Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/29/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG INTO THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
RETURNS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 733 PM EDT...THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR VERY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT. SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM ARE STILL
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE
A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATER THIS
EVENING. AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
WILL GENERALLY BE DONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.
MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND BECOMING GUSTY.
WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION ALOFT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTS WILL REACH 30-50 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL WESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLING OFF DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO FILL IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE
LOW STILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND BERKSHIRES AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BECOMING LIGHT AND ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR IT WILL GET CHILLY/COLD
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY THANKS TO
SUNSHINE AND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE HIGH.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW 850 HPA TEMPS TO SURGE TO ABOVE
10 DEGREES C FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING STORM...THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE STORM/S COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
THURS NIGHT.
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING...AND IT MAY WIND UP STALLING JUST TO OUR EAST OF OUR
AREA FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE
NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FOR INTO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MID
50S TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL
AROUND.
HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
OVER THE WEEKEND...AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO WORK ITS WAY
IN. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON
SATURDAY...AND ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR. PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
EVERYWHERE...EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL START TO MOVE AWAY BY
MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT AND INTO MOST OF
TUESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-35 KTS EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT
KALB/KPSF...AND WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE STORM NEARBY...A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THESE BRIEF
PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4-6 KFT. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD END
BY 10 PM-MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN BKN OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
START TO BECOME SCT BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SKC BY THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...BKN CIGS AT AROUND
5 KFT MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY AT KPSF...WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY IN THE EVENING.
WED-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...LIKELY ONLY SEE RH VALUES REACHING
UP TO AROUND 75 PERCENT.
ON TUESDAY...AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND BE IN THE 30S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
WITH VALUES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RH ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS VALUES
IN THE 20S. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL COMES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.
THE RAINFALL REPORTS WE RECEIVED TODAY RANGED FROM 0.15 UP TO
0.75 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
...EXTENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...
TUE-SUN...DRYING IS INDICATED TUE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CAPE...AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS STILL SHOWS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WHICH WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AND MOVE WELL INLAND ON
TUE. TEMPS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE COLD (MINUS 14-15 CELSIUS AT
500MB) SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIALLY LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD.
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE
FLOW WED. AN OVERALL MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS INDICATED AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH THUNDER CHANCES
SHIFTED WELL INLAND STILL LOOK IN ORDER. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON FRI
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND RAISE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. BOTH THE 00Z/12Z GFS BRING
POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THU IN THE NORTH...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA FRI. IF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE REALIZED FRI...RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY RANGE MAY BECOME NECESSARY. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.
THE 00Z/12Z GFS MODEL RUNS SHOVE THE NEXT FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY THE
WEEKEND AND SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING/SLIGHT COOLING. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 24 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE JUST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. IF THE FRONT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS OVER THE AREA WITH ISO-SCT CIGS AND VSBY
INTERRUPTED BY SCT PCPN AND A FEW STORMS. EXPECT LCL REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR THROUGH 28/03Z. CONDS BECMG VFR AFT 28/04Z.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND ASCD STRATUS CIGS NR
FL006-010 POSSIBLE FM 28/08Z-28/13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3
TO 4 FT OFFSHORE. THE PRIMARY OPEN WATER THREAT WL BE OCCASIONAL
COASTAL STORMS MOVING E-NE INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MON NIGHT-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA MON NIGHT/TUE. SWRLY WINDS WILL
VEER WEST...THEN NW MON OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL MON EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE LATE MON INTO TUE AS
THE FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS ACROSS THE WATERS. IT LOOKS DRIER
OVERALL BUT A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STRONG STORMS EXISTS TUE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH IS SHOWN BRIDGING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT-WED
WITH WINDS FRESHENING OUT OF THE EAST. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED BUT MAIN CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE WELL INLAND. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ON THU AND SPEEDS MAY BE
NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH MAY DIP INTO THE
AREA LATE ON FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...INCLUDING
OFFSHORE MOVING CELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 84 63 79 / 40 40 20 20
MCO 73 87 68 84 / 30 50 20 30
MLB 71 86 68 82 / 30 50 30 40
VRB 70 86 68 84 / 30 50 30 40
LEE 73 86 67 84 / 30 40 20 30
SFB 71 85 67 82 / 30 40 20 20
ORL 73 85 68 83 / 30 40 20 30
FPR 70 87 67 84 / 20 50 30 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 14Z...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ALONG A
WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH AN SMW OR
TWO POSSIBLE FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN MODEST HAIL AND WIND
THREAT.
PRECIP THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS COMING INTO FOCUS. MODEST
SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND
TIMING...BUT GENERAL PATTERNS ARE BECOMING CLEAR. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES ACROSS
OUR CWA TODAY. HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING P-WATS NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL AREAS. ALOFT...A BROAD ZONE OF 200 MB DIFLUENCE WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. NEAR
100 POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE ALL OF THE ELEMENTS FOR RAINFALL COME TOGETHER GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
CWA. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
ATTM...UNLESS TRAINING OF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SO THERE
ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS REACHED THE SURFACE THUS FAR THIS
MORNING...AND TEMPS ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...TO
MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT
LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AS THEY DID YESTERDAY.
THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...A
WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE TEMPS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER GIVEN THE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMES ZONAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME DOWNSLOPING...OFF OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA SO
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DOWNSLOPING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD DAMPEN TEMPERATURE RISES.
HOWEVER...IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR THEY MOVE IN
LATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT
STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT TAPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THAT KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO KSAV AND WILL LIKELY REACH KCHS BY RELEASE
TIME. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LIFTING A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. WILL
NEED TO CARRY CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 14Z. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
THE KCHS TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
BRIEF. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
LATER TODAY. TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT LONG DURATION
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ONCE SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE IN. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. THE
INTRODUCTION OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETUP. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL END BY MID-EVENING WITH A RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS
TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY END
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL JETTING COULD
ENHANCE THE WIND FIELD A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE AND CHARLESTON COUNTY LEGS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SW FLOW WILL RAMP UP MONDAY BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 15 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BUT MODELS STILL NEED
TO COME TOGETHER FOR TIMING THE SURGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE PINCHED GRADIENTS. DURING THIS TIME WINDS AND SEAS
WILL UNDERGO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK. WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE
TRANQUIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/ST
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/ST
MARINE...MS/ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
702 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORE WET WEATHER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN A
WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR BENEATH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. A NUMBER
OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. IT IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SETUP IN THE
ABSENCE OF A STRONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND INDEED THERE MAY BE
SEVERAL CONCENTRATED AREAS THAT GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER TIME.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY IN ANY ONE AREA...IT DOES
APPEAR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH. CATEGORICAL POPS
NEAR 100 PERCENT IS ORDER FOR ALL AREAS FOR THIS REASON.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS
THIS IS WHEN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PEAK BENEATH A RIBBON
OF PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES AND A CORRIDOR OF BROAD 250 HPA
DIFLUENCE. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
ATTM...UNLESS TRAINING OF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SO THERE
ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S DESPITE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN LATER TODAY.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE MORNING...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. THERE
IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY BEING DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED EARLIER ACTIVITY AND SOME UPPER FORCING
INDUCED BY PASSING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES. THE AXIS OF RAIN WILL
STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND
WITH LOWER- MID 60S AT THE COAST.
MONDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMES ZONAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME DOWNSLOPING...OFF OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA SO
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DOWNSLOPING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD DAMPEN TEMPERATURE RISES.
HOWEVER...IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR THEY MOVE IN
LATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT
STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT TAPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THAT KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO KSAV AND WILL LIKELY REACH KCHS BY RELEASE
TIME. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LIFTING A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. WILL
NEED TO CARRY CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 14Z. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
THE KCHS TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
BRIEF. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
LATER TODAY. TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT LONG DURATION
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ONCE SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE IN. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. THE
INTRODUCTION OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETUP. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL END BY MID-EVENING WITH A RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS
TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY END
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL JETTING COULD
ENHANCE THE WIND FIELD A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE AND CHARLESTON COUNTY LEGS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SW FLOW WILL RAMP UP MONDAY BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 15 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BUT MODELS STILL NEED
TO COME TOGETHER FOR TIMING THE SURGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE PINCHED GRADIENTS. DURING THIS TIME WINDS AND SEAS
WILL UNDERGO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK. WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE
TRANQUIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...THE COMBINATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUNDS COULD SUPPORT LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED. RAP/H3R ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASSENT. POPS WILL BE
REALIGNED TO THIS THINKING WITH GRIDDED POPS MAXING OUT AT 40-50
PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 30 PERCENT INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.
TODAY...MORE WET WEATHER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN
A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR BENEATH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. A
NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. IT IS PROVING
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
SETUP IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND INDEED
THERE MAY BE SEVERAL CONCENTRATED AREAS THAT GRADUALLY EVOLVE
OVER TIME. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY IN ANY ONE
AREA...IT DOES APPEAR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE THROUGH.
CATEGORICAL POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT IS ORDER FOR ALL AREAS FOR THIS
REASON.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS
THIS IS WHEN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PEAK BENEATH A RIBBON
OF PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES AND A CORRIDOR OF BROAD 250 HPA
DIFLUENCE. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LOOKS FAIRLY LOW
ATTM...UNLESS TRAINING OF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...SO THERE
ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S DESPITE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN LATER TODAY.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE MORNING...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. THERE
IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY BEING DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED EARLIER ACTIVITY AND SOME UPPER FORCING
INDUCED BY PASSING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES. THE AXIS OF RAIN WILL
STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND
WITH LOWER- MID 60S AT THE COAST.
MONDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMES ZONAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME DOWNSLOPING...OFF OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS HINT AT SOME REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA SO
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DOWNSLOPING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR
REGION. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD DAMPEN TEMPERATURE RISES.
HOWEVER...IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR THEY MOVE IN
LATER THAN EXPECTED...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT
STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT TAPS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THAT KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH TERMINALS...
BUT LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST. SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 09-10Z AS COASTAL SHOWERS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE RISK FOR TSTMS PRIOR TO SUNRISE LOOKS LOW.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA. THE GREATER RISK FOR TSTMS WILL BE AT
KSAV WHERE INSTABILITY WILL THE HIGHEST. LOOKS FOR GENERALLY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OCCUR. WILL LIMIT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS
TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY END
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL JETTING COULD
ENHANCE THE WIND FIELD A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE AND CHARLESTON COUNTY LEGS. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SW FLOW WILL RAMP UP MONDAY BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 15 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BUT MODELS STILL NEED
TO COME TOGETHER FOR TIMING THE SURGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE PINCHED GRADIENTS. DURING THIS TIME WINDS AND SEAS
WILL UNDERGO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK. WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE
TRANQUIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/MS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
858 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Made a few minor tweaks to temperatures and potential for patchy
fog/frost overnight.
At 01z/8pm CDT, high pressure was centered between Peoria and
Bloomington. The axis of this high will drift into eastern IL
overnight. This will allow dew points to drop a few degrees in
eastern Illinois, which is where the coldest temperatures near
freezing should be. However, with very shallow moisture trapped at
and just above the surface, this same area - from about
Bloomington through Tuscola to Paris and north should see patchy
fog formation after 3-4 am. Where the patchy fog forms, spots of
slightly warmer temperatures can be expected.
Generally from Peoria-Springfield and locations to the west, a
light southeast wind flow should develop before daybreak as the
ridge axis passes to the east. This will result in somewhat
warmer temperatures from 35-38, and less of a likelihood of frost.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Quiet night expected over Central Illinois as high pressure builds
into the region. As the ridge axis slips over ILX, the winds will
be relatively light and variable before a southeasterly fetch starts
back up again towards morning. Bigger concern will be for fog
development as the cu field to the northeast has prevented deep
mixing out of the llvl moisture. Afternoon xover temps are more in
the upper 30s, with overnight lows under them. Have started with
the patchy fog in the NE... but potential is there to spread the
mention considerably for more of Central Illinois. Same low level
moisture will potentially set up for some patchy frost development
in low lying areas. Tender vegetation that has already started
in the southeast may be at risk.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Main concerns beyond the short term continue to be the weather
system for mid week. So after a brief period of dry high pressure
Tue and Tue night, pcpn begins to move back into the area Wed.
Models continue to differ on timing of when pcpn will move into the
area, with GFS and Canadian bringing in pcpn in the morning while
the NAM and ECMWF do not really bring it in until the afternoon.
With the possibility of some pcpn making it into the area as left-
over from Tue night`s pcpn, will have chance pcpn in the morning.
The chance of pcpn should continue into the afternoon as the system
and left-over boundaries continue. However, believe the main thrust
of the system/pcpn will likely be Wed night. So will keep pops in
the categorical area and have showers and thunderstorms through the
period. As the system moves east Thur, thunder chances will move
east, but showers will still be possible Thur morning. Though the
NAM shows some wrap-around type pcpn in the area, believe dry
weather should be expected for Thur afternoon.
As the 500 trough rotates through the area behind the system, a
slight chance of showers will be needed for Thur night and Friday.
Beyond this, dry weather is expected into the weekend as
northwesterly flow dominates the weather pattern.
Temps will be above normal for the next several days, but then cool
some after the next system...then over the weekend, temps will
slowly warm again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface high pressure in west central Illinois will be the
prevailing feature during the TAF period across central and
eastern Illinois. Most locations have already gone to light and
variable wind with a mostly clear sky. Just a few cumulus are
lingering in eastern Illinois, with scattered cirrus approaching
western Illinois.
The main concern late tonight and toward daybreak will be for the
development of patchy fog in east central IL. Many of the short
range models show the ridge axis in this area with a bit higher
moisture trapped at and just above the surface. The HRRR and RAP
seem to be a bit too agressive with the moisture, so when the
cross over temperature is lowered a few degrees into the middle
30, it points to mainly MVFR fog at BMI and CMI. Will keep an eye
on short range model trends through the evening as there may be
pockets of IFR fog that develop in the vicinity of CMI and toward
the Indiana border.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
649 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 AM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN INVOLVES THE STRATUS DECK AND TIMING
ITS DEPARTURE TODAY AND SECONDARILY, THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. GOES IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SLOWING SINCE
EARLY THIS EVENING, WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST STRATUS HANGING
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS EASTERN CWA AND LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HOLES HAVE POPPED IN THE STRATUS DECK
RECENTLY OVER WISCONSIN, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HOLES PROBABLY
OPENING UP WITH SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TODAY. EVEN SO,
MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED AND THROW IN A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOK FOR
EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE SUNNY WITH TYPICAL EARLY SPRING TEMPS, RANGING FROM
40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MID-UPPER 50S WELL INLAND.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ONCE AGAIN SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THINKING TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN POPS WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
FEATURE SHALLOW SATURATION...BUT DO SEE MORE IMPRESSIVE OMEGA VALUES
FROM THE MODELS TODAY. THE ONLY CAPE TO SPEAK OF IS ELEVATED...SO
THINKING WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO PERU LINE. THIS
REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD SEE
WINDS GUSTIER CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HAVE GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...BUT COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT IF THE GFS AND ITS
STRONGER LOW ARE CORRECT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF OUR WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECTING THE DYING STORMS AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP ALONG THE LOWS COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WET NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. DEFINITELY COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL.
SHOWERS PUSH EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOOK A BIT SLOWER SO RAISED HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY. HAVE
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR RFD TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS NW
INDIANA. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH WEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 35-40 MPH POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THINKING THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
DRY WITH SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK DOWNRIGHT
COLD. LOWS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO FROST. SO DESPITE THE WARMER CONDITIONS LATELY...WOULD
NOT SUGGEST PLANTING ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS JUST YET.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE: FOG/BR POTENTIAL MAINLY AT DPA/RFD OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND LAKE BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY MADE IT TO OHARE AND SHIFTED WINDS TO EAST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND/SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED AT MDW
AND SHOULD DO SO QUICKLY AT ORD AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ENABLE SOME PATCHY FOG/BR TO FORM INLAND. THINK THAT DPA AND RFD
HAVE BEST CHANCE TO VSBY REDUCTIONS...SO INCLUDED MVFR BR THERE
FROM 09-13Z. DPA COULD POTENTIALLY DIP TO IFR VSBY. AFTER ANY
PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITH FULL SUN...LARGE SCALE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE SETUP TO BACK THE
WINDS EAST WITH A LAKE BREEZE FOR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHEAST
DIRECTION AT GYY. GIVEN WIND SPEED TRENDS TODAY...10 KT SPEEDS
APPEAR PROBABLE AGAIN AT ORD/MDW. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KT IN TAF IS MEDIUM. FOR RFD AREA...HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTINESS OF SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
326 PM CDT
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS VEER
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO 20 KT BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WEDNESDAY AS WE ARE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW OVER THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS FEATURE ENOUGH
STABILITY OVER THE LAKE TO MAKE ME THINK WE WILL NOT SEE GALES AHEAD
OF THE LOW. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE. WIND
DIRECTION WILL DIRECTLY DEPEND ON THE LOW/S PATH SO ONLY HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION THURSDAY. ALSO DECIDED TO
KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE BASED ON GUIDANCE AND A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS...POSSIBLY GALES...SATURDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
645 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Quiet night expected over Central Illinois as high pressure builds
into the region. As the ridge axis slips over ILX, the winds will
be relatively light and variable before a southeasterly fetch starts
back up again towards morning. Bigger concern will be for fog
development as the cu field to the northeast has prevented deep
mixing out of the llvl moisture. Afternoon xover temps are more in
the upper 30s, with overnight lows under them. Have started with
the patchy fog in the NE... but potential is there to spread the
mention considerably for more of Central Illinois. Same low level
moisture will potentially set up for some patchy frost development
in low lying areas. Tender vegetation that has already started
in the southeast may be at risk.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Main concerns beyond the short term continue to be the weather
system for mid week. So after a brief period of dry high pressure
Tue and Tue night, pcpn begins to move back into the area Wed.
Models continue to differ on timing of when pcpn will move into the
area, with GFS and Canadian bringing in pcpn in the morning while
the NAM and ECMWF do not really bring it in until the afternoon.
With the possibility of some pcpn making it into the area as left-
over from Tue night`s pcpn, will have chance pcpn in the morning.
The chance of pcpn should continue into the afternoon as the system
and left-over boundaries continue. However, believe the main thrust
of the system/pcpn will likely be Wed night. So will keep pops in
the categorical area and have showers and thunderstorms through the
period. As the system moves east Thur, thunder chances will move
east, but showers will still be possible Thur morning. Though the
NAM shows some wrap-around type pcpn in the area, believe dry
weather should be expected for Thur afternoon.
As the 500 trough rotates through the area behind the system, a
slight chance of showers will be needed for Thur night and Friday.
Beyond this, dry weather is expected into the weekend as
northwesterly flow dominates the weather pattern.
Temps will be above normal for the next several days, but then cool
some after the next system...then over the weekend, temps will
slowly warm again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface high pressure in west central Illinois will be the
prevailing feature during the TAF period across central and
eastern Illinois. Most locations have already gone to light and
variable wind with a mostly clear sky. Just a few cumulus are
lingering in eastern Illinois, with scattered cirrus approaching
western Illinois.
The main concern late tonight and toward daybreak will be for the
development of patchy fog in east central IL. Many of the short
range models show the ridge axis in this area with a bit higher
moisture trapped at and just above the surface. The HRRR and RAP
seem to be a bit too agressive with the moisture, so when the
cross over temperature is lowered a few degrees into the middle
30, it points to mainly MVFR fog at BMI and CMI. Will keep an eye
on short range model trends through the evening as there may be
pockets of IFR fog that develop in the vicinity of CMI and toward
the Indiana border.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1235 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE RAIN
SHOWER TIMING ON SUNDAY.
IT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAINLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. A LAKE BREEZE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...WITH A EASTERLY WIND SHIFT OF COOLER LAKE
MODIFIED AIR IN ITS WAKE. OTHERWISE...HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEATHER DISTURBANCES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DECENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
COLORADO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
COLD FRONT...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
PUSHED OFF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NOT UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS VERY LOW WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHWARDS FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN INDIANA. WHILE IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR...IT APPEARS THEY WOULD BE
CONFINED TO MY FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA...AND AS A RESULT HAVE CONTINUED
TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION...IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM NICELY OVER WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
BEING FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REACH 11C OVER MY SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL GET INTO THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 IN AND AROUND THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BEFORE THE RAIN
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD MORNING WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 PM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AFTER A QUIET FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE REMAINDER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON OR
NEAR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
BEHIND THIS STEERING IN STRONGLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR.
THE FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AS NOTED IN THE SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA INCLUDING IN THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SO CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY CLEAR BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A
WELL-DEFINED LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING IN NEAR-LAKE LOCATIONS. LOCAL CLIMO WOULD SAY ABOUT A
7-10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM LAKESIDE AREAS TO WELL
INLAND. LESS LAKE COOLING IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE DURING MIDWEEK. WITH NEARLY TWO FULL DAYS OF MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF
1.15 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER 55 ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON/NEAR WEDNESDAY. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY
HAS EXISTED AND STILL DOES WITH THE LOW MAGNITUDE AND TIMING.
WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER EC SOLUTION AS CONTINUED BY
TODAYS 12Z GUIDANCE GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM BEING CLOSED
AT FIRST. WHILE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP INCLUDING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SUCH A PATTERN...THE UPPER AND LOW-LEVEL JET
PLACEMENTS AND STRONGEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WOULD
FAVOR RAIN AND PROBABLY SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT...THIS WOULD BE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON...FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING AS WELL AS STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
THAT SYSTEM IS THE FIRST OF A FEW EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET TAKES A SUBSTANTIAL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL U.S AS WE ROLL
INTO APRIL. THIS HAS BEEN GENERALLY FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
OVER THE PAST WEEK...WITH NOT SURPRISINGLY DIFFERENCES ON JUST
HOW COLD IT WOULD GET. LOOKING AT IT FROM AN ENSEMBLE PERSPECTIVE
THOUGH...FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ANOMALIES FOR BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE NAEFS...IN FACT INTO THE LOWEST
PERCENTILE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ON NEXT
SUNDAY. THIS IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST BUT IF IT WERE TO
PAN OUT...COULD HAVE HIGHS NEXT SUNDAY OR SO STRUGGLING TO REACH
30 DEGREES /WHICH WOULD BE AT RECORD LOW MAX TERRITORY/.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT
FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT GYY. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY
DETEORIORATING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AND RAIN DEVELPING FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE MIDDAY
IN RFD AREA AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON CHICAGO TERMINALS. RAIN SHOULD
END FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LOCKING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS...OPTED TO HANG ONTO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CDT
AFTER FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW DEEPENING TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE FIRST PART OF APRIL. WHILE
THERE IS LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN MAGNITUDE OF A MIDWEEK
LOW...ONE OF SUB 1000 MB IS LIKELY TO TAKE A NORTHEAST PATH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THAT TIME. OF PROBABLY MORE NOTE IS
A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A BUCKLE IN THE JET STREAM WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A DEEP LOW...OR TWO...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL. IN TERMS OF ANOMALIES...THIS IS
FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A WEEK OUT FOR AT LEAST A GALE EVENT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
A cold front currently moving east across Iowa will progress
across Illinois tomorrow. A narrow corridor of isentropic lift
across NW Illinois will continue to keep mid-clouds across our NW
counties the rest of the night. Based on the amount of dry air
below 700 mb in the 00z ILX sounding, it appears little to no
measurable rain will occur in our counties before sunrise. The
latest updates from the HRRR and RAP delay rainfall even longer
than that. The HRRR shows rain first affecting our areas NW of
the IL river around 15z, while the RAP delays any rain in our
counties until after 18z. That seems a little extreme based on the
forecast soundings and projected lift that will increase Easter
Sunday morning. Have reduced PoPs the rest of the night, and
slowed down the development and advance of rain across IL
tomorrow. The evening update from SPC keeps our eastern counties
in a Marginal outlook for severe storms tomorrow, as the cold
front picks up speed tomorrow afternoon. Will keep isolated
thunder in the afternoon forecast southeast of Taylorville to
Paris.
Main changes this evening were to PoP and weather grids, with
minor updates to temp, dewpoint, and sky. Overnight lows look on
track for low to mid 40s. The updated info is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
Another quiet and mild night in store for Central Illinois.
Southeasterly winds ahead of the approaching precipitation for
tomorrow morning as well. Clouds will slowly increase after
midnight. Frontal boundary moving closer as well as increasing
cloud cover...cannot rule out some sct showers NW of the Illinois
River Valley, but chances are very low. Overnight lows should be in
the low to mid 40s before the onset of tomorrows rain.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
The weather system coming into the area tomorrow remains the focus
of this forecast. Models have come into better agreement as GFS is
now slower, like the NAM and ECMWF. With better agreement,
confidence has been raised, so pops have been increased for tomorrow
with high pops in the west during the late morning, followed by high
pops elsewhere during the early afternoon. Most models keep this
system as an open wave so pcpn should move east and out of the area
quicker than what the NAM is showing. So, by Sunday evening, there
will be only a chance of pcpn in the eastern parts of the CWA. By
midnight, the whole area should be dry. With the track of this wave
being across southern Illinois, believe should be sufficient
dynamics and instability for some isolated thunderstorms to be
possible tomorrow afternoon, then push east Sunday evening. So will
be keeping the isold t-storms over part of the CWA in the forecast
for the afternoon. Once this system moves through, dry weather is
expected for the beginning of next week.
Another weather system is still forecast by the models to move
through the area during the middle of the week. With models showing
a tad bit more consistency, have agreed with the likely pops for Wed
night. This system should also have sufficient dynamics for some
thunderstorms to be possible, so will have isolated thunderstorms
for Wed and Wed night. Models indicating pcpn slowly exiting the
area with this system, so chance pops will remain through Thur
night. Then dry weather remainder of the week.
Temps should get quite warm tomorrow, but then cool some for Monday,
after the system moves through. Warmer temps expected again next
week ahead of the mid week system with some cooling after that one
as well for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2016
All the short term models have slowed down the onset of precip,
but still show a band of rain moving across IL tomorrow. Mid
level isentropic lift will increase in the morning, helping precip
develop ahead of the cold front. A dry sub-cloud layer will slow
down precip development as well, but saturation should eventually
occur from west to east starting later Sunday morning. Based on
the latest models, steadier rains look to start around 17z at
PIA, with prevailing rain advancing east to near CMI by 23z/6pm.
Rain chances diminish from west to east late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday evening.
MVFR cloud cover should develop by 16z at PIA and advance to CMI
by 20z, with MVFR prevailing for the remainder of the forecast
period.
Winds will start out southeast the rest of tonight, then become
south by 15-17z. A cold FROPA will create a wind shift to the
west then northwest Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds will increase
to 10-16kt during the afternoon and evening from the W-NW.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT RACING
EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE
DRIVER OF STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...WELL AHEAD THE BOUNDARY...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE THICK CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
CLOUDS LIMITED THE TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S NOTED WHILE IN THE WEST AND NORTH READINGS REACHED
INTO THE 70S THANKS TO THINNER CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...CONTINUING THEIR CLIMB AS THE AIR
MASS MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND ALSO ADDING TO
THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHILE A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON ITS WAY
NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
THE OTHER MODELS WITH MUCH BETTER CLUSTERING NOTED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
EVEN SO...THIS WILL PROVIDE A DYNAMIC PUNCH TO ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND FOR WX DETAILS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE A LATE SPRING EVENING AS AN APPROACHING
FRONT LIKELY BRINGS STORMS TO THE AREA...CROSSING FROM WEST TO
EAST TOWARD...AND JUST AFTER...MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IS MAXIMIZING
ITS CAPE AND DESTABILIZING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO ACTIVATE THIS POTENTIAL AND THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET AND INTO FALLING INSTABILITY. WHEN THE FRONT
DOES ARRIVE...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS
THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH IN THE GRIDS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND A QUICK DIMINISHMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE ALONG
WITH AN END TO THE STORM THREAT POST FROPA. CAA FOLLOWS THROUGH
DAWN AND THEN LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT AND FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN A CAA PATTERN.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE WET MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT AND
SIMILARLY LOW THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MORNINGS WILL START OFF
COOL WITH FROST BEING A POTENTIAL CONCERN...BUT WE MAKE UP FOR IT
WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A
AMPLIFIED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND EJECT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES OVERALL MODELS SEEM TO BE MATCHING UP WELL FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GET CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SPOKES RIDING AROUND A DEEPER LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AND THIS WILL FURTHER ENFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. RIGHT NOW THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO KEEP THE END OF THE
WEEK COOL WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND
BY SUNDAY SOME MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING
FLOW PREVENTS LOWER CIGS FROM DEVELOPING EFFECTIVELY. AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
THIS...HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...
CIGS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOWER CIGS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
WELL...HAVE LEFT SOME VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THIS. WINDS WILL SWING
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
COMING AROUND TO THE WEST FOLLOWING FROPA...AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
NEAR THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR
25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1107 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR AREAS THAT WERE IN LINE
FOR POSSIBLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. SINCE
THAT TIME...RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AND THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO GREATLY DOWNPLAYING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN...REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...SO AM HESITANT TO
DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. REGARDING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE THAT IS KEEPING THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WATER...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DO NOT
HAVE AS MUCH COMPETITION AND COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR BRIEF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO NOT ORGANIZE INTO ANY POTENTIALLY TRAINING BANDS WITH
HIGH REFLECTIVITY...IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE
CANCELLED EARLY. OVERALL TRENDS OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY AROUND SUNSET STILL LOOK
GOOD...BUT LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED. 22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR TO IFR REMAIN PROBLEMATIC
FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF FORECASTS TODAY...SO AMENDMENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF RESTRICTED VSBYS IN SHRA/FEW TSRA AND SCATTERED LOWER CIGS.
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA DECREASES. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN
SOME AREAS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 06Z TO 14Z MONDAY
MORNING...DEPENDING QUITE A BIT ON WHETHER CIGS ABOVE 010 CLEAR
OUT AND/OR OTHER CIGS BELOW 010 BUILD DOWN TOWARDS THE GROUND.
22/TD
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
SYNOPSIS...L/W TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHES SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. SW FLOW IS ALOFT FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE SERN CONUS AND
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. OLD BNDRY DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS THE
COAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND THE SRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ACROSS
SELA AND JUST INTO THE GULF. /CAB/
SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 5Z AS LIFT BEGAN TO
INCREASE.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTION TODAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
IN THINKING AS WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-55 CORRIDOR BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
AS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IT IS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THAT
WILL SEE MORE INGREDIENTS LINE UP. FIRST WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LL
JET WHICH COULD APPROACH 35-40 KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA B/T 12 AND 18Z THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION A MID LVL JET OF
40-55 KTS WILL WORK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
COMBINE THAT WITH RICH H85 THETA E AIR PUMPING INTO THE SAME REGION
AND PWS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES SHOULD YIELD SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE PARALLEL TO THE STALLED
BNDRY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE AND COASTAL MS.
AS FOR STRONG/SEVERE...CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STORM OR TWO ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT AS ALWAYS IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO
GET A QUICK SPIN UP DOWN HERE. OVERALL NOT MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT A GOOD BIT OF ELEVLATED INSTABILITY.
