-15Z. A LULL IN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
PREVAIL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY
UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES THIS EVENING. MAY VERY WELL SEE
DEGRADATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF DRY AIR RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
LIKELY THIS MAY BE. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL COME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS A GOOD BET ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TOWARD MVFR BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY AS STRONGEST
OF THE STORMS PUSH EAST. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LLWS ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT PENDING TIMING OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

909 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.67 INCHES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB WHERE WINDS VEER
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THOSE LEVELS. A
NOTED CAP BETWEEN 925 AND 900 MB WHERE TEMPS WARM FROM 65 UP 68
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE FROM ZERO TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
925. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHERE
WINDS ARE AT AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 1000 ASL. WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING
LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE WITH WBZ BEING AT 11.62 KFT AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT 13.07 KFT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINING
HIGH AT 85 DEGREES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED AN EXITING 1022MB HIGH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A 995MB LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA. A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO TEXAS BIG BEND. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5MB
WAS PRESENT FROM BTR TO MOB. AS A RESULT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WERE
OCCURRING. ISOTACH ANALYSIS SHOWED THE NOSE OF 140 KNOT SUB-
TROPICAL JET FROM TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA...FORECAST AREA
IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR NOW. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 850MB SHOWED
A LLJ OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...40 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AT 00Z
SHOWED A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES FROM
NORTHWEST GULF TO WEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
FINALLY...THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM
IOWA TO ARIZONA WITH DISTURBANCES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND
OVER ARIZONA. 18

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE AXIS AND LLJ WILL MIGRATE EAST AND YIELDING 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES OVER 400 TO 500 M/S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
FLORIDA PARISHES OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL INCREASE TO 1800 J/KG BY SUNRISE WITH
A SLIGHT LAG BEHIND THE CURRENT CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME SPIN
UPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ERGO...AGREE WITH TOR WATCH THROUGH 9
AM FOR NORTH HALF ZONES EXCLUDING MS COAST. WORKED OVER ATM MAY
YIELD A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD SCATTERED
SOUTH TO MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY FOR NORTH ZONES.

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

MARINE...

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 62 74 50 / 90 50 70 50
BTR 82 64 74 52 / 50 60 80 40
ASD 80 68 75 56 / 40 70 90 60
MSY 82 68 75 58 / 40 70 100 50
GPT 78 68 76 56 / 50 70 100 70
PQL 80 68 74 56 / 50 70 100 70

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ056>070.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
046>050-071-072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ080>082.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1130 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS. THEN
A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAW DOWN
COLDER AIR AND SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

I ADDED GREATER DETAIL THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER US NOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY NOON.
THEN AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM (WEST TO EAST). THESE STORMS
MAY WELL HAVE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING SO I
ADDED THAT TO OUR FORECAST GRIDS. THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO MUSKEGON THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SURGE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT (1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS) BETWEEN NOON AND
4 PM OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA (RAP MODEL). ALSO THE HRRR
AND SPC SREF ARE SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON... MOSTLY SUB SEVERE. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE AREA
OF CLEARING SOUTHWEST OF CHI TO SEE IF IT CAN GET INTO OUR CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF HAVING SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS POINT THOUGHIT
SEEMS TO ME THAT CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH SO I
THINK MOSTLY SUB - SEVERE STORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

BY 6 PM THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUR EASTERN CWA SO THE
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
IS LIMITED SO I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AFTER THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND STRONG SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA BUT TSRA HAVE
BEEN LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK RIGHT NOW AND
THAT WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS PRETTY
HIGH AROUND 65 KNOTS AFTER NOON TODAY AND WHILE THERE IS SOME CAPE
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 500-800 J/KG...LI/S ONLY FALL TO
AROUND -2C THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL TRENDS POINT TOWARD A BIT
LOWER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. I STILL THINK WE/LL SEE STORMS
AFTER NOON TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
A BIT DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS.

A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLDER AIR. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OVER THE NRN CWA AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SATURDAY SO RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS C. THE COLD AIR REMAINS INTO SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
AIR IS RATHER DRY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW TRAVERSES SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL
BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW TO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRIPE OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI.

DRIER AIR SETTLES IN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FOR THE MOST PART I DID NOT CHANGE THE WINDS OR HEADLINES IN THE
NEAR SHORE FORECAST. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MKG AND HOLLAND WEB
CAMS... VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO SO I ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST TILL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP MODEL FOG FORECAST TOOL.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT BOTH EVART AND CROTON. CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ARE
BASED ON 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY. THOUGHT THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS... BUT THESE AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE WITH THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE
CROTON TO A FLOOD WARNING... AND EVART MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING THURSDAY MORNING IF FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS VERIFY. IMPACTS
TO HOMES AND ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

ELSEWHERE... NEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND SOME
EXISTING ADVISORIES EXTENDED DUE TO 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE RESTRICTED TO LOW LYING AREAS
NEAR RIVER BANKS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT AS
WELL...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING TO MVFR IF NOT IFR AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 16Z TO 00Z TIME
FRAME...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED. HAVE VCTS WORDING IN THE
TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 15 TO
25 MPH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1017 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...KJAN MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A MAUL AROUND 750 MB WHICH
HAS LED TO ABOUT 730 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA MOVING OUT AT PRESENT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
SHOWING THE REALIZATION OF THIS CAPE IN THE BUBBLY APPEARANCE OF
ENHANCED CU AND TCU OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AREA RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EAST AND NORTH...BUT QUICKLY MOVING EAST
AS WELL.

VIS IMAGERY INDICATING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A RECHARGING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
IS INDICATING MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 20Z OVER NE LA WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS 0-1KM SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND
OVER 500 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.5-8 C/KM (VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30) WILL ALSO EXIST OVERTOP OF SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70./26/

.AVIATION...MIXED MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL
WITH AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AFTER 31/18Z. WHERE TSRA OCCURS...IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SEEN...BUT ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME./26

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

UPDATE...TO INCLUDE AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
AS SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 14Z A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TSRA/SHRA OCCUR FROM AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH 50 KT WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH THE
CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER
AROUND 21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 59 73 49 / 71 70 42 32
MERIDIAN 77 61 74 49 / 88 73 56 42
VICKSBURG 79 58 71 49 / 74 63 28 23
HATTIESBURG 78 66 72 52 / 86 63 79 60
NATCHEZ 79 61 71 49 / 75 58 51 40
GREENVILLE 77 54 68 46 / 74 53 20 21
GREENWOOD 78 54 71 45 / 80 80 21 20

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>029-034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

543 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...TO INCLUDE AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
AS SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 14Z A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TSRA/SHRA OCCUR FROM AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH 50 KT WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH THE
CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

..ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY...

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

22/28/22

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period at all sites. A
cold front will move through the region around midday...with winds
veering from southwest to west. Winds could gust to near 25 mph
during the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible at the KSTL metro TAF sites along the
front...but limited coverage does not warrant placing in TAF at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR through this TAF period. A cold front will
move through around 20Z with winds veering to the west. Sustained
winds may reach as high as 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
front...however coverage should be limited. Gusty winds will
subside after sunset.

Browning

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 75 44 59 37 / 60 10 10 5
Quincy 65 39 52 33 / 50 20 30 5
Columbia 66 39 55 34 / 30 10 10 5
Jefferson City 67 40 57 34 / 30 10 10 5
Salem 75 43 60 36 / 60 20 10 5
Farmington 76 41 59 34 / 60 10 10 5

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Browning

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with
periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of
fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by
afternoon.

West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this
evening.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with
periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of
fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by
afternoon.

West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this
evening.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

An area of low MVFR ceilings is moving southeast into the terminals
this morning. While conditions are currently VFR, these low MVFR
ceilings should move into the area between 12Z and 13Z. Models are
doing a decent job picking up on this area and they mix these lower
ceilings into higher MVFR ceilings by late morning. By this afternoon
VFR ceilings are expected. Winds should be fairly steady of the
west-northwest and be gusty to around 20 to 25 kts this morning and
early this afternoon. But they should decrease by this evening.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet
another chance for precip.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

953 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW OF TIME THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR EXAMPLE...IN THE
HASTINGS AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM.
LOOK FOR A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW AS THIS QUICK HITTER MOVES
THROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS FAR AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE RAP DOES NOT GIVE US ANYTHING. A CLOSED
MID- LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...WHICH MIGHT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR FAR NORTHEAST A
SHOT AT SOME QUICK RAIN/SNOW...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE
ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARILY NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
THE REMNANTS OF ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PUSHING E-NE OUT OF THE AREA. QUICK ON ITS HEELS...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN PUSHING S-SE OUT CENTRAL CANADA...AND WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY AT THE SFC...NWRLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE CWA-
WIDE...SITTING BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER IA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS IN
PLACE...AND WHAT PRECIP IS FALLING IS A COLD RAIN...WITH 3 AM
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE ONGOING AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF A
LXN/BELOIT LINE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ONCE IT
DOES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA...BUT ITS LOOKING TO BE A BRIEF ONE.
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED NEXT IN LINE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY...AND INTO FAR NERN
PORTIONS OF NEB BY EVENING. INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...THOUGH MODELS ARENT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THOSE CHANCES...WITH SOME REALLY DROPPING OFF
BASICALLY SOUTH OF I80. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TOTALLY RULE OUT
ANY PARTICULAR AREA...SO HAVE THE CWA-WIDE POPS STILL IN
PLACE...WITH 30- 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE THE
SHOWER ONLY MENTION...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY /THOUGH THE NAM STILL SHOWS PERHAPS 1-200 J/KG/. CANT
EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NERN
QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES INTO IA TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...SO LOOKING AT A
BREEZY/WINDY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
NWRLY...SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. FAR S/SERN AREAS MAKE
CREEP UP NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS MIXED IN.

EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY...WITH A RELATIVELY COOL SPRING AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW
DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO MAKE FOR
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN
TRANSITIONS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL TRACK WITH A
LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND 70S ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A MODEST BUMP IN DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THESE
WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES TO COMBINE WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER. DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS...DECIDED TO BROAD BRUSH
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6...WITH
PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE EXACT DETAILS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...A QUICK PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUNDAY EVENING
TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY...WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THIS MODEST TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY. THIS WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS A
BIT STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...ENSEMBLE OUTLIERS ARE ONLY
BRINGING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF A PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS ONLY BRINGING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

SO OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SEESAWING TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KGRI OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...BUT SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE DAY...BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SHOWERS...MAINLY MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS POINT AM GOING WITH VCSH MENTION...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NWRLY WINDS BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE DAY OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH...DECIDED TO BE
PESSIMISTIC AND GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

904 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW COMMA HEAD PRECIP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING SOUTH. HRRR SEEMED TO CATCH THIS TREND AND DEPICT
THE POPS WELL SO FAR SO UPDATED WITH THE HRRR TREND. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW WINDIEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE ADVISORY. NDDOT WEBCAMS SHOW
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SHOWING UP FROM STERLING TO DENHOFF OVER
TO MAX.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT TO LINE UP WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
ALSO DONE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ADJUSTMENT AS SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT HIGH-
RES MODELS INDICATE A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN.

EARLY THIS MORNING RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AS THERE IS VERY
LITTLE COLD AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM CANADA. IF TEMPERATURES DO DROP
BELOW FREEZING THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN THERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY MELT AFTER
SUNRISE.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MODEST PRESSURE RISES CONTINUED TO BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE
REACH THE MAGNITUDE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR BRIEF WIND ADVISORY READINGS...SO WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS THEY
ARE.

TONIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IS WINDS. LARGE PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE STRONGEST WINDS (30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH) WILL KICK IN
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY LATER FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE STATE. SEVERAL WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BRINGING OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WHILE PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR OVER MANY LOCATIONS. LATER TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION MAY
AGAIN FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CIGS DIMINISHING TO MVFR
LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

921 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK MID LEVEL SRN STREAM WAVE WAS
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF STRONG NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF...TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL DAMPEN
FURTHER AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TODAY...WITH PROGGED RAINFALL
RATES DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM GETS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
MOISTURE SOURCE AND RUNS INTO DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING.

DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT TODAY WILL VARY WITH
THE RAIN...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS WITH THE WITH THE
BREAKUP OF THE INVERSION THIS MORNING...AND THEN AT THE ONSET OF
THE RAIN AS DAPE IS REALIZED. HOWEVER...ANY GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS AT
LEAST MUCH OF THE TIME TODAY. THUS WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY MENTION IN THE HWO
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

THE SYSTEM TODAY WILL MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W TONIGHT. THE FRONT...DRIVEN BY
AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THAT DAMPENS AS IT LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF A
L/W TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THEN A
SECOND S/W TROUGH THAT CARVES OUT THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD DAWN FRI.
THIS WILL BRING A SECOND...HEAVIER ROUND OF SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL
OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH SHOULD STILL BE MANAGEABLE.

IT APPEARS A PROGGED MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TODAY...BUT THIS CAP DISAPPEARS TONIGHT...MAKING ELEVATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY
BUT HAVE THE CHANCE IN FOR MOST OF THE NT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.

STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT WENT A
BIT HIGHER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL ALMOST
DAWN.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
TO START THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUN LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY. REALLY HATE TO KEEP PING
PONGING POPS BUT WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT SNOW WILL FALL. IT DOESN/T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT
WITH SNOWSHOE RECEIVING AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

IT DRIES OUT AND COOLS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE THE LOWER
50S IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. AGAIN
HAVE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER TREND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY BEHIND EACH COLD FRONT...WITH A BRIEF
REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL BRUSHES WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE S IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY...BUT THE STRONG S
WINDS...DOWNSLOPE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP CIGS VFR. VSBYS
MAY GO MVFR IN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER COME DAWN FRI

SRLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING THIS MORNING.
GUSTS AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CAN REACH
25 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND 30 TO 35 KTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...EVEN UP TO 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS...ABOVE
3000 FT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SW.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW EFFICIENT THE WINDS MIX TO GROUND DURING
THE DAY TODAY...CONSIDERING THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. SO COULD SEE A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE
SHOWERS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
BREAKS IN THE LAYERED CLOUDS. SO CONFIDENCE SET AT MEDIUM ON
SURFACE WIND SPEED UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SURFACE WIND SPEED AND GUSTS WILL VARY. THEY
MAY BE GREATER AT THE ONSET AND THEN LESS DURING THE LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WIND SHEAR COULD BE CLOSE TO LLWS
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT BKW
AT TIMES. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY VARY.

UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1128 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COLDER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN PA.
THE LATE SEASON COLD PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF I-99 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE THAT A
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BAND IS FCST TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE SUSQ VLY AROUND 00Z.

MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM FCST WAS MADE TO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD /00-12Z FRIDAY/. POPS WERE LOWERED BETWEEN 00-06Z
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LULL OR BREAK IN PCPN. THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT LOOKS MORE INTERESTING WITH A POTENTIAL PREFRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ORGANIZING OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN PA
ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT. THE LOW CAPE/STRONG
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS APPARENT WITH 55-60KT LLJ PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. THE INITIAL SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK CLIPS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES WITH MRGL RISK INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
POSSIBLE QLCS STRUCTURE. TIMING MAY ACTUALLY FALL VERY LATE IN THE
DAY 1 PERIOD JUST PRIOR TO 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON THE NCAR ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED TO BE UPDATED BY 1730 UTC.

PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT STILL EXPECT A VERY MILD AFTERNOON FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. INCREASED MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
SE WHERE READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60F OR +25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...CLEARING THE SERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST/LWR SUSQ VLY. PWATS STEADILY DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO TREND DOWNWARD IN THE SAME
WAY...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE RISK OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH A COLDER
PATTERN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHICH MAY SLOW THE FRONT ALONG THE
EAST COAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA AS THE EDGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW
REACHES WESTERN PA. MODELS FOCUS RAIN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
THE MID ATLC COAST BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EXTREME
SE. TEMPS WILL BE COULD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NW MTNS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL TAKE A DECIDED TURN FOR THE COLDER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE REGION UNDER THE COLD NW
FLOW ALOFT.

THE FIRST SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
LOWER GR LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS SETTING UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON LAKE EFFECT EVENT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH BASED INVERSION ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND
ALIGNMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAT IS MADE TO LAST INTO AT LEAST
MID DAY SUNDAY. WHILE SNOW COULD ACTUALLY BE IN THE AIR BEFORE
SATURDAY ENDS...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO STICK
UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND MORE LIKELY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE COLD AIR ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF POTENTIAL INTEREST IS A CLIPPER LOW THAT THE
ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS SHOW DROPPING INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...THEN THROUGH PA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE TRACK AS IT IS PORTRAYED NOW WOULD
SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA COULD
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IT COINCIDES WITH THE FORCING UNDER A
RETREATING JET ENTRANCE REGION WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW-
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW THIS LOW A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS INDICATED FOR MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER IS MADE TO APPROACH FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY. TIMING BECOMES AN
ISSUE BETWEEN THE MODELS BY THEN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
FOR THE 31/12Z TAFS THROUGH 01/12Z FRIDAY | ISSUED 1130 AM EDT

SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME NW PA INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LKLY PUSH EWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
20-00Z. CIGS SHOULD TREND LOWER OVER THE NW AIRSPACE WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE AT BFD. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AIRSPACE BELOW MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT AGL. EXPECT A LULL IN
PCPN EARLY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A FEW TSTMS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS FROM
180-210 THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...AM SHRA/REDUCED CIGS LIKELY. ISOLD AFTN TSTM PSBL SE PA.

SAT...PM SHSN/LOW VSBYS LIKELY W MTNS. BECOMING WINDY AT NIGHT.

SUN...WINDY. AM SHSN/LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE NW MTNS.

MON...CHC OF RAIN/SNOW...ESP NORTHERN PA.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1054 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER WILL BRING A
CANADIAN AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT...RADAR COVERAGE THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY BEEN
LIMITED TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
AREAS. THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST IS COMBINING WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN TN. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IS HOW MUCH INSOLATION AND HEATING WE WILL GET GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND THE UPPER CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. SOME BREAKS AT TIMES ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85. RAP PROFILES DEVELOP SOME NARROW SBCAPE ALONG WITH
SFC TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. ANY SUNSHINE TODAY COULD
PORTEND SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE JUMP.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
ON THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WHICH ARRIVES GENERALLY FROM 06Z
WEST TO 12Z EAST. THIS LINE MAY BE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME
MEASURE OF MUCAPE AND 40 TO 50 KT SHEAR ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE NORTHERN TIER SHOULD BE MORE STABLE...BUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE THE APEX OF A QLCS REACH OR
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. HODOGRAPHS DO LOOK IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH 0-1 KM
HELICITY REACHING 200 TO 300 M2/S2 OVER THE UPSTATE. COULD NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT NO FOCUSING BOUNDARIES EXIST AND WIND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY MORNING...CAMS INDICATE THAT A SOUTH
TO NORTH ORIENTED MCS WILL PUSH OFF THE MTNS ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS 0-2
KM HELICITY VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS RANGING FROM 300-400 M2-S2.
CAPE VALUES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 500-100 J/KG WITH LFC
BELOW 3 KFT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY YIELD EHI
VALUES AROUND 1 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. I WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT A ORGANIZED BAND OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN TOGETHER AS IT MOVES OFF THE MTNS...EAST ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS LINE WILL POTENTIAL RESULT IN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID DAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
MORNING CONVECTION WITH CATE POPS...REDUCING TO LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITHIN THE
MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL
WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
EVENING...TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE AND APPROACH OF THE H5
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MTNS TO UPPER 50S EAST OF I-85.

SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE FRONTAL
WAVE WILL REACH THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BY SUNRISE. THE NAM IS MUCH
SLOWER AND WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...I WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THIS APPROACH WILL SUPPORT PIEDMONT SCHC POPS THROUGH MID DAY...THEN
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER POPS TO SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 70 EAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE...SUN THROUGH
WED...WILL FEATURE GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW...POSSIBLY A
CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS THE MID WEST LATE ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
WEEKEND...SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST MORNING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS...LOW 40S EAST. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT H85 TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN NC MTNS SHOULD SEE H85 TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -5 C BY 12Z SUN.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW CHC
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY...DRYING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NC MTNS MAY RESULT
IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WITH VALLEY SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
NC ZONES...WITH AROUND 40 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE OR FROST FOR THE MTNS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WED IN THE HWO.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAINLY VFR STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES...BUT WITH SOME MVFR
LAYER CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND IN THE WARM ADVECTION...AND THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP
WINDS ALIGNED SSE...SHIFTING A LITTLE TO SOUTHELRY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF ANY TSRA APPEARS A
BIT UNCERTAINY...BUT CAM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 00Z TO 03Z IS
PROBABLY STILL THE BEST BET FOR A TEMPO. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AFTER 08Z.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE MOISTURE...WITH MORE MVFR THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SC
TERMINALS...MAINLY AFT 21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF QUICK MOVING TSTMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AFT 06Z/07Z. EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGHOUT...BRIEFLY GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY. CLEARING SKIES AND DRYING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT MED 79% HIGH 100% MED 70% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 90% HIGH 88% MED 61% LOW 54%
KAVL HIGH 87% MED 78% MED 61% MED 61%
KHKY HIGH 87% MED 77% MED 62% MED 74%
KGMU HIGH 90% MED 79% MED 67% MED 69%
KAND MED 74% MED 68% MED 71% MED 79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/SBK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/SBK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1012 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS
AND AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:

IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.

TVT

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FINISHED BY 14Z AS INITIAL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT. MVFR/IFR CIGS
EARLY WILL BECOME VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

JLH

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

636 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:

IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.

TVT

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

JLH

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

959 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND WITH A COUPLE OF THICK LAYERS OF DRY AIR SEEN ON THE
12Z SOUNDINGS. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHOWING AN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION...I HAVE A
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. TWEAKED A FEW OTHER GRIDS BUT NO
MAJOR OVERHAUL EXCEPT POPS.

AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z/NOON EAST OF THE BLUR
RIDGE. AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 30
KNOTS AT KBLF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TODAY AND MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. LIFT AND
FORCING ARE STRONGER TONIGHT...AND A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE 12Z END
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR APPEARS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL AREAS RETURN TO VFR LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL
TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

741 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR APPEARS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

254 PM MST THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT
TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND
WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS
OVER MY FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER RETURNS ARE OVER
COCHISE COUNTY. EVEN SO...NO MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWING UP FROM
OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. THAT SAID...
POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING IS BASED HEAVILY ON LATEST HRRR AND SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM TUCSON
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO
SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA COULD BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. FOR NOW THE GFS
IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. 31/12Z MOS NUMBERS SHOW 25 PERCENT FOR TUCSON NEXT
THURSDAY...WHILE EURO SHOWS 2 PERCENT. SO THAT SAID...WITH CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND JUST KEPT MOSTLY SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

HUGE DISCREPANCIES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
BETWEEN GFS AND EURO WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AS WELL...WITH GFS SHOWING
A HIGH NEXT THURSDAY OF 78 DEGS...WHILE EURO SHOWS 96 DEGS.
AGAIN...JUST WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO...FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF THE
TUS TERMINAL THRU ABOUT 02/03Z...THEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER 02/18Z.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 10K-15K FT MSL WILL PREVAIL.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. OTHERWISE... SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST-TO-
SOUTH OF TUCSON INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED HUMIDITY VALUES. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
GENERALLY AROUND 25 MPH WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY
LESSER WINDS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS/ FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...GM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1100 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE WILL SEE BEST
POPS. ALSO...FAR N EL PASO WILL ALSO SEE GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.

E SLOPES OF S MTNS WILL SEE ACCUM SNOWFALL...BUT ONCE AGAIN
PRECIP GRADIENT (SNOW AND RAIN) MAY BE VERY TIGHT. TRIED TO FINE
TUNE POPS GIVEN HI RES GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ALONG AND EAST OF S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. /HODANISH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS/SNOW
AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COS THIS
AFTERNOON...DECREASING DURING EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF COS ON E SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK. VFR
EXPECTED BY MID EVENING.

KPUB MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR. VFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

KALS WILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES BY LATER IN THE EVENING.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

627 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH, WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING TO OUR
EAST. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND ONE DIVING
TOWARD OUR AREA, STRENGTHENING AS THEY DO SO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

DEEP S-SWLY RETURN FLOW IN BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL KEEP US IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD PATTERN. FORECAST
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S ARE
ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WINDS).

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 MPH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 10-15
MPH FARTHER INLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS IS LOCATED OUT TO
OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE TO MAINTAIN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN PA. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE,
PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND RAP, SHOWS THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY PROGRESS THRU OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
POPS WERE LOWERED BOTH WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UPDATES DUE
TO THE TRENDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS FOR A MAINLY DRY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NERN PA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS TO BE OVERHEAD AT
THE START THE DAY. RH CROSS SECTIONS FROM A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.
ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PUTS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL THE
ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN IF WE DON`T FULLY DESTABILIZE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ,
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE ALONG A LINE
WITH STRONG SHEAR THE DRIVING FORCE. SHERBS PARAMETER VALUES FROM
THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE ABOVE 1 ACROSS THE DE VALLEY AND COASTAL PLAIN
AT 18Z AND 21Z...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN THIS HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SETUP.
SPC D2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

S-SW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OFF THE 12Z GFS VERIFY, WE WOULD NEED A WIND ADVISORY FROM PHILA
SOUTH AND EAST AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS TENDS TO BE TOO HIGH WITH THE WIND FIELD
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DEEP
THE MIXING WILL BECOME IF THE MORNING STRATUS HANGS ON LATER INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED, WITH VERY STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AND EVEN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS TO OUR EAST SATURDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES COULD
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
COULD CREATE RAINFALL THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ONE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WHILE THE
OTHER DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA. AS THE FIRST ONE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA, IT MAY BRING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SECOND
DIVES TOWARD OUR AREA, IT WILL PULL A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO FRONTS SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WE ONLY HAVE ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH AS WARM AS IT`S BEEN, IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH SNOW TO STICK, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST 40 TO 50 MPH,
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS, LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

THE LOW WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CLIPPER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE GFS. BUT THEY BOTH AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS RAIN, BUT AS THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SO WE HAVE
INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOES A BIT UP AND DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED
DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS.
WITH AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS,
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...VFR. SLY WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THRU 21Z BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNSET.

SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CIGS LOWERING
LATE THIS EVENING TO MVFR AND TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WE WERE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THESE LOW CLOUDS THAN THE LAMP/NAM GUIDANCE.

IFR WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE MORNING AS STRATUS
MIXES OUT. SWLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY (25-30 KT). THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA, WHICH MAY LOWER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY 20-25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY LOWER CONDITIONS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 40-50 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. SNOW POSSIBLE LATE AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT, THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT BUT GUSTS WILL WILL STILL BE AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT.

SWLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
SEE A REPEAT OF WHAT HAPPENED TODAY WITH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING ON LAND POSSIBLY REACHING THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN TODAY AND THUS DO NOT THINK
MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT 35 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, HOWEVER,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING. COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE
EVENING, SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLY
NEAR STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH A
RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY, POSSIBLY NEAR
GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF LULL
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS, POSSIBLY GALE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS DROPPING INTO 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A TIME IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING OF THE FUELS TAKES PLACE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

428 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A trough was extended across the central/western US with a shortwave
embedded in the through across the central Plains to mid-
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A slow moving cold front was
associated with this system and the front will push into the lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. A complex of storms has been pushing
across AL/GA today with the stronger storms across southern
Alabama. This is the area on the northern side of the better CAPE
(around 1000 J/kg) and the southern side of the better shear.
While CAPE values will be decent across the western extent of the
CWA, the area will be slightly less favorable than further
westward. Still the potential for severe storms though into this
evening, particularly across the western portion of the CWA. While
some models have struggled with depicting the showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, the HRRR consistently showed the
showers and thunderstorms pushing into the CWA this afternoon.
Have trended the forecast for the evening towards the HRRR and
thus increased PoPs across the western half of the CWA through
this evening. Some of this activity may linger into tonight, but
then expect a lull before another round moves into SE Alabama late
tonight.

Overnight lows will be well above climatology, around 15-20 degrees
above normal.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Deep moist southwest flow aloft through Friday night will gradually
flatten becoming zonal by Saturday night as the axis of the broad
trough swings to our east. The associated cold front entering the
Lower Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period will
slowly translate eastward across our CWA Friday night through midday
Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the front with some containing very heavy rainfall. A
surface low is expected to develop along the boundary in the
northern Gulf Friday and lift northeastward across the Florida
Panhandle. This will further enhance convection with heavy rains
and we have issued a flash flood watch for all but the SE Big Bend
and a few of our southeast Georgia counties. The watch is in
effect through 8 am Saturday as we expect widespread QPF amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts between 5 and 6 inches.

In addition to the flash flood threat, we still have the potential
for severe weather with the greatest threat during the Friday to
Friday night time frame. SPC has a portion of western zones
highlighted in the slight risk through tonight and all but our SE
Big bend zones for Friday/Friday night. The greatest threat
continues to be damaging thunderstorm winds but large hail and
isolated tornados are also possible. The cold front is expected to
be roughly along a line from near Albany to Apalachicola around
daybreak Saturday with a marginal risk for severe weather along and
to the east of there. The cold front is expected to clear all
zones by noon or shortly thereafter.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much drier airmass
will filter in through Monday. A dry cold front will drop down from
the north bringing a re-enforcement of drier air on Tuesday that will
continue at least into the middle of the week. A stronger cold front
may arrive late Wednesday or Thursday bringing with it the next
chance for rain. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] MVFR to VFR conditions are across the TAF sites
this afternoon. Cig heights will deteriorate overnight with LIFR
to IFR cigs by the morning. Showers and thunderstorms will push
into the DHN area today and push eastward. At this point, the
chances are too low to mention in the eastern TAFs as the storms
may not persist that long. Winds are gusting 18-28kts this
afternoon as stronger winds above the surface have mixed down, but
winds should weaken late this afternoon into the evening.

.Marine...

Moderate southerly winds will persist through Friday night before
a cold front crosses the waters early Saturday. Marginal exercise
caution conditions are possible at times through Friday,
especially over the western waters. Offshore flow will develop on
Saturday behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible from Friday night through Saturday night, mainly across
the western waters.

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns. A soaking rain is expected by
Friday if not sooner. Drier air will move in on Saturday and remain
in place for a few days, but is not expected to reach the threshold
for Red Flag criteria.

.Hydrology...

Current conditions across the region show above normal stream flows
in the lower portion of the river basins, except in the Suwannee.
Flooding is still occurring on the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola,
Withlacoochee, and Choctawhatchee Rivers in Florida.

Flooding concerns increase considerably late tonight through the
weekend as a storm system approaches the region. It seems the
heaviest rains will be focused on Friday into Friday night. Due to
the slow movement of the frontal system, the potential exists for
widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall totals across the area with isolated
heavier totals of 5 to 6 inches possible. The blend of the latest
guidance suggests the heavier totals would be most likely in the
Florida Panhandle through SE Alabama and SW Georgia, which would
suggest at least that the most impactful river flooding would be
limited to areas already in flood.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of the region through
Saturday morning.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 68 79 68 78 47 / 40 100 100 50 10
Panama City 70 75 66 73 51 / 40 100 100 40 10
Dothan 68 74 61 73 44 / 70 100 80 10 0
Albany 68 76 63 73 44 / 40 100 100 20 0
Valdosta 67 80 68 77 46 / 30 100 100 60 10
Cross City 68 82 72 79 49 / 20 40 90 70 10
Apalachicola 70 74 69 75 52 / 20 100 100 50 10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/MCDERMOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

350 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH GREATEST UPPER LIFT APPEARS
TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES OUT OF GA
INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW
AND WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A
STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H85. AREA UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND
STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BUT
WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY BE THE FOCUS
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CONTINUED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. FRONT TO OUR WEST TO ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH DUE TO A
SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE GENERALLY TO OUR WEST...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE CSRA...AGS/DNL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT DIFFICULT SO WILL USE
VCSH FOR NOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME LLWS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BY ONGOING AROUND SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AND EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS
TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

224 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER EWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SPC DAY 1 SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH BEST S/W ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MOVE MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NC TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH
THE BULK THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
SE AL. LATEST HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES OUT OF GA INTO SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT OF A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN GA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN AMPLIFY AS
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO ARRIVE AS IS WILL POSITIONED NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND
WILL ONLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT AS THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS DOWN EVEN MORE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER WIND
FIELD WITH GOOD SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY
FROM 3O TO 50 KNOTS AT H8. SPC DAY TWO CONTINUES TO HAVE THE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA. AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 250MB JET MAX OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS...CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS SYSTEMS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS FRONT SLOWS/STALLS IN THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.75 INCHES. WHERE FRONT SLOWS AND
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAIN. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SRN MIDLANDS/CSRA
WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECAUSE
OF WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AT WHICH FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS
STILL MUCH SLOWER. MODELS HAVE HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT DROP THEM OFF DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE DAY FROM W
TO E AS THE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA. STILL KEEPING CHANGE
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY BUT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

147 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GA
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN RAIN
SHIELD AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO
ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP IFR FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDER TO INCREASE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
WITH A LULL BETWEEN 12-18Z TOMORROW. EXPECT MUCH OF CONVECTION
SOUTH OF KATL AREA BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A PROB30.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 64 77 51 / 80 80 70 40
ATLANTA 74 65 76 51 / 80 80 70 50
BLAIRSVILLE 67 59 73 45 / 80 80 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 62 76 48 / 80 80 60 40
COLUMBUS 78 67 74 53 / 70 70 70 60
GAINESVILLE 70 62 74 50 / 80 80 70 40
MACON 78 66 74 54 / 60 50 70 60
ROME 73 62 76 47 / 80 80 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 75 64 75 49 / 80 80 70 50
VIDALIA 82 67 77 62 / 40 40 70 70

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...ATWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1204 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GA
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN RAIN
SHIELD AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DROPPED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO
ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016/
12Z UPDATE...

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1245 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
1115 AM CDT

THE PRIMARY THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS WELL INTACT AT THIS
POINT...AND THAT IS AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM PERIOD
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.

MULTIPLE EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION...EACH STEERING IN COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(-25C AT 500MB) AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES (7.5 C/KM).
LATEST HAND ANALYSIS INDICATES A 992 MB LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THAT
BY 30-50 MILES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FOCI FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM FRONT IS HUNG UP NEAR THE WISCONSIN STATE
LINE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RACINE AND WAUKEGAN. IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE CWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S. SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED DUE TO THE
BROKEN LOW-BASED CUMULUS OVERHEAD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS.

THE STORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE ROOTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME SIGNS ON RADAR AND SATELLITE OF DEVELOPMENT TRYING
TO GET GOING SOUTH TOWARD KEWANEE AND PEORIA. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
A GRADUAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH CELLS AS THEY
MOVE EAST GIVEN THEY ARE COLLOCATED WITH RAP INDICATED MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG (ML VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG). ALSO A STRONG
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL JET OF 80-100 KT SAMPLED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ASSISTING IN
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. STORM MAGNITUDE AND POSSIBLY EVEN COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL CAPE AND SLIGHTLY WORKED OVER AREA OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM EARLIER STORMS. HOWEVER...STORMS NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES IN THE PAST HOUR WERE PULSEY IN NATURE INDICATING THAT
EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY THE SHEAR COULD COMPENSATE FOR A
BRIEF LARGE HAIL THREAT.

FURTHER EAST...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...EXISTING OR
DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROPENSITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTY POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
STORMS MOVE OVER A DEEPER MIXED LAYER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
LIMITED PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LOW ARE
PREVENTING MUCH OF A BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND RESPONSE...SO THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ZERO GIVEN
THE LOW MAGNITUDE AND DISCRETE STORM NATURE ANTICIPATED.