CONCERN IS IF THE BNDRY CAN DRIFT FURTHER NORTH...THEN SOUTH OF THAT
BNDRY STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED TO THE SFC. AGAIN IF THAT HAPPENS
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
AS FOR WHEN CONVECTION WILL END...STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY BEGIN
TO SHUT OFF THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND COULD DO SO QUICKLY. AS
MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COULD BEGIN AROUND
19/20Z IN THE FAR NW WITH DOWNGLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AROUND 00-
01Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SAME TIME AND ONCE THIS
HAPPENS ALL PRECIP SHOULD SHUT DOWN. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN FREE BY 3Z TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.
MON AND INTO TUE SHOULD BE QUIET WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS HOWEVER MDLS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME SHRA BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE TUE AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. /CAB/
LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PERIOD
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BUT THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG AND DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW TWRDS NV AND UT. THIS AMPLIFIES
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS PUTTING THE REGION BACK UNDER SW FLOW
AND THUS TAPPING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE PAC MOISTURE. THIS
WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA BACK INTO THE AREA WED AND THU. PROBLEMS
BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN ISSUE IS
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH. IF IT BREAKS AND CLOSES
OFF FROM THE MAIN L/W WE WILL DRY OUT FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE
MOVE UNDER WEAK WNW FLOW AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IF THE
BASE DOESNT BREAK OFF AND THE L/W TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE THROUGH WHILE THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRI AND
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THAT ALL SAID OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW FOR THE BACK END OF THE FCST SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SHOWING LOW END POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS LATE SAT. THE SAME FOR TEMPS AS WE WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE COLDER GFS AND WARMER ECMWF. /CAB/
AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO LIFR AT SOME
TERMINAL AND SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL SITES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL DROP VISIBILITIES AS WELL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. /MEFFER/
MARINE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
CELLS TO PRODUCE WIND GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE MORNING/INTO THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MONDAY
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
VERY TIGHT...SO MAY ONLY BRIEFLY REACH SCS CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY RELAX BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER IN TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RISE POSSIBLY TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /MEFFER/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 53 71 50 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 78 56 74 53 / 100 10 0 0
ASD 76 59 74 55 / 100 10 0 0
MSY 76 61 72 58 / 100 10 0 0
GPT 74 61 74 56 / 100 20 0 0
PQL 74 60 75 54 / 100 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ040-
057>065-072.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ080>082.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 27/12Z. ALSO...A
CHANCE OF BR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS AT KLFK AND MAYBE AS
FAR NORTH AS KTYR/KGGG LEAVING BEHIND POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BR AT KTYR/KGGG...SO DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NE LOUISIANA AT KMLU
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 27/15Z. RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 27/21Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. /20/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...
DENSE CIRRUS HAS SPREAD NNE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SRN CO INTO NM.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE
TX/EXTREME SRN LA...AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NNW INTO DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FG
DEVELOPMENT LATE EVEN BENEATH THE CIRRUS SHEILD OVER SE TX...WHICH
MAY AFFECT THE FAR SW SECTIONS OF DEEP E TX. THE 00Z NAM REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS 18Z PREDECESSOR WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE
ADVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY/CNTRL
LA LATE...AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ALSO SUGGEST ISOLATED
CONVECTION AFFECTING THESE AREAS AS WELL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THUS HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER W LATE TONIGHT
TO SABINE COUNTY TX AND ENCOMPASSING THE SRN/EXTREME ERN PARISHES OF
NCNTRL LA. THE DENSE CIRRUS IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A LID ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN ZONES LIKELY NOT BUDGING MUCH BELOW 60
DEGREES. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH SCT CONVECTION INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
SRN/ERN ZONES. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION SHORT AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE H850 FLOW QUICKLY VEERING W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ANY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MINIMIZED...WITH THE
ALREADY SHALLOW MOISTURE COLUMN DRYING OUT THAT MUCH FASTER DURING
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY ENTRAINS E BY AFTERNOON. HENCE...THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND VERY FEW
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS
WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 57 76 45 71 / 10 20 0 0
MLU 56 78 47 68 / 10 40 10 0
DEQ 49 64 37 69 / 10 30 0 0
TXK 55 69 42 68 / 10 20 0 0
ELD 53 74 43 68 / 10 30 0 0
TYR 57 67 43 71 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 56 70 43 70 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 59 76 47 73 / 10 30 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHG THRU THE REST OF THE NGT IS FCST HRLY
TEMPS BASED ON LATEST 11PM-MDNGT SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...MVFR SC CLGS
CURRENTLY AS FAR NE AS KRKD IS YET TO GET INTO SIG PTNS OF COASTAL
HANCOCK COUNTY BASED ON LATEST METER OBS FROM KBHB.
ORGNL DISC: CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND FOG OR DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL.
SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THEN MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION LATER TONIGHT W/SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING. BLYR WINDS GO
SE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT IS MORE SSW WHICH IS A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS
TO TAKE PLACE. BUFKIT DATA ALSO SHOWING FOG OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
W/THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS. AFTER FURTHER
COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET W/DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS READINGS WILL BE DOWN TO MID
TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CAP A FURTHER DROP IN THE TEMPS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE DURING THE MORNING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST THE COAST AS SSE WINDS PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO CUT DOWN ON TEMPS RISING DUE
TO THE FLOW OFF THE COLDER GULF OF MAINE WATERS. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE A TAD WARMER ESPECIALLY IF SOME SUN
APPEARS. ALL THIS DESPITE SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO HANG ON TO CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE TO SET UP
LATE IN THE DAY AS EVIDENT FROM THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT
PROFILES. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION AIDING IN THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SITUATED. CARRIED PATCHY WORDING FOR
NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
FIRST CONCERN BEFORE THE STORM REALLY MOVES IN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MANY
AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE MOISTURE NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP A LEVEL COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION.
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A POTENT SYSTEM BEGINNING MONDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE STORM. MAIN ISSUE IS HOW
FAST THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER SHIFTS FROM BEING THE ONE WEST OF
QUEBEC CITY TO THE ONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FASTER THE
TRANSFER OF ENERGY OCCURS, THE QUICKER OUR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
GFS HAS BEEN SLOWER ON THE TRANSFER, ALTHOUGH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SEEM TO BE FASTER ON THE TRANSFER. ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND
NAM ARE A BIT FASTER ON THE TRANSFER, AND I TEND TO FAVOR A
FASTER TRANSFER OF ENERGY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING.
BEST GUESS FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE MAY MIX AT TIMES. THEN
A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDY AND COLDER TUESDAY. FIRST GUESS AT SNOW AMOUNTS IS FOR 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE NORTH, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO. THESE AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER...
THEREFORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. SATURDAY
IS FORECAST TO BE CLOUDY...COOLER WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR GIVING WAY TO LOW MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR CIGS
AND VSBYS, ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS AS FOG DVLPS. THE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD HANG ON THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING THEN
BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR CONTINUING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
ENTIRE AREA, GENERALLY FALLING AS RAIN MONDAY THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WINDY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA CANCELLED W/WINDS AND SEAS DOWN TO 15 KTS AND 4 FT
RESPECTIVELY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD RIGHT INTO EASTER
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MIN LEVEL SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS LATE
MONDAY. STRONGER OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FOISY
MARINE...FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST, WHICH NUDGES BACK INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BAND BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NOTING SOME AREAS OF LGT TO MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NC, AND AS THE 300K THETA SURFACE BUCKLES
NNE INTO THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE AREA AS BETTER SLUG OF LIFT PUSHES NORTH. HAVE PUSHED
BACK ONSET OF POPS SLIGHTLY PER RADAR TRENDS. HRRR NOW SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING, DEPICTING AREAS OF RAIN MOVING INTO
SERN PORTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TOWARD THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND, HI-RES MODELS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER THIN LOW LEVEL LAYER BECOMING SATURATED IN
PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE OVER INLAND
SECTIONS. MAINLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S FAR N...TO
MID/UPPER 40S FOR CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY
ALTHOUGH FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED SUN MORNING, WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE EXPECTED IN PERSISTENT ENE FLOW, THOUGH ANY LIGHT RAIN
MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH MIDDAY. AS THE
FRONT LIFTS N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN THOUGH
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.
FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME LOWER 60S ACRS INTERIOR NE NC AND S-CENTRAL VA.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
PORTIONS GIVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONTINUED TO SPEED-UP THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT PER 12Z/26 GFS/ECMWF WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING (MAINLY E)...WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY BY AFTN. THE BEST CAA SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY INITIAL CAA MONDAY AFTN OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE ERN SHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...AND RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS DRY AS UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA TUES NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WEDS (COMPARED TO TUES)...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MILD WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S THANKS TO SLY FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY THU. ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS. THE TREND
AS OF LATE IS TO LEAN TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...BUT THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY HANDLES BLOCKY FLOW BETTER. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH
PERSISTENT AND MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS. FOLLOWING
THIS SOLUTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO SE CANADA. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EXPECTED THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON LIMITED DYNAMICS AND A LACK OF A GOOD TAP OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. HIGHS THURS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH A BREEZY SLY WIND. MILD
AGAIN THURS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FRI (BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST) AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS FRI BACK IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC REGION WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
NE/E FLOW. VFR CURRENTLY AT KRIC/KSBY...WITH MVFR AT KORF/KPHF...AND
IFR CEILINGS AT KECG. EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR THROUGH
09Z...AS CEILINGS CONT TO LOWER. SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED
MAINLY KPHF/KORF/KECG OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AREA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY IFR CONDS PREVAILING THRU MUCH OF
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN PERSISTS...AND
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY MON...WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD ALLOW AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 18Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
SW/W WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES
OFF THE NE COAST. SPEEDS AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS TO A SOLID 4 FT. THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FLOW BRIEFLY
BECOMES SLY SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION MON AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES NWLY MON
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TUES MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUES AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS WITH SLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
WATER. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURS AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS
UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/WRS
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM QUEBEC INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG IN THE
PLAINS AND A DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. SHRTWV/DEEP LO PRES
ARE MOVING THRU SE CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW E OF THE CWA...SOME SC LINGERS OVER THE ERN
CWA IN THE THERMAL TROF /H85 TEMPS ARND -4C/ AND SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC
NLY FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LO. BUT MORE ACYC FLOW
EXTENDING S FM HI CENTER OVER FAR NW ONTARIO/ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS ERODED THE LO CLDS OVER THE W. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV/AREA OF MID CLDS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP...BUT LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STRONGER SHRTWV
IS CAUSING THESE MID CLDS TO DIMINISH AS THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...THE HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO BUILD SLOWLY S UNDER
CONFLUENT NW FLOW E OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO BUILD
IN MN OVERNGT. EXPECT MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV TO
CONTINUE TO DSPT IN THE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THIS RDG. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE LO CLDS MAY
PERSIST OR REFORM OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE NLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHING HI PRES...DRYING/CLRG TRENDS UPSTREAM HINT THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING LESS IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. WITH
PWAT FCST TO FALL TO NEAR 0.20 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AT SOME OF THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA.
TUE...INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING TO THE
E IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 2C IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RDG AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE WRN
GREAT LKS...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S/CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL
DOWNSLOPE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AS
ENERGY UNDERCUTS WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE RIDGE WILL
REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP ERN TROFFING INTO SE
CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 3-
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUN. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE
BEEN FOR FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN THE CORE
OF AN UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR PASSING BY TO THE
NE OF HERE. STILL...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND. QUICK MODERATION BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS
WILL THEN OCCUR NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...TEMPS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2
SHORTWAVES/LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE S
OF LINGERING COLD AIR ACROSS CANADA. AS FOR PCPN...MAIN PCPN EVENT
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN
PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU. MORE ON THIS
LATER. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN. NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AROUND
TUE.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT/WED...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SW CONUS AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 290-295K SURFACES...EXPECT RAIN
TO DEVELOP W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. UNDER SLOW HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPWARD MOTION...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE COLUMN MAY COOL JUST
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER WED AFTN AT THE
EARLIEST...ANY MIX OF RAIN WITH SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER FROPA.
AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO
THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES
TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU MANITOBA.
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP
WINTER STORM WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS MESS OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S
NOT TO SAY THAT SOME MDT TO PERHAPS HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T
OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER LAKES. AS OPPOSED TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...
ROUGHLY THE LAST DAY OF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CONVERGENCE
TOWARD A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI INTO FAR
ERN UPPER MI/STRAITS AREA. DEGREE OF PHASING OF SHORTWAVES WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN. IF THE
SHORTWAVES BECOME BETTER PHASED...A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WITH A HEAVIER/MORE PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION PCPN BAND
DEVELOPING FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR...RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK
OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. WEAKER
PHASING WILL LEAD TO A LESSER RISK OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL
PROFILES...WILL UTILIZE A BLENDED APPROACH OF RECENT MODEL RUNS TO
CONSTRUCT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PTYPE. AT THIS POINT...THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MI HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY REQUIRE A HEADLINE WED NIGHT/THU.
MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING AT LEAST SCT -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO -17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A
SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO VIGOROUS SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ALOFT. -SHSN WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH OVERALL
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE AND THUS A
QUICKER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR...MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AS LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
ON MON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY STREAK INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT
MODELS SHOW LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...TYPICAL FOR A SMALLER
SCALE FEATURE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS INTO
TUE. BUT AS THIS HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF DEVELOPING LO PRES IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT ESE VEERING SSW WINDS INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS
INTO WED. AS THE LO TRACKS JUST TO THE S ON WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WEAK TRAILING HI PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG N WINDS THAT MAY REACH GALE FORCE COULD DEVELOP
ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LO PRES THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONE WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS AIDED RAIN AND SOME SNOW THAT HAS SPREAD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN UPPER MI TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER
MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER
MO. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE HAS QUICKLY STREAKED NE ACROSS
SE WI...NRN LAKE MI AND INTO ERN UPPER MI...FORCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF UPPER JET EXTENDING ENE FROM THE UPPER LAKES AND CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN FGEN IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FOCUS WILL BE ON ENDING LINGERING PCPN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED NE INTO ERN UPPER MI MAY
BRUSH THE SE FCST AREA THRU THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM MO
ACROSS SE LWR MI. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ARRIVAL OF DEEP
LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING AN
END TO PATCHY -RA/-SN. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME
-DZ/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER RATHER PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC NORTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH CLEARING IS NOT FAR
AWAY OVER NW LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING SUGGEST AT LEAST THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA WILL BE
TAPPING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS NNE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ. IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON ACROSS EVEN THE W...PARTICULARY IN THE FACE OF
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR OVER THE
W...RADIATIONAL FOG COULD DEVELOP. WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT TO MOSTLY THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S. IF
CLOUDS BREAK OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS WILL FALL TOWARD 20F.
EXPECT ANY -DZ/-FZDZ TO START THE DAY MON TO END BY AFTN AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS A BIT. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS...BUT WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED IF SKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/E
UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF PRETTY TRANQUIL
FOLLOWED BY A MIDWEEK STORM THAT WILL FEATURE RAIN FOLLOWED BY EVEN
A LITTLE SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRUSHED BY A BRIEF BUT COLD SHOT OF AIR LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A SEASONABLY COLD
FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
CHANGES BEGIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS IT DOES...SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH BRAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE U.P. FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO HINGE ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. TRENDS SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AT LEAST INITIALLY
WILL NOT INTERACT AS MUCH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LEADING
TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE LAKES REGION. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH MODELS COMING INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI EXPECT ENOUGH COLD
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN TO TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SLOPPY FEW INCHES
OF WET SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDY...COOL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES. UPPER TROUGH AND SURGE OF COLD AIR...85H TEMPS OF -20 TO
-25C...WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATER NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS HOWEVER SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING
THE HARSHNESS OF THE COLD SURGE AND OFFERING MORE OF A BRIEF
GLANCING BLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION RETURNING BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW THRU THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR WILL OCCUR
AT KIWD THIS EVENING AND AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT. AT KCMX...A LESS
DIRECT UPSLOPE WIND AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MAKES INROADS...ALL TERMINALS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT
KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING...15-25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON. CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING HIGH PRES
RIDGE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...WILL THEN BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE
LAKE MON NIGHT THRU AT LEAST TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES.
SE TO S WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TUE THRU WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF FLOW...
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...PROBABLY TO
20-30KT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WED NIGHT AND A LOW PRES WAVE
TRACKS LONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND N IN THE 20-
30KT RANGE. WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST A PART OF
THU/THU EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES WAVE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON FRI BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF GALES DURING THE
DAY SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
138 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IT WILL BE A MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
CENTRAL LOWER...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS MAY EVEN HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
MORE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD COOL
DOWN AGAIN WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY HERE IN SW LOWER MI. IT IS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET ADD GREATER DETAIL TO THE SHORT TERM
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART I DELAYED
THE START OF THE RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL ONLY START MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS FROM
GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA AND SOUTH SHOULD STAY DRY MOST OF TODAY.
BASED ON THE 04 AM HRRR AND 04 AM RAP MODELS... THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT GET INTO OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS TILL AFTER 4 PM. MODEL
SOUNDING SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE AREA NEAR JXN AND
MOSTLY AFTER 4 PM. THAT IS REALLY NOT A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE IDEA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE I-69
AREA AGREES WITH THE SPC SREF AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS MORE THAN POSSIBLE IN THE I-69 AREA FROM THESE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS STRONGER WITH SOLID
JET DYNAMICS. ALSO SEEING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDER. THEN THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT COOL AND DRY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 115 KT
UPPER JET WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION MOVING OVER LOWER MI BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
JET IMPLUSES KEEP THIS QUAD OF THE UPPER JET OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION AND A STEADIER RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW LEVEL JET...SO ADDED SOME
THUNDER. THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...BUT AREAS SE OF GRR COULD
SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TOWARD THE FAR SE CWA...TOWARD JXN...PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...SO ADDED LOW
POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR A FEW LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH DECENT CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY THEN AND HIGHS AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THERE WILL BE TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE FIRST IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THEN THERE IS A ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT FOR SUNDAY (ALL DAY) AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LIKELY WILL ACCUMULATE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
A POWERFUL STORM (958 MB) CURRENTLY NEAR 48N AND 171E... WITH A 200
KNOT JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH IT... THAT BUILDS A LARGE UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF SHORE OF NORTH AMERICA FROM CALIFORNIA TO ALASKA BY
TUESDAY. THAT IN TURN FORCES A MERGER OF A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BRING A STRONG
SPRING STORM THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF MICHIGAN THAT
PUTS US IN THE WARM AIR AND WITH A GULF CONNECTION... THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT TYPICAL THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND IS MORE LIKELY CORRECT.
BEHIND THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE ARCTIC DIVES INTO THAT DEEP
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH AND BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WE WILL NOT GET ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT BTL/JXN DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY THERE. CIGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
RATHER STRONG NNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LAKE WILL CALM DOWN LATE
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MANY RIVER FORECAST POINTS... ESPECIALLY ON THE GRAND RIVER... ARE
RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE BANK FULL. UP TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN TWO CHUNKS. SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... THE RAIN (UNDER A HALF INCH) WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT
TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY WEEKS END.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IT WILL BE A MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
CENTRAL LOWER...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS MAY EVEN HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
MORE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD COOL
DOWN AGAIN WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY HERE IN SW LOWER MI. IT IS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET ADD GREATER DETAIL TO THE SHORT TERM
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART I DELAYED
THE START OF THE RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL ONLY START MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS FROM
GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA AND SOUTH SHOULD STAY DRY MOST OF TODAY.
BASED ON THE 04 AM HRRR AND 04 AM RAP MODELS... THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT GET INTO OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS TILL AFTER 4 PM. MODEL
SOUNDING SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE AREA NEAR JXN AND
MOSTLY AFTER 4 PM. THAT IS REALLY NOT A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE IDEA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE I-69
AREA AGREES WITH THE SPC SREF AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS MORE THAN POSSIBLE IN THE I-69 AREA FROM THESE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS STRONGER WITH SOLID
JET DYNAMICS. ALSO SEEING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDER. THEN THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT COOL AND DRY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 115 KT
UPPER JET WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION MOVING OVER LOWER MI BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
JET IMPLUSES KEEP THIS QUAD OF THE UPPER JET OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION AND A STEADIER RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW LEVEL JET...SO ADDED SOME
THUNDER. THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...BUT AREAS SE OF GRR COULD
SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TOWARD THE FAR SE CWA...TOWARD JXN...PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...SO ADDED LOW
POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR A FEW LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH DECENT CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY THEN AND HIGHS AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THERE WILL BE TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE FIRST IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THEN THERE IS A ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT FOR SUNDAY (ALL DAY) AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LIKELY WILL ACCUMULATE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
A POWERFUL STORM (958 MB) CURRENTLY NEAR 48N AND 171E... WITH A 200
KNOT JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH IT... THAT BUILDS A LARGE UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF SHORE OF NORTH AMERICA FROM CALIFORNIA TO ALASKA BY
TUESDAY. THAT IN TURN FORCES A MERGER OF A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BRING A STRONG
SPRING STORM THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF MICHIGAN THAT
PUTS US IN THE WARM AIR AND WITH A GULF CONNECTION... THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT TYPICAL THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND IS MORE LIKELY CORRECT.
BEHIND THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE ARCTIC DIVES INTO THAT DEEP
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH AND BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WE WILL NOT GET ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WHEN THE RAIN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE AFTER 03Z. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN WE COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME TURN
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY TOWARD MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON RAP AND HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
CHARTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
RATHER STRONG NNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LAKE WILL CALM DOWN LATE
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MANY RIVER FORECAST POINTS... ESPECIALLY ON THE GRAND RIVER... ARE
RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE BANK FULL. UP TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN TWO CHUNKS. SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... THE RAIN (UNDER A HALF INCH) WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT
TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY WEEKS END.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IT WILL BE A MILD EASTER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
CENTRAL LOWER...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS MAY EVEN HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT IT WILL BE DRY.
MORE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD COOL
DOWN AGAIN WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
I DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET ADD GREATER DETAIL TO THE SHORT TERM
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART I DELAYED
THE START OF THE RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THAT WILL ONLY START MOVING INTO
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS FROM
GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA AND SOUTH SHOULD STAY DRY MOST OF TODAY.
BASED ON THE 04 AM HRRR AND 04 AM RAP MODELS... THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT GET INTO OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS TILL AFTER 4 PM. MODEL
SOUNDING SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE AREA NEAR JXN AND
MOSTLY AFTER 4 PM. THAT IS REALLY NOT A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE IDEA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE I-69
AREA AGREES WITH THE SPC SREF AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SEEMS MORE THAN POSSIBLE IN THE I-69 AREA FROM THESE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THE SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS STRONGER WITH SOLID
JET DYNAMICS. ALSO SEEING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDER. THEN THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT COOL AND DRY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 115 KT
UPPER JET WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION MOVING OVER LOWER MI BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
JET IMPLUSES KEEP THIS QUAD OF THE UPPER JET OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION AND A STEADIER RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW LEVEL JET...SO ADDED SOME
THUNDER. THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...BUT AREAS SE OF GRR COULD
SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TOWARD THE FAR SE CWA...TOWARD JXN...PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE CWA MONDAY MORNING...SO ADDED LOW
POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR A FEW LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. I DID LOWER MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WITH DECENT CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY THEN AND HIGHS AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
THERE WILL BE TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE FIRST IS THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THEN THERE IS A ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH IT FOR SUNDAY (ALL DAY) AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LIKELY WILL ACCUMULATE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
A POWERFUL STORM (958 MB) CURRENTLY NEAR 48N AND 171E... WITH A 200
KNOT JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH IT... THAT BUILDS A LARGE UPSTREAM
RIDGE JUST OFF SHORE OF NORTH AMERICA FROM CALIFORNIA TO ALASKA BY
TUESDAY. THAT IN TURN FORCES A MERGER OF A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BRING A STRONG
SPRING STORM THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF MICHIGAN THAT
PUTS US IN THE WARM AIR AND WITH A GULF CONNECTION... THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS IT TYPICAL THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND IS MORE LIKELY CORRECT.
BEHIND THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE ARCTIC DIVES INTO THAT DEEP
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH AND BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WE WILL NOT GET ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WHEN THE RAIN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE AFTER 03Z. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN WE COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME TURN
TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY TOWARD MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LAN AND JXN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON RAP AND HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
CHARTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
RATHER STRONG NNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE LAKE WILL CALM DOWN LATE
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MANY RIVER FORECAST POINTS... ESPECIALLY ON THE GRAND RIVER... ARE
RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE BANK FULL. UP TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK IN TWO CHUNKS. SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... THE RAIN (UNDER A HALF INCH) WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN LOWLAND AREAS ADJACENT
TO RIVER BANKS. MORE IMPACTFUL MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY WEEKS END.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
850 PM MDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING. THE NEW WRF CAME IN PRETTY WARM
AT 850 MB ON TUE WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEGREES C.
850 MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL TO AROUND ZERO TUE NIGHT. THIS
MODEL IS WARMER THAN ALL OF THE OLDER RUNS OF THE OTHER MODELS SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THEY COME IN TO SEE IF CHANGES TO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NEEDED. NOTED THE HRRR HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON QPF
PLACEMENT THAN THE WRF THIS EVENING. THE WRF WAS SHOWING QPF OVER
MT WHERE JUST MID CLOUDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE THE HRRR KEPT THE
QPF OVER WY WHERE RADAR WAS SHOWING STRONG ECHOES. THE STORM WAS
COMING TOGETHER WELL ON SATELLITE WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT
EXTENDED FROM WY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS WERE SHOWING
STRONG DIFLUENCE OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL.
CLOUD COVER...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALL IN GOOD SHAPE. NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO HIGHLIGHTS. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR OTHER MODELS
TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
A WET SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AND HEAVY SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. BEING A SPRING STORM
WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC AND VERY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AS WELL AS
TIME OF DAY. SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH
EVEN AT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. FOR LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ALL DAY BUT MUCH OF IT MAY MELT AS IT
FALLS...ACCUMULATING DURING HEAVIER BURSTS AND MELTING DURING LESS
INTENSE PERIODS. AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET ROADS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN JUST WET THROUGH THIS STORM...FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET
ROADS WILL BE MAINLY WET OR SLUSH COVERED DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
COVERED AT NIGHT...WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO ICE UP.
OTHER IMPACTS WILL BE THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WEIGHING ON
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. SOME TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTY.
YOUNG LIVESTOCK WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD WET AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NEVADA INTO WESTERN WYOMING
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW SPREADING STRONG DIVERGENCE AND JET FORCING
OVER THE AREA ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES OVER WYOMING...INTENSIFYING
UPSLOPE INTO AREA FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VERY
STRONG LIFT AND EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ROUNDUP TO EKALAKA LINE. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH SEEM REASONABLE IN THIS AREA WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS IN FAVORED FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...TRACKING IT INTO NEBRASKA
INSTEAD OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS TRACK WOULD CUT OFF PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH PRETTY QUICKLY FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND...BUT
STILL LEAVING SOME ROOM FOR A WETTER TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
SNOW...850 TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR ZERO CELSIUS THROUGH THIS EVENT
WHICH IS A BIT WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. 700-500MB TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR
HEAVY SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. SNOW RATIOS OF
10 TO 16 RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FEET FOR NORTH FACING HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED LODGE AND NYE...WITH 6 TO 12
INCHES IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS INCLUDING SHERIDAN...LIVINGSTON AND
BIG TIMBER. AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET EXPECT TO SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW ON GRASS SURFACES SOUTH OF A ROUNDUP TO EKALAKA
LINE WITH MOST OF THIS ACCUMULATING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CAN`T STRESS ENOUGH TO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WARM
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
HIGHLITES...CANCELLED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE
LATEST MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. FROM
HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND HAVE GON WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY IS A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-90 WHERE 6 INCHES TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON
ELEVATION. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POWDER AND CARTER
COUNTIES FOR NOW...BUT PUSHED THE START BACK TO LATE TOMORROW.
THINKING BASED ON LATEST MODELS IS THAT THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY
NEED JUST AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA BUT SHOULD THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVE JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH SNOW TOTALS COULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY
HEAVIER. EITHER WAY SNOW WON`T REALLY GET GOING IN THIS AREA UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS
BEFORE PULLING TRIGGER ON AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND WEAKENING FORCING SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO
EXIT THE CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
A BREAK IN WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH POTENTIALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. EAST
AND NORTH FACING SLOPES SHOULD GET ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF SNOW. AT
THIS TIME THINK THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH FASTER
MOVING...CLEARING OUT QUICKLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY.
RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE FOR FRI INTO SAT. THEN SOME
WEAKER ENERGY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AND ENERGY NOT SO STRONG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN PLACE TO END THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY...AND 60S SATURDAY. GILSTAD/RMS/HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING MVFR TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
AND DEVELOP SNOW TOWARD MORNING AND THIS SNOW WILL DROP CONDITIONS
TO IFR AND LOWER FROM BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST WILL DETERIORATE LATER IN THE
MORNING. THE HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SHERIDAN. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW
WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED. TWH &&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/039 029/044 035/049 029/058 038/064 038/063 039/060
6+/O +4/S 44/W 11/N 11/B 12/W 21/B
LVM 028/035 025/040 030/049 029/057 035/061 036/060 035/057
7+/S +5/S 55/W 21/N 11/N 12/W 21/B
HDN 033/040 028/045 033/049 023/059 033/065 033/065 035/062
5+/O +4/S 54/W 11/B 11/U 12/W 21/B
MLS 037/045 029/047 033/047 023/056 035/062 034/062 037/060
38/O 91/N 44/W 11/B 11/U 12/W 21/B
4BQ 034/046 030/045 031/045 023/053 033/063 032/063 036/062
39/O +6/S 64/W 11/B 11/U 12/W 21/B
BHK 035/050 028/046 029/044 021/050 031/058 028/056 033/059
26/O 81/N 54/W 11/B 11/U 12/W 21/B
SHR 030/036 026/038 027/045 021/052 032/060 031/060 033/059
8+/S +8/O 65/W 11/N 11/U 12/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON
MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 28-29-35-42-57-58-63.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 34-39>41-64-65.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 36-37.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 38-56-66>68.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
636 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
H5 HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. A TROUGH WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SWD TO THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF IDAHO WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. HT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOST
PRONOUNCED AT RENO AND MEDFORD OREGON WHERE 100-120 METER FALLS WERE
NOTED. FURTHER EAST...70-90 METER FALLS WERE NOTED AT ELKO NEVADA
AND SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO...WYOMING...ALONG WITH THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED
TO A DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
INVADING HIGH CLOUDINESS CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA... FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE SURFACE LOW.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED WITH THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT RELAXING AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
AFTER DARK. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND MOST
MODELS SHOWING H85 WINDS NEAR 20-25KTS. AROUND 06Z... THE RAP IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE LLJ WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 50KTS OVER THE
SANDHILLS. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE ECLIPSING 30F IN FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 OVERNIGHT... BUT
PUSHED THE POPS BACK UNTIL AFTER 09Z. HRRR KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH 08Z... AND SOME NCAR WRF MEMBERS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
09Z OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KLBF...