MTF/JEE

.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN
TEMP TRENDS WITH FRONT AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED BACK DOOR FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FRIDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SAGGED SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR NORTH. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES APPARENT THIS MORNING...ONE OVER SE MN AND THE OTHER
OVER EASTERN MO...GENERAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THESE
WAVES COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT RANDOM SCTD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SFC LOW OVER IA WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT SECONDARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER LATER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL REMAIN VEERED
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE VEERED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND ANTICIPATED MODEST DESTABILIZATION DUE IN PART TO
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ADVECTING IN WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE
MORNING OVER NORTHERN IL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

DESPITE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WEAK SURFACE HEATING...IT APPEARS LIKELY MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 500 J/KG EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SE CWA IN NW IN. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK...WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 50-70KT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG SHEAR AND RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
MAY BE SLOW TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS SHEAR COULD
INITIALLY RIP UPDRAFTS APART. THE WEAK INSTABILITY WOULD GENERALLY
TEND TO FAVOR RATHER LIMITED HAIL THREAT TODAY...THOUGH GIVEN THE
WEAK CONVERGENCE STORMS COULD REMAIN MORE CELLULAR WHICH GIVEN THE
SHEAR WOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS
INTENSIFY/MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A MODEST HAIL
THREAT AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH WITH
TIME STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR EASTERN CWA AND POINTS EAST. AS THE LINEAR EVOLUTION
OCCURS LOOK FOR WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO INCREASE A BIT. THE
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND VERY STRONG SHEAR...ALBEIT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY
STRONGER OR WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WERE TO
OCCUR.

STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY IF NOT VERY SOON AFTER 21Z.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE FLOW COULD TURN NORTHERLY
ENOUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW A LAKE
ENHANCED FRONT TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY SURGE SOUTH DOWN THE
LAKE AND INLAND A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE
A MODEST TEMP DROP IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT...SHOULD A LAKE ENHANCED FRONT INDEED DEVELOP A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPS (INTO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S) WOULD OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
324 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS (AOB -30C AT
500MB) SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING
LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SEE GRAUPEL OR PERHAPS EVEN WET
SNOW FLAKES WITH THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS FRIDAY. SHOWERS END
FRIDAY EVENING AND WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER
#2 WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE A BIT LESS WITH THIS WAVE AND SHOULD FAVOR MORE EASTERN CWA.
ONE OF THE BIGGER STORIES WITH SAT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS OVER 45 MPH)
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
CLIPPER #3 WHICH GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TO HELP MOST AREAS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. AS
CLIPPER MOVES EAST THE COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST FROM THE LOW WILL
DROP ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.
TYPICALLY COLD FRONTS WITH CLIPPERS ARE DRY...BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS
FRONT. QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN RINSE AND REPEAT...

NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING...BUT
STILL QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION.

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TAFS ARE:

- THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER THEM THROUGH 20Z
- WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS
- WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER
- IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY DURING THE FRI MORNING RUSH

AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH MULTIPLE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA PRIOR TO 1930Z-2000Z. VISIBILITY AS LOW AS
3/4SM HAS BEEN REPORTED UNDER THESE STORMS SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO
SEE BRIEF EVEN LOWER VISIBILITY THAN INDICATED IN THE TEMPO. LOW
FREEZING LEVELS AND THE NATURE OF THE STORMS ARE FAVORING SMALL
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ONES. THE STORMS WILL BE ROOTED JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. AS THAT PASSES WINDS WILL TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY.

BEHIND THE STORMS...A WINDOW OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGS OVER. THESE WOULD SEEM MOST FAVORED OVER FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST THUS
FAVORING DRAGGING THE COOL AIR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN WISCONSIN
OVER LOCAL AIRPORTS. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. THESE COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY. THE PROBLEM IS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. SO WHILE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THAT AND ITS DURATION /AND THUS HOW LOW THE CLOUD BASES BECOME/
IS ALL QUITE LOW.

MTF

.MARINE...
332 AM CDT

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTEND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE. THIS IS HELPING
TO CREATE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTH
HALF...AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30KT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH HALF. WITH THIS LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
LAKE LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL THEN BECOME MORE
NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS THROUGH THIS TIME LIKELY LOCATED OVER AREAS
EAST OF NORTHERLY ISLAND. WITH THE ANTICIPATED LOWER SPEEDS AND
WAVES NEAR WINTHROP/WILMETTE HARBORS...WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH FOR
TODAY...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS NOW EXPECTED. STILL
MONITORING STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH GALES STILL APPEARING
TO BE LIKELY DURING THAT TIME.

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1129 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
1115 AM CDT

MTF/JEE

.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CDT

THROUGH TONIGHT...

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
324 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP TRENDS THIS
MORNING...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PERSISTENT FORCING THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOL/SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WORKING EAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE RFD
TERMINAL HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF OBSERVING TS IN THE NEAR
TERM. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT TO
INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE LOW
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING FOR A TWO TO
THREE HOUR WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS...AND DID NOT MAKE
ANY TIMING CHANGES AT THIS. THUNDER WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...WITH A SLOW UPWARD TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. DO THINK THE UPWARD TREND COULD BE SLOWER FOR THE
DPA/RFD WITH THESE TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BETTER PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING TO TRANSITION TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND
AFTERNOON...WITH FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO HELP SHIFT THEM OVER TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
332 AM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
9 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

634 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE ALOFT...A COOLER NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.

SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SW FROM THE
LOW...STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.
NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER SE MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

EXCELLENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. HRRR SHOWS AND EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE NEAR 00Z. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
A CERTAINTY AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE STORMS MAY EXIT BEFORE OR RIGHT NEAR 00Z. BEST FORCING
IS LOST BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WILL TREND
LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
UNITEDSTATES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN INDIANA WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
THE SECOND PASSING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THESE SYSTEMS...AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WEST
WINDS AND ONLY ACCESS TO LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS
GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MID
LEVEL SATURATION WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THUS A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULES OUT...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN PLACES NORTH AND EAST OF
INDIANA...WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME
LOW CHC POPS AT NORTH AND EAST OF INDY...MAINLY DRY POPS
SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON
SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST. THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT IS DIVERTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDIANA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SHIFT TO A COLDER FLOW
PATTERN AS WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES. NET RESULT
WILL BE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON
THEIR HEELS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE STABLE LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS AS MINIMAL GULF RETURN FLOW OCCURS TO RECOVER
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KBMG...BY ISSUANCE TIME. WILL SEE
CONVECTION LINGER IN THE KBMG AREA UNTIL ABOUT 010100Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND SURFACE GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BACK NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BY 010200Z. AT THIS TIME...DON/T THINK CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TERMINALS AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF
INITIAL LINE.

CEILINGS 040-050 EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY
SNEAK INTO KLAF AFTER 010600Z. SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 250-280
DEGREES WILL DIMINISH TO 7-10 KTS BY LATE EVENING.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

426 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN INDIANA SHOULD REACH
THE KIND TERMINAL AROUND 312200Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KT OBSERVED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE.

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE LINE...SO MAY LIFT
THE CEILINGS THIS EVENING ABOVE MVFR ON FUTURE UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

DRY SLOT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AHEAD COLD FRONT HAS FILLED IN
QUITE A BIT BUT WILL STILL CARRY A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
PRIOR TO PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR AHEAD OF
IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DESTABILIZING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM KRFD AND KBMI
TO KSTL. MODELS DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY 311900Z THAT MOVE INTO INDIANA AFFECTING KLAF
AND KHUF BY AROUND 20Z THEN KIND AND KBMG AROUND 312100Z WITH ALL
TAF SITES CLEAR OF CONVECTION BY 010000Z. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUD DECKS FROM 2000-3000 FEET PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO
WILL KEEP SUCH DECKS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS. QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE DECKS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM CLEARING TO OVERCAST DURING
THE NIGHT THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL
SCATTER OUT THE LOWER DECKS AROUND 02Z- 03Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

141 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE.
ALSO ANTICIPATE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

106 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 010200Z BUT
REDEVELOP BY 011500Z.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1240 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ARE SOUTH OF US-30 AND WEST OF I-69. COLDER WEATHER
WILL SETTLE IN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

OTRWS POTENT LL CAA WING WRAPS EWD TONIGHT IN BEHIND CDFNT
AS IT ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY AND WILL SPEED UP
PRIOR TREND OF DRYING THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW MVFR CIGS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
HIGH MVFR OR LOW VFR BY MID-LATE AFTN AS DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING
ENSUES. THIS PROCESS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SHOWERS/SCT STORMS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-LATE AFTN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION TRACK NE INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES SOME. WINDS
VEER/DIMINISH MORE WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL TONIGHT WITH LOW (MVFR
FUEL ALT) STRATOCU EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Mean troughing was over the northern and Central Plains per water
vapor imagery. A few main waves were identified in this trough...one
moving northeast into the Great Lakes, another beginning to turn
southeast out of central South Dakota, and another surging south
out of Manitoba. Some low-mid level moisture was moving across
the area ahead of the second wave and bringing a few showers to
central and eastern Kansas this afternoon. This activity should
slowly dissipate in weaker forcing, lesser moisture, and weakening
diurnal instability. Cold air advection ramps up tonight as a
second cold front pushes in from the second wave. Moisture is
much more limited behind this front but decent mixing depths could
lead to a few sprinkles in eastern areas in the midday to
afternoon hours but doesn`t seem worthy of a mention at this
point. Clearing skies and a weakening gradient should bring decent
temp falls this evening, but may level off some overnight as
mixing increases. Weakening cold air advection and the mixing
brings highs a few to several degrees cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Secondary upper trough axis lifts over the central plains into the
Midwest regions by Friday evening. Operational guidance shows weak
lift behind the cold front during the early evening period with the
12Z ECMWF developing light qpf along the trough axis. Other models
however have consistently kept the better moisture further east.
With the winds weakening and backing to the west after midnight,
areas south of Interstate 70 may become calm as sfc ridge builds to
the southwest. These light winds coupled with clear skies may
develop frost and/or freeze conditions south of Interstate 70
especially with readings in the lower 30s Saturday morning.