KBBW...AND KONL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED SHOWER OR STORM WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LIFT ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH CAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG AND POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX... BUT
LLJ WILL RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SHEAR. DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER... BREEZY CONDITIONS... AND H85 TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 9C... WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND OF MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S
PANHANDLE AND NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY... TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE MAV DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS NEAR 20C AT KIML AND 13C AT KVTN...
ECS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THERMAL AXIS... AND NAM SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA RESULTING IN 10C AT KIML AND 6C AT KVTN. HAVE COOLEST HIGHS
NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO COOLER H85 TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL
FGEN FORCING ENTERS THE PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z... SO EXPANDED POPS FROM
KIML TO KVTN. MENTIONED THUNDER WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG... 0-6KM
SHEAR NEAR 45KTS... AND LIFTED INDEX NEAR 0. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT KAIA AND KOGA SHOW SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295K AND 300K. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALSO CONTINUES WITH MIXING RATIOS NEARING 8G/KG AND DEW
POINTS PASSING 45F BY 21Z.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...AND
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...BRIEFLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA LINE. BY
MIDNIGHT...THE H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT SERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBR
PANHANDLE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPG LOW...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS MID LEVEL WAA AND LIFT. LIFT WILL
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INVOF OF THE H7
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY MENTION OF POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE NOTED PER NAM AND GFS FCST NEGATIVE H850 LIFTED INDICES. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE EAST ENTERING THE
WESTERN CWA...THEN EXITING THE EASTERN CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO COLD AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 LOW AND THIS TIES IN DIRECTLY TO SNOW
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST SOLN...WITH
THE ECMWF WARMEST AND THE NAM A COMPROMISE. ALSO...THE 12Z
GFS...AND00Z ECMWF FROM LAST NIGHT...LIFT THE H5 LOW IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS MORE EAST.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLN WHICH
WAS FAVORED. THIS SOLN GENERATES THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NERN PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY.
UTILIZING A 8-1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO SINCE TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER
30S...YIELDS 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO HOIST A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY FOR WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
EAST...A LATER CHANGEOVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FACILITATE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACCUMS WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD RAIN WEDS NIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDS AFTERNOON...THE NAM12 REMAINS
THE FARTHEST WEST WITH ITS DRYLINE WEDS AFTN AND BY 00Z
THURSDAY...IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM SOLN
INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE BULGE...JUST TO THE EAST OF
WHEELER COUNTY LATE WEDS AFTN. SWRLY H5 WINDS WILL CARRY THIS AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA...SO NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW...WILL END OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEING IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. IN THESE AREAS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MENTION WAS CONTINUED WITH THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BACK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 2C IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO -4C IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 50 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ATTM...THE MODELS DO KEEP THIS AIR
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MAY BE VULNERABLE TO
THIS ARCTIC AIR BACKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN
SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FROM 06Z ONWARD
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH 15Z...THE
EXIT TIME.
THE NAM...MET GUIDANCE...SREF AND TO A LIMITED EXTENT THE GFS AND
ECM SHOW MVFR CIGS...CURRENTLY ACROSS SCNTL TEXAS...LIFTING INTO
THE FCST AREA FROM 15Z ONWARD. THESE CIGS...IF THEY FORM...WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE PROGRESS OF
THE MVFR WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. THE MODELS MAY BE TOO
FAST.
LASTLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM FROM 21Z TUESDAY ONWARD
ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH NORTHEAST OR
230/20KT ACCORDING TO THE NAM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OF NEBRASKA. A SECONDARY LOW WAS NOTED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH. WEST OF THE TROUGH...RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EAST OF THE
TROUGH....SWRLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR WESTERN IOWA...INTO
FAR SERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WERE PRESENT WEST OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER A THICK VEIL OF CLOUD COVER. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE DRY AS SNOW AND RAIN WAS JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...FROM NORFOLK SE TO OMAHA AND FALLS CITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY IS TEMPERATURE. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS...LEADING TO COLDER HIGHS THAN EXPECTED TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE ALSO REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT A SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN BOYD... HOLT... AND WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
PERSISTENT SNOW HAS FALLEN JUST EAST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW BACKING UP INTO AREAS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281. SLOWED
THE CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE WEST... BUT RECENT TRENDS IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL LIFT
DISAPPEARING AFTER SUNSET. AN 850HPA RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVERNIGHT... HELPING TO WEAKEN THE FLOW. WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT... THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND LEAD
TO COOLER MIN TEMPS. LOWERED A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH
FOLLOWS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
SUNDAY... RIDGES AT 500HPA AND 850HPA CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH A LULL IN THE UPPER JET. ALL MODELS SHOWING DECENT WAA
WITH H85 TEMPS AT KLBF RISING FROM AROUND 0C AT 12Z TO 7C AT 00Z.
TEMPS APPROACH 8C IN THE PANHANDLE BUT STAY AROUND 3C FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. A DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL AID IN WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN MIXING TO 750HPA PER NAM SOUNDINGS... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 60F SEEM REASONABLE SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE. THE
HIGHS ALSO AGREE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE LOW RH IN THE
AFTERNOON... NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF HWY 83... WIND
WILL NOT SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL OFFER UP SOME DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EAST AS A
CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NRN UTAH AND SWRN
WYOMING. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS INDICATE SOME MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FAR EASTERN CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL
LIFT A DECENT AREA OF MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL END BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS REACHING 45 TO 50
DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH HEATING AND THE APPG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA TUES AFTN. I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A ERICSON TO SPRINGVIEW LINE AS THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...I DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRAS
AS THESE AREAS AS THEY WILL BE INVOF OF THE H7 FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A MIX
OF RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDS
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT. QPF/S WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM...SO
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY DECENT SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...BRINGING GOOD RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1005 PM SATURDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY COLLAPSED
WITH ONLY RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NC COAST AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. 01Z RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT OVERHEAD AND THEREFORE
I AM RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS BACK TOO MUCH...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
A LINE FROM FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SOUTHPORT
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
REMAIN.
WHY DID PRECIPITATION FALL APART? WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS INJECTING HEAT INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LIKELY REDUCING INSTABILITY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE IS SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS GULF CONVECTION SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT
OTHERWISE ONGOING LOCALLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
THEIR CURRENT READINGS AND REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM FOLLOWS...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
LINKED TO AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND 300 MB WINDS ACCELERATING INTO A JET
STREAK CENTERED ACROSS VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WON`T
BECOME ANY MORE INTENSE THAN IT IS NOW...BUT SHOULD LARGELY
MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
CAPE FEAR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...DROPPING A WIDESPREAD
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE A FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM NEAR COLUMBIA TO DARLINGTON...THEN VEERED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD GEORGETOWN AND OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
TOWER. DEWPOINT MAY BE THE BEST ANALYSIS FIELD TO USE WITH THIS
FRONT AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO
THE 50S TO THE NORTH. SURFACE PARCELS ARE EITHER THERMODYNAMICALLY
STABLE ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA OR CAPPED ACROSS NE SOUTH
CAROLINA...HOWEVER WHEN CONSIDERING A PARCEL ORIGINATING FROM
ABOUT 4000 FEET ALOFT CAPE RANGES FROM 200 J/KG ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA TO NEARLY 500 J/KG OVER MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN. THIS
EXPLAINS THE LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS MADE EARLY TO RAISE POPS TO 100 PERCENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE AND MARION TO WHITEVILLE
AND WILMINGTON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION...THEN BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS AND NAM ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE WITH SURFACE WINDS...HOWEVER THE 17Z AND 18Z
RUNS OF THE HRRRX (NOT HRRR) APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
OBSERVED RADAR ECHOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JAMMED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINA INTERIOR WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST AND INSHORE WATERS WAVERS BUT EXHIBITS
LITTLE MOVEMENT...BEFORE LIFTING AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE PERIODS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ARE APT TO OCCUR SUNDAY...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL APPEARS TIMED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY. INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD SHOWS 2 MAXIMUMS
WITH THE FIRST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS AND LOW
LEVEL BUOYANCY INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FLEDGLING WARM FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND PEAK IN CAPE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN MONDAY AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
REACHES THE COAST AROUND 5-6 PM. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY COULD BE STRONG. 1/2-1 INCH RAINFALL AVERAGES ACROSS NE
SC AND SE NC SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED.
MILDEST SEGMENT IN THIS PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE STRONG. THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REGION AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY TUE WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. WEAK 5H RIDGE BUILDING ON
WED SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER WED AND WED NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND PREVENT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WED AND WED NIGHT.
AMPLIFICATION OF MID LEVEL PATTERN AND RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
STARTS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THU-SAT. THIS IS
DOWN TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN. THE GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT INTERESTINGLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. USUALLY
AMPLIFICATION SLOWS THINGS DOWN BUT THE STRONGER MID LEVEL PUSH IN
THE GFS HELPS MOVE THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM EAST AT A FASTER RATE. WORTH
NOTING THE WPC SOLUTION AND THE 12Z CANADIAN ARE IN THE ECMWF
CAMP...AS IS THE INHERITED FORECAST. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN
THINKING WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE LATE WEEK FORECAST.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THU AND REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THU NIGHT AND FRI...THROUGH SAT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS WEST
OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF REPRIEVE FOR PCPN OCCURRENCE THRU DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS FROM EITHER REDUCED CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT...AND/OR...
REDUCED VSBY FROM BR AND/OR PCPN THRUOUT THIS 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE NEXT PCPN OCCURRENCE WILL BEGIN DURING DAYTIME THIS
MORNING...WITH STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN. THE STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY
RESIDES OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND THEN EXTENDS INLAND
FROM CHS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY OSCILLATE BACK TO THE NORTH
LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH AN INCREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IE. THUNDER.
HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE OPPORTUNE TIME FOR THUNDER OCCURRENCE
IN RELATION TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROF MOVING
OVERHEAD IN CONCERT WITH THE NORTH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBLE 25 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE
CONVECTION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MVFR/IFR FROM REDUCED VSBY FROM PCPN
AND FOG...AND LOW CIGS...WILL ALL CONTINUE THRU MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. CFP LATE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THERE-AFTER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR SHOWERS AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND WHERE GUSTS HAVE
RECENTLY REACHED 16-19 KNOTS OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE TREND
STILL SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKER WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO A SOLID 4 FEET NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...2-4 FEET ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION FROM 615 PM FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS...10-15 KT FROM THE ENE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN
THE SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE FORECAST
RAIN CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR INDICATES THERE IS A SEVERAL
HOUR BLOCK OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING IN THE MID-
LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE LATEST CHECK ARE 3-4 FEET
IN A COMBINATION OF 8-9 SECOND SWELL AND 4-6 SECOND WIND WAVES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND MUCH OF SUNDAY
BEFORE VEERING TO S-SW AS A STALLED COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR HEADLINES APPEAR NEEDED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SSW-SW WINDS 15 KT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM AT TIMES ALONG
WITH ISOLATED GUSTY TSTM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
IT ARE BELOW ADVISORY RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SW WINDS 15-20 KT EARLY MONDAY AND 3-5 FT SEAS. A
GOOD IDEA TO GET RADAR UPDATES...AS THE MARINE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH TRANSIT OF A WARM AND A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
TUE INTO WED WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER WED AND WED NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW TUE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
WEAKENING GRADIENT TUE WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY DECREASE IN SPEEDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TUE NIGHT SLOWLY
VEERS TO EAST LATER WED AND THEN SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT ON THU ENDING UP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT THU AND AROUND 20 KT THU NIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT TUE AM WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED EVENING. DEVELOPMENT
OF ONSHORE FLOW WED NIGHT WILL COMMENCE AN INCREASING TREND IN
SEAS...ACCELERATED BY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AND AN SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
124 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO AROUND 60 SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL UPDATE
THIS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON SAT TRENDS. SHALLOW COOL AIR FLOWING SOUTH ALONG TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BUT SUN APPEARS TO BE ERODING THE CLOUDS RESULTING IN A
SLOWER EFFECTIVE MOVEMENT SOUTH. TEMPS NORTH CENTRAL STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S THERE TO UPPER 50S WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MAIN UPDATES INVOLVE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
USED THE HRRR FOR RH TODAY GIVING UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
WITHOUT WIND THE FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY
BUT VERY LOW RH CONTINUES TO BE A COMMON CHARACTERISTIC LATELY.
RADARS FROM KBIS/KABR/KMVX SHOW VIRGA FROM MID LEVEL ACCAS. THIS
WILL MOVE EAST. SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL BETWEEN TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND WESTHOPE. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPS AND INCREASE CLOUDS FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A PLEASANT EASTER IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE DOWN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT. THIS NORMALLY WOULD
CAUSE SOME FIRE CONCERN...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TUESDAY A STRONG STORM TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS MODELS DIFFER ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE PICTURE IS TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST INDICATION IS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
THIS TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND LEAD TO MELTING OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW.
WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR RATHER
WINDY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VIRGA
POSSIBLE AT KISN WITH CIGS AT 9KFT UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KMOT/KJMS
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY. WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND TIMING...WILL KEEP
CIGS SCT015-025 FOR KMOT/KJMS DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME AND
LET THE NEXT FORECAST ADJUST IF LOWER CIG TRENDS CONTINUE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1156 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON SAT TRENDS. SHALLOW COOL AIR FLOWING SOUTH ALONG TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BUT SUN APPEARS TO BE ERODING THE CLOUDS RESULTING IN A
SLOWER EFFECTIVE MOVEMENT SOUTH. TEMPS NORTH CENTRAL STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S THERE TO UPPER 50S WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MAIN UPDATES INVOLVE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
USED THE HRRR FOR RH TODAY GIVING UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
WITHOUT WIND THE FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY
BUT VERY LOW RH CONTINUES TO BE A COMMON CHARACTERISTIC LATELY.
RADARS FROM KBIS/KABR/KMVX SHOW VIRGA FROM MID LEVEL ACCAS. THIS
WILL MOVE EAST. SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL BETWEEN TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND WESTHOPE. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPS AND INCREASE CLOUDS FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A PLEASANT EASTER IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE DOWN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT. THIS NORMALLY WOULD
CAUSE SOME FIRE CONCERN...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TUESDAY A STRONG STORM TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS MODELS DIFFER ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE PICTURE IS TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST INDICATION IS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
THIS TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND LEAD TO MELTING OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW.
WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR RATHER
WINDY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VIRGA
POSSIBLE AT KISN WITH CIGS AT 9KFT UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KMOT/KJMS
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY. WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND TIMING...WILL KEEP
CIGS SCT015-025 FOR KMOT/KJMS DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME AND
LET THE NEXT FORECAST ADJUST IF LOWER CIG TRENDS CONTINUE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
944 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MAIN UPDATES INVOLVE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
USED THE HRRR FOR RH TODAY GIVING UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST.
WITHOUT WIND THE FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY
BUT VERY LOW RH CONTINUES TO BE A COMMON CHARACTERISTIC LATELY.
RADARS FROM KBIS/KABR/KMVX SHOW VIRGA FROM MID LEVEL ACCAS. THIS
WILL MOVE EAST. SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL BETWEEN TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND WESTHOPE. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPS AND INCREASE CLOUDS FAR NORTH CENTRAL TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
A PLEASANT EASTER IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT IN THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE DOWN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT. THIS NORMALLY WOULD
CAUSE SOME FIRE CONCERN...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
TUESDAY A STRONG STORM TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS MODELS DIFFER ON STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE PICTURE IS TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST INDICATION IS
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
THIS TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND LEAD TO MELTING OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW.
WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR RATHER
WINDY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
911 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE IS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER NE
AND N CNTRL OH. THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN IN A FEW
PLACES.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR PIX AND INSISTENCE OF LIGHT ACTIVITY ON THE
HRRR AND RAP WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT THEN
TAPER DOWN DURING THE LAST THIRD OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO WIN OUT.
STILL THINK THAT AS LONG AS THERE IS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON`T BE
ABLE TO DROP TO 32 SO NOT SEEING A THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIP.
LOWS GENERALLY 32 TO 35 EXCEPT AROUND 30 FOR INLAND NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT INLAND AND GRADUALLY MIX AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 50 ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 NORTHWEST PA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING AND IT WILL GET CHILLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR
COULD BEGIN TO RISE ELSEWHERE AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A VARIETY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY MIXED WITH SOME SUNSHINE. OUR WARM UPS HAVE BEEN FAST
AND FURIOUS THIS SPRING AND WILL NOT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE OF LOWER
60S MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER COLORADO LOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A NICE PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE
DEVELOPING JET AS A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. NO WAY TO KNOW HOW MUCH THINGS WILL
PHASE BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO FORECAST AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY THERE MAY BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE TIME OF DAY. HIGHS AT LEAST
IN THE MID 60S AND IT COULD BE ANOTHER OF THOSE DAYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES SNEAK TO 70 IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MEANS ONLY ONE THING FOR THE EAST. DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A
BROAD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS PRESENT ALONG WITH SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT AND WILL KEEP A MINIMAL
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...BY MONDAY...A
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT MODELS
SO FAR KEEP THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG WARM-UPS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER AT ERI OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE AT ALL OTHER
SITES THROUGH 2Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT CAK THROUGH 01Z. OTHERWISE REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL OCCUR FROM 5-7Z IN
NW OHIO AND NW PA WITH GRADUAL EROSION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW GALES AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DISCONTINUED. I THINK THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 9 PM. LATER SHIFT CAN GO AHEAD AND DROP IT AS
APPROPRIATE. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND VARIABLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. COLD DOME WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS OVER LAND RATHER THAN OVER THE WATER. EVENTUALLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVERCOME THE COLD DOME
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS
FINALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND IS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ONE MORE
TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES THAT WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THE 2ND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME THE S/W ARRIVES. THE
NEAR TERM HRRR AND RAP PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF TONIGHT...MOSTLY
UNTIL 06Z. THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE AS LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE COULD MEAN
SPRINKLES VERSUS FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THINK TEMPS WILL
TRY AND STAY ABOVE FREEZING AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS SO
DON`T THINK A PROBLEM WITH FREEZING TYPE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST OHIO
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT MAY STAY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE. THE WIND AND CLOUDS WILL KEEPS TEMPS FROM CRASHING. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S...MAYBE SOME UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER
SECTIONS OF INLAND NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT INLAND AND GRADUALLY MIX AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 50 ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 NORTHWEST PA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING AND IT WILL GET CHILLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR
COULD BEGIN TO RISE ELSEWHERE AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A VARIETY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY MIXED WITH SOME SUNSHINE. OUR WARM UPS HAVE BEEN FAST
AND FURIOUS THIS SPRING AND WILL NOT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE OF LOWER
60S MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER COLORADO LOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A NICE PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE
DEVELOPING JET AS A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. NO WAY TO KNOW HOW MUCH THINGS WILL
PHASE BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO FORECAST AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY THERE MAY BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE TIME OF DAY. HIGHS AT LEAST
IN THE MID 60S AND IT COULD BE ANOTHER OF THOSE DAYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES SNEAK TO 70 IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MEANS ONLY ONE THING FOR THE EAST. DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A
BROAD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS PRESENT ALONG WITH SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT AND WILL KEEP A MINIMAL
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...BY MONDAY...A
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT MODELS
SO FAR KEEP THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG WARM-UPS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER AT ERI OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE AT ALL OTHER
SITES THROUGH 2Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT CAK THROUGH 01Z. OTHERWISE REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL OCCUR FROM 5-7Z IN
NW OHIO AND NW PA WITH GRADUAL EROSION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW GALES AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DISCONTINUED. I THINK THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 9 PM. LATER SHIFT CAN GO AHEAD AND DROP IT AS
APPROPRIATE. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND VARIABLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. COLD DOME WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS OVER LAND RATHER THAN OVER THE WATER. EVENTUALLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVERCOME THE COLD DOME
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS
FINALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-148-149-
168-169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
619 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY
DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK
OFF A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT
SEE US BEING ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...12Z NAM AND ECMWF
ABOUT 1 TO 2C COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. LOWERED MIN TEMP AOA 4000
THSD A DEGREE OR TWO...TRENDING COLDER THAN GFS.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THINNING MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AOB 5 THSD FT...SO CLOUD COVER TOUGH...WITH HOLES OPENING
UP. STILL HAVE THE LOWERING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...MAYBE A SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER UP HIGH.
STILL THOUGHT ENOUGH CLEARING IN NE KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP NEAR FREEZING FOR DAWN TUESDAY. WILL INSERT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR KY SINCE THAT IS WHERE OUR SPRING
FREEZE PROGRAM AS ALREADY STARTED. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT...DID NOT POST A
FREEZE WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR VICINITY AT START OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGHT NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY FORM IN VALLEYS BEFORE THE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ANOTHER NICE MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS WARM MARCH OF 2016.
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 14C IN SRN
LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETER COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGES INTO BKW DUE TO SE FLOW. COULD EVEN GET A SHOWER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME THUNDER AT WESTERN TAF
SITES...BUT DUE TO TIME OF DAY THINK CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS
THINGS MOVE EAST. MVFR CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. ALSO HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF NEEDING TO ADD IFR TEMPO AS SHOWERS GET CLOSER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE KTOL
AREA 3-4Z...THE ISLANDS TO KCMH 06Z...KCLE 09-10Z AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY 12-14Z. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR POP TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING BRINGING THE FIRST SHOT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO WRN
COUNTIES AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING NORTHEAST
WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OHIO BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 04-05Z AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AT
LEAST WEST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
INCREASING WINDS POST COLD FRONT MAINLY 08-12Z. MODELS SHOW 850MB
WINDS APPROACHING 45-50KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS FAR
ENOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THAT I BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE OK
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS TOWARDS MORNING IN THE WEST WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER
35 KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE BETWEEN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
HURON WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. CONCERNED AGAIN
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE WNW FLOW SHOULD BE STRONGEST. WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE HAVE DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST MONDAY. HIGH WILL ONLY REACH 45 TO 50. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BEGIN WITH A LOW CHANCE POP FAR NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
A DECENT SSW GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES FROM THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE GLFMX SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL GET INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN ECMWF...BOTH MODELS BRING
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR
TSRA DURING THE DAY...AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 55KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT COOLER TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. ANOTHER BLAST OF WINTER DUE SUNDAY. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C
ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TO OUR WEST HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER
MI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. AT 3PM THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CHICAGO AREA SSW TO
CENTRAL/ERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE KTOL AREA 3-4Z
THE ISLANDS TO KCMH 06Z...KCLE 09-10Z AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
12-14Z. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR POP TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING
BRINGING THE FIRST SHOT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO WRN COUNTIES
AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING NORTHEAST WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OHIO BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 04-05Z AND EVENTUALLY SPREADINGOVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
AT LEAST WEST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
ABOUT INCREASING WINDS POST COLD FRONT MAINLY 08-12Z. MODELS SHOW
850MB WINDS APPROACHING 45-50KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION. GUIDANCE
IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THAT I BELIEVE MOST AREAS
WILL BE OK BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS TOWARDS MORNING IN THE
WEST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE BETWEEN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
HURON WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. CONCERNED AGAIN
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE WNW FLOW SHOULD BE STRONGEST. WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE HAVE DECREASING POPS WEST TO
EAST MONDAY. HIGH WILL ONLY REACH 45 TO 50. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BEGIN WITH A LOW CHANCE POP FAR NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
A DECENT SSW GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKES FROM THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE GLFMX SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL GET INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN ECMWF...BOTH MODELS BRING
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR
TSRA DURING THE DAY...AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 55KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT COOLER TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. ANOTHER BLAST OF WINTER DUE SUNDAY. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
EITHER WAY MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C
ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. OVERNIGHT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR STL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SOME TSRA...BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MODELS MOVE LOW INTO NW OHIO TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SPC HAS WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL RISK. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AS 925MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50KT OVER THE WEST HALF. BEHIND THE FRONT W-SW
WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
233 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. WARMER
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT THURSDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN OVER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY
DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK
OFF A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT
SEE US BEING ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...12Z NAM AND ECMWF
ABOUT 1 TO 2C COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. LOWERED MIN TEMP AOA 4000
THSD A DEGREE OR TWO...TRENDING COLDER THAN GFS.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THINNING MOISTURE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AOB 5 THSD FT...SO CLOUD COVER TOUGH...WITH HOLES OPENING
UP. STILL HAVE THE LOWERING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...MAYBE A SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER UP HIGH.
STILL THOUGHT ENOUGH CLEARING IN NE KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE MIN TEMP NEAR FREEZING FOR DAWN TUESDAY. WILL INSERT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR KY SINCE THAT IS WHERE OUR SPRING
FREEZE PROGRAM AS ALREADY STARTED. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT...DID NOT POST A
FREEZE WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR VICINITY AT START OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGHT NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY FORM IN VALLEYS BEFORE THE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES 06Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ANOTHER NICE MARCH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...FOR THIS WARM MARCH OF 2016.
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO 14C IN SRN
LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME RAIN EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT LIKELY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW SFC CAPE AND HIGH DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETER COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT THUNDER UNDER LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY.
BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
BUT FASTER SYSTEM CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGES INTO BKW DUE TO SE FLOW. COULD EVEN GET A SHOWER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME THUNDER AT WESTERN TAF
SITES...BUT DUE TO TIME OF DAY THINK CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS
THINGS MOVE EAST. MVFR CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. ALSO HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF NEEDING TO ADD IFR TEMPO AS SHOWERS GET CLOSER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/KTB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE/FRONT LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH MORNING UPDATE HAD PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CWA...HOWEVER RADAR ECHOS HAVE LARGELY
DRIED UP SO TOOK THAT MENTION BACK OUT. HRRR STILL TRIES TO KICK
OFF A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH THICK CIRRUS NOW IN PLACE...DO NOT
SEE US BEING ABLE TO POP ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CU.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LOWER INTO THIS EVENING...AS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL THINKING WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE 80-100 POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES. MUCH LIKE THE LAST DECENT COLD FRONT WE
HAD PASS...PWATS DRY UP SOME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SE OHIO -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH...TAPERING DOWN
TO ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ANY INSTABILITY OF NOTE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR WEST UNTIL SOME
200-400J/KG CAPE SLIDES THROUGH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND BY
THAT TIME WE ARE GETTING INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-79 CORRIDOR BEFORE FADING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WELL INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE LAST TO BREAK IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY MORNING AS 850 MB THERMAL TROF HOLDS THERE
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT FLOW
MAKING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
FREEZING ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND FROST WILL BE LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GRADUAL WARMING MID WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD...OUT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. POSSIBLY SPREADING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES END OF THE WEEK OR EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOWARDS END OF THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH...WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGES INTO BKW DUE TO SE FLOW. COULD EVEN GET A SHOWER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS. ALSO INCLUDED SOME THUNDER AT WESTERN TAF
SITES...BUT DUE TO TIME OF DAY THINK CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS
THINGS MOVE EAST. MVFR CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY. ALSO HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF NEEDING TO ADD IFR TEMPO AS SHOWERS GET CLOSER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Rain chances will remain confined to the NE OK sites this morning
and will be handled with tempo groups. Thunder chances remain too
low for TAF inclusion. Cigs may also lower to MVFR categories
briefly this morning across NE OK. Elsewhere...VFR conditions
will prevail...with skies clearing by late afternoon across the AR
sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area early
this morning, with most of the rain after sunrise being confined
to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will keep all
precipitation liquid, although the HRRR says it will be a close
call in the northwest corner of the forecast area. Skies will
clear rapidly this afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into
the 50s.
A cold night is on tap tonight as surface high pressure resides
over the area, and most places will droip to near or below
freezing. Thus, will issue a freeze warning for all but far
southeast Oklahoma from midnight until 9 am Monday.
Increasing southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures
Monday through Wednesday. The next storm system will bring
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
into Wednesday night, with southeast parts of the forecast area
seeing the greatest coverage and amounts of rainfall.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will then prevail late
this week into the weekend. The models have backed off on the
southwest progression of a cold arctic airmass late next weekend
and will await later data to see if this trend continues.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
OKZ049-054>076.
AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area early
this morning, with most of the rain after sunrise being confined
to northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will keep all
precipitation liquid, although the HRRR says it will be a close
call in the northwest corner of the forecast area. Skies will
clear rapidly this afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into
the 50s.
A cold night is on tap tonight as surface high pressure resides
over the area, and most places will droip to near or below
freezing. Thus, will issue a freeze warning for all but far
southeast Oklahoma from midnight until 9 am Monday.
Increasing southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures
Monday through Wednesday. The next storm system will bring
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
into Wednesday night, with southeast parts of the forecast area
seeing the greatest coverage and amounts of rainfall.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will then prevail late
this week into the weekend. The models have backed off on the
southwest progression of a cold arctic airmass late next weekend
and will await later data to see if this trend continues.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 32 69 47 / 70 0 0 0
FSM 58 33 69 44 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 58 31 69 48 / 30 0 0 0
BVO 55 26 68 41 / 80 0 0 0
FYV 51 26 66 38 / 40 0 0 0
BYV 52 29 66 41 / 40 0 0 0
MKO 56 31 68 46 / 50 0 0 0
MIO 51 29 67 44 / 80 0 0 0
F10 57 31 68 48 / 50 0 0 0
HHW 61 34 69 47 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
OKZ049-054>076.
AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
900 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MID WEEK...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS THICK WHERE THEY ARE BUT ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME GOING
ANY FARTHER TO THE WEST. A LITTLE DZ DOWN IN THE LOWER SUSQ. THEY
HAVE BEGUN TO SPILL OVER MT NITTANY AND NOW COVER MORE THAN HALF
THE SKY LOCALLY. HOWEVER...FLOW IS SLATED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
IN THE CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME MIXING - ESP ON THE
EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK AND IN THE SOUTH WHERE HOLES EXIST.
THUS...THE MIXING AND HIGH MOISTURE MAY STILL LIFT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAKE 20-30PCT COVG CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN.
PREV...
HRRR 925 MB RH DEPICTING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING...AS LOW CIGS BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS CLOUD COVER REMAINING CONSTANT IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM MD/VA AND WILL BRUSH MY SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING.
MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN SUBDUED TEMPERATURE CURVES AS
HIGHS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL BE SOME 6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MARITIME REGIME BUT IT APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...A NICER DAY IS IN STORE FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
60S..WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ONLY SEES MID 50S FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DIRECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW WILL
BE SPAWNED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
THE FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME WET WEATHER ON MONDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS LATER
THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR WED INTO THU...EDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME...GIVEN STRONG
SW FLOW. TENDENCY THIS SEASON IS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.
DID CUT BACK ON POPS SOME PRIOR TO THU NIGHT. BASED ON EC MODEL
AND PATTERN FCST.
VERY DEEP COLD AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND BUT DID ADJUST SOME TO FIT IN WITH OTHERS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE SE AS E/SE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT 12Z REACHING KIPT-KSEG AND ON THE
DOORSTEP OF KUNV /WE CAN SEE THE DECK CREEPING OUR WAY OUT THE
WINDOW/. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY...WITH WESTERN TERMINALS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING AT KJST AND THROUGH LATE DAY AT KBFD.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE THE
CIGS A BIT WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LOWER SUSQ UP TO MVFR AND
CENTRAL MTNS NEARING VFR CIG FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
BY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL AGAIN BE LOWERING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS WILL SETTLE INTO WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY /WITH PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA/. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TO
START THE DAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE HALF AS DAY
PROGRESSES. CIG RESTRICTIONS DO LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
NORTH AND WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CFROPA AM. SHOWERS EARLY. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NORTHWEST.
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON SE. BREEZY NW WIND.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
751 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MID WEEK...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR 925 MB RH DEPICTING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING...AS LOW CIGS BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS CLOUD COVER REMAINING CONSTANT IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM MD/VA AND WILL BRUSH MY SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING.
MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN SUBDUED TEMPERATURE CURVES AS
HIGHS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL BE SOME 6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MARITIME REGIME BUT IT APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...A NICER DAY IS IN STORE FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
60S..WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ONLY SEES MID 50S FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DIRECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW WILL
BE SPAWNED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
THE FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME WET WEATHER ON MONDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS LATER
THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR WED INTO THU...EDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME...GIVEN STRONG
SW FLOW. TENDENCY THIS SEASON IS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.
DID CUT BACK ON POPS SOME PRIOR TO THU NIGHT. BASED ON EC MODEL
AND PATTERN FCST.
VERY DEEP COLD AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND BUT DID ADJUST SOME TO FIT IN WITH OTHERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE SE AS E/SE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT 12Z REACHING KIPT-KSEG AND ON THE
DOORSTEP OF KUNV /WE CAN SEE THE DECK CREEPING OUR WAY OUT THE
WINDOW/. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST TODAY...WITH WESTERN TERMINALS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING AT KJST AND THROUGH LATE DAY AT KBFD.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE THE
CIGS A BIT WHICH SHOULD BRING THE LOWER SUSQ UP TO MVFR AND
CENTRAL MTNS NEARING VFR CIG FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
BY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL AGAIN BE LOWERING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. REDUCTIONS WILL SETTLE INTO WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY /WITH PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA/. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TO
START THE DAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SE HALF AS DAY
PROGRESSES. CIG RESTRICTIONS DO LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
NORTH AND WEST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CFROPA AM. SHOWERS EARLY. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NORTHWEST.
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON SE. BREEZY NW WIND.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MARITIME AIR INTO THE STATE...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. FAIR BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MID WEEK...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR 925 MB RH DEPICTING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING...AS LOW CIGS BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS CLOUD COVER REMAINING CONSTANT IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM MD/VA AND WILL BRUSH MY SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING.
MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN SUBDUED TEMPERATURE CURVES AS
HIGHS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL BE SOME 6 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MARITIME REGIME BUT IT APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...A NICER DAY IS IN STORE FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
60S..WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ONLY SEES MID 50S FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DIRECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW WILL
BE SPAWNED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN
THE FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME WET WEATHER ON MONDAY...AND COOLER WEATHER AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS LATER
THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WEST...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR WED INTO THU...EDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME...GIVEN STRONG
SW FLOW. TENDENCY THIS SEASON IS FOR FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.
DID CUT BACK ON POPS SOME PRIOR TO THU NIGHT. BASED ON EC MODEL
AND PATTERN FCST.
VERY DEEP COLD AIRMASS COULD WORK INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT.
USED THE SUPERBLEND BUT DID ADJUST SOME TO FIT IN WITH OTHERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SE /LOCATION INDICATED
QUITE WELL IN THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY/ AS E/SE FLOW
PERSISTS. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ AT
08Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS THROUGH MID MORNING. WESTERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THE
LONGEST...WITH CIGS REACHING KJST IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY AT
KBFD. IN ADDITION...KMDT-KLNS MAY EVEN SLIP TO IFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME AROUND SUNRISE. MIXING IS THEN EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE
THE CIGS A BIT. HOWEVER...IT COULD ALSO RESULT IN STABILITY AND
ISOLD/SCT SHRA IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THRU ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RA/BR EXPECTED SUN
NIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ESP SE ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CFROPA AM. SHOWERS EARLY. RESTRICTIONS PERSIST NORTHWEST.
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON SE. BREEZY NW WIND.
TUE...CIG RESTRICTIONS POSS NW. NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...TWO SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED JETS
WILL EFFECT THE AREA. FIRST SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE CONVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT NORTH. MAIN SYSTEM
IS SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT FROM THIS STRONGER WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SPC HRRR MODEL SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY THERE AND EXPECT
STORMS TO ERUPT THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MOVE
EAST. DUE TO TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND UPPER SUPPORT BEST NORTH OF THE
AREA...DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NE TN AND SW VA AND EASTERN TN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE MS AND WESTERN TN VALLEYS. MUCH COLDER MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS WILL STAY UP SO FROST NOT VERY LIKELY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AROUND HIGH WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST OVER
NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BUT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...MORE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 52 66 41 / 60 70 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 50 63 38 / 40 80 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 49 63 39 / 40 80 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 50 62 34 / 30 70 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO GREATER THAN BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WIND EXPECTED AFTER FROPA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME NE/E OVERNIGHT. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 281 MONDAY MORNING...MFR WEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS/
NEAR SFC SATURATION AND DRY ALOFT PER VARIOUS LAPS ANALYSIS
AND HRRR DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS/LGT OR CALM WIND IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT.
MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL NOON BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...COMBO OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THIS MRNG.
IMPROVEMENT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN AROUND AND AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR
BY 18Z AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LIGHT -DZ REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z-24Z...BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. N-LY WIND 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVNG...WITH DECOUPLING HAPPENING TOWARD 03Z MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT A RETURN OF 3500 FEET
STRATUS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONG AWAITED FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY FROM
DALLAS TO SAN ANGELO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
MORNING...REACHING SOUTH TEXAS MID-LATE MORNING TODAY. THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR
RIDING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL BE ABLE TO RESULT
IN DENSE FOG ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER LAND...THE THICK CLOUD COVER
APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION NEAR BEEVILLE IN THE LOWER LYING AREA SPOTS...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA MAY ALSO SUPPORT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND TEXAS TECH PRECIP MODELS ALONG WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
A DRIER PERIOD BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE NOON HOUR...ONLY TO PICK UP
SPOTTY SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRONG CAP
OVER THE REGION...AND MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED TO NEAR 1 INCH AT
TIMES...HAVE REMOVED 20 PERCENT POPS...YET LEFT IN WORDING FOR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN PICK UP ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SECOND PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
BY TONIGHT...CLEARING AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO
THE 50S...WITH LOWER 50S TOWARD THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MONDAY...TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 10 AM. WARM MOIST AIR WILL RIDE OVER COOL
SHELF WATERS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-
TERM IS HOW TO HANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WHERE THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...BEFORE GOING
INTO THAT WILL FIRST DISCUSS THE EARLIER PERIODS WHERE THINGS
REMAIN A BIT MORE STRAIGHT-FORWARD.
MOISTURE COMES BACK NICELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND SOME WEAK ENERGY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED
SOMEWHAT SO MAY ONLY SEE SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DRYING
THINGS OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND KEEP IT DRY ON THURSDAY...AND IT STILL
LOOKS TO BE WARM THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE WARM AS WELL IF DRIER
AIR GETS IN HERE FAST ENOUGH...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES 00Z THURSDAY
GET RATHER WARM. AM GOING WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL
MAY ONLY BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE DAY (ANYWAY...RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN AREAS ONLY ON WEDNESDAY).
AFTER THAT...THINGS GET RATHER COMPLICATED...ACTUALLY STARTING ON
THURSDAY. GFS IS DEVELOPING A MORE POTENT SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND HAS A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. ECMWF BRINGS A BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN GFS IS SHOWING (GFS IS KEEPING BEST MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH GIVEN STRONGER SURFACE PATTERN). ECMWF THEN BRINGS THE
MAIN PART OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME
(WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE THEN)...WHILE GFS IS MORE ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME (WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME).
THUS...QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS (EACH OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER). AFTER DISCUSSING THINGS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADJUST THE FORECAST ONCE THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST
MODELS (NEW DAY 8/SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS AS WELL BUT GHOST 10S
SUNDAY NIGHT). DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT SWAY
TOO FAR FROM THE SUPERBLEND CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND MOST OTHER
PARAMETERS...ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE SKY COVER TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WHERE RAIN CHANCES WERE MENTIONED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 59 75 66 79 70 / 10 10 10 30 10
VICTORIA 51 75 61 78 67 / 0 10 20 30 20
LAREDO 59 80 64 86 70 / 10 0 10 10 10
ALICE 56 78 63 83 69 / 10 0 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 57 74 65 77 69 / 10 10 20 30 10
COTULLA 56 78 62 83 68 / 0 0 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 58 76 65 82 69 / 10 10 10 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 60 72 67 76 70 / 10 10 20 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
849 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS/
NEAR SFC SATURATION AND DRY ALOFT PER VARIOUS LAPS ANALYSIS
AND HRRR DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS/LGT OR CALM WIND IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL NOON BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...COMBO OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THIS MRNG.
IMPROVEMENT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN AROUND AND AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR
BY 18Z AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LIGHT -DZ REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z-24Z...BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. N-LY WIND 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVNG...WITH DECOUPLING HAPPENING TOWARD 03Z MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT A RETURN OF 3500 FEET
STRATUS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONG AWAITED FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY FROM
DALLAS TO SAN ANGELO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
MORNING...REACHING SOUTH TEXAS MID-LATE MORNING TODAY. THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR
RIDING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL BE ABLE TO RESULT
IN DENSE FOG ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER LAND...THE THICK CLOUD COVER
APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING THE LOWER VISIBILITIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION NEAR BEEVILLE IN THE LOWER LYING AREA SPOTS...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA MAY ALSO SUPPORT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND TEXAS TECH PRECIP MODELS ALONG WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
A DRIER PERIOD BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE NOON HOUR...ONLY TO PICK UP
SPOTTY SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRONG CAP
OVER THE REGION...AND MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED TO NEAR 1 INCH AT
TIMES...HAVE REMOVED 20 PERCENT POPS...YET LEFT IN WORDING FOR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN PICK UP ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SECOND PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
BY TONIGHT...CLEARING AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO
THE 50S...WITH LOWER 50S TOWARD THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MONDAY...TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 10 AM. WARM MOIST AIR WILL RIDE OVER COOL
SHELF WATERS LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG-
TERM IS HOW TO HANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WHERE THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...BEFORE GOING
INTO THAT WILL FIRST DISCUSS THE EARLIER PERIODS WHERE THINGS
REMAIN A BIT MORE STRAIGHT-FORWARD.
MOISTURE COMES BACK NICELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND SOME WEAK ENERGY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED
SOMEWHAT SO MAY ONLY SEE SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DRYING
THINGS OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND KEEP IT DRY ON THURSDAY...AND IT STILL
LOOKS TO BE WARM THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE WARM AS WELL IF DRIER
AIR GETS IN HERE FAST ENOUGH...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES 00Z THURSDAY
GET RATHER WARM. AM GOING WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL
MAY ONLY BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE DAY (ANYWAY...RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN AREAS ONLY ON WEDNESDAY).
AFTER THAT...THINGS GET RATHER COMPLICATED...ACTUALLY STARTING ON
THURSDAY. GFS IS DEVELOPING A MORE POTENT SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND HAS A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. ECMWF BRINGS A BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN GFS IS SHOWING (GFS IS KEEPING BEST MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH GIVEN STRONGER SURFACE PATTERN). ECMWF THEN BRINGS THE
MAIN PART OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME
(WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE THEN)...WHILE GFS IS MORE ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME (WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME).
THUS...QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS (EACH OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER). AFTER DISCUSSING THINGS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO
ADJUST THE FORECAST ONCE THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST
MODELS (NEW DAY 8/SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS AS WELL BUT GHOST 10S
SUNDAY NIGHT). DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT SWAY
TOO FAR FROM THE SUPERBLEND CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND MOST OTHER
PARAMETERS...ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE SKY COVER TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WHERE RAIN CHANCES WERE MENTIONED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 59 75 66 79 / 10 10 10 10 30
VICTORIA 80 51 75 61 78 / 10 0 10 20 30
LAREDO 82 59 80 64 86 / 10 10 0 10 10
ALICE 81 56 78 63 83 / 10 10 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 77 57 74 65 77 / 10 10 10 20 30
COTULLA 82 56 78 62 83 / 10 0 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 82 58 76 65 82 / 10 10 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 78 60 72 67 76 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VISIBILITIES WERE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SOME THIS SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECTING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE AREAS IN THE FAR WEST
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST. ALSO CUT
BACK POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION.
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK CLOUDS WILL
HOLD OVER THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE
50S...WHILE KEEPING VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER
VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO THE ONGOING
UPSLOPE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED
LIKELY POPS NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING
AXIS OF CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AROUND DAWN BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WAS ROUGHLY FROM
KHSP TO KMJK.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A FRONT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LOWER THE CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AFTER 00Z/8PM WITH PERSISTENT
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWED GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE WEDGE BREAKING AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BETWEEN 10Z AND
14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS AND CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z/11AM.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT KBCB/KROA/KLYH AND KDAN WILL HAVE RAPID CLEARING.
WIND GUST THROUGH 18Z MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND
LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
955 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VISIBILITIES WERE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SOME THIS SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECTING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE AREAS IN THE FAR WEST
OUTSIDE THE WEDGE AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EAST. ALSO CUT
BACK POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION.
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK CLOUDS WILL
HOLD OVER THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE
50S...WHILE KEEPING VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER
VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO THE ONGOING
UPSLOPE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED
LIKELY POPS NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING
AXIS OF CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AROUND DAWN BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ESPCLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT WEDGE AIDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY
AROUND KBCB AND KDAN. MOST RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN KDAN/KLYH AND POINTS EAST WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN/SHOWERS. ALSO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING MAKING FOR ADDED MVFR
VSBYS. EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE KLWB-KBLF CORRIDOR
WHERE KLWB MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING BEFORE
POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT KBLF WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS VIA DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING
MOSTLY VFR CIGS TODAY AND LITTLE THREAT OF FOG OR DRIZZLE.
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TODAY BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ALTHOUGH BEST SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS DURING THE EVENING. THUS PLAN TO SLOWLY TRANSITION GOING
STRATIFORM -DZ OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE DURING THE EVENING
BUT WITHOUT THUNDER MENTION ATTM AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO LIFT OUT.
WINDS MOSTLY EAST 5-8 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING SE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
710 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK CLOUDS WILL
HOLD OVER THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE
50S...WHILE KEEPING VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER
VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF SHOWERS INTO THE ONGOING
UPSLOPE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED
LIKELY POPS NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING
AXIS OF CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW AROUND DAWN BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD
STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ESPCLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT WEDGE AIDED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIP. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY
AROUND KBCB AND KDAN. MOST RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN KDAN/KLYH AND POINTS EAST WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN/SHOWERS. ALSO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING MAKING FOR ADDED MVFR
VSBYS. EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE KLWB-KBLF CORRIDOR
WHERE KLWB MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING BEFORE
POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT KBLF WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS VIA DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING
MOSTLY VFR CIGS TODAY AND LITTLE THREAT OF FOG OR DRIZZLE.
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TODAY BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ALTHOUGH BEST SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS DURING THE EVENING. THUS PLAN TO SLOWLY TRANSITION GOING
STRATIFORM -DZ OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE DURING THE EVENING
BUT WITHOUT THUNDER MENTION ATTM AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO LIFT OUT.
WINDS MOSTLY EAST 5-8 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING SE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A COOL WEDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH
OVERALL DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NE...ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BASICALLY LOCK
IN LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL PER
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIXING OUT
ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
STABILITY INDICES INDICATE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST. THUS PLAN
TO HAVE LITTLE POP ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO SE WEST VA WHERE SHOULD PUNCH
INTO THE 60S...WHILE TRENDING MORE CHANCE COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AFTER 12Z
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY -RA/DZ WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.
OTRW CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA GIVEN
SUCH WARMTH ALOFT OVER A DEEP LATE MARCH WEDGE THAT COULD SCOUR SOME
TOWARD THE WESTERN BLUE RIDGE LATER ON. HOWEVER THINK WILL HOLD OVER
THE EAST WHERE WILL TRIM HIGHS BACK MORE INTO THE 50S...WHILE KEEPING
VALUES CLOSER TO 60 FAR SE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY SECTIONS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EASTERN VA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN LIFT TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WEDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH ANY INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DO COMBO A SWATH OF RAIN INTO THE ONGOING UPSLOPE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE WAVE. THUS HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS
NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH A LINGERING SWATH OF
CATEGORICAL BEFORE DIMINISHING TO CHANCE OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO THE NW SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN MOST DYNAMICS NORTH AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD EASILY SEE COVERAGE WEAKEN. THEREFORE ONLY UPPING POPS BACK
TO LOW LIKELYS FAR NW BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION LATE
FOR RESIDUAL CONVECTION PUSHING EAST. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH RISES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAD STARTS TO
WEAKEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM EDT SUNDAY...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS (NORTHERN STREAM-OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STREAM-OFF THE
VA/NC COAST) TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WESTERN
GREENBRIER. PRESSURE RISES AND A +40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. INVERSION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN
THE MID 50S ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO NEAR 60F TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL HELP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S.
DESPITE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TO GO BELOW FREEZING WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS EAST COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE RIDGES WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS OPENING UP
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVING IT FASTER EAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEP
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL BE TRENDING TO THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FORECAST.
THIS MOVES THE 500 MB RIDGE OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AND DIG A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTING GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND +12.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY PROLONG THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOLD CLOUDS IN
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH CAUSING CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH
MVFR TO IFR/LIFR ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. APPEARS AREAS TO
THE WEST WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE/LOWER BUT EXPECTING OVERALL VFR
AT KBLF/KLWB UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE LOWER CIGS ARRIVE.
SHOULD ALSO SEE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AROUND KDAN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE FROM KBCB/KROA EAST BY DAWN AS THE
WEDGE ENHANCES. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES MORE QUESTIONABLE...BUT
EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP IN -RA/-DZ/BR OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE WEDGE MAY HOLD IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING SUNDAY
WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF MVFR TO VFR AT KBLF/KLWB WHERE WILL BE ON
THE PERIMETER OF THE WEDGE. THIS IN THE WAKE OF EXITING -RA WITH
AN INITIAL PASSING MORNING SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS/FOG
LIKELY HANGING TOUGH GIVEN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COOL
POOL.
AN UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING
THE EVENING. THUS PLAN TO SLOWLY TRANSITION GOING STRATIFORM -DZ
OVER TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE DURING THE EVENING BUT WITHOUT
THUNDER MENTION ATTM.
WINDS MOSTLY ESE-NE OVERNIGHT 5-7KTS...BECOMING ESE-SE 7-9KTS
SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND
KBLF DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE DELAYED EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WEST VA WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PC
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...JH/PC/RAB
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Wet weather will return to the Inland Northwest today with
widespread rain and snow this morning transitioning to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. The threat of
showers will persist into tonight and Monday with snow levels
possibly lowering to the valley floors. Drier weather returns to
the region on Tuesday and persists into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...A fairly wet period awaits the Inland NW due
to the passage of a robust cold front followed by a prolonged
threat of showers due to the approach of a upper level cold pool.
The weather this morning will generally revolve around a
precipitation shield forming along and ahead of the aforementioned
cold front. The latest radar mosaic shows a fairly broad shield of
precipitation associated with the approaching cold front
stretching from the north Cascades toward Walla Walla. This
precipitation will continue to move slowly northeast as the upper
level shortwave heading toward the north Oregon Coast continues to
dig southward. This digging of the shortwave should slow the
approach of the front once it moves into NE Washington and the
north Idaho Panhandle. This could also enhance the amount of
precipitation expected due to a prolonged residence time.
Precipitation amounts from this front could range from 0.10-0.30
inches as the front heads northeast this morning. Snow levels will generally
range from 3000-4000 feet however based on current observations we
could see snow locally down to 2000-2500 feet early this morning
near the Canadian border. Accumulations in the valleys should not
be appreciable however most of the passes including Sherman,
Lookout, and those near the Cascades, will receive light to
moderate amounts this morning.
The front is expected to head into Montana by afternoon, with a
rapid end to the precipitation threat this morning in the lee of
the Cascades. However round two of the precipitation should fire
rather rapidly as the upper level trough moves into the region
with 500 mb temps plunging to -30c or colder. This will result in
a rapid destabilization of the atmosphere and numerous showers,
especially over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Model soundings depict deep instability and also the
potential for some isolated thunderstorms. The greatest chances
for thunder will occur over NE Washington and the northern Idaho
Panhandle. The passing front will also bring increasing winds
across the Basin, Palouse, Blue Mountains, and Spokane area by
this afternoon. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible.
For tonight...the base of the upper low will continue to dig
southward, however this leaves the northern end of the trough
fixed somewhere over NE Washington or N Idaho. This suggests we
could see a stalled deformation band of precipitation setting up
somewhere in this area. We suspect this should keep the threat of
showers going through much of the night if not into Monday
morning. This may produce a small area of moderate precipitation,
most likely somewhere north and east of a line from Republic to
Deer Park. Precipitation amounts could range from 0.25-0.50 inches
with the possibility of snow levels dropping to 2000 feet
suggesting the possibility of valley snow for locations such as
Northport, Porthill, Bonners Ferry, and Ione. Whether or not the
snow can accumulate on anything other than grassy surface is not
certain so winter highlights will not be issued. Over the
mountains snow accumulations will be much easier
By Monday the upper level low will finally begin to track to the
south and east of the area as the northerly upper level jet pokes
into the Cascades. Upper level forcing will become significantly
weaker. Consequently the threat of showers will begin to slowly
wane especially near the Cascades where the atmosphere will begin
to stabilize. However there are signs that the deformation band
near the Canadian border will pivot to more of a north-south
orientation which should prolong the shower threat over extreme
eastern Washington and across much of the Panhandle. fx
Monday night through Saturday...the low pressure area responsible for
the unsettled interval of weather towards the end of the weekend
continues to move south but minor smaller scale disturbances
rotating around the edges of the low along with other disturbances
dropping down south along the east edge of the ridge axis that is
building off the coast allows for minor pops for light convective
shower activity Monday night that decreases into Tuesday. Tuesday
night on through Saturday the offshore ridge remains in place and
keeps a dry and benign northerly flow over Eastern Washington and
Northern Washington that results in a generally dry forecast with
a slight warming trend. A minor issue to note would be the weak
cold front passage late Tuesday and Tuesday night which will bring
low end breezy northerly winds with gusts in the 30 mph range,
with these highest gusts in the north to south oriented valleys of
the Okanogan Valley and the Purcell Trench. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist front will push in tonight into Sunday morning,
lowering cigs and increasing rain chances. Periods of MVFR
ceilings will be possible. Some LLWS is possible early Sunday in
the LLJ ahead of the front and before the better mixing develops.
The EAT/PUW will have the best risk of LLWS. The front shifts
east Sunday morning and post frontal convective showers will begin
and linger into the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible by then as well. The better risk at this time appears
north of the TAF sites but this will be monitored. Also expect an
increase in winds with gusts near 20-30kts in the afternoon,
especially in unsheltered TAF sites. Conditions improve late
Sunday afternoon/evening. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 48 33 47 33 54 34 / 100 50 40 20 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 47 32 46 32 54 32 / 100 50 40 30 10 0
Pullman 46 31 44 32 53 32 / 90 40 40 20 10 10
Lewiston 53 34 49 34 58 35 / 80 20 20 20 10 10
Colville 47 33 53 32 58 33 / 100 70 30 20 10 0
Sandpoint 44 34 46 32 51 31 / 100 80 60 40 10 0
Kellogg 43 31 42 31 49 31 / 100 60 50 30 20 10
Moses Lake 58 34 57 34 62 36 / 20 10 20 20 10 10
Wenatchee 56 36 56 37 61 38 / 20 10 10 10 0 10
Omak 53 34 56 34 59 35 / 30 10 20 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SAT MAR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The next weather system tracks into the region tonight and into
Sunday bringing rain and mountain snow. Showers will linger into
Monday. Winds will be gusty from the west Sunday then from the
north on Tuesday. Drier weather returns Tuesday and lingers into
next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: tracking showers on the move over the west side of
the Cascades, coming toward southwest Chelan county at this hour.
This is part of the dynamic system moving onto the coast, which
will spread precipitation in from the west overnight into Sunday
morning. I increased the timing of the precipitation slightly,
bringing some likely PoPs across portions of the upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane, Whitman county area toward 10Z (about 3 AM). This
was based on the Hi-Res NAM and HRRR timing. This is about 2 hours
quicker than the previous forecast. The remainder of the forecast
remains the same.
Based on current temperatures, both dry and wet-bulb, across the
region I left snow levels alone. This means the main snow risk
will be above 2.5-4.5kft, lowest toward the northern reached of
Ferry through Boundary county. So some snow impacts are possible
through the mountain passes and higher northern valleys. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist front will push in tonight into Sunday morning,
lowering cigs and increasing rain chances. Periods of MVFR
ceilings will be possible. Some LLWS is possible early Sunday in
the LLJ ahead of the front and before the better mixing develops.
The EAT/PUW will have the best risk of LLWS. The front shifts
east Sunday morning and post frontal convective showers will begin
and linger into the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible by then as well. The better risk at this time appears
north of the TAF sites but this will be monitored. Also expect an
increase in winds with gusts near 20-30kts in the afternoon,
especially in unsheltered TAF sites. Conditions improve late
Sunday afternoon/evening. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 49 32 47 33 54 / 60 100 50 40 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 34 47 32 46 32 54 / 20 100 40 40 30 10
Pullman 37 47 32 44 32 53 / 50 100 30 40 20 10
Lewiston 39 54 34 51 34 58 / 20 70 20 30 20 10
Colville 33 51 33 53 32 58 / 40 100 50 40 20 10
Sandpoint 32 45 32 46 32 51 / 20 100 50 40 40 10
Kellogg 32 43 31 42 31 49 / 10 100 50 40 30 20
Moses Lake 40 57 33 56 34 62 / 40 20 10 20 20 10
Wenatchee 39 54 35 55 37 61 / 60 20 10 20 10 0
Omak 38 54 33 55 34 59 / 60 50 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LA CROSSE WI
715 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MONITORING THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF
WEAK-MODERATE 600-800MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS EXTENDS
FROM SWRN MN INTO NC WI PER RAP GUIDANCE...AND MATCHES RADAR
WELL...NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN SC MN AT 07Z. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD GREEN BAY TODAY PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE AND ALLOW THE DEFORMATION FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO CONTINUE. RAP HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF
THIS FORCING IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SO...THERE MAYBE BE A BREAK THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
REDEVELOP. IN ANY CASE...WILL SLOWLY PULL RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-DAY FROM A DODGE COUNTY MN TO CLARK COUNTY WI LINE
AND NORTH ANS SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT.
FRONTOGENESIS RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN
WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ALONG A SW-NE LINE
PASSING THROUGH KDBQ. SHOULD SEE A NEWRD EXPANSE TO THE NARROW
PRECIPITATION BAND NOW NEAR KANSAS CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY IN FAR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS WEATHER WILL BE SE OF THE AREA.
WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...MOIST SOILS...ABOUT
2 KM OF LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...HAVE ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE FOR LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF A MAJOR OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS A WELL AGREED UPON
FEATURE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL CAUSE SOME TROUBLE
IN PREDICTABILITY MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON...DETAILS VARY ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AND WARMS/MOISTENS
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THUS...IT COULD BE A
FAIRLY WET PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WARM AND COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE PLACED DIFFERENTLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS... IS IN THE REGION IN THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...
AND THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON. BOTTOM LINE IS A WET PERIOD THERE
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.
TOO EARLY TO TELL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAP
STRENGTH/CLOUDS...WOULD CHARACTERIZE SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
QUITE MINIMAL NOW. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIT BIGGER THREAT BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN AND SYNOPTICS EVOLVE. 27.00Z GEFS MEAN
QPF IN THE AREA IS AROUND AN INCH.
SPREAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRETTY HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO 1SM OR LESS DUE TO
MIST/FOG LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KRST THROUGH AT LEAST 27.15Z WITH
STRATUS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1000 FT AGL UNTIL AFTER
27.18Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME REDUCTION TO AROUND 5SM IN
MIST WILL BE THE RULE AT KLSE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ONLY
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON LOW CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK-UP WITH AN EVENTUAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LET LATER FORECASTS ADDRESS
THIS POTENTIAL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING...MAINTAINING THAT DIRECTIONAL
PREFERENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
635 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
OVERNIGHT...RAIN OR DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH... WITH
A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS VILAS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE
COOL SPOT WAS MANITOWOC AT 32 WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT
ARRIVED. COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS
SCENARIO TODAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ACROSS VILAS COUNTY DUE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE MODELS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE RAIN WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS GREEN
BAY AND APPLETON. PER COORDINATION WITH NWS MILWAUKEE...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
NATURE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
FELT PRETTY CONFIDENT ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE 06Z
WRF MODEL SHOVED EAST BY 50 MILES AND WOULD ONLY CLIP MANITOWOC
AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES. WILL STAY THE COURSE NOW AND PASS ON TO
THE DAY SHIFT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO THE SOUTH WOULD LINE UP
THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE USING THE
OLD FASHION EYE BALL METHOD. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY 00Z TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ON THE DAY
SHIFT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. PER GFS MODEL...COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. DID NOT
INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. MODELS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED. COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH A
MIX OR SNOW IN THE NORTH. IS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...A
COOLING TREND WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTH OF A KTKV TO KIMT LINE. LOW
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO ARRIVE SOUTH OF THE KTKV TO KIMT...ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF KMNM TO KOSH
LINE...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. FOR THE FOLLOWING
AIRPORTS...KGRB...KOSH...KSUE...KATW...KMTW SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
BAND OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THE RAIN WILL END...AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE FOR KATW...KGRB AND KMTW. LATEST HRRR MODEL WOULD
SUGGEST IT WOULD LAST LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE KCWA
AND KRHI TAFS BETWEEN 08-12Z. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15-16Z.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MONITORING THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF
WEAK-MODERATE 600-800MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS EXTENDS
FROM SWRN MN INTO NC WI PER RAP GUIDANCE...AND MATCHES RADAR
WELL...NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN SC MN AT 07Z. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD GREEN BAY TODAY PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE AND ALLOW THE DEFORMATION FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO CONTINUE. RAP HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF
THIS FORCING IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SO...THERE MAYBE BE A BREAK THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
REDEVELOP. IN ANY CASE...WILL SLOWLY PULL RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-DAY FROM A DODGE COUNTY MN TO CLARK COUNTY WI LINE
AND NORTH ANS SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT.
FRONTOGENESIS RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN
WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ALONG A SW-NE LINE
PASSING THROUGH KDBQ. SHOULD SEE A NEWRD EXPANSE TO THE NARROW
PRECIPITATION BAND NOW NEAR KANSAS CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY IN FAR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS WEATHER WILL BE SE OF THE AREA.
WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...MOIST SOILS...ABOUT
2 KM OF LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...HAVE ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE FOR LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF A MAJOR OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS A WELL AGREED UPON
FEATURE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL CAUSE SOME TROUBLE
IN PREDICTABILITY MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON...DETAILS VARY ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AND WARMS/MOISTENS
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THUS...IT COULD BE A
FAIRLY WET PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WARM AND COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE PLACED DIFFERENTLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS... IS IN THE REGION IN THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...