The weekend is shaping up to be sunny and warmer as northwest winds
increase during the afternoon between 15 and 20 mph sustained. This
weak cool advection will offset the clear skies with temps holding
into the lower to middle 60s. By Sunday, winds shift back to the
southwest and pick up to near 20 mph sustained in the afternoon.
Drier air advecting into the CWA is expected to drop minimum RH
values down to the lower 20 percent range. Fire danger conditions
are elevated during the afternoon despite most fuels beginning to
green up.

Next cold front is progged to pass through the plains dry on Monday
with only an impact on temps with readings in the 60s for highs.
Upper ridging through mid week spells for warming temps in the 70s
while overnight lows remain above freezing in the upper 30s to lower
40s. Next shortwave trough is pretty well defined on both the GFS
and ECMWF 12Z runs. The positively tilted wave is a bit more
amplified with the ECMWF along the cold front, however still evident
on both models for scattered showers and storms Tuesday evening. Dry
northwest flow aloft prevails Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance
for elevated fire danger conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Aside from lingering MVFR cigs at the Topeka terminals through
19Z, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A secondary
area of cloud cover associated with a trough axis is pushing
southeast out of Nebraska. Current trends show cigs continuing to
scatter out across SC Nebraska and NC Kansas, therefore expect
VFR, although a brief period of MVFR is not out of the question.
Winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon with sustained
WNW 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. Winds will once again
increase by 14Z Friday morning with similar speeds as today.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baerg

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Water vapor loop with RAP analysis overlay revealed a deep longwave
trough axis across central North America. There were three smaller
scale synoptic features within the pattern: 1) Eastern Iowa into the
western Great Lakes region, 2) Southern Arizona, 3) Western Dakotas
into the Nebraska Panhandle. The feature of most importance to
western Kansas weather in the short term is the System 3 as it
continued to dig south this morning. The leading edge of mid level
cloud cover was pushing into west central KS at the nose of the
potential vorticity anomaly tied to this wave. There is a secondary
surge of cooler air tied to this feature as well, however the timing
of the cold air advection will be this evening, such that there will
not be any impact in temperatures this afternoon.

Winds will increase from the same direction very late in the
afternoon through early evening, and the 850-700mb layer
frontogenesis will promote the development of widely scattered virga
showers with dewpoint temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to
around 30. A few sprinkles will reach the surface, but there is no
indication from any of the short term high resolution NWP that
anything more than isolated to widely scattered accumulating
precipitation will occur -- and if that, only a hundredth or two of
an inch. This does not support POPs higher than 20 percent, so we
will keep the forecast as sprinkles (and not light rain showers).

For tonight, high pressure at the surface will nose southward,
however there will still be enough of a pressure gradient to keep
winds in the 9 to 12 knot range. The continued downslope northwest
wind will drive dewpoints down to the 8 to 12F range along the
Colorado border overnight. Very low dewpoints will continue into
Friday, and the official forecast will reflect the much drier WRF-
ARW and ECMWF models. Cold air advection will continue in the 850-
700mb layer through tomorrow, but will be masked by the downslope
from 850mb down to the surface. Afternoon temperatures will warm to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Much of southwest Kansas is now in official drought conditions
(D1/Moderate Drought) per US Drought Monitor...primarily along and
south of the Arkansas River. The forecast period through mid next
week looks dry. The hemispheric jet stream pattern will be split
across North America through the period -- the main polar jet will
reside across southern Canada/northern CONUS as will the storm
track. The southern jet stream will be less active with a closed low
expected to form well off the southern California Coast. As long as
we continue to see a fairly fast, northern jet stream, we will not
see any precipitation (or at least meaningful precipitation) across
western Kansas. A trough will develop across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region early next week, and we should see a backdoor cold
front Monday. This would be a brief shot of cooler air which will
likely be followed be another lee trough Tuesday ahead of the next
synoptic storm system ripping across the Rockies (most likely over
us or to our north). The Tuesday system would be coming out into the
plains amidst a depleted moisture source to our south given such a
strong cold front penetration over the weekend. On the whole,
temperatures will continue to be above average with highs well into
the 70s and lower 80s ahead of fronts (Sunday and Tuesday) with
upper 60s to lower 70s behind fronts.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

There was a band of MVFR ceilings moving south toward GCK and HYS
late this morning, however with increasing insolation, the ceilings
are forecast to scatter out as they approach GCK, HYS, DDC.
Nevertheless, will probably need to include 2 or 3 hours of MVFR at
GCK, HYS and perhaps DDC given the visible satellite trends. Very
near term high resolution models are not showing this MVFR cloud
area very well, so confidence is not high in how far south the MVFR
conditions will reach early in the afternoon before dissolving.
Virga showers will develop later this afternoon along the 850-700mb
frontal zone. We will likely continue VCSH in the TAFs for GCK, DDC,
HYS, with a duration of no more than a couple hours.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 57 31 69 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 26 56 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 30 56 30 67 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 29 58 30 70 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 29 55 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
P28 33 59 33 70 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1226 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING. A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS/SCATTERED SPRINKLES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND MAINTAINED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE REMAINING SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL BRING
A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

CLOUD DECK OF BKN025 MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT 17Z IT
WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THIS WILL ADVANCE INTO KRSL/KGBD
BY 19Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE ON BUT PROBABLY NOT GET MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN KSLN/KHUT. BKN025 STILL PERSISTENT OVER KCNU FROM
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

BY 01Z SKIES AND VSBYS WILL ALL BE VFR WITH DECREASING WIND.
FRIDAY WILL HAVE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25KTS.
OTHERWISE VFR.

KRC

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DRIVE THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
ON SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 66 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 64 33 57 31 / 10 10 0 0
NEWTON 64 35 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 65 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 37 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 60 31 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 62 32 56 31 / 10 10 0 0
SALINA 64 34 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 63 33 55 31 / 10 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 65 38 60 33 / 10 10 0 0
CHANUTE 65 38 58 33 / 10 10 0 0
IOLA 64 36 56 32 / 10 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 65 38 60 32 / 10 10 0 0

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KRC
FIRE WEATHER...MWM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Updated short term and aviation sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

For the end of the business week and into the weekend, 500-hPa longwave
ridging is expected upstream. Cool low level air will slide off to the
east and downslope flow will gradually increase in strength/intensity.
In fact, by Sunday, 850-hPa temperatures in the mid teens are expected.
As a result, we should see an upswing in temperatures with 50s on Friday
to 70s on Sunday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will be possible on Sunday, however, the winds don`t look particularly
that strong. Something to watch. A backdoor cold front may work in from
the northeast on Monday and nudge temps down a bit. This will not last
long though, as westerly flow increases Tuesday with a resultant strengthening
warm air advection pattern/lowering lee sfc pressures. Will have to
watch Tuesday again for fire wx concerns. Beyond this, long range models
indicate a Rex block forming across the western United States. Downstream,
a dry NW/N flow pattern prevails across the Great Plains. The net result
is a dry forecast with pleasant temps.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 29 57 31 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 59 26 56 30 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 58 30 56 30 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 62 29 58 30 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 59 29 55 32 / 10 10 0 0
P28 65 33 59 33 / 10 10 0 0

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE...WITH A
COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS. ALOFT...A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD...WITH
A BROKEN LINE SPANNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE OUT AND AWAY FROM THEIR
FORCING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION TO MOVE
THROUGH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MEASURING IN THE END. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT JUST PAST
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUAL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAWN. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...REINFORCING THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ADVECTING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY TRANSIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER. THIS WILL SET UP SEVERAL
POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES AND FROST EVENTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
RIGHT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
USUAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OUT THE PERIOD SATURDAY...DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL...DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RESULT OF THE MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
QUICK SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF QPF SUNDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS PULLING ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL EASILY
DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A
HARD FREEZE...AND EVEN SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE SW WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
THOUGH COOL DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S DESPITE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
STARVED...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERATED FROM
THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES...BUT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AS
IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
TIME IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY EXIT
EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO PULL IN. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SOME OF THE
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD TURN INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE IS
LACKING...AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMAL WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

THE EXITING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE PULL OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT 50 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
ONCE MORE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS SET UP...ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED...ANOTHER VALLEY FROST AND OVERALL FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD...
DEEPENING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BRING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CWA TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS40
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO KEPT WITH LIKELY WORDING AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