AND THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON. BOTTOM LINE IS A WET PERIOD THERE
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.
TOO EARLY TO TELL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAP
STRENGTH/CLOUDS...WOULD CHARACTERIZE SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
QUITE MINIMAL NOW. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIT BIGGER THREAT BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN AND SYNOPTICS EVOLVE. 27.00Z GEFS MEAN
QPF IN THE AREA IS AROUND AN INCH.
SPREAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRETTY HIGH. I THINK THE TAKE AWAY FOR
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO 1SM OR LESS DUE TO
MIST/FOG LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KRST THROUGH AT LEAST 27.15Z WITH
STRATUS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1000 FT AGL UNTIL AFTER
27.18Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME REDUCTION TO AROUND 5SM IN
MIST WILL BE THE RULE AT KLSE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ONLY
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON LOW CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK-UP WITH AN EVENTUAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LET LATER FORECASTS ADDRESS
THIS POTENTIAL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING...MAINTAINING THAT DIRECTIONAL
PREFERENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...ROGERS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
OVERNIGHT...RAIN OR DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH... WITH
A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS VILAS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. THE
COOL SPOT WAS MANITOWOC AT 32 WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT
ARRIVED. COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS
SCENARIO TODAY. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ACROSS VILAS COUNTY DUE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE MODELS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE RAIN WOULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS GREEN
BAY AND APPLETON. PER COORDINATION WITH NWS MILWAUKEE...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
NATURE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
FELT PRETTY CONFIDENT ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE 06Z
WRF MODEL SHOVED EAST BY 50 MILES AND WOULD ONLY CLIP MANITOWOC
AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES. WILL STAY THE COURSE NOW AND PASS ON TO
THE DAY SHIFT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO THE SOUTH WOULD LINE UP
THE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE USING THE
OLD FASHION EYE BALL METHOD. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY 00Z TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ON THE DAY
SHIFT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. PER GFS MODEL...COULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. DID NOT
INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. MODELS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED. COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH A
MIX OR SNOW IN THE NORTH. IS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...A
COOLING TREND WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER AND WINDS
DECREASE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
MONITORING THE LIGHT RAIN BAND MOVING NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF
WEAK-MODERATE 600-800MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS. THIS EXTENDS
FROM SWRN MN INTO NC WI PER RAP GUIDANCE...AND MATCHES RADAR
WELL...NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN SC MN AT 07Z. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD GREEN BAY TODAY PER LATEST RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE AND ALLOW THE DEFORMATION FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO CONTINUE. RAP HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF
THIS FORCING IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
SO...THERE MAYBE BE A BREAK THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
REDEVELOP. IN ANY CASE...WILL SLOWLY PULL RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-DAY FROM A DODGE COUNTY MN TO CLARK COUNTY WI LINE
AND NORTH ANS SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT.
FRONTOGENESIS RAMPS UP FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN
WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ALONG A SW-NE LINE
PASSING THROUGH KDBQ. SHOULD SEE A NEWRD EXPANSE TO THE NARROW
PRECIPITATION BAND NOW NEAR KANSAS CITY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY IN FAR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE SYSTEMS WEATHER WILL BE SE OF THE AREA.
WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...MOIST SOILS...ABOUT
2 KM OF LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...HAVE ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE FOR LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016
PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF A MAJOR OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS A WELL AGREED UPON
FEATURE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL CAUSE SOME TROUBLE
IN PREDICTABILITY MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON...DETAILS VARY ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AND WARMS/MOISTENS
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THUS...IT COULD BE A
FAIRLY WET PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WARM AND COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE PLACED DIFFERENTLY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS... IS IN THE REGION IN THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...
AND THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON. BOTTOM LINE IS A WET PERIOD THERE
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.
TOO EARLY TO TELL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAP
STRENGTH/CLOUDS...WOULD CHARACTERIZE SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
QUITE MINIMAL NOW. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIT BIGGER THREAT BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN AND SYNOPTICS EVOLVE. 27.00Z GEFS MEAN
QPF IN THE AREA IS AROUND AN INCH.
SPREAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRETTY HIGH. I THINK THE TAKE AWAY FOR
LATE WEEK IS A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER...PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016
SHOWERS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AT LATE EVENING...BUT
SHORTWAVE WAS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS NORTHEAST...AND MESO MODELS TREND
TOWARD LIFTING THE -SHRA NORTH OF KRST/KLSE BY 06Z OR SO. LOWER CIGS
WILL MOVE IN AS THE LOW APPROACHES IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOME BR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING...
MOSTLY KRST. THE LOW CIGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUALLY DIURNAL BUMP UP. LOOKING FOR CLEARING NEAR
00Z MON FOR KRST...CLOSER TO 03Z FOR KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
246 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS KEEPING A SMALL THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN NICELY BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEVADA WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
EXTENDING BACK TO THE SIERRA. FOR TODAY, SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AND
SMALL IMPULSES WORK AROUND THE MAIN LOW. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE
LOW IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND THEN SHIFT THE CENTER EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS PROJECTED TO
BUILD IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS TODAY, THE WARM UP WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AFTER
SATURDAY AS THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKENING TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR
A STRONGER RIDGE WITH ANY SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH.
EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
AREAS UNTIL 05Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
221 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over Eastern Nevada will continue to bring a few
showers today and Wednesday. The low moves east by the end of the
week with high pressure building in and lasting into the weekend.
A return to dry conditions and above average temperatures is
expected by Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The upper low now over Eastern Nevada will move little today and
keep plenty of clouds around. A few showers are possible,
especially east of highway 95 closer to the low. The GFS and NAM
differ though as to if there will be any sort of weak
wraparound/warm air advection snow moving into Western Nevada. The
GFS has it, although it is very weak, while the NAM doesn`t. The
NAM seems to have a slightly better handle on it and keeps it east
of highway 95 at worst. The latest HRRR also supports this idea so
cut back on pops a little for Mono and Western Mineral Counties.
Temperatures will remain quite cool today and feel even colder
with a brisk north to northeast wind.
The low then weakens and moves southeast Wednesday with a further
reduction in showers, mainly isolated south of highway 50. By
Thursday, the low is far enough away with a high amplitude ridge
off the coast and light north flow over the Sierra and Western
Nevada. Dry conditions are expected on Thursday with temperatures
warming back to near average with winds also weakening. Wallmann
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
High pressure will prevail over the weekend which will result in
dry and mild weather. A weak shortwave may brush the area to the
north Saturday for a slight chance of showers north of Susanville
and Gerlach. Temperatures will climb to around 60 in Sierra
Valleys and around 70 for lower western NV valleys.
For early next week, models continue to diverge with some showing
another cold low dropping southward into the region while others
have only a progressive system brushing by to the north. The 00z
deterministic GFS is one of the colder and wetter solutions, but
looking at its ensemble suite, there is sufficient spread to keep
confidence at low. So there were no changes made beyond Sunday.
Hohmann
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low will continue to bring a brisk north to northeast flow
and isold-sct snow showers today and early tonight. Coverage of
showers is expected to be best south of I-80 with brief periods of
MVFR CIGS/VSBY. The probability of accumulating snow is low.
Shower coverage will decrease and shift farther south on
Wednesday. Gusty north flow aloft may result in some localized
light-moderate turbulence downwind of mountain ranges. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
450 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...
TODAY...A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH TAIL END SETTLING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
DOWN THE PENINSULA...MAINLY INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...A
QUICK MOVING IMPULSE ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS A
GROWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING IT EVOLVING INTO AN EXPANDING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE PENINSULA.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SETTLE TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THIS MAY INCLUDE SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT. THE MOST ACTIVE LIGHTNING STORMS
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL. A FEW STORMS AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.
HAVE GONE ABOVE THE MOS POPS BASED ON THE PERSISTENT HRRR TREND
SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS RESULTED IN LIKELY VALUES SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTH LAKE COUNTY/METRO
ORLANDO/NORTH BREVARD...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 EXCEPT FOR SOME
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COAST.
TONIGHT...THE QUICK MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME SHOWERS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
TREASURE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL WASH OUT OVER THE S
PENINSULA AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
AN INTO THE W ATLC. PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TRAILING RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PWAT AIRMASS (VALUES BTWN 1.0"-1.2") TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES BLO MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WILL
KEEP A SLGT CHC FOR SHRAS IN FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE-O REGION
DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BAND. DESPITE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH H50 READINGS HOLDING ARND
-12C...THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK H85-H70 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION GENERATED BY THE TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PREVENT DEEP
CONVECTION...WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...AFTN MAXES IN THE
U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY
IN THE M60S...U60S PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THU-THU NIGHT...DEEP SHORT WAVE TROF W OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
BE REINFORCE BY A 100-120KT MERIDIONAL JET NOSING OUT OF WRN CANADA.
AS THE TROF PROGRESSES EWD...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WRN FLANK OF
THE ATLC RIDGE...GENERATING A DEEP S/SWRLY FLOW ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS SEAWARD...MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN
THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ERODE THE MID LVL DRY AIR SUFFICIENTLY TO
BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST FOR ALL COUNTIES. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT AS WELL...BUT H50 TEMPS UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX
REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH THE -10C ISOTHERM DIPPING AS FAR S AS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT READINGS ARND -11C...COLD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
SLGT CHC TSRAS AREAWIDE.
TEMPS CONTINUE WELL ABV AVG AS S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR
MAINTAINS A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABV
CLIMO...L/M80S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR REACHING
THE U80S. MIN TEMPS U60S/L70S...10-15F ABV CLIMO.
FRI-MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EWD
RETREAT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD
THE ERN SEABOARD...DRAGGING A NEW FRONTAL BNDRY INTO THE FL
PENINSULA. SWRLY H100-H70 WINDS FRI AS FRONTAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MODIFY THE DRY AIR ALOFT...PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50-1.75" BUT IN
A"TOP-DOWN" MANNER THAT WILL LEAVE THE H100-H70 ON THE DRY SIDE.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS LINGERING DRY AIR WILL MODIFY AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PD OF PRECIP
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU 00Z SUN WRT WITH THE PROGRESS OF
THE FRONTAL BNDRY...BUT THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THE PARENT LOW OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHES ACRS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THRU 12Z MON...ECMWF GENERATES A 963MB CENTRAL
LOW WHILE GFS INDICATES 975MB. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE EXTRA TORQUE
GENERATED BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION CRANKS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FL
STRAITS BY 12Z MON...WHILE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY 12Z SUN. GFS DOES EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT THRU THE
PENINSULA...BUT REQUIRES A SECONDARY LOW TO DVLP ALONG THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BNDRY IN ORDER TO DO SO.
THESE SIGNIFICANT SOLUTION DIFFERENCES RESULT IN A WIDE SPREAD OF
MOS POPS BY MON NEXT WEEK...ECMWF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...GFS IN THE
40-50PCT RANGE. GIVEN THE LATEST FRONTAL BNDRY HAS STALLED OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL
KEEP POPS BLO 50PCT. TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN COOL ENOUGH (AOB -9C) TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF TSRAS IN THE FCST EACH DAY.
PREVAILING WRLY WIND THRU SAT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...MAXES IN
THE U70S/M80S...MINS TEMPS IN THE M/U60S FRI...COOLING INTO THE
U50S/L60S N OF I-4 SAT AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR SUN/MON WILL RETURN READINGS TO NEAR
CLIMO AVGS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD FROM KMLB-
KMCO-KISM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SETTLE TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY EVENING. THOUGH SLIGHT DRYING WILL WORK DOWN THE
PENINSULA...A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY SOUTH OF ABOUT KMCO-KTIX WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LOOK IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE KISM-KMCO-KTIX- KSFB-KLEE AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE KDAB.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH
OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. A FEW COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS. BY LATE TONIGHT...CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WED-WED NIGHT...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH
ERLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. SLGT CHC OF SHRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
THU-THU NIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS
SEAWARD...ALLOWING A NEW FRONTAL TROF TO PRESS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH/NE GOMEX. MODERATE TO FRESH SERLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY BCMG S
AFT SUNSET. SEAS SOMEWHAT FETCH PROTECTED DUE TO THE BAHAMA SHADOW
RESULTING FROM THE S/SE FLOW...STILL ANTICIPATE 4-5FT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT SEAS OFFSHORE...UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM. CHC TSRAS N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET...SLGT CHC TSRAS S OF THE INLET.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS AS THE FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO THE
NRN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE AT DAYBREAK...BCMG A
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE BY LATE AFTN...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
S/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT. NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5FT THRU THE DAY SUBSIDING
TO 3-4FT OVERNIGHT...OFFSHORE SEAS 4-6FT THRU THE DAY SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT OVERNIGHT. CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AS IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE THRU
LATE AFTN...BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
BY SUNSET. NRLY SURGE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN WITH WINDS BCMG A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NRLY BREEZE FROM VERO BEACH NWD. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 64 78 66 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 80 64 85 66 / 50 20 0 10
MLB 80 68 81 69 / 60 20 10 10
VRB 80 67 81 67 / 60 30 10 10
LEE 79 62 85 65 / 40 20 0 10
SFB 78 63 84 65 / 40 20 0 10
ORL 80 65 85 66 / 50 20 0 10
FPR 79 68 82 67 / 60 30 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...
TODAY...A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH TAIL END SETTLING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
DOWN THE PENINSULA...MAINLY INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...A
QUICK MOVING IMPULSE ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS A
GROWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING IT EVOLVING INTO AN EXPANDING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE PENINSULA.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SETTLE TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THIS MAY INCLUDE SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT. THE MOST ACTIVE LIGHTNING STORMS
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL. A FEW STORMS AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.
HAVE GONE ABOVE THE MOS POPS BASED ON THE PERSISTENT HRRR TREND
SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS RESULTED IN LIKELY VALUES SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTH LAKE COUNTY/METRO
ORLANDO/NORTH BREVARD...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 EXCEPT FOR SOME
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COAST.
TONIGHT...THE QUICK MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME SHOWERS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
TREASURE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL WASH OUT OVER THE S
PENINSULA AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
AN INTO THE W ATLC. PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TRAILING RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PWAT AIRMASS (VALUES BTWN 1.0"-1.2") TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES BLO MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WILL
KEEP A SLGT CHC FOR SHRAS IN FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE-O REGION
DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BAND. DESPITE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH H50 READINGS HOLDING ARND
-12C...THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK H85-H70 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION GENERATED BY THE TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PREVENT DEEP
CONVECTION...WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA CLIMO...AFTN MAXES IN THE
U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY
IN THE M60S...U60S PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THU-THU NIGHT...DEEP SHORT WAVE TROF W OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
BE REINFORCE BY A 100-120KT MERIDIONAL JET NOSING OUT OF WRN CANADA.
AS THE TROF PROGRESSES EWD...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WRN FLANK OF
THE ATLC RIDGE...GENERATING A DEEP S/SWRLY FLOW ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS SEAWARD...MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN
THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ERODE THE MID LVL DRY AIR SUFFICIENTLY TO
BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE FCST FOR ALL COUNTIES. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT AS WELL...BUT H50 TEMPS UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX
REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH THE -10C ISOTHERM DIPPING AS FAR S AS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT READINGS ARND -11C...COLD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
SLGT CHC TSRAS AREAWIDE.
TEMPS CONTINUE WELL ABV AVG AS S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR
MAINTAINS A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABV
CLIMO...L/M80S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR REACHING
THE U80S. MIN TEMPS U60S/L70S...10-15F ABV CLIMO.
FRI-MON...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD FROM KMLB-
KMCO-KISM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SETTLE TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY EVENING. THOUGH SLIGHT DRYING WILL WORK DOWN THE
PENINSULA...A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY SOUTH OF ABOUT KMCO-KTIX WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LOOK IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE KISM-KMCO-KTIX- KSFB-KLEE AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE KDAB.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH
OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. A FEW COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS. BY LATE TONIGHT...CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WED-WED NIGHT...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A STRONG RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH
ERLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. SLGT CHC OF SHRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
THU-THU NIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS
SEAWARD...ALLOWING A NEW FRONTAL TROF TO PRESS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH/NE GOMEX. MODERATE TO FRESH SERLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY BCMG S
AFT SUNSET. SEAS SOMEWHAT FETCH PROTECTED DUE TO THE BAHAMA SHADOW
RESULTING FROM THE S/SE FLOW...STILL ANTICIPATE 4-5FT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT SEAS OFFSHORE...UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM. CHC TSRAS N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET...SLGT CHC TSRAS S OF THE INLET.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS AS THE FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO THE
NRN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE AT DAYBREAK...BCMG A
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE BY LATE AFTN...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
S/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT. NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5FT THRU THE DAY SUBSIDING
TO 3-4FT OVERNIGHT...OFFSHORE SEAS 4-6FT THRU THE DAY SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT OVERNIGHT. CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AS IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE THRU
LATE AFTN...BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
BY SUNSET. NRLY SURGE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN WITH WINDS BCMG A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NRLY BREEZE FROM VERO BEACH NWD. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 64 78 66 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 80 64 85 66 / 50 20 0 10
MLB 80 68 81 69 / 60 20 10 10
VRB 80 67 81 67 / 60 30 10 10
LEE 79 62 85 65 / 40 20 0 10
SFB 78 63 84 65 / 40 20 0 10
ORL 80 65 85 66 / 50 20 0 10
FPR 79 68 82 67 / 60 30 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
416 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN AWHILE BUT WE FINALLY HAVE A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE
NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE MID WEST STATES MEANS A TEMPORARY
REPRIEVE FROM QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS THAT SWIFT ZONAL FLOWN HAD BEEN
PROVIDING. SO FOR TODAY...IT BECOMES MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH IS MADE DIFFICULT BY RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. UNDER A
MUCH DIFFERENT SETUP WE SAW TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE SAT AND SUN
WHILE YESTERDAY WE WERE A TOUCH ABOVE. FEEL CURRENT SETUP IS MUCH
MORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS DESPITE SOME ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS REACHING THE MID 70S.
FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES...WE WILL SEE A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 4K
FT AND MIXING TO 5K FEET. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS TODAY WITH THIS MIXING PROFILE THAT DRIVES RH
VALUES TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. DURATIONS ARE
WILL BE CLOSE BUT SHOULD BE MET FOR WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. THERE IS
SOME SUBTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LATE ON WED THAT WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC
LIFT BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LATE
WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PULLS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THURSDAY. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SETTLES INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...ACTING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY WILL USHER THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...FINALLY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
CAPES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS. SPC ALREADY HAS THE PORTIONS OF THE CWA OUTLOOKED
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAY 3 /THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
CARROLLTON...TO ATLANTA...TO MACON...TO ALBANY. THE REMAINING
AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
IS IN THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE OUTLOOK ZONE FOR FRIDAY /DAY 4/. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE THUNDER MENTION FOR BOTH TIMEFRAMES WITH
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASING STRONG CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...AND THIS WORDING MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ANOMALOUS PWS ARE ALSO OF A CONCERN FOR THIS PROLONGED
PERIOD...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE AND THE BOUNDARY
BEING A PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR NOW HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE POSITIONED OVER FAR
NORTH GEORGIA FOR THURSDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WPC
FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF
SELECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN A CONSENSUS.
ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE STATE SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
OF HOW LONG THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...WITH THE GFS BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBOR GRIDS.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
NO CONCERNS AS VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NORTHEAST BY LATE
THIS MORNING... THEN BECOME MORE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 8KTS OR LESS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 45 74 60 / 0 0 0 60
ATLANTA 71 49 73 61 / 0 0 5 70
BLAIRSVILLE 66 42 66 55 / 0 0 5 80
CARTERSVILLE 70 45 74 61 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBUS 76 50 79 64 / 0 0 10 60
GAINESVILLE 68 47 70 58 / 0 0 5 70
MACON 74 47 77 61 / 0 0 0 40
ROME 69 43 75 60 / 0 0 10 80
PEACHTREE CITY 72 45 75 60 / 0 0 5 70
VIDALIA 75 49 77 63 / 0 0 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1241 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.UPDATE...
832 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER
THAN HOURLY GRID UPDATES FOR WINDS/TEMPS MATCHING LAKE BREEZE
PROGRESS INLAND EARLIER.
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN IL. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DIURNAL COOLING AFTER
SUNSET HAS ALLOWED DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCU DECK FROM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND CALM
OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. GOING
FORECAST IS AT OR A BIT BELOW COOLER MOS NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OUT AWAY FROM THE
CHICAGO METRO BY MORNING...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO TYPICAL LOW-LYING AREAS.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... BUT INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
50S IN MANY AREAS WHILE LAKESHORE AREAS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID-
40S. ALL OF THIS IS WELL HANDLED IN GOING FORECAST HOWEVER...AND
NO CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES DEALING WITH CLOUD
COVER AND LAKE BREEZE.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS...MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS.
AFTER EXPANDING WESTWARD DIURNALLY EARLIER TODAY...CLOUD COVER HAS
SINCE BEEN VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST BUT DONT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET WHEN THE COMBINATION OF
LOSING DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW
CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT. THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WILL BE LAKE BREEZE AND FALLING TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE FRONT.
WHILE RADAR IMAGERY DOESNT YET SHOW A CLEAR BOUNDARY...WINDS AT
NORTHERLY ISLAND HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH...THE LAKE BREEZE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERNIGHT...FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IN PLACE AND EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 30S THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...BUT ONLY MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE
LAKE FRONT WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOLER.
BMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ONCE AGAIN SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THINKING TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN POPS WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
FEATURE SHALLOW SATURATION...BUT DO SEE MORE IMPRESSIVE OMEGA VALUES
FROM THE MODELS TODAY. THE ONLY CAPE TO SPEAK OF IS ELEVATED...SO
THINKING WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A WAUKEGAN TO PERU LINE. THIS
REGION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD SEE
WINDS GUSTIER CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HAVE GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...BUT COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT IF THE GFS AND ITS
STRONGER LOW ARE CORRECT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF OUR WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EXPECTING THE DYING STORMS AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP ALONG THE LOWS COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WET NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. DEFINITELY COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL.
SHOWERS PUSH EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOOK A BIT SLOWER SO RAISED HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY. HAVE
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR RFD TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS NW
INDIANA. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH WEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 35-40 MPH POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THINKING THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
DRY WITH SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK DOWNRIGHT
COLD. LOWS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO FROST. SO DESPITE THE WARMER CONDITIONS LATELY...WOULD
NOT SUGGEST PLANTING ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS JUST YET.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET/DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS
HIGH PRESSURE STILL SPANS THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE LAKE
INFLUENCE LIKELY TURNING THE WINDS EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY REACHING 10KT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
326 PM CDT
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS VEER
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO 20 KT BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WEDNESDAY AS WE ARE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW OVER THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS FEATURE ENOUGH
STABILITY OVER THE LAKE TO MAKE ME THINK WE WILL NOT SEE GALES AHEAD
OF THE LOW. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE. WIND
DIRECTION WILL DIRECTLY DEPEND ON THE LOW/S PATH SO ONLY HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION THURSDAY. ALSO DECIDED TO
KEEP GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE BASED ON GUIDANCE AND A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS...POSSIBLY GALES...SATURDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1158 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Made a few minor tweaks to temperatures and potential for patchy
fog/frost overnight.
At 01z/8pm CDT, high pressure was centered between Peoria and
Bloomington. The axis of this high will drift into eastern IL
overnight. This will allow dew points to drop a few degrees in
eastern Illinois, which is where the coldest temperatures near
freezing should be. However, with very shallow moisture trapped at
and just above the surface, this same area - from about
Bloomington through Tuscola to Paris and north should see patchy
fog formation after 3-4 am. Where the patchy fog forms, spots of
slightly warmer temperatures can be expected.
Generally from Peoria-Springfield and locations to the west, a
light southeast wind flow should develop before daybreak as the
ridge axis passes to the east. This will result in somewhat
warmer temperatures from 35-38, and less of a likelihood of frost.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Quiet night expected over Central Illinois as high pressure builds
into the region. As the ridge axis slips over ILX, the winds will
be relatively light and variable before a southeasterly fetch starts
back up again towards morning. Bigger concern will be for fog
development as the cu field to the northeast has prevented deep
mixing out of the llvl moisture. Afternoon xover temps are more in
the upper 30s, with overnight lows under them. Have started with
the patchy fog in the NE... but potential is there to spread the
mention considerably for more of Central Illinois. Same low level
moisture will potentially set up for some patchy frost development
in low lying areas. Tender vegetation that has already started
in the southeast may be at risk.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Main concerns beyond the short term continue to be the weather
system for mid week. So after a brief period of dry high pressure
Tue and Tue night, pcpn begins to move back into the area Wed.
Models continue to differ on timing of when pcpn will move into the
area, with GFS and Canadian bringing in pcpn in the morning while
the NAM and ECMWF do not really bring it in until the afternoon.
With the possibility of some pcpn making it into the area as left-
over from Tue night`s pcpn, will have chance pcpn in the morning.
The chance of pcpn should continue into the afternoon as the system
and left-over boundaries continue. However, believe the main thrust
of the system/pcpn will likely be Wed night. So will keep pops in
the categorical area and have showers and thunderstorms through the
period. As the system moves east Thur, thunder chances will move
east, but showers will still be possible Thur morning. Though the
NAM shows some wrap-around type pcpn in the area, believe dry
weather should be expected for Thur afternoon.
As the 500 trough rotates through the area behind the system, a
slight chance of showers will be needed for Thur night and Friday.
Beyond this, dry weather is expected into the weekend as
northwesterly flow dominates the weather pattern.
Temps will be above normal for the next several days, but then cool
some after the next system...then over the weekend, temps will
slowly warm again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
A surface high pressure ridge extended from Lake Michigan down the
I-57 corridor in east central IL. Bands of cirrus were streaming
into central IL from the southern Plains. The main concern
overnight will be with the potential for light fog development in
parts of east central IL.
Short range models and soundings continue to indicate that
patches of fog should start forming in the 09-11z timeframe in
east and northeast IL. Will back off on the fog at BMI with a
slightly higher wind speed and more of temp/dew point spread
expected than earlier. However, will continue to go with a
predominant MVFR visibility at CMI since the Cons Short, NAM and
RAP models have all been consistent with showing patchy fog close
to that location.
Any fog that forms in eastern IL will be short lived, with
dissipation expected by 14z as east-southeast winds increase in
the wake of the ridge. Lack of low level moisture during the day
Tuesday will result in only scattered high clouds through the
evening hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
858 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Made a few minor tweaks to temperatures and potential for patchy
fog/frost overnight.
At 01z/8pm CDT, high pressure was centered between Peoria and
Bloomington. The axis of this high will drift into eastern IL
overnight. This will allow dew points to drop a few degrees in
eastern Illinois, which is where the coldest temperatures near
freezing should be. However, with very shallow moisture trapped at
and just above the surface, this same area - from about
Bloomington through Tuscola to Paris and north should see patchy
fog formation after 3-4 am. Where the patchy fog forms, spots of
slightly warmer temperatures can be expected.
Generally from Peoria-Springfield and locations to the west, a
light southeast wind flow should develop before daybreak as the
ridge axis passes to the east. This will result in somewhat
warmer temperatures from 35-38, and less of a likelihood of frost.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Quiet night expected over Central Illinois as high pressure builds
into the region. As the ridge axis slips over ILX, the winds will
be relatively light and variable before a southeasterly fetch starts
back up again towards morning. Bigger concern will be for fog
development as the cu field to the northeast has prevented deep
mixing out of the llvl moisture. Afternoon xover temps are more in
the upper 30s, with overnight lows under them. Have started with
the patchy fog in the NE... but potential is there to spread the
mention considerably for more of Central Illinois. Same low level
moisture will potentially set up for some patchy frost development
in low lying areas. Tender vegetation that has already started
in the southeast may be at risk.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Main concerns beyond the short term continue to be the weather
system for mid week. So after a brief period of dry high pressure
Tue and Tue night, pcpn begins to move back into the area Wed.
Models continue to differ on timing of when pcpn will move into the
area, with GFS and Canadian bringing in pcpn in the morning while
the NAM and ECMWF do not really bring it in until the afternoon.
With the possibility of some pcpn making it into the area as left-
over from Tue night`s pcpn, will have chance pcpn in the morning.
The chance of pcpn should continue into the afternoon as the system
and left-over boundaries continue. However, believe the main thrust
of the system/pcpn will likely be Wed night. So will keep pops in
the categorical area and have showers and thunderstorms through the
period. As the system moves east Thur, thunder chances will move
east, but showers will still be possible Thur morning. Though the
NAM shows some wrap-around type pcpn in the area, believe dry
weather should be expected for Thur afternoon.
As the 500 trough rotates through the area behind the system, a
slight chance of showers will be needed for Thur night and Friday.
Beyond this, dry weather is expected into the weekend as
northwesterly flow dominates the weather pattern.
Temps will be above normal for the next several days, but then cool
some after the next system...then over the weekend, temps will
slowly warm again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016
Surface high pressure in west central Illinois will be the
prevailing feature during the TAF period across central and
eastern Illinois. Most locations have already gone to light and
variable wind with a mostly clear sky. Just a few cumulus are
lingering in eastern Illinois, with scattered cirrus approaching
western Illinois.
The main concern late tonight and toward daybreak will be for the
development of patchy fog in east central IL. Many of the short
range models show the ridge axis in this area with a bit higher
moisture trapped at and just above the surface. The HRRR and RAP
seem to be a bit too agressive with the moisture, so when the
cross over temperature is lowered a few degrees into the middle
30, it points to mainly MVFR fog at BMI and CMI. Will keep an eye
on short range model trends through the evening as there may be
pockets of IFR fog that develop in the vicinity of CMI and toward
the Indiana border.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AFFECT
THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES IN UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE.
DESPITE THIS DRY AIR MASS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
RESIDUAL SFC/NEAR SFC MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL ASSESS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR
TO DETERMINE WHETHER SOME PATHCY FOG MENTION WILL BE REQUIRED EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED
AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BE LIMITED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP THERMAL AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IN PLACE
TODAY AND ONLY A GRADUAL MODERATION OF THE COOL LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.
THE BIG DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION THAT SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH DEPARTURE OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. GOOD DECOUPLING STILL ANTICIPATED HOWEVER WHICH WILL
KEEP LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH A DAY OF FULL
INSOLATION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT MENTION WITH
THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST EVENING...TEMPS
SHOULD TAKE SHARP DROP EARLY EVENING TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
MORE SLOWLY FALLING OR STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT AND MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINS TO INCREASE DUE TO WAA ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
INITIAL CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WHEN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS
WITH CAPES AT TIMES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. ALSO...WEB BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS 8K TO 9K FEET ARE OPTIMUM FOR HAIL. SOME CAVEATS FOR
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDE EARLIER CONVECTION THAT MAY STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT AND UPSTREAM STORMS THAT MAY LIMIT MOISTURE INFLOW
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION THIS RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME VERY COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND
REACH THE FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE HAD GREAT DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE SOUTH BOUNDARY OF
THIS VERY COLD AIR. BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF BRINGING VERY COLD
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF FAVORS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THE WOULD BRING A WET SNOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. FOR NOW...MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. IT IS POSSIBLE IF THE
SOUTHERN ECMWF TRACK VERIFIES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30S
WITH WET SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
A FEW OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. WOULD SUSPECT
BASED ON RAP MOISTURE SOUNDINGS THAT THIS FOG IS VERY SHALLOW IN
NATURE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN IMPACTS AT TERMINALS. WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH THE 06Z TAFS BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY INCLUSION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST VALID WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT AS
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AFFECT
THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
GRADUAL DISSOLVE OF MOIST/CYCLONIC 925MB FLOW ALONG WITH
PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE DCVA OVER SWRN WI AND ASSOCIATED SUCCINCT DRY
SLOT TO PENETRATE NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING...COINCIDENT
WITH UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER DOWNWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH RISING
PRESSURE/HEIGHTS SFC/ALOFT. DEGREE OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH PWAT
BOTTOMING OUT IN 0.15-0.20 RANGE LATE TONIGHT TO AFFORD SIG DEGREE
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...THOUGH RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO COLD NAM
GIVEN DOWNSTREAM SHUNT OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF TO SRN ONT/LK
SUPR TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERMAL ADVECTION
REMAINS RATHER NEUTRAL INTO TUE WITH CONTINUED VEERING/LIGHT FLOW
WITH SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED OVERHEAD...STRONG LATE MARCH
INSOLATION SUPPORTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES AND CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO PRIOR AND WELL INLINE WITH HONED MOS SCATTER.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP TIMING/AMOUNTS WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY EJECTS
NORTHEAST. VERY GOOD MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COUPLED 120+ KT UPPER JET STREAKS AND GOOD MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT
FALLS. STRENGTHENING LLJ (TO AROUND 60 KTS) WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ADVECT POTENT THETA-E RIDGE INTO OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR WEST
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL THETA-E SURGE BUT SUSPECT
MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MAIN VORT MAX SWINGS THROUGH. PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT BEST DYNAMICS BYPASS US TO THE
NORTH. THIS COUPLED WITH PRECIP LARGELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE MEAN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS IN CHECK. DID ADD CHANCE THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN OUR EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OTHER STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. TIGHT GRADIENT
SOUTH OF 980MB LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS BUT QUESTION WILL BE
MIXING DEPTHS. GFS SUGGESTS STRONG DESCENT/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TO MIX INTO 50 KT
WINDS. THIS IS LIKELY A TAD OVERDONE LOOKING AT THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BUT NONETHELESS WILL BE BREEZY AND WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY.
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR LONG TERM IS ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -8C AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 50S. ALSO A FEW VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY BUT KEPT REST OF THE WEEKEND DRY GIVEN
LIMITED SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
A FEW OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. WOULD SUSPECT
BASED ON RAP MOISTURE SOUNDINGS THAT THIS FOG IS VERY SHALLOW IN
NATURE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN IMPACTS AT TERMINALS. WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH THE 06Z TAFS BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY INCLUSION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST VALID WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT AS
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
Early this morning a deep upper low was located over NV and will
slowly dig east-southeast into the four corners area Tonight. A
downstream upper level ridge over the plains will move east to the
mid and lower MS river valley Tonight.
As a 60 KT H5 jet max lifts northeast across the central Rockies a
lee surface trough across the central and southern high plains will
deepen through the day. As a result of the increasing surface
pressure gradient across central KS, southeasterly surface winds
will increase across the CWA to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 to 40
MPH. The strongest winds will be across north central KS where
sustained winds may approach 30 MPH this afternoon with some gusts
to 40 MPH.
Weak isentropic lift at the 300 theta level may cause a few showers
across north central KS this morning. An elevated mixed layer at 730
MB will over spread eastern KS, thus the CAP should really increase
through the day. I don`t really see to much in the way of elevated
thunderstorms with the strong CAP in place. Later Tonight the LLJ
will increase and deeper gulf moisture will be advected northward
into central KS, so there may be enough lift for isolated elevated
thunderstorms late tonight and through the early morning hours of
Wednesday. MUCAPEs are forecasted to remain less that 500 J/KG, so I
do not expect any severe hail Tonight with any elevated thunderstorm
that develops.
Southeasterly surface winds and mid level clouds will keep
temperatures in the 60s. The warmest highs will be across the far
eastern counties of the CWA due to more insolation, which may help
to warm temperatures into the upper 60s. The western counties will
only reach the lower to mid 60s with more cloud cover.
There will be a very high fire danger for northeast and east central
KS due to minimum RHs around 30 percent and afternoon wind gusts of
30 to 35 MPH. North central KS should see higher humidity in the 40
to 45 percent range and most areas will only see a high fired
danger. However, southeast winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 40
MPH will make any outdoor burning difficult.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
Period starts with a deep lee surface low over western Nebraska,
with the main upper level shortwave trough centered over the Central
Great Basin. This surface low will begin to move east during the
day Wednesday bringing a dryline through northeast Kansas. Models
still vary slightly on the timing of this features with the GFS
being the slightly faster model with a deeper surface low allowing
for a more northward extent of the dryline. Skies will start out
overcast and low in the morning, with mixing helping to break up
cloud cover by the afternoon. CAPE values range from 1000-2000 J/kg
depending on the model, with 0-6 km bulk shear values consistently
over 40 kts. Low level values of shear and helicity in the eastern
half of the CWA are also quite impressive, indicating the
possibility for all hazards to be present with any surface based
storms. Timing wise, the greatest likelihood for any strong storms
would be late afternoon into the evening hours initiating along the
dry line. Storms will likely begin discrete before transitioning
into a line, with the greatest potential for storms to form east of
Herington to Junction City to Hanover line. With timing issues
between some models, the times and exact locations mentioned may be
altered as the system evolves.
Rain chances continues overnight Thursday as the surface low moves
northeast wraps around this system. NW winds lead to cold air
advection Thursday morning, although mostly sunny skies and diurnal
heating will allow highs to reach the upper 50s to low 60s. Another
shortwave in the main trough axis will lead to rain chances near the
Kansas/Nebraska boarder Thursday night. From Friday onward, dry
conditions and a warming trend will be seen.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
The RAP and HRRR have been consistent in keeping any elevated
storms Tues morning to the west of MHK. Because of this, have
already removed the VCTS and think storms are unlikely to impact
the terminals through 06Z Wed due to a capping inversion progged
by the forecast soundings and only weak forcing anticipated. I
have added some LLWS at TOP and MHK as the RAP and NAM forecast
soundings show 30KT at the top of the inversion while surface
winds have backed to the east. As long as FOE maintains a decent
surface wind, think LLWS will be a low probability of occurring.
Operational and MOS guidance show VFR conditions prevailing with a
mid deck around 5KFT moving in through the day Tuesday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1114 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Strong upper low was noted digging south over eastern California,
with an embedded wave ejecting eastward towards the desert
southwest. Lee trough ahead of the system has created gusty south to
southeast winds this afternoon at 12 to 15 mph
sustained...occasionally gusting to 30 mph for the next few hours.
This in turn has mixed down dewpoints with RH values near the 20
percent range over portions of north central Kansas. Since these
conditions are marginal with some increasing green coverage, have
decided to keep the mention of very high fire danger through the
afternoon hours.
Southerly winds at the sfc weaken this evening as southwesterly flow
increases moisture and isentropic lift aloft in advance of the
incoming sfc low on Tuesday. High clouds increase west to east
alleviating lows tonight to the 40s. Decent chance for precip
Tuesday is centered over an area of broad, weak forcing near a warm
front over southern Nebraska. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible through late afternoon, mainly areas
north of Interstate 70, close to the NE border. MUCAPE is pretty
weak below 500 J/KG and shear is marginal for any severe weather to
occur. In terms of temps, trended cooler than previous forecast
given the thicker/lower stratus over north central KS where lower
60s are likely. Upper 60s are forecast over far eastern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Tuesday night through Thursday...Overnight lows into Tuesday night
stay up into the 50s as the next upper trof is on approach from the
west. Isentropic lift still producing some weak QPF in the models,
and could be just enough instability for a rumble of thunder
depending on how much moisture makes it northward as precip starts
mainly after midnight. Just have some slight chances west of
Manhattan. This area of clouds and possible precip moves eastward
in the morning hours.
Residual cloud cover could have some impact on available instability
in the warm sector, but guidance still coming out with around 1000-
1600J/kg of CAPE by mid day. Still in question is the position of
the dryline, with the NAM and EC more in line with a later arrival
and GFS faster eastward. The dryline on our western border mid
afternoon, along with 40-50kts of bulk shear, would make for severe
weather potential in the late afternoon and into the evening hours.
Devil will be in the details, such as degree of low level moisture
return and wind fields, or if the faster GFS comes to fruition. At
this point would favor afternoon and evening storm development for
our area. Precip shifts eastward through the night with another
chance for rain across the north as the front and upper low move
east.
For the extended period beginning on Friday, the upper level trough
will finally swing through but lingering precip should be limited as
lift will have transitioned into subsidence. Winds could be a
little gusty in the afternoon Friday as skies clear and good mixing
takes place. Fire danger looks to be limited with the cooler temps
however. The period is characterized by a dry atmosphere and quite
pleasant conditions. High surface pressure will park off to the
south over the Southern Plains into the Mid and Lower MS Valley
regions. This effectively closes off the return of gulf moisture.
Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging to almost a more zonal flow
regime sets up over the weekend. So, while temps gradually rise over
the period, it will only start out in the 50s on Friday and rise
into the mid 70s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
The RAP and HRRR have been consistent in keeping any elevated
storms Tues morning to the west of MHK. Because of this, have
already removed the VCTS and think storms are unlikely to impact
the terminals through 06Z Wed due to a capping inversion progged
by the forecast soundings and only weak forcing anticipated. I
have added some LLWS at TOP and MHK as the RAP and NAM forecast
soundings show 30KT at the top of the inversion while surface
winds have backed to the east. As long as FOE maintains a decent
surface wind, think LLWS will be a low probability of occurring.
Operational and MOS guidance show VFR conditions prevailing with a
mid deck around 5KFT moving in through the day Tuesday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67/Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1110 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Strong upper low was noted digging south over eastern California,
with an embedded wave ejecting eastward towards the desert
southwest. Lee trough ahead of the system has created gusty south to
southeast winds this afternoon at 12 to 15 mph
sustained...occasionally gusting to 30 mph for the next few hours.
This in turn has mixed down dewpoints with RH values near the 20
percent range over portions of north central Kansas. Since these
conditions are marginal with some increasing green coverage, have
decided to keep the mention of very high fire danger through the
afternoon hours.
Southerly winds at the sfc weaken this evening as southwesterly flow
increases moisture and isentropic lift aloft in advance of the
incoming sfc low on Tuesday. High clouds increase west to east
alleviating lows tonight to the 40s. Decent chance for precip
Tuesday is centered over an area of broad, weak forcing near a warm
front over southern Nebraska. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible through late afternoon, mainly areas
north of Interstate 70, close to the NE border. MUCAPE is pretty
weak below 500 J/KG and shear is marginal for any severe weather to
occur. In terms of temps, trended cooler than previous forecast
given the thicker/lower stratus over north central KS where lower
60s are likely. Upper 60s are forecast over far eastern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
Tuesday night through Thursday...Overnight lows into Tuesday night
stay up into the 50s as the next upper trof is on approach from the
west. Isentropic lift still producing some weak QPF in the models,
and could be just enough instability for a rumble of thunder
depending on how much moisture makes it northward as precip starts
mainly after midnight. Just have some slight chances west of
Manhattan. This area of clouds and possible precip moves eastward
in the morning hours.
Residual cloud cover could have some impact on available instability
in the warm sector, but guidance still coming out with around 1000-
1600J/kg of CAPE by mid day. Still in question is the position of
the dryline, with the NAM and EC more in line with a later arrival
and GFS faster eastward. The dryline on our western border mid
afternoon, along with 40-50kts of bulk shear, would make for severe
weather potential in the late afternoon and into the evening hours.
Devil will be in the details, such as degree of low level moisture
return and wind fields, or if the faster GFS comes to fruition. At
this point would favor afternoon and evening storm development for
our area. Precip shifts eastward through the night with another
chance for rain across the north as the front and upper low move
east.
For the extended period beginning on Friday, the upper level trough
will finally swing through but lingering precip should be limited as
lift will have transitioned into subsidence. Winds could be a
little gusty in the afternoon Friday as skies clear and good mixing
takes place. Fire danger looks to be limited with the cooler temps
however. The period is characterized by a dry atmosphere and quite
pleasant conditions. High surface pressure will park off to the
south over the Southern Plains into the Mid and Lower MS Valley
regions. This effectively closes off the return of gulf moisture.
Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging to almost a more zonal flow
regime sets up over the weekend. So, while temps gradually rise over
the period, it will only start out in the 50s on Friday and rise
into the mid 70s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
The RAP and HRRR have been consistent in keeping any elevated
storms Tues morning to the west of MHK. Because of this, have
already removed the VCTS and think storms are unlikely to impact
the terminals through 06Z Wed due to a capping inversion progged
by the forecast soundings and only weak forcing anticipated.
Operational and MOS guidance show VFR conditions prevailing with
a mid deck around 5KFT moving in through the day Tuesday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67/Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
343 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA
WILL PUSH EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE THE STORY GOING THROUGH TODAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM ENCROACH ON THE GREAT LAKES. RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WHICH
WILL PULL IN WARMER AIR ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALONG THE WARM FRONT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. ACTIVE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. SYSTEM IS
POSITIONED IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND CAN EXPECT THAT TIMING TO BE ADJUSTED
AS LATER MODEL RUNS COME IN. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE 00Z AND
06Z THURSDAY PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START TO BRING IN COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S AS OPPOSED TO
THE 60S THE COUPLE OF DAYS PRIOR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE REGION. MAIN STORY FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPS FILTERING DOWN FROM CANADA AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL DROP
850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -15C BY SUNDAY. BESIDES THE COLDER
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
STABILITY WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SHOWERS
BECOME LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN MODEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 109 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
DESPITE THE RAPID CLEARING TREND IN THE SATELLITE HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS....VFR STATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE
AREA. THIS LATER TIMING HAD SUPPORT IN THE RAP OUTPUT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A NIGHT WITH SKC AND A LIGHT NW WIND. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPING
TUESDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT QUICKLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF SKC IS EXPECTED FOR LATER
TUESDAY.
FOR DTW...LOW VFR CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT...STILL
SHOULD OVER THE NEXT HOUR.A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* OUTSIDE OF FIRST HOUR IN THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
CIG BELOW 5000 FT AGL.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
AVIATION.....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF EXTENDING FM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM NRN PLAINS
SPILLING INTO WRN AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. INTERIOR MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE THUS FAR LOWERED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TODAY...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES
EXITING TO THE E IS FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS UP TO 2-3C IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S/POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60F OVER THE FAR
W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS TROF
AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING FM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD
NRN ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 295K SFC...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHCS OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
FOCUS IS ON MID WEEK STORM...BUT MAINLY IN THE LATE WED THROUGH THU
TIME FRAME WHEN PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
BOTH.
COULD WRITE A NOVEL ON ALL THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUMMARIZE GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES AND
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED AND LITTLE TO INDICATE ANY ONE MODEL MAY BE
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT MOVES SE OF THE CWA. HIGHLY COMPLEX SET UP
WITH MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY THAT WILL DECIDE ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK/STRENGTH AND THERMAL FIELDS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW
THE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT AND HOW MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR. OF
CERTAINTY IS RAIN AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER FOR THE CWA ON WED...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY COMING IN LATE WED AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS TEND TO FALL INTO TWO CAMPS. THE
GFS AND GLOBAL GEM ARE FARTHER NW AND WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AND
NAM...AND ALSO FARTHER NW THAN THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THESE MODELS
RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND HAVE THE MOST SNOW OVER THE FAR W/NW
CWA...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION BAND
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY SHOWN OVER THE
W/NW TIER OF COUNTIES. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN THE OTHER CAMP WHICH
IS FARTHER SE AND COLDER THAN THE GFS (AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO)...SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA. UPDATE WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF...THE LATEST RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW TOWARD THE GFS...SO
WILL USE MAINLY A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WITH SOME GEM AND NAM THROWN IN
AS WELL. RESULTING FORECAST IS FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NW TO
SE STARTING LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. BEST
SNOWFALL OCCURS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH THE
FORECAST NOW HAVING 3-6 INCHES ROUGHLY NW OF A LINE FROM KSAW TO
IRON RIVER. NO ALL THAT CONFIDENT IN EXACT AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERALL
IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.
EXPECT LIGHT MAINLY DIURNALLY/INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS FRI. A
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT...DIURNALLY REDUCED NW WIND LES WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -17C BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. NNW WIND LES
SHOULD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SUN WILL MINIMIZE
LES. NOT SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON MON...MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUT AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS...EXPECT SE WINDS TO VEER SSW BY
THIS EVENING AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS JUST TO THE S WED NIGHT INTO THU...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
A WEAK TRAILING HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. N GALES THEN LOOK
LIKELY ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF EXTENDING FM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM NRN PLAINS
SPILLING INTO WRN AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. INTERIOR MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE THUS FAR LOWERED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TODAY...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES
EXITING TO THE E IS FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS UP TO 2-3C IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S/POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60F OVER THE FAR
W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS TROF
AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING FM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD
NRN ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 295K SFC...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHCS OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AS
ENERGY UNDERCUTS WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE RIDGE WILL
REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP ERN TROFFING INTO SE
CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 3-
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUN. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE
BEEN FOR FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN THE CORE
OF AN UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR PASSING BY TO THE
NE OF HERE. STILL...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND. QUICK MODERATION BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS
WILL THEN OCCUR NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...TEMPS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2
SHORTWAVES/LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE S
OF LINGERING COLD AIR ACROSS CANADA. AS FOR PCPN...MAIN PCPN EVENT
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN
PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU. MORE ON THIS
LATER. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN. NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AROUND
TUE.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT/WED...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SW CONUS AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 290-295K SURFACES...EXPECT RAIN
TO DEVELOP W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. UNDER SLOW HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPWARD MOTION...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE COLUMN MAY COOL JUST
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER WED AFTN AT THE
EARLIEST...ANY MIX OF RAIN WITH SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER FROPA.
AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO
THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES
TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU MANITOBA.
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP
WINTER STORM WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS MESS OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S
NOT TO SAY THAT SOME MDT TO PERHAPS HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T
OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER LAKES. AS OPPOSED TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...
ROUGHLY THE LAST DAY OF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CONVERGENCE
TOWARD A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI INTO FAR
ERN UPPER MI/STRAITS AREA. DEGREE OF PHASING OF SHORTWAVES WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN. IF THE
SHORTWAVES BECOME BETTER PHASED...A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WITH A HEAVIER/MORE PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION PCPN BAND
DEVELOPING FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR...RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK
OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. WEAKER
PHASING WILL LEAD TO A LESSER RISK OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL
PROFILES...WILL UTILIZE A BLENDED APPROACH OF RECENT MODEL RUNS TO
CONSTRUCT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PTYPE. AT THIS POINT...THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MI HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY REQUIRE A HEADLINE WED NIGHT/THU.
MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING AT LEAST SCT -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO -17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A
SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO VIGOROUS SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ALOFT. -SHSN WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH OVERALL
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE AND THUS A
QUICKER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR...MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AS LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
ON MON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY STREAK INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT
MODELS SHOW LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...TYPICAL FOR A SMALLER
SCALE FEATURE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUT AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS...EXPECT SE WINDS TO VEER SSW BY
THIS EVENING AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS JUST TO THE S WED NIGHT INTO THU...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
A WEAK TRAILING HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. N GALES THEN LOOK
LIKELY ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF EXTENDING FM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM NRN PLAINS
SPILLING INTO WRN AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. INTERIOR MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING AHVE THUS FAR LOWERED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TODAY...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES
EXITING TO THE E IS FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS UP TO 2-3C IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S/POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE FAR
W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS TROF
AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING FM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD
NRN ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 295K SFC...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHCS OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AS
ENERGY UNDERCUTS WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE RIDGE WILL
REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP ERN TROFFING INTO SE
CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 3-
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUN. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE
BEEN FOR FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN THE CORE
OF AN UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR PASSING BY TO THE
NE OF HERE. STILL...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND. QUICK MODERATION BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS
WILL THEN OCCUR NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...TEMPS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2
SHORTWAVES/LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE S
OF LINGERING COLD AIR ACROSS CANADA. AS FOR PCPN...MAIN PCPN EVENT
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN
PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU. MORE ON THIS
LATER. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN. NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AROUND
TUE.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT/WED...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SW CONUS AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 290-295K SURFACES...EXPECT RAIN
TO DEVELOP W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. UNDER SLOW HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPWARD MOTION...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE COLUMN MAY COOL JUST
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER WED AFTN AT THE
EARLIEST...ANY MIX OF RAIN WITH SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER FROPA.
AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO
THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES
TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU MANITOBA.
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP
WINTER STORM WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS MESS OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S
NOT TO SAY THAT SOME MDT TO PERHAPS HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T
OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER LAKES. AS OPPOSED TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...
ROUGHLY THE LAST DAY OF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CONVERGENCE
TOWARD A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI INTO FAR
ERN UPPER MI/STRAITS AREA. DEGREE OF PHASING OF SHORTWAVES WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN. IF THE
SHORTWAVES BECOME BETTER PHASED...A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WITH A HEAVIER/MORE PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION PCPN BAND
DEVELOPING FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR...RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK
OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. WEAKER
PHASING WILL LEAD TO A LESSER RISK OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL
PROFILES...WILL UTILIZE A BLENDED APPROACH OF RECENT MODEL RUNS TO
CONSTRUCT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PTYPE. AT THIS POINT...THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MI HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY REQUIRE A HEADLINE WED NIGHT/THU.
MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING AT LEAST SCT -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO -17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A
SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO VIGOROUS SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ALOFT. -SHSN WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH OVERALL
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE AND THUS A
QUICKER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR...MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AS LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
ON MON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY STREAK INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT
MODELS SHOW LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...TYPICAL FOR A SMALLER
SCALE FEATURE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUT AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS...EXPECT SE WINDS TO VEER SSW BY
THIS EVENING AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS JUST TO THE S WED NIGHT INTO THU...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
A WEAK TRAILING HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. N GALES THEN LOOK
LIKELY ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM QUEBEC INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG IN THE
PLAINS AND A DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. SHRTWV/DEEP LO PRES
ARE MOVING THRU SE CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW E OF THE CWA...SOME SC LINGERS OVER THE ERN
CWA IN THE THERMAL TROF /H85 TEMPS ARND -4C/ AND SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC
NLY FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LO. BUT MORE ACYC FLOW
EXTENDING S FM HI CENTER OVER FAR NW ONTARIO/ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS ERODED THE LO CLDS OVER THE W. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHRTWV/AREA OF MID CLDS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP...BUT LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STRONGER SHRTWV
IS CAUSING THESE MID CLDS TO DIMINISH AS THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON
TEMPS.
TNGT...THE HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO BUILD SLOWLY S UNDER
CONFLUENT NW FLOW E OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO BUILD
IN MN OVERNGT. EXPECT MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV TO
CONTINUE TO DSPT IN THE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THIS RDG. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE LO CLDS MAY
PERSIST OR REFORM OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE NLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHING HI PRES...DRYING/CLRG TRENDS UPSTREAM HINT THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING LESS IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. WITH
PWAT FCST TO FALL TO NEAR 0.20 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE MOCLR
SKIES...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AT SOME OF THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA.
TUE...INCRSG SLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING TO THE
E IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS TO ARND 2C IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HI CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RDG AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE WRN
GREAT LKS...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S/CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL
DOWNSLOPE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AS
ENERGY UNDERCUTS WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE RIDGE WILL
REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP ERN TROFFING INTO SE
CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 3-
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO SUN. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE
BEEN FOR FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN THE CORE
OF AN UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR PASSING BY TO THE
NE OF HERE. STILL...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
WEEKEND. QUICK MODERATION BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS
WILL THEN OCCUR NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...TEMPS
COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 2
SHORTWAVES/LOW PRES SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE S
OF LINGERING COLD AIR ACROSS CANADA. AS FOR PCPN...MAIN PCPN EVENT
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAIN
PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU. MORE ON THIS
LATER. CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHSN. NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AROUND
TUE.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT/WED...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SW CONUS AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 290-295K SURFACES...EXPECT RAIN
TO DEVELOP W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. UNDER SLOW HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPWARD MOTION...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE COLUMN MAY COOL JUST
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER WED AFTN AT THE
EARLIEST...ANY MIX OF RAIN WITH SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER FROPA.
AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING S INTO
THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES
TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU MANITOBA.
AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP
WINTER STORM WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS MESS OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S
NOT TO SAY THAT SOME MDT TO PERHAPS HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T
OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER LAKES. AS OPPOSED TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS DAYS...
ROUGHLY THE LAST DAY OF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER CONVERGENCE
TOWARD A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI INTO FAR
ERN UPPER MI/STRAITS AREA. DEGREE OF PHASING OF SHORTWAVES WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION IS UNCERTAIN. IF THE
SHORTWAVES BECOME BETTER PHASED...A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WITH A HEAVIER/MORE PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION PCPN BAND
DEVELOPING FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR...RESULTING IN A GREATER RISK
OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. WEAKER
PHASING WILL LEAD TO A LESSER RISK OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL
PROFILES...WILL UTILIZE A BLENDED APPROACH OF RECENT MODEL RUNS TO
CONSTRUCT PCPN AMOUNTS AND PTYPE. AT THIS POINT...THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MI HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THAT MAY REQUIRE A HEADLINE WED NIGHT/THU.
MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING AT LEAST SCT -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO -17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A
SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS LES PROCESSES AND LEADS TO VIGOROUS SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ALOFT. -SHSN WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH OVERALL
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER WEAKENING OF THE WRN RIDGE AND THUS A
QUICKER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR...MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AS LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
ON MON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY STREAK INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT
MODELS SHOW LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...TYPICAL FOR A SMALLER
SCALE FEATURE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT KSAW TUE EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS INTO
TUE. BUT AS THIS HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF DEVELOPING LO PRES IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT ESE VEERING SSW WINDS INCREASING UP TO 25 KTS
INTO WED. AS THE LO TRACKS JUST TO THE S ON WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AND INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE
LAKE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WEAK TRAILING HI PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG N WINDS THAT MAY REACH GALE FORCE COULD DEVELOP
ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LO PRES THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.AVIATION...
DESPITE THE RAPID CLEARING TREND IN THE SATELLITE HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS....VFR STATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE
AREA. THIS LATER TIMING HAD SUPPORT IN THE RAP OUTPUT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A NIGHT WITH SKC AND A LIGHT NW WIND. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME TEMPORARY BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPING
TUESDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT QUICKLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF SKC IS EXPECTED FOR LATER
TUESDAY.
FOR DTW...LOW VFR CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT...STILL
SHOULD OVER THE NEXT HOUR.A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* OUTSIDE OF FIRST HOUR IN THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
CIG BELOW 5000 FT AGL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OF THE GREAT LAKES HAS TAKEN SYNOPTIC
SCALE RAIN OUT OF SE MICHIGAN LEAVING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
INSTABILITY SHOWER...LOW CLOUDS...AND DIMINISHING WIND FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST LATE MARCH SURFACE HEATING COULD BUBBLE INTO A BRIEF
SHOWER BEFORE SUNSET WHILE CLOUDS TEND TO BREAK UP/BECOME LESS
STRATIFIED.
DRY AND COOLER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO PROMOTE A DECREASING
CLOUD TREND TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALWAYS ADDS AN
ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY TO ANY CLEARING TREND DUE TO LAKE CLOUD
INFLUENCE. IN THIS CASE NEUTRAL NORTHERLY FLOW IS A DRY CLOUD
DIRECTION FOR SE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS OFFERS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO ON THE CLOUD
EVOLUTION AS IT SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD FIELD LINES UP EASTWARD OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS ALSO SOME DIURNAL TEXTURE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE WHICH SUGGESTS FURTHER EROSION WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET. SO THERE MAY BE SOME DELAY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
ACCELERATION OF CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT IN TIME TO PROMOTE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR A CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT
READINGS TO EASILY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH ARE ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHILE SOME MID 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AROUND SE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE AND
MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY THE SHALLOWEST OF A NEAR SURFACE
MOIST LAYER THAT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT
LATE MARCH CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE NEAR 50 SOUTH AND A MIX OF 40S OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN
IS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE DATE AS A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND DOESNT OFFER MUCH REASON FOR ADJUSTMENT
OUTSIDE OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE THUMB. ONSET OF THE MID WEEK WARMING
TREND THEN LOOKS SOLID AS SOUTHERLY FLOW GAINS MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES OVER NORTH
AMERICA... PRIMARILY ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL ALSO PROMOTE DEEP
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE OVERACHIEVEMENT SINCE THE
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS PRIOR TO BETTER RAINFALL CHANCE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS ARE THUS NUDGED ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CAUTION
FACTORED IN FOR LATE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE TYPE SE WIND COMPONENT.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. LOW TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID
30S. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EVEN COOLER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LINGERING WAVE ACTION ON SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER ALL OTHER
MARINE AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW CANCELLATION OF THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AS OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A SHARP RECOVERY TAKING PLACE DURING LATE AFTERNOON.
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GET A WARMING TREND GOING
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN MODEST DURING THIS TIME
UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BT/RK
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1129 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
H5 HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. A TROUGH WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SWD TO THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF IDAHO WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. HT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOST
PRONOUNCED AT RENO AND MEDFORD OREGON WHERE 100-120 METER FALLS WERE
NOTED. FURTHER EAST...70-90 METER FALLS WERE NOTED AT ELKO NEVADA
AND SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO...WYOMING...ALONG WITH THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED
TO A DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
INVADING HIGH CLOUDINESS CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA... FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE SURFACE LOW.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED WITH THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT RELAXING AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
AFTER DARK. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND MOST
MODELS SHOWING H85 WINDS NEAR 20-25KTS. AROUND 06Z... THE RAP IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE LLJ WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 50KTS OVER THE
SANDHILLS. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE ECLIPSING 30F IN FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 OVERNIGHT... BUT
PUSHED THE POPS BACK UNTIL AFTER 09Z. HRRR KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH 08Z... AND SOME NCAR WRF MEMBERS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
09Z OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KLBF...
KBBW...AND KONL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED SHOWER OR STORM WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LIFT ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH CAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500J/KG AND POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX... BUT
LLJ WILL RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SHEAR. DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER... BREEZY CONDITIONS... AND H85 TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 9C... WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND OF MIN TEMPS OF UPPER 30S
PANHANDLE AND NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY... TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE MAV DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS NEAR 20C AT KIML AND 13C AT KVTN...