OVERALL...MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE REMOVAL OF SOME
FROST WORDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SINCE EXITING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS
WOULD REMAIN 7KTS OR MORE. IF PRECIP AND CLOUDS DO EXIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE OF SOME CONCERN...BUT AT
THIS POINT POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS REMOVED FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...WITH LOW CLOUDS HOLDING IN UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY
DIMINISHED TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT THIS POINT. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO THE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA DOWN TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. AT ITS CURRENT
PACE...THESE STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO THE BLUEGRASS BETWEEN 6 AND
7 PM. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAKER LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD
OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED FORECAST
HIGHS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU MAR
31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

336 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK COUPLING BETWEEN THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER THE STRAITS AND
THE JET MAX OVER THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS PROVIDING A
BACKGROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RIPPLE OF ENERGY WORKING NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WILL BEGIN ENHANCING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN SHORTLY. 800-500MB LAPSE WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
7C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 18Z RAP SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG 21-00Z THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. INTRUSION
OF THE LLJ WILL FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED
WITH TIME GIVEN ATTENDANT CAPPING, BUT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN
THE ALREADY STRONG MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 70 KNOTS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN TEMPERED, HOWEVER,
GIVEN CONFINEMENT OF MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR TO THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED SFC-800MB LAYER. TORNADIC THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND POOR SRH. TSTORMS ARE STILL
TIMED TO ROLL THROUGH APPROX 21-00Z.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY
IMPRESSIVE DUE NORTH TRANSPORT OFF THE CA COAST, WILL DRIVE A SERIES
OF HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ATTENTION FOR FRIDAY TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS WAVE
DIGGING INTO NEBRASKA AT PRESS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT`S
THUNDERSTORMS, COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND H85 TEMPS FROM NEAR 10C TO
AROUND -3C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
GROWTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS
IT RACES NORTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
PEAK HEATING ON FRI AFTN. TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.

VERY COMPACT AND VERY DYNAMIC WAVE IS STILL BEING MODELED FOR
SATURDAY. THE WAVE WILL HAVE ORIGINS IN THE JET STREAK DEVELOPING
OVER NUNAVUT TODAY WHICH WILL RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ADJUSTS TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE. VERY POTENT VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRUTE FORCE
DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADDITION TO STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MOST LOCATIONS COULD BE ALL, OR MOSTLY, SNOW. 12Z NAM PROGS
SUGGEST THAT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A QUICKLY MATURING CYCLONE FEATURING A DEVELOPING TROWAL AND MOST
LIKELY A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE VORT MAX ALOFT AS WELL.
THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE ADVISORY TYPE OF
EVENT, MAINLY DUE TO SHORT DURATION. THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY FAVOR HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS SATURDAY
NEARS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE END
OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

.MARINE...

FIRM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS LATE
TODAY...AND WITH PERIODIC STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING....WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. A BRIEF WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND POINTS SOUTH. A MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES DURING THE WEEKEND.

.HYDROLOGY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING WITHIN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING
HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 132 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICHIGAN ON GUSTY SSW WINDS.
ANY BREAKS WILL FILL BACK IN AS A SURFACE TROUGH WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA 21Z-24Z WITH SCT-BKN CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CIGS
WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURN AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CROSSES NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO LAKE HURON.

FOR DTW...PREVAILING S-SSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE 21Z TO
24Z TIME FRAME AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE AREA OF A POSSIBLE
INCLUSION AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE TODAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

* LOW TO MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AIRSPACE 21Z-24Z.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

DISCUSSION...JVC/RK
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....!--NOT SENT--!
AVIATION.....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY AND SNOW
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

BOTTOM LINE...COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CREST AROUN 9.3 FEET ON SATURDAY.
THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 9.0 FEET... EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
COTTAGES AND HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF NEWAYGO ON RIVERVIEW DRIVE IN
BRIDGETON TOWNSHIP AND PEPPERIDGE IN ASHLAND TOWNSHIP.

OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
HAS RECEIVED 1.00-1.75 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR SINCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG STORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR AS
THE DRY LINE OVER SW AR/NW LA HAS BEGUN PLOWING INTO THE THE
WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NE LA/SE AR. THE HRRR HAS HAD THIS
SCENARIO PEGGED WELL TODAY AND SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE
ALONG THE DRY LINE AS WELL AS DISCRETE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD. VERTICAL
TOTALS AROUND 30 ARE SUPPORTING LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND CAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS THERMO ENVIRONMENT IS OCCCURING IN AN
IMPRESSIVELY SHEARED WIND FIELD WITH 0-1KM SHEAR FROM 25-30 KNOTS AND
200-300 SRH. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING INTO AL AND DECREASING IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE INHERITED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIMARILY LEFTOVER FROM LAST
NIGHTS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING
TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH PRECIP SCENARIO TONIGHT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. MAY
STILL HAVE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE
TRAINING CELLS CAN SET UP.

ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
MEAN A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION FRIDAY. BOUNDARY DOES NOT LOOK AS
THOUGH IT WILL CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE DEPTH OF DRY
AIR CAN INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

GOING FORWARD INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
TX RESULTING IN CONVERGING FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOOKS TO SET UP NICE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME REINFORCEMENT OF THE DRY/COOL AIR
OVER THE NE BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING./26/

.AVIATION...SEVERAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK, WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THROUGH THE EVENING, SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
50 KT WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. SOME VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE DELTA TO OVERNIGHT IN SE MS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG MAY LINGER AT PIB/HBG WELL INTO THE MORNING
FRIDAY. /DL/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 59 72 48 65 / 77 48 35 8
MERIDIAN 62 72 49 66 / 80 66 32 12
VICKSBURG 58 70 48 66 / 63 38 29 8
HATTIESBURG 67 72 52 69 / 86 87 51 10
NATCHEZ 61 72 49 65 / 66 66 33 8
GREENVILLE 54 70 46 65 / 50 17 17 6
GREENWOOD 54 71 45 64 / 74 19 19 7

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
043>046-048>066-072>074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Cold front is through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois,
and should clear the CWFA by 22-23Z. Thunderstorm threat should be
ending with the FROPA. Should see temperatures fall off pretty
quickly this evening in west-northwest flow and we should bottom out
at least 10-15 dgrees colder than this morning. Another well
defined shortwave currently over Nebraska and the Dakotas will move
southeast overnight and push a reinforcing shot of cool air and a
corresponding chance of some light rain showers/sprinkles over
northern portions of the CWFA. Another shortwave will dip into the
midwest on Friday bringing another chance of showers to northern
sections of the area Friday afternoon. Like Friday morning lows,
highs Friday afternoon will be around 10 degrees cooler than today`s
highs.

Carney

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Seesaw temps expected thru the forecast period.

Begin the period with a back door fnt dropping into the area late
in the day Sat. Given the NW flow, temps will be cooler anyway, but
esp so across nrn portions of the CWA where the fnt will reach
during max heating. Flow becomes swly at low levels with thermal
ridge building into the area to warm up Sun and somewhat on Mon,
before the a fairly strong cdfnt pushes thru the region bringing
another shot of cold air. Have kept this fropa dry for now, but if
timing slows, there may be enuf CAA for some SHRA to develop.

This pattern repeats itself thru the remainder of the forecast. The
best chance for precip will be Wed as a system drops into the
area.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A cold front is moving through the area and is now almost all the
way through east central Missouri into southwest Illinois.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with low MVFR and
IFR visibilities are likely...but these low conditions should not
last very long as the storms are moving quickly. MVFR ceilings
behind the front will lift to VFR later this afternoon. Another
upper level disturbance will bring more cloudiness to the region
late tonight and Friday...along with a chance for light rain
primarily across northern portions of the area. Not very high
confidence in ceiling heights for tomorrow...so am sticking with
VFR for now.

Specifics for KSTL:

Cold front is moving through the metro area and should be through
KSTL by 18Z. There are MVFR ceilings west of the terminal which
could move into the area for a few hours this afternoon...but I
expect the ceiling to rise by the end of the afternoon. VFR
conditions and west-northwest flow is expected to prevail
thereafter.

Carney

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 45 59 38 59 / 10 10 5 0
Quincy 40 52 34 54 / 30 30 10 0
Columbia 40 56 35 60 / 10 10 5 0
Jefferson City 41 58 35 61 / 10 10 5 0
Salem 43 57 37 58 / 10 5 10 0
Farmington 42 61 35 61 / 10 5 5 0

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Dry Weather with Elevated Fire Weather Concerns through this
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A cold front have moved across the Ozarks region today ushering a
cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface high pressure
will settle into the region tonight while an upper level trough
transitions eastward across the central U.S. The passage of this
trough will maintain intervals of clouds across the area tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the 30s but readings readings are
expected to stay above freezing.

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region
Friday but a substantial pressure gradient will maintain gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds.

These gusty winds along with a dry airmass will lead to an
elevated fire weather risk.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into the region Friday night
providing more optimum conditions for radiational cooling. Expect
overnight lows Friday night to fall to near or just below the
freezing mark across much of the Ozark Plateau. This will present
the potential for a light freeze and light frost.

A dry frontal passage is expected Saturday within a northwesterly
upper level flow regime. Increased winds and wind shift associated
with the frontal passage will lead to an enhanced fire weather
risk.

A warming trend but a continued fire weather risk will continue
Sunday as southerly winds return. Yet another dry frontal passage
will occur Monday.