ECS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THERMAL AXIS... AND NAM SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA RESULTING IN 10C AT KIML AND 6C AT KVTN. HAVE COOLEST HIGHS
NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO COOLER H85 TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL
FGEN FORCING ENTERS THE PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z... SO EXPANDED POPS FROM
KIML TO KVTN. MENTIONED THUNDER WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG... 0-6KM
SHEAR NEAR 45KTS... AND LIFTED INDEX NEAR 0. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT KAIA AND KOGA SHOW SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295K AND 300K. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALSO CONTINUES WITH MIXING RATIOS NEARING 8G/KG AND DEW
POINTS PASSING 45F BY 21Z.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
MID RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...AND
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...BRIEFLY ALONG AND EAST OF A MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA LINE. BY
MIDNIGHT...THE H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT SERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBR
PANHANDLE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPG LOW...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS MID LEVEL WAA AND LIFT. LIFT WILL
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INVOF OF THE H7
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY MENTION OF POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE NOTED PER NAM AND GFS FCST NEGATIVE H850 LIFTED INDICES. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE EAST ENTERING THE
WESTERN CWA...THEN EXITING THE EASTERN CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO COLD AIR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 LOW AND THIS TIES IN DIRECTLY TO SNOW
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST SOLN...WITH
THE ECMWF WARMEST AND THE NAM A COMPROMISE. ALSO...THE 12Z
GFS...AND00Z ECMWF FROM LAST NIGHT...LIFT THE H5 LOW IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS MORE EAST.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLN WHICH
WAS FAVORED. THIS SOLN GENERATES THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NERN PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY.
UTILIZING A 8-1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO SINCE TEMPS HOVER IN THE LOWER
30S...YIELDS 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO HOIST A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY FOR WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
EAST...A LATER CHANGEOVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FACILITATE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACCUMS WITH AROUND 1 INCH TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD RAIN WEDS NIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDS AFTERNOON...THE NAM12 REMAINS
THE FARTHEST WEST WITH ITS DRYLINE WEDS AFTN AND BY 00Z
THURSDAY...IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM SOLN
INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE BULGE...JUST TO THE EAST OF
WHEELER COUNTY LATE WEDS AFTN. SWRLY H5 WINDS WILL CARRY THIS AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA...SO NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW...WILL END OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEING IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. IN THESE AREAS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT...WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MENTION WAS CONTINUED WITH THE NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BACK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM 2C IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO -4C IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 50 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ATTM...THE MODELS DO KEEP THIS AIR
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MAY BE VULNERABLE TO
THIS ARCTIC AIR BACKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLIER MODEL SOLNS SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS TUESDAY HAVE VANISHED.
THE LATEST NAM SUGGESTS MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE.
MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AOA 08Z
WHICH SHOULD EXIT 15Z-18Z. ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTH AND SPREADS
NORTH NORTHEAST.
OTHER SHOWER AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY
AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN NEB FROM 21Z ONWARD TUESDAY
AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
225 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE
PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM... THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 40 MPH ACROSS WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE AREA AT 3AM...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 523 UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THOSE GUSTY WINDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER
WIND CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER
DYNAMICS TO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE DOWN AROUND 5000 FEET...BUT WITH THE
COLD POOL BASICALLY CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE START OF A WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH THAT IS POISED
TO DEVELOP AFTER THE MAIN LOW EXITS THE REGION MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE REGION IN A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
...ESPECIALLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAYS WIND
EVENT...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN WATER RECREATION IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
THE SECOND UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...GIVING WAY TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
RESULTING IN BENIGN WEATHER AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. TO
GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON HOW QUICKLY WE WILL WARM UP...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES
QUICKLY DEGRADE IN QUALITY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ONLY
CURRENT CONSISTENT SIGNALS POINTING TOWARD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET WILL BE KEY IN WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH OUR WEATHER...WITH AT
LEAST ONE SOLUTION POINTING AT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED!
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CEILING AOA 8K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POCKETS OF STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PULLIN
AVIATION...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
221 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over Eastern Nevada will continue to bring a few
showers today and Wednesday. The low moves east by the end of the
week with high pressure building in and lasting into the weekend.
A return to dry conditions and above average temperatures is
expected by Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The upper low now over Eastern Nevada will move little today and
keep plenty of clouds around. A few showers are possible,
especially east of highway 95 closer to the low. The GFS and NAM
differ though as to if there will be any sort of weak
wraparound/warm air advection snow moving into Western Nevada. The
GFS has it, although it is very weak, while the NAM doesn`t. The
NAM seems to have a slightly better handle on it and keeps it east
of highway 95 at worst. The latest HRRR also supports this idea so
cut back on pops a little for Mono and Western Mineral Counties.
Temperatures will remain quite cool today and feel even colder
with a brisk north to northeast wind.
The low then weakens and moves southeast Wednesday with a further
reduction in showers, mainly isolated south of highway 50. By
Thursday, the low is far enough away with a high amplitude ridge
off the coast and light north flow over the Sierra and Western
Nevada. Dry conditions are expected on Thursday with temperatures
warming back to near average with winds also weakening. Wallmann
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
High pressure will prevail over the weekend which will result in
dry and mild weather. A weak shortwave may brush the area to the
north Saturday for a slight chance of showers north of Susanville
and Gerlach. Temperatures will climb to around 60 in Sierra
Valleys and around 70 for lower western NV valleys.
For early next week, models continue to diverge with some showing
another cold low dropping southward into the region while others
have only a progressive system brushing by to the north. The 00z
deterministic GFS is one of the colder and wetter solutions, but
looking at its ensemble suite, there is sufficient spread to keep
confidence at low. So there were no changes made beyond Sunday.
Hohmann
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low will continue to bring a brisk north to northeast flow
and isold-sct snow showers today and early tonight. Coverage of
showers is expected to be best south of I-80 with brief periods of
MVFR CIGS/VSBY. The probability of accumulating snow is low.
Shower coverage will decrease and shift farther south on
Wednesday. Gusty north flow aloft may result in some localized
light-moderate turbulence downwind of mountain ranges. Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
454 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THURSDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES
REMAINED QUITE WARM...KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOL BUT A GREAT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE WINDS GO CALM
AND WITH CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD RADIATE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. MOST
AREAS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME SCATTERED BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WED NT...PICKING UP
SRN STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF IT. THIS INCREASES MOISTURE...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...DRIVEN
MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FORCING.
THE S/W TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THU...AS ANOTHER
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
NONETHELESS...STRONG INFLOW OUT OF THE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THU AS A WEAKENING
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT / PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS. RUC MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KTS THU AFTERNOON...KEPT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR LESS IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW. THE STRONG MOIST FLOW IN A MODEST NARROW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
ALSO WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INHERITED IN THE FCST.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE FCST AREA THU NT...DRIVEN BY THE
SECOND S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE W AS A RESULT. THE SECOND S/W CROSSES FRI. KEPT
BUT SLOWED THE DEPICTION OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE ON FRI CODED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BY NT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WED AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20S...SO A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WED AFTERNOON. RIDGES WARM WED NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE CROSSING THURSDAY AND THE
SECOND ONE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A LOW SFC BASED
CAPE...HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FACT THAT THE FRONT
PASSES AT NIGHT MAKE ME BELIEVE IT WILL LOOSE DIURNAL HEATING
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE...CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
CKB...EKN...BKW WHERE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 14
OR 15Z...POSSIBLY LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING AT
SITES KEKN AS TROUGH MOVES OUT LATER IN THE MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST. ALSO HAVE A 4 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT EKN THIS
MORNING AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR CONDITIONS
THERE...I AM NOT SO SURE THEY WILL DROP THAT LOW. HOWEVER...THEY
WILL AT LEAST BE LOW MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO 1K FEET.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/29/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE IS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SHRA OVER NE
AND N CNTRL OH. THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN IN A FEW
PLACES.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR PIX AND INSISTENCE OF LIGHT ACTIVITY ON THE
HRRR AND RAP WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT THEN
TAPER DOWN DURING THE LAST THIRD OF THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO WIN OUT.
STILL THINK THAT AS LONG AS THERE IS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON`T BE
ABLE TO DROP TO 32 SO NOT SEEING A THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIP.
LOWS GENERALLY 32 TO 35 EXCEPT AROUND 30 FOR INLAND NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT INLAND AND GRADUALLY MIX AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 50 ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 NORTHWEST PA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING AND IT WILL GET CHILLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR
COULD BEGIN TO RISE ELSEWHERE AS THE SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A VARIETY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY MIXED WITH SOME SUNSHINE. OUR WARM UPS HAVE BEEN FAST
AND FURIOUS THIS SPRING AND WILL NOT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE OF LOWER
60S MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER COLORADO LOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A NICE PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE
DEVELOPING JET AS A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. NO WAY TO KNOW HOW MUCH THINGS WILL
PHASE BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO FORECAST AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY THERE MAY BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE TIME OF DAY. HIGHS AT LEAST
IN THE MID 60S AND IT COULD BE ANOTHER OF THOSE DAYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES SNEAK TO 70 IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MEANS ONLY ONE THING FOR THE EAST. DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A
BROAD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS PRESENT ALONG WITH SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION...CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA...MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT AND WILL KEEP A MINIMAL
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...BY MONDAY...A
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT MODELS
SO FAR KEEP THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG WARM-UPS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR TO START...BUT SOME MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF A FEW
REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH. THE TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOR SKIES TO
CLEAR/STRATUS TO BREAK UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN DRIER AIR AND
MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD FORWARD PROGRESS TO THE CLEARING NOTED ON
SATELLITE THE LAST FEW HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
DAY...AND LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT ESE FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW GALES AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DISCONTINUED. I THINK THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 9 PM. LATER SHIFT CAN GO AHEAD AND DROP IT AS
APPROPRIATE. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST OF THE LAKE AND
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND VARIABLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. COLD DOME WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS OVER LAND RATHER THAN OVER THE WATER. EVENTUALLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVERCOME THE COLD DOME
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE WINDS
FINALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL MOVE INTO NW COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR DENVER BY 12Z WED. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY THIS AFTN WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN QG ASCENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. WILL ALSO SEE A FEW TSTMS AS
WELL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. OVER NERN CO LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY NR DENVER BY EARLY AFTN WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTN MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND HIGH BASED STORMS DVLP FM DENVER NORTH TO THE WY BORDER. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS NRN CO WILL
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QG ASCENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
THE BEST FOCUS LIKELY NORTH OF A DENVER TO AKRON LINE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENDS UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DENVER AND
FORT COLLINS THEN BEST CHC OF PCPN WOULD LIKELY STAY CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS SNOW.
IN THE MTNS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WNW AROUND MIDNIGHT
SHOULD SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
OVERALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY IN ZNS 31 AND 33.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE SHEARING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AND INTO
NEBRASKA. RISING MOTIONS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW EVENTUALLY FALLS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST THAN THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL FAVOR THE
NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. EVEN
SO...DENVER SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE PASSING
SYSTEM...SO WILL ONLY MENTION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
DENVER AND BOULDER AREAS. NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WILL HAVE HEAVIER
SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...KEEPING THE SNOW TOO WET TO
PRODUCE ANY BLOWING OR DRIFTING.
THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
STATE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATER ON AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE
STATE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE OVER BY FRIDAY
WITH A DRY WEEKEND ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LATEST DATA SHOWS A SFC LOW MAY INTENSIFY NR DENVER THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. THE RAP KEEPS IT WEST OF DIA WHILE THE HRRR HAS IT JUST NE
OF DIA. THUS WND FCST THIS AFTN WILL NOT BE EASY DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE SFC LOW IS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS WITH MORE A SLY
COMPONENT FOR THE AFTN AND THEN TURN THEM MORE WNW BY 23Z. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVEING HOURS AND AS MID
LVL QG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS COULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
TSTMS. IF THESE OCCUR WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY FM OUTFLOWS
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. APPEARS PCPN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z. OVERNIGHT THERE IS PRETTY STG DOWNWARD FORCING SHOWN IF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN
AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THIS OCCURS. WINDS BY MIDNIGHT MAY BECOME MORE
WSW AND STAY THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
WILL SEE GUSTY SSW WINDS AND LOW RH ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY THIS AFTN SO WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ247.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ031-033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.UPDATE...LAPS DEW POINT ANALYSIS INDICATING COLD FRONT FROM
AROUND A ST AUGUSTINE TO CROSS CITY LINE. FRONT WILL PUSH TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LIGHT NNE WINDS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...MAINLY MARION
COUNTY...AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH CNTL AND
CNTL FL. THE SHORT WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A SEABREEZE COLLISION
AND OTHER OUTFLOWS TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS CNTL FL AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS N CNTL FL AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR IF THE AIR MASS THERE CAN MOISTEN AND
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS MARION COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. EVERYWHERE ELSE
WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
COASTAL AREAS THE COOLEST...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 20000 FT.
&&
.MARINE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING BUT REMAINING
BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SURF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 77 50 77 62 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 70 59 72 65 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 79 56 78 65 / 0 0 20 10
SGJ 74 63 77 67 / 10 0 20 10
GNV 80 58 80 65 / 10 0 20 10
OCF 80 60 83 66 / 30 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/MZ/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
939 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO/CANAVERAL...
CURRENT-TODAY...MORNING 12Z KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BUT SURPRISINGLY SHALLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. 700/500MB TEMPS
ARE +8.1C/-12.9C RESPECTIVELY WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.11 INCHES.
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. PESKY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY BURNING OFF
PAST MID MORNING. NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST TURNS US TO THE GOMEX WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ALREADY
COOLER AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR U70S/L80S FOR HIGHS BUT
IF DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...AS DEPICTED BY MODELS...IS LATE TO SHOW
UP OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST THEN IT IS FEASIBLE WE COULD SEE HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
HAVING SAID THAT...LOCAL HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF
MOVING ONTO THE SW/WCNTRL FL COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EASTWARD BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ECFL...GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM KMCO FOR STRONGER/ISOLD SVR ACTIVITY. CONCERNS WITH
CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
TONIGHT...PREVIOUS...THE QUICK MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME SHOWERS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
TREASURE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...STUBBORN FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING OFF THIS MORNING
WITH A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS THE MCS APPROACHING FROM EASTERN GULF FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. GREATEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL EXIST SOUTHWARD FROM
KMCO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIE. WILL APPROACH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG/ISOLD SVR. MAIN CONCERNS TO AVIATION ARE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF
SOUTHERN FL COAST.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE ERN
GULF POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE CAPE...EXPECTING NMRS SHRA`S/SCT STRONG STORMS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING ALL IN PLAY. NWRLY MORNING WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
FORECAST TO VEER TO NNE OR E DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELD
WILL LIKELY BE DISRUPTED BY THE LARGE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
ERN GULF WITH WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CONVECTION. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE OTHERWISE.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO END SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. MARINERS
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
FOR APPROACHING BAD WEATHER.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN AWHILE BUT WE FINALLY HAVE A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE
NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE MID WEST STATES MEANS A TEMPORARY
REPRIEVE FROM QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS THAT SWIFT ZONAL FLOWN HAD BEEN
PROVIDING. SO FOR TODAY...IT BECOMES MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH IS MADE DIFFICULT BY RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. UNDER A
MUCH DIFFERENT SETUP WE SAW TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE SAT AND SUN
WHILE YESTERDAY WE WERE A TOUCH ABOVE. FEEL CURRENT SETUP IS MUCH
MORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS DESPITE SOME ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS REACHING THE MID 70S.
FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES...WE WILL SEE A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 4K
FT AND MIXING TO 5K FEET. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS TODAY WITH THIS MIXING PROFILE THAT DRIVES RH
VALUES TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. DURATIONS ARE
WILL BE CLOSE BUT SHOULD BE MET FOR WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. THERE IS
SOME SUBTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LATE ON WED THAT WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC
LIFT BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DEESE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LATE
WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PULLS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THURSDAY. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SETTLES INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...ACTING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY WILL USHER THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...FINALLY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
CAPES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS. SPC ALREADY HAS THE PORTIONS OF THE CWA OUTLOOKED
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAY 3 /THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
CARROLLTON...TO ATLANTA...TO MACON...TO ALBANY. THE REMAINING
AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
IS IN THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE OUTLOOK ZONE FOR FRIDAY /DAY 4/. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE THUNDER MENTION FOR BOTH TIMEFRAMES WITH
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASING STRONG CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...AND THIS WORDING MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ANOMALOUS PWS ARE ALSO OF A CONCERN FOR THIS PROLONGED
PERIOD...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE AND THE BOUNDARY
BEING A PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR NOW HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE POSITIONED OVER FAR
NORTH GEORGIA FOR THURSDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WPC
FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF
SELECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN A CONSENSUS.
ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE STATE SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
OF HOW LONG THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...WITH THE GFS BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBOR GRIDS.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... NO CONCERNS AS VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER
NORTHEAST BY 14Z THIS MORNING... THEN BECOME MORE EAST BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 8KTS OR LESS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 45 74 60 / 0 0 0 60
ATLANTA 71 49 73 61 / 0 0 5 70
BLAIRSVILLE 66 42 66 55 / 0 0 5 80
CARTERSVILLE 70 45 74 61 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBUS 76 50 79 64 / 0 0 10 60
GAINESVILLE 68 47 70 58 / 0 0 5 70
MACON 74 47 77 61 / 0 0 0 40
ROME 69 43 75 60 / 0 0 10 80
PEACHTREE CITY 72 45 75 60 / 0 0 5 70
VIDALIA 75 49 77 63 / 0 0 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF EXTENDING FM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM NRN PLAINS
SPILLING INTO WRN AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. INTERIOR MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE THUS FAR LOWERED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TODAY...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES
EXITING TO THE E IS FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS UP TO 2-3C IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S/POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60F OVER THE FAR
W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS TROF
AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING FM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD
NRN ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 295K SFC...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHCS OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
FOCUS IS ON MID WEEK STORM...BUT MAINLY IN THE LATE WED THROUGH THU
TIME FRAME WHEN PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
BOTH.
COULD WRITE A NOVEL ON ALL THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUMMARIZE GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES AND
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED AND LITTLE TO INDICATE ANY ONE MODEL MAY BE
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT MOVES SE OF THE CWA. HIGHLY COMPLEX SET UP
WITH MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY THAT WILL DECIDE ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK/STRENGTH AND THERMAL FIELDS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW
THE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT AND HOW MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR. OF
CERTAINTY IS RAIN AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER FOR THE CWA ON WED...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY COMING IN LATE WED AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS TEND TO FALL INTO TWO CAMPS. THE
GFS AND GLOBAL GEM ARE FARTHER NW AND WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AND
NAM...AND ALSO FARTHER NW THAN THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THESE MODELS
RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND HAVE THE MOST SNOW OVER THE FAR W/NW
CWA...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION BAND
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY SHOWN OVER THE
W/NW TIER OF COUNTIES. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN THE OTHER CAMP WHICH
IS FARTHER SE AND COLDER THAN THE GFS (AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO)...SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA. UPDATE WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF...THE LATEST RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW TOWARD THE GFS...SO
WILL USE MAINLY A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WITH SOME GEM AND NAM THROWN IN
AS WELL. RESULTING FORECAST IS FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NW TO
SE STARTING LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. BEST
SNOWFALL OCCURS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH THE
FORECAST NOW HAVING 3-6 INCHES ROUGHLY NW OF A LINE FROM KSAW TO
IRON RIVER. NO ALL THAT CONFIDENT IN EXACT AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERALL
IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.
EXPECT LIGHT MAINLY DIURNALLY/INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS FRI. A
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT...DIURNALLY REDUCED NW WIND LES WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -17C BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. NNW WIND LES
SHOULD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SUN WILL MINIMIZE
LES. NOT SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON MON...MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LLWS AT THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS INCREASE OFF THE
SFC. SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AS
INCREASING MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUT AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS...EXPECT SE WINDS TO VEER SSW BY
THIS EVENING AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS JUST TO THE S WED NIGHT INTO THU...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
A WEAK TRAILING HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. N GALES THEN LOOK
LIKELY ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1022 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THURSDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES
REMAINED QUITE WARM...KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOL BUT A GREAT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE WINDS GO CALM
AND WITH CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD RADIATE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. MOST
AREAS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME SCATTERED BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WED NT...PICKING UP
SRN STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF IT. THIS INCREASES MOISTURE...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...DRIVEN
MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FORCING.
THE S/W TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THU...AS ANOTHER
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
NONETHELESS...STRONG INFLOW OUT OF THE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THU AS A WEAKENING
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT / PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS. RUC MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KTS THU AFTERNOON...KEPT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR LESS IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW. THE STRONG MOIST FLOW IN A MODEST NARROW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
ALSO WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INHERITED IN THE FCST.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE FCST AREA THU NT...DRIVEN BY THE
SECOND S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE W AS A RESULT. THE SECOND S/W CROSSES FRI. KEPT
BUT SLOWED THE DEPICTION OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE ON FRI CODED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BY NT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WED AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20S...SO A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WED AFTERNOON. RIDGES WARM WED NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE CROSSING THURSDAY AND THE
SECOND ONE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A LOW SFC BASED
CAPE...HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FACT THAT THE FRONT
PASSES AT NIGHT MAKE ME BELIEVE IT WILL LOOSE DIURNAL HEATING
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE...CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN OVERHEAD...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...BUT ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE VFR BY
NOON TODAY WITH THE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THURSDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK BUT MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES
REMAINED QUITE WARM...KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOL BUT A GREAT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE WINDS GO CALM
AND WITH CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD RADIATE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. MOST
AREAS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME SCATTERED BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WED NT...PICKING UP
SRN STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF IT. THIS INCREASES MOISTURE...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...DRIVEN
MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FORCING.
THE S/W TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THU...AS ANOTHER
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
NONETHELESS...STRONG INFLOW OUT OF THE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THU AS A WEAKENING
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT / PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS. RUC MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KTS THU AFTERNOON...KEPT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR LESS IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW. THE STRONG MOIST FLOW IN A MODEST NARROW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
ALSO WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INHERITED IN THE FCST.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE FCST AREA THU NT...DRIVEN BY THE
SECOND S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE W AS A RESULT. THE SECOND S/W CROSSES FRI. KEPT
BUT SLOWED THE DEPICTION OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE ON FRI CODED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BY NT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WED AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20S...SO A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WED AFTERNOON. RIDGES WARM WED NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE CROSSING THURSDAY AND THE
SECOND ONE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A LOW SFC BASED
CAPE...HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FACT THAT THE FRONT
PASSES AT NIGHT MAKE ME BELIEVE IT WILL LOOSE DIURNAL HEATING
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE...CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN OVERHEAD...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...BUT ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE VFR BY
NOON TODAY WITH THE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
FOR PARTS OF SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:20 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION AND
OFF THE COASTLINE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR EAST-NORTHEAST, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS TO OUR REGION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY,
GRADIENTS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DECREASE. THIS WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE LOWER SPEEDS TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY -- GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW PLUS MINOR INSTABILITY A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE TRIGGERED TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION STARTING
ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S ANTICIPATED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON MONDAY FOR THE
NORTH BAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE WEST COAST ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. BEYOND THAT NO
REAL SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THAT VERIFIES, MOST SPOTS NORTH OF MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES WILL RETURN TO DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:45 AM PDT TUESDAY... LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR AS UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT SOME TAF SITES.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BREEZY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY...ONSHORE
WINDS AFTER 22Z MON. POSBL MVFR FROM STRATUS AFTER 10-12Z TUE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...NARROW STRIP OF STRATUS WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH 16-17Z.
OTHERWISE... VFR WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:20 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY BEFORE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
TODAY FROM SQUARED SEAS. IMPROVING SEAS AND WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL ENTER THE
COASTAL WATERS MID WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
918 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool weather system remains over the interior West through mid-
week resulting in cool and breezy weather for NorCal along with
scattered showers over the mountains. Minor snowfall accumulations
will be possible over the northern Sierra. Dry with warmer
temperatures by end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather day with the exception of lingering showers
over the western Sierra slopes this afternoon. The HRRR indicates
that shower activity should start developing after 11 am near and
south of the Lake Tahoe region. Sierra showers will continue into
tonight then diminish around 9-10 pm.
Models are also indicating that winds could become breezy again in
the Sacramento Valley this morning starting around 10 am through
the afternoon, then diminishing tonight.
Daytime highs will be near to slightly below normal today.
JBB
.Previous Discussion...Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across interior NorCal early this morning except for extensive
cloudiness over the northern mountains and northern Sierra as
moisture continues to wrap-around the cold closed low now located
along the NV/UT border.
The center of the low is forecast to nudge a bit further east
today, but enough moisture and instability on the backside of the
system will continue a chance of snow showers along the eastern
edge of the forecast area today. The remainder of the area will
continue to see cool and breezy conditions today, though winds are
likely to be a little weaker than Monday.
On Wednesday, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin
to influence the area`s weather, drying out most areas - though a
slight chance of lingering snow showers or flurries will be
possible near the Sierra crest south of Lake Tahoe. No significant
new snow accumulations are expected over the western slopes the
next couple of days.
High pressure takes over Thursday and Friday with dry and milder
conditions.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
A couple weak waves moves across the area over the weekend
bringing a slight chance of showers to northern mountains. Models
diverge early next week with the GFS bringing another inside
slider, while the ECMWF introduces a weak trough over the Pac NW
transitioning into a broad, flat ridge. Either way, nothing too
exciting with the best chance of showers remaining across the
mountains.
The low/trough moves east far enough by Wednesday to rid the area
of any precipitation chances, but it all depends on the position
of the high/low couplet. JClapp
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low in NV with northerly jet stream over NorCal. N-NE
sustained winds 20 to 30 kts at flight levels 020-050 MSL
highlights Valley. Potential cloud bases 080-100 AGL today with
freezing level 045 this AM increasing to 060 in PM. Winds SFC-050
gradually weaken this aftn. JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1029 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
SATELLITE SHOWING SURFACE LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF DENVER BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDS TO NNE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE CREATED BY WRAP AROUND FROM THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE RAIN EARLIER WITH IS0LATED
CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW COULD CARRY THESE CELLS TO THE NE SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH 23Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL MOVE INTO NW COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR DENVER BY 12Z WED. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE MTNS BY THIS AFTN WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN QG ASCENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. WILL ALSO SEE A FEW TSTMS AS
WELL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. OVER NERN CO LOW PRES WILL
INTENSIFY NR DENVER BY EARLY AFTN WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTN MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND HIGH BASED STORMS DVLP FM DENVER NORTH TO THE WY BORDER. AS
FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS NRN CO WILL
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF QG ASCENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
THE BEST FOCUS LIKELY NORTH OF A DENVER TO AKRON LINE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENDS UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DENVER AND
FORT COLLINS THEN BEST CHC OF PCPN WOULD LIKELY STAY CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS SNOW.
IN THE MTNS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WNW AROUND MIDNIGHT
SHOULD SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
OVERALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY IN ZNS 31 AND 33.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE SHEARING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AND INTO
NEBRASKA. RISING MOTIONS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW EVENTUALLY FALLS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST THAN THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL FAVOR THE
NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. EVEN
SO...DENVER SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE PASSING
SYSTEM...SO WILL ONLY MENTION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
DENVER AND BOULDER AREAS. NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WILL HAVE HEAVIER
SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...KEEPING THE SNOW TOO WET TO
PRODUCE ANY BLOWING OR DRIFTING.
THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
STATE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATER ON AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE
STATE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE OVER BY FRIDAY
WITH A DRY WEEKEND ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 949 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
SATELLITE SHOWS SURFACE LOW SPINNING TO THE SE OF THE AIRPORT
KEEPING CURRENT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. MODELS INDICATING AS THE
LOW PROGRESSES NE WINDS WILL MOVE AROUND TO MORE NORTH BY 17Z.
STILL SEEING SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE HRRR THAT WILL AID IN
BRINGING SOME VCTS BY 23Z AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A TEMPO OF
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERED CEILINGS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT TUE MAR 29 2016
WILL SEE GUSTY SSW WINDS AND LOW RH ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY THIS AFTN SO WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN
FIRE WEATHER...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 /
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN AWHILE BUT WE FINALLY HAVE A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER RIDGE
NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE MID WEST STATES MEANS A TEMPORARY
REPRIEVE FROM QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS THAT SWIFT ZONAL FLOWN HAD BEEN
PROVIDING. SO FOR TODAY...IT BECOMES MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WHICH IS MADE DIFFICULT BY RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. UNDER A
MUCH DIFFERENT SETUP WE SAW TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE SAT AND SUN
WHILE YESTERDAY WE WERE A TOUCH ABOVE. FEEL CURRENT SETUP IS MUCH
MORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS DESPITE SOME ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS REACHING THE MID 70S.
FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES...WE WILL SEE A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 4K
FT AND MIXING TO 5K FEET. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS TODAY WITH THIS MIXING PROFILE THAT DRIVES RH
VALUES TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. DURATIONS ARE
WILL BE CLOSE BUT SHOULD BE MET FOR WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. THERE IS
SOME SUBTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LATE ON WED THAT WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC
LIFT BUT MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR INCLUSION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DEESE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LATE
WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES ON THE RISE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PULLS AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THURSDAY. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SETTLES INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...ACTING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE STATE SATURDAY WILL USHER THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...FINALLY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
CAPES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS. SPC ALREADY HAS THE PORTIONS OF THE CWA OUTLOOKED
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAY 3 /THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
CARROLLTON...TO ATLANTA...TO MACON...TO ALBANY. THE REMAINING
AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
IS IN THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE OUTLOOK ZONE FOR FRIDAY /DAY 4/. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE THUNDER MENTION FOR BOTH TIMEFRAMES WITH
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASING STRONG CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...AND THIS WORDING MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ANOMALOUS PWS ARE ALSO OF A CONCERN FOR THIS PROLONGED
PERIOD...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE AND THE BOUNDARY
BEING A PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR NOW HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE POSITIONED OVER FAR
NORTH GEORGIA FOR THURSDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WPC
FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF
SELECTIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN A CONSENSUS.
ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE STATE SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
OF HOW LONG THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...WITH THE GFS BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH NEIGHBOR GRIDS.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING
IN SOME LOW END VFR CIGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CALM TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 45 74 60 / 0 0 0 40
ATLANTA 71 49 73 61 / 0 0 5 50
BLAIRSVILLE 66 42 66 55 / 0 0 5 70
CARTERSVILLE 70 45 74 61 / 0 0 10 60
COLUMBUS 76 50 79 64 / 0 0 10 40
GAINESVILLE 68 47 70 58 / 0 0 5 50
MACON 74 47 77 61 / 0 0 0 30
ROME 69 43 75 60 / 0 0 10 70
PEACHTREE CITY 72 45 75 60 / 0 0 5 50
VIDALIA 75 49 77 63 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG BLDG
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 80M AT GRB
AND APX...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER THE WRN CONUS.
SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS ARE RESULTING IN QUIET WX OVER THE CWA DESPITE
INCRSG HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN INCRSG SLY FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
HI PRES TO THE SE AND FALLING MSLP IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF
WRN TROF. DESPITE THE INCRSG HI CLD COVER...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 50S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF...ESPECIALLY WHERE SLY FLOW
IS DOWNSLOPING. SOME RA TO THE NE OF SFC WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS MOVED AS FAR NE AS FAR SW MN THIS AFTN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS AND TIMING
ARRIVAL OF RA AHEAD OF PLAINS SFC LO PRES/WARM FNT FCST TO APRCH FM
THE SW.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL
AIR...INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC RELATED TO SHARPENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MSTR ADVECTION BEST SHOWN ON THE 290 AND 295K SFCS /ABOUT H8-
7/ AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX FCST NEAR JAMES BAY AT
12Z WED WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. MORE PERSISTENT LLVL DRY AIR OVER THE SE HALF
CLOSER TO DEPARTING SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WL HOLD
DOWN POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH THE THICKENING CLDS AND STEADY SSW
WINDS...THE OVERNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH SFC
TEMPS FCST TO HOLD WELL ABOVE 32...THERE WL BE NO FROZEN/FRZG PCPN.
WED...PERIODS OF RA UNDER AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/290-295K ISENSTROPIC ASCENT WL BE
THE RULE. A SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHRTWV IN THE NRN
BRANCH FLOW IS FCST TO REACH THE NW CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECWMF...SUGGESTS SOME
MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NRN BRANCH FLOW MAY RESULT IN
DIMINISHING POPS OVER AT LEAST THE FAR NW LATE IN THE DAY. SO FCST
WL RETAIN SOME LOWERING OF POPS IN THAT AREA TOWARD 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS...SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER WRN N AMERICA...THOUGH THE MORE PERSISTENT POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER SHOULD REMAIN IN WRN CANADA. PER GFS ENSEMBLES...THE
RIDGE WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE WED/THU WHEN 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TOP OUT AT 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN NRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ADJACENT YUKON. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP TROFFING INTO
SE CANADA AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. MAX NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF
3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO SAT. WHILE CORE OF A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR EARLY APR WILL
PASS BY TO THE NE...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BLO CLIMATOLOGY HERE INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR
EARLY APR STANDARDS THIS WEEKEND. MODERATION WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HELPS
TO MAINTAIN ERN TROFFING. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MODERATION BACK TOWARD
MORE TYPICAL EARLY APR TEMPS DUE TO WEAKER WRN RIDGING. HOWEVER...
TEMPS COULD FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT THRU THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS
MODELS SUGGEST WRN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY AT TIMES...ALLOWING LINGERING
COLD AIR IN CANADA TO DUMP S BRIEFLY BEHIND PASSING SHORTWAVES. AS
FOR PCPN...EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...PCPN WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES S IN THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE MAIN PCPN EVENT OF THIS FCST CYCLE...OCCURRING WED/THU.
SHORTWAVE PASSING FRI WILL PRODUCE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHSN. CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSING EARLY SAT WILL THEN HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY LATE SEASON LES AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHSN. AFTER THE WEEKEND...THERE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY IN PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL PCPN.
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AND RECENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGEST THE NEXT BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WOULD OCCUR AROUND WED.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT/THU...AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THU...DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE PLAINS WILL DETERMINE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PHASING IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE THRU
MANITOBA. BASED ON YESTERDAYS AND TODAY GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEVELOPED/WRAPPED UP WINTER
STORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND OF HVY PCPN WILL EVOLVE
FROM THIS COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES...BUT THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT SOME
MDT TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WON`T OCCUR SOMEWHERE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NARROW IN ON A SFC LOW TRACK FROM THE WRN
PLAINS ENE ACROSS WI AND THRU THE STRAITS AREA...AND ALL AVBL 12Z
MODELS NOW SHOW QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR
INTO UPPER MI WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS
CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST S WITH COLDER AIR AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT EACH
TIME STEP LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU. IN EXCLUDING THE NAM...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX GRADUALLY WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE WED
NIGHT/THU...BEGINNING NW LATE WED EVENING AND NOT REACHING THE SE
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN THU. WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEVELOPED
SYSTEM/DEFORMATION PCPN...HEAVIER PCPN WILL NOT EXTEND TOO FAR NW
INTO THE COLDER AIR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
MAX SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVY RANGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE NW HALF
OF UPPER MI. PER 00Z AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE AREA
ROUGHLY FROM WATERSMEET/IRON RIVER NE THRU MICHIGAMME/NEGAUNEE
SHOULD BE THE APPROXIMATE ZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACHED...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY FALLING DURING THE DAY THU WHEN WEAK SOLAR
INSOLATION WILL AID MELTING...WATCH HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED.
MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN SHIELD WILL DEPART LATER THU/THU EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL THEN SWING THRU NRN
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES ON FRI...PROVIDING SCT TO NMRS -SHSN THAT WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CHILLY 500MB TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID -30S C.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHSN. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -14 TO
-17C SAT...LOOKS LIKE A SPRING-TIME HYBRID TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT
SCENARIO SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE AS DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTS LES
PROCESSES AND LEADS TO SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN VIGOROUS SHSN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT. -SHSN
WOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL LES REGIME SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -20C. WITH MODERATING
TEMPS ALOFT AND LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW...MAY NOT SEE MUCH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHSN ACTIVITY ON SUN AFTER LES PROCESSES GET DISRUPTED AGAIN
BY DAYTIME HEATING.
HEADING INTO MON/TUE...THE LAST DAY OR SO OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
HAVE SUGGESTED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE INTO THE RETREATING ERN TROF.
ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WEAK SFC WAVE TRACKING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR WOULD GENERATE A STREAK OF SN
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
SUN NIGHT/MON. UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS FOR POPS
(MOSTLY SCHC) DUE TO THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY. SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE A POTENTIAL MIXED
PCPN EVENT WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES IN LOWER MI WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TNGT UNDER THICKENING HIER CLDS. GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND DVLPG LO
PRES IN THE PLAINS WL GIVE WAY TO SOME LLWS TNGT WITH INCRSG NEAR
SFC STABILITY. AS THE SSW FLOW TAPS MOISTER AIR LATE TNGT/WED
MRNG...EXPECT SOME -RA TO ARRIVE AND CIGS TO GRDLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN THE IFR RANGE BY WED MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT BETWEEN
DEPARTING HI PRES AND LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...
EXPECT SSW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NNW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONGER NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS
WILL BE THE RULE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS A LO PRES RIDES NE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THERE COULD BE SOME GALES ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF ON THU. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS LO TO
THE NE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE ON FRI. EXPECT
ANOTHER LO TO TRACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE AT NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS COULD REACH AS HI AS 30
TO 35 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUN WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
TRAILING HI PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG BLDG
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 80M AT GRB
AND APX...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER THE WRN CONUS.
SFC HI PRES OVER LOWER MI AND VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS ARE RESULTING IN QUIET WX OVER THE CWA DESPITE
INCRSG HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN INCRSG SLY FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
HI PRES TO THE SE AND FALLING MSLP IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF
WRN TROF. DESPITE THE INCRSG HI CLD COVER...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
INTO THE 50S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF...ESPECIALLY WHERE SLY FLOW
IS DOWNSLOPING. SOME RA TO THE NE OF SFC WARM FNT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS MOVED AS FAR NE AS FAR SW MN THIS AFTN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS AND TIMING
ARRIVAL OF RA AHEAD OF PLAINS SFC LO PRES/WARM FNT FCST TO APRCH FM
THE SW.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL
AIR...INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC RELATED TO SHARPENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MSTR ADVECTION BEST SHOWN ON THE 290 AND 295K SFCS /ABOUT H8-
7/ AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX FCST NEAR JAMES BAY AT
12Z WED WL RESULT IN INCRSG POPS OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. MORE PERSISTENT LLVL DRY AIR OVER THE SE HALF
CLOSER TO DEPARTING SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WL HOLD
DOWN POPS IN THAT AREA. WITH THE THICKENING CLDS AND STEADY SSW
WINDS...THE OVERNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH SFC
TEMPS FCST TO HOLD WELL ABOVE 32...THERE WL BE NO FROZEN/FRZG PCPN.
WED...PERIODS OF RA UNDER AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/290-295K ISENSTROPIC ASCENT WL BE
THE RULE. A SFC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHRTWV IN THE NRN
BRANCH FLOW IS FCST TO REACH THE NW CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECWMF...SUGGESTS SOME
MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NRN BRANCH FLOW MAY RESULT IN
DIMINISHING POPS OVER AT LEAST THE FAR NW LATE IN THE DAY. SO FCST
WL RETAIN SOME LOWERING OF POPS IN THAT AREA TOWARD 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
FOCUS IS ON MID WEEK STORM...BUT MAINLY IN THE LATE WED THROUGH THU
TIME FRAME WHEN PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
BOTH.
COULD WRITE A NOVEL ON ALL THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUMMARIZE GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES AND
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED AND LITTLE TO INDICATE ANY ONE MODEL MAY BE
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT MOVES SE OF THE CWA. HIGHLY COMPLEX SET UP
WITH MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY THAT WILL DECIDE ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK/STRENGTH AND THERMAL FIELDS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW
THE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT AND HOW MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR. OF
CERTAINTY IS RAIN AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER FOR THE CWA ON WED...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY COMING IN LATE WED AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS TEND TO FALL INTO TWO CAMPS. THE
GFS AND GLOBAL GEM ARE FARTHER NW AND WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AND
NAM...AND ALSO FARTHER NW THAN THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THESE MODELS
RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND HAVE THE MOST SNOW OVER THE FAR W/NW
CWA...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION BAND
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY SHOWN OVER THE
W/NW TIER OF COUNTIES. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN THE OTHER CAMP WHICH
IS FARTHER SE AND COLDER THAN THE GFS (AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO)...SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA. UPDATE WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF...THE LATEST RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW TOWARD THE GFS...SO
WILL USE MAINLY A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WITH SOME GEM AND NAM THROWN IN
AS WELL. RESULTING FORECAST IS FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NW TO
SE STARTING LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. BEST
SNOWFALL OCCURS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH THE
FORECAST NOW HAVING 3-6 INCHES ROUGHLY NW OF A LINE FROM KSAW TO
IRON RIVER. NO ALL THAT CONFIDENT IN EXACT AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERALL
IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.
EXPECT LIGHT MAINLY DIURNALLY/INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS FRI. A
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT...DIURNALLY REDUCED NW WIND LES WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -17C BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. NNW WIND LES
SHOULD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SUN WILL MINIMIZE
LES. NOT SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON MON...MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES IN LOWER MI WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TNGT UNDER THICKENING HIER CLDS. GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND DVLPG LO
PRES IN THE PLAINS WL GIVE WAY TO SOME LLWS TNGT WITH INCRSG NEAR
SFC STABILITY. AS THE SSW FLOW TAPS MOISTER AIR LATE TNGT/WED
MRNG...EXPECT SOME -RA TO ARRIVE AND CIGS TO GRDLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN THE IFR RANGE BY WED MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT BETWEEN
DEPARTING HI PRES AND LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS...
EXPECT SSW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NNW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONGER NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS
WILL BE THE RULE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS A LO PRES RIDES NE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THERE COULD BE SOME GALES ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF ON THU. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS LO TO
THE NE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE ON FRI. EXPECT
ANOTHER LO TO TRACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE AT NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS COULD REACH AS HI AS 30
TO 35 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUN WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
TRAILING HI PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF EXTENDING FM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF OVER WRN NAMERICA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM NRN PLAINS
SPILLING INTO WRN AND SCNTRL UPPER MI. INTERIOR MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE THUS FAR LOWERED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TODAY...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES
EXITING TO THE E IS FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS UP TO 2-3C IN THE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S/POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60F OVER THE FAR
W WHERE THE STEADY SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS TROF
AND A WEAKER NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SWINGING FM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD
NRN ONTARIO...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE UP THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. UNDER THE STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 295K SFC...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHCS OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
FOCUS IS ON MID WEEK STORM...BUT MAINLY IN THE LATE WED THROUGH THU
TIME FRAME WHEN PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
BOTH.
COULD WRITE A NOVEL ON ALL THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUMMARIZE GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES AND
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED AND LITTLE TO INDICATE ANY ONE MODEL MAY BE
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT MOVES SE OF THE CWA. HIGHLY COMPLEX SET UP
WITH MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY THAT WILL DECIDE ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK/STRENGTH AND THERMAL FIELDS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW
THE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT AND HOW MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR. OF
CERTAINTY IS RAIN AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER FOR THE CWA ON WED...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY COMING IN LATE WED AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS TEND TO FALL INTO TWO CAMPS. THE
GFS AND GLOBAL GEM ARE FARTHER NW AND WARMER THAN THE ECMWF AND
NAM...AND ALSO FARTHER NW THAN THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THESE MODELS
RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND HAVE THE MOST SNOW OVER THE FAR W/NW
CWA...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION BAND
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY SHOWN OVER THE
W/NW TIER OF COUNTIES. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN THE OTHER CAMP WHICH
IS FARTHER SE AND COLDER THAN THE GFS (AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO)...SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA. UPDATE WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF...THE LATEST RUN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW TOWARD THE GFS...SO
WILL USE MAINLY A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WITH SOME GEM AND NAM THROWN IN
AS WELL. RESULTING FORECAST IS FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NW TO
SE STARTING LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. BEST
SNOWFALL OCCURS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH THE
FORECAST NOW HAVING 3-6 INCHES ROUGHLY NW OF A LINE FROM KSAW TO
IRON RIVER. NO ALL THAT CONFIDENT IN EXACT AMOUNTS...BUT THE OVERALL
IDEA SEEMS REASONABLE. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.
EXPECT LIGHT MAINLY DIURNALLY/INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS FRI. A
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT...DIURNALLY REDUCED NW WIND LES WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -17C BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. NNW WIND LES
SHOULD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SUN WILL MINIMIZE
LES. NOT SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON MON...MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES IN LOWER MI WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TNGT UNDER THICKENING HIER CLDS. GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND DVLPG LO
PRES IN THE PLAINS WL GIVE WAY TO SOME LLWS TNGT WITH INCRSG NEAR
SFC STABILITY. AS THE SSW FLOW TAPS MOISTER AIR LATE TNGT/WED
MRNG...EXPECT SOME -RA TO ARRIVE AND CIGS TO GRDLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN THE IFR RANGE BY WED MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUT AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE E OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE PLAINS...EXPECT SE WINDS TO VEER SSW BY
THIS EVENING AND INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED MORNING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS JUST TO THE S WED NIGHT INTO THU...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
A WEAK TRAILING HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. N GALES THEN LOOK
LIKELY ON SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRES AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE UTAH AND
NEVADA BORDER. 100 METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA
INTO NRN AZ AND A 90 KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM SAN DIEGO...TO
FLAGSTAFF AZ. UPSTREAM OF THE LOW...RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
OZARKS NWD INTO NRN MINNESOTA...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
OVER SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION...LED TO THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SWRN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 54 AT ONEILL TO
65 AT NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD...THE MAIN
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THE LATEST NAM12...GFS AND HRRR SOLNS
INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NEBR/CO BORDER AROUND 23Z THIS
EVENING...LIFTING THIS NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
AND NWRN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOTED
TONIGHT WITH 40 TO 60 KTS NOTED. HOWEVER MEAGER CAPES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG EXIST...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MARGINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO GIVEN
THE STRONG APPROACHING LOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A STRONG TS THREAT GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO
VALENTINE LINE. OVERNIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
IN THE VICINITY OF A H7 FRONT WHICH IS ANCHORED ALONG THE SD/NEBR
BORDER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS WELL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS H800 LI/S REMAIN NEGATIVE ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...I KEPT IN A
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE INHERITED FCST. SHIFTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PANHANDLE
INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDS AM...AIR WILL COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. A NICE AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WEDS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EAST..IT
OPENS UP AS IT INCREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY TIGHT WINDOW FOR
CONDS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THIS WINDOW HAS BECOME SMALLER WITH THIS
MORNINGS MODEL RUNS AS H85 TEMPS ARE NOW RUNNING 1-2C WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE NORTHWEST...WE ARE LOOKING AT A 3-6 HR
WINDOW WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. ATTM THAT IS APPROXIMATELY
FROM 15 TO 21Z WEDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...CUT BACK SNOW ACCUMS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND NOW HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR WEDS AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. FURTHER EAST...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDS AFTN AND EVE AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORCE THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDS AM. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN FOR A STRONG STORM MAY LIE IN
THE FAR NERN CWA WHICH MAY END UP INVOF OF A WARM FRONT WEDS AFTN.
THIS IS MORE FAVORED WITH THE GFS SOLN AS THE NAM12 HAS THIS FRONT
SE OF THE AREA BY 21Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
00Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
AND RESULTANT FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A MARKED DECREASE IN INTENSITY WELL BEFORE
06Z. THE DECREASE IN QPF HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND ULJ DIVE SOUTH FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS SHOWN TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED FOR AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF QPF BEGINNING LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF
IS SHOWN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE OMEGA IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN OVER SNOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE 18Z AND AFTER 00Z AS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH THE DIURNAL TREND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT. DUE
TO RAPID COOLING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SHOWN IN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THUS SHOWERS ARE PREFERRED...BUT
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY ADVANCES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH QPF
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BEYOND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE
FORECAST TURNS DRY WITH A STARK WARMING TREND. THIS IS DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE RIDGE
WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AT DAY 7 OR BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KLBF VICINITY AFTER 00Z.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 00Z AFFECTING KVTN. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH STRATUS SETTLING IN. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 15Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004-094.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE
PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED SEVERAL WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR THE
TODAY PERIOD INCLUDING EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO MOST
MOUNTAINS BASED ON THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FIELD AND A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL WEAK CIRCULATION THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING WHERE WINDS WERE STILL
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER, OTHER THAN
LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE
TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LOCAL MESONET DATA CURRENTLY
IS SHOWING WINDS AT NEARLY EVERY DIRECTION. THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PERIOD WILL BE 17-20Z WHEN MODELS SHOW WIND DIRECTION FAVORING A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION UP TO 8 KTS. AFTER 20-21Z, MODELS AGREE THAT
WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CEILING AOA 8K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POCKETS OF STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY,
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...225 AM PDT...
.SHORT TERM... THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 40 MPH ACROSS WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE AREA AT 3AM...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 523 UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THOSE GUSTY WINDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER
WIND CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER
DYNAMICS TO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE DOWN AROUND 5000 FEET...BUT WITH THE
COLD POOL BASICALLY CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE START OF A WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH THAT IS POISED
TO DEVELOP AFTER THE MAIN LOW EXITS THE REGION MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING MUCH OF THE REGION IN A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
...ESPECIALLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAYS WIND
EVENT...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN WATER RECREATION IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
THE SECOND UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...GIVING WAY TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
RESULTING IN BENIGN WEATHER AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. TO
GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON HOW QUICKLY WE WILL WARM UP...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES
QUICKLY DEGRADE IN QUALITY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ONLY
CURRENT CONSISTENT SIGNALS POINTING TOWARD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET WILL BE KEY IN WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH OUR WEATHER...WITH AT
LEAST ONE SOLUTION POINTING AT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED!
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...SALMEN
PREV DISC...
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PULLIN
AVIATION...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
20S THIS EVENING (TEENS NW PA). WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
LATER AND AS WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO PICK UP...EVEN A FEW KNOTS...
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF OR BEGIN TO RISE A BIT...MAINLY WEST OF
I-71 AND NEAR THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...ALSO BEING HELPED AS SOME
CIRRUS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EAST AND
NEAR FREEZING WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME
MID CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL PICK UP. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR +8C IN THE WEST...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
EASILY RUN INTO THE 60S...NEAR 60 FOR NORTHWEST PA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF GULF MOISTURE WITH A
BUILDING JET ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AND INCREASING
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA FOR A WHILE BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS HAVE GOTTEN STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH THE
FORECAST OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY.
IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME EXACTLY HOW THE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT ON
THURSDAY... WHETHER THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST AND THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...OR IF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL JUST CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP. THE FORECAST WILL BE
A BIT VAGUE FOR THE TIME BEING WITH GENERALLY HIGH POPS. THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE GET MUCH/IF ANY DRY
WEATHER. WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 60S. WE COULD TAKE A RUN AT 70 OR BETTER IF IT WERE TO BECOME DRY
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO NEED A WIND ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR NORTHWEST OH.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
POINT.
LOOKS TO ME AS THOUGH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT COULD TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE A RAINY DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE YET ANOTHER TROUGH TO DEEPEN IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PUSH EAST THE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MID WEEK.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED PERIODS APPEAR THEY WILL BE ACTIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS DOUBLE LOW PRESSURE PINWHEELS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND THEN TO MAINE BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SEND COLDER AIR SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SEND A STREAM OF
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EVEN THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY COLD SO WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL RAP UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE LAKE
BUT THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS DROP
OFF CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GALES APPEAR LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS APPROACH 40 KNOTS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BELOW
GALES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
20S THIS EVENING (TEENS NW PA). WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
LATER AND AS WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO PICK UP...EVEN A FEW KNOTS...
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF OR BEGIN TO RISE A BIT...MAINLY WEST
OF I-71 AND NEAR THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S EAST AND NEAR FREEZING WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME
MID CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL PICK UP. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR +8C IN THE WEST...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
EASILY RUN INTO THE 60S...NEAR 60 FOR NORTHWEST PA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF GULF MOISTURE WITH A
BUILDING JET ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AND INCREASING
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA FOR A WHILE BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS HAVE GOTTEN STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH THE
FORECAST OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY.
IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME EXACTLY HOW THE WEATHER WILL PLAY OUT ON
THURSDAY... WHETHER THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST AND THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...OR IF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL JUST CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP. THE FORECAST WILL BE
A BIT VAGUE FOR THE TIME BEING WITH GENERALLY HIGH POPS. THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE GET MUCH/IF ANY DRY
WEATHER. WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 60S. WE COULD TAKE A RUN AT 70 OR BETTER IF IT WERE TO BECOME DRY
WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO NEED A WIND ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR NORTHWEST OH.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
POINT.
LOOKS TO ME AS THOUGH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT COULD TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE A RAINY DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE YET ANOTHER TROUGH TO DEEPEN IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PUSH EAST THE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MID WEEK.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED PERIODS APPEAR THEY WILL BE ACTIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS DOUBLE LOW PRESSURE PINWHEELS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND THEN TO MAINE BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SEND COLDER AIR SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SEND A STREAM OF
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EVEN THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY COLD SO WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL RAP UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE LAKE
BUT THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS DROP
OFF CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GALES APPEAR LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS APPROACH 40 KNOTS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BELOW
GALES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES
THURSDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE
TEMPERATURES.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE DRY WEATHER AS FIRE DANGER INCREASES AGAIN IN A
LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE WILL BRING LOWER RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTER DECENT
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT FROM COLD LOWS. TWO FACTORS TO WATCH ARE THE
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT BELOW 850MB DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE POINTS TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WHERE MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR MAY NOT BE AS
EFFECTIVE...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER...AND RH
VALUES UP SLIGHTLY. ALSO...WITH THE CIRRUS INCREASING GRADUALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO...RH
VALUES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST OVER THE KANAWHA VALLEY...TUG
VALLEY...AND TRI STATE AREA.
USING PRIMARILY THE NAM FOR WINDS...WHICH TEND TO BE ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE...SHOULD SEE 15-20KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION.
AGAIN...SEVERAL FACTORS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WED NT...PICKING UP
SRN STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF IT. THIS INCREASES MOISTURE...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...DRIVEN
MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FORCING.
THE S/W TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THU...AS ANOTHER
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
NONETHELESS...STRONG INFLOW OUT OF THE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THU AS A WEAKENING
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT / PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS. RUC MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KTS THU AFTERNOON...KEPT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR LESS IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW. THE STRONG MOIST FLOW IN A MODEST NARROW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
ALSO WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INHERITED IN THE FCST.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE FCST AREA THU NT...DRIVEN BY THE
SECOND S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE W AS A RESULT. THE SECOND S/W CROSSES FRI. KEPT
BUT SLOWED THE DEPICTION OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE ON FRI CODED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BY NT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WED AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20S...SO A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WED AFTERNOON. RIDGES WARM WED NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY 00Z SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY STILL AFFECTING THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE EXITING EAST. WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...KEEPING COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO THAT BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN SECTION THAT COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. THEREFORE...CODED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS NUMBERS FOR
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AVIATION FORECAST. 15-20KT GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH A
WIND SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. USED VFR LINES IN THE TAF TO
REFLECT THE WIND SWITCHES DESPITE THE SHIFT OCCURRING BELOW 10KT
THRESHOLDS.
CIRRUS INCREASES WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH NO
CEILING BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR IN RAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSES THURSDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. FLOW
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE
TEMPERATURES.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE DRY WEATHER AS FIRE DANGER INCREASES AGAIN IN A
LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE WILL BRING LOWER RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTER DECENT
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT FROM COLD LOWS. TWO FACTORS TO WATCH ARE THE
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT BELOW 850MB DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE POINTS TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WHERE MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR MAY NOT BE AS
EFFECTIVE...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER...AND RH
VALUES UP SLIGHTLY. ALSO...WITH THE CIRRUS INCREASING GRADUALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO...RH
VALUES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST OVER THE KANAWHA VALLEY...TUG
VALLEY...AND TRI STATE AREA.
USING PRIMARILY THE NAM FOR WINDS...WHICH TEND TO BE ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE...SHOULD SEE 15-20KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION.
AGAIN...SEVERAL FACTORS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OF THE AREA WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSES. THIS SPELLS DRY WX WITH GOOD MIXING.
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W WED NT...PICKING UP
SRN STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF IT. THIS INCREASES MOISTURE...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...DRIVEN
MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FORCING.
THE S/W TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THU...AS ANOTHER
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
NONETHELESS...STRONG INFLOW OUT OF THE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THU AS A WEAKENING
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT / PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC
WINDS. RUC MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHM SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KTS THU AFTERNOON...KEPT GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR LESS IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW. THE STRONG MOIST FLOW IN A MODEST NARROW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
ALSO WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INHERITED IN THE FCST.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE FCST AREA THU NT...DRIVEN BY THE
SECOND S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE W AS A RESULT. THE SECOND S/W CROSSES FRI. KEPT
BUT SLOWED THE DEPICTION OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE ON FRI CODED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER FEATURE BUT PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND
ANY TRAINING SHOULD BE BRIEF.
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BY NT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WED AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20S...SO A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WED AFTERNOON. RIDGES WARM WED NT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE CROSSING THURSDAY AND THE
SECOND ONE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A LOW SFC BASED
CAPE...HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FACT THAT THE FRONT
PASSES AT NIGHT MAKE ME BELIEVE IT WILL LOOSE DIURNAL HEATING
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE...CODED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AVIATION FORECAST. 15-20KT GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH A
WIND SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. USED VFR LINES IN THE TAF TO
REFLECT THE WIND SWITCHES DESPITE THE SHIFT OCCURRING BELOW 10KT
THRESHOLDS.
CIRRUS INCREASES WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH NO
CEILING BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
POSSIBLE IFR IN RAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1251 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WAS
THINNING. LOOKING AT SOME WEB CAMS...IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS
ARE SEEING AT LEAST IN AND OUT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SLOWLY WARM AND WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING MIXED
LAYER...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX AWAY THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SKY FORECAST TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST...EVERYONE SHOULD BE CLEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTHWEST PA TO
AROUND 50/LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IS WILL BE SUNNY ALL
DAY. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO RESUME ACROSS THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
ABOUT A 10 DEGREE WARM UP AT 850 MB FROM 00Z WED THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. AFTER TEMPS TONIGHT GET BACK DOWN TO FREEZING...READINGS WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE NEXT LOW. THE
LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE S00 AT 12Z THURSDAY.
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST AFTER DARK TOMORROW AND THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REASON WHY NOT TO STICK
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS TO KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS. TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY AND
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. LI`S
BRIEFLY GET BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP SO WILL
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER VERY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB TEMPS GETTING
AS COLD AS NEG 6 FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. HAVE STAYED PRETTY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN THE CHANGING AIRMASSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A COOL STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WE MAY VERY WELL
WARM UP ADEQUATELY ON SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH A GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
AS COLD AS IT WAS ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT STILL H8 TEMPS
AROUND -12C TO -14C AT THE THERMAL TROUGHS COLDEST POINT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME RA/SN SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT...BUT AS
THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO BE FURTHER FROM US SO IS
THE BETTER MOISTURE. WILL KEEP THE LINGERING 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST COME MONDAY...AS WE SLOWLY RECOVER FROM
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S NW
PA/MAYBE REACH 40 NE OH. FORTIES ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING WILL RAP UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED AND
ARE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY INCREASES TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY EVENING AND A LIGHTER
WEST FLOW FOLLOWS. A COLD FRONT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
859 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN A MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW. CHECKED
SEVERAL OBS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WHILE I COULD NOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, WE PROBABLY WON`T GET ANYTHING
MEASURABLE. THIS THOUGHT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
SHOWS NOTHING. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY LIGHT QPF THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS
LOWER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THE
DETAILS ON THIS ARE OUTLINE WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS ON THE WIND IMPACT. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BOTH KOTH AND KLMT COULD SEE SUSTAINED
WIND AROUND 30 KNOT. ELSEWHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH KMFR AND KRBG THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 21Z.
SHORT TERM MODELS BRING HIGHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ROSEBURG AREA
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND LCL IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER VFR OVERNIGHT. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT TUE 29 MAR 2016...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE START TIME OF 2 PM PDT DUE TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE
COAST. SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO FROM AROUND 5 TO 40 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST. A
LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE WAVE HEIGHT OF THIS SWELL TRAIN IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER 10 FEET. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH CHAOTIC BUT PERSISTENTLY MODERATE SEAS DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA TODAY. WINDS ARE
FAIRLY STRONG SURROUNDING THIS LOW WITH 700 MB WINDS NEAR 50 KT
EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY...AT NPWMFR...HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE KLAMATH
FALLS AND THE TULELAKE AREA. WINDS HAVE DE-COUPLED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT WITH THE STRONG LATE-MARCH SUN, EXPECT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED AND BREEZY AGAIN IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL 850 TEMPS ARE 4-5C HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY, SO WE SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OVER YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. THIS BRINGS MEDFORD AND
ROSEBURG INTO THE LOWER 60S AND KLAMATH FALLS AND ALTURAS INTO THE
LOWER 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY OVER THE EAST SIDE TODAY, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT.
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND THEN PUSHES INTO
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WITH DRY
AIR AND A CLEAR SKY, WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WE`RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND OFFSHORE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR ALL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES BRIEFLY OFFSHORE. HIGHS FROM REEDSPORT TO BROOKINGS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING INLAND,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST SIDE.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, SO WE EXPECT DRYING OVER THE RIDGES WITH A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A CHILLY MORNING CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT A SURGE OF STRATUS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND MARINE AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE COAST. STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE BEACHES, BUT IF NOT THURSDAY,
THEN CERTAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE COOLER DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WILL
BE OVER INLAND AREAS. SO, IT WILL BE WARM AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH MID
60S OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE
LONG TERM FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE REALLY WARM DAY ON FRIDAY
FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING TO THE
EAST FRIDAY, AND A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE, THIS FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN AT THE COAST FRIDAY, BUT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF US OVER THE WEEKEND AND OPEN THE DOOR TO
PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSUING SYSTEMS, SO WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH RAIN
OR SNOW, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO AROUND NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM OF ENOUGH SIGNIFICANCE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOON SUCH A SYSTEM ARRIVES. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL SHOWS ONE ON MONDAY, THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY, AND THE
CANADIAN WOULD HAVE RAIN BOTH DAYS. POPS FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST CLIMO. -WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029>031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$