The next chance of precipitation may arrive the middle of next
week as an upper level trough and associated front push across the
region.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Been in and out of MVFR conditions at SGF/JLN with this lower
cloud band, but should improve to VFR cloudiness during the
afternoon. Remainder of TAF should be in VFR with wind speeds
lessening during the evening. Despite a strong shortwave pushing
through late tonight into Friday, moisture will be limited and no
precipitation is expected.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Mainly dry conditions but variable temperatures are on tap for the
next several days as several upper level troughs dig through the
northern CONUS. Cooler air will continue to filter down Friday as
the parent trough to yesterday`s system slides across the forecast
area, and will combine with another batch of stratus to hold highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few very light rain showers are
possible this evening and again tomorrow afternoon in association
with two upper vorticity maxima passing through the upper trough,
but moisture will be too low for much, if any, accumulation. The
expected cloud cover and resultant cooler temperatures should also
keep fire danger concerns low, despite continued breezy conditions
and falling dewpoints tomorrow afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then filter in late tomorrow night and
into Saturday morning, and when considered alongside cooler
temperatures throughout the column and departing cloud cover, could
result in patchy frost especially across far northern Missouri.

Warmer temperatures will build back in this weekend and reach a high
point Sunday in the mid 70s as upper-level flow flattens and surface
flow returns to the south. A cold front will push through the region
Sunday night, but should hold off until after midnight, keeping mild
conditions around for any evening activities across the region.

The brevity of moisture return prior to Sunday, northern position of
the shortwave trough, and general lack of much additional moisture
accompanying Sunday night`s frontal passage should keep the region
dry; however, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with
the next system in its wake, which should pass through late Tuesday
night or Wednesday. Colder temperatures may return in earnest by the
end of next week, just beyond the end of the forecast period;
however, the main upper trough does dig in more to our east, and
could only brush the forecast area before departing, perhaps leaving
the worst of the impacts east of the CWA as well.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MVFR stratus will continue to gradually lift, reaching 3 kft or above
between 18z-20z at all TAF sites. Ceilings will then scatter out this
evening, until a second round of stratus drops down from the NW on
Friday morning. Winds will remain out of the northwest at sustained
speeds between 12-15 kts, occasionally gusting to around 20 kts
during daylight hours both days.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1250 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Carney

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Browning

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Browning

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with
periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of
fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by
afternoon.

West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this
evening.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Variable cloudiness is expected today across the area, with
periods of IFR this morning with scattered stratus and a bit of
fog. A general improvement in conditions is expected by
afternoon.

West winds will be moderately gusty today, before decreasing this
evening.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
401 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Most of the precip shift east of the cwfa before 9-10 am.

A shortwave will move southeast in the overall nw flow pattern
reaching IA/MO border by 12z/7am Fri. This will push a reinforcing shot
of colder/dry air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
317 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd

.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Convection could linger into Thursday morning mainly across the
eastern Ozarks as the passage of the front and dry line will be
somewhat delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

More tranquil weather will return for the remainder of the week
into the weekend as the region comes under influence of a more
northwesterly upper level flow.

Look for winds to become westerly late tonight and through
Thursday.

Safe Travels.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1201 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

GKS

.SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Temps shud warm quickly ahead of the next system bringing yet
another chance for precip.

Tilly

.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2016

Specifics for KSTL:

Glass

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1212 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND
ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM TO MORE IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS FROM THE WIND GUST
ALGORITHM TO FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH CONSRAW. INCREASED SKY COVER
FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO WHERE THE AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL MORE LIKELY BE AS THE QUICK-HITTING WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS MIXED IN.

SO OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SEESAWING TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

338 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

FOLLOWING TWO FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TRACKING RATHER QUICKLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION HAS PRODUCED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SO FAR TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY EARLY EVENING. A SECOND FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...WAS
KICKING UP SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL TRACK
THIS AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE HRRR POP TRENDS...
BUT HAD TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS ITS MOVING A BIT
FASTER THAN THE HRRR TIME LAG ENSEMBLE.

FOR THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WIND GUSTS EARLIER
TODAY AROUND 55 MPH WERE SEEN AT HETTINGER. WINDS NOW FALLING TO
THE MID 30S FOR GUSTS AND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

ON FRIDAY...THE PRECIP WILL END BY SUNRISE. WILL STILL HAVE A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH FRIDAY 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
BRING A TASTE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH JUST A SMALL HINT OF CAPE ON
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT
THIS TIME BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A MENTION.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...DO NOT SEE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT WINDS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH..

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
AREAS MVFR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1201 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATED THE POPS WITH THE TIME LAG ENSEMBLE HRRR AND HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE CRITICAL POINT BETWEEN 34 AND 37
DEGREES SO RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW WILL BE THE WEATHER. PLACES
LIKE DENHOFF IN SHERIDAN COUNTY LIKELY TO GET ABOUT 2 INCHES.
OTHER LOCATIONS AND INCH OR LESS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

TONIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR OVER
MANY LOCATIONS AFTER 21Z. LATER TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CIGS DIMINISHING TO MVFR
LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV/WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

912 AM PDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT WITH
COOLER NIGHTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING BACK SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND
TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SEEING SOME COASTAL LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AGAIN
RISE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MONITORING A STRATUS BANK OUT 50 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE THIS MORNING THAT
THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS DON`T HAVE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WRF ARW
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON HOW THIS MAY IMPACT THE COAST
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR WINDS AND WRF ARW WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH SHOW A SHALLOW PUSH OF MARINE STRATUS INTO THE
COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH MOST OF THE
STRATUS LIKELY WON`T MAKE IT EAST OF THE COAST RANGE...SOME PATCHY
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COAST RANGE AND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING FOR ANOTHER SUNNY BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. ALONG THE COAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
WITH STRATUS PROBABLY RETREATING OFFSHORE AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SETS
UP BY LATE MORNING.

REST OF DISCUSSION UNCHANGED AND REMAINS VALID.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT INLAND AND FLATTEN SOME AS A WEAK
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER ON SAYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE WEAK
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL SPREAD SOME MARINE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK
UP AGAINST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS WITH SOME GAPS IN THE CLOUDS CLOSER
TO THE COAST RANGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL THE CLOUDS DO NOT LOOK VERY DEEP OR CONNECTED. SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON...AND WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST OF OREGON LATER IN THE DAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
INLAND AREAS ARE LOOKING DRY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THOSE
TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. MCCOY/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THIS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE
MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST WE MAY GET RIDGING TO BUILD BACK UP MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. A TRICKIER
FCST FOR THE COAST...AS MARINE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONTO THE COAST. THE
FCST MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE
COAST THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. PYLE

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH 10 TO 15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PYLE/64

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1227 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:

IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.

TVT

.AVIATION...18Z TAF SET

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIKELY COME TO AN END AT JBR FOR
THIS TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT.

STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT
MKL...MEM AND TUP. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. PREVAILING CIGS WILL BE MVFR.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-22Z...MKL FROM 21-24Z...AND TUP 22-02Z.
TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

605 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...LEADING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT THURSDAY...

NEXT 6 HOURS...6PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR HAVE PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 58 THIS EVENING. ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO
POSSIBLE. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 58...CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE...BUT
AIRMASS IS HAVING TROUBLE BECOMING SATURATED...SO LEANED AWAY FROM
ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS FROM HIGHWAY 460 NORTHWARD UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BE AWAITING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM CENTRAL
TN/KY. SHORT TERM ENHANCED MODELS BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM...THEN SPREADING EAST AFTER
2AM.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ATTACHED TO THIS FRONT WHILE MODELS
ARE TRACKING ONE WAVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA
AND ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE
MOST PART...ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF I64
IN VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TOWARDS I40 IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
WILL PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT IF THE FRONT
STALLS FARTHER TO THE WEST...SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL COME IN THE WAY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MILD TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S EAST. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY
FRIDAY AND A SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80F OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT A SLOWER EXIT TO THE SHOWERS AND FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO HOLD
STEADY OVER THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. AS WE
HEAD TOWARD SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS IS GOING TO PUSH THE MAIN FRONT TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WILL TAKE PLACE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING IN AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME HIGH WINDS OVER THE TYPICAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS SAT NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BRING A DUSTING TO THE GRASSY SURFACES OF SE WV BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST.

SUNDAY WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO
MID 50S EAST.

FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY SEE A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN VALLEYS
AND RIDGES...BUT OVERALL LOWS IN THE 30S EXPECTED CWA WIDE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EXPECT A CLIPPER TO MOVE ACROSS MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY APPEARS MAINLY DRY AND COOL WITH SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER THAT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL STAY AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON
STARTING IN THE WEST...THEN IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AS PREFRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 30 KNOTS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. LIFT AND FORCING ARE STRONGER
TONIGHT...AND A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA (KDAN) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT STALL FARTHER
WEST...KLYH COULD GET IN ON SOME OF THIS ACTION. FOR NOW... MODELS
ARE KEEPING CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

129 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF IS STEALING SOME OF OUR MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE RAIN IS BEING DELAYED. RAIN MAY ENTER THE NORTH CAROLINA
HIGH COUNTY AFTER 400 PM THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AS OF 950 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...RCS